Buying Some GMGMF – December 2024

Posted on December 13, 2024 by Tom Trimbath

When last we tuned in… I decided to buy back into the market now that the uncertainty had been reduced by the election. You may notice that it was not a judgment, good or bad, simply less uncertain. (Yet still far from comfortable.) My list had shrunk from 36 to 5: AMSC, FREYR, GMGMF, SHLS, SSYS. Really, the list was 6 because None_of_them was a valid choice. How did it turn out? Folks who follow me on social media (@tetrimbath) or who receive WordPress updates (or anyone who simply read this post’s title) already know. I bought shares of GMGMF. Why? Read on.

It is tempting and easy to say, “I bought GMGMF.” Error. I bought a sliver of the company, enough shares to make my investment substantial enough if the company grows enough, but not so many that I’d go “Ouch!” if they went away. I’d probably say “ouch”: lowercase, no exclamation point.

But what did I buy and why? As I’ve mentioned, “I like to maintain a list of small companies that are public and that have the potential to make significant, positive, and disruptive impacts on society.” That long list of 36 had various combinations of those criteria, so those five did, too. But here’s where a bit of the ‘personal’ aspect of ‘personal finance’ enters. 

A few days after creating that list, I had to remind myself about what FREYR, SHLS, and SSYS did. Personal finance can be boring and easy to ignore. I stay interested and engaged by investing in promising (and hopefully more than simply promising) companies whose impact is something I look forward to. I know about AMSC because I owned shares years ago. GMGMF was memorable because I am a fan of graphene, the next generation of batteries, and the fact that the company didn’t require involving China, which I feel has some uncertainties associated with it currently.

Typing that paragraph took a few minutes. Reaching that conclusion, then understanding my subconscious underpinning of the decision took hours. My process isn’t as rigorous as some, but it isn’t as frivolous as it can seem.

Graphene is a wonder material acting like most wonder tech, promising without producing until someone finds its greatest fit. Graphene’s inclusion is a sweetener, but not even an enabler. 

Batteries are inherent in mobile electrification. Electric vehicles have existed for decades, but energy storage was a key constraint. Lithium-ion batteries busted through that barrier, but now that the honeymoon is over and now that the consumers are more eloquent about what they want, new battery technologies can be better developed. 

China is like the US, large enough to contain enough territory to contain massive resources, yet some resources like lithium are not readily available. Batteries based on common materials like silicon, aluminum, etc., avoid scarcities, particularly scarcities produced by politics. 

And I realized GMGMF was going to produce a product that would be delivered to customers, not a regional service that was limited by geography.

But.

F. That F means GMGMF is not a US company. Not being a US company isn’t inherently bad, but in a protectionist environment, it could be a hindrance to growth. But, it is from part of the British Empire and it is somewhat odd how comforting that can be to many.

Well, no company is perfect. No investor is, either.

So, I bought some GMGMF.

I only bought a small position because another of GMGMF’s hesitancies is that the stock trades at less than $1. Some stocks in that range can be readily manipulated, or at least be sensitive to small influences. Look at the daily chart of MSFT and see lots of ups and downs throughout the day, which is because there is continual action in the stock. Every minute someone wants to buy and sell, and is able to do so. Look at GMGMF and see long gaps where there may be no trades. There is a lot of competition for MSFT, and much less (#massiveunderstatement) for GMGMF. Individual investors like me can have a difficult time finding an advantage amongst the MSFT crowd. Individual investors can find an advantage in stocks that are overlooked. Low demand can mean lower prices. Of course, there may also be fundamental reasons why the stock is overlooked. It might not be undervalued. Investing includes the possibility of both risk and reward.

Google Finance
Google Finance

I bought a few shares and watched to see if it moved the stock. It didn’t. Good. It was one way to learn if there was more interest than just me. 

Next comes a bit of pragmatism. I buy knowing that I’ll eventually sell. When I sell, I’ll have to claim it on taxes. I hate paperwork. Rather than buy a big batch now, sell off chunks later, then pro-rate the costs, profits, and losses, I buy in smaller batches and sell batch by batch. The paperwork is simpler. The paperwork may be years or decades away, but buying on subsequent days makes it easier to track in the long run. 

I bought shares every day this week and consider it done. Because the stock is less than $1, I bought up to an arbitrary limit and do not intend to buy more unless strongly convinced of a significantly good reason.

All that to add one stock to my increasingly diversified portfolio.

Now, what about AMSC?

That’s the story for why GMGMF and why not the others. AMSC has caused me to hesitate for a few reasons. I originally bought them because they were advancing superconducting technology; but that was years ago, and it seems like they’re surviving on whatever they have left over. They might be good leftovers, but what’s the company doing to advance the greater good? Counter to the argument for GMGMF’s sub $1 price, AMSC is priced high enough that I felt uncomfortable buying a nice round lot of the stock. That’s an emotional response with no math basis, yet I trust intuition, too. Intuition didn’t say ‘no’, but more like ‘not yet’. Stay tuned for that.

Is this description pedantic, too detailed? Could be. Yet, I chronicle it because some reader may be just beginning personal investing and might benefit from a real example. Notice that I just called this an example. What I do is what I do. There are millions of methods. This is mine for now. I hope it helps.

Now, back to working on my end-of-year portfolio review. My house sale and the election certainly have made this an interesting year, and it isn’t over yet. Stay tuned for that, too.

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Stock Shopping – 2024

Posted on December 6, 2024 by Tom Trimbath

My timing could’ve been better. Coulda. That idea gets used after opportunities get missed. I was considering investing some of my cash, but wanted to wait until the uncertainties of the election were at least partly resolved. Evidently, I am not the only one. (Election Impact – 2024) Parts of the market are booming. (Will they bust?) Welcome to my return to the classic investor choice: buy, sell, hold.

