Surprise A New Year

Posted on January 2, 2013 by Tom Trimbath

“Hello. This is the dentist’s office confirming your appointment for tomorrow morning.” Eep. I forgot. Good thing they called. Let’s see if I can get six month’s of flossing done in the next 24 hours. Where did the last six months go? We’re already in 2013. It caught me by surprise. My To-Do list swelled with the entry into January. I’m busier than ever; and as I lay in bed this morning I wondered how it would all work out. I probably wondered the same thing at the start of 2012. The year starts with uncertainty, hope, great potential, and encouraging momentum. I think that’s true for me, and the world. Nice to see we have something in common.

Even this post came by surprise. As a writer I find it important and powerful to maintain a publication schedule. The schedule is self-imposed, so I give myself some leeway; but I try not to abuse the privilege I’ve granted myself. I spent so much time working on my semi-annual portfolio review on Monday, that is seems like I just posted. Which is true. And yesterday was New Year’s Day, which was a holiday so it had that unique quality, and a work day as I continued creating a program plan for a virtual museum (History of Computing for Learning and Education) and posted about my book. I launched into today and didn’t even notice the day of the week because it felt like a Monday. Time passes and catches us by surprise.

I don’t make New Year’s resolutions. Thanks to lessons learned in karate, I take each day as an opportunity to improve over who I was the previous day. Yearly targets slide by without notice, but there are more opportunities for change.

There’s a lot of talk about change. Everything was going to change after the election. Everything was going to change at the Solstice, whether the Mayans were right or not. Everything changes with the new year; which many worried about considering the self-imposed deadline for averting the fiscal cliff. Humans concentrate on the dramatic. It is easier to respond to hurricanes and tornadoes than encroaching sea level rise. It is easier to make passionate proclamations about gun violence than it is to make diligent progress on mental health. It is easy to decide to change personality flaws at some day on the calendar than to constantly encourage the small reminders to be a little better every day. (Oy, there is so much to do there.)

Welcome to the first day of trading in the new year. Almost all of my stocks are up. All of them started the day with jumps; most of them opened with gaps up. Change may be gradual, except for those changes driven by humans. 2012, the Mayan apocalypse, and the fiscal cliff are behind us. It must be time to buy stock. OK. I might have some to sell. I might have to sell some.

And then, maybe I won’t have to sell any or much. There is great uncertainty here at the beginning of the new year. I’ve already traded emails with two people working to get me different jobs. I’ve already printed flyers for one class (Getting Started With Social Media, January 19th, Clinton, WA), and sent out a notice to drewslist. (Pardon me as I step away to refresh the craigslist listing. Ah, good; the listing for the Self-Publishing Workshop is active too.) I’ve also finished my daily upload to my new online photo gallery. (Fine Art America). It is barely past 10am, which leaves most of the day for my main task of creating that program plan I mentioned earlier. But first I will finish this post.
Feathered
There are discrete events. It is January, so I must figure out and pay my state business taxes, and pass along the appropriate reports. Bills work by regular cycles. The machinery and structure of our society attempt to set a rhythm that keeps us all in synch. The non-negotiable and slower timing of the seasons isn’t sufficient for today’s pace of life.

My hopes, optimism, and encouragements for 2013 come from the gradual, the innocuous, the quiet forces that create the breakthroughs that I can react to dramatically. Personally, I would like to experience the overnight success that comes from years of effort, the 10,000 Hour Rule I’ve mentioned in previous posts. Friends tell me that it’s going to happen, probably this year. Acquaintances have mentioned the same thing. This is encouraging. Recently I’ve had fun imaging myself sitting across the desk from Jon Stewart as he interviews me about my most recent book (Walking Thinking Drinking Across Scotland); and then getting the extended interview because of the rest of my story. Hey, it could happen, and it could happen this year. Word-of-mouth is powerful and people are talking about that and other books that I’ve written.

My global hopes, optimism, and encouragements for 2013 come from the gradual, the innocuous, the quiet forces that create the breakthroughs that we can react to dramatically. Most of those forces are not associated with governments or institutions. Individuals, especially as they connect up via social media, are changing lifestyles in ways that don’t show up in the mainstream media. News conferences aren’t called. Press releases aren’t dispatched. Instead, efforts go into getting work done. That has always been one of America’s strengths, liberty enabling action.

Bits of the new year have already caught me by surprise. More surprises are inevitable. I, and we, are due for a string of positive ones. Positive surprises will certainly make this a Happy New Year.

PS You can’t plan these things. I just got a call from a friend who wants my help on an entire line of products. Allow me to quote, “I’ll make you a millionaire babe. Stick with me babe.” – from someone with 18 years of show-biz talk. Now, wouldn’t that be a surprise? Looks like I have another (unpaid so far) item on my to-do list for today. Stay tuned.

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Semi Annual Exercise EOY 2012

Posted on December 31, 2012 by Tom Trimbath

Welcome back my friends that know I do this every six months. For everyone else, hi!

At the end of June and the end of December I follow the advice of Peter Lynch. If you can’t describe the companies you’re invested in, and why you bought those stocks, then ask yourself if you should keep them. I extend that a bit and use the exercise to track the changes in the companies, the stocks, and my interest over the course of years. I typically hold stocks for at least four years, so each company has my version of its history recorded in these exercises. The easiest way to search back is to check my previous blog posts. (I’ll get you started. Semi Annual Exercise Mid 2012)

This has been my toughest investing year. Small companies with great potential, and even revenues in some cases, have dropped and dropped again. The mainstay stock that was DNDN is now gone and I’ve had to nibble through underpriced stocks to pay basic bills out of a dwindling portfolio. My mortgage company is not pleased with the results. Details about the backup plans, job search, and ramifications are throughout my posts.

It’s already late enough on New Year’s Eve, so I’ll keep this short. Normally, I’d already be posting and heading off to socialize, but this is a working holiday season – and that’s good news. A couple of consultations, a major client task, and shepherding my new book (Walking Thinking Drinking Across Scotland) and my art exhibits means that I’ve been busier working on work than on my portfolio. Like I said, the portfolio is dwindling. Its position on the to-do list priority list dwindled too. (Amazing that all of that work is not enough to pay my bills  – yet.)

But, back to stocks.

