UnShameless Self-Promotion

Posted on November 27, 2010 by Tom Trimbath

Self-promotion is something every entrepreneur and artist is supposed to utilize. Sole-proprietors are frequently one-person shows, president, treasurer, sales staff, cook, clerk, and advertiser. We all have many skills and we all have flaws. One of mine is that I struggle when I try to be a shameless self-promoter. Gregarious? Yes. Salesman? Not so much. Nobody’s perfect, which is why I like the Will Roger’s line (paraphrased), “We’re all equally ignorant, just in different areas.” Its corollary is that we are all equally brilliant, just in different areas.

I am a photographer. I sell my photos in a variety of venues (Raven Rocks Gallery, Fine Balance Imaging, smugmug, blurb, my house). I am a writer. My books (which are too many to list so here’s a link) are available online and on-island, and even in Bellingham. Once upon a time I taught karate, and prior to that I was an aerospace engineer. Even typing this paragraph is a struggle against an internal resistance that wants to get to the point instead of focussing on me.

I’m pleased with the frequent compliments and the occasional sales. Of course, more sales would be better and the holidays are right around the corner!

My deflection of self-promotion happened again the other night at a Financial Integrity class. I was happy to be the guest speaker. One of my life joys is public speaking. I mentioned my book a few times, and that’s what I called it, my book. One of the students had to prompt me for the title  and where it was available. I told them that Dream. Invest. Live. was available online and in the local bookstores. And in the library. My sales may not be stellar, but I am so good at pointing out the free way to see my work that the library has had to reorder copies of some because they’ve been checked out so many times. I even forgot to bring copies to the event.

Is this just my issue? Of course not. We’re all brilliant and ignorant in different areas. I’m reasonably good with words, numbers, photographs, speaking, dancing, and lots of other things. I could be much better at sales, advertising, inventory management, and filling out my taxes. Everyone has their own list, and the most aware folks are aware of both sides.

It’s tricky enough to understand the personal strengths and weaknesses. It is harder to extend that to others.

Frequently, especially in the news and in politics, others are labeled as heroes or villains. Short attention spans and limited time slots don’t provide much opportunity for fuller stories.

It may be tricky but it is valuable to realize that every person in every story has more than one side. This is much more apparent to me as we cruise into the holidays. Facebook has been a wonderful window into friends’ compassions. Thanksgiving Day was a constant stream of heartfelt thanks, frequently buttressed with concrete examples of why people felt blessed. It choked me up at one point, which is a rare occurrence considering my upbringing as a boy from outside Pittsburgh.

Yet, look at Facebook. Consider its founder. Some see it and him as invaders of privacy. Some see enablers of community. I suggest you go see the movie.

That dichotomy exists within every person and institution. On a personal level, it means I cut people a lot of slack. As an investor, it means I am more likely to dig a layer deeper. Good news may be covering up a kernel of bad. Bad news may be a blessing by providing an opportunity. I even suspect that most politicians aren’t as evil as they portray each other, though I do wish they’d get past the adolescent histrionics and get to managing the country.

I’m already looking ahead to the end of the year. Those who are familiar with my routine know about my love of the holidays, the exercise where I summarize all of my stocks, and my ski trip that celebrates my birthday.

Oh yeah (and this wasn’t outlined or scripted) I just remembered that on January 3rd I’ll be interviewed as an artist on KWPA (Coupeville and streaming) and then giving a slideshow at the Coupeville Library based on my most recent photo essay, Twelve Months at Admiralty Head. Nice way to start the year.

Hmm, maybe I can get better at self-promotion. Maybe I can change. I suspect that I’m not alone in that capacity either. I’ll give thanks for that.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Fruitcake and Compost

Posted on November 24, 2010 by Tom Trimbath

What a combo. The only way compost gets into a fruitcake is through plants grown in organic soils or an atrocious pantry. I’m not even sure that fruitcake can become compost. Consider how long some fruitcakes are passed around without breaking down. Impressive from a preservative point of view. Maybe the two are mutually exclusive. They do, though, both hearken back to a time when people used words like “hearken”. It was a more frugal time, a more earthy time, and a time when the only things ethereal were god, angels and demons; not esoteric financial instruments, or bizarre tax terms.

Queue up the fruitcake jokes, but I make fruitcakes. Twenty years I baked one for Christmas to see what the jokes were about, thought mine was okay, and didn’t think about it much more. The next year I sent one to my folks, and they said they liked it; but I believed the jokes more than their assurances, so I didn’t make one the next year. Every year since I’ve had requests for them. A few years back I was making so many that my bill for the ingredients was $200. Organic ingredients cost a lot, but evidently the taste was worth it. This year is different because last year I passed the culinary baton to the nieces and nephews by sending them the recipe. I’ve made a couple, and that will be it.

It would be grand if civilization grew in spirals, but history suggests that the path is more convoluted and not necessarily heading towards a destined goal. We continue to try different things, usually by replacing the familiar with the new. We hope for a better life. Occasionally though we have collective remorse and realize we’ve left something vital behind.