If you want a deeper dive on my investing strategy read Dream. Invest. Live., a book I wrote in 2008, shortly before my portfolio did very well (thank you, DNDN & AMSC), which was followed by two gangs of white-collar criminals drastically damaged the companies as well as tens of thousands of prostate cancer victims. The criminals were found guilty, I lost 80% of my net worth, and thus began my perfect storm of bad luck. I’m planning a sequel as my finances have begun to recover.

And recover my portfolio is doing. It has to more than triple to recover, but the optimist in me is optimistic. That’s how that works. Ironically, despite holding onto three stocks for decades (GERN, MVIS, LCTX*), my portfolio has benefited from two stocks I bought earlier this year (QBTS, LUNR). Evidently, I shoulda bought more. Shoulda, another word for missed opportunities.

My book has my process, but the most recent exercise was earlier this year (2024), Time To Buy But What. 

Every time I review my possibilities, is different. This time, the timing was affected my my conservatism in making sure I had enough to pay taxes from the house sale (zero, because I met the exemption criteria), and by my desire to avoid the heightened chaos around the election, and because I was busy finishing my book, Fire Race. (Available at Amazon.)

Election history is written in many other places. Here’s a portion of my stock selection chronology, a work in progress.

I like to maintain a list of small companies that are public and that have the potential to make significant, positive, and disruptive impacts on society. For a while, I even posted monthly videos of my opinion of various small companies (on YouTube One Company One Story – and planned to be relaunched soon-ish.) Simply, I collected a few such lists and loaded them into a Watchlist in Google Finance. Here’s the long list of about three dozen companies.

Google Finance

Okay. Winnow that down. I want small companies (ideally under $2B, but not under $100M), with what I consider to be positive prospects, ideally local (US or at least North America), and if they have good financials, then good. Oh yeah, and I have to like the company’s story. Personal finance is easier to research when I care about what they are trying to do.

Google Finance

Here’s when the first shocker came in. Several had already popped up after the election. It happened to those two of mine that I mentioned. They weren’t alone. Not all were so lucky and continue to languish just like some of mine. Google Finance is organized well enough that I was able to check on 36 stocks in about an hour and a half. My style of investing doesn’t require much research because I hang onto stocks for a long time, but it does require some effort and occasional concentration.

That was a quick edit. The number of prospective candidates reduced by about half. 

Two familiar stocks made the list, AMSC & RRGB, which I’ve owned and sold. 

Each iteration tightens the criteria. It is time to get picky. Some were tossed because I feared that they will be challenged by global politics, like companies having to deal with tariffs. I avoid military because I’ve seen how they are as profitable as they are. Long story. In early iterations, I check yearly trends. Now, I check lifetime trends in the stocks. Are they profitable, or soon to be, or have a good reason not to be so far? Do I think their product is too niche, or about to be out-dated or out-competed?

That brought the list down to five: 

  • AMSC – Energy efficiency in power grids is a massive market. Making a grid more effective can mean not having to build another power plant. And they use superconductors!, though I think the competitive advantage has been lost. I owned them a decade or so ago, so there’s familiarity. 
  • FREYR – They’re working on large scale solar power storage systems, which I suspect is a growing market. And yet, while they’re on the list, my objective reasoning is not encouraging my subjective reasoning. They should be good. Why am I not enthused? Pay attention to intuition.
  • GMGMF – The trailing F is the key. This company is in Australia. Tariffs and such can go either way, but I’m encouraged by anyone who can create batteries that are Not lithium-ion. They might also be about to become profitable.
  • SHLS – Here’s another one that has encouraging numbers, yet I have doubts. I get the impression that they are focused on balancing electrical loads, which is not sexy, but does that matter? I ask.
  • SSYS – 3-D printing is becoming an industry norm. I’m a fan from my days at Boeing where I got to work with one of the early models. Cool. But that was 25 years ago, and the printers are not common in homes. Is the market big enough?
Google Finance

Even typing this out is part of the process. As I type, I listen to myself trying to make this one fit or find a reason to skip that one. Personal finance is personal. I’m living a life that is me. What fits in my life? What would feel like hypocrisy? What would feel like a fit? What is frivolous? What is accurate yet dull? 

I will post this before I draw a conclusion because my specific result is not as important as providing an insight into one person’s process. It’s Friday at sunset (horizon rise). I won’t buy any stock until Monday morning at the earliest. In the meantime, there’s a weekend. There are opportunities to sleep in as a storm blows by, a dance to enjoy, and a friend’s book to lightly review. Stocks are important, but so are so many other things, too.

Bought
GMGMF $0.429 12/9/2024
GMGMF $0.423 12/10/2024
GMGMF $0.467 12/11/2024
GMGMF $0.448 12/12/2024
GMGMF $0.448 12/13/2024

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Election Impact – 2024

Posted on November 29, 2024 by Tom Trimbath

I must be brilliant! My portfolio is up 20% in November! So much for expecting an annualized 7%. What? It’s not because I did something on purpose? Welcome to an unintended consequence of the 2024 US election. 

I’m not alone. One person was embarrassed because their portfolio surged even though their candidate lost. Should they sell their stock in protest? Should they celebrate the fact that selling would take cash from a person or organization that might be hoarding it? Would they be hoarding it instead? Don’t overthink it. Unintended consequences happen.

My portfolio rose that much, but almost all of the gain was from two stocks: LUNR, QBTS. LUNR is possibly a play by investors rushing to space stocks because Elon Musk is going to do – something. (Is he an unintended consequence for this era?) QBTS is possibly a play by investors loving high-tech that must be good because it is so high-tech that they can’t understand it. LUNR might have a launch delay, which usually means a revenue delay. QBTS is a burgeoning quantum computing company, which is another way of saying that someday they might make a lot of money. Hey. I like both companies. I bought stock in both, but their values pre- and post-election changed 20%. Either the rockets were going to fly, or the qubits were going to compute, or not. Votes don’t matter to powerful reactions and sensitive circuits. LUNR is up 96%. QBTS is up 165%.

This surge is not universal. Four of my other stocks were down despite having news. GERN passed FDA approval for their blood cancer treatment. LCTX is making progress in treating spinal cord injuries and a kind of macular degeneration (an eye ailment.) MVIS – oh, just skip it. MVIS is decades of unintended consequences. SLDP is making progress with solid batteries, and possibly more important is the fact that the need for something better than what we’ve got becomes more apparent. (Note: I think SLDP reduces the need for certain rare materials from China, so maybe there’s a play there?)

Play. I’m glad I unintentionally used that word. Investing has an aura of diligent research, decades of tracking progress, and deep considerations. Ha. Sometimes, the market chases whatever looks bright and shiny. If you’re the one holding the bauble they want, you get to decide whether to Buy, Sell, or Hold.

I’m holding all of my shares. I think every stock I own has a “present value of future revenues discounted for risk” that is probably higher than its current market value. I think the investment community might be right to buy LUNR and QBTS because they have great potential in my opinion. Notice the word ‘opinion’. I haven’t conducted a mathematical analysis more sophisticated than noting their market capitalizations. Do they have the potential to be a multi-billion dollar company but ‘only’ worth a few hundred million? Then the reward might, might be worth the risk.

Perfect storms of bad luck will happen. I am one example of that. But unintended consequences can be positive surprises. Luck, good and bad, is more influential than most pundits will admit.

This surprising good news is unrealized, as in ‘unrealized gains’. Some have suggested that I sell. On occasion, they’ve been right. (See MVIS in early 2021 for that example.) On more occasions, I’ve missed out on greater gains by not holding. The most I’ve ever lost on a stock was 100%. Just picking one from memory was selling FFIV at ~$44 after buying it $5. Today, it closed at $250. Ain’t personal finance and investing in stocks fun?

Realistically, I’ve been through such swings before. I’ve found that a handy celebratory outlet is to let me gift me a small gift. If my portfolio goes up $10,000, I get to buy something for ~$100. Sometimes, something as simple as a pair of winter sweatpants or a fancy dinner out finds that balance between celebration and ‘don’t spend it all in one place’. (Hmm. My ten-year-old computer mouse may finally get replaced with an upgrade.)

We’re entering an era of unintended consequences. Politics, climate change, artificial intelligence, social unrest, the decentralization and electrification of our energy supply, and the possibility of a Digital Singularity all can effect changes before the next US Presidential election cycle. Fluky unintended consequences will be worth watching because they may not last long. November’s spike may abate, but I’m not going to chase the market. I am invested in our future. I plan to sell someday, but not while I think the stocks have significantly further to go. I’m also willing to be proved wrong if someone is silly enough to give me enough – and pardon me as my mind drifts off imagining scenarios in which that can happen. Hey, unintended consequences, you know?

(Reminder: My semi-annual portfolio review is due in a month. Stay tuned. And take care, too.)

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My Apologies To AT&T

Posted on November 22, 2024 by Tom Trimbath

(scroll to the bottom for the reconciliation – for now)
((and scroll there again for the end-of-November possible redemption))

My apologies, AT&T. I’ve been trying to resolve an issue with my AT&T account. I thought they were a simple set of questions, probably requiring some actions, not just answers. That shouldn’t be a problem. The first time I bought a smartphone was with AT&T. There were some issues, but a call to the corporation fixed an issue with a local store. Last month. I bought a new phone. This time didn’t go as well. But this time, the process is more automated, online, and AI-enabled. You can probably imagine how this went. At the start, I had hopes. Oh well, here I go and how it went!

With the new phone, my bill basically doubled to ~$180. Eep. Hey, AT&T, let’s resolve and review that. Or not.

If only I could talk to a person on my AT&T phone about my AT&T phone. Oddly, I was repeatedly told that the phone company isn’t allowed to make a phone call.

In summary, for those with less time (details follow, but you are welcome to skip ahead), I evidently lack the technical skills to use the phone app, the web site, the 611 system, and to follow the directions given by a new manager. I’ve been asked to do a lot of work, which, sadly, I am not trained for. I guess they’ll just have to fire me as an employee, er, customer. 

But, surely, there’s some simple resolution.

I feel sorry for the local guy in the local store. He’s already made manager after several months because he knows his stuff. Sadly, he has to deal with me, this guy who can’t follow the simplest directions. I mean really, he does this all day without a problem. Here comes this customer who is untrained in the AT&T system, despite being a customer for about a decade or more. I must be such an embarrassment. (Seriously, the dude does a better job than I’d do, but the store is a long way away.) I wonder if they have similar training for customers. Who pays whom for that?

I feel sorry for the several Customer Support folks I talked to. First, it required them to decipher my accent and put up with my poor attempts to hear through and declutter their poor phone connection. One thing that would help would be if they or I had better phone service. Irony, or simply modern life? After about 20 minutes, if they were able to answer my call, verify who I am,  and verify my account, they would tell me that I was being transferred to someone who could answer my questions and possibly act on my requests. I can’t recall getting an answer. Maybe that’s in there in my pages of notes.

I apologize for running out of patience after weeks of waiting as recommended, working through several sessions, attempting to connect successfully, and running out of ideas. Twitter (won’t call it X) was opened on a tab, so I vented a bit. My apology for being honest. Ah, but that produced another reason for an apology. 

I feel sorry for the Social Media manager who actually responded, who would get back to me in a few days, and who did – but did so on Twitter Message, which I didn’t know to look for. I did, however, sit by my phone waiting for them to call me with a ring or a ding or a vibrate or a flash. (BTW I am spending more time on BlueSky: tetrimbath.bsky.social .) My apology is because, despite their help, I was unable to log in to the online service. 

I wonder if I should feel sorry for the online service, the website that asked me for account login information for an account that I’ve never logged into. When it told me that it sent confirmation emails to my email account, of which I only have one, they never arrived. Maybe they’re wandering the World Wide Web. I hope the website isn’t spending a lot of resources waiting for my response. In Spam? Nope, though, ugh, that’s an ugly folder to open. (Later, I learned that it was sending the emails to an account from years ago.)

It can be so hard to find good help, er, customers, even ones who pay for a Business Unlimited Performance service. Wait. I’m paying for Unlimited Performance? I wonder when that happened. See, I am such an unschooled customer. (Hmm. I am schooled, but as an aerospace engineer. Maybe I should’ve gotten that business degree. My bad?) 

I got curious. Sitting there and trying not to stew, I decided to do some research. Maybe I’ll double-check these numbers, and maybe not. Nah. They’re not paying me enough. AT&T is, however, paying their CEO over $24,000,000 per year. The company made over $14,000,000,000 last year. And yet, somehow, a telephone company doesn’t budget enough to let people use a telephone to talk to people about their telephone. I wonder how much more the company would have to make to make that happen – or if it would even matter. I wonder what those Customer Service people are getting paid. What’s that Manager getting paid? What’s the Social Media Manager getting paid?

Sigh. Alas. Well, there are reliable systems. The US Postal Service is supposed to be reliable though slow, but could be fast compared to the electronic system that occupied me for weeks. I asked for a mailing address but was discouraged from mailing them a letter in an envelope because it would take too long. I never found the address. Bad me. 

A later night idea: AT&T at one time was American Telephone and Telegraph. Maybe I should send them a telegram. Oh. Maybe one of those ‘T’s is now Twitter (won’t call it X).

Is anyone surprised that I began considering options?

It was time to get ready for a dance class. There is a Verizon store along the way. I asked for a quick estimate for a personal phone plan that fits me. $180? Nope, $45. AT&T = $180 Verizon = $45 Hmm. Different plans and different amounts, no surprise Let me see…Dance is more important.


The dance is done (and was fun.) It is the next day. I didn’t make the switch because, as I was open with the person at Verizon, I give people second and third chances. 

Circa 4:30AM, I received a note via Twitter Message that my query was reassigned to the Business Team. (Isn’t that who I was communicating with all along?) I checked back after breakfast. Finally, after another attempt at catching another of their PINs, I asked where they were sending them to. Ah, the old, defunct, now wrong email. My apologies for not checking that sooner in the online account that I never used.

Rather quickly, two of my three questions were answered and resolved. Whew. They were small, but successes. Now, about the big one, the Plan that was now about as much as my bills had been with my old phone. This wasn’t about the Plan plus buying the new phone; the new Plan alone was the size of my old bill. Several Messages later, I finally saw the alternative Plans, but couldn’t find my old one. Some of the Plans did look appealing (cheaper). Sign me up! Oh. That’s the price per line for multiple lines. See, here is where I’m not good enough. I didn’t notice the fine print to read the fine print, and then after reading the fine print, I didn’t pull down the submenu with additional details. I am so bad at this.

Maybe the personal plans, like AT&T’s versions of Verizon’s, make more sense. Can I switch to them? Yes, but I’d have to start the process over with another department. Oh, to have the energy, the lack of a need for anxiety medication, the time, and the trust to begin that again. Again, I fall short of requirements.

Recently, I wrote about shopping and loyalty, about dealing with people instead of bureaucracies. (Stores Malls And Loyalty) With this and that in mind, I was glad for an interruption from a friend of mine, Steve Smolinsky (previously Project Faculty at Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania). We have a podcast, IntriguingCreativity.com . He’s a fun guy to trade business stories with. We should’ve recorded the conversation for an episode. We laughed a lot. Oh well, opportunity lost. As usual with us, we wound around to a conclusion that left us thinking. 

We laughed about me feeling like I was being treated as an employee who was not meeting expectations instead of a customer paying for a service. And we realized it was another aspect of a larger conversation. We pump our own gas. OK. We use the ATM instead of a teller. Convenient. But the trend hasn’t stopped. We’re encouraged to bag our groceries, and now to run the cash register (which may be cashless). And we’re effectively required to maintain our customer accounts. We get to manage all of these tasks for no pay, with no training, and with support that might be remote and might not even be a human. (Did I apologize to the AI that I confused along the way? There was one. It is so hard to keep enough notes. Ah, I contacted the Fraud department, just in case. It hung up.)

You may notice that at some point, I decided it was enough. The issues aren’t completely resolved, but the potential savings became less than the increased health care costs in terms of counseling, treatments, and medications. Switching will also effectively induce charges, but I have decided to recuperate before entering back into that battle.

In the meantime, some of those Verizon offers were attractive enough that I might get a second phone for the price of my savings from AT&T. An irony: The phone number I’ve carried with me since 2000 was originally a Verizon number. 

I’m glad Steve has a sense of humor. I expect we’ll talk soon. Maybe we should record that call. (BTW We record those calls over Google Meet. It is essentially a free video call. Ain’t that cool?)

PS AT&T’s system offered me the opportunity to comment on their service. OK. They asked for it. No charge.

PPS Yay! Around Thanksgiving, AT&T sent me the new bill. Much better, or at least it looks that way. The total is back to, and possibly less, than with the old phone. I paid it with relief. My congratulations to whoever at AT&T figured out how to deal with me. We humans, somehow managing to manage a myriad of systems. Maybe managing electronic systems will be AI’s ‘in’.

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Hoping And Coping

Posted on November 15, 2024 by Tom Trimbath

Seeking solace? Answers? Ways to hope and cope? Or are you being more pragmatic and planning and adapting? You don’t have to pick only one. The only constant is change, duh. You know that. But knowing that may not seem like enough. As I sat here in my tiny house trying to decide what to type about, I realized that my quandary was about what to write about. Then I realized, it would be best to write about all of it; or as much as is practical considering certain practical limits in my life as a human. Here’s a quick tour of things I am considering.

Trust me. I’ll get around to my personal finance implications.

Politics
Can’t ignore it, even though I prefer not to write about it. Regardless of which party won in the US elections, tens of millions of voters were disappointed (#massiveunderstatement) The election didn’t resolve any issues or form any cohesive coalitions. Both parties are seeing internal fractures. Fractures are also happening outside of organized parties. That will be contentious, but maybe that’s what’s necessary to redefine or remove a duopoly.

Accelerationists
Some people want to drive the systems to failure because they see that as the way through to more than redefining and removing a political duopoly. Societal norms and technological advances should shift, too, so they seem to think. That may be true. Unfortunately, I haven’t heard of any accelerationists who, whether explicitly or out of ignorance, aren’t willing to sacrifice millions or billions of other humans. The richest may hope to ride it out and survive. I also haven’t heard of any who think the cause is so just, necessary, and noble that they will sacrifice themself.

Patches
People and organizations seem to be emboldened to refocus and concentrate their resources on more specific tasks. If global and national initiatives haven’t succeeded at changing societies and cultures, then maybe working at the local level can succeed. Some legal defenses may be required. Some legal offenses may also be required. Many lawyers will be employed.

Climate
Climate isn’t laughing through all of this. Climate is a noun, not an entity – unless you want to discuss Gaia principles. Climate doesn’t laugh or cry. Climate does what climate does. Humans, however, are witnessing changes that are no longer academic, regardless of pundits. Millions of people are relocating, or trying to use technology to enable life in increasingly harsh environments, or adapting and coping to an amazing degree because they can’t afford to move or spend money on counter-measures. 

Aliens
It’s never aliens, until it is. I think an undiscovered, terrestrial intelligence is unlikely, but more likely than another intelligence from within our solar system, and much more likely than another intelligence from outside our solar system. All of the above is possible, too. The base words in UFO and UAP are appropriate: unidentified, flying, objects, aerial, phenonema. None of those words are ‘extraterrestrial’ or ‘alien’. I contend that one possibility is that, IF, IF, they are a real ‘they’, they could be from Earth or within our solar system. We’ve explored very little of Earth’s oceans, and subterranean realms. IF, IF, our model of physics is correct, then traveling between planets is more likely than traveling between stars or galaxies. And, readers who have read my sci-fi novels Firewatcher and Fire Race may notice that I can conceive of extra-dimensional travel that ignores our currently accepted travel limitations. Or, they’re all just pretty lights confusing our armed forces. Shrug.

Artificial Intelligence
It has always been sad and entertaining watching governments try to keep up with technology. Governments had a chance until the start of the Industrial Revolution. Since then, well, they barely kept up with the railroads and haven’t updated those policies in decades. Ask Amtrak. So, now, artificial intelligence? It has more autonomy than climate does. AI really can laugh at the pace of politics. Debates continue on how to constrain AI, yet we can’t even contain spammers. AI will advance regardless of policies. Whether it ever achieves sentience or not, it will at least reach a level of perceived competence that challenges human skills. Note that I emphasize ‘perceived’. If true competence was an objective criterion for managing human society, very few politicians would be elected.

Implications
Much of what I described ignores Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs. That’s sad. It is also a possibility of an overlooked opportunity. Build your own life raft, both to protect yourself but also to provide safety to others. Granted, some of the accelerationists are building yachts and bunkers, but they are a silly few, and I am glad there are so few of them. 

Build your own life raft. Housing, food, and sanitation are a good baseline to establish. All of those things are available in a 16th-floor penthouse, but that is more fragile than some acreage on arable land above the flood one in a temperate climate with adequate rain. Add in education, especially if children are involved. Health. Healthcare is good too, but that doesn’t necessitate health insurance. Insurance is not care, I am sure. Add to your pyramid as is reasonable.

Be aware of the major changes, but first, react to your basic needs. That may involve activism, but reacting to your needs according to your values may mean buying from local farmers, even if it costs a bit more. If you can, grow your own. But don’t hide in a shell. Politicians may be poor managers, but they can enact policies that require a response, or a purposeful lack of one.

One major change seems to be happening in the investment world. (See. I told you I’d get around to finance.) Mega-corps are likely to continue to climb. At least in the near term, irrational ideologies may create irrational exuberance in certain companies and industries. Taking advantage of where supposedly serious people are being silly with their money can be profitable. I don’t have to indulge in their products to benefit from buying the company’s stock. Men are shaving their groins? Really!? Well, it isn’t much sillier than expecting women to wax and shave, and that’s been a big industry for decades. Maybe that’s how far such an industry can grow.

Casablanca
Casablanca keeps coming to mind, the movie, not the place. The thoughts keep coming back to Captain Renault. Bogart may have been the lead. Ingrid Bergman did a marvelous job. But, Renault’s character (expertly acted by Claude Rains) can be a role model for some. He was fictional, of course, but he represented an interesting character. Throughout much of the movie, he is seen as self-centered, an opportunist, the ultimate pragmatist. Close down this gambling establishment and thank you for my winnings. In the end, he is revealed to be someone who did what he could, with what he had, sometimes doing things he didn’t want to do, but eventually enabling a grander goal.

A grander goal.

There are many grand goals to strive for. Pick your own, within reason, of course. I continue to strive to make my life more sustainable, to help my community, and to take advantage of opportunities that happen to arrive. (I’m glad I bought LUNR, as a start.) And, Rick, I know why you did what you did, and saying good bye to Ilsa was the right and noble thing to do, but ouch! What a sacrifice you made. Ah, but it was all for the better…I hope.

PS Want a more mixed perspective? Steve Smolinksy and I have a podcast, IntriguingCreativity.com . The November 2024 episode was not about politics, but the consequences of politics – kinda.

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Maybe A Magna Carta Moment

Posted on November 8, 2024 by Tom Trimbath

The world is in turmoil – and has been. Today’s answer has been to hand out ears and hugs. Don’t take that literally. Ears were for listening. Hugs were for sharing. For those with the capacity, conversations were handy. Thanks to all for sharing. One conversation led to one insight that tied into another, which may mean we’re about to have another historic moment, what I am calling and planning for, a Magna Carta Moment. When things get too dysfunctional, find something more functional, even if you have to make it up.

For those readers reading this in the future (is it possible to read it from the past?), earlier this week was an election in the US. For readers in the far-enough future, the US stands for a country called the United States of America, which aren’t looking very united, and in America, which many assume only means North America but which Central and South American countries can point out is not all-inclusive. The vote was not unanimous. It never is. There is always dissension. So it goes.

But it may not always go as it has gone. Being ready for change can be academic, but this week, it looks very practical and pragmatic.

Governments change. Usually, the change is relatively peaceful. Occasionally not. The US did not experience a governmental change; it experienced an administrative shift. That shift may be dramatic, but most of the paperwork stays the same.

That wasn’t always the case. We humans probably started out as random groups of individuals. Eventually, our ancestors stabilized into tribes, then klans, then warlords, then… The changes didn’t happen all at once everywhere. Communications weren’t that omnipresent. Another eventually happened as some societies became kingdoms and monarchies. There were experiments in democracies and republics, socialisms, communisms, other -isms. Variations ensue. 

Governments were based on geography. Alvin Toffler’s book Powershift pointed out that, as technology and communication progressed, information would become more important that geography. The site of an army may not be as powerful as the concentration of the control of information. That may seem inevitable. Those who control physical power may react irrationally to the shift, the powershift, to those who control information. 

I’ve been thinking about the shift in power since I read the book decades ago.

The shift from tribes and klans to kingdoms and empires was barely within historical records. A more recent shift was recent in a relative sense, in 1215, when a bunch of barons told a king he had to obey the law, hence, the Magna Carta. Some violence preceded the event. More violence followed as rights were fought over. Centuries were involved. The monarchy was seen as losing, yet we still have monarchies. Some power brokers continue to like the authoritarian command of a king. Some people like having an individual in absolute control.

Seque to technology

We are also in a technological change. Debate if you want to, but whether Artificial Intelligence leads to a Digital Singularity may be moot. Technology is enabling a concentration of information, and information is power. One well-recognized author is Ray Kurweil, who I recommend for some perspective. I don’t agree with everything he says, but I think his looking-ahead is more useful than current politicians looking-behind.

As I wrote recently about my science fiction novel, Firewatcher;

The future is happening fast. 
Firewatcher started as an image and an idea in the mid-2010s.
…
At the time, several trends were projected to reach critical levels in 2100. Artificial Intelligence, climate change, and political and societal shifts were projected to alter our world. Media reports frequently used the term ‘conservative estimates.’
…
My read on the media was that 2100 was too far off. My suspicion for each of the affects could be more like 2040.
 
If the world was going to change that soon, I should write the book soon.

I wrote the book in a bit of a rush, and am glad. Governmental changes can span centuries. Technological changes are happening in terms of months. There is a potential that technology can make governments more moot than they want to be. The governments might not like that. Today’s turmoil may only be a precursor to greater turmoil. 

Turmoil doesn’t have to be bad, but it is usually unsettling. Planning for it is a guessing game with low odds, but maybe we must. Mm. No maybe about it. Plan, but don’t be surprised when the situations change again.

Turmoil at such a level can upset not just markets, not just currencies, not just economies, but the very concept of economies and currencies and markets. 

Nah. It will never happen. 

How many times has that been said and thought lately?

Another author I’ll add to the mix, but only for people who aren’t startled by the possibility of a Magna Carta Moment, Dan Simmons. Dan Simmons is an excellent writer. I know his work from his science fiction that implicitly postulates future economies and cultures far enough in the future that the characters don’t understand much of our modern life. In more academic terms, he writes about a post-scarcity economy. 

Or, skip the academic and think about the economy of Star Trek. The Ferengi deal with money, which confuses the folks on the Enterprise. Watching reruns may be easier than reading yet another book. Capitalism clashes with post-scarcity.

For me, I am going to skip those considerations in this post because I’m not trying to write that book. (There are other books on my list. Stay tuned.)

For now, we still have to make money to pay expenses to live. I continue to invest in stocks and companies. We may see less control over monopolies and oligarchies, which doesn’t work well for the small-cap stocks I invest in, but I am not sure, so I am watching. Companies that are more information-centric than geographic-centric are more appealing. Big infrastructures may not be able to adjust quickly, though space-focused industries may be at a critical and positive junction.

As I mentioned above, “Artificial Intelligence, climate change, and political and societal shifts were projected to alter our world.” Of those four fields, I think the first two are the soonest. “We will never forget!” proclamations have kept some societies anchored in stories from thousands of years ago. Climate change is happening now, but I think we’ve only seen the beginnings. A hundred years from now, we’ll still be dealing with it. Politics can change with a tweet, but systemic change is more likely to take decades. Equal rights continues to be resisted. Will WWJD become ascendant?

Artificial Intelligence can seem an abstraction and a distraction, but its changes can happen in months, and in the extreme, in minutes.

What’s a person to do?

Cope. Have values that you understand, not values imposed by others. Be compassionate and collaborative because no one is going through this alone. For me, I’m glad I am frugal – and wish I had a sustainable house on sustainable land that could sustain me through major interruptions.

Gotta work on that.

I doubt my friends are surprised that I’ll continue to write.

Friends are customizing their responses. Several are moving to seemingly safer places. Those who can’t move are interested in learning coping skills. One friend’s life has always had to deal with injustices, and they are staying. They’ve been exercising those skills for decades out of necessity, not choice. Their family has been doing so for generations. Whatever skill you seek, there’s probably someone out there who can teach it to you. Ask nicely.

There are many responses. Positive ones may be best. Learning to cope is better than not coping. Finding creative projects, particularly ones that are expressive and possibly profitable can be gratifying in multiple ways. New businesses are already forming so control stays close, not at someone else’s command. And then there’s “living far from the things of man.” (Hmm. May be time to rewatch Joe Versus the Volcano.)

Plans. Plans. Plans. Scenarios, possibilities, probabilities – bah! At some point, I remember to breathe, feel, watch, smile, listen, hug, and definitely dance. A slow waltz for contemplation, followed by some swing to fling the energies away? Those are things that we pesky humans have been doing throughout all of our history, no philosophizing or planning required.

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Reblog: Fire Race Launched

Posted on November 1, 2024 by Tom Trimbath
Fire Race Launched

I’ve got a new book! Yeah! And I also have a separate blog devoted to my writing. Someone asked for it, so all of those posts have their own home, and this blog can stick closer to personal finance – but sometimes books and finances are linked, so it all gets a bit messy. Hey, that’s like life! Fire Race is the sequel to Firewatcher, and the mid-point in an eventual trilogy. Click through for more of the story, or click to jump to the Amazon page (no other option, yet.)

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Undeferring Deferred Shopping

Posted on October 25, 2024 by Tom Trimbath

Let’s go shopping! About this time last year, I wrote the post, Undeferring Deferred Maintenance (September 2023). I had a breakthrough, or a breakdown, or whatever but I found a way to launch into some chores that had been deferred for too long, in some cases over a decade. That was the maintenance. This year is the shopping. The shopping is happening because I sold the house that I did the maintenance on. Hello, cash. Hello, moving. Hello, realizing it was finally time to replace a few, ha, a lot of things. Relief? For sure. An education? More than I expected. Lessons? Yep.

I just glanced at my hands while I paused typing this. Age and time change things. My skin has a few more wrinkles. Age spots have shown up. Surprisingly, some youthful scars are gone. 

It isn’t much of a surprise that it is time to replace worn-out things. We pesky humans can complain about aging, but we regenerate, at least partly. 

You will be spared the list of everything I bought, unless you want to zoom in on this picture. Soon after moving into my tiny house (mytinyexperiment.com), I taped a sheet of flip chart paper to the bathroom door. I realized the list of things to replace was so long that I had to take notes. As ideas came to mind, I wrote them down. The list grew and isn’t done. As things were bought, they were crossed off the list.

My lifestyle has improved.

My cash has diminished, but not much compared to what I made from the house. Most of the house proceeds went into buying my tiny house, about as much into investments, and as much into cash to possibly pay taxes (True Tax Relief). Compared to those buckets, the purchases are small. Compared to what I had last year, the purchases were impossible. 

I guess I am not a geek’s geek because I didn’t turn the list into a spreadsheet. I have saved all of the receipts, though. A quick estimate of the expenses is about $10K. That’s a lot of money, and it’s not.

Some of the larger items: computer, phone, washer/dryer, nice toaster oven, induction burner, etc. Plus a few major maintenance tasks: tree trimming, kitchen faucet, 100,000 mile maintenance. Let’s make that about $12,000.

For some folks, $10K to $12K would be like getting an extra job without having to go to work. For some folks, it’s the roundoff error in their IRA, which could be positive or negative.

For me, it is a reminder of how close a better lifestyle was, as well as how far away. It was tantalizing, as in Tantalus’ torment in Hades. 

Things work better now. I spend less time rigging up patches as fixes, knowing they are temporary. My equipment is much more capable. I’m using them as before, but I’m also practicing with their new features as they open creative possibilities that I’ve seen others exercise. Stay tuned for more videos and photo essays.

Things are also more difficult, now. Even my washer/dryer is run by an AI! Each machine could warrant a class, or at least a good owner’s manual, but at best I find a link, and sometimes only a QR code. Falling behind in upgrades also meant falling behind in the incremental educational lessons for a decade. (And here I pause as I hold myself back from venting about companies that mistake New for Improved.)

Breathe in. Breathe out.

Where was I? Oh, yes. Shopping.

And the deliveries.

It is tempting to imagine buying all of those things all at once. Instant Gratification. That’s what shopping malls were good for, one-stop shopping. Or Amazon, one-stop shopping in the biggest mall in the world, and maybe next-day delivery.

I slow that down. Pick what’s most urgent, or at least convenient. Ideally, buy a thing, wait for the thing, get the thing, unpack the thing, learn how to use the thing, then buy the next thing. Pacing. Of course, with some small things, it is okay to buy a few. Luckily, I’ve never had the UPS, USPS, and FedEx deliveries collide. 

