Balancing Porsches Kias And Philanthropy

dsc_7168Vroom! Roar! That’s not the sound of my truck. That’s the sound of the Porsche 911 that leapt up the highway as I took the right turn into the office parking lot. My guess is that the driver of the probably $150,000 car was frustrated for miles, stuck behind my lumbering pickup. Ah, the glory and curse of the island’s two-lane roads. That sports car’s throaty roar made me wonder about the driver and what they really wanted. I realized, they probably didn’t know, either.

Within seconds, the 911 could be hitting 60 mph from a stop. From their headstart behind the truck, they could’ve broken the speed limit in under a second. Ten seconds later, they must have eased the acceleration because there were other cars on the road. Even a car doing 10 mph over the limit would act like a road block to a car with a top speed of almost 200 mph.  Over $150,000 for a few seconds of thrills and a quick imposition of normalcy. That’s expensive entertainment.

Just at random, let’s look at a Kia Rio, a car I’d never heard of until I did the search while typing. Cost, ~ $15,000. Top speed ~ 120 mph. Time to 60 mph, ~ 8.5 seconds. So slow compared to the Porsche. At least on the island it can only break the speed limit (55 mph) by more than 100%, takes a few more seconds to do so, (less time than it takes to type this sentence, especially with a few backspaces included), and is probably much better at hauling groceries, finding parking, getting past speed bumps, and oh yeah, not putting the driver into debt if a fender gets bent.

And, the Kia Rio can feel equally frustrated following my truck that has a tough time getting up to the speed limit. More than two tons of truck powered by the smallest V-8 available and aged for 18 years makes a great speed limiting device on the island’s roads. And it isn’t the only one. As someone’s bumper sticker proclaims, “This ain’t the mainland. Relax. Slow down.” Relax and slow down may feel like an affront to people who feel the need for speed, but other people will pay thousands of dollars to attend a resort that lets them do that. The island also sees people who spend hundreds of thousands of dollars buying houses so they can relax, slow down, and enjoy the quiet.

The basic outline of those paragraphs flashed through my head in the minute or so after I got out of the truck. There’s no blame against the driver. Their choice, however, made me realize how powerful advertising is.

The driver was sold on the image and performance of a vehicle that is designed to break the law, and delivered with reminders not to break the law. They spent extra for that. They didn’t just spend a little bit extra. They spent enough extra to cover some family’s living expenses for three years. The driver was sold a luxurious dream many are proud of being part of. 

Even if the driver got to enjoy a few seconds of thrills every day, and didn’t get caught enjoying the thrills too much, I find it fascinating in a Spock sort of way that they don’t balance that against helping others for years. Seconds of forbidden luxury versus years of selflessly benefiting an entire family. Entire industries rely on never making those comparisons.

The opposite probably goes too far, too. Everyone having exactly the same things may turn life dull and static. With no social mobility there may be too few incentives for too many. I suspect the answer is between the two, and that our immature society has yet to find the right balance between stability and control (an inside joke and insight for my aerospace friends.) Mountains have great stability, but they don’t do much, and when they do move it’s bad. Great control is marvelous, but always having to be in control is tiring, and a moment’s distraction can mean disaster.

Finding that balance is something frugal folk endeavour to do frequently. Tiny houses, but with great details. Home gardens, filled with heirloom varieties. Working just enough to play a lot. Those are balancing acts I continue to strive towards in many ways. Working towards balance in life is probably my busiest hobby. There isn’t a store for that. There aren’t ads for that. Yet, entire philosophies have the same goal.

A friend continues to ask me a question I frequently ask myself; “What would be different if I had a million dollars?” (He ups it to $5M, but I don’t need to go there.) I won’t bore you with the long list. Top would be getting healthier in a variety of ways (medical, physical, mental, spiritual, etc.) As for a house, it is refreshing that after almost a year as a broker I have yet to find a nicer house than my simple 868 square foot beach-less beach cottage, that’s actually bigger than I need; though a larger yard would be nice. Being re-retired is high up there, and I have a long way to go.

With a million, I’d basically be there and could return to my personal version of philanthropy; something that I discussed with representatives of the Ford and Rockfeller Foundations. They envied the power of a person who will help others without worrying about tax consequences. Other friends proved to me the value and joy in quietly helping someone. No publicity. No strings attached. See a need. Provide the resources. Trust them to know how best to use it. Know it will go wrong occasionally; but it’s more likely to go right and go right in powerful ways. That’s a joy.

As for having a million and having a truck, well, I think someone else could use the truck better. Personally, I think I’d need and enjoy an all-electric Jeep Wrangler. There are mountains to climb, nature to enjoy, and peaceful places to visit. The irony is that it would probably also kick butt on and off the road. Balance, balance. Got to have some fun, eh?

 

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Sleeping In

Scandalous. Which, by my typing it makes you realize it probably wasn’t that bad. Scandals are so common that even federal offenses don’t stand out. My scandal was internal. I slept in, almost until 8AM. Life in the Gig Economy kicked in with a quick assessment of what I might have missed. The good news was, nothing. The other good news was because of two or three or a few simple things that could finally line up to put nine hours between when I fell into bed and when I finally dove into the day.

Wake up and check in with everyone’s constant companion, the internet. It is too common now that people, like me, check their computer, tablet, or smartphone before their feet hit the floor. Our computers have trained us well.
Hey, email; anything important that’s about to reschedule the day, and maybe start it off with a panic? No? Whew.
Hey, stocks; anything in the portfolio actually moving the way I want it to? No. Rats.
Hey, social media; any notifications that are things I want to get notified about? Yeah, somewhat, kinda, but nothing urgent. Just stuff that I like to see: friends enjoying life, stuff like that.
At least for a short while, I’m one of the lucky ones that doesn’t have to check texts. I still use a flip phone. Most of my friends and associates know that email or – gasp – a real phone call is a better way to get in touch with me.
So much for lounging in bed. It’s become a crowded place, virtually.

That’s the norm, now. Work drives life. Wake up, get to it, and don’t stop until you have to because fewer get to stop when they want to. Hence, my trip to one of my friends who does excellent massages. (referrals available upon request)

She’s back in town after a departure that doesn’t need to be explained here. Hours of staring at the computer and clicking the mouse is an improvement over this time last year when I was doing all of that plus writing for several outlets. Carpal tunnel, sore neck and shoulders, tight forehead, and even a tight chest meant a simple head and neck massage meant following the strain all the way down to my lower back. I was so tight that, after a session or two my eyesight improved. My muscles were so contracted that the blood vessels were constricted. Relax. Relax. It had been about a year since my last massage. Go ahead work it all out, head to toe.

That probably helped me sleep better. Simple things like being able to bend down to pick something off the floor was suddenly easier. Gotta get back to karate, exercise, meditation, and stretching. Ah, but work.

Walk into a coffeeshop or an office and notice people bowing to their computers. Face tilted forward and down. Brow wrinkled. Eyes concentrating. Hands poised over the keyboard as if in prayer. Maybe even some arcane mumbling going on. Faces glowing in the soft light. Who’s in charge? Ergonomics experts must be in great demand, or are in anguish over watching what we do. Throw in the evidence that light from screens is training us to stay up late, and don’t be surprised if getting to sleep is difficult.

Fortunately, I live in a state with legal recreational marijuana. Ironically, I waited until the recreational use was legal, but I use it medicinally. Rather than light a pipe when I get home, I continue to pour a glass of wine or maybe just water. When it’s time for bed, though, here comes the pipe, or the homemade marijuana-infused rum, or good brownies, or some combination depending on the day. Maybe even some CBD oil. And CBD seems to be the key. Since marijuana legalization I’ve used marijuana to quiet my nerves, literally. Get the dosage right and my muscles spasms fade. Make the dose too small, and bump it a notch with a puff on the pipe. Make the dose too big, and get so fascinated by the world that I stay awake wondering at it. Now, however, I’ve switched from high THC (which produces a high) to high CBD (which just seems to be very mellow.) Last night was a good batch of brownies, and I basically slept through the night – slept through as well as any 60-ish male can who has to get up a few times to get rid of water.

Sleeping in may seem like a simple thing to many people. I know too many who wake up worried. Even without a computer they’re justifiably worried about the money coming in versus the money going out, whether they’ll have a home, or food, or health. Their worries aren’t abstract futures. They’re worries are about the next hour or two. Too many feel best hiding under the covers, not in a playful way, not in a luxurious way, but in a way of retreating from the world. I’ve been there. Now, I can make fun of myself for waking up with an iPad with a different set of worries. Silly me. As if there was a plan and any of us are in control – and yet, those who don’t have enough to pay their bills must try.

While I quickly made a smaller breakfast, I asked myself how I managed to sleep in. Guilt gets delivered naturally, thanks to my childhood training. Enjoying the moment kicked in that scandalous moment. What did I miss? What should I have done? Who will be upset? By the time I realized that nobody cared the opportunity to relax was gone.

A friend frequently asks me a question I even more frequently ask myself; “What would you do if you didn’t have to worry about money?” Lots of introspection suggests that, If I won millions through the lottery, my greatest luxuries would start with relaxing, helping others relax, and enjoying life. I probably would’t even sleep in much. The world is a fascinating place and there’s so much to do and so much that needs to be done. Decades of stress probably would lead to years of massages, trips, undoubtedly dancing, and a lot of time in nature. And, if I did sleep in, I might just roll over – at least for a while. As for the computer, well, it would sleep in, too.

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Misunderstanding Is Normal

“Why would they do such a thing?”, one of the most common questions in human existence since the invention of language besides “What’s for dinner?” “Why would you do such a thing?” That’s asked a lot less because it is too confrontational, and rarely is asked in a way that encourages a response. “Why did I do such a thing?” Ask that and invite yourself to understanding yourself and the rest, whether that’s political, compassionate, personal – and yes, even financial.

 

Why did I do such a thing?

That may be the best question to inspire a frugal lifestyle. Frugality can mean appreciating the value of your resources; not just money, but time, community, and nature. Frugal folks are less likely to spend freely, unless they’ve already thought through where they can and can’t do that.

Someone who can’t pay all of their bills doesn’t get to spend freely. Everything that asks for money is valuable and must be addressed. Prioritization of necessities becomes a necessity. I’ve recently been through that and can see it from here. Buying a box of paperclips or a new computer mouse can seem like a splurge and a luxury.

Someone who can pay their bills and not much else has some free cash, but it must be spent smartly or else it is too easy to fall back into not being able to pay those bills. A regular opportunity to buy small things or save up for something big eases anxieties like a bit of butter keeps the food from sticking.

There’s some sweet spot where there’s enough to spend freely without thinking, but not to excess. That spot is different for everyone, and it moves as circumstances change.

I feel sorry for people who indulge in excess. They can easily lose connection to personal values, true costs, and an understanding of folks who are at least partially frugal either by choice or necessity. Sadly, too many of them lose track of social values, too.

Congratulations to those who, regardless of income and wealth understand that values are real even though money is artificial. Even for them, values are personal and hence personal finance remains personal.

 

Why would you do such a thing?

That’s the question that creates debates, arguments, and rifts.

Ask it sincerely and gain insights that can explain why someone does something unexpected. It probably wasn’t unexpected to them. Ask it to learn without expecting to teach and the other person may appreciate the value of someone who cares enough to listen without imposing their values. Ask it without an agenda and find that you probably shocked them because it is so rare.

Some sociologist could comment on the history of such questions, but it seems that we are all so divided and opinionated that asking personal questions can feel like an offense or a reason to deploy defenses. Ask it and watch or hear responses like “What’s it to you?” “Why? What are you getting at?” It isn’t easy to ask it without at least some layer of implicit or explicit judgment. “Why’d you buy that?” “Why’d you buy that?” “Why’d you buy that?” “Why’d you buy that?”

No wonder it isn’t easy to get to understand each other. Imagine how valuable it is to master that skill. I’m still working on it.

It is also why sharing personal finance insights is so difficult. It takes time and trust to gain the understanding of the other person’s perspective before any additional value can be shared. Decades of experiences and situations are how each of us get to where we are. Someone who gives advice after only hearing five sentences about something complex is relying on luck, arrogance, or a lack of caring. No wonder listening is valued so highly.

 

Why would they do such a thing?

Welcome to divisive cultures and politics. If there’s a they, there’s an us. They are probably doing something they think is right, just like everyone.

As I type, I take quick breaks to search for the source of a quote that I’ll have to paraphrase. “Everyone does what they think is right, even if they don’t like it.” There’s always a justification or rationalization, though sometimes it takes years of counseling to uncover it. Ideologies make things sound simple. Realities are more abstract. People aren’t spending money the way you think they should? There’s probably a variety of reasons for that. Some will be practical, some ideological, some spiritual, some – well – accidents and randomness happen.

