Saying Yes To Startup Dreams

Posted on July 13, 2014 by Tom Trimbath

A friend called up with a new idea. It will probably only cost a bit of time and effort – and who knows where it will go? I’m honored to be included. New ideas are what we need, and they need a bit of energy and enthusiasm to get them started. Of course, I’d be happy to help. The possibility of getting paid to help is even more enticing. Mega-corps, world-changing charities, political shifts, and awesome art have all been spawned by such simple phone calls. My love of people and ideas, and my background in technology and business mean I get a lot of such simple calls. I have to say No a lot, but it feels so good to say Yes.

Lately, saying Yes has been emotionally supportive, but only occasionally financially so. The most initiative making the most progress has been the Virtual Museum for the History of Computing in Learning and Education (HCLE). I’m helping Liza Loop build her online museum, a museum that will eventually require a reasonably large staff, but that for now is mostly Liza, me, and a few volunteers. We few, we happy few. Almost all of the rest of the projects are inching along, slowly growing while waiting for the right funds or people to clear their immediate hurdle. A variety of blogs, retail businesses, services, inventions, philanthropies, and a lot of innovative ideas that don’t fit into clear categories are sources of optimism and conversation, but not much else – for now.

Why spend so much time on ideas that don’t pay? My passion is for people and ideas; and, I think the world needs new ideas or a refreshing of some resourceful old ideas. Working on ideas for no pay can be fun, but only when there’s enough money from something else to cover the bills.

A friend called up with an idea for a blog that will be a series of video interviews. Dawn Griffin has a book about personal transformation coming out this autumn, and wanted to start a public conversation about people who have stepped beyond their limiting beliefs. She was nice enough to invite me to be the first interviewee, an honor; which is possibly helped along by the fact that I am somewhat comfortable working through technical glitches and fluid artistic concepts.

Besides, it was fun talking to Dawn. She even suggested that I may get to be an interviewer (paid?) if the idea catches on. If you want to see how far video blogs can go, check out vlogbrothers, myharto, or vsauce on YouTube. Each had a simple idea that had a bumpy start that matured through persistence into something awesome.

I know dozens of entrepreneurs who understand enthusiasm and potential. The ones I deal with usually have already taken the steps to realize that they can’t do it all on their own. I’m happy to help. It is a joy to see fresh ideas unbesmirched by dismal assaults of pessimism. Many ideas have succeeded because their proponents didn’t know the conventional wisdom that predicted their failure. Making movies on computers? Pixar can never succeed. Selling coffee as if was some premium product? Starbucks is just silly. Making and selling grain-less granola or home-made biscotti? Primal Island and Biscotti Journey haven’t a chance in the world of super-mega-markets – except they might. Whether they hire me or not, I’m happy to hear about their plans.

Yet, here I sit, wondering if my Backup Plans will establish themselves into an enjoyable, sustainable, long term lifestyle. Why persist?

Businesses grow, if they are tended and have some good luck. Mine has grown and provided me some enthusiasm, though revenues have yet to reach that critical threshold that provides some ease as well as paying the bills.

Portfolios grow, if they are tended and have some good luck. Mine has been languishing, yet my semi-annual review provided me with a bit of confidence again. Reflecting on my pre-2008 performance provides me with a lot of confidence (see my book, Dream. Invest. Live.Dream. Invest. Live. for data and details.).

Enthusiasm and confidence don’t pay bills, but persistence provides the energy and time to allow very good things to happen.

I invest in small companies and plan to sell their stocks when they are large companies. Every large company was small originally. Some have had extraordinary IPOs, but I avoid those. I invest in the small companies with big ideas that are hard to evaluate because their main assets are enthusiasm and confidence. If they can demonstrate persistence, so can I (though a few like GERN and MVIS are testing that.) That is the basis of my version of LTBH, Long Term Buy and Hold. Finding an investment early enough that others have overlooked it, which also means it is usually undervalued, i.e. cheap; and then holding until its value makes my life easier to live.

There is an oversupply of good ideas in the world. Unfortunately, the vast majority of the resources go to old ideas, entrenched companies and concepts, and institutions that have forgotten how to change. I may not have much money, but I invest it where I think it needs to go while honestly acknowledging that I hope to make a large profit. I have as much time in a day as anyone; so I am glad when I can spend it furthering one of my ideas or a friend’s idea. Inevitably, money and time are constrained to the point that I have to say No; but at least I know that up until that point I got to say Yes. If I generate the money that allows for ease, then I get to say Yes more often. Someone saying Yes is what turns idealistic dreams into fascinating realities. Why wouldn’t I want to do that?

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Weed Changes Whidbey

Posted on July 8, 2014 by Tom Trimbath

Today I walked into a store in Washington, bought a mood-altering drug that was recently illegal, and knew I could enjoy it if I treated it with respect. Its legalization has led to the undermining of criminal drug organizations and, despite its stigma, is part of normal society for many. There was even a reasonably good supply. As of a few years ago, I can buy Kentucky Bourbon in the grocery store. I almost bought some marijuana at the small strip mall nearby, but the plant that is healthier to ingest, less processed, has fewer calories, won’t break if I drop it, and is more useful in cooking hadn’t arrived at the new store on the island: Whidbey Island Cannabis Company.DSCN5462 Instead while I type this post, I’m enjoying an icy bourbon and soda on this hot summer day. Regardless of me and my actions, a world is changing.

Think there’s no stigma against alcohol? To many it is a guilty pleasure that must be prefaced with assurances that the drinker is not an alcoholic. Even in the open and liberal and libertarian society that is my neighborhood, considerable levels of guilt are dealt. The Prohibition against alcohol was repealed in 1933 in most, but not all of the US. Since then there have been enough drunk driver deaths and other abuses that there is considerable reason for caution; but the levels of violence, criminal activity, and hypocrisy that existed during Prohibition were far worse.

Marijuana’s stigma is different. The hype against marijuana was more political and ideological than medical. The legality is far fresher. Only Colorado and Washington State have made recreational marijuana use legal. That means at least two states allow a dramatic lowering of the hypocrisy barrier. Today’s twitter traffic had a chorus of alarmist hyperbole that had little or no substantiating data; especially, when compared to the amount of scientific and usage data. Yet, positive data aside, hyperbole fuels negativity and stigmas are reinforced. It will be interesting to see if marijuana’s stigma subsides faster than alcohol’s.

I didn’t plan to drop by the store today. According to my calendar I had meetings and work in the morning, and another set in the afternoon. But, a cancelled meeting in the morning opened up some time, and the history buff in me wanted to witness the historic event. The day Prohibition was repealed is splashed around with videos of parties and public celebrations. Marijuana’s celebration would probably be much more mellow, but historic in any case. Why pass up the opportunity to greet history? Besides, I knew the person opening the store and wanted to see how well it worked for her. I probably wouldn’t buy any because I have enough bills to pay, and yet . . .

Washington State only authorized 25 stores to open. This could get much more interesting. Fewer places opening. Fewer places to buy. Fewer places to line up. How long a line could we get on our island; especially, when all of Seattle only had one store opening, too? I might get to witness a media circus.

I planned to bicycle to the shop, but a flat tire and a time crunch meant I drove. Well, if there was a crowd I’d take advantage of the fact that a half-mile walk from a parking spot wouldn’t be an issue. Besides, I could bogart some wi-fi from the parking lot and get some work done first.

There wasn’t a line. An hour’s work later, there still wasn’t a line. I walked up to one of Whidbey’s less appealing strip malls, that did have the appeal of meeting all of the community boundary conditions of distances from schools, parks, and churches.  (The strip mall does have a good Mexican restaurant and karate dojo.) DSCN5461There was an open door, and there was one of my fellow bloggers, Sean, who writes for @CurbedSeattle. We talked a few days earlier. Neither of us planned to buy, but we wanted to watch. Wold CNN actually make it to the island?

It was still an hour before opening, but the door was open. Why not walk in? The room was empty except for one poster on the wall, a ribbon barrier, and a sign that said “Line Forms Here.” The counter was empty. The store looked empty. There were echoes. The guy running the place came up to his side of the counter and stood for a chat. Yes, they planned to open on time. Yes, the media came and went – much earlier in the morning. No, they had nothing to sell. Oops. That explained the empty counter. Everything about opening the store happened so quickly that they barely had time to get the walls put up. They only thing they had to pass out were state pamphlets.

Talk about stigmas - the web site is hosted by the Alcohol and Drug Abuse Institute

Talk about stigmas – the web site is hosted by the Alcohol and Drug Abuse Institute

Evidently, Washington State was simultaneously cautious and abrupt. Of the 300 licensees, 25 were given ten days notice that they’d be the ones to open first. As I understand it, the State would arrange the deliveries and define the prices. Only a few growers and processors were legally authorized, so only about 400 pounds to 500 pounds were harvested, and only about 22 pounds were properly inspected. 25 stores were going to open with only 22 pounds of product. Imagine running a store like that.

Sean and I settled into spots on the sidewalk just to see what would happen, at least for a while. If there was a line, the two guys who hadn’t planned to buy anything (at least not on the first day) were it. People drove up, got out, heard the news, and usually pleasantly shrugged and drove away. (Except for one very agitated woman who was so upset she almost got into a wreck as she spun off to Seattle, hoping to get some there.) After about thirty minutes we had a line of four. If we were a circus, we were a mellow and small one. Jokes were involved.

About two dozen people dropped by while we waited. It became obvious that people who had experience with marijuana didn’t stress out about it. Maybe it is an island thing, but hey, they’d come back later. Few if any had no experience. Those with decades of experience, including one man who’d been advocating for this since 1965, took this slight delay as just that. Whidbey is rural. Things grow here. They possibly already had a supply and just wanted to be part of the event.

And yet, it wasn’t a non-event. The legalization of marijuana is having a similar affect on the drug cartels that the repeal of Prohibition had on the Capone-era mob wars. As the legal product becomes more available, there’s less demand for the illegal product; the prices of both drop, consumers and producers who had been criminals could now be tax-paying citizens, and the violence and hypocrisy diminish. As a fiscal conservative and a social liberal, I am excited about the prospect of the government turning an expense into income, and people finding a safe and possibly healthy alternative to alcohol while also finding less violence in their neighborhood.

The world is changing. People are hunting for solutions and challenging assumptions. The search for solutions is one reason for the positive hype. People want to try something new, or at least know that they have more rather than fewer options. Something similar is happening with BitCoins. BitCoins generate a lot of news, conceivably are a viable alternative currency; but, there’s very little real activity. I’ve opened my business to accepting BitCoins weeks ago and have yet to receive even an inquiry. Marijuana legalization is big headlines, yet the total number of purchasers is small. Maybe BitCoins will become a currency as large as a moderate nation, but that’s a long way off. Maybe marijuana will become as pervasive as alcohol, but this bud’s for you will continue to mean beer, not weed for a while.

The world is changing because a few people in a few places are willing to ask key questions and act on the answers. Thanks to all who have done so.

Now, if you’ll excuse me, it is time to enjoy another government regulated product for which some hold a stigma – a steak; after which it would be nice to learn that I’d won the lottery jackpot, which is another stigma-prone government regulated product.DSCN5471DSCN5466

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Stress Socks It To Myself

Posted on July 6, 2014 by Tom Trimbath
DSCN5455

Yes, socks + sandals.

I did a silly thing. I put on my socks. That’s how I tweaked my back. That’s how I know I’ve been carrying too much stress for too long. A bit of stress is good. A lot of stress is bad. For my sake and our sake, I hope this level of stress is temporary. Beneath furrowed brows, clenched jaws, and hunched shoulders are crowds of people ready for a break – hopefully in a good way.

Conventional wisdom loves cause and effect. Back pain? Something physical must be damaged. In my case, I know I have a compressed disk. Sometime during July 1988 I managed to compress a disk either through severe dehydration or physical impact. It was either running a marathon without sufficient water. (I became so thirsty that I inadvertently drank from a bucket being used to wash sweaty runners.) That could shrink a disk. I was also probably dehydrated on my climb up Mt. Rainier, though dropping into that crevasse probably didn’t help. And then there was the karate class where I was dropped on my head. (Go ahead, insert your joke into the Comments section. I might allow it to be posted.) July 1988 was an interesting month, and it certainly wasn’t dull.

Fortunately, there are other versions of conventional wisdom. Some of the more systemic approaches ask less about the immediate cause and more about the underlying aspects of an individual’s life.

It may sound silly at first, but there’s an analogy in personal finance, the concept of the gazinga. A gazinga is something a person feels compelled to buy repeatedly. The cause of someone being unable to save money may be that they feel compelled to buy yet another flashlight, or yet another tea pot, or yet another pair of shoes. The simple answer is to say, quit spending that money. The more effective question is, what do you hope to gain that the last flashlight, tea pot, or pair of shoes didn’t provide? It may be that there’s a need to be prepared for every power outage, even if they’re uncommon and there are already more flashlights than people or rooms in the house. It may be that a tea pot is a reminder of quieter and simpler times. But the other tea pots can be reminders, too. Shoes may attract attention, which isn’t being found other ways. Rather than saying don’t spend, understand what it would take to feel secure, or peaceful, or appreciated; all of which may not take any money.

A friend posted a video in 2012 that changed my perception of my back pain by his description of his back pain; which he posted as part of a video.

He hurt his back, by doing too much, because he felt it had to get done, because there were external pressures, that were brought on by a personal crisis – but – wait, of course the emotional issue was the ultimate cause.

Just like with my socks. I put on each sock while on the other foot, because that’s good karate balancing training and practice. Which was me adding another stressor into my life because I don’t have much free time for my regular karate practice. Which I don’t have because, by working seven days a week I’m able to probably keep my house, which is great, and which means I’m working seven days a week. Which is something I am doing because I want to see myself as a responsible person properly maintaining a conventional home, and because I enjoy living in a house that is owned by me. Which is something I place so much emphasis on that I am worried about the fact that I haven’t been paid by my three biggest clients for my June work and that the bills are coming due at the end of the week, and that amidst this I am determined to maintain my optimism because this is much better than the situation I was in last year. But carrying all of that tension is not just mental or emotional. It cascades through my muscles and nerves, such that a slip of a foot as I put on a sock can upset the practiced and choreographed alignment of the muscles protecting my compressed disk. In less than a second, a nerve is irritated, the muscles rush back to protect, and a spasm confuses everything in the vicinity. My back hurt, not because of a sock, but because I wasn’t relaxed, was asking too much of myself, and not trusting that everything is going to be alright.

The idea that cause and effect goes deep has been reinforced by every healer I know, even my Western doctors. Got a sore throat? Maybe it is a cold, but maybe I had something to say but felt like I wasn’t allowed to say it. Got a sore neck? Maybe it is bad ergonomics, but maybe it is because I’ve been working hard at keeping my head held high.

Deeper causes are being explored in healthcare, but not in personal finance. Finance is just about money, right? Personal finance questions go as deep as those in healthcare.

Rote retirement plans, proscribed saving rates, dictated ratios of income to expenses may be good guidelines for a start; but they are superficial. What do you mean by retirement? What are you saving for? Do your incomes and expenses make your whole life better? One of the reasons I enjoy working for New Road Map Foundation

New Road Map Foundation

New Road Map Foundation

is that they espouse the same tenets described by Vicki Robin and Joe Dominguez in the Nine Step Program and Your Money or Your Life. Personal finance is personal, and therefore is based on personal values; which means everyone’s answer is different.

(This is also what I enjoy about consulting, finding that questions a layer or two lower that resolve more than a simple effect.)

As a society, we carry a lot of stress about money, finance, and economies. Our simple answer is to make more money, cut spending, and grow our economies. Yet, it is difficult if not impossible for everyone to make more money. Cutting spending can save a few pennies and eventually cost thousands. And growing our economy might work if we could also grow the planet, which we can’t (unless we colonize space, but I don’t see that happening fast enough.)

I believe that a lot of the problems we are facing have little to do with the solutions we are applying, as a society and as individuals. Instead of erecting defenses against nature, maybe it makes more sense to relinquish contested territory, or maybe find a new way to build homes for flood plains and coastal areas. Instead of attacking disease, we spend more effort on its opposite which doesn’t even have a name – proease. Are you working towards someone else’s idea of retirement or yours? Are you spending your money and your time the ways you want?

My back is feeling better, now that I’ve been typing this post. It might be that the ibuprofen finally took hold. It might be that sitting for a while is therapeutic, and that I’ll notice pain when I stand up. It might be that expressing myself is relaxing. I suspect it is a combination; a bit of conventional pharmaceuticals, some conventional Asian philosophy, and tapping into the source of my worries, hopes, and my Self.

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Patience Is Precious

Posted on July 2, 2014 by Tom Trimbath

As I type it is about as far from Christmas as you can get in the calendar. The turn around day was last week, June 25th. Since then there have been three pieces of good news that seem like presents that everyone is certain about, but that I can’t open, play with, or use until a parental figure says Go! Until then, I feel like a kid on Christmas Eve who also remembers finding that some presents turned out to be a boxes of socks and handkerchiefs. But not this time. Right? Patience, lad.

Many of you read last week’s good news. The mortgage modificationDSCN5350 looks good. All I had to do was sign the papers, get them notarized, and ship them off. I think that happened, though there was an issue with the envelope. And there was an issue with the formatting of the document. And there was an issue with the signatures. But, that’s all taken care of, I think. Just because I think it is so, and just because people are celebrating it, doesn’t mean that the official word is inevitable. As anyone who works with contracts knows, technicalities can arise. Resolving technicalities within a deadline can cause an inordinate amount of work within anxious hours to simply correct the position of a page break or a comma. I will be relieved when I finally receive an official notice and when I receive the first proper mortgage statement with the envelope with the little plastic window. Until then, I more likely to pop open a beer than a bottle of champagne.

A quieter bit of good news is that I am up to three major clients. Months ago my business had grown to the point that I could pay my bills, as long as I continued to live my comfortable, yet frugal, lifestyle. But most of my income came from two major clients, with the rest being filled in by an ever shifting combination of consultations, speaking engagements, teaching assignments, and book and photo sales. Work seven days a week and make those payments. It creates Full Speed Days, but the trend is in the right direction. Within the last couple of months, another regular client signed up. A third client helps ease the income fluctuations that come from the continual shuffling of my clients who have smaller projects and less certain funding. That sounds like a very nice present wrapped up by a team of clients, yet here I sit waiting for the checks and email payment confirmations that I can then deposit in my business account from which I can pay myself from which I can pay the mortgage, et. al. – and maybe a bit left over for that bottle of champagne I mentioned earlier.

Those who are following MicroVision (MVIS) may have seen the third bit of good news. Microsoft announced a patent that mentioned MicroVision. I was particularly pleased because the patent was for eyewear, which I now think is a better application than projectors in cell phones. Cell phones with projectors may become ubiquitous, and even one successful product can make MicroVision profitable; but the positive breakthrough product will probably be in wearable computers. Offices changed when computers arrived on desktops, then again as laptops replaced desktops, then again as mobile Internet connections unshackled the computer and the user from the office. The home computer went through the same transition, though for different reasons and with more incentive to use tablets. Now, they are all converging until offices look like coffeeshops, and coffeeshops are acting as third places as long as they have web access. PicoProjectors may change all that again, I have a rough time imaging everyone beaming their images onto every surface, but an easy time imaging them watching the web inside their eyewear, privately and clearly. And Microsoft may learn from Google Glass and skip the ick factor of the camera and avant garde design. Great news that they are working together, but that present stays under the tree until they announce a product launch or a revenue deal. MVIS has to hit one of its old delisting hurdles before I can sell enough to safely and effectively sell enough to affect my short term financial hurdles.

Bad news comes fast. Good news arrives slow. That’s why patience is precious. Fast or slow aren’t bad or good; but if bad news moves slow enough we can hope to dodge it, and no matter which pace good news picks the main thing we try to do is position ourselves to meet it.

Right now, my best position is to sit still, work hard, and somehow simultaneously take it easy, relax and enjoy. And hope that Christmas, or at least unwrapping my presents, comes early this year.

Is it too early or too late to mention I have cards for sale?

Is it too early or too late to mention I have cards for sale?

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Semi Annual Exercise Mid 2014

Posted on June 30, 2014 by Tom Trimbath

An encouraging characteristic of good habits, rituals, and regular exercises is that their descriptions and rationales don’t change. Welcome to my semi-annual review of my stocks, and an introduction that hasn’t changed much so copy and paste helps me balance my time.

Introduction
For over a decade I’ve ended every June and December with a simple exercise: in a few sentences, well, maybe a few paragraphs, for every holding my portfolio, explain the company behind the stock, why I have the stock, what I think the company can do, and how I think things are going. It is an exercise inspired by Peter Lynch (author of One Up On Wall Street). If you can’t explain why you’ve got it, maybe you shouldn’t own it. I suspect that is true of any possession. Welcome to my opinions, lightly supported with facts, that explain to me why I own what I own and what I may do differently. I leave you to judge whether you want to do something similar. I also encourage you to follow the links and check my opinions about the various stocks. More minds are more perspectives, and each adds value – especially, if the insights are posted. Diversity is the power behind the discussion boards.

If you want specifics of my strategy and analyses, buy my book! Friends encouraged me to write Dream. Invest. Live.Dream. Invest. Live., which means I’ve probably done more that most to document my investing style. As for the details of the ups and downs of a risky portfolio, well, that’s what this blog has chronicled.

The arcane shorthand of my investing approach is LTBH, PV of FR x %risk, and Buy Small Sell Large. Otherwise known as Long Term Buy and Hold (typically for years), Present Value of Future Revenue Discounted for Risk, and Buy stock in Small companies and Sell them when they are Large. Data from my history is in the book, but we’re all measured by where we are; and, where I am as I type is recovering from a financial upset caused by an unlikely confluence of unfortunate possibilities. One advantage of taking the time to write a book about my strategy is that I’ve analyzed my data and can recognize the probability of recovery – though there are no guarantees.

In short:

  • AMSC is up 20%.
  • GERN is down 18%.
  • GIG is up 30%.
  • MVIS is up 105%.
  • RGSE is up 22%.

So, life should be marvelous. Well, life is worth marveling at, but my portfolio is so damaged from a number of effects that a lot of recovery has to happen before I can call myself retired, again.

Over the last five years (Yes, five years. I told you I Buy and Hold.)

  • AMSC is down from its peak by ~96%
  • GERN is down from its peak by ~66%
  • GIG is down from its peak by ~59% (possibly more because it traded under a different symbol for a while)
  • MVIS is down from its peak by ~95%
  • RGSE is down from its peak by ~36%

(not accounting for dilution)
Ouch. If you haven’t guessed, my style of investing requires high levels of risk tolerance – and they’ve certainly been tested since 2008.

With numbers like that, where’s the cause for optimism? Optimism is within the numbers. One of the tenets of Long Term Buy and Hold is that markets are irrational in the short term but eventually acknowledge logic and reality.

I invest in companies. I just happen to do that through stocks. I invest in companies that I think will help make the world a better place, which frequently means investing in new technologies. All of those companies have been making progress with their current technologies. The companies’ values are increasing, even if that isn’t reflected in the current stock price.

During this market recovery attention has been focused on the mega-cap companies, the Microsofts et al. Quietly, in the background, many small companies are developing the next wave of goods and services that will eventually be properly valued. I don’t think that all of my investments will succeed, but I suspect they won’t all fail.

To generalize:

  • If the companies with products reached a conservative price/sales of 6, their stocks would quadruple and my portfolio would triple.
  • If the stocks recovered enough to return my portfolio to even, my portfolio would quintuple, and my net worth would increase by about three year’s living expenses.
  • Considering that I aim to at least earn about 10% per year, and that most of these stocks have been held for over seven years, then on average, my portfolio would at least double that three year’s living expenses.
  • If MicroVision hits its (only) analyst’s estimate for 2015 revenues and gets a price/sales of 6, I’ll have years of living expenses and a net worth equal to about half my mortgage debt.
  • Based on a simplified estimate of an eventual one billion dollars in sales and a price/sales of 6, the present value of those future revenues exceeds a million dollar portfolio. Account for some risk and there’s still more than enough.
  • Except for RGSE, each of these stocks represent disruptive technologies, and disruptive companies are known for having stocks that languish until the companies succeed at which point the stocks excel. Price/Sales of 6 is small for desirable stocks. Apply a premium and it becomes easier for me to relax and enjoy.

My best return so far is 2,400%. That sounds incredulous, but incredulity is emotion rather than math making judgments. MVIS and GERN have that potential. Oh, and as for RGSE, its competitor trades at a price/sales 30 times higher – and RGSE is my conservative stock.

The reality check, though, is that my portfolio has languished, it is possible for them all to fail, diversification only changes the odds, and that they may recover in ways or with timing that doesn’t benefit me. Buyouts happen. Delays happen. For the last few years the pessimists have been right.

For those that want the details, here are the links to my synopses of each of these stocks. I post my synopses on the public boards so the conversations can take place within community, not just sequestered to my blog. Jump in and join the crowds. There is wisdom there. (There’s also some flaming and a few trolls, but hey, that’s the Internet.)

Investor Village
AMSC
GERN
GIG
MVIS
RGSE

The Motley Fool
AMSC
GERN
MVIS
RGSE
Economy and Markets

Silicon Investor
AMSC
GERN
GIG
MVIS

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7 Demons Of 7 Days – a guest post

Posted on June 29, 2014 by Tom Trimbath

The following is a guest post from an old friend. Alan Beckley and I started Boeing at almost the same time, had almost the same engineering job, both left Boeing early, and have led completely different lives – except that we’ve noticed that we’re both working every day of the week exercising our entrepreneurial skills as much out of choice as necessity. A recent post of mine (Full Speed Days?) inspired a comment from Alan that I encouraged him to expand into a post. Here you go, another perspective on hard work and time demands. (If you want more from Alan, check out his web site where he delves into the life of an inventor and proprietor.) – Tom Trimbath

 

7 “Demons” of 7 Days – by Alan Beckley

To millions of people who are working harder and longer hours than ever before, the jobs expansion or recovery that began in 2009 has seemed a rather cruel joke. Figures from the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) bear out their melancholy. Between 2007 and 2010, the number of new business establishments and the new jobs created by them have plummeted (by 150,000 establishments and nearly 1 million jobs, respectively). These are new lows since 1994 when the data was first tracked. http://www.bls.gov/bdm/entrepreneurship/entrepreneurship.htm

The data suggest that the number of people who now work 7 days per week (not tracked by the government) has likely reached new peaks.

Working 7 days a week is not fun. Those who work 7 days a week do so not because they love their job or business that much, but rather because for one reason or another, they feel that they must.

Below are 7 “demons” of 7 days – the impact – or “collateral damage” – results from the choice or necessity of working 7 days per week:

  • Relationships – very little time available to nurture them
  • Household chores/maintenance – only absolute musts get attended to
  • Errands of daily living – no weekends to run errands any more
  • Down time – important for refreshing and resting
  • Medical appointments – very difficult to schedule
  • Guilt – continual struggle feeling you cannot do everything you should
  • Vacations – no time for such frivolities

Relationships – The Beatles famously asserted “8 days a week is not enough to show I care.” More recently billionaire serial entrepreneur Elon Musk asked his female interviewer, “so how much time does a woman need – 8 hours per week, 10 hours?” Mr. Musk’s query illustrates the sort of tortuous thinking of the 7 days worker.

Household chores – Anything that requires more than 1 hour of attention that can be postponed generally is put off, oftentimes indefinitely. A messy, cluttered chaos of a castle is a common malady of the 7 days worker. See Guilt below.

Errands of daily living – such as oil changes, laundry, and grocery shopping etc. still get accomplished because they must, but they get squeezed into short time spans and spread out over time. This leads to a continual feeling of frustration that any possible “free time” must be filled with errands.

Down time – Everyone needs down time – breaks of a few hours to a few days to relax, refresh and retool. Down time can be a great de-stressor for the uber-busy. For the 7 days worker, down time, gets shoved to a very low priority and is rarely attended to. As a result, the 7 days worker feels continually under stress.

Medical appointments – require blocks of time during the most prime of time for the 7 days worker, business hours on weekdays. As a result, medical appointments are postponed and often not rescheduled – with detrimental effects later.

Guilt is an almost overwhelming emotion for the 7 days worker. He or she soon realizes it is simply impossible to do everything on the list, so continually leaving things unattended to makes them feel guilty. “Success” requires getting more things done, but they cannot do so, ergo they feel they are letting down themselves and others.

Vacations are something that “normal” people enjoy, but 7 days workers are not normal. Vacations are a pipe dream that the 7 days worker hopes to enjoy at some distant time in the future.

 

 

How about you? What’s your story? Care to share it? My voice and Alan’s voice aren’t the only ones that should be heard. Pass yours along and maybe it will be the next guest post.

 

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Replacing Housing Anxiety With Mortgage Relief

Posted on June 25, 2014 by Tom Trimbath

Relief – and it has only just begun. After a series of phone calls and emails I finally received the mortgage modification package that means I get to keep my house, my home. That’s what I hoped was in the FedEx envelope left on my kitchen step today. DSCN5350After a year and a half of struggling to regain financial footing through a process that was un-intuitive, I’d built up so much caution and anxiety that seeing the package was only a slight relief. Finance, emotion, and bureaucracy operate at different speeds. All seem to be aiming towards relief.

For those who are late to the story, a Triple Whammy whacked my sem-retired finances and dropped me into losing almost everything (I even had to sell art! – my own), scrambled to work every Backup Plan, stop making mortgage payments, live on debt while waiting for Backup Plans to produce enough money to pay for the essential bills, then almost all of the bills except housing, then finally begin making trial payments for a possible Mortgage Modification. There you go. Almost two years of financial turmoil, anxiety attacks, with very few days off, condensed to one run-on sentence that most folks will skip or skim rather than read. Such is the case with almost every person’s personal struggle. Few of us take the time to listen to every episode and chapter in another person’s turmoil. I don’t blame anyone. Who has the time? Besides, by definition it is more fun to talk about the celebrations than the sorrows.

We can’t all listen to every detail of everyone’s life. Listening to every detail about one person’s life would take longer than a lifetime. We must edit, but not entirely. Everyone should have a last a few close friends who will at least acknowledge every episode, and listen more when it matters most. Complete understanding is not required. Complete compassion is appreciated, but sainthood is a very tall criterion, so good listening will suffice. Hugs, both for the good news and the bad news, can be worth more than words.

I’m lucky enough to have some dear friends who have answered the call by simply answering the phone. Rather than open the envelope on my own, I called one and asked them to stay on the line as I undid the seal and skimmed the pages. The package looked thinner than expected. Maybe the mortgage company had decided to foreclose and it was just a notice. But, that was my anxiety speaking. The emails and phone calls told my logical brain that it would all be alright. Simply listening as I babbled and pulled out the pages, my friend was treated to a big sigh of relief. The package actually was a mortgage modification. The mortgage modification was for the amount they’d suggested with the trial payments that would be Maybe A Mortgage Modification.

My anxiety remained though because the end of the month was less than a week away. The mortgage company had called me to tell me the new payment amount, that it was due July 1, and that I’d have to return the package by July 13. That meant I had just sent the check earlier in the day for an amount I hoped was the same as was in the package. I was also anxious about filling out the forms. It was supposed to be a 24 page package. A 24 page package could involve days of collecting financial records, and appendices could blossom out into dozens of more pages. Earlier packages had been major time commitments.

Anxiety slowly melted into sighs then grins then smiles. The 24 pages were almost completely legalese with a few lines of details pertinent to my situation and only required my signature in various places, and I shouldn’t even sign them until I was in the presence of a Notary Public. After I dearly thanked my friend I looked over the 24 pages again because something looked peculiar. The situation was even simpler than I thought. Eleven of the pages were duplicated. The already small workload shrunk by about half.

For those in similar situations go back through my posts with the tags of mortgage or foreclosure for the steps I’d taken. For details of the specific implications for me and this mortgage, my original ~6%-ish 30 year mortgage has been replaced with a variable mortgage stretched out over 40 years that starts at 2% and ramps up within seven years to a value that is only 60% of my original payment. They even forbore a few thousand dollars of principal. I get to stay in my house, my home, for less than rent. Whew.8199 Cultus Drive, Clinton WA 98236

The finances have come back into line, with nice upside potential.

The bureaucratic processes aren’t to be trivialized. The package was dated June 13, giving me a month to respond, but it wasn’t actually sent out via FedEx until June 24 at which point it dutifully showed up at my house on June 25. My task of filling out the paperwork correctly is too critical to let go without review, even as simple as it is; and I’ll make sure it has a tracking number when I send it back. The process has been un-intuitive often enough that I make as few assumptions as possible.

The emotional response is undoubtedly the most complex. Even now, hours after opening the package I have yet to let out a whoop or a holler. A series of sighs, a bit of pacing to walk off energy, and a few neck exercises are about all I’ve managed for a celebration  – even with the aid of a relaxing beverage on a gorgeous day. DSCN5352I’ll be more relieved when I’ve received the return receipt from the package return delivery and see the first mortgage statement with the correct amount. It may take weeks or months to not habitually look at my front door looking for a foreclosure notice when I return home from work. It may take weeks or months to not feel my heart race when a car slows down outside or someone walks up to my door. It will take weeks and months to reinvigorate my socializing because I am only able to maintain these finances by working seven days a week. (Hey, I’ve taken 3, maybe 4, days off this year!) It will take months, probably years to catch up on deferred maintenance, Dammed Plans, and delayed dreams; unless my finances dramatically improve, and I have reason for optimism.

Summer has officially begun. My previous season went on for almost three years. I’m glad to see optimism remains, that relief is increasing, and that potentials are arising. I hope that is the case for more than just me.

It looks like a time to enjoy a harvest.

It looks like a time to enjoy a harvest.

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But Not Yet

Posted on June 20, 2014 by Tom Trimbath

As I begin typing, we are less than eight hours away from the Summer Solstice, the beginning of summer (north of the Equator), the farthest the planet gets away from the Sun, and maybe the beginning of much better times. But, now is the eve of the Solstice. For now I can only anticipate the coming shift, enjoy the moment, and wait. DSCN5319

Spend some time with Yes! magazine, or Intelligent Optimist and make a long list of good things coming our way: alternative energies, renewable energies, healthy habits, fun frugality, shifting lifestyles, alternative economies and currencies, and a return to community.

To make my writing job a bit easier I looked forward to a bit of news from any of many personal fronts today. My housing news, a friend’s housing news, stock news, other stock news, client news, other client news, seed money news, or even serendipity news. One bit of news came in, and does qualify as a milestone, but only a milestone the way a marathoner notices the 9 mile mark go by.

Good news. I received an email about a recent phone call about a package that was alluded to in a phone call in May that sounds very reassuring that I’ll be able to eventually apply for the opportunity to get a modified mortgage that should be similar to the trial payments I’ve been making for the last three months. And people wonder why I hesitate to actually tell them what’s going on with my house. DSCN5128Repeating that sentence takes a lot of breath, and explaining. Of course, most people who are aware of the situation assume that everything is resolved by now. Nope. About a year of meetings and mediation have gotten to the point that I’ve been told the package is on its way – and has been for a week. The sooner I get it the better, especially if it has to be completed, mailed back, evaluated, approved (hopefully), and then announced in time for me to make a payment before the end of the month – which is only ten days away. Not yet, but soon, please.

A good friend also has housing news that could mean an easing of their anxiety and an impetus to a shared project. But, not yet.

MVIS, the story stock of MicroVision that I write and talk about a lot, languishes while the shareholders who attended the annual meeting anticipate impressive appreciation. Of course, we’ve always done that; but this time, really, really. There is always a lot of debate about what’s about to happen, and all optimisms have been deflated every time over the last couple of decades; but there is good reason to believe they’ll turn profitable within the next year, and there is good reason to expect announcements that will “impress” us. Within an investing year there are about 240 trading days. Every trading day is an opportunity for the stock to begin dramatic moves, and every day so far has proved to be an eve at best.

Meanwhile, just as I am getting ready to produce my semi-annual portfolio review, three of my investments have been involved in mergers and acquisitions which means I have some research, spreadsheet manipulations, and extra writing to do. If these are wise enough moves, then the stocks should move too; but, not yet.

Easily half of my clients are on the eve of auspicious shifts as they await funding, collaborations, decisions, and a bit of extra motivations. As they wait, I wait; and know that we may get very busy in very good ways very soon. But not yet.

My BitCoin wallet sits ready, but quiet. My consulting business takes Bitcoin, but not yet because no one has offered to pay that way – yet.

The prompting, dare, and challenge of a friend inspired me to apply for seed capital for a small community-based non-profit venture. He found the form. Pointed out the deadline that was less than a day away. And found just the right words to convince me to act – and now to wait to hear if a sincere yet rushed proposal will be accepted and funded. If so, I’ll be very busy. Which I already am, so I’ll have to manage that somehow; but, not yet.

And, any moment, unexpectedly good things can happen. Maybe they have, and I just haven’t noticed, yet.

As each of these anticipations come to fruition, I’ll have at least a post to write and for you to read.

I’m busy. The world is busy. Americans are busier than anyone else. Issues, solutions, and initiatives are swirling seemingly unsettled. Maybe that is just a season we’ve been going through and we’ll finally be pointed in the right direction. Maybe this is just the eve of a season of ease after months or years of effort and waiting. We’ll know soon. But not yet.

The sun is setting about as far north as it will before switching with the seasons. I’m waiting to post until the colors are right for the closing photo. They’re almost there, but not yet.

Oh wait. There they are. I just had to wait.

DSCN5340

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Social Media Really

Posted on June 18, 2014 by Tom Trimbath

social media graphic

Why? Why Like, Follow, Plus, Connect, or Subscribe to someone? Why not? It’s free, isn’t it? It’s worthless, isn’t it? Skip the pleas from Facebook, Pinterest, Twitter, Google+, LinkedIn, and WordPress and Blogger. They aren’t free, really. They aren’t worthless, really. Concentrate on the first word, social. That’s as free and as worthless as it ever was or wasn’t. If can find a reason to be social, you’ve got a reason to use social media, probably.

Social media has become such a part of most people’s lives that it has fallen into the category of “things we can all complain about everyday”. There are enough topics to avoid in polite conversation, but letting loose about what’s wrong with Facebook is fashionable; and no one comments on the paradox of then passing along a bit of news from your network of friends. We are social creatures and this is just another way we’ve invented to connect with each other.

The difference with each of these inventions is that someone, some corporation, owns it. We’ve probably been social since before we invented language, but the majority of those social interactions were free, or only cost the price of shared meal.

Shared meals, parties, festivals, and rituals were all things that brought us together. They also became opportunities to do more than share stories. People bartered, collaborated, debated and tried to extend their group of friends. Within the last few centuries that spawned country clubs, secret societies, even chambers of commerce – places where people gathered to indirectly encourage each other’s business. There was a lot more going on, but a lot of socializing was driven by the need to make a living.

Just like socializing, social media isn’t limited to business and money. Every topic is available. I imagine that there are even online discussions about how there shouldn’t be online discussions. Social media on the Internet is amazingly empowering because any topic can be raised, if the right venue is found, and the audience isn’t limited to only those people within walking distance of the pub. The advantage for entrepreneurs and advocates is that audiences and markets can be built by pulling together even small percentages of what has become a very large population.

Social media is, however, very different from socializing. This invention called social media is a tool owned and operated by corporations that want to make billions of dollars. Their paradox is that they can’t make any money unless we use their sites, post bits from our lives, and interact with what other people post. They’re driven to a business model based on offering free services, because otherwise a competitor could underprice them, while then trying to find some way to make money by selling information about our habits, or from businesses that want to advertise more cheaply and more directly than any other venue.

There’s enough reason for distrust that the offer of “Free” usually raises doubts and questions. We know we’re paying for it somehow. Each of these sites asks us to post private information, and then asks us to trust them as they sell that information to others for whom we have even less basis of trust. As if that wasn’t unsettling enough, many of the sites are now encouraging us to pay for premium services, or pay for apps like games or archives.

So why use social media?

The biggest reason I use social media is social. People, communities, and discussions are worth what any conversation can be worth. Finding a good deal, maybe a free exchange, may save a few dollars, maybe a few hundred. Businesses and non-profits know that to reach customers and funders means reaching as many as possible because success rates are small. Multiply a small chance by a big enough set of chances and chances are something good can happen. Investors gather to compare notes, analyses, and sometimes to commiserate; and those conversations can be worth – well – millions, honestly. (Check out my semi-annual portfolio review of a list of links to forums.)

I use social media to keep track of my friends and let them keep track of me at their convenience. Within my neighborhood we’ve used it to track construction progressDSCN4972, map power outages, rally support for someone in sudden need, organize parties, and sometimes just to check how long the ferry line is today. For my clients I use social media to get their message to their advocates, and beyond, establish collaborations, and find new sources of funding. For my business I use it like any other business, to announce my goods and services to as broad an audience as possible, while also making deeper connections with those that like what I do.

I don’t have accounts on everything. That’s an inefficient use of time. Social media is maturing, so some sites get abandoned while others get added, tentatively. I also don’t say the exact same thing on every site. Never changing your tone or talk is boring in any social scene. Within the last week I shared the fact that a photo had gained prominence as the new “most viewed” photo on one of my galleries.DSC_4293 On my business’ Facebook page the announcement was more open and casual. On LinkedIn my target audience were the people who buy art for decorating businesses. On Google+ I knew I was targeting Google’s search engine, rather than any individuals, so that post had more tags. On Twitter the photo would take up some of the 140 character count, so I kept the rest very short. I’ll do something similar with this post. I also like that sites like Klout let me see where my messages reach, and suggest ways to make them reach further.

And there are cautions. Social media is so changeable that I don’t rely on any one site, only post what I’m willing to show the world, only post lower-resolution images or watermark the higher quality versions, use lots of pronouns instead of individuals’ names unless they are actively interested in getting their name spread wide, and step away from the glorious time sinks of viral videos, games, and quizzes – except when I need a break.

Of course, we are all individuals. I like that about us. I especially like those of us who make up our own minds, use tools as appropriate to benefit ourselves and each other, and who know that – just like in socializing, a bit of maturity is very welcome even in places as immature as social media.

PS Want to hear more? Thursday night at the old Bayview School on Whidbey, I’ll be part of a duo (Dan Pedersen is the other half) talking about Social Media, particularly for writers. $5 if you’re not a member.

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Full Speed Days

Posted on June 15, 2014 by Tom Trimbath

Ironies abound. Here I am, blogging about balancing life and money, wrote a book about it Dream. Invest. Live.(Dream. Invest. Live.), am a case study in another one (Your Money or Your Life), and I’m launching into the last task of the day at 9pm on a Sunday. And yet, as unbalanced as it seems, I suspect that there is and will be a balance precisely because I am working at full speed these days. Sometimes the best way to appreciate a rule is to break it – without doing anything illegal, of course.

Ah, if only I could find the reference; but I’m working at such a pace with so little free time that I’ll have to skip it. But. Evidently, aboriginal cultures typically only require a three hour work day. They’re busy the rest of the day too, but it is socializing and family activities. In medieval times, workers worked from sunrise to sunset; except for holidays, of which there were more than a hundred, and which also meant effectively long vacations during the winter when the nights were long and the candles were precious. Sometime along the line there must have been a peak in the working hours because in the late 1700’s workers were happy to get their workweek cut back to only six days a week and their workdays cut back to ten hours a day. Now, we take the 40 hour work week as a standard even while it is being nudged to 36 hours by people like the French.

“Time is money.” “Time ain’t money when you have nothing but time.” “Money can’t buy you time.” All great sayings, each of which can play off the others; all of which are moot for many. More than 25,000,000 American families live paycheck to paycheck. If they have free time and can make more money, they probably would. If they had extra money, well, they wouldn’t be living paycheck to paycheck.

I’m currently living that knife edge, making just enough to pay all of my bills, eventually, I think. My optimism builds from the fact that last year was on the bad side of that balance; so maybe next year will be on the other side. I still don’t know because I haven’t heard from my mortgage servicer about whether they are going to offer me a mortgage modification despite having made all of the required trial payments. Put together my three biggest clients and I should be fine; but doubt remains and spare time is spent trying to make spare money – which leads me to writing this post late on a Sunday rather than early on a Saturday.

I am not alone. It is a refrain, so maybe I shouldn’t pass it along, except that many of my less public friends share the feeling and thank me for expressing it. Two, three, even six jobs are stitched together to pay the bills – while hoping nothing big breaks. There is a sub-culture of a quiet community that foregoes parties, potlucks, and plays because it’s too hard to go dancing after standing at a job for eight hours, or there’s not enough time or money to make something for a potluck, or a play is too expensive in money plus time. Take the ticket cost divided by the time spent at a play and compare it to your wages. It’s possible that the time and money must be earned back at a wage that’s lower than the cost for every hour in attendance.

My irony is that my balancing apparently happens over years. Instead of eight hours labor, eight hours recreation, eight hours rest my life seems to be more like work for years at full speed, retire early for several years, work for years at full speed, retire again (I hope). It is not ideal, but having several years or decades off is appealing and may be worth this effort. But, as I say, my balance is moot. Right now, I have to work as much as possible to recover from my financial upset.

I wonder if the ideal we hold for society is also in need of a similar adjustment. We’re in a period of heightened consumption, change, and societal evolution. Everything seems to be in flux, and vast populations are amazingly busy working to resolve innumerable global crises. These last few decades are the first time humanity has been aware of the state of the rest of humanity, and the condition of the rest of the globe. The responsible people are responding, frequently working to resolve issues that seem poised on a knife edge between collapse and resolution. Philanthropists who would’ve focused on the community within a day’s horse ride now can tackle any issue anywhere because everywhere is a plane ride away, or even closer by phone.

This blog is about balancing money and life, investing for dreams that can actually be lived. When in the midst of such determined effort, any reduction in effort can feel like a wasteful indulgence. In some cases that’s right. We are lousy at predicting the future, and that includes being lousy at predicting the tendencies around knife edges. I offer this encouragement that I offer to myself every day. It may be a personal cliche, but my first book’s title is Just Keep PedalingJust Keep Pedaling. If you haven’t reached your goal, but your efforts are pointed in the right direction, trust yourself and keep making progress however you can. Just keep your goal in sight. Keeping your head down and pedaling right by your goal makes for such an embarrassing video.

With that in mind I am going to lift my head, refill my glass of wine, and find a bit of balance in what remains of the day. I hope you, and we can eventually all do the same, and for a lot longer than a day.

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