Semi Annual Exercise Mid 2012

Posted on June 30, 2012 by Tom Trimbath

Well, these last twelve months have certainly been a surprise and upsetting. Fortunately, by conducting these semi-annual portfolio exercises I can check back and know how the story changed. Trusting to imperfect memories can be delusional.  Unfortunately, replaying the disaster strike does not make the effects go away. Since my 2011 mid year review:

  • AMSC is down by about 50%
  • DNDN is down by about 80%
  • GAIA is completely sold
  • GERN is down by about 50%
  • GGOX.OB has become GIG and has doubledYeah!
  • MVIS is down almost 80%
  • RSOL is down almost 50%.

Why?

AMSC dropped but so did their revenues, though not through normal business problems. AMSC’s revenues dropped 75%, largely because their largest customer backed cancelled orders and is now suspected of stealing AMSC’s intellectual property. Then they tried to compete against AMSC. This one is a highly watched test case in the Chinese courts. Will China protect foreign IP or not? They say they will. This is when they can prove that they do. In any case, the resolution will take years during which AMSC has to recover.

DNDN dropped despite dramatically increasing revenues, but the increase wasn’t dramatic enough. A 20% shortfall resulted in an 80% stock decline. This one had the largest effect on my life. If the stock had only dropped 20% my search for a job and a house buyer wouldn’t be as important.

GAIA went away (Real World Trade GAIA) partly based on these exercises. I could see that they weren’t going where I wanted them to go, so I let them go. That’s investing.

GERN’s decline isn’t a surprise considering the news, but the news was a surprise. They discontinued their stem cell trials and research. I still haven’t heard that complete story yet.

GGOX.OB graduated from de-listed from NASDAQ to re-listed under GIG on AMEX. Congratulations. Their stock doubled even though their revenues were only up 20%, but some may have noticed that they have more than doubled revenues from two years earlier, and that they have new products coming out, and that they are still cheap. The stock buy-back and re-listing didn’t hurt. At least I have one success story with a lot of remaining upside.

MVIS is down, but that’s mostly because of massive dilution made necessary by supplier delays. It may be a simple statement, but it has an enormous effect. I have too many ideas of where it could go next based on more simple good or bad news.

RSOL is down, but they grew revenues by 40%. I think they have a Solyndra headache.

The market reactions to AMSC, DNDN, MVIS, and RSOL are unexpectedly, and I feel disproportionately, negative. Unfortunately, they were my largest holdings and to have two of them down 80%, and two of them down 50% has traumatized my finances, and frequently my emotions. Irrationality is hard to witness, especially when the impact is real and not abstract. Twelve months ago I thought I was on the cusp of seeing AMSC’s cables hit the market, DNDN reporting better revenues and expanding geographically and across the patient population, GERN possibly reporting that they’d helped a paralyzed person move again, and MVIS releasing a marvelous product that had been hidden by an NDA or maybe even releasing a product on schedule. What were the odds that they would all succeed? Small, of course small. What were the odds that they would all drop so much at the same time? Small, of course small; and yet, that is what happened.

The consequence is that since DNDN’s news and move in August 2011, I’ve been looking for a job. (My Jobs Report Month 9) No news yet, but I finally had an interview for an office position. My first in ten months of searching. It is part-time, but part-time is better than no-time. Besides, it is on the island; but, I’m also not the only applicant. And, someone else wants to hire me, if he can raise the money. Anyone want to fund an angel investor foundation or corporation working on innovative and positive solutions for the planet? And, someone else may have found a side door to a place where I keep knocking on the front. In the meantime though, I’ve spent almost everything outside of my IRA, and have had to sell over 75% of my depressed DNDN shares to pay the bills. At this rate, and without another source of income, my only other available asset to sell to generate money is my house; hence, my home is for sale.

My semi-annual exercise is useful. Without it, rewinding the memories could be an exercise in second-guessing and futility. It would be too easy to emotionally beat myself up. Knowing that my situation is a dramatic coincidence of bad luck doesn’t make it easier to pay the bills, but it does make it easier to understand and less personal.

Imagine the flip side. Imagine that equally small percentage possibility that all of the businesses and their stocks would’ve succeeded. It would be wonderful to look back and watch it happen. Me, my home, and many parts of my life would be much better, or at least I wouldn’t be delaying a lot of maintenance and repair (though I did finally splurge and bought glasses.)

What was more likely is what I suspected. Some of the businesses wouldn’t do well. Some would. I suspected that enough would. At least as I type this, I was wrong. The odds didn’t work out that way. Such is the nature of investing.

I’m going on a bit longer than usual here because if I don’t find the money from my business (check out my books, my photos, my consulting, etc.), or from a job (here’s a resume), or from selling my home (drop by for a virtual tour), or from some windfall (hello lottery), then this may be my last semi-annual exercise. The current value of my portfolio (pardon me as I double-check) is probably enough to make it through the rest of this year, but in some scenarios so little would be left that I wouldn’t worry about the exercise. Of course, in that time, enough of my stocks could soon enough rise to the values I think are appropriate, AMSC could clear its legal hurdle, DNDN and or GERN could announce surprisingly good clinical results, and maybe even MVIS could finally release some significantly good news. Google glasses with MVIS inside would be marvelous. So would an iPad with MVIS inside. A rapid rise in DNDN that allows time for the others to reach normal valuations could be enough for me to recover. The odds of enough of that happening are reasonable, but I’ve been living through unreasonable times for so long that I won’t make grand claims. Of course, if things became unreasonably good, well, I’d accept that. Let’s hope I get to continue posting these exercises for years and decades. Live long and prosper. And stay tuned.

Here’s the end of 2012 edition of my semi-annual stock portfolio exercise. It is a long list of links to Investor Village, The Motley Fool, and Silicon Investor because I think the discussion should happen in a broad forum. Feel free to comment here, but also feel free to post links out to other sites as well. One of the greatest resources individual investors have is other individual investors. Our shared voices can be more powerful than any official financial institution.

Investor Village
AMSC
DNDN
GERN
GIG
MVIS
RSOL

The Motley Fool
AMSC
DNDN
GERN
MVIS
RSOL
Economy and Markets

Silicon Investor
AMSC
DNDN
GERN
GIG
MVIS

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Tactical Scrambling

Posted on June 27, 2012 by Tom Trimbath

Do something and get past the jumble in the head. I’ve got a lot on my mind. So do friends and clients. The world is changing. That’s always true, but today’s changes are systemic, redefining paradigms, and are probably permanent. I was overwhelmed before I got out of bed. I stayed under the covers until I sorted out what my first few steps would be. Others I know are entangled with too many choices throughout the day, yet they have to stumble through on someone else’s schedule. We seek stability and clear direction. We seek the next step, but the next step is a tactic, not a strategy. Whenever I can, I remind myself of the goal, the over-arcing strategy; but, in the midst of dodging colliding circumstances the path we follow is chaotic. It may not look refined, but scrambling works. Sometimes that’s the only way to climb the mountain.

A while back I posted about a bit of my scrambling. (excerpt from What Comes Next)
I dropped in on a friend’s shop the other day. The store is busy and business is picking up. They’re scrambling to keep up with demand. As a kind gesture I was sincerely asked what I was doing. Nothing came out of my mouth. Everything tried to spill out at once, and they all collided, creating a blockage in my throat. Eventually I shrugged my shoulders and said, “I’m scrambling.”, and left a while later. It was lunchtime, and in a rare event I went out to lunch. It was a business lunch. I’ll hang my photos in the restaurant for June and July and needed to see how the space was used, where the light fell, and look for anything I might have overlooked in my plan. As I sat there, all of those projects finally lined themselves up and I wrote them out as a list in my notebook. After lunch I went back to revisit my friend and hand over my answer. There were fifteen items on that list, each of which was on the order of writing a book or managing my consulting.

By the way, the photos are up. The Braeburn is a nice place to have them displayed, and yes they are for sale. Drop by if you are on the island.

My scrambling continues. The list is modified. Some items were dropped. Some items were added. Most of them continue, with a disproportionate number coming to fruition this fall. I wonder what will happen this winter. The scrambling remains. The scrambling remains because none of the items have managed to pay the bills. (And because I haven’t found a job or sold the house.) None of the tactics have made overwhelming progress towards my strategic goal of sustaining a thriving lifestyle. Of course, many of them won’t produce fruit until this autumn. So I take lots of steps this way and that in the meantime.

Friends and clients are in similar situations. The details vary dramatically. But changes in the economy, corporate life, the investing community, the environment, and our society are convincing many people to question almost every aspect of their lives. How should they invest their time and money? Should they set goals that are tied to conventional lives with thirty year mortgages, or should they find a new model of living? Most of the conversations are about finding a new way of life.

The greatest variation within the “new way of life” is the degree of disconnection from conventional society. Build a bunker and hide alone? Build an enclave and hide with friends? Go off the grid and find an independent source of income? Buy a piece of land big enough to sustainably feed a family, but stay within a reasonable commute and keep a well-paying job? OR, stay within the city and the system and try to change it from within? One entertaining option is to live aboard a boat. Find a job within a short bus ride of a marina, quite possible beside the Salish Sea, have the city and the short commute; and then cast off if society decides to implode. Most think about sustainably harvesting the land. Why not the sea? (These are the kinds of questions I’ll probably hear more about at the Money And Life conference this weekend.)

Tackling such considerations and choosing a dramatically different lifestyle is impressive. Until we get this immortality problem solved, each life is finite, and the sooner the decisions are made, the longer their benefits can be appreciated. I applaud those that take on the task early in life.

Yet, as impressive and as powerful as such strategic thinking and actions are, worrying it too much, considering too many possibilities, can produce too much stress and may actually get in the way of making progress; e.g. Paralysis by Analysis. It is good to have a sense of urgency, but if that feeling becomes overwhelming it can induce rash moves that aren’t tactical or strategic. I learned a saying in karate, “Do not move unless it is to your advantage.” Don’t move simply to move. That’s where you can lose your balance.

Investors and paycheck employees are in the forefront of change. Corporations have lost some of the public’s faith and expectation of stability. Why buy stock if you can’t trust the management to have similar ethics and morals? Why work towards a retirement plan if you don’t think the company, its industry, or the structure of corporations will continue much longer? Trying to plan a life is hard enough. Trying to plan a life while almost every major institution is changing is impossible. There are too many variables for one person to comprehend.

I have too many ifs in my life too. (Check my previous post.) Rather than try to optimize a path that encompasses every possibility, I’ve decided to take simpler steps because they are more manageable. Each day is a long list of disparate items that are leading to various near-term goals that can all be milestones along the way to my main strategic goal. Live long and prosper. (Thank you Mr. Spock.)

Taking the smaller steps can ease some of the stress because at least some progress is made, and if the steps are small, no one will go too far astray. Each step can be a lesson. If you want to buy stock, buying a little will show you what it’s like. If you want to try changing the system from within, start a conversation with management. If you want to step away from the conventional paycheck world, see if you can take an extended vacation, leave of absence, or a sabbatical. Yes, there is a nice waterfront off-the-grid house with acreage and a dock that I’d like to own, but in the meantime, I am going to take lots of little steps, sometimes in different directions until the fog clears enough to reveal a straighter path. Until then, I’ll continue scrambling, tactically.

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Serendipity Aboard Adventuress

Posted on June 23, 2012 by Tom Trimbath

Well, that didn’t go according to plan, and that happens every time serendipity is involved. It was fun. Let’s do it again! Thursday evening I was on a tall ship under full sail, the boat heeled over to the gunwales, as a 133 foot long ship with almost as much sail area as my yard, plowed through the waves under excellent wind and a surprise visit by sunshine. The nature programs, my presentation, and every other plan except joy was left in the lee. It all worked out better than expected. I never planned to be there, but that’s the way the world works if I let it. I’ve been pondering that since I made it back to dry land, with wet pant legs and a soaked shoe.

Tall Ship Adventuress – Main sail

The Adventuress is a tall ship that sails out of Port Townsend because “We envision a future where everyone values Puget Sound and chooses to act as stewards of its treasured waters.” They (Sound Experience) are also excellent stewards of the boat. Frequently they take people out for evening or weekend cruises. The ship can handle it. It was designed to sail to Antarctica and back and did. Of course, it is almost 100 years old and they’d appreciate any help or donations you could provide. I was aboard to talk about the land, not the sea. I am a site steward for one of Whidbey Camano Land Trust’s properties (Hammon’s Preserve). They invited me aboard to talk about the Land Trust (the land feeds the sea), and Whidbey (which is across the sound from where we sailed. Serendipity got me there.

The short version of a slice of my life. Spend less than I made. Invested the rest ala Peter Lynch. Aligned my spending with my values ala the 9-Step program in Your Money Or Your Life by Joe Dominguez and Vicki Robin. Semi-retired early. Moved to Whidbey Island. Met my new neighbor who’d just moved to the island too, Vicki Robin. Our books come out together. The revised Your Money Or Your Life goes on to become a best-seller, and includes me as a case study. Dream. Invest. Live., by me with a back cover blurb from Vicki Robin, goes, well, nowhere because a book about investing ala Peter Lynch doesn’t do well as the market crashes. Despite that I end up on the board of New Road Map Foundation, an advocate of the 9-step financial integrity program. New Road Map gets interested in expanding the advocacy programs beyond text by going to video too, so because of my photography background I get sent to Collaborations for Cause, a workshop for advocacy via multi-media. There I meet the executive director of Sound Experience, the charity that tends the Adventuress and the vision of marine stewardship. I tell her about New Road Map and my photography, but when she hears about the Land Trust she invites me along for a cruise if I’ll give a talk. Thursday was the cruise and I was aboard. So was Vicki. And I made my talk a total of five sentences. We were on a tall ship with an able crew, an eager set of passengers, good wind, and sun. I wasn’t going to get in the way of that. Besides, I pay attention to big hints and don’t get in their way. I greet them as friends and see where they’ll take me.

Congratulations if you read that entire paragraph. I could graph it out, but the interconnections are more entwined than I listed. The key is that a wonderful part of life happened by following a path that could not be planned.

I was at the conference because of finance and photography. I’ve gotten to know Vicki by reading her book, luckily moving into the same neighborhood at the same time, working on books together, and dancing. I am a site steward for the land trust because I moved again and found myself near a vantage point for my photos of Cultus Bay. Whidbey Camano Land Trust had nothing to do with the conference, but they were the organization that ended up with the best chance for a benefit. None of that was planned. Maybe the cancelled talk is merely postponed to a time when there are fewer distractions and the presenter (me?) has a better idea of the speaking arrangements. The decks of tall ships are working spaces, not the rigid orthogonal architecture of most classrooms or lecture halls. There’s no way to know where it all leads.

Cultus Bay from Hammon’s Preserve

Plans work best when the world is orderly. Serendipity doesn’t care about order or chaos. It makes things happen regardless of the circumstances. We’ve just been through turmoil. My plans were scrambled, and now I am scrambling. I’m not alone. Even nations and global organizations are looking for stability to regain enough control to re-establish plans. We’ve become accustomed to life flowing in prescribed channels to agreed upon rules, but that is recent and not typical of our history. We travel around in cars down paved and bounded paths. We reside and work within rectangular boxes. We expect the same from financial plans, relationships, and institutions. People who spend time in nature know reality doesn’t work that way. Trails wind to accommodate contours. Sailors steer according to wind and waves, tides and currents. Perhaps my time in nature prepared me for this next adventurous phase of my life that follows after apparently suspended plans.

The crew of the Adventuress are excellent at sailing through uncertain seas. A part of me continues to be organized and attempts to be unobtrusive. Vicki and I took the ferry to get to Port Townsend. We drove for almost an hour, to ride across the sound on a ferry, to sail on a tall ship, to find out that we got the schedules wrong. We thought the Adventuress would return in time for us to catch the last ferry back. We were wrong. I just assumed we’d try another day when the schedules meshed. No worries. The crew took our situation as a challenge. They assured us that after a couple of hours on the water they’d find a convenient break, lower a boat, and have a member of the crew motor us to shore – that is, as long as we didn’t mind getting our feet wet. They were sweet, enthusiastic, and earnest. I’ve stayed in nice hotels where the staff is accommodating, but officious. The crew of Adventuress was sincerely eager. Then we went sailing, the nature programs were cancelled because we were having so much fun, and I was convinced that in the exuberance we’d been forgotten. Maybe that was an opportunity to visit a friend for the night (and maybe get some dancing in, but that’s another story.)

I was wrong. After a couple of excellent hours, after I did actually talk to a few folks about the land trust, the ship was pointed into the wind, a boat let over the side, they hung a ladder, and three of us climbed down into a high-speed rubber raft for a fast, choppy trip back to shore. Vicki sat up front and caught most of the waves, and laughed. I checked in with our skipper. This ride was nothing. He’s done the same thing often, at sea, in the open ocean, going to ship to ship. He ran the boat up to the beach, and it was only my clumsiness that splashed a foot in the water soaking one pant leg and one shoe.

His attitude, the entire crews’ character, is inspirational. As a nation, a society, and as a species we are trying to maneuver our way back to a thriving world. I see it playing out as people try to make sense of their finances. Vicki’s new book is about making sense of food, the simple idea of aligning eating with values, and the powerful idea of everyone eating local. It is also playing out in every aspect of policy and personal action. The concept of charting a new course is cliche, but sailing may be the best analogy for how we are going to get to where we want to be, and even accommodating a few special needs along the way.

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Apple Pixar Dendreon

Posted on June 20, 2012 by Tom Trimbath

I’m getting ready for more than enough things. Cleaning up and out because my house is for sale. Compiling my notes for my semi-annual stock review. Consulting with friends about life and money. Wondering about how my life has gone, why I made the choices I made, and what’s next. There’s a struggle within. Logically and spiritually I think everything will work out well. It’s been so long since I had substantial financial good news that my emotions are having a tougher time buying into the optimism. Then I decided to unpack some long unopened boxes, and memories of optimism returned. I pulled out rare shareholder only Pixar movie posters. They inspired a mental connection from Apple through Pixar with some hope for Dendreon. Yeah, it surprised me too. Look at what I am selling now.

Pixar shareholder movie poster – Toy Story 2 Jessie

I bought stock in Pixar back around the time of Toy Story. Much of the art community dismissed them because the movies would be computer graphics, not hand-drawn images. Most of the investment community was making fun of them because it looked like a rich kid wasting his money. Back then, Steve Jobs didn’t have the highest credibility in the movie industry or the business world. I saw some of their early short movies and thought they were onto something disruptive. I go into that case study in greater depth in my book, Dream. Invest. Live. (which is a sales pitch, but also an expedient way to get on with this story.) For those early years Steve Jobs owned more than 50% of the company, so he could do anything he wanted. He had fun. Annual reports were colorful and were delivered with movie posters and videos. Investing doesn’t have to be dull.

Pixar shareholder movie poster – A Bug’s Life

The movies surpassed my expectations. The stock rose reasonably well. About the time it looked like the stock would finally reflect the value of the company, Disney bought them out. Steve Jobs became the largest DIS shareholder. The creative folks at Pixar got good jobs at Disney, basically taking over animation. The PIXR shareholders received a small premium, and could wait to become DIS shareholders. I don’t like owning complicated companies, so I sold and diversified. In the end, my profit was a very nice return, and a pile of movie posters. It was also a reminder that disruptive and successful companies can change the world – without necessarily having a similar financial impact for the majority of the shareholders. Buyouts interrupt investing success.

