Semi-Annual Exercise – EOY 2025

Posted on December 31, 2025 by Tom Trimbath

Let’s see. The simplest review is: in the most recent six months:

GERN is down 6%
LCTX is up 83%
MVIS is down 27%
GMGMF is up 276%
SLDP is up 94%
QBTS is up 78%
LUNR is up 49%

and my net worth is up 130%, and that’s after expenses and taxes and such.

Not going to complain.

Going to keep worrying. 

There are good reasons for the growth in these companies, particularly in quantum computing (QBTS), lunar industry development (LUNR), and solid-state batteries (GMGMF and SLDP). Biotechs are as squirrely as ever (GERN and LCTX). MVIS is as encouraging and disappointing as ever.

In terms of personal finances, life is good. My house price hasn’t changed much since I bought and moved into a tiny house. Evidently, even though I am feeling spendy, I continue to live reasonably frugally, though now that is by choice instead of necessity. My income is dominated by Social Security because it has been over a year since I’ve had a job. I continue to write and produce books and photos, but they’re sales have been slow, possibly as I rush-wrote my book about my roller-coaster ride through America’s wealth classes, Muddling By. While I watch my stocks every day, I think I only made one sale this year, of which a big chunk was re-invested, a chunk went to paying off personal and emotional debts and thanks, and the rest resides as a cash buffer to ease money anxieties. 

So, that was 2025.

I’m staring at 2026. I think change is accelerating, as is to be expected in a singularity, that the changes will mostly be unsurprising, and that a few changes will surprise almost everyone. Someone will get lucky and guess right, but they’ll probably claim it as foresight. Singularities are unpredictable, almost by definition.

I’m staring at 2026 because I: 1) know that most days are like the previous days, and 2) change is changing and fundamental assumptions may prove to be good ideas but not natural laws.

Aside from aliens and such, AI can be the biggest swinger in the world order. Climate change is happening. Politics is eating itself. Injustices are harder to hide, yet remain too-intractable. We are an immature species pretending that we know what we’re doing. We’re smarter than before, but a few generations from now we will be seen as silly and stupid.

So, in terms of personal finance, I’m trying to decide on what I should do with what I have. 

Money is one issue because the investment community has been changing for decades, computers accelerated those changes, and AI may overwhelm any of those trends. AI may invest, but even if it doesn’t industries will be challenged, which means stocks will be challenged, which means I shouldn’t expect things to stay the same.

I’ve been investing since 1977 and have seen several bubbles, corrections, and recoveries. I started this post with some impressive numbers, of which I am glad, but those numbers are large enough that it seems like yet another bubble. And yet, crashes have not been complete, some stocks go up as others go down, fear is the enemy but prudence suggests being ready to move based on reality.

I think AI may pop, which is one reason to not be invested in it, and yet, quantum computing may survive and thrive because: 1) it may be the next evolutionary step in our technological society, and 2) quantum computing may may may produce or provide a more energy and resource efficient infrastructure for many technology requirements and advances. 

I wrote Firewatcher, a sci-fi novel about people escaping Earth to escape an AI, partly because I heard projections of AI advancements happening in 2100, if ever, and produced my estimate of 2040. As I started writing the book in the 2010s, I realized that AI was maturing faster than that. I’m glad I finished it in time. 2030 wouldn’t be a surprise to me, and neither would ‘any day now’.

At least for now, I will continue to be mostly invested in the stock market because:1) if I’m wrong, stocks will still be investments, 2) I think my stocks are well-positioned for such change, and 3) I’m not so worried that I’m going to go all prepper and head out to the hills (which are right up the road, but I don’t have enough cash to buy a good piece of land with a house, and have comfortable income too.)

And, I consider climate change, regime change, societal change, and whatever change because those changes aren’t going to stop while AI blows by or blows up. I think AI could solve those issues, but I think we’ll go through a period of it and us confusing us. We may be years from resolving most of those issues, and the world may require years for the global changes.

Whew. So much for this post just being about my investments and personal finance. And yet, of all the years that I’ve done this twice-yearly exercise, now seems to be closest to the beginning of a crucial era in our civilization’s development.

I suspect 2026 will be a news-heavy year, a time of significant changes, and a time to be glad of the frugal, practical, creative, and pragmatic people I know because they may be the examples that people scoff at now and soon find they have to listen to intently.

Wish us all good luck for the new year, and if it is a happy one that will be a bonus.

And, I still buy lottery tickets.

Read on for my stock synopses. And good luck.

INTRO Here’s my semi-annual exercise to see if I remember why I own the stocks I own, and so I can check back and see if their stories have changed. I post in case it helps others too.

(I’ve also collected links to the other discussion boards and my other stocks over on my blog. https://trimbathcreative.net/ & from my One Company One Story series on YouTube https://youtu.be/su1AMjPEkLI )

Geron

GERN (market cap is $0.855B was $0.870B)

Geron (GERN) is a biotech that recently received FDA approval for their blood disorder treatment. Their product works on blood-related cancers, and may extend to other cancers.

Geron is a biotech, but seems a bit withered. I’ve held the stock since circa 1999. Then, they were leading edge, a major innovator, had grand plans for dramatically expanding human lifespans; and had a management team and philosophy that impressed me with their wisdom and insights into public reactions.

Delays inspired and required the sale of much of their intellectual property and divisions, which leaves them with the telomerase-related treatments. They may be more than good enough for the company to become impressively useful and profitable. Sadly, subsequent management teams seem to have lost the startup vigor, and the long term grand plan for revolutionizing medical care. Now, management seems like, well, managers, managers who are executing a plan but not a vision.

As I understand it, managing cell telomeres can manage to treat cell death by encouraging some cells to die (cancer) and discouraging others from dying prematurely (auto-immune diseases). Those two general applications cover a broad swath of medical issues, some of which have few or poor treatment options. Whether management recognizes the potential is highly uncertain.

DISCLOSURE LTBH since 1999 and continuing to hold, but do not plan on buying more unless I see significant positive changes at the company. I continue to hold because selling so low has little benefit and I am an optimist.

​Graphene Manufacturing Group

GMGMF (market cap is $0.239B was $0.064B)

Graphene Manufacturing Group (GMGMF) is a startup with a few released and potential products based on the use of graphene. My primary interest is in their battery work, but they also sell lubrication and cooling additives.

​I suspect we are about to reach the next plateau in battery development. Particularly, GMGMF recently announced a solid state battery that will recharge in 6 minutes. Insert exclamation mark. (!)  I recall whatever came before alkaline, then rechargeables, now, lithium-ion. Graphene allows batteries that are safer, thinner, and recharge quicker. Such advantages could lead to greater adoption of electric vehicles and other devices, both large markets.

I am a fan of graphene, and believe a next generation battery is due. Whether it is GMGMF or someone else will be determined by market conditions. Unfortunately, I can’t invest in all of those publicly-traded companies, so I picked two: GMGMF and SLDP. Both may be years away from profitability, though the stocks may move in anticipation instead of reaction to news.

​DISCLOSURE I tend to LTBH, and have held shares since 2024.

Lineage Cell Therapeutics

LCTX (market cap is $0.368B was $0.210B)

Lineage Cell Therapeutics (LCTX) is a startup biotech diversified across several technologies, though I follow them, and own stock, because of their work in using stem cells to treat nerve damage and vision-related maladies (macular degeneration).

