One of those random moments that I posted:

Pretending Not To Panic
Maybe the Amish were right.

It doesn’t sound so silly as I think about it. What other culture is better prepared to survive a digital singularity?

Here’s a post that will write itself as I think, which is another way of apologizing in advance for any lack of grammatical cohesion.

I’ve been in Amish country, but I don’t think I’ve met many, or any. I’ve been mistaken for Mennonite. Maybe it was the beard. Maybe it is my semi-minimalist way.

(Real life irony: As I am typing this I am using a Chromebook, across wi-fi, in a file stored on the cloud, in the waiting room of an auto mechanics’ shop. Thanks, Schwab. Hardly low-tech, eh? The car’s okay, in case you are curious.)

Ah, for the simple life. Which of course takes a lot of work.

Ah, for the AI life, at least as it is portrayed in the media. Complexity managed by artificial intelligence. Yet another labor-saving device, which off-loads some of the complexity to complex services.

Go back 100 years and there was a lot of labor to save. I recall a story about my grandmother mowing the grass with a pair of scissors because they couldn’t afford a mechanical lawnmower. Cars, central heating, running water, and eventually computers are things I wouldn’t want to give up.

But my car benefited from this morning’s maintenance. I should have the house’s heat pump’s filter cleaned. The water is fine, though I wonder about that drip. And I’d like to get a new computer before every operating system requires AI.

AI is running the economy. I hear that is a great enabler, but it doesn’t seem to be a simplifier.

AI is also running the stock market as various investors are spending money out of a fear of missing out. There’s also a fear of a bubble. There’s also a fear of a singularity. There are many ways to invest into that environment. Investing includes the possibility of loss, as well as the appeal of gain. And so swings the economy as industries try to keep up and to prepare for what comes next.

If the market crashes, most folks will be impacted. But will the Amish be affected as much?

I ask this as I consider how to invest and divest. I haven’t purposely invested in AI because I think it is fundamentally unknowable and could be over-hyped. I’ve seen my investments in biotech, sensors, lunar industries, solid batteries, and quantum computing fall during AI’s ascendance. That money had to come from somewhere, and it looks like investors took it from everything else. If anything, I am interested in buying more of my stocks, but I have house projects, healthcare, and general living to fund.

I also wonder if this is the time to invest in companies that could provide basic services that would be needed during a greater collapse. Hence, I start thinking about the Amish.

I use the word Amish as a catchphrase for a minimalist lifestyle that is based on basic needs. They may sell to the rest of the world. They may be impacted by a downturn. They also have the basic skills readily developed. They’re readier than most.

So I ask myself, are there companies who will ease any transition across the general population if a societal upset happens?

Some ideas: decentralized power, water, sanitation, food production, the basics of life. I’m seeing more ads for house batteries, particularly ones that are hooked up to solar power. Water is local, but filtration systems can be useful. Sanitation is local, and while there are variations on septic systems, they require more complexity and installation time that makes me hesitate using them for investments. Food production is mostly seeds, which I imagine is a low profit margin business. I suspect the basics of life are different than most of those basics listed in Amazon.

Hmm. The only readily recognizable basics come back to technology enablers. But which ones and would I be reacting to a future that won’t happen?

Pardon me as I pause and ponder. (Hey, this really is real-time thinking.) Sip that tea.

A friend has a plan, which they developed by need instead of necessity. They’re building their own house, because they couldn’t afford to buy one. They’re growing out their garden, because they can and because it is cheaper than buying at the grocery. They don’t have independent power, but I suspect they could if they had to. Rather than being constrained on a piece of land on the outskirts of town and partly up the side of a mountain, they have established a higher degree of self-sufficiency than anyone I know. Cool. People with higher incomes and in more urbanized environments are at greater risk, in my opinion.

Once upon a time, I owned stock in Real Goods Solar. They were ahead of their time. They were selling (almost?) everything you needed to live off-the-grid. It was decades ago. Solar wasn’t as efficient. The volumes were lower because off-the-grid was off-the-wall, not considered a viable option. They sold solar, but they also sold agricultural equipment and supplies, hydropower systems, etc. It was mail order. Then they went online. They went effectively bust. They’re kinda back again with the power component under Gigawatt (https://gigawattinc.com/). Something for me to research, hopefully with enough time and money.

Hand-churned butter. Mortice and tenon, nailless furniture. Homegrown food. Wood heat. Get out the needle and thread. I am impressed with the stereotypical minimalism of Amish life. I also know it isn’t easy, but if a digital singularity happens, if an AI comes to rule all, I think the minimalists that are in touch with Nature will be the least affected. I wonder if they’ll even notice, much.

Pondering. Hmm. I suspect Facebook’s Muse would be much easier to ignore.