Early Harvests

It is harvest time, a little early for harvest festivals, but gardeners are already trying to cook, freeze, can, dry, or give away crops that are coming in faster than they can eat them. That’s a good year. In lean years, harvesting is a reminder that optimism doesn’t always succeed. Good years or bad, harvesting has to happen because people have to eat. I sold stock today. It was an early harvest, but I’ve got bills to pay.

For everyone else on Whidbey, growing veggies seems to be natural. For me, the slugs and bunnies beat me to any harvest. My apple trees were looking good – until the deer cleared the fence and ate all of the leaves they could reach.

Silly human. I scoff at your fencing.

Silly human. I scoff at your fencing.

Two of the three trees are young and short and lost almost every leaf. From three trees I can find one apple. Fortunately, my friends are better gardeners. Ten months of rain, a delayed start to the growing season, then two months of long, dry days. The corn may not be knee high by the Fourth of July, but there’s a bounty here eventually.

On the south half of Whidbey, which has fewer folks than some neighborhoods in Seattle, there are uncounted U-pic fields, farm stands, CSA‘s, and at least five farmers’ markets. Thursday (Clinton), Friday (Langley), Saturday (Bayview), and double-header Sunday (Tilth and Greenbank Farm) mean lots of fresh produce. Langley Second Street Market 060713 The local food bank even has its own garden, and a crew called the Gleeful Gleaners. The Gleaners harvest the fruits from neglected orchards or trees producing more than the owner can handle. The food bank benefits, and so do the gleaners and the land owners. I know their work from their gleaning of the apple trees on the land trust property I stewardWCLT - Hammons Tomorrow night I’ll help them at another site, and get to take some home too.

I’ve seen bountiful harvests in the stock market. The last two years have been lean for my portfolio, even as the market has recovered. The previous years were better for my portfolio, even as the market struggled. My portfolio is a bit of a micro-climate. Stocks in small companies are affected by the market, but the stronger effect is their own progress. That’s at least true in a rational market. As I’ve written before, I think small companies are trying to survive an irrational market even as the big companies drive the indices higher. I suspect the Fed quantitative easing and corporate profits are large sums of money that must find large roosts. Financial institutions make their lives easy by buying chunks of a few large companies instead of managing hundreds of smaller positions. Of course, the money could move around instead of roosting, in which case there would be even more purchasing and hiring going on; but hey, if the corporate finance officers can make more money in the market that’s where they’ll put the money.

Retirement is a concept that is being redefined regardless of how much we treat it as a fixed and necessary goal. For a variety of reasons, primarily strategic investing and frugal living, I was able to semi-retire early at 38. I knew it was a semi-retirement because a lot can happen in the decades of a normal lifespan following the first 38 years. Being the optimist and being frugal, I considered it an acceptable risk to step away from corporate work because the portfolio was large and growing. Being a realist, I also recognized the semi- part of that retirement and consequently worked at various aspects of my business these last 16 years. First karate, then writing, then photography, then teaching, and now my favorite – consulting.

Harvested - from Twelve Months at Cultus Bay

Harvested – from Twelve Months at Cultus Bay

It wasn’t until this year that my business grew enough to pay any of my bills. It has been years of building a foundation of work, connections, inventory, and on-the-job training in being a sole-proprietor and entrepreneur. I effectively was finding fertile ground, clearing it, and planting test crops. Every harvest of profits went back into improving the possibilities. With only a general strategy of providing a backup plan, I investigated opportunities as they volunteered. Even before I was hit by my Triple Whammy I’d started devoting more time to the business. I’ve continued to hope to harvest a healthy portfolio, but the stocks languish far below my estimates of their values. Now, I’m working seven days a week (as per my Rule of 7) with days off by necessity rather than choice. This feels like a version of the end of the Dust Bowl when dust storms and drought are somewhat related, continue to create a challenge, and yet may be about to abate.

My business is up 70% from last year, and last year was a record. At this rate, my business will cover my bills, including the mortgage, sometime in 2015. In the meantime, I’ve got bills to pay and have run into a cash flow squeeze. The only way to get through is to sell some stock (which is unfortunately coming out of my IRA). The good news about individual stocks is that as cash flow turns positive, I’ll be able to buy that stock back again – as long as it hasn’t jumped in the meantime.

Gardeners and farmers are familiar with the race between growing crops, changing weather, and ravening beasts. Grow quick. Hope for good weather. Fight back the hordes. I’m in a race as well. The business is growing and some of my stocks have possible significant near-term catalysts. The investing climate is incredibly uncertain between signs of a recovery and large cash hordes, while systemic failings in macro-economics are causes for concern. In the meantime, the next pre-foreclosure meeting is scheduled for October, followed by its scheduled events that can only be deterred by sufficient funds. Okay magic beans, grow, now!

Retirement planning can appear to be a set of spreadsheets that order a financial life. Retirement realities are that things can go better or worse than expected. I was so close to being debt-free as little as three years ago. Then the perfect storm hit. Storms happen, and that’s why gardeners and investors need to be flexible, have backup plans, and be tending fields and opportunities even if they may never be needed. It isn’t easy to harvest something early; especially, when you think it can grow much more if left alone. But I hope to replant. I hope for better weather. And I hope healthy harvests happen in time. I see it all around me. I know it happens.

Early apples and plums? Hmm, fruits can become desserts. I guess early harvests can actually be tasty.

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Odd Earnings News

That certainly didn’t go the way I expected. Sports have their seasons and so do corporations. Four times a year corporations officially announce their quarterly results. It is called the “earnings season”, but the official verbiage usually says “results” because “earnings” may not exist. Of the companies I follow (see my semi-annual exercise) all have had news. The reactions have been so surprising that I can’t convince myself of what my original expectations were. In the short term, stock investing can be a guessing game. In the long term, surprises should balance out and risk and guessing become less important. In the midst of my financial horse race, I could greatly benefit from good news and patience.

Before the slide that has been my portfolio since the Triple Whammy, my portfolio was diversified. At one point I had about a dozen stocks, which limited my exposure to losses from bad news from any one. Silly me. Almost seven years ago I “diversified” by selling some stock to make a large down payment on some real estate, my house. Another stock or two left the pack as I paid bills. Fortunately, just as my portfolio shrunk, one of my investments, Dendreon (DNDN) received FDA approval for a cancer vaccine. Yes! Then DNDN took part in the Triple Whammy, and I had to grudgingly sell it and a couple other stocks while I tried to find a job (unsuccessful so far) and sell my house (unsuccessful so far). Now, my portfolio has less than a half dozen stocks. Well, at least it is easier to track fewer positions.

I think this view is priceless, or $264,500.

I think this view is priceless, or $264,500.

