Spare Blanket

Posted on November 23, 2011 by Tom Trimbath

I’d planned to write about DNDN’s ups and downs but a human encounter last night derailed my thoughts. A man needed a blanket.

My traffic spikes when I write about stocks (particularly DNDN or MVIS), or when I write about positive global social trends (Golden Revolution) or simply sweet days (Ignore The News). This blog is inspired by my book, Dream. Invest. Live., which gives me a lot of writing latitude. The two most popular themes are investing and living. That covers a lot of territory and also explains why I’ve blogged a couple of thousand words a week for the last few years. (Go back to the original blog for the whole story.) But sometimes I write about what affects me. I suspect last night’s event affected more than a few of us.

Tuesday evenings are dance practice. We have no formal organization. A loose collection of volunteers choose music, set up a sound system, prep and clean the hall, and collect money as a fundraiser for a 1927 dance hall. (What were they thinking two years before the crash of 1929?) Last night was a relatively busy night, just enough folks to pay for the heat and maybe a bit for the hall and enough to be able to practice with lots of different partners. Considering the winter storm deluging the world outside, I was impressed with the turnout. Luckily the power stayed on.

About thirty minutes after we started, a man wearing too many layers walked in. He didn’t look like he was there to dance. He looked homeless. He politely talked discreetly to a few folks and then left. I’d seen him earlier when I was at the store across the parking lot. He’d been nursing a cup of hot coffee in a commons area that was warm and dry, but that closed when the last business locked its doors for the night. I saw him a couple of times there, once in the grocery and once in a print shop. Every time he was courteously crossing a comfort zone.

He didn’t talk to me. Maybe I was good at avoiding him. I suspected him of something, but didn’t know what. Something wasn’t right. For a homeless man he was wearing relatively good warm clothes. His face wasn’t weathered. His posture was erect. It was as if he was recently homeless, or more accurately, housed until recently. I guessed that he was in his sixties. When he was in the dance hall I watched as he walked past everyone’s jackets, coats and purses. When he was in the grocery and the print shop I assumed that the proprietors he was talking to were attentive to anything odd.

After he left the dance hall people were quietly asking each other about local shelters and spare blankets. Whidbey has many wonders but there is no homeless shelter on the south end that I know of. The thrift shops probably had spare blankets but they were closed. I thought about what I had in my car, but there wasn’t anything that would help in the rain.

I felt guilty about mistrusting him, or at least about not feeling more compassionately towards him. In wealthier days I had more resources for such times. I’d rarely given directly because once when I did it turned into a semi-stalker scenario. But last night felt more poignant. My money is tight. Unless my finances improve dramatically soon, I’ll be tapping a shrunken IRA soon. Another of the dancers was without power because of the storm. Another had no heat because a tree threatened the house and a propane tank that had to be moved. That emergency expense can be tough on someone recently unemployed. Within that room were people who had been or were close to his situation.

He wasn’t a homeless. Sometimes homeless is used as a label without reference to being a homeless person, a person without a home. He was a gentleman without a home, or a blanket, on a 40 degree night with 30 knot winds and over an inch of rain coming down. Now I realize that I should have a space blanket in the car as part of my emergency kit, and if I did, I could’ve given it to him – after I got past my suspicion and caution.

He is also a reminder of our current social upheaval. Debates rage between pundits and politicians about their ideologies. Pragmatism never seems to enter the debate. Yet, for every social ill, someone needs a pragmatic solution now. Food, shelter, and health care are immediate needs that don’t wait for debates.

He is also a reminder of the value of appreciating each moment and individual dignity. He maintained dignity throughout. I am typing this in a home without heat or power because the storm interrupted services yet again; but I appreciate the sound roof, walls, and windows, a full pantry, a laptop with hours of battery charge remaining, and a thermos of hot tea. I also appreciate the ability to help a friend who just called about a fence that needs to be rebuilt quickly. A tree fell across it, opening an escape route for much of a menagerie. The fence needs to be repaired before the animals find the gap.

I wish I’d treated him better. I console myself thinking that maybe he is actually fine and that he was only testing the neighbors to see how compassionate we are. Maybe his better attire was a sign of poor costuming and his poise was proof of a better life. I suspect not.

Tomorrow is Thanksgiving, and thanks to him I will appreciate it more. Today, I think I’ll rummage around, find a spare blanket, and put it the car just in case. And I hope he is warm and well and heading to better days.

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Fresh Idea Dancers Metronome

Posted on November 22, 2011 by Tom Trimbath

Fresh ideas, inventions that I pass along to the world. Maybe they’re useful. Maybe they’re fun.

There must be some dance instructor, maybe all of them, that eventually tires of saying the same thing repeatedly whether it is 1-2-3, 1-2-3; or quick-quick-slow; or triple-step triple-step rock-step; or whatever the class requires.

So, how about a metronome that uses their voice, or a recorded voice, or a computer generated voice that says the same thing and can say it to different cadences? That way the metronome could keep the beat and emphasize the basics while the instructor verbally adds the necessary cues, instructions, compliments or corrections.

The device could be mechanical with a simple recorder incorporated. It could also simply be software that plays on its own via computer or portable player. It could also layer onto music if the beat was synchronized.

I feel sorry for instructors who are trying to do three things at once, and maybe four if they are dancing at the same time. This way at least a task or two is taken care of.

I suspect that some dancers would appreciate it too as they drill the basics as they practice.

Just an idea, a simple idea, but if it helps people dance and makes like easier for the instructors, then I think it is a good idea. Well, I think it is a good idea anyway, but if it was used, then it is a useful idea and that’s good too.

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Hope From Pops

Posted on November 19, 2011 by Tom Trimbath

Quick. Stop the stock. It popped too quickly. On Wednesday, trading was halted in DNDN because too many people wanted it too quickly. The stock jumped 15% within minutes as millions of shares were traded. Investors and spectators watched for news. There was none. The stock started trading again and settled back down. Evidently the pop meant nothing to most. For me, I’ve seen other such signs as evidence of hope and latent optimism. Pops can produce that.

In rational markets, and for theoretical companies, stock prices move in reaction to financial news. Every quarter the company reports its finances, and every investor hears the same news at the same time and can react as quickly as anyone. In the real world, analysts, researchers, and speculators lead a charge by buying or selling in anticipation based on quantitative analysis. There’s a reason for every move.

In irrational markets, like the one we’re in now, emotion rules. Fear or greed drive busts and booms. Remember booms? They do happen but the last one was so long ago that most people only recognize it as story, not as a possible reality. Fear has driven the markets since 2001. Good news is disbelieved or at least heavily discounted. Bad news is amplified and used as cause for retreating from investing in anything intangible. Financial instruments have evaporated. Countries are ready to default. Gold is eternal. Gold is $1,700 an ounce. I remember thinking $600 an ounce was too much.

DNDN is up to $8.34 after dropping down to $6.46 from a high of over $54. Its drops have been associated with increasing revenues. Below average expectations have been the excuse to drop the stock. I began to fear that the stock price would not recover. Then it popped.

Stocks rising in anticipation of positive earnings rise over the course of days or weeks, sometimes months. Stocks can rise from other news too: buyouts, product launches, regional expansions, competitors losing their advantage, etc. When I see a stock pop like DNDN did, it suggests to me that there are many investors on the sidelines watching the stock, waiting for an announcement that they can’t time. A rumor hits the mill and fast fingers fire off orders for shares in anticipation of significant news and price rises. If the rumor or news is inconsequential, the stock falls back. But rather than be disappointed in the decline, I concentrate on the sign that others know something potentially significantly positive.

For DNDN, I suspect the news is related to a buyout (which I think has a low end of $60, but in this market could be lower), or European approval for Provenge, the prostate cancer treatment. MVIS has similar pops anytime a rumor links them with Apple. Apple has released patents that include embedded projectors. Microvision makes the necessary components. Apple is very secretive about its product releases. It is easy to imagine Apple springing some new, innovative gadget onto the consumer market that suddenly makes Microvision profitable. Christmas is coming up. How about a new i-something that ends up on every wish list? Take Apple’s design style and apply it to Intel’s game controller with the Microvision pico-projector. Speculations are easy to make.

Pops are easy to discount and ignore because they usually retreat because the rumored news rarely becomes real. For a whlie though, pops didn’t form. Fear was so pervasive and optimism so out of fashion that good news fell like a tree in an unpopulated forest.

Pops aren’t limited to stocks. Good news can pop up anywhere. We may be able to move faster than the speed of light. Cold fusion may succeed. Financial reform may result from the  efforts of the Occupy Wall Street movement. Unexpected resources, help from those we know, good weather can be found without warning. It tried to snow last night. Today the sunshine is melting the ice from the roads.

Something about Dendreon is encouraging DNDN. The stock ended the week above the height of Wednesday’s pop because the price gradually traded higher. Maybe the pop marked the turning point between fear paralyzing investors into merely being spectators, and reminding them of the advantages of being positive and long term investors.

As for me, I am an optimist, with internal cautions of pessimism. I’m invested as much as ever because I remain optimistic which also means that when we hear the good news I won’t merely be a spectator. The pops I see reinforce the hope I always have. I hope I’m right.

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Fresh Idea Electric Woodstove

Posted on November 18, 2011 by Tom Trimbath

Fresh ideas, inventions that I pass along to the world. Maybe they’re useful. Maybe they’re fun.

An electric woodstove. This fresh idea is actually from a few years ago, but last night’s threat of snow encouraged me to write it up today. Make a woodstove that works as a woodstove and that doubles as an electro-thermal radiator.

Why would anyone want to combine the two?

Pre-heated backup heat
For people who prefer the ease and cleanliness of electric heat, a power outage is a dramatic switch. A fire has to be started in the woodstove, and the first heat goes into warming hundreds of pounds of metal. The cold metal keeps the firebox temperature low and more likely to smoke. A woodstove that was already acting as a radiator was probably already hot. The fire would start quicker and cleaner, which is good for the house, the resident and the environment.

Simplified furniture placement
Live in a house with a woodstove and you soon learn to keep a safe zone around it. Code requires it, but pragmatism also encourages space for the safety of people and furnishings. The same thing is true with electric baseboard heaters. Put a woodstove in a room with baseboard heaters and there’s little room left over for a sofa. Build the baseboard heater into the woodstove and the available floor space increases.

Backup range
Wire the woodstove up correctly and it might even act as an electric oven, a cooktop, or both. Kitchens operated from wood-fired ovens and cooktops. It should be possible to make a stove and a cooktop that can operate from whichever the cook prefers.

The idea seemed odd to me at first. Wiring up a big hunk of metal to make it hot enough to heat the room only seems odd relative to baseboard heaters and forced air or radiant floor systems. Compared to a woodstove, there’s no difference, except for the plug.

A large mass of metal acts as a heat sink or source, gradually and quietly responding to the need. Odd? Maybe. Dramatic? No. Maybe we need many more quiet incremental solutions to today’s problems.

Hmm, I wonder if the heat sink could absorb energy from wind and solar too. Another idea!

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Need To Dance

Posted on November 16, 2011 by Tom Trimbath

Tuesday night is dance night. Actually, on Whidbey, any night can be dance night. I know someone who dances six nights out of seven and purposely misses the one so she can rest for the rest. Rural communities make their own entertainment. One friend and dancer came in last night and needed to dance. She’s been looking for a job for months, sending out lots of applications, and working hard at maintaining hope. She’s not alone. Luckily, there were people to dance with. She was smiling less than two songs later. Sometimes staying positive is a dance, and dancing is frequently more fun when it’s not done alone.

Within the last few days I received an email from a fellow investor, reader, and searcher. (I’d include the original text but I haven’t checked with him.) He, too, is unemployed despite months of searching and feels that the rest of life is fine except for work and money. He was nice enough to reach out and talk about mutual support. We’re all in this together. (Hmm, the matchmaker in me wonders if the two of them should meet.)

As I’ve said before (Group Think) in the words of one of my favorite authors “Shared pain is lessened; shared joy is increased . . .” – Spider Robinson. We gather together to ease each other’s woes. And the flip side will be that we get to gather together to take the eventual celebration higher.

It is easy to envision the Occupy Movement as advocacy, but it may also be mutual commiseration. Everything is else is working. Why aren’t our institutions, especially in a represented democracy? That’s probably how most movements get started, a mutual gripe and support session grows until words result in action. Wars have been stopped that way. Presidents ousted. Star Trek was renewed be popular demand. That last one may not feel as consequential to non-geeks.

Yesterday had another head-banging moment. I paid my mortgage. Astute readers will note that it was the middle, not the end of the month. No, I wasn’t paying it two weeks early. In the kind words of the customer service person, I had a flawless record with them, and no, getting the payment in on the last day of the grace period wouldn’t change that. The mortgage was due October 31st. Dendreon was going to announce earnings in the first week of November. The stock (DNDN) had fallen from $42 to $38 to $18 to $12 while revenues were increasing. Surely the irrational market would see the new earnings and pop the stock back up to at least $18 or maybe its old values. It could happen. I’d rather wait for the earnings, sell the stock at a higher price and then pay the mortgage. Earnings were in. Earnings were up. The stock dropped to $7. Bang the head once. Take a breath. Surely the stock will recover somewhat. I gave it time to recover. Nope. When I finally sold I made sure there was enough time for the money to clear and for the check to get to mailed to the mortgage company on time. Oops. I forgot about Veterans Day closures. I’d cut things too close. Bang the head again. But I called the company, checked the details of when the money would flow and realized that I could sneak in by waiting just long enough and then overnighting the check. I’d never done anything like that before. It didn’t feel good; so, I laid my head down on the table.

With my head down, I was thankful that I had the money to pay the bill. I sold what I considered to be vastly undervalued stock to pay that bill and, unless book, photo, card, job or other revenues don’t come in soon, I’ll have to do it again for the rest of the bills, possibly by selling from within my IRA and paying the penalty for being 52. And I was thankful because I knew that others didn’t have that option. I danced with my money, shuffling some from this account to that, managing my expenses while maintaining optimism for my various projects, portfolio positions, and the opportunity for the universe to positively surprise me.

As the man said above, “…the rest of life is fine except for work and money”. The rest of life is fine. I live a frugal life. My lifestyle doesn’t change much with changes in wealth. The biggest changes are in repair and maintenance, with a few extra vacations thrown in. As another former millionaire agreed, having more than enough eases opening the mail. See a bill. Pay the bill. Then go back out to working in the garden or going on a bike ride. Need to fix something? Fix it, and enjoy the fix. What I miss most is being able to take on home projects by simply going to the hardware store, buying the materials, renting the equipment, and getting the job done. There’s a pencilled line on my wall waiting for the money to get the replacement appliance to be the cornerstone to a new kitchen. Thirty year old appliances are quaint but quirky, and I’m asking them to last a bit longer.

Last night’s dance was fun. I dance – I smile. No great introspection is required. Do and enjoy. Almost every Tuesday night a group of us get together to practice dancing. We’ve found a need for a place and a time to practice what we’ve learned in class without the pressure some feel at a dance. For $5 each, we conduct a weekly fundraiser for an historic dance hall, learn a little, play a little, exercise a lot, and have fun. I won’t work out in a gym for one or two hours, but I regularly dance for three hours. One aspect of social dancing, dancing with a partner for fun instead of competition or performance, is connection. After finally learning how not to trip, it’s easier to notice if someone is tense from a hard day, slack from a lack of enthusiasm, or relaxed and enjoying life. Dancers can help dance the pain away, and dance to celebrate what’s good about life.

Shared pain, shared joy, the dance we do with each other helps regardless of work and money. I think we all need to dance, and luckily, we all get to dance.

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Tides Reprise

Posted on November 12, 2011 by Tom Trimbath

Writers know the feeling. We all do at various times. An old note, an old quote, an old recording brings back to mind a time in life that is reminiscent and yet different. I’ve blogged for three years, just about since the market started crashing and right after Obama became President. I looked back at some of the early posts to see how the blog and my writing have progressed. One post resonates, and yet plays in a different setting now. Here I reprise my post from November 17, 2008 with an updated addendum.

Set the wayback machine to:

Tides – Monday, November 17, 2008

Rising tides lift all boats. Okay, the tide’s gone out and there are plenty of hulls sitting on the tide flats. Time for the tide to come back in.

As simplistic as that analogy sounds, boaters know it isn’t always so. Depending on where you moored in the bay, your boat may still be afloat and moving with every wave, bouncy but buoyant. Lots of other hulls are stuck on the mud. A few will be damaged, their hulls pierced as the tide settled them on rocks or other old wrecks. A rising tide is something for those owners to fear. They want the tide to stay out long enough for them to patch their boats.

Over the last few evenings, the tides have been exceptionally low. A low tide near midnight makes for an interesting beach walk in the dark. I stood at the edge of receded shore and looked south down Puget Sound. Even in the day I can’t see the south horizon. The Sound is a bowl tens of miles long. From the sand I stood on to the water level at high tide is twelve feet. I stood there imagining a long bowl miles wide, tens of miles long and twelve feet deep. Within hours the tide would quietly and inexorably fill that volume. Hundreds or thousands of square miles times twelve feet of water. It is easy to feel tiny, small, and weak compared to such a force.

It is hard to tell the exact time that the tide turns. Was this wave the inflection point, or was it a ship’s wake?

The financial tide is turning or will eventually. Like most folks, I wish my portfolio was already being lifted. Already some stocks seemed to have bottomed. Very few are still falling. And I get the early hints that some are rising again, or at least their hulls are slowly rocking as the tide tentatively touches them.

Tides can come in as fast as they go out. Living beside a bay on the Sound has proved to me that the tides make waves that aren’t tsunamis, but are truly tidal waves. They rush and make noise when they move quickly enough. But what’s to say that we haven’t just witnessed the first phase of a financial tsunami? The approach of a tsunami is a surprising retreat by the water. The powerful wave follows and is merciless. Only the most stable structures and the lucky survive. A harsh analogy, but these are dramatic times.

