Passion People

Posted on November 7, 2010 by Tom Trimbath

Yesterday I taught a class. That’s a great indicator that I learned something. I taught a class called Modern Self-Publishing, the publishing version of the iTunes or indie movies, where traditional publishing is being challenged and changed by digital technology. You would have heard more about the class, but I was busy walking across Scotland when I normally would be telling the world about an upcoming class. (Thanks to WIWA for spreading the news.) Besides talking about challenges to conventional institutions, it is always fun teaching the class because of the people that attend it. They have stories to tell and they are going to make sure the world gets to hear them.

I don’t consider myself an expert. I’ve taught the class six times, the last five by request, so I must have something useful to say; but the industry and technology are changing so rapidly that a proper comprehensive study would take so much time that there’d be no time left for writing. I’ve self-published eight books (five narratives, three photo essays) in eight years, so there’s little time to conduct deep research. I do, however, have a bunch of experience. I guess that’s worth something. If nothing else, it proves that I have a lot to say.

The revolution within publishing is just another segment of the greater digital revolution happening across our cultures. The class took three hours to describe the general aspects with a two hour workshop added in the afternoon. I won’t try to cram all of those details into this post. If you want that story, maybe you can attend the next time the class is held. Maybe you can even organize it. Call me.

One of the things I enjoy about teaching the class, is meeting the people. People that sign up for such a class are active, energetic, and passionate, even the quiet ones. Whether they’ve already tried the traditional publishing route, or have decided to independently step into controlling their destiny, they’ve reached a point where they want an outlet for their message, information, or creativity. Every class has had non-fiction and fiction, new writers and established authors, poets, illustrators, engineers, care-givers, and innovators. I get to meet them all.

The digital revolution is more than the creative outlets of music, movies and books. It is also happening in engineering design, community activism, and even industries like farming. Engineers can rely on simulated experiments instead of hazardous real-world testing. I suspect the life-expectancy of pilots has risen in the last few decades, though there are fewer jobs there too. Activists relied on pamphlets and brochures handed out on street corners, but can now organize flash demonstrations via Twitter. Farmers used their senses, experience and luck to know when and what to plant and harvest. They continue to do that, but now they can also add information from space imagery, distributed sensors, and automated controls.

I’ll just speak to the rocket science part because of my background. Why else is it possible for a space industry to begin to exist outside of government budgets? The computational tools for design, testing, and pilot training have eliminated the need for much of the dangerous and sometimes necessarily destructive testing of prototype vehicles. Rockets go boom. That’s a bad thing for the neighborhood and a terrible thing if you’re the pilot strapped to the top of it. Many more designs can tried and tested before anyone has to risk their life to a vehicle that’s never flown before.

The digital revolution has made it’s most obvious progress in entertainment and culture. The invention of entertainment may even be the way to define the beginning of human civilization. But many of the institutions that we are familiar with are only as old as the Industrial Revolution. Relatively speaking, they haven’t been around very long. They may be that much more susceptible to change. Good.

Many of the world’s problems were spawned by the Industrial Revolution’s successes. In a very short time we’ve seen great extensions to life spans and a great increase in population. Comfort and security have improved while environments are suffering. There’s been good and bad.

I am an optimist, at least in the long term, and I am glad to see the sweep of the Digital Revolution. It is happening more quickly and more pervasively than any previous revolution, and to solve today’s problems it must move quickly. I suspect it will.

The people that showed up for yesterday’s class weren’t sitting still. Even if their bodies didn’t move in the seats, their questions proved that their minds were active. That same energy is pouring through every aspect of life. I don’t look for the changes in the old institutions. The big publishing houses, Hollywood, NASA, are changing, and the media are watching them, but they aren’t keeping up with the people that are going to make the biggest differences. I’m encouraged because I’m watching us. We’re passionate people and we’re heading the right way. Thank you.

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Earnings. Surprise!

Posted on November 3, 2010 by Tom Trimbath

The following paragraph is brought to you with faked fear.
“Oh no! The economy is crumbling. Financial ruin is upon us all. The American Dream is dead.”
Okay, that’s enough of that for a while.

Headlines continue to support Stephen Colbert’s “Keep Fear Alive” attitude, but of course, Mr. Colbert was being satirical. While there are headlines about rising corporate profits, purchases, mergers and acquisitions, the news is treated more as a fluke than a trend. The most prominent headlines are reserved for worry and woe, drama and trauma. I hear more about double dip recessions than I do about economic recoveries. Despite the recent market rise, I believe the majority of the investment community continues to live in fear (while receiving very healthy compensation packages).

