Googly-eye-ing Disney And Projectors

Posted on April 6, 2014 by Tom Trimbath

Smartphones are it! So are tablets. So were laptops. So smartwatches and eyewear and wearable computers shall be. So we can be proud we’re working the trends. You ain’t seen nothing yet, and when the next thing shows up it may look like nothing to everyone else, but the wearer will see a different world. I tried on Google Glass, listened to the pitch, saw a presentation from Disney Research and realized the world is about to change again – and not only because of Google.

For the first several days in April I attended the Museums and the Web conference,

photo courtesy of Andrew Lewis (@rosemarybeetle)

photo courtesy of Andrew Lewis (@rosemarybeetle)

a conference for museum operators and staff that are wise enough to know that marble columns, white walls, artifacts, and little placards aren’t enough in 2014. Visitors expect to walk in with their smartphones in hand, take photos to share regardless of copyright, and are more likely to access wikipedia than a curator or docent. I was there as Project Manager for the Virtual Museum of the History of Computing in Learning and Education (HCLE). Smartphones in our museum? Our museum will be in the smartphone. No red velvet ropes. No dusting required.

Most of the presentations were from museum people talking about museums, visitors, and technology. Just like in education, where the teacher’s role and control changed because of computers (which is one of the primary motivations for our museum), museums’ roles and controls are changing. (I think they have a lot to learn from the educators, but then I have a bias.)

Two presentations that came from the technology side pleased the geek in me.

Eric Brockmeyer from Disney Research (Pittsburgh) gave a sweeping show about using technology that brings the animated characters out of the movies and into the real world. Rapid prototyped versions of the characters are equipped with robotic parts, LED light-piped eyes that track the motion of the visitor; even ways to save and store and listen to sounds generated by, in, and around plants. A quick segment, maybe not even a minute long, showed two pico-projectors working in concert to as part of a game. Investors in MicroVision, like me, know the potential for pico-projectors; and we’ve frequently cautioned our prognostications because we realize the company’s success may come from applications we haven’t imagined. These two pico-projectors played a new trick (at least to me). One used visible light. One used infra-red. The visitor only sees one, and may not know how the other one adds depth and intelligence to the interaction. Robots aren’t just for building cars. LEDs aren’t just for lighting the living room. Plants may finally get a voice in a language we can hear. 3-D animations may walk across a table and play with your drink. (A sobriety and sanity test I just invented.)

Google brought Google Glass, their revolutionary eyewear that is so well-tested that I’ve seen about a dozen in demos and in real life.

Google Glass - so common there was one in the front and one in the back

Google Glass – so common there was one in the front and one in the back

The presenters made a good case for how wearable computers will change the way we interact with the world and each other. Previous wearable computers were bulky, required belted joysticks and keyboards, and large CPUs and battery packs. Miniaturization has shrunk much of the hardware into a pair of glasses and a smartphone. (One presenter mentioned that we all have smartphones. Ha! My mobile is a Kyocera flip phone, Photo on 2014-04-06 at 18.42 and I only have it because Sprint pulled the antiquated tower hardware that could actually talk with my previous, perfectly capable flip phone.) To me, the main enabler was the control being voice and a finger swipe rather than hand-controllers. Free the hands and increase the interaction, museum or not. Add sensors and the interaction reaches other sensory dimensions.

After the presentations I quickly roamed the exhibit hall. There was a lot to do, so I couldn’t spend much time with the vendors; except for my friends over at STQRY. Maybe it is easier to chat because any business from HCLE is theoretical or years away. They make mobile apps, or apps for mobile devices; which means they are central to the conventional museums’ conversation and conversion. And they had a Google Glass tester, which I happily wore. If they expected a bigger reaction, I may have disappointed them. I’ve seen such devices before. As friends I asked them about the potential I have seen with pico-projectors coupled with hands-free computers.

Pico-projectors don’t just act like another screen. They can project. They can read. One application is a computer that replaces the screen with one pico-projector and the keyboard with another. Computers can take the next step from room-sized to desktop to laptop to handheld to worn to – I don’t know, sewn in? One of the consequences of MicroVision’s technology is that, while it is projecting an image it can also capture finger movements. Hand swipes on an iPad can become hand swipes in mid-air, which may look strange but are less obtrusive than people talking on cell phones. A computer becomes a device the size of a coffee cup, or smaller: CPU, memory, power, and two projectors the size of thin mints.

That doesn’t change the museum experience until someone takes the extra step and makes it wearable. Keyboards in air, that are only visible to the wearer. Displays that are transparent, and that can overlay the world with data or digital graffiti (which is far preferable to real graffiti). If the glasses are indistinguishable from spectacles, then there is no control over what the visitors sees or accesses. A virtual world overlaying the real world means white walls have their place. Or shares, because this can also improve the appeal of museums. A visitor having a revelatory experience can immediately share it to their social network without interfering with the rest of the visitors. Awareness grows. Culture spreads. Museums increase their relevance.

Such a vision may be going too far for some conversations. Yet, the speed of the technology will not be changed to accommodate the speed of a museum’s evolution. The revolution will walk in the door; and it won’t just happen in museums. Classrooms, conference rooms, offices, even around the home will work best if they work with the fact that people will use their finger tips to call up data from anywhere without intruding on someone else’s life. Though, casual observers may find it fun to watch a bunch of people wagging fingers at each other. And of course, the wearers may have a grand time in the virtual world making fun of the computationally naked folks.

As an investor in MicroVision I am encouraged, at least for the technology and hopefully for the company. Their proprietary technology solves many problems simultaneously while adding features: always in focus, even on moving curtains; biometrics, by possibly conducting real-time retinal identification; and evidently the possibility to extend beyond visible light, to do . . . ?

Many of the technological changes are discussed as extrapolations, dreams of possibilities a decade away. Pico-projection has been in work for decades and may disrupt technologies and our world, even institutions like museums, within years – and for all I know, months.

