Serendipity and the South Whidbey Record

Posted on July 29, 2012 by Tom Trimbath

Let’s keep this simple. I got lucky. I won my iPad. I didn’t have to compete against anyone. This isn’t the result of a meritocracy. As far as I know it isn’t the result of networking or nepotism. I filled out a form and the folks at the South Whidbey Record pulled it out of some bin. Thank you.

There are more than enough quotes about making your own luck. “God helps those who help themselves.” Interestingly enough is not a bible quote, nor from Benjamin Franklin (if I can believe wikipedia.) The quote goes back to the Greeks, in  which case it was probably in the plural, “Gods . . . ” I’ve been working hard and me as the writer and you as the reader are all watching to see if I encounter good luck. Lately it has been showing up. Thanks again.

There’s another quote that I doubt is in the databases, unless they’ve been wise enough to quote one of my friends. I’ll paraphrase. She pointed out that the odds of winning the lottery are very small. Deciding not to play drops those odds to zero. Buying one ticket raises the chances from zero to very small, which is an infinite improvement. Buying two tickets only improves the odds to twice a very small number, which is still a very small number. Okay, so we were having a math geek moment; but, I got her point. Being pessimistic and deciding to do nothing means nothing is likely to happen. At least trying, doing enough to clear that first hurdle is infinitely better than dismissing the opportunity. Doing twice as much does improve things, but not as much as you might think.

I entered the drawing. I suspect many didn’t because they thought they couldn’t win. This wasn’t like the lottery though. I couldn’t enter twice. Could I?

The odds of winning any such lottery are a large function of the number of entries. I live in a small town. The odds of winning something from The Seattle Times would be worse, though I suspect they’d award more than one iPad.

I play the lottery for at least two reasons. One – For a dollar my daydreams can entertain me for more than the time it takes to watch a movie. Two – Despite the low odds, eventually someone wins; and it might as well be me. But, I typically only buy one dollar’s worth per drawing. (By the way, did you know that you can buy ten drawings in advance in Washington’s Lottery? Ten dollars covers about three weeks of drawings. Handy.) And of course, I play the lottery because I could use the money.

Applying for jobs doesn’t follow exactly the same logic. Making that phone call, sending that email, or submitting that application is a good idea that doesn’t cost much that can have great benefits. Sometimes people get jobs without applying. Most of the time, the process isn’t random. Often enough the winner is selected before anyone has a chance to enter the contest.

Yet in life, showing up, taking that first step, making that tangible effort is more than enough because so many talk themselves out of opportunities. I wonder how many times I’ve done that to myself.

An aspect of living in a small town, or at least an intentional community, is that opportunities and needs are more apparent. The news becomes that much more important. The South Whidbey Record is only a couple of dozen pages, but I rarely read more than that many when I had a subscription to The Seattle Times. The Record’s pages are easier to peruse, and small things are less likely to get lost. News items too small for a big paper can hit the front page, which might mean someone gets the help they need. Small items within the pages aren’t lost in a multitude, which means I can see things like an ad for winning an iPad. A small town newspaper can seem like a small thing, but it greatly improves the possibility that big things can happen.

The Record has imperfections, but most things do. I know I have a few. I’ve even found a few in the iPad, though that may simply be the results of a “defective end-user.” (And probably the subject of another post.) If we waited for perfections before getting on with life, we wouldn’t live.

In the meantime, I’m learning how to use my iPad, I have my lottery ticket – and I also noticed over on drewslist a $25 raffle to win a new car. (It was probably in the Record too, but drewslist is fresh in my mind because I just checked my email.) My car is a 2000 Jeep Cherokee Classic, which I like but it has over 150,000 miles. The raffle car is a Fiat 500. Hmm, it’s been a while since I’ve had two cars. If I had a new car that got over 30mpg it would be a lot easier to drive 750 miles to visit my dad. Hmm, maybe . . . I wonder what my chances are of winning. Hmm . . .

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Real Optimism

Posted on July 28, 2012 by Tom Trimbath

Optimism. Just as I as was beginning to doubt, proof of positivism arrived. Since I posted My Jobs Report Month 11, I’ve had calls from three prospective employers (interviews begin next week), and as another entry in the category of “You Can’t Make This Stuff Up”, I won an iPad. I’ve been buttressing my optimism with internal supports for so long that I’ve had to adjust to external positive proof. The interviews lifted my mood, relaxed many muscles, and gave me some IFs to play with. All of that is much appreciated. (Check the Comments section of the job post for updates.) An unexpected iPad adds a marvelous cornerstone. Something tangible to remind me that optimism can be real.

Thank you South Whidbey Record, the local semi-weekly newspaper that covers details that would be lost in the big city papers. I’ve never tracked it, but I suspect I end up in the paper about once a month. Let’s see. There’s the annual attempt  at moderation around the Fourth of July fireworks (yes to public fireworks, no to the private illegal fireworks – because illegal is so common that it overwhelms local police despite bomb-sniffing dogs at the ferries.) There are my classes, usually the ones about self-publishing, which are almost monthly. There are my art exhibits, which I really could promote more. There are my book events. And then there are dances, volunteering, and generally being social and visible. Being visible is easy in the Record’s neighborhood (even though they moved north) because there aren’t many of us despite its size. Such is island life.

As money got tight I dutifully eliminated expenses. The necessities were obvious and I continue to pay them. Some luxuries became obviously worth less than they cost. Goodbye satellite TV. Hello streaming. Inevitably there were expenses that were for useful goods and services. I hesitated when the newspaper and magazine subscriptions came in because most of them are available online. But despite my finances, there are things that I wanted to support. Various charities continue to receive contributions, though the amounts are smaller. Local newspapers provide a service, and while I wasn’t going to consider them a charity, and I couldn’t buy big print ads, I knew that getting the paper in the box twice a week provided me a tangible connection with my community. I’d support that. And yet I hesitated because as money gets too tight, sentiment must defer to necessity.

Then I saw their ad. They had an ad in their own paper. I suspect they get a good rate. But the ad was for a contest. Renew your subscription and sign up to win an iPad. I’ve gotten so tired of facebook scams about winning iPads that I laughed. I was pretty sure that filling out the clipping wasn’t going to subject my computer to malware. I am very careful with my computer. I only have one, and it is the home for my business and everything else. All of my writing, my photos, and everything I needed to run my consulting business resided in one computer. It works well, though using a 13 inch screen to review photos that will be printed at 20 x 30 is a bit comical. Every time I carry it I am careful. Replacing it would be a hardship. Even if everything is properly backed up, the extra expense would hurt. So, why not? I filled out the form, sent in my money, kept the possibility in mind, but didn’t ponder it much.

