Adaptation And AAM2014

Posted on May 21, 2014 by Tom Trimbath

Have you ever spent four full days thinking about museums? Most people think about museums for a few hours every year, yet museum folks necessarily think about them every day. Me, I think about them about three or four hours a day because I am Project Manager for a virtual museum for about two hours a day (and then my brain can’t just let go.) Museums are excellent at preserving the past. Many people live their lives based on habits developed in the past. The past is something to understand so we can learn and only repeat the good parts of history. Moving onto a better future means actively not repeating the bad parts. Money’s future is changing and so shall I.

Prepare for a long string of words and acronyms. For the last four days I attended the IMG_03632014 Annual Meeting of the American Alliance of Museums conference as the Project Manager for the History of Computing in Learning and Education Virtual Museum project, also known as AAM2014 and HCLE. If you want to read what it was like head out to twitter and check our twitter handle, @HCLEmuseum, and the hashtag #AAM2014. Four days of hanging out with thousands of museum professionals who know the difference between curating and archiving – and are willing to debate the nuances that they may see as enormous. I learned a lot by hanging out with the crowd.

Museums are repositories for history, whether that history is from nature millions of years ago, civilizations millennia old, social issues from the last few decades, or art from last week. Or in HCLE’s case, how education changed as computers came into our classrooms and lives.

The balancing act is between properly preserving the past while making the collections relevant to people in the present so they can enjoy a better future. Vaults are great for preservation, but lousy for access. Hands-on exhibits are great for relevance, but can ruin irreplaceable artifacts.

I witnessed a different type of preservation that is reluctant to change, that also persists in personal finance. Cultures, plans, expectations can be extrapolations or continuations of history and experiences. Museums are continuing to adjust to the dramatic decrease in direct government funding that began twenty or thirty years ago. Instead of tax dollars directly being funneled to well-established institutions, almost everyone is required to spend large percentages of their resources applying for grant money with a minority chance of success. Long term plans have shifted from decades to years because funding is less certain and is delivered in smaller chunks for shorter periods; even while the process of acquiring it has lengthened. Adaptation is happening by necessity, but the remembrance of easier days is hard to ignore. I suspect the change will continue to change.

Personal finance is going through similar changes. Once upon a time, though really for only a short period in our history, the norm was stable employment, steadily rising home prices, reasonably steady investment returns, a promise of comfortable retirement, and an expectation of a better life for the next generation, ad infinitum. Committing to a career made sense. Buying a big house made sense. Locking money away in tax-deferred portfolios made sense. Becoming expert in one skill rather than knowing a lot about a little made sense. To those of you who have had all of those assumptions remain valid, congratulations. To the rest, well, adaption is the only viable option, eh? (You Are Not Your Job)

The scary bit is that, even when you recognize the need for change, there is no guarantee which adaptation is best. One lesson from history is that the future has never been readily predicted, except in hindsight. Another lesson from history is that the more things change the more they stay the same, but standing still is usually the worst option.

One lesson from HCLE is that change is becoming more dramatic, is happening more quickly, and at least in education requires continual adaption.

We are having to learn new ways to live with each new technology, crisis, and insight into our interconnectivity.

This blog would become phenomenally successful if I had all the answers and was infallible. Know of any blogs that fit that description? I am, however, fortunate enough to work with two organizations that unexpectedly intersect: HCLE and my next largest client New Road Map Foundation,

New Road Map Foundation

New Road Map Foundation

an organization advocating personal values-based personal finance. New Road Map’s arena covers the current economy, economic changes, and how individuals can take personal responsibility for their finances. The confluence of ideas convinces me that the changes we’re about to experience have no precedence, only allusions and metaphors.

The things that probably won’t change will be “Spend less than you make.” “Invest the rest.”

The things that may change will be the definitions of Spend, Make, Invest, and even You. Spending may be more related to time than money. Have you heard about time banks? Making may be more related to time and talent rather than income. Investing may be more related to networking (hello social media) than buying stocks or land. You may be the plural instead of the singular. If so, personal finance plans will be more about the person or the community than the finance. If so, institutions like museums may find bigger challenges that shifting from direct funds to grant proposals.

All I know for sure is that, as I pass through my financial turmoil, the greatest lesson I’ve learned has been to study the past, adapt to change, and be flexible about my future.

Catching rainbows when I can, usually just after a storm.

Catching rainbows when I can, usually just after a storm.

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Hope From Potatoes

Posted on May 16, 2014 by Tom Trimbath

Garden commandoes shopping for a getaway kayak

The second most asked question in my life recently has been, “How do you manage to stay so upbeat?” An interesting balance to the most asked question which is, “So, how are you doing – really?” Financial turmoil publicly played out via this blog inspires both queries. The answers are public too, but are easy to overlook because they are simple. Why make hope hard to find? I’ve learned to find it even in a potato.

I am not much of a gardener. Actually, I think I could do reasonably well with plants, but deer, birds, bunnies, slugs, snails, and caterpillars work hard at enjoying every bit of hope I plant.  Every year I feed them seeds, hoping they’ll miss enough to let me harvest a crop. Last year’s harvest? One apple – out of three trees. No figs on the fig tree. None of the pea seeds, bean seeds, corn seeds, or squash seeds produced a meal for me; but something obviously had a feast. And yet I continue to try.

I’m not totally without skill. Evidently I am reasonably good at growing herbs.

The recipe called for a sprig. Wow.

The recipe called for a sprig. Wow.

Bay, sage, and rosemary are doing so well that I have to harvest them just to keep the plants from occupying the driveway.

If any of the vegetables ever produce a crop they’ll be well-herbed.

Of course, one of the reasons my garden suffers is because I am so busy working on six different projects. Each project contributes to my monthly revenue, possibly producing a total that is enough to maintain a mortgage. (I still haven’t heard back from the mortgage company about their choice between offering a modification or deciding to proceed with foreclosure.) The garden may be neglected but the lawn must be mowed. Today’s yardwork made me laugh and gave me another dose of hope.

Thanks to a dear friend who lent me an electric lawnmower I am able to keep up with the growth spurt that is a Western Washington lawn after a wet spring and unseasonably warm days. My person-powered reel mower would be overwhelmed, or at least its energy source would be. While I was mowing the perimeter to provide me with maneuvering room I saw something else in a pile of wooden slats that I keep around for my poor attempts at fencing out the bunnies. A potato plant was growing from under where the slats were stored.

