I’m not bragging. I’m not boasting. I am also not ignoring my unrealized good fortune. D-Wave Quantum’s stock, QBTS, hit a new high this week, $39.55. I missed quantifying the peak, but the stock closed the week at $33.02 for a one-year gain of over 3,600%. Good things can happen, and I prefer not to ignore them. I also didn’t act on it. I slept in. So it goes, and maybe keeps going.

I do not advise anyone. I particularly do not advise anyone to invest in stocks the way I do. I do, however, point out that it is possible to see returns that far exceed the historical averages of ~7% to ~10%. Single-digit returns can make investing seem silly. Few expect to win the lottery. With a bit more than lottery luck and an acceptance of some risk, it is possible to see returns that are in that middle. Thanks to some good luck, my portfolio is up over 150% over the most recent twelve months.

Thanks to some good luck.

Bad luck happens, too.

I’ve written about some of my bad investing luck in this blog and also in my recently published book, Muddling By. Criminal acts against two of my stocks cost me ~80% of my net worth circa 2008. Not being able to get a job or sell my house meant drawing down my investments until I’d lost 98%. Hence, the beginning of My Triple Whammy. 

Those losses weren’t from a lack of investing logic. Both companies, DNDN and AMSC, were succeeding with their products (in my opinion), but both were targeted by criminals. That’s true of crime in general. 

(The third part of My Triple Whammy continues to play out as I wait for MVIS to do something besides simply survive.)

If I followed writing advice, I’d share this part last, but I prefer to disclose this part early. That 3,600% gain is unrealized. Unrealized means I haven’t sold the stock. I haven’t ‘made’ that money until I sell. But I also don’t want to wait until then because this is happening now. 

I also want to chronicle this stock’s performance. 

I almost realized some of the gains. Almost.

I watch my stocks, but I rarely trade. I haven’t sold anything this year. Maybe I will. Maybe I won’t. I do, however, watch the stocks daily because small companies can change quickly. As QBTS started to suddenly rise, I started to watch it more intently. I buy stocks to eventually sell them, hopefully for a profit. I’d already sold enough to clear my initial purchase. I was and am letting the profits run.
Knowing, or at least guessing well, about when to sell is an art that involves math. Guesswork is involved because the future is uncertain. Pick your preferred style.

Sell because you have to or because there’s something better.

Sell with a 10% profit, or 20%, or 30%, …, or 100%,… or 1,000%, or…

Selling with a profit is a success. The details describe the success’ extent.

I do Not have a fixed, rigid, sales philosophy. I sell when I feel it is the time to sell. There’s usually some math involved, but each situation is unique, so I remain adaptable.

I do Not sell at a fixed, rigid percentage because I’ve missed out on more gains than any 100% losses I’ve encountered. 

Roughly, I bought QBTS near $1. As a reminder, it closed today at $33.02. If I had sold at $2, I would’ve made 100% (ignoring taxes and commissions and such). Profit! But where else would I put the money? Simply buying something else is like finding a favorite fishing hole, then deciding to go elk hunting instead. QBTS was going up. D-Wave was improving. I’m staying.

And yet, I’ve also seen stellar stocks crash. So, I typically pick a portion to sell at some elevated price. I decided on ~25% of my QBTS to sell at $40. My amateur knowledge of market psychology suggested that others might have the same idea, so I’d probably sell at $38.50 unless it was rocketing up. It started the week at $31.85. Monday, it closed at ~$36. I joked with an acquaintance about the stock because I didn’t expect to see those prices until later 2025 or 2026, if ever. I relaxed. 

Tuesday, I slept in. I slept in for ~1 hour after the market opened In that brief window, QBTS hit $39.55. I missed it. OK. Maybe it will bounce back. Not so far. I am Not heartbroken. I bought the stock near $1. If the stock fell back to $2, I’d have a 100% gain. I’d be bummed, but financially ahead. 

It is hard to know how high a stock can go. Math may provide an answer, but the investment community’s psychology matters too. Is it unrealistic to imagine a $1 stock going to $2? A $2 stock going to $4? A $4 stock going to $8? An $8 stock going to $16? A $16 stock going to $32? How about a $32 stock going to $64? And on…

Each of those doublings may seem reasonable because they already happened. Why not $64, or $128, or more? There are reasons to limit corporate expectations. There are practical industrial limits. But stocks involve emotions which defy logic.

I slept in and missed out on selling at almost $40. My acquaintance grinned and said they thought the universe was playing with me. They might be right.

I do not know how big D-Wave and QBTS can be. The market is guessing too. Quantum computing is a new industry. We’re all just guessing.

I’d be more likely to sell if the proceeds could do more than buy a new car. A new house would need much more. The performance so far continues to mean I am much further from my recent world of worry. I won’t complain.

I will also take this as a reminder of the power of luck. I’ve seen good luck and had luck, and I’ve seen hard work. I can’t claim credit for hard work creating my current wealth. And I will thank and won’t ignore the benefits of good luck. 

Holding QBTS, and fascinated to have a front-row seat.