Micro Vision

Posted on October 29, 2011 by Tom Trimbath

Micro was probably a frowned upon prefix in company names prior to Microsoft. Why start a company that starts with something small, something micro? Words become symbols where we overlook the components. Microsoft, small and squishy, and yet a mega-corp and labeled a monopoly. Ah, those MSFT shares are gone, but I have many more of something with a similar name, Microvision, also known as MVIS, also known as a story stock with a long story. Such is the nature of investing in small companies. Will Microvision become a macro-story?

Microvision is such a story stock that most of my friends have heard about it. Some have bought shares. Many are bored with it. My first shares were bought back in 1999 for something like $35. On Friday MVIS traded for $0.80. (Listen and you can hear my fellow shareholders groan.) The company has very little debt but that’s because there has been massive dilution over the years. If things go according to plan, they may become profitable within the next couple of years. That was the story in 1999. That’s the story in 2011. Persistence and perseverance pay off. Good things come to those who wait. Or, expecting something different from the same repeated action can be a sign of insanity (which might explain a lot of politics.) Microvision’s persistence may be legendary if they succeed and would be forgotten if they fail.

They can succeed. From one point of view they already have. They’ve been in business for over a decade. That’s a lot of employees making a lot of mortgage payments, sending kids to school, and living typical American lives. The stock price hasn’t helped my lifestyle though.

Microvision is a company based on a device and an idea, just like Apple, and Intel. What Intel did for moving electrons, Microvision can do for photons, to some extent. Microvision’s products are based on a chip that houses a mirror. That’s simple enough, but not very useful until the mirror is moved. By oscillating the mirror the chip can produce or record an image. Shine one red, one green, and one blue laser on the mirror, turn them on and off appropriately and an image is drawn that doesn’t need to be focused. Shine it on a wind-blown curtain and the image remains sharp. Lasers are handy that way. That may seem like a trivial application and product, but watch your day go by and count the electronic displays. Most of them use fancy glass, complex toxic chemicals, considerable power, and can only be viewed from a small angle. Microvision’s current product is a projector the size of an iPhone, and prototypes have been made with the projector shrunken to operate from within a cell phone. Want to watch a movie on the plane? Just load a movie onto your phone and watch a one foot version if you hold the phone one foot away from the seatback. I use mine for watching DVDs by projecting the image onto a three foot piece of cardboard.

So why aren’t they already a success story and on the cover of Wired, Scientific American, and Fortune? Too many delays, too expensive products, too dim of an image. It wasn’t until the recent CEO got his job a few years ago that I learned that the products couldn’t succeed because there no green laser met their specifications. The previous CEO either didn’t talk about it, or tried to chase other possibilities. Some inquiring minds are agitated by that period. I wouldn’t bring up the issue with them unless you want to hear a lot of impassioned commentary. I can’t blame them. Those were frustrating times. The new CEO finally got a product out the door that actually does what it claims. That happened because he funded the basic physics required to develop the right materials for generating the requisite low-power quickly-modulating green laser. Unfortunately, the units cost more to make than the market is willing to spend. This is new technology, so the power available is small. The projected image is relatively dim. I can’t use mine for watching movies until after the sun’s gone down. Conference room projectors have brightness measured in thousands of lumens. The ShowWX has about 10-20 lumens.

So why do I continue to hold the stock or mention the company? Microvision in 2011 may be like Apple before the release of the Apple II. Microvision’s CEO is not a Steve Jobs. I like what he does, but lets not carry the analogy too far. Edisons, Fords and Jobs are uncommon. But Microvision’s products are useful despite their limitations. And technical limitations change as technology expands borders. Image quality is improving from WVGA to HD. Using newly developed direct green lasers instead of frequency-doubled synthetic green lasers means the image quality has improved, the component cost drops about 80%, and the projector size shrinks. The images are also getting brighter. Just as with the Apple II, the first applications weren’t the ones that powered the personal computer revolution. The MVIS discussion boards (which I claim also act as investor emotional support groups) are talking about stand-alone projectors versus imbedded versus car HUDs versus eyewear versus game controllers versus whatever else we dream up. Whichever products succeed, two or three of them are probably enough to make Microvision a very profitable company. Guesstimates of the company valuation translate into stock valuations of over $100. Guesstimates happen.

This week the company received a delisting notice from NASDAQ. The share price of MVIS has been too low for too long. If MVIS doesn’t rise far enough long enough within a few months NASDAQ may delist the stock. That’s usually not tragic except that it limits many institutions from investing in the stock, which can drop the price further. There are lots of possibilities like reverse splits but it is also possible that the company will have such good news that the stock price will recover.

Despite a depressed stock price (and there’s a lot of that going on) the company is actively being watched by the electronics industry and the financial community. Apple even seems to reference Microvision indirectly in many of their patent applications by describing projectors that have specifications that can only be met by Microvision. Intel has demonstrated a game controller. Pioneer is expected to announce a Head-Up-Display (HUD) for cars next year. Asian partners are already selling second generation products based on the first generation projectors (ESPlus).

My investment history goes back to before 1980. See my book Dream. Invest. Live. for more details. I’ve seen many such companies rise and more of them fall. I’ve also watched ideas and companies pass by. A decade of sustained hope for Microvision and MVIS has not been easy. It is a good example of why many people should not invest the way I do. This is more speculation than investment. Look back over my years of End-Of-Year and Mid-Year reviews posted on Motley Fool, Silicon Investor, or Investor Village and you’ll see the development of the company and my emotional response. I wonder at the ride myself.

Microvision does not have a micro vision. They have a vision that is expansive, disruptive, and pervasive. But to paraphrase a colleague, “Until the story plays to its end, we won’t know if it was a vision, an illusion, or a hallucination.” Stay tuned.

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Thin And Tight

Posted on October 26, 2011 by Tom Trimbath

Feeling stretched thin? Holding tight to your money? There’s a lot of that going around. I’m glad that I saw a bit of lightening this week. Maybe soon it will be easier to stretch, massage, and relax those financial muscles. They can do so much more when they’re loosened.

I dance. This is not news to anyone I know on the island. My party on Saturday had the usual format: “Casual Casual”. Usually it starts with a couple of hours of chat, and then eventually switches over to dancing. Hardwood floors are meant to be used. This party was different. Chatting lasted less than an hour because soon almost everyone was dancing. Pity the writers that showed up who suddenly didn’t have as many folks to talk to. People wanted to move it and shake it – and waltz it.

Times may be tight, but we must continue to live, so parties will continue to happen. Fortunately, relaxed parties don’t cost much and are worth a lot.

My more significant costs are the mortgage and various insurances. Almost exclusively my cash comes from selling stocks. My portfolio remains dismal and selling now is the opposite of “Buy low. Sell high.”, but sell I must. I’m holding onto bills longer than usual, spending less (I’m not even signing up for dance classes!), and taking advantage of grace periods.

Paying bills later does not make them smaller. But in my case, waiting a week or so in November opens the opportunity for Dendreon to report earnings and possibly increase the price of DNDN. Nothing has diminished my buyout valuation for DNDN of above $60, possibly as high as $120. Selling at around $10 is definitely not preferred, but unfortunately would be necessary if I sold today. Maybe next week’s news will move the stock up.

In the meantime I continue to live a frugal life. Except for the dance classes and some house maintenance, most of my daily life is the same. I write. I visit friends. I walk. I take photographs. I run my business (Trimbath Creative Enterprises). I continue to learn how to relax and enjoy life, particularly this moment. That’s a skill I didn’t learn in my first few decades.

Two bright spots showed up in the last few days.

I listed my house for sale. No. Considering selling the first house that I consider a home is not a bright spot. But zillow.com is an online real estate site with an interesting feature. They make it possible to post a “Make Me Move” price. The house doesn’t have to be for sale. Mine isn’t. But it tells the world what it would take to make me move. I decided on $374,450. They think the house’s market value is $249,800. But the house’s value to me is the land plus the structure plus the emotional attachment. Any price affixed to an emotion is arbitrary and abstract. If I sold at $374,450 I’d feel an emotional loss, but pragmatism in this society demands that bills be paid. I’d move, but I wouldn’t be happy about it, but I’d also be thankful for the opportunity to reinvest, possibly buy low, and possibly buy the house back some day. It could happen (so says the internal emotional rationalization.)

The housing bright spot was zillow’s housing estimator. Zillow produces a chart showing estimates and trends for houses like mine within the local city, zip code, and specifically for my house. The data may be sparse. I don’t know their algorithm. But their guess is that my house’s market price bottomed months ago and has recovered more than 20% from the dip. My neighborhood and the surrounding area also seem to be rising. There might just be demand for small houses with good views in neighborhoods that have marinas. It might be a very specific market niche, but it’s good news for my very specific market niche. I’ll take good news in these thin and tight times.

My business (writing, photography, speaking, teaching, and consulting) until recently has been secondary to learning to relax and enjoy life. I was semi-retired, remember? Well, my financial world has thinned and tightened like many, so I’ve devoted more time to my business. I’m less likely to hide my light under a bushel. I’m more likely to expand my publicity and to extend my range. Luckily, I enjoy my work. Fortunately, my efforts are beginning to pay off. Classes are filling. Consultations are increasing. Speaking events are coming in unsolicited. I’ve had more book and photo sales (thank you Whidbey Island Open Studio Tour, Raven Rocks Gallery, and interior designers). The second bright spot is that the business has reimbursed me for some incidentals. I continue to fill its accounts in anticipation of a larger project for next year, and it looks like it will be able to thrive instead of merely sustain, but it also may be able to start paying me. That’s nice after its thin and tight times.

If the real estate market loosens, as my business fills, with a return to rational stock valuations, my financial life will become less thin and tight. Imagine a financial life that is fat and loose. That sounds relaxed and enjoyable, productive and philanthropic, exuberant and expansive. Dancing will commence – maybe with some sweet little thin and tight moves.

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To Do Have Fun

Posted on October 22, 2011 by Tom Trimbath

Have Fun. Great idea. I’ll get to that right after I get a few other things done. Hey fellow workaholics, does that sound familiar? It is easy to to get too wrapped up in career, taking care of the house, fixing the world, or whatever. Step one is recognizing that balance is required. Step two is deciding to do something about it. Step three is actually balancing. Feel free to skip steps one and two and go straight to three. This week I forgot to get past step two. I had fun, but the balance was tipped far to the work side. Time to load up the other side of the scale.

Friday I was going to take the day off. Thursday night’s talk about my walk across Scotland went better than I expected. It was a packed house at Wander on Whidbey and people seemed to enjoy the show. We’ve even talked about an reprise, and maybe a show about my ride across America. I had a good time, otherwise I wouldn’t do as much public speaking as I do. Getting ready for the event, coordinating on three unrelated video projects, writing a book, editing another, setting up a couple of classes in November, as well as helping out friends, filled a week. I know myself. I knew that much work has to be balanced with hours of down time. See? I can be trained!

Friday morning started wonderfully. It was just my kind of sleep-in day. Rain quieted the neighborhood. Thick clouds delayed dawn and slowly settled into a subdued blanket that encouraged reading and sleeping on the couch for hours. I’ve always thought that such days were the inspiration for Seattle’s literary and coffee cultures. Pardon me as I take a sip of tea while the wind chimes barely strike a tone. This morning is a repeat of yesterday. Nice.

But the couch got very little use. Another opportunity to talk arose. One of the local bookstores sent out a call for speakers to fill a gap in their November schedule. Sign me up! I spent some time picking the topic with the planner, organizing the publicity materials, formatting everything, and sending out the packet. The first time for any new talk can take hours of development. While that packet went out, a message came in that a sales venue was moving and I had to pick up my unsold art by the end of the week instead of the end of the month. In addition to my plan of reading and napping, I had planned to write a bit, and spend time in the kitchen preparing for a couple of social events.

My day filled.

As the sun went down I was done, except for the writing and the photography shoot that required something called sunlight or a really long time on a sturdy tripod. It was time for a dinner with friends. Finally, balance. Nope. I’d loaded one side up too much. Walking up to the door I realized that I had no reserves. My energy would probably come back with dinner, but I knew that wouldn’t be soon because I was carrying the groceries. At least that also meant that I was carrying the wine.

I’d gone too far. One drink, one dinner, one evening probably was enough to counter nearly a week’s work, but adding one more day to the wrong side of the balance meant much more would be required to even things out.

One of the reasons I retired early was that I burned out. I was passionate about my work and concentrated on it from interest and enthusiasm, not from a love of money or a feeling of obligation – well maybe a little of the latter. I am one of those lucky few who got a job doing the work they went to school for. I worked on the technologies that I thought would help us spread into space. I like humans and think we should have more than one place to live, for safety, and for the expansion of our collective soul. Evidently though, I didn’t take enough vacations because my own soul grew tired, which wasn’t a safe thing to do.

A friend has a motto that I’ll paraphrase, “If you want a better world, throw a better party.” (Sorry Rick, I can’t find your web site.) I agree.

Too much work, whether it is for improving society, health, the environment, or even finances, is led by passionate people who devote their lives to their causes. The causes need their efforts. Luckily, sometimes those agents of change have found that balance within their efforts. They love what they do, and it provides them with joy and balance. I’m still working on that one. I feel for those who seem to be spending their life energy without replenishment. A few charities and advocacy groups come to mind that could use new volunteers and board members. The existing ones need some time to recuperate.

So, here’s to the other side of the scale. Here’s to balancing life within life regardless of money. Here’s to friends, time together, maybe with that glass of wine.

But first, I want to finish this blog post, clean up the house a bit, finish one of those writing tasks from yesterday, and get ready for a party tonight. Party = good. Reading and napping on the couch? That’s good too. Maybe I’ll get around to it tomorrow.

Have fun.

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Scotland Memories

Posted on October 19, 2011 by Tom Trimbath

And a year ago I was finishing my walk across Scotland. A year has passed. My stock portfolio has diminished and, counter to habit, I’ve carried those vacation charges on my credit card. The expenses have accrued some double digit interest rate. The benefits have pervaded far more of my life. The benefits outweigh the costs, but I can’t pay the bills with memories – that is unless I tell the story. I’m writing a new book, and the act of writing it is therapeutic, possibly productive, and at least occupational.

I am a fan of travel. (see Travel Perspectives) Travel can be escapist. Travel can be educational. Travel can even be philanthropic. Disaster areas aren’t kidding when they say that they need people to return as aid workers or tourists. There’s work to be done, and they need the influx of cash funneled through jobs. Travel for me is stepping back from the canvas of life that I’m painting every day. Travel for me is also jumping into another rut to better see if I’m in any ruts within my normal life. Bicycling across America and walking across Scotland were long ruts that I appreciated for the experiences and for the perspectives.

At the beginning of August I had a significant financial setback that I hope is only temporary. For more than two months I’ve been applying for jobs, networking, and acting entrepreneurial. To those who say, “Anyone who wants a job can find one.” Hmm. I’ve found plenty of jobs, but so have many other applicants. When the number of unemployed people is greater than the number of jobs, looking and wanting won’t be enough.

In the meantime, I’ve been writing writing samples for applications, online freelance markets, and for various charities. My trip across Scotland taught me to take control and responsibility of my mood and attitude, as long as I avoid wheat and gluten. Two gifts that I gave myself are writing this blog and writing a book, the book about what I learned about myself while walking through a foreign country. Once a day I know that I’ll write to my values, in my style, to express myself in something that can be shared, possibly sold, and expanded upon. I’m probably past the halfway point of the trip, so the first draft of the book is about halfway done.

Hunting for a job is tough in good times. It involves vulnerability, courage, risk, and internal reinforcement. Daring to be something else is, well, daring. Hunting for a job during times of high unemployment, high personal interest rates (oddly happening while the prime rate is near zero), while housing prices drop enough to put mortgages at risk, and while health care costs continue makes for a tougher hunt.

At least once a day I take control. For an hour or so I write the book. Writing is a job that is self-administered and self-controlled, at least as long as you self-publish. (You know I teach classes in, have a book about, and consult regarding self-publishing.) The key though is that for an hour I am working on something productive that can’t be down-sized, foreclosed, or reassigned without my approval. I know I am getting something done.

Writing a book is one method of self-empowerment. Fixing up something to sell, creating something, learning more about a passion, even something as basic and useful as cooking can be positive. One friend decided to start brewing beer. Drinking beer was something he enjoyed, but buying microbrews was too expensive and hanging out in bars was even more wasteful. Instead, he started brewing his own, which was cheaper, made to his taste, kept him busy and even taught him history as he traced recipes back to ancient Egypt that had particular healing qualities. He wasn’t just brewing beer. He was lowering his health care costs. If nothing else it was a good story.

Scotland’s favorite beer seemed to be Ireland’s Guinness, a beer long touted as a a tonic. “Guinness is Good for you.” The posters are more ubiquitous than framed pictures of the Queen.

Scots are stereotyped as stoic, hard-working, hard-drinking, frugal, and resourceful. They live on a land of poets, though I had difficulty finding village bookstores. Give them rocks and they build walls and houses. Give them land that can’t be farmed and they’ll raise sheep. Tell them they have to become Romans or English, and be ready for a fight with whatever’s on hand.

America was founded by immigrants from such places. They continue to flow in. They filled the country. The advantage we had until recently was mobility and opportunity on our internal frontiers. Go west young man. Homestead and raise a farm and a family and life, leaving behind your previous unfortunate circumstance.

Unfortunately, leaving a house behind is harder when it can’t be sold for more than the mortgage within a reasonable time. Credit ratings and electronic histories follow us forever. Homesteading won’t absorb all of the discouraged population, unless we start colonizing space, and NASA’s budget isn’t enough to land a bridge party on the moon. Colonies might only happen by the Chinese or the ultra-wealthy.

My memories of Scotland affect my daily life, partly because of the example set by the Scots, but mostly because of what I learned about myself. I traveled unsupported, and that’s the way our society seems to treat many people now. On my own though, I can set, accomplish, and celebrate goals that fill a life. Paying the costs may be delayed, but that’s basically another definition of an investment: expending resources up front to eventually recover them plus more.

I can do that as an individual. Doing that in collaboration can be more powerful. Communities built that way can be resilient and thrive. A society and civilization that invests itself, which means investing in its members, can find ways to sustain itself for generations.

In the meantime, I’ll finish this blog so I can get back to writing the book – and to get ready for my talk. Thursday night, October 20th, starting at 7PM, Wander on Whidbey is hosting a talk and slideshow that I’ll give about my walk across Scotland. And it’s free. That fact alone can make it a memorable event in these times.

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Incredulous Views

Posted on October 15, 2011 by Tom Trimbath

Incredulous, incredible, not credible, not to be credited or believed, describes the facial expressions I have seen many times in response to my optimism. Pessimism is accepted and expected. People wag their heads and either express sympathy or pass along advice. Then the conversation continues. Optimism frequently is followed by eyes askance, a head tilting away, and silence or a question of doubt. Conversations can halt or frantically jump to another other topic. Change the polarity on a piece of news from bad to good and it changes from believable to incredible. It is a natural tendency that is not tied to logic but can driven by math that makes no judgment.

One of my stocks dropped from $40 to $10. (DNDN – read Triple Whammy for some of the details) People hear that and believe it. It is easy to believe that the story was too good to be true. Cancer vaccines are new. No one knows what to expect. Maybe expectations were too high. A dropped stock price hurts but it’s almost as if folks are more comfortable with the loss after the stock has dropped than the risk of the loss when the stock was high. The surprising part is when I mention that I think the stock was cheap at $40, continue to think the stock would be cheap when it recovers to $40, and continue to think that a proper valuation is more like $120. I rarely mention $120 in public because it is so outside the bounds of expectation. Even the possibility that it can recover its loss, that it can rise from $10 to $40 creates incredulous glances. For me, $40 is one-third of my expectation, and I know others that think $120 is too low; though I suspect that they are even less likely to speak up when the stock is below $10 as it is now.

My basis for reacting to an investment’s swings is based more on the company’s value, not as much on the stock’s price. Company valuations are based on assets, liabilities, income and expenses. Those financial measurements move much more slowly. Dendreon missed earnings by about 20%. The stock dropped70%-80%. In my view, the company’s value was based on 80% of the expected revenue instead of 100% of the expected revenue. They made money – not as much as they expected, but they made money. In effect, the timing of the expected twelve month revenue total was delayed, not cancelled. The timing of the revenue shifts the timing of the value, and ultimately the timing of the stock price. By that logic, the stock should’ve held constant or dropped 20% at most.

A common reaction is to think that a 20% recovery from a 20% drop is a harder task that is less likely and will take more time. But there’s a trick in the numbers that is counter to common perception. A 20% drop is corrected by a 25% rise. A company that cuts 20% of its workforce has to hire 25% back to recover the same total. From 10 to 8 is -20%. From 8 to 10 is +25%. The beauty of math is that it can be made that simple.

Incredulity sets in though with something on the order of an 80% drop. An 80% drop can be countered with a 400% rise. But we are told to never expect more than a few percent return on any investment. Anything above 20% is considered too risky, too good to be true. Math doesn’t make such judgments.

Stocks do not move in synchronicity with their company’s value. They are more like the leaves on a tree in a stiff breeze, blowing back and forth even if the trunk is going nowhere.

Dendreon’s value diminished when only 80% of the revenues were realized. Estimates of new products are never precise, except by chance. Estimates of anything medical is even less certain. Estimates of new products in new technologies using the body to treat itself are going to be difficult. Being off by only 20% is not a surprise to me.

Dendreon’s value estimates tend to ignore expansion into earlier treatments, booster shots, other regions like Europe and Asia, and other treatments for bladder and other cancers. Ignoring each of those expansions is effectively a conservatism instituted into the valuation and subsequently the stock price.

I wouldn’t be concerned if I could hold the stock. I’d be interested in buying more. Personally though I have bills to pay and my other revenue streams are in their early growth phases. and therefore unable to fund my lifestyle – yet. I’ve been selling DNDN to pay my bills and may have to do so soon again. The near term drop directly affects my lifestyle, but it all may recover nicely.

Within the last two years DNDN has been over $50. Within the last week it has been below $8. When DNDN was at $50 there was much more uncertainty about the treatment’s safety and efficacy. They have both improved. The company’s cash position (2Q11) is over $600,000,000. Physician awareness, treatment infrastructure, process flow are all much better now than then. The value of the company now should be closer to what it was then. From what I’ve seen, that value should increase as the treatment spreads and expands, and has the potential to rise to three or four times the value it had at a $50 share price. The company valuation may sound reasonable, but if I say that I think the stock can rise 400%, 500% or 1,000% the same story can sound incredible even though the math is equivalent.

I use DNDN as an example. Other companies have had their stocks dramatically disconnected from the company value. It is always happening somewhere in the market. Mistakes are made. Some investors take advantage of the mistakes and make money. Of course, sometimes the drop in valuation is appropriate and subsequent purchases show up as silly in retrospect.

There are many such mathematical holes we’ve fallen into. Unemployment, GDP growth, bankruptcies, underwater mortgages, all sound like dismal numbers from which we can’t recover. Maybe that’s right because there are no guarantees, but fundamental values persist. People are working. Bills are being paid. Houses are being built and lived in. Businesses are being started. The prices of somethings, the metrics used for other things, can make it sound as if we can never recover. But I’m an optimist and my view is that the good news will come – even if it seems incredible.

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Just Start

Posted on October 12, 2011 by Tom Trimbath

Think. Consider. Ponder. Plan. But remember to get started. “The journey of a thousand leagues begins with one step.” Without that first step the journey may never happen, and after that first step the new view may change the goal. And that’s good. In the words of Dirk Gently, from Douglas Adams’ book, Long Dark Tea Time of the Soul, “I may not have gone where I intended to go, but I think I have ended up where I needed to be.” I applaud those who are just starting.

I watch trends. I’m not interested in the fashion of the day. I’m interested in the next big thing, in many arenas. It’s fun to sit and think about the possibilities, rummage around with my brain in sci-fi mode, and play what-if a lot. But for me, a trend is something where someone, and hopefully many people, are taking first steps. Action has occurred. Someone has stepped past the academic.

Until recently there’s been a lot of talk but very little action regarding wealth inequities in America. For the last decade or so the action has been for lower taxes and lower services. Conversations to the contrary only became legislation through great effort and with seemingly less effectiveness. Individuals on both sides were active and many had taken first steps, but there was a preponderance of appealing to common cause and compassion that was ineffective at maintaining social safety nets. The Occupy movement was begun because too many people have fallen through the nets while watching others supported by structures formed from stimulus and buyouts. Within one month a small crowd showing up in New York City that was ignored by the press has turned into a trend that has spread to 70 cities that can’t be ignored. Sometime back there one person mentioned the idea to another person and the first step was taken.

Taking a step is not a guarantee of completing a journey. But not taking that step makes that completion highly unlikely. I won’t use absolutes because limos can appear, helicopters can swoop in, the Earth can move to make things happen. Some folks get lucky that way. (Let me check my lottery ticket.)

The other day, a frugal friend called for advice (I don’t give advice! But I do like to ask lots of pertinent questions. Call me.) about how to get twentysomethings interested in their personal finance. How do we get them to take that first step? It is easy and true that all they have to do is take a first step, but that’s only obvious in retrospect. Retrospection is only available to people who have gone far enough to be able to see that they’ve gone somewhere. For many, personal finance isn’t even part of a theoretical or academic conversation. Make and spend and tidy it up just enough once a year to fill out the taxes is typical of most personal finance plans. It probably isn’t sustainable, but ignorance can be bliss, at least for a while. Why would they leave bliss?

A friend wrote a book called Tactics of Hope. Pardon me Wilford as I massively paraphrase and possibly misstate one of your messages, but what I got from our conversations was that amidst the cry for the need for change there must be hope.

A twentysomething decades from retirement and enjoying a life without commitment probably won’t listen to lectures about compound interest, protections against inflation, and the long term downside of fast food. They might be ready to hear about goals that are enticing, whether that’s travel, philanthropy, artistic pursuits, or better parties. (Check the stories on New Road Map Foundation’s page or over at Simple Living Forum.) With a goal in mind, then they may be interested in finding where to make that first step. To me, that first step is more important than the goal because that first step changes the view which changes the next step which changes the view repeatedly until the journey is done. The final goal may never have been visible from the initial stand.

People change when they want to change. Arguing for them to change is more likely to create resentment than sustainable results. Enticing them to change can be much more fun, can spread, pervade, and reinforce itself.

For a while our government has been spending as if it was absorbed in the opposite of a party mentality that can be as equally entrapping. Trillions of dollars and tens or hundreds of thousands of lives have been spent in response to an attack that cost billions of dollars and thousands of lives. Hundreds of billions were spent to protect institutions that failed hundreds of millions of people. Actions have been out of proportion.

The Occupy movement seems to have taken a step back from that extreme mentality. Despite a few misdemeanors, the majority of the protestors seem to be in more of a collaborative and festival mode. I’ve seen more art than angst. There are more creative solutions being considered than angry acts. (Let’s hope it stays that way.) The early participants were derided for not having a clear message. I cheer them for taking a first step. The messages are multiplying, but that’s because there are many issues that have been ignored during ten years of the Dismal Decade. As another friend put it, this is the Decisive Decade. There’s a lot of work to do. It’s true that we can’t continue fighting, consuming, and ignoring and that we should hit the brakes on a lot of what we’re doing; but, I am more encouraged by the tendency for people to mention what we may gain: a more just society, sustainable institutions, compassionate governance, and a healthier world.

We the people have taken the first step. We the people are the nation. I’m looking forward to what just started.

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Whidbey Island Open Studio Tour 2011 Sunday

Posted on October 9, 2011 by Tom Trimbath

Another day on the Tour. One day doesn’t stand alone. Visitors for a two day event might drop by again to buy after comparison shopping. See yesterday’s post for day one.

7AM
At least I slept better, ah but one of the first thoughts was to place one sign at a key intersection. I drove around last night and saw one place where Tour-ists might get confused. Must make yet another sign.

But first, don’t forget the basics. Time for a run. Sitting around yesterday left me with wicked leg cramps. I’m going to move more today.

8AM
Sign shifted. I started with four. I’m using six. I think I need one or two more. The signs work better than online navigators in this neighborhood. One web site direction finder drives people across a bridge that no longer exists. Signs are good.

Wondering if one of the artists from yesterday will drop off a stack of brochures for the Art Trail. A stack of brochures for the Open Studio Tour while on the Tour may not as be as effective as cross-promotions. Hmm.

9AM
Lesson learned. Don’t put out the sign on the street and make sure I lock the doors so I can take a shower without worrying about someone walking in early.

Shower completed. Put clothes on then unlock the front door – a critical sequence that shouldn’t be reversed.

Time to put out the sign. I wonder if the neighbors know that the tour is free? There’s nothing on the sign to suggest it, and they may not read the local paper, especially the weekenders and the ones who only read The New York Times.

Ah, those leg cramps just happen to be where my thigh runs out of kitchen stool support. Sitting to the side as people look at my photos is more sedentary and less ergonomic than usual for me. Coincidence? I don’t think so. My body rebelled.

I just clipped a brochure to the sign with “Free Admission” Sharpied to the front cover. I’ll see if anyone notices.

No early birds. The last time I did this Sunday was quieter than Saturday. Stay tuned.

10AM
Clouds thickening. Yesterday had sunshine in the afternoon and clear air out to the Olympics for a great view of fresh snow on the mountains. There’s a 20% chance of rain, and sprinkles are already on the radar.

Switch the music from torch songs and crooners to acoustic instrumentals.

4
Neighbors and their friends walked up this morning because they didn’t get here in time last night. Two satins sold, but I don’t take credit cards so they’ll just mail me the check. They travel the tours. Sounds like the Camano Studio Tour is a good one too.

2 very enthusiastic patrons who may be back.

11AM
2 dancers
3 a trio
2 more
2 with more stories about how to bicycle across the continent – at 70.
sold one copy of Twelve Months at Cultus Bay

Sitting and leg cramps have been moot. It’s almost noon and this is the first time in over an hour with no one here but me. Food. Must eat. Fluids haven’t been an issue. A mug of tea is a handy prop. Hmm, a dollop of logic suggests that if tea has gone in, something must go out. Quick, and hope no one drops by for a few minutes.

Noon
2 neighbors visit while I eat a brownie for dessert, again.
tres francois?
4 from Vancouver (including one precocious child who found a ski pole and tried using the picture window as a drum), love the twelve month concept, intrigued with the satins for their own project.

1 getting away from the garden. She’s a photographer too, but won’t pursue it until she’s retired. In the meantime she’s living a frugal lifestyle. I’m a fan of that (so says the Board Secretary of The New Road Map Foundation which advocates for personal financial literacy and independence.)

1PM
Quick catch up on phone calls during a lull.
Oo. Blue sky. Come on blue.
Thirty minutes without a visitor had me wondering. How easily that sets in.

2 mainlanders who want to move here, soI pitched them the idea of buying here now.
3 = 2 tourists with one local guide.
1 solo visitor who is in a odd mood because a golfing companion collapsed on the course earlier in the day. Reality happens. She took a card and will check out the online galleries.

2PM
Another break. I actually closed my eyes while sitting in a regular chair. Ah. And got in a bathroom break. Frequent hand washing has been the norm considering the season and how many hands I shake.
Wow, the break has gone on long enough that my writer’s brain has kicked back in.
Motivations and expectations vary widely. People are unique – and as I type a car drives up. Hmm, interesting cause and effect?

2 (Mom comes back with her daughter.)
Sold one copy of Twelve Months at Merritt Lake
3 from out of town (2 from the eastside, one from the east coast)

And poof, a half hour blows by.

3PM
They drove by, slowed down, and kept going. Possibly the consequence of only having yellow cardboard out front instead of the conventional plastic sign.
Ah, yes, motivations and such. I won’t list them. They are too varied and some can only exist with discretion. There are many shy people out there. Some stop here. Some of them find themselves opening up to a stranger. Maybe it’s me. Maybe it’s the art. Maybe it’s the anonymity. Maybe it’s a combination.
It is easy to fall into thinking that art is bought for decoration or gifts. Refined tastes and speculations may result in purchases for more esoteric or mercenary reasons, but “Oh, that’s pretty.” is a more common comment. The majority don’t buy art at every stop. It is unrealistic to expect otherwise. So, the majority of visits are viewings more akin to museums than malls.
An enthusiast entrains a friend. A parent attempts to inspire an adolescent. A spouse supports a spouse. Individuals turn introspective. My passions are people and ideas. Of course I enjoy being on the Tour.
The clouds are passing east over the house. The sun is warming the deck. The sky is clear from my house to the other side of the Sound. Translucent satins look best with sunlight behind them. The remaining hour and a half is their best time to show off before the Tour officially ends. I’m the most southern stop. Maybe there will be a rush at the end, but considering that I’ve been typing for half an hour, well, stampedes can happen.

Idea for next time, vertically folded, pocket-sized tent cards that can hold more details than a business card, almost as much as a postcard, yet are folded to fit in a wallet.

1 dancer friend drops by one minute before 4PM almost as if to make sure that every hour had a visitor.

4PM
3 A trio of truants quickly abandoned their posts to sweep in and visit. Thanks folks.

2 neighbors were headed this way and I playfully cajoled them in. It was spontaneous and casual, and they went away thinking about one piece in particular, maybe a custom order. Cool. Free admission is worth it.

Fifteen minutes to go. 37 people so far. More signs, better weather, fewer people. It must be a Sunday thing.

My art, the exhibit, cleaning the house and the yard, publicizing the event all were a prolonged engaged effort that went up to a deadline. It can come down much more slowly. The signs will come down tonight or tomorrow. The display panels will be moved aside to reclaim a comfort zone within the living room. I might delay refilling the office and storage space because this is the clearest it has been and the best opportunity to clean and organize with elbowroom.

At this point I’ve cleared the entry cost and made enough to refill fill the business’s cash reserves, but not enough to pay the mortgage. Eight minutes left. Good and great things can happen. I’ve also possibly lined up four more students and four custom orders. I’ll check with the printers and the web traffic this week.

Ah, a car drives up. It’s a gorgeous day. Come on in. The prints look fine, and hey, they’re fine art.

2 who didn’t know about the Tour. They stumbled into it and spent the day exploring the island in a much more interesting fashion than they’d expected. It’s now 5PM. I’m not closing the door.

5PM
2 from BC. Another car drives by, slows, and continues. It’s after 5PM. Maybe they’re tired. Come on back folks.

49 on Saturday. 41 on Sunday. 90 people total. Being gregarious on occasion has its uses and advantages.

There’s more to say, but I’m tired. Surprised? Thanks for dropping by.

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Whidbey Island Open Studio Tour 2011 Saturday

Posted on October 8, 2011 by Tom Trimbath

Welcome to a day in the life of an artist. For one weekend a year, I join in with a few dozen other artists on the Whidbey Island Open Studio Tour, an event where people can visit artists in their homes and studios, meet the artists, see the art, and learn more about the process than they might in a gallery or at a fair. They also can buy the art directly from the artist. (Special offers, this weekend only!)

I’ve spent days organizing my art, cleaning up the house and the yard, arranging display panels, and producing lots of publicity (as one dance partner pointed out to me the other night). Today and tomorrow are the days when I sit at home working through the results of my efforts. If it’s as busy as last time, I won’t have time to write a regular post. Instead I’ll share a chronology of the day.

7AM
Wakey, wakey. Time to get up and finish the little details.

Step one – hop in the car and hammer signs into the ground at key intersections.

8AM
Listen to Car Talk during breakfast to listen to something completely different.

Shower, and while in there, realize that the front door is unlocked, the cash box is on the table, my wallet and checkbooks are on the living room shelves, and there are signs pointing to my house. I hope the early birds aren’t too early.

9AM
Baking brownies, partly for the smell of chocolate, partly as snacks for me. Yeah, I know real estate agents do it for enticing buyers. I’m doing this for my self. Baking is an accomplishment. And if it happens to encourage enthusiasm and sales, cool. Gluten-free of course. Mood swings from conventional baking detract.

Gotta put up another sign. Wish I had more time to put up more. I’m six miles off the highway and only have four signs. I’ll fake up another one from a tri-fold cardboard science display.

10AM
It’s the official opening time and I’m number one on the map, and no one is knocking on my door. Oh my. Patience lad. Time to catch up on Steve’s blog and Mike’s video.

Reading a business consultant’s blog (hire him) and watching a portfolio manager’s market analysis (hire him too) puts an artist’s business in interesting perspective.

3 friends – starting off with two dancers, who gave a good report of last night’s dance that I missed because I was getting ready for today.

11AM
Lack of signage. A friendly artist dropped by and pointed out that I should put up more signs. Sounds like a good idea. Anyone care to run around and print some, stick them on a post and mark up a few intersections? Ah, the life of an solo artist.

1 friend – nice way to start the day.

Susan drops off a sign. Excellent. Artists helping artists.

1 – one solo traveler
2 – one couple
strangers in my house

Phone call from a friend who is also watching people walk by art without buying. So it goes.

A car drives by without stopping. Alas.

7 (3 friends)
There’s a multitude in my small living room! Nice energy and chatter.

noon
2 friends – dancers who are wondering if I’ll make it to the dance tonight. Let’s see how much energy I have.

One possible student for a self-publishing class.
One possible custom order (from my first series).
Lots of folks are interested in who does my printing (Fine Balance Imaging), and who prints the photo books (blurb.com).

3 tourists from Houston, who are aware of the new Houston Zoo exhibits (which were created with the help of an excellent watercolorist from Whidbey.)

It is amazing that people coming by in ones and twos can fill an hour to the point that writing only happens in phrases.

3 more

Possible student for Modern Self-Publishing in Coupeville.

1PM
1 interested in what it’s like to live in this neighborhood.
2 neighbors who wanted to say hi.

Lunch has been a series of hand grabs of bits of chicken (bit on a bone), slices of cheese, and a carrot. Time for dessert? Not yet. The chocolate covered macaroons will wait. Hey, I just remembered the brownies!

1 friend with a friend and chit chat
1 solo swings through

2PM
2 more friends
2 more which makes a conversation begin.

More discussion about custom orders.

Glad I’m not trying to write through this.
Glad I made brownies.
Someone described me as a painter. Huh? Oh yeah, the deck. Should I add painter to my resume?
How long have I been photographing?

2
2
2
2
1 friend
The Count on Sesame Street would be exclaiming nine, nine, nine people in the room!

3PM
The sign blows down, again and again.
Quick. Nobody’s here. Use the bathroom now!

5 walk in. Good thing I was quick.
possible class attendees (2)

2
1
1 friend
Catching up on years of missed conversations before swooping back out again.

4PM
Sale!

48 so far. The storm expected for this afternoon decided upon sunshine instead with gusts that blew signs and threatened to close my open front door. A strap holds it back. The winds bring in the clouds and with a half hour to go the sky is various shades of grey with a bright patch of cloud for a sun. I’ll drive around tonight to see if the signs stayed up.

It’s late enough in the day to decide to close the door and unwind, but the last minute folks can be the very ones that dropped by earlier, saw a lot, and then pass back through buying the best of the day. The same logic applies for Sunday, the folks that didn’t buy on Saturday may be back on Sunday. It’s optimist’s logic. And sometimes it is right.

And here we go with another car pulling up. Optimism.

Make that 49.

Few sales but I’ve gone through a lot of business cards, each one an unlimited opportunity.

It’s almost closing time, time to step into a transition between dozens of concise conversations sprinkled with compliments and into an evening doing something completely different. Dance? Maybe. And maybe not. Post to the blog. Close the door. Take a nap. Figure out the post 6PM plan after I wake up.

5PM
Hey, a return guest. Ah, a fellow artist wondering how it went. He too had lots of interest but even less to deposit in the bank.

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Real World Trade GAIA

Posted on October 5, 2011 by Tom Trimbath

Forget the philosophizing for a while. This blog is about how I handle my personal finances. That takes so little of my time that rarely do I have anything definitive to post. I said goodbye to a stock last month. It was a ride with highs that ended in lows. Oh how sad to see it end this way.

Yes, this blog is about my personal finance. I’m not an accredited investor anymore, or a certified financial planner or advisor; so, by my understanding of SEC rules I can only talk about myself. Talking about myself is a stretch for me because I’d rather listen unless I’ve been asked to speak in front of a group. My style of personal finance is to spend less time thinking about money and more time living. The last three years have not been conducive to ignoring personal, my business, corporate, or global finances. At least it hasn’t been boring.

It has also been a tough time to be invested in the stock market. Personally, my portfolio has had very high highs that could still be exceeded, and unrealistic and unreasonable lows that I imagined but never expected.

Last month I sold the last of my shares in Gaiam (GAIA), a healthy lifestyle and media company that I bought shares in four years ago. They sell products that help people live healthier lives, and sell products that help people lessen their impact on the planet. Everything from solar power converters to yoga mats are in their catalog, online, or at their subsidiary Real Goods Solar (RSOL) which I also bought stock in. I thought that they were nicely positioned to be a leader as people became more frugal and more conscious about new and better ways to live. As long as they didn’t get bought out they had a lot of promise. Economic hardships and ecological impacts could both actually lead to a broader reach, and even allow the company to challenge conventional consumer options. At least so far it hasn’t worked out that way.

My style of investing is called Long Term Buy and Hold (LTBH), which some investors measure in months but I measure in years. I owned GAIA for four years, which is about average for me. LTBH takes less effort than day trading and can be more sedate in more stable markets. The markets haven’t been stable. In that time GAIA went from about $13 to about $30 and dropped to about $3. I sold some on the way up. I sold the rest on the way down. In the end it came out about even, probably with a small loss. I’ll work the numbers later when I estimate taxes.

I sold because I had to. The main components of my portfolio were slammed in a triple whammy, with the worst of it coinciding with the general collapse at the beginning of August. Bills don’t wait though, and eventually they chewed through my cash. The mortgage must be paid. (Hey, this is the first house I can really call my home.) None of the stocks in my portfolio have market caps that approximate my valuations. An unreasonable market does not listen to reason or rational analyses. I had to pick something to sell. Rational valuations weren’t appropriate so I went to my next criterion: the company’s future. Again, I like everything I have. That’s good news. But I needed to find something to sell. Ah, but which company would be least likely to succeed?

There is no way to know for sure if a company will succeed or fail, but I was least impressed with Gaiam’s strategy. Instead of emphasizing alternative energies, lower-impact products, healthier products for the home and such, they seemed to be emphasizing DVD sales in an age of streaming media. Maybe they had a grander plan, but I couldn’t find it even after I called Investor Relations. I lost my confidence in the company’s future, but not in the need for their products.

The stock looks undervalued. Price to sales is less than 0.3 where I think a number over 1.0 is more appropriate for innovative retail. Price to book is less than 0.5, which means that the company’s net worth is twice the market cap instead of the other way around. This is not the kind of stock I’d want to sell. Those numbers would encourage me to consider buying. Unfortunately, many stocks are in the same situation. The market is not acting rationally. It is scared and hiding under a blanket.

My shares of GAIA were enough to cover one mortgage payment and one health insurance premium. My frugal lifestyle is enough to help me wait out the market’s panic attack. My best tactical tools are a bit of time,  some active promotion of my art and services, some job applications, and maybe a windfall (Hello lottery!) in some combination with my patience and perseverance.

I prefer to live my life with only side excursions into financial considerations. I’ve always followed stocks because they are fascinating stories that exceed the drama and impact of any movie or television show. The last three years though have been exceptional. This is not the norm. I look forward to getting past the soap operas, crime thrillers, and intense dramas and getting back to romantic comedy, light documentary, and some tasteful art programming – basically continuing my version of a lifestyle that’s healthier for me, my community, and my planet. There’s probably a demand for supplying people interested in such a lifestyle. I wonder if any company is going to step up to the task.

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Invest In Self

Posted on October 1, 2011 by Tom Trimbath

A friend dropped by for dinner. Yes, even in hard economic times it is possible to have a social life. Friends plus food plus wine plus time equal an evening better than any Hollywood production. And, even in hard economic times, good news happens. She sold her house and was wondering about how to invest the money. Time to step in with the familiar disclaimer, “I am not a certified financial planner, nor a certified financial advisor.” She knows that. She also knows that I don’t like to give advice about anything else either, but I do like to ask lots of questions. I am a curious guy. What would she do with the money?

Amidst dire economic news it is hard to remember that people have jobs, despite unemployment; companies are making money, despite depressed stock markets; and houses continue to sell, despite underwater properties and a seemingly fatally flawed mortgage industry. The job section in the local paper is taking more space than it has in months, maybe even a couple of years. The revenues of one of the major stock market indices, the S&P 500, is on track for 17% growth this year. I’ve even seen real estate agencies hiring more realtors. I’m considering jumping into that job market, but then, I’m considering many job markets because, despite the good news, my stocks are down and I want to keep my house.

She was lucky though. Of course, her luck stems from good living, and an open-minded approach to defining her lifestyle. She’s managed that amazing balance of having fun and being careful with her money. The windfall of selling her house was a new experience. That’s what happens with a windfall. Even if it is expected, the reactions it creates can be completely new and novel. From what I could tell, this was the first time she could invest years worth of living expenses.

Ah, and she’s a smart one. She’d already visited a professional. And she came away from it with a thoughtful brow and many more questions. Professionals exist because financial advice should be taken seriously, its regulated, the list of possibilities is overwhelming, and people have better ways to spend their time. I’m a fan of financial literacy, independence, and integrity, (hence my work for New Road Map Foundation) and while I think most people can find a way to handle their money, frequently it is best to have someone else step in, that’s when I’m a fan of the pros. But my friend didn’t feel as energized as she thought she should.

We started playing around with what she’d been told and what she wanted to do. She’s a sole-proprietor/businesswoman/entrepreneur who helps other people figure out to live other aspects of their lives, and she’s very good at it. She’s known world-wide. Nicely done. One book that strongly influenced me was The Millionaire Next Door, not for any fascination with wealth, but for the insights and data they referenced. I no longer have my copy, but I recalled that many of the millionaires were independent business owners, people who invested their time and money in themselves by investing in their businesses. They took what they knew and built upon that. Businesses aren’t guaranteed of success. No investment is guaranteed of success. But they were able to work from a comfort zone and get to the potential for great comfort.

Money doesn’t mean happiness either, but happiness does correlate well with being able to pay for the necessities and a few luxuries. The correlation falls apart when luxuries are piled on luxuries. More is not always the answer, but having enough is powerful.

She realized that she had enough for years of living expenses, for her current lifestyle. She also lit up when she talked about her business. I mentioned that and asked how much it would take to expand her business to make it more fun, profitable, and sustainable. After she’d run through a long list of improvements and included some that I asked about, she’d come up with a total that was less than 5% of her windfall. Her business doesn’t require expensive facilities. A bit of coaching, some extra training, some exploratory trips to expand her markets, definitely a new computer and maybe a new web site, and she’d have a re-energized business that would match the energy in her smile.

She was smiling. Investing doesn’t have to be done with furrowed brows. I invest in small companies, and regular readers know how high and low that experience can extend. Can you remember back to the up days? Stock markets don’t go on forever in either direction. It merely feels that way. Oy, does it feel that way. Anyway, of all the investments she’d talked about, investing in herself brought the biggest smile.

A person investing in themself has an advantage that they can never match when trying to invest in someone else’s company. Knowing thyself is hard enough. Knowing the mind of management and the market is definitely harder. A person investing in themself can also fall into a trap of being too close to the business. Good and bad things can be overlooked. Expansion opportunities may be just past the horizon. Extrapolations from positive possibilities can create an exuberance that ignores dangers and cautions that are within arm’s reach but out of sight. Others might have a better vantage point. Investing in self is powerful, but doing it amongst others is a very good idea.

I’ve invested in myself like many people: education, counseling, exercise, self-care, and starting my own business (Trimbath Creative Enterprises). Much of the early work produced my Boeing career. I actually got to use my degree, and even the specialty that I studied for my Masters. The work I’ve done since leaving Boeing in 1998 is coming to fruition. My writing, photography, and speaking are not only keeping me busy, but paying their own bills and soon may pay mine too. (Whidbey Island Open Studio Tour – October 8th & 9th) (Modern Self-Publishing October 15th, which is also now a book) (busy, busy).

Investing isn’t just spending money to make money. That’s why I listed counseling, exercise, and self-care. Clearing clutter from a life, untangling internal knots, and exercising all aspects of what we’re given can make easier to appreciate the value that already exists in every moment.

I don’t know if she’ll follow through with her plans. Even if she does, the great majority of that windfall could still follow the professional advice she paid for; but in the meantime, the more valuable part may be the joy she finds by investing in herself. Her business probably will do well too. Very cool.

 

PS She called and told me she’ll probably buy one of my photos too. Happy dance.

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