Reasons For Optimism – February 2022

Posted on February 4, 2022 by Tom Trimbath

Feeling a bit down? Feeling like that question is an example of massive understatement? Welcome to the modern world (as of February 4, 2022, evening, US West Coast time). You’re not alone, or maybe it’s just me and I’m alone. I suspect it has been too easy to see and hear too much bad news, lately. So, here I sit on a Friday night in February pondering the world. I wrote a post on one of my other blogs, PretendingNotToPanic.com (news for people who are eager and anxious about the future, about vertical farming. It is one of those stories that is easy to miss and not a subject of casual dinner conversation (for those who remember casual dinner parties.) That led to a tentative list of good things happening, which became a longer list, which became the inspiration to collect many of them into the following list. Reasons for optimism.

Pardon the delay in getting to the points, but this is a blog; you can skip ahead and I’ll never know unless you tell me so. This blog is about personal finance. The other blog is ideally about factual, significant, apolitical news, both pessimistic and optimistic. Since, oh, about 2015, there hasn’t been much that isn’t a repeat or apolitical. Without intending to, I realized that this list reflects my personal values, and also highlights financial opportunities in terms of investments, entrepreneurship, and job opportunities. That’s one reason the list includes stocks I own or am interested in. As for being able to buy more stock, well, maybe I’ll buy a ticket or twenty this weekend.

Vertical Farms

Once upon a time, every house was built on land. Then, we housed more people on pieces of land by housing them on top of each other. We’ve done the same with offices, parking spots, storage facilities, factories. Why not farms? It is tough to do with dirt, but aquaponics, hydroponics, and aeroponics make it possible to grown crops on top of crops without worrying as much about weather and pests. We may just have found a way to feed a lot more people.

Vertical Farms February 2022

Tiny Houses

I’ve been writing about tiny houses for over a decade for various publications, as well as within this blog. I stayed in one for long enough to see how well it would work for me. As a real estate broker, one of the Frequently Asked Questions I’m asked is some variant of; “All I want to do is buy a piece of land and put a tiny house on it. I don’t need much more than that.” Technology certainly not the hurdle. Bureaucracy is. Affordable housing? Sure. The main thing keeping many people from finding housing is other people. That’s fixable, and is far simpler than a lot of the solutions I hear proposed.

Tiny House Winners

(Disclosure: I’m a broker at Dalton Realty, Inc. http://whidbeyrealtor.com/)

Electric Vehicles

Was it really only last week that I wrote this post? Pardon me as I click on a tab.

A Gasoline Flashback

Yep. Allow me to quote myself.

“How strange it is going to be to describe how we annually used one form of diesel to move over 100,000,000,000 gallons of gasoline from around the world, to deliver it to stations, that we had to drive to, to fill up our cars’ gas tanks, hopefully without spilling a drop (or losing it to a wrecked car or ship), while making sure it only caught fire inside a few cylinders in an engine.”

Electric vehicles avoid that oh-so-weird supply chain that we assume as normal. Producing and delivering the electricity has its issues, but they are far less intrusive.

Note: That’s one reason I bought stock in Electrameccanica, a new car company building a new kind of car, sort of like the tiny house version of a car.

Introducing WNDW and SOLO

Renewable Energy

First they ignore you, then laugh, then fight, – and hopefully you win. That progression happens to many of these innovations, even the low-tech ones like tiny houses.

Our World In Data

And then there’s Geothermal Upside, which is estimated to be able to cover 23% of the US residential demand.

And just to show how innovative silly humans can be, create solar panels that are transparent and glass office towers, glass houses, and greenhouses can generate power essentially invisibly – and do so onsite or tied to the grid. Which is on reason I bought stock in Solar Windows.

Introducing WNDW and SOLO

Ah, a reader inspired this bit of personal promotion, something I came up with for tidal power.

Fresh Idea – Dockside Tidal Power

Energy Efficiency

So many things are going away from fossil fuels to electric that it would be more worrisome if nothing else changed, but things are changing. From tapes to VHS to DVD to streaming, information no longer needs to be made and mailed and eventually disposed. Computers have turned into phones, or was it phones into computers? Regardless, communication and computation are much easier and more capable – efficient enough to put in a pocket.

Oh yeah, the phone now has at least one camera, which has led to an era without needing film, and its chemicals, and its infrastructure. There aren’t even many pictures being printed anymore. Theaters don’t need to have reels mailed and loaded into mechanical marvels.

Long time readers have resiliently waded through many of my posts about MicroVision and its embedded projectors. Those mechanical marvels that have become conference room necessities might find a home in those phones. Take it far enough and laptops may join the desktop CRTs in gathering dust. Less to ship. Lower power requirements. Less to add to the landfill.

MicroVision Timeline Towards Overnight Success

Drones

As with any innovation, it can be used for good or OMG. On the positive side, drones are showing us the world from perspectives few experienced; e.g. safely viewing wildlife like whales, safely assessing disasters, improving safety through emergency medical assistance.

Drones Deliver Defibrillators

Personally, life on an island has convinced me of the inevitable benefit of drones avoiding traffic jams, ferries, and other bottlenecks. Delivering in disasters will feel like manna from the sky, but even simple things like deliveries when the roads are too icy, or after trees have blocked a road, or flying over a flood will help even when local conditions aren’t dramatic enough to make the news.

Of course there’s more. There’s also more than enough bad news. Hello, anxiety attacks, eh? But optimisms put them in perspective, especially if patience prevails.

As I wrote in last weeks’ post, I’m old enough to remember dirtier air, dirtier water, more dangerous vehicles and jobs and crime. And that was considered normal and an improvement. I remember the first Earth Day. I remember watching us land on the Moon. I remember Watergate, which seemed atrocious at the time, but now it proves to be a fine example of politicians who worked harder at managing the country and protecting its foundation. It is possible.

I’m writing this post on a laptop that’s on my lap (ergonomic apologies to my body), that’s connected to the internet wirelessly, in a room lit with LEDs, with dinner that may take advantage of a microwave oven, with a pantry that has a greater variety of food than my Mom ever got to use. I won’t list the rest. If you were there and then, you know. If you don’t know, ask a friend.