Since my 2012 mid year review:

  • In the first half AMSC was down by about 50% – and in the second half dropped another 40%
  • In the first half DNDN was down by about 80% and in the second half was completely sold (No More Dendreon)
  • In the first half GERN was down by about 50% – and in the second half dropped another 20%
  • In the first half GGOX.OB became GIG and doubled! – and in the second half dropped 30% even as they made more money
  • In the first half MVIS was down almost 80% – and in the second half dropped another , what? They rose 50%? June divots happen.
  • In the first half RSOL was down almost 50%. – and in the second half dropped another 30% and was up by about 30% today. No, the 30%s don’t cancel.

Why?

  • AMSC has yet to recover from “The Sinovel Incident”, which sounds like a movie title. Maybe corporate spy movies should be the next big movie genre. AMSC also hasn’t announced stellar sales of, well, any of their products that impress.
  • GERN continues to guess wrong on coin flips. Key clinical trials continue to come up wrong. The great potential seems to be slipping away. One substantial success could make all of the difference; but in the meantime, they have to continue spending money that they get through borrowing, dilution, or fees.
  • GIG continues to grow revenues, staying just below profitability. But they’re growing! But the stock is down. Rational markets, ha!
  • MVIS is up? I had to double check. That’s not its historical trend. Ah. My mid-year data point was in a price divot. Look back to last year and the market cap is effectively flat.
  • RSOL is probably down because sales are down and that may be because worries are up. Investors are probably pinning solar power plays to politics and subsidies rather than the long term and growing trend in the need for renewable energy sources.

Regardless of the news and my situation, I am a long term optimist. I’m not quite sure how I am going to get through my current situation, but I know that the best way to get through anything is to not stop in the middle of it. Some of my faith and confidence in investing has been shaken, but I also know that such a series of unfortunate coin flips can as equally likely be followed by more than enough fortunate tosses. That would bring back my faith in markets, or at least statistics and the return to the mean.

Here’s the End Of 2012 edition of my semi-annual stock portfolio exercise. It is a long list of links to Investor Village, The Motley Fool, and Silicon Investor because I think the discussion should happen in a broad forum. Feel free to comment here, but also feel free to post links out to other sites as well. One of the greatest resources individual investors have is other individual investors. Our shared voices can be more powerful than any official financial institution.

Investor Village
AMSC
GERN
GIG
MVIS
RSOL

The Motley Fool
AMSC
GERN
MVIS
RSOL
Economy and Markets

Silicon Investor
AMSC
GERN
GIG
MVIS

Happy New Year!

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Pivotal Times

Posted on December 29, 2012 by Tom Trimbath

It was the best of years. It was the worst of years. How can anyone say that? The Top Ten lists are out, and the optimist in me keeps saying, “But, wait. So many things are changing that maybe something incredibly marvelous will happen.” We still have a couple of days left. Anything could happen.  For me, the ending and the of beginning of the year is on the Winter Solstice, but almost everyone else fixes that date at 12/31. Regardless of the holidays or the choice of the year’s beginning, these last few weeks have felt different, and I get the impression from facebook feeds that I’m not the only one noticing and wondering. Things are pivoting.

There’s good news since Wednesday’s post about my job search.
I enjoyed the job interview at the bank on Thursday. I hope they enjoyed it too. They sounded encouraging. That’s good. In so many things corporate though, processes must be followed and it will be weeks before I hear more. The possibility of having a car-less commute and getting to work on the island definitely has an appeal, and the job is in downtown Langley. I’ve lived in downtown Langley. Downtown Langley has almost everything people need.

(Real time interruption: The mortgage company called as usual. Their record is four calls in one day. Without a doubt, there are days when I receive more calls from the mortgage company than I do from friends, family, business, and telemarketers combined. And for a first, and I guess a sign of a pivot in our relationship, they had someone drive an hour and a half to verify that I am still in the house. They certainly are spending a lot of money trying to get money from me. As I’ve told them, when I have sufficient funds, I’ll deliver them. What else can I do? Sell the house? Oh yeah, it is for sale, and has been for months. Stay tuned.)
Home For Sale
Where was I? Oh yeah, downtown Langley, a downtown small enough to fit inside one of the mainland shopping malls. But, it is much more pleasant and quieter. Working there has significant advantages and would be a significant change from working from home. Working in the bank would be working with the community. I like it!

Another bit of good news involves me working from home, but in a different sense. I’m actually getting paid. (Though not enough to appease the mortgage company.) Entrepreneurs are familiar with the scenario. Work hard until you get paid. We get to set our own hours, which are usually too long; and work on whatever we want, without knowing if any of it will succeed. Eventually something clicks. Whether because of my efforts or not, I’ve been hired as a contractor to produce a program plan for an online museum that is under construction. Working with the History of Computing for Learning and Education (HCLE) means working at something I enjoy, with people I know, about a topic I’ve lived. (That makes me sound old, and within the world of computers, maybe I am.) The goal of the museum is to be an education and research resource, as well as being entertaining for regular visitors. The pivotal decades of the 1970’s through the 1990’s changed many aspects of education: what was taught, who learned it, and how it was taught. The people that lived that era and defined those trends will get the opportunity to have their experiences and insights recorded and made available to researchers and the inquisitive. How did we get to where we are now? As a writer, I also know there will be stories in there. Intriguing.

Extend that work a bit and maybe I’ll be profitably compensated for ongoing efforts. I’d have a job with a virtual commute.

More good news? Sure! One friend continues to exert herculean efforts at getting my resume ready and then shepherding my application through her company. That job would pay the most, have the longest commute, but the work wouldn’t be much of a stretch. I’ve never had the title Program Manager, but I’ve managed programs and projects that exceed the yearly revenues of some small companies. It’s all about the relationships with the people and getting the job done. Maybe you remember my motto, “My passion is for people and ideas.” Helping people act on their ideas, while maybe throwing in some of my own, is fascinating, and can be fun. I’ve done it before, but the pivotal aspect would be the culture shift from the quiet island to the frantic cubicles. It can be done, again!

Other major pivots in my life:

  • In 2012, I finished the five year photo essay of Whidbey Island. February Reflects FebruaryI caught my breath a bit, and now step into 2013 when the task is the exhibiting, sales, and distribution of the work. I’ve scheduled a few events, and have many more to add to the calendar. Want to add me to your list? I’m also porting my photos over to another online gallery. (The previous gallery had nice traffic, but too many people were confused by the shopping process. That’s rather key to the whole idea.)
  • In 2012, I published Walking Thinking Drinking Across Scotland (available on kindle). I caught my breath a bit, and now step into – hey, this sounds familiar. I’m scheduling events based on those words and photos as well. “One man’s search for joy, and at least his evening Guinness.”Walking Thinking Drinking Across Scotland
  • There are changes for my classes in 2013. The Madrona self-publishing workshops continue, but with a few tweaks. I’ve reformatted my social media workshops into a series of classes on the third Saturday of every month. One bite at a time, instead of everything in  a day. So, the self-publishing classes work better as weekend-long intensives, and the Social Media intensives were too intense so I’ve eased them back into a simpler format.
  • The biggest pivot may be the slowest, as if it embodies the most inertia and will effect the greatest change. Regardless of whether I’ve been paid or not, I have developed some level of recognition for my skills, talents, enthusiasm, energy, and even some insights. I’m being recognized as a consultant worth referring people to. Glad to be of service. According to Klout, one measure of a person’s impact at least via social media, I’m known for my perspectives on personal finance, Scotland, and self-publishing. I’ve even seen significant traffic from nasdaq.com. Investors are finding me there when they are looking for information or commentary about particular stocks. MVIS is popular, despite its price and performance. From such goodwill, marvelous things can happen.

Pivots outside of my control:

  • Have you heard about the fiscal cliff? There’s news that will happen in the next few days, whichever way it goes.
  • Have you heard that the estimates for climate change, that some debunked as extremist, were actually conservative and that we’re warming faster than we predicted? Talk to folks with sea level housing. The debate isn’t academic. Sandbags happen.
  • The list of major shifts is longer than a post. You’re welcome to go back and visit my post called, “Everything Changes” for a short list with a bit more detail. The things on the list are closer by the number of days since I published that bit of writing.

Many people seek stability. If they have it, they hang on tight, sometimes to their detriment. They may pivot around a point, but they don’t move; and when they do, the change is more dramatic. I expected more stability through the diversity in my life and efforts, and found I had painfully less. Pivotal change and motion are necessary if I am going to live long and prosper. Standing still is not a permanent option.  And change is happening. I don’t know where it’s heading, how long it’s going to take, or what it will be like along the way, but I know I must embrace change. Change has always been the only constant. Pivot to a new direction and go. Now’s the time.

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My Jobs Report Month 16

Posted on December 26, 2012 by Tom Trimbath

I wondered how this timing would feel. Christmas was the 16 month anniversary of my job search. (Step back through the months by following the earlier posts.) The short version: No job yet. The longer version: There are some intriguing possibilities, but that’s been the case before too. The even longer version: Well, that’s why I blog; otherwise my 500+ friends on facebook and my almost 300 connections on LinkedIn would only have to check my profile to see if anything has changed. We humans don’t track stories that way.

Christmas Day was fine. There was no big drama fest. I was impacted more by a persistent cold than by my financial net worth. I’d planned a very small event, maybe with a friend or two, but my contagion was a good reason to make it a solo event. There weren’t many gifts, so those I received stood out more than usual; and just like back at Thanksgiving, for me the day was a great excuse to play in the kitchen.

  • Ham(tradition!)
  • Yams (they’re orange and rhyme with ham)
  • Baked beans (comfort food is comforting)
  • Fried/sauteed brussel sprouts (there must be a nod towards green)
  • Cornbread (gluten-free of course)
  • Squashed Pear Pie (made like pumpkin with pears chopped and mixed in, and baked in the squash shell)
  • Wine (2002 Trimbach Gewurtztraminer as I pull from my old wines, this one making me wonder if there’s a family tie)
  • Tea (plenty of fluids, eh?)

I’ve got leftovers for weeks.

Squashed Pear Pie
As for jobs, the days before Christmas were more intriguing.

Earlier in the month I was celebrating one of those sole-proprietor moments – depositing money. For a number of reasons, mostly because I like people, I make the deposits with the teller. They know me. We have a good time visiting. It was a busy day, but quiet enough that I overheard a dude talking to the bank manager. The dude was slouched in the visitor’s chair looking very relaxed. He was there for an interview, but he really didn’t want the job. He just had to apply and show up so he could maintain his unemployment benefits. Of course, there was more, but that’s the part I heard. Maybe he said it as a joke. I don’t know. I finished my business and departed.

A week or so ago I walked back in to make another deposit. (Consulting with artists and entrepreneurs was better than expected in December.) I was the only customer, but the crew was busy. There’s a lot of work to do even without customers walking into the bank. They are understaffed and told me about it. Over the months I’ve applied for such jobs, but suspected the resume bots were throwing out my applications because the certifications were more important than the skills. I had nothing to lose, so I walked over to the manager and asked him about how I could help. He listened to my verbal resume, and told me to apply again, and email him as I did so. That way he could make sure my application made it to his desk. Merry Christmas. The interview is tomorrow. Stay tuned.

The day before Christmas held another event. A friend wanted some enthusiasm for her project, so she called me for some motivation. Sure, I can do that. I’m a fan of her project. Amidst that phone call we talked about another of her projects that is languishing for a variety of reasons. Then she realized that project had enough funds to hire me to put together the larger plan and write the appropriate grants that could fund the grand plan. But first I have to write a proposal. If that course is successful, I might play a role that would pay me a full time wage while working from home on a project that uses and requires decades of experience with computers and computing. After I type this post, I’ve got to write a proposal for how I’ll write a proposal. Stay tuned.

While all of that is going on, another friend and fellow job searcher succeeded and became a well-paid employee of a major corporation. She knows me and the job, and knows that I have the skills they need. For her first few hectic weeks, we’ve played telephone and email tag as she coaches the reformatting of my resume to match her company’s style. I’m waiting for a phone call from her as I type. She found a job that she thinks I’m right for. Now we have to step through all of the official and unofficial steps in the employee referral process. Stay tuned.

Sixteen months of looking. Typing that made me pause. If I’d spent all of that time in school I’d be most of the way to an associate’s degree, or would have already completed the certification process for a variety of skills. I’ve got plenty of experience. I just didn’t get the official titles and certificates along the way. I was more interested in getting the job done than in padding my resume. Maybe focusing on the work instead of the honors was one of my luxuries I enjoyed during my temporary early semi-retirement. In any case, I launched into my job search thinking it would take three to six months, not sixteen. The optimist in me continually expects the good news to be imminent. Maybe now it will come to fruition.

These three intriguing possibilities have a couple of things in common: each involves a personal connection, and each has some way of working around the resume process. And of course, nothing is guaranteed. And of course, the world provides unimaginable positive surprises.

So, I sit here, finishing this post, waiting for the phone to ring and also hesitant if it does. The mortgage company continues their barrage and I don’t have caller ID.

I’m looking forward to 2013, partly because another aspect of my life provided a wonderful encouragement. I got into a conversation with one of the local librarians about carrying my most recent ebook (Walking Thinking Drinking Across Scotland). By the end of the conversation she’d booked me for talks on three separate subjects (Scotland, photos of Whidbey, and Social Media). She held herself back with a laugh and said something like, “It looks like 2013 will be the Year of Tom Trimbath.” That has stayed with me since.

I don’t know what’s going to happen. Maybe many things will happen simultaneously, and I’ll have to pick from and manage many good possibilities. Okay, I’m envisioning myself sitting across the desk from Jon Stewart as we tape my interview on The Daily Show. One thing is for sure. However this works out, I definitely have a story to tell.

Stay tuned.

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Crossover Into A New World

Posted on December 22, 2012 by Tom Trimbath

We’ve reached the end of the stone calendar. Time to reset the Mayan clock back to zero. Considering everything I’ve been going through, waking up to a brand new world is appealing. Let me check; yep, looks about the same. But, I know things are changing. There’s a mathematics term commonly used in various arenas: crossover. When two lines or trends intersect, they’ve crossed over each other. That point shows up well on a graph, but it may be hard to discern in a life. So, maybe we are in a brand new world, but we just can’t tell.

To my engineering colleagues, please pardon this simplification. Crossover is a simple thing. Think of a rocket trying to liftoff. The rocket has to produce more thrust than the rocket’s weight. But the rocket doesn’t start at full thrust, sometimes it has to build up a bit. At the same time, the rocket’s weight is dropping because it’s burning its own fuel. At some point, at the crossover point, the thrust has increased and the weight has decreased and they balance. The rocket doesn’t begin to liftoff until after the crossover point. (Actually it’s held back a bit longer for stability, and the thrust curve is a bit different, but hey, I wanted to use a straightforward picture.)

People familiar with the Financial Integrity Nine Step Program know of a different crossover point (Step 8). Crossover happens when a person’s passive secure income exceeds their living expenses. Ideally, the income grows faster than expenses and the rest of life can be spent with enough and maybe more than enough. In the best scenarios, income increases and expenses drop. I’ve seen it happen because when there is sufficient surplus cash, it is possible to buy better solutions. It is possible to spend more up front to save more later. Off-the-grid houses are an excellent example. They may cost more to build, but eventually they pay for themselves and leave a homeowner with no utility bills.

Assumptions must be made. The rocket scientists assume the rocket was built correctly, that the fuel is good, and that the engine doesn’t fail. My one rocket launch blew up after it left the pad. Oops. (Details unavailable.) My personal experience with my financial crossover point was based on a relaxation of the “secure” part of the “passive” income. I thought diversification and backup plans would suffice, but it doesn’t feel that way right now. I know others who have reached Financial Independence crossover point (FI crossover), only to see other assumptions fail. Expenses can rise. Health care costs are hard to predict. Relationships dramatically change living expenses. I witnessed that through my divorce. What was enough for a couple to be retired may not be enough for two single people. Of course, the flip side can happen, too. Two struggling single people can drop their living expenses by becoming a couple. Two incomes that weren’t enough, may be more than enough together.

Rockets succeed and rockets fail. Financial plans succeed and financial plans fail. We’re all just making the best guesses we can with what we’ve got.

At the moment of the crossover point, there is little confidence. Eagerness and anxiety are in balance as well. Optimism and pessimism can see both futures. Does the rocket leave the Earth or does it make a big hole in it? Is it really possible to retire and life the life I want, or have I missed something, or will I run into some bad luck? At the crossover point, there’s no way to know. At that point, the rocket is still on the ground and the income is barely paying the expenses.

In an astronomical sense, the world reached a crossover point yesterday. It’s a yearly event, so it is cyclical and not exactly the same, but it is familiar. The days in the northern hemisphere have begun to lengthen again. The sun has set as far to the south as it will for a while. We know the change has happened, but it is difficult to witness. The solstices are the slowest changes in the yearly cycle. Throughout the rest of the year, the change in a day’s length is more rapid. The day actually changes the quickest at the equinoxes. At the crossover, we rely on experience and trust.

November Sunset - Twelve Months at Cultus Bay (Not the solstice, but we not see the sun then.)

November Sunset – Twelve Months at Cultus Bay (Not the solstice, but we not see the sun then.)

I think we are reaching numerous crossover points within society, civilization, and the environment. Some see the changes coming, just like those financial independent folks that chart their money on their Big Wall Chart. Many are in denial because the changes aren’t dramatic enough to readily witness; or, even if they witness a change, it can be hard to believe it comes from this source or that. One of the appealing things about rockets is that the difference between one side of the crossover point and the other is definitely dramatic and unequivocal. We’re entering a new world. We just can’t tell what it is from where we are.

I know I am entering a new world. My income and expenses are driven by multiple crossover possibilities.

My investment income dramatically fell. That’s why I am temporarily not making mortgage payments. Yet, I am an optimist and realize the possibility that those stocks have bottomed and may recover. My business income is rising quickly, which is handy because the business expenses have risen too; but, next year I might actually make a profit if this trend continues. That would be a crossover point worth celebrating. My consulting business is improving. I’ve even been approved as a personal finance expert over at expertbooth.com. (Online sessions at $1/minute.) Consulting, writing, speaking, and art sales all greatly benefit from word-of-mouth referrals. My books are becoming better known. My speaking engagements are speaking for themselves are hosts talk to hosts. And my art is well enough known on Whidbey that many identify me as “that photographer”. The Ten Thousand Hour Rule is basically a crossover point where accumulated effort and momentum finally reach self-sustaining levels and an overnight success is born – after a 10,000 hour gestation. I’ve definitely been working long enough and hard enough, and have established enough art inventory. Ideally, that would become my (relatively) passive income.

