Lines In The Water

Posted on March 9, 2011 by Tom Trimbath

Commiseration happens. As is usual for the last few years, a friendly conversation turned to personal economics. Home improvement projects, preventative health care, and even small luxuries like a new bicycle seat have been postponed awaiting better finances. We’re both writers. He’s more of a wordsmith. We wandered from specifics and played with the analogy of fishing. Fly fishing has an elegance and lots of movement, but sometimes you just have to put a lot of lines in the water. Spread them out. Use different baits and hooks. Take a seat. Be patient. You can be pleasantly surprised at what you catch.

Our conversation went that way because both of us are, ironically, very active people. We both have investments, create art, and exercise our inventive minds. He has a business. I do public speaking and teach classes. We both have very good circles of friends. Neither of us has “enough”. Both of us are frugal and have very good ideas of what that number might be. It can be frustrating to work hard and have a lot of effort seemingly go to waste. He’s the one that pointed out that he and I have lots of lines in the water. Drill into the menu headings above this blog or head out to my web site (www.trimbathcreative.com) and see my lists there. I won’t bore you with them here. His list is different, similarly extensive, but not as public.

We aren’t the only ones. People impress me because everyone has multiple skills. Unfortunately, too frequently, their skills are dismissed by others, or they never find a fertile venue. Others find that their talents are perfectly matched to their time and society. Listen to one of the richest men in the world.
“Take me as an example. I happen to have a talent for allocating capital. But my ability to use that talent is completely dependent on the society I was born into. If I’d been born into a tribe of hunters, this talent of mine would be pretty worthless. I can’t run very fast. I’m not particularly strong. I’d probably end up as some wild animal’s dinner. ” – Warren Buffett
How many people do you know that probably have exceptional and useful talents that are merely undeveloped, mismatched to today’s society, or wrong for their current occupation?

People who have enough, and people who are living within their means, have already caught something and can fish leisurely. Even then it’s good to have something else ready to go, unless it means you spend too much time watching too many lines.

For folks that need to fish, I think the best way to get lines into the water is to do it yourself. Government and other support networks may be too busy to help. Following your passion might lead you to dinner.

This same thing applies to investing. (At this point some readers groan. Other readers say “Finally!”) Lots of lines in the water is another way to describe a diversified portfolio. Traders targeting one stock are more like fly fishing. One line cast many times, rarely let to set. My style is more like what I did as a kid. Still fishing, setting out a few lines, baited and spread along the shore, then watched from a comfortable spot, waiting for something to bite and get hooked.

Portfolio performance is tossed around as if a 10% increase means each stock went up 10%. A portfolio’s performance is the result of the ups and downs of all of the stocks. Put ten fishing lines in the water and they don’t each catch exactly 1/10 of the total. They each might catch something, but each catch is different and happens at its own time. One line may catch a sturgeon. One a guppy. Hopefully most of them catch enough to keep the angler fed.

My portfolio performance has recently been dismal. The big money has been drawn to the big companies, or has been scared out of the market because of political unrest. Those big stocks have generated the bull market. My stocks are from small or young companies. The stock prices are below my estimated values, which can be depressing, but as my friend pointed out, I have lots of lines in the water. I have a somewhat diversified portfolio. Most of the companies are doing well. Those that aren’t might simply be delayed success stories (MVIS?). Eventually the market recognizes success because any mismatch between price and value becomes more obvious as time and financial reports flow by. I merely have to be patient. If only my bills could be patient too.

Fortunately, one or two of my stocks are hooked to very successful and promising companies (AMSC & DNDN). Those lines have done well and have reasons to do even better. I’ve harvested those catches to pay bills, but also to add to some of the other lines. Harvesting or rebalancing a portfolio becomes like taking some of a catch for dinner, and using some for more bait. It’s been years since I’ve had to buy bait.

The lines I’ve cast are from many aspects of my life: investing, engineering, business, martial arts, teaching, speaking, writing, photography, entrepreneurship, mini-philanthropy, volunteering, and networking. I probably missed a few. Someone told me that I’m living six lives. I believe it. None of it is onerous. I enjoy each of those ventures. I look forward to some of them supplying me with “enough” money, but in the meantime all of them already supply me with a full life.

Like I said in the last post, sometimes I write for myself. This is an internal conversation and review that I have frequently. In many ways I’m busier now than when I was a lead engineer on a major airplane program. Those paychecks were nicer, and I enjoyed the work and the people; but, the culture was personally toxic. That was a pity. That career was also only one line cast in the water. It was a single thread. Now I have lines in the water and when I remember that I feel better. The fishing looks good. I just have to sit back and wait a while.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Spring Is Coming

Posted on March 5, 2011 by Tom Trimbath

The northern hemisphere is in the tail end of winter and amidst the anticipation of spring. Friends around the US are done shoveling snow and are watching bulbs poke through. Around my house the rain will be warmer, but up in the mountains, months of snow will continue. It is cold, and there is hope, but warmth will come in patches, not all at once.

The Dismal Decade is receding, but it isn’t gone yet. Unemployment is decreasing but high. Housing prices are bottoming in some places, and still falling in others, maybe in my neighborhood. Maybe not. Credit card delinquencies are down, but personal and federal debt is high.

In the midst of a blizzard it can be hard to imagine an end to the chill, but logically spring must arrive. The turnings of the numbers are slight, but they are happening in rough unison.

The Decisive Decade is revealing itself. To me, the most obvious example is the awakening across northern Africa and into the Middle East. Definitely a rough spring. Other changes are more subtle and peaceful. Cars (hybrids and electrics) and lights (LEDs) are radically more efficient. People are downsizing houses. Buying and dining local is evident in the growth of farmers markets.

Economic winter shoved a glacier across parts of the landscape, but other parts are recovering as cold places thaw. Some of my friends’ businesses are still slumped. (Oy, I don’t want to look at my book and photo sales. Shudder.) Others though are busier than before. Some are even getting business from avenues and regions they never expected.

I list these examples for my own benefit as much as for encouraging others. Being an optimist occasionally requires internal supports. This is one way that I talk to myself. Hope you don’t mind.

Today’s post almost was going to be “Give Them More Rope”. There are ludicrous events transpiring. Sometimes the quickest resolution to societal insanity is to make it temporary by letting it run to an irrational extreme. Unfortunately, today’s bizarre juxtapositions are affecting lives. Jon Stewart simultaneously defended teachers by using the same logic that others used to support tax cuts for the rich and extraordinary Wall Street bonuses. (And how bizarre is it when Wisconsin’s senators are being chased by their government?) Education, health care, and safety nets are so far removed from normal debate that satire and farce may be the only way to address the issues. Pardon me as I shudder.

History encourages me. I enjoy reading autobiographies. Darwin, Franklin, and Gandhi lived amongst dysfunction and turmoil, much of which they initiated. In the midst of their winters they saw springs. I hope we find similar heroes. Charlie, Ben, and Mohandas (had to look that one up) were ridiculed, threatened, and in one case assassinated for the changes they championed. It doesn’t surprise me when Obama is verbally denigrated. I can’t remember who said it, but one sign that you’re fighting the right fight is that you’ve made enemies.

People encourage me. Recently I’ve attended two events, one that was public (GSEC) and one that was more private. At each, people were actively improving the world. They were doing so by taking the solutions available and applying them now, usually without expectation of reward. I know impressive people. There are about seven billion of us. The few that make things bizarre and dangerous could probably all fit on one cruise ship. They’d probably complain about the accommodations though. The rest of us can fix, heal, and cure a lot.

Spring is coming. In my garden and around my lawn I’ve transplanted and distributed plants from encumbered root balls. I’ve planted seeds, donated, bought, or saved from last year. I don’t know what will grown. I hope all of it. I expect some will fail. But the best defense during winter is to be patient, then look to and prepare for spring. Come on sunshine.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Rainbow Morning

Posted on March 2, 2011 by Tom Trimbath

With astronomical precision and meteorological permission, sunshine came over the ridge behind my house. Across the Sound a storm is kicking up whitecaps and obscuring the Olympics with a mist. The two made a rainbow to start my day.  How much is that worth?

The storm’s center has not arrived. Within a few hours it will come and go. My friends in southwest Canada will feel the strongest energies from what a local, prominent, and entertaining meteorology professor calls a Pacific Hurricane. They’ll see winds much higher than those that are scattering the loose contents of my carport into the neighboring vacant lot. I’ll chase them down later. It will be windy here, it is windy here, but I won’t complain because I know that I am protected by place. Mountains and a turn in the storm’s path diminish the impact on my life.

That’s true of America in general. We have a privilege of place. Despite any border issues or trade disputes we have with Canada or Mexico, we are fortunate to have good neighbors. Our other major borders are massive coasts with oceans for moats. Maybe that’s why we beat ourselves up so much. Old countries on more fractured continents have histories of feuds and conflicts based on squiggly lines drawn across varied terrains. Cultures and societies are arbitrarily splintered. They can point fingers across a line and complain about those “others”. We tend to point at ourselves.

(Oops. There goes the power. Switch to batteries as various devices beep on and off around the house. A minor interruption in service.)

We can be a conflicted people, especially if we’re left to ourselves. Maybe that’s why we over-react to any threat.

I’m tired of it. One way to get me to tune out is for someone to start a conversation, or a presentation, or a sales pitch by drawing lines, borders and distinctions between “us” and “them”. This isn’t just a reaction to Americans or within America. It’s a human tendency. Everyone get to play. I probably do it too, but I don’t like it.

If you haven’t noticed it before, I am an extreme, independent moderate. I am convinced that the answer is in the middle and that no political party or general philosophy has the monopoly on truth or a panacea for ills medical and social. Maybe standing in the middle, or at least the middle as I perceive it, makes it easier for me to see that “us” is really “US”. There is no them.

My task of balancing life and money is persistent. It isn’t continual. I have to sleep sometime. It means though that I treasure time. I’ve had much more money than I do now. I suspect that I’ll have a lot more eventually, maybe soon. Time is different. I don’t want to waste it. But I am amazed at how much time people spend finding labels and camps to mentally organize those around them. Undoubtedly I do so too, but the biggest impact I see is when others start a conversation about “them” in which I don’t see a distinction. Paragraphs are spent negotiating populist boundaries rather than dealing with an issue of celebrating an event.

Liberal & conservative. Gay & straight. Young & old. Black & white. Ignore the media and it becomes easy to step back and see that they are not absolutes. Political values are not endpoints. There is an axis for every issue and positions can change with time. I think some unions are vital and some are anachronisms. I think some corporations are immoral and some are surprisingly sensitive. Gay and straight? Listen long enough and find that that continuum is infinitely diverse. Young and old aren’t only broken up into generations, or years, or days alive. Know any teens acting like they’re thirty? Know any seventy year olds that are childish or childlike? Black and white confuse me because I get analytical about it. We all have a common genetic heritage so how can anyone claim to be 100% white, or 100% black, or 100% anything except human?

Ah, but the battle of the sexes! Men & women. Nope. Rewrite men and women as their chromosomes: XY and XX. You missed a few letters. XXX, XXY, XYY all exist too. How many sexes do we really have? How much of all of our debates are cultural or habitual instead of biological?

Balancing time and money isn’t always about the numbers. Efficient use of time isn’t always about schedules and plans. I’ve found free time by accidentally forgetting names and associations. Maybe I’m alone in this (I am single, hmm – pause – keep typing Tom and think about this later), but I try to see people are people, a person as a person. I can honestly ask, “So, what’s happening with you today?” Of course I have preconceived notions. Someone coming at me with a raised fist and snarling is going to get a label of whacko, or whackee. But usually, most people, even ones that slap labels on themselves, are individuals, even if they’ve temporarily made themself subordinate to an arbitrary group identity.

Now, if you’ll excuse me, I’d like to finish this and post it because the power has, at least temporarily, come back on. There’s no time to waste.

Where’d that rainbow go? Gotta go chase it.

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Short Comfort Zones

Posted on February 26, 2011 by Tom Trimbath

Ha! You investment types probably think I’m thinking about stocks. Nope. Believe it or not, I’m typing about fashion. My clueless approach to clothes has somehow become my definable style. I wear shorts. And I’ve even learned a lesson by doing so.

My island friends may not believe that I wore suits and ties back in my days of corporate battlegrounds, proper posturing before suppliers and partners, and general attention to cultural norms. But the contrarian in me didn’t simply fall into step with everyone else. Like a good engineer, I tested the effects of improving each element of my attire, except of course for socks and underwear. I’d heard that dressing well made a difference, but I didn’t want to jump from that assertion to complete acceptance of a provincial business wardrobe. I wanted proof.

Without any great fashion plan, I started at work in 1980 at Boeing by wearing business casual before the term was invented. I didn’t have the money for anything more than chinos, some button down shirts, and a few ties. My one suit dated back to my high school prom. Shudder. Soon enough I realized that my primary business contact was a computer terminal. It never provided an opinion about how I was dressed. I relaxed.

Several years later I was spending less time programming in dark computer rooms and more time out where the people sat. I’d saved up some money, got my Masters, and started getting more attention. Piece by piece I varied my outfit. Sneakers were replaced by boat shoes, which were at least leather, and then by dress shoes. People noticed. I did the same with belts, slacks, ties, sports jackets, and suits. Ties, shoes, and jackets made the biggest difference.

Keep in mind that I was working with engineers. Getting any response about clothing was a surprise, and the responses usually weren’t verbal critiques. I was treated differently. It was easier to get noticed in a meeting. It seemed that I got more smiles, nods and hellos. I don’t think they were aware of any change on their part.

I didn’t maximize the effect. It was a curiosity to me: one observed personally and in how others were treated. Eventually I settled on a set of informal rules. Ties were good for big internal meetings. Suits were very good on business trips, especially if I was alone in representing the company, even more so if money was involved. The rest of the time I was clean and tidy, but not pricey or fancy.

After I retired, and especially after I became single again, my wardrobe narrowed down to shorts, sweats, and Carhartts unless I was hiking or skiing. I gained just enough weight to not fit back into the long pants and suits. I wonder if that was subconsciously arranged.

Now I am known as the guy who wears shorts all year long. Actually, especially on Whidbey and around Seattle I’m usually not the only one.

That’s my new comfort zone. Wearing long pants is a concession to rare occasions, hypothermic conditions, or laundry day. The Sweetheart’s Dance was semi-formal; so, jacket and tie above the waist, shorts below. Wind, rain, and cold are only enough if at least two of them show up together.

Yesterday I was attended a conference. The world wants our help so we got together. The world, however, was passing through winter, mid-twenties in the morning, maybe above freezing in the afternoon, back down to twenty after dinner. I was in shorts. And I was comfortable.

Folks had fun with my fashion choice. I did too. But I learned something today (a good thing to have happen often). Our comfort zones are broader than we realize. Many people thought I that I must be cold. I wasn’t. I’ve worn shorts  enough that my body recognizes this as my new norm. My comfort zone covers a wider temperature range now. The people that told me that I was probably cold were wrapped in layers of down and fleece. They looked cold. They looked somewhat afraid of their environment. Their comfort zones were pulled tight around them. I honestly don’t know, but do wonder, if their bodies would adapt to a broader norm if they let themselves realize that the first chill is maybe only a shiver, that isn’t a threat to health, and that may lead to a wider world.

Our comfort zones are killing us. Maybe that’s an overstatement, but the planet might appreciate our efforts if we didn’t fight it so much. We don’t know if our impact has too great. Maybe the earth can heal itself. Maybe the damage is irreversible. Maybe we’ll find a way through this that works for both of us. Our biggest hurdle seems to be our fear of losing our comforts, or convincing others to shift theirs, or whether life will even be worth living. I think our comfort zones may give us more to work with than we realize.

Change can be coupled with fear. Even in a “normal” life change is inevitable. In addition to that, our ecological, financial, and political worlds are changing. Reacting with fear can result in us wrapping ourselves up tighter within our comfort zones just when we need to open ourselves to other possibilities. Hiding from the cold can work, because eventually spring returns. Unfortunately, most changes aren’t that cyclic and predictable. Many of the changes before us are once in a lifetime, and maybe once in a civilization. Reacting to every challenge will be exhausting, but as long as we test each change to see if it only affects an old familiar comfort zone and doesn’t threaten health or life, then accepting that small nudge may free us up to concentrate  on more vital issues.

Our lifestyles will change, and I now realize how much further we have to go. Wearing shorts when it isn’t even snowing? Shouldn’t even be noticed. Living a year without getting into a car? Kurt Hoetling did it, wrote about it, and learned a lot about himself and his world. Very doable. Scared of balancing your checkbook or figuring out your taxes? It’s only numbers, well mostly. Want to topple a regime? Now you’re talking real guts and heroism. With that kind of courageous excursion from comfort we can change the world.

I wonder how many of those men were wearing shorts.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Ignore The News

Posted on February 23, 2011 by Tom Trimbath

Lindsay Lohan. That’s already too many syllables devoted to that topic. Recently I got rid of my satellite service. No dish. No cable contract. No rabbit ears. All the news I get is from friends and from the stream. I wondered if I was missing out during the recent uprisings, but a friend told me that on the networks celebrity news continues to trump reality. Uprisings or upstarts, sometimes I tune them all out.

Lets start with investing and get that over with.

Ten years ago, the Wall Street Journal and Investor’s Business Daily were favored places to find collected information and data. After being retired for a while, I started watching CNBC, mostly for the ticker, but partly to see what they were emphasizing. Internet speeds improved. Relative to my computer, the newspapers’ data continued to cost money and were out of date by a day. As deregulation and the financial crisis began, CNBC’s coverage seemed to become politicized and parochial. Some of their commentary struck me as derogatory towards anyone that wasn’t rich and living within the sphere of the financial elite. Watching it was only tenable if I left it on mute. Then I realized that the little useful info remaining could be attained with less time, effort and stress by cruising Google and Yahoo, with occasional side trips to the discussion boards on The Motley Fool and Investor Village. I traded inefficiency and stress for focused and free information.

World, national, and regional events are fascinating and vital. We are in the midst of societal changes that are far from academic. The health care debate is treated as an abstraction while people are dying from lack of care. If those were war statistics the military-industrial complex would be charging The Hill (Capitol) with proposals to save those at risk. The debates are heating up, and that’s good. People are becoming engaged. Maybe we’re just taking a circuitous route to real solutions.

Sadly, I’ve been told that despite such vital circumstances, the news remains fixated on the frivolous. Again, I retreat to the web where I can watch the news in healthily chunks without wasting time pondering the products of the paparazzi.

It snowed here on the island yesterday. One day’s snow is not a world-changing event, but it swamped the local news and the Facebook feeds. Events were cancelled. People dropped into their cocoons. There was much worry afoot. I’m from Pittsburgh and I love to ski. Driving in snow is not that big a deal, unless the snow is happening at sea level and there aren’t enough plows for the streets.

Stress comes from within, but it can be fertilized by external sources.

Yesterday, amidst my litany of worries and concerns, I noticed my neck tightening, my posture curving, and my face reddening. Then I laughed at myself. Look around and see what’s really happening, right here, right now.

My neighborhood was green. The snow hadn’t stuck. I looked across Puget Sound at the whitened wilderness of Olympic National Park. A friend called to point out an exotic and experimental Navy ship zipping by. A mating pair of bald eagles were making their parallel flights around the bay. The power was on. I felt much healthier than this time last year. There was even a weather window when the wind died and the sun came out. I went for a run.

The biggest real disappointments were a postponed dinner with a friend, a cancelled dance practice (but it will be back next week), and a delayed shipment of a book that I wanted to read.

The troubles of the world continue. Progress is made or maybe lost. But it doesn’t need my continual attention.

It is good to be aware of the rest of the world, its people, its issues, and what each of us can do. I think it is equally important to be aware of the immediate world. There’s a limit to how much worry each of us can carry. My doctors have proved to me that it is too easy to surpass that limit and create another worry: personal health. But worry is only one way to define a life.

Is there a limit to how much joy each of us can carry? I’ve never had a doctor tell me that I’ve been having too much fun. Joy is not common in the news, unless it’s the first name of a celebrity. My best source of joy has always been in my personal experience: a dance, a dinner with friends, laughing at myself, hearing good news. Yesterday I heard that a friend had driven dozens of snowy miles and braved a ferry crossing all to help another friend. I smiled and applauded, though no one else heard it. Joy is easily found within community, but it is even better when it is within eyesight, earshot and arm’s reach. (Though I am impressed how many smiles YouTube has produced.)

I watch the news to be aware of the world. But if I want to enjoy the world, sometimes the best way is to ignore the news. Turn it off, shut down the computer, and go for a walk.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Poor To Rich

Posted on February 19, 2011 by Tom Trimbath

Unless we’re born wealthy, most people see themselves moving from poor to rich. That’s part of the American Dream. Anybody can make it with hard work and luck. Poor to rich also describes the way money flows, or doesn’t. I think there’s a lot of potential to move things the other way, from rich to poor. No reason for it all to only go one way.

If you read my previous post you already know that I spent time helping at the Global Social Entrepreneurial Competition, a student business competition hosted by the University of Washington’s Foster School of Business. Why do these things require so many syllables? Despite the long title the idea is simple. Can students sold the world’s problems? Well, of course they can, but most wait until they dive into their careers before taking on global issues like health care and poverty. GSEC makes it easier for them to start working now. I’m particularly pleased because this year two of my favorites won awards: Sanergy which tackles sanitation and energy, and Wello which makes it easier for people to get water.

One of the joys of retirement, or at least not being tied to a regular work week, is donating my time to such events. In proper fashion, the hosts conducted a feedback survey. Amongst a dozen or two questions they asked what I got out of the event. One of my responses was hope. It is impressive to see passion pointed at a problem coupled with pragmatic solutions.

The question made me realize that something was missing this time.

Recalling previous competitions, I realized that the businesses fell into three camps:

  • Selling things to poor people so they could live healthier or spend less,
  • Beginning businesses that allowed them to sell to each other, and
  • Establishing businesses for them that let them sell to the rest of the world.

More concisely the businesses were rich-to-poor, poor-to-poor, and poor-to-rich.

The greatest reduction of the gap between rich and poor, even without a business plan, is for money to flow from the rich to the poor. That’s been the basis of many charities, and is usually called donations. Unfortunately it is not readily sustainable. Large portions of fundraising budgets are devoted to raising funds precisely because the money flow is not self-sustaining. A few years ago, one of the GSEC companies, Kaite, was formed around the idea of Zimbabwe locals producing and selling soaps and oils made from native plants. The poor were selling to the rich. Some friends help run a business in Uganda called Bead for Life that produces jewelry from colorful recycled paper. The business is successful enough that the hundreds of bead makers are now able to build and own their houses. The business supports thousands of people. Money flows to people that can benefit from it greatly without using up local resources or diverting funds through innumerable intermediaries.

Which money transfer method is more efficient: traditional charity or local business? The business option, especially when the locals own it, is better for self-esteem. And I suspect that managing retail sales is more money efficient than fundraising.

Charities need other things than just money. A common mantra from some charities is, “Don’t give just us your money. Give us your time. It’s valuable too.” I spent three hours this morning clearing invasive holly trees from a land trust property. Whidbey Camano Land Trust definitely wanted volunteers for such grunt work. Grunting occurred. Scratches happen. Money wouldn’t make the problem go away. They need money too, but sometimes volunteer labor is handier though harder to find, especially on a frosty morning in February.

For me, balancing life and money hasn’t meant making a pile of dough and then lounging for decades. While I’d like to have more money, and have plenty of charities and initiatives that I’d like to fund, I am as likely to give my time as I am my money.

I do spend money. The way I invest and spend my money can be done in ways that help others, helps myself, and helps the planet.

I don’t buy much jewelry. I bought two of the necklaces basically for the fun of it. Jewelry isn’t my style. But I do buy local for wine, soap, tea, veggies, meat, liquor, and enough other stuff that  there’s no reason to lengthen this list. Whidbey Island has a diverse set of talented artists so even regular household items like rugs, glassware, cups, and cutting boards are local functional art pieces instead of mass-produced chunks of plastic.

So, here’s the fun part. Maybe a good way to contribute is to go shopping.

Shopping and consumerism are sometimes advocated as ways to spur the economy, but blindly buying brand name products isn’t nearly as efficient as spending a little more time to find something handmade, unique, and possibly a bit more expensive that puts money into the hands of an individual instead of the coffers of a corporation.

As money flows from rich-to-poor, people can flow from poor to, well, at least less poor. Look again at Bead for Life. Their motto is, “Eradicating Poverty One Bead at a Time.” People buying jewelry have resulted in thousands of improved lives and hundreds of homeowners. A business succeeded where charities hadn’t. Are the beadmakers poor? Poverty is relative. They are less poor than they were before. Are they rich? Maybe they aren’t buying condos in downtown Seattle, but you know that parts of their lives are richer than our culture.

The divide between rich and poor is most extreme when comparing “western civilization” with rural Africa and rural India, but there is poverty in America, and throughout the world. If nothing else, starving artists exist in every society. There is a lot of opportunity to go good and have fun doing it.

Poverty exists and charities are fighting it, but it can be somewhat alleviated by letting Americans do what so many Americans do well, go shopping. The American Dream, to rise from poor to rich, and while we’re at it, reach out and bring others along. That’s a very rich idea.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Substantial Story

Posted on February 16, 2011 by Tom Trimbath

A friend posted the query on Facebook, “What opens your heart?” My response was “another open heart.” One of my favorite things is listening to stories. From Garrison Keillor to a friend’s blog (Dave Day’s amazing life) to after-dinner chats with wine in hand. Story is what adds the subjective to the objective, and what makes the objective interesting. It is what makes investing interesting, at least for me. Story, more than any advice, is what sees me through my toughest days and helps me celebrate champagne moments.

Yesterday I was asked to be judgmental. The University of Washington invited me and dozens more to judge, catch breath, The Global Social Entrepreneurship Competition, more concisely known as GSEC. It is an international week-long competition between student teams. They present their business plans for improving the world. Why think small, eh? We judges listen to their stories told many different ways. In previous years I listened to their PowerPoint presentations. Yesterday I listened to their elevator pitches. The school suggests criteria, but effectively, we mock investors were asked to judge the teams the way we would judge any company. These aren’t play companies. The students are serious. Their goals are serious. Sustainable businesses that improve quality of life, health, and pull people out of poverty are built on passionate platforms. So, we were judgmental, and nice about it.

(Pity that I had to leave early, but intuition and serendipity proved it to be a good idea.)

I don’t know who won that round, and the finals aren’t over yet. I do know that I enjoyed talking to the teams. As an investor, one thing I looked for was whether they could tell me the story. Numbers are essential, but after the numbers I wanted to hear why they were doing it, why the customers, suppliers, and locals would want to participate, and whether they would pursue the business regardless of the competition and their education. Numbers can substantiate business plans, but they are based on assumptions. Stories tell me if they are sincere and passionate, and if the people in Bangladesh, India, or the Ukraine want to see them succeed.

Their stories and presentations are online at the GSEC web site, so I won’t repeat them here, but I will pass along a note about two of them. Sanergy, a company that improves human sanitation and turns the product into power, interested me because they turned a negative into a positive, and had a bit of fun with the presentation. It isn’t easy coming up with appealing graphics about a subject that is so graphic. Wello was the other one that pulled me in, partly because of the simplicity and usefulness of a device for transporting water; but what solidified my opinion was the way the presenter could listen to a question and then provide a concise and conversational answer. There was a why to the how.

Story is not enough. Story without substance is hype, or fiction. Story without balance is suspect, or fiction. Fiction is fine. It is the basis for literature, but fiction is best when it epitomizes a truth. Stories that are supposedly real, but that lack a foundation or that only tell one side are only useful to me if I can get a second or third perspective. It is one of the reasons that I use waffle words. Very little is certain and I like leaving open the door that acknowledges those other possibilities. Within the realm of writing, that detracts from the clear, definitive statement, but I think the clear, definitive statement is too often misleading.Take it to an extreme, only use clear definitive statements, and story becomes diatribe and the basis for shock jocks and overblown pundits.

Companies tell stories. It is usually in retrospect that we recognize hype or limited perspective. Investors though must listen to stories in real time and judge whether the story is complete enough. Dendreon (DNDN) has consistently told its story and received lamentations from the investors because the company didn’t expand the tale to include grand possibilities. I like their success, and each new bit of news improves their story. (I wish the stock would reflect that, but oh well, patience lad.) Microvision (MVIS) has a history of over-promising and under-delivering. The word “hype” was used frequently when describing the early CEO, so great things were expected from his replacement because surely the new CEO would be more grounded. Whether through intent, inexperience, naivete, or unfortunate circumstance, the new CEO’s story for Microvision’s future frequently falls shy of reality. If I can’t trust the storyteller, I don’t listen to the story, or I look for other storytellers.

I am in the midst of a story. Each of us is. Over the last few years there have been painful episodes. Many phone calls and emails have centered on unsolicited advice. What I’ve found most useful has been story. Many of my friends are well-educated in various health care modalities: traditional and not, professional and not. Such a breadth of advice means that much is contradictory. Stories have been the most useful. Texts are good resources, but personal experience is most appreciated. One friend advocated many different things and was slightly ticked that I didn’t try them all, yet was surprised when I picked one out of the mix and followed it. To me it was simple. That solution was supported by their direct experience in a situation that was similar to mine. They were surprised that I acted on it because they didn’t consider it advice, just a story. Precisely.

Fiction has its place (as I eagerly await some sci-fi in the mail). But listening to real stories, substantial stories, told with passion and at least a bit of humor and humility is a fine way to spend a day, or an evening, or a life.

Story is powerful. Tell me your story and make it real.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Golden Revolution

Posted on February 12, 2011 by Tom Trimbath

Egypt is Poland. In both cases change came from within, and the change came from a disgruntled populace, not from an opposition political party. After Poland changed, everything in the USSR changed. With Egypt and Tunisia  changing, what other countries will change? Was the US or India the initiator of change for the British Empire? It doesn’t matter. The change happened because enough people wanted it. In other countries people who aren’t actively challenging authority are at least aware of examples and history that proves change is possible. What could happen here?

People impress me. People, all of us, are simultaneously flawed and magnificent. A society can live in ignorance or repressed dissatisfaction for decades or generations, but eventually people say enough and change things. The sad part is the pain and injustice that occurs over those years and through those lives. The good part is that we tend towards justice and equality. I don’t discount the hurt. But when I say I am a long term optimist about such issues I’m looking at trends that are generational. Over spans that long, our progress has been impressive.

Information is the key. When people are aware that their problems aren’t isolated incidents, but are happening to their family, friends and neighbors, then they are more likely to solidify into a cohesive force. Poland benefited from Lech Walesa and others in the Solidarity Movement which existed because of a labor union. Evidently, the communication chain that inspired change was Lech Walesa hearing and passing along news throughout the shipyard. He was a repairman, so he went everywhere. The workers found a common spirit and changed more than they imagined. I wish I could find the study that mapped the subsequent revolutions and tied them to televised broadcasts. As one country was freed, the neighbors across the borders could pick up uncensored television and radio. The wave propagated, news then action.

Egypt and Tunisia are more modern. There will undoubtedly be sociology and anthropology PhDs handed out for investigating the role of Facebook and Twitter. Various regimes are fighting back, but news is progressively harder to contain.

I watch these progressions with the realization that they can happen anywhere. Even here in the US we’ve had a couple of political revolutions. Back in Pittsburgh where I was brought up, Memorial Day celebrations sprout Revolutionary War flags in the cemeteries. They are few, but they existed. But even there, The Revolutionary War wasn’t the only revolution. Just south of there was the Mason-Dixon line. The Civil War, or the War Between the States (depending on where you live) was political. Each side saw injustice and fought to correct it.

There are few countries where I would rather live, and those that I look fondly upon undoubtedly have flaws that I can’t see from here. I see many of our flaws as do many of us. I like Winston Churchill’s commentary on us:
“I want no criticism of America at my table. The Americans criticize themselves more than enough. “
We can take decades and generations to try to make things right, and most of the intervening time is spent arguing over what “right” is. We aren’t a quiet people. We will try to fix things. I also like another of Churchill’s observations:
“The United States invariably does the right thing, after having exhausted every other alternative.”

The recent financial crisis happened under the greatest scrutiny in history. Movies have captured it fictionally (Wall Street – Money Never Sleeps) and possibly factually (Inside Job). I say possibly factually because I haven’t seen the movie. Blogs, discussion boards, books, and talk shows have delved deeper. Enclaves of wealth and power that historically operated unseen are being brought into the light. The audacity of one aspect made the Jon Stewart interview of Jim Cramer legendary. Hundreds of billions of dollars were thrown at imploding institutions. We don’t have hundreds of billions of taxpayers. Per person, thousands of dollars were spent propping up failed and flawed businesses. People shouted and complained, and as we recover, Wall Street bonuses are blossoming as if nothing bad happened; even though the rest of the country sees unemployment, a disabled housing system, and massive federal debt – at the same time that some are asking for extensions of tax breaks.

I know people that are infuriated because it seems that the bad guys won.

I have faith in us. We are all talking about the situation. Any censorship we experience is mild in comparison to countries that overcame higher hurdles and found ways to pull together and change. We have regular elections, and while the two parties seem more interested in schoolyard squabbles and maintaining their privileges, we have many opportunities and mechanisms within them and without them.

This blog is primarily about balancing money and life. I tend to delve more into the money side of things because I think enough other people are telling each other how to lives their lives. Here, I try to limit such commentaries to my own experiences. I bring this topic up though because within each of these changed countries life and money were affected. Life typically is better, though can go through a painful transition. Money isn’t as clear of a story. In such circumstances money and power shift. Sometimes well. Sometimes poorly. The French had a turbulent time changing from elite privilege and entrenched monarchy to “Liberty, Equality, Fraternity”, but I hear France is now a fine place to visit. I still wonder about the shift in Russia from the Tsars, through communism, to where they are today.

What’s next here?

The US may never see a revolution like we’ve witnessed in Egypt. I hope though that we are in the midst of a Golden Revolution, where the interpretation of the Golden Rule switches from the cynical, “He who has the gold makes the rules.” to the original, “Do unto others as you would have them do unto you.” Historically, we are a self-reliant yet mutually supportive people. We can stand on our own, and are ready to led another a hand. That gives me great hope that any revolution we see here may be peaceful, powerful, and results in better lives for us all. Balancing life and money might just be a lot easier then.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Tangible Wealth

Posted on February 10, 2011 by Tom Trimbath

Scrooge McDuck made his wealth tangible by filling a room with gold coins and then diving in. Ouch. Doing the same thing with paper money is softer, but no less ridiculous. Do you know where all that money has been? Imagine the paper cuts. Most monetary wealth today is intangible. Even the phrase, “you’re only rich on paper” no longer applies because most assets are stored as magnetic patterns. There is considerable, tangible wealth, that isn’t in my wallet, and sometimes I have to remind myself of how rich I am.

I went for a walk the other night. My neighborhood is almost as quiet and dark as I’d like. We’re down here on the tip of the island, six miles from the highway. We aren’t on the way to anywhere unless you have a boat in our marina. A nighttime walk can be right down the middle of the road with no traffic and just enough street lights for a walker to connect the dots without disturbing the views of the stars or the clouds. I’ve said before that I think I don’t have “enough”. That was on my mind as I wandered the neighborhood.

Intellectually I know that I am wealthier than most of the people on the planet. I live in America well above the poverty line. I ponder having enough to sustain a happy, healthy, long life. The majority of the species is hoping to have enough for tomorrow’s meal. Logically I have nothing to worry about.

Emotionally I worry. Write a book about my personal finance (Dream. Invest. Live.) and such issues as enough and wealth are far less private, even without blogging. Despite the book and this blog, I’d have the same internal conversation. Part of my emotional response is tied to my mathematical appreciation for my financial situation. The numbers might add up, but nothing is certain and some highly probable events haven’t happened yet. So, I worry.

I am also an optimist and a dreamer. “What If” games are one of my favorite pastimes. As I strolled, I wondered. What would be different right now if I was rich? Years ago, when I first pondered that possibility, the answer came slowly and as a revelation. Now it comes quickly and with a chuckle. The answer is almost always “nothing”.

I was out for an evening walk. If I was worth ten million dollars (a man can dream) I’d probably be out for a walk. I’d possibly live in the same house and therefore the same neighborhood (I might own the adjoining vacant lots though.). The stars would look the same. The weather wouldn’t be any different. The neighbor’s dog stranded on a wintry porch would still be barking at me.

The same revelation came to mind while I was walking across Scotland in the Fall of 2010. It was Scotland. It was autumn. Why wasn’t I on some warm, sandy, sunny beach? What would be different if I was worth a lot more? I realized that I was walking because I wanted to. I was in Scotland for many reasons. Sitting on a beach is a nice stereotypical vacation, but I wanted to move not sit, and I wanted to walk hundreds of miles through a place that was friendly, safe, and comfortable. More money wouldn’t change the fact that most towns only had one inn. More money wouldn’t change the weather. Rocks would get in my shoes, and rain would fall on my head regardless of my bank account.

The other day I was day dreaming again while looking out at Puget Sound. I’m a space cadet, so I am aware of the desolation of every planet that our probes have visited. I put myself in the position of a galactic tourist who was given the opportunity to travel to the richest planet they could imagine. Then I looked at the view again and laughed. The forests, mountains, clouds, water were all rich in detail; and, the much of the richness wasn’t static. A tree is infinitely rich in detail because of its fractal nature. Temporally it changes from seed to maturity to termite dust. Expand the view to include its neighbors, overlapping but not intertwined branches, and the neighborhood populated with squirrels, crows, and the requisite termites. I laughed when I realized the richness of my view.

Such wealth is to be appreciated. It doesn’t fill the fridge or pay the bills, but it shouldn’t be discounted either. We overlook considerable wealth every day.

I don’t feel wealthy when I pay my bills, but am glad that I can pay them. I do feel wealthy though when I list my skills, my talents, my network of friends, my good fortune to be born in America, my lifestyle, my books, my photos, and even my work history as an engineer. There may be great chaos under heaven, but the situation is excellent – probably. I even feel wealthy when I look at my portfolio. It isn’t enough now, but I’m glad to have that much invested in good companies.

Most people I know are worried about money, even those with enough. One of the downsides of American culture is the problem Johnny Rocco had in Key Largo (a fine Bogie and Bacall movie).
Frank McCloud: He wants more, don’t you, Rocco?
Johnny Rocco: Yeah. That’s it. More. That’s right! I want more!
Our culture frequently teaches that more is never enough. Resisting that societal pressure is difficult, but highly beneficial.

Of all the people I know who worry about money, I am impressed the most with the ones that have an idea of what enough means for them, that they are invested in something, and are positive about their possibilities while being realistic about risk and their situation.  That level of understanding is more than mathematical. Understanding enough and understanding risk means understanding self.

The greatest wealth is in appreciating what you already have within you and around you. The old axiom is that the best investment is in yourself. That usually refers to education or entrepreneurship, but I think it extends to an appreciation for experience and connections. The most tangible wealth that I know of is each other and this planet. Reach out and touch someone – and go for a walk.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

When To Sell

Posted on February 8, 2011 by Tom Trimbath

When to sell? When you want to. When you need to. Okay, let me be more specific than that, even though those two short sentences are wonderfully concise. Of course, I am talking about when to sell stocks; but, the topic applies to many aspects of life. Remember that line from The Matrix? “Everything that has a beginning has an end.”

Deciding to start an endeavour can be a colossal chore and event. Sustaining it and maintaining the process usually takes less effort. It’s like having a pile of rocks delivered to your house. You know you want to build a rock wall. Deciding which Saturday morning to devote to it may take months. Finally trying to budge one of them takes a lot of grunting and sweating, but after it’s moving, it may roll along on its own. Knowing where and how to stop it though is what’s required for getting what you wanted.

I started investing decades ago, so those first hurdles are long cleared. Recent economic realities mean that my plans for a life of secure comfort have been delayed. So it goes. But effectively, by having invested in stocks, I’ve set a lot of energy in motion. Granted the motion is currently slow, and sometimes rocks back and forth, but things are moving and they are, in general, heading the right way. Some day I will have built a life that is even better than the one I enjoy today. For that to happen though I have to keep in mind that at some point I’ll probably have to sell at least some of the stocks. Knowing which stocks to buy is an exercise in imperfection. Knowing when to sell them is equally daunting.

I’ve had many reasons to sell stocks.

I no longer believe the company will succeed. (Sad, but true.)
I think another company is more likely to succeed. (Sad, but true.)
I think the stock’s price is far above it’s probable value. (Maybe they’re right, but I’m out of here.)
A stock position is large enough to possibly, dangerously unbalance my portfolio. (Not always a bad thing.)
I’ve made enough money. (I haven’t actually done this yet, but I’m hoping.)
Sometimes I have to sell just to pay some bills. (A very common occurrence.)
That last scenario exists throughout the market and is the reason why there is almost always a seller in every stock and why every stock has a tendency to drift down if there isn’t uplifting news.

Allow me to point out some specific wording: believe, think, possibly. These are waffle words, subjective judgments. I have few definitive statements to make about selling, or investing for that matter. Without being able to predict the future everything is, at some level, a guess. The main thing that isn’t a guess is having to pay the bills. Even “having enough”, sustaining a desired lifestyle, is a guess because it involves guessing that desires and realities won’t change significantly. Also note that I didn’t use the word taxes. I’ve only sold for tax purposes a few times and each time the sale was coupled with one of the other scenarios mentioned above.

I’ve sold when I thought the company would not succeed. Sometimes I did that after everyone else realized it and I lost a lot of money. Oh IRIDF, why didn’t I listen to my friend’s comments about your debt load? Sometimes I did it early, when something about management, logistics, marketing, or competition was unsettling. I liked HOOK very early, until they made a deal with Anheuser Busch that seemed counter-productive and they decided to expand into the northeast without appreciating that region’s different labor culture. I got out at about the right time then. I’ve also jumped out because of management changes. I sold AAPL when they kicked out Steve Jobs. That story’s more complex.

I’ve sold when I thought other companies would succeed. Competition happens. That’s been especially the case with computer hardware and software. Dynamic industries may eventually include icons, but during their early growth spurts many more companies sprout and either wither, fade, or get absorbed. Anyone else remember Massachusetts Computer Company?

I’ve sold when I thought a company’s stock exceeded its value. I did that with FFIV. I was wrong because I misinterpreted one of their annual reports, but I acted upon the math, not the emotion. Fortunately, I didn’t sell everything that time and a stock that I bought for about $5 went to $90. I sold when it had grown ten-fold and made a down payment on this house, my favorite home. Since then FFIV has split and closed recently above $126, or $252 adjusted for the spilt. Such is investing. I didn’t make as much as I could have, but I made a very nice return and got something very nice in return.

Anyone that was invested during the Internet boom prior to the bubble can recall stocks that far truly outstripped the value of their companies. Exuberant investing may be hard to recall, but exuberance is a human emotion heightened by social contact, that can take any issue beyond logic and reason. I’d like to tell some marvelous tale of selling at that peak, but I was in there with the rest. I sold some there, but bought others. Partly from exuberance, partly from personal doubts mixed with the possibility that others knew better, and partly from relationship communication issues, I didn’t sell and hold. Lessons learned. I hope.

Selling to rebalance my portfolio has occurred so often that the examples are too many to mention. Usually though the sale happens from an unbalanced portfolio coupled with one of the other concerns or the desire to use the proceeds for bills or a house downpayment. Even now, with DNDN representing the majority of my portfolio, most of my DNDN sales have been to pay bills; though there have been a few slivers shaved off to buy into other positions that are downtrodden (MVIS, RSOL). Selling high in one stock to buy low in another is a marvelous way to grow a portfolio, but care is required because there’s never a guarantee that the purchased stock won’t go lower.

The clearest sell signals I’ve received have been from acquisitions and mergers. I invest in small companies. Sometimes they are bought by much larger companies. Pixar was bought by Disney. Lands End was bought by Sears. QFC was bought by Fred Meyer, or was it Krogers? My life is easier when I am only trying to track simple companies. Pixar made animated movies. Disney has that plus theme parks, television networks, and enough divisions to warrant hours of research. I sell when the stories get too complicated. Besides, the success of a small company can drive its stock price rapidly, but the same success can be lost within a behemoth. I’ll take the greater gains and leave the greatest gains for the professionals and the greedy.

Buying stocks is one possible first step to making money (and remember that losing it is also a possibility), but for me the goal isn’t financial excess. My goal is a sustained, healthy, fun, and long life. Selling the stocks wisely after buying them wisely, with a bit of luck thrown in, is how that can happen.

PS After I wrote this I realized that I covered this in more detail in the chapter titled “Managing and Harvesting” in my book, Dream. Invest. Live. Some topics can always be repeated.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment