One Level Lower – Revenue and Market Cap

Posted on January 4, 2014 by Tom Trimbath

It’s so cheap it can’t go down much further. Not, not, one of the best reasons to buy a stock. Regardless of the price, unless it is trading at absolute zero, any stock can drop the same amount, 100%. Finding the true value of anything usually means looking beyond the labels and facades most people casually witness. In stocks, two things I see beyond the price are the Revenues and the Market Cap. Together they’re better judges of whether a stock is cheap. Together they are a source of optimism for my portfolio.

If you haven’t already, wander through the stock synopses I posted as part of my semi-annual exercise. Notice in each that I start with data before words (after the disclaimer, of course.)
AMSC (Market Cap was $0.160B is $0.106B)
GERN (Market Cap was $0.196B is $0.611B)
GIG (Market Cap was $0.028B is $0.033B)
MVIS (Market Cap was $0.064B is $0.042B)
RSOL (Market Cap was $0.068B is $0.110B)
Yes, I follow the stock prices for daily swings, even though I prefer to trade on the span of years. But, when I want to check my individual investments I check the Market Caps. Market Cap is short for Market Capitalization, which is nothing fancier than the price of the stock times the number of shares. Simple enough, but the added influence of the number of shares brings a lot more information to a single number.

Stock prices rise and fall dramatically enough that entire media outlets can spend every minute of the day reporting on the moves of the thousands of publicly traded companies. It is entertaining, and mostly moot because most of the motion is noise. If there’s no news, there’s no real reason to change the price; except that the markets are designed to make sure the prices move so the money continues to flow. Handy, but a bit silly too.

If the number of shares of the company never changed, then the price would be a good long term measure of the company’s progress. But for almost every company, the number of shares changes every year. When managers and employees receive enough shares as compensation, more shares must be issued. Financing sometimes involves additional shares being created and sold. Stock splits are the most obvious change because they usually involve a doubling or a halving of the share count. The price halves or doubles appropriately, but only the stock changes. The company remains the same company. Ideally, the Market Cap is a constant before and after the split. That’s true of the compensation packages too, but the influence there is usually a few percent, and easy to miss.

I particularly notice Market Cap because I invest in small companies before they are profitable. Besides debt, the main way a lot of them stay in business is to pay the bills by selling shares. Bit by bit they sell more shares and slowly dilute the price of the stock. Track the Market Cap and the dilution can become more apparent even if the price stays the same.

Market Cap alone isn’t very useful other than for long term comparisons, though it can put things in perspective. GigOptix’s Market Cap is a bit more than $30,000,000. There are probably houses that go for that much. I know there are boats in the price range, and some custom airplanes probably spend that on furnishings, or engines, or paint jobs.

The other number I watch for any company that is actually selling something, not just ideas and prototypes, is Revenue. Earnings and profits are wonderful, but they are also subjected to more bookkeeping tricks. Revenue tends to the truer to the business of business. If Revenues are increasing faster than expenses, then profitability is inevitable (as long as extrapolation holds).

Put the two numbers together in a ratio, Market Cap over Revenue and you basically have the Price to Sales ratio. How much does it cost to buy a company that is bringing in a dollar in sales? If you look as profits as a way to pay back your investment, then the lower the Price to Sales ratio, the shorter the time to recover your investment. Of course, as shareholders we’re only buying a small slice of the company, and the sales only come all the way through if there are dividends, but the idea maintains its merit.

In general, companies that are expected to have high profit margins start off with high Price to Sales ratios. I typically use P/S  ~ 6 for high-tech. Steady, boring companies have lower ratios. Construction may be P/S < 1.

So go back and look at those numbers above. GIG and MVIS have similar Market Caps, so they’d seem to be similar companies, and they are. They are both electronic component manufacturers with disruptive technologies. I think a P/S = 6 is actually too low for them because the Present Value of their Future Revenues Discounted for Risk is much higher than their current sales. Yet, the company with the smaller Market Cap, GigOptix, has a P/S = 1.15 while the “bigger” company, MicroVision, has a P/S = 6.23. That’s because GigOptix is making about six times as much money as MicroVision. The irony being that part of GigOptix’s success is because they bought some of MicroVision’s cast-off technology. Solely based on that comparison, GIG is a better investment than MVIS. (It also suggests that, at the time, GIG’s managers understood MVIS’s technology better than MVIS did.) The real story is always more complex, but simply looking at their stock prices wouldn’t reveal the potential that either GIG is priced too low or MVIS is priced too high. (The more complex story is that GigOptix may get higher profit margins but that MicroVision may tap an much larger market.)

And here’s where the storied stock that is MVIS  settles out. The stock reacts to rumor and speculation, disappointment and delay. Within the last five years MVIS has ranged from a high of over $40 to a low below $2. Yet, because of market dilution and stock splits, the story is harder to track unless you look at market cap, which still shows variation, but much less than what the price sees.
MVIS market cap in $billions
12/27/13    .041
6/30/13    .064
12/31/12    .048
6/30/12    .027
12/31/11     .042
6/30/11     .128
12/31/10     .177
6/30/10     .263
12/31/09     .244
6/30/09     .190
12/31/08     .11
07/01/08     .16
12/31/07     .094
06/30/07     .20
12/31/06     .126
06/30/06     .049

MVIS is trading below $2. It can be hard to believe it will go much lower, but I keep in mind that using the pre-split numbers today’s price would be one-eighth of what the ticker shows. More like $0.20 than $2.00. And that the Market Cap is essentially the same as it was in June of 2006. But the number I really keep in mind is what MicroVision’s Market Cap can be considering the Revenue they may generate. If a company can generate $1,000,000,000 in revenue, then daily fluctuations on the scale of $30,000,000 would barely make the news. They wouldn’t make enough noise.

The price is the easiest thing to read about is the easiest thing to talk about, but looking one layer lower may produce a much more valuable story. And that is true of much more than just stocks.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Semi Annual Exercise EOY 2013

Posted on December 31, 2013 by Tom Trimbath

Back by popular demand, but mostly because I do this anyway, it’s my semi-annual review of my stocks. For over a decade I’ve ended every June and December with a simple exercise: in a few sentences, well, maybe a few paragraphs, explain the company behind the stock, why I have the stock, what I think the company can do, and how I think things are going. It is an exercise inspired by Peter Lynch (author of One Up On Wall Street). If you can’t explain why you’ve got it, maybe you shouldn’t own it. I suspect that is true of any possession – though that would make a tough requirement for any first-time home buyer. Welcome to my opinions, lightly supported with facts, that explain to me, why I own what I own and what I may do differently.

A quick description of my strategy, analyses, and attitude is back in my previous Exercise. The shorthand is LTBH, PV of FR x %risk, and Buy Small Sell Large. Otherwise known as Long Term Buy and Hold (typically for years), Present Value of Future Revenue Discounted for Risk, and Buy stock in Small companies and Sell them when they are large. Want a longer discussion? Book me as a speaker, hire me as a consultant, buy my book (Dream. Invest. Live.), Dream. Invest. Live. or maybe just buy me a very good lunch. Despite considerable consideration, decades of experience, patience, and diversification and a short while as a millionaire, my current finances are poor enough that I’m surprised I didn’t qualify for Washington’s subsidized health care.

