Do you know that feeling when you’re walking along a ridge line with a thousand foot drop on either side? No. Of course not; few ever climb mountains. Yet, I suspect a lot of investors feel that way for the last few months. The market has carried them to new heights. They hope it goes higher, but the possibility of a drop is real. Fortunately for stocks, there are exits that don’t require falling off a cliff; and there’s a hope for catching a ride up another ridge.

The stock market has been ridiculous for a couple of decades. Look for the blip that was the Internet Bubble and the Great Recession, and they barely register. Since 2016-ish, the NASDAQ has risen from ~5,000 to ~25,000 (as I type). A 7% rise is normal? Not lately. 5,000 at 7% in 10 years ‘only’ equals ~9800, not 25,000. 10%? ~12968.

These are heady times. 

These are worrisome times. 

The financial news is worried about an AI bubble, probably for good reason. There’s lots of hype. Yay! There’s lots of worry. Boo. There’s also a lot of FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out). Continue on despite your fears! Don’t. If you’re afraid, listen to yourself, don’t discount your perspective. Ideally, find another one.

There is a fear of missing out, and then there’s a worry of finding a better or safer place. Some are already there with mutual funds and such. Higher expectation investors may hang on until the pop, or just past it. They can be big money, and when they sell they hunt for what I call lifeboat stocks, something to weather the storm.

The situation is that, when that big money bails, that community tends to bail, which then leads to scared money hunting for a home.

I’m not sure we’re there, yet, but the recent response to any good news from mega caps seems to be out of proportion for what the numbers say. It is as if a mob has quickly decided to hide from the rain by scurrying from under one tree to another. They may be off the ridge, but trees attract lightning.

In the meantime, regardless of their motivations and philosophies, the rest of us see the market making wide swings, sometimes to our detriment.

Several of my stocks are down significantly, yet most of the companies are making good progress. This seems to be based more on emotion than logic.

I’m glad I sold when I did. 

QBTS hit ~$30. I hoped for more. I sold at ~$26(?). As I type, it is at ~$18.30. The stock is down. Their news is up.

LUNR hit over ~$45. Now it is at ~$12.25. 

On a purely mathematical basis and expecting things to return to a norm, I should buy some more LUNR.

On a practical nature, I will hold onto cash because those are my living expenses.

Some are worried about the market. I worry about it too, but life is here to be lived. Besides, I have some health issues to deal with. (Groan.) Cash is a comfortable cushion.

Until the market gets off that ridge, or finds that the ridge truly does lead to something even better, there will be uncertainty, and this time I suspect the uncertainties are larger than usual. Maybe hanging on to the cash is a better idea than I realized. Maybe there will be some better buying opportunities, soon. Maybe nobody ever knows what’s going on, and investors will always be scurrying about. It makes for fascinating people watching.