Few people intend to spend their way into poverty; though there are those who are trying to time their time and their money to run out at the same time.

Saul Bloom: You’re all aces in my book, but I want the last check I write to bounce.Oceans 12 on IMDB

Few people intend to lose touch with their real values; but along the way they were encouraged somehow to at least temporarily pursue other goals. Advertisers rely on this. Do you value early retirement or a fancier car? The car ads usually get bigger budgets.

 

As with most of my posts, I write this because I’ve witnessed it. I’ve received a surplus of advice from people who only know a snippet of an episode in my life. I’ve listened to friends criticizing friends who’ve made choices they don’t agree with, without trying to understand why. I’ve watched political debates that rely on prejudice and generalizations instead of recognizing that no one is average, no one is a stereotype, and that everyone can change.

Writing is an interesting exercise. Writing is an opportunity to collect ideas, organize them, and present them without being interrupted. That does not, however, remove the possibility of misunderstanding. If it was possible to write perfectly, then there’d be no debate over holy books. Expect less then from any form of communication, even ones are broad and personal as sitting with someone, listening to their story, maybe asking “Why would you do such a thing?” And then remember to ask it of yourself.

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Tired With MVIS

You’re probably tired of reading about it, too. For years I’ve been writing about the mighty little company that could, that possibly still can. MicroVision is a story stock that has been less like the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow and more like the boy that cried wolf. Though in the case of MVIS it is more like repeated cries that someone’s spotted the pot of gold, only to find it as ephemeral as the rainbow. Yesterday they released quarterly earnings in a quarter that had the promise of a new CEO, a new strategy, and approaching profitability. At the end of today, the stock was trading at less than a dollar. Like I said, tiring.

Investing is easy if you have good luck. Investing is easy to give up if you have bad luck. Regardless of luck, investing remains one of the paths in the US to a more comfortable lifestyle. If your money can make money while you’re making money, that’s a powerful ally. That’s why, despite my Triple Whammy (unhappy seventh anniversary), I continue to invest in the stock market – and lottery tickets.

Investing is eased if management is transparent and communicative. The more an investor knows, the more likely the committed assets are an investment rather than a speculation. Unfortunately, MicroVision is known for a culture of opaque communications, obfuscation, and generally frustrated shareholders. The new CEO and the new report don’t seem to have changed that. As one respected redditor commented;

It’s “hide the pea” crap like this which causes some people to think they’re purposefully trying to look as bad as they can.” – geo_rule on reddit

In general, deciphering arcane corporate communiques can be difficult. That difficulty is eased with clear financial statements and obvious earnings. The better things are, the more reason to make that clear. Conversely, when things aren’t clear, people suspect things aren’t going well.

I’m tired of trying to understand MicroVision’s communications. I wonder how many hours I’ve spent doing my due diligence while possibly being undermined by obfuscation. I’ve been trying to see where the rainbow is headed while someone’s been either burying the gold or putting on a light show.

The effort has seemed worth it because I’m convinced of the technology’s potential, the possible market size, and the large niches available to the various competitors. There’s more than enough for everyone. The effort has seemed less worth it as dilution and a reverse split devalued my fractional ownership and number of shares. The effort has also seemed worth it because my interpretation of management has frequently been that the pot of gold, or at least commercial viability, is only a few months or a year or two away. That remains the case.

Of course, it is impossible to reach the end of the rainbow unless it is in a bubble that fits on your hand.

Management has convinced me that profitability is possible in 2019, that several customers are committed to the company’s technology and products, and that the risk of failure is dramatically reduced. Good. I’m also convinced that a buyout is more likely. The rhetoric seems to have shifted from “sticking with it to the end” to “turning down offers because they weren’t attractive enough.” Attractive enough for 51% is probably not attractive enough for me.

The company did well this last quarter, I think. It’s hard to tell. The company’s potential remains strong, but I can’t tell if the details of their strategy have significantly changed or if it was only the rhetoric.

I write this, not to vent (well, a little). Okay, a lot. This blog is about personal finance. Personal finance is personal which is why it can inspire emotions. Those emotions are something to be aware of. Too many people avoid thinking about their finances because they fear math, or think it is too complicated. Investing can be made simple in various ways. My way isn’t an example for everyone because I don’t mind some complexity. Supply and demand. If investors avoid complicated stocks, there’s less demand for them, which suggests I can buy value for a discount. If the companies succeed, people find reasons to learn more, or simply buy more. When that demand arrives, I have a supply to sell. It worked for years and decades – until that dreaded Triple Whammy mentioned above.

I’ll continue to hold MVIS shares because, as I wrote above, the potential is attractive. The company’s success has more to do with smart customers and less to do with whether I understand MicroVision’s management. I might even buy more, and may even buy a smartphone with one of their projectors embedded in it. (MoviPhone) Screen shot 2018-01-06 at 7.20.35 PMBut, I do so with less certainty. I will also spend less time tracking the stock and the fascinating yet somewhat moot discussions.

This blog is based on my book, Dream. Invest. Live. Dream Invest Live coverThat last word is important. Live. I wonder how much living I gave up trying to understand a company that doesn’t want to be understood. I’ll wonder a bit less, hopefully live a bit more, and hope (not an investment strategy) that the company and the stock succeed sufficiently to help me live my dreams.

There may not be any rainbows but the Sun is shining (as it has for billions of years). I have some errands and chores. I think I’ll put stocks aside, get out my bicycle, go for a ride, and have fun getting something done.

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Playing With A Wish List

Prepare to apply mental lubricant. Sometimes that’s what it takes to break free of mental ruts. (Tonight’s involves gin.) Part of changing perspectives is recognizing things that have been purposely neglected and suppressed. Occasionally, especially when circumstances change, it makes sense to consider changing priorities, spending habits, and accidentally ingrained habits. Several years ago I had switched from frugal by choice to frugal by necessity. I’m still frugal, but finances and possibilities have improved to where I can consider fixing or replacing things I’ve actively ignored. For decades, regardless of income or assets, I’ve played with another financial exercise. What do I want to buy, next?

When the answer to “What do I want to buy, next?” is commandeered by the basics for life: food, shelter, healthcare, etc. the list isn’t as entertaining. I continue to consider driving to the north of the island a luxury because I’m very aware of the cost of gas and my truck’s fuel efficiency. At times like that, a wish list includes having enough to eat, a place to sleep, reasonable health, and a way to get around. I know my perspective is changing because I’m thinking about things that are very useful, but not essential. Luxuries? Well, that’s a point of perspective, too. I bought a pack of new tee shirts a week or so ago and that feels luxurious. No more than the required number of holes. No frayed sleeves or collars. Soft, as if none of the fibers have been washed away.

This financial exercise started decades ago when I was in a tent waiting for a storm to pass. I’d read all of the books I’d packed. (Read any of my Twelve Month series books in the Cascade Mountains and notice that, when I run out of books, I pack up and head home.) Paper, pencil, and not enough light to read what I was writing were good conditions for something like a list. This was back when discretionary income exceeded almost all of my playful expenses. It was a nice place to be. And yet, even then, there were things I just hadn’t gotten around to buying. Some were simple curiosities, like a nicer set of pocket carabiners for a new key chain. Others were grandiose, like major voyages or home projects. There was, however, a long list of things to buy. After I thought I’d run out of ideas, I went back through the list and guessed at prices for each. So, I listed them all, just to see what the total would be. At least it would put lottery jackpots in perspective.

The list was easy to make, got very long, totaled to more than a minimum lottery jackpot, and woke me up in unexpected ways. Life was already good – and there was always something more to buy, use, or have. Then I saw something about how many things cost very little and were associated with little, daily annoyances: a broken watch band, a squirrelly computer mouse, sunglasses that weren’t quite right. Folks familiar with Pareto charts can appreciate what I did mentally and on paper. I marked off all of the items under some price point, looked at the total, and wondered what would be better: buying all of those potentially dozens of items or picking one item for the same total price that was much higher up the list. Sometimes, it was the one thing. Usually, it is the long list.

Adventurous but cautious, a chicken adventurer I am; which is why I took that list and didn’t buy those dozens of things. I’d buy one thing at a time, unless shipping costs suggested buying a few more things. I’d buy them, get them home, and use or properly store each one before I bought anything else. (Skis on sale in summer, and while I could hike onto a glacier to try them out, that would be a silly stunt.) Buying one thing at a time slows down the process, but actually using what I bought slowed things down enough that weeks or months might go by before I bought the next thing. By then, my priorities may have changed and something I thought was a need may have dropped right past want and down to inconsequential. I saved a lot of money by never getting around to buying some stuff.

Some point out that instead of ordering the list by price, list it by desire. That works too, but I found that two things I highly desired became roadblocks: early retirement, and significant philanthropy. That’s one way to reach those goals, by denying every other expense; but I’m not a fan of extremes. My wish list with prices lubricated many of those rough spots in my life. Besides, the exercise is voluntary, so I can step outside it and buy something pricey if I want to. Personal finance is personal, not just financial.

It has been several years since I’ve done the exercise. Now, spreadsheets make the sorting much easier. If I want to get quantitative about it, I can also use some of the analyses I’ve learned in various business management courses. The tools are there, but the mindset has shifted. That’s why a little mental lubrication is helpful. I need to break free of the habit of denial – without losing track of financial realities. My little seems like a lot, but it probably want make it far up the list. That would take a lot more.

Here are today’s results.

Oops. I did it again.
Before I even finished the list I took a walk, decided to run some errands, and bought three things that were refreshing cheap – especially because I started thinking about them. For less than $10 I bought an eraser, some post-it notes, and a box of envelopes. Seem trivial? Welcome to the world of people who don’t have enough to pay their bills. (ALAYCPYB)

Oh. Those things again.
Sure enough; every time I do this exercise some of the same things come up that can’t be bought: health, happiness, friends, freedom from fear, freedom from want, freedom of expression (which I think covers freedom of religion and freedom of speech), etc. Every time, I also leave them on the list. If I try to keep from letting them in, I find myself rebelling against my higher values.

Okay, some real results.
I could knock off 14 items for a total of under $1,000. My comfort number is less than that, but those 14 items include things that are good for business (shirts without holes in them, printer ink), emergency preparedness (a camping tent, solar shower), and simple things like a lens cap for my SLR. I can buy all of those things for less than one mortgage payment.

The biggies, again.
Like paying for retirement, there are several things on the list that aren’t easily waved away for the price of one month’s mortgage: new roof, new windows, new kitchen, new driveway, new vehicle, etc. Do you see the trend? Houses are expensive, even small ones like mine. They’re also a valuable asset, so some of those expenses are also investments, but that’s true for other things on the list like classes, tune-ups, doctor visits, etc.

Today’s reality.
I’ve already bought a few items, and will buy others. For now, I’m slowing down the process with another requirement. I’ll work through the list, one or a few items at a time, but only after I get paid, which is basically twice a month. As I said above, however, personal finance is personal, so I might just buy that backyard tent I’ve been thinking about. Backpacking tents are great, but they sacrifice a lot for the sake of weight and pack size. Backyard and camping tents can even let me stand up, in some. A nice alternative on hot summer nights, good emergency shelter (as long as I store it outside where I can get to it), and maybe a spare room for when guests arrive (and I can sleep outside in luxury.)

The mental lubrication helps, but it can also hurt. Be careful out there, and don’t buy anything until later. As silly as it sounds, shifting perspectives, even when it is for good reasons, sometimes needs a bit of assistance. Habits, especially survival habits, can be hard to break or set aside when they are no longer needed. Keep them in mind if the need or want arises, but also keep in mind that sometimes it pays to play with a new wish list for a new lifestyle.

PS Oh yeah, and I want hurricane matches, and a massage, and maybe a saner world where facts and logic rule. Ah, to dream of such luxuries.

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IRA And 59 And A Half

I should’ve listened to my intuition, even back then. When I retired early at 38, I hesitated to roll my 401K into an IRA because I suspected the tax benefits might not materialize. I was right. As a few financial professionals have put it, I had a perfect storm of bad luck. The penalties and lost opportunities cost me tens of thousands of dollars at the very time when I needed every dollar. Now that I’m over 59.5 years old, I can withdraw from my IRA without penalty, but there’s too little remaining to make any action worthwhile – unless another storm of bad luck strikes me. As with any financial action, caveat emptor rules. Let the buyer beware.

Do they even teach caveat emptor in high school? They did when I was there. They may have even taught it in junior high. Caveat emptor roughly translates as, “Let the buyer beware.” Just because the brochure and the sales pitch sound appealing, keep in mind that your situation may make those benefits moot.

Saving and investing are vital in today’s society. The arithmetic makes it clear, the earlier a person can invest, the longer compound interest can work in their favor, and the easier it is to retire early or at least benefit from the increase in assets. Investing, however, is not just about saving. Personal finance is about saving and withdrawing; because, if there is no withdrawal, then the money effectively has no value. That’s why buying stocks versus bonds versus real estate versus commodities versus any of the variety of investments is also affected by how to turn that investment back into currency. Are there penalties? Are there hurdles? Are there delays?

I’m coming up on the seventh anniversary of My Triple Whammy. As a series of unconnected misfortunes diminished my fortunes, I started selling stocks and taking on debt. Surely, the market place was rational enough that the investments would recover, or I’d get a good job, or I could sell my house, or…something, anything would save me. My Litany of Optimism remained a unrequited effort. I had two accounts to draw from, a regular portfolio and a rollover IRA. It hurt, but I stepped up my business to full speed, decreased my already frugal lifestyle, and nibbled away at my conventional stocks. That lasted a while, but that while was shortened by that perfect storm blowing away the three most promising pillars of my diversified portfolio.

Then came the day when I had to start selling stocks in my IRA, and withdrawing those finds. Investments that had been in a tax-deferred account were sold, hit with income tax, and hit with an early withdrawal fee. Money that I saved for later in my retirement was doubly decreased by policies that discouraged withdrawals. Those policies proved that an IRA is not the same as a rainy day fund, unless I was old enough. The extra insult was that, had those same stocks been in a conventional account, instead of being taxed as income, I could’ve balanced losses and gains to decrease my annual income taxes. What remains is less than a year’s living expenses instead of potentially several or at least a few years of funding a frugal lifestyle.

I say potentially because the proper analysis would take too much time and effort, and be too emotionally painful, with the only outcome being the ability to report an exact figure in this blog. It wouldn’t recreate the money. It wouldn’t give me the opportunity to rewind and restart knowing what I know now. Do we ever get that chance? Some lessons we learn and share for the benefit of others because it is too late for our older selves.

IRAs, rollover IRAs, 401Ks, Roths, like so many ideas they were developed with good intentions, intentions that are probably better met than not. People work hard at developing these investment packages; but none of them are panaceas. Life is too uncertain to fit nicely into something that works for everyone. Each represents doing something rather than nothing. Too many people do nothing, spending more than they make without investing any of it. The book that’s the basis of this blog is Dream. Invest. Live. because in today’s society it is usually necessary to bridge the gap between dreaming a dream and living a dream with something like investing.

If My Triple Whammy hadn’t happened, my projections were that I wouldn’t need to withdraw from my IRA until required to do so at 70.5 years old. Waiting that long would’ve allowed for 32 years of compounded interest, a very nice resource for late in life.

If. If. If. Every plan is based on Ifs. Every plan is based on assumptions, both explicit and implicit. Guess how long you’ll live, short or long. Will you have any extraordinary luck, good or bad? Will the politicians change the policies between now and when you need or want the money? Counting on Social Security runs into similar issues. Even if its finances are stable, will a later administration or congress change the rules of the game?

I am altering the deal. Pray I don’t alter it any further.” – Darth Vader, The Empire Strikes Back

As I get older, I notice that my intuition has been right more often than I thought. Maybe that’s selective amnesia, but I recall the distinct moment when I was considering the possibilities. I was 38 years old, visiting home, and sitting in our family’s basement TV room. My Dad was somewhat proud that I’d retired so young. My Mom thought it meant something was drastically wrong. I’d deposited the retirement savings that had been managed by Boeing. Setting up the accounts with Schwab (which was a much younger and innovative company then) I had the choice of putting it all into one account, or separating it into a conventional account and a rollover IRA. (The Boeing funds were separated in a way too complicated to deal with here.) The thought came to mind that a regular, conventional account was the way to go, but the big “should” echoed from conventional wisdom. I listened to the collective should and not to my intuition.

My apologies to my intuition, which this week has been sticking its tongue out at me and saying “I told you so.”

My Semi-Annual Portfolio Exercise is largely a review of what remains. Almost all of it is in my IRA. As my business improves, I’m already planning on generating enough surplus that I can begin investing again. That’s something I look forward to because I still have dreams, look forward to a better life, and realize my money can make money for me, possibly faster that my business can.

And, I buy lottery tickets because the lesson I learned about extraordinary bad luck is that I could also have extraordinary good luck. Stay tuned. And, caveat emptor.

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Perspective Shift – July 2018

My perspective is shifting, and returning to an almost-forgotten feeling. This is a good, precious, and to some people, unbelievable moment. I’m welcoming it, but I’m also making sure I remember both sides, the before and the after. The difference is distinctive enough that I’m not surprised that entire populations can’t understand the “thems” that are not their “us.”

My life is easing, a bit. Business is busy. Real estate is encouraging, and even profitable thanks to some generous fellow brokers who shared their listings and contacts. Unsolicited requests to help local business and organizations have been good for my consulting and writing businesses. Things are stacking up enough that, rather than grabbing every opportunity, as I have for the last several years, I’m in the situation where I am practicing saying no, at least sometimes.

The world is full of great advice. Frequently, each group seems to be telling another group how they should run their lives. “Tolerance and diversity? Sure, as long as you do things my way.” My circle of friends and family is full of great advice. That’s not a facetious comment. I’m truly impressed with the experience, wisdom, and insights among the people I know. But, every bit of advice is based on a series of assumptions. The explicit ones are easy to discuss. The implicit ones hide behind the defenses of paradigms, denials, accidental ignorance, and inapplicable perspective.

Recently, I’ve been reading Mark Twain’s Following the Equator. For a man thought of as a humorist, he’s excellent at exposing bias and culture clashes. Oh, to have his skills. He points at inequalities, intransigencies, and ignorance while hinting at why and how one culture’s solution is nonsense in another situation.

When I was rich, or at least a temporary millionaire, I cared about the poor, the homeless, the hungry, those subjected to injustice. I did what I thought was appropriate, volunteered, and donated to various people and organizations. I continue to be amazed that treating people as if they are people is considered radical. Too many people are stripped of the title “person” and given some other label based on generalizations. But, generalizations are what define government programs and non-profit efforts.

As my money evaporated (My Triple Whammy), the issues of those in need went from academic to personal. The great advice and conventional wisdom that I was aware of became too abstract, inapplicable, and in some ways insensitive. You should eat right – but that can be expensive. You should look for different work – but stopping one job to find another means possibly losing a house and health. Beside, working hard is not a guarantee of financial success. You should exercise – but that takes time. You should meditate – but that takes time. You should, you should, you should… I began reciting an unspoken reply: “As Long As You Can Pay Your Bills,” ALAYCPYB. If you can’t pay your bills, your life changes. Advice sounds silly when the fundamentals of life are threatened and there’s no extra time or money. Survival rules.

The persistent, adventurous, and the curious can browse through the last several years of posts (not a small task) and read the chronicle of anxiety attacks, health issues, and enforced frugality that are common for people who can’t pay their bills. To those who say, “But, they should…”, I encourage them to look at the data. Suicide rates are up. The advice may be free, but evidently, something isn’t working. Consider the possibility that things have changed in America.

And yet, my perspective is shifting.

Money shouldn’t matter, and yet it does. My financial situation and business prospects have improved to the point that I can pay all of my bills as they come in. I’m close to paying off my credit card debt. The only bills I haven’t paid off were accidents of filing. I finally started spending money on things that were delayed for too long: bundle of socks, new underwear, new t-shirts. I even bought some of those plastic trays that sit under plant pots, rather than repurposing aluminum pie plates. Terracotta comes later. A splurge may happen. I know I have a big bill approached with a shift in propane, but I may buy myself an entire cord of wood. (And will probably split it with my neighbors, but it feels like a luxury, anyway.)

People tell me I look more relaxed. I know I feel more relaxed. I feel relaxed enough to now notice how tight my muscles have been in my head, neck, jaw, and chest. It is easier to drive because there’s probably enough to pay for most maintenance issues. Gas prices still bite, and must be paid to support my real estate work, but I don’t wince as much at the pump.

My perspective has changed. Instead of worrying about optimizing every minute of the day, spending as little as possible, and wondering what if anything might come next; now I find myself enjoying today and thinking about tomorrow more. Thinking, instead of worrying. Real optimism sprouting from my defense against pessimism and depression: My Litany of Optimism. I feel better.

I feel better, but I’m also as busy as ever. Ideally, I can take one day off each week, but real estate doesn’t work that way. Work continues to take from 8AM until 8PM with time for food, but there’s less freneticism involved.

As finances improve, even in the busy days, it is easier to include more of the shoulds.

Conventional wisdom claims that small businesses are more likely to fail if they are under-capitalized. That’s true. It takes money to make money. The poor don’t have enough money. The poor are under-capitalized, and yet many expect them to escape poverty without access to capital – and then they are judged as lacking intelligence, ambition, or skill. Now, I see them as trapped.

I haven’t exactly escaped, but I am making progress. I am making progress because someone capitalized me. Which sounds like ME, but in real terms, they provided the capital to help me progress. Call it capitalization and there may be straight lines in jokes, but call it charity and it becomes derogatory in some groups.

I don’t want to lose that perspective. Today, I can see both views, and can remember the more removed perspective that’s delivered with wealth. It is difficult to see the one extreme from the other extreme. Rather than generalize within a group, I’m more likely to generalize across the general population. People want a better life for themselves, their family, and frequently for their community. Everyone is fighting at least one major battle, regardless of wealth. Regardless of net worth, it is easy to imagine losing everything. I lost 98% and have met people who’ve lost more than 100%. Disasters and accidents happen. So does good luck.

My plan continues to be to write a sequel to Dream. Invest. Live.,Dream Invest Live cover though the title will be different. I’ve been riding a roller coaster through America’s classes, traveling from working class to middle class to millionaire to muddling by to…? Too often, advice comes from one perspective, and the advisor is surprised that it isn’t followed by all, or that a failure of it is the advisee’s fault. As writers know, the book may never be written. No one may care about what I’ve learned and have to share. But, I know that I’m glad to see and feel the shift, appreciate the various points of view, and continue to wonder how this will all turn out for me, the country, our society, and our species. Which advice will survive and help? It depends on your perspective.

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Maxwelton Fourth Of July Parade 2018

That title is longer than necessary, at least for anyone familiar with Maxwelton on Whidbey Island. There’s only one major parade, it’s on the fourth of July, has been held for over a hundred years, and merely has to be described as “The Parade” for any of the neighbors to know what you mean. For one day every year, the neighborhood gives up its one street and park to welcome in enough people to fill several small towns. And then, it’s gone, leaving enough snacks to keep the gulls, crows, squirrels, and chipmunks busy and wired for weeks.

The Smithsonian is collecting small town America stories, so maybe Maxwelton doesn’t qualify. Maxwelton was one of the largest towns on the island about a hundred years ago. There was even a regular Chautauqua hosted in a 3,000 seat amphitheater; but the switch from sailboats and steamships that landed on the shore, to cars on ferries at deepwater docks drew attention to other parts of the island. Today, Maxwelton is an interesting slice of American lifestyles: marvelous beachfront homes with gorgeous views on one side of the two-lane road, with farms and funkier homes on the inland side. Thanks to the county park, visitors can still access the beach, enjoy the playground, and maybe even play some baseball. It’s a mix.

The public park is the focus of the parade. There’s where the temporary plywood bandstand sits, just beside the backstop for the ball field. The parade is as ephemeral as the bandstand, pulled together just in time, and swept away to let the neighborhood get back to the business of living and relaxing by the water.

A team of volunteers organizes the event throughout the year, but it is the day of the parade that is obviously organic, casual, energetic, and fun.

Want to be in the parade? Show up. That’s about it. Show up about an hour or two before it starts. Hang out in the appropriate lot (which may have been cropped and mowed by livestock, but more likely by a John Deere). Tell the organizers why you’re there. Get a number. Get in line. Get ready to march, and stop, and march, and stop, and eventually probably get a round of applause as you pass the grandstand. Don’t be surprised if they don’t get your name right. They don’t know who will be there until everyone lines up.

If that sounds too simple, you’re right and wrong.