My expenses continue to diminish. Partly that is external, but the forced financial exercise has awakened a personal realization of how little is required for me to enjoy my life. I’ve scaled back numerous times before; and here I go again, finding a lifestyle that is more enjoyable and that costs even less.

Dropping my expenses means I’ve dropped my crossover point. Every extra bit of income becomes that much more powerful. The difference between one side of my personal finance crossover point and the other will be that much more dramatic.

  • If you want to learn how to figure out your personal finance crossover point, go to financialintegrity.org, and remember that is step 8. There may be some homework involved.
  • If you want to learn how to figure out various crossover points related to rocket science, whew, well, there will be lots of home work involved.
  • If you want to learn the crossover points within society, civilization, and the environment, ah, well, there’s the entire world wide web.
  • I didn’t mention it above, but some of the most significant crossover points are related to the possible Digital Singularity, that I’ve written about before.
  • If you want to help me with my crossover points, spread the word, post reviews, buy some art, call me to consult about finance, or social media, or self-publishing, or karate, or . . .

We’re crossing over to a new world, and the only thing we can be certain of is that it won’t be like the world we knew. Stay tuned.

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Christmas Wishes 2012

Posted on December 19, 2012 by Tom Trimbath

And what do you want for Christmas? How many kids enjoy the boxes more than the presents? I’m the sort that likes the simple. Maybe that’s because I’ve never received the resort vacations, a new car with a big red bow on top, or jaw-dropping electronics (that sounds bionic, electronics designed to move my jaw). But, maybe one of the benefits of practiced frugality is an appreciation for what brings lasting joy to my core.

Allow me to make it clear; resort vacations, new cars, and marvelously fast computers are appreciated. Hello Santa; don’t worry if they won’t fit in my stocking. I’d probably get some of that for myself when I win the lottery. Though even there, I know I’d prefer weeks in a ski cabin to weeks at a resort. I’d rather pay someone to fix my Jeep Cherokee Classic, because they don’t make them anymore and I haven’t found a better replacement. As for the screaming fast computer, yeah, I’d probably get that.

Thinking back over more than five decades of Christmases my most memorable gifts were a coffee mug, the complete set of Harry Potter DVDs, my first 24 inch tall bicycle, a great pair of wool socks, a Nerf ball, . . . A longer reflection may reveal gifts that were more appreciated, but I can only write about what was memorable enough to remember. How many of us have to keep lists each year to make sure we remember what to thank people for, and to make sure we don’t get it for them as if it was a re-gifting? What gifts do you remember? Ah, but there was that commissioned sculpture of my spirit guide – and what else that was extraordinary?

By the way, the Nerf ball was fun, and I didn’t even receive it. I gave it to my dad. My mom was surprised and a bit disappointed that I’d gotten my dad such a cheap gift. What can you do with a Nerf ball? He promptly smiled and bounced it off my head. I picked it up and bounced it off his. We laughed. She just shook her head.

Since I became single again, each year I buy myself a stocking full of little gifts, set it aside long enough to forget what’s in there, and then give them to myself on Christmas morning. This season has gone by so quickly, and money has been so tight that I haven’t done that yet. Maybe I can do that today and see if I can quickly forget what I did.

My internal wish list:

  • A brick of AA batteries, because I like the indulgence of using a cordless mouse and a decoration that uses a set of LED lights.
  • A clutch of candles, the emergency kind, because I like candle light and don’t need fancy shapes, decorations, or scents (especially with my sense of smell).
  • A pound of healthy bacon, and yes it does exist – at least in a relative sense.
  • Smoked salmon, local, shrink wrapped dry instead of the oily stuff in the opaque envelopes or in the cans. They’re good too, but I have preferences.
  • Maple syrup, an excuse for waffles and butter.
  • Coconut oil, for so many uses.
  • Really long zip ties, because I am not the best at tying knots.
  • Oo, and maybe some retractable pens.

What I’ll probably buy myself in addition to some of the things listed above:

  • A new pair of work overalls. My two favorite attires: shorts or overalls: loungeware that I can’t have to treat carefully.
  • Usually a new pair of work gloves, because they rarely last a year, but I have so many with not too many holes that I’ll get by.
  • One boxed set of movies, maybe the Librarian series, or Indiana Jones, or Men In Black, or ?

My business appreciates customers, buyers, clients, and patrons. Thanks for dropping by.

December's Coat

My artistic side appreciates good reviews posted online, and knowing people enjoy what I’ve created. I’m so glad when art finds a good home.

Aside from all of that, I value emotions and feelings more than things: ambience, ease, occasional indulgence, joy, relaxation, manifestation, feelings that are part of a life lived long and prosperously. My favorite things enable a more pleasant life, but they are the conduit, not the goal.

This year a few things come to mind that never did before; but, the list comes down to the simple basic of having enough money for that life lived long and prosperously. It truly would be a joy and a major relief to get out of debt and return to financial prosperity. It can happen. Santa has delivered more incredible things before.

What we can give each other costs little and is most valuable. We can give each other to each other. Visits, calls, hugs, smiles, open ears, shoulders to lean on, dancing, playing and generally socializing can’t be bought – well, maybe they can hired, but the freely given and received are the best. Some would rather be surrounded by fancy and expensive things, even if they are isolated from everyone. I prefer to be surrounded and experiencing the emotions and feelings that make living wonderful and memorable.

Who knows? This year everything may change. If nothing else, marijuana is now legal to possess in Washington State. We can’t buy it or grow it, but I haven’t seen a restriction on giving it. What a lovely one ounce wreath. Thank you. Ho, Ho.

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Light One Candle

Posted on December 15, 2012 by Tom Trimbath

Do you think that sounds trite? Has the concept of lighting one candle become cliche? I’ve tried it. It works. I started this morning by reading a post from a friend: 5 Minutes of Love. It is an even simpler idea, and doesn’t even take a match.

Within the world of blogging, I’ve learned that most posts are read days, or even months, after they’re posted. So, I won’t require latecomers to scroll back through volumes of news items to recall what happened this week in America, China, and probably other less well-publicized places. The truth of the world is that there’s always been recent sad news. That’s why I like Sue’s idea. Rather than only focus on the necessary expression of grief, she asks everyone to take 5 minutes concentrating on love of the world. Simple. Positive. And potentially accumulative to world-changing proportions.

If you stop reading now to practice 5 minutes of love, I won’t mind. I’ll be pleased.

I was raised to be proper and stoic. That can be valuable in difficult times. As one friend described me, it allows me to be diplomatic and graceful under pressure. She obviously wasn’t here when I wast trying to have a conversation with my mortgage company. It took decades of introspection, and a few months of counseling, to begin to uncover the emotions that lived behind that demeanor. Life is different now. I wonder how my friends from my old life will react to the new me. Luckily, the diplomacy and demeanor remain, but now I am more willing to set them aside to be passionate and exuberant.

But there is much work to be done. Another friend has even incorporated the following phrase into his artwork, “Here is a test to find whether your mission on Earth is finished: If you are alive, it isn’t.” His poster is on my kitchen wall as a reminder of that and many other bits of insight and wisdom. (Hey Windwalker, got a link to your poster? Put it in the comments section.)

Life on Whidbey is life in a small community. To yet again quote from someone else, in this case one of my favorite authors; “Shared pain is lessened; shared joy is increased . . .” – Spider Robinson. While I am more emotionally open than ever, I can be struck speechless at the news of a friend’s loss. It is frustrating, but rather than live within the frustration I decided to take a small action. I lit a candle.

One candle

Lighting a candle is a simple act. Strike a match, light the wick, and create enough light to, well, not to do much really. Can you imagine living by candlelight? It is romantic, but candlelight is hard to use for reading or working.

Facebook is the new news ticker. Calls for support show up there before any phone tree goes into action. A while ago while sitting at my computer, I learned about the death of a friend’s child. I didn’t know what to say. I didn’t know what to write. I choked up but nothing came out. I lit a candle.

Light a candle. And for a few moments, 5 minutes sound about right, feel. Feel that emotion I want spread out into the world. I don’t know if it works like the power of prayer, or if I just do it to make myself feel better; but, I know that my Self feels better afterwards. And I know that when I meet my friend in the grocery store or on the sidewalk, I’m more likely to hug a bit tighter and longer if that’s what they need and want. No words required.

This blog is about money and life. Regular readers know the story so far. As money has temporarily diminished, a lot of what had been filling my life has sloughed away. I’ve been frugal for decades, and embraced voluntary simplicity and simple living, and have now experienced forced simplicity and essential living. I’ve known, and now lived the realization that happiness doesn’t require money. As I learned on my walk across Scotland, and subsequently wrote about in my book, “Every moment contains every emotion. Choose.”

It doesn’t take much to be happy. Paying all of my bills in a way that I can sustain indefinitely, would ease the vast majority of my stress. But, aside from those money issues, I’ve found that simple things like Sue suggests, simple things like lighting one candle or enjoying a meal at home with a friend, can be as marvelous regardless of my financial net worth.

There are times when I go out into the darkness and curse (well, shout really strong language) at the universe. I missed a great chance for it the last two nights. (Presents must be shipped. Pig roasts must be attended. With joy in both cases.) Cultus Bay, the bit of the Salish Sea at the edge of my neighborhood, empties about a mile of tide flats at low tide. In December that happens near midnight for a few nights. December also means storms. I’ve wandered out there through tide puddles, into the wind and rain, in the cold, and had my Lieutenant Dan moments. (Watch Forrest Gump.)

I’ve cursed the darkness. I’ve asked uncountable variations of; “Why?” I welcome the release, and ask the wind to scatter and disperse the chaos. I apologize to the city of Edmonds on the far shore for any of it that may upset them. My muscles welcome the release, but I rarely find answers.

And then I walk home, change into warm and dry clothes, and usually light a candle. And then I relax.

From experience I can tell you that it really is better to light one candle than to curse the darkness.

With that in mind, and with one candle already lit on the hearth, I think I’ll light a candle here where I type, and pause, and try 5 Minutes of Love. But first I’ll post.

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Ending Or Beginning

Posted on December 12, 2012 by Tom Trimbath

It’s not over yet! Please, could the media hold off on the best and worst of 2012? The year isn’t over yet. There’s such a rush to be the first to critique and review anything that many don’t wait to see how things end. How many tweet from a movie before it’s over? Though of course, for some, we better talk about it now because the Mayans may have said that there will be no world left after 12/21/12. For others of a different philosophy, today is a beginning because of the auspicious date 12/12/12. A friend and I compared her medical condition and my financial situation and agreed that beginnings and endings aren’t as important as what’s happening now.

What’s happening now is that I am sitting in a comfy chair, warm and dry with a cup of tea beside me, typing this post from the second floor of the Cash Store in Bayview because one of the businesses here, Fine Balance Imaging, is hosting a Christmas art show for some of their artist clients, like me. I get to sit here surrounded by art and decorations, and visit with folks that want to buy my photos or books. I’d do something similar even if my net worth was hundreds of thousands more than it is today. (Check my blog posts from Bailey’s Corner.) Friends work here. It’s a pleasant atmosphere. I could always ask for more, and do, but I also appreciate what I’ve got.

Soft Rocks - Twelve Months at Cultus Bay

My friend has a worrisome condition, but she dresses in style, keeps a sense of humor, and continues on with life. Her experience also gives her an extra emphasis on empathy, because it is possible that every smiling face has some internal struggle that could use some support.

(Ah, someone paused, and then picked up, Dream. Invest. Live. I said hello. They walked away. Maybe I spooked them.)

Dream. Invest. Live.

Are the Mayans right that the world will end on 12/21/12? Pick your version of an ending and you could be right. A few years ago, another friend had a premonition that they would die within months. They were wrong and right. They lived, but an old way of life died. Their premonition was an ending and a beginning.

There are endings that are final for our physical existence: Asteroid strikes (did you read about the three-mile wide asteroid that passed us yesterday? Ah, but we knew about that one for years and were sure it would miss. So, how about the ~120 foot one discovered on Sunday that passed by less than 250,000 miles. Surprise!), Catastrophic solar magnetic storms that blast away the Earth’s protective magnetosphere (and doesn’t magnetosphere sound like some superhero invention?), or Universal changes in the laws of physics (some implications of quantum physics maybe, could, but probably won’t, result in atoms dissolving and – nah.).

