Unused And Necessary Obamacare

Posted on November 21, 2014 by Tom Trimbath

It was with a great sigh of relief when I signed up for Washington State’s version of Obamacare last year. I wasn’t looking for a change in my health insurance. Despite the high cost I kept paying my original premiums, even as they’ve tripled over the years, and even when I couldn’t afford to pay the mortgage. The mortgage issue is resolved, I think. The health care issue is resolved, I thought. I was wrong. A year’s worth of experience and it looks like the process starts over again, maybe a notch further along the process. In the meantime, I’ve spent thousands of dollars, received no benefits, and will continue the practice.

At its basic minimum, Obamacare does nothing except exact a financial cost every month. Insurance is like that. Obamacare is not health care. Obamacare is health insurance. Having Obamacare does not mean free health care just like having car insurance does not mean you never have to fill the tank or repair the exhaust. With the right coverage, everything can be paid for, but those are premium plans; and premium plans are outside the reach of people who need assistance getting insurance.

The main consequence of Obamacare has been for Washington State to pay about 40% of my premium. I am grateful. The remaining cost is about the amount I spend on food, about the amount I should put away for taxes, or about the amount that could go to monthly doctor visits.

I have health insurance, and haven’t seen a doctor in years. To afford health insurance, even with the aid of government, I have to sign up for very high deductibles. Of course, if I go to the doctor and they pronounce me healthy, then the coverage actually covers a bit of that cost. But, if I go to the doctor and I’m not healthy (a very likely scenario considering I’m under a lot of stress and working so hard I have little time for exercise) then the insurance may or may not cover part of the cost of tests and treatments. If however, they decide not to pay the bill due to a technicality, then I am responsible for expenses I can’t afford.

I note this, not to gripe in public, but to clear up misconceptions about what people are required to sign up for. Insurance is not care. Insurance is money sent to an organization that pools the money to redistribute it to those in need who are qualified, according to the insurance company. Profits and inefficiencies will happen.

Washington State is one of the better places for subsidized health care, from what I hear of other states. The web site worked better than most. The people answer the phone, eventually, and have always resolved to fix the issue completely. I’m impressed. I’m also practiced with calling them. Even though I haven’t filed a claim, there has been an online glitch, a missed invoice, or a confusing announcement almost every month. A system that should be automated has enough flaws, and I’m only talking about my experience, that I’ve had to pay over the phone for the last few months. Neither the paper nor electronic invoices reach me, and the web site’s username and password system has such bizarre constraints that even with writing things down, the system kicks me out or sends me in loops through the Update Username and Password Required process.

Evidently one of the things I included in last year’s post was a description of some of the insurance plans in plain English. That post has had traffic almost every day since then. It is one of my most popular posts. I enjoy writing and would like to think the post is popular because of my style, but that post was a simple chronology without attempts at literary merit.

The news I received today is that the process is not something that is only done once. Signing up is an annual event. The system should be able to remember everything I input last year, but the system doesn’t even Remember Me when I check it at the log in screen.

Millions more people have health care now. That is something to celebrate. Lives have undoubtedly been saved. Friends tell me that their kids’ prescriptions can be filled. When everything works then the world is a better place.

I am an extreme independent moderate. I am passionate about the need for compromise and the fact that no organization or party represents people as well as people can represent themselves. That’s why I pay attention to both sides of Obamacare. For me, it is an expense, and if I had to be treated for a major illness or injury, the insurance could cover the majority of the cost. Unfortunately, the rest of the cost would very likely be sufficient to bankrupt me. And yet, I am glad Obamacare was passed and would consider it foolhardy to revoke it.

We The People contribute more to society when we are healthy.

My costs, while they may never benefit me directly, benefit others. I see my monthly health care premium as a contribution to a charity. Unfortunately, that contribution is channeled through inefficient profit centers, but that is today’s compromise. I’ll continue to pay for my health care, be glad for the monthly rebate – and look forward to being wealthy enough to be able to afford insurance, care, and a healthy lifestyle that minimizes the need for both. It could happen. We even got Obamacare passed, so anything can happen.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Three Hundred Days Of Chromebook

Posted on November 19, 2014 by Tom Trimbath

Chromebooks are the new beginning. Or rather, the idea of a Chromebook is the new beginning. Just like many people xerox things without owning a Xerox, put things in the fridge without owning a Frigidaire, or Google things without using Google (oh wait, that hasn’t happened, yet), the Chromebook is the first step into a new world of computing that is making many machines anachronisms. Sorry, Microsoft. Sorry, Apple. With the pace of change, Chromebooks may sweep away most new PCs and laptops, and get swept away themselves. Sorry, Google.

After months of research and hoping my MacBook didn’t die, I finally bought a Chromebook, thanks to a Christmas gift certificate. Rather than wait until the anniversary to post a one year report, I decided to step in as people are stepping into the shopping season and produce my almost 300 day report.

The short version: I doubt I could’ve run my business without it for the last 9 months.

The flip side of the short version: I got what I paid for.

For those of you who are just finding out about Chromebooks, skip a lot of the advertising. Chromebooks are inherently simple. Effectively you are using a piece of hardware that is primarily a keyboard, a monitor, and just enough electronic guts to communicate with the web. Yes, they can be equipped with as much power as a conventional laptop, but the basic idea is that everything can happen on the web, and will. Get used to it.

I’m not quite used to it. But, I’m learning. This HP 13 inch Chromebook is not much more than a terminal to the Internet. Granted, with the hardware in this laptop, and no Internet, I’d probably still be in possession of more computing power than almost all of the computers in the Apollo Program. As I use it now, which is how I usually use it, the keyboard is taking my finger motions, transmitting them to some simple input algorithm, sending them along to the Internet, while the machine also displays them on the screen. The details are far more sophisticated, but the effect is simple and essential.

Conventional PC and Mac laptops do the same thing, but they are also incredibly powerful and autonomous. A Chromebook without the Internet can do many things, but a PC or a Mac without the Internet can do amazing things. My jobs do not require amazing computing. They require effective communication, and that can be achieved with words, numbers, audio, and video; things that a Chromebook can readily provide.

My Chromebook is used every day because I work every day. Hours of use. Almost daily travel, sometimes by bicycle. It does almost everything I need done. But, it doesn’t do everything.

Maybe it could do everything, but I have yet to find pragmatic and free solutions for graphics processing, significant word processing, audio and video processing, and storage. When I need to edit a photo, proofread a client’s manuscript, prepare a video for YouTube, or archive my work, I use the Mac. Almost everything else happens on the Chromebook.

Chromebooks are fast, because they are simple. Chromebooks are more casual, because everything can be stored somewhere else. Chromebooks are more convenient, because the loss of one isn’t the loss of data and the machine can be replaced cheaply.

Chromebooks, are not, however, a panacea.

300 days of usage have produced a list of gripes that persist. Better user education, me, would clear up some of the issues, but some are undoubtedly fundamental. Here’s a disorganized list.

  • Disruptively sensitive mousepad
    • The mousepad is so sensitive that menu picks are picked accidentally. I’ve lost hours of work because the mousepad was trying to be hyper-useful.
  • Screen irregularities
    • This is probably a result of the bicycle commuting, but too often the screen becomes a harlequin pattern as something reconnects or adjusts. Very disconcerting.
  • Chrome OS not installed
    • The strangest error message was when it told me the operating system wasn’t installed. A little while later it forgot it told me that.
  • Working offline doesn’t save files
    • Supposedly, the minimal storage is accessible for offline editing. That sounds awesome and simple and efficient. Except that I have yet to get it to work. There’s probably a bit that has to be flipped but it is hiding, and should be more accessible.
  • Necessary to download Drive files to reformat them so Drive can read them
    • This is just bizarre. Chromebooks encourage the use of online storage, which for Google is Drive. But, sometimes the Google apps won’t let me save to Drive directly, either for format or whatever reasons. But, if I download the file to the Chromebook, or a USB drive, or an SD card, I can then upload it correctly. Not efficient.
  • Basic file information is unavailable, file size, format, etc.
    • File sizes shouldn’t matter in the world of cheap storage. Users don’t need to know the details of their files. Not. Let’s assume I know something about computers after using them for almost forty years. I can make good use of the file type, size, creation dates, and specific location. There is work out there that is lost. There are files in my Drive that I don’t understand.
  • Download means Save As? No. Download should mean download. So, download but don’t, you know, download it; just download it to the same place it was but with a different name.
    • This may just be a Drive or Google Apps thing, but, saving a file as a different format requires a download command. Then, upload back again. Not efficient.
  • Google Drive doesn’t update quickly enough for other Google apps.
    • Computers are quick, but the Internet is large. It can take minutes for the creation of move of a file in one folder is recognized in another application. Again, a Drive issue, but Chrome is built for Drive, and moving files around shouldn’t cost me or my clients more money.
  • Good battery life.
    • Ah, but all laptops are getting to the point that they last all day, almost – and don’t try to include the evening.
  • Chromebook incompatibilities restrict, though probably not for long.
    • Chromebooks do so much, but like early Macs, everyone else’s applications may not be compatible yet. This is an issue with video conferencing. Google Hangouts work fine, but few other options exist.
    • Connecting to the Internet old-style, through a cable, required the purchase of a USB adapter.
  • Clicking on Drive brings up Drive sometimes. Other times it just brings up files that are already open.
    • I’m finally getting trained on this one. If I click on the Drive button and nothing else is open, I get the list of files stored online. If a text document is open, I get it. If a spreadsheet is open I might get it. If I want to get to my files, I can click on files instead of Drive, but that emphasizes the text files and adds a step. To get around all of it I bookmark Drive and ignore the Drive icon.
  • Chrome must reload pages if there are too many tabs.
    • Chrome, the browser can handle lots of tabs, but clicking on the tab shows that the site probably has to be reloaded, and might not reload the most recent version of the site.
  • So light, lifting the lid lifts the computer.
    • Because Chromebooks are so simple, they have very few components and are very light. This is very nice for a bicycle commuter. They are so light, however, that simple things like lifting the lid lift the entire computer rather than opening it.
  • Camera green light, hack or fail
    • Conspiracy theorists enjoy this one. Without being in a Hangout or while communicating with anyone, the little green camera light turned on for several seconds, and then turned off. Cue the Twilight Zone music.

Another version of the summary: If I lost this machine, I would replace it with another, but probably not by HP. Some of the hardware issues are not related to Chromebook but to the manufacturer. I would also be far less anxious than if I lost my Mac. There is a freedom to not storing my files on a chip in a piece of plastic that I can readily drop.

PCs and Macs aren’t going away. Their power is needed, but it will be needed by fewer people every year. The Internet’s power grows. The need to contain that power in a box diminishes.

I do not, however, expect Chromebook’s reign to last long.

Chromebooks got rid of almost all of the fancy electronic components. They are simple, cheap, and light. The biggest things they have remaining are the keyboard and monitor. The most important internal components are wi-fi and rudimentary processing hardware. A smartphone contains many of the same elements, but smaller. The technology exists to project the display and to project the keyboard, and do a lot more as well. Supposedly, by this time next year there will be a smartphone that includes a projector. If it includes two, then something the size of a smartphone can dramatically undercut Chromebook’s size, weight, cost, and utility. The pace of change is accelerating. Chromebooks are racing our way, and may get passed even more rapidly. Investors in MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, and MVIS take note (for divergent reasons.)

Stay tuned. (And shop around.)


PS I’d like to give you the technical and brand specifications for this Chromebook, but I can’t find them. If there’s an “About This Chromebook” section in the Settings, I can’t find it. – Oh, wait. Let me flip this over. Nope. I can tell it is an HP, and that it met a lot of certifications, but I can’t tell you how to buy another one. The marketing department might be upset about that.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Weeks End Evenings

Posted on November 14, 2014 by Tom Trimbath

“Have a nice weekend.” The person behind the cash register was more sincere than you may expect because this is an island and the small towns are our rural equivalent of the big city. It’s Friday night, after I post this blog, if there’s enough time, I’ll work on creating an online store for some merchandise that will be available in time for the holidays. “Have a nice weekend.” I like the thought, but for me and many people I know, the weeks never end. And yet this week, which isn’t over yet, is like so many, sprinkled with tidbits that prove progress is being made.

It’s Friday night, and I’d like to release the next episode in Cooking With Cannabis – What Can You Do With A Gram, but that won’t happen until later, if at all. I definitely have an incentive to continue. Maybe it will help butter my popcorn later.

I look forward to telling you about a service I’ll be providing publicly, but it’s at the virtual version of the real world “Coming Soon” sign. As if I needed another project. I don’t need another project, but I do need a project that can reach more people. Fortunately, I’ve already seen demand rising as people stumble across it online. It isn’t passive income, but it has the potential to be much more than an hourly wage. And, it uses skills that I’ve been recognized for. Optimism persists!

In the world of finance:
Geron made news by selling off the last of their treatments. The market said, hurray!, and drove up the price of GERN almost 20% on ten times normal volume. I won’t complain about a 20% increase, or the interest from Johnson & Johnson in the treatment; but, I am also saddened that Geron, which had such independent promise for years, is reduced to celebrating the sale of some control of one of its last remaining assets. It may be just what they need, but at one time it looked like they wouldn’t need anyone. The more they sell, the lower the ultimate profit potential. The treatment, however, is as promising as ever and has great potential for more than just blood disorders.

GigOptix made news by not buying someone else’s assets. GigOptix is a tiny conglomerate. That may be an oxymoron, but the company has been buying even tinier high tech electronics firms. That much merger and acquisition action complicates the finances. I hope that isn’t their main intent. As a strategy, it has a lot in common with Cisco, which is now a $131,000,000,000 firm. GigOptix is a $40,000,000 firm. There’s another example of a stock that could grow 3,000 fold; but, I don’t expect it and suspect management doesn’t either. Their most recent acquisition attempt failed. I’m glad because I’d rather hear that management was working more on execution than acquisition. Maybe they’ll only do half as well. How about 1,500-fold? Or 150-fold, or 15-fold?

MicroVision didn’t have any news. But, with the holidays approaching, a lot of us are watching. Even a small announcement may move MVIS.

There was Dendreon news, but I already wrote about that sad story. Ah, DNDN, we had such a grand future, potentially.

That isn’t enough to fill a week, but entrepreneurs know the early phases of projects have many inefficiencies. Contractors and consultants know that having many clients is better than having none, but that inefficiencies are inevitable as attention shifts focus throughout the day and week and month and –  . Besides helping to establish a substantial museum, I’m also helping someone reinvent computer programming, helping an organization go through a major transformation, helping numerous people pursue numerous publishing projects, publicizing the work of highly specialized aerospace experts, jokingly help people enjoy real estate by writing light articles about living in Seattle, and somehow finding time to give talks, prepare presentations, advertise classes (Modern Self-Publishing and Social Media For Authors), support my book and art

Scatchet Sunset - from Twelve Months at Cultus Bay

Scatchet Sunset – from Twelve Months at Cultus Bay

sales, and every day calculate if I’ve made enough to A) pay my bills, and B) pay my taxes. Somehow A) is happening. B), well, I’m working on that.

“Working on that” is why the week never ends. Hard work succeeds, but it ramped more quickly before. Now, I know of many people working every day. They may even see a blog as a luxury they can’t afford to write or read just as I see anyone taking two days off every week as living in luxury.

I’m glad I live in America. Few countries allow as many opportunities. Few cultures are based on a common understanding that some people will work this hard.

I’m also sure there are places that are better. Many countries provide more basic services such as health care. Most countries make it easier to take time off.

Ironically, I’m working so hard to pay my bills and my taxes; but, two of my major bills are health care and taxes. Working so hard can make health care costs rise. Paying taxes was easier and less stressful when I had a higher net worth; but the higher taxes are stress inducing which reflects back into potential health care costs.

With all of that in mind, with the 6/7th’s of a week’s progress behind me, I think I’ll listen to myself, celebrate the accomplishments so far, look forward to passive or nearly passive income possibilities, and postpone an hour or two of work tonight. I’ll try to squeeze it in to tomorrow’s schedule. For tonight, I think I’ll call a dear friend, then make myself some herb-infused popcorn, and see if I can have a nice weekend – at least during the evenings.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Dendreon Bankruptcy

Posted on November 11, 2014 by Tom Trimbath

Build a better mousetrap and the world will beat  path to your door. Cure cancer and everyone will cheer you. Dendreon didn’t cure cancer, but it did develop a cancer treatment that was better than the competition. In 2013 they made over a quarter of a million dollars and treated hundreds of prostate cancer patients. The company is filing for bankruptcy. Shares of DNDN are at less than a tenth of my last sale; and my last sale was at less than a tenth of the stock’s peak. Investing is risky, but Dendreon and DNDN are a cautionary tale for a possibly shifted investing environment. Rewards continue to exist, but the risks may be higher.

It has been over two years since I blogged about Dendreon. The company and the stock fit many of my criteria. I bought DNDN when Dendreon was unknown by most of the investing community and laughed at by much of the rest. The company was developing a cancer treatment that relied on teaching the body how to defend itself. It was a pricey treatment, but it was cheaper and better than the conventional competition. If the technology succeeded, the potential would exist to treat many of the other major cancers. Finally, it was approved and the company switched roles from unproven to approved.

As an investment, DNDN was following a path I’ve experienced enough times before to encourage me to buy such small companies. In less than a year and a half it went from below $3 to over $50. The valuations seemed conservative because most estimates were based on one cancer treatment; but the potential was far greater. Regardless, I was about to sell about 10%-20% after it rose another 20%. Then, a less than stellar earnings report. Instead of going up 10%-20% it went down 40%. Reality was less than expectations; so, even making hundreds of millions of dollars was not enough and the stock continued to slide. I continued to sell out of necessity and sold my last shares at about $4. Friends who held shares saw the business grow and the shares sink. Some still have theirs and I can understand that pain.

Dendreon should’ve succeeded. DNDN should’ve succeeded. The reasons they didn’t are various. The most obvious reason is that the company got into too much debt to build out the appropriate capacity. After a few years without sufficient growth a balloon payment that would’ve been trivial for a multi-billion dollar corporation was too big to meet.

FDA delays, a flash crash, and surprisingly negative media pressure are events and circumstances that are each explicable, yet when combined suggest a decrease in trustworthiness in investing. None, that I’m aware of, have been credibly investigated and appropriately prosecuted.

The FDA delays made bureaucratic sense, but not business or humanitarian sense. The FDA treats novel treatments with great caution; but a three year delay to raise their assurances also meant denying tens of thousands of men the treatment. Death by bureaucracy is bad enough, but enough doubts were raised about conflicts of interest that suggest the delays were designed to the advantage of the existing competition. A three year delay would mean a three year continuance of profits.

The investing community frequently commented on trading activities that would normally draw the attention of the SEC; but, the flash crash surprised everyone, including one of the anchors at CNBC. DNDN went from over $24 to under $8 in less than two minutes. No news. Shareholders with Stop Loss orders were tripped out of their shares. The stock was halted, then rebounded. I was told that the three day settlement period involving each trade is there to provide a buffer in case the trades were suspect. The trades were left unchanged. The NASDAQ Market Maker wasn’t publicly criticized or investigated. The SEC and the system effectively did nothing.

In the media, suggestions, insinuations, and speculations were raised that bolstered the existing treatments rather than cheering a major advance against cancer. The data were rarely mentioned. The patients were ignored. One suggestion was that the media collectively decided to chastise Dendreon for trying something new. Another suggestion was that the industry’s immune response was powerful. An upstart that would be profitable at less than a billion dollars in revenue was a serious challenge to a multi-billion dollar industry. A few percent of a multi-billion dollar income stream is enough to fund major media campaigns, direct or not.

(The best discussion I’ve found is over on Investor Village.)

Or, Dendreon’s bankruptcy is due to one CEO overextending the company. That’s the easier story that fits nicely into a 15 second sound bite or a three inch newspaper column.

I don’t expect to learn if the conspiracy theorists are right. I doubt that they all are, but so many forces were in play that I also wouldn’t be surprised to find that at least one was correct.

The cautionary tale regarding investing is partly the classic risk / reward tradeoff. The other cautionary tale that has changed my perception of the stock market is the lack of a response from the FDA and the SEC. Whether through budget cuts, internal policies, or external forces, my government didn’t seem interested in even investigating abnormalities so many of us witnessed in public. Maybe that’s why they didn’t investigate and why I have less confidence in the system – the abnormalities are becoming normal.

Friends are encountering hardship because they also bought DNDN. My hardship started with the drop in DNDN in August 2011. Such hardships are dismissed by many because either their investments succeeded or they don’t invest. Investors do have to be prepared to weather such upsets, setbacks, and failures in silence. But, with wages stagnant, and hard work insufficient to get ahead, investors are at least trying to avail themselves of avenues. Those roads were rough before, but they seem a bit darker and dangerous now.

Dendreon will probably be a profitable company after it recovers from bankruptcy. Its main disadvantage has been its debt. Without that, the company has good prospects. Whether the shareholders will have to lose then buy back in, I don’t know. But, I would be curious to learn how much the new managers make in the meantime, and how they’ll be compensated throughout the proceedings. There are many perspectives on how a company can be viewed as profitable.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

What A Difference A Quarter Teaspoon Makes

Posted on November 7, 2014 by Tom Trimbath

Listen to the news and it sounds like a dramatic week. Look around my house and the two most obvious events were a wind storm and I mowed the lawn. There was the chance for dramatic good news from MicroVision, but not this time, again. The economy is improving, and as one client closes their project, others entice with attractive positions that merely lack compensation. A situation that must be improved. There’s little to be done this late on a Friday night. I can, however, continue my experiments brewing the new version of a cup of green tea. A quarter teaspoon of that herbal tea that is legal in a few more states may make more of a difference than all the drama.

Okay, so there were elections. The news made sure we know about that. The debates are moot. As one pundit put it, nothing’s changed except the party that is filibustering. Government has done a fine job of preferring ideological scrimmaging over pragmatic governing. Much of the real progress is happening thanks to non-politicians getting issues on the ballots. The news hounds chase through the halls of power, but the real work is being overlooked and unappreciated.

MicroVision announced news this week. Their quarterly earnings were released, and the lack of news was no surprise. As usual, stockholders were left parsing paragraphs and phrases from the news and the conference call to derive qualitative assessments of the company’s progress. The quantitative assessments were possible, but the numbers available were so weak and not representative of the potential that it is generally accepted the subsequent valuation would be bleak. Bleak, however, does describe the stock price. I continue to be divided about MVIS. I think they have great potential and could also never succeed. In general, the news sounds like things will be much better within the next 6-9 months; a situation that has been true for years. (Peter Jungmann has some good arguments for optimism.)

The best news I’ve heard this week all came from individuals. Businesses are busy. Friends are paying their bills, and one even bought a boat. I’m not the only one working seven days a week with most of the evenings included. I know some who include working nights, too; something I couldn’t sustain. Jobs are shuffling. Opportunities are developing. But, I continue to make enough for my regular bills, hope nothing breaks, and wonder where I’m going to get the money to pay my taxes. Ah, but a little bit of good news could go a long way. And, some of the potential news is big – if they can get the money. Fortunately, there are a few such possibilities and it would only take one or two to make me breath easier. Sooner is better than later.

Waiting on good news is a habit. The world impresses me. It is beautiful, rich, and defined by potential. Look at the seeds spinning from maple trees. Each seed is the potential to create another tree. One tree could produce one forest if given the opportunity.

This week, Whidbey had a wind storm. Fall has been warm, which means the leaves stayed on the trees. Thanks to the kind of weather forecasting that was a fantasy fifty years ago, we knew it was coming and could watch it on radar. The last bit of clear sky was around for the sunrise. A backdrop of the storm front was the canvas for a double rainbow that took up more sky than my wide-angle lens could see. The high winds and high tide hit together, throwing water and logs over the sea wall and undermining the beach. Power outages were scattered around the island as the leaves caught the wind and pulled their trees down across the lines. Luckily, no one was hurt; and I didn’t even lose power. (Losing power is one of the few ways I’ll take a day off, and even then, I’ve got emergency power. Gotta pay those bills! Gotta eat!) The next day, the storm was past. The Sound was so still it looked like a kayaker could coast for miles without paddling. It doesn’t work that way.
DSC_5158 DSC_5192 DSC_5199
I remind myself that the storm I’m weathering, and many (but not all) of the storms we’re weathering, are dramatic and pass. In the midst of it, there are appropriate concerns, responsible actions, and developing stories. Afterwards though, Most things head back towards normal. A few things will have shifted. There will be some damage to repair; but, except for the big events like climate change, we manage to adapt and steer ourselves true. Eventually.

So, what’s a guy to do? Keep doing. Tonight, I’m doing the next step in my culinary cannabis experiment. This time, twice as much as last time: a quarter of a teaspoon. Not much of a thing; but, this time there is aroma, flavor, and still no effect large enough to notice. Of course, maybe that’s the best news – I’m making progress and I get to continue experimenting. That’s good news, and like so much progress, it won’t show up on the news.

DSC_5204 DSC_5205

Hmm, maybe I am feeling a bit more relaxed. A quarter of a teaspoon may a nice step.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

An Anniversary To Celebrate

Posted on November 5, 2014 by Tom Trimbath

It came on like lightning and has rumbled on like thunder echoing from the hills. Some forecast a storm, and at best, people found umbrellas when they actually needed an ark. In 2008, I started blogging. Barack Obama had just been elected President, and the world breathed a sigh of relief. We knew there were troubles, but it was time to put the fears of 9/11 behind us and return to something like normal, but better. Then, the storm hit that was the beginning of the Great Recession. My simple little blog that was intended as an adjunct to my recently published book on personal finance, Dream. Invest. Live.Dream Invest Live cover, has become more as my life has since weathered financial rises and falls. Within those years I’ve been within days of having “enough”, lost almost everything, and have been busier than I’ve ever been as I try to survive, recover, and hopefully find a sustainable life. I toast myself with a glass of red wine from a box.

It feels as if it has always been this way, whichever way that is. Six years ago, though, all of the US Presidents had been white men, NASA was still using the Space Shuttle, Twitter was only 2, climate change was more data than debate (though some had been aware for decades), and gas prices were half of what they are now.

Six years from now, what may be different? A female President? Space is either abandoned or more readily accessed? Facebook and Twitter will be replaced by _ ? The coast line exodus, which has already begun, will move millions. Solar, and maybe some other innovation, will have replaced fossil fuels for a surprisingly large percentage of our energy use. Graphene and 3-D printing will be redefining so much of our world that I won’t speculate further.

We haven’t recovered from 9/11. Just check TSA, the ubiquitous cameras, and the requirement for having the right papers. I can’t be the only person who cringes when watching a WWII movie where the Nazis are checking everyone’s papers as an example of an authoritarian regime. We haven’t recovered from the Great Recession. I know I haven’t. The stock markets are hitting records, but almost all of the gains are going to less than 1% of the population. Unemployment is down, but wages are too, and many unemployed are no longer counted. Meanwhile, global ice is melting faster than it can be replenished, and the methane stored in permafrost is accelerating the greenhouse effect faster than carbon could on its own. And fracking, just amazing how bizarre our institutions are if that’s allowed to be as prevalent as it is.

Extrapolating from 2008 to 2014 would’ve failed massively. Extrapolating from 2014 to 2020, would fail even worse because the changes are accelerating and intertwining. All the more reason for me to continue to blog because writing books is too slow to keep up with the world. (Writer’s confession: I have three book ideas that could be started as soon as I find the time. Okay, so that may not happen soon.)

