Abnormal And Extraordinary Surprises

Posted on September 4, 2013 by Tom Trimbath

“It’s 5am. Wake up and look at the news.” It wasn’t the first time I’ve had a dream like that. Sure enough, MicroVision had just published a press release at 5am. I wasn’t very surprised. Okay, so maybe I’m a bit tuned into the market. The news was met with a short term spike that didn’t even exceed last week’s high, and then fell back. “How much credit card debt do you have?” That question came from a real person, and surprised me. Instead of being an intrusion, they had an intriguing proposal. They thought I might prefer paying interest to a friend instead of an institution. These are not normal events, which is appropriate, because life is no longer normal or ordinary. What comes next is probably abnormal or extraordinary or both.

Welcome to September 4, 2013, the day when many of us MVIS shareholders were watching for news from Sony and Samsung. Both companies were announcing new products. MicroVision has implied, or we have inferred, that five major companies will be announcing, or at least are working on, major products that will be announced within the next few quarters. We don’t know more, so we have to make up the rest. Not an ideal investment environment, but that’s where we stand. Waking up to such news would be a dream come true. Evidently my dream had a different idea. MicroVision’s press release wasn’t about a marvelous product launch. MicroVision’s press release was about “prototype” and “potential” and “evaluation” and “testing”. Yes, the news is associated with an unnamed “leading global Tier-One automotive supplier”; but, the investing community has seen so many similar MicroVision press releases that any exuberance quickly faded. The news actually is good, but with so many waffle words, pronouns, and ambiguities, there is nothing to evaluate.

The surprise from MicroVision may be the day they have quantifiable news, corroborated with a major customer’s product release, for something the public wants. We haven’t had that yet. Until then, we watch for product rumors and auspicious pronouncements. Did you hear the one about the iPhone 6? The iPhone6 may have “micromirror technology“, and may be released in December 2013. That sounds like MicroVision technology and timing that isn’t as good as the September 10th Apple event for what’s probably the iPhone 5C and 5S, which MVIS enthusiasts have discounted for some reason.

If Apple announces an i-anything with an Image by PicoP in every unit, then my portfolio may recover extraordinarily. Ordinarily, a recovery can be a return to the mean. MicroVision has the potential to take it to extraordinary levels. Then, withdrawing even a small slice will pay off my debts, and maybe even my entire mortgage. (One investor estimates MVIS’ worth as $1,200 – $1,500, and considers it to be conservative. My estimate is more modest, but $600 – $1,000 times a few hundred shares is enough to clear my mortage arrears, my mortgage principal, and even my credit card debt.)

Most of my friends and many people who only know me through this blog have offered innovative solutions to my mortgage and foreclosure situation. I may yet take advantage of one of those, though I don’t know which one yet. One surprise was learning that a buyer can’t rent my house back to me if they buy it as a short sale. A full price sale? Yes. A short sale? No. Someone probably abused the possibility and now thousands are denied that option. It is easy to focus on my mortgage issue because we are emotionally tied to our houses. Solve that issue and, even if there isn’t enough money for upkeep, at least there is undeniable shelter from the storms (one of which is coming in tomorrow.)

Asking about my credit card debt was a sign of insight. My credit card debt is only slightly less than my mortgage arrears, has a much higher interest rate, and is much less likely to be renegotiated or managed under state regulatory protections the way the mortgage is. Taking over the debt is far simpler too. My friend offered to loan me the money to pay off my balance, and then I’d owe them that much. The debt would still exist, but I could pay back at a much lower interest rate. I’d keep paying the debt down, a friend would get the money, they’d also get an interest rate above market, and many tensions would be eased – as long as I didn’t default on the loan.

The first surprise was the offer. Such things are normal. The second surprise was the realization that such things are abnormal. For folks with extra money, finding good interest income is difficult. For folks trying to get out of debt, finding low interest rates is difficult. The dividends offered by financial institutions are below historical norms. The interest rates charged by financial institutions are higher than is healthy. Take the financial institutions out of the story and find there’s a nice place to meet in the middle.

As much as the idea came as a surprise, I know others on the island who are stepping into either side of that role. Whidbey has its own branch of a Local Lending Network (and the only web site pointing to it has so much stuff on it that I can’t get it to load enough to verify the right link.) Look around. You may be surprised that some such network is in your neighborhood.

Be even more surprised, unless you’ve been following the progress of the Rolling Jubilee. Some extraordinary members of Occupy Wall Street noticed how major financial institutions buy up distressed debt at incredible discounts. They decided to do the same, and to do so with the debts of normal people. Evidently, $50 donated to them forgives $1,000 of debt. That’s surprising leverage. Another surprising aspect is that the movement is international. And surprisingly quiet. Maybe they’ve hit a roadblock. Maybe there’s no reason for them to buy advertising time. Maybe individuals will surprise the institutions and institute changes no official expects.

For more than a decade, I’ve been expecting MicroVision and MVIS to surprise me. The abnormally quiet response to their news about substantial (though incredibly vague) progress surprised me, but it or other news should lead to me comfortably paying off my debt, and if MVIS does well enough, then allowing me to help others pay off theirs whether through personal agreements, a local lending network, or a Rolling Jubilee. MicroVision’s success and me being debt-free may be abnormal and extraordinary – and would be a wonderful surprise.

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Be Human Make Mistakes

Posted on August 31, 2013 by Tom Trimbath

Oops. Mistakes will be made. How many mistakes can a person make in a life? It is undoubtedly greater than zero. Wednesday’s blog had a few. Some would say my recent financial turmoil is evidence that I’ve made my share. We try to avoid making too many mistakes, but trying to make none is the best way to make sure nothing gets done. Being careless about mistakes is one way to create the biggest mistakes. Whether it is personal finance, a project, or life the best way to make progress is to know that mistakes will be made, and that hopefully we’ll find ways to manage the consequences. The way we manage mistakes and misfortune probably does more to define our lives than our successes and completed plans.

My apologies to the mortgage industry. I forgot that the mortgage modification process changed several weeks ago. The massive piles of documentation that I described in Wednesday’s post have been reduced by something called Streamlining. It still looks like a lot of forms to me, but evidently it isn’t the deluge of paper and toner and postage that was required back in May. The fact that the package was delivered on the 26th, opened on the 27th, and was due on the 28th hasn’t changed. And the fact that I don’t have the money, yet, hasn’t changed. But at least the process is simpler. I made the mistake of avoiding the mistake of kicking off an anxiety attack. Opening the mortgage mail has not been a positive experience, and their mail and phone calls have induced emotional hangovers that last hours or days. My apologies for missing the potential good news that I can’t act upon, yet.

