Semi Annual Exercise EOY 2024

Posted on December 31, 2024 by Tom Trimbath

Well, that certainly wasn’t dull. A little over six months ago, I sold my small house near a tourist town on an island, and moved to a big tiny house near a tourist town on a peninsula. Hmm. That doesn’t sound like much of a change, but it is the easy part to see and visualize. A little over six months ago, I had a mortgage and a home equity loan with no money left for repairs and maintenance, and now am debt-free even as I spend money for improvements. Oh yeah, and I was able to buy back into the stock market. I’ve gone from 20 months of dwindling cash reserves to about three years of cash reserves to, since the election, at least a decade of cash reserves. Whew. Yay. Happy New Year.

Call it wisdom, or timing, or luck, or manifestation, or whatever. I didn’t sell my house at a peak (Zillow thinks it has gone up ~8% since then), but if I was going to have to sell, I wanted to sell without worrying about elections. My worry was that, if Social Security was purposely destabilized, the real estate market and the economy may both suffer. If millions of people couldn’t afford their homes, they may glut the market as they sold their biggest investment, their house, for cash. I was trapped by that in the Great Recession (the Second Great Depression) and didn’t want to be trapped again. I found a tiny house that I liked well enough (MyTinyExperiment.com), gave myself enough months for my house to sell, it sold quickly, which meant I was clear and settled in (a non-trivial experience) in time for the election. Whew. I’m glad I did what I did. 

And now I finally get to the stock stuff. The details are scattered throughout several months of this blog’s posts. I started with a portfolio barely large enough to buy a good used car, and took about a third of the house sale’s profits to buttress existing positions (GERN, MVIS, LCTX), bought new positions (LUNR, QBTS, SLDP), held one third for cash contingencies, and held one third for possible taxes. Wait a few months while I move in and learn that, as I suspected, I’d owned my home for long enough that I didn’t have to pay taxes on the sale. That third then went into buttressing those positions, plus adding another (GMGMF). Along the way, I sold stock in two companies that had great ideas but questionable executions (WNDW, SOLO). 

But, how did it go?

GERN – I expected more of GERN because they finally received FDA approval for one of their cancer treatments – but the stock has drifted down. I wonder if management understood the technical and medical side, but not the business side. Or am I merely impatient. 2025 will decide that.

LCTX – Right behind GERN, and somewhat historically related, I thought the stock would progress because the treatments for spinal cord injuries and dry-eye macular degeneration were proceeding. But now, they’re threatened with delisting. How’d that happen? I worry.

MVIS – MVIS had great promise and didn’t deliver? Yep. As always -but there’s a recent update that I hope to remember to mention later in the post.

XOS/SOLO and WNDW – They tripped, fumbled, stumbled, and became nuisances more than investments. If they turn around the returns may be great, but I simplified by selling them. I do these semi-annual reviews for just such a reason. I felt the lottery would be more likely.

And that was for the stocks that I’ve held for years/decades.

Now for the stocks I’ve held for months.

LUNR – Their lunar lander fell over, but it did land. And then, they landed a multi-year, possibly >$4B NASA contract, and the stock did very well. And then Elon Musk was elected, rumors were born that NASA’s workload might go to more commercial companies, and the stock became exuberant. As I type this, the stock is up >400% in six months. 

QBTS – Quantum computing is enticing, but the risks are high as there’s been too little evidence of its usefulness to properly value the stock, so it languished – and then Google produced an example and QBTS rose and rose. As I type, the stock is up >600% in six months. It rose enough that I sold off a fifth of my holding and reclaimed my original investment. The rest is profit. 

SLDP, GMGMF – Solid batteries aren’t engaging for small talk, but more folks are driving electric vehicles, people want longer battery life, and more are aware that Lithium-ion batteries have some safety issues. If something can charge quicker, go farther, be safer, and not cost too much, it might be a competitor. Both companies are working on that. SLDP may be farther along (I think), and GMGMF has higher risk but some amazing possibilities from their graphene-based approach. GMGMF is too new in my portfolio. SLDP, however, had fallen until the middle of December. It has doubled since then.

I find it interesting that the stocks I’ve held for decades have been outperformed by the stocks I’ve held for months – and then MVIS almost doubled since mid-December as well because they might finally increase production on something, anything.

With performances like these, it is easy to get into dream mode (Dream. Invest. Live.). But as I mentioned in a previous post, I may also be witnessing irrational exuberance. I’ve seen it before, as well as its consequence. I’ve benefited from it before, but trusted too much to logic when it became irrational pessimism. 

I am dreaming, and planning, and watching. Politics isn’t the only effect to watch in 2025. I think AI is far enough along to already be disruptive, and I see no reason for its reach and velocity to find a reasonable limit. Climate change isn’t changing its timeline because we continue to debate it, as if debating a house fire while standing inside it makes sense. Individuals and corporations are, however, acting, hence the desire and need for energy efficiency, decarbonization, and mobilization advances. I also think urbanization is swinging to de-urbanization because remote work, education, and living are more sustainable on an individual level, hence the demand for decentralized power and connectivity. These trends aren’t the only ones, but they’re busy now, and therefore worth watching. 

Whew. Is that enough? Is that enough for a portfolio review? It is for me, and that’s who I do all of this for. So, while I do it, I might as well share it. I hope you’re find it useful, even if only as an example of what you can do for you.

And, I still buy lottery tickets.

Read on. And good luck.

Below are my synopses of my stocks.

INTRO Here’s my semi-annual exercise to see if I remember why I own the stocks I own, and so I can check back and see if their stories have changed. I post in case it helps others too.

D-Wave Quantum

QBTS (market cap is $2.44B was $0.183B)

D-Wave Quantum, more easily typed as its trading symbol QBTS is one of the leading quantum computer companies. Harken back to the early days of the PC when folks and organizations wondered what the rest of us would use a computer for. To me, quantum computing represents a larger shift across society than the PC did in its era. It is an unknowably large market. Another way of describing that: no one knows but many people hope – even if they don’t know why.

QBTS seems to be in the midst of clearing a hurdle to commercialization. The company has gone from lab tests and theoretical applications and benefits to real demonstrable results, but not to a consistent business model, yet. Is it on that cusp? Large cash flows have swept into the investment field for QBTS and its competitors. I don’t mind; that’s why I buy small overlooked companies. Frequently, I have to wait years for them to be found. This time, it was only a few months. I’m not complaining.

On the technical and conservative side, I’d feel more confident with verifiable use cases that lead to consistent revenues. That may take a few quarters because the large revenues are usually tied to large, conservative companies. Another possibility is a buyout from one of those trillion dollar companies. Another catalyst can be quantum computing’s interactions with AI (Artificial Intelligence). Both technologies are in a similar state. Coupling them is likely to have unintended consequences. 

In the meantime, QBTS’ price has certainly been dynamic.

DISCLOSURE LTBH since 2024, i.e. bought recently, maxed out my personal arbitrary share limit, and then sold enough to recoup my initial investment.

(One Company One Video on YouTube – https://youtu.be/Un2k2JFm7fE)

(I’ve also collected links to the other discussion boards and my other stocks over on my blog. https://trimbathcreative.net/)

INTRO Here’s my semi-annual exercise to see if I remember why I own the stocks I own, and so I can check back and see if their stories have changed. I post in case it helps others too.

Intuitive Machines

LUNR (market cap is $2.77B was $0.404B)

Intuitive Machines, more readily typed as LUNR, is an aerospace company helping create the part of the space economy that deals with the Moon. They let others launch the rockets and LUNR deals with the satellites, landers, and such. The sky’s the limit? Ha! They’re beyond the sky. They’re also literally on a frontier that is mostly empty, which can be a good thing or a bad thing. So far they’re proving themselves through several successful missions, and have been treated with greater grace than I expected after their lunar lander fell over. 

I spent just enough years working on rockets and satellites to appreciate their efforts, many of their risks, and have a hint of their potential. My ultra-short synopsis for starting conversations is that, while not exactly the same, LUNR may be for the moon what SpaceX is for everything. Note ‘may’. Rockets blow up. Landers fall over. Equipment breaks and can’t be repaired. But/And they’re actually doing it, not just talking about it.

One twist from the US Presidential election is that at least some of NASA’s role may be shifted to commercial vendors. That may explain some of the enthusiasm for LUNR’s stock. I expect chaos. I also recognize that, if LUNR’s management is thinking ahead as I am, LUNR’s business opportunities may suddenly become broader. It may not be something for them to act on, but it should be worth creating contingency plans. 

Regardless of politics, I invested in LUNR because I have been a fan of space commercialization since 1976. (Go L5!) I hoped it wouldn’t take this long, but I’m glad if I can be a part of it at least this way.

DISCLOSURE LTBH since 2024, i.e. bought recently and intending to hold as the industry advances.

(One Company One Video on YouTube – https://youtu.be/fzVaEu7mty0)

(I’ve also collected links to the other discussion boards and my other stocks over on my blog. https://trimbathcreative.net/)

INTRO Here’s my semi-annual exercise to see if I remember why I own the stocks I own, and so I can check back and see if their stories have changed. I post in case it helps others too.

Solid Power

SLDP (market cap is $0.341B was $0.292B)

Solid Power is a company that makes solid batteries. Simple enough? Many batteries in electric vehicles and devices use a liquid to conduct the chemistry and hence the electricity. While Lithium-ion batteries are ubiquitous, they are also fragile and dangerous. Solid batteries are more robust and safer. In my opinion, the technology that enables today’s Li-ion batteries is due for a generational shift. One option is to go to solid state, hence my investment in SLDP.

Solid Power is using sulfide-based electrolytes. I’d like to claim that I understand the electro-chemical nuances, but I will admit to ignorance. That is one reason I conduct this semi-annual portfolio, to highlight to myself deficiencies in my knowledge of the company that warrant more research from me. My assessment of the likelihood of a shift is based on some of my tracking of SLDP’s news, but also because I am now aware of the impressive number of startups working on the next generation of batteries. SLDP may be the best, or not. But, are they good enough to become profitable? The number of batteries required for our mobilized and decentralized civilization suggests a market large enough for several suppliers.

I will continue to Hold, and I will research further as well as possibly make at least one other investment in the industry.

DISCLOSURE LTBH since 2024, i.e. bought recently and intending to hold as the technology advances, hopefully to profitability because this could enable greater sustainability in my estimation. I was about to buy more near the end of 2024, hesitated, and missed what looks like a good opportunity. 

(One Company One Video on YouTube – https://youtu.be/Xs2kxJgHr0I)

(I’ve also collected links to the other discussion boards and my other stocks over on my blog. https://trimbathcreative.net/)

INTRO Here’s my semi-annual exercise to see if I remember why I own the stocks I own, and so I can check back and see if their stories have changed. I post in case it helps others too.

Graphene Manufacturing Group

GMGMF (market cap is $0.062B)

Graphene Manufacturing Group is developing higher-performance batteries, as well as other products partly enabled by incorporating graphene into the product. Ideally, graphene allows higher densities or smaller packing than standard lithium-ion batteries.

To me, lithium-ion was obviously an industry-changing advance, but is also a technology ready for a generational change. They’re proven the adoptability of mobile electrical devices in everything from laptops to planes, trains, and automobiles. Their use has also revealed problems with politics, supply chains, special materials, waste disposal, safety, and performance issues like range anxiety. Solid batteries and advances like the use of graphene may be that next generation.

GMGMF is small, but with good exposure and at least some commercial success. They are also an Australian company, which may be less problematic than Chinese companies, but may also be more problematic for US investors.

DISCLOSURE I tend to LTBH, but only bought GMGMF recently. Circa 2023, I produced a video about the company on my One Company One Story YouTube channel.

(I’ve also collected links to the other discussion boards and my other stocks over on my blog. https://trimbathcreative.net/)

INTRO Here’s my semi-annual exercise to see if I remember why I own the stocks I own, and so I can check back and see if their stories have changed. I post in case it helps others too.

Geron

GERN (market cap is $2.14B was $2.52B)

Geron (GERN) is an advanced biotech company that has recently (finally?) received FDA approval for their first treatment, a telomere-based technology for treating a type of blood cancer. They have other treatments in their pipeline, but my main interest is this first treatment because of the FDA approval. The approval enables GERN to more confidently advance other treatments, ideally in unmet areas with little competition.

My main concern is that I expected the approval to more immediately find use, acceptance, and subsequently revenues. Not yet. Is it just a matter of patience? One possibility is that the company has been in development mode for so long that they are having a slower or more difficult time transitioning to marketing, treatments, – and the revenues they need for sustainability. Another possibility may be a reliance on a buyout. For humanitarian reasons I hope all that is required is patience. For investment reasons I hope they advance the treatment and the company by remaining independent.

My experience with the first occurrence of Dendreon (DNDN, https://trimbathcreative.net/?s=dndn) dampens my enthusiasm. They had an FDA-approved cancer vaccine, were actively undermined, the bad guys were found guilty, but the shareholders lost their money, or at least I did. Hopefully, that won’t happen this time.

DISCLOSURE LTBH since 1999 and continuing to hold. I bought more after selling my house.

(I’ve also collected links to the other discussion boards and my other stocks over on my blog. https://trimbathcreative.net/

& from my One Company One Story series on YouTube 

https://youtu.be/su1AMjPEkLI )

INTRO Here’s my semi-annual exercise to see if I remember why I own the stocks I own, and so I can check back and see if their stories have changed. I post in case it helps others too.

Lineage Cell Therapeutics

LCTX (market cap is $0.110B was $0.165B)

Lineage Cell Therapuetics (LCTX) is a leading edge biotech primarily focused on treating spinal cord injuries and macular visual degeneration via stem cells. They have demonstrated at least partial success in both and have been making progress towards applying for FDA approval. Even their partial success exceeds competitors’ accomplishments, as I understand it. Because so few treatments exist, if any, there is hope that the FDA process may be expedited – but bureaucracies can be quite conservative.

I am encouraged by the progress, but dismayed by the lull in advancing the narrative and any news from the regulatory authorities. I am discouraged by the significant drop in the share price and wonder if there is significant unreported news, or is the investing community witnessing a short episode unrelated to the company’s progress?

DISCLOSURE LTBH by habit, but having to remember that my LCTX/BTX holdings came from AST (2014) which was spun off from GERN (which I’ve held since 1999). I hear patience pays, but it is easy to have doubts after twenty years of waiting. I recently purchased additional shares from cash from a real estate sale.

(I’ve also collected links to the other discussion boards and my other stocks over on my blog https://trimbathcreative.net/
& from my One Company One Story series on YouTube 

https://youtu.be/xQ5Q4uWoQ4o )

INTRO Here’s my semi-annual exercise to see if I remember why I own the stocks I own, and so I can check back and see if their stories have changed. I post in case it helps others too.

MicroVision

MVIS (market cap is $0.287B was $0.213B)

I’ve been Holding and watching MVIS for over two decades. Pardon me as a copy&paste seems most efficient. (Some edits added, but nothing signficant because nothing seems to have changed except details.)

Another era of MVIS doldrums. Very little new news relative to the previous years/decades.

It is tempting to simply copy what I wrote at the end of 2022, so I will; then, I’ll add more (but very little because so little has changed.).

“Oh, MicroVision; will it be yet again another 6-9 months, or 9-18 months, or longer?” Well, it hasn’t been any of the previous hoped-for periods for the last twenty years – though there was that time of flirting with hope…” (circa 2021).

MicroVision is a electronics component manufacturer developing, and to some extent selling, elecro-optical units based on a chip-sized oscillating mirror. It is a simple and ingenious design defended by a long list of patents. Currently the greatest public hope for the company are the LiDAR sensors targeted at the autonomous vehicle market. MicroVision’s advantage is based on the chip’s scalability, the lack of pixel-sized constraints (as compared to LEDs), lower power requirements, and small package.

Before LiDAR, the company targeted short-throw projectors, projectors embedded in smartphones, augmented reality eyewear (see Hololens and more), as well as game controllers, bar code scanners, and orthoscopes. And probably more. The company has always operated under constraints from NDAs, the need to protect competition sensitive product developments, and some exclusive contracts that were ill-suited for the company, in retrospect. 

