PSCZ

Posted on May 29, 2011 by Tom Trimbath

No, PSCZ is not a stock. Wait a minute while I check, maybe it is. It’s not a stock. (But PSCZX is a $2B mutual fund.) Around my neighborhood, PSCZ stand for the Puget Sound Convergence Zone. Cliff Mass’ excellent blog describes it better, but I simply consider it a movable micro-climate that draws a band of rain across slices of Puget Sound country. Some places get it more than others. My house seems to get hit a lot. Position makes a difference. Ask most aware Americans of how importance place can be.

My house lives due east of the Olympic Mountains, Washington State’s coastal range. It’s a distinctive range for around here because it isn’t trying to blow up. There aren’t any volcanoes along it. Instead, there are tremendous pressures building beneath it, which, on geological terms, regularly lead to massive subduction quakes and tsunamis. In California the tectonic plates grind past each other. Here, like in Indonesia and Japan, the oceanic plate slides beneath the continental plate, scrunching land at the boundary that someday pops to relieve the pressure. As the plate descends it melts, and if it finds weaknesses then rises back through the crust to form volcanoes. Welcome to Washington’s Cascades.

Let me rephrase that. The mountains to my west are building to an earthquake and a tsunami. A few miles beneath my house, ocean floor is melting into magma. The mountains east of my house are dotted with steaming volcanoes.

Yet what I want to write about is the weather.

Massive forces may surround us, but we are more likely to respond to daily events. Pacific storms hit the Olympics, split, and converge again over Puget Sound. When a split storm reconnects it tends to storm again. Welcome to Seattle and the area’s grey and rainy reputation. The weather is far more noticeable, and is one of the reasons why it is hard to even see the volcanoes. Clouds are more common.

America has a privileged geographical position. It was never easy to get here. Otherwise the first settlers would have come in crowds. Now it looks like it was only 70 people at the start. Geography gave them elbowroom and a lack of visitors for thousands of years. Sounds like the benefits of taking a risk and investing in a good idea early. Even after the European migration, America’s massive moats meant less royal and archaic influence (unless you happened to be a descendant of one of the firsts). A new culture sprung up because it was distant enough to grow untended. Cultural evolution occurred, followed by political revolution. It’s possible that global respect for personal liberties couldn’t have happened any other way.

Then, becoming an American meant commitment to this new place. Now, most Americans are born to that privilege. I’m glad for it. My life has been longer and easier (despite my griping) here than almost any other birthplace could’ve enabled. Proud to be an American? Yep. But in my case I recognize it as luck. (By the way, I am impressed with legal immigrants. Thanks for joining the party.)

Luck is powerful, and like a resource, respect for it can be powerful.

America is in a powerful position, but I no longer think we are the world leader because the world is no longer engaged in a singular struggle as in World War One, World War Two, and the Cold War. I think we all have a common interest in growing into a sustainable and thriving global culture, but people demonstrating in Northern Africa or the Middle East have more immediate fights. Others are fighting to live amidst terrorists. Others are fighting poverty, drought, flood, and many other historical ills.

Around me I see many more individual struggles. I also see proper respect for position and place, either attained through luck or effort.

I know many people who describe themselves by their job. “All I can do is (fill in the blank).” They see all of these other impressive individuals and are humbled. Except for the self-centered ones, the rest are given the joy of seeing everyone else’s talents and skills. Sometimes it is easier to be in awe of someone else’s accomplishments and efforts. (It’s why I enjoy art fairs. So much talent and diversity is heartening.)

I think this happens no matter the vocation or avocation, but the arts are an easy example. The sculptor may be impressed by the results of the painter who is impressed by the writer who is impressed by the musician who is impressed by the sculptor. “But all I can do is play an instrument.” Yep. Well, they probably have more talents than that, but I think the artists that do best step confidently or at least courageously into the role of showing the world what they can do. Hopefully the world appreciates and compensates. (Classic artist mistake = pricing their art too low because, “All I do is . . .” Respect yourself.)

These personal battles and personal abilities are foundations from which we can build toward the longer term and more global goals.

Do I live in a wet land? Yep, though it’s dry today. Things grow well here. Grey days are great for getting things done. Sailors love the winds. Skiers love the snowpack. West of here is rain forest. East of here is nearly rain forest. Go a bit farther and find high and cold. A bit farther east and find more arid. (I love the diversity. That’s why I wrote the books.) Do folks in eastern Washington live in a dry land? Yep. Something else grows well there. Every place, person and time has it’s power and potential. Imagine how much we can get done given all of that.

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A Million Thoughts

Posted on May 25, 2011 by Tom Trimbath

Money is on my mind. That’s probably because it’s the end of the month and I’m not a millionaire. Actually, when I was a millionaire, money was on my mind at the end of the month, but the thoughts were significantly different. There was a bit of anxiety in both situations, but one is understandably more pronounced. In both cases though, the anxieties came from unknowns. Will there ever be enough? Will it all suddenly disappear? What if? What if?

Around the time of the Internet bubble and again a few years later, while married, I spent some time as one half of a millionaire household. It wasn’t a dynamic achievement. It wasn’t the result of singular luck. As I describe in my book, Dream. Invest. Live. (now available on kindle!), our net worth accomplishment was the result of good jobs, a comfortable and frugal lifestyle, and a diversified stock portfolio. Want more details? Read the book. The main story though is that a lot of tired advice is unfashionable but correct. Spend less than you make. Invest the rest. Go ask someone who lived through the Great Depression.

We didn’t have a million dollar bills sitting in a vault. Most millionaires get there by adding up various pots of money and other assets: stocks, businesses, real estate, etc. They add up to over a million on paper, but it can be hard to believe they are real. There are too many ways that each can vanish. Each valuation is a guess, and their sum is a sum of guesses. Each could be worth more, and maybe eventually worth much more, but each can also lose value and they could lose their value together. We’ve just witnessed the Dismal Decade when bubbles popped in the stock and real estate markets and when businesses were worth less because the economy wasn’t healthy.