Recently the financial community went too far down a new road. Anyone tied to them via credit or debt was pulled along. When they hit the dead-end there was a pile-up that has yet to be untangled. People tightly tied to leveraged debt were caught in the wreck. People less reliant on credit were safer. Those without debt were almost unaffected, unless their employers went down that road.

We are reassessing how we got here and how to get back. The optimist in me is encouraged by the fact that we’ve been saner in the past and that nothing except bad habits stops us from returning to a proper balance of financial regulation and freedom. The pessimist in me worries that the dysfunctional power structure may be too ingrained, more like an addict instead of someone with bad habits.

Last night at a class that was silly enough to ask me to drop by and speak, someone passed along a variant on the K.I.S.S principle. Instead of Keep It Simple Stupid, she suggested Keep It Simple Sweetheart. I’m sure that positive variant has been around for a while, but it was new to me. Sweetheart – how southern.

It is possible to over simplify discussions, and the simple life of the past is only simple in retrospect. But we can take elements of today and simplify them. It is one of the reasons I invest in small companies. Before I buy their stock all I have to research is that one company, its few products, and its key people. Larger, collective investments like mutual funds, involve hundreds of companies, variable strategies, and less-visible managers. Commodities, currencies, and government securities can get wrapped up in global economics, political agendas, and international conflicts. I don’t want to have to understand the effects of Britain’s money supply and the Korean crisis on federal exchange rates. I’d rather try to understand why Microvision (MVIS) is behind on getting its next product out the door, or when Dendreon (DNDN) is going to start its next clinical trial in its fight against cancer.

Fruitcake looks complicated. Slice through and there’s a lot going on in there. But baking one can be very simple. Dump the ingredients in a bowl. Mix. Pour into a baking dish. Bake. Cool. Store. Eat. And yes, fruitcakes were originally intended to be eaten instead of passed along as joke gifts. They were the best way to preserve fruits and nuts for the winter, and were handy for hunters and travelers. They were some of the original energy bars.

More people are returning to days of simplicity. Compost piles were uncommon thirty years ago. Now people recognize that they are a great way to get rid of kitchen and yard waste, and are a lot cheaper than buying more dirt from the nursery. Come to think of it, the recipe is similar to that of fruitcake: dump into a pile, mix occasionally, bake in its own heat, and serve it up to plants so they can eat. It’s an old idea that simply works.

The modern world is inevitably complicated because there are billions of us. The demands of the holidays can be overwhelming, with pulls coming from many directions. But each of us can choose an element or two to simplify within our lives. Simplifying everything at once is too difficult. Fixing all the world’s problems will take time. But simplifying one step, and then moving onto the next is easier and still progressive.

Today I’ll bake a batch of cookies. Yesterday I made the filling. This morning I’ll make the dough. This afternoon I’ll bake them. And none of them will end up in the compost pile. I’m surprised they make it out of the kitchen. Then, soon after Thanksgiving, the cookies and fruitcake will be shipped to family. It is a simple way to start the holidays.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Sound Bites

Posted on November 20, 2010 by Tom Trimbath

Sound bites, yuck. There’s a sound bite right there. The distillation of a complex issue into as few words as possible can be artistry, but taken too far can be tragic. A bit of time and heat can produce a marvelous gravy from some wine in a dirty roasting pan, but cook it down to far and you end up with tar. Unfortunately, there isn’t enough time to accommodate complex understanding about every issue, and sometimes the simplest phrase is best. The trick is knowing when each is appropriate, in society, in investing, in introspection.

Calling something a sound bite is frequently derogatory. The speaker glossed over the topic, maybe to avoid inconvenient truths, like the stereotype of the used-car salesman. Low Mileage; yes, but they were all spent in salt water launching boats. Rust anyone? Feel free to pick your own examples from political pronouncements. There are so many that the news is usually nothing but sound bite interviews with sound bite commentaries. It makes great material for our national jesters of Stewart and Colbert. Sometimes they don’t even have to write anything, just pick from the day’s odd bits. In that regard, politicians are the victims of the limited time the media has to cover a story. They have to use sound bites to get the message out, but there is a built-in probability of mis-understanding.

Sound bites are necessary because there are so many things to talk about. Elevator pitches are based on the idea that someone usually only has the attention span of an elevator ride to become interested in a new idea. Isn’t that the basic idea behind the pick-up line? The dramatically short sales pitch for some type of interpersonal relationship, which encompasses a wide variety of possibilities. In either case, volumes of material is ignored and left for later discussion, which is only presented if the sound bite was successful.

Sound bites are also necessary as rally points. They may fit on a sign or a bumper sticker or act as a headline. More successful sound bites are easily remembered and shared. Communities form up around them. “No taxation without representation.”

Living a life based on sound bites is like dining purely on frosting. It is superficial, can be sweet, but in the long run isn’t healthy. Tweets can be a good way to find the hot topics, but the real story remains in longer forms. Thank you mini-urls. Thank you wikipedia.

Unfortunately, entire communities seem to never get past the sound bite. I’ll skip the political examples and retreat to the safer realm of investing. Much of Wall Street is based on overly-distilled data. With thousands of companies to research, most analysts can’t take the time to dig into more than a few, and I suspect that most of them are asked to understand dozens or hundreds of companies. They can’t get very deep into any concept. There are always a few per company though that do have deeper understanding, but it seems that their insights aren’t free.

