Well, that happened. And it is going to keep happening, change, that is. The US elections were this week, which I mention for any reader finding this post months from now. That happens, too. Aside from the political ramifications, the markets have responded to. They were up and down and are wiggling around. I guess I’m glad that none of it is making me do anything different. Sorry, folks. No drama here, and that’s a good thing.
Regular readers know that in fewer than two months I will post my semi-annual portfolio review. You want details? Either wait two months or scroll back four months. Today’s view is a data point. This week’s performance is a measure of the emotions in the market. Fundamentals seem to be ignored as fear and greed are moving massive chunks of money around. My portfolio is NOT a massive chunk of money to the community. It may be most of what I have, but what I have doesn’t move markets.
My portfolio is like a piece of driftwood being caught in a storm. Barely noticeable to a ship. An annoyance to a big boat. Something to be aware of in a dinghy. Something to latch onto if you’re floundering. OK. To me, it is as big as a big dinghy.
I admit to being dismayed with my portfolio’s reaction the day after the election. It dropped. Were people simply escaping the market? As I type, just days later, almost all of my stocks are up, and two of them (LUNR, QBTS) are up ~20% (~$10). Yippee. (Note the lack of an exclamation point.)
Both stocks are down from their year’s peaks of over $40 (LUNR) and over $30 (QBTS). Yippee?
Both stocks are above where I bought them, ~$5 LUNR, ~$1 QBTS. OK, yippee given the longer perspective.
All of those swings are more related to an investment community trying to value lunar commerce and quantum computing. Elections matter, but a business’ progress matters too. Both companies are in better shape now than then. Hopefully their progress brings back those loftier levels (and beyond). Hey, I want a new car. Until then, maybe a vacation or two. (Measured in hours or days, not weeks or anything longer – for no.)
I watch the news, but rarely react to it. I vote, but am not busy in politics. I am more interested in my life. Bills have to be paid. Healthcare issues are to be dealt with. There’s a house to take care of. And there is nature and dancing and friends and having room left over to fit in aspects that can be better than the rest. Hey, it happens; so I am told.
The market is coupled to the economy and the political system. That coupling is so complex that I notice it but don’t try to fully understand it. I’m more likely to make comparisons to historic currency crashes from a hundred years ago than to whether an interest rate goes up a point. History echoes. I listen for the echoes.
Some echoes I am listening to are the Magna Carta, the French Revolution, and the Russian Revolution. You want to witness a disruption in the political system? Look at what happened when monarchies were overthrown, there was an “Age of Reason”, or communism tried reinventing government. A blue wave? Sure. That’s nice. Someone invents a style of government that is fairer, more sustainable, and actually free-er? That’s something to look forward to.
In the meantime, I continue to watch. Most of my actions are deciding not to act. I coulda sold LUNR at its recent peak, but I already got my original stake and some significant profits out of it. What remains is profit. I don’t want to lose it, but it does make my patience easier to exercise. Except for GERN (which I’ve held since circa 2000) all of the companies I am invested in are making progress. (Yes, even MVIS, though I don’t fully believe it, yet.)
The market is about to close. Those gains persist. I guess I will, too. And I’ll feel a bit more relaxed about a couple of days on the beach, Kalaloch in Olympic National Park. The forecast is for 52F, a high wind watch, a king tide sorta, and a Kelvin Wave. Hey, I’m in Western Washington and it’s November, what did you expect a beach to be like, Florida?