Butterfly Wings

Posted on August 22, 2012 by Tom Trimbath

Thanks to Wynn Allen for reinforcing the power of butterfly wings. Fans of chaos theory know the reference. In a chaotic system it is possible for something as seemingly inconsequential as the flap of a butterfly’s wings to ripple and resonate and amplify and cause monstrously consequential hurricanes. Chaos theory doesn’t try to predict the impact of a butterfly flapping east instead of west, but it does attempt to explain the predictability of some systems. The more an expert learns, the more likely they are to know when the rules break down and when any estimate becomes nothing more than a guess. That’s true in weather, investing, and much of life. That’s also where optimists find hope and a source for solutions.

I have great sympathy for weather forecasters. We expect a scientific prediction of the highs and the lows, whether it is going to rain or snow, whether it will be windy or calm. Until the last hundred years the best guesses were the home barometer and sailors’ rules of thumb.
Red sky at night, sailor’s delight,
        Red sky at morning, sailors take warning.
It turns out that much of that weather lore eventually has proved to have a scientific explanation. For a while it seemed like the meteorologists would find a reason for everything and they’d be able to eventually publish a year’s weather, just like the Farmer’s Almanac. Such predictability reaches back to when we thought the world was a mechanistic wonder. Know enough about the machine and be able to predict its every movement. The weather doesn’t work that way. Small differences in our understanding of today’s conditions can result in large differences in the forecast for next week. Better data makes for better predictions, which is why east coast weather is easier to predict than west coast weather. A forecaster in Pittsburgh can check thousands of weather stations across a continent. A forecaster in Seattle only has a few ships, planes, and buoys delivering data. But even perfect data isn’t enough. Any forecast beyond five days is basically guesses based on historical climate and climate is currently rewriting history. (Cliff Mass’ excellent weather blog describes many of these aspects.)

Before science the world was mysterious. With science it began to make sense and we extrapolated to expect everything to be predicted. The world seemed deterministic. It was supposed that with knowledge about every particle’s position and momentum it would be possible to predict the future of everything. Free will was gone. As science has advanced, the people at the leading edges of research find the feathered boundaries of the unknown and unexpected. It is sad to see them faulted for their admission of imperfection without being given credit for the vast areas encompassed by the expanded borders. They become the subjects of jokes because an experiment went awry or because last year’s explanation is refuted by this week’s discovery. Scientific honesty and humility is taken as as sign of weakness and incompetence. Maybe that’s because more of the population is learning through the Information Age that the world isn’t as simple as we would like and they want someone to blame. A desire for certainty is one reason for a retreat to dogma.

Rationally we know the world is complex. Mathematically it would appear that any system that is dynamic, non-linear, coupled, and with too many unknowns can not be predicted. We don’t know that a hurricane was caused by a butterfly’s wings, but we also can’t disprove it.

The stock market is complex. Some claim that it is predictable and that it operates on cause and effect, yet it is also recognized that emotions of fear and greed play major roles. My investment philosophy and strategy is based on trusting the trends of product development and revenue growth to be larger than the chaotic variations that tend to operate within shorter periods. Daily, or even quarterly, ups and downs can become insignificant when compared to the years or decades of growth that companies can experience. It is commonly known as Long Term Buy and Hold (LTBH).

Oh well, so much for that strategy. The aberrant behaviour in some stocks, particularly DNDN, run counter to that trend – at least for now. As the company’s technology and revenues have progressed the stock has gone down. Some see influences larger than butterfly wings at work. Conspiracy theorists have an ample supply of causes for the contrary effects. I haven’t seen proof, but I admit that financial deregulation and an SEC that is either lax or overwhelmed could provide motivations and incentives that appeal to unethical or immoral individuals. I doubt that flash crashes are natural. The amount of money being spent to trim milliseconds from trade executions is proof of how far some will legally go to make money without concern for value or consequences. (Check out Wired Magazine’s Raging Bulls article – How Wall Street Got Addicted to Light-Speed Trading.) It isn’t hard to imagine others finding ways that are more devious and less reliant on obvious massive infrastructure. Sadly, such numbers games cripple innovation and solutions just as we need them.

I’d be more philosophical about the stock market if my investments could ride through such turmoil and undue influences (Turtle Investing) but having my stocks fall without other significant sources of revenue means I am selling cheap stock and rapidly diminishing my portfolio. At this rate I have less than a year’s living expenses remaining. (Anyone want to buy my home or hire me?)

And yet I maintain optimism. For every butterfly that caused a hurricane there may be just as many that kept things calm. Butterfly wings can be positive things. That’s one reason why I do things like make videos of local tourist towns (Two Guys Walk Around Langley, Coupeville, Port Townsend), give talks, produce art, participate in at least a half dozen collaborations (unpaid), and write this blog. My world has not been acting as I expect. I thought I had a good plan. I still think I did and do, but I will admit to imperfection. Of course, maybe I just had bad timing. Maybe some butterfly flapped its wings without knowing what it would do to me. Conversely, maybe some small thing I do will have positive consequences far beyond my expectations that maintains and sustains a thriving lifestyle for me. Maybe some other butterfly has already flapped its wings and the good news is rippling my way. It is a chaotic world. There’s no way to know.

My garden attracts hummingbirds. Maybe I should plant something that attracts butterflies.

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Busy Busy Busy

Posted on August 17, 2012 by Tom Trimbath

How are you? Busy. What are you doing? Scrambling. Is that working for you? Stay tuned. Some small businesses I know are busier than they’ve ever been. Life is getting busy. Friends have less time to chat. I’m working almost every day. It’s summer and I don’t think I’ll manage to get to hike until after Labor Day. With all of that busy-ness it would seem that people could take more time from their business. I asked a few the taboo question. How is the money side of things? The answer explains why few are booking vacations. But, eventually all of that effort will pay off, right?

I was in Coupeville last night. It’s one of the main tourist towns on Whidbey. They’ve got a historic main street, an intriguing wharf, a quiet moorage, and occasional orcas. I was there for an interview. Nope, not a job interview. That saga continues. (My Jobs Report Month 11) I was there for a radio interview: Kathy Baxter’s “Spirit Talks on Whidbey” show on KWPA. We were going to talk about the consequences of downsizing on the economy and spirituality. I circled town three times hunting for parking and ended up a few blocks away at the local library, one of my frequent public speaking venues. The town was busy. A friend in retail taught me a metric. Watch for the shopping bags. Lots of bags = lots of spending. Lots of empty hands = lots of browsing. Browsing doesn’t pay the bills. There were a few bags, but not many. At least people were visiting and taking time off from their busy lives.