About ten years ago I tried on a wearable computer. MicroVision actually released it as a product. The Nomad was a cigarette-sized box clipped onto the brim of a baseball cap, with a hand controller worn on a belt. The display was only in red, aimed at too niche of a market (auto mechanics), and wasn’t designed for manufacture or repair or profit. Yet from what I recall, Nomad’s image was clearer than Google Glass’. Maybe that’s just my age. I also recall the color prototype that played images directly onto the retina, dramatically decreasing power requirements while also making the display readable in daylight (except for maybe in the desert at high noon.) Nomad’s controller was more responsive because it didn’t rely on wi-fi. But it didn’t look nearly as nice (which is a very sad statement for both) and didn’t have Google’s publicity and name spreading the word.

I am glad to be alive as we live through this era, just like I find it unique to have lived through an era that so dramatically changed education and the rest of my life. Just like before though, people become comfortable with the new speed of change that follows a disruption – and then the next disruption hits. I don’t know if it will be from Disney, or Google, or MicroVision, or someone else, or some combination of them; but, I am more convinced that it is about to happen. I hope I can afford to buy in and enjoy.

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The Day After The ACA Deadline

Posted on April 2, 2014 by Tom Trimbath

The deadline passed. Obamacare, ACA, the Affordable Care Act, the great grandiose pack of wonders or horrors depending on your point of view reached and surpassed its quota of subscribers. The wonders and horrors are already being touted. It sounds like the day after someone gets their first car; do you want to hear about the grand and glorious places they can go, or do you want to hear about the cost of gas and the vehicular accident rates? The systemic economic statistics won’t be available for years, but those of us that signed up by the December deadline have months of personal data to back up our stories.

To those who’ve shared their stories and their data with me, don’t worry, discretion will be maintained.

To those of you just finding this blog and my story, here are a few links along the way.

To those of you who’ve been following my story, the slapstick fun never seems to end.

But wait. My pratfalls, banana peals, and whoopie cushion moments were supposed to be over. I finally got everything arranged. Provider chosen. Payments arranged. Premiums paid. You are a silly person, or maybe it is just me.

First I couldn’t log in. Then I got coverage but at a 60% increase. Then it turned out I probably didn’t have coverage. Then I got coverage and got the tax credit and the rate came back down to my pre-ACA rate plus ten dollars. Then I didn’t get billed, and only resolved it within hours of the deadline.

Welcome to March. I expected a bill in the mail because the fine folks at Washington Health Plan worked hard to set that up for me. I trust technology more than many, but enough had gone wrong that I wanted paper delivered that I would respond to with an envelope, a stamp, and a paper check. Ah, but an email came in that looked like an auto-pay, but hey, at least it was paid.

Or not. I watched my bank account and the money hadn’t been withdrawn. Open the email, click on the link, spend too much time and energy logging in and having to reset passwords again, to learn that the email has a link to the bill, not to a payment. I was supposed to print the bill myself. And the payment wasn’t due at the end of the month. It was due a week earlier.

The regular mail wouldn’t work in time. Even Express Mail doesn’t take a letter stamped at 10pm on the 30th and get it to its destination by the 31st. Bang my head slowly, otherwise it hurts too much – and for all I knew and know, I don’t have coverage.

Ah, but a glimmer of hope. There was a Pay It Now button, which I clicked, where I paid, and received a receipt. So, I don’t know if I have coverage, but I do know that they have my money. One spot of good news is that my premium dropped 10%. One spot of bad news is that friends tell me mistakes in the paper payment process take months to resolve.

Have you caught on to what’s missing in this discussion of health insurance? There has been no mention of health being cared for. No doctors visits. No prescriptions. Just payments in money, time, and emotional reserves.

Let us celebrate millions of people signing up for health care. Authentic anecdotes tell of people finally receiving medication, going to the doctor, not being bureaucratically limited by pre-existing conditions. But almost all coverage includes co-pays (usually reasonable), deductibles (which is $2,000) in my case, and some portion of the doctor’s visits, tests, and procedures.

I believe that healthier people will systemically decrease the cost of health care (duh, and yet that point isn’t raised enough), will increase the productivity of the nation, will free up ideas and time and energy and money to improve almost every aspect of society. But we aren’t talking about free healthcare. We’re talking about health insurance that costs as much as some people are paying for food, or housing; and those are the people who had to make tough choices about which bills to pay which may have been why they weren’t insured at the start.

Here, in the first days of April, I don’t know if I have insurance. Yes, I know it will be easy to find out. Just call. But I’ve learned that any such call can easily take two hours, and two hours chasing electronic ghosts is two hours I’m not billing hours that pay my bills.

Signing up for healthcare is simple. Enough of my friends have proved that. Maybe my issues have to deal with overwork, which could also be said about many of those who’ve signed up.

Personal finance is inherently simple. Saving for retirement is simple. Spend less than you make and invest the rest.

The simple stories suggest simple solutions. There are details that don’t fit in short articles, or even in episodic blogs. Especially in healthcare, every situation is different because we are all unique.

As the March 31st deadline approached I could tell that a lot of people were looking for help in unofficial places. My blog traffic grew every day until it set records. The most popular posts were of my experiences trying to sign up, pay, and confirm my health care coverage. Considering that healthcare tends to be tied to a region, there were a lot of people in Washington State looking for help; and Washington State is one of the better run systems (from what I’ve heard.)

I suspect I’ll know even more if I ever actually visit a doctor. In the meantime, I’ll continue my version of eating right, exercising, trying to get plenty of rest and fluids, and maybe getting a massage or visiting an acupuncturist. No insurance required.

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Shopping For A Coin

Posted on March 28, 2014 by Tom Trimbath

I want to buy some money. That can sound like a silly idea. “Hey, how much will you charge me for that dollar?” And, no, I’m not about to go on about trading in currencies. That’s been going on for centuries. The money I want is something new, and I don’t want to trade it. I want to use it. In the last few years cryptocurrencies have arisen. Have you heard of Bitcoin? It isn’t alone. People are searching for alternatives to dollars, pounds, yen, and anything printed by a nation. They couldn’t find what they wanted; so, they created what they sought. Now comes the hard part, making it work. The hard part for me is learning more. The easiest way to learn? Buy a Bitcoin or one of its cousins and see what I can do with it. Let the shopping begin.