Staring at a seven digit TOTAL on a spreadsheet is not the same as being ready to pay bills from a stuffed checking account. The bills drain from a smaller reservoir and their impact is therefore larger. Despite that, the optimist also can look at the potential growth in the other assets. As long as the assets’ worth grows faster than the expenses, the total increases. Nice – if you can count on it. An awareness of wealth brings an awareness of economic frailty. When you’ve got it, you realize you can lose it.

Regardless of wealth, life has other circumstances, situations and consequences. Divorces happen, and no, the details of that story aren’t in the book, but it wasn’t soap opera material or dramatic events. In my case amidst national economic turmoil, enough for two divided by two, was not enough for one. Stock market bubbles pop. Real estate fluctuates. Specialized careers, like commercial aerospace engineering, aren’t worth much outside the corporate cubicles. Anxiety ensued. Optimism did too.

Median household annual income in America is about $31,000. Should I get such a job? I consider that question, especially during the numerous downturn months we’ve recently experienced. Obviously, many maintain households on that amount, and that amount would greatly ease my situation, especially because I have a moderate stock portfolio and a reasonable house and mortgage. At the same time though, that moderate stock portfolio has managed much larger swings within minutes as stellar news has hit individual stocks. One or two such good days per year, with the rest averaging to zero, and I’d be better without the stress and cost of time spent at a job. I’m an investor. I’m an optimist. Of course I think I can have more than enough such good days every year.

Nothing is certain, neither jobs nor stocks. My stocks and my real estate currently total to a much smaller number than they did when I bought this house. As long as they last, jobs bring paychecks and benefits for the cost of time. Jobs can also be major sources of stress or satisfaction, depending on the job.

I invest in companies that I believe will succeed. Most of the companies represented in my stock portfolio are doing well. One or two (hello MVIS) don’t appear to be doing well, but have enormous potential. Two companies, American Superconductor and Dendreon, are progressing as I expected, but their stocks, AMSC and DNDN, are worth much less than I think is reasonable. Maybe I am wrong. Maybe the market is wrong.

If I am significantly wrong, then sometime in the next few years I’ll have to get a job, as long as I don’t mind draining my IRA later this year. If I am right, even without extra optimism, then my worries will look silly in retrospect and my time will be better spent the way I am spending it now: as an artist, entrepreneur, volunteer, social innovator, relaxed human being living long and prosperously. Some of the most optimistic scenarios put me back into that seven digit realm, though its return would be tempered by experience.

My answer has been to follow my intuition. It’s a path that is not obvious, but that has led me to community and insights unavailable elsewhere. This path has produced art via my books and photos. I’ve enjoyed public speaking and teaching. (Don’t forget tonight’s class.) Entrepreneurship and social innovation are fascinating open-ended avenues to travel. All of these trails lead to various satisfactions. Any of these trails could lead to income (those books and photos are on sale now!), which wraps back into thoughts about jobs and careers.

Investor, employee, or bohemian; which should I be? I suspect that eventually it will look like I am all three.

So here I sit, waiting for money from a recent stock trade within a dwindling portfolio. After the money shows up in my checking account, I’ll pay a pallet of bills. If you thought I lived this life without worry or concern, you obviously weren’t thinking about this as much as me.

By the way, as I typed this, DNDN is up about a dollar. Multiply by a few thousand shares and many bills could be paid from one day’s action. Ah, but what about tomorrow?

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Crowded Art Markets

Posted on May 21, 2011 by Tom Trimbath

Aargh! We’re  crowded. As of a few months ago I spend most Saturdays sitting and selling my art. Paul Petersen has extra space in his metal and glass studio; so, he’s has opened the doors to local artists in a weekly Saturday mini-art fair. Thinking of those humongous events with hundreds or thousands of artists jammed booth by stall? Ha. This is an island thing. Six of us are enough to pack the space. And we aren’t alone. Art is catching on in painting, sketching, performing, writing, and even in the corporate realm. Is there already too much or can we ever have too much?

Once upon a time in a galaxy identical to our own I lived in a different world: my 18 years as an aerospace engineer at Boeing. I worked on rockets and satellites long enough to grab the badge of rocket scientist, but really those few years made me much more impressed with those who’d legitimately held the title for decades. I miss the work, the people, and the paychecks. Maybe the corporate culture has changed by now. Maybe I’d travel back into the aerospace world for the right project. In the meantime, the world I inhabit more frequently is that of art and artists, a world not so completely alien – except for the finances.

My artwork stretches back to the mid-seventies, but I didn’t realize that until I wrote my first book, Just Keep Pedaling in 2002. That book led to more books, which led to photography, and now both have led to my stint educating people about modern self-publishing. Looking back I started my art career journalling and photographing for fun as a teenager, and both quickly worked their way into the high school newspaper. I can’t recall any direct influence from my art classes. It all just seemed to happen.

That was the seventies in a suburb of Pittsburgh over by a couple of mills. It was not an art-conducive environment, yet in retrospect art was there.

Today’s world is much different. In the last ten years, writing has broken out because of blogging and print-on-demand publishing. Photography has been transformed by digital cameras and sophisticated software. Performance arts are captured on small and simple equipment then easily loaded onto YouTube. Sketching and fabric arts are group events.

Locally, this venue and a few others (“downtown” Clinton, Bayview, Langley, Freeland – so I’ve heard) have opened or resurrected to accommodate artists. Supply is up. The traditional and stereotypical artists continue, those dedicated and experienced people who excel at one or two arts. I think the majority of the increase is from those embarking on second careers and those tackling it as a second, or third, or fourth job. Some are driven by passion. Some are driven by financial need. For some, it just happens.