Of course I am going to acknowledge the problems, but only in general. They get enough attention already. Many of them were caused by us, which is sad, but it is also a source of hope. There are enough responsible, intelligent, resourceful people to begin turning around these issues. There are even people who are building something I wanted to work on enough that I got a degree in Aerospace Engineering – lifeboats for humanity, which just might also be avenues to resources without digging up our planet. There are companies for that, too.

Eventually, we can have an astonishing civilization, society, and life, eventually.

“When you’re going through hell, keep going.” I was surprised to learn that it didn’t start with Winston Churchill. Whoever said it first, I’ll draw from Dante’s Inferno where the only way through hell was to go through the worst to come out the other side to find the best. I guess we should just keep going.

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A Gasoline Flashback

Posted on January 26, 2022 by Tom Trimbath

I spilled some gas, as in gasoline, today. It was only about a tablespoon (~15ml), but it made me flashback and thinkforward. I’m old enough (oh no, an old geezer is going to get nostalgic – not) that I’m getting to see changes in many things, but I actually have a smell memory of diesel in the morning. I realized that in a few years, that may be as anachronistic as candlestick phones. And, of course, I start to think about stocks.

Yes, I admit it, I still have a car powered by gas. It’s not optimum, but my finances aren’t either. There are electric cars that can handle the kinds of roads that lead to the more – entertaining – trailheads, but those prices haven’t come down and their trailworthiness is only now being proved by real people driving in real conditions. It won’t be long before the switch. Sooner if I hit the jackpot.

But, there it was. I get gas on the way to my hikes because E is a bad thing to see when I’m miles away from the pavement. It’s a habit, even on a short hike like today’s. Pull in. Give the pump my card. Pull out the nozzle – and find that the person before me didn’t drain the last bit. As I tilted it towards the Jeep, that last little bit sloshed into the space around the filler tube. It was so little that it didn’t even drip onto the metal, and definitely not on the pavement; but it was enough to remind my nose of days decades ago when vapors weren’t captured and spills were ignored. 

Flashback time. My Dad gave me my first job. Nepotism! He had worked up from truck driver to dispatcher to warehouse manager to general manager. Saturday mornings I’d go into work with him and clean the office. The office was at a fuel depot. Cleaning the rugs meant using an industrial power washer. Cleaning the countertops meant using chemicals that were probably haz-mat, but that they sold because they could take almost anything off almost anything. Cleaning the bathrooms, nope, wasn’t going to do it. Their collective lack of being able to aim changed my bathroom habits back then. Ick. So, yeah, nepotism, but not exactly cushy.

A tablespoon of gasoline wouldn’t have been noticed. Full-size tank trucks of diesel, gasoline, kerosene, and petro-chemicals created a fog of smells that I became accustomed to. (I also became accustomed to the industrial smell of a steel mill as I worked my way through college, and the smell of cow manure as I went to a school that included an ag department. I’m somewhat immune to what upsets some.) A spill would only be noticed if someone ignored the new and annoying-for-the-time No Smoking signs. And yes, the place almost blew up one time. My Dad saw the flames, grabbed a fire extinguisher, and ran at it. The local fire chief thanked my Dad more than once for stopping it because they were sure that they couldn’t get there in time – and they were only a few blocks away.

That was the norm. So was everyone’s experience with engine exhaust, smoke, smog, dim lights, lack of safety equipment, and accidents. 

Eventually I moved onto a new job: staffing one of the very early self-serve gas stations. The steel mill was a welcome change. The pay was better and I was less likely to get held up. I was more likely to die, but that’s another story. 

Return to today. 

We live with a mix of petro and electric and hybrid vehicles. We also live with more environmental and safety protections. 

Electric vehicles are going from something to ignore, then laugh at, then fight because they are winning. Remember a few years ago when some states stood in their way? Unimaginable, now. 

Electric vehicles have enough range, for most; are definitely refined; and are an opportunity for innovations like autonomous operations. 

Change is accelerating, and ironically, one of the selling points about electric cars is their acceleration. (Feel sorry for the whatever-it-was that was behind me as my Jeep with its tiny engine tried to get up to speed. Hey, I wasn’t in any hurry. Deal with it.)

Flash forward. 

How strange it is going to be to describe how we annually used one form of diesel to move over 100,000,000,000 gallons of gasoline from around the world, to deliver it to stations, that we had to drive to, to fill up our cars’ gas tanks, hopefully without spilling a drop (or losing it to a wrecked car or ship), while making sure it only caught fire inside a few cylinders in an engine. 

Acceleration may win some over to electrics, but the reality of delivering gas versus delivering electricity is what is convincing me – in addition to the point source versus distributed pollution we’ve created for decades. 

Even gasoline-powered cars have already become safer, quieter, cleaner, and less smelly. Road noise should be down. Explosive accidents are less likely. Some have even wanted to add noise back in to make electric cars safer for pedestrians. Living by a freeway may not be as bad as it was. I still wouldn’t want to, but that’s because I prefer to live closer to nature than exit ramps. 

It may already be too late to be considered an early investor. (Duh.) It is one reason I bought stock in Electrameccanica (SOLO), an electric vehicle manufacturer that is betting on EVs enabling more innovations, like their three-wheel commuter vehicle. (Yep. And people laughed at the Prius.) 

There are still issues to be resolved for non-urban environments. It’s possible to strap a gas can to the outside of a 4WD. Maybe someone has spare batteries to replace that, but I haven’t seen them. Cabin heating in winter works, but as I understand it, it’s a big drain. I wonder how much regenerative braking can do while coming back down a steep gravel road. Maybe more than enough. I don’t know, and won’t for a while. I’ve seen just enough abandoned SUVs and sedans that get exposed in spring after they had to be left because they went just a bit too far in the early winter. 

I hear some say that energy stocks are still a good investment. No thanks. I understand nostalgia for simpler days. They were also more dangerous. Hanging onto the ‘old normal’ and thinking the ‘new normal’ will look like it is a symptom of ‘selective amnesia’. I invest for the future because that’s when I’ll be selling. That’s what investing is for, buy now to sell later. And later is starting to look, sound, and even smell much better. Now, pardon me as I grab a paper towel to wipe up any remaining spill – and silly as it may be, I’ll feel indulgent at wasting a paper towel. Will something replace that, too?