The dollar and the Euro continue to rule the world of finance. All the cryptocurrencies added together are still worth less than a corporation like Starbucks. Bitcoin is not threatening Fort Knox. But the recent turmoil decreased confidence in the conventional financial system. Some people want to disassociate themselves from the economy that includes the military-industrial complex, fossil fuels, and corporate egregences. Movies like Money & Life illustrate some of the unsustainable assumptions behind the current system. My concern comes from the systems analyses that suggest the system is dangerously unstable.

Cyptocurrencies have been designed to answer many of the concerns. They aren’t associated with governments or banks. They can’t be printed at whim the way governments print more money. The transactions have the potential to be more secure, more secret, more reliable, and harder to abuse (though recent events have proved that no system is perfect). They are decentralized, that scary notion that power isn’t concentrated; which is also appealing to some.

There is plenty of precedent. History is filled with non-governmental currencies. The dollar didn’t become the standard US currency until 1863. As a society we’ve yet to find the perfect economic system, and alternative currencies are evidence of our attempts.

There is also plenty of ignorance, which is where I am.

Despite my ignorance I am interested because I am a curious fellow and because enough of the concerns mentioned above have convinced me that a bit of diversification is a good idea. Stocks, bonds, mortgaged real estate, and most financial instruments all have the same single point of failure. If the dollar becomes unstable, they become unstable. As an engineer I don’t like unstable systems that have critical single points of failure.

Bitcoins drew my attention over the last few years. Oh, if I had only bought back then … Last month I wrote about my early interest in it. A few weeks later the news broke of the big Bitcoin heist. I’m glad I waited. I’d like to claim wisdom, but I was too busy to get around to making the transaction. The subsequent news items and the charts convinced me that Bitcoin may be in a bubble. Just because one coin is askew doesn’t mean the others are too. I’d heard of litecoin, peercoin, and dogecoin; but the coin that inspired me to do more than study is auroracoin.

I like Iceland. They just announced a cryptocurrency that is for their citizens, and to make sure their citizens all have an equal opportunity within the crypto-economy they gave everyone the same number of coins at the same time. Instead of early adopters stepping in and making the equivalent of a land grab, they gave everyone a stake and an equal opportunity. Very cool. (I also like what they did with mortgages.)

Auroracoin and the rest have a basic problem. Everyone knows how regular money is used to buy things, but crypto-currencies are novel enough that only those with the greatest incentives have been exercising them. Unfortunately, that has frequently been the illegal set. For cryptocurrencies to succeed they have to become useful for buying food, clothes, shelter and paying for utilities. Supply and demand are flirting with each other, but it is still like boys and girls sitting along opposite walls at a high school dance. Very few are making that first move.

I may have a unique opportunity to delve in, learn more, pass along what I learn, and maybe even use such a currency for something that is legit. I already have a virtual currency from Second Life called Linden Dollars.

My house in Second Life

The view from my house in Second Life

I’d like to diversify those dollars, so why not a non-Second Life cryptocurrency? I live in Washington State, which just legalized marijuana (though it isn’t on sale for recreational use yet). Marijuana shops have high enough hurdles when it comes to handling money through regular banks that another cryptocurrency has sprouted call Potcoin. Maybe exchanges can be made.

As I’ve mentioned, my passion is for people and ideas. I enjoy helping projects and new ideas. (That’s why I enjoy consulting.) This is a new idea that I may be able to help merely by buying a coin. And it may help me by placing me at least one small step closer to diversity in currency. My next step? Shopping for money. Always something new to learn, eh?

PS Something I recently learned is that some coins are gaining popularity as a way for readers to tip bloggers. Want to leave a tip whether I buy a coin or not? I’ve got a PayPal account. (tetrimbath@whidbey.com)

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Borrow A Bowl For A Bash

Posted on March 26, 2014 by Tom Trimbath

Borrow a bowl! Why yes, I’d be happy to. Why borrow a bowl? Because I had something to celebrate. A community helped, which meant the celebration would be more than just me. That sounded like a party, a bash. Got problems? It is good to have a supportive community. When’s the best time to build community? Before you need it. When’s a great time to reward community? After it has come together without expectation of reward. And repeat.

The good news is that it looks like I get to keep my home. Maybe. Really I am in a trial period that may result in a mortgage modification that may have a probationary period, but those are details. As long as my business can generate enough income (and a few extra hours consulting with paying clients helps a lot ), I’ll probably end up with a modified mortgage that is about half of the original. This was something to celebrate, particularly with the community of friends who’ve helped me through.

One of my clients is building and reinforcing community with a simple idea. The Six Bowls Project, instigated by Penny Bauer, is ingenious. Six bowls made by local potters, carried in artisan baskets, tucked in with words from local poets, and hosted by local businesses are borrowed for weekend events for free. DSC_4231 Borrow a bowl. Carry it home in the basket. Invite some friends around a community theme. Share the literary contribution. Share the food. Then clean the bowl, share the stories, and return the bowl and the basket and the words for the next person. Then, after six bowls have catalyzed a year of stories, auction off the bowls for a charity that helps clothe and feed the community. Brilliant. My role? Be a sounding board, then feed the Facebook page daily. I get paid to pass along stories. Nice job, even if it is more editorial than managerial.

So many of the stories are parts of grand ventures: trips to Africa, groups that have been together for years, generations supporting other generations covering every age. My story was about the fact that I could stay put. But too many others are embroiled in that same struggle that a bit of good news should probably be passed along. (And a friend just told me he may be able to save his house by learning from what I’ve gone through. Imagine that feeling.) The email invite list was long (and incomplete as always) and the party was to be as simple as ever.
“Been to my parties before? Same plan. I’ll put out some munchies and wine. No need to bring anything else but if you bring something then you know there’ll be something there you want to eat or drink.”
“Casual. My place isn’t that fancy (though I think the view is marvelous and a good reason to get here before sunset). Finale Mostly chit-chat, and usually some dancing before the end. You folks are entertaining enough that there’s no need for games and such. If you want to dance, I’ll have a boombox and some cds, but you are welcome to bring better equipment and music.”

