Stock Perspective – SpaceX

As I type, SpaceX’s stock puts the company at a valuation of $2.43 Trillion dollars. A laptop screen can have a variety of sizes, but 2 Million is common enough. Let’s round SpaceX down to $2 Trillion. Each pixel could represent a million dollars. One pixel being enough to retire on. Make it two. We’re talking about numbers that don’t make sense. Let’s try to make sense of them.

Regular readers know I tend to buy stocks in companies that are worth less than $2 Billion. 

If I buy stock in a company that’s worth $100 Million and it becomes profitable, it is not a surprise if it becomes worth $1 Billion. A nice ten-bagger.

Fund managers are business people, and they minimize their costs by buying big companies where they don’t have to worry about the SEC and becoming large fractional owners. They tend to ignore small companies, which works to my advantage.

If I buy enough stock to own 0.1% of a company, and it becomes a $1 Billion dollar company, I become a millionaire. 

There are more reasons to buy small companies (supporting positive disruptive innovation, etc.) but those are the ones that come to mind as investors are buying a stock that starts life as a Trillion dollar company.

Unless you’re buying into a stock for eventual dividends, or glamor value, it can be risky assuming that it is going to grow much. 

Having written that, I also didn’t buy stock in Amazon, Facebook, Google, and several other mega-corps because I thought they were too expensive and too popular. They were, and I still hold to my strategy of buying simpler companies, but they IPOd at relatively low enough prices to have room to grow. And they did. Congratulations.

Fundamental Questions: How much bigger can one of the biggest companies become? How much room is there for the stock to rise?

My current stellar performers are LUNR and QBTS. (Market caps of ~$5B and >$9B, respectively.) At various times since I bought them, they have risen ~2,000% – 4,000%. If SpaceX does that, (2.4T x 2,000%), it will be worth ~$50 Trillion. Nvidia is >$6T. SpaceX would have to redefine the limits. Someone’s billboard will need yet another digit.

Ironically, of the seven companies valued more than SpaceX, five are very familiar in my life: Apple, Google/Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Facebook/Meta. But they all started as much smaller companies.

Fine. Good. Big money is practiced at chasing big money, and big money can make the job less about goods and services and more about lobbying and exploitation.

So, a rocket company is now larger than car companies. It is even bigger than mega-beneficiaries like defense contractors, and most energy companies.When does hubris kick in? I don’t know.

Looking back from 2026, I bought into MSFT, AAPL, ORCL, AOL, PIXR, SBUX, etc. when they were fairly young, the 1980s through the late 1990s. Big names, but they all started small.

(Gee. That review makes me feel better about what I got.)

So, I’m not going to tell anyone to do anything. I just write about me. 

I am going to watch SpaceX, not to buy anymore, but that one stock has sucked up over $2T in investments, and a $2T shift in the market is hard to ignore, especially when it’s influenced by an ultra-oligarch whose goals are mercenary.

What I am also going to be looking for are those companies that will linger in the sidelights, letting all the publicity play out in the rocket-fueled limelights. I suspect there are some good candidates there being overlooked, and underpriced. Imagine how good they can do and how much they can grow.

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About Tom Trimbath

program manager / consultant / entrepreneur / writer / photographer / speaker / aerospace engineer / semi-semi-retired More info at: https://trimbathcreative.net/about/ and at my amazon author page: http://www.amazon.com/-/e/B0035XVXAA
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