Currently, I’m waiting for the bulk delivery of my newest book, Fire Race, the sequel to Firewatcher; and while I wait, I ordered some storage bins for my tiny house. After that comes a camera, and …

And, soon, the list will be largely complete. Ten years of deferred shopping has convinced me of how little I need. Doing without becomes a habit. But it is nice to quit trying to convince a ten-year-old laptop that the internet has changed in the meantime. (Zoom calls can be so embarrassing at the time and entertaining in retrospect.)

So, stay tuned as new books, photos, and stories come along. If only I can figure out the arcane language that alludes me when I try to Search or Find what I’m looking for. Is there an Index I can highlight with a pen and plaster with post-its?

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Fire Race And More

Posted on October 18, 2024 by Tom Trimbath

Yay! My book is published! Fire Race, the sequel to Firewatcher is available for sale on Amazon. (I suspect you can ask your library for a copy, too.) If the world was normal, this post would be about that and nothing else. The world isn’t normal. Here’s the “And More” part of the title, too. And, an insight into the value of time.
Fire Race Is Published

There’s always going to be a new reader who hasn’t met my bookshelf. Fire Race is my ninth book, my second science fiction novel, and the sequel to Firewatcher, a story about a bunch of humans that escape Earth to escape the AI threat before it threatens them more. In Firewatcher, they find the planet (Whew) and then find the aliens (uh oh) who aren’t aliens because they’re the locals and the humans are the aliens. They survive, and then find out about fire and seafood. That’s where the second book takes over. Can they race the fire? Thanks to all of the Firewatcher readers who asked for the sequel. And, there’s a sequel to the sequel. (And thanks to Joe Menth of Feather and Fox for making the cover happen.)

That took a couple of years.

This week was also the week when our podcast went live on Spotify. IntriguingCreativity.com is simply Steve Smolinsky and me talking about the weirdness of the world, unintended consequences, and how people somehow manage. Once a month, we play with our stream-of-consciousness, that usually starts out simple and somehow gets around to global issues. No script. Ten episodes so far. Stay tuned for more.

Getting onto Spotify took only ten minutes of talking to Sean Keeley (www.seankeeley.me/), and months of me trying to do it alone. Asking for help helps.

Then, earlier this week, I sat in on a County Commissioners’ meeting. I live in a mobile home park that accepts tiny houses, which is why I bought one and moved there five months ago. And, they’re selling the park. That story is too typical. I have no official job, but I happened to do something I evidently do well enough: I took notes and wrote them up. Now, they’re being referenced by some folks who couldn’t be there. Couple that with attending a presentation about affordable housing (expertly given by Jefferson County’s Housing Solutions Network), and the week held a lot of news that matters to me and my neighbors.
October Update – They Are Selling My Park

That story has been playing out since I got my first letter in the new house’s mailbox.

I needed a break. Friday afternoon, I decided to visit my storage unit and grab a paperback or two to read. A storm is blowing through, and if the power goes out, I want to have something entertaining that doesn’t require batteries. But first, swing past the mailbox. Hmm. Nothing much – except a ballot. Pick it up. Swing back home. Fill it out. Less than eleven minutes later I drove to a mailbox. Voted.

A friend noted that he can not recall any time when I haven’t been busy. 

It looks like I’m about to try. The book is done, but my copies haven’t arrived yet. The podcast is on Spotify, but there’s little to do about that until next month’s episode. My park may be for sale, but real estate transactions, especially ones involving affordable housing and a hundred households, can hit hurdles. And, I voted. I ignored a lot of the political commentary before. And I can go back to ignoring it now and later. 

Will I finally have some time off? Yes, and no.

A common bit of advice to writers is that writing a book is only half the job. Yes, and no. Take a look back at my first book, Just Keep Pedaling. It took 11 weeks to bicycle from an island north of Seattle to an island south of Miami, a year or two to write the book, and here I am still telling folks about the book decades later. That’s true of all of my books. Fire Race has a similar potential, partly because of the story partly because of insights about people and aliens experiencing dissension and resolution, and also for unintended consequences. At its core is the human reaction to deciding to escape an unconquerable threat, and dealing with the life that follows.

And then there’s the sequel.

But first, there’s the sequel to another of my books, the one about personal finance. Soon, I’ll start on From Middle Class To Millionaire To Mostly Muddling By – a rollercoaster ride through America’s wealth classes. Regular readers of this blog have been reading the years of notes that are its basis. Thanks for being there.

Time is precious. I definitely fill my time, but there are arguments, or at least discussions, about whether I fill it productively. So far, I have yet to fill it monetarily profitably. There’s a fine debate: is work worth doing if it doesn’t produce tangible worth? Ideally, yes. Realistically – well, the term starving artist is not new. 

OK. Time for me to close, edit, post, and then dine. Stop writing! At least for an evening, and maybe a weekend. Just let me write down some notes… 

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Reblog: October Update – They Are Selling My Park

Posted on October 15, 2024 by Tom Trimbath

A core personal finance issue that’s personal and real and larger than me. Terms like Affordable Housing can become so commonplace that they’re easy to ignore. Here’s a specific case that’s happening to my neighborhood. As I wrote in the post, “Of all the folks unlucky enough to be affected and in the room, I may have been the least unlucky.” Will a hundred households have to move, and if so, where and how?

Cross posted from one of my other blogs. (Yeah, I have a few.)

MyTinyExperiment.com – Can an over six-foot, over 200 pound, 65 year-old man live in a big tiny house – especially after writing about them for over ten years?

https://www.mytinyexperiment.com/blog/october-update-they-are-selling-my-park

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