But what to put in the bowl? So many of the other stories have impressive recipes. I love to cook, but those recipes set a high bar. Then I looked at what came with the bowl. Patricia Duff wrote the meaningful backstory to the bowl. (Every bowl gets some bit of literary eloquence.) She called it an Everyman bowl (by Lyla Lillis). Cooking for every one is difficult because we are a diverse crowd by choice and necessity. So, I decided that, rather than try to navigate dozens of diets, I’d put enough different things in the bowl to please (almost) everyone. DSC_4236Sausage in the middle, flanked by carrots and celery, fronted with cheese, and backed with brownies. (By the time the party started I had to switch out the sausages for smoked salmon. Long story. Burp.) And if no one ate them, I’d have good leftovers.

The bowl wasn’t alone. There was also the basket which was empty without the bowl, so I dropped in a sign: “Fill the basket with ideas.” Few had the time to write anything, but one idea was dear. “We should start a progressive party – take this to someone else’s house every couple of hours.” Marvelous. Maybe next time.

The party was so good that we didn’t get around to dancing. (Though I admit to missing that.)

Then it was time to bundle the bowl back into its basket (after washing it). Hang onto the memories of the party and my friends and what they’ve helped achieve.

DSC_4246

Community is built from within and by more than just one. Penny’s idea for Six Bowls is simple and powerful; and succeeds because so many people participate. Other individuals like, Drew Kampion of Drewslist, work on their own spending incredible time and effort creating vital services that ultimately reciprocate (and if you’re on drewslist have you sent him a donation lately?). Organizations like Good Cheer are more like what many expect, large non-profits officially providing an otherwise non-existent safety net. The beauty and the power of such support come from the efforts of individuals taking simple ideas, filling needs, and leaving egos behind. Most of their work is unacknowledged off-island. Do the same work in some urban environment and end up on the national news. But here, we get to see their efforts first hand, and appreciate them greatly.

Here we get to see what community can do for community – and it always starts with individuals.

Frugal people understand that personal finance is about value, which only sometimes involves money – though mainstream media makes it sound like money is the only thing of value.

If you’re on the island; borrow a bowl, donate to Drew, cheer on Good Cheer. If you’re not on the island; look around to see what’s there, and if nothing’s there know that you can make it yourself and make community at the same time.

Nothing is certain so it makes sense to celebrate what we can, how we can, and include as many as we can. And maybe there will be more dancing.

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Tolerate Risk Or Not

Posted on March 23, 2014 by Tom Trimbath

Fear freezes people. It works for fawns. Not so well for opossums, at least since we showed up. Fear is tied to risk and risk can’t be avoided. Risk is also personal. Understanding my risk tolerance is why my bio is so long and varied. Years ago I realized that in many things I am a chicken adventurer. My adventurous friends think I am a chicken. My cautious friends think I am adventurous. Knowing where to draw that line is immensely enabling, whether that is in the natural wilderness or the artificial one we’ve invented called investing.

Friday night I got to do one of my favorite things to do in public that doesn’t involve dancing. I gave a talk. (Thank you Friends of Langley Library.) Yeah, I’m easily entertained and one way to entertain me is to let me entertain others. I enjoy the very thing so many people are afraid of, public speaking. The talk was the first in a three-art series. March, bicycling across America. April, walking across Scotland. May, year-round hiking and skiing in the Cascade Mountains. A persistent theme for questions centers on fear. Wasn’t I worried about getting hurt? Of course. But I’ve learned when to continue and when to turn back.

On Saturday I got to provide one my favorite services from my business, consulting about life and money. Personal finance has never been simple. The recent turmoil has shaken peoples’ confidence in the system, which makes them even more likely to worry and doubt. Read my previous posts and you know I can sympathize.  Yet, more people are finding the courage to find their own answers. I’m impressed. Rather than work with their fears, I try to find their comfort zones, and then maybe expand those borders, and sometimes even shrink them based on their risk tolerance.

The risk tolerance of a chicken adventurer like me is a tested tolerance. I like to hike on cross-country skis. No lycra required. When I find an open slope of fresh snow I pause and check the situation. What was the avalanche report? Do I see any evidence of a slide? If it looks safe, but then I hear the snow settle under me, I prudently turn around, thank the world for a fine view and head back to safety.DSCN2102 When I bicycled across America I reduced my risk by simply shifting when I rode. In the morning people are on their way to work and don’t want to be late. After work they may have had a bad day, may not be in a rush to get home, may have had a few drinks, or may just be fatigued. So, I rode early and stopped early.

My risk tolerance with stocks has been tested, massively. Losing almost everything, not being able to pay the mortgage for over a year, and witnessing my triple whammy would be enough to convince many people to never invest again. Yet, I continue to invest.

The avalanche slope was a risk. But the rest of the trip was worthwhile even without that last bit. Investing is a risk, and I’ve felt the pain; but, I’ve also had enough worthwhile experiences to encourage me to continue.

But that is me.

Everyone has to find their boundaries and their limits. It is not an academic effort. It is not just a thought experiment. A bit of testing teaching more than a lot of thinking.

But, after those boundaries are better understood, then it is time to turn back to the zone they border. There’s where the positive parts live. It is easy to fall into the trap of trying to optimize every endeavor; especially when that endeavor is retirement planning conducted close to retirement. Maximize everything! No.

I see many people trying to prop up the edgy investments. There’s a value in that as long as it doesn’t cost too much, and I’m including the emotional cost. For good listeners it is relatively easy to hear the person’s tone change as they describe what they’re considering and doing. (It is why even consultants need consultants.) Staying in a job a few more years can sound like fun, or boring and dull and doable, or a grind emotionally and financially. A house can be a home and a joy, or an acceptable shelter, or an onerous burden. Investing in stocks can be exciting, or dry but useful, or scary. Asking about each of those, and other, topics can sketch a border. How risky is it to stay in the job, the house, or the stocks?

My home, which is a joy - and is also for sale

My home, which is a joy – and is also for sale

If there is some combination that works, great. If not, then it is time to get creative; which can be a lot of fun.

How about partial employment, or one and a half jobs, or self-employment, or even taking a sabbatical? How about selling, or renting, or getting a roommate, or swapping for a while? How about diving into individual stocks, or maybe mutual funds, or maybe bonds, or maybe some of the sharing economy possibilities like peer-to-peer lending?

The more frugal the person, the more options they have. How else do you think I’ve managed to maintain some semblance of normalcy? My favorite scenario was from a very frugal person who had a moderate windfall, that was large but not large enough. We realized that ten percent of that windfall and a frugal lifestyle could buy a year-long sabbatical and a lot of time to find creative and highly personal solutions. Meanwhile, the other 90% would be invested and possibly allowing the sabbatical to extend.

My home looks out across Cultus Bay, a tide flat with a view. I purposely bought above the historic tsunami line and back from the steeper hillsides. Between me and the mountains is Scatchet Head, a community with some of the most beautiful views. Yet, I look at the houses built on the water and below the hillside and know that I don’t want to live in such a risky place. But for them, it may be perfectly fine and never a problem. It is good that we both know our risk tolerances.

Scatchet Sunset - from Twelve Months at Cultus Bay

Scatchet Sunset – from Twelve Months at Cultus Bay

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Something Like A Mortgage Payment

Posted on March 17, 2014 by Tom Trimbath

I couldn’t wait. The authorities may all expect me to act at the very last moment, but that would delay my sense of relief. Why would I do that after more than a year of struggle? For the first time since Autumn 2011, I mailed a check to my mortgage company. I hope they like it. And, while I am celebrating the event, I also know that this isn’t actually a mortgage payment. That won’t happen for months, and there’s no guarantee it will happen then, either.

Welcome to another episode in my housing chronicle. The news makes the mortgage crisis sound onerous, and yet has to simplify each story to fit inside a few minutes or phrases. My story has been playing out in more than a year of episodes; and it isn’t over yet. Thank you to all who waded with me through the tougher times. Here’s another part of the story that’s on the nicer side.

The offer I described weeks ago finally arrived. It was just like they said. After reviewing my finances, and I’ve given them months of bank records to work from, they calculated that I could make a modified mortgage payment that is about half of my original payment. This sounds good. Yes, the principal has gone up by the amount that I haven’t paid, and by the penalties, and that seems appropriate. But the interest rate will possibly be down to 2% for a few years, and then take more years to ramp back up to an index based on a Fed rate. It may take a decade before it returns to what I signed up for when I bought this house over seven years ago.

Home For Sale

Small house for sale

The details that are less likely to become a news story involve months of uncertainty. The payment I just made is the first of three, or four, trial payments. If the mortgage servicer decides I made the payments in an appropriate fashion, they may, may, decide to offer me a modified mortgage that will probably, but not necessarily, be approximately the trial payment. Evidently I’ll know they approve of my actions when I receive a FedEx package of refinance paperwork. If they approve what I return to them, then they may offer the modified mortgage, or not. If they make the offer, I’ve been cautioned that I should continue to be extra-vigilant for months as if I am on an unspoken probationary period. I am potentially more than half a year from stepping past this process.

Well, that’s easy, right?

Welcome to my slapstick afternoon.

I am a nomad. My office can be anywhere because most of my work is online. But, since last May I’ve worked in a co-working space in downtown Langley. Langley is nice place to work. My workspace, the post office, the library, and the bank are all within view of each other.

Click for our Langley video

Click for our Langley video

Small towns are great that way. They are actually efficient places to work, as long as the money comes from somewhere else. Langley is also quaint, which I mention for two reasons: 1) because a friend hates that description, and 2) because lately it has been far from quaint. The street in Langley that leads to all of those places is a major re-construction site. (But hey, they’re working towards an impressive goal.)

We don’t have “Don’t Cross” signs because some things are obvious. On most days, a dozen heavy earthmovers can be quickly driving up and down the street – er – arena of dirt, mud, gravel, dust, and ditches. Simply crossing the street requires good shoes, alert senses, and nimble steps. Simply running errands isn’t simple. DSCN4972
Sending in a check isn’t simple, either. I was strongly advised to make it a cashier’s check for the exact amount, get copies of everything, and then mail it by Certified Mail with a Return receipt. Okay. Bank, cashier’s check. Library, printer. Post Office, trusted mail. Except that I got to work, collected everything I needed, and realized I left the number at home. I didn’t know what to make the check out for. Rummage. Quickly contact my official counselor. Wait for a reply. And then wander out to the parking lot where one scrap of paper happened to have the right amount written, which was confirmed when I got back to the office and saw the email reply. Catch breath. Drop in on the Post Office to check on the advice I was given, and make sure I was going to do things right. Scurry to the library to print a cover letter. Go farther to the bank. Proclaim my ignorance of cashiers checks and such. And realize I brought the wrong checkbook. Wind my way back to the office. Sidle past the caution tape and the ditch. Find the checkbook. Kick myself in the butt. Try again. And succeed. At kicking myself in the butt. And then rerun the errands. It only took about two hours. I needed to take a break after that, and luckily Langley has lots of places for good tea and such.

Better organized people have fewer problems. Maybe. At least if we ever make this into a movie there’ll be plenty of material for comic relief.

Despite the doubts and cautions, my situation is improving. I know that’s not the case for others. While the news talks about fewer foreclosures, I can see an empty foreclosed house from my backyard. I am relieved to still be in my house, even with my dammed plans. Their house has a blue tarp on the roof. The curtains are pulled back to reveal the sad sight of empty rooms. They left the neighborhood before I ever heard their story. Maybe they just aren’t as open and willing to expose the process as I am. Maybe I’ve been too busy in my own struggle to notice theirs until it was too late.

My house may be mine again. As my business and fortunes improve, the house can be improved too. The trial payment isn’t a mortgage payment, merely a demonstration that sells the idea that I am financially healthy enough to carry a modified mortgage. For me, the trial payment buys me things far more valuable: hopes, dreams, and opportunities.

Sunset nearly due west over Scatchet Head as we approach the Equinox - a Cultus Bay Stonehenge moment

Sunset nearly due west over Scatchet Head as we approach the Equinox – a Cultus Bay Stonehenge moment

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Geron Ouch And Yet

Posted on March 16, 2014 by Tom Trimbath

Great ideas rarely run smooth. Geron, a biotech with disruptive ideas that could redefine medicine and health, is probably years from proving itself, except that it suddenly looked like it would, just as suddenly looks like it won’t, and yet no one can predict the future.

How’s your risk tolerance? Mine’s been exercised so much I think I’d qualify for the investor’s Olympics. Few should attempt what I do. I’ve even had doubts myself. The buzzword version of my style is small cap startup LTBH. Want details? I wrote a book about that. Dream. Invest. Live. The short version in words is long term buy and hold in small companies with big ideas that may not be worth much when they start but could be worth incredible amounts when they succeed. Patience and acceptance are required. Research is a good idea too.

This seems to be a critical year for the markets and me. For several years the markets were scared, then timid, then began their confident climb (that may have been fueled by quantitative easing, and marginal managerial relaxation.) Profits are up. Corporate cash is accumulating. Big investors were buying big positions in big companies. The small companies languished for lack of financing and their customers’ adherence to convention. Things are changing.

Geron had some stellar news that almost tripled the stock. It’s new drug looked like it treated blood disorders and possibly even returned damaged bone marrow back to health in some cases. Then, the FDA gave them a call, a verbal communication, to place a hold on Geron’s clinical trials. The livers of some patients were experiencing abnormalities that might be chronic if exposed to the drug for a long time. “Verbal”, “some”, “abnormalities”, “might be”, “if” are the cautionary words being used that could soften a harsher truth or could be an overreaction from an overly-cautious regulatory agency dealing with technologies that are revolutionary. Dendreon has similar clinical and corporate upsets during its tests of disruptive (though eventually clinically successful) technology. Geron’s stock dropped 60%.

Those quick with math will already know what I’m about to show. GERN tripled, up over 200%, then dropped just as much by falling about 60%. At the end of June 2013, GERN’s market cap was $196,000,000. With the autumn news it jumped to close 2013 at $611,000,000. Last week it dropped back to $236,000,000. Yes. After GERN’s bad news, the stock is up 20% in less than a year. Rather than try to read anything into the specific numbers and percentages, I take the action as proof that the market’s error band is enormous. Especially with startups there is rarely a consensus of a stock’s value – despite strong declarative statements. Check around. There will always be an opposing, yet equally confident opinion.

Because this is such a critical year for the economy, my stocks, and me I decided to add a quarterly review to my semi-annual reviews. (Some of the data I’ve referred to can be found in my mid-2013 and end-2013 reports.) The news from GERN, MVIS, AMSC, and RSOL convinced me to do a quick check.

  • AMSC (market cap was $0.106B is $0.142B) up 34%
  • GERN (market cap was $0.611B is $0.236B) down 61%
  • GIG (market cap was $0.033B is $0.038B) up 15%
  • MVIS (market cap was $0.042B is $0.075B) up 79%
  • RSOL (market cap was $0.110B is $0.1151B) up 37%

Even with a “down 61%” a portfolio can do well with so many other large “ups”.

  • AMSC had good news about its court case in China, which is far from resolved, and if resolved in AMSC’s favor could be a very good catalyst.
  • GERN had bad news, which may just be cautions that are eventually outweighed by impressive positives.
  • GIG really had nothing to report – except that their disruptive technology may be pushed to even more impressive levels.
  • MVIS had – something – to report. And while there is great debate about what they actually said, the optimistic picture continues to be very optimistic.
  • RSOL even changed their trading symbol to RGSE as they became a player in the solar energy industry consolidation, which is also an expanding market.

None of my stocks have released the key story that propels them to my valuations (present value of future revenues discounted for risk), and yet they’ve seen impressive increases. We’re still a far way from my second semi-retirement, but it is closer.

My portfolio has been in a rough phase. GERN just hit a rough phase. My dreams of relaxed and easy retirement hit a rough phase. And yet –

How about you? Could you handle the occasional very rough “Ouch”? Listen to your answer to that. You may have just told yourself something about how you do or do not want to invest.

Ouch. Ah, it’ll get better.

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A Day Off

Posted on March 12, 2014 by Tom Trimbath

This blog is about finding balance in life. It is based on the book, Dream. Invest. Live. Dream. Invest. Live. Dreaming and Living are essential. Investing is merely a powerful enabler.

As many know I’ve been working hard as I recover from my financial upset, but even with my Rule of 7, I recognize the need for balance.

Everyone deserves time for their self. So, I’m taking the day off to tend to me.

In the meantime, there are plenty of posts to read, dozens of which are popular months or years after I posted them. Saturday’s post was my 400th in this WordPress version of this blog. (There are 220 orphaned posts in an earlier incarnation.) Drewslist, MVIS, DNDN, nose prints on windows, and cobwebs in cars are all popular. Enjoy. And take some time for your self, too.

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Differing Without Begging About MVIS

Posted on March 9, 2014 by Tom Trimbath

I do not beg to differ. I just differ. No begging required. Investing in stocks only works because people have different opinions. Argumentative types fight the very thing that makes the markets work. I enjoy the fact that I don’t have to defend my choices to the rest of the investors. Every stock includes drama. Story stocks do so even more so. MicroVision always manages to create a cacophony. But, isn’t that usually the case with disruptive ideas? In any case, real or virtual ear plugs have their place. But listening is far more valuable.

MicroVision, oh MicroVision. How long have we known each other? Let me check my records. January 2000. Ah, those were the days. The stock (MVIS) dropped in late 1998 and late 1999. The rest of the market looked like a bubble, but MVIS had a fresh idea that might propel it higher as others fell. Oops. It dropped. I bought. I listened to the promising words. It dropped. I bought. Repeat that pattern for years. Then came the change. A CEO that was excellent on rhetoric but not on disclosure and performance was replaced with a CEO who seemed competent, honest and open. The hurdles were revealed. A new plan was in place. I bought. And bought. And bought. Friends bought. And the stock continued to fall. That got embarrassing and MVIS became a topic to avoid. But hey, there was good news. The revealed hurdles were being cleared. Green lasers were a key. Then their cost was key. Then their production volumes were key. The hurdles are all behind us now, right?

I invest in stocks in dramatic companies. Sometimes they don’t seem dramatic at the time. Maybe never. Few folks know f5 Networks. I bought FFIV as it fell during the bubble. Bought more. Bought more. And some of those share that I bought were less than $5 before the stock split. Those shares became the downpayment for my house. The stock continued to rise. On Friday it closed at over $114. (If I’d held those shares I could buy my home for cash. So it goes.) Other stocks seem dramatic along their entire history. America Online started out as AMER. It and the stock were in the news almost every day for years. By the time I sold my shares, AMER became AOL and my profits rose over 2,400%. (Details in my book, Dream. Invest. Live.) Dream. Invest. Live. I wish I’d bought more. As it was, AOL funded a bicycle ride across AmericaJust Keep Pedaling, and a lot more.

MVIS is dramatic, and it is too easy to become too dramatic about it. I can’t recall company with such a small market cap inspiring such impassioned debates, unless they were involved in stem cell treatments (e.g. ASTM). I run counter to conventional wisdom by thinking that emotion can benefit investing; but I agree with conventional wisdom that too much of a good thing is not necessarily good.

Time is a great dampener of emotions. Many investors were eager for last week’s MicroVision conference call. It was listened to, parsed, analyzed, and transcribed. After a quick check to make sure nothing truly dramatic was involved, I stepped away before listening to it. Life presented far more appealing options in the meantime.

We hear what we want to hear. Welcome to being human. For anyone interested in investing (and if you aren’t, I’m amazed you’ve read this far), conference calls and stockholder meetings (aka CCs and ASMs) are free views into management’s management of the company. If you own shares, you own a slice of the company. They work for you. They have to tell you what’s happening – heavily filtered by a competitive screen, or regulations and legalese.

I heard good and bad reviews of MVIS’s call. Then I applied a simple trick. I listened to the replay and took notes. You are welcome to gasp at my sophisticated tools. (How’s your sarcasm detector?)

Did you already click on the link, or are you waiting for my insights? If you are a MVIS shareholder, think about your answer. The call takes less than 34 minutes. Considering the amount of time you can save by improving your financial condition, listening has a very favorable cost/benefit ration. Aren’t we really investing to find more free time?

The managers on the call did a fine job. I can see why some shareholders are enthusiastic. I must differ. While I am not required to defend my position, allow me to point out some disquieting aspects of the call, as well as why I’ll retain some optimism.

A comment was made at last year’s ASM (check my post of more extensive notes.) “What will success for management look like a year from now? “We need a company to bring a product to market” ” We also heard that they were working with five major OEMs and that they expected to announce one or two more deals soon. In this conference call (aka CC) they pointed out the two deals. One was with a Fortune Global 100 company and the other dealt with car components. I’m reasonably sure that I’m not the only shareholder that read “deal” as “product”. Oops. Evidently, development deals are sufficient for management. In the call they mentioned they will be prepared for high volume production in 2H14, for the holiday season, but probably not the North American holiday season. That bizarre bit of wordsmithing sounds more like a dodge than information. They also offered in the Q&A that about half of the original potential customers remain. That suggests at least half of the original possible revenue streams have been reset by months or years.

The good news is that MicroVision is set to produce hundreds of thousand of units for the second half of 2014. Good. But that they may have to take on the risk of enabling that production. Not as good. They can ramp up within three to four months. Great. But that sounds like 2015 at the earliest. Really? I’ve been sitting here since 2000. Ugh. Patience, lad.

A few other notes were notable to a wordsmith. Sony (SNE) was usually named by pronoun, “They” did this or that, just like in the press release. If Sony is locking down mentioning MicroVision, it is not an enthusiastic endorsement. The CEO started with “Y’all know”, which suggests an expectation of the same investors instead of new interest. The company won’t provide financial guidance, but they do look forward to continuing their momentum; but they didn’t put those two together to realize that extrapolating a negative number does not provide a good result.

And yet, I am optimistic; though not as much so as before.

MicroVision only “needs a company to bring a (successful) product to market”. Present value based on present revenue doesn’t justify MVIS’ price. Present value based on EO14 possible revenue is still far less than the stellar hundreds of dollars per share estimates. If MicroVision optimistically made $10 on 500,000 units and the market gave MVIS a P/E of 20, the price is still only $3.14 (based on 31,840,000 shares). (And yes, check my math. We’re all in this together.) That sounds dire. But, multiply that by 10. According to one caller, Sony is guiding for more than 10,000,000 green laser units. Sony isn’t the only customer. The pre-split market cap listing criterion would put the share price at $40. If, if, MicroVision succeeds with more than one customer and multiple products per customer then the multipliers become significant.

The message I really heard though was from the notes I took. Except for the financial report (which I am glad they provided), there were very few quantifiable statements. If I edited out the letters and only looked at the numbers the file contains years and lumens. The CEO closed with the fact that the company had “strong measurable progress”, but we shareholders weren’t provided with that data. The data we received was of losses. I no longer expect sudden relief from any financial woes via a near-term MVIS share price, except via the irrationality of the markets.

I listened and I find myself differing with many of the declared views. The pessimists are too pessimistic. The optimists are too optimistic, for me for now. That’s okay. That’s the way the market works. I also remember one time when I disagreed with everyone else and was wrong. I attended an FFIV shareholders’ meeting. I listened to the CEO’s product strategy, and decided that the company had reached the peak of its growth. I sold enough shares then to sustain me for years now. Evidently, I missed one key phrase that made all the difference. Listening to everything, not just the parts that fit a nice narrative, is most important. So, I won’t beg your pardon as I go back and listen to the community again before deciding to do anything.

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Maybe A Mortgage Modification

Posted on March 5, 2014 by Tom Trimbath

Pardon me as I take a sip as I try to decide where to begin. Ah, a homemade herbed vodka martini. Today I get to celebrate, or at least breath a big sigh of relief. Skip any more suspense. I get to keep my house. It has been almost a year and a half since I had to stop making payments, but we (the mortgage servicer and I) have finally agreed upon payments that I can begin making again. But of course avoiding foreclosure is more complicated and less certain than today’s event and I didn’t do it alone.

Looking forward to days on the deck again

Looking forward to days on the deck again

For those tuning in late, or tuning back in after months of less-than-obviously-positive news, I suggest reading the back posts tagged with mortgage or foreclosure starting with Mesmerizing Mortgage Mediation Meeting. Yes, this story is bizarre enough for the movies. Jon Steward and Stephen Colbert could have a fun time with this tale, and mine is simpler than most.

Last week I teased with a hint of good news that I couldn’t pass along because I’d heard it fourth hand. Considering that Facebook has proved that there are less than 4 degrees of separation between all of us, the news wasn’t exactly direct. And yet, it was correct. My mortgage counselor (paid for by Washington State) had heard from the mortgage servicer’s attorney (one professional to another) that the mortgage servicer (which is not the same as the mortgage holder, which is Fannie Mae) had approved me for a trial period for a mortgage modification. Did you follow that? Imagine trying to keep track of that in real time during a phone call. The offer sounded good, but it was a phone call from an email from a reading of a package that no one had a public copy of. Imagine my enthusiasm and reluctance. I went home, took the night off, drank some champagne, ate a lot of popcorn, and wandered around my house, – my home – and began planning again.

This week I had the audacity to answer my home phone. I haven’t done that much for months. The first episodes with the mortgage servicer convinced me to go so far as to work from another location, preferably use my cell phone because caller-ID let me identify client calls, and tend to only pick up home phone messages after I got back from work. But, this time I worked from home and they called and I answered. They wanted to know what I thought of the package. I figured that “this call is recorded for quality assurance” so I made sure I kept my answer to only what I knew, which wasn’t much. What I did know was that there was a mediation meeting planned for Thursday that included the mortgage servicer, their attorney, the mediator, my counselor, and me. I suggested that if I received the package before then, maybe we could reach an agreement and not have the meeting. They’d dropped this very important document into the regular mail. No Express delivery. No FedEx. They wanted to fax it. I don’t have a fax. I suggested they fax it to my counselor who would scan it and then email it to me. That was how we left it.

Today we had a technological breakthrough. The package was emailed to everyone! Yay! It was emailed within hours of the deadline to call off the meeting. The terms looked good.

I am not surprised when people think that everything is resolved in one event. Avoiding foreclosure because of a modified mortgage sounds like working from a pile of paperwork as thick as any home purchase. That comes later. The “package” was basically a single page that said if I pay said amount by said dates for the next three months, I’ll be eligible to be considered for a modified mortgage at approximately those payments. That’s when the big package arrives. In the meantime, I have to make payments by April, May, and June that are about half of my initial mortgage. Ah. That is just about what I would have to pay in rent for a smaller place. Of course, Yes.

This process is not simple, emotionless, controllable (except with sufficient funds), or uncommon. The only way I’ve been able to navigate my way through has been from a State supported non-profit (Parkview Services) and the long-suffering yet effective coordination with my counselor who they appointed, Ivy Willis. (She’s getting a raise, right guys?) I was lucky enough to make the one call to the one phone number that I had the courage to find in the paperwork that led me to working with free (to me except through taxes) professionals. If I’d tried to field every phone call, try to decipher and answer every letter, and handle the logistics of taxes and insurance I’d probably be much less healthy physically and mentally. Even with such support, friends have suggested that I am experiencing some of the symptoms or PTSD (post traumatic stress disorder). I am not surprised to hear the impact this experience can have on people who try to do this without help.

After the last of the phone calls and emails this afternoon I got back to work. Every hour spent handling the negotiations is an hour spent not making the money necessary to pay the mortgage. I poured a cup of tea and served myself a macaroon made by a friend who owns and runs a chocolate shop.  (Chocolate covered macaroons are marvelous, but I don’t eat enough of them to justify her keeping them in stock. Even the naked ones are good. But thoughts of good food make me digress.) While I stood at my makeshift standing work desk I felt muscles relax. As each relaxed it became obvious how much tension I’ve constrained for years, probably ever since my financial Triple Whammy in August 2011.

I have to thank the people who’ve listened to my tale. Those who, when they asked, “How are you doing?”, actually cared about the answer and listened without judgment. I also thank (gee, this is sounding like the Oscars) the clients who stepped up and were happy to give me more work (particularly New Road Map and HCLE). It has been gratifying. (Hmm, I just realized that I also have to thank myself. I couldn’t have done it without me.) I also thank my fellow taxpayers, and the people who worked at enacting and enforcing such legislation. A lot of people are involved, but there are a lot of us that need the help.

There are chapters of insights and revelations, but I’ll save those for introspection and maybe for subsequent posts. There are months of “trial period” and tentative arrangements within which to pass along anecdotes that may aid others.

For now, it is time to stir the chicken and vegetable soup I’ve made from homemade stock and broth, and then sit quietly absorbing the event, and the moment, and where I stand in the process of returning to not just sustaining, but thriving. And then I’ll have some popcorn – and maybe plan a party. Oh, this really could be good. Thanks for staying tuned.

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