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Obviously, someone is going to spend as much time creating their display as the organizers do raising money, arranging for the permits, and getting a basic idea of how the day will flow. Oh yeah. Someone must be out there getting the outhouses ready. Some of the displays are phenomenal. Super-tall puppets, gardens on bicycles, tiny artistic sheds on wheels, and the inevitable politicians on floats or in convertibles or in antique cars. (I felt like an antique because I’m now older than some of the cars. Ouch.) One display was a mini-parade of paintings of winners of the Nobel Peace Prize. 36657925_10216510082763757_1441357205965111296_n - Edited

Those displays make the best photographs, and get the greatest oohs, and ahs; but it is the spontaneous displays I enjoy the most.

Got a family reunion? Get everyone in line, and have fun with it. One family cut six holes in a table cloth, draped that over the heads of a half dozen of them, and marched as a picnic table. Another group had everyone wear oven mitts shaped like crab claws. One year, a group of us bicyclists wore capes quickly made just in time for us to ride (very slowly) and chant “Occupy Your Bike!”. The cutest were, as always, the kids, pets, and kids with pets dressed in red, white, and blue with sparkles and glitter.

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As the parade marches by, many in the parade throw candy to or at the folks on the side of the road. Thanks for the thought. Ouch! An appreciated counterpoint was the local school’s garden that passed out fresh peas (or was it beans?).

As stately as a parade can seem, Maxwelton’s is far more relaxed and playful. The people in the street parade know the people beside the street, so there’s lots of authentic waving, hand-shaking, and hugging. Exuberant kids dash out to grab the candy, say hello to friends, and sometimes try to join in while parents pull them back out of the traffic.

The parade starts with a proper honor guard and ends with the inevitable fire truck with lights blazing. After the last vehicle has driven by, they all park in the park, the national anthem is played, and then the games begin.

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Within a few hours, the neighborhood will retreat to the seasonally busy level, which seems quiet in comparison. Within a few weeks, the neighborhood will return to its much quieter and less crowded year-round population. The livestock can go back to feeding undisturbed by noise. The scattered remains of candy and fireworks will be swept into the trash, or swept out to the sea by the tides.

Describing the details of every entrant and display would be worthy of a book, but in sad commentary on modern society, there are too many cautions about publicly mentioning the specifics of children doing innocent things, too many controversies if a political opinion feels it wasn’t given equal coverage, and too many opportunities to violate people’s privacy thanks to facial recognition.

Yet, for a few hours, with the help of caring people, a community can spring up, have fun, and carry away memories – whether they happened in a small town, or not.

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Semi Annual Exercise Mid 2018

Silly habits that we get ourselves into. They can be so hard to give up. Decades ago (was it really that long?), I started following Peter Lynch’s example by regularly seeing if I could describe each of my investments simply. The idea was that, if an investor can’t explain what and why they hold an investment, they should consider investing in something they understand. I set myself a schedule: every six months, write a synopsis of each company and include a simple assessment of their prospects. I was silly enough to do it on either June 30th or December 31st (I’d have to check my old files to establish the date). Now, my businesses and commitments layer that exercise on top of the end of the month, the end of the quarter, and the end of either the first or second half of the year. This time, it also included the end of the week. Silly, but I’ll continue to do so because the exercise benefits my financial fitness, even when it is somewhat painful.

Through all the ups and downs of the first half of 2018, the total portfolio value hasn’t changed much. That’s a sad accomplishment considering the record setting stock markets. But, that’s partly the plan. Missing the gains isn’t part of the plan, but not being tied to the “markets” is definitely part of the plan.

The markets are defined by the indicies, like the Dow, the S&P, and the NASDAQ. They are dominated by the mega-corporations, which are dominated by the major financiers and institutions. I don’t expect to compete against them as they shuffle between MSFT, CSCO, SBUX, and whatever at nanosecond speeds. I invest in small companies that have the potential to become big companies, diversify because some won’t make it, and sell the successes when they are in high demand and short supply as reflected in a high share price. Allow me to introduce you to three where that worked: MSFT, CSCO, and SBUX as well as several others.

The strategy worked so well, and I described it well enough, that several of my friends encouraged me to write a book about it; Dream. Invest. Live., which I did.

That strategy worked for decades until, as a few financial professionals have described it, I was hit by a perfect storm of bad luck; what I call My Triple Whammy.

Since then, my portfolio has languished with no indication of whether the lack of performance is from a fundamental change in the investment world, my perspective, or simply bad luck following good luck. Being the optimist, I look forward to the return of good luck. Being the realist, I realize something systemic like computerized trading, or mega-corporations hoarding profits in tax havens could have changed the way things work to the detriment of small businesses. Luck may also be playing a role.

My portfolio hasn’t recovered, yet I remain optimistic, though not as optimistic as previously. Small companies with small revenues frequently survive by diluting their stock. A decade or two ago, my holdings were sufficient for me to step up to a significant level. If I owned 0.1% of a company, one-thousandth of the company, and the company became worth a billion dollars, my holding would be worth a million dollars. Score! Retire. Dilution has erased that potential in all of my long term holdings. As of last year, my MVIS shares were worth 1/40th of their original ownership value. The same is true in other companies. The market cap potential persists, and may even be greater, but the number of shares is so much higher that the benefit to the individual shareholder is much lower.

I may not be as likely to retire on one phenomenal success, but if a few succeed, I can at least rest more easily and take more days off. There are mountains to climb!

(The following are synopses of the synopses. The longer synopses, a funny writing concept, are reached by links below.)

AMSC, which was called American Superconductor, hoped to do for electricity what fiber optics did for information. Their superconducting cables are finally available, but the sales haven’t arrived. The potential persists, but I can’t tell if the issue is the adoption of innovations in a conservative industry, or a management team that lacks the proper sales skills.

Asterias (AST) and Geron (GERN) have similar biotech stories. They’re both in mid-phase clinical trials, far enough along to be encouraging, but far from traditional FDA approval, and hence profits. They also both have that same issue of trying to spread the news without violating SEC and FDA rules, resulting in indecipherable press releases.

MicroVision (MVIS) has a technology that has the possibility of disrupting the technology industry the way smartphones did to laptops, which disrupted desktops, which disrupted mainframes. As I wrote in its synopsis, “The current projection is that profitability is possible in 2019, but for years the recurring theme has been that “really good news” will arrive in about six to nine months.” And, then there’s the continual dilution and a management team that has lost its credibility, at least for me.

Neophotonics (NPTN) sits in the critical industry that enables high, and higher speed internet speeds, something in high demand. I haven’t figured out how they can manage to languish as poorly as my portfolio, but maybe that’s a temporary situation for both.

The first half of 2018 has been weird enough that I don’t expect to correctly predict my portfolio’s performance in the second half of 2018. The markets don’t like turmoil, but they might like a more efficient energy infrastructure, treatments for cancers and damaged nerves, dramatically improved electronics, and appreciation for higher internet speeds. I can hope, which isn’t a strategy, but it is what I have to work with.

Here are the links to the discussion boards I use. Feel free to comment here or there, and to pass along links to others. The bigger the discussion, the better the chance of valuable insights (as long as the trolls and flamers are moderated appropriately.)

Investor Village

AMSC

AST

GERN

MVIS

NPTN

The Motley Fool

AMSC

GERN

MVIS

NPTN

Silicon Investor

AMSC

GERN

MVIS

Reddit

MVIS

 

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Karate Again And Still

Ouch. I hurt myself. No one is better at knowing my weak spots than me. I did something silly and serious. I knelt down to meditate. Creak. Groan. Grr. Since 1984, I’ve been training in the martial arts. Since I moved to the island, and especially since My Triple Whammy, I’ve missed working out in one of my style’s dojos. A few weeks ago, a local, internationally known sensei agreed to let me rent time in his dojo so I could train somewhere besides my living room or carport. Step one. Kneel down to meditate. And listen to old joints complain. It’s good to be back for many obvious and un-obvious reasons.

Remember the original Karate Kid movie? My style, Shobayashi Shorinryu Karatedo, is very much like the old guy’s style (Mr. Miyagi.) Karate is about not fighting. Karate is about defense. The biggest fight is with the self, not the other.

Most folks react as if karate is all about punching, kicking, and shouting – like the villain in that movie. One of the lessons I’ve learned is that whoever attacks exposes their vulnerabilities, and not just physically. That’s an interesting lesson to reflect on during today’s politics.

The main benefits are less obvious. They influence my approach to personal finance, entrepreneurship, and how to deal with people.

Do not move unless it is to your advantage. Also, do not block the punch that will miss. It is too easy to react when there’s nothing to react to, to start defending when someone is merely posturing. Address real threats (of which there are enough to keep my PretendingNotToPanic.com blog busy), but pause and notice how many times people read between the lines when there are no lines, when nothing was said. Moving for the sake of moving can feel like getting something done, but it is wasted energy that may be needed later. Of course, when there is a threat, act. For me, for a while, that meant working seven days a week. Now, I’ve been able to keep my house, have built some equity in it, and can start taking days off.

Tight no-tight, and breathe. People see Bruce Lee’s phenomenal physique and think martial artists are iron-solid sculptures in muscle and bone. He wasn’t tight all the time. To be tight all the time is another waste of energy. Tight is also slow. To conserve energy, be relaxed and fluid; then, to act, tighten everything at once or in such rapid succession that a punch isn’t a fist, but coming from an entire body. I kept that in mind during that seven-day-a-week work schedule because I knew I couldn’t do it forever, and that the longer I did it, the more counter-productive I’d be. Throughout, find time to breathe. Without breath, energy gets depleted. Breathe, and be able to continue.

The biggest fight is with the self, so don’t fight it, befriend it. In business, there’s an exercise that’s meant to get to the core of a situation. Keep asking “why?”. Be like an annoying little kid and keep asking yourself “Why?”. Why are we acting and feeling this way? Why are we in this situation? Why do we care? Why? Why? Why? I even ask myself that when I write a post. Know yourself and know half the battle. Karate takes that further by asking about the other half of the battle, when there is one. If there’s an opponent, why do they feel and act that way, why are they in this situation, why do they care, why, why, why. Understand them, know both sides of the battle, and find there may not be a battle. Hard to do, but karate is not known for being easy.

I’ve been training for decades, and know that I’ve only begun. My drastic retreat as I defended my essentials for life meant my training has suffered. So, it’s no surprise that I have a bit of self-imposed suffering to do.

At least in my style, a typical class starts and ends with meditation. Kneel, or sit in lotus, or at least sit, and breathe. Just breathe. Work and chores and everything else is outside the body. Just concentrate on breathing.

But, about those creaky joints. Oriental and Asian martial arts history is mostly folklore because many of the documents and institutions were destroyed in various wars and societal calamities. One story leads back to the early Shaolin temples that predate karate. Supposedly, in China, a master of mediation and defense came across a temple that housed threatened monks. The monks regularly were assaulted and robbed. They prayed, but they didn’t meditate, it was that long ago. The visitor realized they should learn how to meditate first, to calm themselves. Unfortunately, the monks were so out of shape that they couldn’t sit or kneel for long enough for proper meditation. So, the visitor decided to train them for self-defense in the meantime, with the side benefit that they’d be able to meditate better. And so began at least one martial arts tradition.

I sympathize with those folkloric monks. Even though I’ve been maintaining my practice through the various formal exercises, I’ve neglected the basics of stretching and strength training. Those basics have less to do with fighting techniques and more to do with being able to sit in meditation for very long (something I have also lacked the time to do.) One of the ironies of martial arts, at least for me, is that the speed and strength of youth are gone, but my understanding of the techniques means my young self and body would have a tough time sparring with my old self and body.

Trust intuition, because in a fight the subconscious can be a great ally.

The less baggage or weight or whatever we carry around, the easier it is to be flexible and mobile.

The person who wants to fight might just beat themself up if you give them enough time; and don’t be that person, and be prepared, just in case.

There are too many opportunities to fight at every level from the global to the societal, to the national, to neighborhood, to the internal and philosophical. Lately, I’ve focused on the personal, particularly the personal financial because food, health, and housing are basic needs for survival. It is nice to have reasons for optimism that I can loosen up from that battle, to breathe, and to move to advance.

Now, if only I could kneel without having to pop a pill.

NSKA logo

Acknowledgments

I thank Kyoshi Warren Berto of Shorin Ryu Seibukan Karatedo for the use of his dojo. In typical Whidbey fashion, an international master in a style similar to mine just happens to have a dojo within walking distance of my real estate office

I thank my sensei, Kyoshi Jerry Gould (retired), of Shobayasi Shorinryu Karatedo for teaching me for decades. In typical Pacific Northwest style, I walked into his dojo without knowing until several years later that he was the chief instructor in North America for our style. 

 

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