Amongst a whispered chorus of “I Told You So”, I simultaneously feel dismay and enthusiasm. I feel both emotions because I’ve been investing for almost 40 years. Stocks go up and down and seeking logic to describe their motions is usually an exercise in rationalization, not methodical explanation. If you read the synopses (which are available below via links to other discussion boards, where the conversations serve more than just my web traffic) you’ll probably see that pessimism and optimism mixed.

For my optimism, I needed no more confirmation that what I wrote back at the end of June.

I am heartened.

My portfolio possibilities can far exceed any financial influences of mortgage modifications.

  • Currently, my portfolio is enough to pay off my credit card debt, but would leave only a few thousand for emergence funds and my retirement account.
  • If all of the stocks reached P/S = 6 at current revenues and products, I’d have enough to catch up on the mortgage and even pay off the credit card debt. This is close to what I consider a conservative rational market valuation. It assumes no growth.
  • The same is true if two of the disruptive stocks, MVIS and GERN, reached market caps of $1B. Then, I’d also have enough for a few more years of living expenses.
  • If they all reached market caps of $1B, I’d have enough, that if necessary, I could pay off all of my debt and still have savings. This is reasonable if the market was valuing companies and stocks based on the present value of future revenues, which does not seem to be happening for such small companies – though that may be changing.
  • As I said, valuing disruptive companies is difficult. While my estimates for MVIS are in the incredibly modest range of $640 (only $80 pre-split for you knowledgeable in MVIS), others estimate as high as $1,500. At that price my portfolio is so much greater than enough that philanthropy can become a wonderful occupation.
  • If GERN matches MVIS’s success, well, it will be time to give away lots of money.

So goes the money story. Of the list, only one scenario leaves me with my current worries. I considered such a scenario to be unbelievably unlikely, yet here it sits.

I am also disheartened.

I wrote that only one scenario left me with my current (June 2013) worries, and that it was unlikely, yet that is where my portfolio remains. Luckily, my consulting and non-profit support business is doing much better.

And yet I am heartened.

The companies are making progress, and so are some of the stocks. AMSC is up almost six-fold. GERN has tripled. RSOL has almost doubled. Unfortunately, I had to sell half of my GERN just before it surged again. As encouraging as that sounds, on balance with my other stocks, GIG and MVIS, my portfolio has not appreciated enough to return my finances to anything that suggests taking more time off. Seven days a week remains my work schedule.

AMSC proceeds with its products and its court case. Geron’s clinical trial data is encouraging, especially the part about returning bone marrow to a healthy state. GigOptix’s highest end products should be gaining traction in the market, and the stock is about one-fourth of my conservative estimate. MicroVision really could be very close to delivering on its potentially, really, really, anytime now, right? Real Goods Solar trudges along, my most conservative holding, and yet its competitor has multiples that are more than 30 times higher. There is room for dramatic improvements in each of those stocks.

As I’ve said before, the likelihood that they will all succeed is small; as is the likelihood that they will all fail. And yet, in the meantime, there they sit.

Investing is based on logic, data, and judgment. The results include luck even though we never like to acknowledge luck’s role. The only way my money can make money is for me to invest it, and to invest responsibly means regular care and attention even when things are a bit achy and don’t seem to want to move. Patience and exercise, because, well, they don’t cost much and can have impressive consequences when given enough time.

Here are the links to the discussion boards I use. Feel free to comment here or there, and to pass along links to others. The bigger the discussion, the better the chance of valuable insights (as long as the trolls and flamers are moderated appropriately.) Congratulations to those who are using the same exercise. I hope it is working for you too.

Investor Village
AMSC
GERN
GIG
MVIS
RSOL

The Motley Fool
AMSC
GERN
MVIS
RSOL
Economy and Markets

Silicon Investor
AMSC
GERN
GIG
MVIS

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Optimism And Pessimism Dance

Posted on December 28, 2013 by Tom Trimbath

Nearly the end of the year. So much to do. So much to review. Past and present bumping into each other as if they are dancing to two different songs. Past wisdom shows signs of relief. Hard work may begin paying off for many. Present wisdom is split between the optimists and pessimists. I write this, watching thoughts from both dance inside my head, nudging each other as I try to pick a topic. Their dissonance is the song many of my friends hear. Will it resolve into a harmony or dissolve into discordance? We won’t know until we’ve lived through it. I wish there was one clear message but one chorus is clear, people are hoping for a Happy New Year.

My life has improved considerably since last year. At the end of last December I was dealing with the emotional shock of not being able to pay the mortgage and very glad for a small sign of hope from client who would pay enough for food and fuel, if not housing and health care. This December I have more work than I can handle, maybe enough to pay a modified mortgage, and yet not so much more that I can relax (thanks especially to HCLEHCLE and NRMNRM logo). My contracted work is good, but far from a rate that will appease all, which isn’t surprising because non-profits aren’t known for high wages (except for the mega-non-profits, but that’s another story.) I’ve been working hard enough that they have names for the days I’ve taken off since June: The Fourth of July, Labor Day, Thanksgiving, and Christmas. I’m not even sure I’m taking off New Year’s Eve because it may be the only time I have to manage invoices and get ready for taxes. Take those two years of data points, negative cash flow and possibly balanced cash flow, and extrapolate and next December could even show a surplus.

Many of my friends are in similar situations. Their businesses are busier than ever, which means more revenue than ever, but their profit margins may be so low that they’ve traded a higher workload for not enough extra money. Ah, but a better profit margin in 2014 with some growth in revenues and – hallelujah! – maybe enough to pay for things that have been put off for years.

Or not.

I’d love to paint a perfectly positive picture for 2014, but many of my friends are old enough to notice that something is different. Yes, the economy seems to be recovering. But there are a lot of buts. The stock markets are up, but most of the money is going to people who don’t do anything with it except accumulate more. Unemployment is down, but at lower wages and with people holding more than one job. The real estate market is improving (want to buy my house?), but it may be artificial because many of the urban sales have been to corporations that are turning the houses back into rentals with unreasonable expectations.

Shopping for a home?

Or, change is happening in the best way possible.

People are getting out of debt. The Occupy Movement has found a way to cancel debt for 5% of the value. The total value of all of US mortgages is declining. Regardless of the size of the average house, a growing portion of the population is quietly and dramatically challenging the assumptions of house size by advocating and living in houses the size of some master bedroom suites. The Affordable Care Act may be attempting to decrease health care costs, and folks are signing up; but I am more impressed with the number of people who are proactively deciding to eat healthily and exercise more. Those people who can’t get a regular 40 hour a week job are redefining careers and worklife, mostly out of necessity; but with paradigm shifting results.

My concern is that we may be working hard, fixing our systems’ flaws, and adapting to new lifestyles, but at a rate that is too slow and at a time that is too late.

Working seven days a week was a reliable path out of a bad situation. But income and wealth inequities may be so entrenched and extreme that working every day means nothing more than not having any days off.
Even if you make more than you spend, investing may have fundamentally changed with the deregulation of the late 90’s. Maybe it is no longer reasonable to expect an individual investor to be able to compete against institutions that carve through mountains to enable trades that are just a few nanoseconds quicker.
Those of us in America may have to save our country from decades of ideological mis-financing. The ideologues seem to have lost most of the recent battles, but whether they should’ve won or lost, taxpayers and citizens are left with the responsibility for returning the country to fiscal health.

I am pleased with my progress through the year, and as many have said, I am eager for a Happy 2014. I am also aware that many of those same people who are eager for a Happier New Year say so with a tone in their voice, or a posture and gesture in their body language that suggests that they have doubts. For many years people have said, next year will be better. Optimism sustains us – especially when pessimism has proven us wrong so far

My optimism remains. Yes, the financial system is due for a collapse, but I suspect we’ll build something better (and I wonder what that will do to my mortgage.) Yes, the global climate is changing. To suggest otherwise is to suggest printing the Farmer’s Almanac once and repeating it every year. And we will adapt; especially, because coastal cities are quickly switching from debating words to erecting defenses – and going greener. I even think health care costs will come down because such inefficiencies are unsustainable and because eventually people realize it is not just cheaper but more fun to be healthy.

As to whether my portfolio will recover, my good business will become much better, my health continues to improve, and my appreciation of life appreciate – well, yes, I expect all of that to happen, and more. But in the meantime, I think I’ll sit in front of a movie for a while. This mental and emotional dancing has tired me out.

For those of you investing in stocks, stay tuned for my semi-annual review of my stocks and the market. I’ve already started writing it up, and plan to post it on December 31st after the market closes. There’s a lot of hope in there, and if life lives up to that hope, there’ll be a lot of dancing and a big sigh of relief.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

One Confused ObamaCare Applicant

Posted on December 23, 2013 by Tom Trimbath

Affordable Care Act, ObamaCare, whatever. Health care costs are scary. A couple of months ago, and a year ago, I’ve made the trip to the island’s emergency room, thirty miles up-island. Both times, as I watched impressive people tend and care for an injured friend, I’ve also been aware that, even with my health insurance, such an accident would bankrupt me. Finally, America was going to have a better plan that took care of people with financial difficulties. The media makes it sound easy, if you can log in. Here’s the messy details of one person’s attempt at signing up.

All I knew was what I’d read in the news. That isn’t always a help. A typical person should expect this or that, but no one is actually typical. I can hear the head nods from here. So, I knew that whatever I encountered would require lots of note-taking and time stamps so I could backtrack, and also to have a record if I had to contact Help. If the literary nature isn’t up to your expectations, well, welcome to the reality of bureaucracy.

12/20/2013
20:15
Despite the official names, everyone was calling it ObamaCare. What little I’d heard from friends was that they were likely to be directed to Medicaid. Not surprising considering that Medicaid is supposedly for people near the poverty line and a lot of my friends are self-employed, sole-proprietors, or artists.

As if keeping track of the names wasn’t odd enough, Washington State has something called Apple Health, which made it sound like I’m supposed to be an employee of a computer company, or involved in a crop protection plan.

One of the first questions: Monthly income, er, based on what? 2012, 2013, last month?
Someone warned me that my application may have to be re-assessed every month that my income varies by more than $150. Well, that sounds like a monthly chore, or a reason to always pay myself exactly the same each month – if possible.

The site says I’ll probably end up with Medicaid if my annual income is less that $15,856. Before tax? No. After tax, well, it could be.
Ah, but the subsidized insurance kicks in if my annual income is less than $45,960. I’m definitely under that level. That’s the first bit of good news.

Coverage covers ER. That’s another bit of good news.

OK, go find 2012 tax returns before I launch in, just in case.
Dredge up my TurboTax username, password; the eternal struggle
Right, got the number.

Bring up Washington Healthplanfinder.
The site invites me to Find and Compare or Apply for Coverage or Sign In
I’ll Find and Compare because it is on top
Next Find Quality Coverage (but what if I want quantity instead of quality)
Gotta have SSN, birthday, income. See, thinking ahead was handy.

20:35
Find Quality Coverage
For my zip code and income, evidently my current plan isn’t even on the list. That’s okay because they’d just raised my rate by about $100.
But, all the plans are more expensive than the increase I expect to see in my current plan.
Ah, but the tax credits make even the most expensive cheaper than my current bill.
And I get to pick my doctor or hospital. Both are 30 miles away but it let me add Whidbey General anyway.

Choices choices.
HMO vs PPO? I don’t know.
A Goldielocks moment. Gold is too expensive. Bronze has too high of a deductible. Silver is less than I am spending now and has a lower deductible. I think.
Mouse overs and info buttons are vague enough to be useless.

Dive into the dreaded More Details
Ah, what’s Not Covered: Eye and Dental. Rats.

The list is 27 plans long, but there seems to be a lot of duplication under different names.
Multi-State Plan Blue Cross Silver 2500 HSA
LifeWise Essential Silver 2500 HSA
Premera Blue Cross Preferred Silver 2500 HSA
20:57
Group Health – Core Silver
Multi-State Plan Blue Cross Silver 3000
LifeWise Essential Silver 3000
Ah, in the details there are lots of N/As = not good, particularly for Group Health, as I read it.
Premera Blue Cross Preferred Silver 3000
Multi-State Plan Blue Cross Silver 2000
LifeWise Essential Silver 2000
Premera Blue Cross Preferred Silver 2000

So, reorder them because I think I see a code.

Multi-State Plan Blue Cross Silver 2500 HSA
Multi-State Plan Blue Cross Silver 3000
Multi-State Plan Blue Cross Silver 2000

LifeWise Essential Silver 2500 HSA
LifeWise Essential Silver 3000
LifeWise Essential Silver 2000

Premera Blue Cross Preferred Silver 2500 HSA
Premera Blue Cross Preferred Silver 3000
Premera Blue Cross Preferred Silver 2000

Group Health – Core Silver

Compare three that only vary by number, not by name.
Ah, so the coverage doesn’t change but the money does.

21:11
Now, compare across for the same 2500 or 3000 or 2000
Ah Ha! HSA means something Health Savings Account.
Exact same details.

Oh, and Group Health doesn’t like Out of Network and an island is more likely not to be networked.

Down to six: the 2000s and 3000s in two flavors of Premera and one flavor of Lifewise.
An extra $20/month knocks my deductible down by $1,000 and is still almost $100 less than my existing plan.

Okay, I’ve narrowed it down to the Silver 2000s, but can’t see any difference between them.
21:25 That’s enough of that. It’s late. There are two more days to figure this out. No need to hurt my brain.

12/21/2013
Back to working on signing up for health care after a day of working on the computer.

19:00
Is the tax credit only paid out in 2015 for 2014?
“this tax credit provides you the option to either reduce the amount of your monthly health insurance premium; or have a lump sum deduction when you file your annual income tax return”
Wow, a useful FAQ. Thanks folks.

Okay, where’d my doctor go?
The hospital doesn’t mention her, but the WA.gov site does.
Whidbey General = select (because, on the island, we’re really limited to the monopoly of the one hospital)

Glad I took notes last night. What did I decide on?

