Listen to Them

When times are good it is easy to listen to yourself. When things are going well for me, I contort my arms around to pat myself on my back. When things are going poorly, it is too easy to twist that pat around into a punch, hitting myself for not anticipating every possibility. I don’t do that as much as I did years ago, but friends know where to look for the occasional self-inflicted bruise. Lately I am going back to various founts of wisdom that have been through worse and come out much the better.

For anyone that’s read my book (Dream. Invest. Live.) and memorized it (Ha! Don’t think I expect that!) the following names will be familiar: Peter Lynch, Warren Buffett, Louis Rukeyser, and the Fools. Their wisdoms have considerable overlap, and they also don’t completely agree, but they all have advice that heartens me when the portfolio is low.

Peter Lynch, one of the most successful fund managers and also a good author, is well known for telling people to trust their knowledge and experience when investing in stocks. Consumers create trends, so any shopper has the opportunity to spot good companies before the analysts have done any research. As for down times,

“I’ve found that when the market’s going down and you buy funds wisely, at some point in the future you will be happy. You won’t get there by reading ‘Now is the time to buy.'”

I took that advice and substituted “stocks” for “funds”, which is logical because it is easier for me to track a company and its stock rather than a fund and its manager. It also makes sense that he said that about funds. He was a fund manager. He was in the mutual fund business. And he produced stellar returns.

Louis Rukeyser passed away a few years ago. For decades he hosted a finance show on PBS called Wall Street Week. It was fun. It was entertaining. he made sure the guests and pundits spoke English instead of economics. He was on the other side of the interview after the internet bubble burst and investors were fleeing the markets. CNBC had him on with some other panelists who were debating where the market was going. Was it going to crash, stagnate, or bounce back? Most of the panelists launched into various theories, which were really speculations. There wasn’t much “theory” behind them except their opinions, but it made for a lively show. And then Louis spoke. He had his own spin on Peter Lynch’s comment which went something like this (sorry I can’t find the quote),

“The people who are investing now, are the people who will be rich ten years from now.”

After that comment I quit listening to the booyah pundits. (By the way, I think it would be more correct to switch Louis’ comment to say that the people who are rich ten years from now are the ones who are investing today, but let’s not quibble.)

Warren Buffett, a name more recognizable than most because he is the third wealthiest person in the world (he was #2 in 2009, shucks), gets to play with big numbers and buys and sells companies, whether they are public or private. He is also humble and affable. He also had advice for individual investors that applies in booms and busts,
” . . . if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. “

All of these wise guys stressed investing for the long term, looking at the companies before looking at the stocks, not worrying about the markets too much, and maintaining a sense of humor through it all.

The world looks fearful. I won’t energize the fears by listing the menu selections of dramas. Besides, any list is out of date within a day, a week, or a year. Last night I watched Mrs. Miniver, a movie I’d never heard of, but it came in a boxed set of other classic movies on DVD that I got myself for Christmas last year. It told the story about a town in England during the first few years of World War II. Their fears were more immediate. Terror wasn’t abstract. Terror fell in bombs from hundreds of planes. It was a black and white movie, not for effect, but probably because it was filmed in 1942, during the war, during the rationing. They didn’t know how their world would turn out. Nazi Germany was ready to invade with tanks instead of car bombs. England survived, and they survived because they persevered.

Markets go up and down. I think the markets have a long climb ahead of them, and that’s good. I want the markets, and particularly my portfolio, to go up.
Moods go up and down. Thanks to my vacation in Scotland, my mood is moving up as well (except for a temporary but major drop caused by an anxiety attack tied to health care – my body’s fine, but my psyche got whacked). For me, the trick is to look at the long term. Two years ago my portfolio was worth about a third of what it is now. Two years from now, who knows? Could my portfolio triple again? Well, yes, extraordinary things happen.

In the meantime, if you can’t get in touch with Peter Lynch, Warren Buffett, and Louis Rukeyser, then try web sites like the Motley Fool and Investor Village. There you can find people that more accessible, probably with less stellar credentials, but who are more likely to understand you because we are all in this together; and whether it is stocks or other troubles, “we” are more powerful than a bunch of “I”s. Listen to them and keep in mind that at some level in some field, you are one of “them” too.

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A Side of Hope

Prepare for dismal with a side of hope.

Sad to say but, the newspaper’s still full of foreclosure notices, unemployment sits uncomfortably high, the markets are jittery and fickle, and governments are cutting back services while considering increasing taxes.

When this downturn started I knew it would last a while, but I’m an optimist. I guessed that some of the systemic inefficiencies in our institutions and attitudes would take years to identify and correct, but I hoped that the real estate market and the job market would recover by now. Fixing the financial system would take longer because of lobbyists. Eliminating other pervasive governmental waste would be best and ideally could be done sooner, but may never disappear. Bureaucracies, the military-industrial complex, and entitlements have astonishingly resilient self-defense mechanisms.

Yet here we sit. The real estate market seems to be held hostage by the financial institutions, who seem to be afraid of their own systems and possibly untrackable assets. Loans aren’t easy, despite very low housing prices. The job market hasn’t gotten worse, but companies aren’t hiring the way they normally would even as profits are pouring in again. No wonder there is plenty of anxiety, and in some cases fear.

Yet, I have hope. Life is not stagnant. The only thing we can truly count on is change. And change is inevitable, especially in America’s culture.

As each day passes, the needs increase for some people to move and for businesses to make money. The first few folks that have to sell unfortunately have to sell low, but they get to buy low too.  Eventually they will build the momentum that the banks will respond to. Businesses can accumulate profits, but only if their competition sits still too. Eventually some savvy operator realizes that hiring a few more people will help them gain market share from a stagnant competitor. Competitive pressures will build on themselves, and the accumulated cash balances will fund expansions again.

I thought that would all happen by now. Maybe it is, but is happening quietly. I do know that shipments are up. Inventories are being replenished. It even seems that comfortable consumers are beginning to spend again. This time next year could be a much more normal, though lets hope it will be a new normal that includes more sustainable attitudes and practices.

In the meantime, I would really appreciate a healthier portfolio, though I already appreciate how much better it is now that it was 18 months ago. I, too, have been putting off purchases and maintenance out of prudence, which can be a mask for inner fears.

Breaking free of that cloistered life is one reason I took the trip to Scotland. It went onto the credit card, but at some point movement becomes necessary. Eighteen months ago that would have been highly irresponsible. Now it was merely a step back from frugality. Soon it will be easier to do so without worry. Progress happens, on a personal scale, and on the national and global scale.

Today’s paper had pages of legalese for foreclosure notices, but only a few columns for job ads. Eventually, that will turn around. Unemployment was stopped. Good job. Businesses are showing increased revenues and profits. Interest rates are still down. Lots of people are ready to move. We all are ready, or at least I pity the people who want to live within that malaise.

The new year is coming. Plans are already being made. I’ve already booked my ski trip. The future is what we make it. I’m looking forward to mine. Care to join me?

(In the meantime, could someone please kick the butt in DNDN and MVIS’s stock prices? I want to pay for a vacation and I don’t want to do it with cheap stock.)

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Familiar Routine

Emails, bills, and chores pile up during three weeks of vacation. I took myself out of my rut and carved a path across Scotland. It was my most relaxing vacation, so far. The trick is to maintain that feeling as I sort through mail, dive into laundry, catch up on missed communications, and work up the courage to attack the lawn. Every day life can entangle with myriad obligations and opportunities, so it can be hard to decide to step away from it for a while. Stepping back in I am intrigued to see how much hasn’t changed while I was gone, with the possible exception of my attitude.

I am a regular sort of guy. I’m not talking about bowel movements. I’m talking about habits. My schedule isn’t strict to the minute, but I do live within a series of routines that keep most chores from becoming unmanageable. My vacation was about touring Scotland, but it was also about trading out one set of routines for another. Here I sit, letting my body recover from the physical routine of walking five hours a day. I’m stepping back into the routines that run my home life.

My investments enabled my vacation. I hope they grow to enable many more. In either case, I watch my investments because they enable many other aspects of my life. One way that I watch them is to track my weekly portfolio progress. At the end of each week, I record the value of my various portfolios (IRAs and such) and also the performance of the major indices (Dow Industrials, NASDAQ, S&P 500). It works well as a regular exercise. It only takes a few minutes each weekend, and because I have done this long enough, it gives me a chart that shows the long term trends of my portfolios as well as the general market. The lines are bouncy because they measure a chaotic system, but a weekly check ignores the daily wows, and gives a quicker read than waiting for the brokerages monthly report.

It would be great to come back from vacation and find that the portfolio has risen by more than the cost of the trip, but that didn’t happen this time. My portfolio dropped by much more than the cost of flights, lodging, and food. The comparison isn’t academically correct. My expenses were real and represent cash flowing out the door. My portfolio value is, to use the correct term, unrealized. It is paper profits and loses. Despite that, those profits can realized by selling stock at the expense of decreasing the portfolio’s value. That’s the way investing works.

Rather than lament the cost of my trip or the drop in my portfolio’s value, I realized that what I just spent on one of the most self-healthy periods in my life cost less than the regular bouncing of my portfolio. Money spent doesn’t come back, or at least not directly; but, agonizing over every last cent (or pence in this case) may be holding my life hostage to money. This is one of the aspects of financial independence that helps me personally. Because I know that I won’t take a vacation like that every week or month, I also know that I can relax more in the midst of money flowing out the door. I also know that my investment style and history experience lots of bounces, but in general trend towards growth.

I steered myself towards bed & breakfasts because the ones I found were cheaper than the hotels. But I didn’t deny myself an upscale hotel room, especially when it would have taken much more effort to shop for a better deal. Shopping for the best deal sounds great, unless you’ve just walked 18 miles as a storm is approaching. I stayed in one very over-priced but very trendy and eco-friendly high-rise because they had the triple whammy of location, location, location – and a computer in the lobby. I spent a lot on that room, and a fair amount on that dinner and that beer and that beer, and was glad to be warm and dry.

While I was gone the markets were up, but my largest position was down (DNDN). At the same time, two stocks (AMSC and RSOL) had nice pops. I sold a few books. I didn’t sell any photos (until right after I got back). In my normal routine I would be much more aware of each of these aspects. During vacation I was aware of them, but not concerned. Despite the mistakes in wording sometimes, I don’t try to balance life and money. I try to balance time and money. Life and money aren’t equal. Time and money aren’t either, but life is dominant; and within a present-day life, it is important to make sure that neither time nor money is spent frivolously. Well, some frivolity is good, but that’s part of the balancing act.

I’m dropping back into my routines. I don’t know when or where my next major multi-week vacation will happen. In the meantime, I bought and created healthy, relaxing and enjoyable memories – and whatever price I put on that is small compared to their value to me.

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Scotland – Chapter Five

Success! I’ve walked from corner-to-corner, coast-to-coast, across a country. It only took about three weeks, and it’s gratifying. I haven’t been in a car, bus, or plane since I started walking from Stranraer in the southeast. (Of course, I know of someone who didn’t use a car for a year. That’s a good story too.)

Walking a land, or bicycling it, is not a normal vacation. It makes sense to me, but on a percentage basis, it probably doesn’t show up on any top ten list. Very few people do such things. After my bicycle ride across America, I estimated that fewer than a thousand people a year do the same. To put that in perspective, Mt. Rainier is summited by thousands each year. More people climb a 14,410 foot volcano, than bicycle along.

Most vacations, and most adventures, have a different goal. Vacations are usually more about leisure, sitting still or spectating. Some, like ski trips, are more active, but few of them do more than end each day where they started. I like vacations. I want to take more of them. Adventures are usually more dramatic. Climbing mountains, challenging rapids, being chased by bulls, are intense experiences that heighten the hormones and produce great stories – as long as everyone comes home safe.

The greatest dangers I faced were avoiding traffic and finding lodging. There were some hormone spikes in there, but nothing like dropping into a crevase. There was actually a lot of sitting. The days were defined by the walking, but my joints negotiated me down to only about 4-6 hours of travel each day. The muscles were fine, but a 51 year old body has more issues than endurance and lactic acid. Each day was a unique discussion amongst various body parts, and no, you don’t want to know all of the details.

The appeal of such a stroll, is external and internal.

Externally, it is a fine way to get to know a land and its people. I wasn’t cocooned away from them, unless they were the ones in cars and such. The way the houses sit, the gardens grow, the fields are laid; the care or decay was apparent. Marvelous old buildings constantly tended were paired with ivy covered crumbling walls collecting litter. The faces, stoic as they walk along the sidewalk, open and lighten in the pub, or a few sentences into any request for help.

Internally, a self-propelled vacation can be peaceful. I only find there, what I brought along. If I wanted quiet, it tended to build on itself. If I brought worry, it ramped up and had to be contained. The constant low-level effort helped to calm me. The repitition gentled my motions and then my thoughts. If I was tiring early, I’d usually notice bad posture, or a mis-adjusted pack, or inefficient movement. Walk quiet and I became quiet. It was moving meditation for hours each day.

Of course, the tales to be told will be the ones most likely to have photos included, a bit of slapstick, or involve other people. The first one that comes to mind is about the tendency of dairy cattle to follow me as a herd if I sang as I walked by their pasture, an audience captured by barbed wire with nothing else to do.

The real consequence of any such trip is less direct. My subconscious osmotically filled, elements and influences will seep back out into insights and attitudes unnoticed. Travel can affect more than the days and weeks of the trip. This one will affect the rest of my life.

As for this blog, it’s time for it to return to other aspects of balancing life and money. The trip has some loose ends I’d like to capture so, I’ve decided to put together a web site with more details, partly for the curious, partly as a resource for other tourists. But first, a train ride to Glasgow, a plane ride to Seattle, the trip home, and then the overlooked details of everyday life: laundry, food shopping, and lots of emails.

(And thanks to the staff of Jury’s Inn in Aberdeen for letting me finish this blog on a quiet and lonely computer. It cost them nothing and got them a bit of advertising.)

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Scotland – Chapter Four

Well, I’ve made it to Dundee. That bit of news has less to do with this blog than it has to do with assuring friends that I am fine. The blog is about my book, Dream. Invest. Live., and part of Live is social. Hi, folks. I’m fine.

We don’t live in isolation. Seclusion happens, and I am coming to realize that seclusion is easier in the States than in older, more crowded countries. I am glad for my community. They’ve been the most supportive group I’ve known in decades. America was founded on individual liberties, which makes separation and personal independence more attainable; yet, it was community that made that independence possible.

The other day one a hotel clerk asked me if I get lonely doing this; i.e. walking across Scotland alone. Here, community is much more apparent. The pub and the church are persistent presences in each town. Neither is glamorous, and both are obviously integral and persistent. I suspect the churches tend to be older than the pubs, but sometimes I wonder.

For me, alone time is good and necessary. Many people don’t understand why I do what I do, so taking a vacation along lonely roads and trails sometimes means not having to spend much of the day explaining myself.  It took me a long time to realize that such independence is uncommon.

My appreciation of my uncommon independence is also why I don’t expect anyone to mimic my lifestyle or investing strategy. I talk and write about them, not to explain myself, but to provide an example from which others can take lessons. (Okay, I guess I do like to explain myself, but I gave up expecting comprehension long ago.)

I ran into a fine gent, tie and all, when my walk to Glencarses temporarily coincided with his lunchtime walk away from work. He was part of a team, probably the head, possibly a CEO (buy Macallan Whisky). A work team is community, and even with some element of control over the situation, he found the benefit of time alone. I was glad for the company. I think he was glad for a conversation that was completely different.

Scotland has wonderful community, especially if you are established into the pub’s crowd or the church’s parish. The people are very tolerant of tourists, and definitely warm to each other.

America works. Scottish culture works. The diversity in the world is proof that many cultures work,  but they don’t work for everyone. It is up to the individual to find the culture that works for them. And I feel sorry for those that are in situations that they can’t escape or change. Lifestyle has more flexibility.

I am fairly frugal, but not as frugal as some. I like my investment strategy, which some consider risky and others consider conservative. I like my approach to life, that of a chicken advneturer (my adventurous friends consider me a chicken, those more likely to stay at home consider me an adventurer.)

I am heartened to meet others who’ve asked the questions and found their own answers. It is one of the reasons I enjoy travel. Yes, the scenery is nice. But I remember more the couple who built an awesome B&B because they wanted to. I remember the cyclist who was headed to Capetown (South Africa I believe). I appreciate those who have marvelous gardens or are smiling as they play with their children.

There are lots of answers out there. They aren’t all found by travel, but they are easier to find through exploration. And after it all, it is good to have community to return to.

For me, that’s next week. I have several more days of walking. I’ve made it coast-to-coast, so now I may just saunter more than walk. As here’s to hoping that I find that perfect pub, beside a great B&B, close to a library, and a view, and an easy route home.

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Scotland – Chapter Three

One day’s walk carried me through examples of every lifestyle from rural, through suburban, into inner city and downtown. What was distinct and united by government and culture is now more entwined. Or at least, the urban world reaches into the rural, and the global pervades the local.

Last night was spent in a fine town with a long name (which I may misspell) Kirkuntilloch. It is the self-proclaimed canal capital, a major hub of the canal system that cut through Scotland’s waist, a watery shortcut from Edinburgh to Glasgow that saved many ships from having to survive the wild open ocean around this island. The canals only exist for recreation now. Highways, railways, and the need for larger ships made the canal obsolete in the mid-60s.

Highways, made out of steel, asphalt or electrons, have also changed the place and the way people live. Especially in a country with excellent rail service, there is no need to live in the city for a city job. That’s very evident in the States, but a downtown trail station makes it even more apparent. Stepping off the train in the midst of the high-rises is far more convenient than driving and parking. Contrary to US train traffic, I have yet to see a freight train. Throughout each day I see regular passenger trains. Despite that regularity and convenience though, the roads are busy and the city housing is packed.

The electronic highways are having a broader impact. Sitting in the canal capital, I listened to hours of American pop music while I ate my Guinness and steak and Guinness pie. Can’t have too much Guinness (though I’m a lightweight). But I had too much American music. That was probably because they were playing the greatest hits of the seventies and I’d prefer something more eclectic and danceable. (They did have a dance floor, but I was there on the wrong night.) American music, news, comedy pervade, as do American brands. With my head down in a book, this could be just another state. Even much of the food is familiar. (Though the pakora haggis was a new one for me. And, no, I didn’t order it.)

The familiarity makes travel easier. The foreign culture is more distant, and I suspect that the distance is in time. The fact that we are becoming a global culture is not news. While much of the pervasion is of American culture into the rest of the world, the internet is allowing back flow and cross flow. Guinness is Irish, yet it is popular in the States. The whiskies I’ve seen behind the bars here are also available in my local liquor store. Haggis pakora or Pakora haggis may not be a common example of cultural cross flow, but even being able to describe it in this blog is an example of how arcane occurences can be at least marginally witnessed around the world. How many YouTube posts have been viewed without any understanding of where the videographer worked from?

The canal builders probably expected their work to be productive longer. Their efforts were re-purposed. Cultures aren’t crafted, but each generation defines theirs and expects it to persevere. We may think we know the internet’s limits and have some expectation of the strength of branding and culture, but I suspect that culture is being redefined along electronic lines.

People moved into the suburbs, but they continue to cluster. The internet is going to allow cultural assimilation, but it will be generations before it is complete.

There will still be a Scotland, and we’ll all be able to know more about it too.

Does this seem rambling? It does to me, but that’s because, as I type this on the American creation that is the internet, the teenagers beside me are streaming screaming music. I don’t know where it comes from. Maybe they don’ t either. But, oy, it is distracting.

Maybe I should spend some time in a Carnegie Library in the States (started by a Scot) where life is quieter, and I think, better funded. Go figure. I need a Guinness.

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Scotland – Chapter Two

Scotland is as varied as any country. Stereotypes make no sense. Yes, there are kilt makers and castles and golf courses, but even in one day’s walk I encountered rural, suburban, and the heart of Glasgow. Sheep, high-tech wind mills, shopping malls (which are great for messing up my sense of direction), transitional neighborhoods, the Ballet, and the central train station (which is right outside my hotel window). Nope, that wasn’t a sentence. I’m on vacation.

The Scots are far more energy conscious. My hotel room key fits into a slot that turns on the electricity for the room. Last night’s B&B turned the heat on from 7PM-9PM. Windmills aren’t just in farms. Water is heated only when you ask for it, after a pause. The inconveniences are minor. I’d like to see the total savings if the same thing was applied within modern American lodging.

I’ve been here a week and in addition to stereotypes failing, my initial impressions are already proven to be incorrect. Right after blogging about searching for the balance between preserving the past and preparing for the future, I found myself in a B&B (Langside in Fenwick) that masterfully renovated a 1700’s house into the best and most affordable lodging so far. It can be done, and they have done it with style. Anyone need a role model?

What I appreciate most are the people who ask the questions. What to keep? What to repair? What to replace? One answer does not always apply.

Last night I was in a historic building. Tonight I am in a high-tech, green, expensive hotel (Jury’s Inn).  This may be historic some day too. Then, some will look back and be glad they made the change, and managed to make the place last.

For now though, some tradition. There must be a Guinness around here somewhere.

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Scotland – Chapter One

For those of you who haven’t read my recent posts, and wondered where I’d gone, the answer is Scotland. Scotland a place that is a mix of innovative and historic. A place where the buses and trains run on time, but impressive stone structures decay slowly and sometimes for too long. Call the tourist attractions and then they sound quaint.

Decay is to strong a word, but I won’t do much editing while sitting in a retrofitted phone booth that now houses a very un-ergonomic computer station. At least the price is right. It is free, thought hotel is 70% higher than average.

Some hold onto the past and resist change. Some strive for change without regard to what exists. An unspoken argument lies between. Rather than decay, which is negative, let’s consider maintenance, which is positive. It’s new, but what will it cost to maintain it? It’s already paid for, what does it cost to keep it going? I’ve seen houses renovated meticulously, but sometimes at great expense. I’ve seen houses bulldozed, despite their workmanship; but the new owner wanted something else on that bit of land. Sometimes bulldozers are called for, but it pains me to see them used for a whim. There’s not much of that around here. Maybe they could use a bit more though. They know better than I.

This is one of the reasons for travel. Walking past uninhabitable tourist destinations, while also seeing houses in need of repair, makes me realize that sometimes it is possible to have the worst of both worlds, spending so much to hold onto the past that the present suffers and the future never gets a chance. Such issues exist within my community on Whidbey. Even structures that are a hundred years old have history. Do we save every one? History never dies then. As long as the history isn’t in the way of the past, then save it. In any case, the question should be asked.

We humans are creatures of habit. That’s how we’ve passed along survival skills. But we are adaptable too. The skills from before the Ice Age, didn’t all work as the glaciers approached, and maybe were abandoned, maybe were remembered properly as the ice melted. The past is valuable. Adapting to the present and preparing for the future is necessary.

I have no conclusions. I am on vacation. Days of simply walking, with a simple goal that’s easy to explain, but also puts a label on too simple of an activity. I’m walking to Aberdeen. People understand that. They at least understand the words. Most folks here think I am daft and should just catch a bus or maybe the train. It is harder to describe the simpler activity. Simply walking each day, heading in a general direction. It is mentally quieting, physically easily managed, logistically simple, and one of the most relaxing things I’ve done in months, probably since my ski trip last January.

Why walk? Why not sit on the beach in Hawaii? Because the beach vacation sounds great. We’ve all heard wonderful things about it. And I am sure that it is fine. I look forward to doing that. But I know what I need now. Not the conventional habitual vacation, but a new one, one that is innovative that serves my present, requires little from my past except flexibility, and imposes nothing on my future.

The last time I did something like this I bicycled across America. This isn’t nearly so grand, but that trip changed my life, like another hariline crack in a hatching egg. This trip is showing me more about myself too, though I probably won’t be aware of it until months or years later.

For now, a walk across Scotland is a way to be very present, and as I type that I realize that the present is where I want to be. But first, maybe a return to one tradition, an afternoon nap. I mean, let’s be real, I just walked 50 miles in 4 days. I’m tired!

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Lots of Questions

Should I buy into this? Is that story too good to be true? If this part is bad, is the rest bad too? Pin those questions on any topic from finance to philosophy and entire books, doctoral theses, and political movements can be generated. Answers, however, are harder to find.

I hear lots of questions about life choices and investment decisions. The search for clarity is common and constant. Everyone wants at least some level of security, or at least a lot less doubt. Guessing the future has never been a very successful occupation. A few succeed. Random chance predicts that someone will manage to guess right, just as someone will manage to guess wrong. Being right all the time is nearly impossible, but then being wrong all the time has the same odds. We ask questions to improve the odds, but we can only get to certainty emotionally. Logic only gets there in abstraction. In the real world, logic eventually runs out of data and into patches of chaos.

A friendly conversation the other night reminded me of one technique I use when faced with uncertainty. It has become such an integral part of my life that I frequently forget how much it occupies my time. I look for answers. The way I do it is different than simply asking more questions. I like to get my eyes off the computer, my fingers away from the keyboard, and set myself out into the world so my senses can do their thing.

That’s why I like to invest in local companies. I can visit them. Data in financial statements or summarized research reports are useful and necessary. Numbers rule business. But numbers are not a business. The business may be an artifice of our civilization, but its people, buildings, and stores are real. Ideally, both stories should tell the same tale. The numbers and the operations should look good. The people (employees, customers, management, suppliers) should be treated well and are hopefully happy. The community should be glad that they are there. Many aspects of a business can be asked about in conference calls, but the only answers provided are words. If feasible, I visit. I visit the company. I go to its meetings. I shop in its stores, if it has any. I simply meet the people, listen to their stories, and watch how they interact with the business. Dig back through these posts and you’ll find a few stockholders meetings that I’ve attended. I learn things there that could never be revealed in a conference call.

Soon I’ll be traveling to and through Scotland. It’s a vacation, and it’s also an opportunity to see how they live. Any culture with distinctive features like kilts, whiskey, and an accent (from others’ points of view), can be too easily stereotyped. I’ll be walking across the island. There’s no tour group. It will be just me, my pack, my credit card, and a hope that I can find a place to eat and stay every night. Just like my bicycle ride across America, slowly moving through the country puts me in contact with the people, their lives, and their land. The loneliness of eastern Utah, and the feat of pioneers crossing it, was much more strongly felt while I battled headwinds and hoped that colliding storms collided elsewhere. It was an experience that took a day. On a bus, it would have been possible to nap through the entire experience, and still not get enough sleep. A day on the bicycle covered as much distance as a car does in an hour. It probably took them weeks, if they survived.

Getting to know a person is no different. We hear stories about celebrities, and even though we know that the tabloid tales are less than accurate, we draw conclusions and judgments about their lives. But, because we rarely get to meet them, maybe it doesn’t matter. Except that, for some, it is too easy to use that same approach to people within our communities. Gossip replaces the tabloids. Casual encounters, possibly on really bad days, become the basis of a guess about someone.

Businesses, cultures, people all can be reduced to two dimensional abstractions, flattened images that are efficiently stored, but that lack the depth that truly exists.

Simply showing up is not enough either. It takes time to acquire a deep understanding by absorption through experience. Imagine trying to understand someone by asking them to play act their life while you sit there as a spectator. It would take longer than they’ve been alive. Even parents, who get to watch someone grow, eventually develop uncertainties about what is really going on in that other person’s head.

That’s why at some point we have to rely on trust, intuition, and a bit of luck to get us through. There will always be unknowns. Every logical decision will involve some doubt, though emotions may scoff at logic and overrule it to act as if certain. The trick is to find what is enough. I don’t need to know what’s going on in teenage movie star’s head. I want to know a bit more about investments, and will read, ask and experience enough to reduce the risk. And when it comes to cultures, and people I meet, I try to open up to much more. Face to face, lots of time, lots of listening, and when I want to hear more, lots of questions.

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Vacation Experiment

There comes a time for experiments. Welcome to one of mine. I like it when there are several good reasons behind making a change. This blog is about to go through a transition. If all goes well, you won’t notice the difference unless you’re a cyber geek (though you may have to update your RSS feed). The blog is moving to a new home over on WordPress (trimbathcreative.wordpress.com). Hopefully, just like moving to a new house, everything will get unboxed unbroken and life will return to normal.

I’m taking a vacation. Some would say that I’ve been on vacation since I retired twelve years ago. They’re right from a paycheck point of view. They are also right from the liberation point of view. When I retired, I liberated myself from corporate obligations and could live according to my internal motivations. But I’ve noticed that me, like many of the other early retirees I know, am self-motivated to the point that I don’t take time off. It can be so liberating to be able to work on what I want, instead of working to someone else’s agenda, that I get caught up chasing this task, that cause, today’s new idea. I took longer vacations when I had a paycheck, because it was a contractual obligation. It was a good idea. Left to my own schedule, I can sprinkle enough events around to interrupt any lengthy trip. Time to return to that good idea of time off. Time to get out of my self-defined rut, even if it means jumping into another one by setting a goal like walking across a country.

The idea of the vacation comes from corporate America. The idea of crossing a country is from my past. As I recently blogged about, this is the ten year anniversary of my bicycle ride across America: an experiment in losing weight that failed. The trip did succeed though. I learned a lot about myself, people, and America. Like I said in the book, “I can’t say that it was fun but I am definitely glad that I did it.” (The now more experienced writer in me automatically started editing that line.) The ride, like most such journeys, changed my life for the better. I want to celebrate the ride with another journey. So, to celebrate a self-powered diagonal trip across a country, I am going to do it again, but different. The goal is to walk across Scotland from the southwest to the northeast. It is an experiment in finding a new way to relax and enjoy. I suspect there are more pubs along a walking route in Scotland than there were hotels for a bicyclist traveling American highways.

So, I am taking a vacation, but not from the blog. I like blogging. Evidently, someone else out there likes the fact that I blog. Traffic is climbing fast enough to double every few months. I don’t know if that will continue, but it suggests that the blog may need a home with more room. Something I’m saying must be useful, or entertaining, or both, and that’s a good feeling. I’ll keep blogging as I walk, but I don’t want to take along my laptop and the old way of doing my blog required lugging the machine along. All of my stuff will have to fit in my pack and survive Scotland’s fall weather. I’m fairly sure that my Mac would rather stay home, despite the Scottish origins of the name. Moving to WordPress lets that happen. I can blog from anywhere I can find a computer and a connection.

WordPress is also an experiment for me. I’m old enough that, at some level, I have a habit of following corporate loyalties. I like Apple, its products and its services. I write from a Mac using iWeb, a bit of Apple software. I stopped shy of using some of their online services, because of the habit I have using Earthlink for web hosting. Remember earthlink? I’m surprised they are still around. WordPress is new; and is free just like Facebook, Google, Wikipedia, and others that are in my bookmark list. Open source services have challenged corporations by experimenting with a new revenue model. They give away their services for free. Even the old adage, “you get what you pay for”, becomes irrelevant. Free services can provide whatever they want, if they have volunteers or alternative funding. Working with WordPress, the free blog service, was easier than working with Earthlink, the service I’ve paid for every month for the last decade or so. This is worth a try.

Experiments involve risk. They are attempts that are accepted as risky. Doing anything different is a risk. Trying a different lifestyle is a risk. Traveling to a foreign country is a risk. Starting a business is a risk. Each of us were a risk. Babies are not guaranteed. Without taking on the risks of childbirth there would be no humans. Without taking on the risk of businesses our current civilization wouldn’t exist (and some would argue that it is a failed experiment, though I don’t think the experiment is complete). Without taking on the risks of trying something different there’d be no way to a better life.

So, next week, the blog will have a new home and I should be in Scotland. Hopefully you won’t notice the difference, except perhaps in my tone; and I’ll be pleasantly wandering the land of scotch whiskey, kilts, pubs, lochs, history and fine people. They’re frugal I hear. I wonder if I’ll fit in.

(What am I thinking? It’s Scotland in the fall! It can be cold and wet and it’s farther north than Seattle. Oh well, like I said, this vacation’s an experiment.)

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