Hoping And Coping

Posted on November 15, 2024 by Tom Trimbath

Seeking solace? Answers? Ways to hope and cope? Or are you being more pragmatic and planning and adapting? You don’t have to pick only one. The only constant is change, duh. You know that. But knowing that may not seem like enough. As I sat here in my tiny house trying to decide what to type about, I realized that my quandary was about what to write about. Then I realized, it would be best to write about all of it; or as much as is practical considering certain practical limits in my life as a human. Here’s a quick tour of things I am considering.

Trust me. I’ll get around to my personal finance implications.

Politics
Can’t ignore it, even though I prefer not to write about it. Regardless of which party won in the US elections, tens of millions of voters were disappointed (#massiveunderstatement) The election didn’t resolve any issues or form any cohesive coalitions. Both parties are seeing internal fractures. Fractures are also happening outside of organized parties. That will be contentious, but maybe that’s what’s necessary to redefine or remove a duopoly.

Accelerationists
Some people want to drive the systems to failure because they see that as the way through to more than redefining and removing a political duopoly. Societal norms and technological advances should shift, too, so they seem to think. That may be true. Unfortunately, I haven’t heard of any accelerationists who, whether explicitly or out of ignorance, aren’t willing to sacrifice millions or billions of other humans. The richest may hope to ride it out and survive. I also haven’t heard of any who think the cause is so just, necessary, and noble that they will sacrifice themself.

Patches
People and organizations seem to be emboldened to refocus and concentrate their resources on more specific tasks. If global and national initiatives haven’t succeeded at changing societies and cultures, then maybe working at the local level can succeed. Some legal defenses may be required. Some legal offenses may also be required. Many lawyers will be employed.

Climate
Climate isn’t laughing through all of this. Climate is a noun, not an entity – unless you want to discuss Gaia principles. Climate doesn’t laugh or cry. Climate does what climate does. Humans, however, are witnessing changes that are no longer academic, regardless of pundits. Millions of people are relocating, or trying to use technology to enable life in increasingly harsh environments, or adapting and coping to an amazing degree because they can’t afford to move or spend money on counter-measures. 

Aliens
It’s never aliens, until it is. I think an undiscovered, terrestrial intelligence is unlikely, but more likely than another intelligence from within our solar system, and much more likely than another intelligence from outside our solar system. All of the above is possible, too. The base words in UFO and UAP are appropriate: unidentified, flying, objects, aerial, phenonema. None of those words are ‘extraterrestrial’ or ‘alien’. I contend that one possibility is that, IF, IF, they are a real ‘they’, they could be from Earth or within our solar system. We’ve explored very little of Earth’s oceans, and subterranean realms. IF, IF, our model of physics is correct, then traveling between planets is more likely than traveling between stars or galaxies. And, readers who have read my sci-fi novels Firewatcher and Fire Race may notice that I can conceive of extra-dimensional travel that ignores our currently accepted travel limitations. Or, they’re all just pretty lights confusing our armed forces. Shrug.

Artificial Intelligence
It has always been sad and entertaining watching governments try to keep up with technology. Governments had a chance until the start of the Industrial Revolution. Since then, well, they barely kept up with the railroads and haven’t updated those policies in decades. Ask Amtrak. So, now, artificial intelligence? It has more autonomy than climate does. AI really can laugh at the pace of politics. Debates continue on how to constrain AI, yet we can’t even contain spammers. AI will advance regardless of policies. Whether it ever achieves sentience or not, it will at least reach a level of perceived competence that challenges human skills. Note that I emphasize ‘perceived’. If true competence was an objective criterion for managing human society, very few politicians would be elected.

Implications
Much of what I described ignores Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs. That’s sad. It is also a possibility of an overlooked opportunity. Build your own life raft, both to protect yourself but also to provide safety to others. Granted, some of the accelerationists are building yachts and bunkers, but they are a silly few, and I am glad there are so few of them. 

Build your own life raft. Housing, food, and sanitation are a good baseline to establish. All of those things are available in a 16th-floor penthouse, but that is more fragile than some acreage on arable land above the flood one in a temperate climate with adequate rain. Add in education, especially if children are involved. Health. Healthcare is good too, but that doesn’t necessitate health insurance. Insurance is not care, I am sure. Add to your pyramid as is reasonable.

Be aware of the major changes, but first, react to your basic needs. That may involve activism, but reacting to your needs according to your values may mean buying from local farmers, even if it costs a bit more. If you can, grow your own. But don’t hide in a shell. Politicians may be poor managers, but they can enact policies that require a response, or a purposeful lack of one.

One major change seems to be happening in the investment world. (See. I told you I’d get around to finance.) Mega-corps are likely to continue to climb. At least in the near term, irrational ideologies may create irrational exuberance in certain companies and industries. Taking advantage of where supposedly serious people are being silly with their money can be profitable. I don’t have to indulge in their products to benefit from buying the company’s stock. Men are shaving their groins? Really!? Well, it isn’t much sillier than expecting women to wax and shave, and that’s been a big industry for decades. Maybe that’s how far such an industry can grow.

Casablanca
Casablanca keeps coming to mind, the movie, not the place. The thoughts keep coming back to Captain Renault. Bogart may have been the lead. Ingrid Bergman did a marvelous job. But, Renault’s character (expertly acted by Claude Rains) can be a role model for some. He was fictional, of course, but he represented an interesting character. Throughout much of the movie, he is seen as self-centered, an opportunist, the ultimate pragmatist. Close down this gambling establishment and thank you for my winnings. In the end, he is revealed to be someone who did what he could, with what he had, sometimes doing things he didn’t want to do, but eventually enabling a grander goal.

A grander goal.

