Let’s see. The simplest review is: in the most recent six months:
GERN is down ~3%
LCTX is down ~21%
MVIS is down ~60%
GMGMF is up ~7%
SLDP is down ~39 %
QBTS is down ~8%
LUNR is up 31%
Eep, but then, the previous six months were so good that it would be surprising (though wonderful) if they kept up that pace. After expenses and taxes and such, my net worth is down, but only about ~11%. In today’s chaotic world, that feels like within the error band, especially considering the previous period being up over 100%.
Social Security continues to pay. Good. My Boeing pension continues to pay, but just for a storage unit. Business sales (books, talks, photos, consulting, et al.) basically stopped for the last two years as I moved from Whidbey Island to Port Townsend. Really, relatively stable.
As for reality, it does not feel relatively stable.
AI has been slowed, but even at its pace, I’ve heard a projection that an AI should be able to launch an unsolicited viral social media and virus campaign this Autumn, which holds with my educated guess. I think it is already ready.
Climate change continues to change, and doesn’t care if certain humans deny it. I’m glad to see the global acceptance of wind, solar, tidal, current, and geothermal techniques. I’d probably get an EV now, but 1) my trailer park may not be able to carry a larger charger, and 2) I’m waiting on the solid-state batteries which may come soon, and 3) my knee surgery is occupying my mind in the meantime.
Politics are failing, which can be a good thing if we replace them with something new, just not the other party because it’s another party.
Social injustice issues are being countered by current administrations, but they’re gaining momentum regardless, and may accelerate as elections provide an opportunity for change.
And, aliens, because there’s always a chance of things like aliens that may redefine everything.
But what about my investments? I am an amateur futurist. I feel compelled to consider alternative futures. I am also a realist. Tomorrow tends to be like yesterday, until it isn’t. Until then, I invest in companies working on advancing industries. Things will continue to change, and that doesn’t change. I won’t share (rant) about the various prognostications I’ve made which were laughed at way back then that came true. But that is also because many of my prognostications were also wrong. (The US hasn’t officially fractured – yet.)
A luxury would be being able to let my investments ride, ignoring market fluctuations. Yes, I have Social Security and my pension, but growing my net worth requires funds from somewhere else: stocks, my business, good fortune, etc. I am in considerably better financial shape than I was before I sold my house in 2024). My asset cushion has grown from several months to several years. (And has been an interesting lesson in the trap of ‘more’, as well as a reality check on how much more I need to buy a house and its land. More.)
I hope Medicare lives up to its promise and takes care of my knee surgery. I hope my investments recover from the asset redistribution that was folks (or AIs) selling LUNR to buy SPCX (SpaceX). I even hope for my books, photos, talks, and gigs to generate income. I also hope I don’t encounter unexpected expenses. (Don’t we all?)
So, things have slipped a bit, but not horrendously so. My stocks are still in companies that have significant potential and are potentially undervalued. And I trust to good things happening, significantly good things.
And, I still buy lottery tickets.
Wish us all good luck for the new year, and if it is a happy one that will be a bonus.
Read on for my stock synopses. And good luck.
INTRO Here’s my semi-annual exercise to see if I remember why I own the stocks I own, and so I can check back and see if their stories have changed. I post in case it helps others too.
Geron
GERN (market cap is $0.821 B was $0.875B)
Geron is a biotech firm that has a treatment based on telomere management for blood disorders. The same technique may be a lead into other ailments. For years, the company stated that they intended to extend human life (hence the name Geron of gerontology), but most of those assets have been sold off to generate cash. It’s one treatment has been FDA approved, but has had limited commercial success, though that may be a marketing issue and not a technical one.
The company has promise, but less than when I initially invested in them more than twenty years ago.
I look forward to developments and positive patient reports.
DISCLOSURE LTBH since 1999 and continuing to hold, but do not plan on buying more unless I see significant positive changes at the company.
I continue to hold because selling so low has little benefit and I am an optimist.
(I’ve also collected links to the other discussion boards and my other stocks over on my blog. https://trimbathcreative.net/
& from my One Company One Story series on YouTube
Graphene Manufacturing Group
GMGMF (market cap is $0.299B was $0.204B)
Graphene Manufacturing Group, GMGMF for short, is a small company developing solutions through the use of graphene. Graphene had been an academic and lab curiosity, but GMGMF has recently claimed to have sold coatings and such that use it to improve the efficiency of HVAC systems.
I do not expect the HVAC coatings market to be large, but cash flow is handy, and so is the name recognition. I suspect the company’s products will be better known within the technical side of customer companies where word travels mouth-to-mouth, which I won’t witness. I am more interested in their solid-battery work, which is early, though trending towards development within a couple of years.
DISCLOSURE I tend to LTBH, and have held shares since 2024.
Circa 2023, I produced a video about the company on my One Company One Story YouTube channel.
(I’ve also collected links to the other discussion boards and my other stocks over on my blog. https://trimbathcreative.net/)
Lineage Cell Therapeutics
LCTX (market cap is $0.326B was $0.380B)
Lineage Cell Therapeutics, LCTX in shorthand, is an innovative biotech with several products in work. I am familiar with them because of their treatment that uses stem cells to regrow nerves, but am also aware of their work in treating Macular Degeneration. In some ways, they are a mini-conglomerate as they have multiple potential product lines.
Their ability to regrow some nerves in accident victims and in age-related (?) macular degeneration is proven in early clinical trials. Competitors exist, sometimes using mechanical aids to accomplish similar results. I prefer the cellular approach, but the regulatory approval process may make the mechanical approaches easier and quicker to reach approval.
DISCLOSURE LTBH by habit, but having to remember that my LCTX/BTX holdings came from AST (2014), which was spun off from GERN (which I’ve held since 1999). I hear patience pays, but it is easy to have doubts after twenty years of waiting.
(I’ve also collected links to the other discussion boards and my other stocks over on my blog https://trimbathcreative.net/
& from my One Company One Story series on YouTube
Intuitive Machines
LUNR (market cap is $4.64B was $2.75B)
Intuitive Machines (LUNR) is an aerospace firm that is active in space commercialization and colonization. Simply based on my perception, they seem to be more involved in the infrastructure required to establish sustainable operations in space, and in particular, on the Moon. Competition exists, but this is also a market where backups and redundancies are more than recommended.
Having landers fall over is not a good look, but as one post pointed out, they hit 85% of their success criteria even when their lander fell over. Space is risky. The Moon is far away. This work is activated by remote operations. And there are those competitors. They have, however, broadened their service base, and may have improved their financial situation. They aren’t alone, but they are well positioned.
DISCLOSURE LTBH since 2024. Bought more, recently.
(One Company One Video on YouTube – https://youtu.be/fzVaEu7mty0)
(I’ve also collected links to the other discussion boards and my other stocks over on my blog. https://trimbathcreative.net/)
MicroVision
MVIS (market cap is $0.112B was $0.277B)
Oh dear. Am I doing this again? A new CEO? A new direction? Sigh. Back to basics.
MicroVision, MVIS, is an electronic component manufacturer. They are currently being known for their LiDAR sensors, which had been directed towards car manufacturers and others. They had been known for using that same tech, an oscillating mirror on a chip, as a sensor or a projector or both, to create and read optical information. Think of an always-in-focus display that is small enough to fit in a smartphone or a pair of glasses. The LiDAR sensors are also cheap, small, and possibly robust.
MVIS’ products always sound positive, disruptive, innovations, yet for 30 years the company has yet to develop a profitable, sustainable product line. They’re very good on promises. Each CEO has a new set of promises as if the previous CEO or set of promises were flawed. After over 20 years I remain fascinated by the technical possibilities, but wonder if there is an inherent and un-spoken challenge that the shareholders are not being made aware of.
DISCLOSURE LTBH since 1999 (though the very first shares are gone). I continue to hold because the price is so low that the only benefit to a sale may be for tax losses, and because, if only by luck, I think the company may be profitable because a customer wants the product regardless of what management has in mind.
Dilution means that I no longer have more than enough if the company finally succeeds and the stock reaches the heights I think are possible. Some day, some day…
(I’ve also collected links to the other discussion boards and my other stocks over on my blog https://trimbathcreative.net/
For even more details, follow my blog’s tags for MicroVision and MVIS, which reach back a decade.
& from my One Company One Story series on YouTube
D-Wave Quantum
QBTS (market cap is $8.83B was $8.85B)
D-Wave Quantum, aka QBTS, is a small, leading edge, quantum computing technology company. They are receiving recognition for actually producing products and services into a industry that the industry leaders say is years away. QBTS doesn’t seem to care and keeps making products (and profits?) anyway. There are competitors, but one source of my optimism is that the field of ‘quantum computing’ is differentiating itself into a variety of applications. This seems to me to be similar to Intel having so much work to do that a variety of small, innovative companies developed similarly profitable products. This may not be like that, but it could be.
QBTS has gained enough recognition that they are frequently included in news articles about quantum computing. Big firms still get the interviews and emphasize their need for big projects, while QBTS simply gives companies and organizations what they want and need without as much showboating.
Of all my investments, I am most optimistic about quantum computing because it may become more ubiquitous. I hope QBTS continues to play a large and profitable role.
DISCLOSURE LTBH since 2024. Sold some shares to cover my investment. Sold some shares to realize a profit. Sold some more shares to realize a profit because that’s one way I pay my bills. Holding the rest because 1) they’re all profit, and 2) if QBTS succeeds as much as it could, these shares could look cheap, maybe.
(One Company One Video on YouTube – https://youtu.be/Un2k2JFm7fE)
(I’ve also collected links to the other discussion boards and my other stocks over on my blog. https://trimbathcreative.net/)
Solid Power
SLDP (market cap is $0.584B was $0.857B)
Solid Power (SLDP) is a startup working on solid-state batteries. Finally, a name that makes sense. Solid-state batteries have advanced to the point that they’re coming off the lab bench, and the prototype production line, and are waiting for The Large Client. The potential is there (quicker charging, safer materials, fewer foreign interruptions, etc.). When some large firm or organization places a significant order, the stock could have a significant and positive response.
As with many new technologies and industries, there are many companies computing. Also, there is uncertainty about the size of the market. That is one reason among many of why this is a speculative stock and company. Risk/reward, reward/risk; if we knew what worked, this would all be easier.
DISCLOSURE LTBH since 2024.
(One Company One Video on YouTube – https://youtu.be/Xs2kxJgHr0I)
(I’ve also collected links to the other discussion boards and my other stocks over on my blog. https://trimbathcreative.net/)
For more details about the stocks, here are links to various discussion boards where you can find my synopses, as well as others’ points of view. For more details about how I do what I do, there’s a book that I wrote at the request of several friends: Dream. Invest. Live. Maybe you can help my personal finances by buying a copy – though the frugal part of me recommends checking one out from a library.
Many of the independent investors who contribute to the discussions provide in-depth analyses that either aren’t available elsewhere, or would cost too much to buy. The other advantage is the diversity of perspectives. Unfortunately, I don’t engage as much as I did before. Some discussions have degraded due to lack of moderators, or overly zealous moderators (immoderate moderators, an oxymoron), or have too many immoderate voices. Some boards are effectively ghost towns, or feel like cavernous empty warehouses.
“Gold mines produce far more rubble than gold.
It is easy to complain about the rubble.
Ignore the rubble.
Pay attention to the gold.”
Regardless, here are the sites I continue to visit, even if it is only to lurk and listen.
I encourage you to tune in, because more voices (as long as they’re mature) make for a better conversation. Maybe I’ll read you there.
Investor Village (widest range of boards, could benefit from more traffic)
Silicon Investor (Relatively older boards, less trafficked, but populated with informed investors)
Reddit (Many will cringe, but there’s impressive quality within the impressive quantity of posts and voices. I lurk more than post.)
Intuitive Machines (LUNR)
Trimbathcreative's Blog (Tom Trimbath) 