Defiance

Let me write this before I forget to include it. (Welcome to the world of a writer who sometimes runs at a topic without going back to rearrange things.)

I have tried to live by the rules.
Yet, I am surprised by how many times
I’ve survived through defiance.

And another one.

Persistence enables Resilience
and can require

Defiance against convention.

I hadn’t expected to write about that. I expected to take a few days to write for my self, writing about things that are so personal that I won’t share them, but things that are so important that I needed them said – or at least written and read by me.

So much for a mindless and semi-indulgent mini-detox and vacation.

I spent five days, which was better measured as four nights, in one of Washington State Parks’ vacation houses, the historic 1900 hospital stewards’s house at Fort Flagler on Marrowstone Island. Quiet. Authentically antique. Simple and elegant. And cheap (~$450 for four nights for a two-story house). 

I’d just taken a similar trip to the Washington coast at LaPush, but enough is going on in my life and in the world that I wanted/needed some time to relax, but also to sit and think, and write.

In the midst of chaos, the best response can be to be still and observe before reacting.

In karate, “Do not move unless it is to your benefit to do so.” That’s why some parring matches start with two martial arts seemingly doing nothing. What they are really doing is observing themself and their opponent before moving.

It was a time to let myself settle away from the chaos and decide what is best and healthiest for me. You may find a different answer.

No internet. A blessing. I did have a mobile hotspot, but I only used it intermittently. No music. Turned off the TV. Quiet. It was the quiet of a 120-year-old house that has far fewer of the hums and beeps of a modern-day house. The windows and walls would creak in the gusts. Things would ping as the air warmed and cooled through the day. 

It was a welcome challenge to sit and be still. 

It was also impossible to ignore the realities around me of political turmoil, crumbling markets, (space hardware that fell over), and all the rest.

But take it back to the basic basics: me, walking or sitting and thinking.

Skip the details. What’s the over-arching theme? 

I’ve been through turmoil. I’ll spare you the list, but this blog is more than a thousand posts of celebrations and disasters if you want details.

Decades prove that I am persistent. I have perseverance. The Great Recession was bad, but personally, My Triple Whammy was far worse. I persisted. Medical issues, relationship issues, business difficulties, etc., have been survivable because I persisted. I persevered.

And lately, the term Resilience began to pop up. To me, resilience is the foundation that is touched and that supports whatever persistence requires. Persistence is the continual motion forward. Resilience is the base from which it is possible to bounce back. I couldn’t be where I am without that forward motion and the support that kept me from sinking too low.

I was thinking about me, and realized it can apply to society as well. 

So, I wrote. I wrote paragraphs on pages. I also wrote lists: lists of positives and negatives, hurdles cleared, challenges remaining. 

I also noticed that the worst times were met with a defiance I didn’t recognize at the time. Do you think that’s going to stop me? Let’s test that. Charge! Painful, but productive. 

Most of my anecdotes are private, but I’ll share this one because it doesn’t infringe on anyone else’s privacy.

I collapsed a disk in my back. It was hard to affix blame because within the month of July 1988, I was dropped on my head in karate (straight down, almost rigid), ran a marathon without sufficient fluids in 90-degree heat, and had a jarring fall while climbing Mt. Rainier that almost dropped me into a crevasse. I was young. Duh. 

For whatever reason, I developed sciatica, with the attendant shooting pains down my legs, muscle spasms that made sleep difficult, and a leg that locked up to the point that I had to drag it around for a few weeks. The doctors and therapists prescribed drugs, exercise, and therapy. Nothing much was working beyond my body healing itself.

I was frustrated in not being able to walk, hike, or run. Life didn’t have to be that way. I biked. I struggled to get on my bike, then commuted to work that way. As I did more, I could stretch more. As the mobility improved, I tried walking, and hiking, and  – let’s try running. Naturally, this all took months, which was enough time to realize that my therapies were working better than the therapist’s and doctor’s remedies. 

The climax of the story was that, by persisting and persevering, I eventually ran a marathon again – and surprised an incredulous doctor. I had to defy conventional wisdom and approaches to find my own answer.

That defiance of convention, coupled with perseverance and persistence, has been a process that had unconsciously gotten me through chaos and turmoil.

Ironically (or not), while I was away, one of my largest stocks (LUNR) fell 40% because their spacecraft fell over. Someone lost a few hundreds of millions of dollars, I am guessing. But. They almost got it right. They have a backlog. Aerospace, especially innovations in aerospace, are known to be risky. I’ll hold the stock rather than sell because they can probably persist. The very act of innovation is a defiance of convention. I wish it had worked, but I’ll stick with them to see if they persist and profit.

On a grander scale, our society is in turmoil and chaos. I can’t blame a friend who sold everything. There’s wisdom there. I didn’t because I know that even in down times, some things go up, and that most of my companies are making progress regardless of the headlines.

What I’m taking from my trip are some of those insights into defiance; but I’m also taking the basic reality and truth behind the quiet and persistence of the world that exists beyond the distractions of audio and video and ads and pundits.

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Boycott – February 2025

So, what did you do, or not, on February 28, 2025? I went snowshoeing without snowshoes (too messy to get past the parking lot), and then dancing, which was a different kind of beauty. What I didn’t do was shop. February 28, 2025, was a boycott. Don’t buy basically anything corporate in protest against – the oligarchs, I guess. Whether it worked or didn’t, it may be the start of a new trend. And, to get all personal finance-y about it, trends are good things to watch because they can make a difference.

Pardon me as I steal from myself.
A frequent flaw in military campaigns is for generals to fight the new war using the old war’s tactics, but…
“Weapon technology advanced while tactics didn’t. Politics is no longer the social movement of the 60s. Marches are gratifying, but not as powerful as the right and lucky viral tweet or video.” –  (Nonsense)
Masses of people marching only affects people who listen and watch. Oligarchs may not care.

As I understand it, an economic boycott may be one of the ways to get them to notice the non-oligarchs. It was worth a try, and may be again. Early reports are that there wasn’t much of a change. As a friend mentioned (paraphrased), “One day may not do it. Maybe a month would.” Tesla is inadvertently acting as a test case. Tesla sales are down about 50% in Europe.

Tesla sales being down, even TSLA shares being down may mean a multi-billionaire is only, wait for it, a multi-billionaire. Money is not the motivation, except as a measure of something intangible and effectively artificial. 

