Dynamic Times April 2013 Edition

Posted on April 10, 2013 by Tom Trimbath

“And here comes the wind . . . ” “. . . blowing in more change.”

My quote . . . finished by a friend. It is windy this morning. Twenty knots or more in places. Others are more sheltered. Papers will be blown about. Power may flicker and fail. It will blow through. Sunday’s Query sparked commentary, one bit of which was courageous enough to be public. (Check the comments.) My recent life is dynamic, as is true for many because we are witnessing systemic shifts. Wealth disparity, global climate change, technological advancements, and undoubtedly other energies are redefining our lives. To some extent that’s always been true, but I think this time is different. This time the dynamics are global. And I must be aware of the local and the personal.

I enjoy trying to understand large systems, even while realizing that they are inherently chaotic. The details can’t be predicted, but general trends can be reasonably well guessed. There’s a large system sweeping through the neighborhood this morning. The path of individual raindrops is impossible to predict, but I can reasonably guess that my newspaper will be damp. I may not know which way the winds will swirl, but I know the clouds will break in waves against the houses across the bay.

Taken from a previous storm; and yes, for those familiar with Whidbey's landslides, I worry about my neighbors. - The view from my house (which is for sale.)

Taken from a previous storm; and yes, for those familiar with Whidbey’s landslides, I worry about my neighbors. – The view from my house (which is for sale.)

Wealth disparity is inevitable, and possibly healthy as in incentive in small doses, but taken to an extreme it can make the economy unsustainable.
Global climate change has probably passed a critical point, at least from my interpretation of the infamous CO2 chart in Inconvenient Truth.
Technology advancements continue to reinforce Ray Kurzweil’s and others’ predictions of a digital singularity. All three seem to be aiming towards dramatic change by 2045, or sooner. If I assume I can make enough money to keep my house, and if I refinanced on a thirty year mortgage, I’d be debt-free in a different world.

But what will that world look like?

The Occupy Movement isn’t cohesive, but they point to a more egalitarian world, possibly simultaneously more decentralized while many become more urban, possibly relying less on currencies, and definitely avoiding the current incarnations of debt.
Many of the responses to climate change are coming from individual actions, or even from independent actions of organizations, many times in a response to costs: commuting without cars, more efficient products, even more efficient factories.
Electronics are entering lives and even bodies more ubiquitously and with greater acceptance of large portions of the population.

I still haven’t painted a cohesive picture in my head that combines all of those trends, and I don’t worry about it much because I know I’ll get the details wrong, and can’t guess at the interactions. I also know that there are counter forces.

Our large institutions have great inertia and resistant change, but the healthiest will redefine themselves.
The climate is changing, but it involves the largest systems in our lives, which also means we don’t know if there are balancing forces, though I suspect that if they exist they will initiate their own uncomfortable dynamics.
As much as technology changes, many things stay the same because people don’t require change. Basic human interaction hasn’t changed – yet.

And of course, within any thirty year span any system can be disrupted.

Organizations too big to fail can fall because of one action by one individual, whether that’s a CEO or a trading clerk or someone who does something very public and inappropriate at a critical time.
Asteroids happen.
Technologies can sprout up or be abandoned because ingenuity and fashion move markets.

Whenever I consider such a list I wonder why I continue to invest and plan for a “normal” life, yet I know I do so because extrapolating from here and now is necessary to get to tomorrow. Even though I know change is coming, I must still live today’s life because here and now are where I exist and can act.

Within a few tomorrows I expect that I’ll have the same government, that I’ve already altered my lifestyle by choice and by the price of gas, and that I can’t afford any of the technological advances and am glad for the ones I’ve been given.

I wonder more about the interim because it involves races.

Will I be required to relinquish my home because of foreclosure, or will I find enough money from my business, a job, book and art sales, or a windfall; or will the financial institution that is my mortgage company implode from too many bad debts?
Will my various investments, both financial and energetic, finally pay for my patience and persistence, or will the systems they live within change, (and maybe change for the better – as the optimist in me speaks up.)
Will my personal maturation find me a new perspective that redefines my world and which niches that I’ll ponder? (For more about that, check out Walking Thinking Drinking Across Scotland, both the book and the blog.)

A friend and surfing and island icon finishes his emails with the following quote. (Some of you know him as the drew in drewslist.) I hope he doesn’t mind being quoted.

“Life is a wave. Your attitude is your surfboard.
Stay stoked & aim for the light!”
– Drew Kampion

A personal variation:
Defy the wind. Grow.

We can’t know the details, but we can know what will happen – change.

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Query Growth In Wealth Disparity

Posted on April 7, 2013 by Tom Trimbath

Queries – the place where I ask questions and ask for answers.

Go watch this video.

Okay, even I don’t watch a video just because someone told me to. If you’ve noticed, I rarely post links to videos, preferring to send people to data sources, even if it is only wikipedia. But this video about wealth disparity in America by politzane is well produced and made me think about our economy in a new way. Nothing said is new but, as a follower of trends and someone who has studied large, complex systems professionally, this video inspired a thought about what comes next.

Large, complex systems tend to be stable because of inertia, but can be driven to extremes at which point they either self-correct or collapse. They rarely safely stabilize at or near a boundary. Pop stars lose their popularity. Forests recover after volcanoes knock down all the trees. The extreme values of CO2 emissions are one of the worries about global climate change. The way this video presented the wealth distribution in America brought to mind those other extreme scenarios.

Polls show the majority of Americans believe there is wealth inequality in America. A return to a more generally acceptable distribution would take years or decades, but a timely reversal would probably be enough to stabilize public opinion. The data show that the trend is for increasing wealth inequality. There are limits to such increases. According to the video, the 1% of the population with the highest net worth have 40% of the nation’s wealth and have increased their income from 9% of the nation’s income in 1976 to 24% in 2012. Extrapolation is abhorrent, and two data points are a poor set, yet I work with what I’ve got. Even if they didn’t increase their net worth percentage, that would suggest they’d make 39% of the income in 2048.