The saddest part for me is that there is drama and trauma out there, but it is on a personal level. Unemployment is still high. Foreclosures continue. Despite corporate profits, hiring is only sluggishly turning. Housing prices may have bottomed, but many still haven’t sold theirs, or can’t find financing to renovate or buy. I’d like to see more stories about such individuals, not to emphasize woe, but to focus efforts on improving the lives of people rather than institutions.

The good news is that this has happened before. Economies go through cycles, whether that is inherent, or merely a reflection that we are an immature species, economies rise and fall. This drop was significant, but it looks like we are coming out of it. One sign I’ve seen before is that good news is treated as real but with a doubt of its pervasiveness or sustainability. We may have stepped past the worst for another reason. Companies with good earnings are being rewarded with rising stock prices.

In the worst of times, no news is good enough. As things improve, good news becomes increasingly acknowledged, but only marginally at first. At some point a improvement is reflected in an equally large gain. Eventually people get confident and begin anticipating good news and acting on that anticipation. At the peak, giddiness kicks in, fear is forgotten and bad news is ignored, treated as a fluke.

That paragraph can apply to markets, but also relationships, personal projects, plans and dreams.

If we are wise, cycles change us. I think this cycle is changing the world view of many, but not all. A large chunk of the population will breathe a sign of relief and return to their old ways: not worrying about limited resources, debt levels, conspicuous consumption, or the rest of the world. Fortunately, many are breathing a sign of relief for two reasons. They’ve made it through some bad times, and they’ve seen how they lead a better life with some simple changes.

I am hearing more about people getting rid of credit cards, televisions, cars, and McMansions. People are actually walking, bicycling, gardening, socializing, volunteering, and getting by with less. We humans don’t change in unison. Our societies have always shifted in groups and various waves, some advancing, some resisting, some unaware or unconcerned about where everyone else is going. One of the nice things about America is that we can pick our own group, make one up, or head out alone. We can live our lives as we wish, within limits. Fortunately those limits aren’t as limiting here as elsewhere.

Within the world of the stock market, this is earnings season, the time when the data quantifies the speculations. American Superconductor (AMSC) did very well thanks to the interest in alternative energies and increased power efficiencies. Microvision (MVIS) didn’t have the good news that people expected, and a lack of good news was bad for the stock. By the end of the week I’ll know more about Dendreon (DNDN), Gaiam (GAIA), and Real Goods Solar (RSOL). Last quarter’s doubts and uncertainties will be exchanged for modified versions of next quarter’s speculations.

Whether it is the market, the economy, our impact on our environment, or aspects of individuals’ personal lives, the world is dynamic. The stories of today are not static. Change is inevitable. Some things move on the pace of tectonic plates, incredibly slow with abrupt jolts. Most things move more fluidly. I think the tide has already started coming back in. Some boats are lifted. Many are still stuck on the mud. A bit of patience can make a big difference.

Eventually we’ll get back to the point where good news is not a surprise. One thing’s or sure. We’ve earned it.

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Getting Over It

Posted on October 30, 2010 by Tom Trimbath

Cough, sneeze, hack, sniffle, it’s messy and noisy, and that’s how I know that I am getting better. My cold has gone from the “sleep the day away” phase to the phase where my head is clearer and I can get more done, but my symptoms are more noticeable. I wonder if that’s what’s happening in our world now. It was probably at its sickest when we weren’t quite sure what was going on, but now, the symptoms we are experiencing may be a healthy, though uncomfortable, sign of recovery.

There is enough bad news out there to supply every politician and pundit. They are the wealthy ones, with plenty of resources for messages of fear and accusation. It’s always the other side’s fault. Three hundred million cheers for Stewart and Colbert’s “Rally to Restore Sanity and/or Fear“, seriously funny satire. Finally voices that know that things have gone too far, and that the best way out may be through laughter. Because, while the pundits and politicians have taken worrisome words to extreme levels, they’ve also finally taken it so far that reasonable folks can find a lot to laugh at. Maybe now the laughter will have the bigger megaphone.

Most aspects of life take time. Few things happen suddenly. Even those things that seem sudden, usually aren’t instantaneous. They might be quick, but even then they happen within environments that modify timing and impact. Our economy seemed to implode suddenly, but years of deregulation and irresponsibility created the instability that wasn’t sustainable. We’ve given the extremists increasingly more attention, possibly just because we liked the drama and trauma. Editors fed that cycle because they gave us what they saw we wanted. Advertisers funded it because they follow the crowds and play to our emotional rather than our rational selves. Rational people are less likely to go into debt to buy a bauble.