Wall Street’s superficiality is an individual investor’s opportunity. Some companies have stories that can be reduced to a sound bite. Conventional wisdom was that Starbucks was just selling coffee. That distillation was incorrect and too reduced. After the company began to succeed, the story was more about the personal indulgence that the coffee embodied. The second sound bite was longer, based on ideas that where presented originally, and finally more correct.

I tend to invest in companies that appear to be more complicated than Starbucks for that very reason. Even the limited time I spend investigating them is more attention than they typically get from the professionals. Currently I am invested in an innovative biotech called Dendreon (DNDN). There is great misunderstanding in the press reports, which is understandable considering the technology; and sad, because it is probably an dramatic improvement in cancer care.

The media’s sound bites about Dendreon focus on it’s prostate cancer vaccine called Provenge. The sound bite is something like, “It costs $93,000 and only extends life four months.” Sounds like there’s no reason to consider if for anyone except the super-rich. Dig a bit deeper though and the data shows that $93,000 is less than some are already paying for treatment; and that the four months are the median, some see no benefit but some live for years. The side effects of chemo are horrific to most, while the side effects for Provenge are usually nil or a mild flu for a few days. And the data are based on treating patients that had advanced cases. It might even work better if administered earlier, or in conjunction with other treatments. Have I gone on too long? Even that slight extension of the description leaves out any description of the technology or other implications.

Many companies have such stories, stories that can be well understood with an hour per week of research. That’s about all I spend on those details. It has benefited me and my portfolio.

I could go on about sound bites and word choices. Any author can because part of writing a book is deciding what’s too many words and what’s too few. But I will pass along one nugget that I’ve considered frequently. The most well-known sound bites are the Ten Commandments. I was raised Catholic so I am very familiar with my listed opportunity for guilt. Imagine the implications though at the distillation of one of those phrases. “Thou shalt not lie.” As I understand it, the original is closer to, “Though shalt not bear false witness against thy neighbor.” Is it then a sin to bear false witness for thy neighbor? How about for a stranger? Maybe all those white lies I did penance for weren’t sins at all. Maybe it pays to remember what sound bites are. They are bites. A full meal requires chewing on things a lot more.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Powerful Wind

Posted on November 17, 2010 by Tom Trimbath

I live on an island. I live near the southern tip of Whidbey Island which sits in Puget Sound like a geographical battleship coming in from the north. Storms usually come from the south, not the west, because the Olympic Mountain range steers the winds. Leaves and anything else that is loose in my neighborhood easily end up in successive neighbors’ yards. The power of the wind is easy to feel. Ironically, it also teaches the utility of electricity because the wind frequently knocks down the power lines; especially when the storms switch and come from the north and tumbles trees leaning the wrong way. Alternative energy is not just an academic concept here. It is necessary to keep many homes livable.

Relative to most Americans, I don’t use much power, at least not directly through the lines. Unless there’s a party going on, there are usually only one or two lights on. Why send photons bouncing around rooms that I’m not in? I even use candles because I finally realized that sometimes I had light on just for ambiance, to put some living light into a shadowy corner. So, when the power goes out, the biggest change is that the screen in front of me goes black or the music stops. Then all I need is enough light to read a book.

Some of my neighbors though are more tied to 60 hz power. Automated generators kick in as soon as a line is cut. The street lights and most of the houses go dark. It could be a peaceful night, a time for quiet contemplation, but gas and diesel generators chug to life, frequently marginally muffled. Most of them are maintaining basic appliances; e.g. refrigerators, hot water, computers, etc.; but some houses are brilliant, every window lit and even the outside lights brightening the siding. They stand out in stark contrast to the more pragmatic and frugal homes.

People love power of all sorts. I doubt that any purposely turn their homes into beacons as billboards advertising their wealth or superiority. I can imagine some doing so as insecurity. Humans’ fear of the dark would have very viable evolutionary roots. Some may be proud to demonstrate that they are the prepared ones, the ones who are responsibly ready for anything. Ignorance probably accounts for many though. They may not be aware that their power is coming from their generator, or they may not even be home. Many in this neighborhood are vacation houses. The generators know no logic and churn out electricity whether anyone is there or not. That may be the most noise heard inside some of those living rooms for months.

The preferred alternative energy source is an internal combustion engine capable of generating a few thousand watts as long as it has enough fuel. I suspect that some are working from propane. I haven’t done a survey. That’d be snooping.

Imagine instead though, that they’d captured that wind from the storm, stored the energy in batteries, and then quietly worked independent of the grid. Nature provides the power that produced the destruction. Find the positive in that negative.

But we can’t. Covenants written in the early sixties dictate that no such structure can be erected. Of course, things have changed since then, but many of the people haven’t. For many, acceptable behaviour was defined in the fifties with a few modifications up through Nixon’s era.

Alternative energy is required to sustain anything like our current standard of living. Within fifty years, a suburban lifestyle that is reminiscent of Happy Days will require infrastructure more like independent farms or innovations and inventions that some consider sci-fi.