Of course such a simplistic analysis is ridiculous. Then I realized that simplistic was actually conservative. The likely extrapolated rate is greater than what I assumed, otherwise the top 1% would’ve been making -6% in 1940. The constant net worth assumption is easy to challenge too because it is easy to imagine most of that wealth is invested in something that does about or better than inflation. Otherwise the richest 1% is hiring the wrong money managers.

But, what is unsustainable? The absolute limits are 100%, and that’s really only true on a global scale. At some point before 100% there are too few people living well enough to sustain the system, which is a clinical way of describing a human calamity.

That’s why this post is a query. Has anyone already performed such an analysis? It seems like a logical thing for some economics dissertation, or the product of a think tank, or the result of someone who isn’t just pondering this on a Sunday night (that I was supposed to be taking off – having worked myself to uselessness as I struggle to defend against a pending foreclosure.) Do the other analyses show self-correcting mechanisms? Is there a positive path that leads us through to – what?

If you know of any such studies, either supportive, contrary, or from a different perspective, please post them in the comments so we can take this conversation beyond on video.

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Consulting Client Success

Posted on April 6, 2013 by Tom Trimbath

Smile. A call from a client starts with, “Where are all of these people coming from? What do I do now?” It happens the majority of the time. We build a blog or a site or, to use the current jargon, a social media platform, and they’re finding friends and fans they didn’t know existed. Success happens and they all accomplished the first step in handling it: they recognized it. Recognizing success can be hard after months or years of bad news. Humans engrain habits. We practice behaviours as survival techniques, but when the situation changes we must change. For me, that may involve a self-imposed slap to the forehead, or a prolonged moment with a confused look on my face. It may look silly, but if looking silly is what’s necessary to change to a good habit, then silly may be the key to success. Relaxing may be enough, and easier.

March was a tough month. It was so tough that I actually had to drop my Rule of 7 and take a day or two off. I might even take tomorrow off. Imagine that, me not working on a Sunday. It wasn’t tough because it was all bad news. There was good news in there too. The mix was what made it tough. My emotional clutch wore out as my internal transmission switched from funerals to windfalls, from disappointments to encouragements, from too many highs to too many lows. As one friend put it, I accomplished more in the last few months than most folks she knows. As I suspect my mortgage company would put it, that wasn’t enough. Even now I feel a bit like a warrior who has returned home victorious to find the farmhouse leaning and the livestock walking through the gaps in the fences.

I enjoy consulting. It is one of those things I would do for free if I had the time and didn’t need the money. On a biological level I don’t need the money, but the government, the utilities, and the mortgage company won’t accept any other payment. The majority of the people I work with are folks that actively working to change their lives. They recognize their potential, but may not know how to get from here to their goal. Sometimes that requires help making strategic choices, sometimes it takes a program plan, sometimes it requires building a public presence. That public presence is the most fun to watch. Strategies and plans are powerful, but a blog or a web site can be immediate.

Welcome to my blog. I appreciate it when you also take the time to visit the rest of the site and my online galleries. Traffic continues to build, doubling in less than a year, or so. (The line isn’t smooth, so it is hard to measure the growth exactly.)

July Corsage at Gratitude Gallery

July Corsage – Gratitude Gallery

Grass Mirrors Sky - Fine Art America

Grass Mirrors Sky – Fine Art America

Welcome to the latest client’s blog (Reaching Out). She was recently laid-off, decided to take it as an opportunity instead of a strife, and is building a community with the other folks who were laid off. The blog is less than a week old and her site already has more traffic than mine. “What do I do now?” Step one: celebrate success. Step two: keep doing what you’ve been doing. Step three (especially in social media): don’t try to control it. Social media is less about the media and more about the social. People are dropping by. Have a party. Considering the size of the internet, the online party may be unimaginably large. If so, say thank you to the crowd.

It is too easy to treat good news with suspicion. Analyze intensely enough and ultimately base motivations are revealed. Doesn’t everything reduce to food, shelter, and family? Or was it sex, drugs, and rock and roll? Depth is valuable, but don’t dig so deep that the all the good leaks out. The good is the building material for the future.

By the way, good ideas can also be argued into submission. A while back I sketched a ship that would begin the Herculean task of cleaning plastic from the ocean. I was amazed at the response of those that undermined the concept because it would somehow encourage the continued use of plastic. What? We’re supposed to pick up after ourselves & not litter. How many solutions are dismissed because critics only talked about the costs or imagined implications, not the benefits?

Our world is recovering from the Dismal Decade. Our attitudes were trained to challenge things that were otherwise innocuous: shoes, underwear, little bottles of liquids. Every open public space is a probable stage for security cameras. Every use of an electronic device may be tracked and monitored. No wonder when something different, something non-Dismal, occurs that a first response is cautious and suspicious. Sometimes an offer to help is an offer to help. Ulterior motives can always be imagined, but that’s because we are an imaginative species. What really happened? People visited a blog. Someone offers to help.

I’d like to list my good news, but it is hard to do. Partly it is because much of the news is of potentials. Some recent job possibilities are fascinating, but they aren’t guaranteed, take weeks to come to fruition, and are being kept quiet. Much of my life, and many of my communications involve discretion. Entrepreneurs hold onto plans until the right time to reveal them. Nuances take too many words to describe. In the meantime, I quietly wait. There is good news that is easy to pass along without worry about discretion or guarantees. My most recent book, Walking Thinking Drinking Across Scotland, which is selling well in the US and the UK. Sales are enough to pay a bill or two each month. Some readers are then moving onto my other books. That’s the sort of action that can make an author a living. My photos also have a new and improved home. Fine Balance Imaging, the printer I use for all of my fine art work, just opened a new set of online galleries. They do good work. Visit, shop, and buy!

I also know that I’ve received so much bad news over the last two years that sometimes my good news takes a while to sink in. I don’t think I’ve turned down any legitimate job offers or such (and yes, there were some legally questionable ones), but I do know that some compliments went unacknowledged, and that everyday beauty has been overlooked. So, tomorrow is a training session for myself. A day when I will be consultant and client. My homework will be to reflect and emphasize the good, and to train myself to a return to success, whatever form it takes. Paper and pen will be involved, and maybe some looking in the mirror.

In a rare writing digression, I will deviate from paragraphs and conclude with what might be a poem.

Don’t fear it.
Don’t push it.
But, be there
to steer it.
Success.

Flight - and no, that's not me; but, I like the attitude.

Flight – and no, that’s not me; but, I like the attitude.

PS (And as an example of challenging myself, I dropped back here to edit in a line of very good news. Several people have told me that I am inspirational. It isn’t in my nature, or my habits, to mention that; but, maybe that’s the sort of thing I have to write here, so I hear it in my head, heart, and soul. Humility says say nothing; but maybe recognizing that about myself is worth more. Changing habits is a scary thing to do.)

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Positive Interest

Posted on April 3, 2013 by Tom Trimbath

It’s spring, and I forgot my camera. The photographer in me chided myself as I walked past flowers and early light on the way to the bus. Then I chuckled because, even though I left my SLR and point & shoot at home, I was carrying four cameras: one in my cell phone, one in my laptop, and two in my iPad. Ideas that seemed ridiculous become innocuous. That’s why I am less likely to laugh at ideas that sound unlikely. That’s true in investing, and in life.

Good morning MicroVision. MVIS is up 30% as I type. MicroVision is the storied company behind a story stock, a great example of high risk and potentially high reward. I bought shares of MVIS back in 1999. Can you say “Long Term Buy and Hold”? Their idea is simple, ingenious, or ridiculous. The company is based on the technology behind making a chip that includes an oscillating mirror. Simple. Used one way it can act as a camera. Reverse it and the mirror can act as a projector. ShowWX Ingenious. But, who would want a projector when they already have a screen? Ridiculous. Through over a decade of technological progress, unfortunate finances, and manufacturing delays, the stock is known for high promises with little substance. Today they announced a deal that includes the regular dose of ambiguity, but they included data; “$4.6 million in development fees to MicroVision over the next 13 months“. Let me check. Yep. It’s still up 30%, on over 25 times normal volume, and it’s only 3.5 hours into the trading day.

Why is everyone so interested? $4.6 million is not a lot of money in Corporate America. 2,000,000 shares traded isn’t much either. But the money is coming in like the cavalry, arriving just as the threat of finding funding loomed. And the trading volume is about one-tenth of the total shares available in the company. Ten percent of a company trading ownership is a major sign of interest.

Why would anyone else be interested? MicroVision’s technology isn’t a panacea and they do have competition, but the potential market is so enormous that even a slice of a slice is enough to create massively profitable companies. Count the displays you see in a day. Laptops, cell phones, cash registers, dashboards, bulletin boards, almost any electronic device has a display. Almost all of those displays are made of glass, take a lot of power, and weigh a lot. For some devices, the display is the major cost, weight, and power draw. MicroVision’s pico projectors are only slightly larger than the cameras embedded in phones, and are lighter, cost less, and use less power than conventional displays. The technology can’t handle very bright displays, but they’re always in focus. They may become as ubiquitous as cameras. They are also why things like Google Glasses become feasible. (Ah, but is MVIS inside?) Human creativity means things that are unimaginable will be imagined. Beside, the eco side of me likes the idea of better displays that use fewer resources.

Why am I interested? Have you been following my story? I need money. Granted, the only reason I need money is because our system of exchange for things like food, shelter, and utilities requires money. Fortunately, I own shares of MVIS. Unfortunately, I bought them at much higher prices. MVIS has to increase 25 times to make my money back, and even that won’t be enough to totally get me out of debt. It’s been a rough ride. And I’ve ridden it because MVIS could be worth ten times that. That would pay off the mortgage, the credit card, remodel the house, and undam a lot of plans. As with any investment, no one knows.

My portfolio relies on more than one stock. I continue to be a fan of diversification. Diversification is one of the cheapest defenses against risk, but it doesn’t come with guarantees either. All of my stocks are down over 50%. Four are down by more than 80%. Two are down by more than 90%. It happens. It is rare, but it happens. My portfolio also relies on patience, that Long Term Buy and Hold I mentioned above (aka LTBH). If a company can survive to profitability, then the ups and downs that preceded that date become moot as financial institutions plug income and expense, asset and liability into their spreadsheets, and then adjust for growth.

That’s what’s supposed to happen, yet – well, here I say it again – there are no guarantees. Look at Dendreon. They received FDA approval for a revolutionary and effective cancer treatment (Provenge), and the stock (DNDN) went down 90%. That was the first cornerstone of my diversified portfolio to fail. When I sold the last of those shares I had to quit paying the mortgage. The patience aspect of my portfolio strategy is being severely tested.

The good news that exceeds MicroVision’s good news is that the market is starting to respond to good news. In a rational market, good news makes a stock rise and bad news makes a stock drop. For the last few years, despite steady progress, almost every stock in my portfolio has dropped regardless of their news. The markets were irrational. Now, they appear to be returning to reason and rationality. Look back at the Small Recoveries experienced by AMSC and RSOL. Good news produced a positive response. That’s good in general. Personally, it is good, and part of a race between recovery and foreclosure.

If the markets are returning to rationality many will be surprised. Maybe the rest of my efforts will make sense too. That may sound ridiculous, but in retrospect it may appear to be innocuous.

Ironically, four cameras at hand didn’t produce a photo for today’s post. The laptop camera isn’t very convenient for close-ups of flowers, and the iPad and cell phone don’t readily communicate with my MacBook. Welcome to a snapshot taken with my Point & Shoot.

Early Spring Blush

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Housing Redefined

Posted on March 30, 2013 by Tom Trimbath

A local landslide makes international news because homes are involved. A real estate market is bubbling up along the west coast. Friends are making tiny houses. People are downsizing. Estates are being settled that involve magnificent houses. And of course, my home for sale, alas. Housing is on my mind, and I think housing is being redefined.

Home For Sale

Fans of word play may be disappointed because I am not going to make puns and metaphors from the houses affected by Wednesday’s massive landslide. Sorry, but it is too serious – but I’m sure someone is making jokes when the microphones aren’t pointed their way.