Persistent Potatoes

Persistent Potatoes

I planted those potatoes last year, watched the slugs devour the leaves, and accepted the probable death of the plants. Evidently I was wrong. Good.

Something similar happened last year. Potatoes planted the year before sprouted where I hadn’t expected. (Recognizing Unexpected Positives) I considered it a fluke, and celebrated anyway. The slugs got them too, so I was thankful for the dose of hope, and resigned myself to buying potatoes.

As I mowed past that previous stretch of garden I slowed long enough to see potatoes growing amidst the weeds.

Potatoes? In there?

Potatoes? In there?

I think they do better when I don’t try to help them.

Silly things like volunteered potatoes are easy to overlook, but their success and perseverance are reminders of what is happening in other parts of my life.

Those six projects I mentioned above are doing much better than some potatoes, but there are some similarities. The best ones are building from something that was already there but needed some help; just like the potatoes that weren’t grown from seed but from grocery-bought potatoes that sprouted after being in the pantry too long. Most of those projects can trace back their beginnings to events that may have seemed inconsequential at the time. As with any project, and particularly with root vegetables, it can be hard to see the true progress being made; especially the progress that may persist even when the more visible parts are in distress.

Stacking my bills against my bank balance is scary; especially since income taxes eliminated most of my financial cushion. That’s one time when hope fades. But then I think about the work and casual overtures I’ve made throughout my adult life. There are far more than enough possibilities for more unexpected positives. One very nice possibility is at the decision-maker stage, and is the result of following a friend’s advice about creating an account on a web site years ago that I subsequently forgot about. Another intriguing possibility is in my larger neighborhood and is based on demonstrating trust, discretion, and soft counseling even further back.

Hope is necessary because the need remains. But I’m not expecting hope to do all the work. I’m doing a few things to welcome the opportunities it produces, and I’m learning the value of planting things even if they may not have the best chance of succeeding. Allow me to plant the idea that you may find value in me as a consultant or program manager, or find that you’ll enjoy my books and photos.

DSC_4293

July’s Floating – Twelve Months at Deception Pass

If potatoes with eyes can see themselves through for years and a bit of help from me, maybe they’ll do better when I give them a better place to grow.

Welcome to my kitchen garden. Scraps that others would throw out, or that I would usually compost, are now planted in big pots outside my kitchen. If there’s any hint of green on a potato eye, or a sprouting onion, or a resurgent carrot, I plant enough to give it hope and eat the rest (of course.) The slugs and snails continue their assaults, but with a bit more protection the plants seem to be doing much better than usual. Everything in the kitchen garden is a root vegetable which means I don’t know what’s really growing down there, but maybe, just maybe, I’ll be harvesting something that is sustaining, satisfying, and really quite simple. All it takes is a bit of work and a bit of hope.

DSCN5167

Happy (protected) plants

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Telling Retirement Tales

Posted on May 14, 2014 by Tom Trimbath

Tomorrow night I tell a tale. The tale I’ll tell will be of a year of life in nature in near-wilderness. The fact that I was able to triple the task and turn it into a series is also a tale of what happens to someone who retires, whether because they can or because they must. Ignore the common definition of retirement. Leaving one job or career rarely results in the remainder of life spent on the beach. The new definition of retirement is the redefinition of a life.

It may be hard to believe, but I retired almost 16 years ago. As current events have proved, that retirement was temporary. Want the entire story? Read my book Dream. Invest. Live.Dream. Invest. Live. and this blog reaching all the way back to its first incarnation just after to Barack Obama’s first Presidential election. The short version, an economic crisis, a divorce, a poorly timed house purchase, a second economic crisis, and a Triple Whammy, and I am into an energetic recovery mode that mobilized all my Backup Plans.

Retirement at 38 years old was possible because of a frugal yet comfortable lifestyle, a diverse stock portfolio, the willingness to take on some risk, and some good fortune.

I hadn’t produced a detailed plan for my post-career life. The main theme I’d heard across friends’ anecdotes was to keep busy until you figured out how to also relax. As they’d told me, it took a year or two to simply catch up with the majority of the household chores that accrue around a household. I knew that wouldn’t be enough, so I opened the first door I found, which was to teach karate. Stay in shape, build a business. It sounded like a nice break from corporate politics and stress. Of course things changed. I let them.

I’m old enough that many of my friends are finding their exits, sometimes without a choice. Some have called for advice and guidance about the transition. (Something I do professionally as well.) The answer is simple yet not easy. The good news and bad news about leaving a career is that the best way to adjust is to listen to yourself; not the voices, advice, or role models inserted by culture, media, or peer pressure. Listening to yourself, your Self, is seen as selfish; but it is also necessary. Without the guidance and incentives of a career, guidance and incentives have to be found within. External isn’t nearly as powerful or sustainable as internal.

My karate business faded – and I appreciate my students who trained with me. Shortly after that I bicycled across America and eventually wrote about itJust Keep Pedaling. Writing a book taught me that I liked to write and that I could write a second book better than the first.

In those first few years of retirement I learned that my penchant for persistence and perseverance wasn’t external. It was internal, and a strength. With that in mind, why write one book when I can write a series; especially when it is for an appropriate topic like the varying climates across Washington State’s Cascade mountains. merritt cover I picked three lakes at the border of wilderness along one highway (US2), visited each for a year, and wrote a book about each. Barclay Lake is basically in temperate rain forest and nearest suburbia. Lake Valhalla is at the crest and spends more time under ice than under blue sky. Merritt Lake is as far to the east as Barclay is to the west, so Merritt is hot, dry, open forest prone to fires and Libertarians. I like them all.

I hadn’t planned on becoming a writer. I had to be talked into it. My writing prompted myRock Garden In Green Water art photography, inspired by comments from the audiences and readers who heard or read my tales. With my move to Whidbey Island I became more known for art than anything, except maybe dance. For my first few years here, while I was still apparently financially secure, I worked profit-free plus non-profit workweeks of more than 30 hours a week. At least there was time for drinks on the deck. It was a good thing I kept busy because that work provided a foundation for my subsequent and unfortunately necessary business. It became apparent to me that the artists and entrepreneurs that I knew had great passions and ideas, but sometimes could use someone who enjoyed strategizing and program planning, who was also aware of risk and reward.

My story continues, as this blog demonstrates. Great good news rarely happens suddenly, which is why I am glad for my persistence and perseverance. Though I do admit to wishing the good news would come sooner rather than later. Later can be too late.

A generation in an abstract concept, and yet we group people into Generations. I’m at the tail end of the Baby Boomer Generation. People a few years older than me managed that traditional retirement plan, which really only existed for a few decades. Many seem to be confused about why it isn’t working for everyone who simply works hard. People a few years younger than me have little or no expectation from Social Security, and the corporations behind the few remaining pension plans. Luck seems more powerful than work. Many wouldn’t be surprised to find that the United States of America followed the track of the Soviet Union and splits up. My contemporaries lacked the definition that would make us a generation, until now. I think the people born between the Korean Armistice and the landing on the Moon are getting the opportunity to redefine retirement. Some of us started earlier. The bulk of the crowd is just arriving.

As we redefine the term we will also be rewriting the Conventional Wisdom behind legions of retirement calculators. Business models will be re-arranged. Even unemployment is being shifted as older people decide to stay in their jobs longer for money, benefits, or lack of a better option; which also means that fewer jobs for younger people. My experience may become more common. As we grow older, retirement may be a series of episodes interspersed with a series of careers. The idea isn’t new, but the details can only be found by being lived.

Tomorrow I’ll tell tales about Nature’s cycles within a year. (Thursday, May 15, 6:30 Langley LibraryTwelve Months at Barclay Lake, free) Nothing is static, not even the rocks. Change is inevitable, and it either comes slowly and quietly, or suddenly and loudly. Accept change. Take it at its pace. And tell the tales for they are the source of wisdom.

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Encouraging Work And Play

Posted on May 11, 2014 by Tom Trimbath

Sunday night, my weekend begins. Oops. No, this isn’t a whine, a rant, or a lament. It simply is. It is not, however, news to most entrepreneurs or small business owners. Balancing work and play, money and time, means challenging conventional notions of workdays versus weekends. Old ways of working and living are changing. New definitions are necessary, and much more useful.

So far in 2014 I’ve taken two, maybe three days off. One of those was a sick day. That’s as much time off as most people get in a week. I look forward to my business doing so well that I can take that much time away from it. We’re not there – yet.

The US government tracks the unemployed (as we hear about so frequently), the employed (which is easy to assume is everyone else), and the “not in the labor force” (which is not talked about much.) As of the May 2014 report, there are about 730,000 discouraged workers, people who aren’t counted as unemployed because they couldn’t find employment. That’s the type of definition that I hope wouldn’t make it into the Oxford English Dictionary. They aren’t counted as unemployed because they’ve been unemployed for too long. If they are not being counted does that mean, as far as the US government is concerned, that they don’t count? Does a population larger than Seattle not count?

From what I can gather, at least some time in the last few years the US government considered me discouraged and not in the labor force even while I’ve been applying for jobs and working seven days a week. Maybe I should be more discouraged; but, I’m not.

I’d be more discouraged if I expected to live the same old life by working the same old job that is part of the fading American Dream.

I know a brave man. To slightly alter Horace Greeley, my friend said to himself, “Go East young man”, and he did – with some prompted and encouragement from his friends. “East” wasn’t as important as “urban”. He took a trip away from this rural rock (or pile of gravel) that is Whidbey Island to see what life, and work, might be like in New York City, though any city may have sufficed. He came back, which surprised me; but he came back with different ideas of work and his worth. See what a bit of bravery gets you?

Thirty years ago if a person wanted a change they retyped their resume (with a fresh typewriter ribbon on very nice paper) and started using real knuckles to knock on real doors. The resume era is behind us, mostly. Now it is LinkedIn profiles with purpose-produced videos, and considerable electronic and social networking. He and I passed each other in the grocery store (not even a supermarket) and quickly passed a few business-related possibilities. He smiles a lot anyway. He’s smiling more now. He has an idea that doesn’t fit into conventional models, but it gives him more options in his life – including building up one job while he keeps and possibly improves another.

It is necessary to keep life and play within a day. Work should not take over every moment. I knew he wouldn’t be trapped in just thinking about work. Impressive that he balanced both.

The conventional American Dream rigidly drew limits and boundaries: 5 eight hour days per week, Saturday and Sunday off (to cover two of the common Sabbaths), and a few sick and vacation days sprinkled around. Don’t forget your lunch hour even if it is only forty minutes long. Everyone works the same way, so no explanations required and scheduling parties is much easier.

A new variation is coalescing that differs for everyone, which means it confuses many others. Work as much as you have to, when you need to, but not necessarily all at once. A work day may stretch from some other time zone’s morning into your own evening, but as ease allows there is also time to visit with a friend, tend a garden, watch a sunset,

a short walk from my house

a short walk from my house

and maybe even dance for a song or two.

The transition from the old to the new isn’t instantaneous. Personal values must be pulled out from societal conventions and habits. What matters to the person becomes more important than a possibly anachronistic routine. I continue to make the transition. During my two years of applying for jobs I envisioned getting a job and conforming to their schedule. I’d do that today, for the right situation. But in the meantime I am changing. Change was driven by necessity and because: 1) I was possibly labeled a “discouraged worker” because I possibly fit into “Employers think they are too young or too old, or they face some other type of discrimination.“, 2) my simultaneous efforts to build a business were beginning to produce results, and 3) even when I had a conventional job I was willing to challenge convention.

My quiet Sunday evening is quiet, and I still have about two more hours of work to do as the sun sets. Of course, I’d like to have every evening off; and while we’re dreaming, how about every morning, afternoon, and night off too. While I am typing this post I’ve been sipping a fine beverage that involves ice but no soft drinks, I can hear the birds outside, and I can smell a roast that is in its second hour of slowly cooking.

Roasting while I type. Done by the time you read this.

Roasting while I type. Done by the time you read this.

I actually had to commute today, but I was able to do so in a comfortable work shirt which I’d worn while helping a dear friend restock a wood pile for next winter. Here at the end I am looking forward to comfortable clean clothes, comfort food, and getting comfortable – even with the classic comforts seen in the ads.

I work seven days a week, mostly; as per my Rule of 7. As my net worth increases I’ll take more time off; but like so many other middle-aged people I’m having to quickly recover from a major financial setback while mortality make me simultaneously much more aware of the preciousness of every moment. I work. And I definitely appreciate play, or even the satisfaction of finding some time to help a friend.

With that in mind, don’t be surprised if I don’t wordsmith this post to a high polish. I rarely even pass through a second draft. Life is too precious to spend too much time trying to conform to old habits, others’ expectations, or society’s conventions. Living my life the way I want to live it is the most encouraging way to live I can imagine. As the unemployed become the discouraged, then become entrepreneurs and sole-proprietors by necessity, we may also become one of the most encouraging examples of a new American Dream, of living a new definition of a life.

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MVIS Before The 2014 ASM

Posted on May 7, 2014 by Tom Trimbath

Welcome to the world of investing in small companies. MicroVision’s Annual Meeting of Shareholders approaches yet again. That’s a good sign. That means they hadn’t gone out of business in the meantime. Seriously, the way I describe MicroVision is that the company has great potential and is usually on the verge of collapse (a synopsis). Investing in their stock, MVIS, has not been easy; yet seems to make sense based on the technology, the market, the business model, and their network. Tiny companies inspire enthusiasm, rely on high risk tolerances, and could dramatically benefit from actionable good news. Or they can go broke. Welcome to the world of investing in small companies.

Investing in small companies is properly called speculating, unless the company has years of solid and steady financial growth. Startups don’t have that. They have story. Story is a way to build without a foundation, or to at least draw the plans in the air. Interestingly, MicroVision’s technology may allow such images to be created; but not in something we can buy, yet. (What a holograhic iPhone might look like.) While owning MVIS is speculation, I’ll call it investing. The English language has enough trouble with the word speculating and its variants: spectacle, spectacular, speculation, and spectacles. There’s too much opportunity for mis-communication, especially with my non-English-speaking audience.

I’ve held MVIS stock for over a decade, and for over a decade the promise of success has been interpreted as being within a year or two, to the more recent six to nine months. I say interpreted because MicroVision has rarely communicated in a way where the communiques matched the shareholders’ inferences and the eventual reality. The company may have never violated any SEC rule, and has probably always worked within the Forward-Looking Statements disclaimer yet a quick read of any of the discussion boards suggests that more than enough shareholders feel that the promises were under-delivered.

Last year’s ASM seemed to be the turn-around year (check my notes) because certainly before the 2014 meeting there would be marvelous news. Technology and supply issues were resolved. The prime OEMs were lined up. Announcements were due. Finally, MicroVision’s life that’s been concealed by competitive pressures and restrictive NDAs would begin to be revealed.

A part of me felt that the 2014 ASM (of the 2013 year) must be far away because the only news had been of corporate collaborations instead of product launches, of press releases that mentioned MicroVision in the footnotes instead of the headlines. And then the Annual Report and proxy arrived in the mail. In about a month, MicroVision will host yet another Annual Meeting of Stockholders (which most shareholders replace with a previous acronym of ASM). This is the first year in many that won’t be held at a regional convention center, but at a hotel near the company. I suspect that this year will also dispense with the early opening for the demonstration room where shareholders could spend an hour with the technology, technical staff, and management to better understand the company they partly own.

Before this annual report joined my bulging box of previous annual reports, DSCN5162 I read through it hunting for quantifiable and actionable information. Aside from the SEC required financial reports and the industry expectations I found little from which to evaluate the company. There are plenty of qualitative descriptives of the company, its technology, its partners, and its progress; but little of use in quantitative analyses. There was, however, a disappointment that was effectively a zero; which is quantifiable in a sense. “We also see potential for PicoP display technology in other areas, although we are not currently working with customers. PicoP display technology could be combined with other components and systems to be incorporated into a pair of glasses …” So ends any speculation on whether MicroVision was being considered for Google Glass, or any of the competitors to Google Glass, which is sad considering the large lead MicroVision had years ago in wearable displays.

While rummaging around with my stockpile of annual reports, I also pulled out the tangible results from previous ASMs. Pens, mostly. DSCN5160 A USB drive that’s probably never been out of its sleeve. A notepad or two. One of the pens is actually one of my favorites. I wish I could buy more. It has a red LED near the tip for writing in the dark. Very handy for jotting notes that come to mind during movies or plays. (It’s a writer thing.) That’s the only pen that has more than MicroVision stamped on it. It was the commemorative pen for MicroVision’s first see-through wearable display, NOMAD. At least the pen still works. NOMAD, well, I wouldn’t be surprised to find that many don’t know about it, or Flic, or ROV; and that think MicroVision has yet to announce a product. Except maybe they know about the ShowWX (the grey rectangle), of which I have two. Maybe they’ll be collectables some day.

With the ASM less than a month away there is less than a month for the company to release news that not only satisfies management’s idea of impressive news but also the shareholders’ evidently higher standards. Within the last year there has been good news, but announcements that help the company succeed another year are a lower bar than announcements that the company has arrived technically, financially, and publicly.

A few friends owned shares of MVIS before I became a shareholder. They impress me with their foresight and patience. Too many friends bought MVIS after me and have seen their investments drastically diminish. There is a strong desire amongst a large portion of the US populace to find a way out of their financial situation. Working seven days a week isn’t creating enough income. Living frugally to the point of foregoing healthcare isn’t lowering expenses enough. Lottery tickets have odds of millions to one, and yet they are bought because they are a possibility of more than enough income at a very small expense. Investing in small disruptive companies like MicroVision provide the possibility of less than a jackpot for less of a risk for an intermediate price – and are especially attractive when the disruption if positive.

Optimists know that every day is a new opportunity. MicroVision’s management has described a production capability of hundreds of thousands of units in the second half of 2014. That’s probably millions of dollars of revenue, which is short of the tens of millions that are necessary for profitability. Sony’s products commonly are produced at the tens of millions of units level, and they’ve included MicroVision as a footnote; so maybe a successful Sony product will produce success for MicroVision and MVIS. There are other customers, and maybe MicroVision’s capacity can ramp up to support them all. One success can cascade nicely, especially with MicroVision’s business model. In 2015.

I’ll put the documents aside for a few weeks. Then I’ll try to find a bus route that takes me to the meeting. The gas and other commute fees are bad enough. At least the previous meetings were held by a transit center. Every morning I’ll check the news because despite the company’s reticence, and because of their temporary NDAs, I might wake up to news that exceeds management’s and shareholders’ expectations; and then the ASM will be more party than meeting. Just as I hoped for last year.

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We Listen To Stories

Posted on May 4, 2014 by Tom Trimbath

Let me tell you a story. What else do writers do? Actually quite a bit within non-fiction. But stories are what we listen to in the news, to inspire change, and even in how we handle money. Objectively we know that data may be more important, but as humans we want to hear what is happening to other humans.

On March 22nd a part of a mountain fell on a neighborhood in Oso, WA. At least 41 people were buried. On May 2nd a part of a mountain in Afghanistan fell on Aab Bareek possibly killing 500 to 2,700 people. These are important stories, and I must remain unapologetic for pointing out the dangerous realities of living on this planet. Over 371,000 people are born every day. I am happily unapologetic for pointing out that many celebrations. (And yes, some of them aren’t happy about it; but come on, most of those parents were smiling.)

Statistics can use data to paint whatever picture we want to present. It is difficult to completely encompass every aspect and perspective of any issue. Individual realities reside within the details.

To the vast majority of the population of the planet news stories are statistics flavored with human interest stories, at best. To those involved they were life changing events. Some media outlets skip the statistics and amplify the stories until the anecdotes define the issue. Something that affects 300 Americans every year only affects less than one in a million people. Is that a big effect or a small effect?

Sharks are dangerous, right? Elephants kill ten times for often. Crocodiles ten times for often than elephants. Tsetse flies ten times more often than elephants. Humans kill humans almost fifty times more often than elephants kill humans. And mosquitoes beat them all because they infect people with malaria. But, a shark story is much more interesting than mosquito story, even though the mosquito story is more important.

On the positive side, a royal gives birth, or even just a daughter of a possible US Presidential candidate announces a pregnancy, and the news outlets create employment for hundreds of writers and photographers. Pardon me as I copy and paste with an addition. “Over 371,000 people are born every day.” + “We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal,” Wolfram Alpha meets the US Declaration of Independence. Evidently the reporters missed out on at least 371,000 news stories.

We seek brighter futures. We create stories of better lives based on our ideologies. Dystopic visions persist, but despite any diminishment of the old American Dream, in general the majority of the world’s population looks forward to a higher standard of living. Even some dystopic visionaries look forward to outwitting their version of our anticipated collapse by properly preparing according to their prognostications.

Whenever I am overwhelmed with story I search for the foundation beneath the story that is the data. Currently, there are some of the strongest yet most diverse forces at work within the data that describes our world. On the pessimistic side there is enough data out there to bolster stories about environmental, financial, and societal collapses. On the optimistic side there are encouraging numbers behind the technological (so many to list that it may be its own post), spiritual, and reformatory advances. A lot is going to happen within the next seven years or so, and the outcome is not obvious.

It should be obvious that I enjoy Big Picture topics, but I always try to bring them back to the influence on a personal level.

The two main resources I have for managing my life are my time and my money. Time isn’t money if you have nothing but time. Money means nothing if you have no time. Despite my recent difficulties, I continue to work towards the balance of money and time, or as I put it into the title of my book (and the basis of this blog) Dream. Invest. Live. Dream. Invest. Live. Investing is only a tool for getting from your dreams to the way you want to live.

Investing continues to be one of my possible avenues that can bridge my dreams to a simple, financially independent, sustainable lifestyle based on my values – one of which is to have fun. As such, I listen to story by buying story stocks, stocks that at least temporarily define themselves by stories of possible futures. I only do so though, when I think the data supports them. AMSC building into the massive infrastructure that is the world’s power grid. Geron with its possible effective treatments for many of mankind’s ills. MicroVision with its possibility for disrupting the electronics industry in ways we can’t imagine except that we’ve already witnessed as PCs, iPhones, and the Internet have changed our lives. (That may be a reach, but if it succeeds that well I would be silly to have avoided the potential.)

We listen to story, and we should also listen to more than just the anecdotes, promises, and worries. Data alone may be truth, but it can be so dry that no one tastes it. We know that asteroids orbit past the Earth at, by definition, astronomical speeds; but, as a populace we don’t pay attention until one blows up over a city. Why were so many people injured? They saw a flash of light, went to the window to see what was happening, then as the much slower than light shock wave hit the glass they were cut. They wanted to see what was going on. They didn’t want to miss the story. Now we know that an asteroid or meteorite hits the Earth with the force of a nuclear bomb about every six months. We probably won’t do anything about it until the next story.

I do the same thing when I feel a building shake. Was it a truck going by or did we just have an earthquake? Silly me. Get away from the window.

A story without the data may not have much of a foundation. Data without a story is so grounded that only those who can trip over it will notice it. Whether we seek change in the world around us, our society, or even just our own lives and money it is good to keep the story and the data in mind.

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You Make Me Feel So Young

Posted on April 30, 2014 by Tom Trimbath

I sat down to lunch at a local restaurant, felt a bit annoyed, and then realized it was a symptom of youth. I was reminded that you’re only as old as your thoughts, regardless of what my joints are telling me as I type.

The world changed dramatically in the last thirty years. Russia was part of the Soviet Republic. Anyone talking about the environment was considered a hippy. Gas cost $1.21 per gallon. Computers were something that had to be explained. HCLE We knew we were going back to the Moon any year now. Financial crises revolved around double digit interest and inflation rates, but almost every transaction was still handled by certified professional humans.

Now, some are surprised that Russia is trying to rebuild the Republic. Almost all scientists are worried about not just environmental crisis but actual calamity. Gas costs over $4 at my local station. Computers are so ubiquitous that they are doing the explaining. We’re still going back the Moon, any decade now. Financial crises are taken as a norm, even though interest and inflation rates are near historic lows, and every crisis intimately includes computers. Individuals have more information than ever; but low cost services sometimes reflect getting what we pay for.

Two men sat at the next table. It was early, so no one else was in the place. They saw no reason to be quiet, so the volume went up on their rants about the conspiracy behind climate change, the poor work ethic of today’s employees, and a stream of commentary that I was happy to edit out as my business lunch partner arrived. I am very glad I know people with manners.

As easy as it would be to make even more fun of the two at the next table, I am also a fan of Freedom of Speech. They have a right to their opinions. And Comedy Central would’ve had a wonderful time exercising the Freedom of Speech and The Press by interviewing them.

What I kept in mind is something that I keep in mind with any conventional wisdom. Maybe what is said or claimed is valid if measured against its assumptions and era.

My favorite meteorologist is Prof. Cliff Mass from the University of Washington. He has a very popular blog that extends beyond the local weather. A while back he made the point that Western Civilization was much more sustainable, not because of technology but because of population. Back when there were only 2,000,000,000 people on the planet we had a much smaller effect. The year? 1930. As much as it is a Duh moment for many to realize that fewer people on the planet makes their civilization more sustainable, it also points out that for many people born in that era it is natural to assume that today’s claims of unsustainability are hyperbole. The system worked when they were young. If it doesn’t work now, it must be because the new generation isn’t as smart, resourceful, or hardworking.

A lot of financial advice is handed out based on conventional wisdom developed before 1980, in some cases before we dropped the Gold Standard. Get a degree whatever it takes. Work hard and you’ll get ahead. Devote yourself to a job and it will become a dependable career. Fit in. Buy the biggest house you can afford and grow into it, and then move up every few years. Look forward to a retirement with good benefits and no worries.

A millennial reading that last paragraph might think it is a parody. Student loan debt exceeds mortgage debt, frequently costs more than the career can repay, and can’t even be forgiven by bankruptcy. Working hard is a given, but getting ahead seems to be more about luck. Devoting yourself to a job implies the company won’t get bought out, you won’t get laid off, or some new technology won’t invalidate your schooling. Fit in? Fit into what? Nothing is static. Buying the biggest house you can afford may mean 128 square feet and on wheels (which, if you do it right is actually quite nice.) Cabin by Angela Move every few years? That’s what the wheels are for. As for retirement and benefits, what are they? Worries, well, they’re eternal.

I won’t say that I feel young. My back, hips, knees, eyes, et al cast their votes every day. But I was heartened to hear that I have some of the symptoms of youth, not that I am living a young person’s lifestyle; but I am glad that I am not as trapped by wisdom that only made sense when we, as a species, could be more foolish. Foolish is fun, but when it comes to the essentials of life it is wiser to be aware of current reality. And current reality is considerably different than 1984’s reality.

I offer my point of view and opinion as a point of departure for others who are redefining conventional wisdom.

  • The climate is changing. I’ve seen more than enough of the data and witnessed too many of the effects to deny it. The systems analyses are scarier still which is why I’m not surprised when I hear that the change is accelerating faster than predicted.
  • Energy is changing. I know more people with electric vehicles or hybrids than people with pickup trucks. The list of bicyclists is too long to write down.  Solar, wind, and efficiency are becoming the norm.
  • I don’t know anyone under the age of 60 who wants a bigger house. Tiny houses are appealing for many reasons, and I even have friends who not only live in them, but also help others build them.
  • Space is commercializing, yeah. But too late for my career or me, evidently.
  • A resume is an anachronism. Lists of job experiences on LinkedIn replace the carefully typeset prose on perfect paper presented professionally. Resume bots have blanks that must be filled in. Remember your username and password. We’ll get back to you. Oh yeah, and word-of-mouth still works best. (Some things don’t change.)
  • Investing is so driven by financial institutions and large cap stocks that individual investors like me have withdrawn to what were considered penny stocks. And in many cases, I understand why people are investing peer-to-peer despite the risks.
  • Even currency is coming into question. The last time it was questioned was when we gave up the Gold Standard, but now alternative currencies are arising because the dollar and Euro are no longer considered as standard as they were as recently as 2007. Even paper and coins are being replaced by cryptography.

Put all those effects together and personal finance plans require new analyses and options.

A sign of youth is the willingness to challenge authority and assumptions. It was heartening to hear the contrast between what those men said and what I know. Whether they were right or wrong, their conversation seemed more of a desire to reinforce an image that existed when they were younger and “righter”. I may do the same thing eventually, if I haven’t already started.

So, celebrate any dissonance you have with conventional wisdom. Conventional wisdom is being redefined by those that challenge authority and assumptions, and if that’s you too, then celebrate your symptoms of youth. And don’t be surprised if that retirement calculator asks questions that are laughably inappropriate.

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Off The Market

Posted on April 27, 2014 by Tom Trimbath

See anything different? DSCN5128 The For Sale sign is gone. My house, my home, is off the market – for at least a while. Welcome to yet another episode in “Maybe I Get To Keep My House”. After two years of trying to sell it, I decided to take my house off the market just as a possible mortgage modification is coming through, and as the local real estate market makes agents busier than they’ve been for years. Things change. Things stay the same. What’s news about that?

  • In the summer of 2011 my finances were hit with a Triple Whammy. But hey, I’m an optimist. They’ll come back.
  • By spring of 2012 my finances hadn’t come back, despite my optimism. If things didn’t improve quickly and significantly, I wouldn’t be able to pay the mortgage. Evidently, it was time to sell my house, my favorite home. I put it on the market at the same price I’d bought it for five years earlier.
  • In the fall of 2012 my finances hadn’t recovered. None of my Backup Plans were working at full force. I was paying the mortgage from my IRA, and my IRA was almost empty. I stopped paying my mortgage. The emotional pain was surprisingly intense. The Mortgage Company Tactics didn’t help.
  • In the spring of 2013 the mortgage company finally posted a Notice of Default on my door. The next step would be the all-too-common foreclosure notice. Ah, but there was a phone number on the notice. I’d had such bad experiences in previous communications, but this one promised to be with an independent third party, Parkview Services. Their advice steered me into a beneficial delay, and then mediation based on an intimate and experienced knowledge of the foreclosure and mortgage modification process that few homeowners could attain.
  • During the summer of 2013 a trusted friend and real estate agent who has seen me through several deals agreed to take over from the previous agent. Kath has seen me in the midst of intense stress before, and knows how to communicate with this somewhat-stubborn ex-engineer.
  • Through the summer and fall of mis-scheduled meetings we (the mortgager, Fannie Mae; the mortgage servicer; the mediator, my counselors at Parkview, and me) finally came up with a schedule for a possible mortgage modification.
  • Thank my two biggest clients (HCLE and NRM) who readily agreed to double my hours and give me a raise in the fall of 2013. My business income increased enough to at least pay rent, and maybe qualify for a modified mortgage.
  • Good news arrived in the late winter of 2014. I was offered an trial payment plan that would possibly qualify me for a modified mortgage. The payments are about the same as rent. Good.
  • Here we sit, spring of 2014. The real estate market boom finally crosses the moat from the mainland to the island. My agent friends are busy. The mortgage modification may be offered within the next few weeks. These are dynamic times.

To those of you who skipped past the bullets, I don’t blame you. The details of this history do not make for a simple story. We are comfortable with the simple and the quick. As this situation flows around me I’ve come to realize why less is said about the personal stories behind foreclosure. Take a look at that lineage. That is the simple version, and its latest episode includes a twist.

I took the house off the market because the amount I owe has risen every month that I haven’t paid the mortgage. Even the trial payments I am making do not necessarily keep the penalties from accumulating. As of April the amount that I owe probably couldn’t be covered by a full-price offer. A full price offer a couple of months ago may have left me with some money for the first, last, and deposit for a rental; but the market wasn’t active then. The market is so active now that I’ve had more showings in the last few weeks than I had in the previous year and a half; but selling now would possibly cost me thousands of dollars.

Such stories don’t play well in the press. They don’t fit into a 30 second sound bite. If you skipped the details you can appreciate the time constraints of a reporter trying to compile the best story in the shortest time. And as I said above, my story is simpler than most. A relatively healthy single guy with no dependents, only one mortgage, who lives frugally and responsibly, with advanced education in a key field, whose mortgage wasn’t underwater at the start because he put 20% down. Imagine how complicated such stories get with health issues, divorces, kids, second mortgages, and poor employment prospects. When the news gets complicated the press tends to report the stats rather than the stories.

It is good to get my home off the market. Of course I hope the mortgage modification comes in as suggested by the trial payments. There’s a lot I want to do with the house that only makes sense to tackle if I am going to be here for years. I still haven’t planted this year’s vegetable garden because I don’t know if I’ll be here to tend it.

But the sage and rosemary are doing well.

The sage and rosemary are doing well.

My house has only marginally been “staged” to appeal to potential buyers; but now I can pull the coat rack out of the closet, put the messier bits of a real kitchen back onto the counters, not worry about strangers having access to my personal stuff, only make the bed (er, futon) when I want, and maybe finally move the standing desk out to where there’s a good view (which happens to be beside the kitchen).

A few conversations with neighbors marked the difference between perception and reality. They both saw me as doing “really well now”, based on – what? I don’t know. We work from illusions. Graciously, each listened to my story, and I appreciate their listening. One couple shared their story too. They too were on the edge, but no one could tell from the way they act, the appearance of their home, or from what they’ve made known. The simple story that all is fine is a fine one to leave their neighbors with, except I guess for neighbors like me who sincerely and honestly answer questions that are usually avoided. Proprieties aside, people appreciate truth.

A dear friend asked where I thought I’d be in thirty years. That is the easy question to answer. I am an optimist. I expect to be in a much better place. I even hope to be somewhere better within the next three years. But the next three months, weeks, or days are less certain – which I guess is no change for any long-term optimist and short-term realist as myself. And possibly also the case for the quiet crowd living through similar circumstances. May you experience the change you wish to see. Now, that would be news.

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You Are Not Your Job

Posted on April 23, 2014 by Tom Trimbath

A friend lost a job. How often have you heard that one? How often has it been their fault? Lately, losing a job means a corporation downsized, outsourced, or randomly re-organized. Decades ago losing a job probably meant doing something wrong. Now it means being in the wrong box on the organizational chart, or being on the wrong side of a line in some spreadsheet. Unfortunately, a lot of attitudes and perceptions are based on a society from decades ago. Now, young people are the wise ones because they know that careers are an illusion, every job is temporary, but who you are prevails. The trick is to make that nice sentiment mesh with commitments like thirty year mortgages. And yes, it can be done.

I can think of two or three people who have lost their jobs for personal reasons. Nothing that a bit of maturity won’t change. Learning to play well with others is tricky. Almost everyone else I know who has passed or is passing through unemployment was launched into that financial space because a company either ran out of money, or wanted to make a lot more regardless of the cost. The quick list includes vice-presidents of marketing, technical experts in artificial intelligence, programmers with multiple degrees, engineers from every field except petrochemical, linguists, healthcare professionals, information specialists, and at least a few ex-professionals so upset that they’ve become reclusive at the very time they have to step into uncomfortable change.

Corporations lobby Congress to allow more foreign workers to fill critical skill gaps at the same time that I can run into folks with such resumes just by walking into the local coffee shop. I sense a dysfunction that I can’t solve.

The ex-professionals who rebounded the quickest emphasized their expertise and re-created themselves as consultants. Their jobs may have been taken away, but their skills stayed with them. Self-employment requires a new set of skills, but it comes with a large dose of freedom. Take a severance package, if you’re lucky. Take a month or two off because the last few months or years were probably in a stressful position, and then fix up the resume (and the LinkedIn profile) and get in touch with the network that was developed over years.

The ex-professionals who have the most fun are the ones that, with the time to look at their finances, realize that they could retire. It is easy to get so wrapped up in work that a house and a portfolio have quietly grown to more than enough. Yes, you can take money out of your IRA while you are young. The best way to find out is to try, and be willing to change back if necessary.

The ex-professionals who grow the most are the ones who, through choice or necessity, find within their self more skills and talents than their job ever let them develop. Either through entrepreneurship or non-profit participation, there are plenty of ways to grow that have nothing to do with corporate America, and they can pay nicely in both money and satisfaction.

I was an Aerodynamics Stability & Control engineer (don’t worry about what that means), but I was also good at a lot of things that weren’t included in the title: program management, strategic planning, team facilitation, presentations, cross-team coordination, etc. (Check my bio for a long list.) Each was enjoyable for different reasons. And yes, I actually enjoy program management and the rest. Go figure. But then I also learned that I was reasonably good at writing, photography, teaching, and public speaking. I was more than my job title. I am more than any label slapped on me, though I do rather like the title of Renaissance Man.

As people live longer we are redefining retirement. Even assuming a career that lasts until Social Security kicks in, an idea that is foreign to many, when retirement arrives it is necessary to redefine your role. The money is important, but personal values eclipse finance. That can seem like a blithe statement, but losing the identity associated with a job is the best time to concentrate on what should never be lost, a person’s morals and ethics.

Let’s not oversimplify things though. As much as personal finance should be about the person, finances happen. I’m very aware of how money flows can direct a life. I’m also aware of how hard it can be to find a corporate job. (My Jobs Report) That’s the reason for action and backup plans.

As I’ve said before, I’m asked how I’ve managed to stay positive throughout my turmoil.

  • One, I haven’t done a video of my head-banging sessions.
  • Two, I know that a bit of complaining is necessary, but that things will get better quicker if I concentrate on the better parts of my life.
  • Three, I’ve recognized that much of what I am going through has less to do with me than it is does with dysfunctions in the system. And
  • Four, I have learned better and deeper than ever what my true values are, old attitudes that really didn’t matter, and what I won’t compromise regardless of money.

The world of my first mortgage was very different. I’d be within four years of paying it off. ARPAnet was being replaced with the Internet, but hardly anyone knew it. The fears of climate change were being debated but they were overshadowed by the threat of Mutually Assured Destruction. Stocks were still traded between people instead of computers. And careers were what people aspired to. Retirement plans were simply assumed.

A lot has changed. Personal values haven’t. For anyone working at that time, decades of training and experience have developed impressive skills, talents, and wisdom. The world still needs such people. Corporations may dismiss them in batches; but ventures, philanthropies, charities, and personal passions can benefit from incredible people. Redefine yourself and give them the chance to benefit from you, and you from them.

PS It looks like another round of job shuffling is in action. If you another outlet for your story I can include you in my Find A Friend A Job posts (#FAFAJ). Another valuable thing no one can take away is the support we give each other.

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Ruts Routines Revolutions

Posted on April 20, 2014 by Tom Trimbath

April 20th, a fine day for a party. A fine day to celebrate the break from tradition that was the beginning of the Revolutionary War. Most folks thought April 20th, 2014 was Easter. Well, yes; but someone had to spend time “paying homage to this nation’s radical dissident forebears”. Friends held a party. I had to go. One of my ancestors signed the Declaration of Independence, that radical. Breaking from traditions has been a recurring theme, recently. That’s okay. As Thomas Jefferson said, “I hold it, that a little rebellion, now and then, is a good thing, and as necessary in the political world as storms in the physical.” Occasionally stepping into and then breaking out from traditions, ruts, and routines is healthy.

Thursday night I gave a talk at a local library. The Friends of Langley Library hosted my talk about my most recent book Walking Thinking Drinking Across ScotlandWalking Thinking Drinking Across Scotland. They’re a brave bunch because I rarely know what I am going to say. To me, what the audience wants to hear is more important than what I want to say, though I make sure I slip that in too. Evidently I do it well enough because they’ve asked me back for next month too. (I’ll talk about the year-round wilderness that is the Washington Cascade Mountains.)merritt cover

Usually I start before the introductions by chatting with the early folks about their stories. No need to repeat things they know. Good to know the hooks that allow me to spin off from their comfort zones. This time we broke with tradition by including traditional music. Bagpiper Don started the evening by playing the small pipes (and who is also entrepreneurially embarking on non-traditional ways of making income, like making and selling biscotti.)DSCN5097 His playing took me out of my comfort zone, but entertained the audience which was more important. The change in routine fit in nicely with the opening passage that I read from the book, and was a reminder that I should be willing to change.

“We build ruts. We build them out of habits and for a purpose, even if we don’t realize it. Our ruts keep us in the vicinity of what we think we need and aim us towards a goal we expect to reach. A rut is a person’s self-built one-dimensional maze that includes walls and a picture of cheese. If it is a deep enough rut the horizon becomes the top of the trench that we can’t see over. The world shrinks to something that seems controllable where everything except the end is within reach. We humans are very good at putting ourselves into silly situations.” – Tom Trimbath

Lately I’ve been in a rut that I’ve consciously built to make enough money to keep my house and pay my bills. Stay tuned. The next few weeks will tell whether I’ve satisfied the mortgage servicer. In the process of working within that very productive rut I’ve witnessed the distancing that happens with everything outside of it. Personal traditions of how I rested and recreated are obviously removed. I’m willing to stay within this rut because I am aware that it is temporary and also because I have no other obvious rut to switch to. The goal nears and then change will happen.

In the last row at the talk was a woman who left early. I didn’t take it personally. Free talks carry no commitment and with so much to do on Whidbey I expect about 20% of the audience will arrive late and 20% will leave early. It turns out that she is challenging her lifestyle as well. What I call ruts she calls routines. While I’ve broken out of mine by bicycling across America or walking across Scotland, she’s breaking out by traveling the world one place and month at a time. Every month will be a mix of old traditions that tag along, new ones from the place she’s moved to, and an inevitable blend that will help redefine her life. Her story is just beginning, and she’s chronicling it. Tune in.

There are a lot of people who feel that they are in ruts that they didn’t choose, ruts imposed on them. Or maybe they chose that rut, but it was a choice from a selection of one, all others being illegal, immoral, or improbable. While many people are cheering a recovering economy, I know too many people who wonder how their job or business will ever lead to anything better than what they know now. Quite a few conversations end with jokes about the lottery, MVIS (which may be the same thing), or apocalypses that are personally positive. If the currency markets crash a struggling farmer or excellent is suddenly the richest person in the neighborhood – and if you know how to brew beer, congratulations.

Local unconventionally traditional eggs - not sorted by size or color

Local unconventionally traditional eggs – not sorted by size or color

It can get dark in those ruts and a friend asked me how I manage to pump sunshine into mine. Looks can be deceiving, and yet, maybe my attitude means my rut is better lit than most. Pardon me as I reach for the light switch.

In America we underplay the role of luck. If you are successful, you get all the credit; and the few that are wise humbly acknowledge the contributions of others. The sad part is that policy and perceptions are driven by the corollary. If you aren’t successful, then it must also be your fault.

Effort and luck both contribute to a person’s life path. Where and when you were born matters. Hard work improves your chances generally, unless you’re working on the “wrong” thing. Jobs openings aren’t filled by every hardworking applicant; but are filled by one applicant who is probably hardworking and who possibly stood out from some lucky connection they made with the employer. The rest of the hardworking applicants have to work hard at applying again, and possibly eventually turning to entrepreneurship (check out Ideaworth’s blog).

The extremes are easy to talk about because their lives make good stories, and we enjoy good stories even if they are dramas instead of comedies. Some people seem to sail through life trusting merely to luck, or to mentally manifesting their future. Others work every day and struggle to the end. But there are also those who mentally manifest a fantastic future – right up to an unfulfilled end. While others may work hard, and find they picked just the right job at the right time despite bad luck.

My optimism reaches in by reminding me that, even while my life feels like an extreme, almost every life includes a mix of effort and luck. Persistence is the great enabler. As long as I persist, and as long as I remain aware of other possible routines, I know that in general that combination of effort and luck will prevail.

Look at the American Revolution. A baker’s dozen of colonies that were much too young, small, and poor stepped out of ruts established over centuries. Despite a string of defeats that should have led to unconditional surrender and retributions, they persisted through effort and luck – (and the French, but it isn’t fashionable to point that out.)

Look around at your ruts and routines. They may serve you well, but it may also be time for a little revolution.

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