By the way, as I understand it, the streamlined process effectively is a low- or no- documentation mortgage; which, ironically, are the same types of mortgages that exacerbated the debt crisis a few years ago. It was even suggested that I could simply claim to have enough money, get my mortgage payments reduced about 30%, possibly forestall the foreclosure process indefinitely, and then hope the money showed up in time. Uh, no. I can’t do that. That would be a mistake, especially if the money didn’t arrive.

Most people want security. It’s how we end up with Patriot Acts, the TSA, and cameras watching every public place. Social Security sounded like a great idea, providing security during that second time of life when we’re less likely to be able to provide it for ourselves. Maybe that will still work out. In the meantime, every one is encouraged to provide for their own personal security through good careers, financial planning, and establishing a stable home life – the home as castle as security.

Jobs, investing, housing, etc. are all embarked upon based on guesses. I guessed that Boeing would design and build a second generation space shuttle or an advanced type of transport in the 80s or 90s, so I steered my career that way. Oops. Even though I got to work on Reusable Launch Vehicles and High Speed Commercial Transports, Boeing’s decision to stick to basics stuck my career plan into a box. I guessed that small cap stocks like MVIS would disconnect themselves from the market swings and command a premium as they launched disruptive technologies. That may prove true, but my current condition suggests it was a mistake. The stocks went down with the rest, didn’t come back up, and are experiencing the antithesis of a premium as they trade at about 20% of what I consider a rational conservative valuation. Home For Sale I bought my house on the guess that after a 15% drop in the asking price, and with 20% down, and with great potential in my remaining stocks, I could feel secure in my small house. Mistake.

I am very fortunate. Most of my mistakes are financial, possibly temporary, and may even not be mistakes after I practice a bit more patience. My career choice gave me a great diversity of experiences: technically, managerially, and culturally. My investments have been dramatic, and have provided me with phenomenal experiences and continue to contain great potential (which I hope is unleashed real soon.) My housing mistake hasn’t been a mistake, except financially, and that’s only if foreclosure happens before my financial recovery. This house has been my favorite home.

The aspect of my business that I enjoy the most is working with people who have ideas that they want to implement. What kind of plan can we put together that gets them where they want to go, and what other possibilities exist in case something doesn’t go the way we guessed it would?

Writers can polish a book for so long that they never publish. Financial plans can be adhered to so religiously that careers are clung to while life slips by. (That’s why my book, Dream. Invest. Live. isn’t just Invest. or Work.) Dream. Invest. Live. Meticulous details can be impressive and self-satisfying, but concentrating on them can distract from noticing the goal got closer on its own.

Books have errs, airors, er, typos. Portfolios will contain great ideas that were actually bad investments, which is why diversity is a good thing. Plans should be written in pencil instead of pen.

I don’t strive to make mistakes. I made that mistake once. Right after graduation I declared that I was going to make all of my mistakes before I was 25. That way I’d get them out of the way. Don’t young people have the cutest ideas? Looking back after another 25 years I could make the case that I didn’t make enough mistakes, even though I tried. Really, applying to Microsoft before 1985 and giving up my aerospace career could have been a really good idea. But, I didn’t want to risk making that particular mistake at the time.

My biggest mistakes haven’t been how I guarded my self against loss. My biggest mistakes have been not putting more energy into marvelous possibilities. I’ve lost tens of thousands of dollars on MVIS, if I sell. That is insignificant against the millions I could have gained if I had bought as much AOL (aka AMER) as I wanted. The same is true of SBUX, FFIV, and several other stocks that impressed me but that ran into my cautions.

Dancing, at least the way I do it, is a celebration of mistakes made into fun. As long as no one gets hurt, a missed step or an extra turn may create something to remember and repeat. Waltzes don’t have to be perfect to be perfect. What started out as one kind of dance, may become something new and better.

As any of us older than 25 know, some of our biggest mistakes may be what we say rather than what we do or mean. I have frequently confirmed that, at least verbally, my size 14 feet can fit in my mouth. Foot In Mouth Foot-in-mouth disease happens, and as we mature we learn to acknowledge and forgive those mistakes. The same leniency in the rest of our lives will release a lot of our stress. Be human. Make mistakes. That’s perfect.

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Houses And Jobs Again

Posted on August 28, 2013 by Tom Trimbath

Where’s a copier in this town? My poor copier is old and slow. Somewhere within walking distance of my office there should be a copier, but Langley isn’t the sort of town that has a Kinko’s. The foreclosure process requires many copies and heavy mailings; so, a solution must be found. The real solution ignores the bureaucracy. Find enough money and the money problems go away. That’s a better use of my time. Business is picking up, and I have an interview for an appealing job – and it’s lottery day. Hey, I’m doing whatever I can to resolve my solvency issues. They are important, but my solvency isn’t as important as my values – and frugality may provide a solution.

The mortgage company (really the mortgage servicer) did it again. They mailed me a package that arrived on the 26th. I didn’t pick up my mail until the 27th. They expect to receive a response by the 28th, not postmarked, but received. I do believe that approaches impossibility, especially considering that the package is slightly more documentation than is required to apply for a home mortgage. I suspect I won’t meet their deadline – unless they drive over here, bring a copier, and accept a receipt by hand. The last time I completed the package it involved four months of bills, years of taxes, and years of business records.  Copy those. Fill out the forms. Mail off the package, registered of course; then send another copy to the state approved counselor. I suspect the mediator will want a copy too.

A dear friend invited me in for morning tea. I relayed the story with that confused mix of a forehead of stress-strained muscles and a bemused smile at the absurdity of the situation. How can anyone read the body language that is filtered through such a mix? Well, evidently, good friends can see past the surface and touch the reality within. Thanks for the hug and the compassion – and the tea, of course.

I have a litany of optimisms. Every day provides reminders of what I can’t do, or haven’t done, because of lack of funds. Every time I run into that, I also replay a variation on the litany of what’s going well. Each of my Backup Plans provides hope. Stocks can recover, and there are more reasons why my portfolio should increase. Business can improve, and it has, and continues to grow. Massive passive income is possible from books and photos, and sales are up. Soft Rocks - Twelve Months at Cultus Bay My house could sell, which would be bittersweet; and Seattle’s market is booming, so maybe Whidbey can too. Windfalls happen. I could even get a job.

I could even get a job is right. Even though I’ve closed the Monthly Jobs Report, I continue to look. There are more people unemployed than there are jobs to fill, but there are jobs to fill; Some of them are the work that I’d do even if I wasn’t getting paid. I am a fan and a champion of people and ideas. There’s a lot of work to do helping them both flow. This afternoon I have an interview, the first in months. This time it is for the task of Program Director for the Whidbey Island Writers Association (NILA/WIWA), a group I’ve been a member of and advocate for since I moved to the island. That job, or any of the other island jobs I’ve applied for, would greatly ease those strained forehead muscles, let me un-defer much deferred maintenance, and maybe even help me pay all of my bills, not just the barest minimum.

The moot burden from the mail and the optimism for this afternoon’s interview bounce my emotions off two extremes. That’s what it is like to be under-employed in America. Our role in society is increasingly defined by money even as wealth and income inequality increase. The bounce between the two extremes is becoming more extreme. If I get a job that pays enough to qualify for a new mortgage I’ll feel wealthy. I also know that if I got a full-time job that fully exercised my professional background I could quickly rise into the realm at the other extreme, just as I was a bit more than a decade ago.

Money’s influence has become much more pronounced. If I fill out the forms and mail the package on time, but don’t have the money, they get the house. If I get the money there are so many ways to keep the house that the forms obviously aren’t as important. If I get the money and lose the house – well, I’ll have lost that house, my home; and I’m sure I’ll find another. Maybe I have to give up something to get something better.
Home For Sale
Thankfully, there appears to be a move towards redefining a life somewhere between the extremes. The creator of the now classic cartoon, Calvin and Hobbes, did a marvelous thing. He quit while he was ahead. He quit when he had enough. He quit because his values were more important than more money. He even recently created a new singular cartoon about redefining life, career, and goals.  He created and then stepped away from cherished work for something more important: family. He could have been worth millions more, but he found something more valuable.

I talk and write about frugality: respect for the people and resources around us. To make it more personal, I live a life that is evidently frugal because I’ve found personal values that I want to live by. And I do live by them as much as possible. It has been refreshing to realize that I lived by them when I was a millionaire, and live by them even after so much loss. Not as a goal, but as a consequence, my expenses are much lower (except for the mortgage.) Lowering expenses without lowering quality of life sounds logical. We live in an illogical world which is why it is difficult to witness so many people living lives of much higher expenses without much of an improvement in the quality of their lives. I actually need to increase my expenses because I have too many Dammed Plans, but much of that is temporary and readily resolved with just a bit more money.

It is easy to make fun of the folks who proudly state that they haven’t watched television in years, as if they are out-of-touch. Some of them, of course, have merely switched their viewing to YouTube or Netflix. (So writes a fan of The Daily Show and the Colbert Report.) But I have noticed that the less people watch mass media, the less they are influenced by ads, and the more likely they are to encounter the difference between marketing and their values. They begin to live their own lives rather than mimicking models and celebrities. Clothing choices may become overalls or bicycling tights instead of suits and evening wear. Lucky for me, I’m actually paid to pass along and manage such news to such people in my role as Information Manager for New Road Map Foundation. (Also the host for the Simple Living Forums.) I’m also fortunate enough to have moved to Whidbey where entire communities are built around a diverse set of values. Take your pick. I’m a moderate, which means I stand near the intersection of many of those societies. Good parties, stories, and conversations are easy to find. I’m glad I know them both in the real and virtual worlds.

I’m working hard to keep my house. I’m working hard to get a job. I’m working hard at the jobs I’ve already got, including my own business. Much of my day is driven by the money which is driven by jobs and housing, but much of my life is driven by living according to my values – and hopefully finding a way to do so sustainably or even to thrive amongst the community and people and place that I love. That’s a lot of work, but that’s what I really value.

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My Jobs Report Month 24

Posted on August 24, 2013 by Tom Trimbath

Cheers to all who’ve followed my job search. Your monthly vigil is over, not because I got a job but, because applying for jobs through ads and applications seems to be an anachronism – at least for middle-aged guys who semi-retired over a decade ago. The good news: US unemployment is down almost a full point from last year, GDP continues to “rise”, Apple will be releasing a new gadget in September. The bad news: I haven’t found a conventional job, my growing business still only pays half of my bills, and the mortgage calendar marks off a day per day. The reason to stop posting Jobs Reports: while hundreds of thousands are finding conventional employment, I haven’t and that may be a good thing.

The US Jobs report:

  • unemployment = 7.4% (July 2013), down from 8.2% (July 2012)
  • part time employment = steady at 8,245,000
  • discouraged workers = 988,000 (July 2013), up from 852,000 (July 2012)

My Jobs report summary:

  • jobs applied for: hundreds
  • interviews for part-time jobs: less than two dozen
  • interviews for full-time job: one (1) uno
  • jobs resulting from interviews: zero (0) nil none
  • most effective job search technique (which can only be measured by interviews, not offers): personal reference and drewslist
  • most time efficient job search technique (which can only be measured by interviews, not offers): personal reference and drewslist
  • only successful income generator: personal reference and consultation leading to part-time employment

I’m working seven days a week (Rule of 7), making about half of what I need. No job dominates the day, though there have been three or four major contenders. It is diversification, and also opportunity. Some jobs have deadlines. Tomorrow is the last day of managing the Whidbey Open Studio Tour‘s social media campaign. Others may not be permanent, but their targets are years away. Virtual museums are not created by whim. The bigger the job, the more opportunity for the job to grow. Partial support of an hour or two can grow to half-time or full-time if there are sufficient funds. (Anyone want to preserve the era of computers’ entry into the classroom, while also upping my billable hours?)

Some folks have passed along email congratulations that I’ve made it this far and am doing this well. It is easy to become discouraged and disenfranchised when unemployment goes on for months or years. Listen to the pundits blame the poor for being poor and be amazed if the poor don’t just feel like giving up. Full-time pundits usually have incomes that put them multiples above the poverty line. If they were ever poor they may have selective amnesia, or may recall an era that no longer exists. They recall a steamship era while we live in a world of airliners. I appreciate the congratulations, but I feel like a sailor bailing out a gallon of water for every two that pour in. Such boats can’t stay afloat forever unless something changes.

Change is what I focus on. Look at my work list. Task list August 2013 Those tasks are a shifting collection of skills and talents, titles and pay scales. I’m glad I have so much to work with. I’ve been endorsed for so many things on LinkedIn that they’ve asked me to delete a few before any more can be added. My goal now, is to develop some subset that pays me more than enough, that I enjoy more than enough, and that helps the world more than enough. Follow your passions. Well, my passions are for people and ideas. That’s why I so enjoy helping people develop plans, make decisions, and spread their message. I get paid for that, and usually save them money too.

Fortunately, the definition of enough is also changing. Changes in my lifestyle can decrease expenses. Improvements in my portfolio can reduce the reliance on income. (Hey Apple, are you going to make MVIS pop by using a MicroVision component, please?) The best jobs pay well, are engaging, and aren’t expensive to keep.

Those folks sending congratulations know about the change because they know how much worse things were a year ago. I didn’t even have a bucket to bail with back then. I was busy building it.

Opportunities are arising. My work for The Tour is complete on Sunday, but I’ve been asked to help an advocate (the noun) advocate (the verb) starting Monday. Within the last few weeks I’ve been asked to become a core member of two photography endeavours. February Reflects February Imagine my relief when they decided to collaborate and cooperate rather than compete. My first post for WhidbeyFocus’ blog should be published tomorrow. My next class with Whidbey Island Community Education Center starts September 5th. I have to restock my books that are selling so well at a local shop (Wander on Whidbey). And there are always three or four opportunities simply waiting for the return call to schedule that first conversation.

Whether through frustration with convention or simply an entrepreneurial spirit that must be expressed, I know others who are paying less attention to the unemployment numbers and more attention to their business. Biscotti? There’s a business in that. Innovative wallets? There’s a business there, too. How about a tiny house? Buy this one and help someone launch a career in building more. Cabin by Angela If I listed every person I knew who was trying something new I’d probably be better off providing a link to the island’s phone book.

My job search will continue, until it doesn’t have to. I’m certainly not limiting myself to the want ads and yet another edit of a resume that will only be read by robots. My best job has been developing myself, and my best benefit has been helping others with their development. No wonder there are so many consultants and coaches. It is fascinating, fun, mutually beneficial, and far less dependent on increasingly anachronistic convention.

As Wynn Allen says at the end of our Anacortes video; “Who knows where that may lead us?“

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Buying Back In

Posted on August 21, 2013 by Tom Trimbath

I haven’t done this in years. I bought a bit of hope. I bought a bit of stock. It was even MVIS. I hope that’s a good idea. Last week’s Early Harvest of selling some GERN met this week’s business receipts, leaving me with a bit of extra cash (though not enough to assuage the mortgage or the credit card balances.) One of the powers of money is that it can make more money. Rather than have the excess sit, waiting for the next bill, I decided to send it back to work, for at least a short while, by buying some stock. It goes against my normal strategy, but it’s worth a try. Good things can happen.

Most financial plans include an emergency fund. It is the backup in case of bad luck. Accidents happen, and one way to be prepared is to have that rainy-day fund sitting there, just in case. We discuss those funds as if they’ll never get touched. Witness here what happens when so much of the rest is gone that the emergency fund becomes the main fund. It happens. That’s why they exist. My plan had various pockets of emergency funds. My primary funds weren’t up to “enough”, but they were headed that way – until the Triple Whammy I’ve described elsewhere. Those primary funds have almost completely vanished over the last two years. What remains isn’t enough to pay the mortgage. For a while I tapped my IRA for the mortgage payments, but the primary stock (No More Dendreon) finally ran out, and so did my payments. Welcome to the world of approaching foreclosure.

My consulting business is up. Yay! (Need someone to help you make a decision or develop a plan?) But the revenues have to double before I can pay all of my bills solely from that work. The growth is good, and at this rate can hit that target in 2015. In the meantime though, there was a cash flow dip that had to be filled with the early harvest of some GERN stock from my IRA. Regardless of the way I keep my house, I am a tidy guy in many ways. I sold off a nice round number of shares which gave me a bit more money than the gap required.

The money was transferred to my regular brokerage account so I could more readily pay my bills; and as I went to it I paused. What would I do with an extra few hundred dollars? I haven’t had that dilemma in years. It was the proverbial money burning a hole in my pocket, though the money and the pocket were ditigal.
“Do not move unless it is to your advantage.” – lesson from karate and The Art of War.
I sat. I pondered. Then I remembered. Two years of financial turmoil, of wondering how I was going to encounter the monthly bill paying challenge, had trained me to concentrate on preservation of capital. It is easy to fall into habits and never step back out of the ruts they create. What did I do when my portfolio was healthier? I’d put the money to use.

Two hundred dollars aren’t much. I watch people walk by wearing that much on each foot. That’s a couple of fill-ups for my truck. (Its got a 26 gallon tank.) But, remembering back to my investing beginnings, two hundred dollars is about what I used to start many of my original holdings. It doesn’t take much to make it worth the effort. I already have enough for most of my other bills: insurance, utilities, food, gas, and even enough to pay down a bit of the credit card debt that I incurred as I anticipated a portfolio recovery. The difference is, when I started those positions I did so to create my emergency fund from which I have been drawing. Now, I am in the midst of that draw. Instead of investing with a decades mindset, I am investing with a months mindset.

The shorter the investment horizon, the more chance is involved. Any given day, MSFT may go up or down; but buying MSFT in 1986 and selling ten or fifteen years later got beyond noisy fluctuations in the market. Buy small companies and sell them when they are large takes a long time, isn’t a sure thing, but requires little work and can have great rewards. Check Figure L, page 233 in my book Dream. Invest. Live. for my personal performance. Dream. Invest. Live. Long Term Buy and Hold can work well. And did, until my book came out and the market crashed. (No, my book did not make the market crash.) At the other end of the investing spectrum are the day traders who aren’t investing in companies. Day traders buy stocks and rely on the fact that on any given day some stocks will go up 20%, 30%, or more. Buy low. Sell high. and get out of the market at the end of each day.

Between the two extremes exists a continuum. LTBH can experience over 2,000% gains, but it takes years of patience. Day-traders can experience 20% gains within a day, but it takes frenetic work and good luck. Investing over the course of weeks or months decreases the influence of luck and increases the consequences of company performance.

I bought MVIS because I believe they are in a critical phase of their transition. We shareholders do not know the precise timing, the customers, or the products that are to be announced; but, from what we’ve been able to discern there should be significant news within the next few months or quarters. Maybe we’ll even get news within the next few weeks. Products to be sold for Christmas have to be announced soon. Just like with my business, one or two major customers can suddenly create a significant cash cushion.

Within the next month Samsung and Sony are expected to announce new devices before Apple’s announcement of a new device on September 10. Therefore, within the next 20 days those three major OEMs are announcing products which could include pico-projectors like those invented by MicroVision. I didn’t buy a hundred shares of MVIS from certainty, but from a reasonably informed guess with an acceptable risk.

If the stock goes up, the investment was worth it as long as it at least paid for the taxes and the commission. If the stock goes down, those $200 will be reduced but probably not eliminated. If the stock goes nowhere, then I’ve at least opened a door that was otherwise locked.

As I described in the previous post, financial losses are most likely temporary losses of an abstraction, not a true loss (though that doesn’t appease my mortgage company). Of all the things we risk, many fear finances far more than real losses. One freedom I enjoy is the realization that if I buy a stock I can also sell it. The commitment lasts as long as I decide. The market may control the price but I control whether I decide to participate. As of today, I’ve decided to start participating again; maybe not the way I prefer, but at least in a way that reminds me that I am in control. I’m buying back in. (Okay, MVIS, do good things for all of us.)

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Losses And Opportunities

Posted on August 17, 2013 by Tom Trimbath

“Get that foot out of your mouth. That’s no way to dance.” Dancing is fun – and an excellent opportunity to put feet in the wrong place. Socializing while dancing provides more targets. Oops. Hopefully, there’s only a bit of embarrassment, and no great loss. Keep dancing and maybe no one will notice, or they’ll think you just made up a new move.

For the last few months, I’ve rented an office over a restaurant and within shouting distance of two coffeeshops. We’ve been in the middle of our summer drought, which means a lot of customers sitting outside enjoying the sunshine. I’m treated to hearing some of their orders and their responses. “But, I wanted the dressing on the side. Take it back and get it right.” A lot of emotion can be tied to some oil and vinegar.

For the last few years, I’ve been entering that phase of life when loss of life becomes sadly more common. Deep loves are lost. There is no chance to take it back and get it right. The healthiest response seems to be celebrate the best of what was, and continue on with proper respect. Within the space of a moment I can think of at least four people who have done that. Some losses were stretched out over months. Some happened in less than a second.
One candle
For the last couple of years, you faithful readers have witnessed my losses. We’ll set aside the relationship ones. Those stories are only told in person to the right people and over the right drink. Almost all of my public losses have been financial. Yes, those losses do provide an opportunity for emotions; and yes, I have had my share of dismay and frustration – but, I keep in mind that those losses are probably temporary. They are more significant than getting the wrong salad. They are far easier to recover from than true loss.

I’m told that I look like I am doing fine. Thanks folks. It might have something to do with optimism, or maybe just habit. I actually feel better than I have in years. I’ve lost hundreds of thousands of dollars – measured by the stock and real estate markets. I’ve traded away lots of stuff to make money to pay bills. (By the way, does anyone want to buy a Folbot that has a tiny leak?) DSCN1190 I’ve delayed repairs and maintenance on me and almost everything I own. I’ve even a lost a bit of faith in our basic institutions.

One reason I am doing fine is because of my optimism. One source of my optimism is my awareness that my losses, while real, may also be temporary. I continue to trust in the value of my house, my portfolio, my skills, my community, my friends, my philosophy, and my self. That is a lot of value and most those losses are based more on misperceptions or misunderstandings, not on anything irrecoverable.

Sometimes you have to give it up to get it back. Giving it up, or even just being aware of the possibility of loss, heightens the awareness of value. As I have given up comforts, most socializing, most of my plans and projects,  I’ve become more aware of which ones matter most, and which ones existed by habit.

My losses are revealing opportunities.

Without this, can I now do that? If my house sells, I can work from anywhere on the planet that has a good internet connection. But, I probably won’t because I keep finding more reasons to stay on the island. Without so much stuff to tend, I have more space and more time. If my kayak lost its parking space, I’d have room for another garden plot. (And another exercise in loss, or another opportunity to find a way to guard against slugs, bunnies, and deer.)

When financial comfort returns, I know that I’ll dance more, hike more, socialize more, read more, enjoy the arts more, enjoy my friends more. I also know the work I’d enjoy even if I wasn’t being paid; and if I got paid, I have a better idea of what I’d use the money for. Philanthropy happens.

Losses are painful. Opportunities are healing. And reality seems to bundle them in packages that we must receive, open, and deal with.

To those with irrecoverable loss, my sympathies. To those who have lost money, my hopes. To those whose salads aren’t exactly what they expected, my pity.

And to dancers whose feet didn’t end up where they expected, maybe that was a small mistake that was actually a good move. Now, with a bit more practice, and the right partner . . .  what an opportunity.

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Early Harvests

Posted on August 14, 2013 by Tom Trimbath

It is harvest time, a little early for harvest festivals, but gardeners are already trying to cook, freeze, can, dry, or give away crops that are coming in faster than they can eat them. That’s a good year. In lean years, harvesting is a reminder that optimism doesn’t always succeed. Good years or bad, harvesting has to happen because people have to eat. I sold stock today. It was an early harvest, but I’ve got bills to pay.

For everyone else on Whidbey, growing veggies seems to be natural. For me, the slugs and bunnies beat me to any harvest. My apple trees were looking good – until the deer cleared the fence and ate all of the leaves they could reach.

Silly human. I scoff at your fencing.

Silly human. I scoff at your fencing.

Two of the three trees are young and short and lost almost every leaf. From three trees I can find one apple. Fortunately, my friends are better gardeners. Ten months of rain, a delayed start to the growing season, then two months of long, dry days. The corn may not be knee high by the Fourth of July, but there’s a bounty here eventually.

On the south half of Whidbey, which has fewer folks than some neighborhoods in Seattle, there are uncounted U-pic fields, farm stands, CSA‘s, and at least five farmers’ markets. Thursday (Clinton), Friday (Langley), Saturday (Bayview), and double-header Sunday (Tilth and Greenbank Farm) mean lots of fresh produce. Langley Second Street Market 060713 The local food bank even has its own garden, and a crew called the Gleeful Gleaners. The Gleaners harvest the fruits from neglected orchards or trees producing more than the owner can handle. The food bank benefits, and so do the gleaners and the land owners. I know their work from their gleaning of the apple trees on the land trust property I steward. WCLT - Hammons Tomorrow night I’ll help them at another site, and get to take some home too.

I’ve seen bountiful harvests in the stock market. The last two years have been lean for my portfolio, even as the market has recovered. The previous years were better for my portfolio, even as the market struggled. My portfolio is a bit of a micro-climate. Stocks in small companies are affected by the market, but the stronger effect is their own progress. That’s at least true in a rational market. As I’ve written before, I think small companies are trying to survive an irrational market even as the big companies drive the indices higher. I suspect the Fed quantitative easing and corporate profits are large sums of money that must find large roosts. Financial institutions make their lives easy by buying chunks of a few large companies instead of managing hundreds of smaller positions. Of course, the money could move around instead of roosting, in which case there would be even more purchasing and hiring going on; but hey, if the corporate finance officers can make more money in the market that’s where they’ll put the money.

Retirement is a concept that is being redefined regardless of how much we treat it as a fixed and necessary goal. For a variety of reasons, primarily strategic investing and frugal living, I was able to semi-retire early at 38. I knew it was a semi-retirement because a lot can happen in the decades of a normal lifespan following the first 38 years. Being the optimist and being frugal, I considered it an acceptable risk to step away from corporate work because the portfolio was large and growing. Being a realist, I also recognized the semi- part of that retirement and consequently worked at various aspects of my business these last 16 years. First karate, then writing, then photography, then teaching, and now my favorite – consulting.

Harvested - from Twelve Months at Cultus Bay

Harvested – from Twelve Months at Cultus Bay

It wasn’t until this year that my business grew enough to pay any of my bills. It has been years of building a foundation of work, connections, inventory, and on-the-job training in being a sole-proprietor and entrepreneur. I effectively was finding fertile ground, clearing it, and planting test crops. Every harvest of profits went back into improving the possibilities. With only a general strategy of providing a backup plan, I investigated opportunities as they volunteered. Even before I was hit by my Triple Whammy I’d started devoting more time to the business. I’ve continued to hope to harvest a healthy portfolio, but the stocks languish far below my estimates of their values. Now, I’m working seven days a week (as per my Rule of 7) with days off by necessity rather than choice. This feels like a version of the end of the Dust Bowl when dust storms and drought are somewhat related, continue to create a challenge, and yet may be about to abate.

My business is up 70% from last year, and last year was a record. At this rate, my business will cover my bills, including the mortgage, sometime in 2015. In the meantime, I’ve got bills to pay and have run into a cash flow squeeze. The only way to get through is to sell some stock (which is unfortunately coming out of my IRA). The good news about individual stocks is that as cash flow turns positive, I’ll be able to buy that stock back again – as long as it hasn’t jumped in the meantime.

Gardeners and farmers are familiar with the race between growing crops, changing weather, and ravening beasts. Grow quick. Hope for good weather. Fight back the hordes. I’m in a race as well. The business is growing and some of my stocks have possible significant near-term catalysts. The investing climate is incredibly uncertain between signs of a recovery and large cash hordes, while systemic failings in macro-economics are causes for concern. In the meantime, the next pre-foreclosure meeting is scheduled for October, followed by its scheduled events that can only be deterred by sufficient funds. Okay magic beans, grow, now!

Retirement planning can appear to be a set of spreadsheets that order a financial life. Retirement realities are that things can go better or worse than expected. I was so close to being debt-free as little as three years ago. Then the perfect storm hit. Storms happen, and that’s why gardeners and investors need to be flexible, have backup plans, and be tending fields and opportunities even if they may never be needed. It isn’t easy to harvest something early; especially, when you think it can grow much more if left alone. But I hope to replant. I hope for better weather. And I hope healthy harvests happen in time. I see it all around me. I know it happens.

Early apples and plums? Hmm, fruits can become desserts. I guess early harvests can actually be tasty.

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Odd Earnings News

Posted on August 10, 2013 by Tom Trimbath

That certainly didn’t go the way I expected. Sports have their seasons and so do corporations. Four times a year corporations officially announce their quarterly results. It is called the “earnings season”, but the official verbiage usually says “results” because “earnings” may not exist. Of the companies I follow (see my semi-annual exercise) all have had news. The reactions have been so surprising that I can’t convince myself of what my original expectations were. In the short term, stock investing can be a guessing game. In the long term, surprises should balance out and risk and guessing become less important. In the midst of my financial horse race, I could greatly benefit from good news and patience.

Before the slide that has been my portfolio since the Triple Whammy, my portfolio was diversified. At one point I had about a dozen stocks, which limited my exposure to losses from bad news from any one. Silly me. Almost seven years ago I “diversified” by selling some stock to make a large down payment on some real estate, my house. Another stock or two left the pack as I paid bills. Fortunately, just as my portfolio shrunk, one of my investments, Dendreon (DNDN) received FDA approval for a cancer vaccine. Yes! Then DNDN took part in the Triple Whammy, and I had to grudgingly sell it and a couple other stocks while I tried to find a job (unsuccessful so far) and sell my house (unsuccessful so far). Now, my portfolio has less than a half dozen stocks. Well, at least it is easier to track fewer positions.

I think this view is priceless, or $264,500.

I think this view is priceless, or $264,500.

With my semi-annual exercise in mind (when I review my investments), I expected:

  • AMSC to do nothing until the Chinese government decided what to do with Sinovel’s acquisition of AMSC’s intellectual property,
  • GERN to do nothing because they are only in phase two clinical trials, and using Dendreon as a guide suggests a stagnant stock for another year or two,
  • GIG should announce good news, and maybe finally get recognized for their market capture of a high-tech need,
  • MVIS could announce stellar news because they’ve already mentioned that five major customers will eventually announce major products
  • and,
  • RSOL might do well or not because, despite the need for renewable power, they are treated more as a construction firm or as a cousin of Solyndra.

Well, it didn’t go that way at all.

  • AMSC: Okay, I got this one right. They did have a spike when a US court ruled in their favor, but nothing to reflect the size of the potential settlement from China.
  • GERN: Biotech financials are almost moot because they all must spend immense amounts of cash to prove their drugs and please the FDA. But, GERN spiked because someone liked their phase two data well enough to suggest a 150% price appreciation.
  • GIG: GigOptix does have 50% of a high-end, and hopefully high profit margin, industry, yet the stock went nowhere because sales barely budged. But they did sneak in a possibility of working on consumer electronics. Hmm.
  • MVIS: MicroVision, the company that can make my mortgage company happy, managed to announce – nothing really. Yes, revenues were up and costs were down, but the numbers are small relative to what investors expect from a successful product.
  • RSOL: Real Goods, which is not stirring up any excitement, suddenly decided to merge with another company, and the stock spiked.

At one point on Friday, my portfolio was up by about one month’s non-mortgage living expenses. That’s encouraging.

I guessed wrong about what would move and what wouldn’t, but those were short term guesses. I continue to trust my semi-annual exercise results which estimate my portfolio’s value at several times above its current value. I could see results like Friday’s for months and just get back to what I consider a nominal, conservative valuation of my portfolio. That potential puts each day’s efforts into perspective because my average day’s income covers about a half a day’s expenses. Of course, I expect that to change too. Business is up, and the more consulting I do (got a project you want help with?), and the more passive income I receive from books and photos brings me closer to paying my bills without having to sell stocks.

my most recent sale

my most recent sale

Fortunately, I haven’t had to sell any stocks this year. I haven’t paid the mortgage either. Unfortunately, I might have to sell some this month, which would decrease my diversification. I almost sold some GERN a few days ago, and am glad I exercised a bit more patience. Friday’s impact on my GERN holding wouldn’t make much of difference in my bills. It is an encouragement to give GERN, and the others, a bit more patience.

Investing in individual stocks requires a high risk tolerance (or fatalism or good luck), patience, and a bit of research. Even with diversification and a Long Term Buy and Hold strategy, bad luck can coincide.

Investing in mutual funds is apparently easier, yet I don’t do that. I don’t do that because, as odd as individual stocks can be, mutual funds are nothing but dozens or hundreds of individual stocks. The task isn’t simpler. The task is so phenomenally complex that it is easier to ignore the complexity and slap on a label of simplicity.

My investments may be doing poorly, but at least I have an idea of why, and I have an idea of what they may be worth. Buy low. Sell high. Buy small companies. Sell when they become big companies.

As a measure of the irrationality of the market:

  • the company furthest from making money has the largest market cap (GERN),
  • the company with the highest revenues is three times smaller (RSOL),
  • the company with the next smallest price-to-sales has the smallest market cap (GIG), and
  • the company with the greatest present-value-of-future-revenues has the next smallest market cap.

A bit more patience, the right good news, and the results will turn into earnings and income.

By the way, in case you don’t recall, the stock I sold to buy my house is now up more than four-fold since then (FFIV); and Dendreon (DNDN), despite potentially revolutionizing cancer care, has managed to decrease sales and implode their stock price. It’s all so odd.

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Greener Pastures

Posted on August 7, 2013 by Tom Trimbath

“The grass is always greener on the other side of the fence.” That’s advice we give to convince someone to not change for the sake of change. I’m no rancher, but I suspect that if you leave a horse in one pasture long enough the grass will be gone and any other pasture is worth the move. Sometimes change is the answer. Deciding what to write about was tougher than usual today because almost everything that is happening is waiting for a change. In the meantime, we paw our pens, waiting for the gate to open. A lot of my friends that feel penned in know their gates are about to open. It will be fun watching the herd run.

A $425,000,000 Powerball lottery is not the main change most are waiting for, because I suspect very few of my friends will play such long odds. I and a few others do. Constrained finances are probably a main cause of people feeling hobbled. I can attest to the feeling of entrapment when nothing seems to be working enough to make enough. The entrapment is internal and abstract, so it should be easy to dispel; but if shifting such a mindset was easy then enlightenment would be universal as we all simply “saw beyond the illusion” or “embraced the grace within.” Counselors, coaches, and therapists earn substantial livings helping people struggle with even tangential aspects of such concepts. A two dollar ticket is much cheaper and gives the mind an excuse to see beyond the gate. Besides, as entertainment, the effects last longer than a movie. And eventually, someone will win.

Of all the plans for changes I’ve heard, all require far less than a lottery jackpot. Six months of living expenses and a reasonable chance of making a sustainable income are sufficient. Unfortunately, the last few years have diminished most of those savings and launching into new careers has a recent history of low chances of success. And yet, people are moving.

The most public move is from a friend who made a house on wheels. Angela Ramseyer, tiny house builder extraordinaire, might be selling her house, moving from Whidbey to Portland, and immersing herself in the growing micro-mansion industry. She’s made such a move before. She can do so again. Cabin by Angela

A couple I know have felt locked in place for years, even as they dream of moving east (it’s hard to move farther west from here) to live a more unrestrained, frugal lifestyle that probably involves organic, sustainable farming, online sales, and a lot more quiet and freedom. Seattle’s housing market is bubbling. Fix up the house, sell the business, and move – but first fix the kitchen and take the time to figure out how to make such a change.

One of my friends who works retail is set on NYC. Like any small community, Whidbey is known for having limited social (dating) and job options. Work retail here, maybe get by, and do so within a crowd of friends but no partner; or move to New York City. Evidently, they have retail there too, may appreciate a person with manners (or maybe not depending on the stereotype), and there may even be more than a dozen or so people to date. (Wasn’t there a show about sex in that city?) That change may require no more than a deep breath and a fast jump.

A close friend dropped by my office here in downtown Langley, center of coffeeshops and bookstores, and threatened to conduct an intervention. UBCC 070613 “Isn’t it obvious that you should move off the island? Here you may, may, sustain a lifestyle. Anywhere else you may thrive!” Well, yep. Makes sense to me. As I’ve said before, without the house, I’m able to move almost anywhere. I’ve even applied for international jobs. Even a move as small as getting back onto the mainland may suffice. Evidently, some employers won’t hire people from the islands because of the ferry interruptions. Ah, but you see, I actually like and love where I am. (One advisor advised me to visualize the zip code I wanted to live within. Duh. I’m already there.)

November Sunset - Twelve Months at Cultus Bay

November Sunset – Twelve Months at Cultus Bay

Change for the sake of change is ill-advised. One saying I learned from karate is, “Do not move unless it is to your advantage to do so. Then move without hesitation.” Plans must accommodate change. We demonstrate wisdom when we decide whether the change is based on need, or whim, or want, or habit.

Many of the world’s problems can be traced to intransigent attitudes, archaic policies, and anachronistic organizations. Our society gets into ruts, just like we do. Fixed financial plans, reliance on conventional systems, and unedited aspirations can lead to dead-ends. I’ve followed an investment strategy that relied on rational markets and aimed myself at a particular lifestyle, but my current situation has encouraged me to rethink my strategy, question how much rational thought remains in the market, and revise my lifestyle expectations. If the world decides to change, then I can change again.

I’ve definitely been churning up this pasture. Trying to get a job, putting my house on the market, growing my business have all been efforts to affect change. I’ve also been staying in this pasture. The interruption in my strategy may be temporary. One of the best ways to be found is to stay in one place. And I have yet to identify an advantage to moving that is greater than the advantages to staying.

It is August 7th. Tomorrow MicroVision announces earnings. The expectations are so low that even the discussion boards are quiet. And yet many of us have inferred that the company’s long delayed success will be initiated with news in the second half of 2013. (Go back to Good News Sooner Please for a description of that possible upside.) When MicroVision announces sufficiently positive news, the grass under my feet will grow faster than any nearby pasture – unless, of course, that other pasture is winning the Powerball jackpot in which case it won’t be grass growing under my feet but forests.

What are the chances that all of that will happen? Understandably small. What are the chances that none of it will happen? I suspect even smaller. For now, it is time to get back to tending my pasture and checking over the fence whenever I get the chance.

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Triple Whammy Second Anniversary

Posted on August 3, 2013 by Tom Trimbath

Some anniversaries aren’t celebrated, but can be recognized. Two years ago I felt like I was hit by a Triple Whammy. As I said then, “my semi-sustainable lifestyle is at least temporarily threatened“. I re-read that post and am pondering the nature of the word “temporary”. Throughout these two years the potential for my closing thought from that blog continues. “I give the universe the opportunity to positively amaze me.” The pessimist says it won’t. The optimist says that every day of delay increases the positivity of the eventual amazement. Now would be a good time, and not just for me.

The last two years have made real a perspective I understood as an abstraction. Having less than enough is tough. That’s a major understatement. Many of life’s crises are traumatic and dynamic. Not having enough isn’t as dynamic but it is a moment-by-moment reminder that you can’t pay the entry fee to participate in our society. As I have found myself more frequently standing outside the gates of opportunities, I’ve been amazed to see the crowd of remarkable people who’ve been there for years. My attitude has gone from, “We really ought to do something about people who’ve been hit by misfortune” to “Who do we think we are if we’re not helping those who’ve been hit by misfortune?” Many of our “greatest nation” cliches are amazingly hollow; especially, when compared to “lesser” countries that are far smaller.

A friend asked the most frequent question yet again. “How are you doing? No, really. How are you doing?” My first quip of a response didn’t appease. This friend actually is one of the few that I’ll tell the fuller story to, but being asked in the middle of the grocery store wasn’t the place for me to launch into the real response. How am I doing? Any given day I encounter a wider range of emotions than I could when I had “enough”. I’m somewhat practiced with words, and I can’t convey the radically different experience. Demonstrating it through dance might succeed, but bouncing off the rutabagas would probably curtail my creative expression.

My reason for writing this is not to belabor my situation, but to illuminate what can happen to any of us. I know many who have lost much more; they’re just not as likely to talk about it. Shame, embarrassment, and truth live behind many facades.

My reason for writing this is also to emphasize the possibilities. While our society no longer provides enough safety nets for its citizens, the American form of government continues to provide opportunity and empowerment.

Chronicling this experience may be the best way to illustrate how our society, government, and civilization actually work.

For brevity, those who don’t want to hear the rest of the downside can skip ahead a paragraph. For completeness in my chronicling, welcome to the improbable litany of the last two years. A little more than two years ago, AMSC was a major portion of my portfolio, and had good reason to rise. They profit from alternative energies and from improving our power infrastructure – until their largest customer apparently stole AMSC’s intellectual property and cancelled their orders. AMSC dropped from over $40 to under $3. Wham. Dendreon (DNDN) looked like it would make up the difference because their cancer vaccine was approved and working better than expected medically; but, the company didn’t meet Wall Street’s expectations. The ~40% drop in DNDN was a bigger whammy. A stock that I thought would rise $22 dropped $22 and continued to fall. Instead of being out of debt, I found myself selling a decreasing stock from a diminishing portfolio, even as the treatment improved. I started looking for a job that month, August 2011. I thought the stock would recover quickly, and therefore put a few extra bills on credit, which became the stereotypical trap. I sold almost all of my non-IRA stock to pay bills, and then dipped into my IRA. I put my house on the market because it was the most likely source of equity, according to zillow.com. With my non-IRA stocks almost all gone, I finally quit paying the mortgage when the last of the DNDN sold out of my IRA. That was in the fall of 2012. My mortgager is not pleased. The third part of the whammy was actually a flounder. The whammy was the emotional hit I took when I realized that MicroVision (MVIS) wasn’t going to have their self-proclaimed “Super Bowl year” in 2011, 2012, (2013?). MVIS continues to languish at about a quarter of what it was then, which was also a drop from – well – much higher. While all of this was going on I ramped up my existing business. My Rule of 7 applied and eventually I was working seven days a week finishing my book about Scotland, completing a five-year photo essay of Whidbey Island, teaching classes, consulting with clients, and doing whatever I could to make money. My portfolio is about a tenth of what it was. My house has had less then six buyers even visit it in the year that it’s been on the market. I’ve only had one job interview for a full-time professional job, despite two years of applying. My pantry and freezer have a lot of empty space, and I’ve even been able to clear out a room because I’ve been selling my stuff. Being a bit discouraged shouldn’t be much of a surprise, and if you actually read through this entire paragraph I applaud your perseverance.

Here’s the upside. Things are looking better. My business is up 70% from last year. (Hi, want help with your projects? An hour or two with me may save you weeks or months.) Book sales are up, thanks to Walking Thinking Drinking Across Scotland. Walking Thinking Drinking Across Scotland Photo sales are up, thanks to my new online galleries (Gratitude Gallery

and Fine Art America). At this rate, my business will be able to pay my bills in 2015, not soon enough, but not bad either. The Puget Sound housing market is improving. Some of the work I’m doing for clients could turn into more hours, better pay, or even full time employment. My name recognition is high, and so many people have endorsed me on LinkedIn that I’ve maxed out the number of talents I’m allowed to display. And, despite the lack of DNDN, the companies in my portfolio have progressed to the point that even a return to conservative valuations will provide me years of living expenses. If companies like MicroVision succeed and trade at a premium my portfolio will provide decades of living expenses.

Two years is a long time (and so is this post). I wonder how much longer all of this can go on.

There are no guarantees. The elements within my situation are running at about the same pace. I’m living a race in which I am largely a spectator because most of the entrants are out of my control. Without guarantees, I don’t know which happens first: running out of money, or returning to comfortably enough.

The lack of control increases the frustration. One criterion for evaluating the functionality of a workplace is whether the people with responsibility are also given the appropriate authority, and whether people with authority also carry responsibility. Authority without responsibility is the life of the spoiled child. Responsibility without authority is the life of the scapegoat. Our treatment of the misfortunate is more the latter, and evident in the news. Excessive executive compensation in the midst of atrocious performance is an example of the former. What I look forward to is a return to that middle ground, which also embodied our stereotypical American spirit: a more rational world where value is valued, and that value reflects a person’s effort and also the fact that they are a person.

Stay tuned, and thanks for reading. Really, we’re getting to the good stuff, honest. (I hope, I hope, I hope.)

Destiny Is Hidden

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