The best evidence I have for 12/12/12 being an ending and a beginning has been personal experience. Lots of friends are sharing revelatory dreams from last night. I had a few. (I wish you could see the sailboat. I think it would require a Mega-Millions jackpot. Nice. But, what was more fascinating was where it was headed. That may be another post.) There is particular emphasis on 12:12:12 on 12/12/12, which brings to mind the notion that, with forty different time zones, there are forty moments when the ending and beginning have transpired. (There may be a caveat as some of those time zones may not use the same calendar. Hebrew 5773, Islamic 1433?, Chinese 4710. I guess we could check the historical records to see if their 12/12/12 dates were auspicious for them.)

I think it is easier to make the case that the world’s transition has been happening for a while. There probably won’t be a split-second moment that defines the turn. Many things are turning and changing. Upheavals are happening in finance, politics, culture, relationships, environment, technology, and undoubtedly in ways we won’t recognize until we can look back from far enough away. As a species, we are less than stellar at predicting the future.

As a species, we are also poor at predicting what’s good and bad. Cars are great! They mean less animal abuse and an improvement in public health because there’s no manure in the street. Computers will never be small, cheap, or useful enough for anything besides major corporations and governments. (Insert minority here) can never become part of the mainstream society because they just don’t understand how things really work.

We are, however, good at recognizing and adapting to change. Each adaptation begins with a few that see a new path. The rest may follow willingly. Many times with a struggle. Independent thought and debate is a valuable part of the process.

(Part of my process: Someone downstairs is ordering lunch over their cell phone. They had to raise their voice to order: Ranch, onion, with a little cheese on top, and with tomato bisque. But AT&T knows best about phones. They should be made from Bakelite, rented from the company, and wired to the wall. Oops. Change happened for good or whatever.)

Regular readers know that I am in the midst of an amazing change. It hasn’t been easy, and I don’t know where I’m going; but, I know that I’ve gained some precious insights along the way. Appreciate now. Be flexible. Be willing to let go to get something better back. Be aware.

A few days ago I was doing business with a local business. Off in the manager’s corner a job interview was underway. The interviewee was making an obligatory visit so he could maintain his unemployment benefits. I went back there today and introduced myself. They know me, and when the job is re-posted they’ll contact me and make sure my resume and application aren’t blocked by the resume bots. Maybe my job search could end and a new life begin.

(Stay tuned. There’s more than one champion at work, and there are probably ones I’m not aware of. )

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Transition Assistance

Posted on December 8, 2012 by Tom Trimbath

It is a drumming rain this morning. Puget Sound weather was known for persistent drizzle with occasional sun breaks. It was good weather for rainbows. Lately, I’ve noticed a change. The environment is getting wetter, windier, and wilder. The meteorologists have noticed a change too. Their climate models have fallen out of their old patterns. They don’t know what’s coming next. I hope we get to keep our rainbows. I don’t know what’s coming next either; but of course, that’s the way most of my life is right now. Transition is upon me, and I don’t know where it’s taking me. With logic, I’ll sort out as much as I can. With luck, there will be help along the way. With wisdom, there will be pieces that just have to go with the flow.

The logical parts of my life are so engrained by upbringing and training that I frequently forget to mention them. Engineering teaches a mindset and philosophy as much as it teaches math and science. Break a big problem down into little choices and daunting tasks become doable. The steps in Joe Dominguez’s Nine Step Program for financial integrity (see New Road Map’s web site, or check out Your Money Or Your Life for details) provide tools to sort through choices that balance needs and wants, money and life. The resulting frugality means my terrible financial situation is made more manageable by focusing on my values. Eating out is too expensive, but I prefer my own cooking anyway.

Logically, I also know that I can’t do everything myself. One of the benefits of living on Whidbey, or any small yet caring community, is that support is available. On Monday, I’ll call up Hearts and Hammers, a local home repair program run by volunteers. My house has a window frame that requires repair beyond my skills and current finances. It is the south window, the one that catches the storms. Maybe they can help. I look forward to helping them after my finances recover.

More formal help has been harder to find. Eighteen years of working at Boeing and working at my own business for fourteen years mean zero unemployment benefits. The Boeing work isn’t recent enough, and my business has never made enough to pay me or the State unemployment fund.

Luckily, help arrives from unexpected directions. Yesterday started with a surprise email and call from an editor compiling an anthology of stories of men in middle-aged transition. A friend and client referred me to her because of my newest book, Walking Thinking Drinking Across Scotland. Within an hour she had an excerpt, two photos, my bio, and my portrait for a package she was sending out by the end of the weekend. A tweak or two later and more of my writing and message are ready to go out into the world along yet another avenue. (I enjoyed her description of my writing style. Evidently, I write about emotional awareness and spirituality as if I was speaking from the pub instead of the pulpit.)

A while later, Sandra Rodman of Right Brain Aerobics called to collaborate on a corporate consulting tools and subsequent e-book, and a think tank and newsletter. We even touched on a business that may make money by paying people to meditate. Sandra is helping corporations that are facing transitions. Old business models and even recently shifted paradigms are already out of date and are being replaced. She intrigued me with an interesting observation. The very people who are best at guiding others through transition are the ones who are already there, but being in the midst of this transition isn’t easy. Most of these pioneers and scouts, the two of us included, knew we had to set off into a tumultuous unknown. We’ll play a valuable role, but we must pass through hard times so we can empathize with those who follow.

As the day closed on dinner I got phone call from a friend who is using one of the most powerful hiring tools, personal help from the inside. I’m sure most companies have referral programs, but they are easy for the folks inside to forget about amidst their daily tasks lists. She, however, has gone through three years of even harder times than mine. One of the first things she did when she got her job was to reach out to people like me who she is eager to endorse for positions in her company. I salute one of my champions. If it works, you’ll read about it here, and I’ll reach out as she is doing.

Those last two friends together convinced me to rephrase one aspect of my consulting services. Yes, I consult entrepreneurs and artists, but I also consult with people in transition. A person choosing to change or being required to change can use some help, and it is best to get that help from someone who has experienced change. Let’s see. I’ve gone from engineer to voluntarily frugal to private karate instructor to millionaire to writer to photographer to teacher to speaker to consultant to necessarily frugal to . . .  ?

DSC_5375

Luck arrives too. I’ve noticed people say things like, “You could use some luck.”, “Your luck will come.” Lately, I’ve been asking them to repeat it and include the word, “good”. Considering the incredible string of not-so-good luck that I’ve had for the last two years, I think the rephrasing is worth a try.

Good luck dropped by when I told another friend about the referral. It turns out that yet another friend has an empty house within walking distance of that potential job, and it is all in an old, familiar neighborhood. It isn’t on Whidbey, but that job and that house, and that commute, and that salary would mean I could keep this house and my financial sanity.

The best luck can be the easiest to ignore. The car that runs fine. The heart that beats. The lungs that breathe. The experience that keeps my back pain-free despite stumbles. The chance glance out the window that reveals a momentary rainbow. The myriad of things that go right every moment, even if they don’t have to.

Wisdom is the most valuable. The good luck involved in winning the lottery jackpot would be appreciated; but wisdom is the hardest to describe with due humility. Partly that’s because the consequences of logic and luck can be immediate, yet the decision to follow intuition or to choose life paths based on personal values can only truly be called wise after a life has been lived. What’s more important than that?

Good logic and good luck and good wisdom are, well, they are what I am counting on. Good logic, good luck, and good wisdom are probably my best transition assistants.

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Pushing The Levers

Posted on December 5, 2012 by Tom Trimbath

This year set a record. My photos were on display and for sale every month through various venues. Nice coverage, and a compliment because most of the exhibits were by request. Today I sit beside my art outside Fine Balance Imaging, almost as part of the display, just like those summer days at Bailey’s Corner – except that this is indoors, it’s December, and I’m in a big, cushy, broken-in chair.  (Ah, a moment of optimism as a person walks by, stops, and pays attention to the display. Looks like I’ll get at least the traffic that’s headed to the rest room.) Today I push this lever. Yesterday I pushed some others. Tomorrow will be a different set. But that’s normal. Not even the Dalai Lama does only one thing.

Fringe

I know I’ve been more than busy enough when I look forward to power outages. Bring up the wind, take down a line, and I’m not the only one breathing a sigh of relief from a long list of chores. Whenever power on the island fails Facebook threads appear as people celebrate their externally imposed vacation. My favorite local group, The Rural Characters, even have a song about power failures. We gather at such times for simple pleasures, like sharing wine, comfort food, games, and stories. Candle light is appealing. And then in the song they finish by turning on the generator after everyone’s gone home. Sure they could’ve fired up the generator and kept the lights on and kept working, but the excuse is welcome.

Today though is a day for pushing some of those levers. My art is on the wall and in the display rack: The Overlooked Everyday Beauty of Whidbey’s Nature. Others capture summer sunshine, birds migrating through, and kids on the beach. I’m drawn to what we locals see throughout the rest of the year as well, the little vignettes accidentally arranged and only noticed as we walk along the sand, head down looking at what’s been washed up or is about to be washed away.

Soft Rocks - Twelve Months at Cultus Bay

Between the framed pieces and the floor rack of prints is a table of my books. All of my narratives are there: stories about bicycling across America, year-round travel in Washington’s Cascades, and even the book about personal finance. The book that isn’t there is the most popular, Walking Thinking Drinking Across Scotland; but, it’s an e-book. A pile of electrons just isn’t the same.

Walking Thinking Drinking Across Scotland

Living in a place like Whidbey, or the Outer Banks, or in some ski mecca, has financial implications. Some are able to live here because they have more than enough money. (I was almost there, and hope to get back there.) Some are able to live here because they have a well-paying job, but they pay for it with long commutes. (Which is another opportunity to link off to another Rural Characters’ song.) Many that live and work on the island do so with business cards that are crowded with job titles, or have a spread of cards to cover each business. Look around most vacation spots. The local businesses are usually selling more than one good or service, and the residents are frugal. Artists are also bookkeepers-for-hire. Authors are also marketers-for-hire. One guy is a gardener, nursery operator, and part-time paleontologist. There’s money in those mammoth bones that hide on our beaches.

My mix is consultant for people in transition and for creatives, artist, author, and speaker. Every aspect is gaining traction, but not enough to appease the mortgage company – yet.

Lifetime careers exist. They may appear to be in decline, but I know plenty of people that have had the same job for decades. The expected trend is that we must get comfortable changing careers several times in our lives. I’m in the midst of one of those transitions. They aren’t easy, but they can be positive.

Change is the only constant, and considering the pace of technological change I’m not surprised to hear that changes in careers and lifestyles will become more common. Being willing to change becomes a necessity. For those with a karmic view, accepting change makes life easier, fighting change makes life much tougher, ignoring change leads to change being forced upon the changee.

I’m willing to change, and am trying many things to find which path or paths are the way to go. It hasn’t been easy, and maybe I’ve already taken the right steps. Many have assured me that this will all work out alright and that I’m doing the right things. Glad to hear it. Imagine how hard this would be if I wasn’t willing to try new things.

Then I look around at people and organizations that are fighting or trying to ignore change, and I feel sorry for them. Resisting change rarely ends well. Old-style financial institutions, bureaucracies, and data deniers, are only delaying and intensifying the abruptness of their eventual change. Iceland went the other route. They had a financial crisis. Rather than try to prop up dysfunctional banks and politicians, they overhauled the government and forgave mortgage debt across the country. The change was hard on some, and inequitable in some ways, but the change was quick, fixed many problems, and allowed the country to progress. Germany’s response to the energy crisis has been to switch to new forms of energy. Sweden went so clean that they’ve had to import garbage for their incinerators. The Netherlands don’t debate climate change. They prepare for it, because the cause isn’t as important as the effect.

Those countries aren’t limiting themselves to trying only one thing. They’re working as many levers as they can and watching the change.

Meanwhile, I am dismayed to see the US government pushing the same old levers while ignoring the changes in finance, technology, nature, and civilization. The eventual change may not be pleasant.

I hope I’m pushing the right levers. I’ve never felt so at home as I do in my house and on Whidbey. Maybe there’s better somewhere else. I’m willing to change, but maybe my change is to stay where I am, in some different way. Stay tuned.

Hmm, I’ve been pushing these levers. I wonder what would happen if I pulled them instead.

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