Go to Premera’s site to figure out the difference between Multi-State and Preferred, because I can’t tell the difference on the State’s site. That doesn’t work, but they have a phone number. Ah, they’re not working tonight.
So, go to the definitive source: Facebook – where, as luck provided, someone asked the right question, they happened to be a friend, and they got a good answer.
“The only difference is that the PBC Preferred plans include coverage for elective termination of pregnancy while the Multistate plans do not.” Not an issue for me.

So, what’s the difference between Lifewise and Premera?
From WAhealth.com (on Google’s Search page)
” Lifewise (a Premera subsidiary) is the leader in catastrophic plans. … network is identical, and other than branding, there is little difference between the two.”
Oddly enough, that description was on the blurb beneath the search term on Google, but I couldn’t find it on the official site.

So, which one sounds better, or looks better on an insurance card?
LifeWise Essential Silver 2000
Premera Blue Cross Preferred Silver 2000
I’ll take the second one.

Ok, ready to go, but there’s a letter from my current provider back home. I should check it first. Who knows, maybe they’ll make me a better offer. Hey, I’m an optimist.

But first, register to beat the WA deadline.
Pain in butt, username rules, yet another username with yet a different set of rules.
try #2
try #3
I’m too tired to come up with a password.
try #4
Finally, a password they’ll accept. The rules are convoluted enough that I won’t be able to remember that. Time to Copy & Paste.
“Do you want to apply for Health Insurance Premium Tax Credit, cost-sharing reductions or Washington Apple Health?” That is the point, isn’t it?
Quit now before I hurt my brain.
19:49

12/22/2013
username and password fail
Access Denied
Due to multiple incorrect attempts, your account has been locked. Contact the Washington Healthplanfinder Customer Support Center to unlock the account at 1-855-WAFINDER (1-855-923-4633) between the hours of 7:30AM and 8PM for help.
We are currently closed.
So much for meeting that deadline.

12/23/2013
8:39
Hurray! Password reset received in the night by email.
Must reset
try #1
Ah ha! The same password I tried to use before was actually an Invalid password. Tell me that the first time, eh.
try #2
Success! Oh wait, all of that was just to set up an account. I haven’t done any real work yet.

Okay, I can go to Dashboard, which was a circular link or learn more which is a video, or – Home?
Clicking on my name – takes me back to the same screen.
1-855-923-4633 Experiencing high call volumes and unable to take your call at this time.
So start back with WAhealthplanfinder.
No good.
Sign out then sign in.
Does password reset require logging out then logging in?
Go To Home Page shows that I am still logged in.
Close window, oh why not close browser, and try again.

Breathe.

8:55
invalid password
Loading HBE application
Ah, Complete My Application – and don’t complain about not knowing how it finally got through.

9:00
According to them I lived on 40TH? When and where was that? Sometime since I’ve moved to Washington I lived on 40th. I’ve lived in Washington for 33 years. That’s a lot of addresses. Even in the last ten years I’ve probably lived in four. I don’t memorize such things. Pick, None of the Above

Fill in more details, like insurance info.

Monthly income, but for when? The previous pages asked for annual, so I assumed they wanted Federal Tax data, but monthly income sounds more current.

It takes three tries to get the employment forms filled out right because I am self-employed and misread one line.

Speaking of self-employment I hit Submit My Application – in a rush because I am doing this during working hours. If I am filling out forms, I am not billing hours.

9:16
I’m eligible. Great. But I haven’t signed up for anything yet.

Back to the screen where I did all the research.
I trust my research, so I should just be able to pick and apply, but I also don’t like to make assumptions. Sure enough, the plans look the same but the numbers are different. The deductibles are much higher. I’m starting to lose the benefit that I saw earlier.
I’m approaching the deadline with no indication of how many more hours this may take. Click now, change later if necessary. Besides, my situation may improve or change.
Premera Blue Cross Preferred Silver 2000
Gulp. The new price no longer includes the monthly rebate and is $200 more than last month’s payment.

Maybe the rebate is applied at the end, like discount codes when shopping online.

9:19
Click Buy.
Pay by eCheck or debit or credit – No personal checks allowed?
Grr, I hate giving someone direct access to my account. It is too easy for someone else to accidentally drain what little money I have.

Where’s the tax rebate? I must trust the system.

Gulp. That has to be paid today! I must trust the system.

So much for the monthly tax rebate. Looks like I’m spending more every month. A benefit next year may be too late considering I’m trying to save my house from foreclosure now.

Must post a warning to Facebook.
“Warning. I just signed up for health care, looking forward to the lower payments, but found no box for the tax assistance. Instead of a ~$300 monthly tax credit applied to my premium, I’m spending even more than the increased rate from my old plan. And yes, this will be a blog post – after I’ve calmed down.”
9:30 Throat clenched. And now have to go to work two extra days per month. I’m already working seven days a week, and I’ve luxuriously taken three days off since the Fourth of July. They were the Fourth of July, Labor Day, and Thanksgiving. In other words, I’ve lost ground, lost time, and lost money – and working harder to catch up, well, that can’t be healthy.

A friend has told me in the past that many of misfortunes have come about from trusting too deeply. Another put it that, from my description, I’ve been betrayed before, even if I don’t use the word. I still don’t use the word, but I do admit that I fell like I’ve witnessed a bait and switch. Maybe this will be resolved, but whether it is or isn’t, how many thousands of people are having a similar experience? At least for now, I’ll pay the extra, be glad that I’ve practiced frugality for decades, and wonder at the strange trip we are in.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , | 8 Comments

Free Wish List 2013

Posted on December 21, 2013 by Tom Trimbath

Here it is the Saturday before Christmas, in a year that’s been so intense that I celebrated having an entire hour off a few evenings ago. Ah, the glory. The flurry of shopping is another world, vaguely remembered. I’m even late compiling my wish list. This close to the holiday there isn’t much time to buy and ship, nor is there much time for anyone to check my list and whether I’ve been naughty or nice (unless you have a source at the NSA). So, skip the traditional list of things shipped in boxes with bows. I put together a list of what I really want. Hardly any of it fits under the tree, but happily, little of it costs anything except those most precious commodities: time and good will. And they are things that many others may enjoy, too.

Do you want a list of things that can be wrapped? Sure, I’d like a new computer (this one has a cracked case, a dodgy logic board, and missing screw), briefcase (holes big enough for mice), teapot (an odd couple of pot and lid), microwave (or bread box), monitor (which doesn’t always turn on or off). While we’re at it, a new range, dishwasher, fence, windows, roof, woodstove, and kitchen sink; but 1) they don’t fit under the tree, and 2) if I lose my house I’d lose those gifts.

I’ve enjoyed plenty of the plenty that I’ve been provided with over the decades. The most memorable things were a commuter mug, a Leatherman, commissioned sculpture, lots of DVDs – (pause, while I reminisce) – thick socks, a hiking jacket, a waterproof kayaking fannypack; do we detect a theme here? It must be because I haven’t been hiking, skiing, or paddling for a while. Food and drink have been equally memorable; particularly the scotch and anything that was handmade.

But as I sat, trying to break free of my frugal mode, I realized that there were many things I’ve appreciated more.

Writers enjoy readers. Authors enjoy sales. Positive feedback can bring on a glow. Public positive feedback is awesome. Honest, enthusiastic reviews are very welcome on goodreads, amazon, and barnesandnoble – and of course, Oprah’s ear would be a good place for a good review. And my favorite review was worth more than the rest. A friend told me that I’d written just what they needed to read, the way they need it told, when they need it said. That can be worth years of work.

Artists like patrons, and sometimes survive because of them. One of my favorites was the woman who became quite quiet while looking at Scatchet Sunset,DSC_2779 and after a pause turned and told me that it left her with a feeling of serenity. She almost got that one for free. Another was a young woman who couldn’t afford to buy art, but who walked in, found an image she loved, gazed at it, and broke into tears. She walked away before I had a chance to react, but her reaction has stayed with me since.

Speakers like audiences. Teachers like students. Consultants like clients. Being paid for my time, experience, insight and effort is gratifying – and is what may keep my house out of foreclosure; but helping people connect with others and ideas to their mutual benefit is something I’ve done and look forward to doing for no pay (but the pay is kind of necessary right now.) The woman from France who scooted into my office to hug me when her self-published book arrived better than she expected, the look of realization that shines through as someone becomes aware of some nugget of knowledge or opportunity they didn’t know they had, the project that finally broke free from a slightly different nudge, all are gifts that I treasure.

Life does exist outside my business, but as I work to regain financial independence there’s been little time for Life. And in those moments, it has been a joy to watch friends organize bicycle rides for school kids, struggling families find a feast at the food bank partly due to the gleaners, and of course, the fun made real by my friends who’ve organized dances.

On a larger scale, there are a few things that caught my attention that make me smile as I pass them along.

  • Write A House is, believe it or not, “a twist on the ‘Writer’s Residency.’ In this case, the writer is simply given the house, forever.” Now, that’s residency! And something that can be done in more cities (and maybe on an island).
  • Karma Kitchen, which puts Pay It Forward to work, and it works. You don’t pay for your meal. You pay for the next person’s meal. Yes, the world can work this way.
  • Give Back Films has even made a series of videos of people pulling stunts of random kindness and senseless acts of beauty. An extra dollar delivers much more than a smile.

I am a traditionalist, and yes, I find myself reacting to the sight of the empty space beneath the tree; but, I’m older now, and have been getting rid of stuff by choice and out of necessity. This year, I’m looking forward to Christmas because I will share it with a dear friend, and I’ll have a great excuse to cook up a feast of ham and fixings, that will turn into leftovers, omelets, chef salads, sandwiches, and lentil soup. In the pantry are a sweet set of gluten-free baking mixes, and in cold storage is some excellent fruit, and there are still days to go before the cooking begins.

Maybe it is age. Maybe it is awareness. I see fewer packages and more invites to events. Maybe the recent financial turmoil has reawaken an appreciation for the basics that we can provide each other that can’t be bought: time and good will. Hug, dance, smile, talk, listen, and enjoy the season.

(But be sure, if I found a gift-wrapped bottle of scotch under the tree I wouldn’t return it.)

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Frugal Frustrations

Posted on December 18, 2013 by Tom Trimbath

I found a variation on one of my writer’s acronyms: IIHMTIWHMIS If I Had More Time I Would Have Made It Shorter. Do you realize I have published over a million words by now? And today a friend suggested I write even more. (He thinks my story is a book, a movie, a series. Okay.) I’ll have to write him about my progress. There’s a frugal version of the same acronym: IIHMMIWSL If I Had More Money I Would Spend Less. Both messages present themselves every day because every day I write and every day I research and publish stories about living a simple, frugal life – alternative lifestyles that I admire but can’t afford because I don’t have enough money.

It takes money to make money. It also takes money to save money. Buying quality pays for itself if the goods last long enough. Old diesel Mercedes are marvelous, and last a very long time. Do I need to replay the story of the three little pigs and variations on building techniques? Good fabric, sewn well makes clothes that last long enough to become old familiars. But, if you don’t have enough money for a well made car, house, or jacket you have to buy what you can; which is why junk used cars, old mobile homes, and ratty coats are bought. It is one reason Wal-Mart’s incredibly low prices will always have shoppers as long as there are people who can’t afford better.

I’ve been a fan of simple living since, well, as long as I can remember. I enjoy looking at fancy cars, mansions, and the latest ski clothes; but that’s mostly to find which features I find most useful. Then I seek the useful at a far lower price, but without sacrificing my definition of quality. Just right is best. Extra features cost more without providing a benefit, and can even make a higher end item worth less to me. My appreciation for simplicity is why I write in my computer’s free software instead of Word. Word does amazing things, and frequently is so eager to show off that I can spend as much time Undo-ing and I spend Do-ing.

The frugal crowd is a fun crowd. These people celebrate resourcefulness, creativity, and function over form. Cars are replaced by motorcycles, bicycles, boats, buses, and walking – and there are more stories to tell as they spend less time worrying about fuel, traffic, and parking. Houses are built from conventional materials in unconventional forms, or in conventional forms using unconventional materials, or in combinations never to be repeated but surely to be appreciated – and I am drawn in by their attempts to find what is just right for comfort without adding in too much, or giving up too much. My next computer will probably be a Chromebook because it gives up the complexity and replaces it with utility, though it does so by embracing the innovation that is the cloud of the Internet.

But to buy a hybrid or electric costs far more than the resale on Chuck the truck (which definitely wins on utility).

Me working hard in Chuck the Truck.

Me working hard in Chuck the Truck.

The materials for the tiny houses I am so drawn to cost more than my liquid net worth and would only be truly useful if I had the land (and the zoning rights) to site it.

a tiny house with more luxury than most hotels

a tiny house with more luxury than most hotels

Even a $200 Chromebook is out of my budget, so until I have a spare couple of hundred dollars, this years old MacBook will have to hang in there (which is worrisome considering the random glitches that have been arising.)

WICEC laptop warrior

Every day I get to enjoy reading articles and posts about frugal people, independent souls investing their lives and money based upon their values. As a general rule, the closer someone gets to their core values the more they can ignore the externally imposed values. Concentrating on the values that matter generally becomes a simpler, less expensive way to live.

Unfortunately, it is possible to have too little. When basic needs can’t be met, basic values become dreams and wishes.

My path through frugality was bolstered by Your Money Or Your Life, the New Road Map Foundation (aka financialintegrity.org), the Simple Living Forums, and has been the subject of this blog and the book it is based on, Dream. Invest. Live. Dream. Invest. Live. Within those decades there are only a few years when I’ve had less than enough for my frugal values: just after getting my bachelors in engineering, just after getting my masters in engineering, just after buying my first house, and just in the last two years. Throughout, I’ve been decluttering my mental and emotional want list. I’ve known that I want a small house (a smallness that continues to shrink) with a good view (preferably of sunsets over the sea with maybe a mountain range on the horizon) on a large piece of productive property (gotta be able to grow trees and more than just lawn) some place quiet (Ah, Whidbey Island – south of the Naval Air Station’s jet noise). In all of those years of more than enough, I concentrated on saving to sustain the lifestyle I had, with dreams of expanding free time, philanthropy, and maybe someday downsizing to my small house ideal. If I had done that then, I wouldn’t be in the situation I am in now. (Anyone over the age of 40 can apply that phrase to so many different aspects of a life.)

I am frugal and it is frustrating, but I have also set new goals which are really just refinements of old goals. At this point they are back to being dreams and wishes, because even my basic current plan still awaits the action of my mortgage company, a buyer for my house, or significant improvements in my finances. Hey, it could happen.
8199 Cultus Drive, Clinton WA
If I have to find a place for me, then I’ll rent until I can afford land, and then I’ll continue to rent until I can build the smallest house that zoning will allow, and then I’ll rent no more, mortgage no more, and see what progress I’ve made on the rest of my values.

Of course, at my current rate of recovery, that may all be so many years away that things may change considerably. What probably won’t change is my frugality, despite its frustrations. The value in frugality isn’t the denial of wealth. The value of frugality is the appreciation of values, and they are worth far more.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

I Miss The Mall

Posted on December 14, 2013 by Tom Trimbath

I miss the mall. Having said that I wonder if I’ll be shunned in my small town. Office view But let me finish. I haven’t been to the mall in years, and that was because they have an Apple store and I needed a new machine. I am a minimalist, not a materialist; and I am a fan and advocate for local shops, stores, and proprietors. I also enjoy the holidays and have my traditions. Well, I have fewer traditions, now. Some are too pricey for my fragile (though improving) financial circumstance. One tradition was braving the traffic and frenzy to immerse myself in a mega-mall for a day every shopping season. There’s more than one reason I miss that tradition.

Shopping
The first reason is the most obvious. I miss being able to buy gifts for my friends and family. I may be a minimalist, but I enjoy giving the right gift to the right person. That photographer would appreciate that lens or filter. That cook dearly wants a marble pastry board. Joining the crowds maneuvering armloads of packages is like skipping a diet to enjoy a holiday feast. There are decorations, carols, and exuberant kids. And then there’s the guilty pleasure of walking out to my car, putting the packages in the trunk, and pretending to leave – then deciding to go back in. Want to really confuse folks? Get in the car and don’t go anywhere. How else to survive a day of shopping than to take a nap in the only quiet place for miles?

Investing
While I was shopping for everyone else (and getting a few things for me) I would also shop for stocks. Watch the people, the clerks, and the shops.

As I walked, I’d notice which shops were busy. Were the shoppers browsing, or lining up at the cash register? Were the clerks relaxed and empowered, or overwhelmed and required to be bureaucratic? Were the shops comfortable, or a mess? Sales don’t equal profits, but no sales means bad news. Happy employees are less likely to steal, more likely to encourage people to buy, and are less likely to quit so there’s less money wasted on training replacements. An empty, messy shop with disgruntled employees has more than one problem.

As I sat on a bench, I’d watch the bags. Little ones hide in big ones, but at least I could see which big ones were the most common. Were they bigger than last year? Do they have SALE emblazoned across them?

The best find was when I watched the traffic that wasn’t in the stores. Before those bags made it to their cars, many of them were carried into coffee shops and restaurants. That’s one reason I bought Starbucks (SBUX) and Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB) – and which I sold, but those are two other stories.

Humanity
Observe the human condition. If you lead a life far enough off the mainstream, it can be hard to imagine anyone living any other way.

I can imagine myself living in a smaller house than mine (864 square feet).

Shopping for a home?

Shopping for a home?

I wear clothes for comfort, utility, and practicality. Before a book talk on Thursday, a member of the audience and I compared styles. Hers included red. I described my style as comfortably bland. I bicycle when I can. If I am talking to someone I’ll only answer my cell phone if it is for someone in need of assistance (or because I forgot where and when I was supposed to meet someone.) I live in a fairly healthy environment amongst amazingly health conscious people.

But, that’s not for everyone, even though it seems like an obvious choice from the inside. (Really, who besides me wants to dress dull, sweat to get somewhere, and spend time away from amenities like stores that stay open past 7pm?)

The crowds at the mall are the norm. If they weren’t, the malls couldn’t afford to stay open. As much as I have no discretionary cash, and as much as the economy has some scary statistics behind it, there are millions of people collectively spending billions of dollars. Some are enjoying it. Some do it out of obligation. Most have a mix of joy and duty. The cost in time, money, and effort are the accepted norm. Faces will be buried in smart phones. Foods will be consumed for convenience and calories, not global impact or nutrition. The parking lot will be packed and a lot of the vehicles will be statements about personality instead of utility. This is the happy norm for the stereotypical average American. (And we all know stereotypical people really don’t exist. Right?) Assuming they will suddenly think my way is best is making a very self-centered and bad assumption, and something to keep in mind when I ponder where we, the world, and even this blog are going.

Until then, what little shopping I’ll do will happily be on the island from people I know for people I care about. A fair number of gifts will be things I’ve made or baked. I’ll undoubtedly lend a hand a few times. And, I’ll be glad that most of my friends will be doing the same. (The art that gets passed around is impressive, and the food around here is amazing.) I hope to put up a few lights tomorrow.

A playful light show thanks to icy weather

A playful light show thanks to icy weather

They’ll probably share space with prayer flags, totem symbols, and spirit guides. It makes for an interesting mix.

I miss the mall. When my finances improve sufficiently, I’ll be back – at least for one show a year.

 

PS Yes, I understand the irony of a minimalist selling books and photos, but I’m not opposed to others buying my art. If enough folks buy my art I can afford that trip back to the mall. Imagine that.

December's Arms - from Twelve Months at Deception Pass

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Spreadable Chocolate Klout

Posted on December 11, 2013 by Tom Trimbath

I’ve got a ton of Klout. It says so on the card that came in the box that was delivered yesterday. Yep. Evidently, a ton of klout is worth at least 13 oz of Hershey’s chocolate spread. DSCN4902 Heard of it? Maybe not. I hadn’t. That’s the point. Heard of Klout? The point of Klout is to spread the word, this time about spreadable (hazelnut-inspired?) chocolate. Advertising, and possibly the economy, is changing. Here we go again. I wonder where we’ll end up.

Because you’re reading this blog you’re partaking of social media. These free sites and services like WordPress, Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, Google+, Pinterest, etc. can all be used for free, but we know that someone is paying for the people that make up the companies behind the logos. (Check out xkcd’s map to see the 2010 diversity.) Marketers and advertisers are happily gathering data that was inaccessible before the Internet. They’re paying for the services we use for free, because they hope to get us to pay for what they’re selling. Then, they take that money and pay to mine data (Wolfram Alpha will display your Facebook analysis. Type in “Facebook”.) and place ads – with the money we gave them. So, maybe these sites aren’t quite free.

I’m glad I was born at the right time to watch computers and the Internet grow and evolve. I saw the Internet was it was still the ArpaNet, and didn’t see any real use for it. Oops. But after www, html, and browsing were born I could see that it wouldn’t stop; but, it wasn’t obvious where it would go. I wish I followed through on some of my earliest intuitions. At least I bought AOL early, but that’s another story (which is in my book – Dream. Invest. Live.). Dream. Invest. Live.