Art is happening more consciously too. As friend Smolinsky put it in his corporate consultation blog, “And art, what does art bring?”.
He answers his own question by listing the influence and benefits within corporate culture.
“Art brings eloquence in communication.” Think Powerpoint that actually works.
“Art brings innovation.” “Managers who are skilled innovators learn to lead not force.”
“Art brings willingness to take risk.” “Knowing how to assess risk and use it wisely leads to managers who rally their people forward into new heights of success.”

Sounds like the consequences of art are in demand.

Supply and demand may be in the midst of a new relationship within the art world.

In the last decade print-on-demand publishing has grown from only printing one-fifth as many books as the traditional industry to now producing more. E-books from kindle and Nook are now rising to exceed both. Martha Stewart and the craft store Michaels are entry drugs addicting people to the realization that they have always been creative. Suppliers to the professionals, like Daniel Smith, benefit as novices transition from hobbyist to crafter to artist.

Demand for artistic expression is up, but demand for art is less certain. There are more books. There are more writers. There are fewer readers. Photography has become easier and maybe some are happier hanging their own photos, instead of, for instance, buying mine. Do-It-Yourself is usually Consumed-and-Appreciated-by-Yourself. Now I realize that the prices for most art doesn’t do much to compensate for the artist’s time and trials.

Technology is blamed for ills. Art frequently has been trivialized and dismissed as useless. Yet we live in an era and a world where technology is helping people recognize the artist within, and society is recognizing the benefits of artistic expression, and also artistic perspective.

Is it getting crowded because there are too many artists? Of course. Those of us here today (Paul, Susan, Kim, Judy, Anne and me) spent the first hour or two shuffling around display panels, and helping each other with hanging hardware as we settled into our spaces trying to make it all fit. As a trend, it looks like society is doing something similar, creating a crowd of artists, maybe on purpose, maybe it’s just happening.

As for a crowd of buyers, well, I guess that’s what I’m sitting here for. Luckily, sitting amongst art with artists is quite comfortable. A little crowding can be a good thing.

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Overlooked Upstart Seedlings

Posted on May 18, 2011 by Tom Trimbath

Big things start small. Acorns to oaks, snowflakes to avalanches, ideas to revolutions. Big things are in the news, whether we are interested or not; but, because they are big, editors and reporters talk about them. Big things touch many people, so the news touches more lives. I look elsewhere because usually by the time something is recognized as big, Its effects are nearing their end. It is not new and therefore not news. I enjoy watching for the disruptive notions, ingenious solutions, comically simple insights. That’s where the new news lives.

Every major philosophy and institution began as an idea in one person’s head. Occasionally there is simultaneity, just ask Rupert Sheldrake about his research into morphic resonances (at least as I understand it.) An idea living in only one head has a fragile home. We humans aren’t invulnerable, yet. Somewhere between a solitary address and world-wide reach, an idea is planted in hopefully fertile ground. One of the nice things about most ideas is that the same seed can be planted many times.

That’s not true in the world of business. Intellectual property rights, patents and inventions particularly, reside within one company at a time for the first twenty years. That seems like a long time, but in high tech and biotech, two decades may be needed to develop the supporting technologies, prove safety and efficacy, and clear the regulatory hurdles. It’s a risky business, and small businesses can only accommodate a few risks. Many ideas are shelved or forgotten. Some are sold and licensed if they are valuable enough but not core to the company’s strategy.

Set the way-back machine to 1999. I learned about a company that had the potential to revolutionize the way we viewed almost every electronic display. If Microvision‘s (MVIS) idea worked, images would be projected onto our retinas. To some the idea was silly, but most new ideas look that way. We’ve taken for granted the fact that our devices have to store an image, shove it onto a tiny bit of glass that commands the device’s acreage and sucks up lots of power but isn’t readily readable in strong light. Our retinas evolved to capture photons. Why not take advantage of that and lightly paint the image where it needed to go? I bought some stock.

Microvision had plenty of such ideas for image display and image capture. They had even more exotic technologies involving electro-optical materials that allowed for high-capacity switches, antennas, and bio-labs on a chip without any moving parts. Unfortunately, the company’s products were perpetually delayed (until recently, but that’s another story). Ideas were shelved as technology hit roadblocks. Maybe management guessed wrong or was too optimistic. They decided to concentrate on displays. Spinning off the electro-optical group into Lumera, a separate company, made them some money and removed a distraction without abandoning the idea.

Lumera looked good. Its technology was harder to understand, but could be just as disruptive. Instead of replacing a large fraction of the world’s displays, Lumera could dramatically enter the industrial electronics market only seen by uber-geeks. They aimed at the high-end of the high-tech industry with devices that were smaller, less likely to break down, probably cheaper and therefore probably had a higher profit margin. Maybe it was technology’s hurdles. Maybe it was management again, but the company never made enough money to survive independently.

GigOptix (GGOX.OB) stepped in. They were a tiny company with less advanced products, but they could make money from their existing products, had money, and used it to merge with Lumera. It was more like a buyout though. The name changed. The headquarters moved. The Lumera people began to disperse. Most of the Lumera product development pipeline was cancelled – except for the electro-optical switches. Every place a fiber optic cable ties into an electrical cable there’s a good chance that there’s an electro-optical switch. It’s a big market that few of us ever see but it makes downloading movies possible. They were a less passionate company but more business-like. Maybe they’d succeed. I bought some stock.

Microvision, the company that’s been working on their products for over a decade recently announced first quarter earnings of $1,100,000; less than the value of some houses in my neighborhood. GigOptix’s first quarter earnings were $7,700,000; seven times higher. Despite seven times the revenue, GigOptix’s market cap, the company’s value on the stock market, is one-fourth that of Microvision. Either GGOX.OB is very cheap, MVIS is too expensive, or something else is going on. Maybe it’s that management thing again. Maybe it’s because small companies are easily overlooked.

I think the potential is that they are both undervalued because of the fear in the market. The market is hunting for stability and safety. If it can’t trust banks, why would investors trust little companies even if they have big ideas?

