Rushed Writing During A SciFi Expo

It’s late. Gotta write. But it’s late. But I gotta write. But it’s getting later. OK, so I’ll write what I can. This weekend I am a ‘guest of honor’ at a #scifi expo, Galaxy’s Edge Fan Expo. I’m writing this on Saturday night, after the sunset (or the horizon roll). The event isn’t over until Sunday afternoon, but as part of my writing discipline I have an artificial deadline of posting before Saturday midnight. One problem: there’s much more than one thing to write about.

This has been an intense and fascinating event. I may be a guest of honor, but the other guests of honor attend the true guest of honor, the Galaxy’s Edge novels and the community of fans. It is a series that includes several authors, several years, and so many books I didn’t count them. I have been lucky enough to be invited because my first scifi novel could also become a series of books with a series of authors. This event is one way to find collaborators; and joining my series may be less intimidating than trying to contribute to such an established series. So far, at least two of the attendees have talked to me about participating in mine. Cool.

Cool is an interesting term. This is an outdoor expo held in a tent in a field in farmland. No stuffy rooms. Plenty of fresh air. And sea breezes that can chill despite the rest of the continent being under heat advisories. A very natural setting.

It is also an unconventional setting, which seems appropriate for scifi, particularly novels set in places that aren’t courtroom dramas or medical procedurals, or lots of the standard settings. My novel, Firewatcher, is set on a planet being colonized by refugee humans. They don’t have buildings, yet. It makes it easier to describe my book because I can point at a field and mention that this is what they’re starting with, basically nothing. In some ways my characters are also dealing with less than nothing because there isn’t even any organic life. Oops. They have to turn dirt into soil, to turn seeds into plants, to turn veggies and fruits into food, that can then be eaten and eventually delivered by a human digestive tract, making compost and soil, and starting the cycle cycling. Imagine the dismay of the typical renegade colonist who expected to distill something into liquor. Poop has to happen first.

That’s the sort of thing that makes science fiction fun to talk and write about. It is easy to take much of life for granted. But, in writing scifi things like dirt have to be thought about by the writer, and then written about in a way to engages the reader. It can be too much for a solo author to manage. But at the Expo I’ve just spent hours discussing dimensional travel, the development of AI, debating whether developing artificial consciousness is possible or ethical, math and science theories, more such topics – and how or whether to develop those in the story or held as background for only the author to reference.

Besides, meeting in a tent in a field meant long-smoked BBQ flavoring the air.

It is easy to think that a convention or conference or expo is all about selling books and nothing much else, but writing is a business. There are also valuable and unplanned conversations about publishing (traditional versus modern self-publishing), real-world implications about AI’s effect on the industry, marketing (traditional versus social media versus luck), … Never a dull moment. My head wants to write this then take a break because it was tired before I started typing.

I’ll take that break, and then back there tomorrow morning. The site is set up for camping, but this 64-year-old body voted for having a restless night at home instead of a restless night in a nylon bubble. Unfortunately, that’s an hour commute, so tomorrow morning will start very early.

And it is worth it. The pandemic doesn’t get the credit for every interruption. The local writers’ group folded years ago, and the enthusiasm seen today is a sign that it might finally be time to bring it back. Writers? Sure. But also authors, publishers, marketers, and most importantly, fans. Business conferences and conventions have to generate their own enthusiasm, especially for drier topics. Fans define enthusiasm. They bring it by bringing themselves. Sign me up!

Like I mentioned, this event is centered on an existing series. It is definitely an action series and covering tough topics. My book is about humans escaping Earth, but mine includes the hokey-pokey. To say my books are lighter is a #MassiveUnderstatement. I didn’t expect to sell a book, and definitely didn’t expect to be invited to sell my travel, nature, tea books. I’ve sold more books today than I have at any event in years. That’s a nice way to feel welcome.

It’s that time for writers and readers to re-engage. I was surprised and pleased to see enthusiasm for real books, as well as for e-books, audio books, and a willingness to interact on social media – and person-to-person.

The organizers held this event last year, and this year’s success is encouraging them to hold it next year, too – possibly larger and broader. That planning for the future is welcome and energizing.

Sorry if there’s no deep insights to quickly type, but I know they’re percolating through my synapses. (as a pause began as my tired brain detoured back through a replay of the conversations.) I’ll close here with one thought I’m still having fun with. One person described me as droll. As I typed some notes I accidentally typed drool. Droll versus drool has given my brain images to play with. It is totally frivolous, but that detour is also an example of how such events are unpredictable – and sometimes can become straighlines for jokes, and right now, laughter might be the most valuable gift to get. (And thanks for buying my books.)

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QBTS – One Company One Story

Welcome to another story and another video in my One Company One Story series.
This time, D-Wave Quantum Inc (QBTS).


Here comes the amateur legalese.

I began investing in companies and their stocks in the late 70s, but am Not a certified investment professional.

My style and history of investing is described in Dream. Invest. Live., a book I wrote by request – which came out as the Great Recession (the Second Great Depression) began. Don’t underestimate luck.

My personal finance blog (a blog about my finances) is: https://trimbathcreative.net/

I am Not investment professional. This is Not financial advice. 


For this post particularly I add that I am certainly not a quantum computer expert. I Think I understand the concept, and I know that I don’t understand the process.)

Sometimes trading symbols are easier to write than the company’s official name. That’s true with D-Wave Quantum, Inc. Quantum computing generates enough mind-numbing questions that I don’t want to parse their use of ‘D-Wave’ and how it relates to ‘Quantum’. Instead, I’ll refer to D-Wave Quantum Inc. by its trading symbol, QBTS.

