Semi Annual Exercise EOY 2022
For those who have never encountered my semi-annual portfolio exercise I’ll quote myself.
“Here’s my semi-annual exercise to see if I remember why I own the stocks I own, and so I can check back and see if their stories have changed. I post in case it helps others too.”
The stories of my stocks continue to change because no company can remain static. Employees, management, markets, economies, and even politics mean it is impossible to remain the same, but I check every six months to make sure I didn’t miss something in my daily news feed. The stories of stocks and particularly the companies they represent are more interesting than most fictional stories, at least for me. Real people making real decisions without precise and complete knowledge generate drama and trauma, fears and hopes, risks and rewards.
How do I type that sound people make when they clear their throat in impatience? It has been a tough six months. The companies seem to be making progress, but the stocks aren’t. Of course, the progress hasn’t been significant enough, positive enough, and profitable enough. Or investors are simple scared. Or they know something I don’t.
Geron (GERN) is getting closer to applying for FDA approval for their telomerase-based blood disorder treatment. Maybe 2023-ish? Maybe applicable to other cancers?
Lineage Cell Therapeutics (LCTX) is getting closer to applying for FDA approval for their stem-cell-based treatments for dry-eye macular degeneration, and for regrowing nerves damaged in accidents. Maybe 2024-ish?
MicroVision (MVIS) has been supporting companies developing and in some cases selling displays and augmented reality gear but I haven’t seen a display displayed lately, and Microsoft’s Hololens hasn’t been the boost that was hoped for. Ah, but now (or still) the company is positive about LiDAR for autonomous vehicles and home security applications. As usual, MicroVision provides yet another opportunity for me to painfully chuckle at the 6-9 months, or 9-18 months optimism window I’ve heard described for 6-9 years or 9-18 years. And yes, I’ve held the stock that long.
Electrameccanica (SOLO) is selling their three-wheel, one-passenger, electric vehicle, which is good news. Their next major production facility should help soon. 2023? Will commuters and city dwellers buy enough of them? How about the commercial delivery market? 2023 could make that clear. If it is good news will I be able to buy more? The stock looks bleak.
Solarwindow continues to sell their innovative coatings that turn things like windows into solar panels. The idea looks marvelous because many buildings have more windows that opaque walls. So why hasn’t it been more successful so far? That’s why I start by buying small positions. Besides, I don’t have enough money to buy big positions, yet. This stock looks bleak, too.
There’s lots of potential for good news. Unprofitable companies can be underpriced, which seems to be the case, now, which is why I hold them, and is the basis of my personal finance strategy. (See my book: Dream. Invest. Live.) One friend described the approach as “get rich slowly.” My impatience is partly because I am now decades older and in terms of ‘sooner or later’ I have less time for later and actually have a strong desire and need for sooner.
For more details about the stocks, here are links to various discussion boards where you can find my synopses, as well as others’ points of view. For more details about how I do what I do, there’s a book that I wrote at the request of several friends: Dream. Invest. Live. Maybe you can help my personal finances by buying a copy – though the frugal part of me recommends checking one out from a library.
The following links are to various discussion boards I follow. Many of the independent investors who contribute to the discussions provide in-depth analyses that either aren’t available elsewhere, or would cost too much to buy. The other advantage is the diversity of perspectives. Unfortunately, I don’t engage as much as I did before. Some discussions have degraded due to lack of moderators, or overly zealous moderators (oxymoron), or have too many immoderate voices. Some boards are effectively ghost towns, or feel like cavernous empty warehouses. Regardless, here are the sites I continue to visit, even if it is only to lurk and listen.
I encourage you to tune in, because more voices (as long as they’re mature) make for a better conversation. Maybe I’ll read you there.
Investor Village (widest range of boards)
Motley Fool (This had the oldest boards, but recently those links no longer work. They have yet to reply to my query about what happened. This is a good example of why it makes sense to keep copies someplace that you control. That is one reason I post to this blog, and also why I post to several web sites because it is harder to lose everything that way. Alas, those first posts for MVIS may be lost.)
Silicon Investor (Relatively older boards, less trafficked, but populated with informed investors)
Reddit (many will cringe, but there’s impressive quality within the impressive quantity of posts and voices)
Trimbathcreative's Blog (Tom Trimbath) 