It is easy to imagine that the company wasn’t persistent enough in pursuing some of those products as they were first movers in those fields. Now, competition has caught up. Also, corporate hopes pinned on singular products languished if the product or customer failed to deliver. Each CEO also resteers the company to distinguish their era from the previous one. The effect has been for the company to be seen as a tech test bench play shop that is dependent on demos and customers rather than faith in the company’s products to lead to financial success.

I remember when… Once upon a time, profitability was described as a possibility for 2003. (Previous notes had a note also suggesting 2023. Irony?)

As stated above; “Oh, MicroVision; will it be yet again another 6-9 months, or 9-18 months, or longer?”

If it succeeds, its rise may be magnificent, which is one reason to own shares now. My shares are now old enough to have graduated college, worked for a few years, then gone back for a Masters, started a family, had kids, and watch them enter school. How much longer will it take for something positive, significant, and quantifiable to finally happen? 

For even more details, follow my blog’s tags for MicroVision and MVIS, which reach back a decade.

https://trimbathcreative.net/tag/microvision/

https://trimbathcreative.net/tag/mvis/

DISCLOSURE LTBH since 1999 (though the very first shares are gone). Dilution means that I no longer have more than enough if the company finally succeeds and the stock reaches the heights I think are possible. Oddly enough, a cash infusion from another source and the depressed price made it easy and cheap to buy back in, not because I know anything new but because the market is exhibiting irrational exuberance which might include MVIS; and because some day, some day…

(I’ve also collected links to the other discussion boards and my other stocks over on my blog https://trimbathcreative.net/

& from my One Company One Story series on YouTube 

https://youtu.be/NJRgHJBW3M8 )

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A Week To Not Ignore – December 2024

Posted on December 27, 2024 by Tom Trimbath

Really. I was going to take this week off. But how could I ignore the stock market this week? Usually, at best, there’d be a Santa Clause rally, which I never believed in. This year saw a rally around the holiday, which seemed more like an accelerated reprise of the Internet Bubble’s irrational exuberance. (Is the Internet Bubble so long ago that many don’t remember it? Wow.) This is a good time to capture my thoughts for me and for anyone else who is interested. Times like these are surprisingly easy to forget. 

Last week’s post (Done With Stock Shopping – Not) was also supposed to be a quiet week, but some stocks got busy, so I thought I should mention them. 

A month ago, some stocks got busy, possibly because of the election (Election Impact – 2024). The companies had good news, but I didn’t think it warranted their rise, and I wasn’t complaining.

November 29, 2024 – LUNR up  ~96%, QBTS up ~165% in 1 month
December 20, 2024 – LUNR up ~270%, QBTS up ~ 520% in 6 months
December 27, 2024 – LUNR up ~419%, QBTS up ~761% in 6 months

Google Finance
Google Finance

OK. OK. I can rationalize that away as a continuance of the election impact. Maybe aerospace will shift from government to commercial because Musk is running things. Maybe quantum computing will surge as defense money goes into tech, or because Google Research did some good work, or, – it’s all a guess. Not complaining. Took enough profits out of QBTS to recoup my initial investment. May do the same with LUNR in a bit, but…

If that was all there was to the story, then there isn’t much need to document an extrapolation of expectations.

And then this week happened to more of my stocks.
Two biotechs didn’t do well: GERN -7.97%, LCTX -4.42%. But that’s the same trend as before. (Come on, folks, you’re making progress. Why doesn’t anyone seem to care?)
I already mentioned LUNR and QBTS, but there they are with my other stocks from this week.
GMGMF up 8.79%
LUNR up 48.19%
MVIS up 60.60%
QBTS up 68.54%
SLDP up 88.50%

MVIS is on that list. MVIS! Long-time readers can know how rare that is. SLDP, another one known for languishing, relatively, was busy. Most of these moves are on barely any news. 

Cue a tiny bell ringing from the historical backroom of my stored memories. This looks like exuberance (action without solid justification) within a normally stodgy environment (almost irrational). The previous time I heard much about irrational exuberance was when the Fed chairman was worried about an unstably optimistic investment community just prior to the Internet Bubble bursting. Uh. Uh oh?

Mega-corps have been becoming more mega, even reaching valuations measured in trillions. We may even see the anointing of our first trillionaire. 

Some scenarios:
> That rising tide is finally lifting all those boats. (But is there enough wealth for everything to rise?)
> Folks teetering at the top of that crest are realizing it may be time to trade ballistic stocks for smaller, overlooked companies that are yet to launch. (Sell high, then buy low is an old standard.)
> I’m brilliant or lucky or finally about to be vindicated by having my stocks found. (Ha! Well, maybe a little, and hopefully more than enough. A person can dream.)

I don’t know which scenario is most likely and don’t expect to know. Current politics has been highly irrational, and trying to evaluate an irrational mob using rational criteria is irrational. When chaos reigns, don’t act as if you are in control. But don’t ignore it either.

Not ignoring it is why I’m writing this, even though there’s a dance in a little bit and I might want to get ready for it.

Chaos theory is called that because, even if there’s an underlying pattern, what we see can seem chaotic and unpredictable. The stock market has always been thus, and now maybe moreso.

This is happening as I prepare My Semi-Annual Portfolio Review. Usually, I can start preparing it weeks in advance because stocks move slowly as brokers hit the holidays. The early work I did this year will have to be redone. OK. That’s part of being a responsible investor.

The good news I’ve seen as I refresh my thoughts is that there is good news for GERN, LCTX, LUNR, MVIS, QBYS, and SLDP. I’ll chronicle it in the Review. Whether from company performance or irrational exuberance or whatever, my personal finance situation has improved dramatically. The enabling event was selling my house (which produced cash), which got me out of debt (as I traded debt payments for rent on land for my tiny house), which freed up capital (which was well-timed, evidently.) 

Pardon me as I leave any narrative structure behind to capture something I alluded to last week, implicitly. Nine months ago, I had 20 months of reserves before drastic action might be required. I didn’t want to wait too long because there was enough turmoil in the world that the economy might shift enough that selling my house and paying my debts might become much more difficult. I am glad I did what I did, when I did, and how I did it. Being house-trapped before the Great Recession (the Second Great Depression) was traumatic. After selling my home, I had ~3.5 years of reserves, a great relief that is demonstrably healthy. The stock market’s actions this week led to an estimated >8 years of reserves. It might be more by now. That financial transition is requiring a non-trivial emotional transition. Over a decade of scarcity trained me into reactions that I am now unwinding, partly thanks to a mental health counselor. The rest of the task is up to me. It isn’t fashionable to say, but money changes mindsets. I know poor people who don’t want to hear about someone else’s good fortune. I know rich people who don’t want to acknowledge that poverty exists unless they can blame the poor. We are a dysfunctional society. Within a short time, I’ve been riding that roller coaster through America’s wealth classes. I haven’t reached the highest highs or the lowest lows, but I could see them from where I was. Now, as the ride progresses, I recognize the difficulty in finding a balance within this world we created. Stay tuned. I don’t know where it’s going, how we’ll get there, and what I’ll do along the way, but this is a time to be aware, responsive, responsible, and compassionate.

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Done With Stock Shopping – Not

Posted on December 20, 2024 by Tom Trimbath

I was expecting a quiet week. Selling books and photos was in the online mode, i.e., hands-off because deliveries needed time too. It looked like a good week to catch up on a rare season of stock investing after years of hardly any activity. (Stock Shopping – 2024) Having cash from a house sale made the difference. There were spreadsheets to update, some light research as usual, and beginning the draft of my semi-annual portfolio review. Then, what the…?! The stock surge from the reconciling of the election uncertainties (Election Impact – 2024) surged again, like waves in a bathtub. This could get messy. Let’s get busy.

Skip the chamomile, and its soothing properties. I needed assam, black tea, straight, no honey. It should be hot, but I’d be so distracted that I knew it would cool by the time I was done. (Irony, got a new delivery of teas and herbs from Dandelion Botanical. It might be Christmas morning before I open the box. A gift to myself! Also, an excuse to mention my book about tea in modern America, Kettle Pot Cup, a fundraiser for tea pickers.) 