The technologies exist, though for now the prices may be steep for folks like me. For a few thousand, portable multi-source generators can be bought that can be wheeled into a driveway. They can capture solar, wind, operate a small generator, or fill a battery. Wind turbines about the size of suburban TV antennas of old could charge batteries, or directly operate a few appliances. There’s plenty of roof space for solar cells, though winter storms happen when there isn’t much light.

Ah, but there are those pesky height restrictions, and neighborhood appearance considerations preventing anyone from erecting turbines.

Some of the biggest problems we face switching away from conventional power plants is simply changing attitudes, showing people that alternatives can actually be more attractive than forever embracing an increasingly anachronistic norm.

As an investor I also look to see the trend within. That’s why I am invested in American Superconductor (AMSC), a big-infrastructure company that dramatically improves powerline efficiency and enables large wind projects. Personal trends are changing slowly enough that utilities may lead the way. I’m also invested in Real Goods Solar (RSOL) because there are individuals who recognize the current situation, and who are in a position and a location that allows them to implement intelligent solutions.

In the meantime, I am going to upload this post without much review. The wind is up and the power may glitch again; and then I may just go for a walk down to the water and watch mere wind pick up tons of water and toss it feet into the air as the waves are driven into the sea wall. Power doesn’t always come through a three prong outlet. Nature delivers it in many ways.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

Age Pays.

Posted on November 13, 2010 by Tom Trimbath

If you let it, aging pays off with unique benefits. As someone said (and I wish I could find the quote), “An old person can remember youth better than a youth can imagine what it’s like to be old.” Age accumulates experiences, especially for those who kept their senses alert while they matured. Experiences, and the knowledge and insights that result, are valuable.

The turbulent times we are going through are painful for many. If you are young, then they are the worst times you’re experienced and there may seem to be no end to the trauma. More years means more chances to have been through other bad times, and for every bad time there was a recovery and a healing. Maybe someday civilization will have a final bout of bad that is terminal, but that is probably ages from now. Even today’s worst case scenarios leave more people alive than the worst consequences of the Cold War’s Mutually Assured Destruction. It won’t be easy avoiding additional trouble and strife. The planet’s too wounded to get better with just a bandage. But more people are becoming aware, and progress is being made.

We name our disastrous periods with greater passion than we do the good times. Aside from the Roaring Twenties, every other recovery period is seen as that, a recovery from what came before, or it is labeled with words like Boom that preview the Bust to come. No wonder it can be hard to find optimists sometimes. Our vocabulary is richer in words for crisis than it is for celebration.

I learned that lesson in college when I read, on my own volition, Dante’s trilogy. Most people know about Dante’s Inferno. Fewer people know that it was the first book in a trilogy: Inferno, Purgatorio, Paradiso. Even fewer understand why stories about hell would be called the Divine Comedy. I don’t remember laughing. I do remember being interested, entertained, and then bored. Hell, Inferno, has rich language. Descriptions of torments are vivid, layered, and convey great incentives for not committing those sins. Purgatorio, was less intense, had good stories, but as I recollect, the stories were moderated to remove themselves from torture which should be in hell and bliss which should be in heaven. They were entertaining without being engrossing. Paradiso was a fast skim. Everything was bliss of various sorts, but it was as if there wasn’t a large enough vocabulary to distinguish one bit of paradise from another. Shortly into I was thinking, “Okay, I get it. It’s Heaven.”

Lately the politicians and the media have become comfortable selling fear. There’s more to talk about. The sound bites are snappier. Maybe it’s easier to play those intense emotions across their faces. They’ve taken this to such extremes that they’ve become the butt of jokes without realizing it. Why else would 215,000 people show up in Washington D.C. to satirize them with Colbert’s March to Keep Fear Alive or openly laugh at them with Stewart’s Rally to Restore Sanity? Even a public display like that wasn’t enough to elicit much of a response. The most prominent politician to publicly approve was Pres. Obama. Despite the campaign rhetoric, he’s the one that “gets it”. The rest still don’t understand that they’re the punch line to a sad joke that they’ve helped write.

It is easiest to understand the absurdity and perversity of today’s political, media and consequentially financial climates by having lived through previous absurdities and perversities. It is hard to imagine how the McCarthy Era happened slightly before my time. In retrospect it has been largely forgotten except to become material or a very good, but uncommon movie like “Good Night, and Good Luck“. Every decade includes bizarre behaviour. The Sixties certainly weren’t normal. The Seventies were a time to survive the ugly bits that Nixon embodied. The Eighties were marked by wild finances, a crash in 1987, and the divisive politics of the Reagan Era. The Nineties are the closest we’ve had to a recovery time, and that decade is known for it’s bubble that was about to pop. The Dismal Decade was defined by the one-day tragedy of 9/11, but in retrospect it may be better identified with our extreme reaction. Trillions of dollars spent for a real threat, but one that was much smaller than two world wars or the threat of mutual nuclear annihilation.

See? I did it too. It is too easy to dwell in the bad. But look at what happened in the meantime. Many of our problems now exist because for billions of people life was increasingly better as the decades went by. Life expectancy, infant survivability, race relations, sexual equality, information dissemination, have all improved dramatically. Ignoring the headlines and the politicians while becoming more aware of your own experiences may be a road to a happier life.