The papers and the people easily handled and described the previous slide in downtown Langley because it was within our easy understanding. Five dump trucks of dirt slid and covered and closed a street. Take a few days, be careful, and it becomes a temporary inconvenience, and maybe eventually only a story – even while being a harbinger. The Ledgewood slide was tens of thousands of dump truck loads, or as another put it, a football stadium filled ninety feet deep. (My mistake. Originally I thought it was about ninety football stadiums of dirt, though I am sure that has happened somewhere.) Before others chastise them for building along a bluff, many of the houses were built far from it. It is hard to remember but, Mother Nature measures earth movements in terms of continents, and regularly scours continents with planetary glaciers or drops them into subduction zones.

Housing is stability. A home is a castle. One of the reasons to own is to no longer be obligated to another person for where you sleep. Given enough land, it is even possible to become self-sufficient. Depending on the land and the household, that’s anywhere from a couple of acres somewhere properly watered to entire desert valleys. But houses aren’t stable. They can be part of slides, swallowed by sink holes, shaken by quakes, washed away by waves, buried under ash, picked up by tornadoes, blown away by hurricanes, and floated away by floods. Each event seems as temporary as its time in the news cycle. Yet, watch for a while and see Whidbey (and much of the West Coast), Florida (and anywhere aquifers are depleted), Japan (and the rest of the Ring of Fire), Indonesia (and any tsunami-prone coastline), Iceland (and any place near a volcano), Greensburg (and any town in tornado alley), New Jersey after Hurricane Sandy (and the rest of the hurricane, cyclone, and typhoon prone world), and Katrina which is now synonymous with New Orleans (though floods happen anywhere there’s water, ask someone downstream of a monsoon.)

Okay, I just spooked myself there. Let’s also keep in mind that houses last a long time. There are probably millions that have stood for centuries. There may even be some that have stood for a millennium.

Houses built for 1000 A.D. were built for a different society and culture, and provided different functions. Self-sufficiency was assumed. Everyone was off-the-grid. That was largely true even a hundred years ago in America. The Rural Electrification Act wasn’t passed until 1936, ten years after my Dad was born. Homes built since World War II gradually became more dependent on infrastructure, became more ornamental than functional, and grew even after family sizes shrunk.

Housing is entering a new instability.

Families are smaller. People are more likely to live alone. There is less formal entertaining. There is less time for home maintenance. A lot of spare time is spent within arm’s reach of a computer. Houses don’t have to be as big. Smaller houses can actually be more fun. This house is the smallest I’ve owned, and it’s the only one I consider home.

Financial pressures are encouraging less expensive houses. Whether caught in the real estate crunch or not, people are taking on less debt. They’re also less likely to see real estate as a stable investment. Of course, the last few years have shaken confidence in almost every style of financial instrument. Smaller houses are cheaper to buy, maintain, and heat. Get rid of a lot of extraneous stuff and find a few hundred square feet work better than a few thousand. Owning a mortgage to own a house is now viewed as risky, and dealing with any upsets in the arrangement reveals a list of negative reinforcements. Some people are building tiny houses simply to be debt-free. They’re willing to give up aspects of their lives rather than have to deal with bureaucracies that control that most vital aspect of modern life, where a person lives.

Cabin by Angela

My money and subsequent housing troubles have sparked fascinating discussions. I live in a creative community, and it looks forward to finding creative solutions. The current favorite, and we’re serious, is for someone to buy my house, and then rent it back to me as a “rent with an option to buy”. Interested? Give me a call. That conversation sparked another. I’m not the only one in this situation. Maybe we spread the risk by getting five owners to buy five houses in the same fashion. Mutual support and motivations result.

There’s more creativity to come. My house is small, and I could live in smaller. But what about the big houses? Estates are being settled that involve houses that are thousands of square feet. People are living in only select floors or rooms because their houses are larger than their needs. A house that raised a family with one child per bedroom and a bath for every bed may be a bit large for empty-nesters but the extra room can be rationalized as guest space; but after one of the partners dies it can become a large empty space that has wonderful memories but a lot of dusting. Who do they sell to? One creative solution is to turn large houses into intentional communities, which sounds innovative but which is really the incarnation of communes of the sixties and communities like the Quakers and the Pilgrims. Maybe a new trend in home renovations will be turning rooms into storage, or studio, or apartments, or even being sealed for later use.

Our society is bifurcating. The majority of the population is moving into the cities where life is much more interdependent. Others are retreating or returning to relying on smaller communities, less dependent on large infrastructure, with smaller obligations to centralized institutions, and a greater resourcefulness. In between are the ever-larger houses built over the last few decades, that may become a suburban vacuum. Too many people have witnessed too much natural and societal instability to lock back into hose large traps. No wonder tiny houses are being built on wheels. You never know why, where, or when you’ll have to suddenly move – and move to something better.

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My Jobs Report Month 19

Posted on March 27, 2013 by Tom Trimbath

Nineteen months. Nineteen months ago, just as I thought my portfolio would recover from an earlier decline, it took three massive hits. My optimistic side expected a recovery because the businesses were making progress, even if their stocks weren’t. My pessimistic side knew it was time to begin applying for jobs, just in case. The responsible thing to do was both. Besides, I could always quit looking for a job if the portfolio recovered. I could quit worrying about a recovery if I got a good job. There were a lot of IFs back then. I’ve passed through a lot of those IF gates, with currently insufficient good luck. Hope remains in the IFs that remain, and in the possibilities I haven’t considered.

The good news:
The stock market, the real estate market, and the job markets are recovering.

  • I haven’t heard any friends cheering the markets, maybe it’s because they don’t believe it, maybe it’s because they don’t want to celebrate in front of me.
  • The real estate market is keeping my real estate agent friends busy, and there’s talk that Seattle is starting yet another housing boom and bubble.
  • As for jobs, very few of my friends are jobless. One even went from jobless to having two part-time jobs in less than a month.

The not-so-good news.

  • The global financial situation has a shaken foundation that some question. That’s not good for a system that’s based on faith.
  • The real estate market may be creating a boom in Seattle, but I haven’t seen it yet on Whidbey. My home for sale and the pending foreclosure are in a tight race.
  • And, as for jobs, many people are able to live comfortably by working eighty hours a week and not having a life. Several of my middle-aged friends have lost their jobs or are in fear of losing them. Well, at least some have gotten very good at quickly updating resumes and cover letters.

The sooner-or-laters that I considered in August 2011 evidently weren’t sooner. The laters are stacking up. Small victories can create massive positive effects at this point. A few items have already made a big difference: a gifted truck that allowed me to sell my beloved Jeep, buyers for some household items like my couch, and public and private emotional support. Most of the events are measured in how many days of living expenses are generated because no combination of them have been sufficient to thwart the threat of foreclosure. The items of good news may not be enough to pay the mortgage but I celebrate each anyway. Good news is happening more often. Gain enough momentum soon and the bad news can suddenly fade.

The more substantial good news is actually less substantial because it is only a potential as I type. (Nerd note: Time to collapse some sufficiently positive quantum states.)

  • One friend has referred me for a very nice job doing very good work. Referrals are greatly appreciated because they are more successful than trying to appeal to resume bots, especially, for jobs that require critical thinking and people skills rather than certifications and labels.
  • We kicked-off the indiegogo campaign for the HCLE Virtual Museum. It gets funded, I get funded.
  • Friends are kicking around creative housing scenarios that keep me in my house. The leading candidate is for someone to buy it, rent it back to me, and possibly rent it back with an option to buy. That way they already have a potential buyer lined up for their real estate investment.
  • The movie idea progresses. This long episode in my life is so bizarre that several folks have suggested making a movie about it. We think we’ve found a way to do it. Stay tuned.

There’s even some currently slightly substantial news that could become more than sufficient. Sales of my book about Scotland are picking up in places I’ve never contacted. The reviews are good. Books are essentially lottery tickets written by authors without guarantees. Maybe Walking Thinking Drinking Across Scotland can carry me through to the comfortable life of my daydreams. Buy. Read. Review. Tell your friends. Buying my ebook funds my life a dollar or two at a time.

Walking Thinking Drinking Across Scotland

My friends’ stories help. Whether it is one friend finding two jobs in one month, or Erin Waterman’s significant upgrade, or Angela Ramseyer’s progress with Mighty Micro Built houses, I see inspiration in their success. And I witness that those successes were the result of diligent work that was rewarded in ways they didn’t expect. An astrologer friend told me years ago that I would succeed in ways I couldn’t imagine. I continue to believe her because otherwise it can be hard to imagine succeeding on those days that are filled with rejection letters, mortgage company concerns, and a lack of sales, students, or clients. My friends’ successes came from unexpected directions. What direction will work for me? Will success wait until I am not looking for it?

The unexpected happened on Whidbey today. A few hundred yards of land slid to the sea, cutting off more than a dozen houses. People who never lost a job, who dutifully paid their bills, and who moved to Whidbey for a view of the sunset over the sea had the ground shift from under them. The videos and photos are eye-candy for the news teams. The main message that may be lost was paraphrased from a neighbor. Despite the worries, no one was hurt.

As I consider the sooners and the laters, the potentials and the unexpecteds, I try to keep in mind that this is temporary, the only person that can hurt myself is myself, and as my Dad asks, “Is there food on the table? If so, good. Start from there.” And I do. And I remind myself that my greatest ally is myself. And I pour myself a glass of wine or such, and look at my view and appreciate what I have and what can be. I might just have to wait a little bit more.

a short walk from my front door

a short walk from my front door

PS Want to catch up? Here’s last month’s report.

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Racing For Funds

Posted on March 23, 2013 by Tom Trimbath

The countdown has begun! There are only 51 days left! Yesterday, I helped launch an indiegogo campaign. The race to fund the HCLE Virtual Museum finally began to move. There are other countdowns commencing, things that can make a person anxious or eager: foreclosure, taxes, real estate contract, portfolio recovery, job applications, consultant gigs, classes, and collaborations. They all seem to be working to similar schedules. Will the funds I need arrive in time? I certainly hope so. When I ran marathons I always reminded myself, Set My Own Pace, Run My Own Race.

Yesterday, we (Liza Loop and I), launched an indiegogo campaign for the History of Computing in Learning and Education Virtual Museum. Do you remember the 70s and 80s? Within a very short time what, how, and why we learned changed. Computers became part of our world through our workplaces and classrooms. We had to learn about them using old school techniques of lecture and lab. They were the subject. By the end of that short period the computers had become the tool. That was a serious bit of adaptation we went through, and those efforts shouldn’t be ignored. The human species has survived because we’ve adapted whenever we’ve met change. Studying those periods of adaptation teaches us a lot about ourselves, our society, our culture, and how to survive future adaptations. Thousands of documents were produced as pioneering educators documented the change and their best guesses at appropriate responses.

HCLE

Plenty of museums are preserving the hardware. Thank you. Liza realized that no one was collecting the documents, research reports, and software. Back in 2006, she founded the museum by collecting over ten thousand of the documents. Care to add to the collection? HCLE’s museum will be virtual because everything vital to that mission can be stored electronically. The documents can be scanned. The software can be loaded, and run in emulation environments. Even the lessons that are only stored as personal memories can be recorded as audio and video. (We’ve started a facebook page and a twitter feed. Join in!) After a determined up-front effort, the museum can exist virtually, and inexpensively. But there’s a race here, too. The documents weren’t all written on archival paper. Many of them are newsletters run off from the days of dot matrix printers. The software may survive, if it is already stored in the cloud, but only a curated effort will know for sure. And, of course, human memories aren’t immortal (at least not yet.)

(My story: My freshman year at Virginia Tech was the last year they offered a class in slide rule, the first year they required hand calculators for engineers, and an era when I could meet my foreign language credits by learning FORTRAN. That transitory perspective affected my philosophy of life. That’s a much longer story.)

The sooner we get started, the more we can save. Which hopefully, saves time and effort and stress for some future educator. By the way, there’s a fun aspect to this too. Many people learned how to use computers by playing games. We intend to save games, too – and have them available for play in emulations of their original software environments.

Personal Disclosure: The sooner the museum gets funded, the sooner I get funded. Currently, I am the Interim Program Manager, a title I enjoy. Do you notice the “Interim” part? The indiegogo campaign funds the Proof of Concept. Full funding is still being sought through traditional philanthropy. After we get sufficient funding the job title drops the Interim and switches from 1099s to a W-2s, and not just for me. The museum will require dozens of employees (though volunteers are definitely welcome) to sort thousands of documents, catalog, scan, and archive as necessary. There is also a need for folks on the IT side. The museum is virtual, which will be the result of a lot of real effort.

But that’s not all! (That phrase sets of a sensorial suite of insomniac television viewing.) But here, there’s more; because, there are no guarantees.

Indiegogo and I may become very familiar with each other. As I’ve mentioned before, most of the people I know who are in similar situations are working together to find common solutions. There’s a lot of collaboration going on. There’s never been a lack of ideas or energy, just money. Finally with indiegogo, we can reach beyond our island. (It gets a bit silly when we’re all asking each other for money and none of us has enough. Even attending the potlucks gets to be an expensive aspect of the process.) Several of the collaborations are consolidating around ideas that pervade the 47%, or the 99%, or however Occupy is identified now. Some of the ideas, like a movie or two, are topical and should be addressed sooner rather than later, which is appropriate because the participants need the money sooner rather than later. There are a lot of horses in that race.

Through job possibilities that are showing up outside my regular job site search, some very sweet opportunities have been introduced. That’s a nice way of saying we’re early in the process and applications haven’t been filled out because we have to figure out how to get past the resume bots, or the business is so new that they haven’t figured out how to ask the question. It is all good news, and news that works to a schedule measured in weeks and months, rather like the foreclosure process.

My regular business is seeing a quiet, yet impressive, increase in interest. Despite low attendance, people want to take my classes – but maybe in sessions customized for their business or group. OK! Consulting has had a lull in work, but a lengthening list of potential clients. Such communications take place on a weekly basis. I guess I’m popping up on their weekly review of their to-do list.

Money comes in and money goes out. That’s the way the economy works. Personal finance works similarly, and the swirl in which I am working is turbulent. Global economies seem to be similarly confused. I can do my part by setting my own pace, running my own race, and seeing who else I can help come up to speed. We’re in this race together.

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Fell For It

Posted on March 20, 2013 by Tom Trimbath

“We have met the enemy and he is us.” And who said comic strips don’t contain wisdom? That line is from Pogo, a classic and cancelled comic strip. I’ll make it personal. I have met the enemy and it is me. A few weeks ago the mortgage company gave me a fright, and I’ve been reacting to it almost every day since, without any extra effort on their part. They used my own energy against me. I bow to their martial art. I shall also get back up again and bow to myself.

A few weeks ago I made the mistake of actually trying to talk to the mortgage company again. I’m interested in having a logical discussion about the financial agreement we are operating from, but they come across as relying on emotional tactics, as if accusing me of unseemly behaviour will somehow produce money for them. It sounds like a terrible business model, but they do it so well that maybe it pays for itself. I continue to wonder how many heart attacks they induce, and what the total cost is to society. On February 26th they told me that they’d start foreclosure on my house on March 17th. I’ve been in a panic mode ever since, coupled with the death of my step-mother. It’s been a turbulent month.

Friends and family weighed in. No one goes through exactly the same situation, but enough other people have gone through foreclosures that I have a better idea of the possibilities. By the way, one of the surprises has been how many foreclosures have happened to people making six figure incomes. That would seem to be a powerful symptom that something is not right with the system or the situation.

My fears prompted me to consult with people in the industry. I talked to real estate agents first, and got a wide range of responses. I needed better information. I hired a professional, using money which won’t be going to the mortgage company. A lawyer who works on real estate law took forty minutes to find that there was no clear answer. My active imagination wasn’t going to be bounded. Worries and fears proliferated.

It is now March 20th, and at anytime I may be delivered the actual foreclosure notice. The lawyer did point out to me what the mortgage company had done. Nothing. All they had done was make a phone call. Nothing official happens with a phone call. Everything has to be written and delivered. If I’d ignored that phone call I wouldn’t have had the double stresses of the first half of March and wouldn’t have changed the timing of the notice. I wouldn’t be sitting here reacting to every car or truck that drives by. I wouldn’t have anxieties about opening the mail box.

Ignorance is bliss, eh?

Well, only to a point. It is prudent to be aware of our situation whether it is housing, health, security, or whatever. That’s responsible living. Uncertainty is the ally of anxiety. What if this? What if that? Worrying every ache and pain can drive up health care costs. Scare tactics are one of the reasons I unplugged my satellite dish. The ads for health care were really ads for disease. “Are you going to die from this undetectable illness? How can you know? Call now for details! And don’t forget to talk to your doctor to see if you are at risk.” Daily deluges drove me away. My stress level improved when I streamed shows instead of wading through tortuous messages every 5-10 minutes. I feel much better now, thank you. (Well, right now I have a headache, but you know what that’s about.)

Actually, I do feel much better. Yes, I have a headache, but most of my other aches dwindled. And, yes, I have a headache; but, I also spend less time gnawing on that rock. Imagine how bad it would be if I hadn’t learned that lesson.

My situation is actually comical when put in perspective. The amount of money it would take to postpone this situation is less than what I’d see as a daily swing in my portfolio just two years ago. The amount of income it would take to make this situation go away is far less than what I could make as an engineer. A few days of full-time consulting each month would clear up the issue and steer me back towards thriving. Such small amounts in a different situation have enormous effects in this situation. There are probably people spending more on upgrades to their new car. Yet, yesterday’s portfolio can’t pay today’s bills. A job I can do, but can’t seem to get again, doesn’t help if the paycheck isn’t delivered. The optimist in me keeps in mind that those people visiting my consulting page or hearing about me from word-of-mouth could call at any time. Please pardon a delay as I check to see if it is the mortgage company’s number. The repercussions of their calls are counter-productive.

As an ad campaign, the mortgage company tactics are very effective at dissuading people from wanting a mortgage. I think the tiny house movement is driven more by a desire to be debt-free than a desire to downsize. Cabin by Angela Of course, for some of us, both things are a draw. First, lets see if I can stay in this small house (864 sq. ft.). The long term impact may be the undermining of the housing market at a time when people are downsizing from other trends like smaller families, smaller yards, and a return to urban living.

I’ve studied martial arts to varying degrees for over two decades. One of the simple lessons: when you fall down, get back up. Catch your breath. Shake it out. Try again, maybe with a difference.

My plans remain in effect. Lately I’ve been investigating a few variations. The most noticeable is a series of indiegogo campaigns that may be launched soon. (Indiegogo is a way to raise money for projects via crowdfunding. Trust me, you’ll read more about it soon.) The less noticeable change is a greater reliance on faith. Conventional wisdom is frequently backed by anecdotes, not data. I have to trust that hard work will pay off, that perseverance pays, that good luck follows bad luck, that the dawn follows the dark. If faith wins through, then maybe the fall I take is into a life I can live and love without fear.

Oh, maybe that’s why this particular piece of art just found a nice home, so I’d have a reason to remember that day and smile too.

October Smiles

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Gnawing On A Rock

Posted on March 16, 2013 by Tom Trimbath

“He’s worrying that like a dog gnaws a bone.” It is good to take time to consider, well, anything; mostly because for many, it is uncommon to take time for contemplation in today’s frenetic world. A dog knows there’s always something more to get out of a bone: a bit more flavor, maybe break through to the marrow. To many people, there’s so little chewing that they swallow ideas whole, without consideration. Some take time to chew and appreciate what they’ve been served. And a few will chew slowly, finding every last bit of enjoyment available. The trick is to not go too far because sometimes, what we’re chewing on isn’t a bone; it’s a fossil, it’s a stone. Gnawing on a rock might look the same, but the rock will outlast the teeth. I’m training myself to spit out the rocks and find something chewable.

I am frequently asked to review my financial misfortunes, to gnaw on the issue for a bit – yet again. The mortgage company is definitely curious. It is a good idea to consider the situation, look for solutions, and then to work on those solutions; but the effort can become a trap. Think through it once, good. Think through it again, also good; because, it is easy to miss something the first time. Think through it thirty times in a day when nothing has changed, and that’s gnawing on a rock. Enough folks are asking, and I appreciate the interest, that to keep from gnawing on the rock again and again in successive conversations, I’ve decided to provide a synopsis and update of my Backup Plans.

Pre-Plan A – A “Normal” Life
My “Normal” life, a regular job and suburban lifestyle, was outwardly successful, yet unsustainable because it was unhealthy. I’ve wondered if I’d be alive if I’d never left that world. I think I could do well there now that I’ve matured a bit, but we can never exactly go back, can we?

Plan A – Investing
This might yet work, but the portfolio is dramatically depleted through an unfortunate mix of poor timing and a few company misfortunes. Yet, what remains could succeed. (Come on AMSC, GERN, GIG, MVIS, and RSOL! Sooner is better than later, and later may be too late.)

Plan B – Trimbath Creative Enterprises
My business is doing better than ever, though not good enough yet to comfortably pay my bills, even without paying the mortgage. But, this is only March and I’ve already made more in 2013 than I did in all the previous years combined. Years of work and non-recurring costs spent on art and books may finally create a significant (mostly) passive income. Walking Thinking Drinking Across Scotland The marketing does require some tending. The classes hold promise. Next month’s Self-Publishing Weekend Workshop could do very well, and be a lot of fun. The business piece that has the greatest impact so far has been the consulting, a task I truly enjoy. An extra full-day client or two per month and my fortunes improve dramatically.

Plan C – Get A Job
Without a doubt, a good job that compensates me for my skills, talents, and experience would make many money problems go away quickly. My old job at a current salary would get me out of my mortgage issues within two or three months, and completely out of debt within two or three months after that. Within a year, I’d even be able to start into the long list of delayed repairs and upgrades. Even a moderate job would greatly ease those issues. I’ve applied to hundreds of jobs for everything from receptionist to engineer to manager – and have applied around the world. Yes, he will travel! The next phone call or email may be that pleasant positive response: a job I enjoy that pays me well now. How about a nice program manager job in New Zealand? Month 18 of the job search went by. The Month 19 report is coming up soon. Let’s have it include some very good news and the close of the series.

There’s even a new plan Plan B/C – Consultant turns into Employee
One of my clients, The History of Computing for Learning in Education Virtual Museum (HCLE), has granted me the resume line, “Interim Program Manager”. I started as a consultant helping prepare a program plan and produce funding proposals. If the funding comes through, the “Interim” may be replaced with an unwritten “Part-Time”. At least my work would switch from invoices and 1099s to paychecks and W-2s. That will take care of about half of my bills, which is appropriate for a half-time job. Look for the indiegogo campaign, coming soon – and you are welcome to donate privately as well.

Plan D – Sell My Home
On the market since May 2012, fewer than six realtor visits, price dropped from $291,000 to $275,000 to $269,000 – and an expectation that the foreclosure notice will be delivered as early as tomorrow (even though that’s a Sunday). Sell it and I am out of debt! and wandering around Whidbey looking for a room to rent.
Home For Sale

Plan E – ?
Variations on all of the above, including movies, collaborations, winning the lottery, and other windfalls. I always leave that door open.

The odds that all of those plans will succeed is small. The odds that they would all fail is probably equally small, yet here I am. The most likely scenario is that some fail, some succeed, and I enjoy a comfortably frugal life. I’ve had enough of the failures. Time for the successes.

A few times a week, someone who wants to help, asks me to review the entire list without knowing it. They ask me to gnaw on the issue. Surely there’s something I’ve overlooked.

  • Have I considered this or that business strategy? I haven’t tried everything, mostly because there are only 24 hours in a day, and even with only taking one day off every few weeks and typically working until 8pm, I can’t try everything everyone has suggested.
  • Surely I haven’t tried this or that job search technique. Possibly, but eighteen months of trying produced lots of variations.
  • Surely I’ve tried this or that approach to selling my house. This isn’t the first time I’ve sold a house, and I’m sure the biggest issue has been timing and price – and the price is down and the market is rising.

Throughout the conversation I must maintain my optimism for my self survival. They are reviewing everything I’ve done and asking for proof that I tried and proof that it didn’t work. It becomes a litany of failure which is depressing. It is like gnawing on that rock. For some, the review is a search for flaws because we have sincere beliefs that things like optimism, honesty, hard work, earnest consideration, and perseverance will succeed. My apparent lack of success threatens those assumptions. This can be particularly true of coaches and consultants. My situation is challenging what many preach, and what some get paid to espouse. Challenges to fundamental beliefs are usually scary.

Trust me, at the start I thought about this stuff every hour, not just when someone called. Then I realized that nothing had changed since the last time I worked through the logic, considered the options, sketched the scenarios. I realized my mind was repeating work it had already done, wouldn’t make progress until something changed, was wasting time, and depressing me too. I realized I was mentally gnawing on a rock. No wonder I was getting headaches.

Spit out the rock. The rock is the past and it can’t be changed.

The future is less rigid. The future is possibility based on the present. The present is substantial and every moment can be changed to alter the future. A lot of guessing is involved. Hopefully, maturity, experience, and judgment help properly wield the tools of skills and talents. It isn’t certain, yet chewing on something malleable is certainly healthier than gnawing on a rock.

DSC_4058

Fiddleheads are edible, right?

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Slow Disaster Preparedness

Posted on March 13, 2013 by Tom Trimbath

Who came up with the word, “preparedness”? Preparations should be good enough. Regardless, one of the signs of adult responsibility is being prepared for disasters. FEMA and the Red Cross suggest each of us having days of supplies and a list of emergency gear for unexpected emergencies. It is easy to plan and prepare for quick catastrophes; especially, if those catastrophes never happen and those preparations aren’t tested. The slower the disaster, the harder it is to generate enthusiasm for the task of preparation; and, the longer the trial that tests our plans. As I type this I also realize that the reverse is true.

Wham! I live in an earthquake zone. My home is over one of the busiest faults in Washington State, a geological region that gets fewer but much bigger quakes the California.

Looks sweet, and the fault goes under that point of land.

Looks sweet, and the fault goes under that point of land – and the tsunamis sweep past it and up the bay.

Subduction zones do that. Without warning and within seconds the ground can raise or lower a dozen feet or more. It’s happened before. It will happen again. It is the same situation that caused devastation in Indonesia and Fukushima. There’s no warning, so everyone is recommended to keep those days of supplies at home, and to keep an earthquake kit in the car. Bridge failures, of even just the worry about them, are enough to stop traffic and strand people. Make sure you have good walking shoes.

Tsunamis happen. There’s a bit of warning. If one happens because of a local earthquake, then the quake should be the biggest alarm bell rung as warning. Drive around Whidbey and find plenty of Tsunami Warning Zone signs. A tsunami in my neighboring Cultus Bay could wash away the only road leading to hundreds of homes. Ah, but there’s an informal plan for that. I suspect we’d find some way to wind up and down through private driveways and across large estates if the damage lasted too long. The main preparation, if you’re worried about waves, is don’t live at sea level.

Within a few minutes walk or drive I can see three volcanoes. They give a bit more warning. Make sure there are air filters for people and the cars. Hope the highways and railroads don’t get blocked by ash in the mountain passes. Food might be scarce in that case. Of course, earthquakes could ruin that avenue of food too.

The most warning we get are from the same hazards experienced worldwide: storms. Thanks to satellites, computers, and meteorologists we get days of warning. Their accuracy isn’t 100%, but weather forecasting is far more accurate than earthquake, tsunami, and volcano predictions. It’s because of storms that I have plenty of flashlights and batteries, canned food, candles, warm blankets, firewood, bottled water, and such that just happen to be useful for the other disasters. (I think that’s an excellent excuse to maintain stores of wine and cheese.)

I could be quite proud of myself for my preparations. I even carry enough gear in my car to chop through downed trees, drive through deep snow, and camp in my car if necessary.

The planning can actually be entertaining. If this happens, I’ll use it as an opportunity to do that. Resourcefulness gets tested. I think that’s one reason survivalists can get so involved in preparations; there’s a lot of opportunity for resourcefulness, which is another expression of creativity.

Frugality is a natural preparation for necessary resourcefulness. The appreciation of a thing’s value opens a lot of potential.

The harder disasters are the ones with the least warning. Personal illnesses and financial misfortune can encroach into lives gradually. Optimism sometimes wins and situations improve before the worst occurs. Hopefully, optimism doesn’t delay remedies. Pessimism can inspire immediate action, but over-reacting can cause problems and even invent non-existent ones. Hypochrondia and paranoia happen. Guessing at the right pace of response is never a sure thing. That’s why it is to plan for old age and retirement. Look at global warming and the questionable financial system and realize that the same thing happens on a grander scale. Unfortunately, global crises happen so slowly that urgency doesn’t arise until damage is done.

I plan a lot; not just for geological and meteorological disasters. I had plenty of plans for my investments and my life. The current assessment of those plans is insufficient to appease the mortgage company and my expectations. Simply said, Plans A, B, C, and D haven’t worked well enough. (For a primer on my Plans, read Backup Plans.) My home, house, mortgage will probably go into foreclosure within the next week. Even consulting with agents and a lawyer hasn’t revealed what I should plan for. Do I lose my home in weeks, months, or years?

Of course, I plan to pay my bills, my debts, and fund my future. That’s why I am actively executing Plans A, B, C, and D. Working on so many plans is also why I don’t get out much. The currently insufficient performance is also why I buy lottery tickets.

Winning the lottery would be as sudden as an earthquake, but far more welcome. Selling my house would be more like the positive (though bittersweet) version of a tsunami. Home For Sale A recovered stock portfolio would be more like a welcome storm. Getting a good job, or my business becoming profitable enough for me to live comfortably would be more like the long term systemic plans – wait – they would almost exactly overlap those examples of retirement planning I mentioned above.

The last few weeks have been a challenging turmoil of bad news with threads of good news. Money owed to me is being paid back. Reciprocal sales are causing money to go from person to person and back to person again with goods and services exchanged in the process. Except for that more than pesky foreclosure, life is improving. And maybe that bit of life will improve too. I’ve made many preparations. Now they are being tested, slowly.

But, really, all debates aside, winning the lottery of gaining some other windfall would be so nice. Who knows? I might get to tell that story too. There’s probably no way to prepare for that one, though.

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