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Shower Sessions

Posted on January 21, 2022 by Tom Trimbath

Maybe I should take more showers. I’m not the only one. No. This has nothing (or very little) to do with hygiene during the pandemic. Like a lot of people, I had an idea in the shower a few weeks ago. Hmm. Let me clarify, I’m Not saying there were a lot of people in my shower, or that a lot of people use my shower to have ideas – let me start again before I get too distracted.

Maybe it is the lack of distractions that does it. Multi-tasking can be a trap. Busy is celebrated, but sages rarely recommend chaos. A shower is simple, essential (at least in the modern world), a difficult place from which to multi-task (though some gadget producers continue to try), but a great place to concentrate on one thing. Sadly, showers are difficult to make last long because they either run out of hot water, or require lots of energy to keep them going, or people turn into standing wrinkles. (Envy people who live near geothermal springs. Hmm.)

See what just happened? Two paragraphs gone by and I haven’t gotten to the point. Usually, I don’t let that happen because it is annoying. Get to the point or it will be TL;DR. Unfortunately, using a shower to remove distractions is counter to using a computer to type a blog post.

Allow me to flash back, (or splash back?).

Maybe you’ve seen those oval decals on cars that use two letter abbreviations to announce where the car’s owners lives. WI is a popular one for Whidbey Island.

I like Whidbey Island. There’s more than enough evidence in my books and photos. I even have a blog that is just AboutWhidbey.com . (Island living from an islander’s perspective) Yet, I don’t have an oval wrapped around a WI on my car. I sell houses on Whidbey Island (so now I’m required to post the following disclosure: I’m a real estate broker at Dalton Realty, Inc. http://whidbeyrealtor.com/); but I confuse some clients because I don’t claim that it is ‘The Best Place On Earth!’ I like it. But I also see why people like the Pittsburgh area (where I was born and raised, and one brother lives), Virginia (where I went to college), North Carolina (where my family went on vacation and another of my brothers lives), and those various places along my bicycle route across the US (Just Keep Pedaling), my walk across Scotland (Walking Thinking Drinking Across Scotland), and, and, and …

Smiling to myself while enjoying the limited supply of hot water in my house, I thought, I don’t need a label, sticker, or decal for my car; but if I did, I’d want one for Planet Earth. At which point I thought, “I bet I can make one of those.” And, “I hope I don’t forget the idea; because there isn’t anything in here to write notes with.

(Aside, A few days ago I posted something about having an idea for a blog post, then not writing it down because it was obviously unforgettable, then forgetting it. Then folks said, that’s age. I disagree. I’ve never had a perfect memory. I’m just wise enough to recognize it now.) Now, what was I writing? Ah, yes.

Yes! I didn’t need a label, but I wondered how many people would like to proudly proclaim that they are from Planet Earth. So; I have experience making stuff on Zazzle. And voila (keeping mind that voila took several days) a sticker (not a decal)!

I have another blog called PretendingNotToPanic, (long story), where it seemed appropriate, so that got added.

Ah, but since I went to college and got an aerospace engineering degree (1980) I have been an advocate of spreading out our population into space to keep from overburdening the planet. So, I wanted a version that recognized that I would consider options. Hence,

One that says Planet Earth, but also includes “But willing to relocate”.

I liked the thought. It made me grin. The entrepreneur in me knew I also had to advertise what I’d created. In the interest of equality, I put both in the same tweet – which had an unexpected effect.

Pepe? Maybe I took optimizing too far. Maybe the message had too many distractions in it. Too late. Too much else to do.

That happened about the same time as a thread about overthinking, but I’ll think about that some more, later.

The classic unanswerable question directed at creative people is; “Where do your ideas come from?” Mine don’t always come from the shower. They rarely come from times with too much going on. Usually I find something I think is simple, wonder why no one seems to have tried it, and if I care enough, I try it. With a few billion people on the planet and thousands of years of documented history, someone usually has tried it; but if they haven’t – well – that’s how inventions are made, photos taken, books, written, – – and creative uses of punctuation born.

There’s more to write about because there are more ideas to describe, but that’s probably enough distraction for now. Though there is this idea for a game about Whidbey and Camano Islands I thought up, drew up, printed out, and might develop (and expand). Imagine where I got that idea…

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The Power Of The Customer

Posted on January 13, 2022 by Tom Trimbath

I fired my bank. A few days ago I closed my account with Whidbey Island Bank. I started that account in 2005, very soon after moving to Whidbey Island. They were a bit surprised, and inquisitive, but weren’t about to change anything with the way they did things, so I exercised the power that customers have. I am no longer doing business with them. 

Closing my account is far from being a major impact on their operations. I was probably more of a nuisance and maybe even an expense because my balances got so low. They didn’t realize that was because I’d been shifting funds for months to other finance institutions as each has offered advantages that were tangible. I’ll give the bank teller credit (an interesting term to use with a bank) for asking the right question. “Why are you closing the account?” Well, let me tell you.

Getting an account with Whidbey Island Bank was a no-brainer. I moved off the mainland to get away from mega-corporations, the anonymity of the city (or even the burbs), and to simplify my life. Move to Whidbey. Bank with Whidbey. Made sense to me.

Don’t expect any great drama. It’s a bank. It shouldn’t be dramatic. 

For the first couple of years it worked well enough. Predictable. One nice thing about banking in a small town is people. They weren’t tellers. They were people. I didn’t feel like a customer. I felt like a neighbor dropping by for them to help with a chore. While that may seem natural to some and fictional to others, it is possible for people to treat people as if they are people. And they did.

The first smudge on our relationship was the flip flop of buying a house with a mortgage from them. Yay, and thanks. I’m doing business on the island which hopefully helps the island’s economy. Shop local! Which within a few months they sold off to a national brand. Sigh. OK. That’s just business. 

Banking life got back to boring, and actually somewhat engaging. One time I walked in, I was the only customer and there were three people behind the counter. One of them was a very good dancer. There was a good waltz on the radio. She came around from behind the counter. One of the others turned up the music. The other video-ed the two of us waltzing around the lobby. Sweet and fun. (The video exists, but it’s trapped behind Facebook privacy walls.)

Another time I made the simple mistake of leaving my card in the ATM. Three times in about two months. They retrieved it each time, one time suspecting I didn’t notice, once at the very close of business, and they never complained. We even made jokes about it.

Nice. 

And then came the change. They were bought out. Instead of a local bank based locally, it would now be a regional bank. At least it wasn’t national or international. They’d keep the name Whidbey, but the changes began to filter in: stationery, web sites, promotions, policies, etc. To me the feel went from a bank in the neighborhood to a remote business that just happened to be a bank. Maybe I never learned the tricks, but it seemed to be harder to call my branch without being routed through some call center. The web site Help desk seemed more focused on software than finances, as if turning it on and off again works as well for mis-directed checks as it does with a computer. To get through to my account I had to keep clicking on the box telling them to turn off their reminders, basically their popup ads. 

These were things to note, and even mention; but they are also so much the norm that I accepted them as the downsides of the modern world. I mentioned them, but I accepted them.

Let’s skip ahead a few years to when they decided to close the branch closest to my house, the one with my safety deposit box. Rather than move the contents, I emptied the box. I just had that feeling that, if they were leaving my community behind, I wasn’t required to move with them. 

Then I began realizing that the people in the bank were changing. The ones I knew were showing up at other banks, like the one I used for my business account. I dropped in on a new bank to help a friend and saw a few of them there, too. Recently I went into my bank to handle something for my account and I realized I didn’t recognize anyone there. Maybe they were there, but I know the dancer was gone, and so was the rest of the crew. 

Who was I doing business with?

Then the big panic came. My truck broke down as my business was struggling during the pandemic. (A Jeep Dancing And Credit) When I asked for help I’ll guess they tried, but when I visited one of the competitors, one that had many of the employees from the old bank, the feeling was back to friendly. Regardless of who had the better terms, when I’m dealing with anxiety-producing financial issues I want to deal with someone who is aware of the personal aspect of personal finance. I now have an account and a home loan with Savi Bank.

It would seem like closing an account would only take a few moments. Maybe it did to the folks at Whidbey Island Bank. They were courteous, efficient, and quick. Quite professional. 

To me, it took six months. Clearing transactions, making sure everything reconciled, etc. The longest delays came from turning off automatic payments and redirecting automatic deposits. When income and expenses were handled by check and deposit slips the switch could be quick. Automated systems designed to reduce a customer’s efforts can require far greater efforts when it comes time to de-automate systems twined with systems.

As I wrote above, as I closed my account the teller asked me why. I paused. In my head I listed the short version of the story I’ve told here. I also remember telling them about the things I liked and didn’t like – not as I was closing the account, but along the way. All of the things I’ve mentioned here were things I’ve mentioned throughout the years. Telling the teller that wouldn’t make any difference for either of us or the bank. I said something like, it was to consolidate my accounts and because they’d closed my branch. The response was, well, no one is down there anymore anyway. I’m down there. I live in that zip code. I bought a house with a mortgage arranged by the branch. True, the other bank there closed, but Wells Fargo has had its own issues. To them, driving the extra distance wasn’t an issue. The branch is right beside other banks, so I’d have to drive to them, too. (There’s on option in a different direction, but traffic is bit busy there and parking is asking for a fender bender.) I agreed. If I’m going to drive that far and there are that many options, then pick the option that works best for me. 

And I did.

It can be hard to switch accounts, or quit using one business to use another. Sometimes monopolies make it almost impossible to switch. But if I’ve told a business about things I’d like as a customer, and the business removes much of what makes them different, then why wouldn’t I do something different? 

In a truly free market the ultimate power a customer has is to work with whichever business provides the best goods or services. Unless I exercise it, that power is only academic. I made it real. I fired my bank.

Now about their rates for credit cards and safety deposit boxes…

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Reflecting On 2021 – A List

Posted on January 4, 2022 by Tom Trimbath

2021 is over. Yay. Whew. Wow. I felt exhausted, but that’s because I was. It was a challenging year. Ah, but there had to be good in there, and I wanted to remind myself of it. I felt like I got ahead, but more like a tractor in mud than a rally car completing a circuit. I’m sure I’ve been told to do such an exercise, but sorry that I can’t properly thank whoever mentioned it. I do know that this is the sort of thing to put into a journal or a diary, but that puts it in the dark and makes it difficult to share. Almost everything on the list involved other people; so, if you are one of them, I thank you. If you find this an example of something to do for yourself, great! But maybe save a bit of energy because I didn’t get part two written. Part one is about what was accomplished. Part two is about what was bad then but is something to laugh at now. Ah, but maybe those should be shared with friends and flavored with drinks. Oh. Not during a pandemic? Well, maybe more folks will start helping with that this year and we’ll have something massive celebrate by the end of 2022. 

2021 – Part 1

  • Firewatcher – fourth draft 
    • My first novel. Science fiction. Set within this century. The basic story is done, so now’s the time for the fun fiddly bits – and the grammar, spellchecking, book design, … At best, done this year. Probably done 2023. Could go on forever if I aimed for unattainable perfection as so many writers do.
  • Kettle Pot Cup – first draft
    • An irreverent series of essays about tea. Nothing fancy or long. Just something for lovers of tea. (Tea lovers is something else.) Words and photos and making it all look pretty enough for a gift book. Planning to donate profits to a tea-pickers’ non-profit.  
  • Twelve Months at Possession Preserve produced
    • Book 8 of 5 (do the math), of photo essays about nature on Whidbey.
  • Twelve Months at Dugualla Bay photos acquired
    • Book 9 of 5 (do the math), of photo essays about nature on Whidbey. Planning to finish by April, maybe sooner.
  • drafted a Whidbey game
    • A simple, easy game that came to mind while seeing long ferry lines, bored kids, bored adults, and might encourage more exploration of the island. Planning to complete by August.
  • helped people (try to) buy houses or land (Required Disclosure: I am a real estate broker with Dalton Realty, http://whidbeyrealtor.com/)
  • made a few public online presentations about real estate on Whidbey Island
  • worked on four blogs (~140 posts)
    • Wrote hundreds of thousands of words.
  • took hundreds of photographs
    • Gotta get a new camera, though.
  • 2 or 3 videos picked up by news outlets
    • Hmm. Another reason to get a new camera.
  • posted and tweeted
    • Did you notice? Twitter is getting more popular, for me.
  • watched MVIS hit the news, good and bad
    • Oh, the drama as my faithful old hopeful story stock got caught in the ‘Meme stock’ craze, then returned to doing what it’s supposed to be doing, running a company that may upset the display industry, and may enable the autonomous vehicle and smarthouse industries, and more – or not, because it hasn’t succeeded, yet.
  • hoped for re-retirement, then saw it fade
    • Saw the potential for my net worth to rise significantly, then fade, but the echo remains and may manifest itself this year. Hopes or plans?
  • Social Security
    • Started receiving Social Security and aghast at how similar the interactions were to those of bill collectors.
  • bought a new 2016 Jeep
    • …because my truck broke down once too many times.
  • donated truck
    • And made sure it went to a non-profit that could use it rather than simply sell it.
  • credit score
    • When I had to replace the truck, I learned that my years of financial efforts got me to the highest credit score the dealership had ever seen. And confirmed that with various independent sources.
  • HELOC
    • With a credit score like that I realized I could get a Home Equity Line Of Credit against my house, which meant I didn’t have to sell it. Yes, I was that close to moving off the island.
  • hiking, again
    • I have a Jeep again! Hiking has commenced. Snowshoeing and skiing are anticipated. I am also following my doctor’s written prescription to go on one hike per week, at least. (They knew I wasn’t likely to follow their other advice, but this one I’d do. Unexpected bonus: my knees feel better. Go figure.)
  • retired more anxieties
    • It may be using debt, but I was able to start un-deferring some deferred issues.
  • shook my head at the news
    • Duh. Ongoing.
  • wore masks, washed my hands, kept my distance, conditions permitting
    • Sigh. Ongoing.
  • dancing
    • Was even part of the graphics for a Goosefoot dance poster. (and wondering why they don’t have a graphic of two geese dancing.) But aside from that, not enough dancing. See above. 
  • resocializing
    • Practice. Practice.
  • tried to laugh
    • Practice. Practice.
  • tried to listen
    • Ironically, easier in person because body language means so much.
  • missed hugs
    • Some day. Hopefully soon and part of a long series of celebrations for all the hard work we’ve all been through.
  • worked too much, played too little
    • Even my doctors told me so.
  • …and thinking that I missed something.
    • And not worrying about the fact that I did.
  • Ah, but I’ve been told that we can all get back to work and be busy in 2021 2022. Eep!

2021 – Part 2

Making fun of the bad and sad and mad times. But as I said above, maybe that’s best shared with the folks that will get the jokes – and who knows what it took to get through.

Thanks for coming along for the ride. I hope you enjoy your list, too; because I look around and see such impressive people handling tougher challenges. That’s a skill that will be in demand as we enter into whatever new normal is coming.

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Popular Posts In 2021

Posted on January 1, 2022 by Tom Trimbath

The top ten in 2020:

So, can you tell that MicroVision (MVIS) was headline news this year? Healthcare and Drewslist were represented, but that’s from immense traffic in previous years. But, none of the posts about inventions, affordable housing, community, or the basics of personal finance were able to rise above the tide of news about that one company. The next most popular non-MVIS post has almost only half the amount of traffic. So, should I abandon the original intent of this blog, basically personal finance for frugal folk? I have stocks I haven’t abandoned for twenty years; so, no. But maybe a separate YouTube channel about stocks? As if I don’t already have enough Lines In The Water.

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Semi Annual Exercise EOY 2021

Posted on December 31, 2021 by Tom Trimbath

As I note at the start of my stock synopses that are posted on the discussion boards listed below;

“INTRO Here’s my semi-annual exercise to see if I remember why I own the stocks I own, and so I can check back and see if their stories have changed. I post in case it helps others too.“

Portfolio analyses can be made overly complex. Single portfolios are tough enough if money flows in and out. Multiple portfolios are tougher, especially if money flows from one to another, like when I had to sell some stock in my IRA to add cash to my regular account from which I pay bills. And then, there are years when one stock can act as a summary of the complexity. Frequent readers won’t be surprised that MVIS fits that description. 

In April 2020, MVIS was priced at $0.15. Dismal times for my portfolio. By the end of 2020 it had climbed to just about $5. Hope! The percentage rise was great, but a large percentage increase of a small number can still be a small number. But that hope, that was valuable. Within the first quarter of 2021, MVIS rose to $28, with some interesting intra-day spikes. Investor sentiment carried my sentiments higher, with the potential of easing lots of monetary and personal anxieties. By mid-year it was back to just over $16. Now, it is back to about where it was 12 months ago; ~$5. 

Google Finance

That’s old news that can be tracked through my previous posts. (follow the tags for MicroVision & MVIS)

The part that is less obvious is the emotional ride. Hope rose as the stock became a good source of story. The hope took a while to settle in, and when it did my mood began to improve as years of patience and struggles looked to be over. Then the slips, and the slips, and the rationalization that “Well, at least it is better than two years ago.” As the stock dropped 50% from its peak and personal expenses rose the numbers looked less optimistic, but the optimism that remained superficially continued while an unease crept in beneath it. In the midst of a complex year, it took a while to recognize the emotional ride of seeing heights then having to accept a retreat to overly-practiced coping mechanisms. It is a good thing I was frugal by choice years before it became a necessity. 

The stock charts are easier to draw. The emotional charts are more important. The two are as tied as the words ‘personal’ and ‘finance’. 

There are many ways to measure a portfolio. My broker, Schwab, and others provide a variety of ways that also provide a variety of answers depending on what is measured: individual stocks, IRA vs regular portfolios, cash flows, deposits, withdrawals, performance relative to cost basis, or yearly, or the rest of the market, etc. Take your pick for your portfolio and your personal perspective. 

One basic measure captures the personal and the financial: how much do I have to work? Without assets, income heads straight to expenses, and hopefully there’s something left over. Many aren’t fortunate enough to have excess. Work is a necessity. At the other end of the spectrum, assets are sufficient to sustainable retire. Work becomes discretionary. Work because I want to (but am I taking away someone else’s opportunity to have a job to they can meet their basic needs?). The middle is most common; a bit of excess, or at best more than enough to live but not enough to retire. I am in the first of those three parts of the continuum (#ALAYCPYB).

Within these last two years I’ve been able to see the entire spectrum, though my re-retirement was only glimpsed at the time. At that time, however, projections of my stocks suggested I could (not guaranteed but could) have enough assets by the end of the year to cover the majority of my money-related anxieties, and maybe even re-retire. My physiological and emotional health looked forward to that. Sigh. I’ll check my lottery tickets soon, maybe after the New Year begins. (The roads are a bit icy here, now.)

And yet, I feel confident about 2022. 

LTCX and GERN, my two biotechs, both announced (forward looking statement alert) expectations of commercial availability of their respective treatments within the next few years. News about treating people beyond trials is encouraging. Twelve months from now those stocks may be much more in demand.

MVIS has been a rocket ship roller coaster, and 21st century rocket ships can fly again. At least one product has launched. Another seems imminent. Others are advancing. The company is better known and respected. And management was smart enough to raise enough funds to skip a buyout and possibly remain independent. 

NPTN announced that it would be bought out, so I redeployed those funds to SOLO (electric vehicles for sale now with more models to come) and WNDW (solar energy windows which have uses that opaque panels can’t match – e.g. greenhouses.) Those holdings are new, small, and encouraging; but largely moot unless I can find funds to bolster those positions. But, that’s the way investing works.

My personal finances outside of my portfolios also elicit encouragement, but those are outside the scope of my semi-annual portfolio review. That story will be chronicled, as usual, in the rest of this blog. For more details about the stocks, here are links to various discussion boards where you can find my synopses, as well as others’ points of view. For more details about how I do what I do, there’s a book that I wrote at the request of several friends: Dream. Invest. Live. Maybe you can help my personal finances by buying a copy – though the frugal part of me recommends checking one out from a library.

The following links are to  various discussion boards I follow. Many of the independent investors who contribute to the discussions provide in-depth analyses that either aren’t available elsewhere, or would cost too much to buy. The other advantage is the diversity of perspectives. Unfortunately, I don’t engage as much as I did before. Some discussions have degraded due to lack of moderators, or have too many immoderate voices. Some boards are effectively ghost towns, or feel like cavernous empty warehouses. Regardless, here are the sites I continue to visit, even if it is only to lurk and listen. 

I encourage you to tune in, because more voices (as long as they’re mature) make for a better conversation. Maybe I’ll read you there.  

Investor Village

LCTX

GERN

MVIS

SOLO

WNDW

Motley Fool

GERN

MVIS

Silicon Investor

GERN

MVIS

Reddit

LCTX

MVIS

SOLO

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White Christmas-ish 2021

Posted on December 26, 2021 by Tom Trimbath

Snow days, an excuse, a hint, time to take it easy. Happy, Merry, Joyous ___fill__in__the__blank.

Tom Trimbath's avatarAbout Whidbey

It’s 2021, when every present has a chance of being delivered just in time or maybe a little late. For Whidbey, snow for a White Christmas arrived on the day in some places, and a day later in others. Down near the water, less snow. Along the ridges, much more. The island is so geographically and meteorologically diverse that there is no one number to pin on the island, as in “Whidbey got four inches of snow.” Considering road conditions and the weekend, there’s more reason for many to not drive, stay home, and enjoy the gift that will eventually clean up after itself. 

Mentioning the time for gifts, a personal one is keeping this somewhat delayed post very short post so there’s more time to relax and play.

Ho. Ho.

(And if you do have to drive, may you be gifted with safe travels.)

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My MVIS Dream as of December 15 2021

Posted on December 16, 2021 by Tom Trimbath

To sleep, perchance to dream. But sleeping is a bad investing strategy. With a stock like MVIS it is possible to be completely awake and watch emotions run from fear to greed, wonder and hope, with a very large helping of what the…? Dreams come and go, which may be the history for many MVIS speculators this year. Reality has been going on for decades, and isn’t over, yet.

How many companies have stories like Google asking to be bought out for a fraction of today’s value, or Netflix offering itself to Blockbuster? MicroVision may have seen something similar happen within the last two years. How many companies were being courted to buy MicroVision when MVIS was under $1? Two years ago, before MVIS hit bottom at $0.15, the company was valued at $0.085B, or $85.0M, or slightly more than the price of the most expensive house for sale in the US in 2021. As I type, the company’s market cap is $960M, up more than ten-fold from the end of 2019, and down from ~$29 in the middle of 2021 to a whimpering price of $5.85. Eep. Or is it, yay!?

For over a decade, maybe two, I conduct an exercise of reviewing the stocks that I own, and why I own them. Simply because life is hectic, I tend to begin writing a synopsis for each stock sometime in mid-December. Limiting MVIS to a synopsis has become more of a struggle than any other company I own stock in. Considering the ride the stock and its shareholders have been on for the last two years, I decided to dedicate a post to MicroVision and its stock, MVIS. Check back again on New Years Eve to see if the synopsis is any shorter or is simply a pointer back to this post with some updated prices.

2020 and 2021 were the era when MVIS became a meme stock. I’ve always thought of MicroVision as a story stock, a company with a story about an impressive potential, and hence a stock that was attractive to me. Their struggle has been grueling to long term shareholders who held but didn’t trade. Suddenly, a new force entered the investing environment that cared more about the stock, the shorts that were influencing it, and whether a concerted community effort could deliver their version of justice by buying up the stock, trapping the shorts, and benefiting from costing the shorts lots of money while holding on long enough to sell at overly optimistic prices. Concerted community efforts are difficult to sustain, while professional shorts have the resources and organizations to hopefully survive the siege, at least this time. Hence, the stock rose from $0.15 to ~$29.

Google Finance

At the same time, a new CEO saw the company as drastically undervalued, and worked hard at simultaneously developing products while shopping some or all of the company to various possible buyers. $85M for a potentially industry changing technology? That’s a cheap acquisition when measured against the time and money necessary to defend against the tech. Playing catchup can put an entrenched or developing product line at risk. As months progressed, encouraging words suggested (forward looking statements, etc.) that many significant buyers were seriously interested. Expectations of a full or partial buyout within a few more months were high. That didn’t happen. 

My speculation (Speculation! Guessing! Just me thinking about my investments! I’m not a investing professional, just an independent shareholder attempting to understand my investments!) I digress. My speculation was that if things went well, the anti-shorts could help drive the potential buyout buyers into an auction as various competing mega-corps kept their competitors from gaining an advantage. 

Note: If, Could, Expectations, Encouraging, = nothing definite. But nothing is completely knowable, there are always risks, and MicroVision has certainly been risky – and hence, possibly rewarding. Or not.

Another of my speculations. Prudent companies interested in buying the company necessarily take time and work with caution before making a decision and acting on it. They have shareholders to answer to and careers to guard. While MVIS may have seemed like a bargain at the beginning, at some price point it would no longer be a bargain, at a higher price point it might only make sense on a strategic level, and eventually become too expensive to make sense for them – especially if none of the other bidders were committing to a purchase. The stock loses some support, the price drops. As the anti-shorts don’t drive the shorts into a squeeze, their support weakens, the shorts strengthen, and the price drops more. 

Again, this is one of many possible scenarios. I doubt even the CEO knows the entire story because looking inside a mega-corp could be considered illegal, trying to track the shorts seems fruitless to other CEOs I know, and the anti-shorts community it so fractured that only pieces can be seen.

So, time for one set of perspectives. MVIS is at under $6, started the year at a similar level, wandered through some exciting spikes, all of which looked phenomenally fine after the April 2019 low of $0.15. Which perspective is yours? Whether you own the stock or not, is there a level that you identify with: irrational optimism, irrational pessimism, or your perfectly rational perspective? 

So, time for a different set of perspectives. (See why this doesn’t fit into a synopsis?)

My perspective

I invest in companies by buying their stock. 

I bought my first shares of MVIS when I saw a TV news broadcast that included one of the anchors putting on a pair of glasses that had a miniature TV display superimposed on his vision. The broadcaster couldn’t replicate his experience, and it looked somewhat uncomfortably staged, but I could see (no pun intended) the potential. That was during the irrational exuberance (the Fed chairman’s phrase) of the Internet Bubble when valuations were testing new territories. (Another hint about the era was that I was actually watching broadcast TV for news.)

But, I’d seen the technology advances from punch cards to keyboards, from mainframes to mini-computers to PCs to laptops, from reading printers to CRTs to LCDs/LEDs and saw the natural progression from fragile flat panels to virtual imaging. Why mine massive materials to ship to massive factories to build ever bigger screens that include large warehouses filled with enormous boxes that would require bigger trucks to deliver big boxes to stores where customers would drive to them to buy then load those boxes into their cars to get them into their houses and then hook up the device while the packing material heads to the landfill? The MicroVision display unit might only be as large as a pair of ski goggles, and would inevitably get smaller. 

By the time I started attending stockholders meetings the company was also developing a cell phone (not a smartphone, yet) that projected a video call’s content directly onto a user’s retina. Not even any need for the glasses. Daylight readable. A short while later they were developing a Head Up Display unit for mechanics and construction workers. (Hello, Hololens fifteen years early.) Then, HUDs for cars. Then, miniature medical cameras, high-speed barcode scanners for industrial applications, and maybe even miniature display projectors.

The miniature display projectors progressed from the size of two smartphones (because it was now that era) down to projectors that fit inside the phone. Along the way, the projectors actually hit the market, including one in a robot. (That’s a story, too.) 

Bored by all the side stories? They are the stories that didn’t promise but were massively encouraging to shareholders who were watching profitability advance from 2-3 years from now, to 1.5-2 years, to 9-18 months, to 6-9 months. Do the math. Those original profitability dates were off by a factor of ten. The progress has not been gradually improving; there have been many ebbs and flows, but progress.

For investors with patience, and an appreciation of the potential, it was easier to hold on. 

Within the last two years the company has been helping develop consumer displays, interactive touchless displays, home sensors, augmented reality devices, and laser imaging devices for autonomous vehicles. That’s a much broader product line. Surely something will succeed.

And something did, sort of. Hololens. Microsoft’s augmented reality display includes MicroVision projectors. (By the way, keeping track of which ‘Micro’ to keep track of isn’t easy for some. Don’t be surprised if you get confused.) Hope rose significantly, particularly because that news hit about the same time as the buyout prospects and the anti-shorts crowd arrived. Layer all three into a composite structure and the future looked fun and profitable. 

And then the shrinkage began as described above. Other product lines didn’t gain commitments, or experienced postponements. The company seems to be relying on Hololens and whatever will happen with LiDAR, the sensors for autonomous vehicles and more.

Throughout, the company has survived by diluting the stock. They aren’t in debt, but without significant revenues, the company was always having to deal with potential bankruptcy (from my perspective). The current management team was wise enough that during the price spike, they sold stock and raised so much cash that any buyout can be considered optional, for a while. Not being bought out means they are more in control. Instead of the profits being absorbed into a mega-corp, those profits can create significant wealth for the company and its shareholders – but it may take a year or two. 

MicroVision’s story is not just about memes. It isn’t just about MVIS. The story is deep enough to warrant a book, which I might write, but I’m writing two or three others currently. Others know the story better. All of us are hampered by the company’s reliance or restrictions or both on Non-Disclosure Agreements which have limited what the management can or want to tell us. (To the extent that news about Holoens may have only been revealed because a shareholder bought one of the multi-thousand dollar units and dismantled it so see if there was MicroVision Inside.)

I continue to hold because I return to the fundamentals of the technology. Whether MicroVision develops it or not, I have literally seen what I think is the next generation in human-computer interfaces, and how that is extending into automation industries. If MicroVision gains even a small market share and remains independent, I might be able to re-retire. I hoped, expected, and actually began to plan for that as MVIS rose through $20. MVIS has now fallen through $6. I will not ignore that emotional price. I hold, however, because MicroVision, the company, the employees, the technology, the markets, and the industry continue to impress me with the positive, disruptive, innovative potential that I am invested in. 

While I wait I dream about what will happen next.

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Google MegaMillions Story Stocks In 2021

Posted on December 10, 2021 by Tom Trimbath

Thank you, Google. (And thanks, Vox.com for reporting on it.) One of my pet peeves is end of year compilations that are compiled before the end of the year. Google listed the top searches in 2021, already. Hey, what would happen if the aliens dropped by for a visit, huh? Back on track, Tom. Vox mentioned items that were I’ve been watching too. I just didn’t know anyone else cared. Two of them touched on personal finances: the lottery and meme stocks.

“Meme stocks like AMC and GameStop were also newly popular searches in 2021. They were also, incomprehensibly, well-performing on the stock market this year.
…
Trending searches for Mega Millions lottery and stimulus checks suggest regular revenue streams weren’t quite panning out.” – Vox

And, no, I did not win the Mega Millions lottery jackpot – but that doesn’t mean I’ll quit trying!

Washington’s Lottery

And, what they call ‘meme’ stocks I call ‘story’ stocks; something I’ve been writing about for over a decade. (Lottery Ticket Stocks)

Cue conventional wisdom, cliches, knee-jerk reactions. Or, know there’s a different perspective on such things. 

“Lotteries are a voluntary tax on the poor.“

“Risky stocks are where fools throw away their money.“

Or, as Vox also reported;

“Perhaps undergirding this newfound interest in the stock market — and alternative assets as a way to get rich quick — is the persistent economic uncertainty in the US.“

They use nicer words. I call it desperation strategies. 

When a person has more than enough money to pay the bills, a lottery ticket can be solely entertainment, a ticket to dream of luxuries – with a slight chance of seeing it happen. The cost of a ticket doesn’t impact a budget or a retirement plan.

When a person doesn’t have enough money to pay the bills, or is only paying some bills while ignoring other necessities, a lottery ticket is a ticket to dream of covering all of the necessities, and maybe more. Instead of buying a new Mercedes, they may envision finally scheduling a surgery, or fixing a foundation, or paying for school or day care or insurance. And it can only cost a dollar for a ‘normal’ jackpot, or a few dollars to reach that over-the-top dream money. The budget impact might be (barely) noticeable, but minimal compared to the price of a gallon of gas or even a bus ticket. (Though one thing nice about Whidbey Island is that the bus rides are free; which is a story in wisdom, insight, and practicality mixed with compassion.) As for retirement plans…ha! 

A few years ago I heard an economist put lottery ticket prices in a different perspective. A lottery ticket costs a dollar or so, and provides an entertainment benefit while the purchaser exercises their imagination with a phenomenal upside potential. A movie costs much more, is over in under two or three hours, and has an upside limited to a few memories – and maybe a few more calories from the butter on the popcorn. (Another thing going for Whidbey where The Clyde is a bargain in both over the mainland theaters.)

I have an additional perspective. Eventually every lottery is won by someone. For that someone, it could life-changing, even life-saving. For a few dollars I contribute to someone’s very good day – with a chance that it will be me. Why wouldn’t I do that?

Ah, but for bigger budget items: stocks.

The big news that Google and Vox described was about AMC (the mega-plex movie theater company) and GAME (for Game Stop, the video game company). (Gamestop And Moving Smaller Stocks) Their stories were where I first heard the term ‘meme stocks’. The ‘meme’ made the companies sound like Internet Bubble companies, companies that had vaporware instead of real products and services. Popups that will vanish within years, maybe months. I used the term ‘story stocks’ to describe the startups that I invest in which have stories but no products or services, yet. Every company starts that way. Buy in early when the company is being laughed at or ignored, sell when the company becomes the must-have stock. (Details in my approach and my history are in my book, Dream. Invest. Live.) Some consider them get-rich-quick stocks. The irony is that AMC was founded in 1920, GAME in 1984, and MVIS in 1993 (the one I’ve owned since 2000). Quick? Meme? These companies existed far before the term became so popular.

All three stocks have been laughed at. All three were heavily shorted by investors who thought the stocks would become worthless (or could be manipulated to become worthless according to those who know more than I do.) Some bought the stocks because they like the companies. Some bought the stocks because they liked the stock. Some bought the stocks because the companies could be bought out. Some bought the stocks because they hoped to attack manipulative shorts by driving up the prices while tying up the shares to create a short squeeze. Every stock has an community of investors with a variety of motivations, but this year has been ridiculous as new players learned the old rules and tested new tactics and strategies. 

It made for a wild year, even for me and my shares of MVIS. For reasons complex enough to inspire several other posts, MVIS surged, my expectations were elevated, and my dreams of becoming financially secure again were re-awakened. And, the surge passed, and dreams delayed, again. 

The sad? news is that MVIS is ‘only’ up over 120% this year, and ‘only’ up 4260% since Spring 2020. Why am I disillusioned? At one point MVIS was up over 18,000%. Double that stock price, and debts could be gone, or necessities so taken care of that a few upgrades would be possible, or both. I even joined in the speculation that could see the almost-lottery-style odds that would re-retire me. OK, but up 120%. So, maybe I wait another year or two or whatever. 

Google Finance

AMC and GAME? AMC up 600%. GAME up 1,094%. [sarcasm on] “Those silly meme stocks. Those people are stupid for investing in them.” [sarcasm off] There were some who bought at the high and watched the fall, but there were also others like the few who emailed me directly to tell me that they are now multi-millionaires. Silly? If it works, it works. 

Google Finance
Google Finance

Repeating what Vox reported and commented; “persistent economic uncertainty”. Or my version, desperation strategies. 

One reason I’d like to write a sequel to Dream. Invest. Live. is because I’ve been on a roller-coaster through America’s wealth classes. So much of what I hear as conventional wisdom comes from a position of ease that thinks any un-ease or even dis-ease is merely a matter of perception. ‘If poor people only thought right they’d have all the money they needed, and more.’ It is also common to say that it takes money to make money. That’s a wonderful statement, but is rarely extended to the reality that the poor are defined by not having money. No money, no money to be made, and the poor remain poor. But, for the price of a lottery ticket or a cheap stock, there’s at least the dream, the slight hope, and the slim chance that maybe it will be possible to do more than struggle to survive and to actually live.

As for end-of-year summaries, compilations, and reports, I generate several about stocks, as well as for each of my blogs. If you’re interested, check back in early 2022. I always hold out the possibility that Santa will deliver a jackpot to me, or that the aliens might drop by, or both. Stay tuned – but wait a few weeks.

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