TGCB – One Company One Story

Posted on August 11, 2023 by Tom Trimbath

Welcome to another story and another video in my One Company One Story series.
This time, Tego Cyber (TGCB).

Here comes the amateur legalese.

I began investing in companies and their stocks in the late 70s, but am Not a certified investment professional.

My style and history of investing is described in Dream. Invest. Live., a book I wrote by request – which came out as the Great Recession (the Second Great Depression) began. Don’t underestimate luck. Oops. https://www.amazon.com/-/e/B0035XVXAA

My personal finance blog (a blog about my finances) is: https://trimbathcreative.net/

I am Not investment professional. This is Not financial advice. 

Tego Cyber. Tego Cyber. Where had I heard that name, before? A friend mentioned it. We talked about it. I went to add it to one of my stock watchlists, and it was already there. Cool. Coincidence. Fate? Tego Cyber evidently made it onto my lists months, maybe years ago. It is a small company, working in a vital yet easily overlooked industry and fit many of my criteria. I guess this month will be about that company and that stock.

“Autonomous Threat Correlation and Hunting”, that’s their market. One way to figure out that that means is to browse their web site. They help guard against: ransomware, malware, dark web activities, espionage, basically lots of bad guy stuff. Those are not the sort of things the general public invests in, but are very familiar terms within the security industry. 

I am familiar because I’ve been a user of computers since the late 70s and have watched the threats change around me. I’m also familiar because I owned stock in f5 (FFIV) which also had such protections. FFIV was easily overlooked, and then became in demand. (Bought it at about $3, sold at about $44, made a downpayment on my home, wish I’d hung on because at its peak over $200 I could’ve bought this house for cash. Just because it is overlooked doesn’t mean a stock won’t eventually become properly valued.)

Tego aims to find a slice of that market. I am interested because, simply, because we’re not using computers less. According to Google, the company was founded in 2019, which must have been tough because: 1) any young company can have growing pains, and 2) getting to work during the pandemic was chaotic for everyone. Analysts probably know easier subjects to research.

Google Finance
Google Finance

But what makes Tego unique? Without being an expert in the field that can be hard to discern, but their web site aludes to effectively more seamless operation: fewer platforms to log in to, autonomous operations, whatever they consider next-gen. Sorry. More research is required.

Tego seems to be a risk/reward case study. They are young and small, so their risk is greater. Their market cap is less than $100,000,000. That’s a lot of money to me but not a lot for a public company. Recent reports showed big losses, but also some product progress. This is their beginning, but investors are waiting and watching to see if any customer cares. The industry is measured in billions of dollars, so the reward is potentially great.

Unfortunately, products like theirs can be so arcane that analysts avoid them, and if analysts avoid them, then I am more interested in them. Their lack of attention can be an opportunity to buy when they are undervalued.

This other aspect may seem silly, but it is an encouraging sign. Some of the graphics on their page look AI generated. I must admit that I expected ultra-conservative, bland, lifeless content. Instead, someone there is at least aware of current trends. Glad to see it.

I wish I knew more, so I probably will. And maybe having friends who are interested will mean I don’t have to do all the work, alone.

I don’t know what’s going to happen; but, I hope they survive and thrive. I’ll be watching.

The video:

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Patience And Unsolicited Good News

Posted on August 5, 2023 by Tom Trimbath

Tomas got a contract to sign? Cool. Hey, wait. Tomas is a character in the sequel to my scifi novel, Firewatcher. How is he getting a contract? Has AI gone crazy? Ah. Oh. Typo. Proof that something real was happening that involved a real human. The contract was for me, and is part of a nice soft cascade of good news. Maybe this ‘be patient’ thing is finally decided that sooner is better than later, and now is better than sooner. My finances improve in intriguing ways.

Last week’s blog post hinted at the good news. I received an unsolicited job offer, and I accepted it. Hence, the contract. A local real estate brokerage with a well-established regional presence has hired me to help write about where I live, Whidbey Island. As with any new job there are lots of unknowns, like how they prefer to be referenced and how much I can say about what I’ll be doing. One thing that intrigues me is that they are producing something I have been interested in for a long time, but didn’t have the resources to complete practically. Stay tuned (as always).

Another email came in at the same time. Again, unsolicited. In 2016 I wrote a post about one of my Fresh Ideas. Someone I do not know somehow found my idea for Dockside Tidal Power. Check the Comments section for last week’s post. Evidently, “I wanted you to know that your inspiration has reached “go for it” status…” Cool. One of the reasons I started my Fresh Idea series was my opinion that some ideas should pursued rather than be sequestered. In the American ideal I should pursue each of my inventions. It is The American Way! In real America, patenting an invention is: 1) not guaranteed to be successful or useful, 2) can cost thousands of dollars to make sure it isn’t infringing on another patent, 3) can cost as much as a car or a house to prove, 4) can cost even more to market and sell, and 5) can take decades. Our civilization and the planet’s climate need cleaner power now, not at the convenience of my finances and my schedule. I hope they succeed; and I hope I see financial and possibly practical benefits, too. I wonder if my neighborhood’s marina could power my neighborhood during our too-frequent outages.

Rewind a day or two and see me sitting in the library. I was checking emails for that contract when a friend happened to see me. By the end of that unsolicited conversation they’d asked me to help them with one of their writing and marketing projects. I’ve been so busy for the last few years that I have forgotten to mention – market – my services. So, hey, allow me to let them inspire me to mention to you that I am also a business consultant working with creative people, like artists and inventors and entrepreneurs. 

