Oh, to have the luxury of patience. I still have plenty of cash, and now I have a bunch more. I sold a bit of QBTS, not because I had to Now but because I’d have to eventually, and it seemed like the market is sliding. I’m glad and sad that I did. 

I tend to buy or sell stock about once or twice a year. I may watch the stocks daily, sometimes hourly, but that’s because I find companies’ stories to be more interesting than sitcoms and scifi. (And I write scifi!) My previous sale of significance was last Autumn. We’re nearly to Summer but I decided not to wait.

As I mentioned in my previous post, my innovative company stocks were depressing as the market runs into uncertainty. In my opinion, most of those companies are doing what they should be doing, at least technically. Considering the emotions of the market, the economics depend more on subjective terms like confidence and worry. I can’t evaluate those as well as the more objective criteria.

As I posted in I Shoulda Coulda Didna Sold, QBTS was one of my candidates to sell for some cash. Sell a bit. Still have a lot left. Wait out the weather in the market. 

I woke with the market, by accident, serendipity, or luck. QBTS was up! Great! Sleep a bit and hope it gets higher. Maybe it will recover, but sell a bit because a cash cushion is one of my most reliable luxuries. Get up. See it dropped. Sigh. Get out of the bedroom and to my ‘office’ (hey, it’s a tiny house, so definitions need to be redefined) and see it’s dropped some more. Sell some, even before making breakfast because this is evidently on my mind, and another luxury is a less cluttered mind. Fine. Not as good as last week, but good enough.

I bought the shares at ~$0.75. I sold them at ~$25. Quit complaining. Optimizing is partly based on luck, so don’t go claiming some ultra-intelligence. As I type, the stock bottomed at just over $22. Last week it was at ~$30. Swings!

Stocks are not eternal commitments. For me, they are investments. In this case, I bought some because I believe/estimate/hope that quantum computing will become a major industry. It may not hit the home market, but 1) many said that about PCs, and 2) even if quantum computers are only accepted in organizations, they can still be a major business. I hope.

‘I hope’ is not a strategy. But this wasn’t purely hope and a gamble. I’ve witnessed several technologies that people laughed at which then did well. (Search this blog for SBUX.) AI seemed to be a bubble, so I steered clear. It also seemed to encroach on some ethical boundaries, which made it easier to look elsewhere. A fundamentally new approach to computing seemed, and seems, due. 

I can’t find my notes from my first purchase (typing this in a coffeeshop) but the market cap was < $1B. Now, QBTS’ market cap is $8.7B. In ~ two years, that’s a good investment. That is good news but also a cause for caution. How much higher can it go? QBTS is not the only quantum computing company. There is some upper limit to the size of the industry. There is some upper limit to the price of the stock. I suspect the market has yet to define either. I also suspect the market can enter a period of irrational exuberance when the technology looks proven, the applications become clear, and masses of investors decide they don’t want to miss out. Folks selling AI stocks now may be looking for The Next Big Thing and park that money here.

Whatever.

It is easy to watch the ticker and focus on that day’s bumps and squiggles. 

The stock is down, for a day.

The stock is down, for a week.

The stock is basically flat, for a month.

The stock is basically up over 30%, for the last twelve months.

The stock went from <$1 to >$23 since I bought it about two years ago.

Pick a perspective.

What will come next: a fall, a rise, or something that fits someone’s narrative in the middle? I don’t know. I know I’ve made a profit, made some cash, and still am invested in a burgeoning, innovative, positive, and disruptive technological company. And I have have some cash. You see, there’s this knee operation coming up, and I’ve started to see the bills. Eep! Glad I had some stock to sell.