A Rakkasan Twitter Mystery

Posted on October 23, 2018 by Tom Trimbath

The mysterious box is opened. The kettle is warming up, heading to “A full rolling boil”. A friendly tea provider has been consulted. A typo has been found. Just another episode in my not-so-boring life. Thanks, Twitter, I guess. And thanks, Rakkasan Tea Company for a pleasant and probably aromatic surprise.

Ah, I hear the water boiling.

Put my nose in the rising mist as I pour the hot water onto the leaves and into a tea pot for steeping. So, there’s the aroma. It wasn’t as pronounced when I opened the tin.

Tea poured, most of which goes into a thermos for tomorrow because it is too late in the day to drink too much tea – if I want to sleep.

And, before I take a sip, notice an email from a client in Japan. (Real estate, it’s not constrained by time, time zones, or continents. So glad to be able to work electronically; but I digress.)

At least this means the tea isn’t scalding when I finally take a sip. Ah. Nice. Definitely a good mid-morning to mid-afternoon tea.

How did this all happen? I don’t know, but I can guess.

When I got home from work I was surprised to find a cardboard cube of a box in the mailbox. It barely fit, just right. I hadn’t ordered anything, but my neighbors do. Just last week, one of their packages ended up in my box. No problem. Check the label and hand the package to them. But, just like the surprise gift from Lands End, there was my name, correctly spelled to the correct address on the label. A very nice departure from bills and election rhetoric. Check the return address. Rakkasan Tea Company. Never heard of them. While most folks would Google it, (there’s that noun becoming a verb) I have better sources. Five, yes, at least five of my friends have owned tea shops or sell high-end tea. Maybe one of them know about the company and can tell me what’s happening.

Brian and Kachi are dear friends who own and run Dandelion Botanical Company “a Natural Apothecary since 1996“. Go check out their site, or even better, visit the store that has now become a bit of a tourist attraction for its selection, ambiance, expertise, and personalities. OK, folks. Ever heard of Rakkasan Tea Company? Nope. And yet, it’s just the sort of tea that Dandelion would sell. Rakkasan is a young company (2017) that will “import solely from carefully selected estates in post-conflict countries as a way to promote peace and economic growth“. Sounds good. I might have to share a bit with Brian and Kachi, as well as some of my more local tea aficionados. (Though, it may be cheaper to ship them some. The gas mileage of my pickup is not exactly eco-friendly.)

The gift, which I’m assuming is a gift because there was no receipt or note, is nicely packaged: a good tight tin that holds about two ounces of tea and could probably hold more. Black Jasmine, which as they point out “is traditionally made with green tea” is therefore distinctive.

The greater distinction is the company, the possible reason I received the tea, and the fascinating collision of coincidences this day has produced.

Skip past organic. This tea is: harvested by a single family, from 300-400 year old wild trees, is ethically and sustainably produced, and sold by U.S. Army veterans who want to promote peace in post-conflict countries. That’s a lot to keep track of.

By the way, this tea is so drinkable that I’m halfway through the cup that I said I wouldn’t finish this late in the day I guess I’ll be up late watching a movie or something.

Here’s how the business world works now. U.S. Army vets, selling Vietnamese tea, under a Japanese name, with a Japanese Torii gate for an icon (and trust me I noticed the Japanese theme today, particularly getting to work with my real estate clients), all from a company that’s based in Texas. Blended teas are common, but this is a cultural blend, too.

Here’s how the electronic world works now. I use social media. I’ve been using Facebook for almost a decade. (I’d check but Facebook is so slow now that I only visit occasionally, or from a faster computer.) I spend more time on Twitter (@tetrimbath), with some time on LinkedIn (Thomas Trimbath), and Tumblr. (Bye bye, Google+.) In the midst of my posts about personal finance, real estate, community, and news that has me “Pretending Not To Panic”, I also post the same sort of innocuous comments that more real people do.

Just for fun, I started posting about the teas I was drinking. A tough morning? Something stout to power through, like one of the breakfast teas that mix Assam and Keemun. A tough afternoon? Probably something herbal, maybe with chamomile if I’ve been wound up too long. Green fits nicely into an afternoon, though I wouldn’t want a thermos of it. And then there are those herbal infusions (but we call them teas, anyways) that were inspired by Brian and Kachi’s blends. My typical blend is nettles (provided a friend whose property has more than enough), lemon balm (from my front yard), lavender (from my yard), mint (from my yard and some from Dandelion Botanical), and honeybush (from Dandelion). Thanks to too much time working in the steel mill to get through college I don’t have the refined taste buds of other friends who operate tea businesses, like Dori Hallberg; but I enjoy a variety. So, I share little notes about my cups of tea often enough that someone suggested a hashtag, #TomTea.

I don’t know, but I realize it is possible, that Rakkasan stumbled across my tea posts, and decided to subtly introduce themselves to me through tea. That’s my story, for now.

The world no longer works from conventional business models or communication channels. Klout.com, which just went out of business, tried disrupting Google the way Google disrupted Yahoo the way Yahoo disrupted newspaper ads. Ads are pushed and broadcast and spread across populations, hoping to find enough sales. Yahoo collected the market niches into categories that made it easier to target. Google found a way to target people who searched for a term rather than joined a group. Klout tried what’s called the Reputation Economy, where it’s cheaper to contact certain individuals hoping to encourage them to spread the word. Rakkasan sent me a tin of tea. Tea = $17.99. Shipping probably < $10. Labor cost for noticing the tweet and deciding to send me something = I don’t know. But, I do know that $100 doesn’t buy much of an ad in the paper; and that only runs once. Advertising is always a risk, and depending on how many and which people they contact, the reward could be far greater.

Look back a few weeks to the package I received from Lands End. Since then, I blogged about it, tweeted about it, told dozens of my friends the story, and equally importantly I’ve returned to their site to line up my next purchase. (For every successful real estate transaction I tend to buy one or two more pieces for my aging and fading wardrobe. A necessary and welcome treat.) I’ll tell this story, too. And I won’t be surprised to find that I got it wrong, which will prolong our conversation. Maybe that’s why they didn’t send me a note: suspense.

Rather than caffeinate myself into insomnia, I’m nibbling on another appropriate synchronicity. These zucchini slices may not be cucumber slices, a traditional tea accompaniment, but they’ll suffice to make me grin with the way so many things came together, today.

Thanks to Rakkasan Tea Company, I’ll try to tag them on Twitter and Linkedin. (They’re welcome to tag me or Trimbath Creative Enterprises.) Thanks for the story. Now, I just have to figure out the best way to point out a typo on their tin. See, that’s what happens when a writer gets involved.

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Economics Recessions Elections And Prognostications

Posted on October 16, 2018 by Tom Trimbath

So, what do you think will happen next? There’s only one word in that question with more than one syllable. Such simple words are signs of ancient origins. We’ve probably always asked that question. The world is weirder and changing faster than ever. Just because it is difficult to find an answer doesn’t mean we quit asking the question. The political debates come down to one person and one ballot on one day multiplied by the number of people who care enough to vote. (And, if you don’t vote, don’t complain.) The money side of things is much more personal, affects us every day, and affects our personal finance plans. What you think will happen next isn’t as important as what you’ll do next. Welcome to my exploration.

Economics
Science is measured by whether it can make predictions. By that measure, economics is a terrible science, or at least an immature one. Now that data are more available and the consequences of actions can be seen on a global and systemic scale, old assumptions in the new science of economics are being challenged. Read, watch, or listen to some of the stories in Freakonomics and watch stereotypes fly apart. Drug dealers may only make minimum wage, but it’s sometimes their best choice. Violence and crime correlate with a decrease of lead in the environment and an increase in the availability of abortions. There may be a Nobel Prize in Economics, but young students witnessing the world are revolting against conventional wisdom, and even the doctrine taught to them in college.

Economics lag. Causes and effects are frequently separated by years or generations. A current economic boom is probably produced by policies instituted years earlier, and acted upon by people’s spending and savings habits that are influenced by previous booms and busts.

Economics are chaotic. The chaos isn’t random, but it is the mathematical definition of chaos where chaos means the system is so complex that it may be impossible to accurately predict what will happen next. Based on that success rate, economics wouldn’t be in demand; but people need plans so people will study and listen to economics news for any help they can get.

Economics may be unpredictable, but personal actions can be more certain. Spend less than you make. Invest the rest. Repeat. It isn’t a panacea. Income and expenses are not always in our control. Income can be ruled by a boss or a clientele, or a hurricane blowing through your house. Expenses can be ruled by accidents and medical bills. Income can also be ruled by the lottery and expenses can be forgiven (both with similar odds.)

Recessions
Recession to recovery to recession to recovery to repetition. Recessions and recoveries are bounces around a norm that the US economy rarely settles down to. We’ve become accustomed to booms and busts, some shallow, some extreme, some regional, some national. The norm is to never sit on the norm. We’re experiencing one of the longest recoveries in US history. Guess what will happen next. Its inevitability isn’t in question, just the specific timing and magnitude. Some system studies conclude that the system is unstable, not under some overt or covert control, and will continue to experience wider swings. Higher highs and lower lows are the norm. As wild as the US economy has been, it is relatively stable compared to Venezuela’s million percent inflation, currency devaluations in Turkey, and sixty percent interest rates in Argentina.

Each recession gets pinned to a scapegoat. The housing bubble, the Internet stock bubble, the silver bubble, … Assets chase assets. People who are saving more are sensitive to where putting their money may mean saving less. So, if commodities were a bubble that burst, put the money in stocks – until they burst then put the money in housing – until it burst then put the money in commodities – and then oil drops and threatens nations so put the money in private equity or Bitcoin or some computer managed combination of the lot.

But, for people with a long enough view and enough patience and resources to let the money sit, there can be impressive gains thanks to time. Apple stock was great, then it sank, now it’s phenomenal – as long as you waited twenty or thirty years. (And I, in youthful rebellion, sold when they kicked out Steve Jobs, and never bought back in. Sigh.) Simple houses in Seattle, or where I live (and now am a real estate broker) on Whidbey Island never seemed like much until the region is ‘discovered’ and prices soar. They’ve soared to levels that are still cheap compared to the rest of the major cities on the Pacific Rim.

Recessions are temporary. So are recoveries. Lives last longer. Set a simple course to make it through each, and repeat.

Elections
Politics. Sigh. I so long for the simpler times of Watergate. Elections mattered then, too; but now they’re existential. They’re also more about wining the game than about managing the nation. And yet, whoever wins will take credit and shift blame for whatever happens the day after the election. Someone won and the market went up? They may take the credit, but the previous politician had more influence. The market went down? Blaming the previous people happens even faster.

Elections do matter. They always have. Because of elections, enough people were elected to institute policies that helped me renegotiate rather than lose my mortgage and my house. Tying today’s politics to today’s economy, however, gives too much credit to the economy’s agility. It’s isn’t that smart, maneuverable, or controllable.

And yet, the economy is due for a shift, which will probably result in a recession, which will affect the next election.

And yet, and yet, I was glad to see that my Voter’s Pamphlet arrived today. I like being able to vote (and then complain.) I almost was in this one, but work and inconvenience helped me miss a deadline. Maybe next time. Just as in economics, a big messy situation can be reduced to simple personal actions. Spend less than you make. Invest the rest. And vote.

Prognostications
I can feel comfortable prognosticating because I am told very few readers have the attention span to read this many words. Congratulations if you got this far.

Our economy, politics, environment, and society are all mathematically chaotic systems. Technology is changing concurrently and is faster than the rest. Making A prognostication is a silly game. Whatever happens will not happen to everyone. The news will hit the highlights and make them sound universal, but the recent news coverage of the Florida hurricane proved my point. The camera swept past piles of rubble twenty feet high. The properly ruffled newscaster described the terrible scene, and was right. But, right behind the rubble was an apartment complex that didn’t seem damaged. Houses were swept away, which is why we should respond because they are proxies for the people involved. But other houses weren’t. They’re less likely to be mentioned, except by prudent reporters and planners. But the stories of the houses and lives that weren’t damaged aren’t dramatic, so they can’t fit into a three minute news segment.

There will be chaos under heaven, and for some, the situation will be – at least acceptable, and not worth noticing, but worth living. Frugal, prudent, and prepared may be boring, but they’re also more likely to avoid the dramas that disrupt lives.

My prognostication: Live simply. It isn’t a panacea, either, but it is one of the best plans a person can personally act upon.

As for my forty year mortgage. Really? I don’t even know if we’ll have the same country in a year. Sure. I’ll take that lower rate, thank you very much.

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Learning From Science Fiction

Posted on October 10, 2018 by Tom Trimbath

I like sci-fi, but not just any science fiction. I like hard sci-fi, the kind of science fiction that makes me think about our society, our world, and our reality. This is not about Star Trek versus Star Wars, which some call science fantasy because the science isn’t always very scientific. This is about perspectives as diverse as utopian to dystopian to otherwise unimaginable – some of which is happening in our politics, technology, society, and environment. I may be Pretending Not To Panic like many people, but decades of reading sci-fi means I’m surprised as I am disappointed. I’m also inspired enough to begin writing some, too.

Star Trek and Star Wars get most of the attention. Blockbusters make that happen in a self-fulfilling prophecy. Look beyond warp drive versus hyperdrive and check out their perspectives.

Star Trek envisions a utopia that we reach by passing through catharsis. Society has abandoned capitalism, eliminated poverty, embraced egalitarianism, and left internal wars behind. All of the nasty bits are left to aliens to introduce for drama. Want to see how we get past dystopia to utopia? Watch the Deep Space Nine episode called Past Tense. Things had to get very bad before they got good.

Star Wars relies on internal conflict with the Rebellion, the Republic, the First Order and a variety of agendas. The Jedi may represent utopia, but they’re eliminated, sort of, maybe – wait for the ninth movie. Some people are driven by ideology, others by power, others by money, and their driving motivations can shift. Nothing is stable. Everything is dramatic. It makes for a good series of stories.