Stem cell-based treatments are innovative enough that the FDA approval process can become more difficult. The treatments may not have current approved competition that could guide the FDA, and trial sizes tend to be smaller. Conventional approaches may have much larger groups, and therefore, larger and statistically more significant results. The fewer the folks, the greater likelihood of a result being seen as a fluke rather than a result. LCTX’s treatments are further from approval than I expected. Compassionate care would suggest their use when no other treatment is available.

​Their early results are encouraging, and similar to what they said they expected to achieve. Vision improvements rely on data because they are harder to verify than the objectively visible improvement of turning a quadriplegic to a paraplegic.

Approval is likely a few years away, but they’ve been working on the treatments for years, so it may not take much more time, relatively.

​DISCLOSURE LTBH by habit, but having to remember that my LCTX/BTX holdings came from AST (2014), which was spun off from GERN (which I’ve held since 1999). I hear patience pays, but it is easy to have doubts after twenty years of waiting.

Intuitive Machines

LUNR (market cap is $2.87B was $1.94B)

Intuitive Machines (with the more appropriately named symbol LUNR) is an aerospace company largely focused on delivering aerospace products and services into the lunar industry, economy, and exploration. Recent acquisitions may diversify them into more general space-related endeavors. They are a relatively young company in a relatively young industry.

LUNR is probably mostly known for having both lunar landers land on the moon (good) then fall over (bad). While those are publicly perceived failures, the stock seems buoyed by the fact that the company met 85% of the mission goals, and were paid for them.

They are not alone. Many companies are addressing the lunar market and having varied successes. Anything involving rockets is risky. Going farther than low-earth orbit is rare and relatively unexplored territory, but the potential demand and market is enormous – and largely ill-defined. The discovery of lunar water has been a great enabler that wasn’t as important in the Apollo era.

LUNR’s diversification is a plus. LUNR’s overlooked successes, regardless of tipped landers, may suggest an undervaluation. Rockets also involve governments, and industrial risks. Such worries can constrain the stock.

The lunar market could be our species’ first extra-planetary industry and economy, in which case, this could be a ground-floor opportunity (for a redefinition of ‘ground’).

If the next lander lands successfully, the company may gain a significant legitimacy, and commensurate stock price. If. If. If.

DISCLOSURE LTBH since 2024. Bought more, recently.

MicroVision

MVIS (market cap is $0.259B was $0.283B)

Oh dear. Am I doing this again? Is the company doing this again, a new CEO which means yet again a new direction? Sigh. Read on, and hope. For years, I’ve copied and pasted the previous post. Let’s start fresh.

Microvision (MVIS) is a (perpetual) startup based on the technology that is an oscillating mirror on a chip. Shine light on the mirror and the oscillations can produce an image. Let the mirror reflect what it sees, and it becomes a sensor. Shine light on it and receive that reflected light, and it is effectively LiDAR. The market potential for the projector is roughly the same as the smartphone market because a projector has already been produced that fits in a smartphone. As a bar code sensor, it has been demonstrated for reading barcodes as well as helping industrial automation. As a LiDAR unit, it can enable autonomous vehicles. Lots of potential.

​Lots of potential, but each CEO has departed without their initiative becoming successful. Arguably, some of those ideas may have and could be profitable, but they were set aside as new managers arrived. This has been going on since at least 1999. The company has survived through dilution, which means my original stake has been diminished significantly. I believe in the potential based on market needs, not personal emotions. I am also saddened by the correlation of shifting development directions with each new management shift. The ideas that have been abandoned have rarely been explained in terms of market conditions and are replaced with the prospects of the next shiny option, and yet, I suspect some of those earlier ideas may be valid if they’d pursued them or returned to them.

​DISCLOSURE LTBH since 1999 (though the very first shares are gone). I continue to hold because the price is so low that the only benefit to a sale may be for tax losses, and because, if only by luck, I think the company may be profitable because a customer wants the product regardless of what management has in mind.

Dilution means that I no longer have more than enough if the company finally succeeds and the stock reaches the heights I think are possible. Some day, some day…

D-Wave Quantum

QBTS (market cap is $9.19B was $4.56B)

D-Wave Quantum (which has the much cooler symbol QBTS) is a leading edge quantum computer company that is delivering products and services to an industry that is a large unknown with large potential. Quantum Computing can also be 1) relatively easy to describe as a computer with bits that are 1s and 0s, and 2) can be ridiculously difficult to explain in terms of operations.

Quantum computing had been a lab tech possibility for so long that I think QBTS and others were overlooked. Now, the market is realizing they are real, and the market is confused, excited, and worried about how to value the technology and the individual players. As the actual computers find uses, there is an additional difficulty in understanding the nuances that delineate and define a variety of hardware and software approaches.

Within the recent 18 months, the stock has risen from ~$1 to ~$46 and settled back to ~$30. Optimists can say it is up 2,000%. Pessimists can say it is down 33%. Both are right. What happens next is a gamble. I doubt there were many investors who recognized how large Intel, et al could become. Now that we’re seen the phenomenal growth in new technology, the rush is on to not miss out on quantum computing, just in case. That also means the stock price is driven by hope more than fundamentals, at least for now.

QBTS is not alone, however. Their early success is more than encouraging, but innovative technologies are known for disruptions from unexpected innovations – or maybe QBTS is the unexpected and therefore profitable innovation.

DISCLOSURE LTBH since 2024. Sold some shares to cover my investment. Sold some shares to realize a profit. Holding the rest because 1) they’re all profit, and 2) if QBTS succeeds as much as it could, these shares could look cheap, maybe.

​Solid Power

SLDP (market cap is $0.817B was $0.398B)

​Solid Power (SLDP) is a startup working on solid-state batteries.

​I suspect we are about to reach the next plateau in battery development. I recall whatever came before alkaline, then rechargeables, now, lithium-ion. Graphene allows batteries that are safer, thinner, and recharge quicker. Such advantages could lead to greater adoption of electric vehicles and other devices, both large markets.

Solid state batteries are, ideally, safer than lithium-ion. That alone is sufficient to encourage their adoption, and if they charge faster or have greater density, the adoption and profitability can increase.

​I believe a next generation battery is due. Whether it is SLDP or someone else will be determined by market conditions. Unfortunately, I can’t invest in all of those publicly-traded companies, so I picked two: GMGMF and SLDP. Both may be years away from profitability, though the stocks may move in anticipation instead of reaction.

DISCLOSURE LTBH since 2024.

For more details about the stocks, here are links to various discussion boards where you can find my synopses, as well as others’ points of view. For more details about how I do what I do, there’s a book that I wrote at the request of several friends: Dream. Invest. Live. Maybe you can help my personal finances by buying a copy – though the frugal part of me recommends checking one out from a library.

Many of the independent investors who contribute to the discussions provide in-depth analyses that either aren’t available elsewhere, or would cost too much to buy. The other advantage is the diversity of perspectives. Unfortunately, I don’t engage as much as I did before. Some discussions have degraded due to lack of moderators, or overly zealous moderators (immoderate moderators, an oxymoron), or have too many immoderate voices. Some boards are effectively ghost towns, or feel like cavernous empty warehouses. 