With my semi-annual exercise in mind (when I review my investments), I expected:

  • AMSC to do nothing until the Chinese government decided what to do with Sinovel’s acquisition of AMSC’s intellectual property,
  • GERN to do nothing because they are only in phase two clinical trials, and using Dendreon as a guide suggests a stagnant stock for another year or two,
  • GIG should announce good news, and maybe finally get recognized for their market capture of a high-tech need,
  • MVIS could announce stellar news because they’ve already mentioned that five major customers will eventually announce major products
  • and,
  • RSOL might do well or not because, despite the need for renewable power, they are treated more as a construction firm or as a cousin of Solyndra.

Well, it didn’t go that way at all.

  • AMSC: Okay, I got this one right. They did have a spike when a US court ruled in their favor, but nothing to reflect the size of the potential settlement from China.
  • GERN: Biotech financials are almost moot because they all must spend immense amounts of cash to prove their drugs and please the FDA. But, GERN spiked because someone liked their phase two data well enough to suggest a 150% price appreciation.
  • GIG: GigOptix does have 50% of a high-end, and hopefully high profit margin, industry, yet the stock went nowhere because sales barely budged. But they did sneak in a possibility of working on consumer electronics. Hmm.
  • MVIS: MicroVision, the company that can make my mortgage company happy, managed to announce – nothing really. Yes, revenues were up and costs were down, but the numbers are small relative to what investors expect from a successful product.
  • RSOL: Real Goods, which is not stirring up any excitement, suddenly decided to merge with another company, and the stock spiked.

At one point on Friday, my portfolio was up by about one month’s non-mortgage living expenses. That’s encouraging.

I guessed wrong about what would move and what wouldn’t, but those were short term guesses. I continue to trust my semi-annual exercise results which estimate my portfolio’s value at several times above its current value. I could see results like Friday’s for months and just get back to what I consider a nominal, conservative valuation of my portfolio. That potential puts each day’s efforts into perspective because my average day’s income covers about a half a day’s expenses. Of course, I expect that to change too. Business is up, and the more consulting I do (got a project you want help with?), and the more passive income I receive from books and photos brings me closer to paying my bills without having to sell stocks.

my most recent sale

my most recent sale

Fortunately, I haven’t had to sell any stocks this year. I haven’t paid the mortgage either. Unfortunately, I might have to sell some this month, which would decrease my diversification. I almost sold some GERN a few days ago, and am glad I exercised a bit more patience. Friday’s impact on my GERN holding wouldn’t make much of difference in my bills. It is an encouragement to give GERN, and the others, a bit more patience.

Investing in individual stocks requires a high risk tolerance (or fatalism or good luck), patience, and a bit of research. Even with diversification and a Long Term Buy and Hold strategy, bad luck can coincide.

Investing in mutual funds is apparently easier, yet I don’t do that. I don’t do that because, as odd as individual stocks can be, mutual funds are nothing but dozens or hundreds of individual stocks. The task isn’t simpler. The task is so phenomenally complex that it is easier to ignore the complexity and slap on a label of simplicity.

My investments may be doing poorly, but at least I have an idea of why, and I have an idea of what they may be worth. Buy low. Sell high. Buy small companies. Sell when they become big companies.

As a measure of the irrationality of the market:

  • the company furthest from making money has the largest market cap (GERN),
  • the company with the highest revenues is three times smaller (RSOL),
  • the company with the next smallest price-to-sales has the smallest market cap (GIG), and
  • the company with the greatest present-value-of-future-revenues has the next smallest market cap.

A bit more patience, the right good news, and the results will turn into earnings and income.

By the way, in case you don’t recall, the stock I sold to buy my house is now up more than four-fold since then (FFIV); and Dendreon (DNDN), despite potentially revolutionizing cancer care, has managed to decrease sales and implode their stock price. It’s all so odd.

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Greener Pastures

“The grass is always greener on the other side of the fence.” That’s advice we give to convince someone to not change for the sake of change. I’m no rancher, but I suspect that if you leave a horse in one pasture long enough the grass will be gone and any other pasture is worth the move. Sometimes change is the answer. Deciding what to write about was tougher than usual today because almost everything that is happening is waiting for a change. In the meantime, we paw our pens, waiting for the gate to open. A lot of my friends that feel penned in know their gates are about to open. It will be fun watching the herd run.

A $425,000,000 Powerball lottery is not the main change most are waiting for, because I suspect very few of my friends will play such long odds. I and a few others do. Constrained finances are probably a main cause of people feeling hobbled. I can attest to the feeling of entrapment when nothing seems to be working enough to make enough. The entrapment is internal and abstract, so it should be easy to dispel; but if shifting such a mindset was easy then enlightenment would be universal as we all simply “saw beyond the illusion” or “embraced the grace within.” Counselors, coaches, and therapists earn substantial livings helping people struggle with even tangential aspects of such concepts. A two dollar ticket is much cheaper and gives the mind an excuse to see beyond the gate. Besides, as entertainment, the effects last longer than a movie. And eventually, someone will win.

Of all the plans for changes I’ve heard, all require far less than a lottery jackpot. Six months of living expenses and a reasonable chance of making a sustainable income are sufficient. Unfortunately, the last few years have diminished most of those savings and launching into new careers has a recent history of low chances of success. And yet, people are moving.

The most public move is from a friend who made a house on wheels. Angela Ramseyer, tiny house builder extraordinaire, might be selling her house, moving from Whidbey to Portland, and immersing herself in the growing micro-mansion industry. She’s made such a move before. She can do so again. Cabin by Angela

A couple I know have felt locked in place for years, even as they dream of moving east (it’s hard to move farther west from here) to live a more unrestrained, frugal lifestyle that probably involves organic, sustainable farming, online sales, and a lot more quiet and freedom. Seattle’s housing market is bubbling. Fix up the house, sell the business, and move – but first fix the kitchen and take the time to figure out how to make such a change.

One of my friends who works retail is set on NYC. Like any small community, Whidbey is known for having limited social (dating) and job options. Work retail here, maybe get by, and do so within a crowd of friends but no partner; or move to New York City. Evidently, they have retail there too, may appreciate a person with manners (or maybe not depending on the stereotype), and there may even be more than a dozen or so people to date. (Wasn’t there a show about sex in that city?) That change may require no more than a deep breath and a fast jump.

A close friend dropped by my office here in downtown Langley, center of coffeeshops and bookstores, and threatened to conduct an intervention. UBCC 070613 “Isn’t it obvious that you should move off the island? Here you may, may, sustain a lifestyle. Anywhere else you may thrive!” Well, yep. Makes sense to me. As I’ve said before, without the house, I’m able to move almost anywhere. I’ve even applied for international jobs. Even a move as small as getting back onto the mainland may suffice. Evidently, some employers won’t hire people from the islands because of the ferry interruptions. Ah, but you see, I actually like and love where I am. (One advisor advised me to visualize the zip code I wanted to live within. Duh. I’m already there.)