Pixar shareholder movie poster – The cast of Toy Story 2

Apple was never bought out. And as much as they use AAPL stock as an image of wealth in Forrest Gump, relative to other computer stocks, AAPL was a dull stock for its first decade or so. I remember. I owned it then. I bought AAPL because I’d seen, then used, then bought a Mac 512k. These folks were onto something. I debugged my friend’s IBM-ATs. I programmed PDP-11s and CRAYs at work. But I knew that Apple would succeed. Then they got rid of Steve Jobs, and in protest I got rid of my AAPL. I was glad to see them bring Steve Jobs back eventually, but I was comfortable with my move because I’d invested in other companies in the meantime. Apple spent two decades changing the way the world works, but within the public markets, the stockholders didn’t significantly benefit until the new millennium.

It is easy to look to the past and ignore a repeat happening in the present. Somehow DNDN came to mind. It was probably because I was compiling my notes for my semi-annual stock review.

Here’s a snippet from my first draft,
“The first such treatment, Provenge, was approved for prostate cancer. Clinical trials suggest the treatment can be used over a wider patient population, and across more cancers (e.g. lung, breast, ovarian, colo-rectal, renal, bladder). The side effects are minimal in comparison to chemo and radiation. The overall cost is less too, though the individual treatments are expensive.”
And yet, the industry and financial community focus on the shortfalls rather than the potential, so the stock languishes. Macs had trouble gaining market share too. Pixar lacked credibility, and even when they succeeded with Toy Story, it was discounted as luck. It wasn’t until the iMac, it wasn’t until the fifth movie that the companies were given credit for their accomplishments.

Dendreon’s technology is impressive. Maybe they haven’t found their dynamic leader yet. If the treatments continue to cover more of the patient population, geographically and across other cancers, then Dendreon will be truly disruptive, and eventually DNDN will reflect that value. There’s no guarantee of that success, but there wasn’t for Pixar or Apple either, which was one reason their stocks were undervalued for so long.

Selling DNDN to pay my bills is very demoralizing. It’s happening at a time when I’ve having to look for a job, and has led me to selling my home. It is demoralizing because I think DNDN may be following a similar path to AAPL or PIXR. I don’t know which. AAPL finally gained traction and the stock that traded around $15 for so long is now trading at $582. They maintained independence, vision, and execution, and have been rewarded. PIXR no longer exists. Pixar is known around the world and is an acclaimed success. The stock though was absorbed. If Dendreon maintains independence, vision, and execution, then the article Is Dendreon a $360 Stock – Or Is That Too Low? will be considered prescient. If Dendreon is bought out, hopefully just as many people will medically benefit, but the shareholders will miss the rewards. I’d like to hold DNDN, give it the time it deserves, and then use those rewards to fund a longer, more prosperous life. With that in mind, if I had discretionary cash, I’d probably buy more. (For the deeper, less optmistic story, read Corporations Meet Owners DNDN 2012)

Misfortunately, I don’t have discretionary cash. That’s why I am hunting for a job and selling the house. That’s also why I am taking those shareholder posters out of the back of the closet, flattening a few to photo, and then selling them. A quick look around the web shows that some have bought them for hundreds of dollars each.

Pixar shareholder movie poster – Toy Story 2? Woody and Buzz

Be first in line folks. I have a few extra that are in the original wrappers, and the original boxes. Maybe this PIXR dividend will help me hold onto my DNDN, or at least buy me some movie tickets and popcorn.

By the way, I also have copies of the uncommon copy of A Bug’s Life that has Hopper on the cover. Rumor has it the animators used Steve Jobs mannerisms in Hopper’s animation. Employees having fun with their dynamic leader. It happens.

VHS of A Bug’s Life with Hopper on the cover (original wrapping)

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Money And Life On Whidbey

Posted on June 16, 2012 by Tom Trimbath

It’s happening. Economies are changing. People are changing. Change is happening. Even people with jobs and a bit of discretionary income are changing, or preparing to change. They know that assumptions about economies, currencies, and careers are very likely to change. That’s why something else is happening. At the end of this month there will be a “collaborative program”, “a convening of change agents working toward a new economic and social paradigm.” The first Money & Life event is being held at the Whidbey Institute. (A collaborative program of New Road Map and Whidbey Institute.) Even the concept of convention versus seminar versus workshop is changing. This is a new kind of event, and that’s appropriate because we are entering a new kind of world.

A Collaborative Program of New Road Map and Whidbey Institute

Have you noticed the change? It isn’t 1952 anymore.

Okay, allow me to back off a little bit. “A new kind of world” does not mean colonizing space (but sign me up for that discussion!). The new world we are entering is the new economic world. How can people change their lives to respond to the financial and social upsets we’ve encountered? If enough people change their lives, then society has changed. What’s that new society look like? This is a new kind of event because no one can stand before the rest and say that they’ve been there and have all the answers. We are building the answers together. And if we succeed we will create a new kind of world. We’ll definitely create a new society. And we’ll probably change our physical world. I doubt that we’ll change planets, but we’ll probably treat this one a lot better.

I’ll be there. I even get to co-host one of the talks about Individual Investor Advocacy, one arm of change that is like a tug throwing a rope over the bow of a container ship and trying to change its course. It works if done right. Others will talk about less corporate topics: Shifting Social Welfare Institutions, Tuning into Collective Wisdom, Indigenous Economics, etc. The key, as I understand it, is that those of us who show up are collaborators, equals, people who are actively engaged in change and who have something to give and something to gain. We are all expected to learn from each other. Podiums and pontifications happen elsewhere.

Regular readers know of my situation. I guess the post, Am I Financially Independent, is the quickest primer for those just recently finding this blog. My situation has made me acutely aware of the stable and unstable elements of the economy. Instead of listing them all I think of the changes in terms of thirty year mortgages.

Back in 1982 someone took out a mortgage and dutifully paid every month. How much has changed since then? Today my house is on the market for $291,000. Fifteen years ago it was about half that, $157,000. Seven years earlier it was closer to $100,000. In 1982 it was probably much cheaper. So housing prices are up. That’s not a surprise; but the world in 1982 was familiar with double digit inflation, double digit interest rates (a great time to buy bonds in retrospect), the threat of Mutually Assured Destruction, acid rain, ozone holes, the resurgence of America in space, and a young guy named Tom Trimbath heading back to college to get his masters in aerospace and ocean engineering. Personal computers were brand new. Arpanet, the predecessor to the Internet, was still alive. Reagan was President. Everyone remembered Watergate. Thirty years ago it was hard to buy stock without an expensive broker and research required visits to the library. Single digit interest and mortgage rates, the collapse of the Soviet Union, the retiring of the space shuttle without a replacement, and me becoming an artist and consultant were unimaginable.

None of us know where we will be in thirty years. Thirty year financial plans are extrapolations that quickly become academic. Currencies, shorelines, national identities, corporations may all change by 2042. What do we do if food or fuel become more scarce? Within thirty years technology will change enough to be unrecognizable. (If you really want to contemplate the extremes read The Singularity Is Near, by Ray Kurzweil.) I pity any sci-fi writer who is trying to write about 2042. If it takes them three years to write the book then we’ll be 10% of the way there. I don’t even want to have to guess what cell phones will be like in three years.

What we do know is that there is a general feeling that things will change because we’ve lived through change and have witnessed its acceleration.

Earlier this week I was talking with a client about security. Back when I was a millionaire I researched most of the financial instruments and how they’d survived through history. I learned that perfect security is an illusion. My recent life has helped prove that. Currencies can crash. Assets frozen. Every financial instrument had a moment when it failed. Bad luck happens. But of course it makes sense to strive for that security because doing something increases the odds of sustainability. But there are no guarantees.

I’m hearing a lot more from people who finally understand their basic needs are food, shelter, etc., not what they see in the ads. They are living within normal society, commuting to regular jobs, but they are more likely to eliminate their debt, live where they can grow some food, get off the grid within reason. Those are securities that are far less abstract.

This is the beginning, or the resurgence, of a trend; yet, it remains a minority. As the conventional economy recovers the majority have returned to their jobs, the malls, the couch, and their comfort zones. A significant minority sees that as yet another illusion. The Money & Life event at Whidbey Institute is for the people who see past that illusion and are interested in defining that new world. I’m glad to be included. (And happy it is just up the road within bicycling distance.)

The easy guess about the future is to say that the more things change the more they stay the same. In the last fifteen years or so I’ve watched the investment world bounce around as normal, but have also watched financial deregulation undermine the integrity of the markets while generating massive wealth for a narrowing segment of the population. The fundamentals of individual investing persist, but the growth in the excesses can’t persist for thirty more years. Maybe we’ll return to a more regulated market, but only after a more significant upset. I doubt that the total system will collapse from extreme dysfunction, but if it does, something familiar will remain. The global guesses are tough, but personal answers exist, and if they don’t, we’ll create them. Some say that currencies will fail, that money won’t exist; but, life will persist and thinking and acting now can help make a better society happen then. Step one: Ask a lot of questions. Step two: listen for answers. Come to Money and Life on Whidbey and do both.

Disclosure: I’m Board Secretary for The New Road Map Foundation, aka FinancialIntegrity.org.

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Corporations Meet Owners DNDN 2012

Posted on June 13, 2012 by Tom Trimbath

Today, Dendreon had its annual shareholders meeting (what I shorten to ASM out of habit, but the real title is Annual Meeting of Stockholders.) Despite images of corporate America, no trumpets blared, no champagne flowed, very little gold was on display. At least that was the case for the public meeting. Considering how much management is paid it wouldn’t be surprising to learn that caviar was involved after the public left. Corporate America is caricatured, and a caricature is an abstraction. I like to walk in and check on reality. Sometimes the caricature isn’t too far off.

The meeting was held at Seattle’s Art Museum, affectionately known as SAM. The ASM was held at SAM. Nice place. If I wasn’t rushing around catching ferries and buses, and being driven by the desire to write, I might have hung around to look at Art. But, evidently I am a writer and an investor to the point that I attended without breakfast (gotta catch the right ferry to catch the right bus) and without lunch (when do the buses head from downtown America back to my island so I can write?). Two hours each way, I sympathize with the commuters who do that every day.

The total trip took six hours. The meeting took one. For those that want the details about the meeting, head out to the DNDN boards on The Motley Fool, Investor Village, and Silicon Investor. I post the full notes there so comments and replies can benefit broader audiences. For those that want a bit of the emotion and culture shock, stay tuned.

I’ve blogged before about the culture shock of traveling to Merika. Island life is stereotypically slow, quiet, and casual. Thirty years ago, Seattle was slow, quiet, and casual. Now, it is frantic, noisy, and populated with fashionistas. People from NYC and LA may disagree. Imagine the shock I’d undergo if I went to the big cities. It wasn’t always that way. Very few wanted to move to Seattle in 1980. I did because I’d landed a nice job at Boeing Commercial Airplanes. I was a young aerospace engineer and learned the trade on 747s. Suits weren’t required, or at least it didn’t appear that way. I dealt with computers. They didn’t care how I dressed. Microsoft, Starbucks, and Frazier may have changed Seattle.

About 100 people showed up for today’s Dendreon meeting. Only about a third weren’t in suits and such. In general, the casually dressed sat in the back, and were the individual investors, not the officers, directors, or financiers. Young companies tend to have small meetings. A hundred is typical until some spike in popularity that swells the crowd into the thousands. That was fun watching happen at Microsoft and Starbucks.

I attend the meetings to see the people. Are the officers happy to see individuals show up, or are they a nuisance? Does management mingle or cluster? Are employees attending, and what’s their mood? I want data about the company. That is the purpose of the meeting. The owners get to hear how their company is being managed; but, I also know that corporate speak can conceal instead of reveal. I show up anyway. They might actually say something, and even if they don’t, the crowd reaction can be very educational.

This meeting was more caricature and stereotype than usual, even moreso than MicroVision‘s from last week. The suits talked amongst themselves. I saw very little interaction. There was even a roped off section, a security guard (possibly Seattle Police), a photo ID check at check-in, and specified rules for expulsion. They weren’t called “rules for expulsion” on the sheet, but someone described them to me that way.

The business presentation was clinically clean. Previous meetings threw up disclaimers, and then tried to educate the audience. This meeting had the necessarily identical disclaimer, but then said far less. The change felt similar to the transfer within ICOS as it passed from the passionate founder’s era, to the detailed data development phase, and then to the corporate buyout phase. The passion and personal connection faded at each phase. I felt uneasy at that time too.

The unscripted parts are the most revealing, and that’s why the question and answer period is so intriguing. Go to the boards for the longer list. Allow me to highlight one item that exemplified cultural collisions.

In response to a question about the stock price, the CEO noted that no one else in the room wanted the price to go higher than he did. I almost said something out loud, but then remembered the rules for expulsion. In large part because of DNDN’s collapse I have been looking for a job (see My Jobs Report Month 9), am having to sell my house (see Home For Sale Alas), and have never had more uncertainty in my life (see Too Many IFs). I contend that he is not having to sell his house to find money for living expenses, is not looking for a job, and has not had to sell off 66% of his shares and most of an IRA in the interim. I strongly suspect that returning DNDN to $60 would have a much greater affect on my life than it would on his.

There is a disconnect within some companies, where the upper management seem disconnected from other economic realities. In one edit of my book (Dream. Invest. Live. – the basis of this blog) I recount the story of another company’s board bemoaning his water bill. He had a house in the southwest. Irrigating the lawn was costing him too much. He complained about the water rates. He didn’t question watering the desert. He didn’t recognize that his water bill was more than some people’s living expenses. He acted as if everyone has such issues. The other folks sitting with me in the back row raised eyebrows too.

I think one of America’s strengths is that individuals can participate in investing. Yet, there are too many examples of excessive corporate compensation and a disconnect with the folks in the back row. I think part of the problem is that the compensation doesn’t seem excessive from within that class that is caricatured, yet the more they receive, the larger the gap becomes. At times like that I wish corporate voting was based on one vote per shareholder instead of one vote per share. But I don’t expect that to happen.

This has been a long day, and while I spent this time to learn about the clinical and financial aspects of Dendreon, I think I learned more about how segmented America has become: rich and poor, urban and rural. Shareholders own corporations, which is one lever that can make the necessary changes. Citizens control a country, and our votes are one way we can affect change. I wonder how this will turn out.

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Help Find A Friend A Job – Jennifer Hooper

Posted on June 9, 2012 by Tom Trimbath

Welcome to a new category within my blog. It’s not just about me. Recently I’ve blogged about my situation, selling my home, the unlikely simultaneous (hopefully temporary) lack of sufficient success in my stock portfolio, my business revenues, and my job search. I use myself as an example that gets past the statistics. There is great uncertainty in my life.  People are having tough times. Usually I say that in a general way for the sake of discretion, but I realized that some of my friends might welcome the opportunity to speak up and have their story told too. So, I decided to ask a few if they’d be willing to answer a few questions. People are more than their resumes. Maybe this is another way to get to know them, and help find a friend a job.

Jennifer Hooper, a friend who lives on Whidbey, is brave enough to be the first to answer the questions. Bravery, right there is a characteristic that wouldn’t show up on a resume.

1. Who are you? No, really, not the job titles, but who are you?
I am an artist and mentor.

2. What are your dreams?
My dream is to make a good living writing for children, from online posts to picture books to young adult novels, and use that as a vehicle through which I connect with and mentor young people.

3. How have you been getting by?
Pet-sitting, house-sitting, and helping take care of horses along with some other odd jobs. Squeek squeek squeek.

4. What title fits you that would never be picked up by a resume robot?
Writer for Children and Teenagers
Quirky Mentor

5. What job jazzed you the most?
The one-on-one mentoring I got to do while I was an Assistant Professor at a university in Los Angeles

6. Did you leave your last job or did it leave you?
It left me and everyone else on the campus. The university was slowly closed over the course of two years due to financial issues.

7. Have you learned anything, either formally or informally, in the meantime?
I’ve learned how to write. And I continue to learn how not to write.

8. What projects have you gotten done in the meantime?
I have written (but not illustrated) four children’s picture books and am about halfway finished with a novel for young readers. I haven’t submitted anything to a publisher yet.

9. How else do you keep yourself busy?
I have spent much more time with my family, some of whom live in the area.
I have spent a good deal of time focusing on, integrating, and upleveling (if you will — though that sounds rather lame) my spirit and ideas of spirituality. Reading, study, meditation, and connecting with the land by walking and being in it are all important components of that.
I have developed a method of working with watercolors and ink that I really enjoy.

10. How can folks find you?
Through you and this blog!

I also know that she is intelligent and wise, and succeeds at remaining positive. She is passionate about her art and is pragmatic, insightful, and articulate about the process. I’ve learned a lot by listening to her stories about her acting career and the differences between movies and the stage. If you want those details, maybe you should talk to her. If is also obvious that she understands frugality, the appreciation of the precious resources of time, money, and personal energy.

That is only an introduction to Jennifer. Like she said, you’re welcome to contact her through me or through the blog comments.

A note to my friends: If you’re having a tough time finding a job and want to participate, send me an email. I have no idea if this category will grow, or if this is a one-time experiment. I don’t know how often I will post the responses. It has to fit in amongst the various projects that I’m pursuing. Stay tuned. Good luck.

A note to bloggers: You’re welcome to pick up this idea too. Maybe using the same title, Help Find A Friend A Job, will help spread the idea. The more people hear the stories, the less likely they’ll see unemployment as a statistic or the unemployed as a stereotype. During the Great Depression people walked door-to-door asking for work. That is happening again, but maybe moving some electrons will be more effective. We might as well try. It would feel good to succeed.

Serendipity note: After getting this idea and working through it with Jen, I heard a news report on the radio. One of the local public radio stations (either KUOW or KPLU) did a follow-up interview from a piece about the unemployed. The person they checked in on found that his backup food business flourished, he got lots of interest in his engineering skills, and he got his old job back. Evidently story does matter.

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Corporations Meet Owners MVIS 2012

Posted on June 7, 2012 by Tom Trimbath

Welcome back my friends to the show that never ends. It’s June and time for the MicroVision Annual Stockholder’s Meeting (more correctly the annual meeting of shareholders.) It is the time for the owners of the company to hear from the people they hired about how well the company is being run. As usual, it was more sales pitch than business critique. But I get ahead of myself. The ability to drop in and listen is a key advantage to investing locally. Every year I do this if I can. You can too. Corporations aren’t abstractions. They aren’t people, but people populate them; and people are the best way to learn about the company.

For those that want the details, head out to the MVIS boards on The Motley Fool, Investor Village, and Silicon Investor. I post the full notes there so comments and replies can benefit broader audiences.

I encourage people to attend the meetings when they are convenient. Just showing up is a learning experience, and great people watching. Drag out the stereotypes and watch the suits gather in one corner, the fashion plates trying to relax in tiny seats, folks in business casual that may be employees, and the motley crew of individual investors who can and do dress anyway they want. MicroVision’s meeting didn’t have any fashionistas. They tend to show up at companies like Microsoft or Starbucks and may be early investors who hung on long enough. Granted that is just the stereotype. Living around Seattle means getting comfortable with the idea that the guy in shorts might be a billionaire. It breaks down the class structure in some fun ways. But that’s another story or five.

A more useful exercise was watching the way people avoided or were attracted to the various groups. Sometimes the CEO is a star with a crowd gathered as soon as they walk in. Other times they are avoided by all except the other suits. There was a bit of both today. What I missed were the demos. Some companies can’t have demos. Biotechs aren’t going to hand around pathogens. But consumer electronics and retail firms can have fun. The Starbucks meetings were the best, back when this tea drinker owned a bit of SBUX. Free food, good music, and a fun atmosphere. Rising stock prices helped. MicroVision’s meetings have been fun as they’ve developed the technology. I’ve seen projectors that fit inside cell phones, eyewear displays that pre-date Google by years, videos drawn on my retina (really quite natural), innovative gaming guns, tiny cameras, and user interfaces that worked in air with the flick of a finger. Very cool. This year that didn’t happen, and that told me something. Whether I mis-interpret it is my own consequence, but it is an insight delivered for free and not filtered by Wall Street analysts and spin doctors.

Going to meetings is not for everyone. It can be dull. I’m naturally curious so I always learn something, even if it is in what they didn’t say. Today’s meeting didn’t have a financial report. Evidently they don’t think that’s necessary at a stockholder’s meeting. I wonder if they will finally produce one when they have good news, but not before.

It was a bit of a trudge. Get up at 4:45, thankfully catch a ride to the ferry with a friend at 5:30, jump onto the bus that doesn’t wait long, try to figure out what and how to pay, jump onto another bus that doesn’t wait long and do the same, walk in at 7:30 and early enough for the demos, sign in, and find that there will be no demos. The demos will be part of the 9:00 presentation. Hang out with other shareholders, because the demos and employees aren’t available and because I can learn more from investors than from managers, and finally settle into my favorite seat in the back of the room. Back there we can resort to high school and pass messages back and forth, but these messages are like the asides delivered by Stephen Colbert’s “The Word”. I didn’t get home until 3:00 because of a good lunch and a missed bus.

Without the demos, and with such a small company, the audience dispersed quickly; but not before business cards were traded and lunches arranged. Individual investing can be solitary and intimidating, but online discussion boards provide community, and meeting off-line provides confidence. Each investor can only know a bit, but collectively a group of investors can produce better insights and analyses than the major financial institutions; especially, because they tend to overlook small companies. Investing benefits from gaining advantage, and community is inexpensive, powerful, and can be enjoyable. Besides, the price is right.

Oh yeah, and don’t forget the goodies. At some meetings I’ve been given about $40 worth of freebies. Smart retailers know that shareholders are also customers and keeping the customers/owners happy is a good idea. MicroVision gave out pens. Well, it isn’t much. Someone else snagged most of the ones around me as he walked out, but I grabbed a couple extra for the first MVIS friends that I meet. It isn’t much, but at least for a while I suspect it is the closest we will get to a dividend.

Next week is the Dendreon meeting, and this year they are actually going to have it in Seattle, you know, where the company is based? DNDN’s trading at $6, down from $55, yet the treatment seems to work. This will be interesting.

Stay tuned.

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Would You Buy More

Posted on June 6, 2012 by Tom Trimbath

Want some advice? I don’t give it. The SEC, state regulations, and respect for professionals suggest that if people want financial advice they should go to certified financial planners and such. (Have you met Mike Brady?) I’m not even an “and such.” I’m simply a person who sees the opportunities in the stock market, has usually benefited from them, and am unfortunately currently out of synch with them. Okay, I also wrote a book about my style of personal finance, Dream. Invest. Live. But I don’t give advice. I do, however, ask people questions and let them answer for themselves. An answer that comes from the inside is far more valuable than one from the outside.

A friend and fellow investor asked me about some of the stocks we have in common: AMSC, DNDN, MVIS. So they asked me, “Should I buy more?” And they know me, so they knew to interrupt me when I started to respond with, “Well, I don’t tell anyone else what to do.” So they rephrased the question. “Tom, if you had the money (and they’re sensitive to the fact that I don’t), would you buy more?” Allow me to rephrase the conversation into something more general. The stocks are down. Is this the time to buy low that leads to selling high? And of course, only people from the future know for sure. Every response comes out as a dodge.

Would I buy more? Me, personally? Yes. No. Maybe.

Yes.
If I was working from discretionary capital, money I could afford to lose, I’d return to my standard criteria. I’d look for companies that are in positively disruptive businesses, expected significant revenue growth, and that have little or no debt. I’d check “the present value of future revenues discounted for risk” and compare that to the current market cap. If it looked like a deal, I’d consider buying. The general market is recovering, but I know of many small companies that have been overlooked. I’ll paraphrase the CEO of f5 Networks (FFIV) from a stockholders meeting he chaired after the internet bubble burst. He wasn’t allowed to directly comment on the company’s stock price, but he did offer this insight. “Given conventional business measures in a normal market environment our earlier valuation was higher than to be expected. Given conventional business measures in a normal market environment our current valuation is much lower than to be expected. We can not say if conventional measures or normal markets are applicable anymore.” FFIV had gone from over $100 down to $3. I bought along the way and rode it back to $40. It is now trading at $100, but it split, so its pre-split equivalent is $200. Maybe now is just like then, or maybe not.

No.
My money is so tight I’m staying home more, using the bicycle instead of the car if I can, and enjoying Netflix instead of the local $7 theater. And yet, I am delaying bills as long as possible because the optimist in me knows that, if I am right, the stocks will eventually recover, and that frugality and time are my greatest tools. An extra week can mean a lot to a stock price. That hasn’t worked well, but MVIS’s recent movements are encouraging. It is up about 150% in the last few days. Three more weeks of that and I am back to break-even. Three more weeks beyond that and I am almost back to enough. Hey. It could happen. Please?

Maybe.
If my house, my home, sells for the listing price, I’ll be able to pay off the mortgage and the credit card, and have about a year’s living expenses. In that case, I’d probably put some money back into the market. I also played an interesting mind game with myself. What if the house sells for enough to pay off the mortgage and a year’s living expenses, but not the credit card? The credit card rate is double digit. I expect the stocks to return better than that because they are so low (relative to my guesstimates). Simple arithmetic suggests that it makes more sense to put the money where it generates the highest interest rate. Yet, even then I would balk. Maybe I’d put some in the market and pay off some of the debt. I won’t worry the details because the question is moot until the house sells.

If or when the house sells. If or when I get a job. If or when my investments recover. If or when my business becomes sufficiently profitable. If or when some combination of those IFs and WHENs, and as I wrote recently there are too many of them for me to realistically contemplate. (Too Many IFs) If the house hasn’t sold, I haven’t found a job, my investments haven’t recovered, and my business isn’t profitable are an unlikely set of circumstances; and yet that it is where I sit as I type. That’s gotta change. For now, I won’t buy more. If the house sells, and I find a good job, and my investments recover, and my business becomes sufficiently profitable, then yes, I’ll buy. I’ve been investing since about 1978. This is only the second time my portfolio has so drastically slipped and the only time I’ve simultaneously been blogging about personal finance. As I type this I realize that it would be surprising if a typical life didn’t have such an episode or two, except for the blogging part.

I had a different question for some of my friends who are interested in buying more. If the company succeeds, and the stock reflects that success, do you already have more than enough shares to be worth more than enough? More is not always better. Sometimes the peak of happiness is at enough. And if there remains a compulsion to buy more, then maybe buy more of something else. Diversification is a good thing, and I can attest that more diversification is better. My portfolio had twelve stocks in it, but as this episode has played out, I’ve had to sell, and now the portfolio only has six. Each of those was a possible “enough”. From where I sit, having more chances is better than finding every one of my remaining chances looking too chancy.

I remain a fan of investing. I know the market is less than pristine. But fundamental to the American culture is the ability for anyone to participate in wealth generation through investing. And fundamental to our species is continual invention and innovation that can produce a better world. I may not have the money right now, but I’ll buy into those ideas and ideals. Would you?

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Am I Financially Independent

Posted on June 2, 2012 by Tom Trimbath

I am a personal finance case study. Turn to the back of the new edition of Your Money or Your Life (page 292 of YMOYL I think) and you can find a short description of my life as an FI-er (shorthand for financially independent,) someone who followed the 9-Step program that Joe Dominguez and Vicki Robin popularized in workshops, seminars, and books. Even if I hadn’t written my own book on personal finance, Dream. Invest. Live., a bit of my life would be lived in public. My public life doesn’t result in much fan mail. So far, total sales for my book are less than one week’s traffic to this blog. I decided to blog about the roller-coaster nature of life as an individual investor because too much of what is out there is academic and abstract. I never expected to be writing about such depths as my current situation. Many folks are nice enough to express sympathy and discrete enough to avoid the tough questions. It took a stranger to ask the question that I’ve asked myself frequently and that others may have on their minds. It is a key question that should be answered.

On May 26, 2012, at 8:40 PM, (name withheld by request) wrote:

Hi Tom

Your name is mentioned in the YMOYL book. Just out of curiosity, I
googled your name and landed on your blog
(https://trimbathcreative.wordpress.com/).

I can see that you are selling your house and looking for job. Would
you say that YMOYL didn’t work for you and that you didn’t really
achieve financial independence? Would you like to share your thoughts
so we all can learn from your “mistakes”?

Here’s the first part of my response.

Excellent question. So many dance around that issue instead of asking me directly.

The 9-steps worked for me – for a while; and even now I definitely benefit from the exercise and philosophy. Because I worked through those steps I am very aware of my values, my goals, and what I have to offer. It helps to realize that my current situation is one of not making enough money. For some it is a case of spending too much regardless of their income, and a feeling that they have no control. I’m glad that I can look at my situation and identify that my expenses are reasonable and that my income is the issue; and that my skills (consulting, engineering, writing, art, speaking) can all provide that income with a bit of luck. Come on luck, or perseverance, or whatever.

One of the cautions about any financial plan is that there are no guarantees. Achieving financial independence through Joe and Vicki’s 9-Step program is no different. At some level, reaching that goal is merely reducing the probability that there will be a financial upset based on a long list of assumptions. How long are you going to live? Will there be a major illness in the family? One friend pointed out that my portfolio of companies is fine, but that the portfolio of those stocks are drastically undervalued right when I needed them. Another friend pointed out that it took one of the greatest financial upsets of modern times to put me into my position. In our current economy, some worry that currencies may collapse or that hyper-inflation may kick in. Throughout modern history economies have had major upsets like those. The folks that do best are those that are aware of their situation, not merely those with the biggest piles of cash. (I might have to re-read Joe’s story about Russian bonds.)

I don’t know how my situation or this economic upset will turn out. The program helps me see a path through and clear, but like I said, even at this point there are no guarantees in either direction.

Thanks for the inspiration to think some of this through. I’d like to go on in greater depth and in a more public manner. Do you mind if I use your question as the basis for a blog post? I can leave your name out of it if you’d prefer anonymity.

Oh yeah, and as for my mistakes – Yeah, I’ve thought about them a lot, a lot. Hindsight is 20/20. Replaying my life, the biggest influences were not financial choices but life choices: relationships, career choices, etc. The best advice I’d give myself would be to skip the “shoulds”. My approach to money wasn’t as much an issue, didn’t lead to as great a loss, as trying to live according to someone else’s rules. If I’d done that, and gained the awareness of my relationship with money, I probably would have retired earlier, be debt free, and have established a better backup plan. But hindsight is 20/20 and even that is not a guarantee. If it helps, if I won the lottery, I’d probably invest the same way I always have, live in a small house, keep busy, do good work, have fun, travel and basically be who I was and am.

Stay tuned. It has been one amazing ride. And thanks again for your question. (I hope you are doing well. Check in with New Road Map Foundation newroadmap.org, where I’m the Secretary, or the Simple Living Forums simplelivingforum.net for more connections.)

Here’s what’s come to mind since then.

The 9-Steps described in Your Money or Your Life (YMOYL) reinforced my frugal nature, where frugality is redefined as respecting the world around us. People, time, and the physical bits of this planet are precious. Money only exists as an abstraction that we invented, and that represents life energy. Wasting money is wasting life. Winning a million dollars and then burning it would be disrespecting a lot of other people’s life energy. Oddly enough, that effectively happens in the financial markets daily.

The way I spend my money reflects my frugality, my respect for the world. The 9-Steps did a very good job of providing a vocabulary and structure to how I prefer to live. I am very aware of the alignment between my values and how I spend my money.

The amount of money that I make is the current issue. The 9-Steps confirm and help me focus on that. Until about two years ago I was making almost enough. Then too many of my stocks were hit by aberrant misfortune. There’s good reason to believe they will recover. Sooner is much better than later. Since then I’ve been scrambling to energize my backup plan (aka my consulting, writing, art, etc.) and trying to find a good job (see My Jobs Report Month 9). In the meantime, none of those efforts are working quickly enough so I prudently must sell my house (Home For Sale Alas.)

Going through what I’ve been going through without the 9-Step program would be unhealthily tough. It’s been bad enough even with that support. There’s an aspect to financial independence that can sound like a dodge, but it is real. Financial independence is not just early retirement or a massive pile of money (though I wouldn’t turn it down). Financial independence also has an emotional component. I know people who have hundreds of thousands more than me, who are making over a hundred thousand a year, who have anxiety levels far above mine. I feel sorry for them and encourage them to step through the 9-Steps, at least for the emotional benefits.

I definitely look forward to re-attaining the logistical aspects of financial independence. (Stay tuned for that.) My financial disparity constrains my life and can be depressing. (Pity my friends who have to put up with my down days.) But I can at least celebrate the knowledge that my self worth is not determined by my net worth. I like me. I like the world. Getting paid so I can pay my bills is merely getting one abstraction to deal with another abstraction, which would merely be an academic exercise if it wasn’t for the cost of food, housing, clothes, health care, etc. Sigh. Hey look. Someone just emailed me a link to a librarian’s job. You see, something good, or even great, will turn up; and then I’ll be able to claim both aspects of financial independence. I’m worth it.

PS

Maybe I’ve really got two out of the three.

  • What I spend? In comfortable control.
  • What I make? Not enough – yet, but been there and can get there again.
  • What and how I’ll save? I wrote a book about that, and still believe in it.

 

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