A couple of years ago business was dismal. Owners and employees had time to worry. Now they have less time to worry, but they don’t have money to spend, except on more inventory, supplies, or debt reduction. Something had to keep people afloat through those dismal years. I’m in the same situation. I’m busier than ever but none of the money this year has made it to me. My sales of photos and books, my consulting and speaking services, have all remained inside the bounds of my business’ checkbook. Each of my projects is investing in the next. A few sales paid for renting venues. The classes are paying for prints and materials. The exhibits will pay for the next round of publishing. And eventually there will be more than sufficient excess, the seemingly mythical thing called profit.

Surely my busy business friends were at least gaining some discretionary capital, but no. Many of them are working without paying themselves, hoping to build the business to the point where it can pay for their time plus a helper or two. They are booking record revenues, but are constrained by weak profit margins, and hampered by cash flow potholes. Too many of our phone calls happen on weekends or late at night. They’re working Sundays or staying up past midnight or both.

If scrambling had a sound effect it would probably be the messy sound of mud or gravel spinning-out from under a tire as a work truck gets traction. It could be the rough cough of an outboard before it catches and bites into the water. It is the noise that seems to signify nothing, but that is the overture and prelude to progress.

In my case, I am trying to start about 18 engines. I counted. Some stand alone. Some are tied to each other. Many of them are reaching culmination within the next few weeks and months. Yesterday I uploaded the most recent Two Guys video: Two Guys Walking Around Port Townsend.  I talked about Coupeville. Want to see the place? Earlier we did Two Guys Walk Around Coupeville. Before that we did Two Guys Walk Around Langley (the one on Whidbey, not the one with the CIA or the one in BC.) So far we do the videos for free and for fun, but also as exposure for ourselves and the places we enjoy. I’m blogging today because for the next two days I’ll be helping conduct a Self-publishing Weekend on Whidbey Workshop: From Writer to Author, self-empowerment through self-publishing. That puts me into the two weeks where I take down the existing photo exhibits in the Braeburn (Langley) and Wind and Tide (Oak Harbor) in preparation for installing my photo exhibit, Twelve Months at Double Bluff, at Raven Rocks Gallery (Greenbank) – with the possibility of a one day show that I just heard about at a dance last week.

Woven through that schedule are my ongoing projects (e.g. consulting, the book about Scotland, more classes, and volunteering) and a collection of collaborations which are wonderful ideas that all seem to have the common need for funding. (Yeah, I know, maybe kickstarter can help.) And I continue to apply for jobs, track my investments, keep my home ready for buyers, sell my collectibles, and somehow find time to go out and dance or stay home to sit on the deck with a glass of wine.

I handle so many different projects because the world is changing and I am in an unconventional situation. The rules are changing. We thought they were written in stone, but they was really just scratches in sand that are being washed away by rains and tides.

My projects haven’t funded my lifestyle yet, but my efforts have built a foundation and my energy is providing them momentum. Breakout friction is always higher than rolling friction. That first shove can take a lot of effort. After things start to move they can roll easily.

Our positive collected efforts may be in a similar situation. Whether it is a business or an advocacy or a personal project, the apparent lack of movement may only be temporary. People are busy. Energy is flowing. Things will eventually begin moving. We’ll have to keep pushing, but it will take less effort, and maybe we can catch our breath, and then we’ll notice that we’ll have to jump into the driver’s seat and start steering this thing. There’ll always be something to keep us at least a little busy.

Stay tuned to the adventure. Imagine my life as these projects break out singly, in series, or in parallel. The self-publishing workshop can go on the road (call us), I could get a commission to produce a Twelve Month study somewhere fun and exotic, consultations can happen anywhere, it would be fun if the Scotland book created a book tour of Scotland, and each of the quiet and discreet collaborations could find their funding and audience carrying me into fascinating futures. There’s no way to know where this will lead. Stay tuned.

And now it is time for me to plan one key activity. I think I can block out a four hour vacation sometime around lunch and before tonight’s event. Quick, while no one is looking.

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Shrinking House Dreams

Posted on August 15, 2012 by Tom Trimbath

It says it on the For Sale flyer, so it must be true. My home has 868 square feet. Imagine 868 square legs to go with them. The shoe budget would be immense. It would definitely be a mobile home though. It isn’t. My home is a traditionally built wood frame house that just happens to take up less than 1,000 square feet of land. Give me the chance and I’d take a smaller house and more land; but, of course I’d like to keep the view or improve it. Maybe my financial situation has re-tuned my ears to hear more about small houses, but it is more than that. The trend is real. A new American Dream is returning to an old fashioned idea, cottages, bungalows, cabins – with some new twists included.

Been there. Done that. I bought my first house at 28 because I should. A friend, their realtor, and a local banker agreed that I had enough for a down payment and my salary could handle the monthly bills. Buying the house was a mark of adulthood and an expectation of acceptance. I expected that my family would approve. I’d fit in because I was living responsibly, not like those frivolous renters who had no commitment to community. Within months I realized that by following everyone’s advice I’d managed to commit all of my discretionary spending to utility, interest, and insurance payments. Moving from a 600 square foot apartment to a 2,200 two-story house left about 1,600 square feet empty. At least the empty living room made a great dojo. I closed off the second floor and wondered why I didn’t feel the joy of home ownership. Well, the value went up $30,000 in the first three months, so that helped.

I bought because I should. The next house was because I got married and we moved. The next was because we wanted to try a different neighborhood and commute. All of those houses were between 2,200 square feet and 2,600 square feet. All of them were too big. None of them felt like home. I felt like they owned me instead of me owning them.

I now live in my home. Two bedrooms, one bath, living room, kitchen and closets take up less space than some McMansion master suites. I use it all and I could use less. I know others that already do.

The American Dream included buying as much house as possible, partly as a status symbol, but partly as an investment. The New American Dream I am hearing from friends is the dream of being debt-free and self-reliant. Shrink the house to fit the needs. Find enough land, not too much nor too little, for privacy, productivity (gardening), and play. I only know of one person shopping for 3,000 square feet of house on a half-acre of land. Several are looking for 400 square feet of house on acreage. The acreage varies with the climate because the size is determined by the productivity of the garden. Instead of a maxed-out mortgage they want a greatly increased sense of financial security.

One of my favorite bloggers lives in a house that’s smaller than mine and sounds just as comfortable. I can’t find the exact numbers but I think Jeanne told me it is about half the size of my home. This is not an experimental existence. It isn’t something she’s trying on a whim. She’s lived there for years. One handy thing: when she remodels anything it changes everything. Complete renovations take far less money and time and yet have far greater consequences because it is like moving into a new home.

A couple of my friends independently took it one step further. They both built cabins (~ 140 square feet) on trailers. Brian built his with a shed roof and his renowned innovations. (Go check out his video tour.) It sits on a small plot he bought over on the dry side of the mountains. When the city gets to be too much he heads over there and recovers. He also plans to someday find acreage instead of a small town lot and settle where he can grow – whatever. Angela built a cabin, included some excellent craftsmanship and artistry, and tested it out by living in it for six months. Now it’s up for sale (asking $40,000 according to the sign in the window.) Brian would probably take half that because of some other motivations. (He’s busy running another business.) Both of them would also probably build another with the money from the first. Both of them produced livable accommodations for less than the price of a new car. It is easy imaging finding the right acreage for an extra $50,000. Prep the site. Build a storage building and a shop shed. Live debt free for less than half my remaining mortgage.

But that’s not small enough for some. Another friend, Jennifer, has been traveling around the county for months living out of a tear-drop trailer. Check out her travel log. She has to make adjustments, but every living situation does. She has to spend time carefully packing. I have to spend time maintaining a yard and a house. I can appreciate her situation. My bicycle ride across America (Just Keep Pedaling) and my walk across Scotland (soon to be a book) proved to me that I can survive for weeks with only the things that fit in panniers or a pack.

As the economy recovers many people will return to habits. I am encouraged by those that witnessed something else within that turmoil and are turning to other solutions. Debt-free is more appealing than a bonus room. A few chickens and acres of veggies that produce healthy and economical food are more appealing than meticulously maintaining lawns and flower beds that may only serve as visual reminders of chores. Simple living is appealing again. (Go check out the Simple Living forums for real-world examples and an opportunity for community.)

Trends can appear extreme and exclusive. Downsizing housing is a continuum. Many articles proclaim downsizing to include 1,500 square foot houses. Maybe that works best for some. A lot of the small house videos on YouTube are do-it-yourself projects, but there are plenty of builders working to small homes. Two local builders (that are too small to buy stock in) are Smart House and Green Pod, both out of Port Townsend. I get the impression Angela might became the Whidbey equivalent if she could get the funding. (Hey, anyone got some funding?)

As for me, well, these posts describe my financial history. Even back when I had over a million what I wanted was a small house on a big lot with nice views and a few outbuildings. Unfortunately, even if I sell my home for the asking price I won’t have enough to buy a cabin and the land. (Otherwise I might make Brian an offer on his cabin and property.) This could be taken one step further though. I know of two households that just moved onto the water. Living aboard a boat can happen, and if you think the price of houses dropped a lot you should see what happened to the price of boats. That would be a mobile house with real mobility. Of course, if I win the lottery I could do both. Hey, a guy can dream.

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Health And Wealth

Posted on August 11, 2012 by Tom Trimbath

I went to the hospital a couple of days ago. I’m fine. So is the person who broke a bone and who needed a ride. Pardon me if I don’t say who. Discretion is probably best. In a few weeks the bone will be better too. The experience was illustrative though. I’ve been avoiding hospitals and doctors for a few reasons. Thursday’s visit gave me two perspectives on the issue of wealth and health that may not sort themselves out until I write this post. Welcome to my processing.

Thursday was scheduled to be a rare day off. It is taking a lot of work to get ready for next week’s self-publishing workshop, next month’s gallery show, and at least a dozen other projects. The scrambling to find a way to pay the bills continues. The portfolio hasn’t recovered, the bills haven’t stopped, and the jobs haven’t arrived. In the meantime I am working hard at my business and buying lottery tickets. The phone rang at 5:30am. This was possibly good news. A small cadre of MVIS and DNDN shareholders have agreed to wake each other if our beleaguered stocks release stupendous news before the stock market opens. I answered and heard the request for something completely different. She needed someone to take her to the hospital. She was sure her arm wasn’t supposed to be that shape. For someone with a broken wrist she was amazingly calm and impressively aware of what needed to be done. Of course I said yes.

The local hospital isn’t very local. Whidbey is a long island and we both live near the southern tip. The hospital is a 45 minute drive. I drove through the mental and meteorological fog. She meditated. One of the handy things about small town emergency rooms is that there isn’t a line, or there wasn’t for us. The people were amazing. Everyone was professional yet relaxed. There was no freneticism. Everything was explained at a reasonable pace. Delays were measured in minutes, not hours. The patient was impressive too. She welcomed each new attendant as a friend, asked them how their day was going, how did they get to the island or this career; and then got to another pertinent question in the myriad of details wrapped around the mystery that lay within the morning’s medical issue. I stayed out of the way, took notes, watched and listened like a good chauffeur. The bone was reset, the split and sling were applied, the prescriptions written, and we were out the door in less than three hours. That’s the way this should work.

In the midst of it I realized that I probably would have been traumatized. I pay for my own health insurance and can only afford catastrophic care with a massive deductible. If I was laying there I would have seen four expert professionals working for three hours and using incredible equipment running up charges that could bankrupt me. Thanks to her employer she has excellent health care. At one point she even lamented that everyone should receive the same level of care with the freedom from worry that she had and that she knew would help her heal. I agree. I bemoan my health insurance which I can’t afford to use and which costs as much as I spend on food; and I feel for those worse off that can’t qualify or can’t afford the payments. I’ve considered stopping the payments myself. I fear bankruptcy more than I fear death.

Once upon a time I treated myself to more than regular doctor visits because I knew that health is more important than a lot of luxuries. Symptoms recognized early can save a lot of money by treating something when it is small rather than waiting until surgery or other drastic measures are necessary. I don’t visit my western care providers anymore. The story of my introduction to Oriental medicine is in an earlier post. That experience and insights from many friends in similar fields of study and practice have shown me ways to be healthier without prescription drugs or expensive testing procedures. It is amazing what a practitioner can do if they have the right touch and energy, an understanding of my lifestyle and options, and who knows how to communicate that. I feel healthier now than I have in years. Aches and pains exist, but they are so diminished that I frequently forget them. For a while they were ever-present to the point of incapacitating me for hours. Thank you Gan Mao Ling, tumeric, and a gluten-free diet. Oh yeah, and breathing. Proper breathing is amazing. Gotta do that more often.

My issue with health care costs is our issue with health care costs, merely made personal. Whether covered by my insurance, or by some corporation, or even by the government, all of those people should be paid for their work and expertise (and should get a tip for their excellent demeanor). The equipment must be bought and operated. The building must be built and maintained. Health is precious. It shouldn’t be a surprise that it costs so much.

We talked about that as we walked over to the pharmacy. We’re both old enough to remember simpler times. Doctors did make house calls. More things happened in their office instead of treatment rooms. Fewer people were involved. Setting a bone probably took one doctor, one nurse, some relatively effective pain medication and a bit of effort from all.

Four people weren’t much of a crowd, and the three hours were efficiently filled, but a lot of what transpired was caveats and contingencies. Most of the discussion was about the possible complications and ramifications. Tests were necessary, and also meant that less was left to judgment. It all meant better care for my friend the impressive patient, but I felt that a lot of the time and energy were there to protect the doctors, nurses, and the hospital from lawyers and insurance companies.

Broken joints take extra care. I’m glad she got that. I’m glad everything popped back into place. It doesn’t always happen that way, which is why there are so many tests, cautions, and conversations about consequences.

Yet, I wonder. If the physicians were allowed to use their judgment, could a doctor and a nurse and a good x-ray have done just as good a job in one hour instead of three? If so, then it isn’t the cost of the health care as much as it is the cost of – what – not trusting a professional’s judgement and expertise? Doctors are humans and humans make mistakes. There are people in every profession that must be penalized for mistreating others. But, if we trusted the majority more, if they weren’t socially and financially vilified for mistakes, would that give us a healthier health care system that didn’t erect such high barriers based on wealth? It is possible that my insurance is expensive and I fear medically-induced bankruptcy because our institutions don’t respect and support our health-care providers.

Western healthcare threatens my wealth at $3,600 per year in premiums for treatments that I can’t afford because of my deductible for coverage that I carry in case some car accident throws me into the emergency room unconscious and subsequently bankrupt. Eastern healthcare has improved my health, and while money is so tight that I can’t afford those treatments either, I know that I’ll go there for one-tenth the price and potentially a greater benefit.

Ah, and here the process that you have witnessed has produced the insight I was after. I trust both western and eastern physicians. But it is the western systems and institutions that I distrust. And if I review this recent experience I wonder how much wealth is being generated for those who benefit from the distrust. It may not be healthy for me to think that someone is out there getting wealthy because they want me to distrust the people I trust.

I think it is time to take a break, get up and stretch, have a cup of tea, and go help a friend who might have some two-handed household chores. Thanks for listening.

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Evolution Of Empire

Posted on August 8, 2012 by Tom Trimbath

Trends fascinate me. The other night I watched a movie, called “Something Ventured“, about the rise of venture capital and Silicon Valley. Before the end of the movie thoughts of much larger trends extended back thousands of years and ahead a few generations. The men in the movie tapped into and helped steer a trend that had incredible consequences – especially incredible when viewed from when they started. Understanding that trend led to great investment wealth. But I think they were part of a much larger trend that may be leading to a different kind of wealth.

The story in Something Ventured is basically what happens when eight disaffected employees leave their unsupportive company and start something new. They and people they encountered began to see the value in investing in innovation. Except for Genentech, almost every company they successfully invested in were in computer hardware or software. The stories of Apple, Cisco, Intel, et al will be legendary; or, at least as legendary as the stories from people like Edison, Carnegie, Rockefeller, et al. In my mind, they are all part of one phase of a larger trend.

They built empires, but empires are nothing new. Rapid, unprecedented expansion is nothing new. But the subject of the expansion continues to change.

Empires began as geography. The Egyptians, the Greeks, the Romans, the Mongols, the Chinese all were defined by rapid expansion across each of their known worlds. They acquired geography for glory, resources, and power that was frequently channelled to royalty. Trickle down existed then too, but it didn’t make it past the dukes and earls and such. Even there the titles were tied to land. Eventually each empire became unsustainable. The two main exceptions are China, which some could say is in danger of implosion; and US, which is spending more than it makes. One difference is that China and the US funnel those proceeds of geography across a greater populace than just royalty.

Skip up to the Renaissance and empires begin to get built around money. Businesses and corporations are formed to make money. They aren’t burdened by the responsibilities of governments. They can focus on narrower goals, maximize their potential, and create great wealth for their shareholders. The Dutch East India Company got things started, though I suspect the Medici acted as a transition between power based on land and power based on profit. Since then investing has been about trying to find the next profitable thing with a major variant being each investor’s balance of risk versus reward. The stories we hear and tell are about the explosive growth companies. The common knowledge within investors though is that almost every company eventually fails or fades. The ones that survive usually maintain a name but radically redefine their business.

Mini-empires are being constructed from social capital and explosive growth is called going viral. Now that much of the world is electronically networked, thousands of celebrities are created more quickly than they can react. They don’t need land or money. All they need is a meme, or a video, or a blog. There’s no reason for me to list them. You’re on the internet. You probably have a unique list of subscriptions. I’ve been watching the rise and path of Hannah Hart, otherwise known as MyHarto on YouTube. She is like Julie from the movie Julie & Julia (the story of a blogger who is inflicted with fame) but Hannah adds a lot more alcohol in her series “My Drunk Kitchen.” Watch for the fun, not for information. Social media is unpredictable, but the cost is so low that almost anyone can jump in. No royal decree or incorporation required. (Check out my YouTube channel to see what one or two guys can do for free. tetrimbath) Each of these celebrity arcs is essentially unsustainable despite the resilience of Justin Beiber. If you don’t know who he is you just proved the limits of celebrity. The wealth generated is less tangible (though you can check your Klout score), but eagerly sought. It is in demand.

From land and royalty, to wealth for shareholders, to accolades for crowds of celebrities the trend is to less tangible rewards spread more pervasively. What’s an investor to do? Modern investing didn’t exist when royalty ruled. The primary way to make money from social media is through advertising or by becoming one of the celebrities. Will what we know as investing turn out to be just a phase that civilization had to go through on the way to maturity?

What trend would be even less tangible and more pervasive? The only things that come to mind are the movements towards community and common consciousness. The Occupy Movement acts from a community that is evolving a mission and goal by consensus. The self-help movement advocates compassion, meditation, self-realization and seems to be forming itself into more substantial community than the predecessor communes of the 60s. The hippies have grown up. They and their kids are redefining dreams using those lessons learned. I’m doing that too, though my dreams are currently restrained by a mortgage. (Hey, want to buy a nice little homewith a big view and a neighborhood marina?)

a short walk from my house

Many are searching for lives that are more connected to each other than to currencies.

Change is accelerating. That’s well known. The speed of change usually refers to technological change. I think societal change is accelerating as well. Technological change was from stone to bronze to steel to silicon to what, graphene or quanta? Societal change seems to be from massive tangible assets providing power to a monarch to massive abstract wealth distributed amongst shareholders to massive acclaim across many creative or lucky contributors to what, massive community that embraces all or a tap into the common galactic consciousness? That may not help my portfolio but that does sound very profitable.

Maybe I look for that because my stock portfolio is so deflated. But I think that if we had a compassionate, mutually supportive community that continued to innovate we would have evolved into an empire to be proud of.

Despite my guess at a trend, it is also good to remember that we never completely abandon our past. Otherwise my personal geography (my home) and the money associated with it (its market value and my mortgage) wouldn’t have existed to inspire this post.

Stay tuned.

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Unemployed With Style

Posted on August 4, 2012 by Tom Trimbath

Twelve months into looking for a job I received a compliment I never expected. “Tom, I know you’re going through some hard times, and I just have to say that I’m impressed with your style.” (Paraphrased because I was surprised when I heard it.) Evidently, I am stylishly unemployed. The thought came to mind again as I sat with some friends outside the South Whidbey Commons in Langley. The three of us looked like an image from a brochure for early retirement. Most folks walking by would have no idea that we were all struggling to rebuild our financial lives. Most folks may have missed the fact that only one of us had a cup of tea. The smiles and laughter created a reality and a mirage.

For those just recently walking into my story, there’s a quick update back in my post: My Jobs Report Month 11. Since then I’ve had two interviews. That makes a total of four in about a year, only one of which was for a full time position. The recent flurry is appreciated. I know I didn’t get three of the four, and I suspect the silence from the fourth is not a good sign. And yet, each interview is the start of a relationship that might lead to something even better. Stay tuned. I guess you are because you’re here. So, let’s continue with style.

Allow me to be clear. If someone is complimenting my style they aren’t talking about fancy clothes, fine wines, or expensive adventures. I describe my clothes as bland, because beige goes with everything and I don’t have to guess about what goes with what. I do have some finer wines, thank you Whidbey Island Winery, and most of those bottles are from at least a year ago. I switched to box wines when I was hit by my Triple Whammy. As for expensive adventures, I did walk across Scotland back in the fall of 2010, which doubled my living expenses for three weeks. Since then my hiking boots have been used as work boots and even my backpacks are getting dusty because of the price of gas. My style is my attitude. Optimism and positivism are their own brand of fashion.

The friends who sat with me had that attitude and are also handsome (him) and beautiful (her). The tourists probably saw three adults laughing and energetically talking and relaxing on a gorgeous summer day. We were there to figure out how to get through financial strife, how to rebuild or redefine our lives, and to compare notes on opportunities or to discover opportunities that we could create. Some of the laughter came from marveling at how quickly millions can evaporate and come back. Some of the laughter came from the ludicrous disconnects between what people have to offer and what they can be paid for. Engineers direct traffic on ferry boats. Consultants stack firewood. Sculptors lay brick.

Society had visual images of the unemployed. There should be some nervousness in the demeanor. The clothes should be a bit threadbare. Resumes and business cards are always in hand. At the worst, it all degrades to standing at intersections with a cardboard sign or sleeping under a bridge.

Most unemployed folks I know look completely normal. There is no external hint that this person or that is unemployed, unless they decide to make it obvious somehow. If they dressed in style, they still do. I’d like to say that if they laughed with friends they still do, but that isn’t the case. Some do. Some don’t. Some maintain a positive attitude, but some were too strong for too long and have pulled back from public view. Some of them don’t even answer the phone anymore. I know one ex-professional who is cheery and fun until two sentences into any conversation about jobs at which point he quickly turns and walks away. Up until then he looked like any other home owner working on his project.

The reality for many is a mix. Fiorella Barbara was open and honest enough to write this poem and allow me to post it here.

THE MASK

Do you know how hard it is always to look strong,…
while inside you are falling apart?

Do you know how hard it is to look beautiful,
while inside you are feeling empty?…

Do you know how hard it is to look confident,
while you are going insane on the inside?

Do you know the price of wearing the mask and playing the part?

Tears… bitter tears… and the knowledge that you are alone in the battle.

~ Fiorella Barbara

The reason we get together is partly to share possibilities, but mostly it is to assure each other that we aren’t alone in the battle. To quote one of my favorite authors, “Shared pain is lessened; shared joy is increased . . .” – Spider Robinson

I’m glad that I live a frugal and simple life. It is easier to maintain a sense of sanity and self because the things that are in my life are based on my values, not those of some advertiser or peer group. Seeing such a life from economic highs and lows has been valuable. (Hmm, can I get paid for that?) Things impose demands, and living a simple, frugal life means having few things and fewer demands. I couldn’t maintain my attitude otherwise. Maintaining my commitment to my mortgage is my biggest monthly challenge. (My Home For Sale Alas) Without that the simplicity of my life would be even more prominent and powerful. (Want to know more about such a life? Check out New Road Map Foundation and The Simple Living Forums. You’ll find out that you are not “alone in the battle.”)

The three of us had unique stories. Everyone does. You may already know mine: hoping for a portfolio recovery, pursuing my business, selling my home, applying for jobs, and watching for windfalls. Stephen Webber is looking to rebuild yet again by taking decades of experience and seminars and turning them into a valuable and necessary certification process for a troubled industry. (I hope I captured his strategy, goal, and intent. Check his web site to be sure.) Fiorella Barbara is retraining yet again, and will need a job after she graduates, yet again. Their stories are different from Jennifer Hooper‘s and Spencer Webster‘s. None of us fits the stereotype. None of us are just statistics. None of us are abstractions. All of us would appreciate some help, regardless of how good things look. Nice to know we have style though!

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Wrong About Dendreon

Posted on August 1, 2012 by Tom Trimbath

I was wrong about DNDN. I invested in Dendreon by buying shares of DNDN because I thought the company had a good chance of succeeding with their prostate cancer treatment (Provenge). The last time I looked, DNDN was down over 90% from its high, they were going to lay off over 40% of the company, and close a facility. I never expected that to happen; especially, after the FDA approved the treatment, the treatment saved lives, and the company had grown to making hundreds of millions of dollars a year. I was so right and so wrong at the same time.

A quick synopsis for those who haven’t followed Dendreon‘s story. Dendreon is a biotech largely based on a technology that trains the patient’s immune system to fight cancer. The patient gives some blood, an antigen specific to the cancer is connected to another molecule that the patient’s immune system will recognize, the result is transferred back into the patient, and in a few days or weeks the patient may find that their cancer is being treated from the inside. The process is far simpler, less painful, and more successful than traditional competition. The surprise for many was that the price of each injection is about $30,000, and the recommended “dose” is for three injections, but even then the treatment is cheaper than the alternatives. Median life extension was conservatively claimed as four months at the start, but as the treatment has entered the field, the data has suggested a much longer extension. Clinical trials have also suggested that the treatment be used earlier and across more of the patient population. This is all good news.

About this time last year Dendreon announced a 20% revenue miss. The stock dropped 80%. (Triple Whammy) I started looking for a job. I’m still looking. (My Jobs Report Month 11 – Anyone need an aerospace engineer who can write, speak, teach, and consult?) Since then growth has fallen short of expectations and upper management has changed. There has been a lot of inaccurate news reporting that hasn’t helped; but, it is a radical new treatment, too good to believe for some, and possibly too much of a threat to convention for others.

I looked forward to Provenge’s success. If it attained the optimistic projections of a billion dollar treatment, I would have more than enough shares to be more than comfortably retired. Even if they only attained half of that, the stock would still be worth more than enough based on “the Present Value of Future Revenues Discounted for Risk.” Provenge’s success in our decade’s old War On Cancer should have benefited the patients, the company, and the shareholders well enough to launch much positive change. The technology probably works for more than prostate cancer. There are good reasons to suggest that it can also work against lung, breast, ovarian, colo-rectal, renal and bladder cancers. Add all of those possible treatments to the Present Value calculation and even a shortfall in Provenge market penetration would be absorbed into an awesome potential.

That’s where I was wrong. Despite being approved by the FDA, despite being more successful than the conventional competition, despite 60% year-to-year growth, DNDN is valued as if it doesn’t work and as if the future treatments won’t happen. The stock is trading for less than it was before the FDA approval. I figured that even if the treatment was only marginally successful and too expensive, the revenues and technology would be valued much more highly after an FDA approval. For a while that was true and DNDN was climbing past $50. I had a partial sell point at $64. Oh well.

There is plenty of speculation about various conspiracies. Were the FDA’s delays bureaucratic resistance to something new, or were there illegal influences at play, or were they merely dutifully acting extremely cautious? Were financial and trading irregularities a result of the company deciding to go it alone and not play the game by selling a portion of the company to a major pharmaceutical firm, or was there a backlash because they didn’t need to rely on conventional funding, or was the flash crash and short selling totally legal? If Dendreon made a billion, would the threat to multiples of that within existing companies and financial institutions be sufficient incentive for unethical acts? If Provenge is as simple to administer as it has been, does it disrupt existing governmental, medical, and charitable bureaucracies?

The basis of the speculations is that the depressed price is retribution for being different, and possibly a drive to set up someone to be able to take credit for a massive recovery in a few quarters. If DNDN climbed back to initial post-approval prices then someone will claim excellent managerial skills.

DNDN is trading at pre-approval prices. Their price-to-sale ratio is less than two; that’s down in the neighborhood of construction firms, not breakthrough biotechs. The only way I thought they’d get here was if the treatment had massive, negative, unseen side effects. That hasn’t been the case. The opposite has been true. From what I can tell, Provenge is a benign, effective, and cost-efficient treatment for one of the most prevalent cancers.

And I am looking for a job and have my home for sale. Two years ago my holdings were about to become more than enough. I probably won’t have any shares left by the end of this year, unless I start selling some of my other depressed stocks or find significant revenues elsewhere. (Did I mention I am hunting for a job, am selling my home, am working every day on my business, and am buying lottery tickets?) If the company survives and the stock recovers, the people who benefit the most are those who didn’t have to sell.

A month and a half ago I posted a comment from the CEO. He was talking at the annual shareholders meeting. (Corporations Meet Owners DNDN 2012)
“In response to a question about the stock price, the CEO noted that no one else in the room wanted the price to go higher than he did. I almost said something out loud, but then remembered the rules for expulsion. In large part because of DNDN’s collapse I have been looking for a job (see My Jobs Report Month 9), am having to sell my house (see Home For Sale Alas), and have never had more uncertainty in my life (see Too Many IFs). I contend that he is not having to sell his house to find money for living expenses, is not looking for a job, and has not had to sell off 66% of his shares and most of an IRA in the interim. I strongly suspect that returning DNDN to $60 would have a much greater affect on my life than it would on his.”

I’ve had to sell so many shares over the last few months that even if DNDN returned to $60 I’d continue with all of my efforts because I have to. He may benefit by making millions. If I have no shares I won’t benefit at all.

Despite the price of DNDN I have confidence in my research abilities. Dendreon did succeed. Provenge is approved. The treatment is treating patients. The technology may work against other cancers. I was wrong about DNDN, but I think it is because the investment community doesn’t know how wrong they are about Dendreon.

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Unwrapping My iPad

Posted on July 30, 2012 by Tom Trimbath

Oh iPad. How far we’ve come from boxes the size of small furniture and encyclopedic manuals. A box the size of a dictionary, and a manual printed on a half a card. And I got mine for free.

Thank you South Whidbey Record. I wrote about this a bit in the previous posts, Real Optimism and Serendipity and the South Whidbey Record, but wanted to pass along a long time Mac owner and new user’s experience. (Want some history? Go read A Mac Is Not A Toy) Things have changed since my Mac 512, and some companies could learn some lessons. (Hello MicroVision.)

Welcome to Life with an iPad, a geezer geek’s education and introduction to a computer without a keyboard or a cursor.

  • Step one: Peel through the plastic. There’s little enough of that, though some of it was overlapped into a simple puzzle. Careful application of old-tech, a knife, took care of that.
  • Step two: Prepare to hear about the inevitable delay of gratification inherent in any mobile device. Take it out of the box and plug it in for a few hours before doing anything else; except, they don’t require that.
  • Step three: Reconfigure brain for 2012.
  • Step four: Sip some tea, because there’s no rush.
  • Step five: Press and hold the On/Off button for a few seconds. Okay, so that didn’t work.
  • Step six: Review everything up to step five.
  • Step seven: Oops. Wrong button. Yay!
  • Step eight: Slide to setup, English, 66%, United States, Disable Location Services (for now – because I want to see how it works in simple mode), Choosing a Network, Set Up iPad, Skip Apple ID (simple for now), Terms and Conditions (of course I agree because I have no real choice except to use it as a placemat otherwise), Diagnostics (&Usage don’t send), Thank You, Start Using iPad
  • Step nine: Test the internet. Make sure I have at least one bookmark and it is for my blog.
  • Step ten: Plug it in because I want it to have a fully charged battery.
  • Step eleven: Update Software
  • Step twelve: Rest before diving into personalization of mail, calendar, the rest of the bookmarks, and finding out whether I can use this for backup of my books (the ones I’ve written and am writing) and my photos (personal and business). Let’s see how long I can stay away. This Mac, which ain’t a Mac, is more of a toy than the MacBook. And I got it for free! Oops. The screen went black. I woke it up and found that I hadn’t hit Install. Now I’m not sure what’s going on, but there’s an empty progress bar that is glacially slowly filling. Step away Tom. Step away.
  • And go check on Facebook via the MacBook.
  • Step thirteen: It just went “twink” and back to black. Knock knock. OK. It’s alive, and feeding. I’ll step away – really this time. Well, not too far. It’s connected to my MacBook and I am using that right now.
  • Many steps later: I’ve attempted the intelligent customized sync-ing of much of my MacBook. Time to sit on the couch and play. Does it work well enough for me to play? Nope. Apple has decided to follow in the footsteps of Microsoft. The password authentication has kicked me through several cycles, partly from getting used to the keyboard which counts against my log in attempts. So each new attempt results in a new password that I can’t keep track of or type. Grrr. With that much of a hassle I am sure to visit the app store as infrequently as possible. Nope. Downloaded and installed Netflix (a free app) and can’t find it to launch it. Oh, it was on the next page over even though the first page wasn’t full. Go figure.
  • The morning after: Lessons continue. Mobility, yes. Typing this post, no. Everything to its task according to its skills.
  • A few days later: The laptop is still my favorite, but that’s because I am a writer (I want a keyboard and mouse), and because my arms aren’t long enough for the iPad (I’m over 50 and the proper distance to the display seems to be one and a half arm lengths if I am not wearing glasses.)
  • I keep wanting to rotate my laptop 90 degrees after I’ve used my iPad.

I’m learning. What I haven’t figured out is how, why, and when the mail and calendar sync; but, I suspect I’ll work that out eventually. I can see that the real benefit will come from being able to leave my laptop at home and yet have the majority of the functionality available while I roam. Nice mobility. Where’s the handle?

As for MicroVision, compare this experience with what it took to unwrap and fire up my ShowWX. It took three posts in my old blog starting with: MVIS LTBH ShowWX news – Part One. But hey, that was more complicated, right? Nope. The iPad is more complicated than the ShowWX. But Apple probably put more into the user design and that’s why it cost so much more. Nope. The ShowWX cost more, though that’s a bit of green laser history. I nudge MicroVision this way, not to chastise them for my first experience with them, but to encourage them to consider the user a bit more if they ever release another product.

As for the sudden increase in blog posts, this is partly a consequence of being a writer who writes about timely topics and likes to thank people sooner than later, and while news is fresh. Delay a day and something bigger could happen that slides other news aside. The other reason is that I am slightly nervous this morning. (Check the comments on My Jobs Report Month 11) I have an interview coming up before lunch (as I quickly check the clock – whew, no problem) and one way to think about something else is to type. So I type.

Stay tuned. There’s more news to come – and I might read about it first on my iPad.

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Serendipity and the South Whidbey Record

Posted on July 29, 2012 by Tom Trimbath

Let’s keep this simple. I got lucky. I won my iPad. I didn’t have to compete against anyone. This isn’t the result of a meritocracy. As far as I know it isn’t the result of networking or nepotism. I filled out a form and the folks at the South Whidbey Record pulled it out of some bin. Thank you.

There are more than enough quotes about making your own luck. “God helps those who help themselves.” Interestingly enough is not a bible quote, nor from Benjamin Franklin (if I can believe wikipedia.) The quote goes back to the Greeks, in  which case it was probably in the plural, “Gods . . . ” I’ve been working hard and me as the writer and you as the reader are all watching to see if I encounter good luck. Lately it has been showing up. Thanks again.

There’s another quote that I doubt is in the databases, unless they’ve been wise enough to quote one of my friends. I’ll paraphrase. She pointed out that the odds of winning the lottery are very small. Deciding not to play drops those odds to zero. Buying one ticket raises the chances from zero to very small, which is an infinite improvement. Buying two tickets only improves the odds to twice a very small number, which is still a very small number. Okay, so we were having a math geek moment; but, I got her point. Being pessimistic and deciding to do nothing means nothing is likely to happen. At least trying, doing enough to clear that first hurdle is infinitely better than dismissing the opportunity. Doing twice as much does improve things, but not as much as you might think.

I entered the drawing. I suspect many didn’t because they thought they couldn’t win. This wasn’t like the lottery though. I couldn’t enter twice. Could I?

The odds of winning any such lottery are a large function of the number of entries. I live in a small town. The odds of winning something from The Seattle Times would be worse, though I suspect they’d award more than one iPad.

I play the lottery for at least two reasons. One – For a dollar my daydreams can entertain me for more than the time it takes to watch a movie. Two – Despite the low odds, eventually someone wins; and it might as well be me. But, I typically only buy one dollar’s worth per drawing. (By the way, did you know that you can buy ten drawings in advance in Washington’s Lottery? Ten dollars covers about three weeks of drawings. Handy.) And of course, I play the lottery because I could use the money.

Applying for jobs doesn’t follow exactly the same logic. Making that phone call, sending that email, or submitting that application is a good idea that doesn’t cost much that can have great benefits. Sometimes people get jobs without applying. Most of the time, the process isn’t random. Often enough the winner is selected before anyone has a chance to enter the contest.

Yet in life, showing up, taking that first step, making that tangible effort is more than enough because so many talk themselves out of opportunities. I wonder how many times I’ve done that to myself.

An aspect of living in a small town, or at least an intentional community, is that opportunities and needs are more apparent. The news becomes that much more important. The South Whidbey Record is only a couple of dozen pages, but I rarely read more than that many when I had a subscription to The Seattle Times. The Record’s pages are easier to peruse, and small things are less likely to get lost. News items too small for a big paper can hit the front page, which might mean someone gets the help they need. Small items within the pages aren’t lost in a multitude, which means I can see things like an ad for winning an iPad. A small town newspaper can seem like a small thing, but it greatly improves the possibility that big things can happen.

The Record has imperfections, but most things do. I know I have a few. I’ve even found a few in the iPad, though that may simply be the results of a “defective end-user.” (And probably the subject of another post.) If we waited for perfections before getting on with life, we wouldn’t live.

In the meantime, I’m learning how to use my iPad, I have my lottery ticket – and I also noticed over on drewslist a $25 raffle to win a new car. (It was probably in the Record too, but drewslist is fresh in my mind because I just checked my email.) My car is a 2000 Jeep Cherokee Classic, which I like but it has over 150,000 miles. The raffle car is a Fiat 500. Hmm, it’s been a while since I’ve had two cars. If I had a new car that got over 30mpg it would be a lot easier to drive 750 miles to visit my dad. Hmm, maybe . . . I wonder what my chances are of winning. Hmm . . .

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Real Optimism

Posted on July 28, 2012 by Tom Trimbath

Optimism. Just as I as was beginning to doubt, proof of positivism arrived. Since I posted My Jobs Report Month 11, I’ve had calls from three prospective employers (interviews begin next week), and as another entry in the category of “You Can’t Make This Stuff Up”, I won an iPad. I’ve been buttressing my optimism with internal supports for so long that I’ve had to adjust to external positive proof. The interviews lifted my mood, relaxed many muscles, and gave me some IFs to play with. All of that is much appreciated. (Check the Comments section of the job post for updates.) An unexpected iPad adds a marvelous cornerstone. Something tangible to remind me that optimism can be real.

Thank you South Whidbey Record, the local semi-weekly newspaper that covers details that would be lost in the big city papers. I’ve never tracked it, but I suspect I end up in the paper about once a month. Let’s see. There’s the annual attempt  at moderation around the Fourth of July fireworks (yes to public fireworks, no to the private illegal fireworks – because illegal is so common that it overwhelms local police despite bomb-sniffing dogs at the ferries.) There are my classes, usually the ones about self-publishing, which are almost monthly. There are my art exhibits, which I really could promote more. There are my book events. And then there are dances, volunteering, and generally being social and visible. Being visible is easy in the Record’s neighborhood (even though they moved north) because there aren’t many of us despite its size. Such is island life.

As money got tight I dutifully eliminated expenses. The necessities were obvious and I continue to pay them. Some luxuries became obviously worth less than they cost. Goodbye satellite TV. Hello streaming. Inevitably there were expenses that were for useful goods and services. I hesitated when the newspaper and magazine subscriptions came in because most of them are available online. But despite my finances, there are things that I wanted to support. Various charities continue to receive contributions, though the amounts are smaller. Local newspapers provide a service, and while I wasn’t going to consider them a charity, and I couldn’t buy big print ads, I knew that getting the paper in the box twice a week provided me a tangible connection with my community. I’d support that. And yet I hesitated because as money gets too tight, sentiment must defer to necessity.

Then I saw their ad. They had an ad in their own paper. I suspect they get a good rate. But the ad was for a contest. Renew your subscription and sign up to win an iPad. I’ve gotten so tired of facebook scams about winning iPads that I laughed. I was pretty sure that filling out the clipping wasn’t going to subject my computer to malware. I am very careful with my computer. I only have one, and it is the home for my business and everything else. All of my writing, my photos, and everything I needed to run my consulting business resided in one computer. It works well, though using a 13 inch screen to review photos that will be printed at 20 x 30 is a bit comical. Every time I carry it I am careful. Replacing it would be a hardship. Even if everything is properly backed up, the extra expense would hurt. So, why not? I filled out the form, sent in my money, kept the possibility in mind, but didn’t ponder it much.

Thursday I got the call. I was the winner. Could I swing by the office to pick it up? Oh yeah. They’ll take a picture of me for the paper and maybe have a little article. Sure! It’s not like I haven’t been in the paper before.

Thursday night I poured myself a drink, but instead of it being a drink to relax me from financial anxieties, it was a drink to encourage me to ponder and reset my attitude. Instead of cheap vodka (playfully turned into homemade spiced variants of martinis), I had some of the good scotch provided by a friend in appreciation for a consultation.

Optimist or pessimist, getting through tough times is, by definition, tough. Putting the tough times in the past though requires making that distinction, recognizing that those times were temporary. I don’t know if I’ll get job offers (though some of the phone calls have been very encouraging.) Live within tough times for too long and pessimism can persist or optimism can become abstract. Too many people spent too many decades living within the fears and anxieties they were subjected to for the years of the Great Depression. I’m not going to start acting as if my money worries are behind me. I’m pragmatic enough to save that celebration for after the paychecks, or my business revenues, or my investment proceeds, or some windfall have significantly shown up in my bank account. These last twelve months have severely drained my resources and dramatically increased my debt. There’a lot of catching up to do.

So, now I have an iPad. I have a computer that looks like it will handle a lot of the ways I electronically connect with people. It also can act as yet another backup for some of my business. And it gives me mobility, so when I get a call on cell phone while I’m away from home, I’ll be able to schedule that interview or consulting session or public speaking event during the call, instead of telling them I’ll call back when I get home. (Yeah, I know. A smartphone could handle the same thing, but I’m waiting for the next generation of phones that will include a MicroVision picoprojector.) Skip the long-winded verbiage. I won an iPad. Yeah! Let’s have some fun! Let’s have some fun watching Tom catch up to speed with the decade.

My iPad will help me relax, though remembering a password that meets Apple’s criteria has been a problem. I had to reset it or me four times last night. Apple seems to be getting as pesky as Microsoft at its most stringent. I’ll relax after I teaches me how to use it. Oo, that doesn’t sound very Apple-ish either.

Oh well, I am in the midst of adjustments. And that’s a good thing. Adjustments have just begun. I’ll learn how to use my iPad. My cell phone company called to tell me that I must replace my phone by the end of the year. It is so old that they are taking down the equipment that listens to it. (Come on MicroVision. I’m working to a deadline here.) I’m happy about the job interviews and possibilities, and I have applications in for dozens of other jobs. Something may get added to the list.  Earnings season begins next week, at least for my portfolio. The August workshop is filling and coming up quick. (Postmark the check before August 1st and get 20% off.) My photos exhibits are extended into August. (Thank you Wind and Tide in Oak Harbor, and Braeburn in Langley.) And then the big season hits, as my fifth of five Whidbey Island photo essays premiers at Raven Rocks Gallery in Greenbank in September. And I know I forgot other positive possibilities to list.

So, pardon me if I stumble a bit as I adjust. Like the teenager surprised by that first kiss despite years of dreaming about it, like the sailor caught by the first gust of wind after the doldrums, like the fisherman who has to wake from dozing because something hit the bait, I hope to not look too silly as I remember how good it can be and what I was hoping for all along. Real optimism.

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