And even QBTS deserves an explanation. Quantum computing is a revolutionary computer architecture and business approach. Our ubiquitous computers are binary and digital. They operate on bits that are either ‘Yes’ or ‘No’, ‘1’ or ‘0’, high-voltage pr low-voltage, ‘And’ or ‘Or’ or equally arcane choices – a very black and white world. Something is either this or that. That’s true for mainframes, laptops, and smartphones. Traditional computers use bits. Quantum computers use quantum bits, q-bits, (QBTS, get it?) devices that trap and use quantum particles and concepts. Quantum computing operates on probabilities and the reality that quantum computers can consider two truths are once; something can temporarily both Yes and No, effectively. There are very few companies building quantum computers. QBTS is one of them.

I am Not a financial professional and I am certainly not a quantum computer expert; but I think I understand quantum computing’s advantage. It is all about probabilities. Something could be black and could be white simultaneously. One sign of a human’s intelligence is their ability to consider two contradictory possibilities before making a decision. Quantum computing allows many possibilities to be considered, and considered in conjunction with probabilistic influences. 

The time difference may not be significant with small problems, but as problems become more complex digital models can be forced to consider all possibilities and their combinations one at a time. Model something complex like the planet’s weather and massive computers with millions, billions, (trillions?) of transistors are required. Quantum computers can resolve the possibilities with much fewer processors (a couple of thousand instead of billions), and the work faster, and do the work without requiring another era of mainframes. 

Quantum computers are necessarily complex in other ways. A traditional computer can have billions of transistors because they’re simpler and relatively robust. A quantum computer can involve quantum effects that can be influenced by local disturbances like vibrations, electrical fields, – things that are difficult to control – and necessary.

D-Wave (QBTS) is a company working in the quantum computing field since 1999, which usually means someone else was working on it before that.

For years, developers of quantum computers cheered when a machine grew from four qubits to eight to twelve to – now, 2,048. Progress.

Ideally, such machines should be much more efficient at modeling messy things like climates and stock markets. Maybe there are biotech options for analyzing drugs and treating diseases. Whether the computers are already successful or not (depending on your criteria), they’ve reached a level of sophistication at the same time that artificial intelligence is reaching a new level. News items containing both may be too much for the news to handle.

As a result, IF QBTS succeeds, THEN it may be overlooked temporarily as investors try to understand such a complicated and esoteric technology and business model. At least within the human part of the investment world, it is understandable why an analyst is more likely to research coffee rather than high-tech. 

Is ignorance keeping QBTS’s stock price down? I only see data from August 2022, despite the company being founded in 1999. That’s a long time starting up to get to be a start up. Alone, quantum computer could become an old overnight success; and, ironically, could possibly fade as nothing more than a technological curiosity. 

Google Finance

Coincidences happen. Welcome artificial intelligence timely entrance. I am sure researchers in both fields are aware of each other. Each involves revolutionary implications and consequences. Each is basically struggling with finding sustainable and profitable business models. Together their capabilities could be mutually amplified in ways we can’t imagine. And ‘can’t imagine’ is one of those things that are scaring some people. 

Unknowns are risks. Rewards are not guaranteed. The adage about risk versus reward is heightened. Companies like D-Wave (QBTS) intrigue me because of the technical challenge, the unknowable potential, and the celebration of decades of work from persistent humans.  

I don’t know what’s going to happen; but, I hope they survive and thrive. I’ll be watching.

The video:

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Community And A SciFi Expo

Me? Guest of Honor? I’m honored, I guess. Pardon me while my surprise masks my appreciation. A new community forming? Very nice. Writing conferences are happening on Whidbey. Dark Angels just held another of theirs. At the end of July, the Galaxy’s Edge Fan Expo is being held in Oak Harbor. Three days of a relatively new event about SciFi, writing, and generally building community. Thanks to an introduction from fellow writer Don Scoby, the organizers invited me to be a writer in attendance. The surprise hit when I saw their web site and found that I was a Guest of Honor. Cool. Where does this lead?

Here’s the necessary short plug, guiltless self-promotion, and background. In 2022, I finished my first science fiction novel, Firewatcher. It is a story about a bunch of humans escaping Earth because, if an Artificial Intelligence gained self-awareness – or even just looked like it, it would already be too late to leave. An adventure ensues. (Available on Amazon, of course.) As I was editing it I realized that simply adding an ‘s’ to a sentence meant that instead of a ship leaving the planet it could be ships leaving the planet. Add a letter, gain an opportunity for other writers to play into the same series. (SciFi Collaboration

An opportunity, but one that generated some interesting conversations, but no new books. 

Hello, Galaxy’s Edge and its fan base. Fans of the series have an outdoor event space, an interest in pulling that community together, and good stuff happens. The event still has that core creation but it seems to be opening itself to inviting fans of scifi, writing, and – well, seeing where the idea can go.

Like.

In the meantime, they recorded and released an interview of the hosts and me talking about the event, my work, and generally discussing writing, Whidbey Island, and sci-fi.

As much as I should spend more time on my guiltless self-promotion, I’m more interested in celebrating their effort at creating community. (OK. Go buy my book. Does that meet the minimum of the self-promotion hurdle?) 

Communities begin small. At some point, two people recognize they have enough in common to see if there are more people who want to join them. Woodstock, Burning Man, parades, didn’t start by hundreds of people simultaneously deciding to do the same thing the same way. I think we need more of those conversations and actions. People interacting with people is better than people simply being spectators. We need participants if we’re going to get things done. 

People meeting people is social. Social media is people meeting people, but filtered through electrons and limited to two-dimensional screens and massive infrastructure. People meeting people comes with body language, hugs and handshakes, nuance, and the realization that the other person is real. It is too easy to diminish electronic friends because they are distant, an excuse some use to be rude and shout rather than remember we are all humans and can appreciate listening, too.

Guest of honor? Sure. But I am not the only one. I just happen to be one who lives here. I’m interested in meeting the other guests of honor, but I am also interested in meeting the other guests, the attendees. I don’t know what they will want to talk about, but I know that this crowd has the potential to deliver insights into artificial intelligence, and then branch out from there. 