Intentions and reality do not coincide, regardless of philosophical assertions I hear frequently. My intention for this blog was as an adjunct to the book, Dream. Invest. Live., so the intended topics were personal finance, frugality, and balancing life and money. One of the advantages of blogging is the quantitative feedback about what people want to read. Here are the five most popular posts.

  • A Bow To Drewslist – An acknowledgement of a man who does one simple thing very well and defines a community.
  • Micro Vision – A story about a company and a stock, which is about personal finance, but is popular because people want hot stock tips.
  • One Confused ObamaCare Applicant – Not even an attempt at anything literary, just a chronology of what it was like to try to sign up before the deadline; but, I described the difference between some of the plans; and was open about the frustrations.
  • Weed Changes Whidbey – Marijuana is legalized! And nothing really happened, be readers like the story.
  • Whew Good News – A story about a company and a stock, and one episode in the most disheartening saga of a successful cancer treatment undermined by financial forces that were unchallenged by federal officials.
  • (Note: Some of the earliest posts were even more popular, but thanks to arcane and archaic systems at Earthlink and Apple, that data is practically indecipherable.

If regular readers wonder why lately I’ve been broader in my choice of topics it is because I realize that what people want is either: 1) hot stock tips, which I won’t give, though I will tell the stories about my investments; and 2) insights and perspectives on the shifting economy from someone who has been through a wide range of America’s socioeconomic classes. #2 covers a lot of ground, and I continue to explore it. Investing in stocks is changing, but the changes in the rest of the economy are ready to redefine currencies, occupations, and community.

My blogging continues. What was one blog in 2008 has now branched into eight (some of which I ghost write) with a new one being launched next week. Details to be revealed. Evidently, I am good enough at describing complicated matters simply, and simply observing remarkable things that haven’t been remarked upon enough. I’m even writing about culinary cannabis experiments – legally! That wasn’t a prediction in 2008.

Yesterday was an election in the US. Lamentations and celebrations commenced. Extrapolating the current climate, politically or environmentally, produces unrealistic predictions for 2020. I will continue to be a short term realist, long term idealist, and an extreme independent moderate who knows most workable answers are in the middle. I am also aware that such a position is unfashionable and unpopular.

And, I thank you for reading. The larger our community, the stronger we are, even if we don’t know who “we” are.

Stay tuned. I’m hoping for better weather. Maybe that echo of thunder is fading.

Photo on 2014-11-05 at 20.13

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

What I Can Do With An Eighth Of A Teaspoon

Posted on November 2, 2014 by Tom Trimbath

Thank you all for putting up with the joke about making a cup of tea from two bits of a marijuana bud. Total effect: I smiled because I got past everyone else’s anxieties and anticipations. This personal finance and amateur philosopher blog is not going to turn into a strictly cannabis culinary experiment. But, frugality can become such a habit that it is hard to see it in operation well enough to discuss it. I certainly don’t have any habits built up around cannabis, and there are certainly cautions and curiosities about it; so, I realized this is an opportunity to explore both. If I didn’t tell you that, you might have had a tough time figuring out how I do things. Welcome to the real step one of the culinary explorations of an engineer, geek, artist, entrepreneur, and innovator.

I like tea. There’s a frugal sentence. Few words, few syllables, few letters. When my pantry is full, it will usually contain about three dozen varieties of black, white, green, oolong, pu-erh, herbs, spices, and combinations. Less than half are in tea bags. I keep bags around for convenience and for guests who are unfamiliar with loose leaf tea. Loose leaf tea, however, is my favorite. There’s no doubt about what’s going into the pot and cup. The leaves haven’t been processed as much, they keep longer, I can control the portions, and mix them for the fun of it. It is a good thing that I have several friends who operate tea shops. The three with tea in my cupboard right now are Dandelion Botanical (Ballard and online), Green Willow Living (on hiatus, but maybe not for much longer), and a place in Langley that’s so new that I can’t remember their name.

Dandelion Botanical, Green Willow Living, and - rats, I can't remember their name.

Dandelion Botanical, Green Willow Living, and – rats, I can’t remember their name.

Tea is frugal. It is cheaper than coffee. The better the tea, the more likely the leaves can be used two or three times. Tea is made from dead leaves and boiling water. The only thing simpler would either be dead leaves, or boiling water. I did the boiling water trick last week. Dead leaves are a salad, or a garnish, or chewing tobacco. Salads are good, but I don’t want to drink one. Garnishes are – well – useless, except for ambiance, which has its place. Chewing tobacco, shudder. I’ve worked with people who drank Coke, then refilled the can with tobacco spit. Shudder again. Yeah, tea is much better.

Tonight’s tea will be green, and unaltered. True green tea has been oxidized. I’m using my marijuana as is. Tea is typically measured in teaspoons. Duh. But, I portion mine out depending on mood, need for or to avoid caffeine, whether food is involved, how much I’ll make, how long I’ll let it steep, and whether it ends up in a thermos. No. I am not going to bore you with all of those details. Tea is simple the way the game of Go is simple.

I suspect that a teaspoon of marijuana leaves in a cup or two of boiling water might be a bit overpowering. I break the rules of tea preparation by using about that much for a liter of tea – and then I’m amazed at how much tea a barista will shove into a bag for a cup. They know coffee. I’m met few who know anything about tea.

Enough tea leaves for a liter

Enough tea leaves for a liter of black tea for me

Marijuana, however, supposedly doesn’t infuse well into water. Most recipes suggest adding fat to draw out the influential chemicals. Add a bit of butter or milk, and the effects are heightened, so I hear. So, if I was making a cup of black tea, I’d use less than a teaspoon. I’d also only leave the leaves in the water for five minutes. For marijuana, I decided to use an eighth of a teaspoon (to sneak up on the effect), but leave it in the water for an hour. An hour’s steep is long enough for the water to cool down; but such long steeps are common with teas made of bark (cinnamon), roots (licorice), and berries. The geek in me would enjoy making a matrix of test batches, but let’s stay practical here. This is not my career. This is one way I hope to enjoy the compensations for my labors.

An eighth of a teaspoon - more than enough for a first step

An eighth of a teaspoon – more than enough marijuana for a first step for me

Pardon me as I sip a bit to check for flavor.

Not bad. A few folks told me the flavor would have to be masked, but maybe they put too much in. This is fine as is. The effect probably won’t be immediate, or even noticeable for so few leaves. A bit of honey is always welcome, so maybe I’ll add that if I reheat the tea.

Debates continue to rage, and elections are about to be held. More states are asking voters to decide about legalizing marijuana. It is easy to get trapped in escalating debates that spiral away from any sense of perspective. Frequently, it is quicker, cheaper, and easier to try instead of talk. Minimalists can get their start by decluttering one shelf a month. Investors can get their start by buying a few shares of one stock. Some things aren’t gradual or reversible. Rockets require commitment and a tolerance for risk. Many things can be taken one step at a time, stopped, restarted, redirected, and kept in control.

Oh, and about reusing tea leaves, I’ll give that a try too. After they’ve done their tea duty, I’ll put them in melted butter that gets drizzled across this evening’s popcorn. Who said frugality isn’t fun?

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Four Trade Deals Ravaging the World

Posted on November 2, 2014 by Tom Trimbath

If economics are more important than politics, then trade deals are more important than treaties. Americans may (but probably don’t) know the Democratic and Republican (and Libertarian for even fewer) platforms. Americans that know WTO, TTP, NAFTA, and TPP are far fewer; yet, those acronyms cover more than a few catch phrases.

Before the Zombie Apocalypse – Yes! Magazine

Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment

What Can You Do With One Gram

Posted on October 30, 2014 by Tom Trimbath

What can you do with one gram of weed? You can start a lot of novel conversations. Getting my picture on the front page of the local paper (The bi-weekly South Whidbey Record) helped. Marijuana is legal in Washington State. Finally, I can try to cook up some stress-relieving foods and drinks. First, though, I have to sort through crowds of expectations and anxieties. A great debate over a cup of tea – as the American tea party gets redefined yet again.

Life is not work, work, work, even though that’s what I’ve been doing almost every day. The New Economy means I’m working seven days a week, with one day off every other month. I’m an optimist. It’s temporary. I’m looking forward to Thanksgiving.

Life is also change. I watch trends out of habit, and have benefited from that in the past. It was good to catch onto the Starbucks early rush, and I don’t drink coffee. I drink tea; which, ironically I learned to appreciate at the first Starbucks store back when they sold loose leaf and spices, too. Besides anticipating some relaxing relief from a non-alcoholic and non-caloric beverage, I’ve been watching the marijuana industry in case there are investment potentials. Nothing rational yet. Stay tuned.

My simple expectations sit nicely in the middle of the two extremes of commentary directed my way. “Oh my god, this new stuff is so potent you’ll hurt yourself!” “Awesome! Welcome to the club. Party on!” Ah, I just wanted a cup of tea, or maybe something extra for my popcorn.

Amidst the swirl of advice I stepped back and did some research online (where else do we do it?) for recipes and techniques. The people uploading to YouTube must be rich, growers, or willing to sacrifice a lot to buy their ingredients. “Take a half ounce and …” A half ounce?! A gram cost me $30. Yikes! I can’t follow those instructions. That’s why I decided to experiment.
DSC_5114 - Edited
When people heard I was going to experiment I heard horror stories. It is almost as if they expect me to take the entire bud and smoke it as quickly as possible. That makes as much sense as chugging a bottle of booze.

And then, of course, there are those that choose not to partake; which I totally understand. If you don’t want to do it, don’t do it. Some people like tofu. Well, okay, go enjoy that.

The discussions are all appreciated. Party on. Be careful. Only do it if you want. Be responsible.

The echoes of the conversations collided in my head. How to start the explorations? How much should I use? Should I sequester myself for the day? Should I …?

Wait a minute. All I want is a cup of tea and to get past this first step. Tea is easy. Boil water. Either drop leaves in water or pour water onto leaves. A sweet spot probably exists somewhere between no leaves and no effect, and an entire bud and probably too much. Besides, the reason to start with water is because it isn’t a very effective way to extract the effect.
DSC_5120    DSC_5121    DSC_5122

Do those images spook you? Don’t worry. The bud was still in its bag when I decided I wanted a regular cup of herbal tea. The leaves are lemon balm from my front yard. Writing is hard work. I needed something to drink.

I’ve decided to get silly, even before my first sip. I know just the right dose to get things started. A leaf from a bit of a bud. A fraction of a portion of a gram. A daisy petal would weigh more. Love me. Love me not.

Of course that’s a ridiculous amount. That shouldn’t do anything. That’s the point. Except for the last few decades, marijuana use was the norm. Let’s get past the folderol and get to spending more time talking about the day than what’s in the cup.

Okay, maybe one little leaf really is too little to make that point. I’ll double it and see what happens.
DSC_5123 DSC_5124 DSC_5125
Intermission while the tea steeps.

Ah, the aroma. It smells just like – boiled water. The water has a bit of color, but I don’t have a working dishwasher so that may be more of a measure of my dishwashing skills. Oh, and the flavor. The flavor is that of – yep, boiled water in a cup that maybe should’ve been cleaned better last time.

Seriously, I am going to continue my culinary explorations, partly from curiosity about a recently forbidden substance, partly from curiosity about anything new that’s added to my pantry. And, if I find myself giggling, well, considering the way things have been going I could use a good laugh – and some popcorn.

I’ve learned something tonight. I need to use more leaves to even color the water. Maybe next time I’ll try four leaves. Radical.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , | 1 Comment

More Insufficient MicroVision News

Posted on October 28, 2014 by Tom Trimbath

MicroVision announces news! No, really. This time with numbers! Surely its stock (MVIS) will react. It certainly did last February. Surely October will be no different. Except it was. The life of small companies and small stocks are irrational, or at least chaotic. Individual investors must try to make sense of the news from their perspective. Easy or not, it is rarely conclusive.

Check back through my blog. In February 2014, a news item took MVIS from about $1.40 to about $2.80 in a day. MicroVision was working with Sony. Nice. A big name company validated MicroVision. Years of waiting were vindicated and the market rushed in. And then drifted back out.

Waffle words, revenue payments which were large, but not large enough, and great gaps in which no words were spoken meant expectations dwindled and faded over the months. MVIS stumbled back down about $1.80. The discussion boards fill the gap with speculation, but the market doesn’t want to speculate on the stock.

Today’s news was encouraging. The company is still not allowed to mention Sony by name, as bizarre as that is, but this time there was a definitive payment amount mentioned in the press release. No need for speculations. There was a need to meet greater expectations though, and the stock fell on the good news.

Every MVIS investor gets to interpret the news from their perspective. Each perspective is unique, which is why the discussions never end. Here’s my interpretation of the news.

The press release.
MicroVision, Inc. (MVIS), a leader in innovative ultra-miniature projection display technology, today announced it has entered into an agreement valued at $1.5 million with its Fortune Global 100 customer for display module support services.
MicroVision recently announced successful completion of development work under an April 2013 agreement. The company and its customer will now transition to focusing on commercialization activities that are expected to span several phases including production readiness, initial production and market launch for the display module.
“We are pleased to provide continued support to our Fortune Global 100 customer as we work together to bring the display module incorporating PicoP® display technology to market,” said Alexander Tokman, president and CEO of MicroVision.

Here’s how I parse the information.

  • “MicroVision, Inc. (MVIS), a leader” Being A leader isn’t as strong as being The leader. While it may be a bit of wordsmithing, even a small company like MicroVision is worth tens of millions of dollars. Every word that can change the public perception by 1% is affecting the company’s value by hundreds of thousands of dollars. Of course, maybe they don’t see themselves as being The leader.
  • “entered into an agreement” is good news, but Entered is not Completed; which means backlog increases, which is good; but the work and potentially the payments come later.
  • $1.5 million is good news. It isn’t however enough to make the company profitable. It is on the same order as my estimate for the total pay for key executives. Regardless, it is money, it has value, and that value should be reflected in an update to the company’s valuation. For a Price/Sales = 6, the market cap should increase by $9M. For a Price/Earnings = 20 (assuming services are all profit, which they are not), the market cap should increase by $30M. The current market cap is about $75M, so there is logic to suggest the stock could’ve risen by 12% – 40% from my perspective.
  • “Fortune Global 100 customer” = Sony, with a high degree of certainty; which is good news because it means a significant customer came back for more.
  • “Support Services” = Services are not products, so there’s no way to know how many units are involved. It is business, but the major necessary revenues for MicroVision will probably be from licensing fees, royalties, and sales. At least, that’s what I gathered from the stockholders meeting.
  • “recently announced successful completion of development work” = Old news, therefore, no change in valuations.
  • “now transition to focusing on commercialization activities” = I thought they were already doing that. From some interpretations, commercialization, i.e. product launch and sales, were likely to commence in time for the 2014 holiday shopping season that is less than four weeks away.
  • “production readiness” = Suggests they are not not already in production, not even for an early 2015 product launch.
  • “initial production” = Confirms above.
  • “market launch” = Not a surprise, but there was that expectation that this holiday season would see such an event. Considering the production comments, it sounds like MVIS success is the seemingly permanent 6-9 months away.

Here’s how the market parsed the information.

  • MVIS drops $0.03 = Not a surprise.

Nothing else about the market is definitive because the market is not one thing; the market is an unorganized herd of conflicting motivations, incentives, and resources. Collectively though, they were underwhelmed by the $1.5M news even though they’d cheered early 2014’s $1.7M news.

Making sense of investing is never a completed task, because the markets continue to change. In the last 15 years the markets, the members of the investing community, have reacting to the Internet Boom and Bust, 9/11, The Great Recession, and lots of lingering unease. The logistics have changed dramatically, with far more computer influence now than then. The world has changed.

Some basic investing tools have not changed. In this case, parsing a press release continues to be the careful dissection of the phrases; seeing each as a piece of logic to be taken at face value first and interpreted later.

MVIS was not buoyed by the news. The next press release could already be scheduled as I type. Whether the good news is that close to good news or not, at this point I step back and re-collect the pieces. The company is making progress. They are getting paid for the progress by a returning customer, that customer has the potential to make very large deals, and that customer is not alone because MicroVision has several others that are quieter. I hadn’t expected MVIS to go up 40% on a $1.5M deal; but I take the drop as a sign that market is irrational, ignorant, or quietly aware of something I’m not. Yet, so it goes. That’s MVIS’ insufficient news, for now.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment