Fresh Idea Electric Woodstove

Posted on November 18, 2011 by Tom Trimbath

Fresh ideas, inventions that I pass along to the world. Maybe they’re useful. Maybe they’re fun.

An electric woodstove. This fresh idea is actually from a few years ago, but last night’s threat of snow encouraged me to write it up today. Make a woodstove that works as a woodstove and that doubles as an electro-thermal radiator.

Why would anyone want to combine the two?

Pre-heated backup heat
For people who prefer the ease and cleanliness of electric heat, a power outage is a dramatic switch. A fire has to be started in the woodstove, and the first heat goes into warming hundreds of pounds of metal. The cold metal keeps the firebox temperature low and more likely to smoke. A woodstove that was already acting as a radiator was probably already hot. The fire would start quicker and cleaner, which is good for the house, the resident and the environment.

Simplified furniture placement
Live in a house with a woodstove and you soon learn to keep a safe zone around it. Code requires it, but pragmatism also encourages space for the safety of people and furnishings. The same thing is true with electric baseboard heaters. Put a woodstove in a room with baseboard heaters and there’s little room left over for a sofa. Build the baseboard heater into the woodstove and the available floor space increases.

Backup range
Wire the woodstove up correctly and it might even act as an electric oven, a cooktop, or both. Kitchens operated from wood-fired ovens and cooktops. It should be possible to make a stove and a cooktop that can operate from whichever the cook prefers.

The idea seemed odd to me at first. Wiring up a big hunk of metal to make it hot enough to heat the room only seems odd relative to baseboard heaters and forced air or radiant floor systems. Compared to a woodstove, there’s no difference, except for the plug.

A large mass of metal acts as a heat sink or source, gradually and quietly responding to the need. Odd? Maybe. Dramatic? No. Maybe we need many more quiet incremental solutions to today’s problems.

Hmm, I wonder if the heat sink could absorb energy from wind and solar too. Another idea!

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Need To Dance

Posted on November 16, 2011 by Tom Trimbath

Tuesday night is dance night. Actually, on Whidbey, any night can be dance night. I know someone who dances six nights out of seven and purposely misses the one so she can rest for the rest. Rural communities make their own entertainment. One friend and dancer came in last night and needed to dance. She’s been looking for a job for months, sending out lots of applications, and working hard at maintaining hope. She’s not alone. Luckily, there were people to dance with. She was smiling less than two songs later. Sometimes staying positive is a dance, and dancing is frequently more fun when it’s not done alone.

Within the last few days I received an email from a fellow investor, reader, and searcher. (I’d include the original text but I haven’t checked with him.) He, too, is unemployed despite months of searching and feels that the rest of life is fine except for work and money. He was nice enough to reach out and talk about mutual support. We’re all in this together. (Hmm, the matchmaker in me wonders if the two of them should meet.)

As I’ve said before (Group Think) in the words of one of my favorite authors “Shared pain is lessened; shared joy is increased . . .” – Spider Robinson. We gather together to ease each other’s woes. And the flip side will be that we get to gather together to take the eventual celebration higher.

It is easy to envision the Occupy Movement as advocacy, but it may also be mutual commiseration. Everything is else is working. Why aren’t our institutions, especially in a represented democracy? That’s probably how most movements get started, a mutual gripe and support session grows until words result in action. Wars have been stopped that way. Presidents ousted. Star Trek was renewed be popular demand. That last one may not feel as consequential to non-geeks.

Yesterday had another head-banging moment. I paid my mortgage. Astute readers will note that it was the middle, not the end of the month. No, I wasn’t paying it two weeks early. In the kind words of the customer service person, I had a flawless record with them, and no, getting the payment in on the last day of the grace period wouldn’t change that. The mortgage was due October 31st. Dendreon was going to announce earnings in the first week of November. The stock (DNDN) had fallen from $42 to $38 to $18 to $12 while revenues were increasing. Surely the irrational market would see the new earnings and pop the stock back up to at least $18 or maybe its old values. It could happen. I’d rather wait for the earnings, sell the stock at a higher price and then pay the mortgage. Earnings were in. Earnings were up. The stock dropped to $7. Bang the head once. Take a breath. Surely the stock will recover somewhat. I gave it time to recover. Nope. When I finally sold I made sure there was enough time for the money to clear and for the check to get to mailed to the mortgage company on time. Oops. I forgot about Veterans Day closures. I’d cut things too close. Bang the head again. But I called the company, checked the details of when the money would flow and realized that I could sneak in by waiting just long enough and then overnighting the check. I’d never done anything like that before. It didn’t feel good; so, I laid my head down on the table.

With my head down, I was thankful that I had the money to pay the bill. I sold what I considered to be vastly undervalued stock to pay that bill and, unless book, photo, card, job or other revenues don’t come in soon, I’ll have to do it again for the rest of the bills, possibly by selling from within my IRA and paying the penalty for being 52. And I was thankful because I knew that others didn’t have that option. I danced with my money, shuffling some from this account to that, managing my expenses while maintaining optimism for my various projects, portfolio positions, and the opportunity for the universe to positively surprise me.

As the man said above, “…the rest of life is fine except for work and money”. The rest of life is fine. I live a frugal life. My lifestyle doesn’t change much with changes in wealth. The biggest changes are in repair and maintenance, with a few extra vacations thrown in. As another former millionaire agreed, having more than enough eases opening the mail. See a bill. Pay the bill. Then go back out to working in the garden or going on a bike ride. Need to fix something? Fix it, and enjoy the fix. What I miss most is being able to take on home projects by simply going to the hardware store, buying the materials, renting the equipment, and getting the job done. There’s a pencilled line on my wall waiting for the money to get the replacement appliance to be the cornerstone to a new kitchen. Thirty year old appliances are quaint but quirky, and I’m asking them to last a bit longer.

Last night’s dance was fun. I dance – I smile. No great introspection is required. Do and enjoy. Almost every Tuesday night a group of us get together to practice dancing. We’ve found a need for a place and a time to practice what we’ve learned in class without the pressure some feel at a dance. For $5 each, we conduct a weekly fundraiser for an historic dance hall, learn a little, play a little, exercise a lot, and have fun. I won’t work out in a gym for one or two hours, but I regularly dance for three hours. One aspect of social dancing, dancing with a partner for fun instead of competition or performance, is connection. After finally learning how not to trip, it’s easier to notice if someone is tense from a hard day, slack from a lack of enthusiasm, or relaxed and enjoying life. Dancers can help dance the pain away, and dance to celebrate what’s good about life.

Shared pain, shared joy, the dance we do with each other helps regardless of work and money. I think we all need to dance, and luckily, we all get to dance.

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Tides Reprise

Posted on November 12, 2011 by Tom Trimbath

Writers know the feeling. We all do at various times. An old note, an old quote, an old recording brings back to mind a time in life that is reminiscent and yet different. I’ve blogged for three years, just about since the market started crashing and right after Obama became President. I looked back at some of the early posts to see how the blog and my writing have progressed. One post resonates, and yet plays in a different setting now. Here I reprise my post from November 17, 2008 with an updated addendum.

Set the wayback machine to:

Tides – Monday, November 17, 2008

Rising tides lift all boats. Okay, the tide’s gone out and there are plenty of hulls sitting on the tide flats. Time for the tide to come back in.

As simplistic as that analogy sounds, boaters know it isn’t always so. Depending on where you moored in the bay, your boat may still be afloat and moving with every wave, bouncy but buoyant. Lots of other hulls are stuck on the mud. A few will be damaged, their hulls pierced as the tide settled them on rocks or other old wrecks. A rising tide is something for those owners to fear. They want the tide to stay out long enough for them to patch their boats.

Over the last few evenings, the tides have been exceptionally low. A low tide near midnight makes for an interesting beach walk in the dark. I stood at the edge of receded shore and looked south down Puget Sound. Even in the day I can’t see the south horizon. The Sound is a bowl tens of miles long. From the sand I stood on to the water level at high tide is twelve feet. I stood there imagining a long bowl miles wide, tens of miles long and twelve feet deep. Within hours the tide would quietly and inexorably fill that volume. Hundreds or thousands of square miles times twelve feet of water. It is easy to feel tiny, small, and weak compared to such a force.

It is hard to tell the exact time that the tide turns. Was this wave the inflection point, or was it a ship’s wake?

The financial tide is turning or will eventually. Like most folks, I wish my portfolio was already being lifted. Already some stocks seemed to have bottomed. Very few are still falling. And I get the early hints that some are rising again, or at least their hulls are slowly rocking as the tide tentatively touches them.

Tides can come in as fast as they go out. Living beside a bay on the Sound has proved to me that the tides make waves that aren’t tsunamis, but are truly tidal waves. They rush and make noise when they move quickly enough. But what’s to say that we haven’t just witnessed the first phase of a financial tsunami? The approach of a tsunami is a surprising retreat by the water. The powerful wave follows and is merciless. Only the most stable structures and the lucky survive. A harsh analogy, but these are dramatic times.

I don’t know how this will all play out. I’m more risk tolerant than almost everyone I know and even I am anxious about the future. But the future is inevitable. All we have to do is wait and it will show up. In the meantime, rather than sit in fear, I’m checking the hull, the charts, and my provisions so that when the tide rushes in I’m not stuck, I know where to go, and have enough to get me there.

And for those who tire of such analogies, I’m double checking my stocks, looking around for oversold stocks to buy in case money becomes available, and making sure of my living expenses, even if that means spending more to establish my art. I’m also checking employment opportunities. If the tide stays out too long I might go get a job to pay the bills, keep from diminishing the portfolio, and buy low as much as possible. That’s a leverage than turn this time from a drama into an opportunity.

Stay tuned. This is a story for the books. This is history.

And now, a return to 2011.

I got the history part right. I knew it was possible for things to be this bad for this long, but I thought it was improbable. Since then, all of my companies are either making more money or are further along with their products. According to zillow, my house value is recovering. I’m feeling healthier. My business is busier. Books, photos, videos, consulting, and speaking fill my schedule. Yet finances look worse for me and the country and the global infrastructure. I’ve done my part, but the external influences of buyouts, bailouts, debt ceilings, currency devaluations, sovereign debt have all worked against my concerted efforts. I am not alone. Great crowds of unemployed expend considerable efforts with insufficient results. At one time I expected corporate greed to prop up the system because it made money from consumers, but the bailouts convinced me that they may have found other sources of cash. The debt crises demonstrated to me that they were fearful of a global confidence collapse, which they contributed to by pulling money out of markets and assuming overly conservative stances. Investments dried up. They held back the tide.

The tide will turn. Many of us have spent the time repairing boats that ended up on rocks. But the shoreline is getting dry. The barnacles and clams closed their doors tight and won’t consider opening them until they’re well watered again. Until then I’ll keep busy, continue to apply for jobs, and openly invite the universe to deliver sufficient and significant economic resources very soon. Lotteries can be won, you know.

By the way, that old blog is ostracized by overly proprietary Apple software. IWeb doesn’t play well with others. If anyone has an inexpensive and efficient way to import 200 blog posts into wordpress, call me.

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What Is Working

Posted on November 9, 2011 by Tom Trimbath

Would you rather hear about what isn’t working? Go watch the news. I could write about what isn’t working within my own life, but that gets me nowhere. It’s like standing hip deep in a swamp and complaining about the water. It’s good to vent a few choice words about that, but then it’s time to work at finding dry land. Most the media is a mass in a morass, shouting at each other. The politicians seem to wade towards them so they can be seen to be shouting too. I’ve turned off my television, turned my back on the hubbub, and am feeling through the murky water, using my toes to stumble across whatever can lift me a bit higher. I look up too. Maybe there’s a rope ladder hanging from a tree, or at least some blue sky.

Some mornings before I post I take myself out for a walk. I could sit inside and hunt for inspiration by idly reading other people’s postings, tweeted news, or facebook feeds. It might be quicker than visiting the resident guard llama and her herd of floppy-eared goats. (I live in an interesting neighborhood.) Stepping outside is a reminder of what exists beyond the confines of my monitor and stack of bills.

It is a gorgeous autumn morning. The maples have turned, but haven’t shed their leaves. It seems to be happening late this year. The sun is up. The rain is holding off until this afternoon. A walk outside was a great excuse to make those rude noises that come with the recovery from a cold. Sniffles and such don’t seem to bother the livestock. My walk helped breakfast settle and made me look forward to the cup of tea I am drinking during typing breaks.

A walk is a simple thing that costs little and is worth a lot. In the depths of my personal emotional swamp during the previous market crash, I worked instead of walked until my body rebelled with aches and pains. When I started walking, the pains receded, but my thoughts remained tethered to my worries. Practice, practice, and now my walks are more likely to remind me of the positive things I have and get to do when I return home. There is typing to do, emails to send and answer, research to consider, and art to produce. There are classes, consultations, and collaborations to prepare for. Sometimes the preparation is as basic as cleaning the dining room table, and heating up some water for tea.

Most people reading this are already aware of the sudden surge in web traffic generated by a recent post (Micro Vision). My YouTube videos of Whidbey Island are being well-received and cross-posted. (Thank you keepers of the Admiralty Head Lighthouse.) Thursday, I teach a class in Modern Self-Publishing. Friday, I perform a talk and slideshow at South Whidbey Commons. Saturday, I help Whidbey Camano Land Trust with a work party. Then there’s a dance. Then there’s dancing. And yes, it looks like I said the same thing twice but I didn’t. Read more closely. Then there’s charity work that may turn into employment. Along the way there are books to write (Scotland), more videos to produce (one solo plus two collaborations), and hopefully consultations and responding to numerous planning emails. Next year’s calendar is starting to fill. It is less than two months away. Amidst all of this I am also applying for jobs.

The main trickle down I’ve seen in this economy is that of fear constraining wallets and progress. Too many people are listening to the swamp cries. There are advantages to steady paychecks, especially when my savings are diminishing faster than my income is increasing. I know my business can sustain me, but the timing seems to be a little off. Of course, the next email or phone call could make my business (Trimbath Creative Enterprises) profitable enough to pay my bills, sustain my lifestyle, and give me enough money to financially thrive.

I make the distinction about financially thrive because the rest of my life, the non-financial part, the real non-abstract, not-based-on-ideology part, the objective and subjective parts of my life outside of money, are doing well. I’m happier and healthier than I’ve been in years. I’m financially poorer, at least in terms of this moment’s stock prices and my stock portfolio, than anytime in the last two decades. The last time I had so little was when I bought my first house. A month later its value was up 30%. I didn’t have any extra cash, but at least my net worth increased. (Maybe I should check the zillow estimate for my house again. Whoa! Up 6% since the last time I checked.)

My story is a busy story. Monday afternoon was spent listing my projects (supply) and my customers/patrons/clients. One category was books. I have five books for sale through conventional booksellers (amazon, bookstores, etc.) and a different five through blurb. That’s one category. There are nine other categories – and I’m applying for jobs. I’m busy, and I am not alone.

The busiest people I know are unemployed. They are working hard at finding work, building businesses, living frugally, and trying to maintain health and sanity. Some pundits and politicians claim that anyone who wants a job can find a job. Anyone can start a business. But those claims are made by people for whom it worked. They see in the mirror that it worked for them, but I get the impression that they ignore the people behind the businesses that didn’t succeed, that encountered bad luck, that tried the wrong market, or had the wrong timing, or even simply chose the wrong name.

What’s working for our country, eventually, is that a lot of people are working hard at working. Honest, sincere people who haven’t given up despite a lack of their government’s support. People who could easily be scared by the amplified swamp cries. As they improve their footing, whether incrementally by cautiously testing with their toes, or by pulling themselves out via low-hanging branches or old rope swings, they will be the true job creators and wealth creators. They’re probably less likely to get a hand and more likely to lend a hand, or at least leave trail signs because they know there are others out there working hard at finding a way to drier ground. As for the pundits and politicians who revel in the mud, well, at least they seem to enjoy each other’s company. I’ll let them fend for themselves.

What is working for me is almost every aspect of my life besides cash flow. Better cash flow would give me more time to spend on everything else; but luckily, at least I’m learning to recognize that those parts of my life exist regardless of the abstraction we call money. And I think that, considering how hard I am working, that will work for me too.

(UnShameless Self-Promotion(a personal opportunity for improvement) – Christmas is coming up. Cards, art, books for sale. Just saying.)

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Post Properly Positioned

Posted on November 8, 2011 by Tom Trimbath

The power of the properly positioned post.

One post, that was re-posted to a place I never posted (Yahoo and flame wars are too common) is a enlightening lesson in the power of the properly positioned post.

Micro Vision, a post about a potentially world-changing company that is potentially in a financial death spiral (Microvision), reached more than four times the audience of my previously most popular post (More Than Stocks – a quick investing compendium) and a recent resurgence in the second most popular post (Golden Revolution – the chance of a return to the original Golden Rule).

I posted it to my blog, as usual. In an unusual move I cross-posted it on a Microvision discussion board (Investor Village). Investor Village spiked the numbers. That spike shrunk in contrast to the Yahoo spike after someone was kind enough to repost it  there. A little more than a week into November and my web site has drawn more traffic than any previous month – and there are three weeks to go.

So now I wonder. Where else should I be posting my blog entries? Evidently there is a much larger audience for my work just a link or two away. As a nod to the power of networking and as a sign of trust, feel free to post and repost without checking with me.

Writers should never underestimate the power of readers. Thanks folks. It is a joy watching words and ideas spread (sans flames).

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Irrational Markets

Posted on November 5, 2011 by Tom Trimbath

Rational plans fail in irrational markets, at least in the short term. If you hadn’t noticed, our civilization is acting irrationally. Priorities are disassociated from needs. Compensation schemes are taken to extremes. Prices are uncoupled from values. In the short term, that can mean confusion in any attempt to make sense of the world. As one of the Occupy signs says, “Don’t confuse the complexity of this movement with chaos.” It is easy to think the chaos is everything. In the long term though, this redefinition of our society will probably result in needs better met, a retreat from extremes, and a return to values. A rational plan that can be sustained through the interim may be incredibly valuable. In the meantime, my rational plan is being challenged as the prices of my stocks are not matching the value of those companies.

Dendreon reported earnings after market on Wednesday. They’ve tripled earnings since last year. The stock (DNDN) is down 80% from that same time. Make more money, witness a stock drop. Rationally, those holdings alone should be funding an expansive lifestyle, or at least giving me the extra cash to get some maintenance done in addition to paying the bills.

Real Goods Solar’s revenues are up 28%. The stock (RSOL) is down 46%.

GigOptix’s product revenues are up 43%. The stock (GGOX) is down 17%.

The companies I’ve invested in are doing well, maybe not as well as initially expected, but it is rational to expect that any company growing in these dismal economic times should be selling at a premium instead of a discount. Irrationality is piled on irrationality.

Others with similar portfolios are worried and having cautious talks with themselves and their partners about what to do. Who knows? No one does. Yet, in general, rational plans maintained through irrational times can prevail as long as the fundamental assumptions don’t change. I continue to recall Louis Rukeyser‘s comment during the bust after the Internet bubble that paraphrased is, “The people investing now will be the people that will be rich ten years from now.” I’m sure he wasn’t claiming anything special about ten years versus nine or eleven, though the bottom of the NASDAQ bust was about 2003, so maybe in a year or two . . . Anyway, the point was that while everyone else was in panic, others would see quiet counter-intuitive opportunity. If I was gainfully employed, I’d be buying stocks; but remember, I have an extraordinary risk tolerance.

Unfortunately, while the value of my companies has increased, the value of my portfolio has seriously diminished, and the responses to my job applications have been, “Thanks. but no.” Ever the optimist, though sometimes with a struggle, sufficient income may arrive at any moment via sales, consulting fees, speaking events, paychecks, or windfalls. Lotteries can be won. Maybe a rainbow will end in my yard and I’ll find a jar of gold. If it nothing changes though, I’ll be dipping into a radically reduced IRA within the next few weeks. Eek.

My neighborhood has a beach and a fire pit. I tend to only use it in the cold months after Labor Day and before Memorial Day. That may be counter-intuitive but the warm days include unsupervised neighborhood children and people who dispose of dud fireworks in the firepit. A beach fire on a quiet November night is relaxing. I sat there wondering what went wrong. Why was I having to consider diving into my IRA? And then those revenue numbers came to mind. I hadn’t made any glaring mistakes. I invested in good companies. I did my research. I diversified. I live my life frugally. I don’t try to cheat the system. Sometimes it just works out that way. I also knew that I wasn’t alone. Millions of retirees, millions of job seekers, millions of overworked, underpaid employees are wondering what went wrong despite years of doing things right. The Occupy Movement is proof that I am not alone.

The Movement is not a surprise, except to those who live isolated from bad luck and who are ignoring history. This isn’t the first time economic inequities have raised public outcries. Big buffers have their benefits, but sometimes they also filter out compassion, which is a sad consequence and also may be why there’s a disassociation between social priorities and needs. Continually increasing executive compensation can seem normal when compared against other executive compensation packages equally buffered from mainstream life. The extremes probably wouldn’t be reached if they were compared against entry salaries, student debts, health care costs, and poverty levels. I doubt that money has retreated from the market because of high-net-worth individuals fearing the Movement. I suspect it has withdrawn in fear of EU and possible USA economic collapse. In fear it is easy to be blind to other’s fears. But the only thing to fear is fear. “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.” – Franklin Roosevelt. Reality lies beyond that view.

A friend commented on my house price and value. The point was made that the value has never really changed. That’s one of the nice things about real estate. Changes usually happen slowly and under the control of the owner. Values can increase through sweat equity or hired help. The price, however, fluctuates. If my financial situation doesn’t improve soon, I’ll be testing that market value.

Many values are stable. The productivity, or at least USA GDP, is impressive. Wealth has been and is being generated, though the trickling down may be plugged somewhere. We have all of the assets, abilities and people we need to jointly prosper, maybe with a rewind that re-regulates some unregulated industries and institutions. That worked. This doesn’t. Returning to what worked sounds like a rational option.

That night by the fire convinced me that I’d followed, am following, and should continue to follow my rational plan. The last time the market was this irrational my portfolio tripled within months and that only happened because I didn’t suddenly change plans. And besides, the optimist in me knows that every moment contains the possibility of surprising, significant, sufficient good news. In an infinite universe it is a finite probability, even though some feel it is impossible – but I think they’re irrational.

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After Market

Posted on November 2, 2011 by Tom Trimbath

Wait for the after market. That’s a busy phrase in my life today, and it isn’t even 9AM as I start typing. Three stocks familiar to my portfolio will announce earnings after the market closes. My blog post about Microvision and the after market HUD being developed by Pioneer has drawn a lot of traffic. And living on the west coast means that there’s a lot of day left after the market closes, and I’m looking forward to that too. So much for being in the present. Evidently this morning’s a time to think about what comes after.

There are many caveats about after market trading. The volumes are thin. There are fewer trade restrictions and protections. What happens then is usually disassociated from what happens the next day. I can’t recall ever trading outside of the normal hours. Today it is moot. I don’t have enough cash to make a difference and I have no intention of selling before the news. Others may be waiting for the moments I miss though because they want to react before the market or to take advantage of those that dive in without life guards.

After the market closes, Dendreon, Real Goods Solar, and Gaiam (DNDN, RSOL, GAIA) all plan to announce earnings. Dendreon is my largest holding, even after its plummet. Real Goods Solar is one of my safer plays, though no play has been safe in this market. Gaiam is gone from my portfolio, but seller’s remorse and curiosity encourage me to watch one more time.

Here I am at the start of November, ready to sell something else (unless book sales, photo sales, teaching revenue, consultation fees or a lottery jackpot come in quickly.) As I’ve said recently, I think the low end of DNDN’s buyout value is $60, and the real value of the company is much higher. Current valuations are based on fear, or rationalized by only accounting for current revenues and not accounting for treatment, region, or pipeline expansions. Prior to last quarter’s earnings report the stock drifted from $42 down to $38 and then deflated all the way down to $8, largely because of a 20% miss on revenues, but probably because the news came out almost on the same day as news about debt ceilings and European crises. A 20% drop in revenue might be recovered within the last quarter, in which case the revenues didn’t vanish. They were merely delayed. DNDN at $38 again is enough to pay my bills and draw down some of my credit card debt, and maybe switch back to bottled wine after a few months of boxed vintages.

Real Goods Solar doesn’t have as large on influence, yet; but it is trading at less than book value and only at about a third of sales, and sales have more than doubled since 2008. Doubled the revenues and halved the stock price. Can you say irrational market?

Gaiam reporting earnings at the same time as Real Goods isn’t a surprise. They are tied because Gaiam spun off and owns a lot of Real Goods. Both companies have similar price-to-book and price-to-sales ratios, despite the fact that Real Goods is effectively a construction firm and Gaiam is a consumer retailer. I sold GAIA at the end of September to pay some bills. Since then it’s risen from $3.24 to $3.80, up 17%. Oh well, so it goes.

Which set of numbers will finally bring a rational reaction from the investment community? I have to wait until after market close to find out.

Microvision is influenced by another variation on after market, but this time it’s cars. Pioneer is developing a head-up-display for cars, a see-through display that draws directions onto a windshield so a driver can concentrate on the road and also see where they are supposed to turn. Evidently, some mysterious units are being designed for new models, already incorporated into the vehicle; but to get to market quicker, Pioneer is selling a clip-on unit that can go into existing cars.

Working within normal market hours and market cycles doesn’t seem to be the theme for the day.

So, what I am looking forward to the most? What happens after the market. As much as I write about market conditions, stocks, personal finance, and strategic planning, I am most interested in what happens in the rest of my world. Too many people are too wrapped up in the world of finance to see the world beyond Wall Street. It is easy to get trapped within the bubble that paints the world with variations of dollar signs. Compassion has a rough time filtering through.

A friend and I were talking last night about life in the mainstream whitewater versus life in the smaller rural eddies. Rural island life can be taken slower because it becomes obvious that there’s more than enough to enjoy in the here and now, and the here and now are delivered every moment for free. We both chose this life consciously. Frugality has its benefits because it makes such a life more sustainable and attainable. Of course, substantial wealth wouldn’t hurt. We’ve both been there and know what that’s like too. It’s nice to know that money doesn’t have to change anything except making it easier to pay the bills. (I truly enjoyed paying utility bills months in advance so I could ignore them for months to come. Ah, those were the days – that may come back.)

I’m invested in the market because I live in our society. Over the long term, investing can make money from money, which is an advantage I don’t want to ignore. My friend invests in land. I invest in stocks. I know others that invest in others. But I do it, and we do it, for what happens elsewhere, for what happens after we turn away from the market and turn back to our lives. What comes after the market is the rest of life.

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Micro Vision

Posted on October 29, 2011 by Tom Trimbath

Micro was probably a frowned upon prefix in company names prior to Microsoft. Why start a company that starts with something small, something micro? Words become symbols where we overlook the components. Microsoft, small and squishy, and yet a mega-corp and labeled a monopoly. Ah, those MSFT shares are gone, but I have many more of something with a similar name, Microvision, also known as MVIS, also known as a story stock with a long story. Such is the nature of investing in small companies. Will Microvision become a macro-story?

Microvision is such a story stock that most of my friends have heard about it. Some have bought shares. Many are bored with it. My first shares were bought back in 1999 for something like $35. On Friday MVIS traded for $0.80. (Listen and you can hear my fellow shareholders groan.) The company has very little debt but that’s because there has been massive dilution over the years. If things go according to plan, they may become profitable within the next couple of years. That was the story in 1999. That’s the story in 2011. Persistence and perseverance pay off. Good things come to those who wait. Or, expecting something different from the same repeated action can be a sign of insanity (which might explain a lot of politics.) Microvision’s persistence may be legendary if they succeed and would be forgotten if they fail.

They can succeed. From one point of view they already have. They’ve been in business for over a decade. That’s a lot of employees making a lot of mortgage payments, sending kids to school, and living typical American lives. The stock price hasn’t helped my lifestyle though.

Microvision is a company based on a device and an idea, just like Apple, and Intel. What Intel did for moving electrons, Microvision can do for photons, to some extent. Microvision’s products are based on a chip that houses a mirror. That’s simple enough, but not very useful until the mirror is moved. By oscillating the mirror the chip can produce or record an image. Shine one red, one green, and one blue laser on the mirror, turn them on and off appropriately and an image is drawn that doesn’t need to be focused. Shine it on a wind-blown curtain and the image remains sharp. Lasers are handy that way. That may seem like a trivial application and product, but watch your day go by and count the electronic displays. Most of them use fancy glass, complex toxic chemicals, considerable power, and can only be viewed from a small angle. Microvision’s current product is a projector the size of an iPhone, and prototypes have been made with the projector shrunken to operate from within a cell phone. Want to watch a movie on the plane? Just load a movie onto your phone and watch a one foot version if you hold the phone one foot away from the seatback. I use mine for watching DVDs by projecting the image onto a three foot piece of cardboard.

So why aren’t they already a success story and on the cover of Wired, Scientific American, and Fortune? Too many delays, too expensive products, too dim of an image. It wasn’t until the recent CEO got his job a few years ago that I learned that the products couldn’t succeed because there no green laser met their specifications. The previous CEO either didn’t talk about it, or tried to chase other possibilities. Some inquiring minds are agitated by that period. I wouldn’t bring up the issue with them unless you want to hear a lot of impassioned commentary. I can’t blame them. Those were frustrating times. The new CEO finally got a product out the door that actually does what it claims. That happened because he funded the basic physics required to develop the right materials for generating the requisite low-power quickly-modulating green laser. Unfortunately, the units cost more to make than the market is willing to spend. This is new technology, so the power available is small. The projected image is relatively dim. I can’t use mine for watching movies until after the sun’s gone down. Conference room projectors have brightness measured in thousands of lumens. The ShowWX has about 10-20 lumens.

So why do I continue to hold the stock or mention the company? Microvision in 2011 may be like Apple before the release of the Apple II. Microvision’s CEO is not a Steve Jobs. I like what he does, but lets not carry the analogy too far. Edisons, Fords and Jobs are uncommon. But Microvision’s products are useful despite their limitations. And technical limitations change as technology expands borders. Image quality is improving from WVGA to HD. Using newly developed direct green lasers instead of frequency-doubled synthetic green lasers means the image quality has improved, the component cost drops about 80%, and the projector size shrinks. The images are also getting brighter. Just as with the Apple II, the first applications weren’t the ones that powered the personal computer revolution. The MVIS discussion boards (which I claim also act as investor emotional support groups) are talking about stand-alone projectors versus imbedded versus car HUDs versus eyewear versus game controllers versus whatever else we dream up. Whichever products succeed, two or three of them are probably enough to make Microvision a very profitable company. Guesstimates of the company valuation translate into stock valuations of over $100. Guesstimates happen.

This week the company received a delisting notice from NASDAQ. The share price of MVIS has been too low for too long. If MVIS doesn’t rise far enough long enough within a few months NASDAQ may delist the stock. That’s usually not tragic except that it limits many institutions from investing in the stock, which can drop the price further. There are lots of possibilities like reverse splits but it is also possible that the company will have such good news that the stock price will recover.

Despite a depressed stock price (and there’s a lot of that going on) the company is actively being watched by the electronics industry and the financial community. Apple even seems to reference Microvision indirectly in many of their patent applications by describing projectors that have specifications that can only be met by Microvision. Intel has demonstrated a game controller. Pioneer is expected to announce a Head-Up-Display (HUD) for cars next year. Asian partners are already selling second generation products based on the first generation projectors (ESPlus).

My investment history goes back to before 1980. See my book Dream. Invest. Live. for more details. I’ve seen many such companies rise and more of them fall. I’ve also watched ideas and companies pass by. A decade of sustained hope for Microvision and MVIS has not been easy. It is a good example of why many people should not invest the way I do. This is more speculation than investment. Look back over my years of End-Of-Year and Mid-Year reviews posted on Motley Fool, Silicon Investor, or Investor Village and you’ll see the development of the company and my emotional response. I wonder at the ride myself.

Microvision does not have a micro vision. They have a vision that is expansive, disruptive, and pervasive. But to paraphrase a colleague, “Until the story plays to its end, we won’t know if it was a vision, an illusion, or a hallucination.” Stay tuned.

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Thin And Tight

Posted on October 26, 2011 by Tom Trimbath

Feeling stretched thin? Holding tight to your money? There’s a lot of that going around. I’m glad that I saw a bit of lightening this week. Maybe soon it will be easier to stretch, massage, and relax those financial muscles. They can do so much more when they’re loosened.

I dance. This is not news to anyone I know on the island. My party on Saturday had the usual format: “Casual Casual”. Usually it starts with a couple of hours of chat, and then eventually switches over to dancing. Hardwood floors are meant to be used. This party was different. Chatting lasted less than an hour because soon almost everyone was dancing. Pity the writers that showed up who suddenly didn’t have as many folks to talk to. People wanted to move it and shake it – and waltz it.

Times may be tight, but we must continue to live, so parties will continue to happen. Fortunately, relaxed parties don’t cost much and are worth a lot.

My more significant costs are the mortgage and various insurances. Almost exclusively my cash comes from selling stocks. My portfolio remains dismal and selling now is the opposite of “Buy low. Sell high.”, but sell I must. I’m holding onto bills longer than usual, spending less (I’m not even signing up for dance classes!), and taking advantage of grace periods.

Paying bills later does not make them smaller. But in my case, waiting a week or so in November opens the opportunity for Dendreon to report earnings and possibly increase the price of DNDN. Nothing has diminished my buyout valuation for DNDN of above $60, possibly as high as $120. Selling at around $10 is definitely not preferred, but unfortunately would be necessary if I sold today. Maybe next week’s news will move the stock up.

In the meantime I continue to live a frugal life. Except for the dance classes and some house maintenance, most of my daily life is the same. I write. I visit friends. I walk. I take photographs. I run my business (Trimbath Creative Enterprises). I continue to learn how to relax and enjoy life, particularly this moment. That’s a skill I didn’t learn in my first few decades.

Two bright spots showed up in the last few days.

I listed my house for sale. No. Considering selling the first house that I consider a home is not a bright spot. But zillow.com is an online real estate site with an interesting feature. They make it possible to post a “Make Me Move” price. The house doesn’t have to be for sale. Mine isn’t. But it tells the world what it would take to make me move. I decided on $374,450. They think the house’s market value is $249,800. But the house’s value to me is the land plus the structure plus the emotional attachment. Any price affixed to an emotion is arbitrary and abstract. If I sold at $374,450 I’d feel an emotional loss, but pragmatism in this society demands that bills be paid. I’d move, but I wouldn’t be happy about it, but I’d also be thankful for the opportunity to reinvest, possibly buy low, and possibly buy the house back some day. It could happen (so says the internal emotional rationalization.)

The housing bright spot was zillow’s housing estimator. Zillow produces a chart showing estimates and trends for houses like mine within the local city, zip code, and specifically for my house. The data may be sparse. I don’t know their algorithm. But their guess is that my house’s market price bottomed months ago and has recovered more than 20% from the dip. My neighborhood and the surrounding area also seem to be rising. There might just be demand for small houses with good views in neighborhoods that have marinas. It might be a very specific market niche, but it’s good news for my very specific market niche. I’ll take good news in these thin and tight times.

