Small Recoveries

Posted on February 13, 2013 by Tom Trimbath

Try to remember. Try to remember those days when there was actual enthusiasm when people talked about stocks. The Irrational Exuberance era was appropriately named, but its negative over-reaction hasn’t worn the title it deserves: Irrational Revulsion. For the last few years, it has been impolite to mention stocks in casual conversations. The markets, which are by definition the large companies, are recovering. The stocks I’m more familiar with are from smaller companies that have languished, but that may be changing. That’s good news for my portfolio, but it’s also good news for the country because small companies have been the engine of growth. Witness three companies that may persevere: Dendreon (DNDN), AMSC (previously known as American Superconductor but now just AMSC like its symbol), and Real Goods Solar (RSOL). Sudden news may not be as important as sudden recognition of persistent stories.

Disclosures shouldn’t be put at the bottom. I’ll mention here up front that I’ve owned shares of DNDN (but had to sell), and own shares of AMSC and RSOL. It’s been a bumpy ride.

It would be handy to point back to a stable time in the stock market when theoretical models closely described reality, when stocks were priced based on the value of the company and any variation and deviation in price was part of a free market discussion argued with real money. The last time we had anything like that was back in the era of Pres. Bush, Sr. and Pres. Clinton. Prior to that, the nation was recovering from double digit inflation and interest rates. (Great deals on mortgages as low as 12%! Lock in now!) Then came the Internet Bubble and Irrational Exuberance, which probably would’ve resolved itself in a few years, but 9/11 hit and our fears and anxieties amplified a downturn. The recovery eventually began, until someone went too far, violated assumptions, and nearly imploded the world economy. No wonder few people want to talk about stocks or investing. People in their twenties probably have no experience in “rational” markets.

One sign that markets are irrational is when stock prices are not affected by company news. If the stock is based on a company’s value, and the news affects that value, then the stock should change proportionally. It isn’t straight math because there is plenty to argue about in terms of risks and potentials. Five years ago, DNDN, AMSC, and RSOL were much less mature companies. Dendreon had yet to achieve FDA approval for its revolutionary cancer treatment (Provenge). AMSC was still called American Superconductor because they were developing superconducting power cables, but hadn’t figured out the manufacturing process. Real Goods Solar wasn’t even public yet, but was about to be spun off from Gaiam (GAIA) and launched into the growing solar power industry. Since then, Dendreon’s treatment has worked better than expected. AMSC is producing cable and has expanded into wind power and power integration (Tres Amigas). Real Goods Solar has doubled revenues and continues to grow. Yet, DNDN, AMSC, and RSOL are far below their peak prices or even their prices from back then.

And yet, the stocks are recovering. I think they are worth much more than today’s valuations, and their interim performance suggests that possibility, but the relief is that they are recovering. Since the election, or New Years, or the Inauguration, or the failed Mayan Apocalypse, stocks in the small companies that I follow are rising. DNDN and AMSC are up nearly 50%. RSOL has more than quintupled. (If I type in sextupled will the spam bots mark it as offensive? And if they do, is that because of allusions to procreation or an irrational revulsion towards enthusiasm for stocks?)

Hidden within this discussion is a consequence of arithmetic. Companies are frequently measured by their market caps (the price of the stock multiplied by the number of shares available.) So, if everyone decides to sell a stock and plummet its price, the company can drop from large cap to micro cap merely from the (dis)wisdom of crowds regardless of its value. Some companies are not affected because they have existing product lines, sufficient cash flow, no debt, and competent management. If they persevere they will survive. Other companies are more strongly affected, and what affects them can affect us. Dendreon’s curtailment of a rapid expansion into treating other cancers was arguably required because of an irrational reaction to growth that was lower than expected. In any case, the company may be able to continue adding value that isn’t recognized immediately.

My investing history extends back to the Carter era. Sounds old, doesn’t it? But I was one of those kids who started investing a few hundred dollars before I got my first “real” job. I’m also a fan of history and have learned that every era makes fun of the previous era’s obliviousness. Of course the world isn’t flat. Of course the Earth goes around the Sun. Of course those points of light are other planets, stars, solar systems, galaxies, universes, ad infinitum. Within investing, the lesson I’ve learned is that if an investor and the companies can persevere, stock price eventually reflects company value regardless of the investment community’s interim derision. The market realization of a proper valuation is as abrupt as the depths or heights of the market’s earlier over-reaction. We’ve experienced years of doubt, dismay, and derogatory comments. If our financial system survives (a subject of active debate), then the market re-evaluation of hundreds of overlooked companies may seem extraordinary even though it may only be a return to ordinary.

My perseverance has been tested. As DNDN dropped and Dendreon succeeded, I had to sell to pay my bills. I ran out of DNDN before my other stocks recovered. My mortgage company is not happy about that. I have backup plans layered on backup plans and still can’t pay my bills. Three years ago my portfolio was much more diversified. What remains is a small quiver of small cap stocks representing companies that are making progress, though less than I expected, but with reactions that are greater than anticipated. AMSC announced a relatively large order a few days ago. RSOL announced a collaboration too. Describing the resultant stock price rise to fellow investors was met with disbelief. We’ve become too familiar with small expectations. As I type, RSOL is up about 70% for the day. Unbelievable. And yet, for RSOL to return to it’s IPO price when it was making less money and solar wasn’t in as much demand, RSOL will have to do that two or three more times. (Just checked again as I looked for the IPO price. RSOL is up 78%.)

Even with such recoveries, my losses are so great that it will take weeks of such performance for my portfolio to relax me, and a longer run for complete recovery; but good things can happen, for me, for the companies, for the nation, for us.

Of course, for those who follow such things, maybe something as small and grand as MicroVision reaching its long-anticipated impressive profits will rocket MVIS within a time that pleases me, my portfolio, my mortgage company without testing my perseverance much more. That would be a marvelous recovery.

PS While poking around for links I stumbled across Real Goods’ sweepstakes to win an electric car and enough solar panels to power it. Yes! Sign me up! Offer not available in WA. Wah. Maybe one of you will win.

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Choose Your Emotion

Posted on February 9, 2013 by Tom Trimbath

“Tom, how’s it going?” With a week like these last seven days, the answer changes with the hour.  Luckily, my walk across Scotland was a lesson in picking my emotions. Events trigger emotions as ever, but because of a revelation I am more likely to keep the lows from being as low, am more likely to celebrate the highs, and raise the average. That’s a handy skill in the midst of turmoil, uncertainty, chaos, concerns, and potentials. Every moment contains every emotion. Choose.

The week started with unexpected help with a job search (+), an embarrassing bit of confusion over an event (-), a fun radio interview (+), paying less of a bill than I wanted to (-), various people calling me a Renaissance Man (Renaissance Rebirth) (+), a computer and a car that went from broken to fixed in a time of tight money (+/- +/-), a trio of job setbacks (- – -), a new title of visionary (+), a pronouncement from LinkedIn that I am in the top 1% of people marked as Public Speakers (+), sold a print to an ideal recipient (+), Nebulous Octoberhad a fun dance (+), was embarrassed that I forgot the name of one of the other dancers and had to back out anyway from an offer to dance due to hunger (-), and had a fun time giving a talk about Walking Thinking Drinking Across Scotland at Langley Library (+), and forgetting to tell them they could buy the book (self-inflicted dope slap) (-). How’s it going? Let me check. I just had lunch, a glass of wine, and a nap after getting back from the talk; and didn’t find any bills in the mailbox. Right now it’s going well.

Right now is much better than what I recall from six months ago. There were fewer + signs back then. There aren’t enough yet to pay my mortgage or pay down my credit card bill, but thanks to several clients, the rest of the bills are getting paid. Except for massive positive windfalls, incremental changes are more common. When an airplane pulls out of a dive, as a pendulum swings from high to low to high again, the transition from falling to rising is smooth, not sudden; and at the nadir of the curve, the lateral motion is greater than the downward or upward motion. I certainly have lots of motion, and plenty of hints of progression, but pulling out of this swing is taking a lot of energy.

Cough, cough, sputter, sputter, cough, sputter, varoom is the way an outboard motor can sound as it starts. For me and many of my friends, our finances continue to cough and sputter, but the intervals are shortening, and occasionally the fiscal engines catch for a moment. In some cases, they’re actually getting somewhere with some control of their direction. Amidst the coughing and sputtering though, unexpected expenses like cars, computers, and house repairs can trigger anxieties. The repair costs are far less than the replacement costs, but when your savings are less than new car money, repairs are a noticeable event.

I went on my Scotland trip to relieve some stress, find perspective any rut I was in, and play with the idea of wandering from distillery to distillery. Except for the whisky, that’s what happened. One of the unexpected treasures was the revelation I mentioned about. “I’d learned that every moment held every emotion, and that all I had to do was choose.” Want to know how that happened? Read the book. Hey, maybe even buy it! Walking Thinking Drinking Across Scotland

With a week like I described above, it is easy to get swept up and down. The trio of job setbacks were enough to send some people into depression. Hiding under the covers is an easy and cheap response. It saves on heating bills. Sometimes the bad news sends me into a dark space. I’m not positive all of the time. But the awareness that every emotion is available helps. Even if I don’t know how to tap into a grin or a smile (though I have developed a tool for that – Grin Smile Laugh), knowing that it is possible is a major help.

My string of perverse luck began back in August 2011 (Triple Whammy). I’ve been looking for jobs since then (My Jobs Report Month 17). I’m continuing to try selling my house (Home For Sale Alas) since last May. A year and a half of such events begins to take on the spirit of what will become a farce in retrospect. Well, I’ve waited long enough for so many things that if it’s going to be funny later, I might as well laugh now. I even laughed at the fact that I laughed. And laughing now has had another consequence. My luck has seemed perverse, but I now also realize that if there is perversely bad luck, then it is possible to have perversely good luck, which will be much more welcome and be equally laughable. Laughing my way in, through, and out (with occasional diversions into other healthy emotions) is much more appealing than grinding my way through.

I’m not an expert at choosing my emotions. I only realized the possibility in 2010. The revelation came as a thought and feeling attached to a spider thread that could lead to something more substantial. “I decided to keep a tender mental hold on that emotional thread and slowly reel in that treasure.” I’m still reeling.

Managing personal finances isn’t only managing money. Emotions are tied to money and come with attachments to identity, security, and self-worth. Being able to choose an emotion from a moment begins to disconnect the outside influences on personal finances. What makes me happy doesn’t cost much, though not paying my bills definitely gets me down. Beyond having “enough”, I find very little in advertisements that appeal to me. I like my simple life. Much of it is externally imposed right now, but I know that what I enjoy wouldn’t change much if or when I am a millionaire again. A friend an I were daydreaming, er, planning, about what to do with a lottery jackpot. Both of us preferred to renovate our cars (my Jeep Cherokee Classic that they were silly to stop making, and his old built-to-last-forever-regardless-of-fashion pickup) rather than buy something new. (Though I am intrigued by the electric motorcycles whenever I’m in the ferry line. Motorcycles load first. Electrics don’t have to idle.)

My emotions as I type are a bit reserved. I enjoy public speaking, but it usually takes some time to unwind and get my energy back. I’ll have a cup of tea and sit for a bit after I post and share. Then I’ll dive into the emails and phone calls to follow up from this morning’s talk. Three or four want to talk to me about Scotland, or finance, or a few unnamed topics. In the nature of the small city of Langley, a friend called out as she drove by and as I walked back to my car. She slowed down to invite me to talk at her place. (And caused three cars to line up behind her, which is a major traffic event.) That’s a string of positives (+ + + + +) that makes it easy to pick an emotion.

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Renaissance Rebirth

Posted on February 6, 2013 by Tom Trimbath

Something’s up and I don’t know what, but it may be an epochal change in civilization. Such a change makes me question my assumptions, including those behind my book, Dream. Invest. Live., that is the basis for this blog. Dream. Invest. Live. The Renaissance was such a change. It was unscripted, unplanned, and unexpected. People that effected those changes required courage, curiosity, or naivete. It was a creative and messy process of awakening. If it’s happening again, this change will be the same and different. That’s our nature.

Despite a week-long unplanned Computational Hiatus, my main business activity has been as Interim Project Manager for HCLE, the History of Computing in Learning and Education, a virtual museum of how computers changed education. How we learned changed. What we had to learn changed. Prior to computers, education was based on a scheduled performance where a teacher verbally delivered information, knowledge, insight, and wisdom to an audience of accepted students. Now, anyone can be a student, we can receive almost any information we want at whatever time we choose for free. The teachers may be professionals or eager volunteers who deliver their expertise to resources like wikipedia or the Khan Academy. Education is continuing to shift, and it may take another generation before the switch is complete; but imagine the courage required of those pioneers who introduced computers to the system in the era of punch cards, cassette tapes, and write-your-own software. (By the way, that’s why we’re creating the Virtual Museum, to capture those experiences and sociological changes before those memories are lost or those programs can’t be read and run. Care to join in, donate, or cheer us on? hcle.wikispaces.com Donate enough and I’ll only have to write one last Jobs Report.)

Last night I was watching a documentary (yes, I am a geek) about the Medici called; Godfathers of the Renaissance. Episode one taught me that The Renaissance began with a change in thought based on education. People with education, money, and time began exploring monasteries for ancient texts, more as a treasure hunt than a serious pursuit. One aspect of the hunt was to be able to read what you found. Eventually, the act of reading became more of an education than a performance stunt. There was hidden, and sometimes forbidden, knowledge in those texts. It began to sink in that they’d forgotten things that the Romans knew. The one that struck me was that for hundreds of years civilization forgot how to make concrete. The more important insight was that people they’d talked about in abstract terms, The Romans, were eventually seen as real people and if The Romans could do it, why couldn’t someone in 1400? They looked to others for different points of view and actually invented perspective. The world changed.

Now that my computer is repaired and returned (thanks Gail) I naturally visited my Facebook wall to see what was happening in my friends’ lives. A video I’d shared was being shared around. It went viral long before I found it, so it wasn’t a surprise to see that it was popular. It’s a one minute video of third world people reading first world problems. “I hate it when my house is so big that I need two wireless routers.” finds a new perspective coming from a man standing in front of a house smaller than most suburban living rooms. I shared the video because I liked the way it put most complaints into perspective.

Perspective. Learning from people who many treat as abstractions. Thinking about how education and insights are reaching us in new ways. Noticing the unexpected changes wrought through the Renaissance. What changes are we amidst that go beyond quarterly reports, monthly bills, and national elections?

Over the weekend I was honored to be included in a photography project by Sue Averett called The Emanations of Love Project. I would never have nominated myself to be included, but maybe that was one of the criteria for inclusion.

One of Sue's shots I use for a new bio pic.

One of Sue’s shots I use for a new bio pic.

Sue did a wonderful job of describing her project, so I’ll point you to her site for the details. The piece that struck a chord with the evening’s line of thought was a line from her short bio of me; “A good-hearted Renaissance man, is Tom.” Pardon me as I blush, and yes, it is a mini-breakthrough for me to type such a thing about myself (but that’s another story.)  Enough others have called me a Renaissance man that I’ve jokingly considered having new business cards made. Go to my bio page to make your own assessment. But the more important introspection was, regardless of me, are we in the midst of the next Renaissance? If so, how would it be different?

The Medici supported people who went to remote places to acquire knowledge from people distanced by time. We are crowdsourcing ourselves to acquire remote knowledge from people distanced by geography, economics, and culture. Some seek obscure videos to prove they can find viral material before it’s gone viral. Others are taking that material and learning from it. The video I described above was produced by a charity that advocates for as simple a thing as fresh water. It highlights the reality of people who are normally treated as abstractions.

If this Renaissance (there will be more so maybe we should number them) is about getting past us versus them to realizing that we is global, then we’d be effecting a change greater than any seen in history. That’s heady stuff. Considering the pace of change now, this Renaissance may take decades instead of centuries.

Last night there was also a tsunami alert. Well, there was actually a magnitude eight earthquake too, but the news emphasized the tsunami because it might reach “us”. The warning wasn’t necessary. Google News said so. This morning I had to dig to find any news about the quake. Magnitude eight quakes should be major new events. But very few people were affected. They lived on islands in the South Pacific. So, evidently, it didn’t matter. Evidently, “they” didn’t matter.

My book is titled Dream. Invest. Live. because personal finance is not just about Invest. Invest. Invest. Dreaming and Living are global. Though some dream of a second router; others dream of clean water. I dream of health, emotional ease, and financial security, at the very least. (aka Live Long and Prosper) For now, the basis of the Invest part remains valid enough. But the Renaissance was funded by a revolution in finance. Another could happen again. Ask the Occupy crowd.

Economies are definitely changing. The price of energy may begin to limit travel, and travel is one of the best ways to change perspectives from abstract to real. (Check a recently published excerpt from my Scotland book.) Fortunately, the Internet has come along and provided new ways for us to learn about the rest of us. Am I a Renaissance man? Maybe, but I believe that the courageous, the curious, and even the naive who explore the world via any device may be creating a generation of Renaissance people. The show about the Medici started with the origins of the word renaissance. It basically means rebirth, which is a messy, creative, and positive event. We may be our civilization’s midwives.

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Computational Hiatus

Posted on February 2, 2013 by Tom Trimbath

Remember life before computers? The percentage of the population that does diminishes every day. Even a brief break from them is an adjustment, even for me, and I remember when typing involved a typewriter. My laptop sits here, beside my suddenly over-worked iPad, waiting for Gail to install a new hard drive. It’s winter, and computationally, much is moving a bit slower. That’s probably going to change.

Traffic to this blog has doubled since twelve months ago; yet, there’s been a collective pause as people wait for dramatic news. Has the house sold? No. Have my stocks recovered? No. There weren’t even any good MicroVision rumors out of the Consumer Electronics Show. Book sales are walking along with the release of Walking Thinking Drinking Across Scotland; and yes, I probably will produce a paperback version soon, but first I want to finish a client’s book. Speaking of clients, my consulting work was entering a new phase just as the hard drive started chattering instead of just whirring. There is good news, but I suspect the traffic awaits the celebratory level of announcements that my finances have dramatically improved. Maybe it will happen that way. Maybe it won’t. In the meantime, most folks can concentrate on other aspects of their lives. I’ll holler if something happens.

For the last few days, I’ve been on a computational hiatus. This iPad can do a lot, but it can’t do the detailed or quality level of work I prefer. I can keep up, but I can’t progress. I can’t apply for jobs. Announcing this weekend’s upcoming talk in Langley Has been difficult. By luck, my Scotland photos are on my iPad, so I’ve been able to upload a few to my new online gallery at FineArtAmerica.com.Vanishing Horizons But I’ve had to put aside the fine formatting of grant proposals, or extracting project data from massive spreadsheets. It makes me that much more aware of the more permanent digital divide others are forced to live with. I should be back up to full connectivity by Wednesday. For others, it may be never.

I’ve taken the time to take some time. Fortunately, the founder of my major project, Liza Loop, founder of the History of Computing for Learning and Education, understands. And this happens to happen during a hiatus in our process. Better now than earlier or later. (By the way, I now have the title of Interim Project Manager. Care to make it more permanent? Then help us raise funding to create a virtual museum for software and educational documents that redefined the way we learn. hcle.wikispaces.com)

As I said, I’ve taken the time to take some time. (And no, I can’t readily go back and edit what I type. Sorry, wordsmiths, but such is blogging from iPad.) It has been months since I took more than an hour to sit and think. Strategies, tactics, or even just relaxing haven’t been much of an option while I scramble to make enough money to appease the mortgage company. Thanks to clients, patrons, and benefactors I’ve been able to pay all of the other bills and even have enough for a new hard drive. That was a pleasant and undramatic revelation. Thanks, folks.

The other major benefit is one that is valuable regardless of finances. I had time to relax, to think, and to feel. It is relaxing to sit for a few minutes, but it wasn’t until I’d disconnected for a day that my mind untensed. I realized how, even after an hour of doing nothing, my mind was still tensed, prepared and waiting to dive back into a cerebral task. Two days later, my forehead wrinkles were less engrained. A few days into  this hiatus, various emotions feel safe enough to say hello again. (Though, typing on an iPad has scrunched things up a bit. That will pass.)

Friends surviving the corporate cubicle world call and vent about the constant level of urgency, even for non-urgent businesses. As a society, we complain about stress, but it is a required fashion. Suits and ties may have acquiesed to casual clothes, but casual doesn’t describe typical corporate culture.

I look forward to returning to full computational operations. There is much work to do. The mortgage company continues to call and I continue to do things like eat. But, I’ve now reminded myself that what I’m working towards aren’t the things in advertisements. I’m working to feelings, feeling at ease, a relief from stress, and time to appreciate it all. I look forward to frequent, intentional, pleasant, computational hiatuses.

And, I look forward to a real keyboard, a mouse, and helping people build museums, publish books, construct houses, live their lives, and dance!

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Relax And Enjoy Or Else

Posted on January 30, 2013 by Tom Trimbath

Hey Gail, my computer is heading your way. Today’s bLog is brought to you from my iPad because my laptop’s hard drive is making clicking noises. Gail LaForest of The Tranquil Computer will swap out the old with a new, next week. In the meantime, I guess I’ll be taking it easy, whether I wanted to or not. Sometimes we pick our vacations. Sometimes the universe suggests we slow down. If we don’t stop occasionally, we may get stopped permanently, like my previous hard drive. Relax and enjoy.

I took longer vacations when I worked at Boeing. Use it or lose it was the motto regarding accrued vacation days. When I retired at 38 (evidently a temporary condition) I listened to the advice that advised against sitting around. Not a problem with my childhood-engrained work ethic. I backed off considerably, but I started teaching karate and eventually began writing books. (My fingers shudder at the thought of writing a book via iPad. This ain’t easy.) A while back I realized I lived a Rule Of Seven, which is more a guideline than a rule. Check that old post for details. I my current situation it means working every day; especially, since I haven’t been paying the mortgage. That’s  a tough rule, but tough times require concentrating on necessities over luxuries.
Of course, relaxation is not a luxury. Even machines must take a break on occasion. Maintenance happens. The human body is marvelous at self-repair,
But sometimes it must sit still to do so. The converse is true too. I’ve been busily sitting still, working on the computer so much for the last few months, and the weather has been so hypothermic, that I haven’t been running as much. Dancing isn’t as frequent as it was. Yesterday, about the time I realized I should set aside the computer, my back tweaked. Over decades my back and I have negotiated a recovery plan: lay down and read, then get up and walk or run. Yesterday was a sodden day. Today I started with a walk. I’ll go for another after I post this.
This break actually comes as a good time. I mailed off a major completed work package (a development plan for the History of Computing in Learning and Education Virtual Museum). A friend and client’s manuscript finally cleared Amazon’s CreateSpace hurdles (book announcement to follow). A couple of job postings and referrals are in the hands of insiders. A custom art order was mailed to it’s new happy home. And I filed and paid my state business taxes on time.
Retracting from conventional life heightens the awareness of what is missed. My iPad is useful, but not useful enough to manage my online photo galleries. Walking, bicycling, or busing are useful, but I’m ten miles from Langley, and even the bus stop is 1.6 miles from my house. Even casual socializing is no longer casual. My stalwart Jeep has a few issue (I don’t roll down the driver’s side window unless necessary) and gas is expensive. Staying home is my preferred option. Even home projects are put on hold pending funds.
And then I think about life prior to computers and cars. People lived full lives entertained themselves with books, friends, and quiet time. That old image of sitting in a rocking chair on the porch was real. I wouldn’t do it in today’s weather, and if I had a pipe the stuff I’d put in it wouldn’t be tobacco; but, the idea remains valid. What we need to relax and enjoy isn’t our stuff. It is us. I have to be willing, and then actually dive into, relaxing and enjoying. That’s a phenomenally frugal notion.
The responsible part of me can focus too easily on responding to the mortgage company’s valid concerns. I want to pay my bills and honor my commitments too; but, I’m also responsible for the other aspects of my life, including my mental and physical health.
So, I’ll draw this to a close, see if I can upload it, try to insert the links or even an image or two and then listen to the hints being delivered in batches to slow down, relax and enjoy – because I certainly want to avoid the or else.
Sorry folks, no links, not even to Dr. Craig Weiner and EFT and the effects of emotion and stress on the body. Rats.
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My Jobs Report Month 17

Posted on January 26, 2013 by Tom Trimbath

Another resume, another web site update to include the link, another edit to my bio page. Another “Sorry, but you’re over-qualified.” Another month looking for a job. Another My Jobs Report. Month 17 draws to a close with no official change in my employment status. Many of last month’s hopes have faded; but, this month’s hopes are more hopeful. One good sign = there’s only one overdue bill, my mortgage.

Thanks to everyone for the gifts that helped me through the holidays. At times like this, breaking the cash-as-gift taboo is welcome. Shopping for food without worrying as much about the bill is a relief. A friend and client also helped out by paying for work before I delivered the product. (Propane Check) Washington State appreciates the subsequent on-time payment of my business’s 2012 taxes. The gifts of wine, cheese, and sausage are keeping well, and will be meted out through February. My dad even sent me a funky version of a nerf ball that has been bounced off most of the walls. Not A Nerf

Every month I’ve hoped that writing My Job Report would be a celebration and a finale. Last month there were three or four appealing prospects. The one that pays the most had the thinnest communication channel. The one that paid the least had the most encouragement. Here, at the end of January, the one that pays the most continues to tantalize from the horizon. The one that had the most encouragement, which would pay almost not quite enough, was the one where we agreed that I was over-qualified, and that that was a good thing – well, I didn’t get the job because Shock! I was over-qualified. I guess “was” is the wrong word, because my qualifications haven’t changed. (Being pronounced over-qualified, knowing I’m not the only one, then hearing about corporate pressure to go overseas for hiring because there aren’t enough qualified Americans for the jobs convinces me that they aren’t looking, or can’t see beyond their own dysfunctional processes. And yes, I know my qualifications may not meet their requirements, but surely we can find a better way to match citizens to the national need.)

In the meantime, I’ve backed away from a couple of entrepreneurial opportunities because it was easy to envision eventual involvement with the Attorney General’s office. They hadn’t done anything untoward, yet; but, they thought my concerns weren’t worth considering. OK, time to go.

To balance those though, there are a few other opportunities that are positively intriguing. Somehow, without advertising, folks are asking me to help start their businesses. I do advertise my consulting skills; but, several people have approached me as a possible partner instead of as a consultant. They want more of me. I like the trend. Now if we can only find funding.

The best news is that I’ve effectively completed my largest work package for a client. During the first few weeks of 2013 I put together a program plan and development strategy, on-time, on-budget, and with thanks from the client. (reminder to self: update resume, again) We worked so well that I’m starting on the next work package, drafting proposals, which may lead to – dare I say – reasonably paid, committed part-time employment. Part-time employment means I can also pursue the rest of my business part-time as well, or take on another project as a part-time employee or partner there, too.

By the way, I apologize for not being more direct with names and details but, struggling businesses and people trying to decide about business strategies frequently prefer anonymity and discretion. The business plan that looks like it must dance along the edge of ethics might find a slight tweak that returns it to a comfort zone. No reason to besmirch a name for a temporary consideration of impropriety. The scrupulous business aimed at humanitarian needs met in an egalitarian fashion may not want to raise expectations too high.

As for My Job Report, various bits of advice continue to swirl. There’s a common definition of insanity that I suspect isn’t clinically accurate even if it is descriptive, “Sanity is continuing to do the same thing and expecting different results.” That runs counter to, “If at first you don’t succeed, try, try again.” Seventeen months of applying for jobs is a lot of opportunity to consider both pieces of advice. Then I check in my intuition and hear another common comment, “Can you take a hint?” Maybe I don’t have to apply for jobs. Maybe I don’t have to have conventional employment.

One of the classic pieces of advice for job seekers is that networking and word-of-mouth are more successful than applying for jobs by answering ads. Neither has succeeded, yet; but, the most promising prospects have usually come from personal contacts. When I started my job search, the majority of the time was spent cruising job sites. I checked daily. As I branched out, I added weekly nationwide searches, then monthly international searches. Considering the response and success rate, I’ve scaled back to weekly international searches on an irregular schedule. To keep from doing exactly the same thing every time, I’ve taken to revising my resume for style and eliminating content. (Thanks. I’ll get those books back to you somehow.) I won’t close that door unless I must.

Seventeen months of hints have made it apparent to me that, especially for people who are “over-qualified”, the best way to find a job is to make a job. My consulting work is gaining traction. It’s busier, more visible, and drawing in more revenue. My work is usually also followed with the comment that I should charge more. That may happen, but probably not for folks that I’m already working with. That’s one way I can show my appreciation for them being there when I needed the business the most. Finding a job by making a job isn’t easy either. It’s taken either seventeen months or fourteen years, depending on how you want to count it; and, it still can’t pay the mortgage. Making my own job isn’t in my complete control, clients and customers rule, but I have even less control over resume bots.

I won’t try to predict what will be in next months’ job report. A call can come in from the dozens or hundreds of lingering job applications I’ve filed. My network may deliver an unexpected opportunity. One, two, or more of those entrepreneurial projects may find funding and pay us to do good work at good pay while having fun. Clients may commit to consultations after months of one-of-these-days. I don’t know. But, I’ll keep trying, in different ways, while taking those hints the best way I can.

Stay tuned. (Oh yeah, and who knows, wouldn’t it be a kick and a lot of fun if I hit the jackpot? It can happen, and then maybe some of those projects will have found their funding.)

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Frugal Examples

Posted on January 23, 2013 by Tom Trimbath

Great ideas come from outside my head. Imagining that we can do everything ourselves, being the ultimate independent, and exclusively self-made person may be noble ideals, marvelous accomplishments, and possibly delusions. As someone recently said, “you didn’t build that“, which followed the equally important part of the quote, “If you were successful, somebody along the line gave you some help.” And if you didn’t recognize that as a President Obama quote, then you manage to follow politics even less than I do, which is impressive. Lots of ideas are sent my way by people hoping to help me out of my financial strife. Most are repeats, but a few march through with fresh ideas that make me go, “Hmm.” One idea about frugality was delivered via the frugal medium of twitter, an idea of doing more with less came in from a channel that limits the message to 140 characters. That made me go, “Hmm”, with a chuckle.

The divine Ms. Michaelene McElroy, known on twitter as @MichaeleneM, and known newly-minted author who is becoming known for her book, “The Last Supper Catering Company” (how’s the sequel coming?) delivered this tweet in response to one of my blog posts.
“@tetrimbath Tom, it might be time to start holding “Frugal” seminars.
Practical tips on how to save $$ during troubled times.”
The thought hadn’t even come to mind.

Frugality is engrained in me. Without the word being used or the topic being discussed I witnessed it daily as a child. It wasn’t until I had my first mortgage that I realized how much of a struggle it must have been for my parents to raise me comfortably. I always considered us upper middle class because there was very little that I wanted but couldn’t have. Yet, as a kid, I knew that my mom wanted those windows that were lots of little panels and that we couldn’t afford them. So, in a very Martha Stewart moment before Martha Stewart began sharing her moments, my mom took out some electrical tape and made the windows look like leaded glass. Sounds odd? Only in retrospect. Like many of Martha Stewart’s craft projects, if you don’t know how it was made, you simply accept the effect. That tape never seemed to fade or peel and I can’t remember a time when it wasn’t on the living room window. By the way, some part of me proudly defends my mom because her name was Martha too, and as far as I am concerned, she came first.

Frugality has become more of a conscious act, partly that’s because I recognized that frugality helped me (temporarily) retire early, it is a core concept in my book, Dream. Invest. Live., and I championed it as Board Secretary of The New Road Map Foundation. I give due nod to the book, Your Money Or Your Life, where I first learned that frugal could also mean respecting the resources in my life, including money, time, people, and the planet. (I’m actually a case study in the new edition. I never saw that coming, either.) As my finances degraded in 2011 and 2012, my frugality turned from a lifestyle choice, to a lifestyle necessity. Fortunately, that transition was easier for me than for those who’ve never lived frugally.

Even though I talk and write about frugality, I’ve mostly limited my discussions to the finances and balancing that with this slice of time called a life. The details of frugality are implicit for me, and it wasn’t until Ms. McElroy’s tweet that I considered doing anything explicit. Yes, small houses are more comfortable than big ones, at least for me. Yes, as I wrote in an earlier post how I enjoy dining in rather than out. Yes, I consider it a treat to walk to a client instead of having to drive. Yes, I may have curtailed the occasional enjoyment of single malt scotch; but, I’ve also learned how easy it is to make my own flavored vodkas, frequently using herbs from my yard or leftover spices. Gotta trim so much rosemary that I could never use it all? Well, steep some sprigs in vodka for a few weeks and produce a martini that goes well with stew.

As much as I like the idea, and am willing to pursue it if there is sufficient interest, I look around at all of the fine examples of frugal champions: Martha Stewart, in her own way; The Ultimate Cheapskate, Jeff Yeager; entire communities, like the Simple Living Forum; and most of my artist and advocate friends who have turned frugality into expressions of style and passion. You can’t experience it, but just thinking about my community made me pause at how some with far less than me manage to so expressively live.

An image flashed to mind: a frugal band would probably include the modern day equivalent of a washtub bass and a washboard snare. I guess that would be the five gallon bucket and the steel drum. Spoons still work.

So, just for the fun of it, we could Start A Hangout on Google+ where we’d talk about such things. We could create a community called The Frugals. (Done. At least at the start I’ve set it up as moderated until I get a feel for the spam traffic.) There’d be plenty of proud experiments to proclaim and celebrate. No sales pitches, people, and let’s skip the politics. There’d also be the appropriate caveats. Spiced vodka is easier than spiced homegrown herbs, at least for me. Of course, if I’d washed the bugs and such from the herbs first – ah, but lessons learned, eh?

I ponder a lot. In particular, I ponder, “How did I ever end up in this situation?” A common ponderence. For a while I pondered such questions by watching the fire in the fireplace. Then during a burn ban, I scaled back and pondered by putting a candle in the fireplace and found that the thoughts and feelings flowed just as easily, especially with a spiced martini in hand. A candle cost less than a fireplace load of wood, too. It turns out that the flame from an oil lamp works almost as well, but that scaling back to an LED is going too far. One candle Frugality is not a race to an extreme, but a search for balance. Find the true value and concentrate on that. Fortunately, in today’s world, there is immense implicit wealth. Advertisers tell us to buy the biggest television or the fanciest car or fastest computer. But The Daily Show is just as much fun on the small screen. My Jeep (not a Grand) Cherokee is fine, even if they don’t make them anymore. And almost everything I ask my computer to do gets done far faster than if I tried doing it myself.

So, I think I’ll take Ms. McElroy’s advice (and go buy her book, and go buy one or all of mine while you’re there – though the frugal part of me suggests going to the library); and maybe the Google Community will answer part of that need for questions, answers, and celebrations whether it comes from my head, hers, or someone else’s. The more examples, the better. Of course, if you want to pay me to drop by and talk about it, too; well, that’s frugal as well because it respects the resource that is my experience. Oh, such an admission may be a breakthrough for me. I must ponder this. I think I’ll go light a lamp or maybe even a candle.

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Propane Check

Posted on January 19, 2013 by Tom Trimbath

Ta da! Yesterday my business received the largest check in over a year, which was appropriate because it was compensation for the largest work package for a client in over a year. The mail was delivered just before lunch. I toasted my work by including a glass of wine with my meal, sat back down to get some more work done, and listened to the propane truck back up the driveway. Money comes in. Money goes out. So it goes. The trick is to have less going out than coming in. At least for that day, that was the case, thanks to a simple, frugal lifestyle.

My home is small (and for sale). My propane tank is big. Keep the heat turned down a bit and the truck doesn’t have to visit very often, maybe two or three times a year. Each visit could be a large bill, and is relative to power and such; but, my neighborhood association worked out a great bulk buy a few years ago. Thanks, folks. But everything is relative, and relative to my income, last winter’s propane bill was big enough that I had to sell my kayak to pay it.

"Quick! You grab the kayak. I'll get the skis. We're out of here!""Ah, dude, I think we might have a few problems with your plan."

“Quick! You grab the kayak. I’ll get the skis. We’re out of here!”
“Ah, dude, I think we might have a few problems with your plan.”

2013 is different and better. A fair amount of work for a client who was willing to help out by paying prior to the work’s completion meant I was able to make a deposit, have enough for the propane and probably the business taxes or my health insurance or both. I’ll know when I work up my taxes, real soon.

One simple, frugal act that made the balance easier was my judicious use of the thermostat. I’m not as temperature sensitive as some, to the point that I’m known for wearing shorts most of the year. But I also like hot tea, wearing sweaters, and lounging under thick blankets; not necessarily at the same time. Guilty pleasure: Take a nice, hot shower, then wrap myself in clothes or blankets that are fresh out of the dryer. I’ve hiked enough that sleeping in my sleeping bag is trip to a marvelous comfort zone. Add a layer. Brew a hot drink. Turn down the thermostat about three degrees. And the propane bill shrinks.

2013 is looking good. We’re only one-twentieth of the way through the year and my business has already made one-tenth of 2012’s revenue. Today’s class in Social Media (Getting Started with WordPress) was fun, and nudged the deposit up a bit. Another client or two have made progress towards commitment and payment. One is even considering paying me for all of the advice I’ve already provided as we sit and define the work package. Evidently, even casual conversations contain worthwhile insights. 2012 was a long string of possible collaborations, lots of negotiations, plenty of conversations, but only a few completed projects because only a few could find funding. This year people are more likely to say, “Yes.” They’re done talking, or at least are more eager to get to work. Fine by me. Trying to talk everything through before beginning one iota of work is an invitation to infinite digression and no progression. Squinting at the far horizon and trying to discern the exact path may work for GPS-aided navigation, but most human endeavours require a more iterative approach. Aim at the far horizon. Agree on the first step. Take it. Then decide on the second step. Repeat until a goal is reached. Take a break. Aim again.

After I taught today’s class, I drove into Langley, the downtown of South Whidbey, to make the deposit, check my lottery tickets (Sorry. Not a winner.), and visit the library. The architect of Langley’s Library is to be commended, as are the craftsfolk who built it, and the folks who found the funds to get the work done. I went in for a couple of reasons. 1) To get the proper IRS forms that must be filled out in quadruplicate and can’t be downloaded from the web. They’re not in yet. 2) To check on any advertising about a series of talks I’ll be giving there over the next three months. I was hoping to find some fliers or postcards to hand out. They didn’t have those. Instead they had an oversized poster announcing “Tom Trimbath Presents!” On one large well-placed sheet they publicized my upcoming talks about my most recent book, Walking Thinking Drinking Across Scotland; an overview of Getting Started With Social Media, an eight hour workshop condensed to a two hour talk: and Twelve Months at Double Bluff, my recently completed photo series of Whidbey’s everyday beauty.Twelve Months At Double Bluff on blurb

Add it all up and the total is for a very nice couple of days. I’m even glad the propane truck came by because I now have enough propane for the rest of the winter, I hope, and because it proved to me that my frugal use of the thermostat had used much less propane than the same season last year.

At the same time that I have the fewest active job applications out in the world, I’m noticing that my work is picking up, and that my friends are getting busier too. I dropped by a couple for different reasons and different projects to see if they would be available to help, and they were so busy that they turned it back my way, asking me if I wanted to help them. Last year most of us were wondering what to do. So far this year many of us are busy while waiting for checks to arrive. Soon it may be that people are able to go beyond basic bills and start paying for things like fixing turn signals, or mending cracked windows, or getting some ache tended. I’ve got a long way to go before being able to pay the back mortgage, but there are hopeful signs.

In today’s class about WordPress, the topic of Social Media came up (note the caps.) What good are Facebook, Twitter, and the rest? (Sign up for February’s Facebook workshop and March’s Twitter workshop!) Sole-proprietors, entrepreneurs, artists, and active advocates can spend a lot more time in front of their computers that they could if they were working in a corporation. Recently, because of Facebook chat and Twitter feeds, I’ve noticed how many of them are working into the evenings and into the night, weekdays, weekends, and holidays. We use social media for mutual commiseration and encouragement. (Let me check. Yep, here it is Saturday evening and there they, we, are.)

Work is gaining traction. Somewhere, money started flowing into the system, positively reinforcing existing efforts. I hope this is the returning of the tide to the back bays of small business. The rising stock market suggests corporations in the deeper water are already floating free. Dare I hope? For me, others like me, people who have lost almost everything, people who have been forced to redefine their lives, maybe we’re returning to an economy where hard work really does pay, where fear is replaced with fervor, and where stress is replaced with ease.

For now, I may not turn up the thermostat, but I will turn on the little electric heater to take off a bit of the chill; I’ll heat up some nice, homemade beef and vegetable soup; and, then I’ll decide between going to tonight’s dance or watching a movie. Oops. I just remembered. There’s a bit more work to do first.

Stay tuned.

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Pesky Raccoons

Posted on January 16, 2013 by Tom Trimbath

Pesky raccoons. One of them woke me this morning, two hours before dawn. It was in the carport, successfully knocking over a garbage can. Of course, I didn’t know what was making the sound until I opened the door. I was ready for almost anything: someone breaking into my car (not that they’d find much), an unexpected wind blowing open a shed door (but the night was calm), maybe even something moving from an earthquake. (There actually was one last night, but it was only a 0.9.) Nope. It was none of what I expected. It was a pesky critter trying to get something out of nothing, and not worrying about manners. I do thank it though. It woke me from a dream that I will ponder and remember. Annoyances can inspire insights.

I actually felt a bit sorry for the raccoon. Last night was clear and cold, below freezing with a hard frost and black ice on the roads. The raccoon wasn’t driving, but if the roads are freezing, the wildlife is probably uncomfortable. Evidently, my carport was marginally warmer than the storm pipes or the blackberry patches that surround my property. Lured in by warmth and then enticed by the aroma of garbage. Ah, we all have our seductions. Of course, regular readers know my garbage can is usually empty. When I opened the kitchen door, the can was on its side, the lid was off, and the raccoon was backing out of a garbage can that was only filled with a plastic liner. How disappointing. I turned on a light. The raccoon sprinted to get under the car, and then it sped from under the Jeep to under the deck. That was probably relatively warm too, but didn’t smell as good.

Without being fully awake, it was easier to let my mind work with imagery instead of facts and logic. It woke me from a dream about a pod of blue whales breaching and playing. In the dream, I was tasked with counting them, was distracted, but then strongly encouraged to count them all before I woke. I thought about the dream as I walked back into kitchen and put away the lantern. (Thanks for the present, Dad.) The whales felt like blessings, strengths, virtues, and good fortunes that I was being asked to count, and to count them all. Deep, eh? So, then the trickster part of my brain asked about the raccoon. My intuition immediately leapt to an analogy of my mortgage company. They’re uncomfortable (I haven’t paid the mortgage in months), they think there’s a chance they can get something they want (the back payments), they don’t care if they are annoying or unwelcome (Mortgage Company Tactics), and they end up with nothing despite their efforts (but hey, I’m working on Backup Plans. Stay tuned.)

Through this recent economic turbulence, I’ve met three groups of people (they do not account for the entire populace):

  • One group has more than enough and knows it but handles much of the discussion in academic and abstract terms,
  • One group has enough income, but not enough assets, or vice versa and lives in fear of losing what it has,
  • One group has less than enough income and less than enough assets, and has broken through the fear of loss because the loss is behind them.

As so many TED talks paradoxically proclaim, it’s the last group that has some of the happiest people. My favorite is Mike Rowe’s talk. In it he alludes to something he said on his show too. Basically, instead of following your passion and finding a joyful job, the most joyful people are the people who bring their passion to whatever job they have. Monday, on my birthday, I got the call from the back telling me that I didn’t get the job because they thought I was over-qualified and that I’d be bored. Take a look at my bio. The reason there are so many things on it is because when I decide to work on something I try to bring energy to it, whether that is investing, engineering, program management, teaching karate, writing, photography,Scatchet Head Rainbow Sunrise public speaking, or consulting. He saw the job as simply filling out paperwork for checking accounts. I saw the job as working with, in, and for the community of people that I love. How could I be bored with that?

Several of us less-than-enough-ers (LTEs?) have had similar conversations in the last week. Laid-off? Yep, but watch that face light up when she talks about working with animals. Lost even more than me? Yep, and witness the unabashed serenity of revelation that comes from experiencing what really matters, persists, and brings joy into a life. Lived through months of anxiety, then awareness, then got a job? Wow! Watch what happens when someone whose core values have been tested and revealed is then given the resources to live a redefined life.

A couple of friends have separately offered to take me out to dinner for morale and for my birthday. I tell them what I really want is for them to come to my place so I can cook for them. I enjoy cooking for people more than I enjoy eating out. Eating out, especially on Whidbey, involves some very talented chefs and cooks. People travel here to eat. But dining out anywhere usually involves noisy rooms, a bit of caution in the conversations, negotiations with the kitchen over food allergies and tolerances, a bill that totals more than I spend on food in a week, and a scheduled departure because either the restaurant wants the table or the staff needs to go home. A dinner at my place won’t be as elegant, and I’ll have to do the dishes, Thanksgiving Kitchen Sculpture and there’s an element of culinary risk because I am not a professional. But, there can be music or no, which also means there can be dancing or no; many hands can have more fun working together on a meal, especially if green things are involved; the conversation can range broader without concern for eavesdroppers, unless the raccoons are listening; the wine costs less and pours more freely; the menu is ultimately customized for comfort, diet, or elegance; the evening can last as long as desired; and there are leftovers!

I look forward to having more than enough again. I am glad for the lessons I’ve learned about my self and the world; but, I don’t think it’s necessary to pass through deprivation to reach revelation. I certainly wouldn’t require it of everyone. Billions are living that lifestyle without a choice and I’m sure most would trade it for reliable food, shelter, warmth, water, health, security, and freedom. But I will nod to the raccoon for reminding me that I don’t consume much, to the mortgage company that has revealed personal hot buttons for me to work on, and to these last months which have stretched to years that have shown me friends and core truths that have been strong enough to persist despite misfortune.

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Maritime Ties

Posted on January 12, 2013 by Tom Trimbath

My condolences to those people who have birthdays close to Christmas. It is so easy for them to miss out on gifts. I, however, am lucky enough to have my birthday in January; which means that whatever I didn’t get for Christmas is on sale before my birthday. My dad reads this blog (not a surprise, eh?) and noticed my Christmas Wishes from 2012 – after he’d bought my Christmas presents. So, he decided to have some fun buying me my birthday presents. Maybe I shouldn’t have admitted to a Merchant Marine Veteran that I am bad at tying knots. Ah, but I do give myself credit for noticing what ties us, what connects us.

I was never a Boy Scout. My first classes in knot tying were when I moved to Seattle and began my very intermittent sailing endeavours. One of these days I’ll get a bowline right without having to think about it three times. Getting knots made quick and right was essential, and still is, for sailors. The bowline that takes me a minute and two hands to make can be made one-handed with a practiced flick of the wrist. I’ve seen it. The faster the knot could be made and set to whatever it was attaching, the faster vessels could be made safe and the sooner the company was paid. Tugs and barges relied on such expertise. The faster they could tie up the more likely they were to get a job to move a ship or prove the job was complete; and for safety, letting tonnage drift is usually dangerous so a knot must be made correctly and quickly. I don’t have such needs, and now it is possible to secure almost any household load with velcro, duct tape, buckles, or zip ties.

I asked for very long zip ties. My dad sent me his versions: one of which actually works as a mariner’s version of a cowboy’s bolo tie. This is a tie. This is a zip tie. I think tying that knot would take me about a week. Oh, and I won’t be wearing my dad’s tie to go dancing. A friend saw it and pointed out that some dancer who had sat out too long might use it to drag me back onto the dance floor. Gag.

I’m reminded of my family’s sailing heritage every day. My dad’s time in the Merchant Marine was in World War II. He drew the unlucky straw and was on one of the ships that picked up the ammunition we no longer needed against the Germans that was then carried halfway around the planet for the invasion of Japan. No smoking, really. By the time he got there a bigger threat had hit another fleet. A Pacific typhoon slammed into Okinawa just before he got there. A couple of generations earlier, one of my ancestors spent time at sea when knots were even more critical. The only power his ship had was the wind that carried him from Liverpool around Africa to India to New York to Liverpool. First Voyage He was sneezed on by a whale, witnessed a suicide across a table, survived a tidal wave, saw Imperial India through his 14 year old rascally innocence, and spent most of the time aboard with an unsolved murder which meant time spent in close proximity to an unrevealed murderer. My life’s adventures are much more benign – well, there was the time in the steel mill, but I digress.

My house has a view of the shipping lanes of Puget Sound. Ships don’t sail anywhere they want. There are traffic lanes, navigation signs, and rules. Every major ship coming in to Seattle, Tacoma, Everett, and Bremerton goes past my house. Container ships, car carriers, bulk freighters, ocean barges bound for Alaska, cruise ships, ice breakers, Coast Guard cutters, research vessels, and plenty of Navy ships from submarines to aircraft carriers steam by while dodging luxury yachts, fishing boats, sailboats, and even kayaks.

November Sunset - Twelve Months at Cultus Bay (Not the solstice, but we not see the sun then.)

November Sunset – Twelve Months at Cultus Bay (Not the solstice, but we might not see the sun then.)

I particularly like sitting on my deck in the summer and watching the cruise ships drag race as they head out on their various itineraries. Then sometimes they return incredibly slowly in the hours before dawn, not wanting to dock until after sunrise. They don’t want to upset the cruise passengers’ sensibilities by waking them too early.

My view is a front row seat to international commerce. Almost all of our trade with China travels by ship. All of those containers stacked above and below deck were filled thousands of miles away weeks ago. The car carriers from Japan are the most futuristic. They are boxy, featureless, and clean. Every ship that comes in only spends about a day before it heads back out, hopefully equally full, but our balance of trade suggests there is a lot less tonnage returning.

It is easy to ignore the journeys of the things we buy. In 2012, more than one ship a week was lost. (In comparison, 1,768 Merchant Marine vessels were lost in World War II, which means the U.S. Merchant Marine suffered the highest rate of casualties of any service in World War II.) International commerce relies on dangerous ventures that costs lives. In peacetime, that risk is taken mostly so we can enjoy luxuries or cheaper products. It has been so since boats sailed beyond their harbors thousands of years ago.

I don’t take data, but it seems that traffic has picked up. I suppose from my vantage I could chronicle the traffic, but now that ships carry transponders and sufficient satellites are in orbit, web sites display the real time position and identification of most of the major traffic.

Transportation investments are a leading indicator. Businesses try to anticipate encouraging economies. If the product is on the shelf when you’ve heard it is in style, then weeks before it was crossing the ocean in a container – unless you’re like me most days (not for today’s picture) and you wear clothes made in America (Hello, Carhartt!). Really, bib overalls are quite comfortable, and are great for diving into chores or even just for cooking in the kitchen. There are so many handy pockets.

Automation and scale mean today’s thousand-foot long ships take less crew than my great-grandfather lived with. I follow trends, but underlying exotic technologies are complex international economies, there are people spending weeks at sea struggling through Nature’s wildest wilderness. The ships are bigger. Radar and radio are wonders. But the waves haven’t changed size. Icebergs don’t file travel plans. And anything that goes wrong, goes wrong in a place where you just can’t walk home.

Peter Lynch talks about investing in the boring, because it is overlooked and frequently undervalued. I don’t have discretionary cash (a massive understatement), but I thank the generations I know about and the ones whose stories never made it back to shore for all that they have done. Their careers were investments in us, their descendants. Thank you.

And yes, maybe I’ll try learning how to tie a bowline yet again, but if I end up at the hardware store I’m buying the longest zip ties I can find, and not as a fashion statement.

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