Communities can be good for that, gather for one reason, which inspires tangential conversations, which can lead to an infinity of possibilities. Or, at least having a good time.

Artists, especially writers, are known for being introverts. It can be why self-promotion can be so difficult. Being an introvert can be anything from merely being quiet to being as extreme as a hermit. But I enjoy watching some introverts who become engaging and entertaining when in the right crowd, a comfortable crowd of people with similar perspectives. 

Zoom calls claim to be able to do the same thing, but being in a gathering means possibly listening to one conversation while overhearing another and being noticed by someone else. No need to download the app. Resetting the server can mean tapping a new keg instead of flipping some switch on the dusty back of some box.

I plan to be there for the entire event, paid-work allowing (Tom Got A Job), because I am honored to be included; but also because I want to see a new community forming. A previous writing association on Whidbey Island accomplished impression things, until they ran into some mis-fortune. Many of those people and much of that energy is still here. (See, er listen, to WritingOnWhidbeyIsland.com for a few dozen podcast interviews.) Will this event become the seed of a pearl, or an inspiration for another group? 

There’s a bicycle ride called STP, Seattle To Portland. That’s about 200 miles, depending on the route, (206 this year, evidently.) They’re limiting registration to 6,000 riders. That’s down from the 10,000 when I last rode it, and that was probably a bit too many. But, a friend of mine was one of the first to official do the ride. He quit because it was fun at 300 but too crowded at 3,000. I think about those numbers and wonder who were the first two riders to say, hey, what about…

It started with a simple conversation and grew into a small city rolling along on a variety of bicycles, with people in a variety of outfits, riding at different speeds, but mostly following the same path with the same goal. 

The pandemic may not be gone, but we are coming together again, resocializing, reconnecting, and recreating community. Cool. Maybe I’ll see you there – or as part of some other community, maybe for tea, maybe to play with ideas. Dancing, perhaps?

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Semi Annual Exercise Mid 2023

June 30, halfway through the year, halfway through a year of promises which means promises have less time to be kept. Here’s hoping they don’t all wait until December 31, 2023.

This year has been a tough one for keeping track of “So Much Going On – Quickly“. Yes, the pandemic is supposedly over – unless you’re look at the data. AI was supposed to reach this level closer to 2040. Russia was expected to probably continue to degrade because of corruption and demographics, but that looks to be accelerated by the war. Politicians are finally going to court. We’ll see if any of them go to jail. Sooner is clearer than later because elections are approaching. Many of the things I track have lost patience and have decided to get busy now. Oh yeah, and the climate is changing faster that before.

Why watch? I don’t do much else with my investments. I am a fan of Long Term Buy and Hold. (See my book, Dream. Invest. Live. for details.) I track the news because I am curious, and realize action may be required with some of the current events. I track my stocks because I am invested, but also because small businesses are their own stories, their own reality shows that are really real.

The first half of this year has been encouraging and discouraging.

WNDW and SOLO hit major crises. SolarWindow (WNDW) had a crisis as a major partner made it difficult to report financial data to regulators. Electramecchanica (SOLO) had car recalls, new management, abandoned their main product, just spent a lot of money of a new factory, and are in the midst of assurances that they can survive.

LTCX and GERN both made the kind of progress that can be cheered in biotech: working on FDA application for approvals, which could lead to treatments, which could also lead to healthier people, which could lead to healthier companies, which could lead to profits. Somewhere along there the investment community can step in and decide a premium price is in order.

MVIS, oh, MVIS. It is tempting to simply copy what I wrote at the end of 2022, so I will; then, I’ll add more.

“Oh, MicroVision; will it be yet again another 6-9 months, or 9-18 months, or longer? Well, it hasn’t been any of the previous hoped-for periods for the last twenty years – though there was that time of flirting with hope about a year or so again.”

Supposedly, they plan to make $10M-$12M in the second half of 2023. That may be their biggest year ever, but it doesn’t cover cash burn (I believe). Ah, but someone will extrapolate from ‘very little in 2022’ to ‘$10M-$12M in 2023’ to ‘Wow! OMG! Yay! in 2024!’. Or not.

Math matters. I can only lose 100% on a stock. I can make multiples of 100%. The balance encourages me to look for the optimism in some, and makes it easier to cope with the pessimism inherent with large percentage losses.

I continue to hold. The stocks that have fallen were small investments. Selling them now doesn’t raise much cash. They may be more significant as tax losses. The three that have potentially very good news also continue to have significant risk, so I am reluctant to buy more. Buying more is moot, anyway.

Yes, within the last six months Tom Got A Job, but as one observer observed, the title is great but the pay is less than house cleaners make. My personal finances have the excess income, but taxes, septic repairs, and interest on debt eliminate much of my financial expectations.

Patience. More patience. Maybe invest some more, eventually. In the meantime, income and assets are up, expenses and debt are, too. Working harder is the traditional approach, but portfolios have a power. My portfolio grew as much today as a month’s wages. Despite the news, my house’s value continues to rise. There’s reason for hope that seems more real and less ephemeral.

And, I still buy lottery tickets.


For more details about the stocks, here are links to various discussion boards where you can find my synopses, as well as others’ points of view. For more details about how I do what I do, there’s a book that I wrote at the request of several friends: Dream. Invest. Live. Maybe you can help my personal finances by buying a copy – though the frugal part of me recommends checking one out from a library.

The following links are to various discussion boards I follow. Many of the independent investors who contribute to the discussions provide in-depth analyses that either aren’t available elsewhere, or would cost too much to buy. The other advantage is the diversity of perspectives. Unfortunately, I don’t engage as much as I did before. Some discussions have degraded due to lack of moderators, or overly zealous moderators (oxymoron), or have too many immoderate voices. Some boards are effectively ghost towns, or feel like cavernous empty warehouses. Regardless, here are the sites I continue to visit, even if it is only to lurk and listen. 

I encourage you to tune in, because more voices (as long as they’re mature) make for a better conversation. Maybe I’ll read you there.  

Investor Village (widest range of boards)

LCTX

GERN

MVIS

SOLO

WNDW

Motley Fool (This had the oldest boards, but recently those links no longer work. They have yet to reply to my query about what happened. This is a good example of why it makes sense to keep copies someplace that you control. That is one reason I post to this blog, and also why I post to several web sites because it is harder to lose everything that way. Alas, those first posts for MVIS may be lost.)

Silicon Investor (Relatively older boards, less trafficked, but populated with informed investors)

GERN

MVIS

Reddit (many will cringe, but there’s impressive quality within the impressive quantity of posts and voices)

LCTX

MVIS

SOLO

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So Much Going On – Quickly

Long ago I wrote a post about changes I was watching for in 2023. 2024 seems too far in the future for consideration. (So Much Going On) There’s already enough going on, so I wrote about several topics. I didn’t expect to mention any of them (except stocks for my June 30 report), but then last night happened. I decided today’s blog would just be an update – and then realized that post was written at the beginning of the month, only a few weeks ago. Yep. 2023 has not been dull, and the pace of change is quickening.

So much for plans.

The topic I expected to concentrate on is my next event. I am the, harumph harumph, the Guest of Honor and Featured Local Writer for a scifi expo happening on Whidbey: Galaxy’s Edge’s 2023 Expo. Honored, pleased, and surprised to be included. Check them out. See what collaborations can create.

Great (self-promotion) topic. Then some Russians decided to redefine Russia. There are definitions being rewritten as a mercenary group is rebelling against an entrenched mainstream establishment. Call it a government if you need a name for it. I’m not going to go into details because things are changing as I type, I suspect.

But there I was, letting YouTube play some background news while I worked on the computer getting ready for an interview, work on my next book, doing some computer maintenance – you know, the way many entrepreneurs spend Friday nights, working while watching ads telling everyone else to go out shopping, dining, then drinking, then having romantic romance. My indulgence was a martini, with real gin! (Splurge, but also because the gin was on sale.)

Believe it or not, there was breaking news that was really news. One of the news sources that is less news and more entertainment showed hints of a civil war. It was probably nothing, but after an hour other reports started coming in. So much for work. It was time to watch history, as I have watched before.

There is more than war.

I expected upheaval in Russia this year, but didn’t expect it this way. I also expected news from one of the stocks, MVIS, which spiked a week or so ago. Instead of bland Puget Sound weather, the meteorologists have stated that Seattle’s climate and weather cycles have changed, but they don’t know to what. Currently, we’re swinging from drought, back to dour, and throw in some storms. AI’s accelerated advance has accelerated, in my opinion. And we still have a bit more than half of a year to go.

All of those things are news; but news can sometimes just be news, a story. Each of those changes do have direct effects on our lives, however. The easiest metric to reference is what happens to economies because economies are easy to measure. That filters down to anyone who relies on money to pay bills.

Personal finance plans are a good idea. Plans are built on assumptions, and if assumptions must be changed, expect plans to change. Watch the news, but what are you going to do about it? Advocacy and volunteering come to mind, but also keep in mind how things affect mortgages, rent, utilities and life.

The coup attempt is happening quickly. Climate change has become obvious. AI advancements are already affecting businesses – and those of us calling Help Desks. Be firm and carry on is a great stalwart strategy, but before and after rarely look the same. In the past, that surprised some; but they could adjust over enough years. News in 2023 is happening quickly enough that being firm and staying on course can turn plans into anachronisms in a month, maybe a week, maybe a day, maybe overnight.

I’d write more but there’s I’m to be interviewed for a show in an hour or so, then there’s probably a bill to pay – if my pay has posted in my bank. After that, there’s a dance to get ready for because – with so much, too much, going on – I like to remember that life and living are the reason for planning and working.

A good time for me to recall my frequently used sign-off: Stay tuned.

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GOEV – One Company One Story

GOEV – Canoo – One Company One Story

Welcome to another story and another video in my One Company One Story series.
This time, Canoo (GOEV).

Here comes the amateur legalese.

I began investing in companies and their stocks in the late 70s, but am not a certified investment professional.

My style and history of investing is described in Dream. Invest. Live., a book I wrote by request – which came out as the Great Recession (the Second Great Depression) began. Don’t underestimate luck.

I am not investment professional. This is not financial advice. 


Canoo. I don’t know how they pronounce it, but I’m going to say it like the boat, canoe. Apologies if it is otherwise.

Canoo is yet another electric car manufacturer. Each has some way to make themselves unique. There are enough companies building EVs that simply building an electric vehicle isn’t enough. The frugal, practical engineer in me appreciates their approach that seems to target function over form. Whether it works is more important than how it looks. As someone quoted on wikipedia, Canoo makes, “pod-shaped vans it calls ‘lifestyle vehicles’ “. 

Pod-shaped may not be the design goal, but a quick look at their product line shows a tendency to being rounded-off bricks – and that’s a good thing. Bricks are very volume-efficient. Aerodynamically they may not be attractive; but in the real world, sleek silhouettes don’t always benefit as much as their test numbers can suggest. Dirt roughens the surface. A smooth shape can have disturbances at the edges of structural panels. Aerodynamics is important on the interstates between cities; but in traffic and amongst buildings is where a lot of driving happens. Fitting in, as in fitting into parking spaces and loading docks can be more important. Being electric can mean not wasting fuel while waiting to stop-and-go traffic to finally go. 

One characteristic that EVs can have in common is a basic platform. The drive train and batteries can fit into a pan, a platform, on which various chassis can be integrated. That’s harder with gas-powered vehicles that have to incorporate engines, cooling systems, fuel systems, exhaust pipes, and generally a lot of hardware that has to snake around the passenger and cargo compartment. 

Their web site profiles the platform and three vehicle configurations: something like a mini-van, something like a delivery and contractor’s truck, and something like a pick-up. I say like a pick-up because American pick-ups have grown from functional to some pumped-up form. Having owned a pickup and now having a small car, I wonder how big vehicles make sense in crowded spaces, including narrow country roads.

OK. So, they have some innovation in a growing market, and they’re aimed at a market others may pass-over. They even have orders for thousands of vehicles from firms like Walmart. What could go wrong?

They’re a startup, which always includes risk. EVs are still relatively new, which means there are unknowns to get to know. Batteries use materials that may have limited availability. They have competitors, particularly big ones like Ford. Can they establish a niche and become profitable without having to sell out?

Google Finance

The investment market seems uncertain about GOEV. Canoo has a lot of news and milestones on 2023’s calendar. Despite that, the stock is at $0.66 (June 16, 2023) after a spike to over $20 in late 2020. Cash burn happens. That’s the other race startups can have, can the money start coming in before too much has gone out?

I don’t know; but, I hope they survive and thrive. I’ll be watching.

The video:

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MVIS Pops 060923 Edition

Someone asked a question. Finally the investment community delivered an answer, for a while, maybe, sort of.

“A few months ago someone online asked me if I have any ideas about which stocks will have explosive growth soon.” – A Bit Of My Investing Process (March 2023)

MVIS gave me an excuse to use them as an example of what matters and what is entertaining. Much of stock news is in the entertaining category.

MVIS had a pop and a drop. You decide if it was explosive, something that fizzled out, or whether it this the sound of a fuse being lit and about to launch a new and profitable era for the company (MicroVision).

Oh no! MVIS went down over 12% today.

Ah, but the stock was up almost 30% for the week!

And it is up 182% in a month. A month!

For the last twelve months it isn’t as grand, but 94% beats a lot of alternatives. And, look at the spike at the end. Explosive enough?

But lets keep in mind how volatile things can be. Thanks to a really low price five year ago, the stock is up 440%. Gulp and yay.

But, I’ve held the stock since about 1999. Look at those shares and gulp and cry eep. Down 85%.

Every time I write about MVIS I take this ride. I’ve held the stock long enough that it is old enough to drive, and maybe complete a Masters in something. Surviving this many pops and drops has drained most of my emotions about MVIS, or at least fatigued them. I cheer the pops, but I’m more likely to give it a thumbs up rather than a shout and applause.

The stock goes up and goes down.

I adhere to LTBH, Long Term Buy and Hold. (See my book: Dream. Invest. Live.) A friend described my approach as ‘get rich slowly’. During the Internet Bubble my approach retired me. A perfect storm of bad luck un-retired me. Lately my approach seems to be emphasizing the slow part of the approach. I’m older. Sooner would be better than later.

In the meantime, I know investors who have traded right by skill or luck or both or whatever and are now multi-millionaires. Every strategy has its success stories. Every strategy has its failures, too; but it is harder to hear about them. They don’t hold parties as often.

Investors were partying this week. Someone who bought Friday morning probably isn’t cheering, but imagine the ones who bought Monday, or in May, or last year. As I understand it, any yearly return of more than 15% is doing well, historically.

The folks who bought within the last five years, however, have learned more lessons. Buying prior to April 2021 meant surviving prices falling to $0.15. Hold on and the price shot up to ~$30. That’s a nice return on investment (#MassiveUnderstatement). Corks were popped. But, someone bought at the top. Feel for them as the stock dropped back to about $5. Ouch. MVIS touched $5 about a year ago, but it dropped back to ~$2, again.

That’s a story. That’s also reflected in people’s lives. But, if you hadn’t noticed, notice now that I haven’t mentioned the company’s story.

I’ll steal from my end of year synopsis of the company (and remind myself that I’d due to do that again at the end of the month. Semi Annual Exercise EOY 2022)

“MicroVision is an electronic component designer and manufacturer developing a wide series of applications based on a chip equipped with an oscillating mirror. Shine light on the chip in one direction and it can display an image. Shine it the other way and the chip becomes a sensor. Expand the spectrum and it can send or detect or both send and direct radar images, and probably even more applications.”

Oh yeah, and one version fit a projector inside a smartphone.

The company announces announcements. There are press releases released. They make news for the news. They do not, however, make much money. Oops.

But maybe they’re about to. Hope and optimism prevail regardless of a history of fruitlessly being exercised.

The stock popped on no news, as I define it. News is factual, quantifiable, significant, and hopefully positive. Current hints are about LiDAR for cars and such, vision systems for Microsoft, various display applications, and things hidden behind non-disclosure agreements. Similar hints have been talked about for decades.

Maybe this time is different, again.

Was the pop because someone thought MicroVision would be part of Apple’s new products? Was a car going to be sold with MicroVision parts? Something else? No announcement. No news, by my definition.

A likely influence is the market for shorting the stock. I Will Not try to describe the short market except to say that those investors need to borrow shares to buy them back. (Still a strange, yet old, concept.) In a rare event, there were none. If a brokerage told a short seller that they had to buy back the shares, they had to go to the open market, which drives up the price, which makes it more expensive to buy back the shares, which cycles until there is some resolution. (As I understand it) Hence, a pop.

Stock market news relies on guessing at motivations. An investor doesn’t have to say why they bought or sold. We guess, but never really know, unless it is yourself.

Look back at that 2021 spike for an example similar to what just happened, and is possibly continuing to happen with MVIS. In 2021 there was speculation about product launches and buyouts. MVIS is usually heavily shorted, but that situation was amplified by the Meme Stock bubble. The two situations fed off each other – then popped. The product launches didn’t launch much. There’s a good chance that the bubble drove MVIS’ price so high that it became too expensive for a buyout. And, there had been solidarity within the anti-short crowd, but that solidarity is hard to maintain.

About two years later, MVIS returns to $2 and a high-spot on the shorts board. And no new news.

You are intrepid (or bored) to make it this far into this blog. Here’s the beginning of the summary.

The charts are entertaining. The emotional ride is real because the financial ride is real.

I am investing in MicroVision. I bought MVIS because if the company succeeds I can succeed. I’d rather try to understand a company than the stock market, particularly the shorts part. I invest because I think the company can succeed significantly, can replace an archaic industry with a positive solution, and because I can benefit from my research and patience.

I’ve been wrong so far, but that’s why I own a few other stocks. I’d prefer to own several, but I’ll return to those days – I hope. I don’t expect them all to succeed, or for them all to fail. Stay tuned.

Sadly, patience has a price. The stock has been split and diluted enough that what was originally more than enough may be barely sufficient, now. My shares are less than a hundredth as valuable as those original shares. While some will blame management, I blame myself. I could’ve sold then, or not even bought until now. By one measure, I’ll break even if the stock rises to ~$12. That’s why I didn’t sell as it danced with $30. Somewhere between $30 and $300 is re-retirement money. MVIS pops to $8? No reason for me to move.

Small stocks can pop on no news, and they can pop even more of good, real, news. Guessing the timing is just a guess. One way to be there at the right time is to own the stock already. I’m ready.

I’ll join in the entertainment as the price does what the price does. It’s the best proxy for real news. But I’l also base my decisions about buying and selling on less emotional conclusions. I researched. I bought. I bought more. I’m holding. I’m waiting. I’m ready.

And waiting.

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So Much Going On

What to write about? That’s a frequent question. I enjoy writing, or at least seem to have some skill at it. Usually, an idea comes through my mind and I just write. It is nice when someone reads it and finds it helpful, a double bonus, but one lesson for a writer is that the reader may not be readily available, yet. My head aches with ideas, and possibly bad ergonomics. Many of the ideas are not resolved, hence no dedicated post; so, I’ll list them and see if any resonate with anyone.


Russia and Ukraine

Two nations are war, one of which will be relieved to survive. Uh. Which one is that? Russia’s goals have cost so much that the country’s long-term viability is uncertain. Will it go out with a bag, or limp along with a whiny whimper, or somehow claim success despite losing tens of thousands of lives, credibility, and lots of hardware? If Ukraine manages to regain Crimea and all the occupied territories, their success will be tempered by the years and billions that will be required to rebuild the country. Getting refugees to return will be difficult until there are new buildings and infrastructure.

But that’s not all, as the news mentioned China/Taiwan, North Korea/South Korea, and fresh violence in several countries I’d have to look up even if I recognize their name. How much instability can we accommodate? How many of the conflicts will amplify into greater wars? Large countries are obviously worth watching; but small countries can hold key, rare materials that enable the world’s technology. Disruption reaches beyond borders.

AI

Artificial Intelligence is advancing at a pace similar to the projections for a Digital Singularity. Oops and uh oh. Or. Finally, something with intelligence, regardless of the source or its motivations.

News outlets thought AI was fun to report about – but it seems that they have become aware that their jobs may be some of the first to be threatened. AI will continue to advance. It may not reach the level of consciousness, but that may not matter. Jobs are simultaneously being given to AIs and created for humans, not necessarily the unemployed being re-employed.

AI doesn’t have to reach consciousness. Already there are bots having relationships with people. The little-discussed sibling is AE, Artificial Emotion. Humans are experiencing loneliness to such a level that the health consequences are equivalent to smoking 15 cigarettes a day. AEs may not help you get your work done; but they may help at the end of a stressful day. And, of course, emotional support can extend to emotional connections – no human required. They may also be better at convincing you to do something, anything.

IF AI does reach consciousness then we may not be able to keep up as change will accelerate over today’s already accelerated rate of change. At that point, we may want to wish it well as it evolves beyond influencing humans and begins chasing its further development. (Stop writing before falling into that infinitely deep rabbit hole of scenarios.)

US Politics

I should probably repeat my political philosophy: I am an extreme independent moderate. I think there is value in knowing and somewhat understanding the extremes; but I am adamant that the only way we are going to make significant progress is by moving the middle, not the edges. And neither of the US’ duopoly impress me with their skill.

But, what I am aware of is the changes inherent in various cases of corruption, ignorance, and criminal acts. We’re witnessing the public’s awareness of these issues because the internet makes them easier to learn about, and public reactions are leading to actions – even though they don’t agree. In the meantime, society will shift. Whether it shifts because it acts or shifts because we accept those exposures as normal is something worth watching but not realistic to guess about. (But, how would you un-unite the states in the United States, or what third party could be a credible challenger, or what system of government do you prefer? Go Cascadia?)

Oh yeah, and because politics is governed by perception, how much will AI influence the elections?

Nature

Nature is changing, as always, but also in new ways. Earthquakes, volcanoes, tsunamis are seemingly unrelated to anything humans do; but, fracking can initiate quakes. A conjecture is that glaciers melting and creating landslides can remove the weighty plug that keep some volcanoes contained. Tsunamis may not have a human-made trigger that I know about, but millions of people live with that threat and can’t do anything about it because they, their government, or both are too poor. That reminds me that climate change is also changing. Now that climate change is making itself apparent, we’re also more aware that its change is accelerating. Oh yeah, and remember the other population that is at risk and possibly unable to do anything about it, people in wildfire zones.

My Personal Finances – Stocks

While it is a regular exercise, I must plan time to create my semi-annual portfolio review. This is June (June? How did that get here?) It is time for me to analyse each of them, write it up, share it around, and tend to the conversations I start. There might even be a video.

This is 2023, which could be treated like any year; but I get the impression that pandemic-related delays are being processed. Three of my stocks are expected to release very good news by the end of this year. That’s any time between now and December 31, 2023. If true, my personal finances may change enough to change my life. Managing a life is the ultimate personal responsibility. Managing the ‘greater good’ is the second step; except for martyrs. First things first.

My Personal Finances – Job

My job is changing everything from the way I spend my time, eat, work, exercise, socialize, and try to maintain my health – maybe even improve it. There’s no need for great and grand projections. I’m 64. I’m not building a career; I’m just trying to do a good job. The topics mentioned above are more significant for the world, but each of us has to maintain our individual lives. Life maintenance takes time, and spending limited and critical resources deserves lots of thoughts and actions – or inactions as required.

Thanks to the job I am paying unpaid bills, looking forward to paying off debts, and un-deferring deferred chores. The greatest luxury has been not worrying as much about the grocery bill, even at these prices.

My Projects

I never thought I’d write something like this but, ‘My art is my refuge.’ Writing and photography have yet to pay bills enough to turn into a viable business, thought I am hopeful. In the meantime, I continue them because they are time spent on something I enjoy, have at least some skill at, that could benefit someone, and could benefit me. Images and ideas that I produce have generated Likes and Shares and personal compliments that encourage me to continue for the sake of others.

My art work benefits me. The camera allows me to ignore the rest of the world for a moment. Writing allows me to express myself (without being interrupted), and to imagine better worlds here, and other possibilities out there.

(Artist would chastise me if I didn’t include a plug or two: photos, photo books, books.)


That’s a bit of what my mind is juggling. This is the time to be aware of changes. Those changes are changing. The biggest ones have gone from conjectures to current events. They don’t all intertwine, but enough of them do that I pay attention as I adjust my plans, financial as well as social and existential.

They are topics that may take decades, years, months, weeks, day, or less to resolve. I think my mind will be busy. Maybe I should go sit on the deck for a while.

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Wood Water Rocks Fire

Writing science fiction makes it easier to appreciate our planet. Tell a story about another planet and challenge assumptions. While visiting with a friend at a coffeeshop we were surrounded by things that humans built. We ate and drank things that were grown then flown to is. The entire business operated by rules invented by humans to manage human events. Take those same people, write them as characters, and try to imagine what their life would be somewhere else. 

Wood

We take wood for granted. We can appreciate its usefulness and appearance, but try to imagine a world where there are no trees. At its most basic, there goes the main source of sticks and firewood. Eventually we learned how to make lumber and paper. We can build a house with it, then have rolls of paper towels and toilet paper. We’ve filled libraries with books. Both books and interior timbers have a good chance of outlasting their original tree if left to its growth and then decay. Wood is light, easy to work, and even floats. We have even made it fly. After a while we realized that the varieties of wood made it easier to find the right one.

Water

We are water with some organized impurities. Watch the movie Dune and see a world without water. Go to one of our driest deserts. It can have an austere (from one perspective) beauty. The planet doesn’t need water, but we do. Water is the key to life as we know it; but it is too easy to overlook the fact that it is a solvent that is marvelously non-toxic. It makes washing dishes much easier. It also extracts flavors from things like tea leaves. Water changes shape and state. Liquid water is obvious in the glass beside me; but it is water turning to steam that produces much of the power we use. We’re lucky that water floats when it freezes. An ice-covered lake is insulated from freezing further by ice. If the ice sank it would be easier to freeze the entire lake, which would not be good for the fish. Other planets have other fluids that act differently.

Rocks

Rocks are rocks, until you study geology and learn the differences between them. Different trees mean different uses, but that wasn’t as obvious with rocks. Early we learned that obsidian is sharp; but how long was it before someone realized that we could melt rocks? Many of our metals are merely melted rocks. That discovery was so important that we named eras after rocks. Sure, there’s the steam age; but there was also the stone age, the bronze, the iron age, and arguably, the silicon age. We may talk about driving around in metal beasts, or acknowledge that computers contain silicon, but we’re driving around in solidified melted rocks, and typing as ways to utilize crystals that we learned how to grow and process.

Fire

Fire is fundamental. It has always been around us. We describe the discovery of fire as a key point in our civilization; but it had always been there. What we discovered was how to use it. Tools, very handy. Cooking, very efficient. Warmth, we could broaden where we could live. Fire melts rocks, turns water to steam, and we create it with wood. There are water worlds where fire as we know it couldn’t exist.

Frugality is appreciating the resources available to us. The people in line at the coffeeshop were staring at phones, some were walking on artificially high heels or wearing muck boots. They arrived in cars that required metal and electronics. They were ordering hot drinks and hot food. We sat at tables of wood. Some had metal chairs and metal utensils. How far removed were they from the marvel that is our imperfect modern life?

I’m writing the sequel to Firewatcher, a sci-fi novel about people who flee the Earth because they fear an artificial intelligence. The planet they colonize is like Earth, and not. It has plants based on silicon, not cellulose. It has obsidian, but melting rocks for metals is years away. Gardening comes first. Water exists and is plentiful by this writer’s decree. No water. No life. No humans. No story. No book. Fire exists, but the ecology has evolved to emphasize it for reproduction. This place wants to burn, so they have to be much more careful about campfires. Details about their worries are in the book. 

My colonists have to turn dirt into soil, the humanure way. They have to invent new construction techniques and architecture. They have to rebuild the modern infrastructure we take for granted on this planet. They are also getting the opportunity to invent a new society, economy, and government. (I’ll save that for another book, or another author.)

We are fortunate. Some of the things that are vital to our life and society have existed longer than our species. We distance ourselves from the basics by necessity. Our civilization grew because we didn’t have to individually dig ore, tend fires, haul water, build buildings, etc. We lose the link with the basics.

Wood, water, rocks, and fire sounds like a knock-off of Guns, Germs, and Steel (a non-fiction study I recommend). But as complicated as our modern world seems, I find it useful to view it from the basics. Wood, water, rocks, and fire don’t have ad budgets like builders, beverages, cars, and energy companies; but just because a thing doesn’t have an ad doesn’t mean it has no value. It may be the foundation we’ve built upon.

Now, back to figuring out how my characters are going to survive when something as basic as the weather is alien. And then, there are the aliens, too.

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If My Business Knew Then

If I knew then… Something like that phrase has been repeating in my thoughts since I got a job with the Economic Development Council for Island County. Last evening was a lot of that. For a few hours, EDC and RAIN hosted an event where, “…we will recognize our great community and honor recent graduates from the educational programs of the Small Business Innovation Fund (SBIF) in Island county.” I wonder how much better my business(es) would be if I knew about organizations and events like it when I was starting. 

There’s the Economy and there’s the economy. The Economy, capitalized, is something that Fed chairs, the national banks, and politicians talk about on the news. That Economy is built from economies that are more regional; e.g. Island County’s. Those economies, lower case letters, are built from businesses. Businesses are built by people. Last night’s event was a collection of entrepreneurs, those individuals who support them, and the non-profits who help with training, resources, and making connections to programs that might lead to grants or loans. It was a collection of people who could keep me occupied for hours with stories of their ideas, plans, successes, and lessons.

For a couple of decades I’ve helped creative people who have ideas turn them into businesses, books, projects, or advocacies. Rarely did the topic of supportive organizations enter the discussion. Whenever loans or grants came up it was too easy to be discouraged by criteria, requirements, or simply scheduling. It was easy to be discouraged.

For my business, I was discouraged. Of my various inventions, business ventures like coworks, long-term art projects about nature, no programs became apparent at the same time and under the right conditions for me to successfully apply.

Friday evening, I applauded the entrepreneurs who found the right source, took the right classes, and made successful applications that can lead to a successful business.

I’ve always known about such folks, and they’ve always intrigued me.

What I didn’t realize until recently is that there is a network of economic development organizations, chambers of commerce, main street associations, angel investors, and fellow entrepreneurs who make much more happen by sharing opportunities. An entrepreneur may find the right program at the right time, but a network of such folks makes it easier to find the right opportunity because they are not working alone. 

Entrepreneurs talking to entrepreneurs is powerful. In the world of writing, the most powerful tool a writer has is a fellow writer (WritingOnWhidbeyIsland.com); but add in the National Endowment for the Arts, Humanities Washington, and residency programs like those held by the National Parks and money may be involved. Exposure on social media is a necessity, but that exposure is amplified with the credentials and support that comes from being recognized by established organizations.

Uh. Establishment. Didn’t we run away from that in the Sixties and Seventies? Just like Economy versus economy, there’s Establishment and establishment. The Establishment was perceived as draconian and far from diverse. Being established is proof of sustainability. Dealing with established people and organizations means there’s proof of trust, and proof of trust makes financiers more willing to finance – whatever.

If I knew then what I know now…

I still wouldn’t wear a suit. But then, keep in mind that I live in an era after we distanced ourselves from The Establishment; and I live in the US, which has been more innovative and entrepreneurial than Europe; and I live in the upper northwest corner of the lower 48 States (sorry Alaska, but aren’t you glad to not be part of the ‘lower’?), which is people who distanced themselves from the conventions of the East Coast; and I live on an island where the locals see Seattle as ‘Merika

With what I know now, I’d do simple, inexpensive things like attend the Chamber of Commerce meetings, sit in on city planning discussions, read the news, listen to the news that won’t make the news, learn from neighboring businesses by visiting them (and buying something as appropriate), and joining organizations that advocate for the local economy (Join Us) and each other. The other benefit is finding out how each differs. Is their focus one business, concentrating on one city, or working for the benefit of a larger region?

Yes, networking is powerful. It isn’t a panacea, but nothing is. (Let me check my lottery tickets.)

I’m 64 years old. I know there are success stories from people who started businesses at my age and older. I have a job with the Economic Development Council for Island County; but, my mind is not going to turn off and will continue coming up with new ideas and collaborations. 

I moved to Whidbey Island in 2005. I was frugally retired. I was more interested in being on the giving end, and thought my stocks would recover to the point where I could be an angel investor and philanthropist. This blog chronicled how that almost happened, then really didn’t. I am an optimist. It may yet happen again. 

If I knew then what I know now, I would’ve attended more of those organizations’ meeting, and sought out more to find the ones that best matched my interests. I had the time. For a while I had the money.

I also recognize that, while that’s a fine plan, many of the people I’ve worked with were in a similar situation as mine when I became frugal by necessity rather than by choice. As finances degraded, it became necessary to spend more time trying to make more money, sadly in jobs that were never quite enough. We can’t do it all, but we do what we can.

In the early years of the internet, it was more necessary to network; but it was also harder. Meeting for coffee sounds trivial until you’re in a situation where a coffeeshop is expensive. Meeting may only take 10-15 minutes, but carving out the time to prep, commute, follow-up, and then recover the lost work hours can cost hours. Now, online makes that all cheaper, granted at the cost of personal contact.

I could close this by making more general, philosophical, and academic allusions. That’s writing. But instead, I’ll use this opportunity to plug my new employer. (EDC) Why Join Us? There are enough reasons that I won’t list them all, that’s what the web site is there for. The opportunities are changing frequently enough that there’s a blog and a newsletter worth reading. The most powerful resources though are probably the people. Ask your business questions and hopefully that eventually leads to a better economy for the community whether that’s a few folk, the county, the region, the country, the planet.

Hmm. I ended up writing about the planet and all I was planning on was writing about a meeting in a bar. I guess it’s all connected.

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