November Sunset - Twelve Months at Cultus Bay

November Sunset – Twelve Months at Cultus Bay

Change for the sake of change is ill-advised. One saying I learned from karate is, “Do not move unless it is to your advantage to do so. Then move without hesitation.” Plans must accommodate change. We demonstrate wisdom when we decide whether the change is based on need, or whim, or want, or habit.

Many of the world’s problems can be traced to intransigent attitudes, archaic policies, and anachronistic organizations. Our society gets into ruts, just like we do. Fixed financial plans, reliance on conventional systems, and unedited aspirations can lead to dead-ends. I’ve followed an investment strategy that relied on rational markets and aimed myself at a particular lifestyle, but my current situation has encouraged me to rethink my strategy, question how much rational thought remains in the market, and revise my lifestyle expectations. If the world decides to change, then I can change again.

I’ve definitely been churning up this pasture. Trying to get a job, putting my house on the market, growing my business have all been efforts to affect change. I’ve also been staying in this pasture. The interruption in my strategy may be temporary. One of the best ways to be found is to stay in one place. And I have yet to identify an advantage to moving that is greater than the advantages to staying.

It is August 7th. Tomorrow MicroVision announces earnings. The expectations are so low that even the discussion boards are quiet. And yet many of us have inferred that the company’s long delayed success will be initiated with news in the second half of 2013. (Go back to Good News Sooner Please for a description of that possible upside.) When MicroVision announces sufficiently positive news, the grass under my feet will grow faster than any nearby pasture – unless, of course, that other pasture is winning the Powerball jackpot in which case it won’t be grass growing under my feet but forests.

What are the chances that all of that will happen? Understandably small. What are the chances that none of it will happen? I suspect even smaller. For now, it is time to get back to tending my pasture and checking over the fence whenever I get the chance.

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Triple Whammy Second Anniversary

Some anniversaries aren’t celebrated, but can be recognized. Two years ago I felt like I was hit by a Triple Whammy. As I said then, “my semi-sustainable lifestyle is at least temporarily threatened“. I re-read that post and am pondering the nature of the word “temporary”. Throughout these two years the potential for my closing thought from that blog continues. “I give the universe the opportunity to positively amaze me.” The pessimist says it won’t. The optimist says that every day of delay increases the positivity of the eventual amazement. Now would be a good time, and not just for me.

The last two years have made real a perspective I understood as an abstraction. Having less than enough is tough. That’s a major understatement. Many of life’s crises are traumatic and dynamic. Not having enough isn’t as dynamic but it is a moment-by-moment reminder that you can’t pay the entry fee to participate in our society. As I have found myself more frequently standing outside the gates of opportunities, I’ve been amazed to see the crowd of remarkable people who’ve been there for years. My attitude has gone from, “We really ought to do something about people who’ve been hit by misfortune” to “Who do we think we are if we’re not helping those who’ve been hit by misfortune?” Many of our “greatest nation” cliches are amazingly hollow; especially, when compared to “lesser” countries that are far smaller.

A friend asked the most frequent question yet again. “How are you doing? No, really. How are you doing?” My first quip of a response didn’t appease. This friend actually is one of the few that I’ll tell the fuller story to, but being asked in the middle of the grocery store wasn’t the place for me to launch into the real response. How am I doing? Any given day I encounter a wider range of emotions than I could when I had “enough”. I’m somewhat practiced with words, and I can’t convey the radically different experience. Demonstrating it through dance might succeed, but bouncing off the rutabagas would probably curtail my creative expression.

My reason for writing this is not to belabor my situation, but to illuminate what can happen to any of us. I know many who have lost much more; they’re just not as likely to talk about it. Shame, embarrassment, and truth live behind many facades.

My reason for writing this is also to emphasize the possibilities. While our society no longer provides enough safety nets for its citizens, the American form of government continues to provide opportunity and empowerment.

Chronicling this experience may be the best way to illustrate how our society, government, and civilization actually work.

For brevity, those who don’t want to hear the rest of the downside can skip ahead a paragraph. For completeness in my chronicling, welcome to the improbable litany of the last two years. A little more than two years ago, AMSC was a major portion of my portfolio, and had good reason to rise. They profit from alternative energies and from improving our power infrastructure – until their largest customer apparently stole AMSC’s intellectual property and cancelled their orders. AMSC dropped from over $40 to under $3. Wham. Dendreon (DNDN) looked like it would make up the difference because their cancer vaccine was approved and working better than expected medically; but, the company didn’t meet Wall Street’s expectations. The ~40% drop in DNDN was a bigger whammy. A stock that I thought would rise $22 dropped $22 and continued to fall. Instead of being out of debt, I found myself selling a decreasing stock from a diminishing portfolio, even as the treatment improved. I started looking for a job that month, August 2011. I thought the stock would recover quickly, and therefore put a few extra bills on credit, which became the stereotypical trap. I sold almost all of my non-IRA stock to pay bills, and then dipped into my IRA. I put my house on the market because it was the most likely source of equity, according to zillow.com. With my non-IRA stocks almost all gone, I finally quit paying the mortgage when the last of the DNDN sold out of my IRA. That was in the fall of 2012. My mortgager is not pleased. The third part of the whammy was actually a flounder. The whammy was the emotional hit I took when I realized that MicroVision (MVIS) wasn’t going to have their self-proclaimed “Super Bowl year” in 2011, 2012, (2013?). MVIS continues to languish at about a quarter of what it was then, which was also a drop from – well – much higher. While all of this was going on I ramped up my existing business. My Rule of 7 applied and eventually I was working seven days a week finishing my book about Scotland, completing a five-year photo essay of Whidbey Island, teaching classes, consulting with clients, and doing whatever I could to make money. My portfolio is about a tenth of what it was. My house has had less then six buyers even visit it in the year that it’s been on the market. I’ve only had one job interview for a full-time professional job, despite two years of applying. My pantry and freezer have a lot of empty space, and I’ve even been able to clear out a room because I’ve been selling my stuff. Being a bit discouraged shouldn’t be much of a surprise, and if you actually read through this entire paragraph I applaud your perseverance.

Here’s the upside. Things are looking better. My business is up 70% from last year. (Hi, want help with your projects? An hour or two with me may save you weeks or months.) Book sales are up, thanks to Walking Thinking Drinking Across ScotlandWalking Thinking Drinking Across Scotland Photo sales are up, thanks to my new online galleries (Gratitude Gallery

and Fine Art America). At this rate, my business will be able to pay my bills in 2015, not soon enough, but not bad either. The Puget Sound housing market is improving. Some of the work I’m doing for clients could turn into more hours, better pay, or even full time employment. My name recognition is high, and so many people have endorsed me on LinkedIn that I’ve maxed out the number of talents I’m allowed to display. And, despite the lack of DNDN, the companies in my portfolio have progressed to the point that even a return to conservative valuations will provide me years of living expenses. If companies like MicroVision succeed and trade at a premium my portfolio will provide decades of living expenses.