Today’s world, however, is something I see reflected in the stories that best reveal themselves in books. William Gibson and Philip K. Dick describe a near-future on Earth with environmental catastrophe, massive income and wealth inequality, and a power shift from governments to corporations. Some of their books became movies: Johnny Mnemonic and Blade Runner, movies set in a dark tone where people grind through dysfunctional societies trying to carve a niche and secure it against injustice. Like I said, Dark.

The movies are engaging, but the books are useful. When I read the news today, I see echoes of sci-fi stories that explored the various themes that many thought would never arise in American and modern society. Surely we’d never…whatever. A two hour movie can flash the concept onto a screen, but the books behind them delve into motivations and implications. The unexpected consequences that can’t make it to the screen are fascinating and too familiar. George Orwell’s 1984 and Animal Farm are good starts to understanding the ease with which authoritarians can rise and rule. My favorites, however, are the authors who take an idea, play what-if, write the book, listen to their personal insights, listen to the readers’ insights, and explore further in the next, and the next, and the next, and maybe invite other authors to play within that realm.

My long time favorite is Larry Niven. He started simply, as most authors do (except for J. K. Rowling) and built on readers’ reactions and his own curiosity. His Known World series is more realistic than movies because his explorations are more complex. Advances in medicine influence finance which influence colonization which influence societal bifurcation which… And then throw in some aliens that are truly alien with alien agendas and perspectives and the stories don’t get old. One story line even spawned a series of PhDs. He wrote about a world that’s a massive ring around a star; Ringworld. It is one of his best sellers because it is a good story, and thought provoking. It provoked so many thoughts that science and engineering students analyzed it, wrote theses about it, and got their degrees because of it. He listened and extended the series with Ringworld Engineers where he gave more life to their insights, and created stories that explored the implications there and all the way back to Earth.

I watch the news now as if each item is a three minute movie that I know has bookcases of complexity behind each report. Lately, I’m seeing more similarities with sci-fi. The technologies are following the courses set out decades ago, but it is the societal implications that resonate disturbingly closely to those dystopian worlds.

A more recent favorite is Dan Simmons. He has fewer books than Larry Niven, but he nicely dives into the blending of the advancement of technology by different factions familiar within our current society. Summarizing a series of books into a movie is tough. Doing so in these few sentences has to fall far shorter, but I can pass along one possibility that dramatically changes society’s path. As technology becomes easier to implement and as governments become less associated with their citizenry, people become more trusting of technology than of their governments. Smart assistants like Alexa are remarkably like the Big Brother devices from 1984. People were startled to learn that they were going to receive a Presidential Alert on their mobile phones, but pay for the privilege of having a computer track their location, activities, health condition, shopping habits, and maybe even help pick a mate. Do we turn over our wars to robots? Do we trust personal defences more than municipal police forces?

Some of my friends are surprised that I’m not more surprised with what’s happening. Thanks to lots of reading, I’ve unfortunately seen most of it before, even the manipulation of the masses through computerized manipulation of their information. Dive into Isaac Asimov’s Foundation series for the work of the fictional character Hari Seldon.

Reading prepares me to act, not just react, and not just watch others take actions that affect me. Reading books help me manage my money and my life choices by witnessing stories before they happen.

I have ideas, too. In addition to my regular gigs and jobs, I’ve been writing a science fiction novel that helps me explore concepts of consciousness, technological backlash against technological omnipresence, and a diaspora. What started as a simple idea is growing. Whether it will grow as well as it has for other authors isn’t as important as the personal exploration that helps me understand the world.

And then, there are those unintended consequences.

Last night a friend and fellow writer (Don Scoby aka @WIBakingCo) and I gave a presentation at one of the local libraries about self-publishing. I’ve given the presentation several times solo, so I gave the general view of the industry and trends while he gave the most current perspective. He is getting ready to publish his first book, a cookbook which is a challenge, within the next week or so. While preparing our presentation we talked about our other books that are in progress. He, too, is working on a sci-fi novel and possible series that has some of the same explorations as mine, but from a different perspective. Taking inspiration from Larry Niven and others, it’s possible to have more than one writer write within the same realm, just like Star Wars and Star Trek.

As a society, we have entered an unexpected world. Authoritarianism is rising. Environmental upsets are happening faster than most expected. Financial systems are potentially destabilizing with inequalties and cryptocurrencies. The pundits and the politicians may not be the ones to listen to for ways to affect change and adapt. It may be the novelists, the dreamers, and the ideological explorers who don’t constrain their message to a three minute news clip, a two hour movie, or even a tweet. This may be the time to read about the future and its possibilities to decide what to do on a personal and sometimes financial level.

 

PS If you’re interested in our presentation, we’re happy to give it again. In the meantime, here’s a video of the first hour. We livestreamed it to YouTube, a combination of technologies that would’ve seemed magical thirty years ago.

Now, it’s time for me to get back to binge-watching Stargate SG-1. I’ve almost memorized Firefly, and look forward to binge-watching Babylon 5, someday. It’s all good.

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Too Weird Not To Share

Posted on October 5, 2018 by Tom Trimbath

This has been a day that’s been happening faster than tweets, and I know that because I couldn’t even finish the first one before things started to happen.

Friday. Nothing on the schedule. It’s been a busy week and a while since I had a day with nothing to do, but there was a lull between events that require responses on Saturday, possibly Sunday, Monday, and definitely Tuesday. The rains are back. I settled in with a cup from a pot of a home-mixed herbal infusion (what some folks would call tea) of nettles, mint, lemon balm, chamomile, and honeybush. That’s a tea that likes to steep for an hour, but I usually stop it early to keep it warm in a thermos. Laptop open. Tea beside me. Emails checked. Begin a tweet, which I can’t complete.

 

I hear slow footsteps on the deck. The door bell rings. Instead of a ding-dong, mine usually goes one bing, one bing only. This time it goes dingngngngngngngn. My neighbor accidentally jammed my door bell, but was so upset about locking themself out of their house that they didn’t notice the constant tone. Free the buzzer and go help a friend. Pardon the discretion, but all I can say is that it was more than opening a door. This time it was easy. Their door was actually open, but they were trying to unlock an unlocked door with their car’s key fob. At least it was easy to get them out of the rain. Various elderly people live in my neighborhood; so, a local senior protective services organization appreciates hearing about repeated memory lapses, so I make a few phone calls. (The story is more involved, but discretion is involved.)

Settle in to complete the tweet, and find an email that may massively disrupt a contract between two people I am working with. Emails and phone calls begin flying out into a rapidly expanding network. While finally on the phone resolving a key and fortunately enabling possibility, the UPS truck drives up. I didn’t order anything. I rarely order anything. Just check back to one of my prior posts (Frugality Computers Twitter). No time to investigate. Accept the package and continue the call.

Get done with that call, and a subsequent few others, and get interrupted by a call from the office of my friendly naturopath. They’ve instituted an innovative health care model that I was happy to be one of the first subscribers to, but evidently I forgot to click a button on the online form, or something. I’ll blog about that later, but first…

Remember to deal with the emergency services person who called about the elderly person who got locked out of their house. Evidently, I should expect a clarification call from a social worker or a deputy sheriff or both.

Meanwhile, I’m fielding emails and private messages about Tuesday’s talk at the Langley Library. A friend and I are giving a talk on self-publishing, and there are logistics and details to work out.

