History echoes. It is too easy to let no news be interpreted as negative news. Humans are so good at reading between the lines that entire grand narratives can fit between two paragraphs of a press release, in the gap between the difference between a plural versus the singular version of a noun or verb. Today, MicroVision released some news, not enough for some, and the price and enthusiasm suffered – at least for today.
Today, MicroVision announced long-anticipated earnings. Would there be a surprise because of something happening quietly in the background? Would management reveal, or at least suggest, or even just tease about buyouts or partnerships or orders? Judging from the stock price after hours, management managed to deliver lots of disappointment regardless of their intent. This isn’t the first time stockholders were dismayed when reality didn’t meet expectations. I leave it to those involved to decide if their enthusiasm misled them, or if management did.
As I decided to write this post I remembered a similar one from several years ago. It wasn’t about earnings. It was about MicroVision’s performance at a massive trade show. There was great anticipation. Lots of ‘wink, wink, nudge, nudge’. Big things were about to happen. And nothing did. At least nothing public, significant, quantitative, and positive.
That big event/non-event prompted me to write “No News Is No News“. The feeling is so similar that rather than rewrite it, I’ll post it again.
I’m sure some stockholder who was there can recount the tale. I just recall the feeling. Ask around on the discussion boards.
One tidbit: The stock price was about $1.20. I wrote the blog on January 11, 2014.
Another tidbit: A few days ago I tweeted a recent series of updates.
In the last ten days MVIS has bounced between just over $10 to just under $30. After hours it is around $14. Last night one friend suggested it would go to $0.50, because it was about that a year ago. I think the company can be worth ~$76 for a specific scenario which is unlikely because a merger isn’t determined by the value of the company but by the offer that is sufficient to gain a majority of the votes of the shares (not the same as the shareholders – see PIXR’s example in my book, Dream. Invest. Live.) Short squeezes are argued to be able to reach three digits, with some suggesting four digit prices. Shorts and others are rumored to be able to drive it ridiculously low. Pick a number from under a dollar to over a thousand dollars and there’s someone who will agree with you.
And yet, there’s no real news. NDAs and such can be frustrating, but the shareholders, the owners of shares of the company, want to know things like: A) Is MicroVision supplying components to Hololens? B) Is MicroVision supplying components to IVAS? C) Are other customers working in similar products? D) Are customers working on buying display components for other products? E) How many customers are actively incorporating LiDAR units in vehicles? F) How many customers are actively incorporating consumer LiDAR units into products? G) Are any other customers serious about other MicroVision products? H) How many companies are negotiating to buy some or all of MicroVision? And no, I’m not going to ask because years of experiencing professional obfuscation have convinced me that asking it a waste of time.
So, if people can’t find answers, they’ll make them up.
I’ll repeat what I tweeted, with some notes. The risk to the company has significantly been reduced, again.
1) $50M added a few months ago. (Whew.)
2) Very high probability of supplying Hololens & IVAS. (But not guaranteed)
3) LiDAR milestone cleared. (Sales in Q3/Q4. Ah.)
4) and the other possibilities supply hope.
5) And add, the buyout possibility continues.
6) And I hope the company remains independent and become highly profitable, and the stock reflects that – soon.
A stockholder who has only begun their investment endeavor asked how we long term shareholders hang in there through such wild swings as we’ve seen this month. Take a look at the chart in detail back to the 90s through several episodes of MVIS’ history. Expectations remain high. Technological, business, marketing, and public awareness all continue to improve. The story is improving. There are no guarantees, there isn’t enough news, but it helps to concentrate on the progress of the company, not the swings in the stock.
This does feel like an echo, but instead of a cave or a canyon, it feels more like a more refined space where good things are about to happen. But, hey! Management! We’re getting tired of reverb and some stagehand saying “check, check.”
your friend is right