There are many grand goals to strive for. Pick your own, within reason, of course. I continue to strive to make my life more sustainable, to help my community, and to take advantage of opportunities that happen to arrive. (I’m glad I bought LUNR, as a start.) And, Rick, I know why you did what you did, and saying good bye to Ilsa was the right and noble thing to do, but ouch! What a sacrifice you made. Ah, but it was all for the better…I hope.

PS Want a more mixed perspective? Steve Smolinksy and I have a podcast, IntriguingCreativity.com . The November 2024 episode was not about politics, but the consequences of politics – kinda.

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Maybe A Magna Carta Moment

Posted on November 8, 2024 by Tom Trimbath

The world is in turmoil – and has been. Today’s answer has been to hand out ears and hugs. Don’t take that literally. Ears were for listening. Hugs were for sharing. For those with the capacity, conversations were handy. Thanks to all for sharing. One conversation led to one insight that tied into another, which may mean we’re about to have another historic moment, what I am calling and planning for, a Magna Carta Moment. When things get too dysfunctional, find something more functional, even if you have to make it up.

For those readers reading this in the future (is it possible to read it from the past?), earlier this week was an election in the US. For readers in the far-enough future, the US stands for a country called the United States of America, which aren’t looking very united, and in America, which many assume only means North America but which Central and South American countries can point out is not all-inclusive. The vote was not unanimous. It never is. There is always dissension. So it goes.

But it may not always go as it has gone. Being ready for change can be academic, but this week, it looks very practical and pragmatic.

Governments change. Usually, the change is relatively peaceful. Occasionally not. The US did not experience a governmental change; it experienced an administrative shift. That shift may be dramatic, but most of the paperwork stays the same.

That wasn’t always the case. We humans probably started out as random groups of individuals. Eventually, our ancestors stabilized into tribes, then klans, then warlords, then… The changes didn’t happen all at once everywhere. Communications weren’t that omnipresent. Another eventually happened as some societies became kingdoms and monarchies. There were experiments in democracies and republics, socialisms, communisms, other -isms. Variations ensue. 

Governments were based on geography. Alvin Toffler’s book Powershift pointed out that, as technology and communication progressed, information would become more important that geography. The site of an army may not be as powerful as the concentration of the control of information. That may seem inevitable. Those who control physical power may react irrationally to the shift, the powershift, to those who control information. 

I’ve been thinking about the shift in power since I read the book decades ago.

The shift from tribes and klans to kingdoms and empires was barely within historical records. A more recent shift was recent in a relative sense, in 1215, when a bunch of barons told a king he had to obey the law, hence, the Magna Carta. Some violence preceded the event. More violence followed as rights were fought over. Centuries were involved. The monarchy was seen as losing, yet we still have monarchies. Some power brokers continue to like the authoritarian command of a king. Some people like having an individual in absolute control.

Seque to technology

We are also in a technological change. Debate if you want to, but whether Artificial Intelligence leads to a Digital Singularity may be moot. Technology is enabling a concentration of information, and information is power. One well-recognized author is Ray Kurweil, who I recommend for some perspective. I don’t agree with everything he says, but I think his looking-ahead is more useful than current politicians looking-behind.

As I wrote recently about my science fiction novel, Firewatcher;

The future is happening fast. 
Firewatcher started as an image and an idea in the mid-2010s.
…
At the time, several trends were projected to reach critical levels in 2100. Artificial Intelligence, climate change, and political and societal shifts were projected to alter our world. Media reports frequently used the term ‘conservative estimates.’
…
My read on the media was that 2100 was too far off. My suspicion for each of the affects could be more like 2040.
 
If the world was going to change that soon, I should write the book soon.

I wrote the book in a bit of a rush, and am glad. Governmental changes can span centuries. Technological changes are happening in terms of months. There is a potential that technology can make governments more moot than they want to be. The governments might not like that. Today’s turmoil may only be a precursor to greater turmoil. 

Turmoil doesn’t have to be bad, but it is usually unsettling. Planning for it is a guessing game with low odds, but maybe we must. Mm. No maybe about it. Plan, but don’t be surprised when the situations change again.

Turmoil at such a level can upset not just markets, not just currencies, not just economies, but the very concept of economies and currencies and markets. 

Nah. It will never happen. 

How many times has that been said and thought lately?

Another author I’ll add to the mix, but only for people who aren’t startled by the possibility of a Magna Carta Moment, Dan Simmons. Dan Simmons is an excellent writer. I know his work from his science fiction that implicitly postulates future economies and cultures far enough in the future that the characters don’t understand much of our modern life. In more academic terms, he writes about a post-scarcity economy. 

Or, skip the academic and think about the economy of Star Trek. The Ferengi deal with money, which confuses the folks on the Enterprise. Watching reruns may be easier than reading yet another book. Capitalism clashes with post-scarcity.

For me, I am going to skip those considerations in this post because I’m not trying to write that book. (There are other books on my list. Stay tuned.)

For now, we still have to make money to pay expenses to live. I continue to invest in stocks and companies. We may see less control over monopolies and oligarchies, which doesn’t work well for the small-cap stocks I invest in, but I am not sure, so I am watching. Companies that are more information-centric than geographic-centric are more appealing. Big infrastructures may not be able to adjust quickly, though space-focused industries may be at a critical and positive junction.

As I mentioned above, “Artificial Intelligence, climate change, and political and societal shifts were projected to alter our world.” Of those four fields, I think the first two are the soonest. “We will never forget!” proclamations have kept some societies anchored in stories from thousands of years ago. Climate change is happening now, but I think we’ve only seen the beginnings. A hundred years from now, we’ll still be dealing with it. Politics can change with a tweet, but systemic change is more likely to take decades. Equal rights continues to be resisted. Will WWJD become ascendant?

Artificial Intelligence can seem an abstraction and a distraction, but its changes can happen in months, and in the extreme, in minutes.

What’s a person to do?

Cope. Have values that you understand, not values imposed by others. Be compassionate and collaborative because no one is going through this alone. For me, I’m glad I am frugal – and wish I had a sustainable house on sustainable land that could sustain me through major interruptions.

Gotta work on that.

I doubt my friends are surprised that I’ll continue to write.

Friends are customizing their responses. Several are moving to seemingly safer places. Those who can’t move are interested in learning coping skills. One friend’s life has always had to deal with injustices, and they are staying. They’ve been exercising those skills for decades out of necessity, not choice. Their family has been doing so for generations. Whatever skill you seek, there’s probably someone out there who can teach it to you. Ask nicely.

There are many responses. Positive ones may be best. Learning to cope is better than not coping. Finding creative projects, particularly ones that are expressive and possibly profitable can be gratifying in multiple ways. New businesses are already forming so control stays close, not at someone else’s command. And then there’s “living far from the things of man.” (Hmm. May be time to rewatch Joe Versus the Volcano.)

Plans. Plans. Plans. Scenarios, possibilities, probabilities – bah! At some point, I remember to breathe, feel, watch, smile, listen, hug, and definitely dance. A slow waltz for contemplation, followed by some swing to fling the energies away? Those are things that we pesky humans have been doing throughout all of our history, no philosophizing or planning required.

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Reblog: Fire Race Launched

Posted on November 1, 2024 by Tom Trimbath
Fire Race Launched

I’ve got a new book! Yeah! And I also have a separate blog devoted to my writing. Someone asked for it, so all of those posts have their own home, and this blog can stick closer to personal finance – but sometimes books and finances are linked, so it all gets a bit messy. Hey, that’s like life! Fire Race is the sequel to Firewatcher, and the mid-point in an eventual trilogy. Click through for more of the story, or click to jump to the Amazon page (no other option, yet.)

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Undeferring Deferred Shopping

Posted on October 25, 2024 by Tom Trimbath

Let’s go shopping! About this time last year, I wrote the post, Undeferring Deferred Maintenance (September 2023). I had a breakthrough, or a breakdown, or whatever but I found a way to launch into some chores that had been deferred for too long, in some cases over a decade. That was the maintenance. This year is the shopping. The shopping is happening because I sold the house that I did the maintenance on. Hello, cash. Hello, moving. Hello, realizing it was finally time to replace a few, ha, a lot of things. Relief? For sure. An education? More than I expected. Lessons? Yep.

I just glanced at my hands while I paused typing this. Age and time change things. My skin has a few more wrinkles. Age spots have shown up. Surprisingly, some youthful scars are gone. 

It isn’t much of a surprise that it is time to replace worn-out things. We pesky humans can complain about aging, but we regenerate, at least partly. 

You will be spared the list of everything I bought, unless you want to zoom in on this picture. Soon after moving into my tiny house (mytinyexperiment.com), I taped a sheet of flip chart paper to the bathroom door. I realized the list of things to replace was so long that I had to take notes. As ideas came to mind, I wrote them down. The list grew and isn’t done. As things were bought, they were crossed off the list.

My lifestyle has improved.

My cash has diminished, but not much compared to what I made from the house. Most of the house proceeds went into buying my tiny house, about as much into investments, and as much into cash to possibly pay taxes (True Tax Relief). Compared to those buckets, the purchases are small. Compared to what I had last year, the purchases were impossible. 

I guess I am not a geek’s geek because I didn’t turn the list into a spreadsheet. I have saved all of the receipts, though. A quick estimate of the expenses is about $10K. That’s a lot of money, and it’s not.

Some of the larger items: computer, phone, washer/dryer, nice toaster oven, induction burner, etc. Plus a few major maintenance tasks: tree trimming, kitchen faucet, 100,000 mile maintenance. Let’s make that about $12,000.

For some folks, $10K to $12K would be like getting an extra job without having to go to work. For some folks, it’s the roundoff error in their IRA, which could be positive or negative.

For me, it is a reminder of how close a better lifestyle was, as well as how far away. It was tantalizing, as in Tantalus’ torment in Hades. 

Things work better now. I spend less time rigging up patches as fixes, knowing they are temporary. My equipment is much more capable. I’m using them as before, but I’m also practicing with their new features as they open creative possibilities that I’ve seen others exercise. Stay tuned for more videos and photo essays.

Things are also more difficult, now. Even my washer/dryer is run by an AI! Each machine could warrant a class, or at least a good owner’s manual, but at best I find a link, and sometimes only a QR code. Falling behind in upgrades also meant falling behind in the incremental educational lessons for a decade. (And here I pause as I hold myself back from venting about companies that mistake New for Improved.)

Breathe in. Breathe out.

Where was I? Oh, yes. Shopping.

And the deliveries.

It is tempting to imagine buying all of those things all at once. Instant Gratification. That’s what shopping malls were good for, one-stop shopping. Or Amazon, one-stop shopping in the biggest mall in the world, and maybe next-day delivery.

I slow that down. Pick what’s most urgent, or at least convenient. Ideally, buy a thing, wait for the thing, get the thing, unpack the thing, learn how to use the thing, then buy the next thing. Pacing. Of course, with some small things, it is okay to buy a few. Luckily, I’ve never had the UPS, USPS, and FedEx deliveries collide. 

Currently, I’m waiting for the bulk delivery of my newest book, Fire Race, the sequel to Firewatcher; and while I wait, I ordered some storage bins for my tiny house. After that comes a camera, and …

And, soon, the list will be largely complete. Ten years of deferred shopping has convinced me of how little I need. Doing without becomes a habit. But it is nice to quit trying to convince a ten-year-old laptop that the internet has changed in the meantime. (Zoom calls can be so embarrassing at the time and entertaining in retrospect.)

So, stay tuned as new books, photos, and stories come along. If only I can figure out the arcane language that alludes me when I try to Search or Find what I’m looking for. Is there an Index I can highlight with a pen and plaster with post-its?

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Fire Race And More

Posted on October 18, 2024 by Tom Trimbath

Yay! My book is published! Fire Race, the sequel to Firewatcher is available for sale on Amazon. (I suspect you can ask your library for a copy, too.) If the world was normal, this post would be about that and nothing else. The world isn’t normal. Here’s the “And More” part of the title, too. And, an insight into the value of time.
Fire Race Is Published

There’s always going to be a new reader who hasn’t met my bookshelf. Fire Race is my ninth book, my second science fiction novel, and the sequel to Firewatcher, a story about a bunch of humans that escape Earth to escape the AI threat before it threatens them more. In Firewatcher, they find the planet (Whew) and then find the aliens (uh oh) who aren’t aliens because they’re the locals and the humans are the aliens. They survive, and then find out about fire and seafood. That’s where the second book takes over. Can they race the fire? Thanks to all of the Firewatcher readers who asked for the sequel. And, there’s a sequel to the sequel. (And thanks to Joe Menth of Feather and Fox for making the cover happen.)

That took a couple of years.

This week was also the week when our podcast went live on Spotify. IntriguingCreativity.com is simply Steve Smolinsky and me talking about the weirdness of the world, unintended consequences, and how people somehow manage. Once a month, we play with our stream-of-consciousness, that usually starts out simple and somehow gets around to global issues. No script. Ten episodes so far. Stay tuned for more.

Getting onto Spotify took only ten minutes of talking to Sean Keeley (www.seankeeley.me/), and months of me trying to do it alone. Asking for help helps.

Then, earlier this week, I sat in on a County Commissioners’ meeting. I live in a mobile home park that accepts tiny houses, which is why I bought one and moved there five months ago. And, they’re selling the park. That story is too typical. I have no official job, but I happened to do something I evidently do well enough: I took notes and wrote them up. Now, they’re being referenced by some folks who couldn’t be there. Couple that with attending a presentation about affordable housing (expertly given by Jefferson County’s Housing Solutions Network), and the week held a lot of news that matters to me and my neighbors.
October Update – They Are Selling My Park

That story has been playing out since I got my first letter in the new house’s mailbox.

I needed a break. Friday afternoon, I decided to visit my storage unit and grab a paperback or two to read. A storm is blowing through, and if the power goes out, I want to have something entertaining that doesn’t require batteries. But first, swing past the mailbox. Hmm. Nothing much – except a ballot. Pick it up. Swing back home. Fill it out. Less than eleven minutes later I drove to a mailbox. Voted.

A friend noted that he can not recall any time when I haven’t been busy. 

It looks like I’m about to try. The book is done, but my copies haven’t arrived yet. The podcast is on Spotify, but there’s little to do about that until next month’s episode. My park may be for sale, but real estate transactions, especially ones involving affordable housing and a hundred households, can hit hurdles. And, I voted. I ignored a lot of the political commentary before. And I can go back to ignoring it now and later. 

Will I finally have some time off? Yes, and no.

A common bit of advice to writers is that writing a book is only half the job. Yes, and no. Take a look back at my first book, Just Keep Pedaling. It took 11 weeks to bicycle from an island north of Seattle to an island south of Miami, a year or two to write the book, and here I am still telling folks about the book decades later. That’s true of all of my books. Fire Race has a similar potential, partly because of the story partly because of insights about people and aliens experiencing dissension and resolution, and also for unintended consequences. At its core is the human reaction to deciding to escape an unconquerable threat, and dealing with the life that follows.

And then there’s the sequel.

But first, there’s the sequel to another of my books, the one about personal finance. Soon, I’ll start on From Middle Class To Millionaire To Mostly Muddling By – a rollercoaster ride through America’s wealth classes. Regular readers of this blog have been reading the years of notes that are its basis. Thanks for being there.

Time is precious. I definitely fill my time, but there are arguments, or at least discussions, about whether I fill it productively. So far, I have yet to fill it monetarily profitably. There’s a fine debate: is work worth doing if it doesn’t produce tangible worth? Ideally, yes. Realistically – well, the term starving artist is not new. 

OK. Time for me to close, edit, post, and then dine. Stop writing! At least for an evening, and maybe a weekend. Just let me write down some notes… 

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Reblog: October Update – They Are Selling My Park

Posted on October 15, 2024 by Tom Trimbath

A core personal finance issue that’s personal and real and larger than me. Terms like Affordable Housing can become so commonplace that they’re easy to ignore. Here’s a specific case that’s happening to my neighborhood. As I wrote in the post, “Of all the folks unlucky enough to be affected and in the room, I may have been the least unlucky.” Will a hundred households have to move, and if so, where and how?

Cross posted from one of my other blogs. (Yeah, I have a few.)

MyTinyExperiment.com – Can an over six-foot, over 200 pound, 65 year-old man live in a big tiny house – especially after writing about them for over ten years?

https://www.mytinyexperiment.com/blog/october-update-they-are-selling-my-park

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True Tax Relief

Posted on October 12, 2024 by Tom Trimbath

I wanted to start writing this Friday afternoon, but I was due to be interrupted by the delivery and installation of a $2,000 washer/dryer and didn’t want the writing to be interrupted too. Maybe I’ll pull some weeds in the meantime.

Done. And now, let’s begin.

This headache is more because there’s so much going on that’s good. It isn’t the ‘good’ that’s the issue; it’s the ‘so much’. My new washer/dryer is working as I type. (Washer Dryer Whew) (Interesting that the fridge picked this moment to sound sick.) Skip to the bottom for my good news about my next book, the sequel to Firewatcher. But this blog post is about the third good thing that may be a much bigger adjustment for now. Since I sold my house to buy this tiny house, I’ve held tens of thousands of dollars in cash in case one piece of advice was right. They were wrong. Sudden wealth, of a sort.

I do appreciate the free advice that tried to spare me from upsetting the tax authorities. Once upon a time, I was a realtor, so I was somewhat familiar with real estate taxes. My understanding was that the taxes were excused if the sale was of a long-time permanent residence (for a given interpretation of ‘permanent’.) I’d lived in the house for over a decade, so I thought I was clear. 

But… a well-meaning friend said that they thought otherwise. They thought that the tax exclusion had been temporary and that I’d have to pay capital gains taxes. Eep. In 2007, I bought the house for $291,000, and sold it in 2024 for $525,000 (as I recall.) That’s a lot of tax! 

That’s a lot of tax because, even after paying off debts (Debt Free Again), that’s a lot of money. OK. I pay my taxes, but ouch, considering that I was selling the house because it was no longer affordable. (Sad.) And yet, it is a lot of money that could also be invested. (Time To Buy But What) So, I estimated the possible taxes, added in some contingencies, guessed at how much I’d spend getting the new old big tiny house upgraded, threw in a buffer, and started investing the rest. Much math has been involved, well, just arithmetic.

The sale was five months ago. 

In the meantime, the companies I’ve invested in have had good news. Geron had FDA approval. Lineage Cell advanced clinical trials. Intuitive Machines won some nice contracts. D-Wave Quantum made nice progress in quantum computing. Their stocks, GERN, LCTX, LUNR, and QBTS have had varying success, but startups frequently have a poor correlation between company and stock performance. I’m patient. I’ll wait.

I coulda bought more, and am not dismayed that I didn’t. Now, I can.

Anxieties do not require logic. The prospect of being wrong about my taxes was immense enough that I avoided the topic while I did things like clear a tree from hitting the house, bought furniture, paid for storage, etc. I sold my house because I lacked public confidence that I’d be able to keep it. That lack of confidence was amplified by the suggestion that I’d have to spend tens of thousands in taxes, too. I thought I was clear, but I also was very aware that I am human. Maybe I was wrong.

Five months later, I had a moment when I felt confident enough to ask my trusted tax accountant how much I owed. The answer came a day later. Zero. My interpretation was correct. Whew. Big Whew.

That free advice cost me five months of anxiety. Logically, it didn’t have to be so. I could’ve asked the question sooner. As I mentioned, anxiety does not require logic. That lack of confidence made it easier to avoid the topic. Avoidance was easy because I also decided to take the time to find a new accountant in my new neighborhood. Unnecessary.

I don’t fault my friend who gave me that advice. Friends look out for friends. Don’t put your hand in the fire. Don’t get on that rickety ladder. Make sure you’ve turned off the breaker. They give advice to help take care of things we may overlook. Imagine their dismay if they’d said nothing, I’d spent too much of the money, and then found I owed tens of thousands as, perhaps, my stocks had done poorly. 

And now, here I sit, guessing that the noises from the washer/dryer are typical, normal, nothing to worry about. I get to adjust to this luxury. 

And now, here I sit, removing a massive layer of uncertainty from my life, and re-revealing resources that are readily available. Logically, that means a more secure financial future. Emotionally, it means I might go out to dinner a bit more, or visit the family plot, or – gasp – take a vacation?! Realistically, it means a new phone, a new camera, and … I’m sure I’ll think of something.

One friend observed that, since I almost lost my house a decade ago, I’ve exhibited symptoms of PTSD. The techniques the bill collectors used made a mark that I now get to remove. Hopefully, a light cleansing is all that is needed, not scrubbing with steel wool for the soul.

On another practical point, it also means I get to return to researching stocks. The recent batch were very technical: lunar exploration, quantum computing, solid batteries. One field of investing has also been profitable: silly things that many people spend money on that make me shake my head. Starbucks’ appeal made some sense. They taught me how to make tea (Kettle Pot Cup), but seeing friends take their kids, the next generation, to a coffee place looked profitable. I wish I’d listened to my own advice when I visited one of the early Costcos and wondered at the suburban-ites loading their SUVs with bulk buys. As for SUVs, I’ve been a fan of Jeeps for decades because I liked the mix of Sport with Utility in a Vehicle. Now, SUVs are rugged replacements for the family van, as if every family needs to blast up into the mountains and through streams to get to a scenic cliff every weekend. (For an example of how I used my Jeep, read Twelve Months at Barclay Lake.)

It might be time for me to look past the serious and see what’s silly now. There might be a wealth to pick from.

I will also take this tale of the impact of advice as advice for myself. Understanding how a person will take advice can be as important as the advice. Asking questions about the person, well, that should just be part of human nature.

The washer/dryer should be close to done. There are more loads to do. There is more writing to do. There is more research to do. But maybe after I do my chores, I’ll clean me, take myself out to dinner, and to a movie. Researching companies can come later. Living is more important.

Done with the post. My next chore for the day is to upload my next book to Amazon, my ninth, the sequel to Firewatcher. I’m eager to show you the cover and, of course, more eager for you to read and enjoy it. One thing at a time, eh?

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Stores Malls And Loyalty

Posted on October 5, 2024 by Tom Trimbath

Gag. I did it. I drove back into the heart of civilization, or at least its suburban edges. Shopping didn’t need to be done, and yet, the want was strong. My tiny house is outside a small town, which seems big compared to where I lived until recently, but such small places don’t have appliance stores. I wanted a washer/dryer. That went well, so far; a bit pricier than I expected. I learned a few things. I also solidified two stereotypes. Compare and contrast: someone who enjoys their work, and someone who seems to think showing up is sufficient. An interesting day, and one when a salesperson missed out on a $1,000 sale. The helpful one got a >$2,000 sale.

For those interested in the tiny house life, I’m chronicling mine on one of my other blogs, https://www.mytinyexperiment.com/. Can a man over 60, over two feet tall, and over 200 pounds live in a tiny house? Duh. 

Yeah. But, it doesn’t have a washer and dryer. My house is tiny, but barely so. In Jefferson County (WA), the cutoff seems to be 400 square feet. My house is 391 square feet. There’s enough room for a washer/dryer, but one hasn’t been installed. The house was built in 2006, so I guess there’s a good chance that there have been lots of laundromat trips since then. That’s a lot of quarters.

That’s what I’ve been doing since I moved in almost five months ago. It is fine, or at least fine enough. So, I don’t Need a washer/dryer, but it would save me a lot of time when all I want to do is wash my clothes after a hike or before a dance. Ten minutes there, ten minutes back, an hour and a half in the middle for the cleaning, and dollars in quarters. Then, of course, in the autumn of 2024, the laundromat is a central point for the pandemic, politics, and a slice of American life. 

Life is more than meeting needs. That’s survival, and a fine place to start, but living benefits from a little bit more.

Pardon me as I clear my throat because a washer/dryer is not “a little bit.” Eep! But, hey, I got a sale item for ~$2,000 (+tax). Tiny houses get to deal with specialized equipment that isn’t made in as great a quantity. The price goes up as the size goes down. Forget side-by-side. Think stacked appliances, or in my case with a bit of a splurge, a 2-in-1 unit: wash then dry without having to move the clothes from one machine to the other. Bonus: That leaves the space above the unit available to hang clothes, or install some shelves, or…

I think I calculated this somewhere, but I’ll do it here, just to be sure.

My new old (2006) tiny house : $76,500 / 391 square feet = $195/square foot
Washer/dryer ~ 30 inches wide and deep = 900 square inches = 6.25 square feet
The value of the house’s square footage occupied by the washer/dryer = $1,218

For me, that puts the price of the washer/dryer in some perspective. 

BTW the similar-sized tiny next door is new and ~$130,000. (Won’t you be my neighbor?) 
$130,000/$76,500 = 1.7
1.7 x $1,218 = $2,070

(Numbers truncated rather than rounded up because this analysis does not require that level of precision.)

The additional inspiration for this post was the person who worked me through the modern technology and prices. I didn’t ask if I could mention them by name, so please pardon lots of pronouns.

Let’s see. The last time I bought a washer and a dryer (seperate units) was 2005. Do you know prices have gone up since then? A close friend bought a nice pair several years ago, so I knew to expect more than ‘twist the dial and push it to operate it. I appreciate the honest laugh when my guess at electrian’s hourly rates was off enough to be an anachronism. And yet, he was professional and friendly, even before I bought anything. Stay tuned, because I’ll post the rest of the experience on one of these blogs after it is delivered, installed, and completed its first load.

That <$2,000 was an ouch (#understatement), but it was less than I was quoted at an orange Big Box Store. The place that got the sale was a local chain that specializes in appliances. They actually knew what they were talking about. The person in the orange Big Box Store seemed only interested in selling me the most expensive unit, even after I pointed out that there were cheaper units that would also fit. He said they wouldn’t. My tape measure and the manufacturer’s spec sheet said they all would. He didn’t get the sale.

Whew. It was a drive of dozens of miles to get to Silverdale, a fine town by the water, but it is known for its row of strip malls and big box stores. I’ll spare you some of the shopping trip and skip to the last stop.

I need a new phone. Well, maybe not need, but nine-year-old electronics are far past middle-aged. It is time to retire it. Besides, after my recent move, I’ve been updating lots of things I hung onto for years because I was in too much debt. Now that I am debt-free I can un-defer some deferred expenditures.

A new phone can be simple enough, but I’m also a photographer, post videos, and run a YouTube channel (search on tetrimbath). Ideally, I want a selfie-stick, not for selfies, but because with the right one, my phone videos would no longer make people seasick, or make them think the world is tilted. (Oh, no! The ocean is going to spill out of the frame!)

Welcome to a young man in the phone store. He looked relaxed and casual. Ready to sell me something. No waiting. 

As long as we were talking about the phone, he would point (literally) to a few of them. He knew which one had the best camera, but he didn’t know any of the specifics. He encouraged me to use any of them to find out more by exploring their settings. Anyone could do it. I asked the same question at a similar store months ago, but because of illnesses, it was a one-man show with a long line of people, some of whom were obviously anxious. But, at least he tried. He checked in with each of us to see if our issues could be easily resolved. I wasn’t in a rush. He was having a bad day. I wish him well.

Remember me mentioning the selfie stick? The one I plan to use is ~$250. It’s good. I’ll spare you the details. The phone that pairs with it is ~$1,000, plus a service plan. Today’s guy’s response was the same as with the phone. Basically, look it up yourself. Smile. I’ve had better service when buying a yoga mat. I bowed out, apologizing for imposing upon his time. I wondered if his seat was still warm.

Rather than being irate, I was disappointed. But then, his store was in a less-energetic location. It is in an old-style one-level shopping mall; basically, a strip mall with a roof over it. It is convenient, and much more relaxing than watching for the chaotic traffic of left turns and convoluted concrete parking lots. (I’m a fan of creativity, but when it comes to a commercial zone a grid can be a good thing.)

The big appliance store was a smaller chain, and off on its own. They have big boxes to handle, but they aren’t a big box store. And they’re friendly. 

The big box stores were along an interweaving and overlapping series of asphalt parking lots with no apparent organization. Not required, but appreciated. Also, some fascinating and incredible driving events. (Dude, your car sounds loud, but didn’t you see that the next light is only a few hundred feet away? A bicycle will get you there faster.)

Stereotypes. Don’t like ’em. Yet, my day of few data points was firming them up.

One other stop was a loyalty stop: REI. It is an (inter?)national outdoor outfitter, though I am old enough to remember it when it was one store between Pike and Pine (Seattle), the same era of Starbucks’ Pike Place market location.

There may have been more helpers than customers, but rather than simply showing up for work, they kept themselves busy, offering more help than I needed (but not too much), and with good stories about good hiking trips they’ve taken. (Congrats again on the Wonderland Trail. Been there. Done that. Miss it. One lap of Mt. Rainier and sights few others see.) 

One of my favorite Christmas presents was an REI jacket from about thirty years ago. Thirty years of hiking, skiing, bicycling, and, of course, everyday wear (as conditions suggested) and the elbows were thinning, the sleeves stretched out, and the main zipper would unzip itself. Oops. Time for a refresh. It took a while, but after looking past the clothes made more for fashion ($300?!) than for function, I found a replacement for $60. REI made, or at least an REI label.

Loyalty, frugality, friendliness, community, caring,… they’re worth something.

By the way, as my finances allow, I also may replace my fridge and swap out a propane range for an induction one equipped with a convection oven. I’m sure it isn’t even a guess of where I intend to shop for them.

Oh, and for that phone? That store in almost an hour in the opposite direction, and I’ll gladly make that drive.

As for the rest of my shopping: Shop Local with the businesses who are willing to live in a smaller and quieter town.

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Only

Posted on October 4, 2024 by Tom Trimbath

Only

I heard it on the radio. I was driving, the usual place I listen to the radio, when someone said, ”only’.’ They way they said it and the way they used it made me want to respond. ”only’?’ A lot of possibilities sit on the other side of ‘only’. Eventually, I found a safe time and place to make the note, but I forgot who said it or why. Sigh. And then, I started hearing it so often that it made me discount much of what people said – even regarding money.

If only, these people would wise up, or those people would do something or stop doing what they’re doing… 
If only, everyone gave $5… Sounds like money is most important.|
If only, people were better prepared… But it is impossible to prepare for everything.
If only, people were kinder, or stronger, or both… Unless they’re already at their limit.
If only, people pulled themselves up by their bootstraps. But maybe they don’t have bootstraps.
If only, people and businesses paid their taxes… Which they should, and evidently don’t, either by choice, or necessity, or ignorance.
If only, we switched to totally sustainable energy, farming, diets, etc.
If only, things were different. Well, yeah, duh. If things were different, things would be different.

‘Only’ is one of those words that can cover insurmountable efforts, incredible hurdles, fallacies, dreams, and disasters. There is an infinity  of IFs in an ‘only’.

For one day ‘only’…
For $x in ‘only’ several payments…

I’m playing with this word and mentioning it here because I’m recognizing that a lot of life is in ‘only’ this or ‘only’ that.

Skip the details. Rather than list too many instances of ‘only’, it is easier to suggest intentionally listening to what is actually said. ‘only’ discounts the rest of the sentence. 

‘Only’ can also bring honesty to advice. Strong declarative sentences are in fashion. Just listen to politics. Except for fundraisers, ‘only’ is left out of most sentences. If ‘only’ suggests there is more than one possibility. Sales pitches employ those possibilities in fear marketing, and a lot of marketing is fear marketing. Don’t miss out. You must take this medication. Society counts on you to do what we ask you to do. Feeling the anxiety? Feeling the pressure? Ah, but they say, if ‘only’ people would listen.

Of course, ‘only’ has other uses, but I hear ‘only’ in enough advertisements that it has gone past having the intended effect.

I pause in this less-than-literary post because I reflect on how many people are manipulated without realizing it. I guess two political parties trying to make it easy to see their point of view, ‘only’, has me reflecting on the people I know who live intentional lives, or at least try. Go back to one interpretation of frugality: respecting people, resources, and the world around us. Live sustainably. They impress me.

If ‘only’ more people would be like them.

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Give Ten Percent

Posted on September 26, 2024 by Tom Trimbath

“I feel guilty, but what am I supposed to do? I’m rich.” That’s what I heard from a wealthy patron of the arts at a film festival. It was obvious that she honestly felt guilt, but it was also obvious that she knew she’d done nothing wrong. What was she supposed to do? I shrugged – and then pointed out that she could keep doing what she was already doing, supporting the arts because that was a direct way to support artists. I don’t know what she thought of that idea because a friend of mine came over to say hello. And she was gone. It wasn’t until the next day that I thought of one answer that was new; give an extra ten percent.

I am sure some readers are echoing vows of poverty from religious orders. I only know one person who has done that, a highly successful salesman making five figures a month who gave it all, all, up and became a Buddhist monk. He has a sense of irony, so after ten years of intense meditation, he went back to school at a Jesuit college to get a masters. He ruffled feathers, and chuckled. He has plenty of stories of the people who never had to take the first step of giving it all up because they never had anything. I doubt that even he would suggest that everyone give it all away. It is simply too traumatic for many.

My conversation with the art patron was longer than a line or two. Giving to others doesn’t have to be a chore. She was a patron of a film festival. She mentioned that she always tried to buy local. She does what she can – and yet feels that it isn’t enough. I think she’s on the right track.

Tourist towns are pricey. (Loving Living Leaving A Tourist Town) The irony is that the people who make the town work get priced out by the people who pay for their work. They basically bid up the prices amongst themselves by demanding ever higher luxuries, which can be good for the local businesses; but, if prices go up faster than profits and wages, then the local owners and workers can be left behind. 

No one policy is going to fix that fiscal inequity. But…

She was already supporting the arts, and that can be extended to functional art. She was shopping at the local markets, not QFC or Safeway, but the places where neighbors work, the places that also purchase local products, produce, and harvests. Skip the latest chardonnay from some place states or countries away. The local winery, cidery, brewery, and even the dairy can appreciate your business. Indulge yourself. Hire out the lawnwork, the housework, the woodwork, the work work. Don’t flaunt it, but if you’ve got it and want to give it to someone else, maybe get something in return. (Though don’t underestimate the power of simple direct gifts. Sometimes, money is the thing that makes the biggest difference.)

And then I thought… No. I didn’t think. A thought bopped into my brain. Give ten percent.

When I give talks, I frequently point out that for the price of a nicer trim package of a new car, someone else could get out of debt, or pay some medical bills, or pay for child care, or, or, or… But, it isn’t necessary to deny yourself that sweeter ride. If you have the money, buy it, and then donate an equal amount as that trim package to someone or some charity. Another way to do that, give ten percent.

Imagine ten people who paid for roof work, each donating ten percent. Those ten people could be paying for replacing a dangerously leaky and deteriorating roof. That’s assuming the ten people had the same size roof as the roof that needed radical repair. It is more likely that the worst roof is also the smallest roof, which would mean there’d be more than one household benefiting. Pick your area of philanthropy. Structural, medical, educational, some other -al. 

The idealist in me says do it because it is the right thing to do, and the realist in me knows that many people would only do it if they could claim it on their taxes. I’ve been there, back when I was much wealthier.

Pardon this somewhat long story, but one time, I accidentally sat in on a meeting of foundations. I thought it was a talk about the philosophy of philanthropy, and it was, but there were only a few other folks there. They represented organizations at the level of Ford Foundation and Carnegie debating their philosophical conundrums. (My apologies that I can’t recall the exact ones. This was over a decade ago.) After we realized my mistake, they invited me to stay. I called what I did ‘checkbook philanthropy’. They liked it. I gave a few dollars here or there. I didn’t have much, but sometimes someone or a small business doesn’t need much – including no strings. I didn’t get the tax benefits, but I also didn’t get the paperwork hassles. 

The foundations were frustrated because their bylaws and such meant paperwork had two extremes: pure philanthropy with no return, or conventional investing and expectations of a return on their investment. If they found someone or some organization that was doing good things and might only get half of their money back, they were stuck. They felt that they couldn’t help innovators, struggling socially conscious companies, or idealistic individuals who might help an economy. They also knew that they were giving money to people who knew how to play the system, and couldn’t help people who truly needed it but were so busy that they didn’t have the time to find out about the funding, or how to apply, or how to qualify for the right tax status.

At a very basic level, we are allowed to give money to each other. It can be hard to know how much to give. Monks may give away everything, but the monastic life is too limiting for almost everyone, I expect. Someone who is poor can wonder why someone rich doesn’t give it all away. Giving it all away means having nothing left. Paying taxes is a first step; no dodging, no shelters. Giving nothing is tempting. (The cries of ‘mine’ and ‘more’ conjure reminders of Madonna’s character in Dick Tracy and Edward G. Robinson’s character in Key Largo.) Give ten percent may be worth a try to those who have sufficient comfortable excess, to those who have a bit of that honest guilt.

Her honest guilt is rare, yet it is an undercurrent within the conversations of wealth inequality. The counter undercurrent is, why don’t the rich give more, especially when the people who need it are the people who are serving the ones with more than enough. One problem (of which we have so many) is how to have that conversation. I’m not sure how. But, if people voluntarily added an extra ten percent to whatever luxury they bought, there might be less guilt and a lot more good.

Buy a season ticket to a baseball team, donate ten percent to the local little league. Buy a ticket to the opera, donate ten percent to a local music program. Buy a new wrought iron railing, give to a local vocational school. 

I know. I know. I’m a silly stupid idealist. Except that, for a small time in my life, I was able to do such things. I was quite quiet about it. I was so quiet about it that a friend liked something I did, so they gifted me a similar sum – without realizing I wasn’t in need (at the time.) They mistook my frugality by choice for frugality by necessity. Ironically, in their version, it didn’t matter. They figured I could pass it along if I wished. It was a gift, no strings attached.

And another friend was so generous during one of my toughest times that I don’t know if I’ll ever be able to repay that debt. They made an existential difference in my life. Hmm. If I win the lottery…

And, really, personal philathropy, even anonymously, was much more gratifying than writing a check to a 501(c)(3). Both are good, but one brought much bigger smiles.

(This following paragraph just popped up. Didn’t plan to get here, but while I’m here, well, here it is.)

If it seems like this has been on my mind, that’s because it is. I’m finishing up my next book (the sequel to Firewatcher). After that, I am going to start on the sequel to Dream. Invest. Live. Dream. Invest. Live. is the basis for this blog. Long-time readers know that I’ve been on a financial roller coaster for decades. The sequel’s working title is ‘From Middle Class to Millionaire to (Mostly) Muddling By – a roller-coaster ride through America’s wealth classes.’ I’ve been taking notes along this accidental ride. We are all in this together, but there are few that seem to feel that we are truly together. Hopefully, I can at least point out a perspective or two or three or more about topics like housing and the rest. Stay tuned, and hold on. It’s been an incredible ride.

And, really, personal philanthropy, even anonymously, was much more gratifying than writing a check to a 501(c)(3). Both are good, but one brought much bigger smiles.

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