Welcome to another story and another video in my One Company One Story series.
This time, Freyr (FREY).
Here comes the amateur legalese.
I began investing in companies and their stocks in the late 70s, but am Not a certified investment professional.
My style and history of investing is described in Dream. Invest. Live., a book I wrote by request – which came out as the Great Recession (the Second Great Depression) began. Don’t underestimate luck. Oops. https://www.amazon.com/-/e/B0035XVXAA
I am Not an investment professional. This is Not financial advice.
By request –
Pardon some repetition but…
Solid power? Why does that matter? Check the previous month’s post about SolidPower.
How about semi-solid power?
Freyr Battery’s “…mission is to accelerate the decarbonization of global energy and transportation systems by producing clean, cost-competitive batteries.” Freyr is still using Lithium-Ion batteries, but better (hopefully).
Within high-tech industries, it can be easy to continually chase “The Next Big Thing”, but that also can postpone introductions to efficiencies that are available much sooner. As I understand it, Freyr is partnered with a firm that has found a new way of generating Lithium-Ion batteries, and to do so in a way that is simpler, solvent-free, and uses less materials. Cleaner, quicker, and easier to recycle. From the environmental aspect it takes less energy and looks like it creates less waste. From the business side, quicker and simpler are usually better. Time is money and complexity can mean higher costs.
From their web site I get the impression that they are focused on large scale operations like energy storage systems and commercial vehicles. They also mention electric cars (vehicles). It would be odd if they didn’t.
Electric vehicles may be the easiest things to see, but renewables like wind and solar benefit from energy storage during their slack times. Cars are noticeable, but trucks can produce more CO2 because they’re working hard. A car is usually carrying one passenger for relatively short trips. Trucks pull tens of thousands of pounds for hundreds or thousands of miles. Freyr helps both ends of the energy chain: production and consumption.
Want to know more? I do too. Unfortunately, Freyr’s website is almost exclusively words and pictures, but no catchy data. Their partner, 24M Technologies, may have more data, but if I’m going to dive in that far I’ll devote a video to them. (Assuming they are publicly traded.) I suspect the lack of data was a marketing and messaging choice, not one of lacking technical content. I make assumptions.
From the stock market side (which does have data), the company is just under a quarter-million dollar market cap, which is within the size I like. Google Finance is only showing data back to July 2021, when FREY was trading at ~$10. As I type this (March 22, 2024), the stock is ~$1.50. That’s a drop. Net income is negative, but that’s common with new companies and startups. Much of the stock drop has been since November 2022. The price seems to have stabilized since December 2023. A quick glance at social media describes a downturn within the sector, not something specific to FREY. Inconclusive.
Google Finance
Regular viewers and readers may know that I am intrigued by the technology and the sector. Making Lithium-Ion safer, cheaper, and more efficient is good and a natural progression for a technology and industry. I admit to reluctance about Lithium-Ion batteries because competing technologies may soon eclipse them. The new technologies are even more speculative, but they may also be necessary to reach climate goals. It is one reason I don’t have an electric car (but then there’s the money, and reliability in some of the environments I encounter. Check the books I’ve written about twelve-month travel in Washington State’s wilderness. https://www.amazon.com/stores/T.-E.-Trimbath/author/B0035XVXAA)
I don’t know what’s going to happen; but, I hope they survive and thrive. I’ll be watching.
So that happened. More correctly; so, that finally happened. “Geron (GERN) Gets ODAC Votes for Blood Disorder Drug”
Disclosure up front. I own shares of GERN. I’ve owned shares of GERN since 1999. I am a fan of LTBH, Long Term Buy and Hold. (Details in my book, Dream. Invest. Live.)
When I bought the stock, I thought Long Term referred to years. Today, I read quotes in online forums where someone proclaims themself a Long because they held a stock for months. The concept of decades doesn’t seem possible to someone who has only been investing for a few years. After about 25 years, Geron (GERN) finally received some significant, positive, but not-yet-quantifiable news – except in its stock price. Within a few minutes of Thursday’s announcement after hours, the stock was up about 80%. Success?
Google Finance
(For those unfamiliar with Geron, aka GERN, I’ve been writing about the company for over a decade. There are links below to help summarize my opinion of the company and its technology.)
Step one: Celebrate the good news. Even for people who aren’t invested in the stock, biotechs can announce progress in treating ailments and injuries. That’s worth celebrating, especially for patients needing treatment. For people who are invested in the stock, there’s usually that price appreciation to celebrate, too.
Step two: Breathe, relax, repeat. After the emotional high, remember this is an investment which can benefit from some rational thought, and possibly responsible actions.
Step three: Decide what this really means in the short term and the long term.
Okay. I raised a toast last night, so step one is complete. I watched the stock during the regular trading hours, which let my rational side kick in.
In the short term: This is great. I’m not going to complain about an almost doubling within a day. This is better than normal (#massiveunderstatement), but GERN has seen spikes of 140% before. I’ve experienced other stocks rise 240% in a day, and know of one that hit 640% in a day. And even that understates the nature of the rise. News items can be discrete events where the rise happens in minutes. The rest of the day may be simply details as the market collectively decides what the news is really worth. Just look at that stock chart.
Until a small company reaches such a milestone, it is difficult to estimate the company, and therefore the stock’s, value. That shifts the points on that line on the chart. Rational estimates move them one way. Market sentiment moves them, too. Some will buy or sell based on market potential, optimism, and pessimism. Some trade just to trade, ignoring the goods or services provided by the company. They just watch numbers go up and down, then they (mathematically) guess where they are going next.
In the longer term (looking forward): What’s the potential for the company? How large is the market? What’s the competition? How much is it needed? The calculations get more complex and are more likely to be grounded in analyses than gossip. Will this make this company viable and sustainable, and hopefully, profitable?
And then here comes the multiplier. If the treatment works for this ailment, will it work for others? If so, how far can it go? That can take longer to estimate.
In the long term (looking backward): For where the stock is now, compared to when the stockholder bought it, has the investment had a good enough Return On Investment? What’s the stock price for personal breakeven? What are the personal long-term goals?
The stock has already hit the cocktail party criteria. It is easy to brag about holding a stock that went up 90% in a day. Spread the cheer. Cheers!
But, did it make sense to have bought it then? If so, great. If not, how much more does it need to go to reach that Return On Investment target, and what are the chances it will get there or higher?
In the present: Geron has issued so many shares of GERN that the power of those initial shares is greatly diminished. I’ve bought several times, so each has its own ROI targets; but, I don’t worry those details. A stock has this value now. Except for taxes, it doesn’t matter when it was bought. What are the likely value and limits that the stock will have in the next few months or years? The next few days and weeks will likely be chaos. What’s the longer picture?
In the near future: The celebrations and such are anticipatory. As I understand it, this was the decision of an Advisory panel. Any full FDA approval isn’t expected for months, and is not guaranteed. Risk remains. Risk also remains after a treatment gets approval, but that’s normal biotech business.
History: A lot of the near-term chaos will be fresh investors and long-term lurkers deciding to buy in now. They’re playing the strategy of purposely missing the first dramatic rise because they’ve used their money somewhere else in the meantime. I’m bad at guessing when that first dramatic rise rises, so I buy in early. My style is more relaxed and patient. For the last 25 years, Geron has had opportunities to announce breakthroughs, and I didn’t want to miss them. Unfortunately, the company sold off many of the technologies so it could survive. It looks like it has.
LTBH is Long Term Buy and Hold, but is not Hold For Infinity. To me, stocks are there to enable a life. If GERN can be sold at a high enough price, I may do so to get out of debt, enable a nicer lifestyle, do some pilanthropy, or even invest in something else.
And history echoes. I own stock in a company pursuing one of Geron’s spinoff technologies. That stock, LTCX, was languishing as a startup can, until about noon the day after Geron’s announcement. Suddenly, the stock started moving almost as if someone made the connection. It ended up 11%. That’s pretty good too.
Google Finance
Now, the waiting game. LTBH is defined by patience. Patience holding. A celebration. Now, patience waiting for FDA approval. Then, a few more milestones later, begin treating people, making money, and seeing it meets or exceeds or fails expectations. It ain’t over, and looks more likely to go on for a long time, which should also be true of the patients.
Feeling overwhelmed? Congratulations! You’re a modern human. Not even AI is going to change that. Ha! Mow the lawn. Stack the firewood. Clean the dishes. Collect trash to take to the dump. Maybe go for a walk. Take a shower. (Not necessarily in that order.) And wait, or don’t wait. There’s more! Oh yeah, and figure out those taxes, which may mean balancing that checkbook, pay those bills, realize you need to look for a job or move or both, et al.
There must be a way to make a way through it all before that et al gets to you.
Ads rarely tell you to do less or spend less. Even when they encourage you to worry less, it usually involves doing more to pay for and arrange that vacation.
Life before electronics was busy. That’s why labor-saving devices are popular. By now, it should be possible to live while doing nothing. Score!
Ah, but more free time means you should Should on yourself. The doctor has a list of shoulds, so does the dentist. Add the government, however you find an income, your neighbors, your house, your transportation, ad nauseam. Emphasis on the nauseam.
Add the couldas. Instead of this Should, I Could do that.
Get old enough and compile a list of Wouldas. If only I’d known I woulda done…
Recently, my perpetual overwhelm entered a phase of several Shoulds arriving at the same time. At least four near-term writing projects. Spring cleaning has a deadline this year (for reasons I can’t reveal yet.) Applying for jobs. Starting new projects (in case the others don’t produce something positive soon after several years of trying.) I’m not going to list them all because the specifics of my list aren’t as important as the reality that overwhelm is happening everywhere.
And then, there’s the changes AI is going to create that may be best to be aware of before they happen. Even if they don’t mow the lawn, AIs are changing the world.
My overwhelm reached a critical point earlier this week. Thanks to my study of karate and some spiritual practices, I’ve developed coping strategies. They don’t make the storms go away, but they make it easier to ride through them. But every tool and technique has its weaknesses. Someone accidentally found mine and hammered it hard. I became less than cool. (#MassiveUnderstatement)
I’m sure you’ve experienced something similar: three compliments in five sentences followed by twenty minutes listing what I Shoulda done, Coulda done, and what they Woulda done. And I don’t think they even realized they were doing it because they were in the midst of their overwhelming situation. Step back, at least metaphorically. Breathe, really. Decide if any of it is a life emergency.
Don’t block the fist that wasn’t a punch.
Sometimes, do nothing and nothing remains undone – because the need may go away.
Don’t react unless there’s a reason and a benefit to do so.
For me, much of my overwhelm traces back to My Triple Whammy, a dramatic assault on my net worth that I continue to recover from. It is unfashionable to say that a lack of money is the source of a person’s troubles; but I know enough impressive people in financial difficulty to realize that such fashionable thoughts are insensitive luxuries. Money does matter. My stress level correlates with it.
At the same time this episode of overwhelm hit, I am watching and waiting for financial news (see, I brought it back around to personal finance) as most of my stocks are due to release good news in 2023, oops, 2024. As usual, I am also applying for jobs; and some of the recent ones look good.
Overwhelm on overwhelm while change is changing.
Step back. Breathe. And do what can be done with what’s available. I was stymied about what to do next. For a few minutes, I stood there trying to decide which to-do item was most important. The priorities change with each change. Keeping track adds to the overwhelm.
Step back. Breathe. Look around. Beside me was something that was sitting there, waiting to become a part of a solution, or a piece destined for the dump. Dump, because even though I should solve that one problem, I could if things were different.
Breathe. Most things take time and good luck. Gardeners know that. Entrepreneurs do, too; they can be impatient, but customers can’t be forced. Advocates know that, too. The cause is just; the cause is now; but the crowd may take a while to show up.
Work with the energies that are there. Add yours, but don’t force others. Aggression reveals weaknesses.
So, I sit here, waiting for financial news that I can’t control, as AI changes the world in ways I can’t control, as my taxes are in the control of a professional, and other professionals are working on other projects. Now, I’m typing this. Before that, I got dinner in the oven. Before that, I mowed the lawn and stacked some firewood. And before that,… And before that,… And before that,… I worked on other things I can control. Shoulds make the top of the list, but sometimes, to relieve the overwhelm, I step back, breathe, look at what’s around me, and maybe do what I can with what I got, and ignore the shouts of everyone else’s Shoulds.
Putting a price on a good neighbor misses the point. Someone who is there and who helps without asking is the way the world should work. I’m talking about a neighbor who is heading to the dump, offers to take my stuff too, and then loads it themselves. My neighbors were nice enough to load up a bunch of fallen fences and leftover wood from various projects and drive it dozens of miles to the dump. I’m in the midst of, as I posted recently;
Clean. Donate. Discard. Repeat. Also equals tired and less cluttered. Also uncovering mysteries hidden for 17 years.
Clean. Donate. Discard. Repeat. Also equals tired and less cluttered. Also uncovering mysteries hidden for 17 years. Stuff. Stuff. Stuff. Whew and wow.#homeownership
Someone proclaimed me Mr. Frugal, an honor. That also means that when part of my fence fell down, I only threw away the broken boards. My neighborhood is windy enough that it doesn’t make much sense to put the fence back up until the winter winds are gone. Oh, but other projects got in the way, so years go by with literal stop-gap solutions while the wood weathers and waits.
I’ve also found that maintaining an emergency preparedness kit alleviates some anxieties. While some aim for the three-days, or three-weeks, or three-months of food goals, I include enough lumber and plastic sheeting to patch up holes in my house, just in case.
For a number of reasons that will become more apparent this year (for events that I can’t predict), much of my time has been spent with the mantra I mentioned above; “Clean. Donate. Discard. Repeat.”
Frugality can amplify creativity and resourcefulness.
Frugality can also lead into the trap of clutter and enter the realm of packrats.
I’m getting new neighbors on the other side of my gap-toothed fence. Any new fence, or even repairs to the old fence probably won’t default to the original style. Out goes the fallen fence material. As I plowed through that pile, it became obvious that supply of fresh wood wasn’t as fresh anymore. Out it goes, too.
Call the local companies who haul stuff to the dump, get quotes of hundreds of dollars, and be glad for neighbors who saw the pile and asked if I wanted it taken to the dump. Sure!
That became part of collecting old, partly-busted plant pots, a never-used handmade shelving system, yard waste from an invasive species, and a bunch of stuff from a bunch of categories that added to yet another load. Look around the yard and be glad it looks so much nicer.
Similar things are happening indoors, too.
Life and living is not static. Breathe in. Breathe out. Repeat. Accumulate. Store. And, after a few seasons or years, use, donate, or discard. I failed to do that until recently.
I found: a few bicycle tires, a three-foot wide mirror with another mirror hiding behind it, rolls of carpet backing in the attic of this hardwood-floored house, cans and bottles with best-by dates that expired a decade ago,… A local thrift store took some. Habitat for Humanity took the big stuff. The recycle and dump stations get almost all of the rest.
Now, the inside looks nicer, too. (This is also an excuse to swap out an old, but functional, fragile lamp for something more efficient, like an LED floor lamp.)
Having too much of a good thing isn’t necessarily a better thing. Duh. Sometimes, that accumulation is a good thing. Having the right materials at hand without having to sprint to the store is a great thing if the project is a surprise, during a wind storm, at night, on a Sunday, when the roads are bad. But preparing for every eventuality can create an infinite burden that is impossible to manage.
An image comes to mind from my martial arts training. There’s a stereotype of the always strong, always flexed, always primed and ready expert. One thing that hour-long sparing sessions teach is tight/no-tight. Walking around all tightened up is slow, tiring, and also looks silly. Be tight when necessary, but necessary may only last a second. Relax so things have a chance to flow, and may succeed with less effort.
Being ready for every emergency is being continually tight, especially in times like these. To get through, relax and breathe. And maybe toss out some old stuff that served its purpose or may never be needed. Watch for nails. And know that, what you think you needed then may need to be replaced with what you need now.
How long do you or I have to wait for the good news to come? That depends on the topic, the issue, the reason to wonder about it. Next week, two of my largest (ha!) stock holdings will announce earnings. Both of them had Forward Looking Statements in 2022 and 2023 that suggested that by about now, good news would arrive. Those bits of quantifiable, signficant, and positive items of good news didn’t arrive then; so, I must consider selling my house now. A week of waiting, but then, I’ve held shares in both of those stocks since 1999. For the next week, I wonder and wait while also cleaning my house, decluttering, and shopping. It will be an interesting week.
The short version, which I’ve already delayed by a paragraph, is Geron and MicroVision, GERN and MVIS. Geron’s mission is simple, but its technology is complex. Their goal is to extend the human lifespan significantly. MicroVision’s technology is inherently simple, but evidently, its commercial applications have had problems. (#MassiveUnderstatement)
Geron started with four innovative technologies, things like stem cells, cloning, controlling telomeres – and it’s been so long that I forgot the fourth. To stay alive, they’ve sold off everything except controlling telomeres. Telomeres are molecules that tell cells when to die or continue living. Control cell death, and hopefully control cancer. Control cell life, and maybe autoimmune diseases become easier to manage. I might be wrong, but that’s this shareholder’s understanding. Their current target is blood disorders. They’re aiming for FDA approval. Approval means they can finally begin treating people, and hopefully become a long-term and viable company, and also extend the treatment to other disorders. It has been a long road.
MicroVision, oh MicroVision, is based on the ingenious idea of oscillating a mirror on a chip. Light bouncing one way becomes a display. Light bouncing the other way becomes a sensor. Bounce light both ways and do things no one else can do. I’ll try to add a spreadsheet of most of the products they’ve tried to commercialize up to 2019. It is an impressive list. My favorite is a projector that fits in a cell phone – which is no longer available. Close behind are augmented reality glasses that they worked on before I ever heard of Google Glass. Now, they’re selling augmented reality headsets commercially and to the military, but they don’t get nearly the press of Apple. They are also trying to sell the sensors that let autonomous vehicles see what’s around them. To stay alive, they’ve diluted their stock so much that my initial investment may be hard to recover. MVIS, too, has been on a long road.
Google FinanceGoogle Finance
Waiting much? Yeah, but look at the books I’ve written and see a pattern of long-term efforts. Of course, if you could see my finances, you could see a pattern of “Well, that should have worked, and so should’ve that, and that, and…” It’s time for the road to finally get somewhere significant, positive, and quantifiable.
My style of investing is called Long Term Buy and Hold, LTBH. Buy stock in a new, small company; ride it through times that are probably risky; sell it after it succeeds and benefit from the proceeds. My style of investing is described in my book, Dream. Invest. Live., which is called that because I invest to live, not to simply win some game.
LTBH worked well enough for most of my investing history that I was able to retire in 1998. Thank you to the stocks that people who laughed at the time, stocks like SBUX (Starbucks), AOL/AMER (America Online), PIXR (Pixar), FFIV (f5 Networks), et al. This ‘should’ work.
It also worked with two other key stocks: DNDN (Dendreon), AMSC (American Superconductor). They kicked in just as the Great Recession hit, which made my life something to look forward to. Then, in two unrelated cases, both companies were targeted by groups that bankrupted one and severely damaged the other. Both groups were found guilty, but the money, my money, was gone. I subsequently lost 98% of my net worth. That story has played out in this blog, and the story continues.
LTBH is risky. I can make a longer list of stocks where it didn’t work. That’s the nature of investing. Some go up. Some go down. But buying Long has a nearly unlimited potential upside. Ideally, a few great ups can counter even more downs because the downs are limited to losing 100%. Some of my ups have gone from ~$1 to ~$40.
Two of my downs also reveal an unexpected consequence, bankrupt companies that become successful. Dendreon went bankrupt, but they’re back in business. Unfortunately, my shares are gone. Iridium was and is a satellite telephone service that went bankrupt, but is still operational. The satellites were up there; someone might as well use them. The ideas succeeded, even if my investments didn’t.
Even the companies that failed can be considered successes for those employed there who made good salaries, bought homes, raised families, sent kids to school, and furthered their careers. Shareholders can complain, but from the perspective of a CEO making hundreds of thousands of dollars a year in various compensation packages, the company represents at least some success.
Some economics historian can say better whether LTBH made more sense in 1999 than it does in 2024. Just because it worked for me through 2010 doesn’t mean it works post-pandemic (though we’re still in it), or amidst computerized trading (now with AI!), or in the general chaos that is our current random world. I don’t know. I just buy and hold. And hold. And hold. And hold.
There’s a cartoon that I wish I could find. It shows two miners. They are both tunneling into a mountain, hoping to find that gold (or whatever.) One quits six inches away from breaking through into a treasure. The other, of course, perseveres that extra bit.
“Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.” – Albert Einstein (supposedly)
Which is LTBH: perseverance or insanity?
Geron’s and MicroVision’s news will not resolve that quandary. Catchy phrases don’t have to prove statistical significance. I own both stocks because I like their potential. Geron exends human life? Excellent! MicroVision obsoletes big old boxy televisions with something that fits in a smartphone? Imagine the savings in warehouses, transportation fuel and costs, packaging and the inevitable landfills,… Or are either or both of them simply job centers for cloistered technical talent and nicely compensated management?
Next week, they report earnings, not necessarily product announcements. But both can happen, and I think the product announcements are past due. People need cures. Surely, more than one of MicroVision’s products will be a positive, significant, quantifiable success. In the meantime, it is time to clean up the house in case it needs to be sold; and apply for jobs still; and hope for my books and photos to sell, and while I’m at it, check that lottery ticket.
Welcome to another story and another video in my One Company One Story series.
This time, Solid Power (SLDP).
Here comes the amateur legalese.
I began investing in companies and their stocks in the late 70s, but am Not a certified investment professional.
My style and history of investing is described in Dream. Invest. Live., a book I wrote by request – which came out as the Great Recession (the Second Great Depression) began. Don’t underestimate luck. Oops. https://www.amazon.com/-/e/B0035XVXAA
I am Not an investment professional. This is Not financial advice.
Solid Power? Why does that matter? Let’s try that without the capitalization. Solid power? Why does that matter? Current electric vehicles (and have fun with using the word ‘current’ when describing anything electric, tend to use lithium-ion batteries. Lithium-ion batteries are one of the technical enablers for our increasingly-electrified infrastructure. Cars predominate, but Li-ion (and have fun with ‘lion’s, too) is used in many batteries. They are why devices can be recharged more times and last longer than things like early laptops. Great. Now, let’s get back to solid power.
Lithium-ion batteries are not solid-state. Liquids are involved. No big deal as long as they work, right? But, liquids can leak. Internal flaws can lead to fires. And, there’s always something better. One reason I haven’t bought an electric vehicle is because I suspect someone would invent something that would eclipse the early technologies used on current EVs.
Hello, solid power batteries. In Solid Power’s case, they are using sulfide-based electrolytes. They are solid, which is safer. Evidently, they should provide higher energy, and cost less than li-ion. ‘Should’ is the key term because new technologies always have a phase during their initial introduction when theory and ‘should’ meet practicality and reality. Witness some of the stumbles that autonomous vehicles are encountering as they ‘should’ not be causing video-worthy traffic jams, et al.
Solid Power is making product and making money. Sulfide-based technologies are less sensitive to geopolitical tensions over precious metals. As or if they prove their technology, their work should become better known. They are not the only alternative battery technology. (How about graphene batteries, which are based on carbon, which is an element that is also incredibly more available?)
I shall leave the technical spec comparisons to others more versed in the field. Solid Power does provide data on their product’s properties, but does not provide comparisons to Li-ion on their web site. But for me, that is just a bonus. If their claims of safer and lower cost are proved in the real world, that may suffice to create a profitable enough company.
Google Finance
Google Finance
The stock market seems to be debating the value of the company, something the stock market does for every company every second that the market is open. The company is down over 80% in the last few years, despite income being up considerably.
I’d dive deeper before investing because there is always more to know about any company, and because they have competitors that also warrant a look. (I’d also have to have something happen, like winning the lottery.) But, their technical approach and progress are encouraging.
I don’t know what’s going to happen; but, I hope they survive and thrive. I’ll be watching.
Have I really been doing this since 2015? I guess so. Every year, I watch the Super Bowl ads. I don’t watch the game because I haven’t watched a professional or college (which is also professional, in my opinion) game since about 1984. (Long story short, I prefer to participate than to spectate, to go hiking or bicycling or skiing rather than watching a bunch of millionaires play for a bunch of billionaires who then claim that the city must build them a stadium even as they profit from exorbitant ticket sales.) The ads, however, are valuable.
Ads, particularly Super Bowl ads, are snapshots of what industries are actively trying to make money from various markets. Industries change. Technologies change. Even politics and tone change. I watch the ads to see what the more mainstream American is being convinced to care about. (That’s right, my life is unconventional enough that I have to be reminded that people care about thin beer and cheap chips. Hey, I’m a minimalist. I don’t shop much.) Ads help me identify trends that are good to know for my various businesses, and for stock investments. Which companies look to be properly and positively disruptive? I’m old enough to remember watching the 1984 Apple ad for the Macintosh. I bought one, invested in Apple, – and that leads into a longer tale that involves naivete, fandom that fades, and a gig helping run a museum.
That Instagram post made me laugh because it is funny, but also because it is an example of how I see many of the ads. Cars show off how they can break the law, or display conspicuous consumption. Perfumes, cosmetics, and clothes portray fantasy realms that probably exist in someone’s life, maybe everyone’s life, but I still remember one first date that started with, “Oh. You’re tall. Good. You can help me hang these storm windows.” No lingerie, exotic aromas, or strategic lighting involved.
Usually, I write this post after the game. I don’t want to miss ads that everyone else says are ads not to miss. Now, Super Bowl ads are released days in advance. Some even get teaser trailers like movies. That’s not a surprise, considering that some ads cost tens of millions, which is more than most movies cost before the Marvel Universe era.
This year, I’m going to watch for a few subjects, and hope I find surprises.
AI? Duh. Gotta check the advances and the claims.
Politics? Do they avoid it, indulge in it, or make fun of it?
Health care: Not health insurance, and not health scares, but actual health care advances. And no, that does not include Medicare Advantage plans. I may fast forward through most of them to keep my anxieties constrained.
Electric vehicles: Are they claiming performance, novelty, sustainability, etc.? The most compelling argument I’ve seen is that charging at home means delivery versus wire compared to having to drive to a place where a tanker has driven to a place, and having to do that every few days.
As usual, I’ll skip the movie reviews. No spoilers, please. I’ll laugh and cringe at the ridiculous images of super-models (regardless of DNA) in impractical clothes in exotic locations. Cars that advertise the interiors are an example of how far removed people are from what is happening around them. Stop watching the movie and drive the car! Snack ads are processed food, and yet they’ll entice me to grab a bag of chips.
The world has a wealth of problems. Are we going to continue emphasizing an economy that relies on luxuries, or are solar companies going to get some exposure? Are any companies going to launch a product directed at people working from home? How about some AI that is more than glitchy gee-whiz?
OK. Enough philosophizing. I’ve written so far on a sunny Friday morning. Watching hours of ads works best by devoting time to them. Maybe Friday evening. Maybe Saturday evening. Maybe – gasp – on Super Bowl Sunday. Nah. I’ve got better things to do; but I will do this to find investments, some of which may end up on my YouTube channel’s playlist One Company One Video.
Thanks to AdBlitz for compiling the list I’ll draw from.
Booking.com – Be someone else? Have multiple personalities? Ah. Price was no object.
Snapchat – It’s not social media? More? Ah, less. More human. Like. But look less real? Love is good.
Google Pixel – Photos for poor eyesight. Interesting. Ah. AI. But if the person has bad vision, who is the photo for?
State Farm – Arnold. Does State Farm cover all of those disasters? I should check my coverage, but I’m pretty sure my agent said no.
Prime? – Non-stop action – from the service that now pushes even more ads, even for the paid service.
T-Mobile – Stars advertising as if they’d set up their own wi-fi.
Michelob – soccer – I’m guessing he’s a star. But what about the beer?
Netflix – spoilers
ABC – spoilers
Paramount – no spoilers, at least showing more than one show/star
NBC – more unreal reality shows, up to $200M? Unreal. Ah, greed.
Nissan – drive distractions
T-Mobile – stars, treated like a VIP, At least they offered something
Apple Music – stars, but good ad for Vegas
Sleep Number – smart bed
Grand Canyon University – creator, American Dream, virtuous action, buzzword bingo, God
Budweiser – snow, horses as ATV, deliver that beer!, and maybe more *
Burger King – $1M, getting customers to invent new offerings? Why not? But nothing about what they already have.
Crowdstrike – cyber defense in a scifi western town, but why them?
Uber Eats – stars, forget something else, Huh? Learning something new is hard?
Truly Seltzer – What’s he doing on that bull?
BMW – Stars? Christopher Walken! Electric. But what about the car?
Peleton – Not everyone is training for a gold medal, but show off those pects. Run your own race = personal motto.
Flowers.com – love stories – Could’ve partnered with eHarmony. At least they had their product in their ad.
Twisted Tea – Actually talked about their tea. Not interested, but real.
PlutoTV – Couch potatoes – Sad, actually.
ESPN – whatever
Starry – That’s new. Ah. Soda. Weird. At least they mention flavor.
BIC – Stars. Straightforward.
Hellmans – Kinda fun, and I don’t know why. No stars (that I recognize?)
Experian – Cool? Debt.
Skechers – Slip in. An actual feature.
Bud Light – Genie. I like the dog. Don’t care about the beer.
BetMGM – Gambling. Tom Brady? Don’t care.
Opendoor – That’s not houses are legally sold.
NYX Cosmetics – Stars. Weird.
Lindt – Love.
Oreo – Trojan Horse. Nothing about taste.
Pizza Hut – Pizza.
Pringles – Approachable, until focusing on the stars.
Liquid IV – First impression = water. Sugar-free. Electrolytes.
Mountain Dew – America’s sweetheart? I am old. Having a blast?
Doritos – Old lady revenge. Taste?
Squarespace – Flying saucers with recent footage. ?
Paramount – spoilers
E*Trade – Pickleball! Save. Cute.
Dove – Fails.
SToK – Anthony Hopkins. ?
Drumstick – Ice cream? Sweet creamy. More convincing than most.
Reeses – Change. Add more sugar.
Oikos Yogurt – Golfing. Golf cart. Strong.
Silk milk – Hawkeye.
Draft Kings – Gambling, as if there wasn’t enough money in sports.
Kia – Ice skating. Driving on snow (a little fast). Who has a rink like that?
Expedia – Cute scruffy dog. Chat GPT
YouTube – Sports. Appropriate, but not for me.
Paramount – spoilers
Coors – A train?
Pfizer – Instant impression, negative. But Here’s to Science is something I encourage. But I suspect it won’t do much.
and more, too much more.
That may be a first, nothing interesting to invest in. I mean, really; I watched that many ads and found nothing enticing? At least there were fewer fantasy ads. So much of what I see is outside my world. But, I am not mainstream anything, so it is enlightening to see that this is what hundreds of millions (billions?) of dollars were spent on with the hope of generating that much more revenue.
The ads were generally well produced. Nice quality. But the message still skews to stars are more important than non-stars. Who has a new service or product that will improve a customer’s life appreciably? But, that’s not the goal. Economies are driven by luxuries, not necessities.
I am fascinated by the disconnect between what people need and what is advertised. The Super Bowl has become even more removed from a middle-income life. Yes. Many items are at low price points, but they are distractions more than benefits. Diversions reflecting the circus part of a bread-and-circuses way of life.
Oops. Typed ‘lie’ instead of ‘life’, and wonder whether that wasn’t more appropriate.
Previous Super Bowl ad years had their weirdness, too. But at least there were more heart-felt moments. Are we missing those as well for fear of upsetting someone?
Maybe that parody video at the start of this post caught something that pulled advertisers back from the extremes of fantasy. I wonder if an advertiser would stand out by resonating with the other half of that ad. Trucks, real trucks, get dirty, haul stuff that scratches paint, end up with dents, and do real work. Ironically, even Mercedes makes such vehicles.
The stars are fun to watch. They are attractive and advertisers want to attract attention. But every ad that has a star makes me discount the advertiser as soon as I see the celebrity.
Trendy happens in real life. Show me trucks that have been used, and haven’t quit. Show me tiny houses and innovative manufactured homes; because I’ve seen them and know they are far better than old mobile homes. Show me cheap cell phones and better connectivity, but show me settings that aren’t populated by millionaires. Show me food that isn’t dominated by sugar, salt, and fat – or chemicals made to mimic them. Remember these things called grapes, avocados, peanuts, steaks, eggs, tea, coffee?
My rant is nearly done, and if anyone is still reading I am impressed. As I wrote above, I watch these ads for my benefit, and of course, I hope you find my impressions useful or entertaining. Today’s viewing marathon has been valuable by showing me so little. That’s a message, too.
I am sure I missed some ads, and some ads I saw and missed the point. But I know that I will look elsewhere for new investments. Someone out there is building a business which will significantly, positively, and objectively improve our world. We’re due for another ad like for the original Mac. Where are you?
It is the first Friday in February, and I’m celebrating two beginnings while watching an old show. Julia Child is making a Cold Turkey Galantine. I made two new web sites. I think I had the easier job.
Flashbacks may happen. I’m watching the earliest Julia Child episodes, black and white; dining is more than eating; presentation and appears must be maintained, and be prepared for hours of preparation and hours of cleaning up. A maid may be required. She took a turkey, took all the bones out, added a meat filling (because more meat is almost as important as more wine and more butter), cook it, and then start making aspic and carving shapes and… That’s Julia Child, and that’s French cooking in the days before gluten sensitivities et al.
Tonight’s dinner happens to be taking just as long but that’s because I bought a roast out of the discount bin, and it’s been in the for hours. I’m letting it rest, and will have some after I type this. Minimal effort. That’s Tom Trimbath and whatever label you want to put on it.
In some ways, it has taken less time to start a new blog, (TomTheWriter.com), and a new podcast (IntuitiveCreativity.com) than it took for Julia to cook. That’s not a measure of Julia or me. That’s a measure of how far the internet has matured.
Starting web sites when web sites were a new idea took hours. Take classes. Learn a programming language called html. Deal with slow connections. Eventually launch something that will be public, but to a very small audience because so few were online.
Entrepreneurs relied on old-style advertising, waiting to get into the next edition of the Yellow Pages, and handing out lots of business cards, brochures, and postcards. It took a while and cost a lot.
Now, entrepreneurs can start an online presence using templates and some YouTube classes in the time it took Julia to cook a turkey.
Let me dial that back a bit. The brochures make it seem seamless and quick. For me, it takes a little longer than that. Reality intrudes when details about setting up accounts, adding users, etc. become necessary. But it can be as simple as the cooking equivalent of ‘put the beef in the pan, put the pan in the oven, turn on the oven, then eventually turn off the oven.’ Poke it with something to see if it is done. Dine.
Late last year, someone suggested I get the domain name, TomTheWriter. They may have thought it was a joke, or serious. I thought either and both were fine. I already had a WordPress account. No one else had the domain name. I checked a few boxes, picked a template, answered some typical questions, and now have a new blog (as if I needed another one.) The good news is that, aside for posts like this one, my writing adventures can live over there rather than here, which is about personal finance. It also makes sense because, in addition to 8 books and 10 photo books, I have one sequel and one screenplay in work, with an easy half-dozen more projects in line. They deserve a home of their own.
More recently, a friend and reader of this blog who had an excellent blog told me I should add a podcast to this blog. Thanks for the compliment, but feature creep accumulates and I had enough to do. But. I turned it back to him and said something like, “Fine. When do We start?” He’s a fascinating guy. Why should I podcast alone? Spread the work around. I learned a bit, realized setting up a podcast was easier than I thought, and started the process. It took us longer, weeks, to come up with a name. IntriguingCreativity.com After that the site was up within a day, just an hour or so. Welcome to the overlapping thoughts of a high-level international business consultant and an ex-aerospace engineer. We’re both writers and public speakers, and we enjoy talking about the overlap. Tune in. Episode 1 is up.
Both of these sites are live, and are barely past the ‘put the beef in the pan, put the pan in the oven, turn on the oven, then eventually turn off the oven.’ Some spices have been added. Both templates have been lightly modified, just like the recipes I no longer use, and have been served up without much fanfare. No business cards, Yellow Pages, or postcards.
The frugal side of me finds this fascinating. Our society needs more voices. We have more than enough problems and too many of the old ideas aren’t working. I play with ideas in my books. Steve and I play with ideas in our talks. And it doesn’t take much. Ask me that in the middle of untangling some pesky internet kerfuffle and I’ll disagree mightily, but compared with what something similar would’ve required last century this is nothing to complain about. (But why is that audio faded!?!?!?)
Steve and I are adding our voices to the conversation, though we’ve independently done that for decades and now get to do it on a podcast.
I’m partly typing this to promote our podcast and my writing site (and Steve is excellent at coaching about marketing, which means I’m making him wince with my amateurish efforts); but my main goal is to tell folks that, rather than rant and rave on Facebook, or try to decide what Twitter/X is, give your voice the respect it deserves. The world is changing rapidly enough that we can’t wait until later, for whatever reason. What do you know that we don’t, but we should? We won’t know until you tell us, and by ‘us’ I mean all the people on this planet. It may be silly if we all talk at once, but it is better than only letting the gatekeepers talk and having to hear their party-lines echoed without thought.
Yeah. I started two new ventures. Yeah. I could’ve done it more efficiently. Yeah. Many people could make better looking sites. But I made mine. Please make yours, make it truly yours with your thoughts, not just echoes. We’re all in this together, and I certainly don’t know where we’re going. But I’m trying and having fun talking with people like Steve. I hope I, we, can help. And you can too.
Fresh ideas, inventions that I pass along to the world. Maybe they already exist. Maybe they’re useful. Maybe they’re fun. Maybe I don’t have the time, money, and resources to patent them, or develop them, or both. At least by writing about them here I am less likely to forget them.
The idea is simple. I’ll use my dentist visit for an example. Traditionally, the patient is given tinted glasses to wear to block some of the light from the large overhead dentist’s light. The idea is to tune the wavelength, or polarization, or both of the light and the glasses so the light can be as bright as necessary, and the patient will be blocked from that frequency but not the ambient light or view.
The inspiration came by noticing my hygienist had switched to a headlamp rather than the overhead. That refreshed my experience of working around technical lasers in a lab setting where protective eyewear is required. The irony was that, the very lasers we were working with became invisible – which was the point. (Keep that eyewear on until after you’ve left the lab! And then make sure you take it off because you might look a bit odd at lunch.)
The eyewear I wore at the dentist was familiar, comfortable, and even fit over my glasses. Why not tune the eyewear to the light source and remove any extra distraction to the patient who is looking up at either the big old light on an arm, or even a headlamp on a dentist or hygienist?
Corollaries include any environment where the light source can be tuned. The hygienist immediately suggested tuned car headlights and tinted windows or eyewear. The headlights would still light the road, but the peak distraction could be dramatically lowered. This works as long as the reflected light, which is the light we see from the illuminated objects, would have sufficiently shifted frequency or polarization to be visible to the interiors of all vehicles.
Whether this Fresh Idea is serious or silly, writing about it is also a little gift to me. I enjoy playing with such ideas. Evidently, so do some readers. Years after I’ve posted some of them, they continue to attract traffic. Two of the more popular ones are: Dockside Tidal Power and Passive Pump. Maybe someone else has the resources to pursue them. Maybe they’ll remember where they got the idea and will be gracious enough to include me. Who knows? But the world has many problems. We need new ideas. It is hard to know which ones will make the biggest difference, but if ideas stay locked inside heads, the ideas may be revealed too late, or never.
Economics of distractions sounds like a PhD dissertation. Maybe I should go back to college and get a doctorate. Maybe I wouldn’t be surprised that someone else has already written about it. In reality, I’m hearing about football tickets, trying to find a quiet restaurant, and noticing how easy it is to fall into computers and smartphones. Distractions. Distractions. Distractions. What would we, or at least I, do without them?
Pardon me as I do a quick search on the price of Super Bowl tickets. Eep! They start, start!, at over $2,000. The max, according to my search, is over $60,000. Even the average is almost $9,000. For four hours of entertainment? Yipes! A week’s wages, a month’s pay, a year’s salary for the time between two meals. They can ask those prices because they can sell those tickets. And then there is food, lodging, travel, possibly betting, possibly mental health counseling if the team loses, probable infrastructure repair. Fascinating.
As a society, we spend billions of dollars on an event held between millionaires playing for billionaires in stadiums paid for by taxpayers in cities that have homeless and hungry people. Oh yeah, and then there are the ads for luxuries that have little to do with normal people.
I live alone, so no one gets to see me shake my head at the absurdity.
But it is only an absurdity to me.
Sports are popular. They are about games, but the majority of people involved are fans, spectators who enjoy the distraction of ranting and raving about things that can sound vital but are really trivial. Ah, but ranting and raving can be therapeutic, so there’s a mental health benefit. Maybe that’s worth it.
Change of topic
I am a fan of socializing, dancing, parties, basically things where people being with people are the main thing. Conversations are key for me. At someone’s home, it is easy to control the volume. Even dancing doesn’t require blasting eardrums. How else can socializing happen at a social dance event? Head-banging parties are visceral, cathartic, and other multi-syllabic words that ironically describe events where words can’t be heard.
As we come out of our protective shells (possibly too early), I’m glad to see that people want to talk with people. Conversations are happening again, or at least trying to. Restaurants have learned that a loud environment encourages extra spending. People resort to eating and drinking even more when they find they are sitting in a space for long enough. Conversations can last a long time, but look at romantic lovers who forget to eat or drink because they are engaging enough. Try to find a place for a romantic meeting, however, and don’t be surprised if the place charges more.
Want to live someplace quiet, without distractions? Pay. Want a quiet car? Pay. Want a quiet vacation? Pay.
Change of topic
Computers and smartphones (which, of course, are computers) command attention. Life and society existed before them, but now we’ve integrated them into every aspect of our existence. We have convinced ourselves that the answers are in the boxes. Even bureaucracies require us to obey computers, which can frequently be distracting as simply saying Yes or No can inspire a chase of files, usernames, passwords, two-step authentications, updates and downloads. It feels more vital because we’ve done so much to get something done. Paper and pen were cheaper and slower, but use a computer long enough and it must be replaced with something that costs hundreds or thousands of dollars, and comes equipped with software and services that add up to that much in subscriptions.
Television wasn’t immune. How many people need the distraction of watching shows that are preferred to being quiet, or at least quieter?
Be with each other, or simply alone. No ads required. Hyperbole by choice rather than delivery.
I am not immune. Music, shows, videos, movies, I ask them to distract me from overthinking things. Their distractions are welcomed to help me do dull chores. Unfortunately, entertainments become necessities, even though they are not. In the meantime, none of them are free. Even if they don’t charge money, their providers get something from our attentions, and we spend time providing it.
I realized this about myself during the lockdown part of Covid. How to fill the time?
I write. I like shows and movies and such, but I soon realized that I liked my stories more than I liked rewatching other stories, or watching stories about characters who weren’t engaging to me. There may be a nobility to writing, but I realized I was writing as a distraction. Carry me away to, in my case, a science fiction story about people escaping a malevolent Artificial Intelligence, or a fun series of essays about tea, or a possible movie about a 14-year-old spoiled brat who has to grow up quickly on board a sailing ship in 1876. Yes, there’s a nobility to writing, supposedly, and yes, I need the money (and still do); but one of the major influences was how to distract me as a single guy who can’t spend much while responsible friends are acting responsibly cautious?
Summary, sort of
We are born with few distractions. They are vital distractions and we can’t articulate them, even though they are few. As we mature, obligations are layered on us, and distractions provide temporary refuges from those obligations. It is easy, however, to redefine those distractions as vital enough to be worth paying for. Thousands of dollars for a few hours of a distraction? That’s an interesting example of needs and wants, values and morals, peer pressure versus self-care.
Human needs are inherently simple. Life requires little for food, shelter, and such – on an individual basis. Civilized society requires those layers we drape across ourselves and then carry around with pride at being able to handle the burden. Of course, our civilization makes it possible to accommodate billions of people instead of however many can be self-sufficient.
But I remind myself that I have layered myself with obligations, and then lay distractions on to counter their weight.
I wonder what life would be like if sports were played more than watched, if any time and place people want to gather, they could do so with what they can say and do, and if we ruled our tools and used them temporarily rather than continually.
How much more could we get done, how much better could we live, or at least how much more could I do and how much better could I live if there was less time and money spent on distractions?
Trimbathcreative's Blog (Tom Trimbath) 