Two years is a long time (and so is this post). I wonder how much longer all of this can go on.

There are no guarantees. The elements within my situation are running at about the same pace. I’m living a race in which I am largely a spectator because most of the entrants are out of my control. Without guarantees, I don’t know which happens first: running out of money, or returning to comfortably enough.

The lack of control increases the frustration. One criterion for evaluating the functionality of a workplace is whether the people with responsibility are also given the appropriate authority, and whether people with authority also carry responsibility. Authority without responsibility is the life of the spoiled child. Responsibility without authority is the life of the scapegoat. Our treatment of the misfortunate is more the latter, and evident in the news. Excessive executive compensation in the midst of atrocious performance is an example of the former. What I look forward to is a return to that middle ground, which also embodied our stereotypical American spirit: a more rational world where value is valued, and that value reflects a person’s effort and also the fact that they are a person.

Stay tuned, and thanks for reading. Really, we’re getting to the good stuff, honest. (I hope, I hope, I hope.)

Destiny Is Hidden

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Looking Fine-ish

It looks fine from here. The rich are getting richer. Those with jobs and businesses are getting busier, and seem to have more discretionary cash. And, of the rest that aren’t in hiding – well, smiles look good. Even my septic tank looks good, but it is buried. But the septic alarm went off though, so later today I’ll find out if looks are deceiving. My computer looks good, considering the use it gets and its age. But it let out a chirp and froze for a while a couple of days ago, so I’m backing it up as I type. My future looks fine when I am feeling optimistic, but chirps and alarms and uncertainties may mean I’ll sell some stock, giving up a slice of future potential to make things look a little better in the present. That’s a dangerous game. But there may be a way out.

Langley looks good. (Want a quick tour? Watch our video: Two Guys Walk Around Langley)  Millionaires walk by. Billionaires reportedly drop in while visiting another of their houses. This is a nice town for relaxing. From my perch, high on the second floor of the Giraffe Building, I get to watch enough exotic cars roll by that Ferraris aren’t worth mentioning. It looks so fine that a couple I talked to thought everyone here was wealthy, or at least comfortably employed. That’s an image most tourist towns want to portray, and in Langley’s case, enough of it is true to encourage people to move here.
Langley, WA July 2013

Of course looks can be deceiving. We use that phrase so much that I wonder why it exists. Evidently, we must continually remind ourselves that what we see isn’t always real.

One of the tricks to enjoying frugal living is to live frugally by choice instead of by necessity. Living frugally by necessity can still be enjoyable, but it isn’t as relaxing because it is paired with caution, doubt, and maybe a fair share of worry. I’ve always lived frugally, even when I didn’t know I was doing it. A frugal lifestyle looks cheap from the outside, but the insides are buttresses of self-defined and reinforced values. Many have commented on my apparent style and ease as I pass through my financial turmoil. Evidently, my facade is fine. The interior is doing well enough too, but there are days when I’m surprised the turmoil doesn’t poke through.

I see the wealth that extends into the middle class. It isn’t just millionaires visiting the coffeeshops and stores. It’s harder to find parking. Unemployment is down. Consumer spending is up. Typically, more people making money means more money being spent which means more people making money – which is the upward spiral looked for in a recovery. It looks fine, and may even be fine.

It is too easy for me to see the concerns though. My diminished financial position has provided me yet another perspective. The wealth and income inequities do not seem to be resolving themselves. Discretionary income may be returning, but many are working from less stable foundations. They’ve been through foreclosures, bankruptcies, or have spent their way through home equity, credit limits, and now their IRAs. The increased consumer spending may be temporary and a reflection of years of pent-up demand.

A world-traveling friend called for a friendly chat. I was so impressed with what he’s been doing, especially, because I know a few years ago he was in need of a financial fix. He stayed positive, gradually built his business, and is enjoying the upward spiral of people asking him to do more good work because they’ve seen him doing so much good work. Now, if they’d only pay him what he is truly worth. And, maybe they will as his upward spiral continues. In the meantime, he looks like things are fine, or fine-ish.

As I check around with my friends, frequently as they check in on me, I continue to find increased busyness. The businesses though, aren’t necessarily seeing increased profits. Frequently they are at capacity limits. To truly make more they have to hire more or invest more, but those hurdles are costly risks prior to becoming possible rewards.

Rarely do I hear anyone describe their job or their business as a path to comfort. One honestly laughed when I asked if she could imagine her business becoming profitable; and then she caught herself as she realized that profitability shouldn’t be so foreign a concept. People do dream of comfort but I notice their hopes live within two main scenarios: win the lottery, of find some way to become self-sufficient. Self-sufficiency takes more work, but has better odds. If we lived in the era of homesteading many of my friends would be heading out to the territory, wherever that may be. Instead, many of them are building tiny houses or creating garden farms.

I consider myself lucky. My business is picking up. I’m being considered for more substantial, and profitable, assignments. (Got a project you need help planning or some choices you need to sort through? It is fun helping creative people create.) My portfolio is closer to realizing its potential. (Come on MVIS.) The housing market is improving. (My house is still for sale.) Home For Sale Yet, at this stage in the race with financial sustainability I may have to sell some stock to pay for foreclosure mediation, pumping the septic tank, and replacing the rear shocks in the truck.

I’d hoped that here, at the end of July, there’d be news that I got “the call” for the right job or assignment, or that one of my investments would finally make their major celebratory announcement. I look forward to writing that post. In the meantime, the computer went chirp. The septic alarm went squawk. And my checking account goes squeak because right now it can’t handle a new septic system or a new computer.

But stay tuned. The day isn’t over yet. Today is Wednesday, July 31, 2013. The Powerball jackpot is estimated to be $235,000,000. The drawing is tonight. Even the Washington State lottery is up to $2,500,000. I have tickets for both. Either will suffice. And in our conversations, those who are buying tickets aren’t doing it for appearances. They’re doing it as a hope for comfort and a chance at self-sufficiency. We’re also doing it as entertainment. A movie costs $10 and lasts a couple of hours. A lottery ticket costs $1 or $2 and it allows days of dreams, at least. At least.

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Planning For Unexpected Futures

Well, that didn’t turn out the way I expected, and the biggest issue was probably my expectation. Silly me, thinking I had some control over my life. I held a self-publishing class and workshop today, and everyone cancelled; but another person unexpectedly showed up, we had a strategy session for his business, and my business set a record. If – when – I succeed, it may be in unexpected ways. In which case, does it make any sense to plan for, or work at anything? Maybe I should work out a plan for that.

