New AI Insights So Soon 042223

Posted on April 22, 2023 by Tom Trimbath

Writing about AI again? I wrote about it a few weeks ago. (Chat GPT And Change) Why write about it again so soon? Things are developing that quickly.

I follow lots of topics. AI is one of them. 

AI, now, feels like the internet in 1995. I’d been aware of Arpanet/Internet since 1983, then watched it boom and bust with everyone else around 2000. Yet, it didn’t really bust. Many companies were broken and bankrupted, but our usage of it grew from a curiosity to part of our lives to where some people spend most of their days for work, school, news, and socializing.

The adoption of the internet looks obvious in retrospect. But there was time when we had to Capitalize Internet because it was that novel. Now, the internet is lower case ‘i’.

Computers went through a military and industrial phase, but for most people they were a curiosity. PCs? Who needs one? They’re only good at home for managing recipes. Now, computers are so ubiquitous that they’re in our pockets. So much for those tower stations built into special rooms in upscale suburban houses.

AI is something that’s intrigued me for decades. I’m not an expert, but I know some. 

That previous post, Chat GPT And Change, chronicled much of that history. Since then I’ve been respecting the possibility of even more rapid changes by more reading and researching. That work continues because 1) the technology continues to evolve, and 2) users are becoming aware of real rather than speculated realizations. I realized it made sense for me to update my thoughts because, as I read the work of others I realized I ignore source material that is more than three weeks old.

Three weeks, and that news from a month ago is already out of date.

Once upon a time there was a PBS show called Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser. Watching it after the market closed on Fridays was a regular event. After years of the familiar pace of topics and discussions, things started to change. Topics made no sense to some of the commentators. Guests were exasperated as they tried to explain the internet, which had been around for years, to financial experts. Guests talked about eyeballs, a measure of internet traffic and a land rush as people bought up domain names. It was obvious that some commentators thought the guests sounded silly. Selling books online? Why?

AI? Who needs it? Chat GPT? It’s only mimicry. Right? Sure, it is artificial; but is it intelligent?

Companies are already ‘hiring’ AIs to do simple things like write short articles (something I did six times a day for a national real estate news site, some of which could be handled automated), or generate stock images for ads, or…? The legal profession is realizing it can use AIs to sift through far more documents – and possibly summarize the results. These are a few of the real actions I’ve seen mentioned. There are undoubtedly far more.

PCs do more than sort recipes. The internet does more than deliver email. AI does more than play chess.

A random note I wrote to myself a week ago;

“Tonight’s ongoing thought exercise:
AI prior to 2022, a maturing curiosity
AI in 2022, surprisingly capable
AI in 2023, already being hired and used for real
AI in 2024,…?

Will we even recognize 2025’s AI?”

This week I finished the tenth book in my five-year photo essay of Whidbey Island’s natural shorelines, Twelve Months at Fort Ebey.

That seemingly disconnected accomplishment made me ask myself whether that kind of art would be usurped. Stock photos, particularly for generic topics, can be produced more readily, quickly, and cheaply with image-related AIs. My books are site-specific, and chronicle particular seasons; so they might be defended against such pressures. Fort Ebey is Fort Ebey. Faking it can be done, but fakes can’t honestly chronicle a literal snapshot of reality. Locals can appreciate that. But many of my favorite photos are abstracts. A landscape is a landmark, but a photo of the undulating colors of a sunset or a closeup of a flower aren’t as tied to a place; and could be indistinguishable from something artificially generated.

The larger effect is that AI has allowed recent hardware to out-perform my already limited camera from 15 years ago. Smartphone photos can be so much better because that phone really is much smarter than most folks realize. I pay a professional to polish my photos by removing dust spots, adjusting horizons so they are level, and color balancing and enhancing to compensate for sensor (and photographer) limitations. My old camera is now obsolete, at least compared to my phone’s camera.

Sitting beside me, waiting for me to finish writing this (after having lunch) is the first draft of the sequel to my sci-fi novel, Firewatcher. Ironically, the precipitating event in the book is humanity’s response to an accelerated growth in AI, and I started writing it several yeas ago. I guessed that the Digital Singularity might happen as early as 2040. Surprise! I’m confident that novel writing will remain humanly creative; but, friends are already using AI to generate characters, backstories, and to suggest things like plot lines. Of course, maybe AI won’t make great incursions into novels because novel writing is usually not profitable enough.

Writing short articles, or business correspondence, or ads – Sure, why not try AI? It doesn’t cost much for that first draft, and that first draft may be good enough. That first draft can also be ready in seconds, rather than an hour or longer. 

I’m re-evaluating my career and business options and finding that my expectations are already changing. Fortunately, I enjoy meeting and being with people rather than paperwork and bureaucracy; but I’m not going to take any of it for granted. People like dealing with nice people; but AI robots are being designed for emotional responses, too.

A thought just came to mind. I’ve avoided talking about some topics because I don’t want to be seen as sensationalizing certain topics; but…
(saved to a separate file because the various social media AIs may pass judgment on the implications for a rather…personal industry that has been known for being an early adopter of new technologies.)
…”Honey, there’s a robot in a bikini here to see you. Did you order something extra with your pizza?”

And then there’s Chat-GPT 5, due soon. Ah, but there’s talk of a pause in AI development by CEOs and policy makers. And there’s scoffing because the people actually working in AI know that decisions made by people in offices mean nothing to curious developers. Ban it in one place? Don’t be surprised that some new business or mistake is unleashed in some basement or garage.

One of the fundamentals of the Digital Singularity is a increase in the increase in the speed of change. 

“Tonight’s ongoing thought exercise:
AI prior to 2022, a maturing curiosity
AI in 2022, surprisingly capable
AI in 2023, already being hired and used for real
AI in 2024,…?
Will we even recognize 2025’s AI?”

Will we? Will we even recognize anything else in 2025? The only constant is change.

PS A flash: As I finished typing this, LinkedIn flashed an ad and a news item, “Recruiters are joining the AI race.” They’re already reading an estimated 75% of resumes from job applicants. How else are they going to use these AIs?

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LFLY – One Company One Story

Posted on April 14, 2023 by Tom Trimbath

Welcome to another story and another video in my One Company One Story series.
This time, Leafly (LFLY).

Here comes the amateur legalese.

I began investing in companies and their stocks in the late 70s, but am not a certified investment professional.

My style and history of investing is described in Dream. Invest. Live., a book I wrote by request – which came out as the Great Recession (the Second Great Depression) began. Bad timing, eh?

My personal finance blog (a blog about my finances) is: https://trimbathcreative.net/

I am not investment professional. This is not financial advice. 

Leafly is essentially a simple company. For years they’ve provided information about marijuana, even before it was legal for recreational use in most states. They’ve been handy. The Food Network may have more cooking shows than I can watch, but it seems as if there haven’t been as many general sources of information about different strains, different effects, smoking versus consumables, and eventually information about dispensaries.

The company has been around since 2010. Marijuana wasn’t legalized for recreational use in Washington State until 2012. I didn’t buy any until the first day in 2014, and have a copy of the South Whidbey Record with my picture on the front page. I wasn’t first, but I was the first willing to have my photo taken. The times were different.

The times are still different. I can’t keep track of the strains, am continuing to learn about how to cook with it, and always have more questions. I’m not alone. Evidently, the company gets over 100,000,000 visitors annually, which would suggest robust financials. 

google finance

And yet, the stock is down over 95%, and they’re laying off employees. I don’t know why, and I’ll leave the investment side to someone else. I know I may buy because I like local companies, but my personal finances aren’t healthy, either. (But the news about my job has been fun to share. After I retire some debt I might invest some more money.)

In the meantime, I’ll cheer them on, and keep them on one of my watchlists. 

And later tonight I’ll use some legally purchased product to help me sleep. Partying? Some day. In the meantime, let me settle into some dreams.

The video:

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My Economic Development

Posted on April 8, 2023 by Tom Trimbath

I haven’t felt so relieved in years. The check cleared the bank. A steady income? Nice to see you, again. Life isn’t all about money, but when you’re frugal by necessity rather than choice, it does matter. My first paycheck from my new job as Project Manager at the Economic Development Council for Island County has been deposited. Debt is already decreasing and my mood is already lifting. Those aren’t the only changes.

Gig work has its advantages, but it is frequently unsteady. That unreliability is manageable as long as there are enough gigs that pay well enough on a consistent enough basis that there are no gaps in revenue. A day off means a day not making money. I congratulate the gig workers, the people whose pay is reported on 1099s, who can comfortably manage their bills and afford those gaps. It can be good as long as you can pay your bills. #ALAYCPYB

It has now happened several times that, while I was in the gig world, I’d talk to gig workers who first thought I was joking about reliably getting not one but two days off – every week! Workers who, if sick, get paid to stay home! Workers who, regularly and for no reason that has to be explained, get to take other days off for something called a vacation! Most catch on quickly enough because most gig people I know have had regular paycheck jobs; but they can become so habituated to working every day that reminder takes effort. 

My stress is already reducing. Ah. The type of job and the people involved are important. So is a dependable paycheck. (Thanks, folks; especially, as I learn a new set of priorities and processes.)

A new source of revenue can it is easy to fall into the trap of ‘I can buy this and that, and one of those, and…’. Frugal friends know I am not likely to do that. I did splurge and buy new things like new thumb drives, hardware hooks, and a box of wine. But I intend to maintain my provided title of Mr. Frugal.  

Debt, paying it down. The cost of that new used car that replaced my old truck is hidden in there. So are the home loan funds (HELOC) that paid at least some bills in the last two years. Put it all together and it equals about two years’ gross salary to get back to only having mortgage debt. The mortgage remains at ~4.5% thanks to a renegotiation about a decade ago. (Yes, loyal longtime readers, it has been that long. And this blog is older than that.) At the time I was interviewed for someone’s article about such a high interest rate. They thought I hadn’t thought it through. I think I’ll keep it, for now.

Stress is down and optimism is up. My core thoughts are switching to positive. Welcome back! That’s probably the most important and fundamental benefit, but it is so subjective that only poets could express it properly. I am not a poet. I’ll return to writing about more objective observations.

My doctor might appreciate it from a different perspective. Even my trip across Scotland and the subsequent book, Walking Thinking Drinking Across Scotland, was inspired by my need to relax. Many of my health issues are related to stress, so I am looking forward to the change. 

Pardon my real time break as I put a chuck roast in the oven. One of today’s splurges: chuck roast (from the bargain bin), with veggies, homemade cornbread, and probably a glass of wine from that box I mentioned. 

OK. Oven warming. Back to writing.

So, I’ll see my doctor next week. This is a good time to benchmark my situation. We’ll see whether the data reflects the shift over the next few months.

And then I plan to get the car in for maintenance, my head in for a haircut, I’ll visit my dentist, find an eye doctor after mine retired during the pandemic, … You get the idea? Splurging? Yeah! But not as much on things as on things that matter.

Ironically, making money will also make changes in who gets some of it. A change in income will mean a change in health insurance, which is nicely and partly covered by the new job, but will also mean the change in my subsidies may actually increase my insurance costs by a couple of hundred dollars per month. A change in income will mean a bigger change in my social security, but that calculation is so complex that I’ll let Social Security calculate it.

Those changes will change again because both will change as I hit seniorhood, 65 years old, which happens in less than a year. I expect bureaucratic confusion.

Bureaucratic confusion is difficult when in the Gig Economy, but is much more manageable with a steady income. More stress reduction.

There are other changes that I won’t describe because they are part of my more entrepreneurial projects. Maybe that can be a separate post.

What won’t change are things like my writing. I thought I was done and going to announce the completion of the tenth book in my ten book series of nature photos of Whidbey Island, but I found one key typo of two words – minutes after I uploaded the book to the publisher/printer. Doh! Expect a delay. I am also writing the sequel to my first sci-fi novel, Firewatcher. The first draft is done, with probably nine more to go. I still plan to write the screenplay to a bit of family history/folklore that local professional screenwriters have encouraged me to ‘drop everything and write that!’ And this new job/career can be the capstone in the sequel to my book about personal finance, Dream. Invest. Live., called From Middle Class to Millionaire to Muddling By (working title) – which looks to be better than just muddling by.

As several friends have mentioned, this job seems well-suited for me. I get to help others develop Island County’s economy by developing many things, including their businesses. Sure, I’m trading hours for money, but most of what I’ve worked on for the last decade has been trading hours for – hope, exposure, compliments? I’ve already had fascinating conversations with a broader community, and expect to connect with more. My passion is for people and ideas, and that’s part of what I get to do in this role. How cool is that?

It is spring, and very welcome as blossoms work their way up past the remains of autumn and winter.

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Chat GPT And Change

Posted on April 2, 2023 by Tom Trimbath

OK. Where did I put my notes? I rarely write from them, but an idea came to mind. Maybe if an AI was organizing my life I wouldn’t have to scramble to find those notes. – Found them. A yellow post-it note with some penciled scratches that are probably handwriting. I’ve been thinking about AI (Artificial Intelligence) for decades, and wondering whether it would ever reach the level it appears to be reaching. Things are already getting interesting. 

Is there anything to do about it? Duh. The answer is always ‘yes’. Whether anything will be effective is less certain.

This is an interesting blog post to write because many people do not care about Artificial Intelligence, and can be forgiven for thinking Chat GPT is just another chatbot that resides in some little box on a web page. They may have already tuned out because a conversation about chatbots sounds dull. Besides, isn’t it just cheaper to buy a software package that can answer a narrow set of questions? 

This is also an interesting blog post to write because I know several people who are professional experts with decades of experience in early AI, knowledge systems, and more recent developments. There’s nothing new for them here. They may comment anyway. I hope they have blogs. Read them.

Whew. That takes the pressure off. It might just be me talking to me. 

Last week a friend and I were making fun of my Apple Newton. Think back to circa 1993 to a computer that fit in a (big suit) pocket, was handy for taking notes (terribly), and could connect up to other computers (slowly.) It failed, which is why it is easy to make fun of.

Insert requisite comparison to warehouse-sized mainframes from the 60s and mobile phones from today. I’m sure you’ve seen such elsewhere.

I’ve watched the progress because ‘What’s Next’ is no longer talking about next year or next decade. Change is happening faster than that. 

Chat GPT is the proxy for a wide range of very sophisticated tools that do more than chat. These tools are doing more than chatting.

“…GPT-3.5 was getting ‘B’s at best (generally). GPT-4 is regularly getting scores high enough to get into college.” AI Gets Smarter Faster, PNTP

That change happened in only a few months. There’s reason to believe that the change is about to accelerate. Chat GPT-5 is rumored to be availability by the end of 2023.

That rate of change is the issue. 

There’s a video I referenced before called “Humans Need Not Apply” from 8 years ago. The message I got from it was that the change in technology we are about to experience is similar to the change society experienced with the Industrial Revolution, but in less time. Lots of jobs will be lost. Lots of jobs may be generated, but different people may be involved. Pittsburgh went from a steel town to one for high-tech, but the steel workers I knew weren’t the ones getting the new jobs. Their stories are tough enough that I am going to not write about there here.

Another futurist that affects my thinking about this is Ray Kurweil. Check out his books and institution. A central aspect of the message I got from reading some of his conclusions is that, given his assumptions, the Digital Singularity is likely. A singularity can be a change that is so abrupt that the technology or society that came before can become useless afterwards. Many think he assumes too much.

For airplanes, the speed of sound is a singularity. The closer the airplane gets to the speed of sound the more drag there is. For a while, the speed of sound was considered a wall that couldn’t be breached. It was, of course, but to understand it required a new set of equations. It also required new designs for airplanes if they were going to survive flying faster. It also required courageous pilots.

wikipedia

Our society and our technology is flying faster.

Historically, society and technology rarely changed. We started with tribes, then tribes with fires. We grew to villages and farming. Then countries and armies. Now, we’re global – and I think we’re confused.

Change happened with regimes. When families could migrate, change happened with generations. Lifetime careers have changed to gigs, and uncertainty. How much faster can we change? #NotRhetorical

Computation was slow until the discovery (or invention) of math and writing. Scribes mattered. When machines could calculate computation accelerated. And they led to computers, which were enabled by chips, which have been abled by networking.

Computer software updates went from decades as they invented the technology, to years as humans adapted to new computer hardware, which sped up as tubes were replaced by chips. But, software was still slowed by humans. We can only type so fast.

Ah, but now, software can write software. Change has gone from something controlled by humans limited by biology to computers limited by technology. Human change is measured by physical things like calendars and clocks. Technological change can be measured in technical terms, including chip speeds. Instead of change happening in months, it might happen in minutes.

A critical achievement was for software to begin writing software. I recall attending a Microsoft stockholders meeting about 25 years ago. Bill Gates mentioned that maybe they should look at the code because they weren’t writing code line by line, but in blocks they connected up.

It has been a long time since humans fully understand the software we use. 

Few, if any, understand specifically how Chat GPT, et al operate.

“Now, there is data supporting the idea that ChatGPT is the fastest adoption of any technology.

Instagram took 2.5 years to reach 100,000,000 users.
Tik Tok took nine months.
ChatGPT took two months.” – AI Adoption Accelerates, PNTP

Two years to nine months to two months to… It seems that Chat GPT-5’s unveiling by the end of the year could be the end of next week. Probably not, but how many would be surprised?

And here is where some of the public confusion come from. Chat GPT is not an Artificial Intelligence. It is incredibly sophisticated, but it is still a language tool. Others are only working with images. They aren’t AGI, where the G stands for General, as in being able to do it all.

Even then, it may not be conscious. But it might not matter. If it quacks like a duck,… If it can manage a transaction or a company better than humans, then it might be more than good enough. 

Add Artificial Emotions and it may be easier to have an intelligent and engaging conversation with an AIM than with a human.

This is over a thousand words to get to what I am really thinking about.

If something like a Digital Singularity happened within the next twelve months, how would our world change? A year from now, how many early 2023 plans will seem silly in retrospect? Or, is this another Y2K moment when we adapt thanks for many un-named people working hard without much reward?

Many news items have been making analogies to The Matrix if something like a Digital Singularity happens. I enjoy the movie, but my preferred reference is the Hyperion series (remember books?). He took a few steps beyond the Singularity.

In the Matrix, the ‘robots’ reached a certain level then stayed there. In Dan Simmons’ books the technology continued to evolve. Early ones remained somewhat in contact with humans, but later ones didn’t even stay in contact with the early AIs. Society fragmented (in my terms): luddites (stay low-tech), normals (folks who just try to keep up), augmented humans (people who welcome tech into their bodies), and ultras (who succeed at becoming more machine than human.) And, AIs that: were the kind we are familiar with, semi-autonomous, fully-autonomous, ‘conscious’, and then beyond. 

It isn’t us versus them or vice versa. It’s a mess with all the players at the same time.

I put quotes around conscious because we don’t know what it is, and the AIs might not either.

So, how’s that 30-year mortgage looking? Or my 40-year mortgage? What should I plan for?

Maybe it is not this year, or ever. But change isn’t going to stop, and it isn’t going to wait. 

So, what do I do about that? You see, this blog is about my personal finances. Thank the SEC for various rules and regulations (as I understand them.) I am not a certified professional financial planner or advisor or whatever. I can, however, comment on me. That’s one reason this blog is self-centered. It is by design.

For the people in my science fiction novel, Firewatcher, they were further along the curve, and decided to fly away from Earth. Not an option, for me. (BTW The first draft of the sequel is complete.)

For those of us staying on the planet, the simplest thing to do may be to be ready for change. Knowing personal values, skills, and resources makes that easier to do because it is part of living a conscious life. Living by habit may be easier to disrupt. “I’ve always done it that way” doesn’t work well when ‘that way’ is no longer an available way. 

Ironically, I might already be doing some of the right things, or at least working on them. Frugality, minimalism, community, self-reliance are things that are valuable in most of those scenarios. As one meme put it, someone with a woodstove and a flock of chickens might be the most attractive person around. Hmm. I don’t have either.

Ideally, I’d have a good small house on a nice plot of land with a nice garden. Simple. 

Realistically, I plan to stay connected to people, help my community, live frugally, and not worry about it too much. Remember Y2K. Be calm and carry on because, while I think it is helpful to be aware and prepare, predicting the future has rarely been a reliable gamble. 

Maybe I should put more effort into that greenhouse.

PS It is a long post, but you missed watching me having to undo several things that the software wanted to help me with. Kind of like an eager child. Is that where we are, for now?

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Tom Got A Job

Posted on March 28, 2023 by Tom Trimbath

A rare event: real news about my personal finances. I got a job. A real, W-2, full time(-ish), benefits package, signed contract, legit job. Whew. W-H-E-W! Expect to see changes in what, when, how, and why I post. As I type I can’t announce it yet, but I’m so pleased to share the news that I’ll write as much as I can, then insert the details in a paragraph after the news embargo is lifted.

(news embargo lifted)

And after a delay, here is some of what I know about the organization and the job, so far. (I expect a steep learning curve.) “The Economic Development Council for Island County (EDC) is pleased to extend an offer to you for the position of Project Manager.“

And for those unfamiliar with the area and the organization;

“The EDC works to create a thriving economic environment where business can grow and create jobs while preserving our unique quality of life.

An independent nonprofit, the EDC is the County’s designated partner with the Washington State Department of Commerce. We are the voice of economic development for the diverse communities of Whidbey and Camano Island, and we collaborate with elected officials, government, business and other community organizations on advocacy and programs.“

Me? Economics? Cool!

Here’s why this is such a big deal for me.

The rest of this blog post is my personal backstory, and may also be part of a book with the working title of, From Middle Class To Millionaire To Muddling By, the sequel to Dream. Invest. Live. I’ve experienced and learned a lot since then.

I retired in 1998 at 38. I haven’t been bored since. Even at the beginning of retirement I found things to do. Believe it or not, I actually followed someone else’s advice. Don’t do nothing, or at least, not yet. But, also, don’t do the same thing; because, at that age, it was possible to find out more about who I am/was beyond the job title that was tied to my degree. That advice had merit, but it also was too simplistic. Anyway,…

My black belt was a few years old, so I felt confident starting a business teaching traditional, old-school karate. Alas, as my first business, I made mistakes in marketing and such. Then, there was an upheaval in that style’s upper management that made it difficult to promote any of my students. Oh well, I had sufficient funds for comfortable survival. (#MassiveUnderstatement)

A couple of years later I wanted to give my wife a skinnier husband for Christmas and I wanted it to be me. The story is more involved than that (duh) but it resulted in me bicycling from coast to coast across the US. I didn’t lose any weight, body fat, or waist size, but I did send out so many emails that writer friends encouraged me to write a book. (Just Keep Pedaling) I guessed I’d become a writer.

Hmm. I bet I can be a better writer than that. Lots of logic and some serendipity later I decided to write a three book series of nature essays about three lakes along a local mountain highway. (Twelve Months at Barclay Lake, Twelve Months at Lake Valhalla, Twelve Months at Merritt Lake) An Editors Award for the first one encouraged me to continue.

As I finished the fourth book I also began a new chapter in my life. I asked for a divorce. I also moved to Whidbey Island, leaving the mainland to the mainland’s way of life. Let’s see what an islander’s life can be like. With my net worth divided by two, but still with more than enough, I decided to help others with their businesses and their writing. A new gig! 

You may have noticed that since 1998 none of these businesses had been W-2 jobs. They’d been 1099 gigs. 

A year or so later, I decide to buy a house on Whidbey because I was that comfortable, but I got a mortgage because I wanted to leave most of my funds in my stock portfolio.

Friends on the island convinced me that I could describe personal finance well enough that I should write a book about it. Nice. Thanks for the compliments. Then a New York Times best seller made that emphatic. I stopped dithering, and Dream. Invest. Live. was born (and so was this blog).

Coincident with the publication of the book, the Great Recession (the Second Great Depression) began. Still, my desire for work was optional because my portfolio rebounded as many justifiably worried because theirs fell. 

So much for that. Two felonious corporate assaults later my portfolio crashed 80% in four months. (The felons eventually were found guilty years later, but my money was gone. Investing does involve risk.) 

I didn’t feel good; so I checked with doctors about my worsening condition, Their tests, not their treatments even, would cost $8,000. I wasn’t convinced that insurance would pay for the tests. The issue was stress. I don’t need to spend $8,000 to tell me that. Instead, it was cheaper to take a vacation that might de-stress myself, and my self. Surprise, I had a life-changing revelation, and felt compelled to write about the trip. Walking Thinking Drinking Across Scotland.

Maybe I should get a real job. Unemployment hits new highs. Ah, but I could sell my house. Except that I couldn’t because many others couldn’t either. No income. No way to tap into my assets. And my IRA dwindled as I hit the emergency button and made early withdraws from my IRA. I was penalized with penalties. Soon, my net worth was down 98%.

Eep. Ah, about that job. 

The next six years were a chaos of part-time jobs that added up to seven days a week of typically 10-14 hour days, but with only four days off per year. Per year. And the income didn’t cover all of my bills. I almost lost my house, but the government saved me and it. Thanks.

A dear friend shepherded me through becoming a real estate broker, which looked promising. An early accelerated pension helped. Early Social Security made it all almost viable.

Still missed that steady paycheck.

Then a pandemic. Oy. 

Over a decade of struggling and rarely getting ahead, and I had more than enough of at least one thing; stress. My health had been deteriorating, but got worse and become non-negotiable. Not enough money. Not enough security. Not enough time to recuperate.

Years of the stress of real estate was too great and the income insufficient; so, I quit four months ago. That didn’t improve the money or security, but I had to, as a necessity, buy that time on debt to hopefully begin to recuperate. And recuperation truly begins.

But, a paycheck? Nope.

Until March 2023, when I actually got a job. I got a job in something I care about for paycheck and benefits that are ridiculously welcome. More than twenty years since a regular paycheck. What a transition at 64 years old.

It was my first job interview in years, despite many applications. Somehow, I survived it – and got the job.

Now, to adjust to the needs of the job, the people, the organizations, and understanding how it all fits. The good news is that it is about something I’ve tried to do for years informally with various entrepreneurs.

For regular readers, expect some changes. My blogs will have to elbow their way into the remaining bits of my schedule – which has always been full. Some blogs may shift to new owners. Some projects will be postponed. A few will advance, though more slowly. There’s the sequel to my science fiction novel, a screenplay based on family folklore, my photography, and tending my mental and physical health throughout. Oh yeah, and the sequel to Dream. Invest. Live. This is why my recent blogs posts were interrupted a bit. (possible #MassiveUnderstatement)

Stay tuned. Thanks to all who follow along; and congratulations to anyone who read this entire synopsis of my life since 1998. 

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What Happened To WNDW

Posted on March 22, 2023 by Tom Trimbath

FAQ: How do you decided what to write about? (See the graph below.)

Google Finance

That was not a good morning, but it woke me up! How could I not write about that?

Down more than 98% in minutes. How the…? What the…? So goes life investing in tiny companies, regardless of how big their ideas are.

I have a small holding (and tiny by the end of the day); so, I checked the news, social media, stock discussion groups, and even my emails. Hey, I know that companies rarely ever tell their owners what is happening with the company, and even more rarely with the stock; but maybe this time… No.

You may notice that a lot of this story involves ‘…’ because sometimes there are no words.

Scenarios filtered through my thoughts. I’ve investing since circa 1978. I’ve seen stuff.

  • Was the company revealed to be a scam?
  • Did they found a critical and fatal flaw in the product?
  • Did someone embezzle everything?
  • Did a bank-crash crash the company?
  • Was it a glitch in the trading system?
  • Was it stock manipulation?
  • Was it a flash-crash on purpose?
  • Was it…

No news. At $0.02 per share there wasn’t much more to lose, so, keep it, just in case of …(?).

Life happens. I’ve been busy enough. I spent yesterday waiting on two phone calls, neither of which had anything to do with stocks. No calls. Today, the weather is gorgeous. Blue skies and the mountains still have white snow. I’ll go skiing, instead. (Cross-country skiing has been the best therapy for my balky balky knee.)

Get home after market close. See this chart.

Google Finance

Up over 730%! That’s a new record, for me!

Of course, down 98% then up 737% kind of just confuses things. Looked at in the longer term…

Google Finance

WNDW closed at $0.67, down from five days ago at over $1.20. Down 47% in a week isn’t good, but after witnessing 98%, let’s just say that is negotiable.

Go back a year.

Google Finance

Look at the last year. The stock is down 75%. But the stock hasn’t had a slow, smooth decline. Small stocks get bouncy. The average volume is only 39K shares. Smooth out the price to $1.00 and the daily volume is less than the price of a new car. If the company succeeds that volume (and market cap) will probably be higher.

Finally, news. SolarWindow Update on Market Transaction Restrictions in the Company’s Stock Pending Filing of Forms 10-K and 10-Q

“…the management of the Korean Subsidiary, have failed to deliver the requested documentation and information, including, but not limited to such basic information as the Korean Subsidiary’s monthly banking statements.“

This isn’t new, though it is news to me.

“…these repeated requests beginning in May 2022…“

The company has been trying to contact the company (one side not helping the other) for months.

Troubling? Yes, but it is not about the technology or the product. One small group of individuals are avoiding an audit of the “Korean Subsidiary” for unspecified reasons, from what I can tell.

Maybe this collapses the company. Maybe not. They have a plan in place with government representatives to switch management back to the responsible and responsive people, from what I can tell.

If someone wants a measure of my risk tolerance, or naivete, here it is. Fundamentally, they still have an idea that I think has great potential. If they eventually succeed, great. If they get bought out and my shares transfer to the other company, fine. But they can also go under.

Look back at the list of possible causes. Someone deciding to not file the right paperwork at the right time was not on the list. Maybe this is knowable for an investor who is dedicated to one stock, and who can notice every filing in every country, and also notice what wasn’t filed. For an independent investor like me, I know I can’t know everything. This is why WNDW is one of my two smallest holdings.

So, I hold. The rest of life is also important, too. I’m still waiting on those two phone calls. I got some skiing in. And it is time to make dinner before writing some more of my next sci-fi novel. There are things to do.

But for the price of the commute to and from skiing, I could’ve picked up sooo many shares.

Woulda. Coulda. Shoulda. Nah. I’m glad I went skiing.

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LUNR – One Company One Story

Posted on March 15, 2023 by Tom Trimbath

Intuitive Machines (LUNR) – One Company One Story

Welcome to another story and another video in my One Company One Story series.
This time, Intuitive Machines (aka LUNR).

Here comes the amateur legalese.

I began investing in companies and their stocks in the late 70s, but am not a certified investment professional.

My style and history of investing is described in Dream. Invest. Live., a book I wrote by request – which came out as the Great Recession (the Second Great Depression) began. Bad timing, eh?

I am not investment professional. This is not financial advice. 

This time it is about Intuitive Machines which sounds more an AI or robotics company, but may be hinted at better by its trading symbol, LUNR (LUNaR, get it?) They’re doing moon stuff, and more. They are offering many of the services necessary for lunar exploration: transportation (after launch), Earth-based space communications, Moon-centered communications, a hopping rover, and more.

Without getting all geeky (and producing animations I’d botch), the process is something like: get launched (Space-X), then LUNR’s vehicle gets the lunar vehicle into lunar orbit, their lander lands and can contain a rover that hops around as a way to deliver sensors and such to the landing site. (I still like the idea of an orbital transfer vehicle, especially one that could be refueled and reused. Cool.) 

Fifty years ago, this idea would seem like a natural, building the infrastructure to get to and work on the Moon, and in space. (Personal note: About forty-five years ago, I started my career with a degree in Aerospace and Ocean Engineering. Space was going to be the future! Public opinion, however, was swayed by near-term appeals. Budgets shrunk. Long-term ideas were shelved. A few years in Boeing Commercial Space led nowhere. So much for that career.) Twenty years ago-ish, Space X announced audacious plans. They weren’t the only ones, but commercial space became a possibility. Now, at least according to NASA, 

“The Intuitive Machines 1 (IM-1, TO2-IM) mission objective is to place a lander, called Nova-C, on the crater rim of Malapert A near the south pole of the Moon. The commercially built lander will carry five NASA payloads and commercial cargo. Launch is currently scheduled for June 2023.” – NASA

That’s only months away (as I type.) Rather than deadlines measured in years (or decades), they are a public company with NASA as a partner/customer.

This is a good example of the early commercialization of space. It is starting with NASA contracts; which is more civil than commercial. That’s frequently the way such things begin. It can be possible to be profitable and sustainable to work on civil contracts; but I will be hoping for true commercialization which will be business-to-business. 

They are attempting something complex and impressive. But then, Space-X’s idea of recovering and reusing rocket stages seemed audacious. Now, it is taken for granted. Practice brings public complacency, which is a sign of public acceptance. I don’t know if they’ll succeed, but this is the nature of early (ignoring fifty years of waiting) technology. In the realm of investing, it is also an example of risk and reward.

They are also attempting the parts that are simplified (relatively) but not having to deal with Earth’s gravity or an atmosphere. Space is still difficult, but simple design choices can simplify their tasks.

The stock’s ride has been wild. With barely any history of trading it has already had a >250% day. Since then, the stock has come back down. Rocket analogies are allowed.

Google Finance

I cheer on those who are making the company happen. I’ll enjoy staying tuned to this story.

The video:

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A Bit Of My Investing Process

Posted on March 9, 2023 by Tom Trimbath

Rats. Where’d that post go? I guess I’ll just have to paraphrase from memory. Expect inaccuracies. A few months ago someone online asked me if I have any ideas about which stocks will have explosive growth soon. They probably didn’t expect an answer, but we had a nice typed chat. Today, Lineage Cell Therapeutics announced earnings. No explosion, yet. It is in my portfolio. Outside my portfolio I do have a list. One of those stocks was up over 80% for a while, today. Is that explosive enough?

I won’t go into the details of my process. That’s why I wrote a book, Dream. Invest. Live. One friend half-jokingly summarized it as a ‘get rich slowly’ approach. My short version is that I look for small, simple, undervalued companies; buy their stock when they are overlooked and cheap; hang on as long as I think reasonable; and sell when the value climbs enough or dives down too far. 

For investing types, I usually screen for market cap < $2B, and frequently hold for years, sometimes decades (GERN, MVIS). I am attracted to innovative companies in markets with an unmet need, that have solutions that are positive financially and socially.

This blog contains the details of how my diversified portfolio of about a dozen stocks has reduced to five; but the short version is what I described in my Semi-Annual Portfolio exercise and review. Even shorter: GERN, LCTX, MVIS, SOLO, WNDW. 

No explosion today, and I rarely expect an explosion. I actually prefer stocks that start undervalued, may languish for a long time while the company progresses, then take months or a few years to steadily find a favorable stock valuation. Recently, it looked like MVIS had met those criteria as the stock went from $0.15 to almost $30.00 within a few months. I didn’t sell because I estimated it could quickly go much higher – based on assumptions that proved invalid. So it goes.

Google Finance

Note, my decision was based on the possible value of the company, not based on some percentage of the stock price. I haven’t repeated that analysis; but that story will probably be updated some time this year.

Lineage Cell Therapeutics is a biotech that I recently summarized as;
“…some of their proposed treatments is that they’re using stem cells (pluripotent cells?) to regrow tissues in the eye to treat Dry Eye Macular Degeneration (another long word) and regrow nerves in accident victims.” 

Successfully treating either of those conditions is something I consider very positive, and hence, potentially profitable.

Today’s earnings news was fine and within expectations. It was not explosive (a word I’m stuck on today since that person replying to my post used it.) The languishing continues, at least within the investment community. Within the company and the technical realm, it looks good to me. Keep up the good work, and good luck making a treatment that is effective, efficient, safe, and that hard-to-hit balance – affordable and sufficiently profitable.

Maybe next year.

I do, however, maintain a list of candidate companies, and a shorter list of stocks. About half the companies I follow are private, so, no stock. I can still cheer them on.

Let’s skip the suspence. This graphic holds the list.

Google Finance

Look about two-thirds of the way down and notice LUNR with a momentary one-day increase of over 80%. Looks like it was a nice one to have on my other list. Oh, well. That’s the benefit of a diversified portfolio, which I miss.

Ironically, using the term explosive is apt but maybe not desirable. It has a lunar program. Yes, out of this world; so, rockets are involved, but hopefully explosions aren’t.

There is no grand secret to creating such a list. I read. I listen. I watch. Articles, the radio (old school), and videos about topics that interest me also provide a list of innovators and innovations from entrepreneurs. If Boeing, or Pfizer, or AT&T have a solution, great, but they’re not going on the list. Adding an extra $1B to Boeing’s profits would be welcome and could nudge the stock, but add $0.1B to MicroVision and be entertained with the resulting enthusiasm – and a rapid and energetic expansion of their valuation, almost explosive, possibly.

There is no grand conclusion to this post. Sorry I wrote this with that news delayed so far. But, for me, my personal finances involve lots of possibilities and patience. LCTX announced earnings (or not), today. Progress is made. I already have shares. I’d like to have more, but I have about as much as I can afford. I also only spend as much time as I can afford. I don’t try to time those explosive moments. Getting in early means they can catch up to me, rather than me trying to catch them.

I follow my curiosity, take notes, as resources and conditions I may buy or sell but mostly hold, and wait, and wait. Most sentences after a line like that are waffle-worded: maybe, could, possibly, hopefully. Within my personal finance history of over 40 years, I’ve had enough mornings when I’ve woken up to a surprise announcement that the company reached a new level and their stock was rising 40% (several), 140% (a few), or 240% (one). These things haven’t happened sustainably recently; but I know they have happened, no maybes about it. I suspect (waffle word) they will again.

You are a different person, so your personal finances are different. I wish you well. I also hope that this very long answer to a long-ago question helps someone. Now, who were they…?

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Wait For The Answer

Posted on March 2, 2023 by Tom Trimbath

“Why would you do such a thing?” That is a question that is too frequently followed by quick advice. The advice may come from good intentions, and the answer makes sense to the person who asked the question. But does it make sense to the person who was asked? Wait for the answer, first. There might be a lesson in there, somewhere.

I live in a 1964 house. It is sweet. It is only 868 square feet. It is the only place I’ve really called home since growing up. It has a view of the Olympic Mountains. On misty days the views may stop at the Kitsap Peninsula, or Puget Sound. On rainy days the views may barely reach across Cultus Bay. On foggy enough days the views may only reach to the end of my driveway. Even the minimalist days have views better than any other house I’ve owned.

But.

It is a 1964 house. It could suck up tens of thousands of dollars in style upgrades. Some of the appliances are that old. Same with the windows. There’s more. There are also mysteries. Was it originally heated by a woodstove and nothing else? Maybe that’s why the floor changes between the kitchen and living room. Was the carport and utility room added on? They’re three steps down and can’t be accessed without going outside. Why is there a pipe for a downspout in the ground along the middle of the back wall? Was it really that short of a house originally, or did they abandon some grander plan?

I can ask, but I can’t expect answers. It is easier to shrug and assume they had an idea that was good, or maybe even necessary, at the time.

I run across the same question with my books and photos. Why no page numbers in some of them? Why was that photo cropped the way it was? Of course, it is easy to insert page numbers – for some. It is obvious that cropping this part out or in would be easy to do. How could I not do that?

I no longer jump to an answer, when asked, usually. Pause. They may only be catching their breath before delivering advice. After they deliver it I frequently find that the question had implicit assumptions baked in from the questioner’s viewpoint. Frequently their advice is correct – for that set of assumptions. I might have a different set. Each of us can have our own assumptions.

MicroVision (see? I managed to allude to MVIS) announced earnings. I was glad and honored to be asked by a few folks for my opinion about the company. Another quarter without substantial earnings (or not at all.) How could they do such a thing over decades since they incorporated? Surely, something must be imminent, or it is a scam, or they’ve just had bad luck, or, or, or… I don’t know. I do know that corporate management can be limited by NDAs, contracts, competitive sensitivities, or security clearances. Or, management may not want to reveal some fundamental flow which has undermined every attempt at successful and profitable implementation.

Infrequently I hear the practical possibility that the company has been successful when viewed from the perspective of employees and managers who have received salaries, managed to buy houses, send kids to college, and basically lived lives for years. There is a value that may never financially benefit the shareholders (aka owners), but it is a value on a humanitarian level. Whether that was done consciously, ethically, or correctly is something others can debate.

How could they have abandoned interactive eyewear years ago? How could they not sell portable projectors profitably? How could they not make money with Microsoft as a partner and customer? How can they be taking so long with LiDAR sensors for vehicles and homes? How? How? How?

I don’t know. The sad point is that getting useful, reliable answers out of any corporation is difficult. Sometimes the only way is to wait for success, at which point more truth may come out. 

Getting answers out of individuals is easier, but it can take a while to wait for the answer.

I wonder why the painter painted it that way? I bet… – Maybe they ran out of blue.
I wonder why the sculptor didn’t include this? I bet… – Maybe because a sculpture has to balance.
I wonder why, I wonder why, I wonder why.

I help produce a podcast about writing on Whidbey Island. It has the oh-so-fancy name of WritingOnWhidbeyIsland.com. Innovative, eh? It is a good forum for me to practice waiting and listening. The answers are frequently things like kids, pets, jobs, relationships, not the proper use of semi-colons or page margins. Rather than some Style Guide, time and money are equally likely to drive an artist to a solution.

Page numbers? Page numbers are preferred, but errors in page numbers can be even worse, and errors happen. (Don’t ask. It was a mess. Fixing it cost too much in time and stress.)

Cropped photos? I’ll frame a photo to purposely hide a defect in my camera’s lens. I may not get rid of it, but I can try to hide it.

Time? For a variety of reasons, every book I’ve written has had time pressures, a reason to sacrifice style guidelines for deadlines.

Money? Lots of things can be improved with professional help, but professionals rightly expect to get paid. Nothing to pay with? Hope to use the professionals next time.

How could people I know think a certain way? I don’t know. But I hope I am not going to ask unless I have the time and patience to listen to the answer.

I’m still curious about why the fence was built without nailing in the rest of the nails.

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RRGB – One Company One Story

Posted on February 21, 2023 by Tom Trimbath

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB) – One Company One Story

Welcome to another story and another video in my One Company One Story series.
This time, Red Robin Gourmet Burgers.

Here comes the amateur legalese.

I began investing in companies and their stocks in the late 70s, but am not a certified investment professional.

My style and history of investing is described in Dream. Invest. Live., a book I wrote by request – which came out as the Great Recession (the Second Great Depression) began. Bad timing, eh? https://www.amazon.com/-/e/B0035XVXAA

My personal finance blog (a blog about my finances) is: https://trimbathcreative.net/

I am not investment professional. This is not financial advice. 

This time it is about Red Robin, or more fully, Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (aka RRGB). 

Imagine a small place in Seattle a few decades ago serving something that everyone considered to be something simple and every day. They get known. They grow. They become an international phenomena. It worked for coffee and Starbucks. Why wouldn’t it work for burgers and Red Robin? It did and it didn’t, at least when comparing the crimson bird to the green lady.

Red Robin has not been as successful as Starbucks, but the company does have over 500 restaurants. 

Disclosure: I bought and sold my stock in RRGB about a decade ago. See that history at the link: https://trimbathcreative.net/?s=RRGB).

The idea is basic and simple: provide a place that is nicer than MacDonald’s, can serve drinks, but also is a good place for kids. If you dined there you may have heard their own Happy Birthday song. Birthday cakes and beer. Something for everyone.

I was impressed with the restaurants. They weren’t my style, but they were a better fit than most. Their mix of comfort food and clean casual dining was good for families, but also for informal business lunches. I like casual. I prefer to eat in quiet places, so I am more likely to go for a picnic than to be surrounded by sports broadcasts or amped music; but I invest in stocks based on what other people want. Evidently, people wanted burgers. OK. I’ll buy. 

The problem with simple business models is that they are easier to duplicate. I think Starbucks got such a head start because the investment community enjoyed laughing at it; then, no one could catch up. Burger joints are more expensive to start and operate, and easier to replicate.

I still like them, but haven’t eaten at one for years – and even then, someone paid for my meal. I moved to an island, so going to Red Robin involves a boat ride. Inconvenient, but living here is quiet.

Google Finance
Google Finance

A pandemic didn’t help, but even before then annual revenues were trailing down, not up. The uneven growth might explain the uneven stock price. Now, as people expect home delivery and some are protecting themselves by staying out of unmasked areas like restaurants, Red Robin continues to have challenges. Labor and food shortages as costs climb can’t help.

I’ll continue to cheer them on, but not as an investor and from a distance – unless I visit a mall, which I haven’t done this decade.

The video:

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