Remember print ads? Advertisers would place ads everywhere, hoping to catch our attention. It worked well on television, when there were only four channels. Talk to a lot of people and hope a precious few buy.

Yahoo realized it could make lot of money by creating a directory, and then letting advertisers place ads in front of self-collected audiences. A chat room about cars is an obvious place for car ads. No need to waste money broadcasting to the vast majority when a select minority organized themselves.

Google realized that people were more likely to search than to scroll through a directory. Keep track of the search terms and the most popular ones can be auctioned off to the highest paying advertisers, especially, if ads were tied to the searches. Cross-referencing search histories enabled even narrower, and hopefully more successful ad placements. Fewer ads for the same sales, or more, was a good deal.

Klout takes advertising one step further by using data mining to identify key people, influencers. Now that so many of us are reading and writing highly personalized lives on the Internet, particularly on social media, they can identify people whose reach is larger than it may appear. Instead of putting ads in front of them, go one step further and give them the product for a discount, or free. They know I’m likely to talk about a wide range of topics. Evidently, in addition to personal finance, Scotland, social media, and science they think I’ll talk about food. Okay. So far I’ve received coupons (and a nice lunch bag) for Tillamook yogurt , a coupon for a MacDonald’s Big Mac, and now Hershey’s new chocolate spread that appears to be a competitor to Nutella. Good advertising, bad advertising, they don’t care as long as I might say something, anything.

Free food? Thank you. Except for the yogurt, which isn’t for sale within 15 miles of my house; or, the Big Mac, which is more like 40 miles up the island.

For the food curious, and possibly for any Hershey person reading this blog: Yes, it looks and spreads like Nutella; but maybe I was wrong about the Nutella competition. Hershey’s spread isn’t quite just chocolate, but it isn’t implying that it is hazelnut. The packaging looks Nutella-ish, but the ingredients are quite different. Nutella claims over 50 hazelnuts per jar. Hershey has cocoa as the fourth and fifth ingredients, sugar is number one, and there’s also hydrogenated oil which a friend didn’t consider appealing. There is a reference to peanuts, almonds, and hazelnuts, but only as a list of allergens because of the processing equipment used. As for the taste – this would be fun with peanut butter; especially, if I was on a ski trip or was fourteen years old.

That’s why they do this. To get someone to say something, because now you are aware of the product whether you intend to use it or not. Considering the health consciousness of South Whidbey I don’t expect any of my friends to buy any.

Klout can seem innocuous, something to scoff at, then ignore. People did that with Google. People did that with Yahoo. People did that with the Internet. It turned out that the new ideas couldn’t be ignored.

Klout is an example of a possible new, alternative economy: a reputation based economy. So much of our lives are lived online, and the data generated is so valuable, that supply and demand forces are already at work. My posts about my life have not led to noticeable book sales, but evidently they have some tangible value. Hershey just spent a fair amount of money to ship me one jar of sandwich spread. One consequence is that I baked a loaf of Bob’s Red Mill Cinnamon Bread (gluten-free of course) so I’d have something to spread the Hershey’s on. I’ve been nibbling as I type.
DSCN4908
If my Klout score was higher I’d probably get better stuff than a jar of chocolate. But oh, what could be better than chocolate? I don’t know if I’ll find out. My score is usually between 55-60. Getting to 70 is an order of magnitude harder, and I have enough other things to do. Maybe the perks are worth it. Maybe not.

I’m curious about what I might get, but I’m also curious about what Klout may be initiating. A reputation based economy trades influence instead of money for goods and services. Is this the ultimate exploitation or an appropriate appreciation? I know dozens of people who are influential, compassionate, and broke. If Klout expanded its influence to the same extent as Google, we could see an unexpected and favorable shift away from the nasty to the nice, from the over-paid to the overlooked.

The speed of change is speeding up, and we are in a need for change. I don’t know if a reputation economy will become pervasive. I don’t know if Klout is the first step. But I do know that I look forward to an economy that values reputation more than money.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Dumb Luck Fixes Frozen Pipes

Posted on December 8, 2013 by Tom Trimbath

It dropped into the teens for a few nights.

from the first First Friday PhotoWalk at Greenbank Farm

from the first First Friday PhotoWalk at Greenbank Farm

Cold weather happens around Seattle, but down by sea level the water moderates the temperature – usually. Occasionally, a bit of Alaska drops in for a visit. Houses built for beach vacations may not be ready for ice in the pipes. I worried about my home, a mid-sixties waterview cottage that was probably heated with a wood stove for its first years.

A few nights ago I saw what I didn’t want to see, an ice cascade affixed to the side of my house under a faucet that I feared was broken before I bought the house. My anxiety level rose at the fear of a plumber’s bill. Within an hour, the plumber had me laughing. Sometimes we do the right things at odd times without knowing it. I hope that’s true for more than just pipes.

Every house has surprises. Seven years ago I had this house inspected when I bought it. The report was long and detailed, and I bought the house anyway. It has been the only house that’s really felt like home. I dutifully began fixing some of the problems specified in the report. Not surprisingly, I found a few things to work on that weren’t in the report, and didn’t get to everything all at once.

I bought in January, so there was no reason to use the outside faucets before spring. That’s when I found that the faucet on the back of the house was faulty. I turned the knob and water gushed out through the handle. Ah, so that’s why they had it capped. I turned off the water, which also turned off the heat to the house because it is radiant floor heating, and promptly drove to the hardware store. Where I also promptly found out that the faucet was so old that they didn’t have spare parts. Grumble. A full repair would actually be a full replacement, which would involve cutting into interior and exterior walls. The estimate was in thousands of dollars because of the possible complications. Instead, I bought a plastic cap that replicated the previous fix, and closed up the faucet again.

Last week the plastic cap broke. Ice covered the outside wall. It only looked like a cup of water, so luckily I’d found it early. Even while my anxiety and blood pressure levels were spiking, I called some friends to talk me through as I dutifully turned off the water, checked the crawlspace, checked the other faucets, installed a brass fitting I had in the utility room, and called a plumber. The plumbers were busy. No surprise. But they could be out the next morning. I cancelled some plans, and settled in for a vigil, possibly a quite cold one if the heat was off.

I decided to risk the heat because, without the heat, the other pipes might freeze. I left the water on, and checked the meter every hour or so to see if any frozen blockage had suddenly thawed and gushed out a leak.

Imagine this. The plumber showed up when he said he would. (Thank you Harbor Plumbing.) He was nice, friendly, and even let me follow him around as he diagnosed the problem. Evidently, whatever had I had done was good and quick enough because it looked like there was nothing for him to do without digging into a wall that didn’t seem to be damaged. I was relieved and perplexed. Where had all the water come from, and why had it stopped with such a simple fix? I told him the story about the water flowing out the handle, and the trip to the hardware store, and the fact that I hadn’t used the faucet in years because of what I’d seen. But neither of us was going to argue with what appeared to be no problem.

A few moments later, we both glanced at the faucet that didn’t have water coming out the handle. Why wasn’t it coming out the handle, and why hadn’t it all these years? He asked me to tell the story again. After I’d told it twice, he pointed out that, years ago, when I’d taken it out and put it back in, I’d probably resealed what needed to be sealed. Not only that, but from my description of the part, it is probably a frost-free faucet; which also means that the heater tape and protections on the other faucets may be overkill because they were probably frost-free, and that I had much less to worry about than most home owners. The water that turned to ice was just the remnants from in the line. He also made sure I knew that calling them had been the right thing to do. Small flaws in critical systems can cause massive damage if not fixed quickly.

A house always has things to fix. Since the drop in my portfolio, a lot of elaborate plans have been put aside. When the mortgage payments were also put aside, I had to resort to more frugal fixes. Here though, was a fix that I’d performed without knowing it. How many other things that I worry about are actually in much better shape than most because I’ve managed some fix at the earliest opportunity?

Problems are matched with solutions, and many of the solutions are put aside because they are too expensive, complex, hard to understand, or time-consuming. Thistles continue to attempt an overthrow of my lawn, but every spring I’ve simply pulled out the earliest ones – and my lawn has fewer invaders every year. Fitness is something to be done 20 minutes every day or so, but I manage to get in a run, or some dancing, or some karate, too infrequently, but often enough to be losing weight (though a gluten-free diet may take credit too.) Personal finance seems to be one of those things that require inordinate amounts of time to produce, but regular progress on spending less and making more is more powerful than an ever-procrastinated plan.

Maybe the grand plans we need to counter climate change, dysfunctional economies, and injustice are not as important as the individual efforts of people who reduce, reuse, and recycle; and the people who work at developing alternative currencies and local sharing; and the people who foster justice around the world by speaking simple truths about the way things are versus the way things ought to be.

The simple things we do can seem to have too little of an effect, which is why the plumber and I stood and laughed in my backyard when we realized how I’d managed to fix something without knowing it even though I was frustrated when I did it. What we do may seem small, yet it may fix far more than we can know.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

How Far We Have Come

Posted on December 4, 2013 by Tom Trimbath

Spy cameras were probably never this good. Saturday I’ll help teach a class in iPhone Photography, but I’ll take creative license and talk about how to take pictures with tiny cameras. I’ll take license partly because tiny cameras are everywhere, not just in iPhones; and partly because I don’t have an iPhone. But I do have a camera in my laptop Photo on 2013-12-04 at 20.36 #2, one in my ruggedized flip phonePhoto on 2013-12-04 at 20.37, and two in my iPadPhoto on 2013-09-24 at 18.31. Dig them out, put them together, and they’d probably all fit in a 35mm film canister. It is easy to forget how far we’ve come, partly because in so many ways we haven’t changed.

Where would Facebook be if tiny cameras weren’t everywhere? Folks would carry and upload photos from point and shoots, but they’d have to remember to carry yet one more device. A camera in a phone sounded preposterous, and then someone took a picture of their lunch, someone else caught a gaffe, someone else focused on a kitten. The Big Brother we worried about in George Orwell’s 1984 has become an infinity of little brothers eager for a snapshot that will garner the most Likes.

A walk without a camera, a phone, a GPS receiver and a moving map display is considered roughing it. We’ve accepted these things into our lives because they have become so convenient that they’re straddling the line between necessity and luxury. Of course, I know some folks who would be more comfortable carrying a sketch pad, a notebook, and a compass and a sextant. Yes. They do exist. (The sextant part is probably more prevalent because there are a lot of sailors around here.) Take a look at my bicycle ride across America Just Keep Pedaling and my walk across Scotland Walking Thinking Drinking Across Scotland. I relied on technology, but even now my approach looks archaic. No itinerary? No idea if the next town had a place to stay? No idea if the road is even complete?

I work almost every day. Since July 4th I’ve taken off about one day per month. A close friend who is keeping close track thinks I’ve only taken two days off: Labor Day and Thanksgiving. Could be. I’ve been too busy to notice. As part of my work day I pull together news feeds for New Road Map Foundation (values-based personal finance) and the History of Computing in Learning and Education Virtual Museum (what happened when computers entered the classroom). That means I read a lot of news. Thank you Facebook, Twitter, and Google News. Every day I delve into the faults and solutions of economy and education. Being human, we talk about the faults far more than we talk about the solutions. Such constant exposure can be tiring; so, I try to focus on the enlightening.

Our economic system seems to have many fundamental flaws. President Obama spoke about Economic Mobility, or the lack thereof. It was refreshing to hear him talk about some of the systemic issues that have gone beyond ideology. I rarely listen to politicians, but he held my attention for a 48 minute speech. Wealth and income inequity have increased to the point that they are self-accelerating and possibly creating a new class culture, which was one of the reasons the colonies revolted against England. How far have we come? The good news is that the President is acknowledging the situation. The sad news is that we may be back where we started over 200 years ago.

Education is in disarray. As Ken Robinson talked about, education is fundamentally out of synch with modern needs. What had been a systematized approach that worked well in the Industrial Revolution, does not mesh with a knowledge based economy which doesn’t operate on fixed schedules and which relies on businesses that must live by very short technology cycles. Teaching and learning are no longer centered on the instructor, and no longer end upon graduation. Learn a skill today and tomorrow it is a few percent closer to obsolescence. Fortunately, learning doesn’t have to be coupled to a teaching schedule thanks to computers and the Internet – and everyone who uploaded encyclopedias-worth of content.

Put the economy and education together and two old models look ridiculously out of date. Put two new models together, and there are more than two to pick from, and maybe something will fit. We don’t know. But we can hope whatever pair we pick is preferable to what it replaces.

My worries about the world can get me down. Yes, we’ve always had problems to face; but, until recently those problems were limited by a household or a community. Our community now includes every latitude and longitude, and is precariously constrained to one vulnerable planet.

Shudder. Quick. Get onto the next paragraph, because why would I write about personal finance if there are no solutions?

I see the way we adapt and accept change, as long as it makes sense. People are hunting for solutions to economy and education: alternative currencies, tiny houses, sharing economies – and – homeschooling, flipped classrooms, MOOCs. We humans are marvelous at finding new ways to do things. Somehow we’ve always found solutions, and sometimes didn’t even realize the problems they would solve (and others they would cause). Computers exist because someone developed the math of logic, and someone else developed a semi-conductor. The Industrial Revolution existed because someone figured out the power of steam, and someone else found a better way to make steel. Take it back far enough and the species probably survived because someone learned how to hunt and someone else learned how to cook.

I’d love it if the first real hunter was a woman and the first real cook was a man. But, no one was taking pictures back then, unless you think the cave drawings weren’t subject to artistic license.

The world may be falling apart. Our collective consciousness may be transcending our problems. I don’t know. But I do know that I’ll teach a class about tiny cameras that were initially ridiculed, and I’ll wonder what surprise will come along that will carry us somewhere unexpected and better. How far can we go?

Taken with my phone's camera - or is it my camera that has a phone?

Taken with my phone’s camera – or is it my camera that has a phone?

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments