Investing And Roller Coaster Emotions – LUNR

First, a nap.

Whew. What a 24 hours? What? You don’t know? How would you? Let me walk you through the wild swings of investing in tiny stocks. Today’s stock: LUNR. They got great news. Didn’t they?

Some background: 
LUNR is a company that is literally working out of this world. Their market is the business of exploring and exploiting the moon. Might as well call it exploiting, because that’s what moon mining is. The alternative is exploiting our planet and doing so inefficiently. People want to do stuff on the moon, then use the stuff that’s there rather than here. If we’re going to build a lifeboat for the species, it makes sense for it to be on a different berth. Currently, their tasks are simpler: landing rovers, launching moon satellites, etc. Think of the Earth observation stuff we did fifty years ago. Hopefully, the trading symbol makes sense now, LUNR. The company name doesn’t, Intuitive Machines. I suspect there was reasoning there. I don’t plan to dive into it, yet.

I bought stock in them recently. (https://trimbathcreative.net/?s=LUNR) I am an ex-aerospace engineer, so I have a better chance than many analysts at understanding what they’re doing. Imagine investing in aerospace in 1970. There was pain, but eventually, there was gain.

At the end of most trading days, I log in and look for news. Usually, there’s nothing. Huh? Hey, the stock was up 1.27% after the market closed. Nothing grand, but something must be going on. Huh? It wasn’t up 1.27%. It was up $1.27. Check those units. $1.27 on a stock that was trading for under $5 is a big jump. When I checked, LUNR was up over 20%. That’s worth rescheduling a bit of the day.

The gain looked like it was going to happen far sooner than fifty years. (https://www.intuitivemachines.com/post/intuitive-machines-strengthens-lunar-service-capabilities-with-116-9-million-nasa-lunar-contract-aw) LUNR has already successfully completed launches and landings (ignore the part where it fell over), and has been gaining credibility. Thursday afternoon (August 29, 2024), after the market closed, they announced a $116.9M contract with NASA. The most they ever made in a year was about $86M. This is significant. Their market cap was only about $500M. That’s a lot of revenue and a lot of asset growth – before expenses, or course, and before the work’s been done.

Some folks posted about checking every few minutes. It can be a heady time. Enthusiasm is unleashed and with reason. Sometimes, that enthusiasm has been steeping for years. What a relief, especially for those investors. 

I wasn’t as enamoured with the news. The post- and pre- markets are squirrely. They can be indicators, but they can also be simply confused. I checked every few hours, just for good grins.

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Sleep happened in there somewhere, but not enough to keep me from taking that nap.
I woke up with anticipation. How did the pre-market do? Up. Still up. Good. It was holding, with some randomness as people interpreted the news. Big firms like Microsoft may barely budge over $116.9M. Even at that, I suspect a crowd of analysts would dive in to decide whether MSFT should nudge up and by how much. If LUNR had late-night analysts, I can imagine them all fitting into one of the larger booths at Denny’s.

6:30AM. The market opened. The previous price at market close had been $4.82. The price spiked to $6. There was some bobbling of the price, but that is the market doing what the market does, balancing the buys and sells to see what the new value is. Maybe the overshoot should come down to $5.60, or a few hours later $5.20, or by the end of the day’s $4.97. A 3% gain on such significant news. All that adrenaline draining and wasted, at least for some. For me, I’ve seen it before. Good news is good news. Celebrate that. The daily details aren’t as important unless the stock needs to be converted to cash for an emergency.

Google Finance

Why only move up 3%? The deed’s not done. Rockets blow up. Rovers fall over. Landers can land too hard, or not at all. Space is risky business. Even Elon loses rockets.

That puts the stock within a few percent of where it was a year ago.

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The market value of a company can be based on its future revenues discounted by risk. A $116.9M check is worth $116.9M, but work must be done, which is a risk; rockets and such must be launched, orbited, and landed, which are risks; competition happens; disasters at the Earth facilities can happen; budget cuts happen; etc.; etc.; etc. If that check is going to arrive later, then inflation diminishes it. That reduces its present value. The check may be for $116.9M, but its value to the company and its influence on the stock is different. The analysts guess. The investors decide. Reality eventually reveals the truth.

Google Finance

That $116.9M check can also be worth more than $116.9M. The company is getting more business, and significant business. At some point, startups that succeed grow from hopefuls that may have just been lucky, to established businesses with confident revenues and income. It is only in retrospect that a SpaceX has hit its major milestone. Is this LUNR’s? Optimists may say yes. Pessimists may say no, or maybe not yet. Investors get to decide what are the odds, what level of risk are they comfortable with; and balance that against the possibility of gains. Wait too long and the risk may be gone, as well as the stock gains.

Celebrate good news for the news. Tonight’s dinner is ribs roasted at home, homemade cornbread, roasted corn on the cob, and probably some alcoholic beverage. (I bought a ridiculously sized bottle of local whiskey because it was on sale. Now, there’s value!) 

At a deeper level, as an investor, I am relaxing into the decision I made to buy the stock. That extra bit of confidence has a value as well. I didn’t and don’t plan on selling any time soon, so this is like watching a bare root tree prove itself with its first season of blossoms. Time to take a chair and a drink and sit and think as I watch the garden grow.

Congratulations to the people doing the work. Nicely done. I hope you get to celebrate, too.

I also hope I sleep better tonight.

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Intuitive Machine Intuition

OK, intuition, why are you encouraging me to write about this stock, LUNR, on this day, August 23, 2024? I produced a video about it over a year ago. (March 2023 –  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzVaEu7mty0) I bought stock in it. (June 2024) Pardon me as I have an unintentional Duh moment as I realize my intuition was inspiring me to write about Intuitive Machines, a name that has no apparent connection to their products, but there it is. The universe has a sense of humor. The fact that the stock was up over 29% this week is probably more inspirational. So, what’s going on, and how does it affect my personal finances?

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Small companies can have strange stock moves. They can languish for years until someone thinks they’re worth much more or much less than the current market, and a small surge in the stock can become a bigger surge in the stock. I suspect that analysts can’t devote enough time to remain aware of every aspect of every small company. One may do an analysis, and others move because the first one did. Companies like LUNR have finance spikes and shortfalls. Starbucks started by selling lots of cups of coffee, something that happened every few seconds. LUNR is dealing with rockets, satellites, and rovers, the sorts of things that rely on singular events like rocket launches and vehicle landings. Their products can literally go boom or bust, but hopefully go whoosh and land quietly.

None of that happened this week. There’s news of a collaboration. The recent finance report looked fine enough. Eventually, there’ll be another launch and such. And the stock went up as much as it did.

It went up to about $6 and closed at $5.24. It started the week at about $4, so that was good, but keep in mind that when I produced that video, the stock was at over $13, down from their all-time peak (so far) of over $40. Hello, volatility. I bought it for about $5, so this has been a lot of up and down for not much movement, and that’s OK.

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You might notice that, while I track these smaller companies and their stocks I do not get deep into the details. I am Not a finance professional. They get to do that sort of thing. I’ve also learned that whether analyst or amateur, someone somewhere out there knows more than me, and may know more than everyone else. Small companies can have surprising successes that are kept officially quiet, but an investor who lives near the company may notice a busy parking lot on a Sunday, or a lot of rental or government cars, or big deliveries. Some discussion boards (particularly about MVIS) are populated by people who trawl (not troll) through LinkedIn updates and job ads to see what positions are new and who is celebrating their new job. I’ve found that when I get into that much detail I’ve usually missed a more important detail right beside it. I watch the big picture, spend less time, and have about as much success.

Were these financials good enough?
Google Finance

LUNR (lunar, get it?) is potentially rewarding enough that I invested some of my house sale money into it, but it is risky enough that I didn’t max out on the possibilities. I may miss out on the possible upside, but rockets do go boom and bust in seconds.

Most of my other stocks are in similar situations, even though they’re in different industries. Diversification! As a portfolio, it means that something is usually happening. Life ain’t dull.
Life may not be dull, but such swings are normal. I celebrate the gains and recognize the losses, but the real progress is a successful launch and landing; or in biotechs, an FDA approval; or in any of them, a significant customer. LUNR has done enough to gather some attention, but I think few folks barely look past SpaceX, Boeing, Lockheed, or ESA to see the recent independents who are innovating rocket science and space missions. 

Up 29% in a week with no headline news? Imagine what their week will be like when they land on the moon and don’t fall over. What was that peak price? If things go well, the stock can rocket past it, too.

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Fresh Idea – Redone Gas Station

We can file this under my “Fresh Ideas” hashtag. A new(?) idea for old service stations.

Look at that poor pump. Some are old enough that, when gas prices finally rose above a dollar, they had to paint a $1 on it. They never expected prices to go that high. Those of us who are old enough may remember checkbooks where all the checks had a 19__ printed on them because years starting with a 2 were too far in the future to worry about. (My mind digressed as I wondered what we’re using today that will be so obviously outdated soon.)  The checks were easy to replace or write over. The gas pumps are harder to figure out what to do with. Here’s one idea I talked about recently on my podcast with Steve Smolinsky, Intriguing Creativity. Don’t have a name yet. Hmm. Maybe by the time I’m done writing this.

Oh woe, what are we going to do with the old corner gas stations? The ones that were true service stations may be more difficult. EVs are here. Cars require more training for their mechanics than before. Much of those sites’ functionality is outdated and fading. 

I remember working at one of the early self-service stations in 1976. Already, there was no service. Pump it yourself (and save! and then banks automated tellers and supermarkets made us do their job), but don’t expect anyone to check your car’s oil, wash the windshield, or pump up your tires. Service with a smile slid as it shifted to being provided from behind a window that had a slot for passing back cash and change. Credit cards were run through a carbon copy device. $2 bills were in style, for a very short while. We still had the hose that rang a bell whenever a car drove onto the lot. Ding. Ding.

Many have morphed into convenience stores, companies that were inspired by 7-11 and surpassed it, at least in ubiquity.

One that didn’t morph is about four miles from my new old big tiny house (MyTinyExperiment.com). It’s the one with rusted pumps. Like many, it is a corner eye-sore. It is also an opportunity for contemporary photography. What message do you want? Decay and ruin and neglect? Nature creeping through the cracks? Reflections on the history and the people who worked there?

But, it is also a commercial property at the intersection of a rural and soon-to-be less rural area. It is paved. It has a building. It has utilities. It has a story, I’m sure. It also probably has underground gas tanks that may need to be removed, or at least made safe. The pumps could stay or go – at a price. It has potential.

And it is not alone.

(Rhetorically) How many such places have we built around the world? Many are dying because they aren’t needed, or at least didn’t keep up with gas prices. The new one kitty-corner across the street is far fancier, bigger, and even sells liquor. It serves that purpose and more, and yet I think may be destined for a similar fate. But, back to the old, unused one. Finally, I’ll get around to telling you the idea.

(By the way, literary types may moan about this style of writing, but this is a better and cleaned-up example of how my creative side works. You do not want to see the un-cleaned-up example.)

Re-open the place as a community space, for-profit or non-profit, isn’t as important. Clean it up. Make it safe, at least eventually deal with those tanks, and pour the newest technology into it: high-speed internet and caffeinated drinks. Add sugar, as reasonable. Redecorate, of course. As I type this, I wonder if Starbucks has already considered this. If not, who will? 

People are de-urbanizing. Some are becoming modern nomads. I’ve progressively moved farther from Seattle’s metropolis since 1992. For about a decade prior to that, I was a suburbanite because my job was Boeing, not downtown anywhere. Now, I live seven miles outside of a tourist town that has always been undergoing the influx of ex-city folks. As a realtor (now ex-), I worked with a lot of people who wanted to be less crowded. Losing the services of a city has been easier as technology has allowed more remote communication, then shopping, and learning, and working. There are some folks who live out here, but who really live in there, inside their computers. You and I are both here now, just asynchronously. 

These corner stations could fit into the role of supplying some of those extra services, and do so in a way that encourages community, or at least seeing other people in the real world. 

There is more than a spectrum of what these places could be. Starbucks is a good model, though I’d recommend skipping the drive-through. Get out of your car and be a person among people. Maybe put a drive-through coffee kiosk into one of those little booths if there’s enough parking lot for it. (Is that what the service bays could become?) There’s really no need to be specific about how it will be used. Financiers may want details, but people will define the space by the way they use it. Coffeeshop? Co-works? Package pickup site? A quiet place to recharge, or a noisy place where kids can scream? (No, kids. You may not play in the grease pit – but with some work it would be awesome to fill that with bouncy balls – or a koi pond.) The neighborhood will decide.

But there will be work to get done. No surprise. Even without those tanks, renovating a building isn’t trivial. But it is possible. 

The specific site that inspired this idea is across the street from one of my favorite markets, definitely more farmers’ market than supermarket. Down the street is an awesome cidery that has expanded out into a family-friendly event center and foodie destination. A post office is nearby. So is a school. And so is an increasing influx (there’s got to be a better word) of city people spending time in rural areas. (Part of which is in a wildfire as I type. It’s a dynamic place and definitely out in the country against the mountains.) And they all circle a building with dusty windows, weed-cracked concrete, and gas pumps that look more like modern art.

OK. So this is just me playing with an idea. But someone is going to see abandoned service stations as the site for some sort of rebirth. When someone finds an ethical, environmental, and economical way to use one service station, they will have created a template for them to do it again, and for someone else to try, too. 

On the personal finance side, I don’t have the resources or skills to remake such a space. I’ll watch to see if someone else does because, if they do, they have the opportunity to build another billion-dollar business, and I’ll hope I can invest in it.

Change is the only constant. 

These were busy businesses. Now, they are not. Hopefully, they will be again. In the meantime, I also started thinking ahead to what’s happening at the station on the other corner. What will their pumps become? And EV charging? The next generation of batteries may make specialized chargers moot. What will happen to all of those Tesla stations? 

Change is the only constant.

Gotta change with it, and maybe guess right about where it is going.

If you want to hear what Steve thought about the idea, listen to Episode 8 of our podcast, IntriguingCreativity.com .

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Bought More MVIS QBTS

Yep. I bought more stock. But the markets had a terrible week? Rephrase that. Stocks are on sale! So I bought some more, but I also did more research, reflected on history, have painful reminders of catching falling knives, and am glad to buy at discounts. Sounds dull because it is about finance? Trust me. It hasn’t been dull for me. Here’s an update on what, how, and why.

Regular readers know I compile a semi-annual report about my portfolio. (Semi Annual Exercise Mid 2024) This year has been energized because I sold my house, which gave me money, which gave me money that is partly going into the stock market. (Time To Buy But What) Most of the money remains as cash. I’m just not that impulsive.

But I’ve been watching the markets as usual. Even when I am not trading, I watch because it is a real reality show with real consequences. Earlier this week there was news that startled lots of investors. It seemed based on nervousness rather than specific news. The upsets were in the mega-cap stocks like MSFT. My much smaller companies (hey, I own a tiny tiny slice of each – so, mine, mine!) had their stocks affected, but the companies were doing what they’d been doing. That suggest their stocks should too. It doesn’t work that way, of course. Ah, but it was also earnings week for most of them.

News? Not really. Minor disappointments. The perpetuation of hope. Patience continues to be exercised. But their prices changed as skittish investors skittered away because others were skittering away in other companies. Yo. Dudes. Nothing changed, except the price. I bought more.

I did not, however, buy more of everything. At this point conservative investors (not the political kind) may moan about ‘here he goes again’, while more speculative investors may brush off my old style of Long Term Buy and Hold. I figure that puts me in the middle.

I hadn’t suddenly found a new investment, so I reviewed my existing investments. Recent history and fresh earnings reports told me that nothing much had changed. They’re mostly startups, and they’re trying to start up. Always chaotic.

Allow me to review (partly for my own records) how each looks, kinda like a mini-update to my Semi-Annual Exercise.

GERN – They won FDA approval, but the stock hasn’t moved. But, they also are slowly rolling out their commercialization scheme. Progress. Slow, but progress. But also my largest holding. Mathematically they may be the best near-term ROI. In terms of divesification though, I set them aside.

LCTX – Another biotech working towards approval, but that’s a ways off. In the meantime, their stock languishes, but I have a personal limit on how many shares I hold. I’ve maxed out on LCTX.

XOS – They’re where my SOLO shares went. Management has yet to impress me or the market. I’ll give them more time.

WNDW – Management had a major mess that they ‘should’ have recovered from, but evidently, not yet. The company, not just the stock, the company is worth less than some mansions. The stock trades so infrequently that a days volume is a few thousand dollars. I’m sure some independent retail businesses are busier.

LUNR – My space investment, and while I am a fan (my degree is in Aerospace and Ocean Engineering), I consider them risky enough to hold but not add too. The next success may mean I can’t afford to buy in, and that would be good news too. But not now.

SLDP – Really liking owning stock in a solid battery company. I’ll hold, but Samsung’s news seems to have dampened enthusiasm for small companies as if a mega-corp has established dominance.

That leaves the two I bought.

MVIS – The electro-optical component company that has been trying to start up for about thirty years. Yep. They sucked me in again. My history with them is long (follow the hashtag https://trimbathcreative.net/tag/mvis/). Considering my increased portfolio, it felt like a good time to buy more, almost as a balancing issue, but also because I continue to hold optimism for their technology. Their management, well…they’ve yet to find anyone who can get this motor started.

QBTS – Talk about a technology that has great potential, is tough for analysts to analyze, and it cheap – and it got cheaper, at least since I bought it last time. Going to my max number of shares was an easy decision. Why’s the stock down? Analysts understand steadily higher profits. Technologists understand that technology is rarely steady. Leaps happen. Sometimes the leaps are in the science, or the manufacturing, or in the customer base as customers realize why they need it. Once upon a time I had FFIV. Paraphrasing their CEO (the best I’ve met), sales took off when the word about the product got past the gatekeepers of purchasing agents and got to the IT staffs that said they needed to have this, even if management didn’t understand it. I can see that happening with QBTS. I hope. Maxed out.

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Through all of this, I am fortunate enough to have over four decades of experience. I’ve cut myself on falling knives before. Falling knives are stocks that are falling. Trying to catch them on the way down can be painful. Conventional wisdom is to let the knife fall, then pick it up. In the reality of the stock market, stocks stop falling somewhere before they hit and stop. They bounce in mid-air. I bought MVIS circa 2000 after the stock fell 20%. Split-adjusted, it peaked at about $500. It ‘bottomed’ at under $30. I bought more. This week’s purchase was at $0.92-ish.

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Meanwhile, circa 2000, I bought FFIV after it fell from about $60 to about $20, about where I bought it, and sunk to about $3. Somewhere I bought more. When it hit about $40 about ten years later I sold and made a large downpayment on my first real home. FFIV is trading at about$189 as I type. Sometimes it works. Sometimes it doesn’t. Sometimes it takes time. Sometimes I wonder how my life would’ve been if I’d held, but that would’ve required living in a rental owned by rats and occupied by black mold. Decisions and choices.

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AI Arrived Long Ago

Fear not! AI is already taking over. Any debate is moot. It’s not done, and there isn’t much we can do about it. Congratulate yourself on adapting so well, so far.

AI is not AI is not AI. There are many levels of AI, and we’ve already met the earliest models of them. Think automation. Compare life from fifty years ago to now. We’re using lots of things that are at least somewhat intelligent. A coffee maker isn’t an ideal of artificial intelligence, but it is smart enough to take your commands, brew the coffee, and turn itself off – and maybe stay on just to keep it warm. ‘That’s not AI.’ No, but yes, at least at the level of a toddler savant. 

A coffeemaker is not an ultimate AI, but it is a start.

Spell check is just looking up what you typed against a dictionary. But spell check has to use some intelligence to guess at which word you really wanted. Now, it has graduated to grammar check. It can even have opinions about tone and measures of reading level.

Spell check wasn’t doing the writing, but it can now. And, it is getting better.

Cars are things. We drive them. But, since the introduction of power steering and power braking, our driving has been assisting. That may be a built-in response, but then we upgraded to cruise control, and anti-skid, and power-sharing in 4WD, and now lane-assist, separation distancing, auto parallel parking, and features I’m not familiar with because my car isn’t that fancy. Auto-start? Come-when-you-call? Autonomous operations? Cars have advanced far enough that owners have given up control of maintenance, and mechanics have to trust the computer about what to work on before a human hand does more than open the hood.

Auto automation is not waiting for the ultimate AI; it is doing what it can do with what it has.

Thank the Baby Boom age for what happened to the home. There were some labor saving devices prior to World War II, but soon after peace, the machines began to need user manuals. Now, washing machines are smart enough to confuse users about what cycle to use and why. Ovens and cooktops have safety features that make sure we don’t hurt ourselves, evidently because they take better care of us than we do. Now, so many of them are so intelligent that they can tell us what to shop for. Train yourself on their new language of timers and beepers to draw attention back to their/our task. 

We’ve come a long way from fires for cooking and streams for water, largely because of the increasingly smart systems we’ve created.

For centuries, the most common non-human security system was a dog, or even better, dogs. Maybe some geese. Now, we don’t even have to get up to get the door, or even be home to talk with someone who walked onto the porch – or back door, or into a garage where they shouldn’t be, or… There are systems that detect people and critters, launch a drone, and give you a real-time video of what is happening. These are not dumb systems, but they are getting smarter. Our habits are unique and preditable enough that the sensors can identify the people and the pets, and notify us if something or someone is unfamiliar. Lock or unlock the house without being in the same time zone.

A somewhat intelligent entity is now a gatekeeper, concierge, and guardian at the gate. 

Words were pen and paper. Photos were click and shoot and develop and print. Neither now exist without at least the opportunity to be corrected and improved according to points of style that relied on humans before.

How many people would get lost without GPS?

Voicemail menues and Help bots try to outguess what we want and need. They may save companies money. They may ruin consumer approval. They can be dangerously wrong, but they are young and maturing.

Resumes are read by bots before humans see a few of the total.

Ads aren’t broadcast but are selectively provided based on intelligent guesses based on our recent activities. Spooky.

Doctors, even at the sophisticated level of surgeons, are tapping electronic databases instead of educated and experienced humans. We give them the power.

“I Am Not A Robot”, and the burden of proof is on the human while the power is in the machine.

And then, there’s true Artificial Intelligence. What I’ve written above this paragraph is a series of nuanced interpretations of intelligence. Power steering didn’t start as intelligence, but by design, intelligence was incorporated into something that wasn’t human. We’re done that throughout our culture and civilization. 

One simplistic way to typify Artificial Intelligence is to embody the necessary skills and actions of a human into a machine. We’ve been advancing that front for decades. Rather than worry about the arrival of AI, recognize that we’ve been enabling it throughout our lives. 

Humans are all part of a wide spectrum of skills and actions. None of us can do it all. No regular, stereoptypical AI can do it all. Some of us are great mechanics, but not most of us. An AI can be great at one thing, or a few things, but may not be able to do something some other AI can do.

AI has been arriving like a rising tide. I expect jobs to be lost and industries to fade away, but that has always been the case.

The AI I think is more valid to worry about is the AI that comes after the early AIs. Programmers are already losing control, or at least an understanding of AIs. When AIs start creating better AIs, even ‘our’ AIs may not be able to understand what has happened, what it’s motivations are, and what its intent might be.

That’s the AI that is more than an unknown, it is an unknowable unknown. And, there’s a chance that it will arrive within the period of a mortgage, a career, and definitely a lifetime.

So, here’s the potential personal finance bent on this topic. What do you do about it? For those of us not in the industry, the topic is not academic. I ask myself whether my investments will make sense in an AI-dominated world. 

The same question applies to my lifestyle. I’m glad I moved to a simple tiny house. As simple as it is, little lights populate the night. One caveman image was of someone sitting by a fire at night, ringed with the glowing eyes of creatures watching the human that is huddled by the fire’s security. My nightly walk to the kitchen is accompanied by one-eyed LEDs showing that many somethings await. Fortunately, they are less likely to attack.

And, what if they break? My area underwent an internet outage last night. I planned on working on my book (the sequel to Firewatcher), but I managed to go dancing instead. But that also means I’d doing more work on a Saturday.  Those few hours were critical to some, undoubtedly, but they were an inconvenience to most, at most.

We’ve been driving ourselves to a world where we’re more integrated and automated, and more vulnerable to everything working. Reliability and sustainability are not as valued in the economy as new regardless of improved. Maybe an AI will be smart enough to properly prioritize things without the distraction of human emotions.

Maybe we’ll embrace the impartiality of AI protection, AI justice, AI elected offcials, etc. It might take much from where we are to advance AI to the point that we relinguish control on such systems in an attempt to remove bias and injustice.

We’ve been riding this tide for decades. I doubt we can stop now.

In terms of investing and lifestyle, I take AI as a given. It is going to happen because we’ve been making it happen for a very long time. I haven’t reduced my considerations to a short, concise set of strategies, but I think there’s real non-academic value to adjusting my life given that assumption. I’ve got the tiny house; how about the large lot of land to go with it? Maybe I should as an AI for help.

(Irony: I now tend to have Grammarly review and suggest edits to my writing. I don’t blindly accept its direction. As a writer, it is still young. But, I can already see that I’m becoming a bit antiquated by picking my own words, breaking rules to make a point, and trying to be more human in my writing. Welcome to the new world.)

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Medicare And My Move

As if there wasn’t enough to do, my move made Kaiser Permanente move – move to cancel my insurance. Isn’t bureaucracy grand? You don’t have to answer that. Their move makes some sense, I guess. I moved to an area they don’t cover, so they can’t cover me, so they canceled my coverage. Surprise! Time to get new coverage. STAT. I think I did it, but I have doubts.

Welcome to Port Townsend, yet another tourist town and not far from where I lived since 2005, Whidbey Island. One ferry ride away – and be prepared for cancellations. I’m guessing that most moves mean many of the same things for many people: lots of change of address forms, arranging for new services, getting familiar with where, what, and when things are available. Same here. Two months into the move, and I’ve filled out lots of those forms, and am not done yet. And then I went to the doctor.

I say doctor, but I probably should be more specific and say naturopath. Traditional services created and then perpetuated the conditions that have spawned over a decade of anxiety attacks. I’m not going to describe what, how, and when they did the things they did because – get this logic – it could trigger another anxiety attack. One of the reasons for the move was to get healthier financially, as well as healthier in all other ways, too. That’s why one of the things I’ve already done is to say thank you and good-bye to a marvelous naturopath on Whidbey, Dr. Molly Fox, and begin working with Dr. Rosalie De Lombaert near downtown Port Townsend (on the waterfront, cool.) Both are good folks, or at least they put up with me.

The precipitating episode ensues. Prepare for serendipity, or at least synchronicity.

I was sitting in my car just after my first long session with Dr. Rosalie. (She types fast! And I gave her lots to type about. Hey, I’m 65. My body has been through a lot.) Even before I start the car, I get a call. Is it from Dr. Rosalie’s assistants about some form? No. By chance, it is someone at my previous insurance company, Kaiser Permanente, calling me about refreshing a prescription. Do I want to do so? Sure. Oh, by the way, I have a new address. Please mail it there. Fine. No problem. OK. That’s taken care of.

About 90 seconds after I hang up, I get another call. KP (because I’m getting tired of typing Kaiser Permanente) calls back with a short message. Because I moved, my insurance will be canceled on the last day of the month, about ten days away. Erp. Eep. Uh oh? I’m on Medicare. Doesn’t that make a difference? (By the way, bows to the poor caller from KP. It was her first week. They were coping with the Blue Screen Of Death syndrome, and I think I was her first cancellation. She was somewhat traumatized and stressed. What a way to start a job.)

I hadn’t even left the parking lot, and my medical world had changed.

Long-time readers will know that I Do Not Like forms, or bureaucracies, especially medical ones. Ugh. Where’s my anxiety medication? Oh, right, I need more of that.

One distinction I’ve learned to make is that insurance isn’t care. For years, I’ve dealt directly with providers as much as possible. Doctors and nurses are reasonable and see the direct connection between what they do and what it does. Insurance isn’t care. Insurance may enable care, but it is there to care about the cash primarily. At least, that’s my experience. 

Grumble. Gripe. I still do not understand Medicare. From what I understand, I’m covered by Medicare regardless, but it seems like the system is largely administered and enabled by the insurance companies. I don’t know why health insurance companies are supposed to be better than the government at managing such a system, but I’m guessing lobbyists are involved. 

Ignore grumble and gripe. I’ve got less than two weeks to find something that checks the boxes.

Go online, of course. Medicare, insurance companies, health organizations all have an overwhelmng amount of information, much of which seems redundant. (BTW I mistyped ‘much’ as ‘mush’ and I think describing the info as mush might be appropriate.) For a few days I tried educating myself, again. Nope. I was barely more successful this time as last time, which was only half a year ago. Call for help.

Help! Dr. Rosalie referred me to a well-known firm (hey, they have ads before the movie trailers in the local theater), Kristin Waring. My deadline was July 31. There was a weekend coming up. They could fit me in early July 31. Timely, but without much of a margin.

I’ll skip the suspense and mention that we met, and they did an excellent job (application pending.) I’ll also point out that the move helped manufacture a glitch. It was because of my insurance card and the move.

Lots of legalese flies around insurance, the government, and therefore, healthcare. As I mentioned when I signed up for Medicare, the amount of necessary disclosures, disclaimers, and actual descriptions are overwhelming. From one source alone I received more words than I put into one of my books, and there are mutliple sources. Reading it all would take hours or days. Understanding it could take longer. Comparing the plans could take long, and involve spreadsheets of data. Yeah, help.

Amongst and amidst all of that KP, sent me new cards, probably to reflect existing coverage, a new year, signing up for Medicare, and I don’t know what else. They didn’t all fit in my wallet. They weren’t dated, so I couldn’t tell which was most current, so I guessed and picked one. Months later, here’s the move, that’s the card I have, and it’s the card I relayed to the helpful person at Kristin Waring. 

Wrong card. I found that out an hour or so later when she called to tell me that. I had photos of old cards, but they were probably too old. I might have the newest card, but I’m guessing it is still in a box, on a shelf, in a storage unit – maybe.

Thanks for the help. Where’s that anxiety medication?

No need. I’ll spare you those details too. She resolved everything, but in the meantime and keeping in mind the deadline, I’d called and emailed several sources, as well as scoured my computer files for photos of the cards.

As convoluted as this experience may seem, it is the easiest experience I can recall in years. And this amount of stress is for health care, and one of my major health issues is stress. It is at times like this when I become more of a fan of universal healthcare, even just to eliminate bureaucracy.

From an automated email and one from a real person, I believe I might or at least should have insurance coverage as of August 1, 2024, which is tomorrow as I type. I should get notification of that within a week or so. So, if anything happens within the next week, … I decline to describe such a scenario.

Despite all of this insurance confusion, I am glad that I’ve already arranged for health care that I am willing to pay for out of pocket. Health care is that important to me, and thanks to selling my house, I can afford to pay direct. I have begun working with Dr. Rosalie. I already have a dentist. I have arranged for a mental health counselor (who would’ve been handy, but we haven’t met yet). Vision care will happen, but I’ve been busy. 

I’ll probably wait until I get a new card (hopefully only one is necessary), and then arrange for more sessions. Being poor (from my perspective) for the last several years has been demonstrably unhealthy. I’m 65. I don’t want to wait at getting healthy again. Other luxuries are now affordable, but I can’t think of one that is more valuable.

If all works well, I probably won’t write about it. There’s always other things too. In the meantime, I pause, enjoy the sunshine, and starting making a healthy meal with veggies in it – and a thing or two that the doctor may not approve of. Apologies. It’s been a day, eh?

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Looking Brighter

How odd is it to write this? Yep. Odd. And yet, as one friend put it, I can be disarmingly honest – which may just be another way of saying that I over-share, or surprise people, or scare people, or something else. Personal finance is not always about finance; sometimes it is personal, about being a person. Selling my house and buying a tiny house had literally brightened my life. Yep. That was weird, odd, and a surprise.

It sounds trite. It sounds like the Wizard of Oz going from black and white to color. Lately, colors are brighter. Scenes are sweeter. The world looks better. The local Chamber of Commerce and tourism folks would probably love to say it is all because I moved to Port Townsend, which is an attractive place; but I noticed the change even when I re-visited my old neighborhood on Whidbey Island.

OK. I’m a curious fellow, so rather than just say, ‘huh, that’s curious’, I asked why such a thing could happen. I haven’t changed medications, or had any procedures (but arranging for new health care will be chronicled in a new post soon). In particular, greens were greener, but I also noticed more variations in the shades and hues. Lighting patterns were amplified. The world looked better.

For some background, I am also a photographer. I’ve sold my art and produced a ten-book photo series of Whidbey Island (photos, books). I notice light and color. I notice them more, now. (note to photographers: It was as if my HDR was switched on. Not exactly, but kinda.)


I’ll spare you the convoluted introspection that made me realize why it was happening. I’m debt-free, again.

Being debt-free improved my eyesight? Yep.

Being poor is unhealthy. I’ve just spent over a decade of dealing with the aftermath of what some friendly finance professionals called ‘a perfect storm of bad luck’. I called it My Triple Whammy. Details throughout this blog.

It can be difficult to understand how fundamentally different lifestyles can be. For those years, I was increasingly stressed and focused on surviving my financial upset. As my stress and focus intensified, my awareness of the world became increasingly narrow. Gotta make money, yes. But also, avoid anything that will cost money. Don’t hurt the car, or the house, or the career, or…, or…, etc. And overall, don’t hurt my body. Don’t hurt my Self. I couldn’t afford it.

I could still enjoy the colors of the changing seasons, but my brain reduced their priority. Gotta get the work done. Gotta spend as little as possible. Offers to go to free concerts weren’t free because they’d cost gas and time. Pay what you can takes care of the cash requirement, but it can’t cover lost work. The opportunity for joy is dulled.

Now that I am debt-free, I’m feeling better in other ways. My dreams have improved. As one friend said, I look lighter. I’m guessing my posture has improved (and has a long way to go as I sit scrunched typing this.) More money in the account, thanks to the house sale, means more time in bed. I’m even trying to relax. Still working on relaxing. That has deeper history.

And I pause. Yes, there are mean people out there. Yes, there are fine people in poverty. And yes, they can literally be seeing a different world, a darker world, a less vibrant world. Maybe they can’t afford entertainments. Maybe they can’t afford food. There’s no surprise if they can’t afford housing. Imagine how the world looks when you can’t afford a place to sleep, care for kids, doctor visits, family visits. I’ve yet to visit my father’s grave. (Maybe within the next several months.) When I see a car with a headlight out, or duct-tape across a window, or a fender held on with bungee cords I am now more likely to wonder about what else they can’t afford, and where their car is on their priority list.

I’ve seen the reports that objectively quantify the effect of income on life span, housing, etc.; but there’s less-tangible effects, some at least partly quantifiable, some highly individualized and subjective. I do not wonder why so many people see different ideologies, especially, if they are seeing different worlds.

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Impermanence

I thought I was going on a bike ride organized by some local authorities to tour affordable housing issues and possibilities. Well, yes; but, no. It was a ride of the historical features of the area that must be kept in mind while creating housing solutions. I was confused, but it was a bike ride, so I didn’t care. Two hours of riding around my new neighborhoods? Sure. Whatever they wanted me to get out of it, the theme that stayed with me is impermanence. Things don’t stay the same.

I moved to Port Townsend about two months ago. But, I didn’t move to Port Townsend proper. I moved to the outskirts that simply use Port Townsend as a mailing address. Port Hadlock-Irondale holds about 4,000 people. Port Townsend has about 10,000, making it The Big City. I live between them. They’re planning on making Irondale bigger. Bigger happens. The surprise came when I learned that about a hundred years ago, Irondale’s plans were to grow to 20,000. They had Plans!

Something happened. 

The history of the Quimper Peninsula (I think I got that right) is an interesting story about a region that was poised for dramatic growth suddenly was looked over as steamships sailed to Seattle instead of harboring in the tall ship friendly port of Port Townsend. The region had iron ore and coal, which was a combination that made Pittsburgh famous, but the railroads decided to stop on the other side of the Sound. Plans abandoned and stranded. 

We rode to the site of the old mill. Now, it is used as a beach. It is easy to overlook the ruins of the kilns and docks, bricks and concrete either washed by the surf or used as canvas for graffiti. Where did the slag go? Where did the coal come from?

Now, the area is growing again thanks to being near Seattle. The people gotta go somewhere.

But my mind went back to when I lived in a Seattle suburb which has massively grown, Bellevue. (Sold a house for ~$340K circa 2001. Last time I checked, it was priced at ~$1.2M.) Ah, but Bellevue was suburban enough to be near trails in hills and forests with wildlife. The place was called Cougar Mountain. In some places in the world, it would be a mountain, but in Western Washington it is really only a large hill when compared to the local snowy peaks and occasional volcano. The cougar part is appropriate. Residents should mind their pets.

Before Seattle was big, before Bellevue was big, Red Town was big. Whatever their relative sizes, Red Town’s future was encouraging because they found coal. Coal on the West Coast? Excellent! Find some iron ore and the area could be the other Pittsburgh. 

Now, it is even easier to overlook the ruins as the edges of a temperate rainforest cover the town’s remains. For me, the largest evidence of the past was the gated, fenced, and blocked entrance to the abandoned coal mile.

For years, the area has been growing again thanks to being near Seattle. The people gotta go somewhere.

I caught myself before I asked too many self-referential questions, but my family home was just outside Pittsburgh, near a few mills and an abandoned mine. I was bicycling past echoes of my past.

I was raised in West Mifflin. Never heard of it? Why would you? It is a suburb of Pittsburgh. Contrary to popular perception, Pittsburgh didn’t have the most mills. The messy, nasty, smelly, and amazingly productive mills were outside The Big City. Our house was within a short bike ride (even for a teenage me) of a few mills. Beneath much of it was an abandoned coal mine. As kids, we played in the remnants of mine subsidences. Friends toured the flooded shafts on air mattresses. 

We rode around a slag dump, a slag dump that was supposedly the largest man-made mountain. Steel mills make steel, but between iron ore and pure steel there’s a lot of byproducts. Slag is like molten lava. The mills had a railroad that carried it to the dump, then dumped the ore down the self-made mountain in a splash of lava and a shower of sparks. Evidently, my parents would have date nights when they went there to watch the cheap light show.

About the time I was in high school, developers decided to use the defunct part of the slag dump as a site for a massive shopping mall and more. Being kids, we rode around the construction site when we could. Mostly, I rode around the raw slag. To break it up, the construction crews had to use a bulldozer pulling a grader sometimes being pushed by another bulldozer. Not dirt. Lava. Solidified lava. The tale of Century III Mall actually warrants some YouTube videos and a wikipedia page. According to wikipedia, it was the world’s third-largest mall for a while. Pittsburgh was growing. People were moving to the suburbs and shopping. Soon, that wikipedia page and those videos may be all that is left. They’re tearing down the mall.

Impermanence

OMG. Things are changing! Should I simply write the word: Duh?

Massive buildings can vanish within a lifetime. I’m guessing that grand plans usually don’t succeed. Some do, but even they aren’t likely to be permanent. 

Currently there are dramatic changes in climate, politics, technology, and society. That’s the norm. Preparing for a change to a New Normal may not be as important as preparing for change followed by change, ad infinitum. Conventional wisdom may have been wise, but conventions are changing. I’m more interested in plans that are built around adaptation rather that some new convention. 

It is romantic and nostalgic to remember simpler times. Spam would have a tough time if we only used rotary phones. But, if I dial 9-1-1, they have a better chance of knowing where I am and can contact me at the scene of wherever. How many lives has that saved? 

As usual, I bring this back to personal finance (and I’ll spare you my thoughts on shopping malls and such – for now). 

I continue to hear conventional wisdom based on the boom times after World War II. These times aren’t those times. Work hard, yes. Spend less than you make, yes. Invest the rest, yes. But work has changed; so much for life-time employment and benefits. Spending has changed; as minimum wage isn’t survivable, and affordable has less to do with prices than with employment (IMO). Investing is no longer expensive commissions, but its internal competition is already people versus algorithm. And the changes are accelerating.

One of the reasons I sold my house was because I wanted to be better prepared for change, even without knowing what that change will be. My most immediate worry was any possibility that my Social Security would effectively or totally vanish. I got out of debt in case inflation gets truly out of control. I moved off a beautiful island because basic infrastructure, like ferries, isn’t being managed responsibly. I continue to stay in a place that is temperate and with local resources like water. (I might even get solar on my house, pending management’s proposed sale of my leased property. Another topic.) 

I live alone, but in terms of lifestyle, I am not alone. Several friends are becoming increasingly nomadic. Sell the house. Buy a van, or a boat, or a lot of airline tickets, or tour the world through epic house-sitting adventures.) Why only live in one place? I could even imagine moving, and I only got here two months ago.

The only constant is change. Even the pyramids will crumble. If the conventional wisdom isn’t changing, maybe you’re the one to challenge and change the convention.

Ah, the weather has changed. I mowed the yard in a light mist that turned into a dull overcast, which has now become clear blue sky. It is about time for me to change into clothes to dance in. There’s a dance late this afternoon. It’s down on the waterfront, by the old pier. You can even see the abandoned dock that is stuck in the mud but not connected to anything else.

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Losing Track Of The Lottery

That caught me by surprise. I forgot how to play my lottery game. For years, I’ve played this game with myself. What would I do if I won the lottery? I’d imagine a range of answers from winning $1 to winning $1B. This week, I realized I’d been so busy moving into my tiny house (MyTinyExperiment.com) that I hadn’t played the game in a while. Instead of mentally rattling off a list of possibilities, my answer was a blank. How’d that happen? What did that mean? Cool. Being debt-free had deeper effects than I expected. Unintended consequences can be quiet – and significant.

Here’s one example of how the game, or rather the exercise, went just a few months ago. 
Win $1. Thank you. Can I have another ticket?
Win $10. OK. I’d like a ticket for the next ten drawings. (In WA you can pre-buy tickets 25 drawings in advance. Handy for lazy gambling.)
Win $100. Give me the money! And the money will go into my wallet, merely delaying my next trip to the ATM.
Win $1,000. Give me the money, or better, give my bank the money – with maybe a $100 splurge. (Which is less than some folks spend in dinner without noticing it.)
Win $10,000. Nice. Not much more of a splurge. If I had any debt, pay off a chunk. Invest the rest.
Win $100,000. Pay down debt. Fix up the house. Take care of some medical bills. Splurge a bit, which might be a trip to visit family the next time the weather discourages hiking, but I want a break. Hello, Amtrak.
Win $1,000,000. Hello, doctor. Hello, realtor. Something nice near the Salish Sea. 
Win $10,000,000. Hello, philanthropy. And all the rest.
Win $100,000,000 or more. Take lessons from the people I’ve met for whom excess wealth damaged their perspective. Philanthropy, for sure. Keep it simple, but with the ability to do so Very Comfortably.

So, I saw the lottery board flashing at the local convenience store which kicked off the return to that exercise – and realized nothing came to mind. What? Where’d those ideas go?

It took me about three days of occasional and casual introspection to finally realize that my lifestyle is now so much less driven by debt (e.g. effectively none) that many more of my needs are being met. Prior to selling my house on Whidbey, I was living with a mortgage, a home equity loan, and credit card debt. Every day, deferred responsibilities nagged me to get something done; but I couldn’t because I would have to go deeper into debt. Ah, but if I won the lottery, those nags could be silenced. 

I sold my house. The debts are gone. My view is gone, too. (But the world literally looks better, which may be the topic of a subsequent post.)

Frequently, I hear criticisms of poor people who shouldn’t be playing the lottery. For me, the lottery played two major roles and a few minor ones. 1) Desperation. If working hard isn’t getting rid of personal poverty, then why not try an occasional $1 bet? The odds are very small, but not buying a ticket means the odds are zero. It could happen to you! So they say, and evidently, it does happen to random people. 2) Mental health. I’m not going to dig for Sun Tzu’s quote but basically, there’s a tremendous difference between being trapped versus knowing there’s at least one way out of a bad situation. Knowing I had a ticket in my wallet meant that there was a possibility of a way out. It might be highly improbable, but improbable is not impossible. A $1 ticket was an economical way to alleviate at least some anxieties – and was a lot cheaper than the preferred but expensive professional counseling. There’s a third approach presented by some economist. There’s an entertainment value to the ticket. Compare the cost and benefit of a $1 and the dreams it enables to the cost and benefit of a movie ticket. A movie lasts 2 hours and costs $10-$15. The movie’s cost is $5-$7.50/hour. $1 worth of a movie is roughly 1/5 of an hour. If buying a lottery ticket lets someone dream for more than that amount of time, it was a better deal than the movie, and cheaper.

And my brain’s recent response wasn’t working from desperation, a mental health break, or the need for escapism.

Imagine a pause in there because I paused at that realization.

Being in debt with more money going out than coming in was more than a financial shift. For years, I’d been in a haze of desperation, mental health issues, and wanting an escape. That consumed more than a small amount of my mind.

That much more of me is now free. (Had to go for the rhyme as I typed that.)

I pause as I type as I think about the millions of people who feel the need for an escape. They can feel trapped and desperate, especially because conventional wisdom no longer is reliable. As usual, the folks who may need counseling are the ones least likely to afford it. Maybe this is a source of the tons of anguish we’re seeing played out in our world.

Sigh.

And I continue to buy lottery tickets, one per drawing, generally. I feel like I’ve gone from floundering and trying to tread water to having found a large piece of driftwood or a small raft. I’m still floating down where the sharks live. Forget bootstraps. I’m not aiming for a yacht, either. (Though I am intrigued by the next generation of electric boats.) But sustainably safe is still out of reach, but getting closer. I continue to write, invest, and generally do what I can to improve my life. Wish me good luck, and I wish it for you, too.

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Value Of Time

What is the value of time? Gawd. Is there ever so ridiculously obvious and simply complex question? Time is all we have. We trade it for so little, and also for so many vital things. Allow me to try to be practical and pragmatic about it, at least as applies to my reality.

Track every penny. That’s advice I’ve heard from many. I also tracked it before I was told to. Being a student can do that. In the long lost era of cash and checks it was hard to not know how much money was going into and out of the bank. Being oblivious was in fashion then, too, but then it took skill. Now, subscriptions, fees, autopay, direct deposit, and only online reporting make it easy to ignore the process of income and expense. Running over? That’s what credit is for. Isn’t it?

Track every minute. I’ve never heard that one. Being aware of every minute is more daunting despite the philosophical insights and worldview it can provide. What wonder is a flower, or the leaves and stem that enable it, or the seed at its source, or the previous flower that created it? My yard has thousands of flowers and I don’t, I can’t, dwell on every one.

It makes sense to follow the money. Money, or at least assets and worth, are required in our society and civilization. If you have more than enough money you can spend your time more freely. If you have more time but not enough money the pressure is on to spend more time on making more money.

How long does it take to account for every penny? That depends on the person, but that act requires an expense of a life being lived for something artificial. 

I think it makes sense to track every penny – for a while. Gain that awareness, but don’t be enslaved to it, unless your necessities necessitate it.

I no longer track every penny. Every week or so I track my account balances to see if anything significant up or down has gone one. Usually, nothing dramatic happens.

I can’t find the quote but it goes something like this. “If you’re going to be poor, be realy poor.” Why wallow on that border between poor and not poor if you’re not making progress? I do Not recommend that, but I understand it. Being on that borderline becomes a moment by moment awareness of not having enough, guarding what you’ve got, and vainly working on and wondering about getting more, or at least enough.

A couple of months ago I sold my house. My net worth dropped by about the amount of the commissions, the other expenses of moving, and un-deferring many deferred expenses. Next week begins another round of dealing with deferred issues as I finally have appointments with doctors and dentists. I can afford that because of the equity I had in my house and the relief I got from only buying a tiny house. The cash in the account has already improved my health. My apologies to my previous doctor. My new one should thank the old one for getting me this far.

Tracking every penny seems silly compared to the arm-waving that is done with negotiating prices and commissions. One contractor’s bill was probably inflated by ~50% according to some folks familiar with the work. That’s a contractor who won’t get anymore work from me. It would have made more sense to spend the time negotiating with the contractor than counting every penny. (Regardless, I consider the work worth it because it limited the likelihood of much larger damages from a threat to the house.)

Just playing with numbers. If you have a $100,000 portfolio, maybe your IRA, a 1% change is $1,000. That’s a lot of pennies. How long would it take to track those hundred thousand pennies? How long did it take to decide on that investment in that IRA? 

How long do some people spend planning a vacation? 

I am not a minimalist’s minimalist, but compared to many I get by with very little. I’ve been in my tiny house (MyTinyExperiment.com) for about two months and have yet to fill every cupboard and closet. There are a lot of things in storage, but that’s getting winnowed at my own pace in my own time. The storage unit costs ~$200/month. The value of some of the items is substantial, but not needed yet. Some items are required to be stored by law. A lot is irreplaceable. Heirlooms happen. So do certain books.

The time I spend there won’t decrease the monthly rent until I lose about a third of it. That will be awhile. It is a box of assets with various doubtful values.

Two hundred dollars a month is about seven dollars a day. (Let me check the math: $7×30=$210.) Some people will see the difference in $7 at the end of a day. They may not have much more. How many people don’t know if their grocery bill was accurate to $7? How much did dinner out cost? How much did that shower cost in terms of water and heating it for a shower?

The biggest savings I’ve seen were the things I’ve decided not to buy. A simpler car saved thousands, and fewer anxieties. An electric bike might happen, but my thirty-year-old pedal bike has moved me across countries and over mountains. Dining in rather than dining out may not be socially fashionable, but tonight’s fish and veggie rice bowl from scratch tasted better than a $35 chef’s made dinner from a restaurant, at least for me. The drink was cheaper too.

Once upon a time in an online stock market discussion I was asked to lament about my largest losses. Many of us had just lost most of our holdings in a crash. My biggest mistakes weren’t stocks that went down 99.99%. My biggest mistakes were from not trusting myself and talking myself out of buying Bitcoin at $220, SBUX when it was young, the same with PIXR, AOL/AMER; or selling FFIV, etc. Pennies are important, but I spent too little time applying what I know. I allowed myself to be stymied from selling at peaks, and not buying at troughs. It hasn’t been absolute. Look a few sentences back; I’ve frequently lost >99% but I sold FFIV at $44 and it went to over $240. Gains, if they happen, can cover lots of losses. That is a big IF.

There are jokes and memes about how much a minute is worth to Elon Musk. (A quick search comes up with $6,887/minute. – wionews.com)

How much is your time worth? If a minute spent with finances save you a penny was it worth it? If a minute spent with a friend strengthens that friendship was it worth it? 

Go ahead. If you’ve never tracked every penny for one month (~one billing cycle), then it can be an education. But, at some point, decide if time is more important. Are people more important? Is life more important? And if you are on the knife edge I am lucky enough to have gotten off of, trust yourself to know if the penny or the second is more important. None of us can know that as well as you can.

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