Medicate And Wait

I’m going to challenge myself tonight. I’m going to attempt eating a pork chop. About two weeks ago a tooth started to ache. Toothaches come and go, but this one stayed. In about a half an hour, while I’m typing, my alarm should go off to take my antibiotics. I’ve never had to take antibiotics for a toothache, but then, I’ve never had a tooth ache this much. It is amazing how one little nerve with a bad message can overwhelm the billions of other nerves that say everything else is fine. The same might be said of the situation that may have kicked off the episode.

Usually, I try to include at least one photo or graphic in my posts. I suspect you’ll pardon my departure from the practice in this instance. There isn’t much to see. The tooth looks normal at a glance, but about ten years ago a previous dentist showed me a microscopic photo of a hairline crack in one of my molars. Some bit of popcorn or a nut provided the opportunity for me to crack a tooth. Since then, it’s been sensitive but manageable. That’s what happens as the decades accumulate, we learn ways to accommodate our imperfections.

The tooth would hurt, but only occasionally. There was actually a benefit. The tooth became a stress indicator. Under normal daily stress, there was very little if any pain because the crack was so small. When the stress built, I’d clench my teeth, which possibly pressed on the nerve, and my tooth would ache. Ironically, when I was most relaxed, my jaw would relax, and it seemed to allow the tooth to open a minute amount sufficient to let hot or cold food and drink to trigger the ache. I can’t prove that was the cause, but the correlation seemed reliable.

So, when the ache arrived again I decided to let it slide and abate as usual. This time wasn’t usual. A few days into the episode, I started applying folk remedies, like homemade clove tinctures. That almost worked. By then, however, it was the weekend and too late to check for an appointment. So, I ramped up the at home medication with over the counter solutions like clove oil and then OraGel. They started to make a difference, but the pain spread. By a week into the event the toothache was joined by an ear ache and a head ache. My head felt tight. The last time my head felt that tight it affected my eyesight until a massage therapist massaged away the pain. My muscles were so tight that they restricted the blood flow to my eyes. A twenty minute session was enough to show me the benefit. I was familiar with the possible cause and effect, but this was worse.

Another end of the week approached and it seemed that the symptoms would diminish. For a day or two, it did. In a sudden reversal, the pain grew until I had to work in 45 minute sprints, then stand until getting vertical rearranged the way my blood flowed. That night felt like a another breakthrough, though; so, I held off scheduling a dentist appointment. Over the weekend, it all escalated. Sunday night I left a message with the dentist asking for a semi-emergency appointment. Monday morning I drove straight to the office as they opened, hoping for a cancellation. They could see me in a day. Cue the ibuprofen. Get to work. And be greatly relieved there was a cancellation that morning that only meant curtailing one client meeting by about fifteen minutes.

The dentist will see you now, and he did. He alleviated my worst fears (which I won’t go into, but were rather extreme because too many friends provide advice via horror stories that are incredibly low probability, evidently.) He confirmed my financial fears. the reason I didn’t get the tooth taken care of ten years ago was because a crown would cost over $2,000. $2,000 for a microscopic crack seemed disproportionate then, and it did now. Add in inflation, and make that at least $2,500. But now, the crown would be coupled with a root canal, a root canal with no assurance that they’d find all of the affected material. It would be possible to spend thousands of dollars without resolving the issue, and then have to spend more to extract the tooth. The good news was that extracting the tooth could be done for about a tenth the cost of the crown and root canal. The bad news was that my mouth, teeth, gums, and jaws are so healthy that extracting that molar would be painful for me and difficult for him.

An axiom in karate is, “Do not move until it is to your advantage to do so.” All of the options involved pain. There was one option, however, that could involve the least pain and possibly the least expense. Leave the tooth in place, wait, and medicate in the interim to fight pain and possible infections. Hence, the ibuprofen and antibiotics, (and it just happens to be the time to take my medication, so pardon me as I step away to pop a pill.)

By the way, it is more than popping a pill. I am not required to eat something at the same time, but it helps. So, my apologies to my naturopath as I have a snack before dinner.

For the last several days, most of my diet has been mush food. A few days of the antibiotics, a few doses of ibuprofen, reassuring (yet cautionary) words from my dentist, and perhaps my body’s natural healing abilities mean the pain has mostly subsided. I’m willing to try eating something that involves a knife and a fork.

I think back two weeks to when the pain started and can’t recall anything I ate that could act as a trigger. It wasn’t until yesterday that I made a connection. Two weeks ago there was an event that caused me to clench my teeth, carry too much stress, and make me worry about my ability to keep my house and stay in my community. I paid my taxes. I paid more in taxes by percent and by dollar amount than I had in years, despite only making 1% more than the year before. Personal finances are personal. Numbers are objective and arguably abstract; but our economy and society rely on currency and numbers. Sudden bills are a threat to anyone without sufficient resources; but they create a threat that isn’t addressed by flight or fight. We are left with the options of grin, grit, or grind and move on.

There are real pains associated with being poor, or at least poor enough to not be able to pay for all of the necessities. Thanks to rising home prices, instead of 40% of Americans having negative net worth, there’s only 20%. I’m one of the lucky ones who has moved up. I make about half the median income, which puts me in the bottom 50%; but doing better than the 43 million who live in poverty. I am amazed at the millions whose situation are dire, and am not surprised that their health can be poor, their health care costs high, and see them falling into a trap.

I’m fortunate enough that my business is doing much better this year by some measures, and that my move into real estate is looking encouraging thanks to supportive friends, brokers, and serendipity. (Thanks to co-listing, I’m now involved in three listings and maybe a sale or two: Dunlap Drive, Otter Way, and Timber Lane.)

Encouragement comes as non-real estate clients advance their projects, buyers visit listings, my portfolio possibly recovers, and a variety of endeavours proceed. Those activities are in a race with my medications, my body’s natural healing efforts, and a wide set of influences in this bizarre world we live in. Stay tuned to see who wins and how. In the meantime, I’ll wait and medicate – and very carefully practice using a knife and fork, again.

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Growing Up American Or America Growing Up

America is growing up, or at least growing older. Sometimes the world works in ways that lets one job work for two. This blog is about personal finance, frugality, and community. (Based on my book; Dream. Invest. Live.) Thanks to it, I also get paid to write for other blogs. Occasionally, a topic is appropriate for my client and me. 360 Modern is a real estate brokerage with a blog that I contribute to about once or twice a month. We were both interested in the generational changes happening in America. They focus on the impact on real estate. For this blog, I recognized impacts on the way people spend, save, live, and live with each other. 360 Modern was kind enough to let me repost an excerpt and a link to the main article.

“America is growing up and getting older. That isn’t news. Everyone is getting older. Growing up, well, that’s a separate issue for some. America’s demographics are shifting in ways that are creating new trends and revisiting old ones. It is fascinating to explore, the way things change and the way they stay the same throughout generations and across demographics. This week we examined America’s “generations” – what defines them, as well as the particular generations most affecting and predicted to most heavily impact the home buying process in the future.”

– excerpted from Growing Up American: Shifts and Constants in American Demographics

(And, of course, you are welcome to browse the other posts to read what they’re interested and other things I write about. Enjoy.)

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A Day Off For Taxes

Surprise! I made about $1,000 more in 2017 than in 2016 – and paid about 15% more in income tax. So much for relaxing on the surprise of a day off. My common refrain: “Next year will be better. Right?”

A welcome surprise. The day’s meetings were cancelled or postponed with a day’s notice. Take a hint from the universe and take a day off for the first time in about a month. Ah. But, responsibility rules. Pay those taxes. But check emails. Done. And do again later because clients and real estate deserve attention too. First great hurdle of the day, making sure my plastic plumbing fix fixes a problem I caused with my sink that hopefully didn’t affect my dishwasher. Grease. Ugh. Listening for it to drain without spilling and maybe not even dripping is distracting; so, don’t get too deep into the taxes until the dishwasher is done. Success! Imagine that.

Okay, back to work.

Gather up the folder of Taxes 2017 and realize how little is in it. Ah ha! There are two folders. I didn’t realize I was doubly organized. Start opening envelopes labeled “IMPORTANT TAX RETURN DOCUMENTS ENCLOSED’. One of the consequences of the Gig Economy is lots of envelopes with paperwork enumerating significant sums, but sums that don’t sum to enough to cover all of the bills. It’s like Christmas Day with lots of socks and underwear. And then realize (a lot of realizing going on here) that some of the documents are electronic and easy to overlook – and hard to look at if I forget the username and password for an account I only use once a year.

By the way, thanks for coming along for the ride. Weirdly enough, it is comforting to write this down as if someone will read it.

But first, find the notes for the old password and immediately make up a new one that fits the new rules without repeating an old password – for an account I evidently access twice a year.

Okay. Papers compiled. Take a break before plunging into TurboTax where I’ll find myself scrambling for other ones, though hopefully not.

Enough of the distractions of lunch and a bout of Civilization (the game, not reality). To TurboTax I go, possibly via my bank’s offer; so, I’ll log in there first. Log out because it looks like it is the Free option, which usually isn’t the version I need for a home business. Ah, but that is a impulsive reaction. Log back in and double check. Click on the link and it takes me out to TurboTax. Start for Free versus Sign In. What’s the difference? No clue. Hit Free for the fun of it.

Ah, Start for Free – and then pay $104.99 after the bank’s $15 discount. Here we go – after I run out to the mail box. Ironically, the only piece of mail was from Quicken, part of the same company that operates TurboTax (unless some merger or spinoff changed things, again.)

Another once-a-year username and password. Right on the second guess.

My Info
New format. New training session. Less confidence as a result. This is a time for the familiar not the eternally shifting.

Another sales pitch that I decline. I don’t want MAXX.

Federal Info

Interrupted by a confirmation email from TurboTax.

It is heart-wrenching to watch the Federal Balance Due climb with every entry. Nah. Let me get this right. It is gut-clenching. Breathe, Tom, breathe.

7 1099s, and that’s only from my clients who reported paying me more than $600 in 2017. Oops. Some set me 1099s even for amounts under $50. Ah, useless paperwork that must be respected and reported.

Now I see the Hide button for the Federal Balance Due. Maybe the worst is over and it will only go down from here. I’ll leave it up.

Oops. Missed a category, all of those non-1099 gigs. Prepare for a higher tax bill.

Shuffling entries because each sounds like another.

Add in my pension and Boing!!! goes the taxes.

Yet another ad, and another.

Opps. Forgot a stock trade I was forced to take by a takeover. Now I must go into yet another web site. It automatically adds a bunch of forms with zeroes. Not productive, but possibly necessary. It also means going through the ads again.

Grr. Can’t find the mortgage company form.

Go online. Set up an account on the mortgage company’s site. Rummage around for the account number on the monthly bill. Get everything arranged – and find the right form sitting under the old statement beside the computer. Logout.

“The xxx of total itemized deductions doesn’t count yet because your tax due already includes the best tax break, which is the $6,350 Standard Deduction.Your xxx of mortgage deductions may have also been limited depending on your income.”

Distraction from a previous episode. One of Amerigas’ competitors showed up to check how hard it would be to swap out the Amerigas tank for one of theirs. Life overlaps.

Hmm. Typing in the numbers for the healthcare premiums is supposedly aided by “Copy previous month”; but, it is almost slower than typing it it.

Done? Ouch! That’s the highest tax payment in years, and I only made about $1,000 more than last year. I’m glad I received a friend’s monetary buffer, but how does this keep happening for someone who can’t pay all of their bills? Life in the Gig Economy.

Let’s get finish this and get on with life.

Another ad on the way to the pay window means the fears of the session being dropped arise. Watch the spinning beachball of oy vey.

As if they don’t already have enough personal and private information, now they want my drivers license number.

Not enough? Now I have to prove that I’m not a robot; which I fail because I didn’t type their kaptcha characters fast enough.

More ads, which I get to see because I already gave them money? Huh?

Emails confirm that I paid my bills. I’ve done the responsible thing that would’ve been far more traumatizing if not for the buffer provided by a friend. Without it, I’d either be on some payment plan or selling my house. All this to pay for a government that spends money in ways I consider obscene. Pardon that last bit, I’ll probably feel better in a day or two, but blogging benefits by capturing the unfiltered reality and emotions.

Call a friend to vent. – And then hear about their experience which was worse and involved threats from the IRS.

Go for a run. Sweat it out.

My workload and my taxes are giving me a lot to think about. I see a sitting and thinking and drinking session arriving after I post this. Seven main jobs. A growing network of clients. Great potential, but a potential that hasn’t been realized, as measured by being able to sustain this frugal lifestyle. When the sum is less than enough, but the workload is unsustainable, which work gets removed and how does that help the sum increase? I don’t know.

Writers know the power of the strong declarative statement. Strong declarative statements appeal to people, even when they are obviously false. Check the political realm for examples. Writers know the power of the positive statement. People like happy endings.

My reality isn’t as tidy. More than six years (since My Triple Whammy) of great potential, unrealized. A prelude to success, or a pattern than I must break? Stay tuned to find out. In the meantime, I believe this evening’s introspection pairs with a martini made with homemade spiced vodka. Cheers, and sympathies to all who have similar taxing experiences.

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Expense Report – Heating Update

My, what a big padlock you have. My quest to control my heating costs continues with a bizarre twist. The good news is that the bad news is leading me to good news.

For those who are tuning in late, two months ago I got a propane bill for almost four dollars a gallon, $3.989, about double what the competitors are charging. Calls to the local Amerigas office resulted in a partial reduction, something I’ve done before. I shouldn’t have to do that, said so, and they connected me to the person who controls many of the offices in the region. There was little he could do, but he did offer a $50 credit. Fifty dollars is appreciated, but the prospect of thousand dollar or more fuel bills meant I had to investigate other solutions. That’s the short version. The long version is in the prior blog post, Expense Report – Heating.

I thank all of the contractors, suppliers, and folks in general who helped me work through the options. There can only be one supplier that benefits, but they all treated me with respect and enthusiasm.

Finding a new supplier or system would seem to be a simple thing, but simple things have to weave around complex work lives and schedules to the extent that it took two months to do the research, have the conversations, and meet some folks.

The simple answer was to keep the same kind of heating system and change suppliers. My house is heated by a radiant floor hot water system. The water does’t care which propane provider I use.

DSC_3192

The more complicated answer is in the details. If I’m going to switch suppliers, how does the old tank and its fuel get replaced with a new tank and fuel, and get hooked up to the existing system? Who gets told what and when, and when does the work get done and in which order? The various suppliers handle this regularly, but I don’t. It probably took me more time to ask them about it than it does for them to do the work.

DSCN0971

At the same time those conversations were happening, I was also talking to various contractors referred by Puget Sound Energy about the prospect of going all-electric. Why use propane for anything? In my simplistic vision, replace the propane furnace with an electric furnace and only worry about electricity making it down the line rather than fuel being pumped from the ground, refined, shipped, and delivered?

That was too simplistic, and an example of people not listening. A new furnace and hot water tank would cost thousands of dollars, a nice possibility if I won the lottery jackpot. Instead, every contractor focused on one thing: replacing the propane furnace with a heat pump. Modern heat pumps are much more efficient, cheaper to operate, and relatively quiet. Several of my friends have enjoyed switching to them. They have a one-time cost between $2,000 and $5,000, which is expensive until compared to the recurring roulette cost of my existing propane situation. An interesting possibility.

Unfortunately, replacing the furnace with a heat pump wouldn’t remove the propane system. Something has to heat my hot water and at least two contractors dissuaded me from considering it. So much for all-electric.

Early in the process, I called my original propane supplier (Amerigas) and asked them about delivery options. They suggested I consider switching from automatic delivery (where they guess at when I’ll need it, which they did well) to Will Call (where I call when the tank is empty enough.) All of their competitors suggested I do the same thing, switch to Will Call. So I did.

Switching to Will Call seems like the sort of thing that would be a simple phone call. Nope. Amerigas told me to fill out a form and get it to them by the end of the week to avoid getting another refill sooner than I wanted. I dutifully thanked them on Monday, got the form, filled it out, expedited its delivery on Tuesday, waited a day on Wednesday, and called them on Thursday to make sure they got it by Friday. Otherwise, I’d drive it to them before the deadline. They got it. That was good. Whew.

Within an hour or two, I saw their delivery truck heading into my neighborhood as I was driving out for a long day of work. If I was more paranoid I would’ve turned around to see if they were going to top it off at some high rate, anyway; but, I had appointments scheduled through 9pm.

Getting home after dark I checked my door to see if they’d dropped off an invoice the way they typically did. Nope. Get in. Unpack from the day. Turn up the little electric heater. And then, satisfy my curiosity with a trip to the tank. Good. They didn’t fill it. Weird. There was now a padlock on the tank. No note. No explanation. No warning. Just a padlock on the tank. What’s that all about?

DSCN0970

It was too late to call, and the next work day was busy, so I had to wait before hearing their explanation.

I called and asked if the padlock was theirs. Why padlock it? They wanted to prevent me from filling the tank from another supplier. This is standard procedure, evidently, for people who switch to Will Call. Think about it quick and it kind of makes sense. There must be someone who’d do such a thing. Think about it longer and realize that Will Call shouldn’t make any difference. It would be possible to fill from another source even if it was on automatic delivery. Maybe they only do that with Will Calls because Will Calls are more likely to switch suppliers. In which case, how many of their customers are going through the same process? I don’t know. I do know that their logic wasn’t consistent – the kind of consistency I recommend to my clients, but they aren’t one of my clients, so there was no need for me to correct them.

I’m glad for competition. Amerigas’ high prices inspired me to look for alternatives. Too many times, their policies seemed to be company-centric instead of customer-centric. They take care of themselves. I get to take care of myself. Fortunately for me, their competitors convinced me they were customer-centric, too.

The tank is about 50% full. After about 20% to 40% of the tank’s fuel is spent I’ll switch suppliers. VanderYacht Propane managed to convince me on price and experience swapping tanks, and their customers convinced me of their good service. The race was close, but I could only select one, and they got the one and only vote. No vetoes.

It is spring. I use about 10% of the tank every month in winter. I use less in spring. It will take months, and possibly a season or two to use up enough of the fuel to make the tank light enough to move. Consumer decisions sound like one day decision making events. Reality takes longer. The next move may not happen for months, but I’m at least relieved that I shouldn’t receive any more Amerigas fuel bills. If I do, I look forward to finally applying that $50 credit the upper level manager offered. I can’t find it on the fuel bill, the tank bill, or in any reference to my account when I called. A switch to a better competitor may make that a small price to pay.

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GERN Spikes I Buy AST

Here’s a happy chart for a long term investor. In less than an hour and a half, stock in one of my oldest positions rose from ~$5 to over $6.60. Over 30% rise in under 90 minutes. Extrapolate that out for an entire year and re-retirement is obvious. Pull back for the broader view and notice that it was under $2.50 within the last month. This is the way biotechs work, and don’t. Geron had good news (that someone may have gotten early, but that wouldn’t happen because that wouldn’t be right) so the stock climbed, and then climbed more as the data was made public, and then the investors kicked up up when the price went over $5. In the meantime, I bought another biotech instead, AST. It promptly went down, which was fine with me.

Buying biotech stocks is one of the riskier investment strategies. Biotechs are like startups, but amplified. They have to be because they involve humans and health. An electronics startup can invent an idea, fund it, build it, and sell it in a year or so. (Someone tell MicroVision that.) A biotech has to step carefully, openly, and slowly to make sure the public, the patients, the doctors, and the federal regulators can keep up. Theory, then research, then lab tests, animal tests, and watch years of cash burn and consternation go by. Then, human trials. First comes safety, then efficacy, then dosage (not exactly, but that gives an idea of the process.) Each phase takes years to plan, conduct, and understand. If all goes well enough, then the treatment gets reviewed for months or years by the FDA. Sometimes the FDA approves the treatment. Sometimes they tell the company to go back for more data. Sometimes they say stop. Those are years of expenses with little income, lots of risk to the company and the patients, and too many opportunities for chaos or competitors to challenge the company. But if they succeed, if they succeed…

Geron is working on Imetelstat, a name so convoluted that I always have to check the spelling and never feel that I got it right. The data is specifically for a blood disorder but the implications are far grander. Geron has sold off almost all of their technologies to keep the company alive. Their remaining prominent treatment is based on managing telomeres, the molecules that tell cells to die or not. If cells don’t die properly, they can threaten the patient with cancer. If cells die too easily, it is more like autoimmune diseases. (All of this is my amateur understanding. Want the real data? Check with the company, the SEC, and the FDA.) If the treatment works, then the technology may be extended. If the technology can be extended beyond blood disorders and into other cancers, then the company may finally live up to its potential. Hence, the spike after a long wait.

My wait has been long. GERN is the only stock I bought as a tip from a friend. That was in 1999. Within three months the stock went from $14 to over $71. I felt brilliant for what little I knew about biotechnology, and grateful for my friend. Then, the Internet Bubble burst and so did irrational exuberance. Years of delays and trials have now stretched into decades. Phase 2 trials are good, but in the normal process, Geron still has to conduct Phase 3 trials and hope for a quick FDA approval. Those who follow this blog are aware that I’ve sold almost all of my portfolio as I continue to work at recovering from my Triple Whammy. Only a few stocks remain, most of which are disruptive companies that I think are under-appreciated. Each has the potential to rise as GERN did. And then it didn’t.

By the end of the day, that $1.60 rise dropped back to a $0.14 rise. The activity of the last two weeks could be a case study in the various factions within the investment community: long term shareholders, shorts, day traders, institutions, insiders, and possibly nefarious individuals and organizations. I buy stocks for the long term precisely because fundamentals and patience free me from the noise of fluctuations. $0.14 sounds small after watching $1.60 go away, but doubling in less than a month is very welcome.

I bought AST instead.

My consulting and real estate businesses haven’t suddenly exploded, but a gift of a monetary buffer from a friend freed up a much smaller pocket buffer I was holding in emergency reserve. At that point, GERN had begun its early rise, but without public data. Investing in biotechs is risky enough; buying stocks on rumors is even riskier. I looked at both of my biotech holdings and realized I preferred to have a better balance between the two. I bought some AST to even up the number of shares.

Welcome to irony. AST is the stock for Asterias, a company I am invested in because they are developing a treatment for severe nerve damage. There are few successful treatments for damaged nerves. Accident victims have few options. By applying stem cells to the affected area, Asterias has managed to help patients regain some use of their limbs. They, too, are in Phase 2 trials; but the size of the unmet need, the cost of living with damaged limbs, and the possible outcry for solutions may convince the FDA to speed the approval process. The irony is that Asterias bought the technology from Geron, and that transaction is one of the sources that has kept Geron alive.

I admit to an experience that has also cautioned me about innovative cancer treatments. Few work. Very few receive FDA approval. FDA approval would seem to be enough, yet Dendreon received FDA approval for a cancer vaccine and then went bankrupt. To me, Dendreon seemed aimed to reach profitability within a year or so, and could easily treat the prostate cancer patient population for about a billion dollars. That’s a lot, and that expense was one of the reasons claimed for its failure. If they succeeded, they would’ve out-competed companies that weren’t as effective but were making many billions more. Dendreon was actually cheap in comparison. The industry’s immune response could afford to challenge a sub-billion dollar startup with the industry’s phenomenal resources. Geron may encounter the same resistance. Asterias probably won’t. While they are both in clinical trials, however, everything is speculation – including the investments.

GERN’s spike was fun to watch. I set up my iPad just so I could see the chart action as I worked. It’s daily bubble popped, but I wasn’t dismayed. This is normal for biotechs with good news. A 30% rise in 90 minutes is small compared to what I’ve seen GERN and DNDN do. They and several of my stocks have risen 130% in a day. I recall one rising 230% in a day. Those were good days, and those days were inspired by good news.

My expectations are high. For those initial shares of GERN to be a good investment the stock would have to double every five years (~ 15% ROI, a high ROI to compensate for the risk.) In that case, 1999 = $14, 2004 = $28, 2009 = $56, 2014 = $112, 2019 = $224. Okay, allow me to revise that. I don’t expect GERN to reach $224 in 2019. It would be nice. It might even be possible, but it is improbable. I’ll accept what happens. I’ve held these last shares for this long. I’ll hold until the end of the story; but if it hits $448, well, let’s keep in mind that, as the title of my book says, Dream. Invest. Live. Investing is the tool that connects dreams to living.

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Motivation In The Gig Economy

Original thoughts are valuable. That’s why patents exist. Many new ideas are new to the person who thought them, but a bit of research shows that someone else thought the same thing some other time and place. (Got an idea? I know a guy who’d like to help.) The same is true about advice, insights, and wisdom. Like legitimate, original patents, original lessons (like revelations) are valuable. Patents are valuable to the inventor (ideally), and maybe to those who benefit from their use. Advice, insights, and wisdom can be valuable to anyone who cares to listen – even if the thoughts aren’t new. The Gig Economy is teaching lessons to its growing population. The ideas may seem new, but they are familiar to those who’ve always relied on sporadic businesses: e.g. doctors, brokers, consultants. Soon, most workers will be studying those lessons by choice or by necessity. The best lesson may be what it takes to get out of bed in the morning.

The talk about the Gig Economy can be tiresome to those doctors, brokers, and consultants who’ve worked for decades in environments where income isn’t guaranteed, benefits are paid for personally, and time off from work means a vacation from income but not a vacation from expenses. It was easy to ignore their situation when they were a small slice of the workforce. Now, their lessons will be applicable to a much larger chunk of the populace.

The Gig Economy started with the tendency to outsource work. Full-time employees were encouraged to work from outside the office, saving on facility expenses. Some saw their jobs turn into part-time or contract work, saving the companies money for health benefits, vacations, and retirement plans. By 1995, 9% of the workforce had the new working conditions. Welcome the broad acceptance of the Internet and watch the number grow to today’s 15%. Smartphones and corporate policies are accelerating the change. Instead of taking twenty years to gain 6%, the next ten years could turn the majority of workers into members of the Gig Economy. Those doctors, brokers, and consultants have already learned the lessons that half the workforce must learn, and quickly.

It can be tough getting up Monday through Friday, making breakfast and lunch, getting the kids off to school, taking care of the pets, and then commuting to a job. It can be such a drudge that there are posters and cartoons helping people vicariously vent frustrations. Scott Adams’ Dilbert succeeds because that repetitive life is too common. Underlying the routine, and its evening mirror is a relatively predictable structure. Days are well-defined. Paychecks arrive on a regular basis. Long term goals can be aimed at. Paying bills, saving for retirement, and squeezing in vacations can be planned. There will be drudgery, but it is a familiar drudgery that can be planned for, coped with, and negotiated around.

Step into the Gig Economy.

Whether you see it as new or old, the only familiarity is the structure you define. Without a structure, schedules can become so fluid that computerized calendars become a necessity. The brochure for the Gig Economy may tout freedom, but building a business from a series of gigs also means negotiating the jigsaw puzzle of a scattering of client schedules that have little incentive for working nicely with others. The worker becomes a business. The business’ revenues are more unpredictable than the schedules. Each contract is a new opportunity for different payment plans, different tendencies to pay on-time or in-full or randomly, and different ways to pay. Check, credit card, PayPal, cash, Bitcoin, or…?

Like I said above, that may seem like a familiar situation for 15% of the population, but there’s another 30% that’s about to have to learn those lessons. Tens of millions will be looking for answers.

Waking up is hard to do. Amidst the various gripes I hear, getting motivated every day is one of the persistent problems. With a regular job, alarm clocks can be set at one time for every work day. With erratic schedules and assignments, every day, even the weekends, can start with an early morning flash of urgency; “Did I sleep in?”, “Do I have to get somewhere now, or later?”, “Is there a deadline in the next few hours or days?” Every morning can start with heightened uncertainty. Then the business sided of the conversation kicks in; “How many different jobs and clients do I have to keep in mind?”, “How much am I expecting to make today?”, “Is that more than I’m going to spend?”. Whatever the answer, the follow-on is; “How long can this feast or famine last?”, and “Have I set aside enough from the feasts for the next famine?” In the midst of dry spells, it is easy to want to hide under the covers. That’s not just an expression. I know folks who regularly retreat to time under the blanket, not because they are lazy, but because their situation is so precarious and uncertain that they actually fear taking on the day. It can be a scary world, out there.

Getting out of bed can become a special skill.

I know those kinds of mornings. It has been years since I’ve seen a steady revenue surplus. (Massive understatement.) If an alarm goes off, I know I have something to do. I rarely wake up to an alarm. If I have something to do, I tend to wake up before the alarm rings. If I don’t have anything immediately scheduled, there’s no alarm; but I wake up anyway. As I lay there, my mind frequently flips into the worries about having enough, how to get it, and what will happen if I don’t get enough. That’s where worries can rule the day. I found a way around that.

I play the lottery. Of course I want to win the jackpot, get healthier, and re-retire. The lottery is a ticket for hope. One morning several years ago I woke up with the worries and stopped myself. Wouldn’t it be nice to win the lottery? Sure. I asked myself what would be different. As I lay there, I realized I was warm, my muscles were more relaxed than they would be the rest of the day, the world was quiet, and I was comfortable. A hundred million dollars wouldn’t change the essence of that feeling. (Though I might own a bed, again.) I was already experiencing that feeling. There was no need to buy it. I might as well enjoy it – at least for a little while.

Now, I know my mind will start down that very logical, responsible, and possibly depressing work-related path; and I’ll pull myself back. Any regrets are in the past. Leave them there. The worries are about the future. I’ll get to that. The present is precious, and not just first thing in the morning. As I type this, the sun is setting on a warm, late winter day. Dogs and birds are making as much noise as someone’s far-off suburban background hum. I know what I’m having for dinner. I should have time for a walk, maybe a karate workout, and almost definitely Netflix and popcorn. The more I notice the present, the less I worry about the future – at least for a while.

My motivation that gets me out of bed is an appreciation of the present, plus an awareness that futures can change by chance. Contacts made years ago can deliver opportunities in unexpected emails and phone calls. Good luck plays a large enough role in successes that few biographies and histories exist without it. That’s what works for me. If it works for you, great! If not, and if you find yourself in a similar situation, check around with folks that have been dealing with it for decades, those experienced doctors, brokers, and consultants.

As for luck. I bought my lottery tickets. I wonder, did you, too? (Really, the Powerball plus MegaMillions jackpots combined are worth ~$800,000,000. Would winning them make you sleep better or worse? Stay tuned.)

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A Coworks Arrives On Whidbey

Yes! The newest incarnation in Whidbey coworks has opened in Clinton. It is the latest in a series of people supporting people, people finding ways to live on and work from the island. (Here’s a bit of the backstory. https://trimbathcreative.wordpress.com/?s=coworks)

Tom Trimbath's avatarAbout Whidbey

A new coworks has opened on the island. Whidbey may be known as a vacation spot with tourist towns, but people work here, too. Coworks aren’t new to the island. There’s a history of various incarnations of them (including one dedicated to writers). As of March 1st, WicoWorks (capitalization subject to change: WIcoworks, WICoworks, WICoWorks, WICOWORKS, whatever), a new coworks opened in Clinton at the top of the hill from the ferry with light bouncing into the room from the sun shining on the Sound – weather permitting. There’s more than one way to work on the island.

Screenshot 2018-03-06 at 12.00.28

Yes, Whidbey is a vacation spot, but thousands of full-time residents are full-time employees. The luckiest get to work on the island. Many commute to Seattle, Everett, and around the region. Many jobs no longer require a commute. The growing Gig Economy is powered by people who can work wherever there’s a…

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I Found My Sign

Live around creative people and never be bored – and be ready for surprises. I was surprised by a friend’s creativity that produced something fun and useful, and that is going to change. He gave me a sign, one with my name on it that I can use as a roving member of the Gig Economy. Some people imagine living in a community of conventional thinking, conventional activities, and conventional expectations. Bah! Shudder. For me, life is more fun and feels more valuable when people play.

Joe is not a member of the Gig Economy. He’s been in management of a tech firm, which means he knows the ways of the corporate world. Now his family runs a collection of businesses selling art, crafts, art supplies, office supplies, art printing services, design services, business printing services, and more – while every member of the family is an accomplished artist. It’s easier to simply use their business name of Fine Balance Imaging + Printing. (Maybe not exactly that, but close enough.) Visiting their business is like dropping into a playground for creatives and entrepreneurs. I drop by because they’ve sold and printed my photos, helped me with my books, and generally helped me with my various businesses. That last part is why they know I’m busy in the Gig Economy. They’re so aware of the new nature of business that they created a workspace for folks like me. Brainstorming there is fun, and they get some of the neatest and newest toys, er, tools.

A couple of years ago, a new kind of laser cutter was created thanks to a crowdfunding campaign. Joe raised the money, ordered one, and then waiting over a year for delivery. Some of the things people are making with the machine are marvelous. I felt humbled because I saw the potential, saw what others were creating, and found my ideas didn’t quite fit. That was until this week. Earlier this week I created a design that won’t be revealed yet because it needs tweaking, lots of tweaking. It has the potential to be fun, and accidentally possibly profitable. Surprise!

Yesterday, after talking with Joe, I got an email. In less than a half an hour, he’d thought of an idea, designed it, developed it, and had the machine create it. Thirty minutes and there it is, a simple yet useful sign for my times. It is a sign that I can set on a coffeehouse table that tells me people who I am and what I do. That may sound bold, but it solves a simple and embarrassing aspect of life in the Gig Economy, meeting with new people. Surprise, my sign is a sign.

Working clients in the Gig Economy can be like going on a blind date. They may be able to guess who they are trying to meet, but people don’t always look like their tiny icon from emails and Facebook posts. A sign that says “Tom Trimbath” removes the awkward moment. That is useful enough, and then Joe added a few other bits that made the sign even more useful. In addition to my name there’s also a list of my skills and talents, as well as a way to contact me. (He got the info from my bio, another good reason to have an online presence.)

We’ve already come up with improvements for both of our designs, but hey, I got one of the first prototypes. Very cool.

Watching mainstream ads and the news can seem surreal from the perspective of the island. Islands are not in the main stream of anything, sometimes on purpose. It is one reason why every island creates a unique identity. On the mainland, neighborhoods overlap and blend. Islands have distinct and non-negotiable borders. Pick your lifestyle, pick the island to match.

The unique nature of living on Whidbey Island is obvious whenever I take real estate classes. Classes are created for the typical student, not for the outliers. I’ve heard strategies for making houses stand out and making agents stand out. It makes sense in massive developments. Every home is unique, but in a development of houses built from similar plans, it takes extra effort to differentiate each house. That may be hard, but at least each sale is more likely to be familiar and similar to another. In one class, most of the students didn’t believe the stories we told about how individual artists’ homes can be. Every sale is a custom sale, which also means more work, more research, and more double-checking. Most houses don’t come equipped with foundries, outhouses, or innovative unregulated architecture. Wealthier homes (usually not the artists, but sometimes…) are custom designed for people who don’t expect to compromise. Every home is a surprise. For many buyers that may be a negative, but for the right buyer that can be an immense positive.

We’ve entered an era when old rules are quickly being eclipsed and replaced. Some may hold onto old notions but the trends seem to be unstoppable in: auto autos, AI assistants, new fuel versus old fuel, new power distribution versus old power centers, diversification, and social action. It is also true in personal finance. On balance, the number of jobs created in the recovery from the Great Recession equals the number of jobs created in the Gig Economy. Old workers are surprised by new rules, and finding ways to stand out becomes more important. Old rules about careers, long-term mortgages, technology upgrades, and institutional stability are fading fast. A thirty year mortgage made sense when a job meant quietly arriving at work for thirty years and returning to an address that didn’t change while only having to learn a few new skills along the way. Surprises are now the norm, whether they are welcome or not.

Now, a business can be built with funds from crowds. Glowforge raised almost a million dollars a day for a month during its campaign. Now that the machines are being delivered, hundreds or thousands of new small businesses can be created. Joe and I came up with designs for the fun of it; and looking at the results we realize they could be businesses, too. (And he did his in fifteen minutes. How long would it take to create a working prototype twenty years ago?) Creative ideas aren’t as reliable as conventional ideas, normally; but these aren’t normal times. I don’t know if Joe’s sign design will catch on, though the three people I showed it to all smiled and came up with yet more ideas. I don’t know if my design for playfully improving laptop security will do more than make me smile, but it’s worth playing with – even if all it does is make smiles happen.

We can mourn the passing of the past or cheer the arrival of the future. The arrival of the future is inevitable. I hope to cheer its surprises and maybe add a few of mine. In the meantime, I think I’ll be glad I found a sign.

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Gifts And Upgrades

Well, that certainly didn’t go as planned. Thanks to a monetary buffer, it turned out well. My main computer died today, or at least went catatonic. It may yet live again, but its status will be diminished. In the last two weeks, some generous people made it much easier to upgrade a few key things just as those things slipped from well-used to almost useless. Thanks, folks. Now, my bicycle and my business are in much better shape. Maybe I will be too, soon.

This morning started with a fascinating conversation with some people with amazing histories and resumes. That may sound hyperbolic, but hey, impressive people happen. We got together to work on affordable housing on Whidbey. A planner, a homeless advocate, a financier, and a real estate broker (me) got together to talk about some possibilities and how we could make at least one of them happen. Typical for Whidbey, those four titles cover about a fourth of the skills represented at the table (monk, rocket scientist, English major, talk show host, …); but I’ll save that story for later.

We met at the South Whidbey Commons, a coffee shop and book store that is run by and for students, that also lives up to its name of Commons. Sit there long enough to drink a cup or two of coffee or tea (my preference) and probably be in the vicinity of some discussion about charitable activities for the island, or even for the world. I regularly use it as a typical Gig Economy workspace. I even have a my favorite table, chair, and most importantly, electrical outlet. (The Chromebook I had with me has to be plugged in.) After about an hour and a half most of us were looking at our watches as our work, advocacy, or school schedules reminded us of our other obligations. We all packed up and strode off to whatever was next. I did the same thing, then remembered that my next meeting was in the same place at the same table in a couple of hours. About face! March back in. Reclaim the table. Order another cup of tea, and get to work.

That’s when things froze up.

Yes, the snow is fallen; but the freeze happened inside my Chromebook. As it powered up the screen lit up with the splash page that advertised the companies involved (as if we needed to be reminded of what we buy) – and stayed there. My tea steeped as I dialed customer support. After about ten to fifteen minutes the customer service rep declared my computer broken. It was far past warranty; so it would take a few days and about $250 to fix. If that was my Mac, I’d get it fixed; though I’d use my local service folks. It’s a Chromebook. New ones can cost under $200. No brainer. Also, no reason to wait and plenty of reasons to act quickly.

I have yet to make any money as a real estate broker, but we’re past the holidays and people are ready to move on. A quick check came up with a list of about a half dozen possible clients that I’m having conversations with, and about another dozen who might do something later this year. Add in my regular clients for my consulting business and it made sense to get operational as soon as possible. I hopped in the truck (took a detour to help a friend get home on a wintry day) and drove an hour north to the land of chain stores. There was one stop along the way, just in case an electronics business on the south end of the island sold computers, but nope.

Buying computers can be a chore with complicated options, competing companies, and array of incompatibilities. The store had three Chromebooks. Two were demo models. One was in a box in the back. It seemed too impulsive to just pick the one available, so I dithered for no other reason than to slow myself down a bit. The universe has a sense of humor. The only computer in a box was the new version of my old computer. Add in a microSD card (because the new computer can’t use old “clunky” full-sized SD cards) and a sweet deal on a USB drive (32Gig for $11); add in the gas and a deli lunch; and the total came to the same total from four years ago (~$300).

Three hours from start to finish and I was back in business. All of that was enabled because a friend decided to give me a monetary buffer. My situation is well-enough known, and they knew something researchers are only now discovering. The best way to help people who don’t have enough money is to give them more money. It’s almost too simple. In a capitalistic society, you need money to make money. Businesses fail if they are under-capitalized. That’s well understood. The fundamental problem with the poor is that they are under-capitalized. Skip the fancy non-profits, initiatives, and government programs and simply give people money. They’ll know what to do because only they know what’s happening in their lives. Worries about mis-use aren’t backed up by data. Because of that buffer, my business was only shut down for three hours. I was back to billable time by the afternoon. (As to whether that buffer is a gift, grant, or loan I’m not sure; but it’s moot until I have recovered enough to pay it back or pay it forward.)