Thursday I got the call. I was the winner. Could I swing by the office to pick it up? Oh yeah. They’ll take a picture of me for the paper and maybe have a little article. Sure! It’s not like I haven’t been in the paper before.

Thursday night I poured myself a drink, but instead of it being a drink to relax me from financial anxieties, it was a drink to encourage me to ponder and reset my attitude. Instead of cheap vodka (playfully turned into homemade spiced variants of martinis), I had some of the good scotch provided by a friend in appreciation for a consultation.

Optimist or pessimist, getting through tough times is, by definition, tough. Putting the tough times in the past though requires making that distinction, recognizing that those times were temporary. I don’t know if I’ll get job offers (though some of the phone calls have been very encouraging.) Live within tough times for too long and pessimism can persist or optimism can become abstract. Too many people spent too many decades living within the fears and anxieties they were subjected to for the years of the Great Depression. I’m not going to start acting as if my money worries are behind me. I’m pragmatic enough to save that celebration for after the paychecks, or my business revenues, or my investment proceeds, or some windfall have significantly shown up in my bank account. These last twelve months have severely drained my resources and dramatically increased my debt. There’a lot of catching up to do.

So, now I have an iPad. I have a computer that looks like it will handle a lot of the ways I electronically connect with people. It also can act as yet another backup for some of my business. And it gives me mobility, so when I get a call on cell phone while I’m away from home, I’ll be able to schedule that interview or consulting session or public speaking event during the call, instead of telling them I’ll call back when I get home. (Yeah, I know. A smartphone could handle the same thing, but I’m waiting for the next generation of phones that will include a MicroVision picoprojector.) Skip the long-winded verbiage. I won an iPad. Yeah! Let’s have some fun! Let’s have some fun watching Tom catch up to speed with the decade.

My iPad will help me relax, though remembering a password that meets Apple’s criteria has been a problem. I had to reset it or me four times last night. Apple seems to be getting as pesky as Microsoft at its most stringent. I’ll relax after I teaches me how to use it. Oo, that doesn’t sound very Apple-ish either.

Oh well, I am in the midst of adjustments. And that’s a good thing. Adjustments have just begun. I’ll learn how to use my iPad. My cell phone company called to tell me that I must replace my phone by the end of the year. It is so old that they are taking down the equipment that listens to it. (Come on MicroVision. I’m working to a deadline here.) I’m happy about the job interviews and possibilities, and I have applications in for dozens of other jobs. Something may get added to the list.  Earnings season begins next week, at least for my portfolio. The August workshop is filling and coming up quick. (Postmark the check before August 1st and get 20% off.) My photos exhibits are extended into August. (Thank you Wind and Tide in Oak Harbor, and Braeburn in Langley.) And then the big season hits, as my fifth of five Whidbey Island photo essays premiers at Raven Rocks Gallery in Greenbank in September. And I know I forgot other positive possibilities to list.

So, pardon me if I stumble a bit as I adjust. Like the teenager surprised by that first kiss despite years of dreaming about it, like the sailor caught by the first gust of wind after the doldrums, like the fisherman who has to wake from dozing because something hit the bait, I hope to not look too silly as I remember how good it can be and what I was hoping for all along. Real optimism.

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My Jobs Report Month 11

Posted on July 25, 2012 by Tom Trimbath

My inner editor wants to hold off on this post for another month. It would so much neater to file a jobs report on month 9, and then a quarter later on month 12. Besides, I’d rather report on cheery news. Two things drive me to writing this post today, eleven months into my job search.
1) The end of the month is approaching which means selling dwindling stock to pay persistent bills.
2) I don’t want to write the twelfth month job report unless it is good news and a celebration.

As I type the idea of celebration I also realize that you’ll hear about it soon after it happens. I won’t wait for an anniversary to report the news.

Of course, when I wrote My Jobs Report Month 9 it was in the hope that the celebration would happen before month 11. Evidently, that didn’t happen. The main bit of my story hasn’t changed, so I won’t repeat myself. Interested readers can re-read that post. The story must be somewhat compelling because it is in my top ten blog posts.

Several things have changed.

  • I have been inspired to make the story broader and started the Help Find A Friend A Job (#FAFAJ) category on this blog. So far Jennifer Hooper and Spencer Webster have participated. Anyone else want to jump in?
  • A few friends have taken action and asked for my resume. I’ve been applying at the front door, dutifully filling out the forms, attaching the requested documents in the specified formats, and patiently waiting. My friends have been trying some side doors. I don’t get a lot of details, but I get hints that some of the side doors are informal contacts while others are formal internal referral programs. It is all fine by me. Tracking the progress is more difficult because I can’t simply log in to a status board, but I suspect the actual progress is more significant.
  • My home has been on the market for two months. That story (Home For Sale Alas) has pulled in even more traffic that my job report. No nibbles yet; which is the same story with my friend who is selling her house in the same neighborhood. The market is just quiet. That may be because our weather has been dismal. The rest of the country may be in heat wave but the local news has reported the number of minutes we’ve been above 80. (How much summer have we had? 78 minutes)
  • To give a complete story I must include the change that continues: my net worth is diminishing. The companies in my portfolio continue to progress, while their stocks retreat. My business continues to gain recognition and traction, but hasn’t raised enough to pay the upcoming bill for my next exhibit: Twelve Months at Double Bluff (Raven Rocks Gallery in September.) Watching my liquid net worth dwindle to less than a year’s living expenses is why I am looking for a job and selling my home.
  • Another thing that is happening is a chorus of encouragement and sincere assurances that everything will turn out alright. Some of the sweetest comments have been folks telling me that I can’t sell and move because I belong on the island and fit in so well here. Thank you. I love you folks too.

I have reasons for optimism, and how my optimism survives is a marvel. These snippets help.

  • Dendreon announces earnings a bit early, July 30th. Last year’s 20% miss in earnings is what precipitated the 80% drop in DNDN and the subsequent implosion of my financial situation. Maybe new management will announce good news, or at least restore confidence in the company within the investment community. Stock must be sold to pay my bills, and DNDN’s the leading contender.
  • MicroVision is supposed to have major news soon. The sad joke within the MVIS investor community, is that MicroVision is always supposed to have major news soon. But we are now in the second half of 2012, the green lasers are available, and the consumer market is beginning to anticipate pico-projectors in cell-phones and other devices. Okay folks, release the good news soon. I’ve been waiting for over a decade.
  • My business is gaining recognition. My photos have been on constant display since the beginning of the year. (Currently at Braeburn in Langley, and Wind and Tide in Oak Harbor.) That’s especially encouraging because none of the exhibits required cold-calls. They were either unsolicited or informal referrals. My consulting is being recognized as valuable, though as most consultants know, many people want it for free. Trading value for value is easier for a farmer than for a consultant. The self-publishing workshop coming in August is pulling in students. (Drop the check in the mail by the end of this month and get 20% off.) If it is successful enough we may take it on the road.
  • Inside and outside my business are at least a dozen other ventures that might come to fruition, though most of them are awaiting funding. Aren’t we all?
  • A semi-joke amongst my apocalyptic friends is that the end is so near that the world’s financial system will crash before I run out of cash. Well, that’s one way to not worry about paying the mortgage or insurance bills.
  • Oh yeah, and I always keep in mind that windfalls happen, I could get a dream job, and that everything will work out. One friend foresees that I will succeed, but it will happen in a way that I can’t imagine, so thinking about it is a waste of time.

Back to the jobs, because despite the potential for my book sales, art sales, and a home sale, the solution most people pick is selling their time to a corporation. They get a paycheck job and trade forty hours for hundreds or thousands of dollars. Self-employment is statistically the more likely road to wealth, but the great upside potential is accompanied with the disagreeable downside possibility. Corporate employment can be a dream or a drudge. I’ve seen both. Corporate employment may not be an easy road to riches, except in the higher ranks, but it is the most common road to a sustainable lifestyle in today’s society.

My life continues to include Too Many IFs. I rarely have a satisfactory answer when people ask me what I am going to do. If my portfolio recovers, or not. If my business sustains me, or not. If I find a good job, or not. If I sell my home, or not. Throughout these eleven months I’ve maintained optimism because the odds are very small that none of those efforts will succeed. Yet, here I am. Maybe that’s a subconscious source of my optimism; because, the odds that all of them would succeed is also very small, and yet it can happen. I’ve seen odds like those before. I wonder how they stack up against the lottery’s odds. Let me go check my ticket.  Stay tuned.

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In The First Place

Posted on July 21, 2012 by Tom Trimbath

In the first place, God created – wait a minute. That’s not how it started. (But it is an excuse to have a hyperlink to the Vatican, a first for me.) As a prelude to the August self-publishing workshop the other instructors and I had a meet & greet for potential students. We were there to tell them about the workshop, but as is common with human contact, information flowed the other way too. One of them pointed out that the phrase “In the first place” can be traced back to Ancient Greece where the first place referred to the home that housed the book (probably a scroll) where the topic was described and discussed. (If you find the attribution add it to the Comments below.) The argument could be abstract, but referring to the first place grounded it. Everything has a beginning. Listening to disparate items today emphasized that every day is a beginning as well. Every moment is an opportunity for change and progress. Hey portfolio, do you hear that? Today’s first place can lead to marvelous and positive change and progress.

I’ve lost count of the people that have taken my class in Modern Self-Publishing. Teaching the class is a joy because I witness passionate people with fascinating stories becoming empowered. Of course, I hope they all make progress with their projects, but they don’t have to report to me so I only hear about book launches informally. A recent attendee is celebrating the launch of her first book, The Last Supper Catering Company. The author is Michaelene McElroy who may be out shopping for a beret so she dress the stereotypical part of author. Congratulations! I’ll raise a toast after I’ve posted this entry. It should be cocktail time by then.

Celebrating completing a book and getting a copy in hand sounds like a finale, not a first step. For self-published works, the first time the book is available is the first time that steps can be made to sell the book and share the story. It is the transition from writer to author, the transition from artist to merchant.

It has become a cliche to say “every day is the first day of the rest of your life.” It is true, which is why the cliche persists. Yes, it is true, but so what? It is hard to disassociate where we are from how we got here. I’ve been reviewing my life choices a lot considering my reversal of financial fortune over the last eleven months. It took time, but I am finally spending more time asking “Where do I go from here?” instead of “What hit me back there?” and “How did I not see that coming?” Retrospection has been insightful, but it can’t change the past or where I am now. In my case, I continue to be amazed at the incredible unfortunate coincidences that piled up in my life. Sometimes I even chuckle at it because my recent history is so bizarre. If it was a movie script I’d critique it as too contrived and unbelievable. It has been far more productive to look at each day as In The First Place.

In the First Place – what I have going for me is; and then I list my talents, skills, resources, and opportunities. They all have histories. Opportunities exist because of years spent as an engineer, artist, consultant, volunteer and advocate; but focussing on the history doesn’t change my possible futures. Each moment is a First Place from which I take my next step, which becomes the new First Place.

Within the world of writers there is a long list of First Places that result in a book and a career. Decide to write. Start writing. Finish the rough draft. Read the rough draft. Edit the first draft. Repeat as necessary. Eventually, declare the manuscript complete. Decide how to publish. Publish. Deliver the manuscript. Receive a proof copy. Edit the proof. Deliver the proof. Repeat. Declare the proof good enough. Watch the book appear online. Receive the first copy. Receive the first sale. Start selling the book if that hasn’t already happened. Embark on book tours, signings, talks, and campaigns. And if luck and skill are aligned, make money. Each of those steps is worthy of a celebration as a completion and each of those steps is a First Place from which a new history flows.

My reaction to my personal finances switched a few months ago. For years I was making progress towards having “enough.” I’ve used various definitions of the term, but basically having “enough” means changing my personal label from semi-retired to retired. There are no guarantees that “enough” will always be enough, but I knew my target where I would relax significantly. I’ve been there before. I was close again when DNDN was trading at over $50. Now it is trading at below $7 despite making hundreds of millions of dollars. For months I agonized over how much farther I was from “enough.” I was working and living from what I lacked. Then I started looking at what I had and have. Given what I have, what can I do and where can I go from here? The more I lost the easier it was to turn positive because the fear of loss was worse than the loss.

I’d like to have more money from which to take my next step, and I am taking steps to make that happen. But as a writer I know that a manuscript can always be improved. As a photographer I know that more time with Photoshop can improve an image. As a pragmatist I know that the only way things get done is to use what’s available and proceed. (As a dreamer I also know that wishing may make dreams come true, but I think forcing dreams to fit a schedule may be counterproductive.) I have what I have.

We can lament how far removed from where we were as a society. There’s an example of how different we are from “America is the greatest country in the world.” It is from Aaron Sorkin’s new show, “Newsroom.” The clip (supposedly used with permission) is enough to entice me to sign up for the show, if I wasn’t objectively impacted so much by the consequences of deregulation and bad luck. I like the clip because it concisely exposes our situation; but, also because it ends with what we do about it. “The first step in solving a problem is recognizing there is one.”

I’m more of an optimist, and a not a screenwriter maximizing dramatic impact. The first step in improving anything is recognizing where the First Place is, and then deciding to step to a better place.

I hope we look back to now and say,
“Well, in the first place, Michaelene succeeded because she wrote The Last Supper Catering Company.”
“Well, in the first place, Tom succeeded because he built from what he had available.”
“Well, in the first place, we never would’ve improved the lives of people and the planet if we hadn’t recognized where we were and where we wanted to go.”

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Trends In Images

Posted on July 18, 2012 by Tom Trimbath

Facebook is taking us back to the seventies. If you’re not on facebook, don’t worry. This trend may be coming your way too. Posters are back. Quotes are being integrated with images to create messages and stories. Words don’t seem to be enough. Instead of posting personal updates, or quoting famous lines, people are passing along posters as poems that convey more than the words or the images do alone. It is a new wave of creation and a new means of communication. I don’t know exactly where it is heading, but I see some of the consequences occurring now. It is changing the way people spend money and the way they view the world.

Last night was a quick bit of fun. No, nothing that racy. I enjoy public speaking, or at least recognize that I’m not as intimidated by it as others, so I offer myself up to talk to groups. Of course, it is a sales opportunity, but I did it even when I had enough money. Two days ago I got a call from a friend I met at the Money And Life Conference. John Pendleton was the photographer and participant so we got to talking life, the universe, and photography. He’s also the President of the Whidbey Island Camera Club. Their speaker for Tuesday night’s meeting backed out. He asked me to fill in on short notice. I said, “Sure!” Then I asked the detailed questions. Where and when is it? What do you want me to say? How long do you want me to talk?

They let me set up a display of most of the ways I exhibit and sell my photos, and let me talk for about 15-20 minutes. It went by in a rush. Then the four dozen or so photographers held their monthly review of each others’ work. It was impressive. Exquisite timing of fireworks and ferris wheels. Subtle and strong weathered structures. Sepia-toned lilies. Mirrored reflections that effectively show two stories at once. While I’m at it, I’ll continue. A cafe in France that worked as a single image, a diptych, or a triptych. A woman and a Ducatti and a lesson in changing a story by cropping. On the street film portraits in China that show two emotions in one frame. Yep. I had a good time.

Besides their talents, I was impressed by their technical skills and the amount of education and energy they exerted. Photoshop versus Aperture. Nikon versus Canon. Debates ensue. Most of the accomplished artists were creating for their own benefit. They spent thousands of dollars on equipment and software, and days of effort transforming a few shutter clicks into far more involved stories. For many people, a simple photo does not suffice – not on facebook and not on their hard drive. Few of them are trying to sell. All of them get some satisfaction from what they do.

The goal rarely has anything to do with money, and is more likely to aim for greater creativity.

Writers are the same way. Most books never make money. That means most authors never make money. A few years ago, I was told that half of the profits in the publishing industry come from 20 authors, not 20% of the authors, but 20 authors. Yet, in that same time, the number of writers becoming authors, the number of people self-publishing, has dramatically increased. If it was only about the money there’d be a lot more disappointed authors out there. I consult with artists and authors, and teach classes in Modern Self-Publishing (July 21st in Freeland, August 18 & 19 in Coupeville, and available in your town too.) The majority of writers want to become authors because they have something to say. Making money can be a great side effect, but the main incentive is communication. Writers are luckier than photographers though. The equipment and classes cost less.

In my previous post, A Grocery Bag Of Garbage, I said, “Most of the money I need to make is for mortgage, insurance, and utilities – not stuff.” I am still scrambling to find a way to make that happen after my Triple Whammy. (Yes, I continue to hunt for a job and my home is market.) Even when I’ve had significant discretionary income, most of the extra money that didn’t go into buying stock went into buying knowledge through reading, classes, and experiences. I look forward to returning to that status. There is a lot I want to learn and experiences I want to experience. If you’ve read my blog often enough you can probably guess that I’ll turn those into blog posts, photo exhibits, talks, and books. Information is healthiest when it isn’t boxed, stored, and let to dust.

There was a traveler there last night who is inspirational. Jennifer bought a tear-drop trailer, an exercise in stylish minimalism, and left Wisconsin to learn about herself and her country. Here’s a quote from her chronicle.
“Again I say: this is America. This is you and me. These are the folks who make everyday America happen. Electricians, waitresses, customers…we all came together and supported each other. I thought I was going out to see America, see the parks, nature areas, towns, but what I am really seeing are the people who populate and are our country.”
It is a similar sentiment to why and how I travel. She isn’t going shopping. Besides, there’s only so much room in a tear-drop trailer. (Check out her photo gallery to see how she does it.) She was at the Money And Life Conference as well. From what I can tell, she too is questioning “stuff”. Traveling where everything has to fit in a small space is illuminating. I now know that I can travel for weeks on what fits in a backpack or a set of panniers. I’d tell you more about her experiences, but I lost the link. She was nice enough to send it again, but now there are 33 pages of story to catch up on. Hey, that sounds like a book (hint, hint.)

Ironically, what I was talking about last night was stuff. Here’s how to sell a print, or a satin, or a book, or a poster. The art business has been depressed for the last few years. Not the best time for me to make money from five-year long photo essays, even if they are of wonderful places like Whidbey. Yet there is a demand for imagery and a desire for expression. I find that encouraging. If people are more interested in communicating than acquiring then society may be heading in a healthy direction. The conventional economy may not appreciate the move, but conversing uses fewer resources than consuming. Maybe along the way we’ll mutually learn, and benefit, and travel through new and better experiences.

I hope my books and photos help with that conversation. My passion is for people and ideas, and I use words and images to convey ideas between people. That has a value, and I guess that is one reason I am comfortable with people buying a bit of stuff from me. I also know that maybe we are all hunting for new ways to express ourselves and to communicate, so I plan to merge my words and images into posters. I’ve uploaded the first and will make the others as time allows. I don’t know where that effort will lead me, but I imagine that won’t stop me. Following my intuition is a trend I have.

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A Grocery Bag Of Garbage

Posted on July 14, 2012 by Tom Trimbath

My garbageman awarded me a verbal honor. He laughed when I asked if he would take some slightly outsized trash. Of course. According to him, I throw out less trash than anyone on his five routes. He was happy to finally meet me. I had a lot of unofficial credit built up. The extra trash was barely noticed. Evidently there are benefits to being able to fit a week’s garbage into one grocery bag. It isn’t a challenge. It is merely the consequence of living frugally where frugal means respecting the resources of materials, time, and money. Living this way makes it hard to imagine living anyway else. I didn’t realize how uncommon my story is. Really? The lightest on five routes? What else are people throwing away? There was a lesson in a grocery bag of garbage.

I feel odd writing about my frugality because it is habitual. Even as a millionaire and married there wasn’t much difference in my lifestyle. But lately it has become more apparent to me. Money worries can do that. Habits that became unconscious have been reviewed as I reflect on my lifestyle. I’ve found little to change.

A depleted portfolio (down > 90%) and a lack of a paycheck mean my money is tight. Hopefully, my consulting business and artist sales grow to compensate, or even exceed, for my needs. Being prudent though, I’ve put my home on the market in case the business, the portfolio, or a windfall don’t come through. In this society, I’ve got to get the money to live from somewhere, and the place I live in is my largest asset.

I had plans for the bits and pieces of old chairs because I am resourceful. Why buy new when a bit of cloth can remake a lawn chair? (Ah, I just had an idea that would’ve worked. Rats.) But in the world of real estate, it is deemed necessary to visually de-clutter so the buyers can visually fill the scene with their mental image of their stuff. A few armfuls later and the carport was much cleaner.

A trip through the neighborhood proved my garbageman’s point. Houses occupied by only one person had two garbage cans, or cans with bulging lids, or cans that needed wheels so they could get out to the curb. First I wondered what was in the cans, but then I wondered how much it cost to fill those cans. I saw the second garbage can as a sign of wealth. Every week they bought enough stuff to fill two trash cans. That meant buying at least two trash cans worth of stuff, which probably involved several shopping trips in the car, or lots of deliveries. It also probably meant no recycling. My friends who shop by bicycle probably don’t have the same problem. (Occupy Your Bike!)

My recycle trips are also about a bag’s worth too, but they are only every other week. Evidently, I have been exercising the other two R’s: Reduce and Reuse. This is not a brag. It is a personal surprise.

I suspect that the easiest way to fill a trash can is with lots of packaging. Plastic doesn’t compact easily, and maybe people are throwing away cardboard boxes without breaking them down instead of recycling them. Packaged foods probably account for a lot. Yard waste can end up in the trash too.

There isn’t much plastic in what I buy, unless it can be recycled. Take a virtual trip out to Midway Island via my friends who are documenting ocean plastic. They can tell where the birds have died because their carcasses are piles of plastic in the shape of a bird. There’s so much plastic that the birds can’t distinguish between trash and fish. It is easy to imagine a plastic bag being confused for a jellyfish. Cardboard recycles, so I don’t throw it away unless I hung onto it for painting projects. I like to cook, so there isn’t much packaging with my food. Veggies are in bags. Meat comes with those little trays, but each bit of meat stretches across many meals. The biggest food packing I deal with are egg cartons, and I use them for firelighters (I put a bit of used candle wax in the bottom and break it up into a dozen firestarters), or I find folks that have other uses for them. My yard waste is mulch and compost material. That’s good stuff; especially, when it is mixed in with food scraps.

It is easy to become inured to waste. I recall working in the corporate world and watching some very unconscious, unfrugal behaviour. Materials were easy to waste because the company would always buy more of whatever was needed, and there was no personal benefit to reducing, reusing, or recycling. Despite urgency, time was easy to waste because asking yet another irrelevant question delayed important decisions while rarely threatening anyone’s paycheck. Money was easy to waste because it was corporate money. People who balked at spending for a fancy meal, had no problem when it came to the catering budget. I was like that for a while until one day I was looking at a budget item. It was a small budget item, not even six figures. It was about as large as my salary. How many such items were casually accepted and possibly wasted, and did anyone notice the correlation with layoffs?

Government seems to have the corporate issue at a larger scale. The term billions is used freely, yet there aren’t billions of Americans. Every billion dollar program means more than three dollars per person – and we talk about trillion dollar debts and budgets!

Pardon me as I take a breath.

What I notice is that my frugal lifestyle is actually enjoyable. Most of the money I need to make is for mortgage, insurance, and utilities – not stuff. I’ve seen others live similarly frugal lives and, as long as they can pay the bills, they enjoy a precious freedom. I’ve seen businesses and corporations operate with care and respect for materials, time, and money, and they are seen as green and tend to have lower expenses. (I enjoyed f5’s stockholders meetings that they held in the breakroom. FFIV) After I post this I may go research the most frugal country in the world. It wouldn’t surprise me to find that it is a nice place to live.

Wouldn’t it be amazing, that when we finally contact an extra-terrestrial civilization, they look at us with respect because of the respect we show for what we have, how we spend it, and what we save? Maybe we’ll be honored for that.

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A Photo Marathon On Whidbey

Posted on July 11, 2012 by Tom Trimbath

Go stand at the finish line of a marathon. Many runners throw their arms up in triumph, but most cross the line focussed on finding a place to rest. Yesterday I finished my photo marathon, a five-year project to photograph Whidbey Island’s nature.

I picked five places, visited each for twelve months, and photographed the everyday beauty that the postcards and snapshots overlook. When I got home after handing the files over to the printer I just wanted to sit and sip and consider what I’d done. It is true for the financial marathon I am in now. I suspect it is true for marathons of all types, including the longest marathon any of us run – a life. The trick is remembering that celebrations celebrate more than crossing the finish line, and there are many finish lines.

My writing and my photography tend towards marathon projects. Bicycling across America, walking across Scotland, and particularly my twelve month series about Washington’s Cascades. My twelve month studies started there. I was tired of trying to find a new place to hike every weekend. Guidebooks became checklists instead of enticements. One day I wanted to hike and didn’t want to dive into research and maps, so I went back to the place I’d hiked a month earlier. Life was busy, and I did it again, and again. The place was the same but changing. I decided to do that for a year. After a year I realized that visiting a place once was like a one-night stand. Visiting it for twelve months was like a long term relationship. I witnessed moods that weren’t apparent at a first glance or on a Saturday afternoon in August. What started as a convenience became a revelation.

After writing my first book, Just Keep Pedaling, I knew that I could write well and write better. Washington’s Cascades should be well documented with epic tales chronicled by such an active adventure community that includes so many excellent authors, yet no one had taken the simple step of visiting a place for twelve months in a row and describing the nature that embodies a place even when it isn’t the height of hiking or skiing season. The Cascades are broad and high enough to produce every micro-climate from temperate rain forest to alpine to forests dry enough to burn. One book wouldn’t suffice. I wrote three: Twelve Months at Barclay Lake (the wet west side), Twelve Months at Lake Valhalla (high and on the divide), and Twelve Months at Merritt Lake (the dry east side). They are all along Highway 2 and are a rough 40 mile slice of the mountains.

Whidbey is bigger. From my house near the southern tip to Deception Pass is basically 50 miles. I moved to Whidbey seven years ago to finish the book about Merritt Lake, was complimented on my photos, so decided to court another slice of nature. Whidbey is bigger. Three places wouldn’t do. I chose five: Cultus Bay (my neighborhood and catch basin for local tsunamis), Double Bluff (big sandy, public beaches, and a dynamic escarpment), Admiralty Head (the gateway to Puget Sound paired with Port Townsend), Penn Cove (quiet and alive with mussels and tourists), and Deception Pass (the most dramatic and visited because of its iconic tides, cliffs, and bridge).

I tackle big tasks.

There are a lot of finish lines to come. All of the photos are at the printer (Fine Balance Imaging), then they must be titled, printed, matted, signed, framed, exhibited as Twelve Months at Double Bluff (thank you Windy and MaryJo at Raven Rocks Gallery), and then exhibited as a five year group (come on by for the Open Studio Tour in October – unless I sell my house, which is an unfortunately prudent step.) There are enough finish lines to justify a case of champagne. I’m more frugal than that. I celebrated with a martini made from homemade spiced vodka, neither shaken or stirred. Stay tuned because I’ll report on the finish lines as I cross them. (And please visit the online gallery and buy the photos that you like the best.)

My financial marathon seems to match our country’s economic marathon. There are a bunch of us running for longer than we’d like, without enough relief stations along the way, but our best course is to pace ourselves and continue. When I ran marathons, I’d cross the halfway point about the time the winners finished the course, yet I’d cheer my accomplishment. I can hear friends and news reports of hands being thrown up in the air as people get jobs or corporations report record profits. I’m back in the pack, moving my feet, wondering how I signed up for this. I actually thought I was within sight of the finish line long ago, but incredible, coincidental, bad luck put me back into the race. At least I am amongst interesting company.

When I’ve run marathons, or taken on voyages like crossing countries, or dove into multi-year artistic essays, I never took it for granted that I’d complete the task and succeed – and yet I have. And I didn’t wait until the end to celebrate. Little goals along the way help maintain momentum. I feel that way financially now, not taking any of it for granted and not stopping either.

I suspect that is what investors must do despite the recent portfolio upsets. I suspect that is what the country must do despite the recent turmoil, though the country, the government that is us, must also recognize that a lot of it was self-induced. I am optimistic because I see enough people who recognize the need for a prolonged effort to move towards a common goal. There are those that are more interested in retreating to where we started as if that is possible; but for most of my marathons, the start and finish lines were in different places. I only made progress by moving forward and I was always different by the time I crossed the line.

I wasn’t planning on going here, but MicroVision (MVIS) comes to mind. Long Term Buy and Hold (LTBH) is an investing style that I follow, and have exercised to a tedious degree with MVIS. While there are no guarantees that they’ll cross the finish line, that they’ll succeed with their technology, business, and products, they and we shareholders are undoubtedly in a marathon. Considering some of the options they have for succeeding, I might find myself offered a quick ride to the finish if I can hold onto the stock.

Quick solutions are seductive. I’ve rarely taken them, and I’ve accomplished a lot. Slow and steady can work at every level from personal to global. And if you want a bit of the natural, cruise through my books and photos that are more than snapshots, that show a different perspective that arises from calmly, consistently, progressing towards a goal while celebrating every day.

I think I’ll celebrate completing this rather long post with a cup of tea. The champagne comes later, maybe after one of these posts goes positively viral.

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Help Find A Friend A Job – Spencer Webster

Posted on July 9, 2012 by Tom Trimbath

Welcome to the second installment in a new category within my blog: Help Find A Friend A Job (#FAFAJ). Jennifer Hooper was the first, and continues to look (but with some good prospects from other sources.)

I was probably the first, but unintentionally. Check back to the beginning of this blog and its predecessor and read the cautious optimism of a semi-retired investor. My job search continues, (My Jobs Report Month 9 – now past month 10), but I wanted to open the discussion to more than just me. I use myself as an example that gets past the statistics, but I am not alone. People are having tough times. Usually I say that in a general way for the sake of discretion, but I realized that some of my friends might welcome the opportunity to speak up and have their story told too. So, I decided to ask a few if they’d be willing to answer a few questions. People are more than their resumes. Maybe this is another way to get to know them, and help find a friend a job.

Welcome to Spencer Webster, a man I know as an artist and a writer. Here are my questions and his answers.

0. I take it you are under-employed. Is that a good way to introduce you?
I definitely would say I’m under-employed. For nearly six years, that has been the case. I’m ready for the next big step, whatever that looks like.

1. Who are you? Not the job titles, but who are you?
I am that creative person who has a wide-ranging skill set and interests to match. Perhaps too-wide. I am a content producer, from photography, to writing, from video to audio, from editor to page designer. If you need an updated newsletter, whether electronic or in print, I’m your man.
I’m a people person, capable of connecting in very meaningful ways, which comes through in my interview style. I don’t just see people I’ve interviewed as done once the interview is complete and the article is written. I count them as friends.

2. How do you want to live your life?
I want to be valued for my skills to a point of comfort, in turn to be able to pay my bills and have enough left over to do the things I enjoy, travel with my wife, explore, camp, fly radio controlled soaring gliders, shoot photos and ride a good motorcycle. Not too much to ask for.
In the end, I want to be able to live in the here and now, not just survive.
Oh and I want to continue to write fiction and tell people’s stories that get people’s attention.

3. How have you been getting by?
The thing that keeps me afloat is my military retirement pay. I have been working minimum wage jobs while getting a few interviews here and there for that elusive hand-up position that would change my life for the better, financially.

4. What title fits you that would never be picked up by a resume robot?
All-around writer. From newspaper articles, to human-interest pieces, from light technical writing to converting technical speak to layman’s terms, I’ve got the ability to distill language into readable type.

5. What job jazzed you the most?
My time on USS Enterprise as a public relations specialist – I got my hands on newsletter production, broadcast television, media relations, design and connecting with people experience.

6. Did you leave your last job or did it leave you?
I left it because I was moving from Southern Illinois back to the Pacific Northwest.

7. Besides the paychecks and benefits, what do you miss about having a job?
If I was completely unemployed, I’d miss the socializing, the networking with anyone I connect with. I don’t miss much about my time in the Navy except the meeting and making friends with new people.

8. Have you learned anything, either formally or informally, in the meantime?
I’ve learned there is some elusive thing I’m missing that companies are seeking. I interview well, become top three within a list of candidates, but something is just not present in my experience nor in my characteristics that keeps me shy of being hired. I’d love to find out what that is.

9. What projects have you gotten done in the meantime?
I’ve just completed a metaphysical thriller novel about a man who dives into his psyche, and meets a whole host of good and bad characters that help him to work on issues of love and forgiveness.

10. How else do you keep yourself busy?
I build model aircraft, shoot and edit videos, spend time with my wife and kids and explore Kirkland, WA.

11. How can folks find you?
People can find me at thewebby@gmail.com.

Spencer is always busy and trying new things. I wrote a few articles for an arts and lifestyle newsletter that he produced, edited, and published a few years ago (Inspiris). He certainly doesn’t sit still. He applies energy, talent, and enthusiasm to entrepreneurial projects. As he says, “Something’s got to break open.” He also has a YouTube channel and a Flickr feed.

Cloud Gate

Six years of looking. That’s impressive, and what’s more impressive is his positive attitude throughout. Role models exist. Here’s hoping that he finds the means to “live in the here and now, not just survive.”

A note to my friends: If you’re having a tough time finding a job and want to participate, send me an email. I don’t know how often I will post the responses. It has to fit in amongst the various projects that I’m pursuing. Stay tuned. Good luck.

A note to other bloggers: You’re welcome to pick up this idea too. Maybe using the same title, Help Find A Friend A Job (#FAFAJ), will help spread the idea. The more people hear the stories, the less likely they’ll see unemployment as a statistic or the unemployed as a stereotype. During the Great Depression people walked door-to-door asking for work. That is happening again, but maybe moving some electrons will be more effective. We might as well try. It would feel good to succeed.

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Sifting News For News

Posted on July 7, 2012 by Tom Trimbath

MicroVision (MVIS) is proof that investing doesn’t have to be dull, and just like in any news item digging deeper uncovers unexpected gems. Owning shares of MVIS is a cause of severe optimism, serious pessimism, prolonged patience, and considerable consternation. They may revolutionize the electronic display industry (go ahead, count how many displays you see in a day) or they may go broke. Finding out what’s happening is an exercise in parsing press releases (Deciphering News), attending stockholders meetings (Corporations Meet Owners MVIS 2012), trawling through discussion boards, driving past the company parking lot, or even going directly to the source and contacting the company’s Investor Relations official. Put it all together and I still may not come up with an answer, but I learn something every time.

A client (did I mention that I consult with creative people?) asked me how I research small companies. I prefer to value companies based on “Present Value of Future Revenues Discounted for Risk”. Which needs an acronym so how about PVFRDR? I use it because when I buy stock it is usually in a company that has yet to make any money. There’s less competition for the shares because there’s less certainty about what they are worth. I avoid the other end of the investing spectrum because there is great certainty about how much mega-corporations will make, and they are tracked and traded by legions of financial institutions. I invest where there is great opportunity and uncertainty. My risk tolerance is higher than most, which has been dramatically tested these last two years (coming up on the anniversary of the worst partly described in Triple Whammy).

We talked about my method from my book, Dream. Invest. Live., but basically, if I find a company that may be worth $1,000,000,000 five years from now and their current market cap is less than $500,000,000, then buying their stock now would return 15% a year. But it isn’t that easy. There’s always a finite chance they will fail, so the discount for risk is a guess. If they have a 50% chance (and here it helps to know something about the industry and its history) then I check against 0.50 x $500,000,000 = $250,000,000. If they have a 10% chance then I check against 0.10 x $500,000,000 = $50,000,000. Consider yourself perceptive if it seems like there is a lot of guesswork involved. The key for me is that future revenue. Few companies provide a number because they don’t want to go to trial for over-exaggerating the company’s prospects or be charged with attempting to manipulate the stock. We investors have to find the numbers ourselves despite the fact that the company must have a guess because otherwise they wouldn’t have formed the company.

So, lets go back to MicroVision. They have the potential to impact the multi-billion dollar electronic display industry. I’ve held the stock for over ten years and have always felt that this year or next they might finally begin their ascent. Delays have happened every year, but recently the news has become more immediate and the delays are shorter. Products should be available within six to nine months, for the last two or three years. It’s progress. (Hey, next week is within six months.) But wait, news has hit the wire, or the net. Lately the problem has been volume production and someone found some great news. The article uses the words MicroVision and pico-projector, and the numbers $19 and 2,000,000 units and 100,000,000 units, and the times of this year. If MicroVision sold 2,000,000 units at $19 their revenues would exceed their market cap. Play with that 100,000,000 number and Wow! maybe I’d be back to retired again.

Excellent. But the news was in Chinese and most of those words and numbers were surrounded by characters and guesses. Ah, but welcome to the world of automatic translators. Thank you Google! Now everything is in English words and recognizable units, but a string of words doesn’t necessarily become a sensible sentence. This was playing out on the discussion boards and folks dove in to parse the parlance and delve into the data. We may have just stumbled upon a leak, a highly profitable and public trading advantage, and the sort of news that optimists have anticipated for years. Calls for human translations went out through the community. The sparse and improved response confirmed much of what we thought, but weren’t complete professional translations because we were asking for alot and paying nothing.

There were some hints that we found the investor’s version of fool’s gold. The stock moved, so someone knew about the article, but it only went up 20% not 200%; and the volume was up, but not enough to convince me that institutions were jumping in. There wasn’t any press release from the company, but my expectations are so low that I accepted that. Google News didn’t pop up anything, not even the article. It was passed along by a link on a discussion board. The twitter and facebook feeds were quiet, only reporting on the departure of our preferred Investor Relations representative; but, maybe her departure explained the lack of news. Real life human events affect the supposedly automaton functioning of corporations. I even checked YouTube for official or unofficial videos in case someone uploaded some images of a new product. It all added up to nothing.

The news about the news came in. Evidently, the source was an Asian stock tabloid that has a reputation for publishing articles that would probably violate SEC rules. It was published months ago, and either republished or rediscovered. Some of my interpretations were confirmed. MicroVision wasn’t the only company mentioned, though it was prominent. The other players are bigger and may account for the majority of the 2,000,000 units to be shipped. The 100,000,000 units may be a total market number not a 2012 production quota.

So, there was no news, but it was suggestive; so, maybe the exercise was useful. The industry is developing. There are numerous suppliers and customers. If MicroVision was to achieve 10% of a 100,000,000 market and make $10 profit on each unit they’d make $100,000,000. Use a price/sales ratio of 10, a reasonable premium (in a normal market) for a disruptive technology and MicroVision gets a market cap of $1,000,000,000: a thirty-fold increase in stock price (assuming no dilution). OK. Can I have that now, please?

And there the argument/discussion/debate/consideration continues. Are any of the data trustworthy? What if they get more than 10%, or less? What if the market is larger, or smaller, or sooner, or later? How much profit can they make, and will that change with time, technology, competition? Will the markets return to higher premiums for price/sales and such, or are we in a new paradigm?

Yep. Even without any real news, we have a lot more to talk about. Imagine our conversations when we MVIS shareholders really do get good news. It should happen anytime now. Didn’t I hear that an announcement or three were due in the second half of 2012? Hey, look at the date! It’s July 7th! Sometime in the next 180 days or so there should be a really good press release. Aren’t we due? I’ll go check the news.

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Independent Call To Action

Posted on July 4, 2012 by Tom Trimbath

It’s the Fourth of July, an excuse for me to remember my ancestor who signed the Declaration of Independence: Francis Hopkinson. Their fireworks meant something completely different. Flashes in the night sky followed by window-rattling booms were signs that the British were coming. They fought for freedom, and while I prefer the “pursuit of happiness” part, I also know that they had business in mind. I wonder what they would do in our situation and what we would do in theirs. I wonder what we will do with ours. Do we return to social safety nets and rational markets, or do we revolutionize the world again? If anyone in 1776 correctly predicted where the US would be in 2012 it was probably by luck or clairvoyance.

Their call to action came from white men, most of whom were in their thirties and forties, and who were positioned to have attained a position as Delegates to Congress. They weren’t all rich, but I suspect that if they were poor it was from the debts faced by all farmers and merchants. They fought tyranny to attain freedom. Citizens didn’t abolish monarchs; especially, monarchs that commanded the world’s pre-eminent army and navy. It was unheard of (but the Magna Carta should’ve been a good hint.) What Congress did was radical, and continues to be the role model for regime changes. Their courage was personal. If they failed they’d be executed. Well, maybe that part hasn’t changed.

The total population of the thirteen colonies was 2,400,000. Metropolitan Seattle encompasses over 3,000,000. Spread that out over the entire east coast. In 1776, simply showing up was a major event. It was easier to stand out because there were fewer who were available to attend anything besides their crops or businesses. The commute to Congress took weeks for some delegates. Dropping by or Skyping in wasn’t going to happen. Considering the small population, it is amazing how many of them were well-educated, wise, and like I said above, courageous.

Today’s call to action is more diverse and our situation is more complex. If nothing else, more people are involved.

Prepare for a list of somes.

  • Some people probably think that nothing needs to be done, that if everything will recover back to normal if we just give it time. Plenty of the traffic on facebook walls and twitter feeds suggests that many people are simply trying to get on with their lives, but that was true in 1776 (but walls and feeds meant something else).
  • Some people are moving the levers of power behind the scenes, using influence and intrigue to affect change. Benjamin Franklin was a proponent of secret societies, which he subsequently made public in his autobiography.
  • Some think that comedy or hyperbole is the way to address contentious issues, or at least to get the discussion moving past roadblocks. Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert, meet Thomas Paine.

There are plenty of similarities, but there are also differences that make the outcome harder to predict.

  • Our conversation is no longer local. When the colonies broke away, they had the hope of being largely self-sustaining. The adage may be that all politics is local, but now the affects are more likely to be global. If one state or nation bans something, but another makes it legal, there will be migrations. When a disaster strikes Japan, businesses around the world feel the break in their supply lines and consumers can’t get certain products. Debris and pollution spread just as far as before, but the quantities and consequences are far greater. Fortunately, the support flows in from around the planet because we are much more aware of each other now.
  • More people are involved in the debates and notice the consequences. A population of over 300,000,000 Americans means over 300,000,000 opinions even if some of them are trying to use prescribed talking points. Consensus is tough enough in a two person relationship. No wonder we have a tough time getting to an agreement. No wonder compromise may be the only path to solutions. Unfortunately, compromise is out of fashion.
  • Debates – wait a minute, we don’t debate anymore – anyone trying to fully understand an issue today has to either devote an academic level of research to the task, accept a lot of the background on trust, or draw boundaries around the issue at the range of their familiarity. Legalizing marijuana is an issue of personal freedom, legal jurisdiction, health relief, health care, foreign drug wars, hemp fabric production, taxation, and economic. The definitions of life and death were simpler in 1776, but now we know more about what’s happening in the womb, how to fertilize eggs outside the body, and the nature of stem cells, can cure major illnesses, compensate for major traumas, and extend life to the point that it is hard to recognize. Who’s life is it when we haven’t agreed upon a definition of life? And if life is that precious, do we only consider human life?

Last week’s Money And Life conference at Whidbey Institute was more about the money side of the balance; but that is no less complicated. I’ll post more about that after some of the content becomes public, which at least means after Katie Teague’s movie, Money & Life, premieres (and by the way, she’d appreciate donations to finish producing the final cut.) It is apparent that economies, currencies, commodities, luxuries, and necessities are seriously out of balance; and that bringing them into balance involves species-wide consequences. No wonder the European Union is in such disarray. No wonder Kyoto, Rio, and Copenhagen haven’t created global solutions that are enthusiastically pursued and completed.

The Occupy Movement represents just as likely a path to solution. Alvin Toffler’s book, Powershift, suggested that governments would become anachronisms when information became more important than geographical borders. Some people, some individuals, are creating ways to find their own solutions. They are joining together to learn, and the dispersing to enact their independent variations on those solutions. Independence is a powerful tool, and now it can be applied with more awareness of our interdependencies.

As an optimist, I see many possible positive paths to appealing futures. As a realist and someone aware of the mathematics behind systems, I expect us to witness traumatic economic, environmental, and societal upheavals. As an investor, I keep in mind, that if publicly traded corporations continue to exist, that those with positively disruptive solutions are probably going to be in high demand – and so will their stocks. If only I didn’t have to sell stock in the meantime. (Got a job for an aerospace engineer that understands finance, trends, and how to write?)

As an islander, it is time to get out my bike and head over to the Maxwelton Fourth of July Parade. I’ll be part of the Occupy Your Bike troupe, squad, fleet, whatever. Registration is easy. Show up. Ride. Smile. Celebrate our independence and our community. Celebrate our solutions (we won’t be the only group with an idea) and have fun doing it. Happy Birthday America. And thank you, Francis Hopkinson. Did you know how this would turn out? Do any of us?

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