I don’t know how this will all play out. I’m more risk tolerant than almost everyone I know and even I am anxious about the future. But the future is inevitable. All we have to do is wait and it will show up. In the meantime, rather than sit in fear, I’m checking the hull, the charts, and my provisions so that when the tide rushes in I’m not stuck, I know where to go, and have enough to get me there.

And for those who tire of such analogies, I’m double checking my stocks, looking around for oversold stocks to buy in case money becomes available, and making sure of my living expenses, even if that means spending more to establish my art. I’m also checking employment opportunities. If the tide stays out too long I might go get a job to pay the bills, keep from diminishing the portfolio, and buy low as much as possible. That’s a leverage than turn this time from a drama into an opportunity.

Stay tuned. This is a story for the books. This is history.

And now, a return to 2011.

I got the history part right. I knew it was possible for things to be this bad for this long, but I thought it was improbable. Since then, all of my companies are either making more money or are further along with their products. According to zillow, my house value is recovering. I’m feeling healthier. My business is busier. Books, photos, videos, consulting, and speaking fill my schedule. Yet finances look worse for me and the country and the global infrastructure. I’ve done my part, but the external influences of buyouts, bailouts, debt ceilings, currency devaluations, sovereign debt have all worked against my concerted efforts. I am not alone. Great crowds of unemployed expend considerable efforts with insufficient results. At one time I expected corporate greed to prop up the system because it made money from consumers, but the bailouts convinced me that they may have found other sources of cash. The debt crises demonstrated to me that they were fearful of a global confidence collapse, which they contributed to by pulling money out of markets and assuming overly conservative stances. Investments dried up. They held back the tide.

The tide will turn. Many of us have spent the time repairing boats that ended up on rocks. But the shoreline is getting dry. The barnacles and clams closed their doors tight and won’t consider opening them until they’re well watered again. Until then I’ll keep busy, continue to apply for jobs, and openly invite the universe to deliver sufficient and significant economic resources very soon. Lotteries can be won, you know.

By the way, that old blog is ostracized by overly proprietary Apple software. IWeb doesn’t play well with others. If anyone has an inexpensive and efficient way to import 200 blog posts into wordpress, call me.

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What Is Working

Posted on November 9, 2011 by Tom Trimbath

Would you rather hear about what isn’t working? Go watch the news. I could write about what isn’t working within my own life, but that gets me nowhere. It’s like standing hip deep in a swamp and complaining about the water. It’s good to vent a few choice words about that, but then it’s time to work at finding dry land. Most the media is a mass in a morass, shouting at each other. The politicians seem to wade towards them so they can be seen to be shouting too. I’ve turned off my television, turned my back on the hubbub, and am feeling through the murky water, using my toes to stumble across whatever can lift me a bit higher. I look up too. Maybe there’s a rope ladder hanging from a tree, or at least some blue sky.

Some mornings before I post I take myself out for a walk. I could sit inside and hunt for inspiration by idly reading other people’s postings, tweeted news, or facebook feeds. It might be quicker than visiting the resident guard llama and her herd of floppy-eared goats. (I live in an interesting neighborhood.) Stepping outside is a reminder of what exists beyond the confines of my monitor and stack of bills.

It is a gorgeous autumn morning. The maples have turned, but haven’t shed their leaves. It seems to be happening late this year. The sun is up. The rain is holding off until this afternoon. A walk outside was a great excuse to make those rude noises that come with the recovery from a cold. Sniffles and such don’t seem to bother the livestock. My walk helped breakfast settle and made me look forward to the cup of tea I am drinking during typing breaks.

A walk is a simple thing that costs little and is worth a lot. In the depths of my personal emotional swamp during the previous market crash, I worked instead of walked until my body rebelled with aches and pains. When I started walking, the pains receded, but my thoughts remained tethered to my worries. Practice, practice, and now my walks are more likely to remind me of the positive things I have and get to do when I return home. There is typing to do, emails to send and answer, research to consider, and art to produce. There are classes, consultations, and collaborations to prepare for. Sometimes the preparation is as basic as cleaning the dining room table, and heating up some water for tea.

Most people reading this are already aware of the sudden surge in web traffic generated by a recent post (Micro Vision). My YouTube videos of Whidbey Island are being well-received and cross-posted. (Thank you keepers of the Admiralty Head Lighthouse.) Thursday, I teach a class in Modern Self-Publishing. Friday, I perform a talk and slideshow at South Whidbey Commons. Saturday, I help Whidbey Camano Land Trust with a work party. Then there’s a dance. Then there’s dancing. And yes, it looks like I said the same thing twice but I didn’t. Read more closely. Then there’s charity work that may turn into employment. Along the way there are books to write (Scotland), more videos to produce (one solo plus two collaborations), and hopefully consultations and responding to numerous planning emails. Next year’s calendar is starting to fill. It is less than two months away. Amidst all of this I am also applying for jobs.

The main trickle down I’ve seen in this economy is that of fear constraining wallets and progress. Too many people are listening to the swamp cries. There are advantages to steady paychecks, especially when my savings are diminishing faster than my income is increasing. I know my business can sustain me, but the timing seems to be a little off. Of course, the next email or phone call could make my business (Trimbath Creative Enterprises) profitable enough to pay my bills, sustain my lifestyle, and give me enough money to financially thrive.

I make the distinction about financially thrive because the rest of my life, the non-financial part, the real non-abstract, not-based-on-ideology part, the objective and subjective parts of my life outside of money, are doing well. I’m happier and healthier than I’ve been in years. I’m financially poorer, at least in terms of this moment’s stock prices and my stock portfolio, than anytime in the last two decades. The last time I had so little was when I bought my first house. A month later its value was up 30%. I didn’t have any extra cash, but at least my net worth increased. (Maybe I should check the zillow estimate for my house again. Whoa! Up 6% since the last time I checked.)

My story is a busy story. Monday afternoon was spent listing my projects (supply) and my customers/patrons/clients. One category was books. I have five books for sale through conventional booksellers (amazon, bookstores, etc.) and a different five through blurb. That’s one category. There are nine other categories – and I’m applying for jobs. I’m busy, and I am not alone.

The busiest people I know are unemployed. They are working hard at finding work, building businesses, living frugally, and trying to maintain health and sanity. Some pundits and politicians claim that anyone who wants a job can find a job. Anyone can start a business. But those claims are made by people for whom it worked. They see in the mirror that it worked for them, but I get the impression that they ignore the people behind the businesses that didn’t succeed, that encountered bad luck, that tried the wrong market, or had the wrong timing, or even simply chose the wrong name.

What’s working for our country, eventually, is that a lot of people are working hard at working. Honest, sincere people who haven’t given up despite a lack of their government’s support. People who could easily be scared by the amplified swamp cries. As they improve their footing, whether incrementally by cautiously testing with their toes, or by pulling themselves out via low-hanging branches or old rope swings, they will be the true job creators and wealth creators. They’re probably less likely to get a hand and more likely to lend a hand, or at least leave trail signs because they know there are others out there working hard at finding a way to drier ground. As for the pundits and politicians who revel in the mud, well, at least they seem to enjoy each other’s company. I’ll let them fend for themselves.

What is working for me is almost every aspect of my life besides cash flow. Better cash flow would give me more time to spend on everything else; but luckily, at least I’m learning to recognize that those parts of my life exist regardless of the abstraction we call money. And I think that, considering how hard I am working, that will work for me too.

(UnShameless Self-Promotion(a personal opportunity for improvement) – Christmas is coming up. Cards, art, books for sale. Just saying.)

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Post Properly Positioned

Posted on November 8, 2011 by Tom Trimbath

The power of the properly positioned post.

One post, that was re-posted to a place I never posted (Yahoo and flame wars are too common) is a enlightening lesson in the power of the properly positioned post.

Micro Vision, a post about a potentially world-changing company that is potentially in a financial death spiral (Microvision), reached more than four times the audience of my previously most popular post (More Than Stocks – a quick investing compendium) and a recent resurgence in the second most popular post (Golden Revolution – the chance of a return to the original Golden Rule).

I posted it to my blog, as usual. In an unusual move I cross-posted it on a Microvision discussion board (Investor Village). Investor Village spiked the numbers. That spike shrunk in contrast to the Yahoo spike after someone was kind enough to repost it  there. A little more than a week into November and my web site has drawn more traffic than any previous month – and there are three weeks to go.

So now I wonder. Where else should I be posting my blog entries? Evidently there is a much larger audience for my work just a link or two away. As a nod to the power of networking and as a sign of trust, feel free to post and repost without checking with me.

Writers should never underestimate the power of readers. Thanks folks. It is a joy watching words and ideas spread (sans flames).

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Irrational Markets

Posted on November 5, 2011 by Tom Trimbath

Rational plans fail in irrational markets, at least in the short term. If you hadn’t noticed, our civilization is acting irrationally. Priorities are disassociated from needs. Compensation schemes are taken to extremes. Prices are uncoupled from values. In the short term, that can mean confusion in any attempt to make sense of the world. As one of the Occupy signs says, “Don’t confuse the complexity of this movement with chaos.” It is easy to think the chaos is everything. In the long term though, this redefinition of our society will probably result in needs better met, a retreat from extremes, and a return to values. A rational plan that can be sustained through the interim may be incredibly valuable. In the meantime, my rational plan is being challenged as the prices of my stocks are not matching the value of those companies.

Dendreon reported earnings after market on Wednesday. They’ve tripled earnings since last year. The stock (DNDN) is down 80% from that same time. Make more money, witness a stock drop. Rationally, those holdings alone should be funding an expansive lifestyle, or at least giving me the extra cash to get some maintenance done in addition to paying the bills.

Real Goods Solar’s revenues are up 28%. The stock (RSOL) is down 46%.

GigOptix’s product revenues are up 43%. The stock (GGOX) is down 17%.

The companies I’ve invested in are doing well, maybe not as well as initially expected, but it is rational to expect that any company growing in these dismal economic times should be selling at a premium instead of a discount. Irrationality is piled on irrationality.

Others with similar portfolios are worried and having cautious talks with themselves and their partners about what to do. Who knows? No one does. Yet, in general, rational plans maintained through irrational times can prevail as long as the fundamental assumptions don’t change. I continue to recall Louis Rukeyser‘s comment during the bust after the Internet bubble that paraphrased is, “The people investing now will be the people that will be rich ten years from now.” I’m sure he wasn’t claiming anything special about ten years versus nine or eleven, though the bottom of the NASDAQ bust was about 2003, so maybe in a year or two . . . Anyway, the point was that while everyone else was in panic, others would see quiet counter-intuitive opportunity. If I was gainfully employed, I’d be buying stocks; but remember, I have an extraordinary risk tolerance.

Unfortunately, while the value of my companies has increased, the value of my portfolio has seriously diminished, and the responses to my job applications have been, “Thanks. but no.” Ever the optimist, though sometimes with a struggle, sufficient income may arrive at any moment via sales, consulting fees, speaking events, paychecks, or windfalls. Lotteries can be won. Maybe a rainbow will end in my yard and I’ll find a jar of gold. If it nothing changes though, I’ll be dipping into a radically reduced IRA within the next few weeks. Eek.

My neighborhood has a beach and a fire pit. I tend to only use it in the cold months after Labor Day and before Memorial Day. That may be counter-intuitive but the warm days include unsupervised neighborhood children and people who dispose of dud fireworks in the firepit. A beach fire on a quiet November night is relaxing. I sat there wondering what went wrong. Why was I having to consider diving into my IRA? And then those revenue numbers came to mind. I hadn’t made any glaring mistakes. I invested in good companies. I did my research. I diversified. I live my life frugally. I don’t try to cheat the system. Sometimes it just works out that way. I also knew that I wasn’t alone. Millions of retirees, millions of job seekers, millions of overworked, underpaid employees are wondering what went wrong despite years of doing things right. The Occupy Movement is proof that I am not alone.

The Movement is not a surprise, except to those who live isolated from bad luck and who are ignoring history. This isn’t the first time economic inequities have raised public outcries. Big buffers have their benefits, but sometimes they also filter out compassion, which is a sad consequence and also may be why there’s a disassociation between social priorities and needs. Continually increasing executive compensation can seem normal when compared against other executive compensation packages equally buffered from mainstream life. The extremes probably wouldn’t be reached if they were compared against entry salaries, student debts, health care costs, and poverty levels. I doubt that money has retreated from the market because of high-net-worth individuals fearing the Movement. I suspect it has withdrawn in fear of EU and possible USA economic collapse. In fear it is easy to be blind to other’s fears. But the only thing to fear is fear. “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.” – Franklin Roosevelt. Reality lies beyond that view.

A friend commented on my house price and value. The point was made that the value has never really changed. That’s one of the nice things about real estate. Changes usually happen slowly and under the control of the owner. Values can increase through sweat equity or hired help. The price, however, fluctuates. If my financial situation doesn’t improve soon, I’ll be testing that market value.

Many values are stable. The productivity, or at least USA GDP, is impressive. Wealth has been and is being generated, though the trickling down may be plugged somewhere. We have all of the assets, abilities and people we need to jointly prosper, maybe with a rewind that re-regulates some unregulated industries and institutions. That worked. This doesn’t. Returning to what worked sounds like a rational option.

That night by the fire convinced me that I’d followed, am following, and should continue to follow my rational plan. The last time the market was this irrational my portfolio tripled within months and that only happened because I didn’t suddenly change plans. And besides, the optimist in me knows that every moment contains the possibility of surprising, significant, sufficient good news. In an infinite universe it is a finite probability, even though some feel it is impossible – but I think they’re irrational.

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After Market

Posted on November 2, 2011 by Tom Trimbath

Wait for the after market. That’s a busy phrase in my life today, and it isn’t even 9AM as I start typing. Three stocks familiar to my portfolio will announce earnings after the market closes. My blog post about Microvision and the after market HUD being developed by Pioneer has drawn a lot of traffic. And living on the west coast means that there’s a lot of day left after the market closes, and I’m looking forward to that too. So much for being in the present. Evidently this morning’s a time to think about what comes after.

There are many caveats about after market trading. The volumes are thin. There are fewer trade restrictions and protections. What happens then is usually disassociated from what happens the next day. I can’t recall ever trading outside of the normal hours. Today it is moot. I don’t have enough cash to make a difference and I have no intention of selling before the news. Others may be waiting for the moments I miss though because they want to react before the market or to take advantage of those that dive in without life guards.

After the market closes, Dendreon, Real Goods Solar, and Gaiam (DNDN, RSOL, GAIA) all plan to announce earnings. Dendreon is my largest holding, even after its plummet. Real Goods Solar is one of my safer plays, though no play has been safe in this market. Gaiam is gone from my portfolio, but seller’s remorse and curiosity encourage me to watch one more time.

Here I am at the start of November, ready to sell something else (unless book sales, photo sales, teaching revenue, consultation fees or a lottery jackpot come in quickly.) As I’ve said recently, I think the low end of DNDN’s buyout value is $60, and the real value of the company is much higher. Current valuations are based on fear, or rationalized by only accounting for current revenues and not accounting for treatment, region, or pipeline expansions. Prior to last quarter’s earnings report the stock drifted from $42 down to $38 and then deflated all the way down to $8, largely because of a 20% miss on revenues, but probably because the news came out almost on the same day as news about debt ceilings and European crises. A 20% drop in revenue might be recovered within the last quarter, in which case the revenues didn’t vanish. They were merely delayed. DNDN at $38 again is enough to pay my bills and draw down some of my credit card debt, and maybe switch back to bottled wine after a few months of boxed vintages.

Real Goods Solar doesn’t have as large on influence, yet; but it is trading at less than book value and only at about a third of sales, and sales have more than doubled since 2008. Doubled the revenues and halved the stock price. Can you say irrational market?

Gaiam reporting earnings at the same time as Real Goods isn’t a surprise. They are tied because Gaiam spun off and owns a lot of Real Goods. Both companies have similar price-to-book and price-to-sales ratios, despite the fact that Real Goods is effectively a construction firm and Gaiam is a consumer retailer. I sold GAIA at the end of September to pay some bills. Since then it’s risen from $3.24 to $3.80, up 17%. Oh well, so it goes.

Which set of numbers will finally bring a rational reaction from the investment community? I have to wait until after market close to find out.

Microvision is influenced by another variation on after market, but this time it’s cars. Pioneer is developing a head-up-display for cars, a see-through display that draws directions onto a windshield so a driver can concentrate on the road and also see where they are supposed to turn. Evidently, some mysterious units are being designed for new models, already incorporated into the vehicle; but to get to market quicker, Pioneer is selling a clip-on unit that can go into existing cars.

Working within normal market hours and market cycles doesn’t seem to be the theme for the day.

So, what I am looking forward to the most? What happens after the market. As much as I write about market conditions, stocks, personal finance, and strategic planning, I am most interested in what happens in the rest of my world. Too many people are too wrapped up in the world of finance to see the world beyond Wall Street. It is easy to get trapped within the bubble that paints the world with variations of dollar signs. Compassion has a rough time filtering through.

A friend and I were talking last night about life in the mainstream whitewater versus life in the smaller rural eddies. Rural island life can be taken slower because it becomes obvious that there’s more than enough to enjoy in the here and now, and the here and now are delivered every moment for free. We both chose this life consciously. Frugality has its benefits because it makes such a life more sustainable and attainable. Of course, substantial wealth wouldn’t hurt. We’ve both been there and know what that’s like too. It’s nice to know that money doesn’t have to change anything except making it easier to pay the bills. (I truly enjoyed paying utility bills months in advance so I could ignore them for months to come. Ah, those were the days – that may come back.)

I’m invested in the market because I live in our society. Over the long term, investing can make money from money, which is an advantage I don’t want to ignore. My friend invests in land. I invest in stocks. I know others that invest in others. But I do it, and we do it, for what happens elsewhere, for what happens after we turn away from the market and turn back to our lives. What comes after the market is the rest of life.

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