A similar thing happened with my bicycle. Most of my cycling gear is from before my ride across America in 2000. Water bottles had fallen apart and were replaced with whatever fit in the rack (and probably rattled.) Gloves had holes in them (and not the stylish ones people pay extra for.) Safety features like lights were re-purposed hiking gear strapped to my helmet that made people stifle their laughs when I rode up. Even socks were wearing thin and out.

A gift card made a big difference. So did patience. It’s February. REI’s holiday clearance sale reached great discounts, and if I bought enough I also got an extra $20 credit. Thanks to sales and a willingness to dress somewhat tackily (tacky is safety in the bicycling world), I was able to replace my water bottles, winter gloves, summer gloves, get real helmet lights and taillights, and some very nice wool socks.

Sounds like a small thing? Consider the price of gas and health care. My truck gets about 13 mpg (which made that hour long drive up and back expensive.) My doctor did a great job of convincing me to get back into shape (a diabetic scare will do that.) Two major issues taken care of because someone gave me a gift card that helped me leverage discounts and sales into something that saves me money and helps me get healthy. Total cost to me, ~$6.

I sit here sipping some box wine, typing on my ten year-old MacBook, not intending to go for a ride for days, maybe weeks. A rare sea-level snow is falling. A pot roast with cauliflower is roasting. (They were both on sale.) The new computer has already been used. One advantage of Chromebooks is the fast setup time, minutes instead of days. Tomorrow, I’ll explore it some more, just to see what has changed in four years. I’ll swap some of the removable memory, personalize more of the settings, and exercise several clients’ accounts, just to make sure.

And I look forward to paying generosity forward, to help others as I’ve been helped – hopefully, even more so. And, I’ll probably find some day to take apart the old Chromebook for curiosity, and maybe to fix it. (Which, by the way, was also the result of  a gift from a friend.) It would be nice to have a backup. It would also be nice to pass it along to someone who needs and can use it. Little gifts (…/grants, loans, and buffers) can make a big difference.

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Thirty Year Wisdom

Mentor yourself, but with help. My birthday went by a little while ago. It wasn’t one of the ones with a big zero at the end, but it meant a lot to me because it was the same age that triggered a major shift in my father’s career. I decided to take a bit of conventional wisdom and flip it. Rather than mentor myself, I decided to ask someone how they would mentor their younger self. I asked someone who is about thirty years older than me, what they wish they’d known thirty years earlier. It wasn’t something from an ad or a consultant.

For much of human history, cultures respected elders. Experience is valuable and experience is only gained by living. Even as recently as a hundred years ago, seniors were seen as resources. Got a question or a quandary? Ask someone who may have experienced a similar situation. Got doubts about a choice? Ask someone who probably had to make the same one. Pick the right person and the response is real, not ideal; realistic, not idealistic.

Now, questions, quandaries, and doubts are raised and presented to Google’s search engine. How many answers have you received by the end of any normal workday? The answers may include experience, but they probably don’t include nuance.

I wanted nuance, insight, and a realistic response from a friend who is reflecting on their life while also understanding how my life is similar and different. I invited a friend who is about thirty years older than me to hear from him what he wished he could tell his younger self. The total cost was an hour of my time and the price of one cup of coffee for him and one cup of tea for me.

My worries are about how to make life sustainable and enjoyable for the next thirty years. I expected to hear the kind of advice we hear in ads and from professionals: save for the future, live frugally, eat healthily, exercise, stay active, get ready for inevitable health issues.

I heard something different and unexpected. He wished he’d spent more time learning how to express himself through his violin. Thirty years earlier, he knew how to play, or rather, perform with the instrument. Technically, he was proficient enough to be in several ensembles. He did enjoy the music and the performances, but now he realizes how close and yet how far he was from so much more. Playing the music well was an accomplishment. Expressing his emotions, well, that’s something he now knows is possible, but that he missed by not pursuing the deeper side of the very instrument he was already proficient at.

Other things have happened in those thirty years. Entire generations can be born and birth the next generation. Careers can be started, developed, and retired from. Especially now, entire technological advances can be invented, integrated, and discarded. Thirty years ago the Internet was novel, dot matrix printers and dial-up modems were normal, cable TV was challenging broadcast television, the Soviet Union was collapsing and everyone knew Japan was going to dominate the world economy.

I worry about how I’m going to provide for myself for the next thirty years. Real estate is promising, as is consulting with creative people, teaching, speaking, writing, and several of the initiatives others have presented to me. I’m old enough and have had enough fun that my body has developed a list of annoyances that could develop into nuisances into …? Thirty years is a lot of time. Am I working on the right opportunities or ‘should’ I take the time to learn yet another new career or revitalize my interests in math, physics, and engineering?

Switch the topic to the world and thirty years means a lot of changes. Digital Singularities, sea level rise, agricultural concerns, national instabilities, societal changes, and a long list of natural disasters make my personal changes and choices almost insignificant. Change has never been so rapid. Do plans even make any sense?

And, he wishes he’d spent more time doing more than playing the violin. He wishes he’d spent more time expressing himself through solo and probably solitary performances.

So, put aside the money, medical, physical, and global concerns. How can I apply his lesson to my life? What do I wish I’d known thirty years ago?

The first thing that comes to mind is trusting myself, trusting my intuition. I can replay several key occasions that turned out poorly when I did what others thought was right instead of what I felt was right. That’s true in relationships, career, and finances. My choices weren’t perfect. My intuition probably wouldn’t be perfect either, but my life and my current situation would probably be much better.

One point perspective creates a limited version of a multi-dimensional life. I’m glad for his insights and advice. I’ll be glad for others, too.

He had his violin. Maybe I should sign up for voice lessons, again.

Oh, but to have bought more AOL, to have sold CSCO sooner, to have held onto FFIV, well, let’s see what can happen in the next thirty years.

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