Any time there is a mismatch between price and value there is an opportunity for investors. I don’t know Microvision’s or GigOptix’s futures. Microvision has issues with green lasers, cash, and credibility. GigOptix may be onto something very good, but I’ve had a harder time getting to know the non-local management. In the meantime, I have enough shares in both to become comfortable, but wish the stocks appreciated soon. I’ve got bills to pay.

Disruptive ideas don’t simply exist within business. How many protests and revolutions have begun because someone posted an idea on a church door or Twitter? I use my interest in innovation for my investing, but I also use it to track the health of my larger investment – my love for this life and this planet. There are lots of ideas out there that are the size of acorns and snowflakes which are easy to miss because more attention is paid to corporate and governmental behemoths. I suspect though, that eventually, the solutions to our big problems will come from small ideas – those upstart seedlings that are currently easy to overlook.

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One Stop Shop Town

Posted on May 14, 2011 by Tom Trimbath

Big city life means lots of boutiques that only sell one thing in the middle of town and mega-stores on the outskirts that claim the convenience of one-stop shopping. I don’t live there anymore. Last night a favorite local island band, the Rural Characters, played a silly song called, Shopping in Clinton. Clinton, a town smaller than some mega-stores. A town that embodies the notion that if the stores don’t have it you don’t need it. Their less means a lot more.

The Rural Characters are four guys that pack the house whenever they play, and they only play when they want to. Play is the right word. They aren’t a band that’s trying to get rich. They’re just trying to have fun making music. Luckily they play in public. During last night’s gig (which was out of town – in Langley) that benefited other artists they asked for suggestions that described their genre – as long as the genre name included the word compost. Send those ideas to PO Box  . . . – nah, I won’t publicize it and unleash a world’s worth of snail mail. They didn’t have to give the rest of the address because we all knew it. I’ve already sent in my suggestion: My Folk’s Rocky Country Compost w/ Rhythm and Blues. I think that covers most, but not all, of what they play.

A few years back I asked a couple of them about their CDs or DVDs. They didn’t have any. They weren’t going to make any. Their level of expertise warrants it, but music for money takes more effort and stress, and music as an occupation is even more effort and stress with no guarantee of success. They have fun. We have fun. Why do anything different?

Everyone has talents and skills. The lucky ones have talents and skills that are useful for their era. Warren Buffett has made the claim that he isn’t necessarily the smartest man, but he was born with the right nature and nurture for this time. There will also be people who’s upbringing and genetics are either too late or too early. My basket weaving skills come to mind.

I could spend my time weaving baskets. They are decidedly rustic. My baskets take dozens of hours to make. Similar, better, artisan baskets sell for about $120. Divide the money by the hours and don’t forget to subtract out damaged, returned, and stored inventory and something that might be fun can become a source of stress without much recompense.

Much of American life is centered around making money, making the most of everything. Every moment is precious and time is money so don’t waste time because that is wasting money and a vicious and unhealthy cycle is begun.

During last night’s intermission a woman three seats away immediately popped open two cell phones. She balanced the clamshell one in her lap and read from it as she tiny typed on the mini-keyboard of the other. There wasn’t a moment to lose, at 9PM, on a Friday night, in a town that’s notorious for having bad cell signals, while in a theater full of sociable folks. She didn’t look happy or relaxed. Maybe she was in the midst of an emergency. Maybe not.

The band’s song about shopping in Clinton made fun of their and my small town, but they also made a point whether they wanted to or not. Clinton, WA only has a population of a few thousand, and that’s only because the post office boundaries extend far beyond the town’s border. Despite that, Clinton has a smallish supermarket, a packed and cluttered hardware store, coffee shops, at least two restaurants, one bar, two banks, places I’ve never entered, a library and a post office. Oh yeah, and the ferry terminal. This is an island. The ferry terminal is important. Without it, the town would be much smaller. I haven’t measured Clinton, but I suspect most of the shops and stores and their parking lots would fit inside a mainland mall. Here, I can park in one place and walk to everything I need.

Mainland malls are frantic and have become so filled with specialized stores selling un-necessities that they seem like a waste of time. The useful mainland stores have moved out and expanded into the big boxes that separate each other by enough asphalt to require driving from one to the other. They’re big because they have everything, even lots of things you don’t need. One stop shopping only happens if you’re shopping for things that are like each other.

For me, frugality is defined as a respect for resources: time, money, materials. Last night four guys playing with music and helping the audience have fun taught me a lesson. A frugal life, a life that respects me and the planet, is easier on an island. The Rural Characters have known it for much longer. Island life, and rural life, has less. There aren’t many stores. They don’t have as much stuff, and that’s a good thing. There isn’t as much time, money, and materials wasted making, chasing, buying, and sorting through clutter. As an islander I may have to do without a few things, but I also don’t have to wade through gazingas and goo-gaws.

Ironically, I think the same could be said for central urban life. Everything is within walking distance, or accessible via public transit. All of those boutique stores each fit someone’s needs. There may be more gazingas and clutter to filter through, but there’s less time wasted driving from one parking space to another. Committing to an urban life even may allow giving up a car and all of its hassles and expenses. I suspect that a city life is more easily drawn into the chase for money though. Most of the activities require it.

I’ll stick to my island life. It does more than simplify shopping. It simplifies community, conversation, creation. Fewer things and people are measured by money. Money continues to be a necessity, but free is easier to find. Food can be grown in backyards, as long as the deer, bunnies and slugs don’t find it. Entertainments may be as simple as sitting on the deck and watching the whales and eagles cruise by, or involve gatherings of dancers, artists, volunteers and thinkers. Even relaxation, something I’m trying to get better at, is easier, which probably doesn’t come as a surprise.

You are all welcome to come on by to shop and stop for a bit. The shopping may not take long. But be careful, the stopping and enjoying can go on for a long time.

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Taught Muscles

Posted on May 11, 2011 by Tom Trimbath

We’ve been wrapped up tight. Can you feel it too? Terrorists tightened up our security efforts to ridiculous effect. Centuries of unintended consequences endanger our environment. Food scares make dinner an occasion for debate instead of relaxation. I think it’s time to practice no-tight.

