Dammed Plans

Posted on February 29, 2012 by Tom Trimbath

Dam. Dam. Dam. That’s about as close as I get to swearing. DNDN went back down another 20%. MVIS did too – on the same day. I thought it was more likely that DNDN would pop 20%. I had plans. I’ve had to dam up my optimism for that plan, that plan, and that plan. Dammed, reserved, optimism is better than letting events deplete the hopes for positive possibilities. But in the meantime I am delaying some repairs, paying off my credit card debt more slowly, and watching a vacation turn into a camping trip turn into a staycation. I’m not giving up, but I am developing a dam full of plans. If we have a collective consciousness, is it doing the same?

It’s been a long time since I had good financial news show up and stick. I’m glad to see that the general market is doing well again, though I think it has a long way to go to get back to normal. Unfortunately, my idea of normal is based on the 80s and 90s, not the post 9/11 norm. We continue to recover from the Dismal Decade. I’m beginning to see hints of the Decisive Decade, but many expectations are based on steering extrapolations of pessimism rather than pursuing optimism. With a social mindset of picking between various versions of bad it is possible that we will create a self-fulfilling prophecy. That would be sad globally and it may mean that my personal investing strategy may be undermined. I’m an optimist. I think I am out of style, at least within the financial realm.

Imagine being wealthy. I’ve been there. I liked it. I learned that I am not much different with over a million than I am with a half or a quarter of that. I was frugal before then, during those times, and continue to live that way. I think that finances fall into phases based on a few categories: improvements, maintenance, repairs, and sustenance.

When there was “more than enough” it was easy to embark upon improvements. Everything else was taken care of and optimism was given a responsibly free run. One project at a time please. That spreads out the spending and allows time to take on the task and enjoy it. Do it well, or at least well enough, and then leisurely do the next.

When there was “enough” there was a balancing act. Bills and such were paid as they came in, and improvements were stretched out or showed up as upgrades during repairs. There is no true “enough” number that is good for all time because there is no way to predict the future. “Enough” is calculated based on assumptions of income and expenses. Windfalls happen. So do unpleasant surprises. It was a comfortably uncertain time.

When there was “almost enough” optimism encouraged dreaming – dreaming because it was cheaper than doing. Bills were paid, but expenses were watched and income was sought. Maintenance is a good idea, because it is usually cheaper than repairs. If things go just right there will be “enough” money, so in the meantime, store those plans somewhere handy and don’t do anything fancy.

Lately, the drops in DNDN, MVIS, AMSC, are sometimes understandable and sometimes not. The news for those three comprised my Triple Whammy last August and the tale that many of you have read or heard about since then. In times like these, expenses are cut back dramatically. Improvements are undertaken if the supplies are free. Maintenance is set aside with hopes that there won’t be a need for repair. Repairs that arise are approached with resourcefulness and ingenuity, or with painfully large bills. I feel sorry for my friend who had one critical appliance die three times in the last three years. Some things can’t be fixed with duct tape.

And yet I am an optimist. Granted that is frustrating, but I see a few ways in which I can return to “enough”. The less I have the harder that is; but, the longer I’ve worked the more likely I’ll return. I’ve got networking and that 10,000 hour rule working for me. Now a bit of good luck can have an enormously positive effect.

I think that’s true of our society as well. We have variations on what’s enough. As my favorite weather professional puts it; “If world population was a steady 2 billion people, then we would not be talking about global warming.” I suspect similar data points exist for food production, water usage, global economies, resource use, waste disposal/recycling, etc.  We don’t have a sustainable balance, and are having a rough time imagining how we can get there. Many plans are put on hold. Explorations in space, our oceans, and our wildernesses are curtailed. Maintaining infrastructure has been delayed enough that some repairs are too costly and are ignored. I can think of a bridge or two that won’t be replaced. There are doubts that some governments aren’t sustainable. That may sound abstract, but it is real and some of their citizens will be in the same situation as a result.

I am not broke. I have money. I have enough to pay all of my bills (though not pay off my mortgage unless I sell the house). If I was only interested in the present I could even take an around-the-world cruise, but I am not interested in living the dream for only a day. I want to live long and prosper. To do that I must tend what I have and use what I’ve got, including my time, talents and skills, and keep the door open for luck and windfalls. So, I’ll delay a few things a while longer, giving optimism and hope more time to lend me a helping hand.

I hope that we, as a society and a civilization, do the same. Some organizations are more interested in living for this quarter or this term without thinking about the next generation, or our species’ future. My hope is that the rest of us decide to steer towards enough, working smartly and collaboratively. Maybe with a bit of luck our efforts will bring us back to where we can open the dams and let the optimistic plans flow again.

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Waiting For The Boil

Posted on February 25, 2012 by Tom Trimbath

Except for the lottery, much of life’s success and progress takes time. For planning purposes, we live in a linear temporal universe. Maybe cause doesn’t have to precede effect. Maybe there’s a way to know how this will all turn out. My intuition tells me that I’ll exceed my expectations and I should just relax and enjoy. That’s an assurance that is hard to believe when it is tough paying the bills. So, I wait, maybe for only a couple of days, maybe longer. It is Saturday. On Monday, Dendreon (DNDN) and Microvision (MVIS) report earnings. Maybe on Tuesday my financial situation will be much improved.

Investor Village‘s message boards are my favorite sources for community commentary about DNDN and MVIS. Some other sites have too much traffic. Spam and flame wars rule. Other sites are so sedate that weeks go by without a cough echoing the empty posts. The DNDN group is talking about earnings, analyzing projections, and performing sensitivity analyses – with a side of speculation of expansions and acquisitions. The MVIS group is talking about the opposite. Specifics about Microvision are hard to find, because their financial data are somewhat moot. Their recent earnings are so far from the levels projected for some future product release that most investors ignore the details and spend more effort considering product and supply scheduling, intellectual property value and infractions, and the probabilities of buyouts or bankruptcy.

I look forward to writing about the results, but there’s nothing else to do but wait. But watched pots do eventually boil – as long as there’s enough heat and the pot doesn’t leak.

Long Term Buy and Hold (LTBH) is an investment strategy that requires patience. There’s another version that requires ignorance or apathy called Long Term Buy and Forget. That sounds silly but so many have taken that to an extreme that estimates of the value of forgotten shares are in the billions. LTBH takes advantage of the fact that good or bad news can happen at any time and that generally, good companies are eventually valued appropriately.

“Generally” because it doesn’t always happen, or happen in time.

“Eventually” because when it does happen, there was no guarantee that it would happen before, with, or after the good news.

Three years ago DNDN was trading at less than $4 while Dendreon awaited the FDA decision about Provenge, the first prostate cancer vaccine. Provenge could revolutionize fighting cancer because it was more effective, cheaper, and had fewer side effects than the traditional cancer treatments. It is a vaccine, so it cleverly retrains the body’s immune system to do the work. It is also a technology that could work against many other cancers. The present value of all of those future revenues (discounted for risk of course) produced very high valuations for DNDN. Everyone guessed but no one knew if the FDA would approve Provenge. Everyone guessed and no one knew what would happen to DNDN. Two years earlier a scandalous FDA reversal popped and then dropped the stock. The possible felonious actions are still debated, and maybe someday prosecuted if you listen to the Deep Capture people. The FDA did eventually say yes. By mid-summer DNDN was over $24. A year later it doubled past $48. I looked forward to having “enough” and maybe more. And then, one earning report last August dropped the stock 80%. So much for having “enough” – at least for a while. Yet, the treatment looks like it works better than expected, and the main growth issues are logistical rather than medical. Maybe Monday’s news will rebuild confidence within the investment community. As I sit here, I don’t know.

Until their stock split last week, MVIS was trading at less than $1. Now, after a 1-for-8 reverse split, MVIS is trading at about $4. As I wrote and cross-posted to The Motley Fool, Investor Village, and Silicon Investor (sometimes I like to shout a little louder and see who’s out there listening);
“Microvision’s value is unchanged, with a modification each day as we creep closer to that hoped-for significant event that is countered by daily cash flow and encroaching competition. I think Microvision should be valued much higher based on present value of future revenues discounted for risk, but apparently the market is using a much higher risk discount; otherwise, the price wouldn’t have dropped so low to prompt a delisting notice.”
The stock price changed by a factor of 8, for a while. The company value remains the same, or at least its valuation. The valuation is the guess of the company’s value, which is supposedly reflected in the stock price, generally, eventually. I’ve been watching Microvision since I bought shares in 1999. The demand, the heat, seems to be potentially great. A radical technology that revolutionizes electronic displays can have global consequences and immense profits. But the pot couldn’t get near the fire for a while because the technology hadn’t been invented. Now the pot may be ready and may be getting closer to the fire, but the entire process is taking so long that too much money has leaked out in the process. At last year’s stockholders meeting the CEO announced that eyewear was the foundation of the company’s first strategy, but it has slipped because finding appropriate transparent content is difficult and it needs a better user interface. Last week Google’s eyewear hit the news. It isn’t using Microvision technology. But Monday, maybe Monday, pure speculation from me is that the report will bring news that someone else will use Microvision technology to compete. Maybe we’ll finally hear about a major product being released into the public and from under the secrecy wraps of an NDA. Maybe we’ll get quantifiable news and my stock will allow a more quantifiable response to my bills. Or, maybe it will be more of the usual generalities and projected eventualities.

Within my own business sometimes I have to wait for the boil and sometimes I can turn up the heat or find a different pot. I’m expanding my Modern Self-Publishing class by teaching over in Seattle (feel free to pass along recommended venues). I’m having fun creating more exposure by uploading videos to YouTube. I continue to give talks and exhibit art. But as a writer I also know that some things can’t be rushed. I can write quicker, but books are sold by readers reading and then telling their friends to read. I can’t rush that process. Word-of-mouth, the most powerful advertising tool, runs at its own speed; and I let it because it is so powerful.

LTBH is powerful too. Maybe other strategies can make more money. I think the various strategies overlap so much that luck can explain many performance differences. But LTBH spends the least time, and time is valuable, and time is powerful, and time can’t be rushed. This morning I boiled some water and made some tea. That boiling is complete. I guess now I’ll take a break and enjoy its result, a cup of tea, while I wait for my other pots to boil.

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Work Is Cheap

Posted on February 22, 2012 by Tom Trimbath

Busy? Daily. Working hard? Definitely. Fixing up the house? Not really. Want a vacation? Oh yeah. Gonna get one? Well, yes, as soon as the hard work that is keeping me busy begins to pay off. When money is tight, home projects are put on hold and cheaper tasks are taken on. It turns out that work is one of the cheapest ways for me to spend my time.

As recently as last July I considered myself semi-retired. I didn’t have “enough” but it looked like I would get there soon. Check DNDN’s chart if you want to see when that comfort zone vanished. I’m not the only one financially traumatized by that event. (See my post Triple Whammy for details.) It is hard to imagine getting back to those levels again, but I’m an imaginative guy. Besides, Microvision can finally succeed (though if that’s true, why did MVIS reverse split now?). AMSC could reclaim their previous revenues. Real Goods Solar could get back up to book value, which would double RSOL. Throw in a proper premium for their revenue growth and RSOL climbs higher. Geron could release good clinical trial news. My only OTC stock, GGOX.OB, could get the recognition, and possible index upgrade, appropriate to their revenue growth. Oh, and it turns out that most of Dendreon’s problems were exaggerated. Provenge works better than expected and the reimbursement issues are being resolved. DNDN could recover its June price and original growth, with a bit of a slide in the chart – though that slide cost me a significant comfort margin in my retirement plan. Oh well, bad timings happen. Good timings can happen too, I just don’t know what they are right now.

I retired about 14 years ago, but have never fit the mold of sitting on the porch for days, or velcroing my butt to the couch in front of the television. First I taught karate. Then I did the bike ride, which led to writing, which led to photography, and along the way I started teaching classes and performing shows, which made some people aware of me enough to hire me as a consultant for their lives or businesses. There’s always more than enough charity work. I overdosed there until I limited myself to a simple model: one local charity, one global charity, with widely-spaced, uncommitted, additional volunteer work. I’ve always been busy. Some say I never gave up work.

If I trust solely to intuition and trust in my investments I don’t have to look for other sources of income. The money will be there. But there’s a prudent side of me that points out that applying for jobs doesn’t cost anything. Besides, there is interesting work that needs to be done, and some of it pays very well. This appears to be an excellent time to invest. I very familiar with at least six stocks that I think are undervalued (see previous paragraph), and am amazed at some of the house and land values available. There’s some property outside Waterville, WA that is within even my strained credit card’s reach: 12 acres for under $11,000. Used sailboats, even ones big enough to live-aboard, are even cheaper. Cruising the listings on craigslist.org and yachtworld.com is fun. This is a time when cash is king, and why some folks always have some saved.

For me, that cash is gone. I’m selling my stocks to pay my bills. That has been the case for years, and is actually the ideal, as long as those stocks are worth enough to pay the bills from the growth instead of the core. Oh well, I’ve been here before in my life and come back better each time.

Some people imagine that I should be taking vacations or working on home improvement projects. I like their ideas. Unfortunately, it is very frustrating to begin planning a project and be stymied by cash. Fix the fence = cash. Expand the garden = cash. Remodel the kitchen = cash. Even walking vacations = cash. That’s a daily, and even hourly, mental machination.

Unconsciously, I steered myself to activities that didn’t cost much. Volunteering happened. But in addition, welcome to the life of the accidental entrepreneur and artist. Writing costs the least. Photography doesn’t cost much either, after the camera is bought and as long as it’s digital. Teaching classes costs a bit of rent. Social media makes advertising and marketing affordable. I’ve even teamed up with some friends to create videos of Whidbey Island and Washington’s Cascades.

My persistent activities are a part of who I am. I enjoy sitting, but I also enjoy moving. Remember that my most recent vacation was my walk across Scotland, which I enjoyed more than any trip to a sunny, warm beach. All of this work that I’ve fallen into hasn’t paid one month’s mortgage – yet. For the most part the business is paying to expand the business. By following my intuition, by doing work back when I was semi-retired and work wasn’t necessary, I’ve developed an artistic and professional foundation that may be my job, that may produce my own paychecks. Work is cheap, but I am spending time, which is valuable, and producing artwork that others value too. I’m learning skills and developing insights that I pass along through teaching and consulting. As a result, I enjoy the work I do and I value the life I live.

I blog to write about investing and living. Investing can become a trap that separates a person from life. Conversely, living without considering how time or money are spent is a life that may not be sustainable. In this blog I present myself as an example, not an expert, of following intuition (call it a dream if you want). I am fortunate. My investments aren’t doing well, but they did well enough to allow me to retire at 38 and spend over a decade adding other talents. Those stocks may allow me to regain my semi-retired or retired status. The time I’ve spent since retiring is also an investment, that has paid off with a burgeoning business. Others may not be as fortunate to have a cash cushion. People without jobs may not have money, but they do have time. But as an encouragement to replace the frustration, I wonder what will be produced by that time that can be spent and invested? Each person has their own answer. But one thing I know is, done right, work is cheap- and very valuable.

(Play is cheap and valuable too, but that’s another post. This post was long enough.)

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Presidents Say

Posted on February 20, 2012 by Tom Trimbath

There was a lot I wanted to get done today, but it is President’s Day. I thanked the calendar for the break, and the opportunity for procrastination. I also grumbled a bit about being able to get some things done because of the official holiday. (Really, no dancing? Rats!) A couple of us joked about how all of the presidents are lumped into what was Washington’s and Lincoln’s combined birthday parties. Then I realized that some of them should be celebrated too. Why not have one day for all of them? Of course, I don’t think we should shut down the banks for that reason, but we can at least acknowledge that they were smart (most of them) men (no women so far) doing their best in circumstances that are best judged from their perspectives, not ours. I applaud their efforts, well, except for a few that make me go huh!? Andrew Johnson got elected?

I decided to read a few of their quotes, decided not to leave any of them out, and found myself launched into this long post of copied wikiquotes (wikiquote.org).

Somethings stood out.
1) They said a lot.
2) The farther back they go the better they said it.
and
3) there were many common themes:
– Thank God I’m out of office.
– God and government should be separated.
– Government is for the people, not the elite.
– Peace is preferable to war.
– Wealth carries responsibilities.

They said a lot more and I encourage Americans to read a few and dive into their official (non-wiki) histories. We got here because of them. Thanks guys. (Okay, now about electing a woman – Hey Oprah . . .)

GEORGE WASHINGTON
“My manner of living is plain. I do not mean to be put out of it. … Those, who expect more, will be disappointed, but no change will be effected by it.”
“Make the most of the Indian hemp seed, and sow it everywhere!”

JOHN ADAMS
“The only maxim of a free government ought to be to trust no man living with power to endanger the public liberty.”
“Let the human mind loose. It must be loose. It will be loose. Superstition and dogmatism cannot confine it.”

THOMAS JEFFERSON
“I hold it, that a little rebellion, now and then, is a good thing, and as necessary in the political world as storms in the physical. ”
“I had rather be shut up in a very modest cottage with my books, my family and a few old friends, dining on simple bacon, and letting the world roll on as it liked, than to occupy the most splendid post, which any human power can give.”
“The care of human life and happiness, and not their destruction, is the first and only legitimate object of good government.”
“Every difference of opinion is not a difference of principle.”
“If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, in a state of civilization, it expects what never was and never will be.”
“Ridicule is the only weapon which can be used against unintelligible propositions.”

JAMES MADISON
“The man who is possessed of wealth, who lolls on his sofa or rolls in his carriage, cannot judge the wants or feelings of the day-laborer. ”
“A standing military force, with an overgrown Executive will not long be safe companions to liberty.”
“Religion & Govt. will both exist in greater purity, the less they are mixed together.”
“If men were angels, no government would be necessary”

JAMES MONROE (unsourced)
“Our country may be likened to a new house. We lack many things, but we possess the most precious of all — liberty!”
“The best form of government is that which is most likely to prevent the greatest sum of evil.”

JOHN QUINCY ADAMS
“To furnish the means of acquiring knowledge is … the greatest benefit that can be conferred upon mankind.”
“Courage and perseverance have a magical talisman, before which difficulties disappear and obstacles vanish into air.”

ANDREW JACKSON
“It is to be regretted that the rich and powerful too often bend the acts of government to their selfish purposes.”
“The wisdom of man never yet contrived a system of taxation that would operate with perfect equality.”
“Take time to deliberate; but when the time for action arrives, stop thinking and go in.”

MARTIN VAN BUREN
“I tread in the footsteps of illustrious men… in receiving from the people the sacred trust confided to my illustrious predecessor.”
“All the lessons of history and experience must be lost upon us if we are content to trust alone to the peculiar advantages we happen to possess.”

WILLIAM HENRY HARRISON
“The only legitimate right to govern is an express grant of power from the governed.”

JOHN TYLER
“Popularity, I have always thought, may aptly be compared to a coquette – the more you woo her, the more apt is she to elude your embrace.”

JAMES K. POLK
“Thank God, under our Constitution there was no connection between church and state.”
“One great object of the Constitution was to restrain majorities from oppressing minorities or encroaching upon their just rights.”

ZACHARY TAYLOR (Not a very talkative fellow – according to wikiquote.)

MILLARD FILLMORE
“An honorable defeat is better than a dishonorable victory.”
“Let us remember that revolutions do not always establish freedom. Our own free institutions were not the offspring of our Revolution. They existed before.”

FRANKLIN PIERCE (unsourced)
“Frequently the more trifling the subject, the more animated and protracted the discussion.”
“The storm of frenzy and faction must inevitably dash itself in vain against the unshaken rock of the Constitution.”

JAMES BUCHANAN
“What is right and what is practicable are two different things.”

ABRAHAM LINCOLN
“The probability that we may fall in the struggle ought not to deter us from the support of a cause we believe to be just; it shall not deter me.”
“Discourage litigation. Persuade your neighbors to compromise whenever you can. Point out to them how the nominal winner is often a real loser — in fees, expenses, and waste of time.”
“Those who deny freedom to others, deserve it not for themselves; and, under a just God, can not long retain it.”
“We all declare for liberty; but in using the same word we do not all mean the same thing.”
“I do not like that man. I must get to know him better.”
“…no man is good enough to govern another man without that other’s consent.”
“With public sentiment, nothing can fail; without it nothing can succeed.”
“— and that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth.”

ANDREW JOHNSON (I couldn’t find a quote I liked, and then noticed that he was impeached. Hey, the system worked!)

ULYSSES S. GRANT
“The war is over — the rebels are our countrymen again.”
“I rise only to say that I do not intend to say anything.”
“Leave the matter of religion to the family altar, the church, and the private school, supported entirely by private contributions. Keep the church and the State forever separate.”
“Although a soldier by profession, I have never felt any sort of fondness for war, and I have never advocated it, except as a means of peace.”
“It is preposterous to suppose that the people of one generation can lay down the best and only rules of government for all who are to come after them, and under unforeseen contingencies.”

RUTHERFORD B. HAYES
“Abolish plutocracy if you would abolish poverty. As millionaires increase, pauperism grows.”

JAMES GARFIELD
“The world’s history is a divine poem, of which the history of every nation is a canto, and every man a word.”
“Next in importance to freedom and justice is popular education, without which neither freedom nor justice can be permanently maintained.”

CHESTER ARTHUR
“Madam, I may be President of the United States, but my private life is nobody’s damn business. ”

GROVER CLEVELAND
“Public officers are the servants and agents of the people, to execute the laws which the people have made.”
“A truly American sentiment recognizes the dignity of labor and the fact that honor lies in honest toil.”

BENJAMIN HARRISON
“We Americans have no commission from God to police the world.”
“I pity the man who wants a coat so cheap that the man or woman who produces the cloth will starve in the process.”

WILLIAM MCKINLEY
“War should never be entered upon until every agency of peace has failed.”
“Let us ever remember that our interest is in concord, not in conflict; and that our real eminence rests in the victories of peace, not those of war. ”

THEODORE ROOSEVELT
“Probably the greatest harm done by vast wealth is the harm that we of moderate means do ourselves when we let the vices of envy and hatred enter deep into our own natures.”
“Far and away the best prize that life has to offer is the chance to work hard at work worth doing.”

WILLIAM HOWARD TAFT
“We are all imperfect. We can not expect perfect government.”
“The world is not going to be saved by legislation. ”

WOODROW WILSON
“We are not put into this world to sit still and know; we are put into it to act.”
“I always remember that America was established not to create wealth . . . but to realize a vision, to realize an ideal. ”
“If you think too much about being re-elected, it is very difficult to be worth re-electing. ”
“Friendship is the only cement that will ever hold the world together. ”
“If I am to speak ten minutes, I need a week for preparation; if fifteen minutes, three days; if half an hour, two days; if an hour, I am ready now.”

WARREN HARDING
“Our most dangerous tendency is to expect too much of government, and at the same time do for it too little. ”

CALVIN COOLIDGE
“If all men are created equal, that is final. If they are endowed with inalienable rights, that is final. If governments derive their just powers from the consent of the governed, that is final. ”
“Nothing in the world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent.”

HERBERT HOOVER
“Older men declare war. But it is youth that must fight and die.”

FRANKLIN D. ROOSEVELT
“Happiness lies not in the mere possession of money; it lies in the joy of achievement, in the thrill of creative effort.”
“No business which depends for existence on paying less than living wages to its workers has any right to continue in this country. ”
“The test of our progress is not whether we add more to the abundance of those who have much; it is whether we provide enough for those who have too little.”
“I have seen war. . . .  I hate war.”

HARRY TRUMAN
“Some of my best friends never agree with me politically. ”
“On tight money: It reflects a reversion to the old idea that the tree can be fertilized at the top instead of at the bottom — the old trickle-down theory.”
“It’s a recession when your neighbor loses his job; it’s a depression when you lose yours. ”
“My favorite animal is the mule. He has more sense than a horse. He knows when to stop eating — and when to stop working.”

At which point I took a break. There are a lot of Presidents and they said a lot of interesting things, but ouch, I have to go lay down for a while.

“In this shrinking world, it is futile to seek safety behind geographical barriers. Real security will be found only in law and in justice.”

DWIGHT EISENHOWER
“I hate war as only a soldier who has lived it can, only as one who has seen its brutality, its stupidity.”
“Should any political party attempt to abolish social security, unemployment insurance, and eliminate labor laws and farm programs, you would not hear of that party again in our political history.”
“Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed.”

JOHN F. KENNEDY
“For of those to whom much is given, much is required.”
“A man may die, nations may rise and fall, but an idea lives on. Ideas have endurance without death.”
“Conformity is the jailer of freedom and the enemy of growth.”

LYNDON JOHNSON
“I do not find it easy to send the flower of our youth, our finest young men, into battle.”
. . . and a bunch of quotes that include language that I won’t have on my blog. And I am glad he knew how to use Freedom of Speech.

RICHARD NIXON
Fascinating, but wow, nothing I feel like repeating.

GERALD FORD
“We have come tardily to the tremendous task of cleaning up our environment.”
“I have not sought this enormous responsibility, but I will not shirk it.”
“A government big enough to give you everything you want is a government big enough to take from you everything you have.”

JIMMY CARTER
“The most serious and universal problem is the growing chasm between the richest and poorest people on earth. ”
“War may sometimes be a necessary evil. But no matter how necessary, it is always an evil, never a good.”

RONALD REAGAN
“It is time for us to realize that we’re too great a nation to limit ourselves to small dreams.”
“The future doesn’t belong to the fainthearted, it belongs to the brave.”

GEORGE BUSH
“Think about every problem, every challenge, we face. The solution to each starts with education.”

BILL CLINTON
“The road to tyranny, we must never forget, begins with the destruction of the truth. ”
“Yesterday is yesterday. If we try to recapture it, we will only lose tomorrow. ”

GEORGE W. BUSH
“I love freedom of speech. ”
“The peaceful transfer of authority is rare in history, yet common in our country. With a simple oath, we affirm old traditions and make new beginnings.”
And yes, it was hard to not be distracted by the malapropisms.

BARACK OBAMA
“Let us reach for the world that ought to be — that spark of the divine that still stirs within each of our souls.”
And I’ll leave space for more. He’s not done yet.

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Response Ability

Posted on February 18, 2012 by Tom Trimbath

CEOs are paid well. Their pay represents their responsibilities. Most employees are paid for their work. Corporate executives are paid to make the right decisions. The buck stops there. Many bucks do. I wonder if the money flows up out of habit. Lots of work is getting done, but without a similar raise in workers’ salaries. Meanwhile, executive compensation has risen enormously, especially in the top 1%, but I think there have been fewer rather than more right decisions being made.

A friend took me out to lunch today. It was a rare treat. We’re both entrepreneurs, also known as small business owners. Recently his business has been doing better than mine so lunch was his treat. We also both worked in the corporate world decades ago. Many of our friends are still there. We also are invested in some of the same companies. We’ve witnessed a lot of administrative maneuvering that had little to do with managing the company.

Our businesses keep us busy. The work is emotionally gratifying, but the financial side of the compensation is not enough to keep our cars maintained. Our corporate paychecks were massive in comparison, but both of us burned out from an environment that drained us. I don’t know how busy a CEO’s job is, but CEOs and each of us only have 24 hours in a day. We doubt that they are working that much harder. The poorly managed nature of some of the businesses suggest that many aren’t even making the right decisions.

Responsibility is a frequently used term, but I think we’ve lost sight of its base meaning. Responsibility is the ability to respond. Many jobs are equipped with responsibilities. CEOs aren’t the only ones that must be able to respond. And being able to respond is merely the lowest requirement. Except in extremely locked down procedural bureaucracies, even workers are required to respond appropriately. It is one of the characteristics of emergency workers. Firefighters are very responsible people. If the ability to respond appropriately was compensated similarly, firefighters would have much bigger houses.

Responsibility is used to describe the person who takes the blame. If something fails, the responsible person takes the blame. But I think a truly responsible person is not simply a public scapegoat. And, even if that was the case, a public scapegoat probably shouldn’t be paid more than someone who is actually doing work.

I am most impressed with people who treat responsibility with integrity. They sincerely try to make the best decision, and they also step aside if it looks like someone else could make better decisions. A CEO is responsible for maintaining or improving shareholder value. Maintaining and improving shareholder value does not imply massively compensating a CEO and entrenching them in their job, especially if the company is not doing well. It may sound like a fantasy that someone would step aside because they saw that others might do a better job (it happens in Japan, but please skip taking it to the extreme of ritual suicide). We’ve even had a president that knew that getting the right things done was more important than his political career. President Polk‘s example is so uncommon that we ignore him and his ethics.

Many small business owners, artists, and advocates are aware that they be active, engaged, and emotionally rewarded for their hard work; while not making enough to live. The same is true for responsible people like police, firefighters, teachers, nurses, and alternate health care providers. Oddly enough, the majority of people work for companies that have more than 500 employees, large enough to encourage bureaucracy and to distance employees from the customers they are responsible for. But at least they are more likely to be paid well and receive benefits. Another self-employed friend pointed out that after 17 days of having to work while sick, because if he stops the business and the money stops, ” . . .  how horrible it is to not be working for a company with benefits…like sick days and regular pay. ” Take that step further up the corporate, or even the political, ladder, and arrive at jobs that seem to compensate good and bad decisions, with rare consequences. Such an inverse relationship is not healthy or sustainable. In some ways it is very feudal.

Feudalism wasn’t sustainable. Responsibility and hard work are eternal and essential. I’d like to write about significant trend that suggests our major institutions are heading towards paying for true responsibility, and that integrity is practiced. I can’t. CEOs leave, but only after massive losses that affect the majority of their employees and shareholders. Politicians can be voted out, but the duopoly perpetuates incumbencies. I do however, see a small trend amongst individuals. The 99% are asking for responsibility and integrity, and are willing to work. I am most impressed though with those that are taking responsibility for their own lives. Whether that is moving off the grid, growing their own, or actively living a more frugal life there are people who are responding to their personal values with integrity. They may not change everything immediately, but they may be our role models for demonstrating personal responsibility.

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Who Gets It

Posted on February 15, 2012 by Tom Trimbath

Whitney Houston fans bought over 100,000 copies of her albums after her death. That is a tribute literally paid too late. Sad to say, but rewards aren’t always paid to those who did the work. Estates can become perpetual based on an ancestor’s efforts. Corporations can profit from dead companies. Politicians can claim credit that should go to advocates. The best way for the artist, the entrepreneur, the social innovator to be thanked for their efforts are for the rest of us to say thank you now rather than later. That’s our job, and our opportunity.

I won’t pretend to be a fan of Ms. Houston. I don’t know enough about her or her work. I enjoy dancing, but I remember names like Tommy Dorsey, Benny Goodman, and Duke Ellington. My favorite music was created decades before I was born. Any homage I pay to those artists goes to their estate, their reputation, their distributor, their industry, and maybe to their spirit if they can hear me from the afterlife. By my own logic I should concentrate more on finding living artists and appreciating their efforts, and buying their music. I do a bit of that (thank you Jamie Cullum and Jimmy Buffett) , but I am frugal enough that I listen to free music.

Ms. Houston’s estate will be well-funded. Hopefully some philanthropies will benefit. Many charities rely on bequeathments. I just spent the morning clearing resurgent blackberries from around recently planted saplings at Hammons Preserve, a Whidbey Camano Land Trust property created at the direction of Mr. Hammons. What was a farm is being returned to a more natural state, with open space reserved for some great views. Money, land, and stock are frequent items in wills, but intellectual property can also be a valuable heritage.

Inventions, books, songs, anything with a copyright has the potential to enrich others. Tonight I’m teaching my class in Modern Self-Publishing. One of the issues I bring up is, “Who is the work’s beneficiaries?” If one of my books suddenly begins to sell well after my death, I want to make sure that the profits go to something I support, even if that is as simple as directing it to family and friends rather than a publisher. Thoreau probably didn’t see the majority of the profits from On Walden Pond, especially because it hasn’t stopped selling.

What happens after an artist dies is moot to the artist. They’re dead.

What matters to an artist that is trying to survive from their art is what happens while they are alive. Most struggling artists look forward to not struggling. Compliments are fine. Sales are better. I am more likely to buy local art because I recognize the direct impact it has on a person and their community. Off-shore mass production diffuses a local economy. That may be why the world’s societies are in such great change. Internal supports have been weakened or removed and replaced by external supports like interconnectivity through globalization.

Within the corporate world ideas follow a similar fate. Entrepreneurs, inventors, innovators may start up companies that succeed, but they are more likely to fail for lack of support. Their ideas can continue though. Microvision, a story stock I mention frequently, is well-known for having many good ideas. Their ideas for electronic displays are so positively disruptive that they could redefine the industry. Yet, the company is probably going to undergo a reverse split to avoid delisting (Splitting Stocks) because they don’t have the cash position and the subsequent stock price to maintain full listing on the NASDAQ. An entire suite of their ideas for another technology (electro-optical switching and organic materials) was spun off into another company, Lumera, which was bought and merged with another company, GigOptix (GGOX.OB), which is now producing profits from those idea. Microvision doesn’t benefit from the success. They settled for the cash from selling the stock back when they were in a crunch. Reach back far enough and there are inventors that preceded all of the companies that may only benefit from their initial cash payout, or maybe only from a sense of satisfaction that their ideas are being pursued. At least within the investing world I can track these stocks and invest in them, but those investments are swung by the cash, or lack of cash, that the companies experience prior to becoming profitable.

It happens in government as well. Legislation is passed with politician ceremonies, but I recall learning that civil rights, women’s suffrage, and abolition were initiated by citizen activists. Yes, they may be mentioned at the ceremonies, but the beneficiary is usually society and the politician with the pen. The people who did the work try to pay the rent with thanks.

Our society is imperfect. No surprise. Yet I am encouraged because we are getting closer to appreciating people for what they do and when they do it. Five hundred years ago great efforts would rarely be recorded. Now it is at least possible to trace back to origins and originators. Historically, most creative and productive people can be too busy creating and being productive to spend time getting noticed. The few that were paid well enough may have been lucky, or very aware that it would unlikely for anyone else to do that for them. Of course, some were simply self-centered and totally devoid of humility. Fifty years from now it may be impossible to totally lose sight of who deserves the credit because everything is being recorded and made searchable.

Whitney Houston’s death and subsequent sales have made me reflect on thanking and acknowledging the people who are here now. Of course, not everyone is an artist. Money isn’t everything. And sometimes a compliment is enough, and more than they’ve ever received. What an interesting way to look at the day, “Today I’m going to hand out a reward. I wonder who gets it?”

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Distributing Wealth

Posted on February 11, 2012 by Tom Trimbath

Tonight’s Powerball lottery is worth ~$325,000,000. That’s enough money to go around. Did you bring enough to share? Win that lottery and you could give everyone in the USA $1, shipping and handling extra of course. We lose perspective on such large numbers. Join me as I dive into databases. (Make sure you check out the disclaimer at the bottom.)

Win Powerball and receive, over thirty years, 325 million dollars. If we colored in every state affected, then all fifty would be painted, and our territories would be too. We forget Puerto Rico too easily.

Win Powerball, take it all in one payment, and receive ~$202,000,000; which is about what Mitt Romney is worth. You could run for President of the United States, if you were born here and meet all of the other requirements. Finally you’d be able to either do things your way, or at least say you tried. Want to have more fun? Load up Stephen Colbert’s SuperPac with $200,000,000 and keep $2,000,000 for your more personal enjoyment. Or go back and pay $1 to every resident of every state except for California, Texas, New York, and Florida. The rest of the map would still cover a lot of land and represent a lot of people.

The poorest person on the Forbes list of the 400 richest Americans is worth about $1,000,000,000. They could give American $3. Forty of them could give every human $1. Eighteen of them could give everyone $2. Nine of them could give everyone $3. Bill Gates could give everyone $8.

So rich is rich, and it can spread a far way, but $8 doesn’t sound like much, unless you’re in one of the twenty five countries where the per capita income is less $1,000. A large portion of those populations could readily use $8.

But follow the story when we get closer to the middle.

The median net worth in America was ~$93,000. Start handing out dollar bills and forget the postage. Pick the right city and you can find 93,000 people within a couple of square miles. Charity begins at home, because sometimes that’s all the farther it can reach.

If it feels like your reach is far less than the Koch brothers (one is worth $4,000,000,000) don’t be surprised. Only about 80 Americans have greater wealth.

Net worth doesn’t get distributed this way, though I suppose someone could write that into their will. That would be interesting and entertaining. Most of the extreme net worth is tied up in investments, which would plummet if there was a massive sell order. Most of the moderate net worth, like those people around the median, are tied up in real estate; which is not exactly a happy market for sellers right now. (But buy my house for today’s zillow estimate of about $280,000 and I’ll be happier.)

Taxes must be paid, or accountants and lawyers hired to keep from paying taxes. Net worth numbers are rarely as useful as the same bank account balance.

And then there are the really big numbers. There are millions of Americans, but the US government operates on trillions of dollars every year. The 2011 Federal Budget, and yes I’ll capitalize Budget, was about $3,800,000,000,000. Did you notice that extra set of three zeroes? The Federal Debt is even bigger, $15,300,000,000,000. But then again, the US Gross Domestic Product is ~$14,580,000,000,000. I had to pause and count the zeroes because I didn’t believe it myself. Please double check. There are only ~300,000,000 Americans, and that’s counting the kids. We talk about unemployment so much that I have a hard time finding employment numbers. But it is the employed that are ultimately paying the taxes to run the government. Allow me to guess at about 100,000,000 workers and the individual worker’s load is $38,000 in taxes – that is if we were fully funding the government. But we’ve been spending more than we make for so long that our accumulated debt of 15 trillion dollars is $153,000 per worker. America’s possible saving grace is our GDP which is about the same as the debt, but we can’t use the GDP to pay the debt. What’s worrisome is that the median annual salary is ~$26,000.

I suspect that the enormous wealth and cash flow that is the US government is why so many wealthy people lobby to affect its spending. Of course, the idea of representative government is that the representatives should represent everyone, but that idea seems to be quaintly dismissed as impractical.

I draw some conclusions, but am more interested in playing with the perspectives and possibly sharing some insights. Each of us gets to draw our own conclusions. It is a free country, with some hefty price tags, maintenance charges, and cash flow possibilities.

There are an infinity of ways to slice such data. I don’t have a need for that. I stare in wonder at the situation. I will, however spend much more time wondering what to do with my lottery jackpot (because of course I will win, eh?) I’ve got a ticket that could pay $2,800,000 and another with better odds of paying $640,000. The latter is nearly “enough”. The former is more than “enough”. I can think of plenty of ways to distribute that wealth.

(Note: This is not a consistent set of data. I’m sure some government agency has everything available, but cruising their web sites is a contorted navigation through efforts at complete disclosure that are so pedantic that I’d have to understand their arcane language before getting a number. How many people are employed? It is easy to find the percentage unemployed but the simple number for employment is buried in some pdf or search string. That’s why I had to rely on wikipedia et al. Sorry for the inaccuracies, but hopefully the relative perspectives are correct.)

PS For a wonderful time, perusing such data, check out xkcd’s “cartoon” about money. I suspect he worked from a more consistent set of data – and style.

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A Bow To Drewslist

Posted on February 8, 2012 by Tom Trimbath

I bow to drewslist. I kowtow and offer obeisances, or at least I send Drew Kampion a check for about 10% of what I make through his very local service. Drew runs an email list that sounds innocuous yet is more powerful than any social media or advertising campaign that I’ve used. One man, with the right mindset, resources, talent and skills can be a positive influence throughout a community. How does he do that? How can each of us do that? I don’t know, but I’ll keep trying.

A while back someone called me a facebooker extraordinaire. Cool title. Maybe something to put on a business card. My skills are humble compared to some of my friends who sustain fascinating lifestyles based on their web presences and the resulting personal networks. One photographer friend (Kris Krug) gets a portrait gig with the Dalai Lama. A friend (Steve Smolinsky) who’s a corporate culture consultant is becoming recognized as an expert on African affairs (not the romantic kind) possibly based on his blog. Jeff Vander Clute (@jvanderclute) seems to live in, for, and from social networks. Social media’s power is so new that society has yet to fully incorporate it into our civilization and institutions.

(Coincidences happen: As I type this, a east coast friend (name withheld because I don’t know if she wanted to be mentioned outside her Facebook circle) made a post on her Facebook wall about what it would be like to become an herbologist. I sent a PM back, linking her with some friends who own an herbal apothecary and included a link to their web site. I sent them an email to make the introduction. Twenty years ago, the same information and networking exchange would’ve required long distance phone calls, snail mail before it was called that, brochures, typed letters of introduction, and weeks; which is why it probably wouldn’t have happened.)

Despite my efforts with facebook (friend me!), twitter (follow me at @tetrimbath), Google+ (+me), and Linkedin (lets connect) drewslist has been more successful at filling my classes and selling my art. There’s no need to google drewslist. It isn’t a web site – yet. Drewslist is an informal, unofficial, free community service created, produced, and operated by Drew Kampion. That’s a name that google finds results for. Drew compiles a set of emails almost every day. Each email is essentially a different series of user-generated ads. Last night’s batch (Drew does this in the middle of the night) were for:
Housing Report
Health & Healing
Jobs, Services & Help
Events
Art, Artists & Galleries
Miscellaneous
Usually I have at least one item listed, sometimes it’s business, sometimes it’s personal. Last night’s included a notice for a slideshow I am performing on Friday night at a local commons. (Twelve Months at Penn Cove at South Whidbey Commons, free and at 7PM) The previous night had a class notice for Modern Self-Publishing. Over the weekend there was a gallery note for my photos at Taste for Wine. He has a simple user’s guide. If you live on Whidbey, get on his email list, put together your notice and send it to him. Be relaxed about when it shows up. There is such a thing as island time. Also be ready to be surprised because he might improve the notice, catch errors (he is a professional writer and editor), and he might post it at a time that works better.

Why not simply use craigslist? Because drewslist is based on community. Anyone can cruise craigslist, which is nicely egalitarian, but it is also fertile ground for spammers and thieves. If someone sees my notice on drewslist, there’s a good chance we know each other or have mutual friends and acquaintances. Anonymity disappears. Integrity regains its importance. Drewslist is the truly social network that matches needs with wants, connects and concentrates passionate advocates, and announces celebrations and ceremonies.

And he doesn’t charge. He asks for and needs donations, and I am happy to contribute my 10%, but asking for donations also acknowledges that when someone is selling an heirloom it might because they are unemployed and the sale will pay for a propane bill or a prescription. As my situation improves I look forward to improving his situation.

Altruism is honorable, but I also am impressed because it works. I’ve tried selling things on eBay, but without luck. I’ve sold things on craiglist and made money, but I also met scammers and even two folks who probably used the opportunity to case my house. I post my classes and art notices on facebook, twitter, google+, Linkedin, and on my web site with some success. Drewslist has been more successful than all of them. One person offering a free service has done than four multi-billion dollar corporations.

I am an optimist, and am frequently challenged by people who demand that I defend my optimism. Pessimism has been too powerful for too long. I think recently it has been a self-fulfilling prophecy. People who decide to personally take positive actions can be incredibly powerful. Incredible means hard to believe. I’m glad that I can believe it, and I am glad for evidence of what one person can do.

Clint Eastwood’s Super Bowl ad was for Chrysler, but it was really for America. It cheered me to the point of tears. I feel sad, and a little angry, for those who tried turning it into a battleground. I take the example of Drew Kampion and the attitude and message from Clint’s ad and am proud of people and eager to see what we, not our institutions, but what we people can do.

PS: One of last night’s drewslist notices was for someone advertising their services as an eBay reseller. I love the way the world flows around and back onto itself.

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Old Age Classics

Posted on February 4, 2012 by Tom Trimbath

It’s Super Bowl weekend! I’m reading The Aeneid. The Super Bowl costs millions of dollars. A billion seems reasonable considering how many people will watch and eat and drink. My copy of The Aeneid cost $16 and will last much longer than four quarters of a football game. I know, I’m in the midst of a literary geek moment, but I read the classics to see how we have and haven’t changed. The Aeneid only cost me $16, but the original Olympic games probably weren’t cheap, and the Trojan war definitely bankrupted nations and sent men on journeys of emotional recovery that lasted years. At least most folks will recover from the Super Bowl within days. And there have always been people willing to take on risk for reward.

Allow me to display my ignorance. I’d never heard of The Aeneid until Brad Pitt starred in Troy. I knew about The Iliad, which is about the Trojan War, but I hadn’t read it. I’d read the Odyssey, which is about the Greeks’ and Ulysses’ trip home from the war, so it was natural and easy to read both and get the whole story. Except that I’d missed The Aeneid, which is about the Trojans’ fugitive journey. After any such conflict there are two sides. According to the authors, Homer and Virgil, both sides had a tough time recuperating – and both sides spent a lot of time sailing around in the Mediterranean. (Didn’t these folks realize they could have walked there quicker?) I’m glad someone suggested that I complete the set.

Life over two thousand years ago was short and a struggle, but they dove into their struggles passionately. The honor and glory that the soldiers sought are reflected in today’s football players. Most of the Greeks hoped for riches. That part’s the same. The Trojans just wanted the Greeks to go away. That part’s different, but the difference is between a game and war, not a difference produced by 2,000 years of attempts at improving civilization.

Our ancient ancestors’ lives were driven by fear and greed, the same things that drive the investment world. Even back then, most wanted just enough or a bit more while a few could never have enough. I suspect that Paris, the guy who seduced Helen, another man’s wife, could’ve made a better choice for everyone by holding back on the coveting. He was a prince. He probably didn’t have any trouble getting a date. Instead they started a war, Paris was killed, Troy fell, and we end up with epic tales of lives gone awry for years (with some unconvincing happy endings from my point of view). We’re witnessing something similar today. Most people want enough and maybe a bit more, but some people want so much that everyone else is affected, and the recovery may take years.

Some things have improved. We get more of a voice about things like wars and excessive greed. Things can get out of control, but we also have societal mechanisms for pulling them back. As much as I am not in favor of our various wars and financial deregulations, I also know that I haven’t fully exercised my personal authority by running for office. The Greeks may have started this democracy thingie, but even they didn’t give everyone a voice. The decision to go to war with Troy was not unanimous. I think we’ll fix the things that started our current mess. It will take time, but at least it will happen.

We are also more aware of our world, and less likely to misinterpret cause and effect. The reach and speed of information is marvelous. If we want to know something there’s a good chance we can find answers. (Thank you wikipedia.) Causes are less likely to be attributed to omens. An eagle carrying a snake probably won’t start a war. In comparison, our debate over the causes of global climate change are in a much tighter range (though with 7,000,000,000 people we can also have a few folks much further out than before). Effects are harder to discern because we are more interconnected. A war in the vicinity of Troy is a topic for debate, argument, and taxes in North America, but the original Trojan War didn’t bother the Mayans.

Life before the Romans was more self-contained. Farming was just transitioning from subsistence to surplus (though they weren’t aware of the long term impact of cutting down their forests to plant grains.) A farmer could maintain a sustainable life with a small plot of land. That is becoming true again as technologies and efficiencies make it easier to go off the grid. The difference is that now such a life can be lived while also being aware of the rest of the world.

Yes, our ancestors wore togas and sandals, covered themselves with oil, wouldn’t have understood homophobia, and purposely and regularly spilled wine and ox blood as offerings; but they also were driven by the same emotions we feel and had the same biological needs.

Ancient armies balanced risk and reward. Plunder fueled nations. War wasn’t the only way to advance wealth. Farmers prayed for bountiful harvests. Businessmen traded for profit. The rare master artist or craftsman could live very well with the right patronage. Plunder may be a subconscious motivation, but it is no longer a consequence of war. If it was, then the price of gasoline would be much lower. Farmers still pray for bountiful harvests, or at least a favorable bump in the futures market. Businessmen are more regulated now than then, though I think some de-de-regulation is due; and a businessman can now be a woman. I’m not sure the arts have changed. Virgil died while in the midst of editing The Aeneid, and it was published contrary to his wishes; though his wishes were that the poem be burned, so maybe it was good that they ignored him.

I think we, as a society, are maturing. Yes, multitudes will live their lives within narrow borders and won’t look beyond their horizons, but more people now are aware of the world, the rest of the people, and are reassessing values, lifestyles, and changes. Some will reconcile their relationship with money (and of course I recommend the 9-Step Program championed by New Road Map Foundation.) Some will investigate alternative lifestyles like zero-carbon footprint or living off the grid (which are not the same thing.) Many will simply recognize that old habits, conventional thinking, following anachronistic institutions are all worth considering changing. Maybe in two thousand years people will look back and recognize this era, the era of our efforts, as the classic beginning of a new age. Maybe I should write a book about that.

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Empowered People

Posted on February 1, 2012 by Tom Trimbath

Pardon me as I take a break from my writing to write. I’m writing a lot. I’m not alone. The number of writers is increasing. The barriers to publishing are falling. I haven’t found a way to invest in this trend except to participate. I haven’t found a stock to buy, but I can spend my time and possibly generate a profitable return. Power to the people – and in this case, opportunities to the authors!

As a individual stock investor I watch trends. Trend spotting is an imperfect art. Some trends I’ve caught nicely: coffee via Starbucks (SBUX), digital animation via Pixar (was PIXR now DIS), online communities via America Online (AMER then AOL). Other trends I missed or found too late, or thought I found too late and subsequently avoided but could’ve profited from: online book sales via amazon (AMZN), DVDs in the mail via Netflix (NFLX), the resurgence of the Mac via Apple of course (AAPL – and I owned it before Steve Jobs was kicked out, and sold in protest). Some trends seem systemic but I can’t find a way to invest in them. How do I invest in Stephen Colbert?

And then some trends happen so close to home, are such a part of my life, that it takes me a while to recognize them even as they occupy much of my day. I am a writer and an author. I’ve written and self-published more than five books, and have produced five more. After I’d written and self-published the first three I taught a class in self-publishing. Very few folks attended. In the mid-2000’s there was a stigma against self-publishing because to some it was proof that a writer wasn’t good enough to be picked by a publisher. I started self-publishing because I took encouragement from the positive rejection letters. My goal was to connect with readers, and a few hundred dollars gave me that opportunity. Now my classes tend to fill and are happening every month instead of only every year.

I also know that people have found my writing to be informative, entertaining, inspiring, and engaging. Positive rejection letters are nice, but compliments from people who’ve actually read the entire book are better. Knowing that I inspired someone is amazing. Knowing that I can write was a pleasant surprise.

I’m not the only one learning that I can write. As I point out in my class and book, both called Modern Self-Publishing:
“More titles  were printed by Print-On-Demand than by traditional publishers. (2008)”
Digital technology is creating a revolution in the publishing industry similar to the digital revolutions in movies (Hollywood challenged by indie films) and music (record labels challenged by garage bands).

I’m lucky enough to benefit from the changes by publishing my books and by teaching my classes. Society is benefiting because more information and perspectives are being shared without being constrained by the industry’s gatekeepers. Many of our old ideas and conventions do not serve us well in our current environment. New ideas and perspectives will solve some of our problems. We need them. To paraphrase Sandra Rodman from her class in Right Brain Writing, “There is a great desire and need for creativity in large established organizations.”

The consumer, patron, reader is the only definitive judge of a creative work’s usefulness. Many people have been inspired by Shakespeare and Star Trek, both of which were entertainments, but both have influenced our culture and even our technology.

I’d like to invest in the business side of self-publishing, but I’ve yet to find a company with a compelling business model – except for the combination of amazon + kindle + e-books. Send me a note if you know of a pure-play, a publicly traded company that does nothing except self-publish. I can, however, invest in the trend by investing in myself because this is a trend based on self-empowerment.

Besides my classes, the simple and direct way I am participating is by continuing to write. My walk across Scotland could be turned into a travelogue, but the book will equally be about the internal mental journey. I witnessed how much of my life is driven by shoulds and how easy and elusive it is to live it by joys. Stay tuned. Draft two is complete with at least three more drafts to go. Others are writing for similar reasons, though with different tales.

The main benefit from self-publishing isn’t whether my books sell or my classes remain full (though I celebrate sales and full classes). The main benefit is the unleashing of creativity. Traditional publishing does a good job of guarding the literary standards, and hopefully making a profit for the publishing company. Self-publishing may not meet the same standards, but its goal is different. Most of the self-published authors I know are more interested in spreading the word than making money, and each gets to define what they think the word should be while possibly making a profit too. The main benefit will be the results of positive improvements in our society – messages relayed by people and individuals instead of institutions and corporations.

Last Saturday an article popped up, “Why Every Entrepreneur Should Self-Publish a Book” by James Altucher. He is an author who is prolific, traditionally published, and self-published. I recommend the article, and I also recommend thinking beyond entrepreneurship. Entrepreneurs can profit from becoming an author. Advocates can spread their words beyond family, friends, and immediate community. And people who have something bottled up that needs an avenue and a release now have an outlet that is within their control. Some may even publish and not tell anyone, just to get the words out there. Investing In Self has always been one of the more profitable investments.

I profit by investing in stocks (though that takes some convincing some days). I benefit by recognizing trends. But I am also enthused by the personal empowerment of crowds of individuals, expressing themselves. Imagine the benefits from the sustainable, renewable resource that is empowered people.

PS And if you want a bit of help stepping into the world of writing you know you can send me a note, but don’t forget groups like Whidbey Island Writers Association and their Conference the first weekend in March.

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