It’s Friday. It’s time to write. My stocks are down, regardless of the overall market. I have some cash, whew, and am getting tempted to buy back in. Some companies that I thought were gone continue to linger, maybe even show signs of life. Decisions: do nothing while waiting for stocks to recover, buy back in to stocks I already own, or buy back in to companies that have somehow survived their particular turbulence? Decisions. Decisions.

Do stocks come back? Of course, sometimes. Dendreon, my darling stock that was crashed by some white collar crime still has a web site. Yay! Iridium’s satellites continue to provide emergency communication services, after being inundated by corporate debt. America Online, Yahoo, Myspace are all still there, even if Google and Facebook grab the headlines.

And some don’t.

I am not going to list the companies I’ve invested in that disappeared. There are too many. I invest in small companies and hope to sell the stock when their stocks become popular and profitable. It is a risky strategy, but I have less competition for those stocks than for industry mega-caps like MSFT and AAPL. They have teams of analysts who supposedly precisely price the company, or at least the stock. I invest in companies that are so small that they are largely ignored, at least for a while.

Those small companies that failed lost ~100%. (It is hard to hit exactly zero and still be able to sell them.) PIXR, SBUX, FFIV went up by a little and a lot. One stock climbing 1,000% covers a lot of 100% losses.

‘Buy when the fear is high’ vs ‘Don’t try to catch a falling knife.’ 

Two stocks I held for a while have re-entered my consciousness, or at least my social media feed: XOS and WNDW. A while back they looked bad and I sold before zero happened. I’m considering them again, but first have to check the research and evaluate whether their resurgence is a valid business consequence or sentiment and marketing. 

MVIS, LCTX, and GERN are current holdings that are in similar camps. MVIS has yet to make a profit, or even a valid product; and I’ve held it since 1999-ish. LCTX is like many biotechs, promising, but possibly just flirting. GERN finally has a product, but it is as if they are hoping rather than selling.

And yet, there is good news for all three. Profitability real soon. Right? I’ve held all three for decades. ‘Real soon’ is something I see on the discussion boards. Good luck. I’m hanging onto the shares because the losses are worth carrying along, and potential remains high. But, ‘real soon’? Yeah. Nah.

And cash. Cash is good. Cash isn’t an optimizing strategy, but cash is a necessary resource in this economic system. Besides, it might be time for a new (possibly used) car. I want to have enough to pay for my knee surgery if Medicare hiccups. And cash is living expenses, currently months of supply.

I’m in no rush. 

But I also know that opportunities don’t linger. 

As I stare across the room to another monitor, my stocks look mixed as I type.

I ponder, and what you’re reading is my real time mental machinations. Messy, eh?

Take a sip of tea.

XOS seems to be sliding over to the energy delivery field, instead of EVS. WNDW seems to be doing what it’s done, but with flexible solar panels instead of window coverings. I say ‘instead of’, but they may both be working on those old segments as well. Hence, more research.

The biggest drivers in my portfolio are LUNR and QBTS. Both are up over 100% from when I bought them. Both have ill-defined upper limits because both are helping define their markets: commercial space and quantum computing. Both are down over 50% from their highs. Irrational pessimism followed by irrational optimism with a mix of temporary doubt while major funds shifted to SpaceX as if SpaceX can readily rise much higher. Buy back in?

Buy back in to WNDW, or XOS, or both?

Buy more MVIS, LCTX, GERN or a mix?

Hold onto cash? I’ve studied enough history to know that currencies can fall too.

Do I have an answer? No. I’m writing a blog post about the situation. But so many experts and pundits survive by describing what they did, but rarely what it’s like to be doing it. I’m doing it, even though I don’t exactly know what it is – yet. Stay tuned for the bumpy ride.