I remind myself of this because I’ve been known to have bad days. My portfolio isn’t as sprightly as I’d like. My health has a curious issue or two. I’d rather not be single. But I’ve also learned to appreciate that where I am is beautiful, that I am healthy enough to walk across Scotland, and that I have plenty of friends. My portfolio is even comprised of companies that are healthier than their stocks, which suggests a nice improvement to my net worth eventually.

Those few dozen positive words after hundreds of the ones about absurdities is typical. I know that. I’ve lived long enough to have seen it many times. And I know that despite the fear and worry, things are getting better. I’m glad that I’m not twenty and wondering if this is all there will ever be.

And given enough time, I expect to see my portfolio improving. That’s one place where I really know that aging pays.

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

More Than Stocks

Posted on November 10, 2010 by Tom Trimbath

The world does not revolve around stocks. I talk about them because they are a reasonable way to get from dreaming to living, but there are other ways to do accomplish that middle step of dream, invest, live.

I am not an expert about stocks and know even less about other ways to invest, but I do know that the investment world is enormous. There are millions of people out there trying to get their money to make them more money, some for need, some for greed. I’ve looked at the various investment vehicles, considered my comfort zones and ended up with stocks. Others make the same assessment and get different answers. That’s good. I don’t expect to be like everyone else, and don’t expect everyone else to be like me. That would be boring.

Do you like pretty things? You don’t have to invest in dull pieces of paper or arrangements of electrons. Gold, silver and diamonds are valid investments. You can own them, hold them, wear them, or let surrogates store them. The nice thing about them is that they have actual value. They can’t go bankrupt because someone cooked the books. The worst that happens to gold is that it melts. Silver will tarnish a bit. Diamonds are tough, but they are actually fragile bits of fancy coal; but they also have the greatest sparkle. It is possible to make money with them. The price of gold has risen dramatically, about four-fold, since the internet bubble burst. It is also possible to lose money, but the only way the value goes to zero is if someone steals it.

Do you like regular returns with something dull but safe? Annuities and bonds can pay out very regular rates of return. Investing becomes about as free from gambling as possible, but the returns are much smaller too. Someone is still taking the risk with the money, and they should pay the annuity no matter what, but they do so because they get to enjoy the benefits of any extra money made on the investment. But of course they would never risk the money and would always put it in safe places. Well, there are the occasional defaults, bits of bad luck, and rare irresponsible actions. Nothing is perfect. They are the most worry-free. Any worry is the worry you carry anyway.

Someday the words real estate and investment won’t seem like contrary concepts. People need places to live. Every year people find reasons to move that have nothing to do with the real estate market. Of all the houses I’ve owned, I always bought or sold because I wanted to, not because of market conditions. I’m not the only one. Such moves create demand and move supply. Many people have been sitting still, waiting for the market to improve. The market will improve when they are no longer sitting still. I think the recovery is inevitable because the forces that affect peoples’ lives are inexorable. Congratulations to anyone who was able to buy now without having to sell first. They will be the role models for proving yet again that real estate can be an investment. That may take a few months, years, or decades though. But hey, we all need a place to live.

There is plenty of variety within the investment world. I may not buy gold, but I think the other precious metals are interesting (e.g. platinum, etc.), especially the ones needed for industry. I don’t buy bonds or steer towards annuities, but am interested in eventually considering corporate bonds and such esoteric items like stock-convertible bonds. As for real estate, I’ve seen what it’s like to be a landlord. There’s good and bad there, but I doubt that I’d ever do that again unless I hired a trustworthy, competent, property manager.

Investing is a personal decision. While I have arguments against doing certain things, that’s only me. Everyone gets to make their own choices. I know people for whom commercial real estate is best, and I hope they aren’t carrying a lot of debt now. There are probably some very good deals out there for folks with cash, or at least good financing and patience. I know others who literally bury their wealth, or at least part of it, because of emotional need. I don’t recommend that, but if it helps them get through a personal crisis, maybe the potential loss is cheaper than counseling. Out of seven billion people that will be true for someone.

I think the best investment is in yourself. Putting money aside so it can grow is great for making money with minimal effort because it frees up time, which is the most valuable resource. But, at least in America, investing in your own development, whether that is academic, spiritual, or entrepreneurial, can be the most direct payoff. I invest almost all of my cash into stocks. They are easy to buy, store, and sell; can have great growth, and they match my interests and risk tolerance. But I invest more of my time in other aspects of my life; my writing, my books, my photos, my classes, and whatever else intuition suggests. And of course, some investments are totally non-monetary; the time spent dancing, socializing, or considering the various aspects of this world. There’s definitely more to life than stocks.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Passion People

Posted on November 7, 2010 by Tom Trimbath

Yesterday I taught a class. That’s a great indicator that I learned something. I taught a class called Modern Self-Publishing, the publishing version of the iTunes or indie movies, where traditional publishing is being challenged and changed by digital technology. You would have heard more about the class, but I was busy walking across Scotland when I normally would be telling the world about an upcoming class. (Thanks to WIWA for spreading the news.) Besides talking about challenges to conventional institutions, it is always fun teaching the class because of the people that attend it. They have stories to tell and they are going to make sure the world gets to hear them.

