Portfolio Swings

Posted on October 9, 2026 by Tom Trimbath

Pardon me as I say “Ouch!” and grimace. Within the last year, my net worth has fallen more than 50%. But, but, but the NASDAQ has gone up almost 19%! Aargh! And yet, been here, done this, wading through it again; but as many of you know, I pass along the good and the bad.

Google Finance

Just look at the chart. Marvelous. A year ago my portfolio was on a streak. I didn’t think it could hold it, but I’ve been here before and know that selling out of fear is a bad idea. I did some profit taking, because I’m not going to pass up a good opportunity to make some spending cash. That’s how I live. There was a second spike which convinced me to take some more (as it started to fall), which is what populates my checking account. Gotta pay those bills.

Ah, to get a new car. There’s enough, but then there’d be little left. A downturn like my portfolio is going through can take months to recover from. In the meantime, cash is handy. Replacing my Jeep would be handy too, but that’s a separate topic and a separate decision.

My style of investing is to buy stock in small companies, wait for them to be found, then profit from the rise in price. 

My style of investing also dissociates my stocks from the general market. The general market is driven by a few very large stocks. Whatever MSFT or AMZN are doing doesn’t matter to stocks like QBTS or LUNR. 

Until it did. SPCX pulled so much interest that money flowed away from many stocks to fuel purchases of SPCX. There is and was a fear of missing out. Bandwagons are built for such journeys. There is currently a romance happening between the investment community and the charismatic mega-caps. There is an expectation that a trillion dollar company means there will be another trillion soon. The investment money has shifted. The revenues are questionable. I doubt that a doubling is sustainable. The NASDAQ is driven by the mega-caps. The NASDAQ is up over 18%

My portfolio is down about 50%. Sometimes, at least in the short term, it is a zero-sum game. 

At the lower end of the investing spectrum, I have an easier time imagining any of my stocks seeing a five-fold increase. Any day now. Please.

Any day now is hope, or a strategy, or a perspective. It is like the strategy I have in investing in the lottery. (Pardon me as I check the jackpot numbers. There’s definitely new car money in there.)

I’m not saying that 50% swings are easy to take. My approach is risky, and risky can mean the possibility of loss. Risk does not require reward, but I take those risks because I think the possible rewards justify it. 

Investing can be a long game. I’ve been investing since 1980. I’m not sure how long my game is going to last. Steady 10% increases are considered aggressive. I can see why conservative 5% increases can work over the course of decades. I might need more sooner. I also have done this before, so I know how it can play out. I also have concerns about the economy and civilization that suggest making the money now may be beneficial because there is a history of currencies crashing. I’m glad I don’t have a mortgage.

My portfolio looks painful but that is compared to a year ago. A year ago, LUNR and QBTS were irrationally high. Hype happens. Fear of missing out isn’t new. My portfolio is still above where it was in May 2025, and definitely above where it was in May 2024, when I’d just sold my house.

I won’t say sitting here is easy. I won’t say that knowing the numbers from years ago leaves me at ease. I’d like that new car. (An EV that I can sleep in for travel.)

I do know that many of my largest holdings have happened because I waited out the market swings. Early companies, small stocks, live in a world where financials are stories, not data. New industries are hard to value. I don’t try. I try to buy into such industries that are confusing now but probably profitable soon enough. 

My approach can sound silly. That’s one of its measures, at least for me. The internet? Okay, I’ll buy into AOL. Expensive coffee? SBUX was fun and profitable to have. Computer animation? PIXR didn’t make sense to many, but it did to me.  I may lose 100% on some stocks, but others can go up much more than that.

GERN, LCTX, MVIS, SLDP, GMGMF, LUNR, QBTS. It is unlikely that they all will succeed, but they might. It is unlikely that they all will fail, but they might. What’s more likely is that some will succeed. Hopefully, they will be enough. Hopefully, my cash gets me there. Hopefully, I remember to concentrate on enjoying this other, non-financial world because living is still more important than investing, for me.

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A Somewhat Failed Bicycle Ride

Posted on October 5, 2026 by Tom Trimbath

Pardon me while I have a seat in a recliner to type. My bike trip was tougher than I expected, but it also showed me something I was interested in. At 67, how far could I bicycle in a day? Not as much as I’d hoped, but for 67, well, enough?

Some historical bicycle stats – mileage in a day

  • 1990 204 miles (STP), road bike with skinny tires, supported
  • 2000 115 miles (Just Keep Pedaling), hard-tail mountain bike, tail wind, loaded for touring
  • 2010 (walked across Scotland instead)
  • 2020 (Covid)
  • 2026 40 miles, same bike as 2000 but with fat tires, no support

I see a trend.

Port Townsend to Sequim by Sunday afternoon
Monday morning made it to Port Angeles. Bailed on La Push because of my lack of knowledge of lodging.
Knee pain not noticeable, but was limited by stamina not joint pain.
I had to ignore most friends because they fed horror stories, not support.

Port Townsend to Sequim, yeah, it was only 40 miles, but it was also >1,700 feet of elevation. Doesn’t seem that bad in a car.

Sequim to Port Townsend was 20 miles
Much of which was flat and sweet, but there were four hills that were so abrupt (and unsigned) that I had to walk. One dumped me because I couldn’t shift fast enough, lost speed, and I fell over.
Well, I wanted to see how far I could go in a day. I found out. I wonder what I’d do on flatter terrain and skinnier tires. Or, is it all just age?

Take a step back and tell more of the story.

There’s a dashed line of a bile trail that leads from Port Townsend to La Push, out on the coast. (Olympic Discovery Trail) They say it is ~135 miles. I live in Port Townsend, ~10 miles from Point Hudson. My dead-end street also dead ends ~100 yards from a new, freshly paved portion of the trail. Duh. It’s there. I should see how far I can go, probably not in a day. Give me a few days and, cool, a long neglected bicycle vacation. 

Oops.

First, take the bus to about a mile from Point Hudson. No reason to eat up mileage that I was about to retrace. The entrance to the Olympic Discovery Trail was 1-2 miles past scenic downtown Port Townsend. Got on that, and was glad for a long climbing grade of ~1.5 miles. Usually I skip the top part of the trail because it parallels pavement, but a Wide Load was there, so, I rode until the trail intersected SR20 again. There was climbing to do, but pavement wins out over mud. Bye, trail, for a while. Up and over the hill, down the other side, and voila, my house. A convenient potty break.

Now, here is a sticky part of the trail. I won’t go into the details, but they’re building a new section to get around one mile of sketchy shoulder on SR20. They’re not done. I’ve ridden the road before. It isn’t good, but when I rode across the US I encountered far worse. Besides, it’s mostly downhill. Mostly. Still, no problems. Ride safe. Be smart. Have good luck. At the bottom, US101.

US101 goes most of the way to La Push, but the trail is supposed to let bicyclists ride there, traffic free – eventually. Like I mentioned, it is a trail of dots and dashes as various parts get built. About a mile along a very wide shoulder and I remet the trail.

I remet the trail, but in the midst of a very long climb, it took a detour that I recollect ends in a hill that is not a problem for a car, but was a grind for me. Highways with wide shoulders are paved and evenly graded. I stuck to the highway. It was a long hil. The trail again met the road, so it was as if I hadn’t detoured. A while later, it departed again (Gardner?), but I remembered it slid off to the right and skipped the peak of a hill. Thanks.

A while later there was a parking lot for the trail, and I needed a break. I was tired. I was feeling old. I was also noticing that there wasn’t any place to sit, so I sat on what I am guessing was a piece of horse infrastructure. Whew. 

Okay. Back on the trail and knowing that it was fairly flat and sliding down to sea level. Thank you, Longhouse Deli for chicken strips and potatoes. Now, about the motorcyclists who talked long and went on about their health issues…But I digress.

From there it was back onto the trail and climb my way back up into Sequim on the trail. Nice. 

Nice, but… My stamina was gone. Big bike? Long climb? Extra years? Probably all of them. But, I got there. The business district of Sequim is mostly flat. Surely I had enough energy to skip the first hotel and go for the last one? Within two miles I was hoping for stop lights, taking every excuse for a break, and pushing myself along. Somewhere in there, I missed the trail signs and didn’t care. 

They had a room. I checked in. They let me take the bike into the room, which is a luxury, and I basically collapsed. 

When I woke, I checked the mileage. Only 40 miles. Gag. Then I noticed that the program also calculates the total elevation gain, >1,700 feet. 1,700!? So much for a nice seaside ride with some ups and downs. No wonder I was tired!

And yet, I was more tired than I expected. Age; good and oh well.

I’ll skip that evening’s chronicle, but by the end of the day I decided to ride farther, to not turn and go home. Tomorrow will be better. Right?

It was. It started out with flat trails through countryside. Sweet. Here is where there should be descriptions of country settings on cool autumn mornings. Maybe later.

And here is where next time, if there is a next time, I’ll turn to go back onto the now-four-lane highway. Within the next few miles, as I mentioned above;

“…but there were four hills that were so abrupt (and unsigned) that I had to walk. One dumped me because I couldn’t shift fast enough, lost speed, and I fell over.”

Yes, it is a trail. The trail is a work in progress. Parts of the trail are excellent. This became a torture. Walking the hills was steep enough. Younger folks may not notice, but I suspect some do. I’ll take the highway with its gentle grades and wide, paved shoulders next time.

Then, the part I dreaded. I knew the road takes a steep dip with a tight corner, and I didn’t want to climb that hill, especially with my bad knee (bone-on-bone, and waiting for some hospital to schedule some surgery.) Thankfully, at the bottom of that hill, in the knee of that curve, is a trailhead parking lot. There, the trail began a downright reasonable and well-placed route to downtown Port Angeles. Whew. Thank you. I made it.

I could’ve gone farther. 20 miles hadn’t used up all my energy. But, La Push is roughly 90 miles away, and there are few, if any, motels along the way. The first part of the trail was flat, but I knew there were hills to climb. Riding into an unknown on a trail with quirks like I’d just fallen into was too much. I was done.

Fortunately, the route is serviced by a bunch of buses. I’ll skip the details, but a transit center was right there. I got on the first of a couple of buses, and got myself home.

I’d prepared for a multi-day ride. One day was possible, but highly unlikely. Two days was under a hundred each day, but I wasn’t cocky. Three days of flat riding was definitely doable. Four days was more realistic, more pleasurable. I hope to scout the rest of the route when I have a bike carrier for my car.

The ride was a reminder of my age, but it was also a reminder that sometimes the best, or at least the better, solution is to trust myself (going where others won’t, as long as I deem it feasible), to take breaks (because human bodies prefer that), and be willing to assume that something official should be wisely ignored. It is a work in progress. I’m glad they’re working on it.

I think I’m going to work on having dinner.

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Even Anti-AI Is An Opportunity

Posted on October 2, 2026 by Tom Trimbath

‘AI is going to kill us all!’ ‘AI is a wonderous gift and tool!’ Sorta kinda? AI isn’t going away. Guardrails may mean nothing if it is already out of its box, hiding in the Internet. As for killing us all, well, we’ve been living with human-generated existential threats since the end of World War II. As for being a wonderous gift and tool, I suspect there are already patients who are alive because of some cure found by AI. What I am noticing is AI’s version of bloatware, features added to existing software that slows it down as it tries to help. Remember Clippy? New does not mean improved. There are, however, opportunities for investing.

Every feature added to software probably included a meeting when someone proclaimed its benefits. (Case in point: Google just interrupted my typing to tell me about a new update to the operating system. I am encouraged to click on the link for more. Later.) For someone, maybe more than a few, they were right. I doubt the updates are always good for everyone.

I only use Microsoft software when the product has to be distributed to the world, or at least to any publication. The library takes care of that. Otherwise, I use Google’s ‘free’ products. Free is in quotes because now I pay for storage. I was a Mac fan, but Apple lost me when they closed their architecture a couple of decades ago.

I realize that I may need a new software solution. I suspect I am not alone.

I am a wannabe-minimalist. I live in a tiny house. Does that help make the point? (MyTinyExperiment.com) The majority of what I need software for hasn’t changed since – pardon the pause as I reflect on my computer usage  – as early as 2005. If digital photos are exempted, my needs have changed much from basically a digital version of a typewriter and some early spreadsheet programs.

I’m looking for those kinds of solutions again as AI is added, forced, into the software I use. I have stopped using some of that software and some of those websites because the AI is Clippy, intrusive, slows performance, and can be buggy. The jokes about autocorrect gone wrong seem to be ignored as if the kernel of any joke isn’t seen as a truth.

For the pro-AI crowd, I’ll hereby acknowledge AI’s recent advances. And no, I am not going to list them because they are so numerous. Drug discoveries alone are phenomenal. Yay. Oh. Yay!

For the anti-AI crowd, I feel your pain, but I don’t see any way we are going to retreat. We don’t like it when someone takes away our toys.

(Obvious personal parenthetical: While I type, corrections to my spelling are highlighted, a handy feature. Note that they are highlighted, not corrected. Communication is tough enough that I don’t need the computer to use ‘sue’ instead of ‘use’. Have fun with your own vocabulary of possible errors. ‘Trial’ versus ‘Trail’.)

But what can we do about AI? I’m taking little steps, little precautions. I’ve already cancelled subscriptions to services that are so enamored of AI that they require more effort to use. (Cancelled Grammarly) Prior to AI, I’d already abandoned Microsoft (except when necessary) and Apple. Google is replacing my favorite hardware, Chromebooks, with Googlebooks, which are more powerful and cost more. There are others. 

I’d like to find simpler solutions to many of my software choices, but legacy issues mean remaining compatible with software packages that have updated themselves. This blog started in 2010. It actually started earlier, but Apple decided to abandon that software. There went 200 posts. 

AI may exterminate us, but I suspect its effects will be celebrated at the same time the added weight of its abilities slows us down. We’re more secure! But how often do you have to prove that you are you? Security is ephemeral anyway, and the time spent proving that you are you takes time away from your life. Ah, and if the system thinks you aren’t you, it has the control over the situation. That situation may be your financial records, your health records, your tax records, etc. AI may not exterminate us, but it may make life tougher for us so we can feed it.

And then there’s AI generated Spam, interviews, customer calls, and a general de-personalization of a person’s life.

Oh woe. Oh me. Oh my.

And in chaos and struggle is opportunity. I am a fan of humanity. Many, and possibly most, people will embrace or at least accept AI. Fine. But in the billions of people on the planet, someone will hopefully make hardware and software that is simple and effective. Imagine that. A word processor that isn’t trying to turn your notes into a book. A spreadsheet that adds up your numbers without trying to crosslink them and create a presentation. Software that shows your pictures, and not just a cropped icon but the actual image in the file. 

I have things to do. Thanks for the help.

Crosstalking them between my laptop and my phone without me knowing means time, effort, and money – and that’s assuming I don’t have to debug anything, chase away cybercrooks, or keep track of apps I never asked for. 

Linux is the answer! But yet again, not. For the non-cyber-savvy, there’s a need for a simpler solution. True, everyone could learn it, except that for some reason, almost no one does. It’s a start, but, ironically, someone has to either build on it, or build something new.

I don’t know the solution, but I am looking for it. I am looking for a simple solution to buy and use, and also to invest in. 

I owned AAPL and MSFT in the 80s. Astonishing that was over 40 years ago. Will there be something to supplant them in their wake as they ‘progress’ into an AI world?

Now, pardon me as I use the computer’s (non-AI) grammar tools to find my errors so I can fix them. (It found 5 prompts to fix. Three of them were what I intended, no need to change. One was to change ‘like’ to ‘it’, when I intended ‘life’. As for the fifth, I can’t remember because I am not a robot.) (And now WordPress sees the same text and flags about a dozen more, all of which were words I intended.)

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Port Townsend Film Festival 2026

Posted on September 25, 2026 by Tom Trimbath

My second?, third time attending the Port Townsend Film Festival. Ta da! Ta da? So much talent. I guess I’ll wander through, pulling in quotes, anecdotes, and a view of a culture that sounds familiar until I get inside it. I have a screenplay (and know that I’m missing an opportunity to plug it up front) which legitimizes my attendance on a ‘professional’ basis. For me, it is also people watching, trend awareness, and cultural diversity of a sort.

So here I sit, in the attendees’ lounge typing this post. Shouldn’t I be participating? Yes. Yeah. And no need. I am 67. The urgency behind loglines, collaborations, and smoozing has faded. But. This is a learning experience; trends and such. It is a networking opportunity; smile and nod and hand out those business cards. It is a people and culture watching experience; rich v poor, urban v rural, east v west v PNW, international v USA.

Okay. I guess I’ll mention my screenplay. A longer description will reside on TomTheWriter.com . Sorry, logline fans, here’s the wandering description. It is a true story from the tall ship era. My great grandfather was enough of a brat that he looked forward to getting kicked out of the house at 14 in 1876. He ticked off his grandfather. He was told if he did that again, he’d get kicked out. Cool. Oops. Granddad had power. ‘Kicked out’ meant kicked out of the country. It was Wales, not a touchy-feely existence. On Monday morning he was a cabin boy on a tall ship traveling from Liverpool to Calcutta. He took notes. I have them. The screenplay is his story almost told his way.

I had to tell some of the adults’ stories. A tall ship meant the 1876 equivalent of a cargo ship, in this case, salt. Salt carried thousands of miles across salt water. There’s a colonial message. And a whale sneezed on him. And he was hazed and hazed them back. Then there was British-controlled India, colonialism as seen through the eyes of a 14-year-old. Economic imbalance, inherent racism, British chauvinism, and believe it or not, magic. And a soldier’s suicide. And a tsunami.

And on the way back to New York City, an unsolved murder on board. Imagine, a ship with a few dozen men, and one of them is a murderer. They never solved it, so they fired the crew – except for my great grandfather. Not a brat anymore.

Sorry, I guess that’s the longer version. I haven’t figured out the one sentence logline.

Film is a different industry. I learned that there’s a difference between film and movie. My screenplay is probably a movie (~$80 million) and hopefully entertaining. Film, at least as I can figure, is topics, advocacy, and non-fiction; and usually a few million at most. So, film isn’t directly applicable to my movie, but the festival is in town, and the language and culture are different enough from a mainstream existence. And the fashions are worth seeing. (I’m wearing basically bland, of course.)

So why mention all of this? For me, it is yet another way to view the world. The mainstream is worth knowing about, but the mainstream started as an off-shoot. As I sit here typing, there are a few conversations happening behind me. Passionate people may only see one issue; the world is described by that view. If they listened to each other, they’d expand their world without leaving this room.

For my personal finances, I reflect on other times of turmoil. World War II was terrible and is convenient to reference. Casablanca and To Have And Have Not are films filmed during the war. They didn’t know how the war would go. Who would win? Yet, they made the movies; an act of courage and not of ignorance. They provided insights into things like rationing and sacrifice.

Where are those movies for now? I hope to notice some of that here. Unfortunately, while politics is being advocated here in the lounge, the films being shown are social injustice, yet the news also mentions AI. At least climate change is represented.

Here is also an insight into the haves and have-nots. Even though this is not movie territory, there is a distinct cultural, fashion, and attitude difference between those who can fund films and those who can make them. Don’t upset the money. Don’t flaunt the money. Lots of delicate balancing acts, and evidence that we are not a class-less society.

Like I mentioned, I find such gatherings fascinating.

This is a film festival, so there are film showings. I am here to learn, so I attend the forums, the discussions about the process.

The lounge folk have found the switches for the background music. It must be time to post this and get a cup of tea. Hopefully I’ll find time tomorrow to describe my screenplay. The story about how the notes came to me are yet another story.

For now, post, tea, and learn. Those are all investments, too.

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5 And 10 Goes Away

Posted on September 18, 2026 by Tom Trimbath

They probably think it won’t matter. I doubt that their profit/loss statement will show an impact. But the bank I cheered on for dispensing dollar bills in denominations less than the 20s now only does 20s. I live in a $5 world. I live there by choice. Many live there by necessity. It is easy to feel cut off and left behind. Want some cheery news to come out of this? I can’t find it, unless you own the bank.

“At least one bank is not ignoring a segment of their customers and their needs.
…
We’re witnessing a fracturing of society between oligarchs and the rest of us…” – From 5 And 10

Woe and ow.

No problem. Take that $20, walk into the branch. Ask the teller for change. – As long as you have an account with them and they’re open. If you have the time, of course.