My business (writing, photography, speaking, teaching, and consulting) until recently has been secondary to learning to relax and enjoy life. I was semi-retired, remember? Well, my financial world has thinned and tightened like many, so I’ve devoted more time to my business. I’m less likely to hide my light under a bushel. I’m more likely to expand my publicity and to extend my range. Luckily, I enjoy my work. Fortunately, my efforts are beginning to pay off. Classes are filling. Consultations are increasing. Speaking events are coming in unsolicited. I’ve had more book and photo sales (thank you Whidbey Island Open Studio Tour, Raven Rocks Gallery, and interior designers). The second bright spot is that the business has reimbursed me for some incidentals. I continue to fill its accounts in anticipation of a larger project for next year, and it looks like it will be able to thrive instead of merely sustain, but it also may be able to start paying me. That’s nice after its thin and tight times.

If the real estate market loosens, as my business fills, with a return to rational stock valuations, my financial life will become less thin and tight. Imagine a financial life that is fat and loose. That sounds relaxed and enjoyable, productive and philanthropic, exuberant and expansive. Dancing will commence – maybe with some sweet little thin and tight moves.

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To Do Have Fun

Posted on October 22, 2011 by Tom Trimbath

Have Fun. Great idea. I’ll get to that right after I get a few other things done. Hey fellow workaholics, does that sound familiar? It is easy to to get too wrapped up in career, taking care of the house, fixing the world, or whatever. Step one is recognizing that balance is required. Step two is deciding to do something about it. Step three is actually balancing. Feel free to skip steps one and two and go straight to three. This week I forgot to get past step two. I had fun, but the balance was tipped far to the work side. Time to load up the other side of the scale.

Friday I was going to take the day off. Thursday night’s talk about my walk across Scotland went better than I expected. It was a packed house at Wander on Whidbey and people seemed to enjoy the show. We’ve even talked about an reprise, and maybe a show about my ride across America. I had a good time, otherwise I wouldn’t do as much public speaking as I do. Getting ready for the event, coordinating on three unrelated video projects, writing a book, editing another, setting up a couple of classes in November, as well as helping out friends, filled a week. I know myself. I knew that much work has to be balanced with hours of down time. See? I can be trained!

Friday morning started wonderfully. It was just my kind of sleep-in day. Rain quieted the neighborhood. Thick clouds delayed dawn and slowly settled into a subdued blanket that encouraged reading and sleeping on the couch for hours. I’ve always thought that such days were the inspiration for Seattle’s literary and coffee cultures. Pardon me as I take a sip of tea while the wind chimes barely strike a tone. This morning is a repeat of yesterday. Nice.

But the couch got very little use. Another opportunity to talk arose. One of the local bookstores sent out a call for speakers to fill a gap in their November schedule. Sign me up! I spent some time picking the topic with the planner, organizing the publicity materials, formatting everything, and sending out the packet. The first time for any new talk can take hours of development. While that packet went out, a message came in that a sales venue was moving and I had to pick up my unsold art by the end of the week instead of the end of the month. In addition to my plan of reading and napping, I had planned to write a bit, and spend time in the kitchen preparing for a couple of social events.

My day filled.

As the sun went down I was done, except for the writing and the photography shoot that required something called sunlight or a really long time on a sturdy tripod. It was time for a dinner with friends. Finally, balance. Nope. I’d loaded one side up too much. Walking up to the door I realized that I had no reserves. My energy would probably come back with dinner, but I knew that wouldn’t be soon because I was carrying the groceries. At least that also meant that I was carrying the wine.

I’d gone too far. One drink, one dinner, one evening probably was enough to counter nearly a week’s work, but adding one more day to the wrong side of the balance meant much more would be required to even things out.

One of the reasons I retired early was that I burned out. I was passionate about my work and concentrated on it from interest and enthusiasm, not from a love of money or a feeling of obligation – well maybe a little of the latter. I am one of those lucky few who got a job doing the work they went to school for. I worked on the technologies that I thought would help us spread into space. I like humans and think we should have more than one place to live, for safety, and for the expansion of our collective soul. Evidently though, I didn’t take enough vacations because my own soul grew tired, which wasn’t a safe thing to do.

A friend has a motto that I’ll paraphrase, “If you want a better world, throw a better party.” (Sorry Rick, I can’t find your web site.) I agree.

Too much work, whether it is for improving society, health, the environment, or even finances, is led by passionate people who devote their lives to their causes. The causes need their efforts. Luckily, sometimes those agents of change have found that balance within their efforts. They love what they do, and it provides them with joy and balance. I’m still working on that one. I feel for those who seem to be spending their life energy without replenishment. A few charities and advocacy groups come to mind that could use new volunteers and board members. The existing ones need some time to recuperate.

So, here’s to the other side of the scale. Here’s to balancing life within life regardless of money. Here’s to friends, time together, maybe with that glass of wine.

But first, I want to finish this blog post, clean up the house a bit, finish one of those writing tasks from yesterday, and get ready for a party tonight. Party = good. Reading and napping on the couch? That’s good too. Maybe I’ll get around to it tomorrow.

Have fun.

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