I don’t consider myself an expert. I’ve taught the class six times, the last five by request, so I must have something useful to say; but the industry and technology are changing so rapidly that a proper comprehensive study would take so much time that there’d be no time left for writing. I’ve self-published eight books (five narratives, three photo essays) in eight years, so there’s little time to conduct deep research. I do, however, have a bunch of experience. I guess that’s worth something. If nothing else, it proves that I have a lot to say.

The revolution within publishing is just another segment of the greater digital revolution happening across our cultures. The class took three hours to describe the general aspects with a two hour workshop added in the afternoon. I won’t try to cram all of those details into this post. If you want that story, maybe you can attend the next time the class is held. Maybe you can even organize it. Call me.

One of the things I enjoy about teaching the class, is meeting the people. People that sign up for such a class are active, energetic, and passionate, even the quiet ones. Whether they’ve already tried the traditional publishing route, or have decided to independently step into controlling their destiny, they’ve reached a point where they want an outlet for their message, information, or creativity. Every class has had non-fiction and fiction, new writers and established authors, poets, illustrators, engineers, care-givers, and innovators. I get to meet them all.

The digital revolution is more than the creative outlets of music, movies and books. It is also happening in engineering design, community activism, and even industries like farming. Engineers can rely on simulated experiments instead of hazardous real-world testing. I suspect the life-expectancy of pilots has risen in the last few decades, though there are fewer jobs there too. Activists relied on pamphlets and brochures handed out on street corners, but can now organize flash demonstrations via Twitter. Farmers used their senses, experience and luck to know when and what to plant and harvest. They continue to do that, but now they can also add information from space imagery, distributed sensors, and automated controls.

I’ll just speak to the rocket science part because of my background. Why else is it possible for a space industry to begin to exist outside of government budgets? The computational tools for design, testing, and pilot training have eliminated the need for much of the dangerous and sometimes necessarily destructive testing of prototype vehicles. Rockets go boom. That’s a bad thing for the neighborhood and a terrible thing if you’re the pilot strapped to the top of it. Many more designs can tried and tested before anyone has to risk their life to a vehicle that’s never flown before.

The digital revolution has made it’s most obvious progress in entertainment and culture. The invention of entertainment may even be the way to define the beginning of human civilization. But many of the institutions that we are familiar with are only as old as the Industrial Revolution. Relatively speaking, they haven’t been around very long. They may be that much more susceptible to change. Good.

Many of the world’s problems were spawned by the Industrial Revolution’s successes. In a very short time we’ve seen great extensions to life spans and a great increase in population. Comfort and security have improved while environments are suffering. There’s been good and bad.

I am an optimist, at least in the long term, and I am glad to see the sweep of the Digital Revolution. It is happening more quickly and more pervasively than any previous revolution, and to solve today’s problems it must move quickly. I suspect it will.

The people that showed up for yesterday’s class weren’t sitting still. Even if their bodies didn’t move in the seats, their questions proved that their minds were active. That same energy is pouring through every aspect of life. I don’t look for the changes in the old institutions. The big publishing houses, Hollywood, NASA, are changing, and the media are watching them, but they aren’t keeping up with the people that are going to make the biggest differences. I’m encouraged because I’m watching us. We’re passionate people and we’re heading the right way. Thank you.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged | Leave a comment

Earnings. Surprise!

Posted on November 3, 2010 by Tom Trimbath

The following paragraph is brought to you with faked fear.
“Oh no! The economy is crumbling. Financial ruin is upon us all. The American Dream is dead.”
Okay, that’s enough of that for a while.

Headlines continue to support Stephen Colbert’s “Keep Fear Alive” attitude, but of course, Mr. Colbert was being satirical. While there are headlines about rising corporate profits, purchases, mergers and acquisitions, the news is treated more as a fluke than a trend. The most prominent headlines are reserved for worry and woe, drama and trauma. I hear more about double dip recessions than I do about economic recoveries. Despite the recent market rise, I believe the majority of the investment community continues to live in fear (while receiving very healthy compensation packages).

The saddest part for me is that there is drama and trauma out there, but it is on a personal level. Unemployment is still high. Foreclosures continue. Despite corporate profits, hiring is only sluggishly turning. Housing prices may have bottomed, but many still haven’t sold theirs, or can’t find financing to renovate or buy. I’d like to see more stories about such individuals, not to emphasize woe, but to focus efforts on improving the lives of people rather than institutions.

The good news is that this has happened before. Economies go through cycles, whether that is inherent, or merely a reflection that we are an immature species, economies rise and fall. This drop was significant, but it looks like we are coming out of it. One sign I’ve seen before is that good news is treated as real but with a doubt of its pervasiveness or sustainability. We may have stepped past the worst for another reason. Companies with good earnings are being rewarded with rising stock prices.

In the worst of times, no news is good enough. As things improve, good news becomes increasingly acknowledged, but only marginally at first. At some point a improvement is reflected in an equally large gain. Eventually people get confident and begin anticipating good news and acting on that anticipation. At the peak, giddiness kicks in, fear is forgotten and bad news is ignored, treated as a fluke.

That paragraph can apply to markets, but also relationships, personal projects, plans and dreams.

If we are wise, cycles change us. I think this cycle is changing the world view of many, but not all. A large chunk of the population will breathe a sign of relief and return to their old ways: not worrying about limited resources, debt levels, conspicuous consumption, or the rest of the world. Fortunately, many are breathing a sign of relief for two reasons. They’ve made it through some bad times, and they’ve seen how they lead a better life with some simple changes.

I am hearing more about people getting rid of credit cards, televisions, cars, and McMansions. People are actually walking, bicycling, gardening, socializing, volunteering, and getting by with less. We humans don’t change in unison. Our societies have always shifted in groups and various waves, some advancing, some resisting, some unaware or unconcerned about where everyone else is going. One of the nice things about America is that we can pick our own group, make one up, or head out alone. We can live our lives as we wish, within limits. Fortunately those limits aren’t as limiting here as elsewhere.

Within the world of the stock market, this is earnings season, the time when the data quantifies the speculations. American Superconductor (AMSC) did very well thanks to the interest in alternative energies and increased power efficiencies. Microvision (MVIS) didn’t have the good news that people expected, and a lack of good news was bad for the stock. By the end of the week I’ll know more about Dendreon (DNDN), Gaiam (GAIA), and Real Goods Solar (RSOL). Last quarter’s doubts and uncertainties will be exchanged for modified versions of next quarter’s speculations.

Whether it is the market, the economy, our impact on our environment, or aspects of individuals’ personal lives, the world is dynamic. The stories of today are not static. Change is inevitable. Some things move on the pace of tectonic plates, incredibly slow with abrupt jolts. Most things move more fluidly. I think the tide has already started coming back in. Some boats are lifted. Many are still stuck on the mud. A bit of patience can make a big difference.

Eventually we’ll get back to the point where good news is not a surprise. One thing’s or sure. We’ve earned it.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Getting Over It

Posted on October 30, 2010 by Tom Trimbath

Cough, sneeze, hack, sniffle, it’s messy and noisy, and that’s how I know that I am getting better. My cold has gone from the “sleep the day away” phase to the phase where my head is clearer and I can get more done, but my symptoms are more noticeable. I wonder if that’s what’s happening in our world now. It was probably at its sickest when we weren’t quite sure what was going on, but now, the symptoms we are experiencing may be a healthy, though uncomfortable, sign of recovery.

There is enough bad news out there to supply every politician and pundit. They are the wealthy ones, with plenty of resources for messages of fear and accusation. It’s always the other side’s fault. Three hundred million cheers for Stewart and Colbert’s “Rally to Restore Sanity and/or Fear“, seriously funny satire. Finally voices that know that things have gone too far, and that the best way out may be through laughter. Because, while the pundits and politicians have taken worrisome words to extreme levels, they’ve also finally taken it so far that reasonable folks can find a lot to laugh at. Maybe now the laughter will have the bigger megaphone.

Most aspects of life take time. Few things happen suddenly. Even those things that seem sudden, usually aren’t instantaneous. They might be quick, but even then they happen within environments that modify timing and impact. Our economy seemed to implode suddenly, but years of deregulation and irresponsibility created the instability that wasn’t sustainable. We’ve given the extremists increasingly more attention, possibly just because we liked the drama and trauma. Editors fed that cycle because they gave us what they saw we wanted. Advertisers funded it because they follow the crowds and play to our emotional rather than our rational selves. Rational people are less likely to go into debt to buy a bauble.

Within the stock markets, the timing of good news or bad is a way to track whether the investors are bullish or bearish. In a bull market, when expectations are high, the anticipation of good news drives the stock price up before the actual announcement. That may sound like a foreign concept, but it happened famously ten years ago. Now, people are bearish. Anticipated bad news can drive down the stock price. The news is priced into the stock, which should mean it won’t go down when the news hits, but expectations are so dismal that prices can drop twice.

In a rational world, things wouldn’t go to extremes as often. A tragedy happened nine years ago, and our society headed off not knowing where or when to stop. But I think we are starting to ask ourselves, “Do we need to be where we are?”. That’s a good sign. Many people are stopping after years of running blindly.

Just like when the body gets over a cold, the recovery can be noisy and messy. Emotionally, many people are questioning themselves, which can be painful; but I’m glad to see that for many it is healthily happening with laughter. Economically, individuals are being wiser with their money, and many institutions are either learning or paying for their errors. Unfortunately, there are more than a sniffle’s worth of foreclosures and unemployed people. The stock markets, which usually anticipate trends aren’t doing as good of a job looking ahead. I think that’s because this time the market is affected by institutions that are in shock. Their world view, and their positions of power, were challenged for the first time in decades.

Personally, I’ve taken time to consider many aspects of my life. A three-week walk across Scotland is good for introspection. I don’t know if the politicians, pundits, advertisers, and editors will pull back from their extremes; but, I know they are more likely to move if we shift our attention. As for the institutions, even with crumbled foundations they continue to control enormous power. I suspect a government of, by, and for the people could challenge them, but I have my doubts that a large enough challenge will be made. In the meantime, my portfolio is down, but I suspect it also means that there are more opportunities for the rest of us. I am heartened by the fact that most of my investments are backed by companies with good news, and that many of them are about to report earnings. For many reasons, I’ll be watching to see how the stocks move if good news is announced.