The other reason I was in the library was because I am finally going to write that screenplay based on a true story about the era of sailing ships and India. A murder is involved. So is a child’s wonder. So are harsh lessons and someone’s passage through adolescence. Producing this screenplay has been on my To-Do List, the to-do list that is In Caps, for decades. Two weeks ago (Rushed Writing During A SciFi Expo) I was at a scifi expo because of my scifi book, Firewatcher; but found myself talking to someone ‘in the biz’ who was enthused with the story – and even described how I could simplify the production and make the movie more affordable and more likely to happen. 

Keep in mind, this is all happening within the last few weeks.

Skip topics and get real. A month ago I climbed my ladder to my roof. After each 4th of July I check to see if there was any damage from the, um, unprofessional fireworks. No problem. Yay! But. Oops. On an expanse of dirty white roof was a solid black square, about one square foot. It was noticeable. I’ll spare you the homeowner details. But, that had to be painted to match the painted part. OK. Go to the hardware store – and learn that they don’t sell roof paint in pints, only gallons. Also learn about the inflation in paint prices. Sigh. OK. Buy a lot of paint for a tiny job, and then paint other things to use up an entire gallon of paint. Well, while painting that I was also painting the deck, the stairs, the… The best way to use up paint is to paint things. This morning was my time to use up the rest on soffit and fascia, a utility access cover, and oh why not finish by painting the woodshed. And then a light rain came. Done in time without a plan, and with an excuse to take a break.

Plans? Ha!

Patience meets serendipity meets a chaotic world.

My house looks crisper and cleaner. (I’ll finish painting the rest of the roof before autumn, I hope.) My finances are shifting (hopefully to something more sustainable and comfortable.) 

Me. Me. Me. But then, as I understand it, when I write about finances I have to make it about not-about-anyone-else. My apologies. I appreciate your tolerance.

I don’t know if this is a blip in my life or if long-term efforts are finally producing significant, positive, sustainable results. 

Most lives can be planned for, or at least planning personal finances sustains many businesses in the finance industry. But every life is not lived from the center of a bell-curve. There is no average person. If someone was publicly declared ‘average’, they’d instantly be uncommon. One on side of the bell-curve are people with a surplus of good luck. One the other side of the bell-curve are people with a surplus of bad luck. And those positions can change in either direction. I’ve experienced both and witnessed an amazing variety of realities. Nothing is certain. Nothing is guaranteed. Don’t be surprised if plans don’t go according to plan. Don’t be surprised if patience takes its time without regard to immediate requirements. And sometimes plans and patience are ignored by unsolicited influences that may appreciate years, decades, of efforts and experiences.

Speaking of which, can I also interest you in anything I’ve produced over the years? Some books, perhaps? America and bicycling, walking Scotland, hiking and skiing the Cascades? Some AI-inspired scifi, perhaps? Or how about photos of Whidbey Island’s natural shoreline? Available as prints, cards and even as books. But like many people I know, I’ve patiently been producing views of the world for decades. Who knows which, if any, people will care about? 

As a population, we’ve been working on a myriad of issues for centuries. Maybe with a bit of patience something positive, significant, and sustainable will arrive unsolicited but welcome. Sooner is better than later, and now can be better than sooner.

In the meantime, I think I’ll take a break for the evening. I want to be ready for what happens next.

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Tom Got A New New Job

Posted on July 28, 2023 by Tom Trimbath

Well that was unexpected. Earlier this month I got an email, then a phone call, and then visited a company that likes my writing. (Echoes of Sally Field’s “They like me. They really like me.” come to mind.) Serendipity happens. The conversation happened as my brain has been considering too many scenarios – that have suddenly crystalized down to a few, like a super-saturated solution coalescing into something sweet. Yet another new era begins. I now have a job as a writer, and a writer about something I know something about, Whidbey Island.

Barack Obama was elected in 2008. This blog started about that same time because my book about personal finance, Dream. Invest. Live., was published then. Coincidence. Two memorable events in my life – and a recollection of a dance that was happening that night. A very dynamic day. I moved to Whidbey Island in 2005, so I was already was familiar with Whidbey. Since then, dozens, possibly hundreds of posts mentioned the island, particularly its community of nice people. So, there’s some history there.

Fast forward to 2017. This blog, which is supposed to concentrate on personal finance, was getting crowded for topics. That, and my decision to become a real estate broker, meant I should have a blog dedicated to Whidbey. Not a surprise; a broker has a lot to say about the area where they work. AboutWhidbey.com was launched. 

Skip ahead to the Spring of 2023 and I was no longer a broker and accepted a job at a non-profit that works to benefit the entire county, Island County. I was a Project Manager at the Economic Development Council for Island County. (Tom Got A Job) It sounds like a government job, but it is independent. Nice. It is also for all of Island County, which suggested that I remove bias from my public activities, so I gave up my Whidbey Island blogs (AboutWhidbey.com, WritingOnWhidbeyIsland.com) because they had the word ‘Whidbey’. 

That’s all normal and positive and progressive. But lately, people familiar with my writing mentioned to me that they noticed I wasn’t writing as much. What happened? I’m flattered and surprised that anyone noticed, but evidently, people do and did. Flattered and surprised.

And then came the call. Would I write about Whidbey Island for someone else? And get paid?! Uh, yeah.

But I have this job, you see…

But I have also not been able to work enough on my book (the sequel to Firewatcher), there’s a screenplay that I’ve been highly and repeatedly encouraged to write, several other projects like teaching classes (self-publishing, social media) and public speaking (see Events), a game about Whidbey, some inventions, and selling my books and my photos. I can’t fit that all in, even without a full-time job.

So, do I have faith in my abilities? With all of that going on surely something can generate more than enough income. That is more likely to happen if I work more on those ‘irons in the fire‘.

But, a full-time job with benefits. Stability. Respectability. Conventionality.

But, shouldn’t I be able to make more from what I’ve made? So far, no; but there are hints of hope.

This dilemma has been nudging me for weeks. I even considered selling my house, moving away from Whidbey Island, and buying a small house somewhere more affordable so I could be debt-free. I’d have to live off Social Security and a small pension, but debt-free is a nice place to be, so I’ve heard.

Ah, but a part-time job bridges full-time stability and solely entrepreneurial.

I’m not going to list all of my reasons and all of the scenarios because that can get dull, especially because I can be good at assessing lots of details and their interactions. Key for me, but boring to anyone else.

You may have noticed that I haven’t mentioned the other company. I’ll do that after papers are signed. Between the two jobs is a leap of faith and trust. 

There’s that leap away from stability and convention. I’m leaving a full-time job with benefits to return to gig work and its uncertainties, but relying on projets that may take months or years to complete. Of course, modern life is overflowing with uncertainties. AI, aliens, climate crisis, an un-uniting of the United States, the self-inflicted implosion of Russia, financial crises, and fill-in-the-blank with whatever is in today’s news. There is no escaping uncertainties – except maybe for an off-the-grid cabin in North Central Washington where the uncertainties are switched for uncertainties about power, water, sanitation, food, et al.

I’ll pass along the details about the new job as web sites, email addresses, and such come in. Besides, that’s one more opportunity to mention the work.

I chronicle this because this blog is about personal finances. Because of federal regulations it is safest for me to use me as an example. I am only one example, but each example has lessons. The work world has changed since I graduated college in 1980. I’ve been fortunate enough to witness the rise of the keyboard, which was also the diminishing of the secretary; the entry of electronic networks (at 300 baud), which meant fewer trips to deliver data; the introduction of the Internet, which became ubiquitous but which also shifted paradigms; the rise of the Gig Economy, and the resurgence of unions; the ability to work from anywhere, and the value of remaining socially connected IRL (and the use of texts, hashtags and TLAs); and the very welcome increase in diversity and awareness and trust in everyone in the workplace, ideally.

That long history also reveals a aspect of my life. I am getting older. Duh. Advice that made sense for a twenty-year old (get out of debt even if it takes years before launching your life), assumes a value of time; but that value that shifts with age. I’m over 60. Hopefully, I have many healthy years, still; but my 65th year will feel more precious than my 25th year. There’s less time to fit everything in between 65 and whenever. There’s also an appreciation of the value of things I was ignorant about forty years ago. Sunsets, conversations, dances, quiet times, times to celebrate have more feeling now, than then. 

I guess I’m part of some new shift. This is a major leap for me, but a small step for the economy and its workers who are similarly redefining work. And I am convinced that because of AI and the rest (even aliens?!) the economy is about to see its own major leap. 

Stay tuned because this story isn’t over.

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Rushed Writing During A SciFi Expo

Posted on July 22, 2023 by Tom Trimbath

It’s late. Gotta write. But it’s late. But I gotta write. But it’s getting later. OK, so I’ll write what I can. This weekend I am a ‘guest of honor’ at a #scifi expo, Galaxy’s Edge Fan Expo. I’m writing this on Saturday night, after the sunset (or the horizon roll). The event isn’t over until Sunday afternoon, but as part of my writing discipline I have an artificial deadline of posting before Saturday midnight. One problem: there’s much more than one thing to write about.

Eagle Pond Ranch

This has been an intense and fascinating event. I may be a guest of honor, but the other guests of honor attend the true guest of honor, the Galaxy’s Edge novels and the community of fans. It is a series that includes several authors, several years, and so many books I didn’t count them. I have been lucky enough to be invited because my first scifi novel could also become a series of books with a series of authors. This event is one way to find collaborators; and joining my series may be less intimidating than trying to contribute to such an established series. So far, at least two of the attendees have talked to me about participating in mine. Cool.

Cool is an interesting term. This is an outdoor expo held in a tent in a field in farmland. No stuffy rooms. Plenty of fresh air. And sea breezes that can chill despite the rest of the continent being under heat advisories. A very natural setting.

It is also an unconventional setting, which seems appropriate for scifi, particularly novels set in places that aren’t courtroom dramas or medical procedurals, or lots of the standard settings. My novel, Firewatcher, is set on a planet being colonized by refugee humans. They don’t have buildings, yet. It makes it easier to describe my book because I can point at a field and mention that this is what they’re starting with, basically nothing. In some ways my characters are also dealing with less than nothing because there isn’t even any organic life. Oops. They have to turn dirt into soil, to turn seeds into plants, to turn veggies and fruits into food, that can then be eaten and eventually delivered by a human digestive tract, making compost and soil, and starting the cycle cycling. Imagine the dismay of the typical renegade colonist who expected to distill something into liquor. Poop has to happen first.

That’s the sort of thing that makes science fiction fun to talk and write about. It is easy to take much of life for granted. But, in writing scifi things like dirt have to be thought about by the writer, and then written about in a way to engages the reader. It can be too much for a solo author to manage. But at the Expo I’ve just spent hours discussing dimensional travel, the development of AI, debating whether developing artificial consciousness is possible or ethical, math and science theories, more such topics – and how or whether to develop those in the story or held as background for only the author to reference.

Besides, meeting in a tent in a field meant long-smoked BBQ flavoring the air.

It is easy to think that a convention or conference or expo is all about selling books and nothing much else, but writing is a business. There are also valuable and unplanned conversations about publishing (traditional versus modern self-publishing), real-world implications about AI’s effect on the industry, marketing (traditional versus social media versus luck), … Never a dull moment. My head wants to write this then take a break because it was tired before I started typing.

I’ll take that break, and then back there tomorrow morning. The site is set up for camping, but this 64-year-old body voted for having a restless night at home instead of a restless night in a nylon bubble. Unfortunately, that’s an hour commute, so tomorrow morning will start very early.

And it is worth it. The pandemic doesn’t get the credit for every interruption. The local writers’ group folded years ago, and the enthusiasm seen today is a sign that it might finally be time to bring it back. Writers? Sure. But also authors, publishers, marketers, and most importantly, fans. Business conferences and conventions have to generate their own enthusiasm, especially for drier topics. Fans define enthusiasm. They bring it by bringing themselves. Sign me up!

Like I mentioned, this event is centered on an existing series. It is definitely an action series and covering tough topics. My book is about humans escaping Earth, but mine includes the hokey-pokey. To say my books are lighter is a #MassiveUnderstatement. I didn’t expect to sell a book, and definitely didn’t expect to be invited to sell my travel, nature, tea books. I’ve sold more books today than I have at any event in years. That’s a nice way to feel welcome.

It’s that time for writers and readers to re-engage. I was surprised and pleased to see enthusiasm for real books, as well as for e-books, audio books, and a willingness to interact on social media – and person-to-person.

The organizers held this event last year, and this year’s success is encouraging them to hold it next year, too – possibly larger and broader. That planning for the future is welcome and energizing.

Sorry if there’s no deep insights to quickly type, but I know they’re percolating through my synapses. (as a pause began as my tired brain detoured back through a replay of the conversations.) I’ll close here with one thought I’m still having fun with. One person described me as droll. As I typed some notes I accidentally typed drool. Droll versus drool has given my brain images to play with. It is totally frivolous, but that detour is also an example of how such events are unpredictable – and sometimes can become straighlines for jokes, and right now, laughter might be the most valuable gift to get. (And thanks for buying my books.)

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QBTS – One Company One Story

Posted on July 14, 2023 by Tom Trimbath

Welcome to another story and another video in my One Company One Story series.
This time, D-Wave Quantum Inc (QBTS).

Here comes the amateur legalese.

I began investing in companies and their stocks in the late 70s, but am Not a certified investment professional.

My style and history of investing is described in Dream. Invest. Live., a book I wrote by request – which came out as the Great Recession (the Second Great Depression) began. Don’t underestimate luck.

My personal finance blog (a blog about my finances) is: https://trimbathcreative.net/

I am Not investment professional. This is Not financial advice. 

For this post particularly I add that I am certainly not a quantum computer expert. I Think I understand the concept, and I know that I don’t understand the process.)

Sometimes trading symbols are easier to write than the company’s official name. That’s true with D-Wave Quantum, Inc. Quantum computing generates enough mind-numbing questions that I don’t want to parse their use of ‘D-Wave’ and how it relates to ‘Quantum’. Instead, I’ll refer to D-Wave Quantum Inc. by its trading symbol, QBTS.

And even QBTS deserves an explanation. Quantum computing is a revolutionary computer architecture and business approach. Our ubiquitous computers are binary and digital. They operate on bits that are either ‘Yes’ or ‘No’, ‘1’ or ‘0’, high-voltage pr low-voltage, ‘And’ or ‘Or’ or equally arcane choices – a very black and white world. Something is either this or that. That’s true for mainframes, laptops, and smartphones. Traditional computers use bits. Quantum computers use quantum bits, q-bits, (QBTS, get it?) devices that trap and use quantum particles and concepts. Quantum computing operates on probabilities and the reality that quantum computers can consider two truths are once; something can temporarily both Yes and No, effectively. There are very few companies building quantum computers. QBTS is one of them.

I am Not a financial professional and I am certainly not a quantum computer expert; but I think I understand quantum computing’s advantage. It is all about probabilities. Something could be black and could be white simultaneously. One sign of a human’s intelligence is their ability to consider two contradictory possibilities before making a decision. Quantum computing allows many possibilities to be considered, and considered in conjunction with probabilistic influences. 

The time difference may not be significant with small problems, but as problems become more complex digital models can be forced to consider all possibilities and their combinations one at a time. Model something complex like the planet’s weather and massive computers with millions, billions, (trillions?) of transistors are required. Quantum computers can resolve the possibilities with much fewer processors (a couple of thousand instead of billions), and the work faster, and do the work without requiring another era of mainframes. 

Quantum computers are necessarily complex in other ways. A traditional computer can have billions of transistors because they’re simpler and relatively robust. A quantum computer can involve quantum effects that can be influenced by local disturbances like vibrations, electrical fields, – things that are difficult to control – and necessary.

D-Wave (QBTS) is a company working in the quantum computing field since 1999, which usually means someone else was working on it before that.

For years, developers of quantum computers cheered when a machine grew from four qubits to eight to twelve to – now, 2,048. Progress.

Ideally, such machines should be much more efficient at modeling messy things like climates and stock markets. Maybe there are biotech options for analyzing drugs and treating diseases. Whether the computers are already successful or not (depending on your criteria), they’ve reached a level of sophistication at the same time that artificial intelligence is reaching a new level. News items containing both may be too much for the news to handle.

As a result, IF QBTS succeeds, THEN it may be overlooked temporarily as investors try to understand such a complicated and esoteric technology and business model. At least within the human part of the investment world, it is understandable why an analyst is more likely to research coffee rather than high-tech. 

Is ignorance keeping QBTS’s stock price down? I only see data from August 2022, despite the company being founded in 1999. That’s a long time starting up to get to be a start up. Alone, quantum computer could become an old overnight success; and, ironically, could possibly fade as nothing more than a technological curiosity. 

Google Finance

Coincidences happen. Welcome artificial intelligence timely entrance. I am sure researchers in both fields are aware of each other. Each involves revolutionary implications and consequences. Each is basically struggling with finding sustainable and profitable business models. Together their capabilities could be mutually amplified in ways we can’t imagine. And ‘can’t imagine’ is one of those things that are scaring some people. 

Unknowns are risks. Rewards are not guaranteed. The adage about risk versus reward is heightened. Companies like D-Wave (QBTS) intrigue me because of the technical challenge, the unknowable potential, and the celebration of decades of work from persistent humans.  

I don’t know what’s going to happen; but, I hope they survive and thrive. I’ll be watching.

The video:

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Community And A SciFi Expo

Posted on July 7, 2023 by Tom Trimbath

Me? Guest of Honor? I’m honored, I guess. Pardon me while my surprise masks my appreciation. A new community forming? Very nice. Writing conferences are happening on Whidbey. Dark Angels just held another of theirs. At the end of July, the Galaxy’s Edge Fan Expo is being held in Oak Harbor. Three days of a relatively new event about SciFi, writing, and generally building community. Thanks to an introduction from fellow writer Don Scoby, the organizers invited me to be a writer in attendance. The surprise hit when I saw their web site and found that I was a Guest of Honor. Cool. Where does this lead?

Here’s the necessary short plug, guiltless self-promotion, and background. In 2022, I finished my first science fiction novel, Firewatcher. It is a story about a bunch of humans escaping Earth because, if an Artificial Intelligence gained self-awareness – or even just looked like it, it would already be too late to leave. An adventure ensues. (Available on Amazon, of course.) As I was editing it I realized that simply adding an ‘s’ to a sentence meant that instead of a ship leaving the planet it could be ships leaving the planet. Add a letter, gain an opportunity for other writers to play into the same series. (SciFi Collaboration) 

An opportunity, but one that generated some interesting conversations, but no new books. 

Hello, Galaxy’s Edge and its fan base. Fans of the series have an outdoor event space, an interest in pulling that community together, and good stuff happens. The event still has that core creation but it seems to be opening itself to inviting fans of scifi, writing, and – well, seeing where the idea can go.

Like.

In the meantime, they recorded and released an interview of the hosts and me talking about the event, my work, and generally discussing writing, Whidbey Island, and sci-fi.

As much as I should spend more time on my guiltless self-promotion, I’m more interested in celebrating their effort at creating community. (OK. Go buy my book. Does that meet the minimum of the self-promotion hurdle?) 

Communities begin small. At some point, two people recognize they have enough in common to see if there are more people who want to join them. Woodstock, Burning Man, parades, didn’t start by hundreds of people simultaneously deciding to do the same thing the same way. I think we need more of those conversations and actions. People interacting with people is better than people simply being spectators. We need participants if we’re going to get things done. 

People meeting people is social. Social media is people meeting people, but filtered through electrons and limited to two-dimensional screens and massive infrastructure. People meeting people comes with body language, hugs and handshakes, nuance, and the realization that the other person is real. It is too easy to diminish electronic friends because they are distant, an excuse some use to be rude and shout rather than remember we are all humans and can appreciate listening, too.

Guest of honor? Sure. But I am not the only one. I just happen to be one who lives here. I’m interested in meeting the other guests of honor, but I am also interested in meeting the other guests, the attendees. I don’t know what they will want to talk about, but I know that this crowd has the potential to deliver insights into artificial intelligence, and then branch out from there. 

Communities can be good for that, gather for one reason, which inspires tangential conversations, which can lead to an infinity of possibilities. Or, at least having a good time.

Artists, especially writers, are known for being introverts. It can be why self-promotion can be so difficult. Being an introvert can be anything from merely being quiet to being as extreme as a hermit. But I enjoy watching some introverts who become engaging and entertaining when in the right crowd, a comfortable crowd of people with similar perspectives. 

Zoom calls claim to be able to do the same thing, but being in a gathering means possibly listening to one conversation while overhearing another and being noticed by someone else. No need to download the app. Resetting the server can mean tapping a new keg instead of flipping some switch on the dusty back of some box.

I plan to be there for the entire event, paid-work allowing (Tom Got A Job), because I am honored to be included; but also because I want to see a new community forming. A previous writing association on Whidbey Island accomplished impression things, until they ran into some mis-fortune. Many of those people and much of that energy is still here. (See, er listen, to WritingOnWhidbeyIsland.com for a few dozen podcast interviews.) Will this event become the seed of a pearl, or an inspiration for another group? 

There’s a bicycle ride called STP, Seattle To Portland. That’s about 200 miles, depending on the route, (206 this year, evidently.) They’re limiting registration to 6,000 riders. That’s down from the 10,000 when I last rode it, and that was probably a bit too many. But, a friend of mine was one of the first to official do the ride. He quit because it was fun at 300 but too crowded at 3,000. I think about those numbers and wonder who were the first two riders to say, hey, what about…

It started with a simple conversation and grew into a small city rolling along on a variety of bicycles, with people in a variety of outfits, riding at different speeds, but mostly following the same path with the same goal. 

The pandemic may not be gone, but we are coming together again, resocializing, reconnecting, and recreating community. Cool. Maybe I’ll see you there – or as part of some other community, maybe for tea, maybe to play with ideas. Dancing, perhaps?

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Semi Annual Exercise Mid 2023

Posted on June 30, 2023 by Tom Trimbath

June 30, halfway through the year, halfway through a year of promises which means promises have less time to be kept. Here’s hoping they don’t all wait until December 31, 2023.

This year has been a tough one for keeping track of “So Much Going On – Quickly“. Yes, the pandemic is supposedly over – unless you’re look at the data. AI was supposed to reach this level closer to 2040. Russia was expected to probably continue to degrade because of corruption and demographics, but that looks to be accelerated by the war. Politicians are finally going to court. We’ll see if any of them go to jail. Sooner is clearer than later because elections are approaching. Many of the things I track have lost patience and have decided to get busy now. Oh yeah, and the climate is changing faster that before.

Why watch? I don’t do much else with my investments. I am a fan of Long Term Buy and Hold. (See my book, Dream. Invest. Live. for details.) I track the news because I am curious, and realize action may be required with some of the current events. I track my stocks because I am invested, but also because small businesses are their own stories, their own reality shows that are really real.

The first half of this year has been encouraging and discouraging.

WNDW and SOLO hit major crises. SolarWindow (WNDW) had a crisis as a major partner made it difficult to report financial data to regulators. Electramecchanica (SOLO) had car recalls, new management, abandoned their main product, just spent a lot of money of a new factory, and are in the midst of assurances that they can survive.

LTCX and GERN both made the kind of progress that can be cheered in biotech: working on FDA application for approvals, which could lead to treatments, which could also lead to healthier people, which could lead to healthier companies, which could lead to profits. Somewhere along there the investment community can step in and decide a premium price is in order.

MVIS, oh, MVIS. It is tempting to simply copy what I wrote at the end of 2022, so I will; then, I’ll add more.

“Oh, MicroVision; will it be yet again another 6-9 months, or 9-18 months, or longer? Well, it hasn’t been any of the previous hoped-for periods for the last twenty years – though there was that time of flirting with hope about a year or so again.”

Supposedly, they plan to make $10M-$12M in the second half of 2023. That may be their biggest year ever, but it doesn’t cover cash burn (I believe). Ah, but someone will extrapolate from ‘very little in 2022’ to ‘$10M-$12M in 2023’ to ‘Wow! OMG! Yay! in 2024!’. Or not.

Math matters. I can only lose 100% on a stock. I can make multiples of 100%. The balance encourages me to look for the optimism in some, and makes it easier to cope with the pessimism inherent with large percentage losses.

I continue to hold. The stocks that have fallen were small investments. Selling them now doesn’t raise much cash. They may be more significant as tax losses. The three that have potentially very good news also continue to have significant risk, so I am reluctant to buy more. Buying more is moot, anyway.

Yes, within the last six months Tom Got A Job, but as one observer observed, the title is great but the pay is less than house cleaners make. My personal finances have the excess income, but taxes, septic repairs, and interest on debt eliminate much of my financial expectations.

Patience. More patience. Maybe invest some more, eventually. In the meantime, income and assets are up, expenses and debt are, too. Working harder is the traditional approach, but portfolios have a power. My portfolio grew as much today as a month’s wages. Despite the news, my house’s value continues to rise. There’s reason for hope that seems more real and less ephemeral.

And, I still buy lottery tickets.

For more details about the stocks, here are links to various discussion boards where you can find my synopses, as well as others’ points of view. For more details about how I do what I do, there’s a book that I wrote at the request of several friends: Dream. Invest. Live. Maybe you can help my personal finances by buying a copy – though the frugal part of me recommends checking one out from a library.

The following links are to various discussion boards I follow. Many of the independent investors who contribute to the discussions provide in-depth analyses that either aren’t available elsewhere, or would cost too much to buy. The other advantage is the diversity of perspectives. Unfortunately, I don’t engage as much as I did before. Some discussions have degraded due to lack of moderators, or overly zealous moderators (oxymoron), or have too many immoderate voices. Some boards are effectively ghost towns, or feel like cavernous empty warehouses. Regardless, here are the sites I continue to visit, even if it is only to lurk and listen. 

I encourage you to tune in, because more voices (as long as they’re mature) make for a better conversation. Maybe I’ll read you there.  

Investor Village (widest range of boards)

LCTX

GERN

MVIS

SOLO

WNDW

Motley Fool (This had the oldest boards, but recently those links no longer work. They have yet to reply to my query about what happened. This is a good example of why it makes sense to keep copies someplace that you control. That is one reason I post to this blog, and also why I post to several web sites because it is harder to lose everything that way. Alas, those first posts for MVIS may be lost.)

Silicon Investor (Relatively older boards, less trafficked, but populated with informed investors)

GERN

MVIS

Reddit (many will cringe, but there’s impressive quality within the impressive quantity of posts and voices)

LCTX

MVIS

SOLO

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So Much Going On – Quickly

Posted on June 24, 2023 by Tom Trimbath

Long ago I wrote a post about changes I was watching for in 2023. 2024 seems too far in the future for consideration. (So Much Going On) There’s already enough going on, so I wrote about several topics. I didn’t expect to mention any of them (except stocks for my June 30 report), but then last night happened. I decided today’s blog would just be an update – and then realized that post was written at the beginning of the month, only a few weeks ago. Yep. 2023 has not been dull, and the pace of change is quickening.

So much for plans.

The topic I expected to concentrate on is my next event. I am the, harumph harumph, the Guest of Honor and Featured Local Writer for a scifi expo happening on Whidbey: Galaxy’s Edge’s 2023 Expo. Honored, pleased, and surprised to be included. Check them out. See what collaborations can create.

Great (self-promotion) topic. Then some Russians decided to redefine Russia. There are definitions being rewritten as a mercenary group is rebelling against an entrenched mainstream establishment. Call it a government if you need a name for it. I’m not going to go into details because things are changing as I type, I suspect.

But there I was, letting YouTube play some background news while I worked on the computer getting ready for an interview, work on my next book, doing some computer maintenance – you know, the way many entrepreneurs spend Friday nights, working while watching ads telling everyone else to go out shopping, dining, then drinking, then having romantic romance. My indulgence was a martini, with real gin! (Splurge, but also because the gin was on sale.)

Believe it or not, there was breaking news that was really news. One of the news sources that is less news and more entertainment showed hints of a civil war. It was probably nothing, but after an hour other reports started coming in. So much for work. It was time to watch history, as I have watched before.

There is more than war.

I expected upheaval in Russia this year, but didn’t expect it this way. I also expected news from one of the stocks, MVIS, which spiked a week or so ago. Instead of bland Puget Sound weather, the meteorologists have stated that Seattle’s climate and weather cycles have changed, but they don’t know to what. Currently, we’re swinging from drought, back to dour, and throw in some storms. AI’s accelerated advance has accelerated, in my opinion. And we still have a bit more than half of a year to go.

All of those things are news; but news can sometimes just be news, a story. Each of those changes do have direct effects on our lives, however. The easiest metric to reference is what happens to economies because economies are easy to measure. That filters down to anyone who relies on money to pay bills.

Personal finance plans are a good idea. Plans are built on assumptions, and if assumptions must be changed, expect plans to change. Watch the news, but what are you going to do about it? Advocacy and volunteering come to mind, but also keep in mind how things affect mortgages, rent, utilities and life.

The coup attempt is happening quickly. Climate change has become obvious. AI advancements are already affecting businesses – and those of us calling Help Desks. Be firm and carry on is a great stalwart strategy, but before and after rarely look the same. In the past, that surprised some; but they could adjust over enough years. News in 2023 is happening quickly enough that being firm and staying on course can turn plans into anachronisms in a month, maybe a week, maybe a day, maybe overnight.

I’d write more but there’s I’m to be interviewed for a show in an hour or so, then there’s probably a bill to pay – if my pay has posted in my bank. After that, there’s a dance to get ready for because – with so much, too much, going on – I like to remember that life and living are the reason for planning and working.

A good time for me to recall my frequently used sign-off: Stay tuned.

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GOEV – One Company One Story

Posted on June 17, 2023 by Tom Trimbath

GOEV – Canoo – One Company One Story

Welcome to another story and another video in my One Company One Story series.
This time, Canoo (GOEV).

Here comes the amateur legalese.

I began investing in companies and their stocks in the late 70s, but am not a certified investment professional.

My style and history of investing is described in Dream. Invest. Live., a book I wrote by request – which came out as the Great Recession (the Second Great Depression) began. Don’t underestimate luck.

I am not investment professional. This is not financial advice. 

Canoo. I don’t know how they pronounce it, but I’m going to say it like the boat, canoe. Apologies if it is otherwise.

Canoo is yet another electric car manufacturer. Each has some way to make themselves unique. There are enough companies building EVs that simply building an electric vehicle isn’t enough. The frugal, practical engineer in me appreciates their approach that seems to target function over form. Whether it works is more important than how it looks. As someone quoted on wikipedia, Canoo makes, “pod-shaped vans it calls ‘lifestyle vehicles’ “. 

Pod-shaped may not be the design goal, but a quick look at their product line shows a tendency to being rounded-off bricks – and that’s a good thing. Bricks are very volume-efficient. Aerodynamically they may not be attractive; but in the real world, sleek silhouettes don’t always benefit as much as their test numbers can suggest. Dirt roughens the surface. A smooth shape can have disturbances at the edges of structural panels. Aerodynamics is important on the interstates between cities; but in traffic and amongst buildings is where a lot of driving happens. Fitting in, as in fitting into parking spaces and loading docks can be more important. Being electric can mean not wasting fuel while waiting to stop-and-go traffic to finally go. 

One characteristic that EVs can have in common is a basic platform. The drive train and batteries can fit into a pan, a platform, on which various chassis can be integrated. That’s harder with gas-powered vehicles that have to incorporate engines, cooling systems, fuel systems, exhaust pipes, and generally a lot of hardware that has to snake around the passenger and cargo compartment. 

Their web site profiles the platform and three vehicle configurations: something like a mini-van, something like a delivery and contractor’s truck, and something like a pick-up. I say like a pick-up because American pick-ups have grown from functional to some pumped-up form. Having owned a pickup and now having a small car, I wonder how big vehicles make sense in crowded spaces, including narrow country roads.

OK. So, they have some innovation in a growing market, and they’re aimed at a market others may pass-over. They even have orders for thousands of vehicles from firms like Walmart. What could go wrong?

They’re a startup, which always includes risk. EVs are still relatively new, which means there are unknowns to get to know. Batteries use materials that may have limited availability. They have competitors, particularly big ones like Ford. Can they establish a niche and become profitable without having to sell out?

Google Finance

The investment market seems uncertain about GOEV. Canoo has a lot of news and milestones on 2023’s calendar. Despite that, the stock is at $0.66 (June 16, 2023) after a spike to over $20 in late 2020. Cash burn happens. That’s the other race startups can have, can the money start coming in before too much has gone out?

I don’t know; but, I hope they survive and thrive. I’ll be watching.

The video:

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MVIS Pops 060923 Edition

Posted on June 9, 2023 by Tom Trimbath

Someone asked a question. Finally the investment community delivered an answer, for a while, maybe, sort of.

“A few months ago someone online asked me if I have any ideas about which stocks will have explosive growth soon.” – A Bit Of My Investing Process (March 2023)

MVIS gave me an excuse to use them as an example of what matters and what is entertaining. Much of stock news is in the entertaining category.

MVIS had a pop and a drop. You decide if it was explosive, something that fizzled out, or whether it this the sound of a fuse being lit and about to launch a new and profitable era for the company (MicroVision).

Oh no! MVIS went down over 12% today.

Ah, but the stock was up almost 30% for the week!

And it is up 182% in a month. A month!

For the last twelve months it isn’t as grand, but 94% beats a lot of alternatives. And, look at the spike at the end. Explosive enough?

But lets keep in mind how volatile things can be. Thanks to a really low price five year ago, the stock is up 440%. Gulp and yay.

But, I’ve held the stock since about 1999. Look at those shares and gulp and cry eep. Down 85%.

Every time I write about MVIS I take this ride. I’ve held the stock long enough that it is old enough to drive, and maybe complete a Masters in something. Surviving this many pops and drops has drained most of my emotions about MVIS, or at least fatigued them. I cheer the pops, but I’m more likely to give it a thumbs up rather than a shout and applause.

The stock goes up and goes down.

I adhere to LTBH, Long Term Buy and Hold. (See my book: Dream. Invest. Live.) A friend described my approach as ‘get rich slowly’. During the Internet Bubble my approach retired me. A perfect storm of bad luck un-retired me. Lately my approach seems to be emphasizing the slow part of the approach. I’m older. Sooner would be better than later.

In the meantime, I know investors who have traded right by skill or luck or both or whatever and are now multi-millionaires. Every strategy has its success stories. Every strategy has its failures, too; but it is harder to hear about them. They don’t hold parties as often.

Investors were partying this week. Someone who bought Friday morning probably isn’t cheering, but imagine the ones who bought Monday, or in May, or last year. As I understand it, any yearly return of more than 15% is doing well, historically.

The folks who bought within the last five years, however, have learned more lessons. Buying prior to April 2021 meant surviving prices falling to $0.15. Hold on and the price shot up to ~$30. That’s a nice return on investment (#MassiveUnderstatement). Corks were popped. But, someone bought at the top. Feel for them as the stock dropped back to about $5. Ouch. MVIS touched $5 about a year ago, but it dropped back to ~$2, again.

That’s a story. That’s also reflected in people’s lives. But, if you hadn’t noticed, notice now that I haven’t mentioned the company’s story.

I’ll steal from my end of year synopsis of the company (and remind myself that I’d due to do that again at the end of the month. Semi Annual Exercise EOY 2022)

“MicroVision is an electronic component designer and manufacturer developing a wide series of applications based on a chip equipped with an oscillating mirror. Shine light on the chip in one direction and it can display an image. Shine it the other way and the chip becomes a sensor. Expand the spectrum and it can send or detect or both send and direct radar images, and probably even more applications.”

Oh yeah, and one version fit a projector inside a smartphone.

The company announces announcements. There are press releases released. They make news for the news. They do not, however, make much money. Oops.

But maybe they’re about to. Hope and optimism prevail regardless of a history of fruitlessly being exercised.

The stock popped on no news, as I define it. News is factual, quantifiable, significant, and hopefully positive. Current hints are about LiDAR for cars and such, vision systems for Microsoft, various display applications, and things hidden behind non-disclosure agreements. Similar hints have been talked about for decades.

Maybe this time is different, again.

Was the pop because someone thought MicroVision would be part of Apple’s new products? Was a car going to be sold with MicroVision parts? Something else? No announcement. No news, by my definition.

A likely influence is the market for shorting the stock. I Will Not try to describe the short market except to say that those investors need to borrow shares to buy them back. (Still a strange, yet old, concept.) In a rare event, there were none. If a brokerage told a short seller that they had to buy back the shares, they had to go to the open market, which drives up the price, which makes it more expensive to buy back the shares, which cycles until there is some resolution. (As I understand it) Hence, a pop.

Stock market news relies on guessing at motivations. An investor doesn’t have to say why they bought or sold. We guess, but never really know, unless it is yourself.

Look back at that 2021 spike for an example similar to what just happened, and is possibly continuing to happen with MVIS. In 2021 there was speculation about product launches and buyouts. MVIS is usually heavily shorted, but that situation was amplified by the Meme Stock bubble. The two situations fed off each other – then popped. The product launches didn’t launch much. There’s a good chance that the bubble drove MVIS’ price so high that it became too expensive for a buyout. And, there had been solidarity within the anti-short crowd, but that solidarity is hard to maintain.

About two years later, MVIS returns to $2 and a high-spot on the shorts board. And no new news.

You are intrepid (or bored) to make it this far into this blog. Here’s the beginning of the summary.

The charts are entertaining. The emotional ride is real because the financial ride is real.

I am investing in MicroVision. I bought MVIS because if the company succeeds I can succeed. I’d rather try to understand a company than the stock market, particularly the shorts part. I invest because I think the company can succeed significantly, can replace an archaic industry with a positive solution, and because I can benefit from my research and patience.

I’ve been wrong so far, but that’s why I own a few other stocks. I’d prefer to own several, but I’ll return to those days – I hope. I don’t expect them all to succeed, or for them all to fail. Stay tuned.

Sadly, patience has a price. The stock has been split and diluted enough that what was originally more than enough may be barely sufficient, now. My shares are less than a hundredth as valuable as those original shares. While some will blame management, I blame myself. I could’ve sold then, or not even bought until now. By one measure, I’ll break even if the stock rises to ~$12. That’s why I didn’t sell as it danced with $30. Somewhere between $30 and $300 is re-retirement money. MVIS pops to $8? No reason for me to move.

Small stocks can pop on no news, and they can pop even more of good, real, news. Guessing the timing is just a guess. One way to be there at the right time is to own the stock already. I’m ready.

I’ll join in the entertainment as the price does what the price does. It’s the best proxy for real news. But I’l also base my decisions about buying and selling on less emotional conclusions. I researched. I bought. I bought more. I’m holding. I’m waiting. I’m ready.

And waiting.

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