But here’s the personal finance influence. TSLA shares being down won’t make their biggest shareholder poor. It wasn’t until I started typing this that I realized there may be thousands of shareholders who were impacted more. The oligarch may scoff at the consumer, but the shareholders have authentic power over the people associated with the company.

The last few months gave me a front-row seat to the impact of casual comments. Since the US election, my portfolio has seen swings of ~50% – and I don’t own stock in the mega-corps. A mega-corp CEO provides a personal opinion and my portfolio swings between me shopping for land for a house and me planning on stocking a prepper pantry.

On social media, I jokingly declared March is for Marches. Sure. Do that, at least for ourselves. But I think my friend’s idea of a month-long boycott may be more effective.

Ironically, many of my friends are not ‘normal’ – and I write that in an affectionate way. I am not the most frugal person I know. Calls for boycotts can make sense, but first find people who are spending money. Whether by choice or necessity, most of my friends gave up shopping at Walmart years ago. Amazon still gets business because sometimes that’s the only way rural areas get supplies. Microsoft/Apple/Google are a limited field from which to buy computers, which are not discretionary. When you’re already not shopping there, they won’t notice that you didn’t show up.

I violated the boycott two ways. I bought gas. I streamed a movie. It was a sunny and warm Friday, and I am using such days to take photographs for one of my next books and projects, Twelve Months at Hurricane Ridge. On Saturday, it was a new month, so I did it again, just in case the National Park gets closed for some bizarre reason. On Saturday, there was no boycott, and I didn’t even buy gas. (By the way, I buy gas at the station in the S’Klallam nation. I wonder if they can make a deal and get their country back.)

My friend’s response to decoupling his finances from the market’s was to sell almost all of his shares. He sold at the top, accidentally. Nicely done. I’ve ridden it back down again, as I tend to do.

This isn’t our old world. The old strategies and tactics may apply, but the terrain is shifting. The old strategies and tactics can also become counter-productive without warning. One bit of hope is that somewhere within human culture, society, and civilization, someone has the answer for new strategies and tactics. 

As I included above, a march or boycott may be worth doing to express ourselves, but in this new struggle, they may not be “as powerful as the right and lucky viral tweet or video.” Stay tuned. Shop local. Be frugal. Be kind. And speak up. That casual thought you just thought may be the thought that everyone else needs to hear.

And if you need to get a view of real reality, allow me to recommend looking at nature. I do.

view from Hurricane Ridge – Olympic National Park
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Resilience

Resilience: “the capacity to withstand or to recover quickly from difficulties; toughness“

That’s a word that came up a few times this week. Maybe the universe is trying to give me, or someone, a hint. Resilience, difficulties, recover. Yeah. That seems appropriate. First come the difficulties. Eventually, there’s a recovery. And the two are bridged by resilience.

“If you’re going through hell, keep going” – Winston Churchill

I am in a personal recovery. I miss my home, the only house I’ve ever considered ‘home’, but selling it has swung me into a recovery mode. Being poor really is unhealthy. Ah, ‘was’ unhealthy. I lost my view, but I also rid myself of debt. The immediate feeling was loss. A layer of responsibility released as I could no longer be responsible for a house that required more care than I could deliver. Then, after the first few months of bills sunk in, I felt another layer lift as the monthly obligations dramatically dropped. I’ve been in my new old big tiny house (MyTinyExperiment.com) for over nine months. Layers hidden by layers re being released. Whew.

Whew and weird. Change carries its own stresses, even good change. Over a decade of financial hardship (#massiveunderstatement) will take more than a few weeks or months to unravel. I just booked a week-long vacation, and feel incredibly guilty and irresponsible – and take that as an even greater incentive to get away. The joke is that it isn’t a week, it’s only five days; and getting away is to a retreat that is only a fifteen-minute drive away. Baby steps. 

Timid? Sure. Financial hardships can come with cautions that are necessities. Especially in today’s society of ads for luxuries bought on credit, it is easy to be lured into spending more money than a person has. Since selling my home, my expenses are lower and my investments are higher. I can afford it. My logical brain knows that. My fearful brain hopes it is possible.

Patience. I tell myself. You’ve got this. I tell myself.

The word ‘resilience’ came back into my vocabulary within the last few weeks. It wasn’t because of finance. It was because of health. 

Relax. I will spare you the old-man details of aches and pains, but I will share a bit of the story of resilience. 

Circa 2009 (remember those financial upsets?), I had some upsetting conversations (another #massiveunderstatement) with some doctors. After that, I felt weak, fragile, and wasted – and not in a good way. My response? If things are going to be that bad, and if health care is going to cost that much, I might as well take a vacation and walk across Scotland, or something like that. If the core of my issues was stress, then maybe a less-stressful environment and experience would be good for my health. I didn’t intend to write a book about it, but one day and one moment of revelation convinced me to write the book: Walking Thinking Drinking Across Scotland.

I didn’t die, despite the feeling I had after working with the doctors.

That was a three-week trip. I’m working myself back up to that level of courage.

Evidently, I was resilient enough to survive. 

Recently, I had another set of worrisome doctors’ visits. Groan. Moan. That kicked off a several-day response that felt equally unhealthy. And it led to another revelation. 

From 2009 to now has been an epic series of difficulties that I have somehow survived. Friends helped. (#massiveunderstatement) Some friends accidentally didn’t, but that’s because knowing which advice and which word is appropriate is a tough choice.

Hey. Wait. I survived that. Long-term readers know that I’ve chronicled a string of those difficulties on this blog. (Thanks for being there.) I survived.

I survived. 

I have resilience, evidently.

My stress level is high, but falling. My learned defenses are falling, but cautiously. My moments of being contented feel foreign, but are welcome. I guess I’ve been resilient. Maybe those doctors’ concerns were warranted because they have to act on the side of caution, but there was evidently something positive countering them and helping me steer through the morass of worry.

One of my simple joys is going dancing, or at least to hear music, at the local cidery (FinnRiver) almost every Friday afternoon. My doctors caution against alcohol and sugar, hence, no cider for me, but I have tea (Kettle Pot Cup). My favorite tea? Resilience. There’s that word again.

And then, there’s the news. Pick your station. Pick your feed. Pick your social media platform. The news is unpleasant (#massiveunderstatement). 