Check my Twitter (won’t call it X, and now on Bluesky) feed (@tetrimbath) to track most of what I buy and sell, or the tail end of one of my recent posts. The definitive list is in the semi-annual portfolio review – and I’ll get back to that. Within the last two weeks, every day has seen a Buy or a Sell as I bolster some positions, eliminate others, and even take profits. (Gasp! Actual profits? QBTS has been a ride.)

One measure of my portfolio’s performance has been a ten-fold increase in the values of the transactions from before I sold my house. That heightens the adrenaline and shifts some perspectives. Fortunately, I’ve been through this before. Remember those lessons about balancing logic with emotion, objective math with subjective values. It can all feel like a game. It can all feel vital. Investing has a mix of those two vital points of view.

A quick check of my stocks (thanks to Google Finance for when I want a faster answer than the more official one from my brokerage, Schwab) shows that over the last week, most of my stocks have seen double-digit percentage moves. For reference, traditionally, a conservative expectation for stock performance is 7-10% per year. As I type this, two of my stocks (SLDP, QBTS) are up over 10% so far today. The rest are moving by several percent, including two that are heading the wrong way. Pesky biotechs. Opportunity? Looking back a bit longer, over the last six months, LUNR is up ~270% and QBTS is up ~ 520%. Today’s short-term moves aren’t as important as the long term. As I mentioned, I’ve been here a few times before. Being up >500% meant I was able to Sell 20% of my QBTS and recoup my original investment, leaving the remainder as pure profit that I can Hold through future risks and rewards until I confidently have more than enough.

Selling 20% of a position means I now have cash. Instead of mildly bolstering positions or adding new holdings, I can make bigger moves. Hello, GMGMF (graphene-based solid batteries). What to do? What to do?

To Do:
1) It is Christmas. Buy and give gifts.
2) I’ve lived in scarcity for over a decade. Buy gifts for me, which can be as simple as more tea, an out-of-production DVD player, and go on a food and pantry shopping spree to restock shelf-stable staples like herbs, spices, teas, wines, liquor, nuts, etc.
3) And not third on the list, simply typed third, give generously. 

Giving
I may have mentioned an encounter from earlier this year. In the Spring of 2024, I moved from the vicinity of one tourist town (Langley, where I had too much house debt) to another tourist town (Port Townsend, one ferry ride away, where I am Debt-Free – and view-free, at least at home). Both have wealthy residents. Even before CEOs were being shot, one fervently and worryingly asked me, “I’m doing very well, but I don’t know what to do about it?” They were honestly displaying guilt. That’s courage. By the end of our short conversation, I said it really comes down to giving it away. It can be shopping local as much as possible and splurging on local goods and services. It can be pure charity. It can be paying taxes. It can also be formal and informal donations and contributions to organizations and individuals. Legacy gifts in wills are good, but money sooner is better than later. One simple solution: If you buy a luxury, donate 10% of that amount to a charity. My solution for my current situation: I guessed at how much I spent on myself, doubled it, and spent an afternoon making several donations. My net worth is still less than ‘enough’, so my donations may not be significant, but I hope I’ve found a good balance between caring for my community and myself.

And back to the stocks. Pardon me as I pause to check on them. For readers, this will only take as long as it takes to read a sentence. For me, I might be gone for a while.

…

OK. Pardon me again, as I notice that there are only two hours left in the trading week. There isn’t much left to the year, and much of it is holiday time. Trading gets weirder, then. I’ll step away from typing as I consider whether there is a need, or even a strong want, to Buy or Sell something.

I will, however, end with a reminder. I titled my book Dream. Invest. Live. for a purpose. Many investment and finance books are money, money, money. There’s no life in that. There are no dreams in that. I dream of a life that is many things including being comfortable and compassionate. Investing is merely the step between that dream and living it. Dream it. Invest for it. Live it. It has been too many years when I’ve had to scramble to survive. Now, I feel like I can get back to living. Good luck with your dreams and life, too.

To Do: 
Should I sell off WNDW because it hasn’t already recovered from its stumble? 
I have two biotechs, two solid battery companies, and one electronics component manufacturer, one quantum computer company, and one lunar aerospace firm? Should I diversify, add within categories, add a category, – that series of questions can be a book, not just a blog – but I’ll find an answer for myself.

…

Result:
A) Sold WNDW and XOS this week. I like the technologies (transparent solar cells for windows, electric delivery vehicles), but the companies do not give me confidence. Besides, except for a few tax rules, stocks can usually be bought back again. I checked my intuition; removing them from my portfolio did not generate a feeling of missing out or wanting more. Set them aside for a while. 
B) The rest can wait. I do not ‘need’ to act in haste, so, don’t.

BTW Unless there’s significant news, I may not post during the week of Christmas, but I will be working on My Semi-Annual Portfolio Review. This one may be more interesting than most. Stay tuned.

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Buying Some GMGMF – December 2024

Posted on December 13, 2024 by Tom Trimbath

When last we tuned in… I decided to buy back into the market now that the uncertainty had been reduced by the election. You may notice that it was not a judgment, good or bad, simply less uncertain. (Yet still far from comfortable.) My list had shrunk from 36 to 5: AMSC, FREYR, GMGMF, SHLS, SSYS. Really, the list was 6 because None_of_them was a valid choice. How did it turn out? Folks who follow me on social media (@tetrimbath) or who receive WordPress updates (or anyone who simply read this post’s title) already know. I bought shares of GMGMF. Why? Read on.

It is tempting and easy to say, “I bought GMGMF.” Error. I bought a sliver of the company, enough shares to make my investment substantial enough if the company grows enough, but not so many that I’d go “Ouch!” if they went away. I’d probably say “ouch”: lowercase, no exclamation point.

But what did I buy and why? As I’ve mentioned, “I like to maintain a list of small companies that are public and that have the potential to make significant, positive, and disruptive impacts on society.” That long list of 36 had various combinations of those criteria, so those five did, too. But here’s where a bit of the ‘personal’ aspect of ‘personal finance’ enters. 

A few days after creating that list, I had to remind myself about what FREYR, SHLS, and SSYS did. Personal finance can be boring and easy to ignore. I stay interested and engaged by investing in promising (and hopefully more than simply promising) companies whose impact is something I look forward to. I know about AMSC because I owned shares years ago. GMGMF was memorable because I am a fan of graphene, the next generation of batteries, and the fact that the company didn’t require involving China, which I feel has some uncertainties associated with it currently.

Typing that paragraph took a few minutes. Reaching that conclusion, then understanding my subconscious underpinning of the decision took hours. My process isn’t as rigorous as some, but it isn’t as frivolous as it can seem.

Graphene is a wonder material acting like most wonder tech, promising without producing until someone finds its greatest fit. Graphene’s inclusion is a sweetener, but not even an enabler. 

Batteries are inherent in mobile electrification. Electric vehicles have existed for decades, but energy storage was a key constraint. Lithium-ion batteries busted through that barrier, but now that the honeymoon is over and now that the consumers are more eloquent about what they want, new battery technologies can be better developed. 

China is like the US, large enough to contain enough territory to contain massive resources, yet some resources like lithium are not readily available. Batteries based on common materials like silicon, aluminum, etc., avoid scarcities, particularly scarcities produced by politics. 

And I realized GMGMF was going to produce a product that would be delivered to customers, not a regional service that was limited by geography.

But.

F. That F means GMGMF is not a US company. Not being a US company isn’t inherently bad, but in a protectionist environment, it could be a hindrance to growth. But, it is from part of the British Empire and it is somewhat odd how comforting that can be to many.

Well, no company is perfect. No investor is, either.

So, I bought some GMGMF.

I only bought a small position because another of GMGMF’s hesitancies is that the stock trades at less than $1. Some stocks in that range can be readily manipulated, or at least be sensitive to small influences. Look at the daily chart of MSFT and see lots of ups and downs throughout the day, which is because there is continual action in the stock. Every minute someone wants to buy and sell, and is able to do so. Look at GMGMF and see long gaps where there may be no trades. There is a lot of competition for MSFT, and much less (#massiveunderstatement) for GMGMF. Individual investors like me can have a difficult time finding an advantage amongst the MSFT crowd. Individual investors can find an advantage in stocks that are overlooked. Low demand can mean lower prices. Of course, there may also be fundamental reasons why the stock is overlooked. It might not be undervalued. Investing includes the possibility of both risk and reward.

Google Finance
Google Finance

I bought a few shares and watched to see if it moved the stock. It didn’t. Good. It was one way to learn if there was more interest than just me. 

Next comes a bit of pragmatism. I buy knowing that I’ll eventually sell. When I sell, I’ll have to claim it on taxes. I hate paperwork. Rather than buy a big batch now, sell off chunks later, then pro-rate the costs, profits, and losses, I buy in smaller batches and sell batch by batch. The paperwork is simpler. The paperwork may be years or decades away, but buying on subsequent days makes it easier to track in the long run. 

I bought shares every day this week and consider it done. Because the stock is less than $1, I bought up to an arbitrary limit and do not intend to buy more unless strongly convinced of a significantly good reason.

All that to add one stock to my increasingly diversified portfolio.

Now, what about AMSC?

That’s the story for why GMGMF and why not the others. AMSC has caused me to hesitate for a few reasons. I originally bought them because they were advancing superconducting technology; but that was years ago, and it seems like they’re surviving on whatever they have left over. They might be good leftovers, but what’s the company doing to advance the greater good? Counter to the argument for GMGMF’s sub $1 price, AMSC is priced high enough that I felt uncomfortable buying a nice round lot of the stock. That’s an emotional response with no math basis, yet I trust intuition, too. Intuition didn’t say ‘no’, but more like ‘not yet’. Stay tuned for that.

Is this description pedantic, too detailed? Could be. Yet, I chronicle it because some reader may be just beginning personal investing and might benefit from a real example. Notice that I just called this an example. What I do is what I do. There are millions of methods. This is mine for now. I hope it helps.

Now, back to working on my end-of-year portfolio review. My house sale and the election certainly have made this an interesting year, and it isn’t over yet. Stay tuned for that, too.

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Stock Shopping – 2024

Posted on December 6, 2024 by Tom Trimbath

My timing could’ve been better. Coulda. That idea gets used after opportunities get missed. I was considering investing some of my cash, but wanted to wait until the uncertainties of the election were at least partly resolved. Evidently, I am not the only one. (Election Impact – 2024) Parts of the market are booming. (Will they bust?) Welcome to my return to the classic investor choice: buy, sell, hold.

If you want a deeper dive on my investing strategy read Dream. Invest. Live., a book I wrote in 2008, shortly before my portfolio did very well (thank you, DNDN & AMSC), which was followed by two gangs of white-collar criminals drastically damaged the companies as well as tens of thousands of prostate cancer victims. The criminals were found guilty, I lost 80% of my net worth, and thus began my perfect storm of bad luck. I’m planning a sequel as my finances have begun to recover.

And recover my portfolio is doing. It has to more than triple to recover, but the optimist in me is optimistic. That’s how that works. Ironically, despite holding onto three stocks for decades (GERN, MVIS, LCTX*), my portfolio has benefited from two stocks I bought earlier this year (QBTS, LUNR). Evidently, I shoulda bought more. Shoulda, another word for missed opportunities.

My book has my process, but the most recent exercise was earlier this year (2024), Time To Buy But What. 

Every time I review my possibilities, is different. This time, the timing was affected my my conservatism in making sure I had enough to pay taxes from the house sale (zero, because I met the exemption criteria), and by my desire to avoid the heightened chaos around the election, and because I was busy finishing my book, Fire Race. (Available at Amazon.)

Election history is written in many other places. Here’s a portion of my stock selection chronology, a work in progress.

I like to maintain a list of small companies that are public and that have the potential to make significant, positive, and disruptive impacts on society. For a while, I even posted monthly videos of my opinion of various small companies (on YouTube One Company One Story – and planned to be relaunched soon-ish.) Simply, I collected a few such lists and loaded them into a Watchlist in Google Finance. Here’s the long list of about three dozen companies.

Google Finance

Okay. Winnow that down. I want small companies (ideally under $2B, but not under $100M), with what I consider to be positive prospects, ideally local (US or at least North America), and if they have good financials, then good. Oh yeah, and I have to like the company’s story. Personal finance is easier to research when I care about what they are trying to do.

Google Finance

Here’s when the first shocker came in. Several had already popped up after the election. It happened to those two of mine that I mentioned. They weren’t alone. Not all were so lucky and continue to languish just like some of mine. Google Finance is organized well enough that I was able to check on 36 stocks in about an hour and a half. My style of investing doesn’t require much research because I hang onto stocks for a long time, but it does require some effort and occasional concentration.

That was a quick edit. The number of prospective candidates reduced by about half. 

Two familiar stocks made the list, AMSC & RRGB, which I’ve owned and sold. 

Each iteration tightens the criteria. It is time to get picky. Some were tossed because I feared that they will be challenged by global politics, like companies having to deal with tariffs. I avoid military because I’ve seen how they are as profitable as they are. Long story. In early iterations, I check yearly trends. Now, I check lifetime trends in the stocks. Are they profitable, or soon to be, or have a good reason not to be so far? Do I think their product is too niche, or about to be out-dated or out-competed?

That brought the list down to five: 

  • AMSC – Energy efficiency in power grids is a massive market. Making a grid more effective can mean not having to build another power plant. And they use superconductors!, though I think the competitive advantage has been lost. I owned them a decade or so ago, so there’s familiarity. 
  • FREYR – They’re working on large scale solar power storage systems, which I suspect is a growing market. And yet, while they’re on the list, my objective reasoning is not encouraging my subjective reasoning. They should be good. Why am I not enthused? Pay attention to intuition.
  • GMGMF – The trailing F is the key. This company is in Australia. Tariffs and such can go either way, but I’m encouraged by anyone who can create batteries that are Not lithium-ion. They might also be about to become profitable.
  • SHLS – Here’s another one that has encouraging numbers, yet I have doubts. I get the impression that they are focused on balancing electrical loads, which is not sexy, but does that matter? I ask.
  • SSYS – 3-D printing is becoming an industry norm. I’m a fan from my days at Boeing where I got to work with one of the early models. Cool. But that was 25 years ago, and the printers are not common in homes. Is the market big enough?
Google Finance

Even typing this out is part of the process. As I type, I listen to myself trying to make this one fit or find a reason to skip that one. Personal finance is personal. I’m living a life that is me. What fits in my life? What would feel like hypocrisy? What would feel like a fit? What is frivolous? What is accurate yet dull? 

I will post this before I draw a conclusion because my specific result is not as important as providing an insight into one person’s process. It’s Friday at sunset (horizon rise). I won’t buy any stock until Monday morning at the earliest. In the meantime, there’s a weekend. There are opportunities to sleep in as a storm blows by, a dance to enjoy, and a friend’s book to lightly review. Stocks are important, but so are so many other things, too.

Bought
GMGMF $0.429 12/9/2024
GMGMF $0.423 12/10/2024
GMGMF $0.467 12/11/2024
GMGMF $0.448 12/12/2024
GMGMF $0.448 12/13/2024

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Election Impact – 2024

Posted on November 29, 2024 by Tom Trimbath

I must be brilliant! My portfolio is up 20% in November! So much for expecting an annualized 7%. What? It’s not because I did something on purpose? Welcome to an unintended consequence of the 2024 US election. 

I’m not alone. One person was embarrassed because their portfolio surged even though their candidate lost. Should they sell their stock in protest? Should they celebrate the fact that selling would take cash from a person or organization that might be hoarding it? Would they be hoarding it instead? Don’t overthink it. Unintended consequences happen.

My portfolio rose that much, but almost all of the gain was from two stocks: LUNR, QBTS. LUNR is possibly a play by investors rushing to space stocks because Elon Musk is going to do – something. (Is he an unintended consequence for this era?) QBTS is possibly a play by investors loving high-tech that must be good because it is so high-tech that they can’t understand it. LUNR might have a launch delay, which usually means a revenue delay. QBTS is a burgeoning quantum computing company, which is another way of saying that someday they might make a lot of money. Hey. I like both companies. I bought stock in both, but their values pre- and post-election changed 20%. Either the rockets were going to fly, or the qubits were going to compute, or not. Votes don’t matter to powerful reactions and sensitive circuits. LUNR is up 96%. QBTS is up 165%.

This surge is not universal. Four of my other stocks were down despite having news. GERN passed FDA approval for their blood cancer treatment. LCTX is making progress in treating spinal cord injuries and a kind of macular degeneration (an eye ailment.) MVIS – oh, just skip it. MVIS is decades of unintended consequences. SLDP is making progress with solid batteries, and possibly more important is the fact that the need for something better than what we’ve got becomes more apparent. (Note: I think SLDP reduces the need for certain rare materials from China, so maybe there’s a play there?)

Play. I’m glad I unintentionally used that word. Investing has an aura of diligent research, decades of tracking progress, and deep considerations. Ha. Sometimes, the market chases whatever looks bright and shiny. If you’re the one holding the bauble they want, you get to decide whether to Buy, Sell, or Hold.

I’m holding all of my shares. I think every stock I own has a “present value of future revenues discounted for risk” that is probably higher than its current market value. I think the investment community might be right to buy LUNR and QBTS because they have great potential in my opinion. Notice the word ‘opinion’. I haven’t conducted a mathematical analysis more sophisticated than noting their market capitalizations. Do they have the potential to be a multi-billion dollar company but ‘only’ worth a few hundred million? Then the reward might, might be worth the risk.

Perfect storms of bad luck will happen. I am one example of that. But unintended consequences can be positive surprises. Luck, good and bad, is more influential than most pundits will admit.

This surprising good news is unrealized, as in ‘unrealized gains’. Some have suggested that I sell. On occasion, they’ve been right. (See MVIS in early 2021 for that example.) On more occasions, I’ve missed out on greater gains by not holding. The most I’ve ever lost on a stock was 100%. Just picking one from memory was selling FFIV at ~$44 after buying it $5. Today, it closed at $250. Ain’t personal finance and investing in stocks fun?

Realistically, I’ve been through such swings before. I’ve found that a handy celebratory outlet is to let me gift me a small gift. If my portfolio goes up $10,000, I get to buy something for ~$100. Sometimes, something as simple as a pair of winter sweatpants or a fancy dinner out finds that balance between celebration and ‘don’t spend it all in one place’. (Hmm. My ten-year-old computer mouse may finally get replaced with an upgrade.)

We’re entering an era of unintended consequences. Politics, climate change, artificial intelligence, social unrest, the decentralization and electrification of our energy supply, and the possibility of a Digital Singularity all can effect changes before the next US Presidential election cycle. Fluky unintended consequences will be worth watching because they may not last long. November’s spike may abate, but I’m not going to chase the market. I am invested in our future. I plan to sell someday, but not while I think the stocks have significantly further to go. I’m also willing to be proved wrong if someone is silly enough to give me enough – and pardon me as my mind drifts off imagining scenarios in which that can happen. Hey, unintended consequences, you know?

(Reminder: My semi-annual portfolio review is due in a month. Stay tuned. And take care, too.)

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My Apologies To AT&T

Posted on November 22, 2024 by Tom Trimbath

(scroll to the bottom for the reconciliation – for now)
((and scroll there again for the end-of-November possible redemption))

My apologies, AT&T. I’ve been trying to resolve an issue with my AT&T account. I thought they were a simple set of questions, probably requiring some actions, not just answers. That shouldn’t be a problem. The first time I bought a smartphone was with AT&T. There were some issues, but a call to the corporation fixed an issue with a local store. Last month. I bought a new phone. This time didn’t go as well. But this time, the process is more automated, online, and AI-enabled. You can probably imagine how this went. At the start, I had hopes. Oh well, here I go and how it went!

With the new phone, my bill basically doubled to ~$180. Eep. Hey, AT&T, let’s resolve and review that. Or not.

If only I could talk to a person on my AT&T phone about my AT&T phone. Oddly, I was repeatedly told that the phone company isn’t allowed to make a phone call.

In summary, for those with less time (details follow, but you are welcome to skip ahead), I evidently lack the technical skills to use the phone app, the web site, the 611 system, and to follow the directions given by a new manager. I’ve been asked to do a lot of work, which, sadly, I am not trained for. I guess they’ll just have to fire me as an employee, er, customer. 

But, surely, there’s some simple resolution.

I feel sorry for the local guy in the local store. He’s already made manager after several months because he knows his stuff. Sadly, he has to deal with me, this guy who can’t follow the simplest directions. I mean really, he does this all day without a problem. Here comes this customer who is untrained in the AT&T system, despite being a customer for about a decade or more. I must be such an embarrassment. (Seriously, the dude does a better job than I’d do, but the store is a long way away.) I wonder if they have similar training for customers. Who pays whom for that?

I feel sorry for the several Customer Support folks I talked to. First, it required them to decipher my accent and put up with my poor attempts to hear through and declutter their poor phone connection. One thing that would help would be if they or I had better phone service. Irony, or simply modern life? After about 20 minutes, if they were able to answer my call, verify who I am,  and verify my account, they would tell me that I was being transferred to someone who could answer my questions and possibly act on my requests. I can’t recall getting an answer. Maybe that’s in there in my pages of notes.

I apologize for running out of patience after weeks of waiting as recommended, working through several sessions, attempting to connect successfully, and running out of ideas. Twitter (won’t call it X) was opened on a tab, so I vented a bit. My apology for being honest. Ah, but that produced another reason for an apology. 

I feel sorry for the Social Media manager who actually responded, who would get back to me in a few days, and who did – but did so on Twitter Message, which I didn’t know to look for. I did, however, sit by my phone waiting for them to call me with a ring or a ding or a vibrate or a flash. (BTW I am spending more time on BlueSky: tetrimbath.bsky.social .) My apology is because, despite their help, I was unable to log in to the online service. 

I wonder if I should feel sorry for the online service, the website that asked me for account login information for an account that I’ve never logged into. When it told me that it sent confirmation emails to my email account, of which I only have one, they never arrived. Maybe they’re wandering the World Wide Web. I hope the website isn’t spending a lot of resources waiting for my response. In Spam? Nope, though, ugh, that’s an ugly folder to open. (Later, I learned that it was sending the emails to an account from years ago.)

It can be so hard to find good help, er, customers, even ones who pay for a Business Unlimited Performance service. Wait. I’m paying for Unlimited Performance? I wonder when that happened. See, I am such an unschooled customer. (Hmm. I am schooled, but as an aerospace engineer. Maybe I should’ve gotten that business degree. My bad?) 

I got curious. Sitting there and trying not to stew, I decided to do some research. Maybe I’ll double-check these numbers, and maybe not. Nah. They’re not paying me enough. AT&T is, however, paying their CEO over $24,000,000 per year. The company made over $14,000,000,000 last year. And yet, somehow, a telephone company doesn’t budget enough to let people use a telephone to talk to people about their telephone. I wonder how much more the company would have to make to make that happen – or if it would even matter. I wonder what those Customer Service people are getting paid. What’s that Manager getting paid? What’s the Social Media Manager getting paid?

Sigh. Alas. Well, there are reliable systems. The US Postal Service is supposed to be reliable though slow, but could be fast compared to the electronic system that occupied me for weeks. I asked for a mailing address but was discouraged from mailing them a letter in an envelope because it would take too long. I never found the address. Bad me. 

A later night idea: AT&T at one time was American Telephone and Telegraph. Maybe I should send them a telegram. Oh. Maybe one of those ‘T’s is now Twitter (won’t call it X).

Is anyone surprised that I began considering options?

It was time to get ready for a dance class. There is a Verizon store along the way. I asked for a quick estimate for a personal phone plan that fits me. $180? Nope, $45. AT&T = $180 Verizon = $45 Hmm. Different plans and different amounts, no surprise Let me see…Dance is more important.


The dance is done (and was fun.) It is the next day. I didn’t make the switch because, as I was open with the person at Verizon, I give people second and third chances. 

Circa 4:30AM, I received a note via Twitter Message that my query was reassigned to the Business Team. (Isn’t that who I was communicating with all along?) I checked back after breakfast. Finally, after another attempt at catching another of their PINs, I asked where they were sending them to. Ah, the old, defunct, now wrong email. My apologies for not checking that sooner in the online account that I never used.

Rather quickly, two of my three questions were answered and resolved. Whew. They were small, but successes. Now, about the big one, the Plan that was now about as much as my bills had been with my old phone. This wasn’t about the Plan plus buying the new phone; the new Plan alone was the size of my old bill. Several Messages later, I finally saw the alternative Plans, but couldn’t find my old one. Some of the Plans did look appealing (cheaper). Sign me up! Oh. That’s the price per line for multiple lines. See, here is where I’m not good enough. I didn’t notice the fine print to read the fine print, and then after reading the fine print, I didn’t pull down the submenu with additional details. I am so bad at this.

Maybe the personal plans, like AT&T’s versions of Verizon’s, make more sense. Can I switch to them? Yes, but I’d have to start the process over with another department. Oh, to have the energy, the lack of a need for anxiety medication, the time, and the trust to begin that again. Again, I fall short of requirements.

Recently, I wrote about shopping and loyalty, about dealing with people instead of bureaucracies. (Stores Malls And Loyalty) With this and that in mind, I was glad for an interruption from a friend of mine, Steve Smolinsky (previously Project Faculty at Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania). We have a podcast, IntriguingCreativity.com . He’s a fun guy to trade business stories with. We should’ve recorded the conversation for an episode. We laughed a lot. Oh well, opportunity lost. As usual with us, we wound around to a conclusion that left us thinking. 

We laughed about me feeling like I was being treated as an employee who was not meeting expectations instead of a customer paying for a service. And we realized it was another aspect of a larger conversation. We pump our own gas. OK. We use the ATM instead of a teller. Convenient. But the trend hasn’t stopped. We’re encouraged to bag our groceries, and now to run the cash register (which may be cashless). And we’re effectively required to maintain our customer accounts. We get to manage all of these tasks for no pay, with no training, and with support that might be remote and might not even be a human. (Did I apologize to the AI that I confused along the way? There was one. It is so hard to keep enough notes. Ah, I contacted the Fraud department, just in case. It hung up.)

You may notice that at some point, I decided it was enough. The issues aren’t completely resolved, but the potential savings became less than the increased health care costs in terms of counseling, treatments, and medications. Switching will also effectively induce charges, but I have decided to recuperate before entering back into that battle.

In the meantime, some of those Verizon offers were attractive enough that I might get a second phone for the price of my savings from AT&T. An irony: The phone number I’ve carried with me since 2000 was originally a Verizon number. 

I’m glad Steve has a sense of humor. I expect we’ll talk soon. Maybe we should record that call. (BTW We record those calls over Google Meet. It is essentially a free video call. Ain’t that cool?)

PS AT&T’s system offered me the opportunity to comment on their service. OK. They asked for it. No charge.

PPS Yay! Around Thanksgiving, AT&T sent me the new bill. Much better, or at least it looks that way. The total is back to, and possibly less, than with the old phone. I paid it with relief. My congratulations to whoever at AT&T figured out how to deal with me. We humans, somehow managing to manage a myriad of systems. Maybe managing electronic systems will be AI’s ‘in’.

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Hoping And Coping

Posted on November 15, 2024 by Tom Trimbath

Seeking solace? Answers? Ways to hope and cope? Or are you being more pragmatic and planning and adapting? You don’t have to pick only one. The only constant is change, duh. You know that. But knowing that may not seem like enough. As I sat here in my tiny house trying to decide what to type about, I realized that my quandary was about what to write about. Then I realized, it would be best to write about all of it; or as much as is practical considering certain practical limits in my life as a human. Here’s a quick tour of things I am considering.

Trust me. I’ll get around to my personal finance implications.

Politics
Can’t ignore it, even though I prefer not to write about it. Regardless of which party won in the US elections, tens of millions of voters were disappointed (#massiveunderstatement) The election didn’t resolve any issues or form any cohesive coalitions. Both parties are seeing internal fractures. Fractures are also happening outside of organized parties. That will be contentious, but maybe that’s what’s necessary to redefine or remove a duopoly.

Accelerationists
Some people want to drive the systems to failure because they see that as the way through to more than redefining and removing a political duopoly. Societal norms and technological advances should shift, too, so they seem to think. That may be true. Unfortunately, I haven’t heard of any accelerationists who, whether explicitly or out of ignorance, aren’t willing to sacrifice millions or billions of other humans. The richest may hope to ride it out and survive. I also haven’t heard of any who think the cause is so just, necessary, and noble that they will sacrifice themself.

Patches
People and organizations seem to be emboldened to refocus and concentrate their resources on more specific tasks. If global and national initiatives haven’t succeeded at changing societies and cultures, then maybe working at the local level can succeed. Some legal defenses may be required. Some legal offenses may also be required. Many lawyers will be employed.

Climate
Climate isn’t laughing through all of this. Climate is a noun, not an entity – unless you want to discuss Gaia principles. Climate doesn’t laugh or cry. Climate does what climate does. Humans, however, are witnessing changes that are no longer academic, regardless of pundits. Millions of people are relocating, or trying to use technology to enable life in increasingly harsh environments, or adapting and coping to an amazing degree because they can’t afford to move or spend money on counter-measures. 

Aliens
It’s never aliens, until it is. I think an undiscovered, terrestrial intelligence is unlikely, but more likely than another intelligence from within our solar system, and much more likely than another intelligence from outside our solar system. All of the above is possible, too. The base words in UFO and UAP are appropriate: unidentified, flying, objects, aerial, phenonema. None of those words are ‘extraterrestrial’ or ‘alien’. I contend that one possibility is that, IF, IF, they are a real ‘they’, they could be from Earth or within our solar system. We’ve explored very little of Earth’s oceans, and subterranean realms. IF, IF, our model of physics is correct, then traveling between planets is more likely than traveling between stars or galaxies. And, readers who have read my sci-fi novels Firewatcher and Fire Race may notice that I can conceive of extra-dimensional travel that ignores our currently accepted travel limitations. Or, they’re all just pretty lights confusing our armed forces. Shrug.

Artificial Intelligence
It has always been sad and entertaining watching governments try to keep up with technology. Governments had a chance until the start of the Industrial Revolution. Since then, well, they barely kept up with the railroads and haven’t updated those policies in decades. Ask Amtrak. So, now, artificial intelligence? It has more autonomy than climate does. AI really can laugh at the pace of politics. Debates continue on how to constrain AI, yet we can’t even contain spammers. AI will advance regardless of policies. Whether it ever achieves sentience or not, it will at least reach a level of perceived competence that challenges human skills. Note that I emphasize ‘perceived’. If true competence was an objective criterion for managing human society, very few politicians would be elected.

Implications
Much of what I described ignores Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs. That’s sad. It is also a possibility of an overlooked opportunity. Build your own life raft, both to protect yourself but also to provide safety to others. Granted, some of the accelerationists are building yachts and bunkers, but they are a silly few, and I am glad there are so few of them. 

Build your own life raft. Housing, food, and sanitation are a good baseline to establish. All of those things are available in a 16th-floor penthouse, but that is more fragile than some acreage on arable land above the flood one in a temperate climate with adequate rain. Add in education, especially if children are involved. Health. Healthcare is good too, but that doesn’t necessitate health insurance. Insurance is not care, I am sure. Add to your pyramid as is reasonable.

Be aware of the major changes, but first, react to your basic needs. That may involve activism, but reacting to your needs according to your values may mean buying from local farmers, even if it costs a bit more. If you can, grow your own. But don’t hide in a shell. Politicians may be poor managers, but they can enact policies that require a response, or a purposeful lack of one.

One major change seems to be happening in the investment world. (See. I told you I’d get around to finance.) Mega-corps are likely to continue to climb. At least in the near term, irrational ideologies may create irrational exuberance in certain companies and industries. Taking advantage of where supposedly serious people are being silly with their money can be profitable. I don’t have to indulge in their products to benefit from buying the company’s stock. Men are shaving their groins? Really!? Well, it isn’t much sillier than expecting women to wax and shave, and that’s been a big industry for decades. Maybe that’s how far such an industry can grow.

Casablanca
Casablanca keeps coming to mind, the movie, not the place. The thoughts keep coming back to Captain Renault. Bogart may have been the lead. Ingrid Bergman did a marvelous job. But, Renault’s character (expertly acted by Claude Rains) can be a role model for some. He was fictional, of course, but he represented an interesting character. Throughout much of the movie, he is seen as self-centered, an opportunist, the ultimate pragmatist. Close down this gambling establishment and thank you for my winnings. In the end, he is revealed to be someone who did what he could, with what he had, sometimes doing things he didn’t want to do, but eventually enabling a grander goal.

A grander goal.

There are many grand goals to strive for. Pick your own, within reason, of course. I continue to strive to make my life more sustainable, to help my community, and to take advantage of opportunities that happen to arrive. (I’m glad I bought LUNR, as a start.) And, Rick, I know why you did what you did, and saying good bye to Ilsa was the right and noble thing to do, but ouch! What a sacrifice you made. Ah, but it was all for the better…I hope.

PS Want a more mixed perspective? Steve Smolinksy and I have a podcast, IntriguingCreativity.com . The November 2024 episode was not about politics, but the consequences of politics – kinda.

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Maybe A Magna Carta Moment

Posted on November 8, 2024 by Tom Trimbath

The world is in turmoil – and has been. Today’s answer has been to hand out ears and hugs. Don’t take that literally. Ears were for listening. Hugs were for sharing. For those with the capacity, conversations were handy. Thanks to all for sharing. One conversation led to one insight that tied into another, which may mean we’re about to have another historic moment, what I am calling and planning for, a Magna Carta Moment. When things get too dysfunctional, find something more functional, even if you have to make it up.

For those readers reading this in the future (is it possible to read it from the past?), earlier this week was an election in the US. For readers in the far-enough future, the US stands for a country called the United States of America, which aren’t looking very united, and in America, which many assume only means North America but which Central and South American countries can point out is not all-inclusive. The vote was not unanimous. It never is. There is always dissension. So it goes.

But it may not always go as it has gone. Being ready for change can be academic, but this week, it looks very practical and pragmatic.

Governments change. Usually, the change is relatively peaceful. Occasionally not. The US did not experience a governmental change; it experienced an administrative shift. That shift may be dramatic, but most of the paperwork stays the same.

That wasn’t always the case. We humans probably started out as random groups of individuals. Eventually, our ancestors stabilized into tribes, then klans, then warlords, then… The changes didn’t happen all at once everywhere. Communications weren’t that omnipresent. Another eventually happened as some societies became kingdoms and monarchies. There were experiments in democracies and republics, socialisms, communisms, other -isms. Variations ensue. 

Governments were based on geography. Alvin Toffler’s book Powershift pointed out that, as technology and communication progressed, information would become more important that geography. The site of an army may not be as powerful as the concentration of the control of information. That may seem inevitable. Those who control physical power may react irrationally to the shift, the powershift, to those who control information. 

I’ve been thinking about the shift in power since I read the book decades ago.

The shift from tribes and klans to kingdoms and empires was barely within historical records. A more recent shift was recent in a relative sense, in 1215, when a bunch of barons told a king he had to obey the law, hence, the Magna Carta. Some violence preceded the event. More violence followed as rights were fought over. Centuries were involved. The monarchy was seen as losing, yet we still have monarchies. Some power brokers continue to like the authoritarian command of a king. Some people like having an individual in absolute control.

Seque to technology

We are also in a technological change. Debate if you want to, but whether Artificial Intelligence leads to a Digital Singularity may be moot. Technology is enabling a concentration of information, and information is power. One well-recognized author is Ray Kurweil, who I recommend for some perspective. I don’t agree with everything he says, but I think his looking-ahead is more useful than current politicians looking-behind.

As I wrote recently about my science fiction novel, Firewatcher;

The future is happening fast. 
Firewatcher started as an image and an idea in the mid-2010s.
…
At the time, several trends were projected to reach critical levels in 2100. Artificial Intelligence, climate change, and political and societal shifts were projected to alter our world. Media reports frequently used the term ‘conservative estimates.’
…
My read on the media was that 2100 was too far off. My suspicion for each of the affects could be more like 2040.
 
If the world was going to change that soon, I should write the book soon.

I wrote the book in a bit of a rush, and am glad. Governmental changes can span centuries. Technological changes are happening in terms of months. There is a potential that technology can make governments more moot than they want to be. The governments might not like that. Today’s turmoil may only be a precursor to greater turmoil. 

Turmoil doesn’t have to be bad, but it is usually unsettling. Planning for it is a guessing game with low odds, but maybe we must. Mm. No maybe about it. Plan, but don’t be surprised when the situations change again.

Turmoil at such a level can upset not just markets, not just currencies, not just economies, but the very concept of economies and currencies and markets. 

Nah. It will never happen. 

How many times has that been said and thought lately?

Another author I’ll add to the mix, but only for people who aren’t startled by the possibility of a Magna Carta Moment, Dan Simmons. Dan Simmons is an excellent writer. I know his work from his science fiction that implicitly postulates future economies and cultures far enough in the future that the characters don’t understand much of our modern life. In more academic terms, he writes about a post-scarcity economy. 

Or, skip the academic and think about the economy of Star Trek. The Ferengi deal with money, which confuses the folks on the Enterprise. Watching reruns may be easier than reading yet another book. Capitalism clashes with post-scarcity.

For me, I am going to skip those considerations in this post because I’m not trying to write that book. (There are other books on my list. Stay tuned.)

For now, we still have to make money to pay expenses to live. I continue to invest in stocks and companies. We may see less control over monopolies and oligarchies, which doesn’t work well for the small-cap stocks I invest in, but I am not sure, so I am watching. Companies that are more information-centric than geographic-centric are more appealing. Big infrastructures may not be able to adjust quickly, though space-focused industries may be at a critical and positive junction.

As I mentioned above, “Artificial Intelligence, climate change, and political and societal shifts were projected to alter our world.” Of those four fields, I think the first two are the soonest. “We will never forget!” proclamations have kept some societies anchored in stories from thousands of years ago. Climate change is happening now, but I think we’ve only seen the beginnings. A hundred years from now, we’ll still be dealing with it. Politics can change with a tweet, but systemic change is more likely to take decades. Equal rights continues to be resisted. Will WWJD become ascendant?

Artificial Intelligence can seem an abstraction and a distraction, but its changes can happen in months, and in the extreme, in minutes.

What’s a person to do?

Cope. Have values that you understand, not values imposed by others. Be compassionate and collaborative because no one is going through this alone. For me, I’m glad I am frugal – and wish I had a sustainable house on sustainable land that could sustain me through major interruptions.

Gotta work on that.

I doubt my friends are surprised that I’ll continue to write.

Friends are customizing their responses. Several are moving to seemingly safer places. Those who can’t move are interested in learning coping skills. One friend’s life has always had to deal with injustices, and they are staying. They’ve been exercising those skills for decades out of necessity, not choice. Their family has been doing so for generations. Whatever skill you seek, there’s probably someone out there who can teach it to you. Ask nicely.

There are many responses. Positive ones may be best. Learning to cope is better than not coping. Finding creative projects, particularly ones that are expressive and possibly profitable can be gratifying in multiple ways. New businesses are already forming so control stays close, not at someone else’s command. And then there’s “living far from the things of man.” (Hmm. May be time to rewatch Joe Versus the Volcano.)

Plans. Plans. Plans. Scenarios, possibilities, probabilities – bah! At some point, I remember to breathe, feel, watch, smile, listen, hug, and definitely dance. A slow waltz for contemplation, followed by some swing to fling the energies away? Those are things that we pesky humans have been doing throughout all of our history, no philosophizing or planning required.

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Reblog: Fire Race Launched

Posted on November 1, 2024 by Tom Trimbath
Fire Race Launched

I’ve got a new book! Yeah! And I also have a separate blog devoted to my writing. Someone asked for it, so all of those posts have their own home, and this blog can stick closer to personal finance – but sometimes books and finances are linked, so it all gets a bit messy. Hey, that’s like life! Fire Race is the sequel to Firewatcher, and the mid-point in an eventual trilogy. Click through for more of the story, or click to jump to the Amazon page (no other option, yet.)

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