Retiring One Percent

Are you part of the 1%? How about the 10%? I don’t dwell on it. A person is a person, regardless of their money. Power within society correlates with money, but Gandhi proved that wasn’t an absolute. Extreme inequities aren’t healthy for a society, but a person’s personality and humanity is within their power. What I do dwell on, or at least notice, is how money drives lives. How much money is required to drive a life?

Back in April I posted a quick note about a popular video that describes wealth inequity in America. Subsequently there are videos about wealth inequity in the UK and the world. Wealth inequity is common and international.

As a fan of history, that’s not too much of a surprise. I’d like to see the same video for feudal times: peasants versus royalty. Maybe even before there was money there were inequities between the number of cattle owned by the chief versus his minions.

To me, it helps to put such abstractions into real terms. I’ll skip using the word billion because some people in Europe seem to think a billion means something other than what us Yanks think. $1,000,000,000 is a lot of money. Very few people have net worths in excess of that. Out of a population of about 7,189,420,000 (and it is changing all the time) there are only 1426 “billionaires”. (Okay I had to use the name because Forbes used the name.) They are the top 0.00002%. They live in a world so hard to comprehend that the best example I’ve seen is in yet another video. Pardon the language but he does a good job of making the point of how much is 1000 million.


Reality is the same for all of us. As a general rule, people want to live long and prosper. (Thank you Spock and Gene Roddenberry.) That means the basics of food, water, health, et al. The degree of comfort that goes with those necessities can cross the line to luxuries which can increase the total, but the necessities can be quite low. Ask any person who is frugal by choice or necessity.

I’ve seen some amazing examples of retirement plans. Complex formulae anticipating things that can’t be anticipated. Contingencies layered on redundancies. The requisite savings can be estimated in the millions. That’s getting close to 1% country, which makes the case that very few people will ever be able to retire. I know too many people who are certain that they’ll have to work until they die, the ultimate retirement.

We in the developed world are wealthy. My recent experience is evidence that chance can work against any plan (and the optimist in me has confidence in my financial recovery). I wasn’t in the 1%, but I was probably in the 6%. Even a frugal life wasn’t enough to withstand an economic implosion. But my experience inspires one scenario that is overly simplistic yet illustrative.

If at the height of my previous net worth I’d cashed out everything, didn’t reinvest any of it, and simply paid my bills and lived frugally, I’d have about 20 years of cash left. That’s without having to work seven days a week as I’ve been doing, and I wouldn’t have run into foreclosure. I also would’ve missed out on a lot of opportunities, but hindsight suggests “cash in the mattress” would’ve been a better choice.

The real answer is somewhere in the middle. (Here’s where I must put in a plug for the New Road Map Foundation and the Financial Integrity Program.) NRM logo Cash in the mattress only looks good in retrospect. I looked forward to growing my wealth and enjoying comfortable frugality and significant innovation and philanthropy. Oh well, maybe next year.

To my many friends who are agonizing over retirement plans and who are checking every assumption and contingency, I at least suggest that you perform a simple calculation as a baseline. How much do you need to spend, and how long to you expect to be spending it? You may find that you already have more than enough, and that rather than worrying about stocks and hedge funds you can be enjoying more free time and maybe more philanthropy. Time is too precious and life is ever-passing. Don’t waste either if you’ve even got a chance at having enough money.

And if you are in the 1% or the 0.00002% and spending every day worrying about wealth and power, you have my sympathy.

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Money And Life And Priorities

Posting past 9pm seems to be my new norm for this blog. Tonight’s schedule is set by something completely different, yet familiar. A dear friend had an accident and broke a wrist and an arm, and I have the honor and privilege of the title of primary caregiver. Sound familiar? Check back to last year’s blog post, Health And Wealth, when I took a friend to the hospital because she broke her wrist. I won’t go into details because, as much as I am open about my money and my life, I equally respect others privacy. Money and Life are described as a balancing act, but the fact that they are even closely considered is a sign that modern priorities are skewed. Privacy is important. Money and Life, Wealth and Health, are mirrored trades that have the most important words last: Life, Health.

As far as the incident and the implication goes, last year’s story could be pasted into this year’s story. The topic then was the affordability of health care, how wealth affects health. The main added public element is ObamaCare, the Affordable Care Act, the bane of a portion of the Republican Party. Despite all of the debate, the bill’s impact is unknown, even as I watched a real life incident unfold. Even if health care is more affordable, it is affordable enough? I don’t think anyone knows.

Recent readers know how busy I have been. All of the debates were shoved aside. Appointments, meetings, other obligations become reasons for apologetic emails and phone messages.

Many people debate flaws in our economy, or discuss the designs for alternatives; but those are still abstractions designed for abstractions layered over the necessities of life. Many people comment on solutions. I find myself drawn to those who touch necessities. A video of a pundit backdropped by mahogany bookcases is much less appealing and credible than a video of a person backdropped by a place that’s obviously not an office. Theory is a wonderful mental exercise, but when it is time to get something done listen to someone who’s done something, and if the situation is dynamic enough listen to someone who is doing something. Yesterday’s lessons may not apply today. Just ask any young person who tried to follow conventional wisdom about getting a job based on a college degree, who has now found that the cost of education and the resultant debt can’t be addressed by today’s job opportunities.

I find more insight from friends who have set up small scale farms, or are trying to develop sustainable businesses, or are going off-grid and walking away from convention and towards innovation and individualized solutions. Their stories carry far more weight than Nobel Prizes or PhDs. I can learn more a friend growing kale than I can learn from the Secretary of Agriculture.

The doctors, nurses, and myriad of other titles carried by the people that cared for my friend rarely focused on the money. They calmly, professionally, and competently focused on the highest priority of life. I was there for an unfortunate reason, but heartened to witness caring without judgment repeated to yet another collection of unfortunate strangers. They were a great reminder of what is real and what is necessary. They cared about life.

My priority now is to close this email and exercise some self-care. Maybe a snack. Maybe a bit of reading. Every moment is one moment closer to my friend returning to full recovery. Business will be rearranged. Interruptions happen. Reasonable people understand that. I am glad I know reasonable people. Pardon me as I check my priorities. Sleep. Yup. That’s a priority.

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Looking Better

How easy is it to hide stress? Not as easy as I thought. Evidently, I’ve been hiding it from myself; and evidently, I’m getting much better. Thank you to my neighbor for being so observant. That’s one of the powers of supportive community: people who notice and care. Maybe more of that is a step towards what we really need.

Observations from friends:

  • You (Tom Trimbath) have not taken a day off since Labor Day.
  • Hey, Tom, your shoulders look more relaxed.
  • Nice to see that you don’t look nearly as tense anymore.

    biopic Aug13 tiny

    Stressed? Enthused? Both?

My initial response in each case: oblivious. My second response: Hey, I guess they’re right.

The oblivious part comes from being so busy and so focused on taking life day by day that I haven’t noticed the bigger changes, or even what happened last week. Finally, I found and was given the opportunity to make enough to pay the mortgage. Yea! Years, yes years, of trying to make up for a temporarily imploded portfolio nurtured a habit of working hard, especially on anything that reinforced that work with compensation. Now, I have more than enough work to do for two of my clients, and am dutifully tending to my other business ventures.

December's Arms

Got cards?

That sum is more than enough for a regular workweek. October is an intense overlap. November will be better, right? Okay, how about December?

As each check comes in I mentally assign it to some unpaid bill or deferred repair. It is obvious that years of deferred maintenance won’t be countered within a month. The internal urgency to book billable hours is partly to pay for the basics and to catch repairs before they become replacements, but also to show appreciation for the opportunity to be paid to work on things that I think need doing. I have more than enough incentive to work hard.

The intensity and the internal urgency make me aware of physical symptoms of stress to the point that I thought my stress level hadn’t changed from when I had less money than bills. And yet my stress must be diminishing. My friends tell me so.

Many people I know are in marathons. They can’t remember two days off in a row except for emergencies or family events. Especially for the growing population of people becoming entrepreneurs by necessity, every day off is a day without pay. The concept of paid vacations sounds abstract and laughable. So many people are covering from financial reversals that crowds are working at every welcome opportunity they find and barely taking time to breath. Some are aware enough to make sure they take walks and look at something besides computer screens.

The pessimist in me wonders if the intensity is because wealth and income inequities will continue, and that this is the new normal, at best.

The optimist in me hopes that the work is creating personal progress that is harder to see from inside than it is from outside; and that will eventually allow a greater ease.

The realist in me realizes that this post is being written at 9pm. I got a lot done today. I am particularly pleased with some of my work. And I am also aware that the dishes aren’t done. The laundry is tumbling in the dryer. The bed isn’t made (ha! futon couch because I sold the “real” couch months ago). But, the lawn was mowed (a necessity for a house that’s for sale) – thanks to a dear friend who loaned me a mower. Home For Sale The front was half-done as the sun was split by the horizon. The back was done after the street lights came on. How did I ever have time to watch that old technology called television?

Our finances, our environment, our philanthropic work, and for some folks our political climate are in such need of our efforts that all of our free time can be assigned and accounted for. But step back and ask around. Maybe we’ve made progress and don’t realize it. Maybe we should give ourselves a bit of a break. Maybe we should take a breather in the midst of this marathon called work and remember that we’re here to live a life. With a break or two we may be able to reflect and commend ourselves for our accomplishments, and may even look better when we start running again. We may look better. The world may look better.

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Cupcakes And Popcorn

Wednesday I posted about celebrating by buying a cupcake. Welcome to frugality, having a great appreciation for the simple things. That wasn’t the last celebration. GERN inspired one cupcake. RSOL inspired the next one the next day. Friday’s slight pullback actually felt like a healthy response, so I bought a macaroon. Tonight I might celebrate again, just for practice. How about a movie with buttered popcorn sprinkled with parmesan? As life becomes more complicated, simplify the celebrations.

It’s 8pm on a Saturday night. Oh yeah, I’m a party animal. Actually, I do enjoy parties, and it’s about time for another one, but Saturday at 8pm is when I’ve finally declared work and dinner done. A year ago I didn’t know where I’d find the money for my bills and mortgage. Now, I have the money and am hunting for the time. I suspect that comes next. During this entry into my personal recovery there will be several weeks of respecting old commitments while working hard on the new ones. This pendulum is swinging around two axes: money and time. It got off center a couple of years ago, so it shouldn’t be a surprise that it will take several months to regain a balance.

Recoveries are plans, and life rarely goes according to plan. And yet we plan, because we must. This recovery is happening within the bounds of my Backup Plans, but it is happening in ways I didn’t expect. No complaints. Recoveries may occur from the concerted efforts and chaotic luck of those involved. I hope that’s what’s happening in the bigger picture too because the plans within government and institutions fail to convince me that they will succeed. I see more optimism in the energetic efforts exemplified in Yes! Magazine, the movie Money and Life, the Story of Solutions, and the disorganized millions of non-profit organizations that are powered by volunteers and donors.

Neither GERN nor RSOL popped because of a string of press releases. Yes, there was some news at deeper levels, e.g. intellectual property sales, etc., but as with many small companies any progress is more likely tied to a long string of determined efforts that finally can be acknowledged and celebrated for the simplest rationalization. RSOL popped 40%, and still is trading at far too low a multiple of Price/Sales. I think its valuation should be higher, and maybe this is the beginning of such a recovery; but if not, I think it will get there eventually. I wonder if stocks are statistically as likely to be undervalued as overvalued. If so, there’s a lot of overvaluing coming the way of my portfolio.

I’m heartened by the rise of the Tiny House movement, wireless internet without using wi-fi, and the wonders of graphene. I’m heartened by much more, particularly all the folks that are diving in to write amendments to the Constitution to rein in the dysfunction, but it is late on a Saturday night and listing them all would mean finishing this blog much later on a Saturday night.

The people that are actively trying to make things better, even if it is simply by setting good examples, are an impressive force that may be overlooked for now, but may be the source of our larger recovery. I thank you for doing what you do. But sorry folks, I think tonight’s celebration is only going to be a double helping of popcorn – about enough for me.

 

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Cupcake Celebration

I bought a cupcake. It’s been months or years since I’ve had a cupcake. Finally, a gluten-free one from the coffeeshop/bookstore across the street. Office view It was time for a celebration. Anytime is a time for celebration, but it is easy to fall out of the habit – especially in turbulent times. The US government may decide to get back to work. The debt ceiling will probably be raised. Several of my clients have gained impressive traction lately, and have kept me gainfully employed. The mortgage – foreclosure pendulum has swung back to my favor. (Pardon me if I look for some glue to make that stick.) But I am celebrating an unexpected bit of good news. One of my stocks had a marvelous day today. Once upon a time I celebrated such events. Some make finances impersonal and dispassionate. I think a good way to remain engaged in personal finances is to make them personal. Today’s news deserved a mini-reprise of those old celebrations.

The main reason I’ve been struggling financially has been the simultaneous downturn in every stock in what had been a diversified portfolio. As I stated in my semi-annual portfolio review; “My portfolio possibilities can far exceed any financial influences of mortgage modifications.” But the reality has been that the portfolio that had sustained my lifestyle for years was hit by a Triple Whammy and wasn’t enough to pay the bills. Possibilities are wonderful, but reality requires paying bills. That’s why I’ve been so busy working and why I put my house on the market. Home For Sale A house that is a home is a wonderful thing, but fiscal responsibility possibly requires getting rid of such a large asset and liability.

The gap between yesterday’s reality and tomorrow’s possibility shrunk a bit today.

Of all the stocks in my portfolio, Geron (GERN), is so far from profitability and such a speculative stock, that I decided to sell half to get me over a recent cash flow gap. The good news: the cash came in very handy. The other good news: the stock climbed 100%, so even though I’ve lost half my shares, my holding is back to where it was. The other good news: the stock climbed so much in one day, today, that it is triple what I sold it for, and increased my net worth by about half a month’s living expenses. Okay, so there was a rationalization back in there. The stock movement was good news, but I do have seller’s remorse from having sold those shares. If I’d sold something else, today’s gain would have been an entire month’s living expenses, including the mortgage.

“Money carries no emotion.” “Investing is driven by math and logic.” And yet, almost everyone has witnessed hurt from money problems, even if it’s just a missed bill. And I suspect few expect the markets to act rationally anymore. If all feeling could be taken out of finance and investing then computers could run that aspect of our lives. Considering that money is abstract and life is real, maybe that’s an idea worth trying. In the meantime, if emotion is involved, don’t deny it. Use it.

In the first incarnation of this blog, which seems like decades ago, but is only a few years ago, I posted about a gift I’d give myself. If my portfolio was energetic enough to produce a $10,000 gain I’d give myself a $100 gift. I didn’t spend much back then either (a habit of frugality that has been precious in the interim) so for about what some folks spend on dinner I’d treat myself to something more exotic for my pantry, probably buy a brand new book, and have some left over to give to a charity.

A $10,000 day is possible. Hey, MVIS could pop any day, right? Right? But waiting for those days again is an exercise in yet more delayed gratification. I’m in my fifties. I’ve been delaying a lot. Imagine all of those who have been delaying longer. We have a lot of pent-up expectations.

So, rather than delay, and rather than be wasteful, I celebrated by buying a cupcake. Sounds kind of silly after all of that finance talk, but that’s a bit of the point.

The current dysfunctional aspects of today’s finances and politics can be demoralizing. Is anyone measuring whether cynicism is rising? Every day seems to bring more reason for what I call the Walk Away Movement, where people are becoming disengaged with institutions, and even currencies. It gets more appealing to me whenever I consider my choices. Which is more effective: trying to change the system, or helping my community become more sustainable? It is so easy to face our troubles head on and become overwhelmed in either case.

Finance, politics, and many issues of the day are passions, and vital even if they are arbitrary. But at their essence, we deal with finance so we can maintain and sustain our personal lives, the US government was formed by We The People. Focussing only on the problems is great for the problems, but the problems are big enough to absorb anyone’s complete reservoir of passion.

Save some passion for celebrations, even the small ones: balancing a confused checkbook, filing taxes on time, or finally deciding on a mutual fund. Save some passion for your slice of the bigger events: work parties, harvests, elections.

Thanks to Geron’s news about a –  first-in-class telomerase inhibitor currently in development for the treatment of hematologic malignancies – I celebrated optimism in many kinds of possibilities, and bought a cupcake.

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Ideally Compromised Optimums

Think you can have it all? We know that isn’t possible. Even Bill Gates plus Warren Buffett can’t buy the world. Think you can do it all? That would be ideal. Imagine an empty to-do list, or a house that was finally finished. Reality is less than ideal, but reality is the only thing we can deal with. Work with what’s real. Aim for what’s ideal. The negotiation between those two is compromise with attempts to optimize. The middle ground is where we do more than survive. We live because we compromise.

Witness America’s capital. Ideologies carried to their extremes without compromise shut down America. Ideologies carried to extremes mean people have lost jobs, businesses can be stopped or dramatically slowed, criminals find opportunities, and the security and assurance of the US Federal Government’s currency is put in doubt. Currencies like the US dollar rely on confidence. Weakened confidence weakens the dollar which weakens the country. Sounds silly, which is why Comedy Central late night talk shows have a wealth of material.

Such extremes sound silly, yet individuals can make similar choices. How many things are on your “Must Have” list? Some people break into tears if they can’t have the right color cell phone. Some get angry if their meal isn’t cooked exactly right. They expect perfection, and consider it reasonable to ask for because they know it is possible. If you’ve always been able to buy what you want, maybe even with credit, then not getting that next best thing can feel traumatic. Maturity cures that, and maturity is a neverending process.

Most folks know that they can’t have everything. Life is a series of trades. Pick a house (pick mine, buy mine!).Home For Sale Real estate is about location, location, location; but, reality is also about what’s available. I may want a house customized for me, on Whidbey Island with a lot ideal for self-sufficiency, a view of the shipping lanes and the Olympic mountains, within an easy walk of downtown Langley, that is quiet and affordable. My house, which is the only house I’ve ever owned and considered home and not just a house, has the view and is quiet,8199 Cultus Drive, Clinton WA but it is a 40 minute bicycle ride from Langley. Langley doesn’t have the view. Lots suited for self-sufficiency tend to be in the middle of the island away from the views and shopping. If Langley was on the west side of the island and situated for self-sufficiency any house would be so desirable that I probably couldn’t afford it.

Good news folks. I think I can afford my house, as long as I compromise.

I think I can afford my house because I have a much clearer idea of my “Must Have” list. Anyone who has gone through prolonged scarcity has been forced to choose. Those choices define a Must Have list. The consequences refine the choices.

My ideal is to keep my home, but I’ve also come to recognize that housing is a Must Have, but that my house is not. I’m definitely working hard at keeping it. The main determinant is money and thanks to my clients and customers I think I can make and sustain the mortgage payments, if my mortgage can be renegotiated. The reality is that I think I’ll have enough money as of my receipts for October’s work. The other reality is that I may lose the house anyway.

Details are available in previous posts (Timing Good News Maybe, Mortgage Mediation Weirdness), but the concise story is that two poorly scheduled meetings mean two opportunities to renegotiate my mortgage may have been lost. Even the subsequent phone calls went amiss to the point that I don’t know what’s happening. One distinct possibility is that the foreclosure proceedings have been initiated. I don’t know.

Ideally I want to keep my home, as a nice way to meet that Must Have of having housing. I’ve found myself in an optimization process of balancing my regular workload; incorporating the additional workload; conducting the basics of home, life, and relationship maintenance; and maintaining my physical, mental, and emotional health. Oh yeah, and keeping up with the mortgage negotiations. Realistically, it may be that my efforts have not been enough and that I lose this house.

I may not be a good enough writer to make this apparent but, the purpose of this blog is to provide one example of how an individual has to make choices around personal finance. Balancing money and life involves real choices that may be influenced by ideals, and that do involve optimizations, but that ultimately are a series of guesses and compromises. Outside observers may wonder at the choices that are made, and that will always be the case. Even posting as much as me, it can be difficult to keep up with events, motivations, and consequences. No wonder people who are quieter can seem much more enigmatic. At least with this blog, an example is available.

If I lose my house I think I’ll feel sorrier for my support network. I’ve never had so many people cheering me on. Even years into this effort I continue to hear new alternatives. Those that have offered to buy my house as a short sale may get their chance. (Though I still don’t understand how that helps me. It helps the mortgage company, but I’m not sure about my benefit.)

As an engineer I dealt with optimization frequently. An airplane must be balanced. Aerodynamics, structures, economics, operations, and passengers and crew all deal with less than ideal solutions. Airplanes don’t get off the ground without compromise. Rocket launches are optimums of compromises that still must meet safety and performance requirements. Steer around those population centers, don’t break anything in the rocket or satellite, and end up in the right orbit without running into another satellite.

Expecting ideal optimizations is a cause for anxiety and stress. Surprisingly, one source of stress amongst people who have more than enough money is that they worry that they aren’t spending it as efficiently as possible, that what they bought isn’t the absolute best, and that they aren’t investing it for optimum return. People who expected to achieve an ideal optimum fell reduced self-esteem when they inevitably learn that something better was possible. The lower stress lives when “good enough” is seen as more valuable than “optimum” or “best”.

Something better is always possible. Agonizing over it can be stressful.

Something that can’t be negotiated is time. Optimize at will, but realize that everyone has the same wealth and limit of 24 hours per day. We can only do what we can do, and we shouldn’t treat ourselves poorly if our efforts don’t produce everything we ideally want.

Some of my readers will be dealing with a bit of compromise. I hoped to write about two Constitutional amendments that I am helping to draft. I hoped to write about tomorrow’s Community Ride. I hoped to write about the practicality and failings of multiple choice, which also involves some optimization issues. But I must compromise by bringing this post to a close. Almost 12 of those 24 hours have passed today and I have obligations to meet prior to helping a dear friend and enjoying some socializing. It is a Saturday, eh? Maybe by Monday we’ll hear about a compromise between the US political parties. That would be ideal. (Of course, if they kept shutdown and missed the debt ceiling would that delay foreclosure while I made more money? Maybe good for me, but that would compromise too many peoples’ lives.)

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Mortgage Mediation Weirdness

Just a quick post to keep folks up to date with the oddities that are the episodes of trying to remove the threat of foreclosure. (See Timing Good News Maybe for the prequel to this episode.)

Well, that was certainly a bit of bad weirdness. The mortgage mediator called to ask why I wasn’t at the meeting. Evidently, without telling me, they scheduled a meeting to discuss how, whether, and when I could pay my mortgage. The mediator was there. The mortgage representative was there. The attorney (?) was there. My counselor was there. I paid for the meeting, and yet they didn’t call to check my schedule. They didn’t send me an email, regular mail, or phone call. Now they are threatening to submit a notice of “not acting in good faith” because I didn’t show up for the meeting that I didn’t know about but did pay for. Is this something for the Attorney General?

At this point, I’m actually eager for a conversation in a business tone, but the dialog I receive continues to be defined by dismissive terms. I’m hoping for a re-scheduling, and I hope to be included in it. I’ve talked to many people who’ve been through this process and none of them suggest it will go smoothly, even though at its basics, this is just a matter of money.

Stay tuned.

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Less Mailbox Wincing

I barely winced. Earlier this week I got out the checkbook, rummaged around for the bills, and paid them without wincing. Until recently, anxiety attacks lived on the periphery of visiting the mailbox, opening the letters, and checking my bank balances. Some think people with little money casually disrespect their obligations. The opposite can definitely be the case. Negative reinforcement piled on negative reinforcement is emotionally painful to people who pride themselves on fiscal responsibility. I was glad to clear that hurdle.

Did I mention the other hurdles that are off to the side? I’ll get to those in a while.

This ride I’ve had through several of America’s economic classes can methodically be demarcated by financial statements, balance sheets, income and expense reports, and plenty of graphs. Maybe I’ll do that some day. The more important distinctions have been emotional.

  • True wealth = pre-pay bills. Take something like a utility bill, pick a big round number and pay months worth. Opening the bills for subsequent months was merely checking to make sure the remaining credit is more than the current bill. Very free-ing. Bills were quickly handled and ignored.
  • Somewhat more than enough = pay the bills as they come in, for the exact amount. Reasonably unemotional, actually an innocuous chore, readily handled. The credit card companies might not like the fact I paid off the balance every month, but hey, that’s what everyone agreed to. Congratulate myself on a small chore well-handled.
  • Barely enough = pay the bills on time, but maybe time the payment to maximize my return, or to leave the door open for optimism. Some do this no matter how much they have, but when it became a necessity it it became a risky game playing on the borders of grace periods. Opening the bills was almost always a non-event, but surprises did happen. A bit of adrenaline kicks in as cash flow is checked, maybe savings were tapped; but my mood returned to normal soon enough. Ah, but the lingering doubt of less frequent expenses like insurance remained.
  • Enough for some but not for all = Certain bills are easy. If the bill is semi-monthly and totals less than a lunch, it gets opened and paid quickly. That became a mini-celebration. Unfortunately, there are also bills that can’t be paid, that might lead to foreclosure or even bankruptcy. There’s no way to know which bills are in the box. My anxiety would kick in as I decided to go out and get the mail. Opening that little door was like postal Russian roulette. An empty box was a great relief. An unfamiliar letter would be enough for me to call a neighbor or a friend to stand with me as I opened the envelope.
  • Barely enough for the basics of survival = I never got there, but I could see it from where I stood. And I know others have lived there for years. I don’t know if deep down they become inured or cynical or fatalistic, though I know their surface emotions are usually either an appreciation for what is, or a rebellion against that which keeps them from what is not. I know I don’t want to experience the depths of that potential pain.

I paid my bills without wincing, but I’m very aware that I shoved some of the hurdles to the side. I’ve paid all my bills, except for the mortgage and my homeowners association dues. Propane is probably coming up soon. There’s an entire field of hurdles that are deferred maintenance on the house, my truck, me, and my stuff. As regular readers know, as of October 1st I have enough business that I’ll be able to pay a new mortgage in November – I think. (I still don’t know if there’ll be a mortgage modification, nor how much its monthly payments will be.) As of November, any extra money will go to things that should’ve received it months or years ago. At this rate it will take years to clear the hurdles.

The fall can happen fast, but the recovery takes longer. Maintenance is cheaper than repair which is cheaper than replacement; so, deferred maintenance becomes higher expenses. Making enough, or even more than enough, is a reason for celebration; but the celebrator is probably aware that getting back to where they wanted to be can be so delayed that they might as well have a small party now, and then too.

The wincing is not completely behind me, but opening the mailbox is easier. A friend even mentioned that my shoulders have relaxed. How much muscular stress and stress-related chemistry has my body had to deal with? Adjustments must be made, and for some I’m sure that involves a welcome return to chiropractic treatments long delayed. After a recent massage (thanks for those who’ve been negotiable) my head and sternum were sore because the muscles around them had been tight for so long. Relaxing the muscles was such a significant event that my bones ached. And I was glad.

Money comes and goes and hopefully comes back. Emotions linger. Just like repair work costs more than maintenance, the emotional cost of recovering from loss takes longer than the normal swings between highs and lows. I’m feeling better, and know my emotions are tempered by my experience. Others who are going through, or have been through, worse will have to devote more time to returning to “normal”. Some may be trapped there forever. If we really want the nation to recover, its apparent to me that supporting people financially and emotionally will speed the process. How much American productivity is lost to anxious reactions from our abstraction of money?

The nation, no, the government, specifically the federal government is shut down. Hundreds of thousands are going to have a different relationship with their mailbox. I hope that doesn’t last long, and I hope we recover quickly.

 

(Note to fellow bloggers: See how busy I’ve become? Less than 1,000 words in the main post. No links. No photos. No time. Gotta go.)

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Ceiling Shutdown

I can envision, “Shut down the dance floor. This party’s over.” “Shut down the trading floor. The trading day is done.”. The only metaphor that comes to mind for shutting down a ceiling are the climatic scenes where the heroes are about to be crushed in some trap. “Shut down all the garbage smashers on the detention level!” Our nation’s metaphor is mixed. The shutdown may mean we run into a ceiling: the debt ceiling. The results can get messy. In this bit of reality, we have to shutdown the shutdown if we don’t want to be squeezed. The shutdown affects millions. Crashing into the debt ceiling will affect almost everyone. Some are screaming into their communicators. Others are trying to brace the walls. Many are finding their own way out.

There’s an amazing amount of talent out there on the Internet. I knew if I waited long enough that someone would create a great entertaining video that does a very good, non-partisan job describing the shutdown. Thank you vlogbrothers. In fine fashion they point out that the root of the shutdown is the bizarre redistricting that ensures incumbents maintain their positions, and that emphasizes extremism. Politicians don’t represent districts. They represent factions, and will redraw the district lines and define party lines that make sure they and the factions are protected.

From my largely apolitical perspective (i.e. not D or R). the shutdown looks like the sort of dysfunctional institution that should be dramatically re-organized. (Bring in the organizational consultants!) The main motivation is no longer managing the country, but rather defending ideologies while preserving careers and power. We have become accustomed to such actions to the point that one defense I’ve heard repeated is that, “It’s always been this way to various extents.” Just because we have bad habits doesn’t mean we get to keep them, or that we get to inflict them upon others.

Remember personal finance? (Mine’s improving, and I thank you for your support.) One of the keys to improving personal finance is to understand the basics: spend less than you make, and invest the rest. It is also a sound business practice. It seems that it should make for sound governance, especially in a government that encourages a (relatively) free market. Yet, while many people and businesses follow those two rules, our government of the people by the people and for the people rarely runs a surplus and is rather lopsided in the way it invests. We spend more on shortening lives than we do on lengthening lives.

The shutdown comes perilously close to the debt ceiling. We’re received many lessons in raising the debt ceiling because we continue to bump up against our national credit limit. We already ran out of money, and now we are borrowing to pay the bills. In a couple of weeks we’ll run into our credit limit. Luckily, we can reset the credit limit, but only if the government is functioning well enough. The shutdown is evidence that well enough isn’t happening.

Government press releases are typically uninspired, accurate, require post-analysis, and ignored except by analysts and interpreters. The US Treasury released a bit of press earlier this week that broke that mold. They very clearly stated that,
“In the event of a default, the U.S. economy could be plunged into a recession worse than any seen since the Great Depression.”
Gulp. But we already knew that, right?

Maybe a public outcry will shift the Congress into action, but representatives are motivated by the votes from their districts. Of course, they aren’t motivated by well-funded interests from outside their districts because that might lead to corruption and we’d never have that. No. No. No. Without a change in motivation or incentives, behaviours don’t change. I suspect there’ll eventually be a resolution that minimizes the political impact and that leaves most of those involved in their positions – oh yeah, and restores the basic supports that millions rely on.

My concern is more on the personal level. So is the BBC’s. They even have a spot on their news page where they are asking to hear from Americans about the effects of the shutdown. I had fun filling that out that form. What are the personal consequences? For me, the shutdown has done little. The debt ceiling is much more likely to have a personal finance effect. (I also pointed out that people living in an earthquake/tsunami zone surrounded by volcanoes are better prepared to cope with disasters, from whatever source.)

The Treasury release mentioned,
“credit markets could freeze, the value of the dollar could plummet, and U.S. interest rates could skyrocket, ”
On a personal level:

  • credit markets could freeze – If it was hard getting credit a few years ago, it could be harder now.
  • the value of the dollar could plummet – Imports, including fuel, become more expensive. Exports sell better. It is a mixed blessing but one that usually balances against those relying most on the basics of life; because ironically, it is cheaper to live in America if you don’t buy American.
  • U.S. interest rates could skyrocket – Want a shock? Go back and look at a newspaper from 1980. Mortgage rates of 13% capped at 16%. Great if you are loaning money. Lousy if you are borrowing it. Also a time when those with money can make more money, and those without are left out. Our inequities become less equitable.

Such times are good times to be frugal, and to not tie your emotions to your money. I can certainly attest to the emotional trauma of massive monetary swings, but throughout it I know that I am not my money. I lamented not being able to pay my bills. I’m now on the cusp of celebrating paying everything, including the mortgage again (as soon as we reach an agreement). Those pains and joys were real, but I keep in mind that my self-worth has been more stable than my net worth. Personal responsibility is key to personal finance, but the financial world is not in our direct control. If it seems like things are rough and a bit irrational, it might be because things are a bit rough and irrational. The best sailor can’t expect smooth sailing when caught in a storm.

I’m continuing to work seven days a week (ala Rule of 7). Thankfully, my two biggest clients account for 39 hours of work each week. The other aspects of my business are gaining traction at the same time. Some of that work will be kept. Some not. As in any transition there is chaos and a bit of stress, which is where I am as I redefine my work life while trying to maintain the rest of my life. Amidst the national turmoil, I am working as hard as possible to reduce my debt, live within my means, and appreciate what life has provided. That’s what I can do. It doesn’t restart the government. It doesn’t move the government’s debt ceiling. But maybe enough of us living responsibly can succeed by providing examples that our representational government can follow. We’ll succeed because we didn’t shut down, and we made sure we stayed as far away from our ceilings as possible. And if they don’t listen, well, at least we appreciate our self-worth.

Remembering that there's work, and chores - and the rest of life, like dancing, or joining PhotoWalks.

Remembering that there’s work, and chores – and the rest of life, like dancing, or joining PhotoWalks.

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Timing Good News Maybe

A blog in two parts: Tuesday Evening and Wednesday Evening

Tuesday Evening

They said yes! Evidently they liked what I’ve done enough. I asked my two biggest clients (NRM & HCLE) if they’d double  my hours. Yes. And in one case, they even suggested I increase my hours even more, and gave me a raise. With those two increases I’ll make enough to pay the mortgage – that is, if the mortgage servicer agrees to work with me just a little longer. There’s a bit of a timing issue. Money isn’t everything, but you already know that.

Normally I post Wednesday and Saturday mornings. The idea was to post halfway through the stock market’s week, and then again at the close. The stock market seemed to be the only aspect of my book (Dream. Invest. Live.) that had a regular schedule, so the market decided my timing. As I type, it is Tuesday night. Wednesday morning’s schedule has only one item: the mediation meeting about the mortgage. Blog before? Blog after? I decided to do both. Habits have to change; and this story is told, and lived, over two days.

The meeting is a mystery to me. I’ve never been through mediation. I don’t know what to expect from the mortgage servicer or even who else will be there. Very little of the process has followed the kind of logic I’m familiar with from business, finance, or almost any normal interaction. Maybe logic will suddenly arise, just as it did when I met with the Fannie Mae representative at the end of May. Back then, the Fannie Mae representative listened to my story and surprisingly agreed with me that the main thing I needed was more time. It looks like I need a little bit more.

HCLE (History of Computing in Learning and Education) and NRM (New Road Map) were both agreeable to my increase in hours. There’s more than enough work to be done, and with a squeeze the money is available; especially, if I spend the extra hours looking for funding. (Anyone want to help fund a Virtual Museum about how teachers pioneered the entrance of computers into the classroom? How about supporting the effort to spread a more rational perspective on personal finance based on values-based financial literacy?) Put the two efforts together and 39 hours of my work week are accounted for. Very good. Put those two incomes together and I can probably pay all of my bills, even back bills and ideally a reduced mortgage.

Ah, but the mortgage servicer expected a payment at the end of September, well, every month since I bought the house. They made a modification offer that I couldn’t accept because I didn’t have the income. Tomorrow is October 2nd. Maybe I can accept an offer, but I can’t write a check for more than a month. My increased workload started today, yeah, but I don’t get paid until November. So, will they be willing to slide the timing two more months? I don’t know.

What I do know is that my life is changing. As I’ve said before, getting a job that asks for more hours makes work easier. When the workday is comprised of twelve disparate projects my mental gear changes wear out my mental transmission. Each project becomes a sprint with a great percentage of the time spent engaging and disengaging, making sure the right accounts are open, that the facebook account for one is not feeding the twitter account of the previous. Each project has its own pace and schedule, which means shifting perspectives and speeds a few times per hour.

With more time devoted to two large projects my mind can settle into a rhythm, can establish more of an endurance pace than an unsustainable sprint. With more time devoted to those projects, my other projects will have to find other times. So will this blog. Evenings and weekends, that I’ve been working anyway, will now be when my art business operates and when I’ll teach my classes – and when the blog gets written and published. I’ll even find more spare time because much of my days has been spent investigating other possibilities, applying for jobs, and putting energy into anything that makes any money whether or not it is core to my consulting and management business.

What I don’t know is where I’ll be doing the work. If they remove the threat of foreclosure, I can work from my house again, saving me commuting time (some of which I’ve enjoyed by bicycling), and greatly relaxing me as my house regains a sense of security. If the foreclosure proceeds, I guess I’ll be bicycling into work regularly in the winter, and then wondering where I’ll live next.

Timing. Months ago, losing my house would have meant being homeless (not that my friends would let that happen). Now, even if I lose my home, I’ll be able to afford housing – as of some time in November. That is a great relief.

Despite the good news, anxiety remains. A week ago I doubted that I could keep my house. Now it is possible. Will I or won’t I? Will they let me, or won’t they? A lot is at risk in one meeting; though, because of the timing, it is actually less than before. I wish I knew. Given time, I will.

Wednesday Evening

Well, that didn’t go according to plan. I arrived at the building just in time; despite bouncing my truck against the ferry ramp, getting lost in a city where I lived 30 years ago, finding a building that pointed to another building that pointed back to a different door at the first building, but I made it. Not the sort of morning to calm the nerves. Not the emotional state to walk into a mediation negotiation meeting. But at least I wasn’t the last one there. My counselor showed up right behind me. We hit the doorbell, waited for our entrance – and then found that the mediator and everyone else was scheduled for 2pm, not 9am. I’ve got work to do. I’ve got work to do to make the money that will mean I can walk into such a meeting and confidently and reliably state that I can may a modified mortgage, if it is like the previous offers. Some rescheduling was necessary.

Weird thing #1
It was suggested that by my not being on time for the 2PM meeting I might be considered to be not acting in good faith, even though I showed up on time as I was told to. Would the other parties be considered to not be acting in good faith because they didn’t attend when I was told to be there?

Weird thing #2
Rescheduling might take months. That would actually work to my benefit, as the foreclosure proceedings can’t proceed while mediation is in progress. But it is understandable that they wouldn’t want to delay much more.

Weird thing #3
Holding the meeting at the original time could work if I could just call in. That was deemed unacceptable, even though other parties call in when they can’t attend in person. So, different criteria apply to them than to me. So much for equal footing.

Weird thing #4
Even if the meeting takes place, I still haven’t received a letter telling me how much a new payment would be. I can’t responsibly write out a check and leave off the amount.

It’s been a weird day. It’s been a bizarre process. The process continues.

The good news from Tuesday night remains. Every day the good news improves because every day I am making more than enough to live, and if this delays long enough, I’ll finally have the bank account to show for it.

In the meantime, I’ll continue to adjust, change those habits built for a different circumstance, and look forward to good timing and good times.

And you’ll get to see these posts coming on Tuesday or Wednesday evenings. Some adaptation is required, and it is all for good reasons.

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