It is inevitable. Coins are considered trivial by some. (How many old devices needed a quarter to turn a screw to open a hatch?) The penny is gone? Fine. Nickels? Same, at least for me. Dimes? Kinda on edge, but willing to accept it going. Quarters? There’s a sign that carry a bunch of coins are a nuisance rather than a representation of value. 

$1 bills are less significant thanks to inflation. $2 bills were never more than a curiosity. 

$5? $5 gets me into concerts and dances, becomes a small but meaningful tip. $5 may not buy lunch, but it gets close. 

I live in that $5 world.

Many do not.

Cashless is king! Unless you’re running a small business and banking fees are eating up your plastic profits. But many do live cashless lives. Money clips are popular, but not for carrying money. They carry cards. In a world run by $50 and $100 purchases, $5 bills are nuisances. 

Deciding for the ATM to only dispense $20 bills demonstrates a disconnect with people who are doing real work, not work in cubicles and offices. How many people have lost touch with how much they are spending because signing the receipt (with a scrawl that isn’t a legible signature) for $20 takes as much effort as signing for $200? Financial literacy education was rare twenty years ago. Now? Can you imagine most folks trying to balance a checkbook?

I guess I spent most of my life being naive. I thought companies sold goods and services in exchange for an asset. It may still be true, but businesses are aiming for cash flow, not necessarily an exchange. Some businesses, like banks, are less interested in serving their clients and are more focussed on extracting value from them. 

It’s always been that way? Yes, and no. The shift is subtle and significant, in my opinion. 

Assuming the world runs on big bills and flowing electrons works for millions, but not for all. For me, services like banks and hospitals should work for all, not excluding anyone. 

But like I mentioned above, services are businesses now. Customer needs are secondary or tertiary to profit margins.

Am I griping? Yeah, I guess so. For me, it is like watching a friend, or at least an acquaintance, become enamored of alcohol; they caught a taste of more so they want more, more, more. I guess I am more sad than griping. 

I live in a community. I’m a full-timer, so I get to see the tourism places profit during the season, then try to squeak by the rest of the year. Cheaper food and cheap entertainment become heightened in importance.

Today is Friday. I usually spend my afternoons at a local cidery. I can’t drink what they serve (doctor’s orders), but I can relax and dance. $5 for the dance. <$5 for a cup of tea. Maybe a grilled cheese sandwich (gluten-free, of course). ~$7

Dinner and dancing in The Big City spends more on that in gas and parking. The trip goes on a card.

I bid the era goodbye. I’m lucky enough to have enough cash to soon have a local account. I am lucky enough to have enough time during banking hours to occasionally walk to say hello to a teller and ask for some $5s. I feel sorry for those who live in that $5 era by necessity, not by choice; who may be working enough jobs that they can’t access a teller; who have to get change by buying something with cash and hopefully getting the bills, and maybe coins, that they need.

I wonder how long it will take the banks to get rid of the tellers, too. Probably already happening, just not here, yet.

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Frugality And Beans

Posted on September 11, 2026 by Tom Trimbath

Gotta remember to soak those beans tonight. Tomorrow I plan to make baked beans. Make baked beans? Yes, make baked beans. Granted, a can of beans is cheap, but there are advantages to knowing how to do things yourself. Eventually I’ll learn how to wire a plug or fix a roof leak, but for now, I’ll do what I know how to do and make baked beans. And I’ll be glad for whatever else I can do.

Baked beans. Soak beans. Bake them. Okay, it is more than that. Go check websites and cookbooks for details. The way I make them won’t be much cheaper than a can, but I’ll know what’s in them. I have a variety of food constraints that I will not bore my readers. Reading the back of a can should be sufficient, but I can make stock from roasting a chicken, add onions and mushrooms, cheat by using tomato sauce out of a can (I tried making it and won’t go to that extent again), maybe some bacon, and definitely herbs and spices. Bake it for hours and hope.

I’m glad I know how to do that. I also know that cleanup will take a long time. So it goes.

I mention this because it is an example of an answer to a question someone asked me. “What can you do to get ready for AI?” We’re about to enter an era when that is asked by people who have been busy doing other things. AI is just for geeks, right? Maybe. Maybe not. My answer is to concentrate on the things you can control. For most people, the tech talk is incomprehensible. From what I hear, even the techies are confused about what to do to get ready, both in a good scenario and otherwise.

Dinner just beeped. Frozen meatloaf I made weeks ago. Homemade, of course.

There are too many possible scenarios to list. There are too many to research. Most of them are out of our control. 

Frugality. I’m sure you’ve heard about it. My definition is to respect your resources.

I’ve been involved in tech since 1976 when I learned to program FORTRAN on punch cards. Throwback. I follow AI enough to understand that the upsides and downsides are both possible, and will likely arrive together, not just one but both. About the only reasonable control I have is to not use it. It may be great. It may be literally terrific. I can’t control that. I’ll try to be aware, but I’m not going to try to drive it.

I wish I was more of a DIY kind of person. I was trained as an engineer, but I worked with airplanes, rockets, and satellites. I can make baked beans, but on Monday my Jeep goes into the shop because I’ve given up trying to fix a car.

Others I know fix their car, their appliances, get creative with home projects, and should have a YouTube channel. These folks engage so little with modern life that they’re already somewhat removed from the influence of AI.

The people I worry about are the ones who will feel compelled to buy smart phones, smart cars, smart houses, and smart appliances which might become bricks because a subscription failed, or a company went bankrupt, or a software glitch glitches. 

I’ve got a bicycle, can cook, can entertain myself without electronics, and thoroughly enjoy real conversations and helping others. I’m busy. 

If the optimistic AI scenario dominates, then I’ll try to catch up; and I’ll probably still be ahead of many. If the pessimistic AI dominates, I’ll be busy adapting;  and I’ll probably still be ahead of many. And I’ll probably have to do a bit of both.

(But really, the health insurance call I got from their AI had enough non-sequitors that it was funny, sad, and worrisome .)

It is interesting writing about frugality. Frugality is effectively simplicity, yet requires many words to describe it. It is easier to buy the brands, listen to the ads, and crank up the credit card. Easier, for a while.

Dinner is ready. I am hungry. I’m not even going to take a photo of my meal. Photogenic was not on my list of requirements. It will be a simple meal, not gourmet, but good enough for me. I gotta remember to soak those beans overnight too.

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Do Stocks Come Back

Posted on September 4, 2026 by Tom Trimbath

It’s Friday. It’s time to write. My stocks are down, regardless of the overall market. I have some cash, whew, and am getting tempted to buy back in. Some companies that I thought were gone continue to linger, maybe even show signs of life. Decisions: do nothing while waiting for stocks to recover, buy back in to stocks I already own, or buy back in to companies that have somehow survived their particular turbulence? Decisions. Decisions.

Do stocks come back? Of course, sometimes. Dendreon, my darling stock that was crashed by some white collar crime still has a web site. Yay! Iridium’s satellites continue to provide emergency communication services, after being inundated by corporate debt. America Online, Yahoo, Myspace are all still there, even if Google and Facebook grab the headlines.

And some don’t.

I am not going to list the companies I’ve invested in that disappeared. There are too many. I invest in small companies and hope to sell the stock when their stocks become popular and profitable. It is a risky strategy, but I have less competition for those stocks than for industry mega-caps like MSFT and AAPL. They have teams of analysts who supposedly precisely price the company, or at least the stock. I invest in companies that are so small that they are largely ignored, at least for a while.

Those small companies that failed lost ~100%. (It is hard to hit exactly zero and still be able to sell them.) PIXR, SBUX, FFIV went up by a little and a lot. One stock climbing 1,000% covers a lot of 100% losses.

‘Buy when the fear is high’ vs ‘Don’t try to catch a falling knife.’ 

Two stocks I held for a while have re-entered my consciousness, or at least my social media feed: XOS and WNDW. A while back they looked bad and I sold before zero happened. I’m considering them again, but first have to check the research and evaluate whether their resurgence is a valid business consequence or sentiment and marketing. 

MVIS, LCTX, and GERN are current holdings that are in similar camps. MVIS has yet to make a profit, or even a valid product; and I’ve held it since 1999-ish. LCTX is like many biotechs, promising, but possibly just flirting. GERN finally has a product, but it is as if they are hoping rather than selling.

And yet, there is good news for all three. Profitability real soon. Right? I’ve held all three for decades. ‘Real soon’ is something I see on the discussion boards. Good luck. I’m hanging onto the shares because the losses are worth carrying along, and potential remains high. But, ‘real soon’? Yeah. Nah.

And cash. Cash is good. Cash isn’t an optimizing strategy, but cash is a necessary resource in this economic system. Besides, it might be time for a new (possibly used) car. I want to have enough to pay for my knee surgery if Medicare hiccups. And cash is living expenses, currently months of supply.

I’m in no rush. 

But I also know that opportunities don’t linger. 

As I stare across the room to another monitor, my stocks look mixed as I type.

I ponder, and what you’re reading is my real time mental machinations. Messy, eh?

Take a sip of tea.

XOS seems to be sliding over to the energy delivery field, instead of EVS. WNDW seems to be doing what it’s done, but with flexible solar panels instead of window coverings. I say ‘instead of’, but they may both be working on those old segments as well. Hence, more research.

The biggest drivers in my portfolio are LUNR and QBTS. Both are up over 100% from when I bought them. Both have ill-defined upper limits because both are helping define their markets: commercial space and quantum computing. Both are down over 50% from their highs. Irrational pessimism followed by irrational optimism with a mix of temporary doubt while major funds shifted to SpaceX as if SpaceX can readily rise much higher. Buy back in?

Buy back in to WNDW, or XOS, or both?

Buy more MVIS, LCTX, GERN or a mix?

Hold onto cash? I’ve studied enough history to know that currencies can fall too.

Do I have an answer? No. I’m writing a blog post about the situation. But so many experts and pundits survive by describing what they did, but rarely what it’s like to be doing it. I’m doing it, even though I don’t exactly know what it is – yet. Stay tuned for the bumpy ride.

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A New Podcast – Traffic Jam at the Intersection of Health and Housing

Posted on August 31, 2026 by Tom Trimbath

You may have seen this among my various social media posts:

“A couple of us decided to give homeless (unhoused?) people a voice. They aren’t stereotypes. They are people. It is amazing to see how hard we make it for people to simply live.“

A new Podcast: Traffic Jam at the Intersection of Health and Housing. (And I helped a bit.)

On Spotify (~43 minutes):

Yes, I’ve helped start yet another podcast. I’m glad. Amidst all the talk about homelessness and affordable living, B. Alice and I decided to get past the stereotypes that feed the media and debates. These are people’s lives, not tropes or generalizations. One answer doesn’t fit all. 

Rather than blather on about our impressions of the situation, we decided to let them tell their stories. Some will have jobs. Some will have kids. Some will have parents. Some want to be left alone. Many can’t reveal their situation for fear of being ostracized. We may have found a way to let them tell more of their stories. 

Along the way, the host, B. Alice, noticed that with uncertain housing comes uncertain health care. One study in Seattle found that giving people a place where they could lock up their prescriptions meant there was less theft, and therefore lower costs; and having ready access to reliable supplies meant they were less likely to rely on emergency rooms, and therefore lower costs. The lower costs were enough to balance out the price of providing a home.

Every person I know who has troubled housing has some solution that works for them. Sometimes it is a place to park a car, or pitch a tent, or moor a boat, or build a cobb house, or, or, or… They have solutions but they are not permitted to enact them. Literally, land use permits are denied. Usually, the denial comes from not owning the land for whatever they think works. They frequently have solutions in mind. There are even solutions for providing land.

Having listened to enough of them, I know that they should explain those situations. Hence, the podcast.

B. Alice runs a company in Port Townsend. For much of her time there, she had to hide that they ran the business out of a tent on the end of a long extension cord. She’s the host (and I simply helped), so it makes sense to let her describe her situation first. I almost lost my house in the mid-2010s, and was poor for about a decade. I wasn’t homeless, but I could see it from there. I have a few comments too.

As it says on Spotify;

“Traffic Jam At The Intersection Of Health And Housing is a solutions-based investigative journalism podcast about the increasingly dangerous realities of obtaining housing and proper healthcare in our modern United States of America. AL and contributing partner Tom guide listeners through a larger conversation about society’s relationship to the social contract–and encourage those experiencing the impacts of systemic oppression to define what help means for themselves. When we listen, it turns out there are as many solutions as people experiencing hardship.“

These are people who are living, somehow, in these dire situations today. While meetings are convened and comments collected, these people can be living in the weather, every day and night, now, today. They may even have solutions, but don’t have the luxury of spare time to attend public meetings, or research which official to contact. Jobs, families, and chores can account for their every waking moment. 

There are several episodes scheduled and getting ready to be published. There are lots of stories that are too real to be covered in the news. These are people’s lives, not sound bites and political proclamations. 

We hope that their perspectives can help them find solutions.

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Watching Change Patiently

Posted on August 28, 2026 by Tom Trimbath

Where’s my tea? Ah. There. It is my weekly exercise in wondering and typing about the changes in my world, and for this blog, particularly in personal finance, community, and stuff. The world’s changes are accelerating, and yet, patience is required. Tomorrow is usually like yesterday, until it isn’t. Here’s a review of what I’ve been watching, and sometimes waiting on, and sometimes seeing happen too quickly.

Politics

Gad. I don’t like most political systems, but at least the best are temporary. Regimes and administrations make their influence, and then the next sweeps them away. Somehow, our civilization has progressed (and as icky as it feels, over the course of a thousand years, we’ve progressed, generally and globally). The US system has some obvious flaws (duh) but I am keeping in mind that, within the system as developed, change will happen on or before November 7, 2028. So far away, yet closer by a day every day – as long as the US laws don’t change. Patience, which can be painful, but patience.

Technology

At least one CEO has said it, we’ve entered the Digital Singularity. When I wrote my first scifi book, Firewatcher, I thought projections of 2100 missed the point. I suspected it to happen more like 2040. By the time I finished writing the book, September 2022, some of those things were happening. While the internet era saw change doubling the state of the art every 18 months, this era sees the change doubling every 4 months. That suggests that AI and such will have advanced by 100% by the end of this year. By the time of the US election, AIs and such will have doubled, doubled, doubled, doubled, doubled, and probably doubled. At the same time, politicians and governments may have barely budged. Interesting times. And one reason to hang onto cash, and one reason to realize that cash’s value may crash. (Pardon the word play, but I just wanted to do that.)

Social Injustice

I mention again, Best Sleepover Ever, something that I’m identifying as a hint and partial proof that people, not politics or organizations, can enact great change and faster than they can be aware of. The message has far fewer gatekeepers. That is good and bad. The bad has had its turn. Now it’s the good turn, or so I hope. Trying to keep it positive, and remembering my quote of, “I like people who treat people like people”, because all of the other labels have caveats, asterisks, and stereotypes. Caveats, asterisks, and stereotypes were shorthand, but it is shorthand that is easy to get distracted by what was rather than what shall be. Be real. Be a person. The rest is marketing.

Climate Change

I didn’t expect to have yet another climate change story enter my awareness, yet there are two. To me, climate change was something to rectify during the first Earth Day. Every year since has been taking us further from a solution, yet here we are, having to debate about whether to do anything about it. Just recently, the oceans hit a new record temperature. Within the last week, yet another glacier has collapsed, this time wiping out entire villages. I think when a glacier collapses in Antarctica, no one notices much. When a glacier collapses within sight of a security camera, there’s much greater outcry. And yet, too many will ignore the reality, sometimes simply to exercise their freedom of speech and to be proudly and loudly ignorant. From a systems perspective, we are decades away from cleaning up this mess, at best.

So What

It is kinda spooky to be watching trends play out that shouldn’t be surprises. Like someone said about disaster movies, ‘They usually start with some scientist making some warning, that everyone else ignores.’ Sounds about right. Frequently, it seems that those scientists are rarely visible at The End, while some celebrity claims the credit for saving the situation.

Personally, I watch enough to be worried, and I am also aware of how often I’ve been wrong – and how often I’ve been right.

Pardon me as I sip my tea.

Being in the midst of change is rarely easy. Old habits can backfire, though fundamental truths reveal themselves. Businesses can show themselves as being archaic. Frugality yet again shows its value. 

All is not lost. As usual, all is an average of a chaos that no one controls. 

All I can attempt to control is me. I don’t think politicians are listening to me. Technology listens to oligarchs and hackers. Social injustice is working through millennia of our bad guesses at how we run things. Climate change, well, I’m a minimalist, but not rich enough to be self-sufficient, yet.

My actions? Vote. Don’t run to either technical extreme, but remember that life is more important than our supposed control of electrons. Cheer on the advocates, but personally watch and help individuals because the rest can be catchphrases and not action. And apologize to the planet, to Nature as I have an impact that I hopefully minimize without withdrawing totally.

And keep cash on hand, the emergency kit stocked and ready, passports and such up-to-date, and my investments in stocks. Tomorrow will probably be like yesterday, until it isn’t.

Hopefully, there will still be tea.

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Worries And Celebrations

Posted on August 21, 2026 by Tom Trimbath

What to write about and how to write it. Hmm. That implies a plan. Ha! And yet, life is filled with stories. That’s true for all of us, in my opinion. In my opinion, writers simply have learned to notice the drama and trauma and celebrations that happen around us. Whether anyone is interested in any story seems like something that can be planned, but art doesn’t work that way. Here I sit, just outside a tourist town during a drought. There are people and chores and patience to notice. 

A drought? Blech. I like rain. I particularly like drinking water and cleaning myself. (Hmm. Sounds like a cat.) This town (Port Townsend) has one source of water, one pipe, and one critical failure possibility.

The tourists don’t notice. Many of the residents don’t notice. We assume water, power, sanitation, health, police, and schools are naturally available. Tourists can have higher expectations, thanks to a pleasant setting and marketing materials. Residents are busy trying to live their lives, arranging and enabling groceries, chores, and things like jobs.

The drought will get a hiatus this weekend. Various parts of the Puget Sound are the driest parts of the continental US in August. Deserts are drier, until they get their monsoons. We might get some rain, for a while. Stay tuned. We may even get lightning, but this part of the US has the lowest probability of that. (Southern Florida has the highest, which is ironic considering that we launch rockets from there.)

I will appreciate the rain. The tourists may not. Someone may complain.

Frugality can be seen as the appreciation and respect of the resources available to you. That includes fresh water. And housing. And hospitals, and police, and power, and a very long list.

I long for having a fresh water supply that is more robust, even if it is having a backup well on the property. I am dismayed at the policies that discourage home generated power like solar. I also look forward to a productive garden, which as I understand it, is not allowed within the HOA rules. (Life in a tiny house: MyTinyExperiment.net) I’d prefer to use the local hospital, but evidently, I am not healthy enough to heal. One county over has a hospital that defers to my local one. Another hospital in another direction may supply the service, but rural hospitals have small staffs, and one vacation means a one month delay in my treatment. (Knee stuff)

But, I do have that other option, the water seems to be flowing, I currently (sorry for the accidental pun) don’t need another source of electricity, or food, or the rest of the basic utilities. I am glad for what I’ve got.

And, still, I complain. The tourists are here to get away from a life they may complain about, and some still complain. (Serious question that may not be resolved: When did we start complaining so much?)

Best Sleepover Ever – That was a wave of not complaining. It was a wave of celebrating. Now’s the inevitable backlash with rumors of government intrusion, but I’m convinced that enough of it was real to be glad.

I hope that celebration stays with us. Lately, I’ve been seeing relationships starting up again, as if they were put on hiatus during the pandemic (which isn’t really over yet, but that’s a more complex story.) I’m seeing small, but maybe not small, social revolutions where entrenched organizations are being challenged by new ideas. Attempts to return us to supposed halcyon days of before I was born are falling and failing as renewable energies and general decentralization are setting anachronisms to the side. Change is always the only constant, and changes are being made.

I still worry about certain aspects of AI, intransigent social injustices, definitely climate change, and strive to ignore politics that’s played as a sport. 

But. The drought means I don’t have to mow the lawn. The tourists may be in town, and the town needs their money; but soon comes the welcome shoulder season when the weather is agreeable and the traffic abates. I’ve finished the first draft of my next book (the third in my scifi trilogy that includes Firewatcher). Some docs have had some good news (it’s the system that seems to be the problem. I’m out of mortgage debt. I can afford small splurges. I even have compliments on my books left to adorn my windshield.

There are definitely problems to fix personally, in the community, and globally; but there are also things to celebrate. The bad things headline the news. The good things are usually closer and more personal. Gotta be aware of both.

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