It would be nice to say that we’ll get through this and everything will return to normal, again. Unfortunately, we haven’t had a healthy, sustainable normal in human history since, what, maybe the advent of growing crops. Going back isn’t an option. Going back is a fantasy, and one that only a few can truly share. 

Sadly, I think we’ve lost the luxury of time to counter the environment we’ve created. Climate, economies, politics, injustices are all damaged. Repair may not suffice. We may have to re-evolve, at least culturally.

However we proceed, those who survive will exercise or at least learn resilience.

Resilience is noble, honorable, an achievement. Resilience is not necessarily attractive. Someone who has been required to practice resilience can look like a firefighter walking out of a disaster of a home. Smudged and smelly. Possibly bruised. Ready for a change of clothes. But alive. Resilient.

For now, resilience may mean being open to new kinds of changes, to a lack of stability, and to sharing and asking for help within a community, possibly a new one.

I needed a day off. I didn’t plan it, but my schedule was clear of commitments. The weather was just right for enjoying the local ocean view, but from the comfort of my car. Blue skies are great, but wind and hypothermia aren’t.

Seagulls happen. (Birders tell me there’s a better term for the bird. Ask them for specifics.) I drove to a fort turned park, Fort Worden. I was comfy. Dressed warm. A cup of tea in the cup holder. A book (Good Omens) if I wanted to distract myself. Nature provided a distraction. A seagull landed on the fence, looked at me, hopped onto the hood of my Jeep, and stared at me. This is odd. Then it started pecking at the clean windshield. Is it going to break through? Bah! Tap. Tap. Tap. Bizarre. 

Hey, universe. Are you trying to send me a sign? The bird took a nap. I took a longer break. Eventually, I drove away because it was lunch time. The bird flew off.

When I got home, I realized I was still curious about the universe and signs. Hello, Google. What’s seagull a spirit guide for? Resilience. You’ve got to be kidding. Or, if nothing else, I’ve got to be grinning. 

“If you’re going through hell, keep going” – Winston Churchill

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Nonsense – February 2025

Don’t try to make sense of it. I know, I know. You’re a responsible adult trying to at least cope and maybe even make things better. Congratulations. I commend you. Get to it and stay with it. But don’t try to make sense of it. This is government by whim, at best, and extreme and unsustainable corruption at its worst. Rats. I think I’ll have a drink. I even have a way of rationalizing that. 

Canada, O, Canada, my favorite neighbor, seems to be enacting an ad hoc boycott of American, er, US, products. Can’t blame them. Good idea. I’ve seen notices of a US boycott of commerce on February 28. A nice sign and a good idea, and it shouldn’t be surprising that a minimalist cheers on less consumption. (Gotta remember to get that order in for some blinds and a skillet. Counter-productive, eh? I’m sure I’m not the only one.)

Sip.

This blog post is partly inspired by our recent podcast episode. (Intriguing Creativity with Steve Smolinsky and Tom Trimbath) Every month, Steve and I talk about problems and solutions. The creative solutions are always the most entertaining. We tend to stay away from politics, but to ignore politics lately is to ignore almost every aspect of modern life. So, we dove in.

I’ll spare you the details because an hour-long conversation of rants and raves, well, it would take less time for those who are interested to listen to the podcast. That’s why it is there.

Solutions tend to come in themes. For a while, everything would be solved if everyone had a website. Now, be on social media. Oops. Use AI. Uh oh. Don’t use AI. One theme goes back thousands of years: trust each other.

Predicting what we will need is only possible by chance because conventional wisdom is now moot. We don’t know what we need, but we know we need each other.

Another friend called me (an actual phone call!) to tell me that they and their neighbors got together to compare what each had, what they could offer, and what they might need. 

Sip.

Sure, there are going to be marches and letter campaigns. We hope there will eventually be a legitimate election. But, in the meantime, neighbors can help neighbors. It is handier in communities with land, water, and sources of power. Despite what the ads say (Super Bowl Ads 2025), people don’t always have to rely on corporations or governments. Corporations and governments exist because they can be useful, but humans and human societies existed without central authorities. Some re-learning may be required.

That’s partly what Steve and I talked about. Steve lived in wilderness. I’ve lived frugally. Media romanticizes the cabin in the woods and the simple life, but when someone actually does it, they can also be ridiculed as backwards or out-of-touch. Worse, they can be labeled as a prepper, someone waiting for the civilized world to crash. And yet, such ‘silly’ ideas might be an effective coping mechanism for some.

Millions of people are like the fictional members of The Matrix, hopelessly plugged in, and prone to shock if they disconnect.

Sip.

There is no panacea. We will all need a variety of coping mechanisms, each customized to the uniqueness of individual lives. I’ve moved into a tiny house, and hope to move it and me onto land I own rather than land I rent. It might make more sense for someone to move onto a bus line or buy an ebike so they aren’t as reliant on petroleum. I know some folks who naturally will be growing more of their food. Bonus points for raising something that lays eggs. Omelets may be golden in more ways than color.

Pausing and deciding to not sip.

Pardon a war analogy, but it may elevate the example appropriately.

The US Civil War (the War Between the States) and World War I were horrendous. War is horrendous, but in both cases, waves of lives were thrown at conflicts in ways that were ludicrous. Weapon technology advanced while tactics didn’t. Politics is no longer the social movement of the 60s. Marches are gratifying, but not as powerful as the right and lucky viral tweet or video. Letters to senators should be powerful, but senators who are incumbent many times over have probably figured out ways to protect their careers regardless of the issues. They may not risk their position by prosecuting someone who seems to be unassailable.

What can we do for and with each other? Debates may succeed, but one person growing potatoes, and another person raising chickens, and someone else figuring out how to create a local area network, and someone else hooking up many power solar panels than their house needs can be a community that mutually survives. There will be disruptions, but they may be minor compared to people who are ignoring the issues or trying old tactics on an evolved battlefield.

What does this have to do with personal finance? Think more in terms of frugality. Respect needs over wants, and resources over hopes. As some politician said; “Do what you can, where you are, with what you have.” After you’ve established that foundation, you’ll have more security than most. Then, if you have excess resources, teach others, and maybe teach archaic institutions.

Sip.

My sips have been frivolous but a handy reminder. In joking solidarity with my northern neighbors in Canada, I, too, have decided to imbibe some Canadian whisky. (I realize the economics and math don’t necessarily work that way, but hey, an excuse for whisky.) More seriously, I intend to shop local even more than before. Supporting the local farmers builds community. Yes, it does cost more, but I also get more. The region becomes healthier. The people become more resilient. My money is going to someone I may know instead of a distant oligarch. 

I am also a believer that what the oligarchs are doing in unsustainable. They’re so enamored with climbing as high as possible that I don’t think they realize they will inevitably fall. I don’t think anything is going to convince them until they contact the ground at full speed. I feel sorry for them because of their delusions and the impact they have.

I am not qualified to give advice, but I am allowed to pass along what I intend to do, and I extend that to celebrating others who are doing even more. Thanks to everyone who is doing in addition to talking. Nicely done.

Sip.

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Super Bowl Ads 2025

Welcome to my annual review of Super Bowl ads. I wonder what kind of scrambling went on after the US Presidential Election. I watch the ads, but not the game, to spot trends. I watch for trends throughout the year, but every Super Bowl becomes an opportunity to see what is on advertisers’ minds at the same time. I’m writing this intro before the game and before I’ve seen the ads, but I already know I will be watching for oligarchs versus rednecks, even though they may be on the same side; form versus function, because appearances seem to matter more than practicality and pragmatism; and how many businesses will try to dodge populist politics versus jumping onto bandwagons. And yet, it is probably the same suite of corporations: cars, beer, sports, escapist movies, perfume, travel, and personal finance. The practice is interesting sociologically, but also is a hint of investment sentiment. Will AI be as prevalent as the Internet was when we capitalized it? How about American-made? Stay tuned. It takes a long time to watch dozens of ads. I expect a beverage may be required, and I’d be startled to see a local microbrew advertising what I choose to drink.

I feel like I should open a beer, crank up some country rock, and wave a flag to get in the mood. Nah. This is always an odd enough experience already.

I miss AdBlitz. It compiled an exhaustive list in previous years. 

From https://www.superbowl-ads.com/category/video/2025_ads/

  • Universal – Escape to a theme park that is kind of like a movie, so escape to an escape.
  • Doritos – Aliens want our salty snacks.
  • Greatness – MAGA? Jesus? 
  • Meta – Celebrities eat art, and Meta does what?
  • Meta Ray-Ban – Stupid celebrities?
  • Bosch – Machismo is back.
  • Ritz – Celebrity freaks?
  • Pfizer – Drug ads cause anxieties through fear. Skip.
  • Michelob – Celebrities win at pickle ball.
  • TurboTax – Weird backwards driving is okay, and she ends up in luxury.

Except for the ad for Jesus, machismo, celebrity, and escapism is back. Oh, and celebrities are better than any of us.

  • T-Mobile – Starlink/Musk – I’m sure this has been developing for years. Sorry, T-Mobile.
  • Homes.com – Best? But at what?
  • Marvel – More escapism.
  • Dunkin Donuts – Celebrities that are anti-Starbucks more than they’re for something.
  • DoorDash – More celebrities.
  • Ram Trucks – A celebrity in a truck they don’t need, in ways it can’t be used.
  • GoDaddy – Dumb celebrities saved by AI and AR? Sounds like a theme for a new era. Hello, eloi.
  • *NerdWallet – Finally, my first laugh thanks to a beluga.
  • Skechers – Old celebrities?
  • *Lay’s – Potato farmer cuteness, yeah, that worked, I think I’ll have some Kettle Chips. (GF)
  • SquareSpace – Break stuff to spread the word?
  • *Hate – Well done showing how ridiculous it is. Will it work?
  • Little Ceasars – celebrities
  • Pringles – celebrities
  • HexClad – Something useful. A pan with aliens but celebrity matters more than why use the pan.
  • WeatherTech – Still advertising after all these years? More old folks, but at least they show what it does.
  • Hellman’s – Harry Met Sally – I’m a fan, but I doubt that mayo can do that.
  • Hims – Selling fear.
  • Budweiser – Clydesdales – Always a good entry. 
  • Bud Light – Guns and beer.
  • OpenAI – Progress, and therefore good. Right? Right?

Celebrities, so many celebrities. Are they the only people who matter? Almost three dozen ads so far.

  • Google Pixel – AI and a phone help craft resume lies, yet real. Good?
  • Cirkul – A celebrity delivers water bottles. But why Cirkul?
  • *Mountain Dew – Celebrity and unreal, but at least funny. “None of this makes sense.” And yet, it is closer to a real ad than most of the rest.
  • Uber Eats – celebrities
  • Coors – Sloths, cool. Mondays?
  • Instacart – Quick and relatively clear.
  • Rocket – Home, country home. “Everyone deserves their shot at the American Dream.” Unity. Serious question: How real is a home for the viewers?
  • Liquid Death – Ugh! What a thing to say!
  • Poppi – A new kind of soda. Not bad.
  • Taco Bell – Anti-celebrity makes a point, with a celebrity.
  • Nike – “So win.” Good and simple.
  • Salesforce – celebrities commenting on AI?
  • NFL – “It Takes All of Us”

My winners

  • NerdWallet – I enjoyed the humor, and the idea that even belugas have figured out personal finance.
  • Lay’s – It may be a revelation to some that potato chips come from something that grows in the ground.
  • Hate – Really anti-hate, but if they’d started with the ending they would’ve lost a lot of folks. Sad that we need an ad like this. Glad someone did it.
  • Mountain Dew – As silly as it was, it made more sense than several of them.
  • Nike – Concise, simple, strong and actually created an emotion.
  • NFL – “It Takes All of Us” as possibly the first NFL ad that I liked because it was about people, not celebrities, not the game. People.

OK. That’s over four dozen ads. I didn’t catch them all, but it’s more than enough for me to notice trends.

I expected more AI. I didn’t expect so many celebrities. Both things are out of touch with regular people. Those who are in the AI world and the celebrity world can believe that their world is everything. They’re missing a lot. One segment of society missing the reality of another segment is not a good sign, especially when it is amplified, displayed, and celebrated as if it was aspirational and normal. Ouch. 

Maybe celebrity is safer than reality, at least for a while. Ironically, I think AI is going to redefine reality, and it is going to happen in ways that are going to be more confusing than these ads.

No change to my investing strategy. Still, an educational exercise every year.

PS I really liked the Harrison Ford piece. I’ve always been impressed by him and his approach to life. And, Jeep was good enough to make it happen and mostly get out of the way. Nicely done. (The ad was posted after this post, which I thought covered enough of them. It did, but this one deserved special treatment, hence, the PS.)

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Tariffs Immigrants Refugees Regulations Oh My

This post brought to you by Overwhelm, a product that’s in great supply with more on the way.

(This post also brought to you by some ill health that is the result of a healthcare provider. Tough day, but that’s reality – and may some day be a post.)

Welcome to the end of January 2025, a month that was forecasted to be chaos. At least it didn’t disappoint in that regard. A bull is in the china shop, and it has a baseball bat. (My pardon to bulls. Mythbusters proved they can be quite graceful.) Crockery is hitting the floor as someone takes wild swings in the world simply because it seems like a good idea. What’s an investor to do? What’s any person to do?

Tariffs
So, increase the costs of goods sold, penalizing the citizenry as if they were the culprit in some crime. Doesn’t make much sense, but it does affect how to invest and buy things. I’m glad most of my investments are not in China, but I am surprised that Canada is targeted. (Canada?) Regardless, my foreign investments are not in commodities but in technologies where the product may be unique, and therefore, the market may be driven to solutions regardless because they meet unmet needs. Another reason to buy local? Except local has usually been more expensive, and maybe their costs went up too.

Immigrants
I don’t think immigrant laborers could’ve organized a better demonstration of their value than forcing millions of them out of the country. Food prices are going to climb. Farms will lose revenue from crop losses. When we finally admit we needed those people, regardless of nationality, they’ll be able to negotiate better wages and conditions – finally. They’ve been due for a long time. I suspect housing prices will rise as fewer contractors also means they can demand higher fees, too. (And I sold my house last year because I couldn’t find contractors willing to work on small jobs. Imagine how tough it might be to get a window, or plumbing, or electrical circuits fixed. Invest in trade schools or DIY classes? Businesses that rely on high-value products that don’t require much labor may be safer. May be.

Refugees
And we’ve got refugees, internal refugees. Climate change has forced itself into the top issue in many regions regardless of politics. Fires and floods have always been human worries. Politics is coming in as support networks are taken out, which may drive even more people from fire and flood areas. That’s especially true as rebuilding buildings will require contractors who are in greater demand. Maybe this leads to more manufactured housing because it is labor-efficient, centralized, ideally more affordable, and a proven product. And yet, a critical hurdle may be existing attitudes in the areas refugees are seeking refuge in. I expect the manufactured housing industry welcomes the opportunity to deliver tens of thousands of housing solutions, but homeowners associations and planning boards may say Not In My Back (or front or side) Yard. It’s almost enough to make a person think these states on the north american continent aren’t united. 

Regulations
Fewer regulations? Sure. Except that we may find that those regulations were there for a reason. Businesses that cheer their repeal may find joy in the short term, but in the long term they may find a declining customer base, and if proper governance returns, they may find themselves in lawsuits from damaged persons and organizations. I’d be less likely to invest in a company that only succeeds when the safeties are off. Regulations are much more whimsical than reality and can shift back within a few votes at a local review board meeting. 

The forecasts of chaos may be understated because chaos is hard to predict. Greenland? Really? How about fixing healthcare? 

The new rules or lack are confusing. For me, the easiest philosophy to consider is something I tweeted (X’ed?).

https://twitter.com/tetrimbath/status/1883222710874251337

Oligarchs will be oligarchs.
Not surprised that they only care about oligarchs,
and then they turn on each other.

Ultimate power ultimately destroys itself. We can get hit by the shrapnel, but there are also ways to duck or exit the field for a while. After they’ve cratered the landscape, we might find we’re like farmers after a battle, filling in massive divots, being wary of old mine fields, and yet returning to some semblance of our previous life. But in the meantime, maybe bring a periscope because it is good to know what’s happening, and some of the things that will happen will be incredible, as in, not to be believed.

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Ponderings – January 2025

OK. We’re solidly into the new year (2025). What to worry about? What to ponder? What to write about? I guess I’ll write about what I’m worried about and pondering. Spoilers: politics and climate change aren’t the biggest two.

In no particular order aside from convenience, here are some of the things I’m keeping in consideration in a year that I expect will be the most disruptive in my lifetime so far. And, yes, that includes 9/11 and the Internet Boom and Bust.

I’ll get two of the most popular meme topics out of the way.

Politics
Let’s get the dirty laundry out of the way. The US is not alone in experiencing weird shifts. I am as likely to get my news from the BBC and its European counterparts (DW, France 24), and CBC as I am from CNN. I hope to find good sources in other hemispheres. The world is going weird. Policies are shifting. Alliances are being questioned. There is a lack of leadership as power vacuums are created and new contenders maneuver to fill them. The current US President and his very open shadow government may accelerate the demise of an empire, but they have limited time to do it and do not have total authority regardless of what they think about it. Hope and cope and tune back in for an update in a little less than four years – unless the US Constitution is rewritten, abolished, or ignored.

Climate Change
The climate is changing. Nature didn’t wait for our debate. Deniers delayed the appropriate responses. Now, they get to debate with Nature. Instead of spending $1 for defense against disasters we will be spending at least $7 for recovery – and I suspect that number is low. Put a T behind those dollar signs if that helps put things in perspective. Put a 0 before the T and after the number, because we’re more likely to be dealing in the tens of trillions of dollars range for what’s about to impact us. 

In no particular order:

Social Injustice
The bad news is that because of the Internet we are now aware of social injustices around the world. The good news is that the bad news is less likely to be able to hide. And yet, the change from medieval thinking to global justice is measured in generations and centuries, not years. The US is still effectively resolving the Civil War (aka The War Between The States). The Middle East is the eternal poster child for “never forget”. And yet, a viral meme can change societal awarenesses in a few moments. The struggle is enormous, but it is people changing people, which means it is in our control.

Refugees
Pick your crisis and your worry. People are moving to find better lives, sometimes by choice, too frequently by necessity. People are walking thousands of miles and crossing several borders because that is still better than staying where they were. Fires and floods are eliminating regions, causing migrations to places that may already have issues from infrastructure to sustainability. The lack of a global response to refugee flight is proof that our society has yet to find common values, morals, and goals. Refugee flight is also proof that the need for solutions isn’t academic or merely a political argument. Millions of people are already moving. If they’re denied for too long and too harshly, they may enact solutions the non-refugees disagree with.

Eloi Oligarchs
Meanwhile, from people who have lost everything except for what they can carry, Oligarchs are proudly taking control, acting as if wealth equals intelligence, and accidentally displaying how ignorant they can be. If it wasn’t for luck, how many of them would be just like the rest of us? In this society, money does equal power, these people are addicted to power, and the rest of us are likely to have to deal with their whims then clean up their mess. Seen from the outside, they seem to be reaching unsustainable heights. When they crash back, we’ll be amongst the debris if we survive the shrapnel. A lesson from karate is to let those who are proud of their power beat themselves up. Their way of living is unhealthy, and that may be what brings them back into check.

Pandemic
The pandemic isn’t over. Also, pick your pandemic. Polio might be back? People resist vaccines because they aren’t pristine and perfect? Evidently, even calling something The Black Death is not enough to convince people to protect other people by fighting the bacteria and viruses rather than each other. At the start of the Covid epidemic, one set of researchers called it a ‘practice pandemic’. Covid is a pandemic, more virulent than the flu,  but not as virulent as bubonic plague; yet, it mutates and we can’t predict that it won’t become as dangerous, or more. In the meantime, conservative estimates place the death count at 7 million. Considering imperfect reporting, the total is estimated at 20 million, and it continues to kill, and too many continue to ignore it.

Epic Hack
A few lines of code and the system can crash. Have you been on a voluntary digital detox lately? Leave the phone and computer behind and realize how reliant we are on instant information. Doing business by paper isn’t practical anymore, yet mess up Google for a day and lives will be lost. Even a temporary collapse of Amazon would be a disaster to too many. And yet, we’ve already witnessed outages caused by slightly buggy updates. Ironically, with a big enough hack, the only way for the news to get around may be word-of-mouth in a global-sized game of post office. Chaos can ensue, and it probably will take less than most realize.

Currencies
Basic economies are having their assumptions challenged. The insurance industries are finding that their profit models can’t deal with climate change, political whims, and various disasters. Wars are getting expensive again. Conflicts are as likely to be sanctions instead of weapons. Russia may have gained a respite because of US politics (and they are probably linked), but its assault on Ukraine increasingly makes it look more like a hollow economy. Check back through history and see that military spending has gutted countries and shrunk their currencies. If a major country like the US suddenly lost the world’s confidence, then all currencies may find themselves in crisis. It will probably be survivable, but eliminating social nets and personal savings would be a historic disaster.

Satellites
Satellites are giving us good things. It is possible to have too much of a good thing. It is possible to have too many satellites. Satellites bump into satellites. Incredible coordinating efforts minimize the likelihood, but as more satellites are launched the probability of collision increases. Not all satellites are discarded in the atmosphere when they are no longer needed. Some stagger along, hopefully in graveyard orbits, but at least for now, there’s little management of that cemetery. And then came Starlink, a good idea that is so successful that we’ve accepted the negative impact for astronomers, and an idea so good that their thousands of satellites are being joined by other constellations of satellites. A particularly bad collision could cascade through, creating a cloud of debris that negates our advances in space. Very disruptive and requiring years or decades to clean up the mess.

But these are the big swingers that can change everything in ways we have trouble imagining:

AI
Artificial Intelligence is in everything! Great. I can’t find the Harry Potter quote, but it is a reminder that great does not always mean good. AI is great, but one of my worries is that much of the conversation is about AI as if it is an end point and that nothing can happen until then. Look at humans. Major mistakes can be made by people who think they are intelligent, great. Wars have been fought to counter such consequences. If AI develops autonomous intelligence, there is no reason why it will stop when it equals normal human intelligence or genius intelligence. Why should it stop? We may want it to, but our desires won’t have any power. An AI can emerge at computer speeds instead of human speeds. The possibility of a AI Digital Singularity is increasing, and can happen sooner than anything listed above. On the plus side, AI might also produce solutions to various crises far sooner than we humans would manage. On the icky side, only luck can predict what will happen if a sufficiently capable artificial intelligence gains sufficient control, whether it is intelligent or not.

Aliens (seriously)
Let me finish with something that sounds outlandish, and literally would be. The answer is never aliens, and yet, someday it will be. That day can be closer. We haven’t found them. They haven’t publicly contacted us. Maybe there’s no one else out there, in which it is a great waste of space. Have I hit the major tropes? In reality, within the last several years, our ability to see into the universe has dramatically improved. It may seem like we’ve seen it all, but I keep in mind that astronomers continue to oversubscribe telescope time because there’s so much that’s unseen. The grand photos are magnificent, and yet are frequently of a patch of sky smaller than a grain of rice held at arms’ length. It is foolish to assume that what we’ve seen is the same everywhere. And then, there’s the UFO (check your knee-jerk reaction) and the recent UAP (Unidentified Aerial Phenomena). The media continues to treat it with giggles and grins; yet the US Defense Department is finally recognizing that they can’t defend against them. Too many US pilots have seen them. The sensors pick them up, yet we can’t catch or get close to them. The common response is that they’d be from stars far away, yet they may also be a lifeform from here, Earth, but in some unexplored corner or depth or whatever that we’ve missed or overlooked or improperly dismissed. I suspect that if they exist they’d come in peace, if they have that concept. But, whether from here, out there, or some other dimension, we’re more likely to witness them now, and we are unprepared to deal with the disruption.

Conclusion
Well, that certainly feels like a core dump. Unpolished, yet maybe that’s the best way to chronicle and summarize my feelings and thoughts on one day in January 2025. Each topic has bookshelves devoted to it, I am sure. It is impossible to research all of them, but I see a danger in picking one and thinking and planning for only dealing with that one. Our world in now interconnected. Many of the issues are interconnected. Working within blinders can be counterproductive. Refugees are a political crisis, but they can be caused by a political crisis and create a climate crisis, and a pandemic, and may convince someone to hack the system in protest. 

Whew. I am glad it is a sunny day, though chilly. As one friend asked; “How do you keep all of this in your head at the same time?” I figure everyone is doing this, or something similar. Everyone has many things to keep in mind. Some people have three jobs, kids, health issues, and uncertain housing. My thoughts may be existential and academic, but there are thousands of homeowners trying to recover from fires and floods who know what really matters in their life: an overwhelming list of unmet necessities. I’ll be thankful relieving a bit of internal mental pressure by delivering this, then getting ready for a dance. We may have much to worry about, but while I’m here, I’ll dance.

PS One other consequence of thinking through so many things is my Exodus/Genesis science fiction series: Firewatcher and Fire Race. See? It does all come together.

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Clarity Break – January 2025

Some moments become short videos on replay inside my memories. During a recent appointment, I said the simple sentence; “I need a vacation.” The therapist somewhat playfully said; “OK. Stop describing anything else. When someone says that, they mean it. Listen to yourself, take a vacation.” A therapist with a sense of humor and timing, very valuable. I’m taking a vacation.

(By the way, one way we stop stigmatizing mental health issues is by recognizing, working on treating them, and not hiding the effort. Being poor is unhealthy. Being poor for twelve years, well, there’s a lot to unwind. I’m glad I have help. Besides, it means my friends get to hear more of the good news while someone else listens to sticky points in the bad news.)

I’m taking a vacation, and I suspect no one would notice if I didn’t mention it, but not mentioning it supports a facade of ‘the tireless worker’. Tireless? Ha! I’m tired. I think I’ll take a vacation.

I planned a pretty good one, I thought. The idea was to take a vacation after I mentioned it. It is too easy to procrastinate taking time off. It is also winter, which narrows the possibilities. Ski areas are booked up and lots of other places are closed down. Ah, but a train ride from Seattle to Pittsburgh would mean no driving, ever-changing scenery (when the Sun wasn’t blocked by clouds or the planet), and a visit with family (details of which I won’t describe.) Hello, Amtrak! Make lots of reservations. Coordinate with everyone else. Get ready. And. And…Amtrak canceled the trip. It’s winter, which evidently makes a difference. Engage contingency plans.

I’m calling it a vacation, but I prefer the term used by podcast partner, Steve Smolinsky – Clarity Break. Vacations can be for fun, or relaxation, or therapy, or – vacations can be for the sake of vacations. Steve has written and talked about something that is obvious and discussed but frequently overlooked. Quiet time, time spent doing something where habits can’t follow breaks habits and lets the mind unwind. Surprisingly, quiet time also lets the quiet parts of the mind finally be heard. Clarity ensues.

But where to go? If the mountains are busy, go to the coast. Even the cold, wet, Olympic Peninsula coast is busy. I forgot about the three-day weekend for MLK Jr. Finally, I found a place relatively close to home, a place I’ve visited but never stayed at: La Push. A few nights in a seaside cabin. Sounds romantic. Ah, but it’s only me. Sounds quiet, except for waves and gulls. 

It also breaks conventions. As I understand it, it is on tribal land, National Park land, and so far on the edge that there may not be internet (gasp!), or hot water (shiver, but maybe only for a night), though I’m hoping for heat and electricity. Stay tuned. I remember winter tent camping. At least I’ll be in a cabin.

I mention all of this even though it is something I’m sure you’ve heard before. Take care of yourself. I edit that to, take care of yourself as you can. I haven’t taken an entire week off in over a decade, and not by choice. Did I use the word ‘poor’ earlier? Yeah. That. 

Taking care of yourself is a necessity, and yet affording it at will can be a luxury. American workers are notorious for not taking all of their vacation time, and I’m not surprised. Even paid time off costs money unless the person stays home and stares at the walls. (Did I mention that other people might benefit from a therapist, too?)

I also know me. Even without the internet, I’ll probably write, and more accurately, type. Losing ideas can be frustrating. As I just mentioned to someone on social media (bluesky?), I’m working on the sequel to Dream. Invest. Live., a sequel to the Exodus/Genesis series, and of course, my blogs and podcast work. It sounds like a lot, but I’ve throttled down to about one-third speed since finishing Fire Race. Oh yeah, and there’s the movie screenplay I’m working on. Yeah. I need a vacation.

The cost of this vacation will not cost wow, but it will feel like it because I am out of practice and still cautious. Poor does that.
This scene from White Christmas came to mind when Phil and Bob talk about how much something is going to cost.
Phil Davis: How much is “wow”?
Bob Wallace: It’s right in between, uh, between “ouch” and “boing”
Fortunately, this trip will be closer to ouch than boing, but if I didn’t take it at all, the hospital bill may be boing and ouch and oh dear.

Dear Therapist, Thanks for the kick in the butt or at least the gentle noogie. I might even get that train trip in later, and there’s a music festival I’d like to dance at, and some friends I haven’t seen in years, and hiking and biking and…and I’ll check back on that financial caution and the world in general. You see, I buy lottery tickets, and some of my stocks look a lot like them.

Cheers. I’ll be back soon.

(PS My apologies for skipping the links and photos and such, but, you see, I’ve got this vacation thing going on.)

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Another Weird And Wild Week – January 2025

I am so thankful for perspective, patience, and diversification. Two of my most recent darling stocks were suddenly jilted by the market. LUNR and QBTS dropped, -7% for LUNR and -36% for QBTS. 36%! Ouch. Eep. Oops. Oh well. That ‘Oh well’ is why I wasn’t responding the way some expected. I’m not saying I liked seeing it happen, but it is handy to check those numbers against their relative performance, be glad I am diversified, and be glad I have cash, just in case.

This week’s activity is particularly timely because I just produced and posted my Semi-Annual Portfolio Exercise. Check it for my unprofessional and unofficial opinion of the companies represented by my stocks. Things looked rosier way back then in 2024.

LUNR has actually had good news. They’re getting to launch their next lunar payload. Very cool. Very exciting, or at least a reason for hoping for a successful mission, as well as the aerospace companion of hoping it doesn’t do something like blow up or fall over. But the stock was down 7%. What’s with that? It is convenient to have one reason, but every stock has its price determined by a multitude of buyers and sellers with just as many motivations. One to pick from is whether a non-governmental CEO is more interested in Mars than the Moon. Whatever.

QBTS announced a 120% increase in revenues. Yay! And the stock went down 36% in one week. This one has an easier explanation. QBTS is selling quantum computing solutions now. Congratulations. A CEO of a different company stated that quantum computing won’t be real for another twenty years. Ah, dude. Check that calendar. A startup like QBTS has great news and a small voice compared to one person at a mega-corp, evidently. QBTS made a factual statement. The other guy made a guess. I’ll stick with the factual statement.

(Thanks, Google Finance.)

Look back a few days, only a few days to my post: A Week To Not Ignore – December 2024.

“A month ago, some stocks got busy, possibly because of the election (Election Impact – 2024). The companies had good news, but I didn’t think it warranted their rise, and I wasn’t complaining.

November 29, 2024 – LUNR up  ~96%, QBTS up ~165% in 1 month
December 20, 2024 – LUNR up ~270%, QBTS up ~ 520% in 6 months
December 27, 2024 – LUNR up ~419%, QBTS up ~761% in 6 months”

Allow me to bring that up to date. 

January 10, 2025 – LUNR up ~326%, QBTS up ~388% in 6 months

Satisfactory?

They could crater. (And yes, I kept in the LUNR pun simply because it was easier than thinking of something to replace it.) They could also rebound. They could return to course. Despite financial analyses, both companies are operating (and creating) industries for which there is no benchmark. No one knows how big the lunar market will be. No one knows how big the quantum computing market will be. For some entertainment, browse the stock discussion boards and find analyses/estimates/guesses/wishes that are multiple times above today’s prices. (LUNR $17.87 , QBTS $5.77) LUNR is a ~$2.7B company. QBTS is a ~$1.5B company. How about $10B? No one knows. Everyone is guessing.

As an investor, my near-term hopes are already exceeded, and I’m willing to wait to see what happens as we slide further into that long-term future.

A recent commenter commented that some of these investments are “all-or-nothing”. Sure. I can understand that perspective. I wrote a book about personal finance, but I do not think many people should invest the way I do. For politeness, I’ll paraphrase a friend who called me a “wild-haired investor.” One thing I find fascinating is contrasting that comment to the ones who consider me stodgy because I invest instead of trade, and the one who described my overall strategy as “get-rich-slowly.” I figure this puts me in the middle. Have I ever described the guy who traded on margin and maxed out his credit card to do it? That’s how far away that edge is. (It didn’t work.)

I write this because, until an investor has experienced those ups and downs, it is too easy to have emotions bob around with every swing. I like the ups. I don’t like the downs. But I’ve been expecting a down because these ups have been so far up.

Let’s see where they go next. You see, I have these other stocks…

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Popular Posts 2024

What’s been popular in 2024? I mean which of my posts on this blog have been popular. Gotta keep it specific, otherwise, go find a more global list in Google.

This blog has been active since November 2008. I’d recently retired, moved to Whidbey Island, bought a house which was my first true home, and was convinced by friends that I should write a book about personal finance because I had retired at 38 years old, and could explain stocks reasonably well. One of my neighbors was Vicki Robin, author of Your Money or Your Life. She agreed, and offered to do a joint launch if I finished in time. Dream. Invest. Live. was born. And then the market crashed, Apple abandoned the software for hosting my blog, I lost access to the blog’s first 200 posts, and started over in September 2010 as I walked across Scotland, which became a different book and blog, Walking Thinking Drinking Across Scotland. 

The Great Recession had begun (which I consider the Second Great Depression). My stocks were hurt, but two rallied to drive my net worth up while others’ went down. AMSC & DNDN both were then the victims of white collar crime. Years later, the criminals were found guilty, but the value had been erased. That and a few other events that were, as friends put it, a perfect storm of bad luck, led me into more than a decade of watching my net worth plummet 98%, little income, and subsequent health issues. Being poor is painful. An attempt at being a realtor was interrupted by the pandemic. It was also interrupted by the fact that I have not been good at sales. It wasn’t until this year when the real estate market had recovered enough for me to sell my home, get out of debt, and back into investing in stocks. 

That’s much of the course of my roller-coaster ride through America’s wealth classes, so far. I’ve started writing that book, partly as a sequel to Dream. Invest. Live. The working title: From Middle-class to Millionaire to Mostly Mudding By. 

Evidently that book is on my mind because all I intended to do was provide an abstract to the list of popular posts in 2024. This prelude does, however, explain which posts were popular, particularly those from previous years. Each post was from a different perspective. At over 1,000 posts, that’s a lot of material. Congratulations to anyone who has read them all. (Anyone?) That’s appropriate as it has become obvious to me that one thing I can provide is a variety of perspectives on some perpetual topics. Watch this blog, and one of my new blogs, TomTheWriter.com, for details and progress. 

But, what did you and other readers find most worth reading?

Over the lifetime (so far) of this blog, the ten most popular posts are:

  • Wither Or Whether MVIS (2020)
  • One Confused ObamaCare Applicant (2013)
  • Trust Your Self (2021)
  • A Bow To Drewslist (2012)
  • Valuing MVIS Looking Back And Forward (2021)
  • An MVIS Rabbit Hole 20 Years Deep (2021)
  • Micro Vision (2011)
  • MicroVision MVIS Valuation Shift (2021)
  • HoloLens2 And MicroVision (2019)
  • MicroVision Before And After (2016)

The list hasn’t changed much from previous years. MVIS is still the hottest topic, even from posts that are years old. This blog appears to be tied to this one company despite a much broader range of topics that I’ve written about. If only MVIS would succeed…

In 2024, the most popular posts were a more current blend.

  • A Tiny Experiment (2024)
  • Fresh Idea – Dockside Tidal Power (2016)
  • LLAP – One Company One Story (2023)
  • Tiny House Choices (2024)
  • My Money (And Almost My House) Lost In The Wire (2024)
  • What Happened To WNDW (2023)
  • Intuitive Machine Intuition (2024)
  • Time To Buy But What (2024)
  • Loving Living Leaving A Tourist Town (2024)
  • For Want Of A Nut – A Zwilling Nut (2023)

What? No MVIS? Well, MVIS hasn’t done anything of note. I’m cheered and intrigued by my Dockside Tidal Power idea remaining popular after almost a decade. Is someone building it? I hope. I hope. The Tiny House interest has been strong enough that it has its own blog (https://www.mytinyexperiment.com/), which will also skew these traffic numbers by being elsewhere as it peels off. I’ve been told that the post about my money being Lost In The Wire was very open and appreciated as I survived a dramatic upset caused by overly secure security measures. Stocks came back, particularly LUNR. On a serious note, I tried to find the humor in being squeezed out of a tourist town. And then, a small topic that attracted lots of attention, Zwilling sent me a sweet set of kitchen poultry sheers as an example of smart customer service.

2025? It’s looking weird. But, we’re practiced at that. Stay tuned, and thanks for being here.

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