Within the stock markets, the timing of good news or bad is a way to track whether the investors are bullish or bearish. In a bull market, when expectations are high, the anticipation of good news drives the stock price up before the actual announcement. That may sound like a foreign concept, but it happened famously ten years ago. Now, people are bearish. Anticipated bad news can drive down the stock price. The news is priced into the stock, which should mean it won’t go down when the news hits, but expectations are so dismal that prices can drop twice.

In a rational world, things wouldn’t go to extremes as often. A tragedy happened nine years ago, and our society headed off not knowing where or when to stop. But I think we are starting to ask ourselves, “Do we need to be where we are?”. That’s a good sign. Many people are stopping after years of running blindly.

Just like when the body gets over a cold, the recovery can be noisy and messy. Emotionally, many people are questioning themselves, which can be painful; but I’m glad to see that for many it is healthily happening with laughter. Economically, individuals are being wiser with their money, and many institutions are either learning or paying for their errors. Unfortunately, there are more than a sniffle’s worth of foreclosures and unemployed people. The stock markets, which usually anticipate trends aren’t doing as good of a job looking ahead. I think that’s because this time the market is affected by institutions that are in shock. Their world view, and their positions of power, were challenged for the first time in decades.

Personally, I’ve taken time to consider many aspects of my life. A three-week walk across Scotland is good for introspection. I don’t know if the politicians, pundits, advertisers, and editors will pull back from their extremes; but, I know they are more likely to move if we shift our attention. As for the institutions, even with crumbled foundations they continue to control enormous power. I suspect a government of, by, and for the people could challenge them, but I have my doubts that a large enough challenge will be made. In the meantime, my portfolio is down, but I suspect it also means that there are more opportunities for the rest of us. I am heartened by the fact that most of my investments are backed by companies with good news, and that many of them are about to report earnings. For many reasons, I’ll be watching to see how the stocks move if good news is announced.

Good news is good news, nothing more or less. It shouldn’t be ignored, or used to cover ills. Unemployment is high, but leveling, and even decreasing in some places. GDP is low but positive. Housing starts are up in many places. Inflation is very low. Corporate profits are up. Some things aren’t going to turn around so quickly. Global climate change operates on decades and centuries, not news or election cycles. Some elements of injustice may always be with us. But to me, the world is looking better.

And I will be better too. First I’ll blow my nose and then I’ll go for a run, because I know the long term effects are even better than the short term high; then maybe a cup of tea with a lot of honey in it. Getting better doesn’t have to mean waiting and it doesn’t have to hurt.

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When’s It Going Up?

Posted on October 27, 2010 by Tom Trimbath

That’s a familiar refrain. “When’s that stock going to go up?” I hear it a lot, internally and externally. Within my portfolio, and the portfolio of many that I know, the poster child for that question is MVIS, Microvision; the stock that represents the company that represents a massively disruptive technology and the potential for impressive profits that have yet to be realized. The company reports earnings on Monday, November 1st.

One of my friends was kind enough to review my book before I sent it off to the publisher. It didn’t describe his style of investing, which I appreciated because he could take a larger view of the text. Listening to him told me if I got anywhere close to getting across my intent. I worried that it would come across as a “Get rich quick” scheme, which would be wrong in many ways. He assured me that to him is was more like, “Get rich slow”, and I can’t remember if he added my frequent waffle-word, maybe.

Get rich slow, maybe. Investing happens so people can have more money than they started with. I am a long term investor, so it is common for my investments to languish a long time before they move. And nothing is certain in life, so maybe captures the reality of risk in anything.

Despite the possibility of making money eventually, patience can wear thin, and in some case can vanish entirely. Everyone has various reserves of patience. For some, patience would fit in a teacup. Others would need olympic swimming pools. Microvision has quite a few investors looking at dry buckets and hoping for rain.

For those who haven’t heard of Microvision, don’t be surprised. The company is small (less than 200 employees) and is based on a product and technology that also emphasizes the small (MEMS, micro-electro-mechanical-systems, in their case, mirrors on chips). Of course, companies making small things can become quite large. Intel fits that description. Intel made chips that moved electrons. Microvision makes chips that move photons. If successful, Microvision can affect, and sell into, most video display and scanning markets. They can’t do everything, but they are aimed at large slices of very large global markets. The question is, can they succeed?

I’ve held the stock for over a decade. Its high was back in the internet bubble days at about $60. I bought a few shares above $30. Today the shares have been diluted ten-fold and the stock is trading at about $2. My patience for them has been dwindling for years. And yet, I’ve bought more.

The story of Microvision will be a book someday, if they succeed. They’ve already developed a DVD-quality projector that fits in a pocket. Supposedly, it will fit into a cell phone with a few months, oops, a couple of years. Sometime around there it should also fit into a pair of glasses. I bought one of the early pocket models (ShowWX). It has about the same level of quality as the first Macintosh that I bought back in the mid-eighties; very cool but lacking some key functions. There’s hope.

I know quite a few folks that bought MVIS stock in the last few years. Many of them have many more shares than me. That’s gutsy, but also more easily done. I’ve been buying shares over the years, as next year continually seemed to be the year they would broke through into success. My friends have been buying down in the single dollar digits. Smart, if it works. I bought higher and lower, which might be smart enough. If it succeeds, they’ll be rich. I’ll be rich enough, if it happens soon enough.

Apple stock (AAPL) seems like a no-brainer when it comes to investments. They even used it as an example in the movie, “Forrest Gump”. The early investors, the pre-IPO investors did well, but look at the stock up until 1998. It barely moved over 15 years. It was expected to die, go bankrupt, and become a bit of computer age folklore. From 1998 until now the stock has risen 3,350%. It took about 15 years for Apple to mature enough to establish itself and to begin generating impressive revenues; and it happened from unexpected avenues like iTunes.

I don’t know what will happen to Microvision and MVIS. I do know that this year they finally began shipping a commercially viable product, which doesn’t seem to have caught on. I also know that they have generated backlogs of orders that I think eclipse any prior year’s revenues. According to them, they are operating at full speed but can’t say anything because of their customer’s non-disclosure agreements. Those of us who can recall prior agreements with Honda and NCR pay less credence to assurances.

In 2006, the CEO expected “Super Bowl” style success in four years. In 2007, he said that 2009 would be the Super Bowl year. In 2009, he thought it might be in 2010. This year he said that a Super Bowl year will require a particular type of laser in commercial quantities. From what I’ve read, that should be available in 2011.

Good. Then maybe the stock will go up. Of course, it could go up with this earnings report, or a product announcement, or a laser announcement, or before, or after, or – sigh. Anyone have some patience I can borrow?

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Listen to Them

Posted on October 23, 2010 by Tom Trimbath

When times are good it is easy to listen to yourself. When things are going well for me, I contort my arms around to pat myself on my back. When things are going poorly, it is too easy to twist that pat around into a punch, hitting myself for not anticipating every possibility. I don’t do that as much as I did years ago, but friends know where to look for the occasional self-inflicted bruise. Lately I am going back to various founts of wisdom that have been through worse and come out much the better.

For anyone that’s read my book (Dream. Invest. Live.) and memorized it (Ha! Don’t think I expect that!) the following names will be familiar: Peter Lynch, Warren Buffett, Louis Rukeyser, and the Fools. Their wisdoms have considerable overlap, and they also don’t completely agree, but they all have advice that heartens me when the portfolio is low.

Peter Lynch, one of the most successful fund managers and also a good author, is well known for telling people to trust their knowledge and experience when investing in stocks. Consumers create trends, so any shopper has the opportunity to spot good companies before the analysts have done any research. As for down times,

“I’ve found that when the market’s going down and you buy funds wisely, at some point in the future you will be happy. You won’t get there by reading ‘Now is the time to buy.'”

I took that advice and substituted “stocks” for “funds”, which is logical because it is easier for me to track a company and its stock rather than a fund and its manager. It also makes sense that he said that about funds. He was a fund manager. He was in the mutual fund business. And he produced stellar returns.

Louis Rukeyser passed away a few years ago. For decades he hosted a finance show on PBS called Wall Street Week. It was fun. It was entertaining. he made sure the guests and pundits spoke English instead of economics. He was on the other side of the interview after the internet bubble burst and investors were fleeing the markets. CNBC had him on with some other panelists who were debating where the market was going. Was it going to crash, stagnate, or bounce back? Most of the panelists launched into various theories, which were really speculations. There wasn’t much “theory” behind them except their opinions, but it made for a lively show. And then Louis spoke. He had his own spin on Peter Lynch’s comment which went something like this (sorry I can’t find the quote),

“The people who are investing now, are the people who will be rich ten years from now.”

After that comment I quit listening to the booyah pundits. (By the way, I think it would be more correct to switch Louis’ comment to say that the people who are rich ten years from now are the ones who are investing today, but let’s not quibble.)

Warren Buffett, a name more recognizable than most because he is the third wealthiest person in the world (he was #2 in 2009, shucks), gets to play with big numbers and buys and sells companies, whether they are public or private. He is also humble and affable. He also had advice for individual investors that applies in booms and busts,
” . . . if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. “

All of these wise guys stressed investing for the long term, looking at the companies before looking at the stocks, not worrying about the markets too much, and maintaining a sense of humor through it all.

The world looks fearful. I won’t energize the fears by listing the menu selections of dramas. Besides, any list is out of date within a day, a week, or a year. Last night I watched Mrs. Miniver, a movie I’d never heard of, but it came in a boxed set of other classic movies on DVD that I got myself for Christmas last year. It told the story about a town in England during the first few years of World War II. Their fears were more immediate. Terror wasn’t abstract. Terror fell in bombs from hundreds of planes. It was a black and white movie, not for effect, but probably because it was filmed in 1942, during the war, during the rationing. They didn’t know how their world would turn out. Nazi Germany was ready to invade with tanks instead of car bombs. England survived, and they survived because they persevered.

Markets go up and down. I think the markets have a long climb ahead of them, and that’s good. I want the markets, and particularly my portfolio, to go up.
Moods go up and down. Thanks to my vacation in Scotland, my mood is moving up as well (except for a temporary but major drop caused by an anxiety attack tied to health care – my body’s fine, but my psyche got whacked). For me, the trick is to look at the long term. Two years ago my portfolio was worth about a third of what it is now. Two years from now, who knows? Could my portfolio triple again? Well, yes, extraordinary things happen.

In the meantime, if you can’t get in touch with Peter Lynch, Warren Buffett, and Louis Rukeyser, then try web sites like the Motley Fool and Investor Village. There you can find people that more accessible, probably with less stellar credentials, but who are more likely to understand you because we are all in this together; and whether it is stocks or other troubles, “we” are more powerful than a bunch of “I”s. Listen to them and keep in mind that at some level in some field, you are one of “them” too.

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A Side of Hope

Posted on October 20, 2010 by Tom Trimbath

Prepare for dismal with a side of hope.

Sad to say but, the newspaper’s still full of foreclosure notices, unemployment sits uncomfortably high, the markets are jittery and fickle, and governments are cutting back services while considering increasing taxes.

When this downturn started I knew it would last a while, but I’m an optimist. I guessed that some of the systemic inefficiencies in our institutions and attitudes would take years to identify and correct, but I hoped that the real estate market and the job market would recover by now. Fixing the financial system would take longer because of lobbyists. Eliminating other pervasive governmental waste would be best and ideally could be done sooner, but may never disappear. Bureaucracies, the military-industrial complex, and entitlements have astonishingly resilient self-defense mechanisms.

Yet here we sit. The real estate market seems to be held hostage by the financial institutions, who seem to be afraid of their own systems and possibly untrackable assets. Loans aren’t easy, despite very low housing prices. The job market hasn’t gotten worse, but companies aren’t hiring the way they normally would even as profits are pouring in again. No wonder there is plenty of anxiety, and in some cases fear.

Yet, I have hope. Life is not stagnant. The only thing we can truly count on is change. And change is inevitable, especially in America’s culture.

As each day passes, the needs increase for some people to move and for businesses to make money. The first few folks that have to sell unfortunately have to sell low, but they get to buy low too.  Eventually they will build the momentum that the banks will respond to. Businesses can accumulate profits, but only if their competition sits still too. Eventually some savvy operator realizes that hiring a few more people will help them gain market share from a stagnant competitor. Competitive pressures will build on themselves, and the accumulated cash balances will fund expansions again.

I thought that would all happen by now. Maybe it is, but is happening quietly. I do know that shipments are up. Inventories are being replenished. It even seems that comfortable consumers are beginning to spend again. This time next year could be a much more normal, though lets hope it will be a new normal that includes more sustainable attitudes and practices.

In the meantime, I would really appreciate a healthier portfolio, though I already appreciate how much better it is now that it was 18 months ago. I, too, have been putting off purchases and maintenance out of prudence, which can be a mask for inner fears.

Breaking free of that cloistered life is one reason I took the trip to Scotland. It went onto the credit card, but at some point movement becomes necessary. Eighteen months ago that would have been highly irresponsible. Now it was merely a step back from frugality. Soon it will be easier to do so without worry. Progress happens, on a personal scale, and on the national and global scale.

Today’s paper had pages of legalese for foreclosure notices, but only a few columns for job ads. Eventually, that will turn around. Unemployment was stopped. Good job. Businesses are showing increased revenues and profits. Interest rates are still down. Lots of people are ready to move. We all are ready, or at least I pity the people who want to live within that malaise.

The new year is coming. Plans are already being made. I’ve already booked my ski trip. The future is what we make it. I’m looking forward to mine. Care to join me?

(In the meantime, could someone please kick the butt in DNDN and MVIS’s stock prices? I want to pay for a vacation and I don’t want to do it with cheap stock.)

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Familiar Routine

Posted on October 16, 2010 by Tom Trimbath

Emails, bills, and chores pile up during three weeks of vacation. I took myself out of my rut and carved a path across Scotland. It was my most relaxing vacation, so far. The trick is to maintain that feeling as I sort through mail, dive into laundry, catch up on missed communications, and work up the courage to attack the lawn. Every day life can entangle with myriad obligations and opportunities, so it can be hard to decide to step away from it for a while. Stepping back in I am intrigued to see how much hasn’t changed while I was gone, with the possible exception of my attitude.

I am a regular sort of guy. I’m not talking about bowel movements. I’m talking about habits. My schedule isn’t strict to the minute, but I do live within a series of routines that keep most chores from becoming unmanageable. My vacation was about touring Scotland, but it was also about trading out one set of routines for another. Here I sit, letting my body recover from the physical routine of walking five hours a day. I’m stepping back into the routines that run my home life.

My investments enabled my vacation. I hope they grow to enable many more. In either case, I watch my investments because they enable many other aspects of my life. One way that I watch them is to track my weekly portfolio progress. At the end of each week, I record the value of my various portfolios (IRAs and such) and also the performance of the major indices (Dow Industrials, NASDAQ, S&P 500). It works well as a regular exercise. It only takes a few minutes each weekend, and because I have done this long enough, it gives me a chart that shows the long term trends of my portfolios as well as the general market. The lines are bouncy because they measure a chaotic system, but a weekly check ignores the daily wows, and gives a quicker read than waiting for the brokerages monthly report.

It would be great to come back from vacation and find that the portfolio has risen by more than the cost of the trip, but that didn’t happen this time. My portfolio dropped by much more than the cost of flights, lodging, and food. The comparison isn’t academically correct. My expenses were real and represent cash flowing out the door. My portfolio value is, to use the correct term, unrealized. It is paper profits and loses. Despite that, those profits can realized by selling stock at the expense of decreasing the portfolio’s value. That’s the way investing works.

Rather than lament the cost of my trip or the drop in my portfolio’s value, I realized that what I just spent on one of the most self-healthy periods in my life cost less than the regular bouncing of my portfolio. Money spent doesn’t come back, or at least not directly; but, agonizing over every last cent (or pence in this case) may be holding my life hostage to money. This is one of the aspects of financial independence that helps me personally. Because I know that I won’t take a vacation like that every week or month, I also know that I can relax more in the midst of money flowing out the door. I also know that my investment style and history experience lots of bounces, but in general trend towards growth.

I steered myself towards bed & breakfasts because the ones I found were cheaper than the hotels. But I didn’t deny myself an upscale hotel room, especially when it would have taken much more effort to shop for a better deal. Shopping for the best deal sounds great, unless you’ve just walked 18 miles as a storm is approaching. I stayed in one very over-priced but very trendy and eco-friendly high-rise because they had the triple whammy of location, location, location – and a computer in the lobby. I spent a lot on that room, and a fair amount on that dinner and that beer and that beer, and was glad to be warm and dry.

While I was gone the markets were up, but my largest position was down (DNDN). At the same time, two stocks (AMSC and RSOL) had nice pops. I sold a few books. I didn’t sell any photos (until right after I got back). In my normal routine I would be much more aware of each of these aspects. During vacation I was aware of them, but not concerned. Despite the mistakes in wording sometimes, I don’t try to balance life and money. I try to balance time and money. Life and money aren’t equal. Time and money aren’t either, but life is dominant; and within a present-day life, it is important to make sure that neither time nor money is spent frivolously. Well, some frivolity is good, but that’s part of the balancing act.

I’m dropping back into my routines. I don’t know when or where my next major multi-week vacation will happen. In the meantime, I bought and created healthy, relaxing and enjoyable memories – and whatever price I put on that is small compared to their value to me.

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Scotland – Chapter Five

Posted on October 12, 2010 by Tom Trimbath

Success! I’ve walked from corner-to-corner, coast-to-coast, across a country. It only took about three weeks, and it’s gratifying. I haven’t been in a car, bus, or plane since I started walking from Stranraer in the southeast. (Of course, I know of someone who didn’t use a car for a year. That’s a good story too.)

Walking a land, or bicycling it, is not a normal vacation. It makes sense to me, but on a percentage basis, it probably doesn’t show up on any top ten list. Very few people do such things. After my bicycle ride across America, I estimated that fewer than a thousand people a year do the same. To put that in perspective, Mt. Rainier is summited by thousands each year. More people climb a 14,410 foot volcano, than bicycle along.

Most vacations, and most adventures, have a different goal. Vacations are usually more about leisure, sitting still or spectating. Some, like ski trips, are more active, but few of them do more than end each day where they started. I like vacations. I want to take more of them. Adventures are usually more dramatic. Climbing mountains, challenging rapids, being chased by bulls, are intense experiences that heighten the hormones and produce great stories – as long as everyone comes home safe.

The greatest dangers I faced were avoiding traffic and finding lodging. There were some hormone spikes in there, but nothing like dropping into a crevase. There was actually a lot of sitting. The days were defined by the walking, but my joints negotiated me down to only about 4-6 hours of travel each day. The muscles were fine, but a 51 year old body has more issues than endurance and lactic acid. Each day was a unique discussion amongst various body parts, and no, you don’t want to know all of the details.

The appeal of such a stroll, is external and internal.

Externally, it is a fine way to get to know a land and its people. I wasn’t cocooned away from them, unless they were the ones in cars and such. The way the houses sit, the gardens grow, the fields are laid; the care or decay was apparent. Marvelous old buildings constantly tended were paired with ivy covered crumbling walls collecting litter. The faces, stoic as they walk along the sidewalk, open and lighten in the pub, or a few sentences into any request for help.

Internally, a self-propelled vacation can be peaceful. I only find there, what I brought along. If I wanted quiet, it tended to build on itself. If I brought worry, it ramped up and had to be contained. The constant low-level effort helped to calm me. The repitition gentled my motions and then my thoughts. If I was tiring early, I’d usually notice bad posture, or a mis-adjusted pack, or inefficient movement. Walk quiet and I became quiet. It was moving meditation for hours each day.

Of course, the tales to be told will be the ones most likely to have photos included, a bit of slapstick, or involve other people. The first one that comes to mind is about the tendency of dairy cattle to follow me as a herd if I sang as I walked by their pasture, an audience captured by barbed wire with nothing else to do.

The real consequence of any such trip is less direct. My subconscious osmotically filled, elements and influences will seep back out into insights and attitudes unnoticed. Travel can affect more than the days and weeks of the trip. This one will affect the rest of my life.

As for this blog, it’s time for it to return to other aspects of balancing life and money. The trip has some loose ends I’d like to capture so, I’ve decided to put together a web site with more details, partly for the curious, partly as a resource for other tourists. But first, a train ride to Glasgow, a plane ride to Seattle, the trip home, and then the overlooked details of everyday life: laundry, food shopping, and lots of emails.

(And thanks to the staff of Jury’s Inn in Aberdeen for letting me finish this blog on a quiet and lonely computer. It cost them nothing and got them a bit of advertising.)

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Scotland – Chapter Four

Posted on October 6, 2010 by Tom Trimbath

Well, I’ve made it to Dundee. That bit of news has less to do with this blog than it has to do with assuring friends that I am fine. The blog is about my book, Dream. Invest. Live., and part of Live is social. Hi, folks. I’m fine.

We don’t live in isolation. Seclusion happens, and I am coming to realize that seclusion is easier in the States than in older, more crowded countries. I am glad for my community. They’ve been the most supportive group I’ve known in decades. America was founded on individual liberties, which makes separation and personal independence more attainable; yet, it was community that made that independence possible.

The other day one a hotel clerk asked me if I get lonely doing this; i.e. walking across Scotland alone. Here, community is much more apparent. The pub and the church are persistent presences in each town. Neither is glamorous, and both are obviously integral and persistent. I suspect the churches tend to be older than the pubs, but sometimes I wonder.

For me, alone time is good and necessary. Many people don’t understand why I do what I do, so taking a vacation along lonely roads and trails sometimes means not having to spend much of the day explaining myself.  It took me a long time to realize that such independence is uncommon.

My appreciation of my uncommon independence is also why I don’t expect anyone to mimic my lifestyle or investing strategy. I talk and write about them, not to explain myself, but to provide an example from which others can take lessons. (Okay, I guess I do like to explain myself, but I gave up expecting comprehension long ago.)

I ran into a fine gent, tie and all, when my walk to Glencarses temporarily coincided with his lunchtime walk away from work. He was part of a team, probably the head, possibly a CEO (buy Macallan Whisky). A work team is community, and even with some element of control over the situation, he found the benefit of time alone. I was glad for the company. I think he was glad for a conversation that was completely different.

Scotland has wonderful community, especially if you are established into the pub’s crowd or the church’s parish. The people are very tolerant of tourists, and definitely warm to each other.

America works. Scottish culture works. The diversity in the world is proof that many cultures work,  but they don’t work for everyone. It is up to the individual to find the culture that works for them. And I feel sorry for those that are in situations that they can’t escape or change. Lifestyle has more flexibility.

I am fairly frugal, but not as frugal as some. I like my investment strategy, which some consider risky and others consider conservative. I like my approach to life, that of a chicken advneturer (my adventurous friends consider me a chicken, those more likely to stay at home consider me an adventurer.)

I am heartened to meet others who’ve asked the questions and found their own answers. It is one of the reasons I enjoy travel. Yes, the scenery is nice. But I remember more the couple who built an awesome B&B because they wanted to. I remember the cyclist who was headed to Capetown (South Africa I believe). I appreciate those who have marvelous gardens or are smiling as they play with their children.

There are lots of answers out there. They aren’t all found by travel, but they are easier to find through exploration. And after it all, it is good to have community to return to.

For me, that’s next week. I have several more days of walking. I’ve made it coast-to-coast, so now I may just saunter more than walk. As here’s to hoping that I find that perfect pub, beside a great B&B, close to a library, and a view, and an easy route home.

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Scotland – Chapter Three

Posted on September 30, 2010 by Tom Trimbath

One day’s walk carried me through examples of every lifestyle from rural, through suburban, into inner city and downtown. What was distinct and united by government and culture is now more entwined. Or at least, the urban world reaches into the rural, and the global pervades the local.

Last night was spent in a fine town with a long name (which I may misspell) Kirkuntilloch. It is the self-proclaimed canal capital, a major hub of the canal system that cut through Scotland’s waist, a watery shortcut from Edinburgh to Glasgow that saved many ships from having to survive the wild open ocean around this island. The canals only exist for recreation now. Highways, railways, and the need for larger ships made the canal obsolete in the mid-60s.

Highways, made out of steel, asphalt or electrons, have also changed the place and the way people live. Especially in a country with excellent rail service, there is no need to live in the city for a city job. That’s very evident in the States, but a downtown trail station makes it even more apparent. Stepping off the train in the midst of the high-rises is far more convenient than driving and parking. Contrary to US train traffic, I have yet to see a freight train. Throughout each day I see regular passenger trains. Despite that regularity and convenience though, the roads are busy and the city housing is packed.

The electronic highways are having a broader impact. Sitting in the canal capital, I listened to hours of American pop music while I ate my Guinness and steak and Guinness pie. Can’t have too much Guinness (though I’m a lightweight). But I had too much American music. That was probably because they were playing the greatest hits of the seventies and I’d prefer something more eclectic and danceable. (They did have a dance floor, but I was there on the wrong night.) American music, news, comedy pervade, as do American brands. With my head down in a book, this could be just another state. Even much of the food is familiar. (Though the pakora haggis was a new one for me. And, no, I didn’t order it.)

The familiarity makes travel easier. The foreign culture is more distant, and I suspect that the distance is in time. The fact that we are becoming a global culture is not news. While much of the pervasion is of American culture into the rest of the world, the internet is allowing back flow and cross flow. Guinness is Irish, yet it is popular in the States. The whiskies I’ve seen behind the bars here are also available in my local liquor store. Haggis pakora or Pakora haggis may not be a common example of cultural cross flow, but even being able to describe it in this blog is an example of how arcane occurences can be at least marginally witnessed around the world. How many YouTube posts have been viewed without any understanding of where the videographer worked from?

The canal builders probably expected their work to be productive longer. Their efforts were re-purposed. Cultures aren’t crafted, but each generation defines theirs and expects it to persevere. We may think we know the internet’s limits and have some expectation of the strength of branding and culture, but I suspect that culture is being redefined along electronic lines.

People moved into the suburbs, but they continue to cluster. The internet is going to allow cultural assimilation, but it will be generations before it is complete.

There will still be a Scotland, and we’ll all be able to know more about it too.

Does this seem rambling? It does to me, but that’s because, as I type this on the American creation that is the internet, the teenagers beside me are streaming screaming music. I don’t know where it comes from. Maybe they don’ t either. But, oy, it is distracting.

Maybe I should spend some time in a Carnegie Library in the States (started by a Scot) where life is quieter, and I think, better funded. Go figure. I need a Guinness.

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