Good news is good news, nothing more or less. It shouldn’t be ignored, or used to cover ills. Unemployment is high, but leveling, and even decreasing in some places. GDP is low but positive. Housing starts are up in many places. Inflation is very low. Corporate profits are up. Some things aren’t going to turn around so quickly. Global climate change operates on decades and centuries, not news or election cycles. Some elements of injustice may always be with us. But to me, the world is looking better.

And I will be better too. First I’ll blow my nose and then I’ll go for a run, because I know the long term effects are even better than the short term high; then maybe a cup of tea with a lot of honey in it. Getting better doesn’t have to mean waiting and it doesn’t have to hurt.

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

When’s It Going Up?

Posted on October 27, 2010 by Tom Trimbath

That’s a familiar refrain. “When’s that stock going to go up?” I hear it a lot, internally and externally. Within my portfolio, and the portfolio of many that I know, the poster child for that question is MVIS, Microvision; the stock that represents the company that represents a massively disruptive technology and the potential for impressive profits that have yet to be realized. The company reports earnings on Monday, November 1st.

One of my friends was kind enough to review my book before I sent it off to the publisher. It didn’t describe his style of investing, which I appreciated because he could take a larger view of the text. Listening to him told me if I got anywhere close to getting across my intent. I worried that it would come across as a “Get rich quick” scheme, which would be wrong in many ways. He assured me that to him is was more like, “Get rich slow”, and I can’t remember if he added my frequent waffle-word, maybe.

Get rich slow, maybe. Investing happens so people can have more money than they started with. I am a long term investor, so it is common for my investments to languish a long time before they move. And nothing is certain in life, so maybe captures the reality of risk in anything.

Despite the possibility of making money eventually, patience can wear thin, and in some case can vanish entirely. Everyone has various reserves of patience. For some, patience would fit in a teacup. Others would need olympic swimming pools. Microvision has quite a few investors looking at dry buckets and hoping for rain.

For those who haven’t heard of Microvision, don’t be surprised. The company is small (less than 200 employees) and is based on a product and technology that also emphasizes the small (MEMS, micro-electro-mechanical-systems, in their case, mirrors on chips). Of course, companies making small things can become quite large. Intel fits that description. Intel made chips that moved electrons. Microvision makes chips that move photons. If successful, Microvision can affect, and sell into, most video display and scanning markets. They can’t do everything, but they are aimed at large slices of very large global markets. The question is, can they succeed?

I’ve held the stock for over a decade. Its high was back in the internet bubble days at about $60. I bought a few shares above $30. Today the shares have been diluted ten-fold and the stock is trading at about $2. My patience for them has been dwindling for years. And yet, I’ve bought more.

The story of Microvision will be a book someday, if they succeed. They’ve already developed a DVD-quality projector that fits in a pocket. Supposedly, it will fit into a cell phone with a few months, oops, a couple of years. Sometime around there it should also fit into a pair of glasses. I bought one of the early pocket models (ShowWX). It has about the same level of quality as the first Macintosh that I bought back in the mid-eighties; very cool but lacking some key functions. There’s hope.

I know quite a few folks that bought MVIS stock in the last few years. Many of them have many more shares than me. That’s gutsy, but also more easily done. I’ve been buying shares over the years, as next year continually seemed to be the year they would broke through into success. My friends have been buying down in the single dollar digits. Smart, if it works. I bought higher and lower, which might be smart enough. If it succeeds, they’ll be rich. I’ll be rich enough, if it happens soon enough.

Apple stock (AAPL) seems like a no-brainer when it comes to investments. They even used it as an example in the movie, “Forrest Gump”. The early investors, the pre-IPO investors did well, but look at the stock up until 1998. It barely moved over 15 years. It was expected to die, go bankrupt, and become a bit of computer age folklore. From 1998 until now the stock has risen 3,350%. It took about 15 years for Apple to mature enough to establish itself and to begin generating impressive revenues; and it happened from unexpected avenues like iTunes.

I don’t know what will happen to Microvision and MVIS. I do know that this year they finally began shipping a commercially viable product, which doesn’t seem to have caught on. I also know that they have generated backlogs of orders that I think eclipse any prior year’s revenues. According to them, they are operating at full speed but can’t say anything because of their customer’s non-disclosure agreements. Those of us who can recall prior agreements with Honda and NCR pay less credence to assurances.

In 2006, the CEO expected “Super Bowl” style success in four years. In 2007, he said that 2009 would be the Super Bowl year. In 2009, he thought it might be in 2010. This year he said that a Super Bowl year will require a particular type of laser in commercial quantities. From what I’ve read, that should be available in 2011.

Good. Then maybe the stock will go up. Of course, it could go up with this earnings report, or a product announcement, or a laser announcement, or before, or after, or – sigh. Anyone have some patience I can borrow?

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , | Leave a comment