“Gold mines produce far more rubble than gold.
It is easy to complain about the rubble.
Ignore the rubble.
Pay attention to the gold.”

Regardless, here are the sites I continue to visit, even if it is only to lurk and listen. 

I encourage you to tune in, because more voices (as long as they’re mature) make for a better conversation. Maybe I’ll read you there.  

Investor Village (widest range of boards, could benefit from more traffic)

LCTX

GERN

MVIS

SLDP

LUNR

QBTS

GMGMF

Silicon Investor (Relatively older boards, less trafficked, but populated with informed investors)

GERN

MVIS

LUNR

Reddit (Many will cringe, but there’s impressive quality within the impressive quantity of posts and voices. I lurk more than post.)

LCTX

MVIS

SLDP

QBTS

GERN

Intuitive Machines (LUNR)

GMGMF

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Spending With Age

Posted on December 27, 2025 by Tom Trimbath

“Well, we gotta get the kids those toys. They’ve seen the ads. They’ll cry if they don’t get them.”

“Hey, the kid’s launching into the world. They don’t have much and don’t realize what they’ll need. Get them some household stuff, even if they don’t have a house, yet.”

“Either they’re married, have kids, or at least one of those, or want some of that. Time to get them stuff for their kids, or for their house, or so they can have some of that. Ask them what they need, because they may not have time for what they want.”

“If they’re in a career, they’re getting what they want. Cool. Give them more of that. If money’s tight, don’t be tight about money. That may be what they need and want.”

“Kids are graduated. careers are shifting. They may be downsizing houses, cars instead of vans, maybe some nice high-end niceties that don’t take up much space. Luxuries can happen and be appreciated.”

“About that retirement, skip the socks and give them something they want because at this point, all gifts are doing is filling in the gaps, but may also be filling garages and storage units.”

“No more stuff! They’re trying to get rid of things they thought were heirlooms. Sure, some have become classics, and vinyl has come back (for a while), but consumables may be best. People still have to eat. Candles and such are nice. A bottle of a beverage works too.”

“Stuff? Ask them. They may want something that’s harder to wrap, like time. And no, that does not mean a clock. A phone call or a visit can be more meaningful than yet another trinket. Sure, it doesn’t cost as much, but time is more precious than money, isn’t it?”

I sit here, a senior citizen by government definition. I’m in a tiny house, so there’s no tree. There are lights, but hopefully a tasteful set. Gifts have been mostly fruits and chocolates. Very little wrapping paper. Things to share, because sharing is a gift, too.

I’m doing stuff, not stuff that can be stuffed into a box, but stuff that can fill a calendar. Visiting friends, sitting in place with good tea just to sit and relax, dancing of course, and walks and bike rides and playing in the snow as weather and conditions permit.

Pardon me as I sip my tea.

I’ve gifted myself a few things that wouldn’t make sense to expect from anyone. Winter bicycling gloves and a new floor bike pump make it easier to ride. New glasses aren’t going to come from someone else. I don’t need new ones, but the screws on the old ones get loose too easily. I made a few trips to the food co-op and the local market to get things like the better bacon and butter, a bottle of mead, some roasts for later, and soap made by locals – consumables.

I tried to give myself more time to sit and think, and learned that it is possible to have too much of a good thing. I’ve spent more time helping out (with details held for privacy) and giving. I’d give more of my stuff, but most of that is gone as I moved into my tiny house. I’m looking forward to giving myself more time to write, because I’ve reached the point where writing can be more engaging than watching.

Sip.

I could use a new chair, a new desk, a new fridge, a new range, and some other household things that eventually wear out, but there’s a new year coming and time for that. Besides, for some reason, I think I might move by this time next year. In that case, furniture and furnishings will get redefined then. I like my tiny house, but I do miss being able to readily hold parties. Still working on that. Pardon me as my brain thinks of some other ways to do that besides buying a bigger place.

Sip.

There is no one Christmas, Hanukkah, or New Years. I’m glad. It is nice to see so many different celebrations. The ads can make it seem as if there’s only one formula, but it’s a stereotype that deviates from most true wishes. I spent years (decades?) conforming to that model. It is understandable considering the incessant supply of packaged ads proclaiming the ‘right’ way to celebrate the season. Cheers to all who celebrate as they wish and as they can (within legal and moral guidelines, of course.) Be yourself, even if your gift is finding who you really are. Celebrate with others, because there’s always someone to celebrate with. And thank you for being you and doing what you do (again within legal and moral guidelines, or course, but thankfully, there are few that need to be reminded of such things.)

Sip, and a toast.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Six Minute Recharge – GMGMF

Posted on December 18, 2025 by Tom Trimbath

(Reid, thanks for inspiring my trip to Better Living Through Coffee in Port Townsend.)

The short story: I bought more GMGMF. The slightly longer story: GMGMF announced a solid-state battery that recharges in 6 minutes, which seems like an idea worth investing in. The longer story: I’m glad I’ve been investing long enough that I know that the closest thing to an absolute is saying that there are no absolutes. It’s all a guess.

If you haven’t heard, or if you’re reading this somewhere outside the region of the Salish Sea, or some time after a series of atmospheric rivers have uprooted much of civilized life in the area, reality can get messy. Rivers have carved new channels regardless of where we want roads and such. Hills are sliding. Valleys are flooded. I’m glad I live near Port Townsend, 115 feet above sea level and far from a river.

The coffeeshop where I might meet a friend, Better Living Through Coffee in Port Townsend, is such an authentic seaside cafe that a view out the window could be seeing through a wave that splashed against its foundation. After about the third hit, most folks felt confident enough in the strength of the glass to sit beside waves that would otherwise knock them over. Whether the building is damaged – well – that’s life in a historic seaside town.

I decided to write about GMGMF’s announcement and to be open about the fact that I bought some more stock, but two people at the next table became more of a story.

They were talking so loudly that it was hard to concentrate on anything else, even as waves bashed the building. One was pontificating about their investing strategy. The other was politely listening and asking questions. Note: Only one of the two asked questions. The other spoke with certainty and authority about how to make money. After about ten minutes, I realized that anyone speaking with that much certainty either has little experience in investing, has always been lucky, is trying to sell something to someone else, thinks they have nothing to learn, or some likely combination of those possibilities.

Maybe it was a quiet client listening to a potential financial adviser – who was talking without a care about the conversation happening in public where there’s no privacy.

And a wave hit the window.

And I saw a connection, or at least a personal lesson.

It may not be apparent, but I tend to disobey one of the central pieces of writing advice I’ve heard: speak in clear tones, without equivocation, be confident, and make it dramatic if possible. I at least intend to include the upside, the downside, and where I think things may settle out in the middle. I know how assumptions can be false, or at least incorrect. I won’t list the times I’ve been wrong based on assumptions I’ve made. This blog has about 15 years of examples. Browse at will.

The waves continued to hit the window. Don’t worry, there won’t be a dramatic moment (as I type) because the window held. Of course, the staff shoved some towels against the bottom because the water was getting through, but hey, we are all warm and dry and could keep doing what we were doing.

Investing includes the possibility of risk. See My Triple Whammy for how assumptions I made about the SEC, the FDA, and my reliance on data led to me losing 80% then 98% of my net worth. I’m feeling much better, now; thank you.

In the short time I listened (whether I wanted to or not), I never heard a moment of caution. Maybe they’re brilliant and their method always works. Maybe, folks who have it don’t need to talk about it. If they’re talking about it, it’s probably because they still need it – or the attention.

People also hear what they want to hear. It is difficult to listen to both sides of a story. MVIS is a great story with great potential, but too many have suffered by the interminably long time its progress has been delayed. (How can they Not make money after having developed a projector that fits in a phone?)

GMGMF has a broad portfolio of products that rely on utilizing graphene. See wikipedia for a description. To many, it is a wonder material that can revolutionize the world, ala plastic (I guess). To most, graphene = huh? Plastic probably sounded irrelevant, too, at the start.

One of GMGMF’s products in development has been a solid-state battery. No lithium-ion. Lithium-ion batteries have enabled electric vehicles and much more. Lithium batteries, however, are politically sensitive, expensive, have acceptable but not phenomal range, and are dangerous because they are hard to extinguish when they catch fire. Entire cargo ships have been lost because a car battery caught fire.

GMGMF’s new battery doesn’t use lithium, so its materials are more readily available, is less prone to fire, can be cheaper, can be smaller – and they’ve made on that can recharge in six minutes. The potential (see, there’s that hesitancy) is that such batteries can be the next generation in batteries that further enables electric vehicles, and a greater adoption of other products, too.

Six minutes. Not an hour, not overnight. Six minutes. Cool. And maybe not six minutes, but ten would be acceptable. Maybe not GMGMF. Sure, they developed this one, but there’s competition, all of which may exceed lithium-ion’s capabilities. Maybe they’ll have a production line in place for 2027, but stay tuned. Maybe. Maybe. Maybe.

But.

I buy stocks in small companies that I think have big potential. I believe, but don’t know, that lithium-ion will eventually be supplanted by something better. This could, could, be it. And then it will get supplanted. So goes technology.

Within my investing strategy, I have a few buffers and constraints. I tend to limit the number of shares I own as a hedge against chasing penny stocks too far. I also tend to limit my initial investment. Those are guidelines. I decided to exceed both to buy a bit more, and may buy more again. In this case, my extra purchases only increase my investment and the number of shares by less than half.

Investing can always be optimized. There are always better stocks, which are only apparent in retrospect. I choose to optimize time, too. It would take time to possibly find a better investment, but here is a technology, company, and stock that I am familiar with. By buying a bit more now, I may make a good enough investment.

Stocks are also not lifetime commitments. I can sell as many of my shares as I want, or not. Maybe next year I’ll sell enough to get back under that arbitrary limit. Maybe I’ll buy more. I don’t have to know today. That’s next year.

I like life around the Salish Sea. The weather is usually temperate, until it isn’t, then it’s dramatic, and hopefully the power stays on and the ground stays stable. I also like the fact that I can’t think of a financial conversation I’ve had where the people were wearing formal wear. Camo and REI are more common choices, even if the wearers aren’t in the military or heading out on a hike.

The seaside is real. Nature tests our assumptions. I’m glad our society has developed strong enough glass that we can blithely ignore its assaults, usually. Nature is also a reminder that assumptions have limits, and our society continues to generate innovations that allow better lives than our ancestors could imagine.

And I’m glad my seat was a few extra feet back from the windows. Assumptions are great, but prudence has a value, too.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Affording The Holidays

Posted on December 12, 2025 by Tom Trimbath

Medieval peasants knew about affording the holidays. I see modern ads about affording the holidays by credit card companies. The peasants were smarter. What they did, we can do, no plastic required.

Go ahead and romanticize medieval times. They were tough, at least measured against modern healthcare and technology. But fun has not been a modern invention. Peasants had fun. Sure, they had dramas and traumas, but they didn’t have to go into debt to produce a feast, take time off, get together with friends and family, and be thankful for what they had.

Affording the holidays is a modern invention. Our consumer economy doesn’t demand it, but the companies greatly encourage it. I even sell during the holidays, but I don’t want anyone to buy my books or photos by using credit they can’t afford. Luxuries do make nice gifts, but luxuries are not necessities in many ways.

Pardon the repetition, but I’ll tell you about one of my most memorable gifts: a Nerf ball.

I can’t recall many of my gifts, and I can’t recall who gave and who got the Nerf ball, but it was something between my Dad and me. I wasn’t a kid. I was 25. In retrospect, I was still maturing, but I was also becoming aware that expensive did not equate to appreciated. I was visiting home in Pittsburgh from my new home outside Seattle. It was only Mom, Dad, and me. We sat in the living room, beside the tree covered in white twinkle lights. (My Dad preferred old, warm, colored lights, but without me there, he lost that battle.) One of us opened a very light box, pulled out a Nerf ball, and laughed. My Mom, who appreciated but couldn’t afford the very nice things, was taken aback and wondered why we’d gift a Nerf ball. My Dad and I looked at each other, and bounced the ball off each other’s foreheads. We threw it back and forth – and laughed. My Mom was confused. My Dad and I had fun. I remember that gift from over forty years ago.

There are a few other memorable gifts from the recent decades: a particular mug that I relied on at work because it held so much, ski boots that almost fit but I used for years, – and I pause as nothing else comes to mind. I’m sure I enjoyed gifts every year. I know I enjoyed the time I spent with people. I know I enjoyed a good, basic feast. I know I enjoyed time to relax. I know that there has been almost no correlation between the price of the gift and the enjoyment I received.

Peasants couldn’t afford luxurious gifts, unless they made them. Feasts couldn’t be expensive, but they had a chance at producing quantity, and maybe roasting that goose or making that sweet dessert. They could make music and dance, tell stories and laugh, and care for each other. And undoubtedly, there were arguments and disagreements and slighted emotions because the romanticized notion wasn’t real. But they didn’t have to wonder how they were going to afford the holidays.

Medieval peasants weren’t coerced by ads to buy things they couldn’t afford. They didn’t have Black Friday and Cyber Monday. No batteries were required. There were no returns, though a few days later, there may be exchanges. They weren’t told that the economy required them to spend for the sake of the economy.

Medieval peasants had lives that were tough enough that few of us could survive them as well as they did. But, they knew what to do with holidays and holy days. Enjoy them. Celebrate them. No credit cards required. No monthly payments. No piles of wrapping paper and cardboard boxes. And then, back to work. And then, enjoy the next celebration.

This year will probably be a quiet one for me. Most of my friends are my age, and most are trying to get rid of things, not get more things. Many are so minimalist that I look like a massive consumer, and I expect to not give or get much, which is fine. There are dances on the calendar. Soon, I’ll stock my kitchen with food for the feast. Some drinking may be involved, but no drinking and driving means managing which dances to attend.

I am fortunate enough to be able to buy a few things, mostly consumables. I intend to buy myself a few things that I’ll appreciate and that I wouldn’t want anyone else to buy for me (a standing desk?, a new radio for the Jeep?, a new fridge?). I will surprise me because I don’t know what I’ll buy, and I don’t know how my stocks will perform.

I intend to give out hugs, wrap my arms around friends instead of paper around packages, and sit and sip and appreciate how good my life is. I like that. Besides, the cleanup is much easier, except for the feasts, but that’s good too. I can afford that.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

Gifts Change

Posted on December 3, 2025 by Tom Trimbath

December. December is so different, now. Before I was a teenager, it was about Normal Rockwell moments, gifts, Santa, food, and how about some more gifts. As a teenager, it probably should’ve been about hormones and recklessness, but I remember family, gifts, and enjoying wrapping gifts as much as I did opening them. My twenties, on my own, living frugally and away from ‘home’, so the celebrations were more sedate. Got married, and things shifted to include another’s traditions. After the divorce, I was old enough to reassess what I wanted and needed. Then frugality by necessity hit, gifts were baked, and I was glad to find roadside scrap trees. Now, I can afford a tree, but it and me won’t fit in my tiny house at the same time. What am I left with? What do I want? Things do change.

Congratulations on making it through an overly-long front paragraph, but it proved a point to me, at least. Christmas changed for me as I have changed. Many traditions were passed along, fed to me by media, and shared with friends and family. For much of the time, the main effort was consumerism, ideally reflecting relationships and connections, but frequently, inevitably, temporary. As the people I know age, a core set of traditions remains, and buying and selling have become less important than listening and sharing.

A lot has changed in the world, too. Toys have gone from Red Flyer wagons (though I never saw that specific brand – I think) to mega-brands pushed by massive marketing campaigns. My favorite toy was a Nerf ball when I was in my twenties because it was simple, frivolous, and fun. Movies that were relatively new then are classics now, and can be streamed. Foods have been analyzed to such an extent that the brand name is less important than the labels like GF for gluten-free, or organic, or free-trade. Each such gift gets scrutinized rather than simply shoved in the mouth. We’re more aware of the rest of the world, and the corporations are more aware of each of us.

I’m old enough that there’s little extra I want, and what I want can be so specific that I doubt anyone could guess what it might be. Age, really experience and introspection, has left me with an understanding of what I want, what I need, and what I consider extraneous. Hmm. As I write this, I realize that awareness is a gift I’ve been giving myself for years.

For many people my age, consumables make more sense. Shopping local means more (for local folks). Thrift stores can get so many unfashionable and archaic offerings that they turn away items no one needs or wants. As a kid, I’d lie down on the carpet in front of the family’s six-foot-long stereo as I listened to the radio or music. Now, they represent phenomenal spent resources that are deteriorating in some landfill, piled in with other discarded gear. Meanwhile, food and drink are something everyone uses every day.

A core gift that was never wrapped and not considered a gift was time. Time with each other. Unfettered time alone. Time to think, feel, maybe feed and drink, and to inevitably nap. I can’t remember most of the gifts, but I know there were naps in there, and a desire to spend more time with friends and family.
And friends and family aren’t there always. Sorry for bursting a romantic bubble, but friends and family are people. People age. As a kid, the fact that grandma might not be there was, at best, abstract. At my age, everyone I know is a limited-time opportunity, and therefore, precious. Pardon me as I ponder that while I pause typing.

…

Yep.

I’ve already started sending out cards. I’d like to think that I’ll do that throughout the year. Maybe. Maybe.

I won’t be shopping much, mostly because folks my age have had a lifetime to buy what they want. Some will appreciate some consumables, though.

I will maintain my traditions that fit with my lifestyle. Life in a tiny house means no tree; sigh. But the baking is about to begin, and I’m already planning Christmas dinner. I miss not being able to have a party.

I miss being able to share the meal with friends. There just isn’t enough room. Some decorations will go up, but the majority of them will stay in storage for yet another year. I’ll watch my traditional movies (at least White Christmas on the day and Love Actually for New Year’s).

There will be other things I do that don’t come to mind as I type because I am more likely to let things happen as they will. Sticking to a rigid arrangement misses the opportunity for pleasant reminders and surprises.

The two biggest parts of the season will probably be dancing with friends, and time for myself. Many other things will be appreciated during the holidays, but time and people are most likely to be the most memorable and enjoyed.

Spend time with family, friends, and most important, spend time with your self. Nothing is more precious than time with people, and you are people, too.

Sigh. I guess I’ll add a link to my books on Amazon. Yes. I see the irony. Besides, it gives me an opportunity to realize that, while I’m not giving many gifts, others might want to pass my words along. Thanks for reading.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Shop Local Or Not

Posted on November 29, 2025 by Tom Trimbath

How do I spell that sound I make when I settle into a comfy chair days after a feast? Erf? Ugh? Whew? Whew will have to do, but the sound is more like a balloon slightly deflating, but not a whoppie cushion, thankfully. I’m glad I recently bought a new pair of sweatpants. I’m also glad I’m not driving to a mall, hunting for parking, jostling with crowds, and trying to find which brand to buy from. I’m shopping local, of course. I’m also mostly not shopping. And yes, sometimes shopping local isn’t an option. Reality, eh?

Elastic. What a wonder. Thanksgiving dinner was duck, wild rice, brussels sprouts, butternut squash pudding, and Finnriver cider. Pardon me as I pay attention to my overworked digestive system. I’m past burping, and I won’t describe what’s happening now. Jeans aren’t forgiving. Carhartt bibs are sturdy and don’t bind at the waist, but they’re meant for standing while working, not sitting in a chair while typing. Sweats exist for a reason, frequently not involving sweating. Gotta work on that later. 

Buying sweats is not shopping local, alas. But most of dinner was grown near my house. Nice. Friends benefited. Local businesses benefited, which also benefited locals I have yet to meet. Money stayed in the area, and if they shop local, then the money benefits more of us. Inevitably, some of that money will leak out into the larger economy. Taxes. Yep. But also, things that aren’t made in local communities. Globalization increased efficiencies, but not necessarily resilience. Definitely not community.

Last night’s dance and this evening’s dance will help me work off some of the accumulated calories. The place was packed last night. At the start, kids outnumbered adults. Finnriver Cidery hosts live bands and doesn’t complain when we decide to dance. The adults have fun (and some embarrassment) showing what they’ve learned. The kids didn’t need to be taught. They moved because it was fun to move. Finnriver also sells cider. 

That’s actually why they are there, as a cidery. I thought cider was cider. I guess it is, like wine is wine, but wine also gets much pickier than white versus red. And there are lots of types of apples, and probably many ways to harvest and process them. Sadly, my doctor effectively wags a finger at me about such beverages. 

(One consequence of small town versus big city life is that my doctor visits the cidery too, so I decide not to drink so I don’t have to hide it. Besides, my doctor probably has good health-like reasons for me avoiding such a fine beverage. I’ll still dance there, though. Besides, they have nice teas.)

I can’t drink it, but I can buy it and ship it. And they’re not the only option. Many farms ship food, as long as it keeps well. Locals also make stuff, including stuff that is elevated above stuff and is called art. Good luck finding the borders between stuff, craft, and art. It is local, but it is also more personal. I’m more likely to know the person, but whoever receives my gift also gets a story that is far more personal than yet another shrink-wrapped, branded trinket shipped from an overseas factory. There’s more to talk about when they unwrap it. That’s a bonus.

I am also shopping less. Yesterday was Black Friday, but I went to Hurricane Ridge in Olympic National Park to get some nature photos. (Hey, the road was open – thought icy – and the snow on the ridges was fresh and pretty.) Today, I’m sitting here, typing this, maybe going for a bike ride before going dancing again. I have the time because I have less to buy. 

We are all aging, but most folks I know have aged enough and shopped enough and been given enough stuff that they don’t need or want anything more. The Baby Boom houses that bulged with families also bulged with furniture and things that the next generation doesn’t want, and the current residents no longer need. More has been replaced with less, which has been replaced with “help me get rid of some of this stuff. I don’t want to have to move it because I’m downsizing.” 

Consumables are more popular. Beverages? Sure. Candles? OK. Smoked salmon, cured meats, spices, teas, cheeses, all things that can be used and used up. And, they are things that can be shared. 
Sharing gifts is more than exchanging gifts. Sharing a gift is an excuse to socialize. It is possible to visit, have fun, and to at least temporarily put aside politics. 

It is trite, but visiting someone has become less common, and therefore more precious. Treating each other with friendship shouldn’t seem rare, but to me, that’s one of the best gifts I’ve received.

Another gift to buy is too easy to overlook. Charity and philanthropy are too tightly associated with tax credits and formality. Definitely give, if you can. I find it more fun to give locally, really locally like person-to-person. It is like shopping local, but can reach further. Look around. Listen. You’ll probably hear or see people who have legitimate needs. They may appreciate it more than you can know.

One twist on giving is to give to yourself. Sure, send that thousand-dollar donation to a charity; but how about taking your life up a notch by buying local things for yourself? Bacon costs ~$9 per pound? Yep. But a local ranch produces an excellent local bacon at $24 a pound. That’s pricy, but I get bacon, they get a sale, the money stays in the area, and the only paperwork is the receipt. Need a bowl? Find a local potter. Need a card? Visit your local printer. Get the idea, or do I need to belabor the point? It is easy. Get past any guilt and treat yourself. You may miss out on a tax benefit, but then they’re less likely to need the benefits from the government. And then if they shop local, and if they shop local, and if…

I don’t expect to recognize you on the dance floor. I’ll be paying attention to my dance partner, but I’ll also be watching for everyone else. I don’t get into mall parking lot traffic jams, but crowded dance floors are far more chaotic, and fun. I’ll just try to keep the bumped elbows and stubbed toes to a minimum.
Let’s see, tonight’s event at Finnriver is Holy Carp (Rock / Pop / Jazz / Americana – whatever it is, I’ll dance to it). Music starts at 5PM. I think $5 is typical, but I tend to give a bit more. (5PM? Hey, it gets dark early here. Why wait? There might even be time for dining and socializing after.)

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

20 Months Of Cash

Posted on November 21, 2025 by Tom Trimbath

Twenty months of cash. Twenty months of liquid assets: cash, stocks, whatever I’ve hidden in my socks (inside family reference.) About two years ago, I estimated that I had 20 months of cash reserves. If nothing significantly improved my finances, in 20 months I’d be required to sell my house. Back then, that meant potentially selling into an economy responding to a new administration. I’d rather sell before such a crowd of sellers drove down house prices. I decided to sell my house. It sold in May 2024. I am glad. I also was wrong; I only had 8 months of reserves left when the deal sold. (spreadsheet error) I’m doing much better now. I do miss the view.

But what if I never sold? Did I have to sell? In retrospect, it still looks like it was a good idea. Some jobs did arise, but the south Whidbey economy was being increasingly driven by wealth. Even if I had the money, I couldn’t find contractors for home repairs because the contractors were busy enough with higher-wealth clients. I had a few stocks, but they haven’t moved much. My house’s market value hasn’t shifted either. I did lose the only house I’ve considered a home since I graduated high school, and I do miss the view. Oh well.

But what about the move? How has that been?

I miss the view, and I miss being able to socialize. That’s the consequence of living in a tiny house in a mobile home park (MyTinyExperiment.com). But I now have ~100 months of reserves, no mortgage, and a lot less worry. The equity from my house that I sold paid off my official debts, removed those monthly debt payments, removed those strings to some untrustworthy financial institutions, and cleared my mind from a lot of worry. I still haven’t found a job, and don’t feel that I have to get one. I’m learning to relax, and realizing how insidious anxiety had crept into my life by being poor. Much of that realization has come from being able to hire a therapist, and explore much of that life in my book, Muddling By. 

So, how do I have ~100 months of reserves? Some of it is from the leftovers from the house sale. As I mentioned, some of that money went to paying off debt. The rest went into investments, particularly stocks. (Stay tuned for my semi-annual portfolio review at the end of the year.) Join the unresolvable debate as to whether the doubling of my holdings was intelligence, wisdom, luck, destiny, or is unknowable. A few of my new stocks are up hundreds of percent in the most recent twelve months, and more than that since I bought the original shares about 20 months ago. Whew.

Whew, and I am not assuming nothing is going to change. Regular readers know that one of the stocks (QBTS) was up over 4,000%. Today, it is ‘only’ up >900%. I’ve been investing long enough to have several stories on either side, stocks going up thousands of percent, and stocks falling 100%. And yes, I have a high (though not infinite) risk tolerance. I suspect few folks can weather such a ride. Stocks are weird. The world is weird. The two together are quite confused. And, I think I’ve learned the skills to ride through such turbulence. I hope.

I’m glad I did what I did when I sold a bit of QBTS. (See previous posts.) I sold a quarter of my position as the stock got close to $40. I sold at ~$37. The stock rose to ~$46. FOMO. Then, the stock fell to under $20. Whew. I missed the high, but the shares I sold produced (and I didn’t make this connection until I started typing this paragraph) ~20 months of living expenses. Some of that paid off some personal debts. Some went to charity. The majority is being held back to pay taxes, and as cash in case something interrupts Social Security payments. (Imagine that.) I’m not complaining. Some of my shares were purchased at $0.75.

I don’t expect all of my investments to have such a rise.

I also don’t expect all of my investments to have a catastrophic fall.

This isn’t about bragging. It is about being an example of my version of personal finance. Watch it, but without worrying about it (as much as some would.) Act, but not frenetically. Don’t hang onto an old life, an old set of assumptions and habits, out of habit. Don’t wait too long, either. 

I sit, now, at a bit of a plateau. I’m out of debt, comfortable with my cash and lifestyle. I am also hundreds of thousands of dollars away from moving to a house I like in a place I like with many other things I like. I’m also relieved that, after checking local real estate listings, I don’t need millions. A few millions would be handy (#understatement), but a lot of lottery winnings would simply be better distributed to charities and entrepreneurs. 

All such projections are based on assumptions. Math is objective, but the world is chaotic and random, and people and society are unpredictable. 

Oh yeah, and AI is going to change things dramatically, and much sooner than most people suspect. I suspect the majority of people think AI is something that will affect someone else. Not this time. And, regular readers probably recognize a rarity from me, a strong declarative statement. 

Whatever ride we’ve been on may seem calm in comparison to what is coming.

Ah, another reason to celebrate this milestone, and to be prepared for what comes next. At least I’m further from worry (though not removed from it), have cash in the bank (and let’s assume the bank and the money doesn’t disappear), and have hopes and plans for the future (because while many are preparing for a dystopia, I suspect it is also healthy to plan for a positive future – even if I can’t imagine what it might be.)

I do miss that view. Oh well, there are other views to enjoy.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Both Sides

Posted on November 14, 2025 by Tom Trimbath

Here’s a rarity, telling both sides of a story. Recently, I’ve posted about the successes of a couple of my stocks, QBTS & LUNR. Now, go check the news and probably find scores of articles on a variety of topics. Writing advice I’ve received is to portray a clear, definitive, concise narrative. Regular readers know I am not concise. I try to be clear. As for definitive, most publications stick to one perspective and emphasize it. Only tell the good or the bad, but don’t confuse people with both. Prepare to be confused.

However, I don’t expect any of my readers to be confused. Regular readers have read posts from the ups (DNDN & AMSC), and the downs (DNDN & AMSC), as well as the long-lingering languishing (MVIS).

Life is real. There are ups and downs, and trying to keep my eyes closed for half of it would mean missing a lot.

This week was a week of corrections. QBTS is down about 50% from its spiky high. LUNR is down more than 50% from its high in January; having your rocket lander fall over will do that. Some say sell. I did. I sold a bit of QBTS on its rise. I missed the peak, but I didn’t expect to hit it. I sold a bit earlier. Then, I covered my initial investment. The recent sale realized a profit that covers other investments. I am left with 60% of my initial holdings, and am glad. Sure, the stock is down, but such is the nature of startups.
Sure, LUNR has had two landers land, then tip over. But both companies are not managing by the headlines. Aside from those news items, the companies are progressing their technologies, their products, and their partnerships.

There are no guarantees. There’s the risk. Hopefully, there’s a reward. Hopefully, there are many rewards: advancing quantum computing and space commercialization are nice profits, too.

This does not mean I’m going to go out and celebrate the fallbacks in their stock prices.

Investing in small, startup companies means great volatility. They have relatively few investors. Many of the investors are individuals. Every stock purchase and sale can swing the stock price more significantly than a sale of MSFT. MSFT needs hundreds of millions or billions of dollars in trades to move the price. There are investors who can do that, but they exist in a hyper-competitive realm of financial institutions and oligarchs. I don’t want to have to dance with those elephants. But that also means that my stocks, when found and favored or abandoned, can swing more abruptly.

From what I’ve witnessed, few investors have that level of risk tolerance.

I have that level of risk tolerance, and have felt its consequences.

Within this blog (and in my newest book, Muddling By), I’ve described my Triple Whammy where a moderately diversified portfolio was swung upwards by positive news (DNDN & AMSC), impressive speculation (MVIS), and subsequent shatterings of those dreams. Criminals were responsible for the first two failings. Bad luck affected the third. Having those happen as the Great Recession (the Second Great Depression) was happening, which meant I couldn’t sell my house or get a regular job.

And I’ve continued to chronicle the progress here, in this blog – because the story doesn’t end because I wrote a book, or someone got elected, or a new technology was invented, or whatever.

The recent fallbacks were episodes in an ongoing story. Only acknowledging the highs means ignoring parts of living. Stocks go up and down. I acknowledge both. I may act because of it, but I’m more likely to simply watch it.

One reality of my investing is persistence. ‘Keep at it’ seems a silly phrase for something that is simply doing nothing more than watching, but it also means watching the ups and the downs, and watching them well enough to know when something fundamental has changed. Things have changed at the companies I am invested in, mostly. The biotechs (GERN & LCTX) are progressing through clinical trials and some commercialization. The battery companies (SLDP & GMGMF) are progressing their relative technologies. QBTS is being recognized as more than a quantum computing lab bench. LUNR is surprising some by acquiring companies, almost as if they plan to live up to their seriousness about commercializing space. MVIS, well, MVIS, … If MVIS ever succeeds, maybe I’ll write a book about it. If it doesn’t succeed, decades of investor anxieties will join those from thousands of other failed ventures.

So, yes. There was some retreat in some of my investments, but for me, and for this post, it is important to acknowledge both sides, the ups and the downs, and not to rely on headlines and sound bites that are only one or the other. Life’s more complicated than that. Good.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

Luck And A Bit Of SLDP and LUNR – November 2025

Posted on November 5, 2025 by Tom Trimbath

As I mentioned recently, once upon a time, I’d post my stock trades on the Motley Fool. I posted that when I bought a bit more LUNR. I had some cash left from a sale of some of my QBTS stock, so I bought some more of another of my holdings, SLDP. I thought about waiting before doing anything else, but SLDP went up over 50% today, so I bought a bit more LUNR, again. And that’s probably enough for now. Probably. Maybe.


OK. That’s chronicled. Sold some QBTS, so I bought some SLDP and some LUNR. That’s a concise summary that hides a lot of details. A writer of biographies could summarize each dead person’s history as, ‘they were born, they lived, and they died.’ That hides a lot of details.

Here are some details.

QBTS is building quantum computers. I considered it a risky investment that may take years to become profitable, but if they succeeded, the profits could be impressive. The product could also be as positive and disruptive as something like microchips or the transistor. I was wrong. This blog contains descriptions of some of that success. Currently, QBTS is up more than 2,700% in the most recent twelve months. I sold a bit to cover my initial investment. Then I sold a bit to realize a profit. The rest is unrealized profit, aka owning the other shares for a while longer, possibly much longer.

LUNR is developing a space-based business that is concentrating on lunar missions. I’ll copy and paste a bit of the previous paragraph. “I considered it a risky investment that may take years to become profitable, but if they succeeded, the profits could be impressive. The product could also be as positive and disruptive…”, but instead of chips, I considered LUNR to be more akin to SpaceX. LUNR would be smaller because it mostly works on lunar products and services, while Space X is space in general. It is only up >33% in the previous twelve months, but the historical average is more like 7% to 10%, so, good. And, their failures (like landers falling over) distract people from their successes (being paid for 85% mission success.) Good. Don’t fall over so much. And then they announced a major purchase of a satellite manufacturer, which broadens their business. Good. Glad I bought a bit more.

SLDP builds solid-state batteries. Skipping the technical jargon, Solid-state batteries can be the next generation of batteries past Lithium-ion batteries, which were preceded by alkaline batteries, which were preceded by batteries that couldn’t hold a charge for very long. Next-generation tech appeals to me, especially when it can charge more quickly, hold more power, use materials that are easier to find and mine, and are safer. For someone like me, who remembers pre-alkaline batteries, the potential looks enormous. And, as I mentioned above, “I considered it a risky investment that may take years to become profitable, but if they succeeded, the profits could be impressive. The product could also be as positive and disruptive…” Like. Oh, and SLDP has been chosen by Samsung and BMW to develop a prototype car. The stock is up ~60% in the most recent five trading days, and is up more than 600% since this time last year. Timing? Yes. Luck? Also yes.

Note a common thread. “I considered it a risky investment that may take years to become profitable, but if they succeeded, the profits could be impressive. The product could also be as positive and disruptive…” That is not a guarantee. I have three stocks that fit that description but not those results – so far. I’ve held shares of MVIS, GERN, and now LCTX since circa 2000. MVIS, down more than 96%. GERN, down more than 84%. LCTX, down more than 45%. I’ve lost more than that because those are estimates from historical data on Google, not the exact prices I purchased them at. 

Timing. Yes. Luck? Also yes.

I buy for the long term because, mathematically in my opinion, the stock market is chaotic. It can’t be accurately predicted. Success is anticipated and discussed, and frequently delayed. Failure is rarely sudden and final, and usually relegated to a long list of prudent business considerations. Few of my stocks have lost 100%, though the precise point is moot when the loss is over 90%. Few of my stocks have gained over 100%, though some rise thousands of percent. The gains have countered the losses, though the balancing act had years of bad bounces. (See My Triple Whammy.)

Luck.

Sometimes when I’ve discussed bad luck, I’ve been judged as victimizing my story.

Sometimes when I’ve discussed good luck, I’ve been branded as not giving myself enough credit.

I’m me. I’m reasonably intelligent. I’m also reasonably self-aware. I will give myself credit for my skills and acknowledge my faults, but I will also note that luck, good and bad, has had an influence that was out of my control. This isn’t a statement of victimization or giving myself credit as much as acknowledging that luck has an influence, too. 

I hope I made that point implicitly and explicitly in my book, Muddling By. I’ve been middle-class, a millionaire, and basically muddling by. In retrospect, it is easy to say I should’ve done this or that, but that’s life. In a capitalistic society, it is easy to equate net worth with personal value. Spout a number and an easy categorization shortens conversational introductions. I’ve been in each category, and in retrospect it has been interesting to see me being categorized – and then to realize it is happening to all of us.
Luck impacts wealth, positive and negative, and even though we say we can make luck, random chance happens too.

Hmm. Didn’t expect this post to get here, but here it is. I guess that’s a bit of luck.

Pardon me as I pause my typing to consider that.

(pause)

(breathe)

OK.

These times are dynamic. I’ll skip the politics, except to say that I vote and to thank everyone who votes. If you don’t vote, well, you probably aren’t reading blog posts about personal finance and community. Personal finance is a necessity in this society. Some use it to accumulate wealth. I use it to finance a personal life, and to help others as I can. I research companies more than research stocks, because core business products and services are the basis of a company’s worth. But they, like me, live within a world of plans and luck. Sometimes great ideas fail, regardless of their inherent value. Some ideas appear great because, by luck, they made lots of money. I am sure there is no perfect procedure for making profit, both for companies and people, but we do our best; and I do think doing my best is recognizing that luck plays a role. Sometimes, that luck is positive, and can appear random, and can appear planned. I’ll let the philosophers debate the possibilities. In the meantime, I’ll continue investing, watching the news, researching, voting, – and buying lottery tickets. Hey, I could really lucky in a really good way.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

A Good Week – October 2025

Posted on October 31, 2025 by Tom Trimbath

Good weeks can happen too. There were at least two pieces of good book news, three pieces of stock news, and a compliment or a few. Which to write about? We get enough weird news from the world lately. I’ll share each of these because good news deserves to be mentioned too.

Muddling By

A friend called to read a quote back to me. They’re reading my latest book, Muddling By, and wanted to thank me (or congratulate me?) for writing the following line.

“Visitors to the simple life have a different experience than those who live there involuntarily.”

We live in tourist towns. Tourist towns can be social centers wrapped with rural lands. People can be a mix of local farm folk, retirees, and people temporarily escaping their corporate and urban lives. Some visit the simple life. Some choose to live there. Some do not have a choice. They may all stay in a tiny house on a small acreage, but one is there for the weekend, one is there to relax and recover, and one is there because where else would they go?

And yet, we have to find one set of laws, regulations, and norms that can fit all. That isn’t easy.

And, thanks for the compliment about the quote. There are more like it in the book. (For sale online, but maybe your library can carry a copy.)

Podcast

Serendipity and synchronicity happen. I attended an HSN (Housing Solutions Network?) meeting this week about affordable housing in Jefferson County. I almost – almost – kept my mouth shut. Really, I have tried to scale back from my active life of volunteering and such, partly from doctors’ (note the plural) orders/suggestions, but the unofficial coordinator asked if anyone who hadn’t talked wanted to add an observation. OK. I spoke up.

I spoke up to reinforce the experiences mentioned by a minority at the event. The event was doing good work. The event was like others I’ve seen, people working hard at trying to navigate a way through funding, regulatory, and economic issues to make more housing available. Frequently, the discussion is about how to build more housing. Good. But I heard and emphasized a comment that pointed out the severity of the issue that is easy to overlook.

Some people can’t buy anything. Some people have jobs that don’t produce the income and documentation that lenders and landlords require. They can be the most exposed, and the least represented. Let’s not forget about the homeless, and don’t assume that they want to own or even need a traditional house.
Living in a camping trailer may be a step up, especially to someone living in the forest, yet they are overlooked. They probably have a housing solution in mind, yet they are not permitted, as in officially not granted a permit, to live.

I’ll skip some of the details for privacy reasons, but I realized that we may be able to give them a voice through a podcast. By attending without expecting to participate, serendipity and synchronicity may have enabled some of us to produce and provide such a voice. Stay tuned.

Back To Books
It is easy to remember to mention my latest book (Muddling By), but when I checked its status on Amazon, I noticed that a book I wrote over twenty years ago had a sale. Twelve Months at Merritt Lake was found by a customer. Cool. Some topics are timeless, but given enough time, they can be overlooked, too.



Twelve Months at Merritt Lake was the third in my trilogy of Twelve Month books in the Washington Cascades. Barclay Lake is on the wet side, basically in a temperate rain forest. Lake Valhalla is at the crest. Merritt Lake is in drier terrain where forest fires are more common. So are errant livestock. So are guns and hunters. So is wilderness area that overwhelms humanity in its scale.
Nature’s presence is the core of the book, and is why reading it twenty years later is still appropriate. Read on, and thanks.

Compliments
We can never share every compliment that we think of. We’re busy enough. Taking the time to thank everyone for everything would take all of our time. We’d all be more thankful, but we still need to do the laundry and pay the bills. Besides, a conversation of compliments can be dull, as if we need some simple small talk to smooth out each day’s bumps. And yet, this week has delivered more compliments than usual. I’ve been able to share some, too. I’ll pass along this one that was delivered to me via social media.
“Reading your words is like settling in for a cup of tea while sharing a window seat with a friend.”
See? Social media is good for something. Thanks.

Stocks
Amidst the rest of the week, three of my stocks delivered unexpected and good news.

SLDP makes solid batteries, basically. Most cars use lithium-ion batteries that use a fluid. They also use Lithium. So, getting the materials is troublesome. Fluids leak, and in particular, result in a battery that can catch fire. Lithium-ion batteries got us this far, but there is a lot of work going on for the next generation of batteries. SLDP announced that they are working with partners to make a prototype with BMW. That’s a major step past a lab bench, and good news.

LUNR is known for making lunar landers that land and then fall over. People laugh. People tend to ignore that, at least according to some objective criteria, LUNR has hit 85% of their work items. Add to those items the fact that LUNR will now be working on developing nuclear power sources for lunar orbit. That’s business.

QBTS (what’s its 1-year ROI? Oh. Ah. >3,300%) may be included in a US government plan that will involve the US owning a bit of the stock. I won’t say much more because politics is weird lately, but whether the company wants it or not, the stock responded positively. I don’t buy stock based on politics, but I also try to recognize political realities.


Was there more good news? Certainly. But, as I mentioned above, thanking everyone for everything would take longer than I want to type. Besides, there’s a dance to get ready for, and I just got my first hot-towel razor shave and trim. I might look respectable. I wonder if anyone will notice.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment