Ah, 2023, the year that was going to be The Year. It’s not yet midnight December 31, but the outlook is not immediately encouraging. But, if not 2023, how about 2024? This gets interesting.
A commendable effort by all.
Doesn’t look like my portfolio is going to live up to 2023’s promises, though.
#TETisPondering
Allow me to skip the suspense. I think we’re already in, not just near, but actually in the Digital Singularity. We are also in the accelerated version of climate change. Social changes like politics and justice are seeming like the 60s.
Despite all of that and more, my situation hasn’t changed much. The more things change, the more they stay the same?
In 2023, I drafted a screenplay, wrote a sequel to my sci-fi novel, recovered from quitting one job that was going through an industry upheaval, got another job, quit it, got another job, and it quit me because of an industry upheaval, and ramped up all of my efforts to sell what I’ve already produced: 8 books, 10 photo essays, and some merch.
My net worth is roughly the same. My house remains my main contributor to my asset growth. I benefit from being a frugal minimalist, by necessity instead of choice.
So, what was that quote about #TETisPondering about? After holding some stocks for over 20 years, CEOs Forward Looking Statements suggested that 2023 was going to be a good year for investors because the companies had good news. MicroVision is always 6-9 months away from good news. Geron finally applied for FDA approval, but its goals are diminished and its stock is diluted. SolarWindow couldn’t even find its managers to properly file its finances. Lineage Therapeutics looks best, but they promised the least. CEO Forward Looking Statements have the weight of Thoughts and Prayers, nice ideas but not necessarily anything tangible, nothing objectively financially productive.
As usual, I’ll post synopses of each company and each stock on various discussion boards, but the general consequence of their performances is, maybe, next year. Next year, 2024, isn’t far away. This year was last year’s next year, and this year is almost over (as I type in 2023.)
There’s the dichotomy: everything is changing while nothing is changing.
Something’s going to change.
One thing that changed was interest rates. Reduce the noise to find the one signal that is sending me a clear message. Because interest rates are up, my finances are no longer sustainable. From the vantage point of near the end of 2023 it looks like I will have to sell my house. Considering Whidbey Island’s real estate market, I’ll probably have to move out of the county. (Move From Whidbey Over 1700) This is all happening as I turn 65, so there are changes to Social Security, Medicare, taxes, and senior discounts at the theaters. I foresee many forms, even if it is only Change of Address.
But, good news can happen before any of that has to happen.
So what? This blog is about personal finance. My mid-year and end-of-year posts are about my stock portfolio. That’s why I chronicled that list of changes and failed-to-changes.
I am a relatively patient person. I persist. That’s how I got my Masters, rode across America, walked across Scotland, and more. I look long-term. I even invest that way. My investing strategy is to buy stock in small companies early, then sell when they are successful. That’s one reason I was able to retire at 38. (See my book, Dream. Invest. Live. for details.)
Some unexpected recent news is that some of the criminals that directly caused my un-retirement have been found guilty. Unfortunately, shareholders like me can only cheer on justice, but don’t get to cheer on recovering the money.
Patience is not unlimited. Some of my stock shares are old enough to vote, serve in the military, and become productive members of society. Instead, they languish and linger, occasionally spouting encouraging thoughts and prayers.
Infinite patience may be a virtue, but for now, humans are finite. I am human. I am finite. I strive to be responsible, therefore I must respond responsibly; hence, I might have to sell my house and move.
My investing strategy that helped me retire worked for decades. Maybe it was good luck and is now being balanced by bad luck. Maybe the investing world has changed enough from the days of full-service brokers to heavily-discounted brokers to autobots that company fundamentals no longer have value. Maybe I simply must find a way to persist, which is a very human situation.
Fool me once; shame on you. Fool me twice; shame on me. Fool me for over 20 years – we get past shame and blame, and get into pain, at least financially.
Or maybe GERN will get that FDA approval and can become a good investment. Maybe the same is true for LCTX. Maybe MVIS components sell well in multiple significant devices, and the crossing into success is no longer forward-looking but something historic to cheer and benefit from. Maybe WNDW and SOLO find ways to recover from their upsets.
AI is accelerating. It is no longer a surprise to find it incorporated into anything electronic, a change that happened in a year. Climate change is changing enough that more people have to pay attention, even if only because insurance companies are responding to the realities. Social changes are slower because they involve us pesky humans, and we are committed to those changes even if we don’t know where they are headed. Elections will focus all of those issues, and elevate them out of academic confines and into reality.
And personal finance is personal. I watch trends, but my trending bank accounts dominate my personal life. AI will affect my employment. Climate and societal changes will affect where I’m interested in living. But my actions won’t seem to be about AI, or climate change, or societal change. I might sell and move because of finances.
Or not. Change is accelerating to the point that good news can happen in a moment. That’s always been the case, but our interconnected society and civilization extends that web of conduits. There are more opportunities for good news, and it is easier for it to spread and reach me.
In the meantime, I think I’ll start packing, just in case. While I’m doing that, my portfolio can persist, my online stores for my books and photos and merch can persist, and opportunities may prevail to provide reasons for real optimism.
And, I still buy lottery tickets.
For more details about the stocks, here are links to various discussion boards where you can find my synopses, as well as others’ points of view. For more details about how I do what I do, there’s a book that I wrote at the request of several friends: Dream. Invest. Live. Maybe you can help my personal finances by buying a copy – though the frugal part of me recommends checking one out from a library.
The following links are to various discussion boards I follow. Many of the independent investors who contribute to the discussions provide in-depth analyses that either aren’t available elsewhere, or would cost too much to buy. The other advantage is the diversity of perspectives. Unfortunately, I don’t engage as much as I did before. Some discussions have degraded due to lack of moderators, or overly zealous moderators (oxymoron), or have too many immoderate voices. Some boards are effectively ghost towns, or feel like cavernous empty warehouses. Regardless, here are the sites I continue to visit, even if it is only to lurk and listen.
I encourage you to tune in, because more voices (as long as they’re mature) make for a better conversation. Maybe I’ll read you there.
Investor Village (widest range of boards)
Motley Fool (This had the oldest boards, but recently those links no longer work. They have yet to reply to my query about what happened. This is a good example of why it makes sense to keep copies someplace that you control. That is one reason I post to this blog, and also why I post to several web sites because it is harder to lose everything that way. Alas, those first posts for MVIS may be lost.)
Silicon Investor (Relatively older boards, less trafficked, but populated with informed investors)
Reddit (many will cringe, but there’s impressive quality within the impressive quantity of posts and voices)
Trimbathcreative's Blog (Tom Trimbath) 