Self-publishing changed dramatically about the time someone noticed that high-speed laser and high-speed inkjet printers were just about as good as the average printing press. Back around 2000 a new type of printing enabled a new type of publishing. Print-on-demand printing enabled what I call Modern Self-Publishing. Load a couple of files into a computer. Print the insides. Print the cover. Glue the two together. Only print as many as are needed. Print one at a time just in time instead of printing a few thousand and hoping they sell before something ruins the inventory. Some ingenious person realized that most of the sales were online, therefore coming from people with computers, in which case skip the printer and just sell them the files. Ebooks were born. Thanks to a series of rejection letters, I was in the first wave of writers to use the news technologies. On average, since 2002, I’ve published one book per year.
Walking Thinking Drinking Across Scotland Twelve Months At Double Bluff on blurb

The publishing industry is undergoing a revolution as dramatic as the ones that hit the movie and music industries. Digital technologies decentralize authority and control. Fears of unencumbered shoddy work call the traditionalists to guard the gates. Empowered artists exercise the new technologies to go up, under, through, or totally ignore the gates, the walls, and the old fortresses. Hollywood exists. Record companies exist. Publishing houses exist. But they no longer hold the majority of the control. The majority of the control is held by unorganized crowds of individuals that do not require consensus. Some work is shoddy, from a certain perspective; but purer voices and unheralded talents are also unleashed.

I’ve watched the industry go from scoffing at a version of self-publishing that accounted for a few percent of the total, to an industry that sees the new technology producing more than the establishment. The industry is finally responding by using the same technology and buying the competition, but the momentum is too great and the change can’t be controlled or denied.

In some ways I’m an early adopter. I enjoy watching trends, and have used that habit as a basis for investing. (Read my book, Dream. Invest. Live. for details.) Dream. Invest. Live. That worked well until deregulation and the Great Recession. It may yet prove itself again because everything is temporary, including our financial environment and economy. My style of investing is called Long Term Buy and Hold. (LTBH). I didn’t make it up. I just use it. It is the anti-thesis of day-trading. My most encouraging investments were started over a decade ago. They are due.

I watch trends and I try to guess which way they’ll go, but I know they’ll take directions I can’t predict. New ideas rarely play by the old rules, and adaptation requires understanding the new more than the old because the old eventually passes away.

I expected to teach a class today, and run a workshop too. People signed up. Everyone cancelled. Maybe it’s the Sun’s fault. Yet, when my unexpected client walked in, he brought with him a conundrum that didn’t exactly fit with the class; but it did fit in nicely with a one-on-one strategy session, something I enjoy. A couple of hours later we were done, he had a plan, and I had a check. That check put my business over the top. As of that check, my business has already made more this year than it did on all of 2012. Hallelujah! At this rate, my business revenues are growing at 70% during a year when my expenses are down. At that rate, my business will be able to pay me more than enough by 2015. I’ll enjoy that but the mortgage company may not applaud that timing.

New ideas and changes to plans happen more rapidly than many can react. A retirement plan, honed for years, must be reassessed regularly as life, investments, and the world changes. (Watch Mike Brady’s videos for good descriptions of how that can be done.) My plan fell apart (at least apparently temporarily) within a few months two years ago. In perfect hindsight, an even quicker reaction would have meant a more comfortable present. That’s always the case. What I am glad about, despite my situation, is that my plan is flexible and that it had more than one element. Currently I am trying to sell my home, get a job, grow my business, and encourage my investments. I can develop plans based on a variety of scenarios, but it isn’t prudent to act until changes reveal themselves.

I planned to teach a class about publishing and ended up helping develop a business strategy. I didn’t plan for the unexpected, but I prepared myself so I could react.

Some indications are that the economy is returning to a new normal. Other indications are that the system’s oscillations are increasing and may lead to a collapse, whatever that may be. Planning for only one outcome produces a plan with poor odds of success.

Instead, I plan for long term goals and targets, and regularly adjust. I prefer to adjust at a slow and rational pace, something that works well with long afternoons considering possibilities while taking notes and sipping wine. Lately my plans are a bit rushed and flavored with spiced vodka and hope and energy.Cultus Drive deck and drink

There is great uncertainty in the world. A few of us are holding informal think tank sessions to sort through what we may do. I know we won’t come up with one answer. I want to keep my house, which I may do if finances return to normal soon enough. In some scenarios I lose my home and don’t have enough income to reach the poverty line, in which case finding a room with an understanding landlord would be a blessing. In some scenarios, my long term approach to investments may produce a recovery that lets me keep my home, and may even make it, or another home, comfortably self-sufficient. Acquiring self-sufficiency is one plan for disconnecting from the centralized turmoils. Each scenario, and several others, run through my head several times a day.

My client is also a friend. He, too, had a time when his plans seemed to have fallen apart and extrapolations were dire. And then he got “the” phone call. One change changed everything else for the better. That was a few years ago. Now, he is planning for the next thing; not in an attempt to firmly create a future, but to develop a plan that allows for flow, change, acceptance, and awareness. (Discretion keeps me from passing along more, but I hope he posts the pertinent links in the comments.)

As for me, I planned to do something else this afternoon. Instead, I’ll post this post, hit the deli to see if they have an after-five special, and then head out to two or three other events. You see, unexpectedly, a friend opened a gallery and is exhibiting my art; Light October Corduroy and unexpectedly, a friend and entrepreneur is hosting a party to celebrate their return to town; and, if I have time and energy, I’ll drop in on some friends playing music where a friend is tending bar where some of my other friends will be. But those are only my plans. Something even better may show up, and I want to be able to fit that into my plans.

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My Jobs Report Month 23

I’m turning the final corner into the second calendar lap of years of looking for a job. Two years ago I eagerly awaited the good news that would send my investments higher and cross me over to having “enough” and the retirement of a need to work. Well, that didn’t go the way I expected. Since then I’ve lost over 90% – 98% of my net worth (depending on the estimated value of my house and a few other things), I haven’t found a full-time job or even had an interview, haven’t paid my mortgage in months, and yet am working seven days a week. Numerous times within a day I’ll swing through pessimism, optimism, and confusion. Maybe that’s the motto for the long term unemployed.

Let’s get the bad news out of the way. Official job applications haven’t resulted in interviews; therefore, they haven’t resulted in a job. The other bad news, There Are Still 3 Times More Unemployed Workers Than Job Openings. I haven’t delved into those numbers but I know the sad fact that the official numbers used for counting the unemployed miss millions of people who’ve given up looking for work. Add in the upper estimate of eight million disaffected unemployed and the ratio is 5 people for every job.

The not-so-bad news is that unofficial job applications have been a more productive use of my time. They also haven’t resulted in interviews; but, they are more encouraging and actually provide feedback about why I didn’t get the job. Every rejection has included personal assurances that someone else will undoubtedly be equally impressed with my skills – and will hire me.

The better news is that my business is keeping me busy seven days a week, with most days longer than eight hours, frequently as much as ten hours, with occasional twelve hours days. The workload is good and bad news, but the trend is good. Spending that much time last year was almost all unpaid speculation on my part: writing a bookWalking Thinking Drinking Across Scotland, taking photographs, advertising classes, and planning collaborations. This year the billable hours are filling the time, the rate is increasing, and some of my clients have hired me for ongoing assignments. The sad fact that keeps this from being the best news is that the sum of all that good news is still less than what I need to pay all of my bills, even without paying the mortgage.

The best news so far is that this month, if the checks come through in time, my business will finally have made enough to pay all of those non-tax, non-mortgage, non-homeowners-association bills. This is progress. The other best news is that I’ve actually been able to decrease the number of twelve hour days without cutting back on revenue too much. Balancing time and money is a struggle when basic needs aren’t being met, but one basic need can’t be bought: health. At this level of effort, and under these conditions, “mental health days” are not euphemisms. Without time to recuperate physically, mentally, and emotionally, my body begins to deteriorate, my mind has a tougher time concentrating, and I can be a lot less pleasant to be around. At least now, I am making time almost every day to sit on the deck with a nightcap and just sit. Besides, eventually it is too dark to do yardwork or call anyone.

The best news probably hasn’t arrived yet. Two week ago I posted Good News Sooner Please where I listed many of my reasons for optimism. Since then there’s been reason for more optimism, not less. Seattle’s housing market continues to impress. My investments are with companies that are making progress, and some have actually had hints of good news. If my business continues its trend and switches to more consulting, and as sales increase, I may be able to pay all of my bills, even the mortgage. At the same time, I’ve been assured that my name is being included for various job possibilities. Thank you. Spread the good word.

The swings from pessimism through optimism and confusion happen with each bit of mail, phone call, and bit of news. The most useful recent revelation was that the things I can control most: filling out job applications, filling out paperwork for foreclosure forbearance, etc. are also the things that may be the least effective use of my time. Properly filled out forms don’t pay bills. The other part of the revelation was that the things that can resolve my situation: whether that is money through investments, the lottery, my business, sales, or a job; are out of my control. Control lives with my clients, customers, the market, and luck. Without enough money, the forms don’t matter. With enough money, the forms don’t matter. Filling out the forms can find me a job, though the resume bots guard that gate. Filling out forms can hold off foreclosure, maybe, but eventually I have to find the money or lose my home. Home For Sale The confusion steps in when I realize the most important aspects of my financial situation are out of my control, in which case pessimism and optimism are arbitrary.

If pessimism and optimism are arbitrary, then I might as well pick the one that’s more fun.

Many will say that pessimism and optimism are the attitudes that manifest the lives we live. That may be true. I’ve seen no way to prove it. There are sufficient examples of people dreaming of and achieving success, and of people with self-destructive habits that create self-fulfilling prophecies. There are also dismal people who are surprised at their success, and upbeat people who became homeless and hungry. I know that until two summers ago, I spent a lot of time manifesting (daydreaming) a relaxing, enjoyable, productive life that had far more security and comfort than I’ve experienced lately. Maybe I’ll manifest that positive future, and that I have to go through this turmoil to get there. Stay tuned.

Next month’s report will be My Jobs Report Month 24, and will be the last jobs report – unless there is something awesome to report. “What? You want me to run an incubator for triple bottom line innovators, it’s only a part-time job, and yet it pays more than I need to survive and thrive where I want to live? Thank you. Yes!” But I will give up the monthly reports. Our world is changing, and the search for traditional jobs may have changed to the point that a middle-aged guy reporting on a job search may be anachronistic.

So, now it is time to get back to work at this job and that job then that job and celebrate completing the other job and get ready for the next job – and check the web and the email and the phone and my friends for that bit of great news that we can all celebrate.

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Dust Bowl Beer

I feel the need, the need for beer. I normally don’t drink beer, but when I do – you know something’s up (like someone’s buying, offering home brew, or I’m in the UK). As a writer, I like to think that I am in control of what I’m going to write about. Pick a topic, launch in, and move on. Lately the topics are stacking up faster than I can write. There’s a collision of content in my brain today so rather than methodically sorting it all out I decided to succumb to a rare afternoon beer and let lubrication facilitate expostulation.
Cheers
Comedies sell well during traumatic times. Just ask the Marx Brothers. Oops. Too late for that; but, their movies did come out during the Great Depression. I’ve been leaning towards the comedy genre streaming across Netflix, so go ask why I ended up watching the excellent, though tragic, Ken Burns’ documentary on the Dust Bowl. Families were stressed with seven years of repercussions from early adopter farming mistakes and drought. Those that could move, did. A few stayed from eternal optimism. Many lived lives out of their control, staying if they had no other option, moving if they were forced out of their homes. What was easy to overlook were the people who saw no future, or nothing but dead ends and who then made their own end. My situation is tame in comparison. I am astonished at how so many people survived such greater trauma for so many more years.

I’ve spent the next few evenings watching videos from stand-up comics.

One of my more enjoyable and better paying jobs is spending an hour or so a day culling through the day’s news to find items that resonate with values-based financial literacy. I post the results on New Road Map’s Facebook page. New Road Map stands as a guide at a gateway between two worlds: the conventional consumer and paycheck world, and the highly individually customized world of people who’ve decided to spend their time and money according to their internal values. The failings of the old world are heightened. The appeal of a variety of new worlds is revealed. Each day I skim across both chronicling the push and the pull that is moving portions of our population. Emotional highs and lows are part of every day.

I have a much better idea of the kind of life I want to lead, but I also feel trapped like a Dust Bowl farmer.

From my base of operations in one of the tallest buildings in downtown Langley (my office is on the second floor), I’ve made daily trips out to my various friends in town, many of whom own businesses. The image of a quiet little tourist town persists, but it does so with tremendous effort. Langley Second Street Market Volunteers take on jobs for which there is no budget. Locals who love living here may also have three jobs – and worries about paying the bills. I know of two that suddenly found themselves trying to fund failed septic systems. There wasn’t money set aside for that. I recognize frugal. These folks aren’t wasting their money, and even with all of the time they are working, they don’t have a cash cushion.

Spending habits have been blamed on people living off their home equity, until that ran out. Credit card debt can only go so far. IRA withdrawals may be the last resource for those making less than their expenses. All are good reasons to live frugally. Not enough of the population is doing so, nor is the government, so each financial wave crashes against a weaker foundation. But we’ll prop it up in time, right?

My home equity is debatable, and not necessarily bad. We won’t know if it has any equity until my house sells. Home For Sale Hopefully I make enough money so I don’t have to sell or encourage the mortgage company to foreclose. My credit card debt was well-managed – until my stocks were hit by the Triple Whammy and a few extra bills like medical bills, car repairs, and taxes jumped in. The credit card company has subsequently reduced my credit limit, effectively negating an emergency cushion. My IRA was sustaining me for a while, but I stopped tapping it when I sold the last of my DNDN (at a price I think was 90% too low.) My financial foundation is weakened, but there is a good chance it will be more than just propped up if my portfolio recovers.

I know of about five businesses that are closing because of retirement or so the entrepreneurial owners can concentrate on other successes. Turnkey business offerings do happen. A few others have either just changed hands or are about to. At the same time,
I know of about a half-dozen businesses that look healthy, until you find out that the owners aren’t paying themselves, or that the business is only surviving on proceeds from the owner’s IRA. One financial slip, or even an offer of a marginally better paycheck, are enough to inspire another business passage. At least across South Whidbey, there will be an opportunity for a renaissance – as long as someone is willing to fund it.

The stereotype of the hard-working entrepreneur succeeding has enough success stories to sustain it, but many of the stories are reminiscent of Dust Bowl farmers persevering and eventually experiencing ten years of bumper crops, out of sixty years of trying.

Yesterday afternoon, as I waited for the bus home, I talked to another of the famously happy shop owners in Langley. We agreed that those of us who’ve been working six or seven days a week for months or years really should have a party. And then we laughed. She had only fifteen minutes between jobs. I was constrained by a bus schedule that only ran every two hours and stopped after 5:30 (but hey, it’s free!). We could all use a party. We could all use a laugh. Our best guess was a five minute party when we all met in the middle of the street, passed around hugs and chuckles, made a very quick toast, and then scurried back to maintaining the facade of a peaceful tourist town. Five minutes is too short for a beer. We may have to resort to liquor because it is quicker, to drink that is.

So, what did I end up writing about? Well, I guess I wrote about what’s on my mind, or at least what’s in my bloodstream. Recently, traveler, raconteur, and consultant extraordinaire, Steve Smolinksy wrote about a trip to foster prosperity in Africa, where;
. . . it was around 105 (45.5555…) every single day. But I did get to drink that great beer they make in 55 gallon barrels in the townships. 30 cents a pitcher and the bugs floating in it add a little protein at no extra cost.
Dust Bowl, years of perseverance, optimism regardless, and beer at 30 cents a pitcher – he may be over there helping them, but we may have lessons for us.

Where's that last drop?

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Fun In Dysfunctional

And now for something completely different. Dysfunctional. Dis fun shun Al. This fun shuns all? Or this fun shuns Al? If the second is the case, then I feel sorry for Al. Weirdness, absurdity, incredulity, many more multi-syllabic responses to recent news, global trends, and my current situation reached a limit with me recently. At some point the word “Ridiculous” pops up, and maybe that’s a good time to step away and find a way to recharge, and maybe laugh.

Remember laughter? Thank you Monty Python and Laugh-In for making fun during the sixties and seventies. Thank you Saturday Night Live for 38 years of breaking the rules and skewering convention. Thank you John Stewart and Stephen Colbert for taking the hyperbole of broadcast “journalism” and making it more hyperbolic by comparing it to reality. How else can we get through such times?

October Smiles

My situation is so bizarre that several of you have suggested making it a movie. One of you has already pitched it in Hollywood. I’m an imaginative guy. A lot of what’s happened were things I knew were possible, but I spent more time imagining the optimistic possibilities. To have some many of the apparently negative possibilities occur was unbelievable. Put all of that into a story and audiences would dismiss it as fiction. Throw in the illogic of the foreclosure process, the irrationality of the stock markets, the disconnect between what should work for finding jobs and selling houses and the story becomes so complex and incomprehensible that listeners and readers would find more reasonable entertainment elsewhere. As a movie or a book, it could play out as a series, and most series are dramas, not comedies. Where’s the fun in that?

I haven’t studied the stages of grief but somewhere along the healing process must be the ability to make a joke about it.

I think our society will demonstrate its maturity when crowds start demonstrating with messages that are more terrific than terrible. The Rally to Restore Sanity and/or Fear was an excellent start. That was over two years ago. Isn’t it bizarre that things have gotten more bizarre since then? We’re due for another dose; and then it should be franchised, and I think it would be hilarious if someone found a way to make a lot of money from it, and then use the money to set up super-Pacs like Colbert’s Americans for a Better Tomorrow, Tomorrow. I guess we need a new and expanding breed of court jesters that outnumbers and speaks louder than the combined special interests and dysfunctional institutions. There’s plenty of raw material delivered every day. Money may be hard to find but opportunities for punch lines are littering our lives. Yes, the Guy Fawkes’ masks are iconic; but, I think jester’s bells or clown’s noses might be more appropriate.

Rhetorically, I’m asked how I’m getting through this. Skip the philosophical responses. They haven’t turned off my oxygen. Gravity continues to keep me on this planet. My body continues to continue. What other choices do I have?

Within the last few days I came to realize that my backup plans that require the most effort can’t seem to produce a solution. Even if I fill out all of the appropriate forms and deliver them on time, foreclosure will happen if I don’t find enough money. Working twelve hours a day only produces half of what I need, and simply doubling my efforts will simply eliminate me, which is a drastic way to eliminate my finances. Even selling my house only solves my foreclosure and debt issue, not my housing situation because I’ll still have to find money to pay rent somewhere.

Within the last few days I came to realize that my backup plans that can produce a solution are all out of my control. My best job prospects have been unsolicited. My business is like any other, in control of the customers. My portfolio will recover if the market raises the price of my stocks. And my lottery tickets are in the control of random chance – as far as I know.

So, as a consultant I could recommend to myself to only concern myself with the plans that can make a difference and only work on them as much as necessary. Especially in the case of my portfolio and lottery plans, sitting on the deck with a gin & tonic should suffice.

My view - for sale

Now, that’s an appealing plan!

And we know that I won’t do that. I’ll continue to work because planning on luck is not planning. It is an exercise in faith, but faith has its own timing, and in the meantime I should spend my main resource, time, making the resource society demands, money. It should only be a temporary exercise anyway, and my efforts are generating lots of stories.

My efforts may not have much to do with the right causes that will produce the correct effects, but they are what I can do, so they are what I will do. But this new realization also inspires me to relax. I should do more things that are fun. Fun is healthy, yeah, that’s it; I’m keeping down health care costs. Fun can be free; excellent if I can find ways to spend time that don’t cost money. Fun can be shared; and too many people have told me too many stories for me to doubt that millions of us need to laugh.

So, I’m not going to apologize for skipping a stock analysis, or not providing a personal finance tip, or delving into a lifestyle trend (though I guess I accidentally am doing that.) Oh wait, maybe that’s the point and I didn’t even realize it. When we try to outthink and outwork our problems we can wear ourselves out. Have a bit of fun and find unexpected treasures, unexpected wealth.

Here’s something a friend and I did for a bit of fun.  Wynn likes being in front of the camera. I wanted a way to play with the camera without thinking in terms of galleries and sales. We both enjoy the tourist towns around Puget Sound – and decided that too many of their videos were “rainbows and wind chimes”; so, we started making a series of videos of Two Guys Walk Around – fill in the blank. The most recent: Two Guys Walk Around Anacortes. Enjoy, just for the fun of it, and as Wynn says at the end; “Who knows where that may lead us?”

As I type this last, the music next door has started. There’s a free dance tonight. From my office window I can see my friends arriving. Time to go. It looks like fun.

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Chicken And Eggs And Beer

“Beer? Fine idea, but really, I can’t afford it.” “What? You’re buying and I don’t have to drive? Why, thank you!” So began a conversation that ended a day of fine ideas, grand plans, and limited resources. As ever, fine ideas and grand plans dance with limited resources as each tries to get closer to safer commitments. Those first steps are the hardest, and lately they’re happening when money is least likely to move. Change continues regardless, moves will be made, and the greatest rewards will probably go to those who didn’t stand still.

If you don’t know by now, I enjoy coming up with ideas, inventions (got one patented), strategies, and plans. I enjoy jumping back and forth from the big picture to the details and then back out again, steering towards a goal as if I was alone on a large ship running back and forth between the bridge and the engine room. Set a course up on the bridge, and then run below decks to make sure the engines are fine. The bridge is the big picture, generally picking a direction and looking for hazards. The engine room is the details, making sure everything is oiled and lubed and tight. But from down below, you can’t see where the ship is headed; and from up above, it’s easy to miss a loose wire or an overheating axle.

The life of an artist or an entrepreneur is like that, ready to switch roles at any time between production, maintenance, administration, sales, and advertising. The chicken and egg problem is self-contained and progress can be made as long as few resources are needed. Unfortunately, cautious customers, expensive real estate, and restrictive lending mean most grander plans are put on hold. It is tough to inch a business towards sufficient revenues or square footage one square foot at a time. Ideas and businesses can be stymied and income subsequently capped by such hurdles.

Recently, a courageous friend tried. She has a marvelous business (even if she no longer makes my favorite chocolate macaroons) making and selling chocolate in downtown Langley, and shipping around the world. Sweet Mona’s does good work. She had a plan to expand, to fill one of the anchor business properties, and yet didn’t find the money. Real estate is described in fractions of a million, and chocolate is sold by the dollar. I know she’ll try again.

Another friend owns another business in Langley, poised for growth, drawing traffic from around the world to our little town, and shipping back out as well. She too is caught in long work days with no days off, on this side of the crux that could do marvelous things for our economy and her finances. Chocolate Flower Farm is more than a farm, more than flowers, and not just chocolate. But businesses of a few employees don’t expand smoothly because each new employee is a noticeable spike in expenses that precedes the anticipated increase in sales, or at least sanity. Lose an employee for a weekend and the reverse impact can be enormous.

I’m engaged in my own business expansion. I’m spending more, hoping to make more, hoping to make more than enough to appease the mortgage company and return my finances to comfortably enough. My needs are smaller. That’s one of the advantages of consulting. I need enough room for me, my computer, a few supplies, and my clients. Pull up a chair. Have a cup of tea. Let’s talk. I’ve been doing that from my home, but the possibility of foreclosure generates bizarre traffic around the house. Buzzards are more discrete as they wait for their meal. So, I am renting a small bit of counter in a co-work space with an excellent view in downtown Langley,  getting myself and business into a more reasonable environment. So far I’ve had lots of traffic, but no more business – yet. Step by step, this can work, but no step comes with guarantees.

Downtown Langley is like many small towns I’ve seen. Change is generational. Ideas and plans pop up and play, but persistent habits can squelch plans based on old stories. “Oh, no one has ever run a successful business from that spot, so you won’t either.” Generational changes happen in waves that don’t have to coincide with larger economic trends. In Langley’s case, there almost may be synchronicity. The economy does seem to be improving. This tourist season seems busier than the last few years. The coffeeshops are busier. The farmers’ markets seem to be drawing larger crowds. At the same time, the recent economic turmoil, and a desire or need to step away means many businesses are hunting for new owners. Corner businesses are empty, waiting for new tenants, and the potential tenants are waiting for whatever support they can find. Ideally, the spots would have been filled before the traffic returned, but maybe the tight parking will prove to someone that it will be profitable to fill the vacancies now.

One of the advantages of working downtown, both streets of it, is the opportunity to visit my friends in their shops during my breaks from the computer. During one of my breaks, a friend and I kicked around an old idea that continues to appeal. Langley may be know for chocolate in various ways, and has more than enough coffeeshops, restaurants, and bookstores, (and even a fine outdoor gear shop), but it’s identity is more as an art community. Years ago, I was part of another group that proposed turning downtown Langley into an art campus by housing a variety of types of art in the various empty buildings. Each would be a place to sell, watch, learn, and maybe make art. There’d be more to do in addition to drinking coffee or wine and indulging in chocolate. We presented our idea to City Hall. It failed. Ironically, one of the more successful businesses is now a glass blowing facility in the old firehouseCallahan's Firehouse Tourists would have more to do. Artists would have another stream of income by teaching classes, a high profit margin business. And by distributing the venues, tourists would naturally walk by the existing businesses. Ah, but we knew we were talking about big chickens and big eggs, so we both got back to work.

I took the bus home because it’s safer than bicycling on a Friday night during tourist season. The bus stop closest to my house is at Bailey’s Corner store. For years, Bailey’s was a dusty convenience store, barely surviving on the thousand or so people living at the south end of the island. A few years ago, a new generation became the owners. What was a convenience store is now becoming a pub. They sold out of ribs during their grand opening last week. What was a mechanic’s garage is now a sculptor’s studio, which means the patio railings for the beer garden are a lot nicer than chain link. They’ve had ideas, pushed, succeeded, moved to the next idea and repeated. They were out of the way, so there was no one to get in their way. They had enough revenue so they could make progress.

I’ve wanted to drop by, but my finances are so slim that I rarely eat out. I wanted to stop for a beer, but that costs money and there’s always more work to do at home. Then I heard my name called out. Paul, the sculptor and philosopher, offered to buy me a beer. I wasn’t driving so I said yes. For the next hour, as we sat in someone’s dream coming true, we talked about his plans, the value of optimism coupled with persistence, and my situation. Paul had a great idea for me. Evidently my enthusiasm for others and art is evident, and could be a valuable service, leading others in the exploration of how they can express themselves after years of stifling corporate careers. I’ve made the transition from engineer to artist. I could help others discover their outlet. That would be fun. But I have so little to start with. Of course there is that one photography student who said, “I learned more from Tom over the nine or so hours in the classroom and walking the beach than I did during a week-long and much more expensive digital photography course in Pennsylvania last year.” Maybe that’s worth more than I know.

So, maybe, just maybe. Of course, I could also get busier because we finally found funding for the virtual museum, New Road Map‘s financial literacy webinars, an extension to the Two Guys videos, and maybe a revitalization of a sweet town that’s ready for its next era. It is a chicken and egg situation to consider over a beer.

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