I won’t claim to come up with the term tight/no-tight. It come from an old style of karate that I’ve practiced for over 25 years now. Practice is the right word because that much practice has proved to me how much more I have to learn. Like many aspects of the art, tight/no-tight is a simple yet elusive concept that is powerful enough to be worth the chase.

The iconic images of martial artists are zero-fat sculpted bodies with muscles delineated beneath glistening skin. Very tight looking. That ain’t me. I’m 52 years old. When I practice karate it isn’t very vigorous, dramatic, or even sweaty. My sessions are more like Tai Chi, slow and attempts at understanding the aspects of the art and myself. Surprisingly, those icons like Bruce Lee were actually very good at being loose. They were flexible and their muscles were taught to tightened fully for precise fractions of a second within a technique. My body looks looser, partly because of my American diet padding, yet beneath that can be too much tension. I’ve been so tight at times that my muscles ached and strained from days or weeks or more of stress.

The handy and humbling aspect of decades of training is the personal introspection that makes me laugh at myself. “I was tightened up about that? That’s silly.”

The Dismal Decade tightened many people. Many types of defenses were erected. It is unfortunate human nature that our defenses tend to outlast the threats. We continue to maintain nuclear missiles. I suspect TSA won’t go away soon. How many of us continue in adulthood to counter conflicts experienced in childhood?

This blog was inspired by my book, Dream. Invest. Live., partly because friends commented that my reaction to money was different than theirs. I wasn’t always worried about money. I wasn’t always ignorant of it. Some people worry about every penny, and may think there’s never enough even when they are worth millions. Others never worry about money because they don’t want to, or have so little or so much that it doesn’t matter to them. My attitude isn’t best or worst. It is merely mine. Money is a resource. I’ve witnessed the progression from money buying happiness, from when paying bills is difficult; to when more money doesn’t make a difference because there’s more than enough for necessities, luxuries and philanthropies. Right now money would make happiness easier. I can pay my bills, but it is prudent for me to delay some because the money is coming from my core investments. (A divorce and the recent economic downturn didn’t help the money side of my life.)

Within karate, tight/no-tight is practiced as a way to manage energies, internal resources. A fighter who is always taut tires easily, moves more slowly, and is more likely to damage their own joints and connective tissues. No-tight might work for the master practitioners and is the ultimate because it can also lead to no-conflict, but moments of tightness are useful for when two opponents make contact. Then, taut muscles can protect bones and organs. Karate is about defense. The counter exists though and uses the same principle.

For me, money is something to handle with tight/no-tight. Ultimately I could be completely no-tight and trust to the universe and the divine to provide all of my needs and wants, but I suspect that would require a monastic or saintly life that few can manage. I could also relax with substantially more than enough, a calculation that I’ll leave for another time. I’ve lived the life of an impoverished grad student, watching every penny and challenging every book and food purchase. Realistically though, I tighten up my money awareness when I am preparing to pay my bills or when I go shopping, but I am not agonizing over every minute of electricity used, or the exact amount for a tip. I tighten my attention when I am deciding on how to spend hundreds or more, and am no-tight when I am deciding on how my nickels and dimes are spent. (And yes, it is still possible to be “nickeled and dimed to death”, but nickels and dimes aren’t as powerful as they were when we had five-and-dime stores. I can’t even find the cent symbol on my keyboard anymore.)

I’ve learned that many of my health issues are stress-related. I tightened up over many of the same things we all tighten up about, not just money. The consequences encouraged me to relax, relax some more, and then relax some more. I think I’m hearing the hint. At least my body feels better and friends tell me that I even sound better.

We also just went through some traumatic times that tested everyone. On an individual level and on a societal level, I think we could use a bit more no-tight: a less contentious political atmosphere, less political correctness, more levity, and maybe shed some old defenses. Parts of this era will look silly in retrospect. I highly suggest that we can also benefit from some internal no-tight. We deserve it. We’ve been through a lot.

Okay, time to take my own advice. While typing this up I’ve handled three or four other chores, including today’s karate practice. I think it’s time for a relaxing cup of tea.

PS For those writers in the audience, I practice tight (concentrate on writing this blog within an hour or two) and no-tight (forget about it after that). Just an example that works for me.

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Safe Tech Relations

Posted on May 7, 2011 by Tom Trimbath

My apologies to Casey Crafts. I was supposed to teach a class there today, but had to cancel. They were going to let me teach basket weaving, but I ran out of time and backed out. In Washington State, English Ivy is a noxious weed. I turn noxious weeds into garden art by weaving ivy and holly into wreathes, baskets, balls, and random shapes. (Not every project is a success.) Basket weaving is proof that some technologies survive. We learned how to weave before we conquered fire. We gave birth to technology and continue to raise it, but now it has now progressed to the point that it may move out on its own. Family relations are about to get interesting.

It’s Saturday, which means I’m sitting in Paul Petersen’s glass and metal art studio selling my books and photos. Paul’s arts rely on fire. It is very primal. The furnace roars. Heat is either intense, or swept away by breezes blowing through the open garage doors. Glass pops and cracks, and the rare dropped piece brings a chorus of sympathy from us and a resigned grin from him. My arts are quieter and more ephemeral. The garden baskets are temporary. My books and photos are based on collections of photons and electrons, insubstantial and possibly eternal.

I started weaving baskets as a way to clean up the yard. English ivy grows too well here. It’s resilient, flexible, and pervasive. That’s why it’s hard to eradicate, but I realized that those same qualities must be good for something. Weaving material. Besides, the cost was right. What did I have to lose from trying? If my baskets were no good they could become compost or kindling. It wasn’t until months later that I recognized the juxtaposition of a rocket scientist / digital artist diving into one of the most ancient technologies. It was fun spanning that much history.

Technology is like money: not a good or an evil, just another product of our civilization. Our use creates positive or negative impact, but ultimate consequences are hard to predict. Would we have developed the automobile if we’d known how many people would be killed in accidents or how pollution would impact the planet? If we hadn’t developed the car, how many horses and other draft animals would’ve led tortuous lives, and how much land would be required for millions or billions of methane producing oxen? Zero impact has only been an option for zero human scenarios.

We begin with immature technologies and develop along with them. Paul’s furnace is fire contained, concentrated and controlled far beyond an evening’s campfire. Our cars have developed. Check with those that remember the 1960s. Smokey exhausts, noisy engines, dim headlamps, dangerous interiors were common but not noticeable then. Watch a vintage truck drive by and imagine millions of those cars and their impact. We’ve progressed the technology, possibly not fast enough, but it and we do progress.

Change is happening more quickly. I follow trends and developments for investing, but also to understand where our civilization and environment are headed. It’s one of the reasons I like living more than a hundred feet above today’s sea level. I’ve seen the data on rising seas. It affects my life choices. The data on technological change suggests that technology is changing more quickly than us, our civilization, and our environment. Ray Kurweil’s book, The Singularity Is Near describes the perspective of exponentially accelerating technological evolution. It is possible that a computer will design a computer that is smarter than itself, which will design a computer that is smarter than itself, which will lead to an intelligence that rapidly exceeds human understanding and control. Optimists conjecture benign intelligences making decisions that solve mankind’s’ problems. Pessimists point to movies like The Terminator and The Matrix, while sci-fi fans know novels that describe far worse threats. Replicators and berserkers are possible. Personally, there are many possibilities, but I suspect the greatest probability is heavily influenced by Murphy’s Law, not that things will go wrong, but in this case that all predictions are flawed.

Despite the flaws predictions are useful to make. Referencing history helps. We’ve created technologies that allow billions to live, but have dramatically impacted the planet. We’ve also modified technologies to increase the positive and decrease the negative, though Murphy and unintended consequences modify the outcome. If technology matures to the point that it moves out on its own, then it defines positive and negative, though I suspect that Murphy remains powerful. We won’t be in control, but we will probably live within mature technology’s influence. Our relationship with technology will have changed more dramatically than what a parent experiences as a child becomes a parent.

History proves that civilizations have planned for one set of futures, but have been radically altered by surprises. Monotheism, bubonic plague, Mongols, and Europeans landing in America surprised and ruined the plans of pagans, royalty, the Roman Empire, and Native Americans. We’re trying to deal with limited resources, global impoverishment, overpopulation, and damaged environments, but I suspect that a radical and self-empowered technological intelligence is equally influential. Most of our global issues are described as extrapolated impacts for 2100. Many people alive today could see that day. Some rental agreements reach that far. Many of us plan for a third of that time with 30 year mortgages. Technological progress is happening more rapidly. Ray Kurweil estimates that technology will grow up and move out within twenty years.

An event twenty years from now is within the scope of IRA’s, federal debt reduction plans, and is less time than it takes for a newborn to reach adulthood.

Is Ray right? I don’t know, but I do know that it puts my plans in perspective. Projecting a portfolio’s growth through retirement can involve debates about whether markets will average a 5%, 7%, or 10% growth. Pick your number, but don’t be surprised if bigger changes enter your life. My plans are drawn with a broader brush, aren’t built with an expectation of exacting focus. I situate myself based on a good guess, and am ready to move if it looks like a good idea.

In the meantime, the ivy continues to grow on a friend’s property so I’ll drop by, pick some, weave some, and maybe teach some. Some things never change.

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Comfortable Care

Posted on May 4, 2011 by Tom Trimbath

“Old age ain’t no place for sissies.” It’s a quote attributed to Bette Davis. Old is relative and lately I’ve felt relatively old. Relative to the ancient Romans I’m ancient, but their life expectancy was only 28 (including horrendous infant mortality) and was only 52 if they made it to their teen years. Hey, I’m 52! There’s another old quote, but I can’t find the attribution so I’ll paraphrase, “No illness, short life. Little illness, long life.” The idea is that a little illness inspires a person to pay attention to their body, which ultimately leads to better care. The issue of big illness is left unspoken. I’ve had some aches and pains that couldn’t be ignored. I hope the result is a longer, healthier life. The trick has been finding the right care, care that I am comfortable with.

I don’t like boring people with my pains. Instead I tend to mention that I’m taking it easy, or trying to tend to my blood pressure, or my back, or whatever. I’m not going to belabor the points here either. The consequence though has been a tour through various health care facilities. I’ve witnessed a range of costs, attitudes, and my reactions to my options.

Costs are definitely an issue. I miss the health care I had at Boeing, and know why folks with company provided benefits may not understand health care costs. I’m glad that I’m not one of the 50,000,000 uninsured Americans, but I can understand their situation. My monthly health insurance costs about as much my monthly food budget. That insurance has such a high deductible that I essentially pay out of pocket for the first few thousand dollars. It is a very uninsured feeling. My issues have involved cardiovascular and gastro-endocrinology (how is that spelled) so it made sense to sign up for treadmill tests and colonoscopies. It made sense until I asked for estimates. Each test was over $2,000. My potential total for three tests was almost $8,000, which might, but not necessarily, be partly covered by my insurance. The tests were mostly diagnostic. I didn’t want to ask how much it would cost to actually fix anything.

Costs like those did not help my blood pressure. I signed up for for the first test, showed up during a day when they were practicing emergency preparedness, went into a panic attack while waiting, which shot up my blood pressure and interrupted the test. I didn’t get my money back. Do they even have money back guarantees?

Some other incidents took me to the point that I associated western health care with stress, which has become an unfortunate cycle. There’s an old joke that’s also old advice. “Doctor, doctor. It hurts when I do this.” “Well, then. Don’t do that.” Doctor, doctor, it hurts to show up at your office. Well, then . . .

But the main hurts remain so I sought other solutions.

Whidbey Island is home to many alternative healing practices, though alternative is a relative notion. The Chinese probably don’t label acupuncture as “alternative”. It’s mainstream there, isn’t it? Many of my friends are healers, though they may call themselves practitioners, coaches, consultants, or counselors, probably to help better describe the benefits of their discipline. I have a lot to choose from.

For reasons that would fit a book, but are associated with my martial arts background, and also for convenience I decided to try acupuncture. Something felt out of balance and acupuncture is one of many ways to rebalance the body. It was worth a try and a highly recommended establishment (what do you call an acupuncture office – ah, there are so many pin puns that I’ll skip) was a just a long walk from my house. (Let’s keep in mind that I can walk a long way. Remember Scotland?) Oriental Healing Arts isn’t just an acupuncture office, which means they don’t always use needles. They understand and use a suite of techniques, many that I don’t understand, but my understanding was not required. Even western medicine tends to work with a great deal of uncertainty.

I’ve been there several times over the last few months. I’m feeling better, and I have a way to go before I’m back to feeling good and normal again. (Yeah, I know, normal ain’t normal; and folks have said that I’ve never been normal.) What’s worked and why? The scientist in me can’t draw conclusions because I am a clinical trial of one, which is a very small sample from which to draw statistics. Julie, the Msc.D., E.A.M.P., whatever that spells, could describe my diagnosis and prognosis, though I am sure that professional discretion means that you won’t hear those details unless I tell you. I haven’t asked for the whole story. Stay tuned. I can say though that I feel better.

After a few visits I realized that those details didn’t matter, at least not immediately. Visiting Julie’s place was a remarkable contrast to visiting my other doctors. I associate Oriental Healing with comfort, pleasant surroundings, quiet music, relaxed atmosphere, and no rush. I’ve come to associate Western offices and clinics with standing in line, proving insurance first, waiting while they run behind schedule, quick handling through multiple measurements, a hurried conversation, probably an expensive prescription, and a fear that I might be walking into the first of a long schedule of specialists. It’s easy to imagine open-ended costs running me into bankruptcy.

Allow me to emphasize that I like the people in both places. Health care providers are compassionate people. They smile well. But one group works in a much nicer setting. I have the choice of an organic garden or a hydroponics farm. I also have the choice of either feeling like I am being treated as a person or feeling like I’m a product on an assembly line. I’ve got a business and geek inclination. I understand assembly line efficiency. That efficiency drives down costs. Paradoxically, the assembly line version of health care costs more, isn’t as pleasant, and isn’t demonstrably more effective. Doctor, doctor, why would I do that? Most of my issues seem to stem from stress. I’m not the only stressed person out here. Which makes more sense with that in mind?

Oh, and the frugal finance geek in me was pleasantly surprised to learn that acupuncture qualifies as a health care income tax deduction. That too is a comforting thought. (Though not as comfortable as resting on the soft sheets with the music playing with my eyes closed. Besides, keeping my eyes closed keeps my brain from thinking too much. Relax dude. Does that feel good? Yeah. Then do more of that.)

So, some advice for you and me: Be comfortable. Take care.

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Curious Nose Prints

Posted on April 30, 2011 by Tom Trimbath

The economy must be doing better. There were nose prints on the glass. Windows don’t get smudged by people standing back. Something convinced them to be curious enough to lean forward.

Last week I taught my ever-changing seminar on Modern Self-Publishing. I won’t go into the details here, but the quick version is that the publishing industry is undergoing the same changes that we’ve watched in independent movies and music. The class continues to change because the technology continues to change. Digital technology is changing many industries, including the arts, and yes, art is an industry; it just isn’t as efficiently or boringly managed as most corporations. The class was fun, I do enjoy teaching, but the timing could have been better. Langley’s Welcome the Whales parade literally passed me by while I stayed inside and taught. Reports are that it was fun. The video certainly showed a crowd. Oh well, at least I got to see it on YouTube.

It was hard to ignore the crowds as they passed the class room windows. Luckily, living in a tourist town is a wonderful education in people watching. This is a small town island and I could tell that most of the people wandering by weren’t familiar, weren’t locals, and were welcomed back. The tourists were in town again. There’ve always been a few, but during the last few lean years, the few were more likely to stroll by instead of wander through the shops. Last weekend many were more curious. They pressed their noses to the glass. They even walked into buildings that weren’t shops or stores. They were exploring forgotten realms. One walked into my class as if we were some art performance. Maybe we were from her point of view. I didn’t mind and invited her to stay – for the nominal fee of course.

Ah, but gas prices are up. The conventional wisdom is that people won’t be traveling or buying as much. I understand convention. I agree and think it is wrong, but in a good way.

People may not travel as far, but there are years of pent-up demand. They are getting out. Travel will be simpler and more local.

They may not be buying as much, but I think they are more conscious about what they buy.

If we all stayed home and bought nothing the planet may say thank you, but our civilization would suffer, at least temporarily. Besides, the buying isn’t as important as the community and one place community has always collected has been the market.

The effects of the Dismal Decade are fading. Aspects will remain, just like we still live with the implications of the Great Depression and the Civil War (aka War Between the States, The Northern Oppression, etc.). Our history shapes our future. That shouldn’t be news. It may seem that we never learn, but evidently we do. Sometime along the line we realized the benefits of the steam engine, the end of slavery, the Internet, equality for all, farming, and our interconnections.

There is always an argument for revolutionary change. This may be the time. Maybe we’re ready for it, maybe not. To me it is obvious that the recent economic turmoil changed many lives and attitudes, but it is also evident that many habits remain. I think the retreat to old ways of consuming are about to become anachronisms though. Bigger, faster cars, brighter bling, fancier gadgets, are becoming the goal of fewer, those that are still conspicuously rich. I find it interesting that the elite, the rich that are getting richer, are the ones most likely to reside in a more exclusive, and more energetically defended, shrinking enclave within our society. The rich that are getting richer are fewer. The number that are poor are increasing. At some point that imbalance corrects itself. Hmm, I think I just walked myself back around to revolutionary change.

I don’t know where we are heading as we leave the Dismal Decade behind. Our societies have always embodied some injustice, at least in retrospect. The only way injustice may be eradicated is a sudden global awakening of the global consciousness. Prayers for that have existed since prayers extended beyond asking for help in the hunt.

We may not have attained unanimity, but significant numbers of people are becoming more empowered and more globally aware. The digital effects on media are allowing expression at historic levels. Blogs like this never existed except as journalism subjected to excruciating editorial review which caught lots of typos, but filtered away passion and voice. Digital community is allowing an awareness of culture, imbalances, needs, and answers that are largely unfiltered by authority figures. Resources are more likely to find the right place to be applied, whether it is tents to disaster victims, or the light of discourse applied to ignorance. People are communicating without waiting for permission. They are becoming spontaneously curious.

Overlooked wisdom my finally find receptive audiences. People who steered from the mainstream to find the source and the fundamentals of consciousness may find crowds following their path. Frugal folk may be surprised to find that, their struggles, their forced or chosen resourcefulness, may be seen as a valuable resource and the focus of engaged curiosities. I hope that local farmers and artisans aren’t dismissed because they’re just down the road. An expert is anyone from out of town, but not really. Experts live amongst us and are us. Finding such resources close is wonderfully convenient.

Curiosities, noses on windows, are getting people out of their houses, into their neighborhoods, and into other lifestyles, communities, and cultures. Occasionally we’ll smudge the glass a bit, or surprise someone by walking into their space, but I think the benefits far outweigh the costs. Really, it doesn’t take much to clean a nose print off the glass. Let’s lean forward and learn from what we see.

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Individuals Effort

Posted on April 27, 2011 by Tom Trimbath

It can be lonely out there. Decisions to make. Chores and errands that no one else can accomplish. Beyond that are global issues that are so large that just looking at them can overwhelm an individual. I can be overwhelmed looking at any home repair project that involves electricity. Individual efforts, especially ones with a bit of help from another individual, can accomplish much, whether that is changing the world or changing a life.

There’s a dance practice every Tuesday night at Bayview Hall, which is useless to anyone from outside the area, but it is very handy for local dancers, like me, who are practicing things that aren’t taught in classes. Some people want new moves. I want to get better at reading my dance partner’s flow. Everyone is different, and are frequently unaware of what their difference is. Some turn better to the left than the right without knowing it. Some want to spin once, twice, thrice, or not at all. Some prefer closed position to open. For two hours every Tuesday night I get to practice reading my follow (I’m the lead so my partner’s the follow. Get it?) while someone else is practicing pivot turns, or basic footwork, or just having fun. And yes, there are people who have to practice having fun.

The practices happen because we, an unofficial group of dancers, occasionally meet and decide on roles, schedules and pricing. Someone interacts with the Board of the hall. Someone puts up the flyers. Someone puts out the emails. Someone plays the music. Someone sets up and cleans up. And we all chip in. (Don’t we? nudge, nudge) It is not a group effort. It is a collection of individual efforts. We have fun and raise some money for an eighty year old rural dance hall. (By the way, the practices are open to the public: ~ 6:30-8:30, $5, smiles and laughs are encouraged.)

Practice ends before the local supermarket closes, so I usually go shopping afterwards. Last night I ran into a fine fellow who was loading up his panniers before bicycling his food back home. In one of those quick grocery line conversations I mentioned that I’d used similar equipment on my ride across America and he pointed out that he was training for a charity bicycle trip down to San Francisco (S2SF :: 2011) that will raise funds for the Ndoto Project. The project is about empowering youth in Africa. It is also about someone, an individual, having an idea and pursuing it.

I know others that have started movements, initiatives, and businesses. It is easy to look back at any notable endeavor and talk about it as an abstraction by considering the actions of the group. Look back far enough though and there’s usually a time when an inspiration struck one or two people doing something completely different, or sitting with a cup of tea or glass of beer. They decided to act and good things happened.

The Ndoto Project may expand or inspire. As I type this the web site describes the goal of getting five young Kenyans into college. Maybe it will grow to help more. Maybe it’s main accomplishments will result from the efforts of five educated Kenyans.

Grand plans are worth pursuing. So are efforts closer to home.

As of 2000 the most common household type was “single”. Been there. Am there. Not my preferred situation, but that is the way it is.

Single people, especially as they get older, can’t do everything. I’m lucky enough to have a network of friends to call. It isn’t the same as having someone in the next room, but it is far better than trying to do everything with only one pair of hands. Someone calls and I help with moving furniture. I call and someone helps me with a bit of wiring. A few of us have experienced panic attacks (which I am convinced is a phase middle-aged men go through, but that is rarely discussed because of derisive comments about mid-life crisis), and it is powerful and helpful to have someone who will pick up the phone just to listen and talk.

My skills are not in carpentry, wiring, or plumbing, but evidently sometimes I can listen and ask the right questions. In this digital world I’ve also helped friends with simple computer problems, have translated internet jargon, and have passed along basic Facebook and email etiquette. My hands may not get as messy, but evidently I’ve helped clean up bits for others. (I still refer anything substantial to the professionals like Gail at The Tranquil Computer.)

Many of us are alone, in a variety of ways. There are people within marriages that feel alone because their partner can’t understand something they are going through, even something good. At times like that, the partner or the partners can reach out to another. It can be too difficult to be alone, but if two people can start Microsoft, and two people can start Apple, then two friends should be able to sort through how to invest an inheritance, and two other friends should be able to install a woodstove, and two other people help each other get through bad day. And maybe two can help each other and then help a third.

A friend lamented, and I agreed, that life shouldn’t be this rough. That complaint is probably as old as language. Maybe it was one of the first phrases shouted when a hungry ancestor missed a meal because the arrow went wide. But we’ve gotten this far because of our individual efforts. Thanks for all the help, and call if you need a hand.

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