Self publishing 2018

Finally, weary from a complete change from my original plan of quietly sitting for the morning, I decide to counter my naturopath’s advice by having pizza (gluten-free) and beer (Guinness is good for you, they say) for lunch. Pre-heat the oven and find a knife to open the very large box that has the right address, name, and nothing to tell me why it arrived.

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I can tell it’s from Lands End, so that’s good. Did I accidentally order something? Click a button without realizing or remembering it? Inside the brown box was a cheerful Christmas-themed, gift-wrapped surprise. My previous fascinating failed shopping experience that was resolved by Lands End resulted in a few tweets and that blog post I mentioned. Along the way I mentioned that the purchase was for new clothes for my new career as a real estate broker. You’re welcome to speculate on Lands End’s motivations, but I was surprised, pleased, and definitely in need of such a gift. They sent me a new briefcase and polo shirt, and a sweet card. You know how uncommon that is, especially from someone who will probably never meet me. Thank you, you sweet people that make up a company that listens, and responds.

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Lunch is over. The emails and phone calls have quieted. My neighbor should be warm and dry. The large disagreement has greatly benefited from the wisdom of experienced advisors, and a two or three day delay. There are details to resolve with my health care system, as well as those logistics for Tuesday’s talk. My beer mug is almost empty (I don’t gulp) and I’ll soon switch back to that nettle tea. Maybe I can find some of that quiet time this afternoon.

Life laughs at plans. A few hours of turmoil are followed by several hours of peace. Along the way there are unexpected gifts, whether they come in boxes, or advice, or in helping someone get something done. My plans didn’t include any of that. For now, I plan to publish this post, click on a few social media notifications, try on a new shirt, and wonder what’s next. Oh yeah, and have a cup of tea. (By the way, thanks for the suggestion that I somehow brand, trademark, or copyright #TomTea, but I think I’ll let the hashtag suffice, for now. And, I’ll definitely continue to tweet about things that happen in real life. Really.)

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Wither Geron

Posted on October 2, 2018 by Tom Trimbath

I’m glad I waited, well, procrastinated before writing this post. One of my long-term investments finally had significant news. Oops. But is it oops forever, or just for a while? Forever is an interesting concept for a company that has, or had, the grand goal of dramatically increasing human lifespans. Where will it (the technology, the company, and the stock) go next?

Screenshot 2018-10-02 at 13.30.37

Take a look at today’s chart. Up over 9%? That’s great! That’s better than most markets average in a year. So why am I not doing the happy dance? Look back a week.

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Last week the stock dropped over 60% in one day, and continued to fall. If only I’d get past my distrust of stop loss orders that arose while invested in a different biotech, Dendreon (DNDN). Oh well, there sits a bit of my IRA, down to under $2 a share. Biotechs need partners. They need friends, too, but the best they usually get are partners. Geron had one partner that was helping with the less technological aspects of a new treatment for blood disorders. If the clinical trials were successful, they’d provide a treatment for an unmet need, as well as prove a technology that could also fight cancer. A true cancer vaccine could be incredibly valuable.

Unfortunately, Geron’s partner decided to back out. Down goes the stock. At one point in that dreadful day, I saw the ticker show a more than 80% drop. So much for sleeping in that day. A personal oops. Researching corporations can be difficult. Researching high technology is also difficult. Make that a bio-tech company and don’t be surprised that the news releases are exceedingly poor at releasing useful news. Regardless, someone was able to wade through the combination of corporate-speak, tech-jargon, and medical-cautions to read it as bad news.

Screenshot 2018-10-02 at 13.31.36

In March of 2018, the stock spiked over 60% in under 90 minutes. Biotechs languish for a long time, then spike or crash within minutes before establishing a trend. That spike retreated, but the stock trended up rising from a low of $1.50 to almost $7 within a year. A very nice return. And, a reference point that puts the current price in perspective. After last week’s drop and today’s rise, the stock sits at $1.71, a more than 10% raise in less than a year.

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Look back a little further. Over the last five years, GERN has gone through several spikes and drops. None were as severe as the recent action, but they’re all reminiscent of their previous events. Biotechs bounce. Until they finally begin making money and reporting it, they are great unknowns swung by hopes and fears more than by financial reports.

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Go back further to when I bought the stock in 1999. As I wrote after March’s pop (GERN Spikes I Buy AST);

“That was in 1999. Within three months the stock went from $14 to over $71. I felt brilliant… “

I also noted;

“My wait has been long. GERN is the only stock I bought as a tip from a friend.”

I recall buying GERN back then, almost twenty years ago when I was just entering middle age, with the thought and intent that if they ever succeeded at dramatically increasing human lifespans, the treatment may be so valuable that the stock would be equally valuable, and that the only way to afford the treatment might be from wealth gained by owning the stock.

Today, my holdings aren’t enough to pay for a crown for a cracked tooth.

Technologies advance most from revolution instead of evolution. There are connections but the major advances are from big leaps like the switch from slide rules to mainframes to personal computers to smartphones; like the switch from casting out demons to casting out germs to only casting out the bad germs. Geron’s technology represents such a leap, but at this point it only represents it; it hasn’t implemented it.

I invest in such advances because I want civilization to advance, and because such investments were successful for me until my Triple Whammy. Whether they succeed again is only something to evaluate later, hopefully in my lifetime. Investing in such companies is possible because of the economic system in place in the US, because such companies are too risky for many investors which means they are more affordable for people like me, and because it is easier to find them now that we’ve created the revolutionary technology that is the Internet.

That does not mean such a strategy is guaranteed. It’s not guaranteed. There are no certainties in investing, regardless of what the brochures say. I’m a data geek. I’d welcome a meta-survey of the probability of success and expected range of ROIs (Return On Investment) of the various strategies. That’s something I’d like to fund if I won the MegaMillions lottery jackpot – but then, I wouldn’t need the results because I wouldn’t need to invest. Others would benefit, and my curiosity would be entertained.

I’ll continue to hold my remaining GERN shares. As I mentioned above, I bought some after being inspired by a friend, added to them as my portfolio grew, and then shaved off some as necessary after that Triple Whammy. I’m back to my original number of shares, and managed to actually make a profit. The power of those remaining shares has been diluted significantly, and so has their potential as Geron sold off most of their technologies.

While I could’ve played the game with stop loss orders and immediate responses, that would be counter to my philosophy of Long Term Buy and Hold. LTBH misses the swings but also minimizes the maintenance costs of investing in individual stocks. I want my money to make money for me, but I also don’t want to spend all of my time trying to make that happen. Time is more valuable than money, and I feel its loss just as much.

As for Geron’s other technologies, I’m lucky enough to have just as many shares in one of the recipient companies, Asterias (AST), which is making nice progress towards regrowing damaged nerves, another life-extending technology.

As for the MegaMillions lottery, today’s crazy financial world now puts that jackpot ($367M) above GERN’s market cap ($314M). Buy the treatment? Bah! Buy the company (but not really because the cash payout is “only” $214M.)

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Frugality Computers Twitter

Posted on September 25, 2018 by Tom Trimbath

Frustrated with tech? Wondering about how to save money? Frugality, computers, Twitter, and my wardrobe collided a few days ago. Fortunately, instead of surviving that and just getting a T-shirt, I expect to receive a polo shirt and a turtleneck. It all started with a hole.

Pardon me while I pause to let Twitter load.

Ah, there it is. It takes a while for Twitter to load. That’s not Twitter’s fault. One of the things I like about Twitter is that it is the simplest social media site I use. Any sluggishness probably comes from my frugality.

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it, and definitely don’t throw it away. My MacBook is about ten years old – and still running. Sure, the hard drive’s been replaced. So has the battery during that old fiasco when Macs were catching fire. And, yeah, the DVD drive (yes, it still has one) sometimes has memory issues like not waking up to acknowledge its existence, but it still runs, eventually. Its speed hasn’t changed. Chips don’t slow down. Software, however, continues to bloat. Apple has upgraded operating systems beyond the capacity of my Mac, or at least what I am willing to risk subjecting it to. The browser is the bigger problem.

When this Mac was young, Amazon was still being laughed at for not making any money. Facebook? Facebook? What’s a Facebook? My computer ran well, was my main tool for writing several books, and has managed my life every day that I’ve been home, even the days without power thanks to the battery.

Now, we ask and expect much. Our expectations have raised and software developers have built the path and helped us move along. That also means bigger programs and more CPU cycles. That’s okay for most people who regularly upgrade their hardware, but I’m the frugal sort. Don’t spend it if you don’t need it.

My business disagreed. About five years ago I bought one of the new brand of computers, a Chromebook, a laptop that owes allegiance to the Internet. The basic design assumes everything is going to be uploads and downloads, probably with little or nothing actually being stored on the laptop. It was cheap, light, had a longer battery life, and was basically expendable – at least compared to typical laptops. Drop my Mac and lose major parts of my life. Drop my Chromebook, or have something break, and… About a year ago that happened and I was back and working in under 3 hours for less than $300.

Unfortunately, modern corporations don’t design for frugal people.

I’m wearing slightly nicer clothes now that I am a real estate broker. The shorts are in storage, unless I’m dancing. It’s a pair of jeans with polo shirts or turtlenecks depending on the weather. (Skip the suit. That’s for the mainland.) Everyday wear wore down clothes I owned for years, maybe decades. One of my co-listings sold, which meant I could replace some of the shirts with something without holes – except for the expected ones for my neck, arms, and torso. It’s time to shop!

Skip the mall. Thanks to the ferry, driving to the mall and back could cost more than the clothes. I tried shopping on the south part of the island, but couldn’t find a simple polo shirt and turtleneck. Surely, online stores would fill my simple needs. Comparison shopping is so easy. Log into EddieBauer.com, LandsEnd.com, and LLBean.com and search on each for two items: a short sleeve polo shirt without a pocket and a straightforward turtleneck, tall, large, and basic black for this trip. Lowest price wins. Except that all three failed. Whether it was my Mac, the operating system, the browser, or the full moon, I wasn’t able to find and add those two items to my shopping cart. Bizarre. Frugality was keeping me from saving money.

I vented. Venting to a friend relieves a lot of tension. Venting on Facebook can corral a chorus of support – with hecklers.Venting on Twitter is different. I’ve done it before, and it’s effective. I didn’t want to start three online chats, one for each company, but one tweet let me tell all three at least something about my experience.

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I chose those three companies because I’ve liked their style and support over the decades. But, phone calls, emails, and online chats are sometimes replaced with “Search our Knowledge Base”, and most queries are easy to ignore because they are effectively private. Venting to a friend only helps emotionally, with a small chance they’ll find a solution. The same for Facebook, but the size of the audience means more possibilities. Describing my experience on Twitter has a different effect. It’s public. It may get ignored, but responsive companies know to manage their reputations they must manage such issues, and managing them successfully publicly is a bonus. A short while later I received a Notification. One of them responded.

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My task had shrunk from dealing with three companies to dealing with one. Buying clothes isn’t my top priority. There were consulting clients to consult with and real estate clients to help buy or sell houses. The next day, on a different computer, with a different operating system and browser I was successful. It shouldn’t be a surprise that the company that got the sale was the one that responded to my call. Nicely done, Lands End.

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I’m lucky. My business doesn’t require high-end computing, at least relative to today’s standards. Any of my machines are magical compared to the punch cards I used in college. My old MacBook runs Adobe Photo Elements, not even Photoshop, and that’s okay. I hire out the tough stuff. Most business needs can be addressed online, except for one pesky corporate learning module that I had to access for seven weeks. Chromebooks are maturing thanks to the immature environment of elementary schools. The laptops are being designed to survive fifth-graders. I can be a klutz, but that’s a standard I can benefit from. I also recently received someone’s “old” PC that even runs Windows 10. Three kinds of computers means three opportunities to find a solution.

Frugality is respecting resources, whether that’s money, time, community, or the planet. It isn’t just being cheap. Respecting the different tools available helps. Acknowledging the benefits and limitations of social media expands the use of the tools. Appreciating a company that actually listens (and had some good sales) means getting more done. It is easy to laugh and smirk at things that cost little or nothing, or come with a few strings attached; but look at what they can do when they all work together. If nothing else, they might just update my wardrobe just a bit.

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US Constitution Day 2018

Posted on September 17, 2018 by Tom Trimbath

We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.

Can you imagine such a document being written and ratified today? It was created 231 years ago and wasn’t ratified until several months later, June 21, 1788. I mention the US Constitution here, on a personal finance blog, because what happened back then affects where we are now and is a reminder of where we may be headed.

Today’s times are tough, existentially tough, but the times were tougher then. The creators of the Constitution couldn’t nuke humanity into extinction, but it was easy to imagine the country dissolving and disappearing. It was a grand experiment that was massively disruptive. Great Recession? Ha! Try tossing out a system based on royalty, a stable currency, and everyone’s livelihoods (something far more precious than careers, jobs, or gigs) and replacing it with a completely new system. It must have been like switching to Bitcoin while relying on some new dotcom and retraining major portions of the populace. And they did it. And it wasn’t easy.

One thing that made it easier was a common enemy, and even that wasn’t unanimous. There were factions for and against, each probably seeing the other as an internal threat. And yet, they fought to find common ground from which to fight a common enemy. That’s the same and different now.

A hundred years ago, there were the Central Powers in The War to End All Wars. After 1929, the common threat was poverty and hunger. The Axis (Nazi Germany and Japan) pulled the Allies together again in WWII. For much of the remainder of the century, the enemy was the only other country that could truly contest the country, the Soviet Union.

Then, the Berlin Wall fell. With the US left standing alone, it was if we lost our purpose. Partisan politics has always been the norm, but the data shows it accelerating. 9/11 rallied folks for a while, but an amorphous enemy is harder to target. Instead, a pervasive threat was met with pervasive, and frequently inappropriate, paranoia.

We’re not the only ones. Look around at a world of dysfunctional governments. It’s almost as if we’re searching for something but we don’t know what. Meanwhile, systemic threats like climate change and injustice continue.

The US Constitution was a compromise, and a wise one. The country’s motto is e plu·ri·bus u·num – out of many, one. The founding document acknowledged the many and the benefit to being one.

“the Constitution which we now present is the result of a spirit of amity, and of that mutual deference and concession, which the peculiarity of our political situation rendered indispensable.”

That it will meet the full and entire approbation of every State is not, perhaps, to be expected; but each will, doubtless, consider, that had her interest alone been consulted, the consequences might have been particularly disagreeable or injurious to others; that it is liable to as few exceptions as could reasonably have been expected, we hope and believe”

They made sure it could be changed, because they knew it’s impossible to be perfect.

“The Congress, whenever two thirds of both Houses shall deem it necessary, shall propose Amendments to this Constitution”

A few things that seem to be neglected or changed elsewhere:

  • To raise and support Armies, but no Appropriation of Money to that Use shall be for a longer Term than two Years; (Two years? I can think of a few wars that we’ve continued far past that.)
  • No State shall enter into any Treaty, Alliance, or Confederation; grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal; coin Money; emit Bills of Credit; make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts… (So much for gold and silver. Imagine how many investors were upset when their existing contracts were changed, or later when we abandoned the gold standard.)
  • And then there’s the famous takeback;
    • the exportation thereof from the United States and all territory subject to the jurisdiction thereof for beverage purposes is hereby prohibited.
    • The eighteenth article of amendment to the Constitution of the United States is hereby repealed

Considering some of the debates that have lasted for decades, there’s probably opportunity for more changes. I can think of one that would benefit from a bit of clarification, editing, wordsmithing, and basically. Of course, if we did that social media traffic would crater.

“A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.”

They probably thought it was perfectly clear at the time. At the time, and at the same time knew that something in the document would need correction.

And, let’s recall the bizarre concept that is the Electoral College.

By the way, impeachment is mentioned six times, as well as several phrases that resurface in the news;

“he shall not receive within that Period any other Emolument from the United States, or any of them.”

Evidently, they expected someone to try to benefit from the office.

By the way, the US Constitution uses He so often that I wonder if it would have to be rewritten to apply to a She. Or do She(s) get a free pass?

Personal finance models are built on conventions. Plans assume the future will be like the past, maybe with some tweaks to interest and inflation rates. History is ready to remind us other pieces of conventional wisdom: the only constant is change; and if even if you think you see it coming, it will look different when it arrives.

Without a common enemy, divisiveness may continue to grow. Currently, that’s meaning greater income and wealth inequality, a similar bifurcation in housing and health, and ideological differences that are being amplified for the consolidation of power and profit, not for furthering the maturity of the country. If the US is no longer seen as an us but as a collection of thems it is no longer united.

I expect something will happen. Moderating forces are losing energy. Social, financial, environmental, and technical changes have unstoppable momentum. I continue to pay my mortgage, strive for a sustainable income, and try to prolong life by living healthily; but I’m also aware that complete systemic changes have happened before, and could happen again thanks to the speed of communication. If we all recognized a common enemy, that could help; but that seems like a reflexive response, not a mature one. Maybe we need a nice alien to show up, or a global awareness of how to make life sustainable here, or something else that I can’t imagine, yet. How about an awareness of common consciousness?

A few hundred years ago, a small portion of the world’s population saw a problem, took the risk, found a new way, and pursued it despite internal dissension and external reactions. They changed the world. We may be ready for a change again. And in that case, I suspect my 40 year mortgage may be more than a bit moot.

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Escape To Reality

Posted on September 8, 2018 by Tom Trimbath

Yesterday I returned from a couple of days in reality. Really, it was three days and two nights, but only from 9AM on Wednesday until 5PM on Friday. Nah. That was how long I was away from work and home. From 6PM on Wednesday until 6AM on Friday I was at a lake in the mountains purposely cut off from most of civilization. Ah. I needed that, a re-introduction to reality – and ibuprofen.

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a long windy road followed by a long windy trail

Okay, ibuprofen is civilization, just like the trail built by the National Park Service, the facilities they installed there, the road that got me to the trailhead, the gear I wore and carried in my backpack, and the infrastructure that got me there, including my truck. It was a long way to go to get past the more persistent and pernicious parts of the modern world. It was worth it.

BarclayforDrewIf you want to read about what it’s like to hike into wilderness there are plenty of books in the library. I wrote three of them. Become one of the rare individuals on the planet by buying one and reading it. You won’t be one in a billion, but you’ll be rarer than one in a million.

For decades, I hiked and backpacked for the exercise and because I enjoy climbing mountains. Nature was a special playground and an opportunity to relax and return to basics. This time was different.

My goals were echoes of those previous trips, and were the excuse I gave to get away. The reason was to get away, and that’s a good way to do it.

As I said in one of those books (probably the one about Barclay Lake), some people go to the hills to get away from their world as it is, others go there to enjoy the world as it was. The reason for this trip was getting away by returning to a place that is as real as I could reasonably reach in a narrow window of my life.

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Look at those feet pointing out at the lake. Sit by a lake and don’t worry about the tide forcing you to move. Settle in and watch the fish make ripples or the breeze make ruffles. It was Grand Lake in Olympic National Park, a site that’s limited to seven campsites but only had two other people at it. It would be easy to say that the steep climb down kept people out (the trail is flipped and starts high on a ridge and leads down into the valley), but every campsite at the next lake up was filled. I almost had the place to myself. (My trail report is online, in case you want some of those details.)

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Such a trip creates memories, tests physical fitness, and reinforces minimalism and frugality. This trip taught me things that won’t show up in photos.

There’s a bit of a rush getting to a campsite, especially when a backpacker arrives at dusk. It’s almost like an exercise in Maslow’s heirarchy of needs, backpacker style. Find a place to set up the tent. Set up shelter first as a protection against weather, which can shift suddenly, and as a place to store all the stuff that was stuffed into the backpack. Get water. Don’t expect a faucet. Expect to find a stream or lake to pump and filter from. Work for your water. Depending on the local critters, protect that food. If they’re aggressive enough, skip the water and go hang the food out of their reach. If you’ve got to go, go, as in finding a facility for the sanitary disposal of your internal waste. Grand Lake has a double luxury, composting toilets and a bear wire. Very nice. It is only after those basics are covered that it’s time to do things like eating, changing clothes, and arranging the gear around the camp and in the tent.

Your experiences will vary. Some photographers will immediately take photos if the light is right. They’ll do the rest in the dark, if necessary. Fisherfolk won’t just watch those ripples. Ultra-minimalists may have so little to do that they begin exploring because they are so unburdened. Whatever. I know what works for me.

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What really worked for me was what worked on me. I arrived as the sunshine left the lake. I knew my main activities after setting up would be eating, imbibing (a bit), and making a comfy place to alternately read a book and watch the world. The surprise didn’t arrive until the next morning.

I purposely didn’t have a watch, well, purposely because they all need work. Sometime mid-morning I was looking at the lake and realized how little I had to do to get through the rest of the day. First revelation: my life has become hectic enough that I think of days as something to get through. Second revelation: most of what I spend my time on is speculative, based on hope. At least for now, there’s an enormous gap between meeting my bare needs and meeting my needs in modern society. Until my work is sufficiently compensated, my desires are only for consideration when buying lottery tickets.

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I relaxed. In that moment, the muscles in my forehead and jaw noticeably relaxed. I became aware of how tight my body has been, not just from the prior evening’s shaky leg descent into the valley, but from the long hours typical of people in the Gig Economy trying to build and sustain a business. My sore quadriceps basically enforced the notion that I should sit around, nap, and read for the day. It was glorious.

The fish weren’t as entertaining as the fawn. Evidently, no one had convinced it that it wasn’t a dog. The little speckled deer bounced around the lakeside meadow for no apparent reason. Then, it would nibble for a bit, then dash off as if it was chasing something, and then dash back. The doe watched, ate, and let the kid play. Thank you, natural role models.

The day took forever. My throttle is set so high that I kept thinking there was something to do; but a nap and a snack later and the Sun hadn’t move much. Nap, snack, repeat and marvel at the wealth of time I lived within. At work, days go by in an unfulfilled rush. In nature, time lingers and saunters on by. Forget the ads, that’s still the greatest luxury, the ability and opportunity to be still.

So many people, whether jokingly or seriously, made sure I knew all the ways the trip could go bad. No need to tell me, I’ve helped call in a helicopter to recover a body, and I’ve carried out an injured person’s backpack. Their help, however, set a tone I had a tough time quieting. I’ve enjoyed climbing, but my shaky legs worried me, the first approaching storm of the season did the same, and I was already anticipating the rattly drive out that rattled me on the way in. Anxiety returned before dawn.

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I’ll save you the internal struggle and skip straight to the angels. My plan was to climb slowly, taking all day if necessary. I was taking one of my breaks when I saw a couple coming up from below, slowly and steadily. I’m almost sixty. They were in their seventies. We chatted for a bit, as hikers will, and they let me fall in behind them. Their simple attitude, not feeding my anxieties and not trivializing them either, released much of the tension in my body (or my mind, more likely.) Without knowing they were doing it, they pulled me up the mountain. Simple things, simply said can be more powerful than energetic pleas. I bow to them.

My anxieties haven’t gone away because my situation hasn’t gone away. The truck shook during the trip out (where shaking was expected) as well as when it got onto pavement (where shaking is not expected.) I took advantage of Les Schwab’s offer to check out vehicles. They nicely confirmed that any persistent rattling was in me, not the truck. That helped me get home a lot easier.

Nature is reality. We are distanced from it and are mostly fighting battles that we create either personally or societally. The rains are back, and are welcome; so I don’t know if I’ll manage another hike or two this year. I certainly hope so. Nature is one of the best medicines I know, in addition to good friends and good luck. Let’s see if I can go for a walk tomorrow without having to rely on the ibuprofen, though.

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Unboxing A Cheap Roku

Posted on September 3, 2018 by Tom Trimbath

DSCN1374Cheap isn’t bad. Sometimes cheap can be just right. If you want a fancier word, let’s use frugal, which is another word I like. After almost eight years with my original Roku, I felt forced into a change. That’s not Roku’s fault, or even Netflix’s, though they did encourage it. Tonight I begin the test of whether I say goodbye to Netflix, or find out that Roku’s new device saves my subscription to that new version of that old service. Step one, explain how I and the new device got here.

Thank you, Netflix. When I got rid of DirecTV in December 2010 I dove into Roku’s offerings. They had hundreds of channels, many of which were free, and many of those were free for good reasons. Just because it’s free doesn’t mean it’s entertaining. And yet, Netflix was more than enough. It got me through lots of evenings when I needed a distraction. Binge watching as a mental salve in tough times. Goodbye to DirecTV’s monthly fees and hello to a one-time purchase and Netflix’s monthly subscription at one-tenth the price.

Eight years is a long time. I watched a lot of shows and movies. Netflix grew and matured. As children will do, it grew and matured in unexpected ways. Deep documentaries and old movies faded while superficial sensationalism and new Netflix content rose. The Netflix menu drove me towards “because you watched …” rather than letting me pick from specific genres or an easily reviewed list of new movies. Netflix content got big icons. Classic movies shrunk in comparison. My List reduced, reduced, and reduced to a few feeble picks with fewer occasional gems. I left DirecTV because of costs and obnoxious ads. I decided to check Netflix’s competition for fresh titles and old comforts.

While visiting a friend who had a new Roku, I browsed Amazon Prime, HULU, and several other channels. YouTube on my TV (really just a large monitor)? Yes! Finally, places that had Babylon 5 and Stargate SG-1! That’s enough to draw me in. Go home, click around on my old Roku, and get an interesting message. Basically, “You’re equipment is so old it doesn’t work with the new services.” I recall Roku claiming that services were initially available for my old Roku would continue to work. So much for either my recollection or their claim. At least they had a cheap solution. For about $20 they’d send me a new heavily-discounted Roku. (And of course took the opportunity to try upselling me. Ha!)

At that price I ordered one and waited. Slow snail mail is fine by me.

Today the box arrived. On Labor Day. So much for federal holidays when it comes to important things like watching old TV shows.

The unboxing begins. (Disclosure: Typically, I’ll take photos as I mix unboxing and chronicling, but I wanted to take the photos in natural light, so there was a quick photo session as the Sun set.)

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The box is only slightly larger than the old device. Inside, an even smaller device in an innovative series of trays that hold micro-electronics that would be science fiction thirty years ago. Open and unwrap and find most of the volume is reserved for cables. The actual electronics boxes are smaller than some in-line transformers that shove other cables aside on power strips. The connectors probably pick the size of the unit. Power in. Internet in. Video and audio out. Add a remote. There’s even room for a couple of batteries included.

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Earlier I described the unit to some friends as Ethernet in the back, HDMI out the front, and point the remote at the built-in receiver. Evidently, that’s one of the other units (maybe). Mine looks like a thumb-sized black box with some connectors on the back. Let’s see if this is as simple as it looks. Instruction manuals? Bah. At a guess, rummage through the available cords. Here’s a micro-USB port and a micro-USB cable. Port meet cable. The other end of the cable is a USB connector, and the thing with a two-prong plug has a USB port. Connect. Connect. The back of the thumb-sized box only has two other ports: an HDMI, and an old-fashioned A/V Out.

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Before connecting anything or plugging anything in I checked the back of my monitor. Gasp. Grimace. How could it not have an HDMI port? Oh. It’s that old or I’m that cheap or both. Whew. At least the A/V Out port is familiar and there’s a cable with the right pin and a three-color connector. OK. Let’s try this.

Begin plugging cords into power strips and immediately lose track of what goes where. Chase out some dust bunnies that have gone grey. Realize that there’s no Ethernet port, no way to directly connect to the Internet router sitting right beside it. I’m guessing wi-fi is required, in which case I’m going to grab my router’s password before proceeding.

OK. Put batteries into the remote. Turn on the monitor. And wonder why I’m looking at a blue screen. Ta da! “Let’s get started>” (My monitor is so old that turning it on or off changes the input source. Old switches get forgetful, I guess.)

Distance glasses on (but perched on the end of my nose as I type.)

English = OK

Looking for wireless networks. Three found even though only one is mine and my house is basically surrounded by empty lots.

Enter password. Try to figure out a keyboard that is operated by remote cursor directions. Squint, even with glasses, to read the tiny type.

“Update available” Looks encouraging. OK. Because there’s no other choice. Less than three minutes to update. Automatic restart, with some odd audio cues. Check display setting because the icon looks like it should be circular but looks elliptical.

Activate your Roku – which involves remembering old passwords and entering codes on a handy computer. Have a computer handy.

Terms and Conditions – check. Oops. Actually click Check, not just OK.

Get logged out for “security reasons”?

Log back in without a problem.

The Roku screen on my “TV” says it will “update once you’re done” but the Roku screen on my computer isn’t telling me what to do. Maybe I have to “Link a device”.

Select the room the device is located in. That’s personal. Oh well, Living Room.

Oh, those pesky Check boxes are so subtle I can’t tell they’re there until I get the error message.

Now starts the sales pitch for other channels.

HULU is already checked. I don’t see YouTube or Netflix. Oops. Accidentally hit the Next button and magically the TV changes.

Another opportunity to sign in or sign up and I’ll pass hoping I can do that later.

“You’re done!” except the TV is updating 35 channels. Patience, couch potato. Ironically, one of the channels being updated in DirecTV. Nope. Not going to do it.

“All done> ” says the TV.

I’ll hit OK and see what happens.

Looks encouraging. I see Netflix, HULU, Pandora, Newscaster, and a couple dozen others. Rats. No YouTube. I’ll rummage around for that later. First. Netflix because that worked yesterday on the old machine.

Got to sign in. Guessing at usernames and passwords, a modern parlor game.

Interesting. The other screen used an ABC keyboard. This one uses QWERTY. Hello, Roku. Do your various departments actually talk to each other? You realize QWERTY is based on typing, not moving cursors around? Only took two tries.

Upgrade to HD? Not if I have to pay for it, which they require. No Thanks.

Success!

Now, I’m part of the 2018 Netflix with its auto-play, accelerated binge-watching that doesn’t leave time to breathe  between shows (popcorn has to be made sometime, but first I have to rush to stop the next show, or start one just to hit pause.)

I’ll check into HULU, later (which is really hulu but I don’t want to confuse the movies with the ritual dance.)

One significant and trivial upside is the new remote. The old one was wearing out. Too much scrolling in search past too many lesser run movies that probably each have their fans, but not enough appeal for me.

After I establish a HULU account and indulge in some of that familiar sci-fi, I’ll dive into the real draw, YouTube. Deep documentaries? What’s deeper than direct feeds from NASA and university labs? Classic shows? Maybe not as much, but the unfiltered creativity on YouTube is greater than my capacity to see it all.

Is this all worth it? Come on. Twenty dollars and an evening or two of exploration. I’ll probably save that much time by spending less time searching for good content. As for the $20; it’s nice to be able to spend so little to get so much – something I put off doing last year.

Now, even if you won’t excuse me, I have to exploring to do – after I add photos and publish this post. I sense popcorn in my very near future.

PS I just noticed that YouTube’s icon is on the cover. I hope I can find it in the machine.

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Gig Changes August 2018

Posted on August 27, 2018 by Tom Trimbath

Photo on 2017-06-23 at 17.34The only constant is change. As of September 1st, my list of gigs will shift by one. The total will stay the same; but, thanks to what’s happening in a few of my other gigs, my title at the museum (History of Computing in Learning and Education Virtual Museum) will shift from Project Manager to Management Consultant. That old adage about doors and windows opening and closing is simple but misses the reality. Doors and windows can be more than just open or closed. They can also be left ajar.

Rarely does it make sense to go cold turkey or burn your bridges or burn your cold turkey. I followed that advice when I left my aerospace engineering career. The logic was logical. If you’ve experiencing a major life shift, leave the old life behind. It is too easy to identify with that past job, title, role, or persona. You’re you, not your job. I retired (evidently temporarily) at 38 (hence my friends encouraging me to write the book on personal finance that is the basis for this blog, Dream. Invest. Live.) Dream Invest Live coverI dutifully switched to a completely different passion, teaching karate. Yeah. That’s a switch.

Looking back, it is obvious that maintaining at least some consulting work would’ve been a great backup idea. I’ve been a fan of commercial space since college, oh so many decades ago, and actually got to work in it. Following conventional wisdom meant missing out on the resurgence that is Blue Origins, SpaceX, Virgin Galactic, and others. But, the logic was sound – as long as the assumptions remained valid. Be careful with those.

The assumption was that a large diversified portfolio, a frugal lifestyle, and an open-minded approach would be enough to sustain a retirement. Alas, my Triple Whammy, my personal perfect storm of bad luck, undermined the monetary position turning a large diversified portfolio into something based more on hope and good luck than a credible investing strategy. That assumption took about a decade to fail, too long to re-establish an engineering career; hence, days with nine different money-making attempts that have yet to mature into a confidently sustainable income. Come on lottery.

One of my key gigs for the last six years has been the museum. One thing I enjoy about the Gig Economy is the opportunity to learn, and also to learn that many of my skills apply to more than one job. Management, planning, communications, and strategizing are useful in most ventures. With the museum I also discovered an appreciation for the thousands of librarian, archivists, conservators (sorry if I got that exact title wrong), all of the people who unearth, preserve, and present history. Many are professionals. Many are volunteers.

This is an amazing time in our civilization. A thousand years ago, very little was recorded. History was written by the winners. A hundred years ago, there were more voices, but the stories were just exiting the period of paintings and text. Within the last ten years, almost every voice can be recorded, written, photographed, and preserved in forms that have the potential to be immortal. In another hundred or thousand years, historians may look back at the pre-PC era as the Dark Ages, regardless of what happened in Medieval Europe.

That gig has been appreciated (and they’d appreciate your support) but it wasn’t enough so it wasn’t alone. I’ve been learning similar depths in writing, photography, consulting, entrepreneurship, social innovations, while taking a roller coaster ride through America’s wealth classes.

Thanks to writing about real estate, and the encouragement of friends, my career as a real estate broker is getting busy enough to warrant finding more time for it. Living on Whidbey Island as the place is being “discovered” (yet again) helps. Fortunately, I enjoy people, helping them, and helping my community. As stint at writing a historical documentary about the south half of the island also means a fun background for understanding why houses are where they are, and an appreciation for locals who’ve preserved those stories.

It is too easy for a “career” the Gig Economy to be messy collection of disconnected gigs. Sometimes saying yes to everything still isn’t enough to make enough. My museum work helped, but my other gigs and skills reinforce each other more strongly. A broker benefits from knowing how to manage projects, write about a property, coordinate photos, and work with a diverse group of people. So, more time for the mutually supportive gigs.

The museum continues. It is also changing in ways that benefit from on-site rather than remote help. I’ll continue to consult because I like what they’re doing, and I like to help people complete their projects.

To me, real estate, museum management, encouraging entrepreneurs, and my talks and classes are all about helping people, particularly helping them pursue their ideas, dreams, and sometimes dream homes. Maybe change is the only constant, but at some level some things never change.

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