Don’t try to make sense of it. I know, I know. You’re a responsible adult trying to at least cope and maybe even make things better. Congratulations. I commend you. Get to it and stay with it. But don’t try to make sense of it. This is government by whim, at best, and extreme and unsustainable corruption at its worst. Rats. I think I’ll have a drink. I even have a way of rationalizing that.
Canada, O, Canada, my favorite neighbor, seems to be enacting an ad hoc boycott of American, er, US, products. Can’t blame them. Good idea. I’ve seen notices of a US boycott of commerce on February 28. A nice sign and a good idea, and it shouldn’t be surprising that a minimalist cheers on less consumption. (Gotta remember to get that order in for some blinds and a skillet. Counter-productive, eh? I’m sure I’m not the only one.)
Sip.
This blog post is partly inspired by our recent podcast episode. (Intriguing Creativity with Steve Smolinsky and Tom Trimbath) Every month, Steve and I talk about problems and solutions. The creative solutions are always the most entertaining. We tend to stay away from politics, but to ignore politics lately is to ignore almost every aspect of modern life. So, we dove in.
I’ll spare you the details because an hour-long conversation of rants and raves, well, it would take less time for those who are interested to listen to the podcast. That’s why it is there.
Solutions tend to come in themes. For a while, everything would be solved if everyone had a website. Now, be on social media. Oops. Use AI. Uh oh. Don’t use AI. One theme goes back thousands of years: trust each other.
Predicting what we will need is only possible by chance because conventional wisdom is now moot. We don’t know what we need, but we know we need each other.
Another friend called me (an actual phone call!) to tell me that they and their neighbors got together to compare what each had, what they could offer, and what they might need.
Sip.
Sure, there are going to be marches and letter campaigns. We hope there will eventually be a legitimate election. But, in the meantime, neighbors can help neighbors. It is handier in communities with land, water, and sources of power. Despite what the ads say (Super Bowl Ads 2025), people don’t always have to rely on corporations or governments. Corporations and governments exist because they can be useful, but humans and human societies existed without central authorities. Some re-learning may be required.
That’s partly what Steve and I talked about. Steve lived in wilderness. I’ve lived frugally. Media romanticizes the cabin in the woods and the simple life, but when someone actually does it, they can also be ridiculed as backwards or out-of-touch. Worse, they can be labeled as a prepper, someone waiting for the civilized world to crash. And yet, such ‘silly’ ideas might be an effective coping mechanism for some.
Millions of people are like the fictional members of The Matrix, hopelessly plugged in, and prone to shock if they disconnect.
Sip.
There is no panacea. We will all need a variety of coping mechanisms, each customized to the uniqueness of individual lives. I’ve moved into a tiny house, and hope to move it and me onto land I own rather than land I rent. It might make more sense for someone to move onto a bus line or buy an ebike so they aren’t as reliant on petroleum. I know some folks who naturally will be growing more of their food. Bonus points for raising something that lays eggs. Omelets may be golden in more ways than color.
Pausing and deciding to not sip.
Pardon a war analogy, but it may elevate the example appropriately.
The US Civil War (the War Between the States) and World War I were horrendous. War is horrendous, but in both cases, waves of lives were thrown at conflicts in ways that were ludicrous. Weapon technology advanced while tactics didn’t. Politics is no longer the social movement of the 60s. Marches are gratifying, but not as powerful as the right and lucky viral tweet or video. Letters to senators should be powerful, but senators who are incumbent many times over have probably figured out ways to protect their careers regardless of the issues. They may not risk their position by prosecuting someone who seems to be unassailable.
What can we do for and with each other? Debates may succeed, but one person growing potatoes, and another person raising chickens, and someone else figuring out how to create a local area network, and someone else hooking up many power solar panels than their house needs can be a community that mutually survives. There will be disruptions, but they may be minor compared to people who are ignoring the issues or trying old tactics on an evolved battlefield.
What does this have to do with personal finance? Think more in terms of frugality. Respect needs over wants, and resources over hopes. As some politician said; “Do what you can, where you are, with what you have.” After you’ve established that foundation, you’ll have more security than most. Then, if you have excess resources, teach others, and maybe teach archaic institutions.
Sip.
My sips have been frivolous but a handy reminder. In joking solidarity with my northern neighbors in Canada, I, too, have decided to imbibe some Canadian whisky. (I realize the economics and math don’t necessarily work that way, but hey, an excuse for whisky.) More seriously, I intend to shop local even more than before. Supporting the local farmers builds community. Yes, it does cost more, but I also get more. The region becomes healthier. The people become more resilient. My money is going to someone I may know instead of a distant oligarch.
I am also a believer that what the oligarchs are doing in unsustainable. They’re so enamored with climbing as high as possible that I don’t think they realize they will inevitably fall. I don’t think anything is going to convince them until they contact the ground at full speed. I feel sorry for them because of their delusions and the impact they have.
I am not qualified to give advice, but I am allowed to pass along what I intend to do, and I extend that to celebrating others who are doing even more. Thanks to everyone who is doing in addition to talking. Nicely done.
Welcome to my annual review of Super Bowl ads. I wonder what kind of scrambling went on after the US Presidential Election. I watch the ads, but not the game, to spot trends. I watch for trends throughout the year, but every Super Bowl becomes an opportunity to see what is on advertisers’ minds at the same time. I’m writing this intro before the game and before I’ve seen the ads, but I already know I will be watching for oligarchs versus rednecks, even though they may be on the same side; form versus function, because appearances seem to matter more than practicality and pragmatism; and how many businesses will try to dodge populist politics versus jumping onto bandwagons. And yet, it is probably the same suite of corporations: cars, beer, sports, escapist movies, perfume, travel, and personal finance. The practice is interesting sociologically, but also is a hint of investment sentiment. Will AI be as prevalent as the Internet was when we capitalized it? How about American-made? Stay tuned. It takes a long time to watch dozens of ads. I expect a beverage may be required, and I’d be startled to see a local microbrew advertising what I choose to drink.
I feel like I should open a beer, crank up some country rock, and wave a flag to get in the mood. Nah. This is always an odd enough experience already.
I miss AdBlitz. It compiled an exhaustive list in previous years.
Universal – Escape to a theme park that is kind of like a movie, so escape to an escape.
Doritos – Aliens want our salty snacks.
Greatness – MAGA? Jesus?
Meta – Celebrities eat art, and Meta does what?
Meta Ray-Ban – Stupid celebrities?
Bosch – Machismo is back.
Ritz – Celebrity freaks?
Pfizer – Drug ads cause anxieties through fear. Skip.
Michelob – Celebrities win at pickle ball.
TurboTax – Weird backwards driving is okay, and she ends up in luxury.
Except for the ad for Jesus, machismo, celebrity, and escapism is back. Oh, and celebrities are better than any of us.
T-Mobile – Starlink/Musk – I’m sure this has been developing for years. Sorry, T-Mobile.
Homes.com – Best? But at what?
Marvel – More escapism.
Dunkin Donuts – Celebrities that are anti-Starbucks more than they’re for something.
DoorDash – More celebrities.
Ram Trucks – A celebrity in a truck they don’t need, in ways it can’t be used.
GoDaddy – Dumb celebrities saved by AI and AR? Sounds like a theme for a new era. Hello, eloi.
*NerdWallet – Finally, my first laugh thanks to a beluga.
Skechers – Old celebrities?
*Lay’s – Potato farmer cuteness, yeah, that worked, I think I’ll have some Kettle Chips. (GF)
SquareSpace – Break stuff to spread the word?
*Hate – Well done showing how ridiculous it is. Will it work?
Little Ceasars – celebrities
Pringles – celebrities
HexClad – Something useful. A pan with aliens but celebrity matters more than why use the pan.
WeatherTech – Still advertising after all these years? More old folks, but at least they show what it does.
Hellman’s – Harry Met Sally – I’m a fan, but I doubt that mayo can do that.
Hims – Selling fear.
Budweiser – Clydesdales – Always a good entry.
Bud Light – Guns and beer.
OpenAI – Progress, and therefore good. Right? Right?
Celebrities, so many celebrities. Are they the only people who matter? Almost three dozen ads so far.
Google Pixel – AI and a phone help craft resume lies, yet real. Good?
Cirkul – A celebrity delivers water bottles. But why Cirkul?
*Mountain Dew – Celebrity and unreal, but at least funny. “None of this makes sense.” And yet, it is closer to a real ad than most of the rest.
Uber Eats – celebrities
Coors – Sloths, cool. Mondays?
Instacart – Quick and relatively clear.
Rocket – Home, country home. “Everyone deserves their shot at the American Dream.” Unity. Serious question: How real is a home for the viewers?
Liquid Death – Ugh! What a thing to say!
Poppi – A new kind of soda. Not bad.
Taco Bell – Anti-celebrity makes a point, with a celebrity.
Nike – “So win.” Good and simple.
Salesforce – celebrities commenting on AI?
NFL – “It Takes All of Us”
My winners
NerdWallet – I enjoyed the humor, and the idea that even belugas have figured out personal finance.
Lay’s – It may be a revelation to some that potato chips come from something that grows in the ground.
Hate – Really anti-hate, but if they’d started with the ending they would’ve lost a lot of folks. Sad that we need an ad like this. Glad someone did it.
Mountain Dew – As silly as it was, it made more sense than several of them.
Nike – Concise, simple, strong and actually created an emotion.
NFL – “It Takes All of Us” as possibly the first NFL ad that I liked because it was about people, not celebrities, not the game. People.
OK. That’s over four dozen ads. I didn’t catch them all, but it’s more than enough for me to notice trends.
I expected more AI. I didn’t expect so many celebrities. Both things are out of touch with regular people. Those who are in the AI world and the celebrity world can believe that their world is everything. They’re missing a lot. One segment of society missing the reality of another segment is not a good sign, especially when it is amplified, displayed, and celebrated as if it was aspirational and normal. Ouch.
Maybe celebrity is safer than reality, at least for a while. Ironically, I think AI is going to redefine reality, and it is going to happen in ways that are going to be more confusing than these ads.
No change to my investing strategy. Still, an educational exercise every year.
PS I really liked the Harrison Ford piece. I’ve always been impressed by him and his approach to life. And, Jeep was good enough to make it happen and mostly get out of the way. Nicely done. (The ad was posted after this post, which I thought covered enough of them. It did, but this one deserved special treatment, hence, the PS.)
This post brought to you by Overwhelm, a product that’s in great supply with more on the way.
(This post also brought to you by some ill health that is the result of a healthcare provider. Tough day, but that’s reality – and may some day be a post.)
Welcome to the end of January 2025, a month that was forecasted to be chaos. At least it didn’t disappoint in that regard. A bull is in the china shop, and it has a baseball bat. (My pardon to bulls. Mythbusters proved they can be quite graceful.) Crockery is hitting the floor as someone takes wild swings in the world simply because it seems like a good idea. What’s an investor to do? What’s any person to do?
Tariffs So, increase the costs of goods sold, penalizing the citizenry as if they were the culprit in some crime. Doesn’t make much sense, but it does affect how to invest and buy things. I’m glad most of my investments are not in China, but I am surprised that Canada is targeted. (Canada?) Regardless, my foreign investments are not in commodities but in technologies where the product may be unique, and therefore, the market may be driven to solutions regardless because they meet unmet needs. Another reason to buy local? Except local has usually been more expensive, and maybe their costs went up too.
Immigrants I don’t think immigrant laborers could’ve organized a better demonstration of their value than forcing millions of them out of the country. Food prices are going to climb. Farms will lose revenue from crop losses. When we finally admit we needed those people, regardless of nationality, they’ll be able to negotiate better wages and conditions – finally. They’ve been due for a long time. I suspect housing prices will rise as fewer contractors also means they can demand higher fees, too. (And I sold my house last year because I couldn’t find contractors willing to work on small jobs. Imagine how tough it might be to get a window, or plumbing, or electrical circuits fixed. Invest in trade schools or DIY classes? Businesses that rely on high-value products that don’t require much labor may be safer. May be.
Refugees And we’ve got refugees, internal refugees. Climate change has forced itself into the top issue in many regions regardless of politics. Fires and floods have always been human worries. Politics is coming in as support networks are taken out, which may drive even more people from fire and flood areas. That’s especially true as rebuilding buildings will require contractors who are in greater demand. Maybe this leads to more manufactured housing because it is labor-efficient, centralized, ideally more affordable, and a proven product. And yet, a critical hurdle may be existing attitudes in the areas refugees are seeking refuge in. I expect the manufactured housing industry welcomes the opportunity to deliver tens of thousands of housing solutions, but homeowners associations and planning boards may say Not In My Back (or front or side) Yard. It’s almost enough to make a person think these states on the north american continent aren’t united.
Regulations Fewer regulations? Sure. Except that we may find that those regulations were there for a reason. Businesses that cheer their repeal may find joy in the short term, but in the long term they may find a declining customer base, and if proper governance returns, they may find themselves in lawsuits from damaged persons and organizations. I’d be less likely to invest in a company that only succeeds when the safeties are off. Regulations are much more whimsical than reality and can shift back within a few votes at a local review board meeting.
The forecasts of chaos may be understated because chaos is hard to predict. Greenland? Really? How about fixing healthcare?
The new rules or lack are confusing. For me, the easiest philosophy to consider is something I tweeted (X’ed?).
Oligarchs will be oligarchs. Not surprised that they only care about oligarchs, and then they turn on each other.
Ultimate power ultimately destroys itself. We can get hit by the shrapnel, but there are also ways to duck or exit the field for a while. After they’ve cratered the landscape, we might find we’re like farmers after a battle, filling in massive divots, being wary of old mine fields, and yet returning to some semblance of our previous life. But in the meantime, maybe bring a periscope because it is good to know what’s happening, and some of the things that will happen will be incredible, as in, not to be believed.
OK. We’re solidly into the new year (2025). What to worry about? What to ponder? What to write about? I guess I’ll write about what I’m worried about and pondering. Spoilers: politics and climate change aren’t the biggest two.
In no particular order aside from convenience, here are some of the things I’m keeping in consideration in a year that I expect will be the most disruptive in my lifetime so far. And, yes, that includes 9/11 and the Internet Boom and Bust.
I’ll get two of the most popular meme topics out of the way.
Politics Let’s get the dirty laundry out of the way. The US is not alone in experiencing weird shifts. I am as likely to get my news from the BBC and its European counterparts (DW, France 24), and CBC as I am from CNN. I hope to find good sources in other hemispheres. The world is going weird. Policies are shifting. Alliances are being questioned. There is a lack of leadership as power vacuums are created and new contenders maneuver to fill them. The current US President and his very open shadow government may accelerate the demise of an empire, but they have limited time to do it and do not have total authority regardless of what they think about it. Hope and cope and tune back in for an update in a little less than four years – unless the US Constitution is rewritten, abolished, or ignored.
Climate Change The climate is changing. Nature didn’t wait for our debate. Deniers delayed the appropriate responses. Now, they get to debate with Nature. Instead of spending $1 for defense against disasters we will be spending at least $7 for recovery – and I suspect that number is low. Put a T behind those dollar signs if that helps put things in perspective. Put a 0 before the T and after the number, because we’re more likely to be dealing in the tens of trillions of dollars range for what’s about to impact us.
In no particular order:
Social Injustice The bad news is that because of the Internet we are now aware of social injustices around the world. The good news is that the bad news is less likely to be able to hide. And yet, the change from medieval thinking to global justice is measured in generations and centuries, not years. The US is still effectively resolving the Civil War (aka The War Between The States). The Middle East is the eternal poster child for “never forget”. And yet, a viral meme can change societal awarenesses in a few moments. The struggle is enormous, but it is people changing people, which means it is in our control.
Refugees Pick your crisis and your worry. People are moving to find better lives, sometimes by choice, too frequently by necessity. People are walking thousands of miles and crossing several borders because that is still better than staying where they were. Fires and floods are eliminating regions, causing migrations to places that may already have issues from infrastructure to sustainability. The lack of a global response to refugee flight is proof that our society has yet to find common values, morals, and goals. Refugee flight is also proof that the need for solutions isn’t academic or merely a political argument. Millions of people are already moving. If they’re denied for too long and too harshly, they may enact solutions the non-refugees disagree with.
Eloi Oligarchs Meanwhile, from people who have lost everything except for what they can carry, Oligarchs are proudly taking control, acting as if wealth equals intelligence, and accidentally displaying how ignorant they can be. If it wasn’t for luck, how many of them would be just like the rest of us? In this society, money does equal power, these people are addicted to power, and the rest of us are likely to have to deal with their whims then clean up their mess. Seen from the outside, they seem to be reaching unsustainable heights. When they crash back, we’ll be amongst the debris if we survive the shrapnel. A lesson from karate is to let those who are proud of their power beat themselves up. Their way of living is unhealthy, and that may be what brings them back into check.
Pandemic The pandemic isn’t over. Also, pick your pandemic. Polio might be back? People resist vaccines because they aren’t pristine and perfect? Evidently, even calling something The Black Death is not enough to convince people to protect other people by fighting the bacteria and viruses rather than each other. At the start of the Covid epidemic, one set of researchers called it a ‘practice pandemic’. Covid is a pandemic, more virulent than the flu, but not as virulent as bubonic plague; yet, it mutates and we can’t predict that it won’t become as dangerous, or more. In the meantime, conservative estimates place the death count at 7 million. Considering imperfect reporting, the total is estimated at 20 million, and it continues to kill, and too many continue to ignore it.
Epic Hack A few lines of code and the system can crash. Have you been on a voluntary digital detox lately? Leave the phone and computer behind and realize how reliant we are on instant information. Doing business by paper isn’t practical anymore, yet mess up Google for a day and lives will be lost. Even a temporary collapse of Amazon would be a disaster to too many. And yet, we’ve already witnessed outages caused by slightly buggy updates. Ironically, with a big enough hack, the only way for the news to get around may be word-of-mouth in a global-sized game of post office. Chaos can ensue, and it probably will take less than most realize.
Currencies Basic economies are having their assumptions challenged. The insurance industries are finding that their profit models can’t deal with climate change, political whims, and various disasters. Wars are getting expensive again. Conflicts are as likely to be sanctions instead of weapons. Russia may have gained a respite because of US politics (and they are probably linked), but its assault on Ukraine increasingly makes it look more like a hollow economy. Check back through history and see that military spending has gutted countries and shrunk their currencies. If a major country like the US suddenly lost the world’s confidence, then all currencies may find themselves in crisis. It will probably be survivable, but eliminating social nets and personal savings would be a historic disaster.
Satellites Satellites are giving us good things. It is possible to have too much of a good thing. It is possible to have too many satellites. Satellites bump into satellites. Incredible coordinating efforts minimize the likelihood, but as more satellites are launched the probability of collision increases. Not all satellites are discarded in the atmosphere when they are no longer needed. Some stagger along, hopefully in graveyard orbits, but at least for now, there’s little management of that cemetery. And then came Starlink, a good idea that is so successful that we’ve accepted the negative impact for astronomers, and an idea so good that their thousands of satellites are being joined by other constellations of satellites. A particularly bad collision could cascade through, creating a cloud of debris that negates our advances in space. Very disruptive and requiring years or decades to clean up the mess.
But these are the big swingers that can change everything in ways we have trouble imagining:
AI Artificial Intelligence is in everything! Great. I can’t find the Harry Potter quote, but it is a reminder that great does not always mean good. AI is great, but one of my worries is that much of the conversation is about AI as if it is an end point and that nothing can happen until then. Look at humans. Major mistakes can be made by people who think they are intelligent, great. Wars have been fought to counter such consequences. If AI develops autonomous intelligence, there is no reason why it will stop when it equals normal human intelligence or genius intelligence. Why should it stop? We may want it to, but our desires won’t have any power. An AI can emerge at computer speeds instead of human speeds. The possibility of a AI Digital Singularity is increasing, and can happen sooner than anything listed above. On the plus side, AI might also produce solutions to various crises far sooner than we humans would manage. On the icky side, only luck can predict what will happen if a sufficiently capable artificial intelligence gains sufficient control, whether it is intelligent or not.
Aliens (seriously) Let me finish with something that sounds outlandish, and literally would be. The answer is never aliens, and yet, someday it will be. That day can be closer. We haven’t found them. They haven’t publicly contacted us. Maybe there’s no one else out there, in which it is a great waste of space. Have I hit the major tropes? In reality, within the last several years, our ability to see into the universe has dramatically improved. It may seem like we’ve seen it all, but I keep in mind that astronomers continue to oversubscribe telescope time because there’s so much that’s unseen. The grand photos are magnificent, and yet are frequently of a patch of sky smaller than a grain of rice held at arms’ length. It is foolish to assume that what we’ve seen is the same everywhere. And then, there’s the UFO (check your knee-jerk reaction) and the recent UAP (Unidentified Aerial Phenomena). The media continues to treat it with giggles and grins; yet the US Defense Department is finally recognizing that they can’t defend against them. Too many US pilots have seen them. The sensors pick them up, yet we can’t catch or get close to them. The common response is that they’d be from stars far away, yet they may also be a lifeform from here, Earth, but in some unexplored corner or depth or whatever that we’ve missed or overlooked or improperly dismissed. I suspect that if they exist they’d come in peace, if they have that concept. But, whether from here, out there, or some other dimension, we’re more likely to witness them now, and we are unprepared to deal with the disruption.
Conclusion Well, that certainly feels like a core dump. Unpolished, yet maybe that’s the best way to chronicle and summarize my feelings and thoughts on one day in January 2025. Each topic has bookshelves devoted to it, I am sure. It is impossible to research all of them, but I see a danger in picking one and thinking and planning for only dealing with that one. Our world in now interconnected. Many of the issues are interconnected. Working within blinders can be counterproductive. Refugees are a political crisis, but they can be caused by a political crisis and create a climate crisis, and a pandemic, and may convince someone to hack the system in protest.
Whew. I am glad it is a sunny day, though chilly. As one friend asked; “How do you keep all of this in your head at the same time?” I figure everyone is doing this, or something similar. Everyone has many things to keep in mind. Some people have three jobs, kids, health issues, and uncertain housing. My thoughts may be existential and academic, but there are thousands of homeowners trying to recover from fires and floods who know what really matters in their life: an overwhelming list of unmet necessities. I’ll be thankful relieving a bit of internal mental pressure by delivering this, then getting ready for a dance. We may have much to worry about, but while I’m here, I’ll dance.
PS One other consequence of thinking through so many things is my Exodus/Genesis science fiction series: Firewatcher and Fire Race. See? It does all come together.
Some moments become short videos on replay inside my memories. During a recent appointment, I said the simple sentence; “I need a vacation.” The therapist somewhat playfully said; “OK. Stop describing anything else. When someone says that, they mean it. Listen to yourself, take a vacation.” A therapist with a sense of humor and timing, very valuable. I’m taking a vacation.
(By the way, one way we stop stigmatizing mental health issues is by recognizing, working on treating them, and not hiding the effort. Being poor is unhealthy. Being poor for twelve years, well, there’s a lot to unwind. I’m glad I have help. Besides, it means my friends get to hear more of the good news while someone else listens to sticky points in the bad news.)
I’m taking a vacation, and I suspect no one would notice if I didn’t mention it, but not mentioning it supports a facade of ‘the tireless worker’. Tireless? Ha! I’m tired. I think I’ll take a vacation.
I planned a pretty good one, I thought. The idea was to take a vacation after I mentioned it. It is too easy to procrastinate taking time off. It is also winter, which narrows the possibilities. Ski areas are booked up and lots of other places are closed down. Ah, but a train ride from Seattle to Pittsburgh would mean no driving, ever-changing scenery (when the Sun wasn’t blocked by clouds or the planet), and a visit with family (details of which I won’t describe.) Hello, Amtrak! Make lots of reservations. Coordinate with everyone else. Get ready. And. And…Amtrak canceled the trip. It’s winter, which evidently makes a difference. Engage contingency plans.
I’m calling it a vacation, but I prefer the term used by podcast partner, Steve Smolinsky – Clarity Break. Vacations can be for fun, or relaxation, or therapy, or – vacations can be for the sake of vacations. Steve has written and talked about something that is obvious and discussed but frequently overlooked. Quiet time, time spent doing something where habits can’t follow breaks habits and lets the mind unwind. Surprisingly, quiet time also lets the quiet parts of the mind finally be heard. Clarity ensues.
But where to go? If the mountains are busy, go to the coast. Even the cold, wet, Olympic Peninsula coast is busy. I forgot about the three-day weekend for MLK Jr. Finally, I found a place relatively close to home, a place I’ve visited but never stayed at: La Push. A few nights in a seaside cabin. Sounds romantic. Ah, but it’s only me. Sounds quiet, except for waves and gulls.
It also breaks conventions. As I understand it, it is on tribal land, National Park land, and so far on the edge that there may not be internet (gasp!), or hot water (shiver, but maybe only for a night), though I’m hoping for heat and electricity. Stay tuned. I remember winter tent camping. At least I’ll be in a cabin.
I mention all of this even though it is something I’m sure you’ve heard before. Take care of yourself. I edit that to, take care of yourself as you can. I haven’t taken an entire week off in over a decade, and not by choice. Did I use the word ‘poor’ earlier? Yeah. That.
Taking care of yourself is a necessity, and yet affording it at will can be a luxury. American workers are notorious for not taking all of their vacation time, and I’m not surprised. Even paid time off costs money unless the person stays home and stares at the walls. (Did I mention that other people might benefit from a therapist, too?)
I also know me. Even without the internet, I’ll probably write, and more accurately, type. Losing ideas can be frustrating. As I just mentioned to someone on social media (bluesky?), I’m working on the sequel to Dream. Invest. Live., a sequel to the Exodus/Genesis series, and of course, my blogs and podcast work. It sounds like a lot, but I’ve throttled down to about one-third speed since finishing Fire Race. Oh yeah, and there’s the movie screenplay I’m working on. Yeah. I need a vacation.
The cost of this vacation will not cost wow, but it will feel like it because I am out of practice and still cautious. Poor does that. This scene from White Christmas came to mind when Phil and Bob talk about how much something is going to cost. Phil Davis: How much is “wow”? Bob Wallace: It’s right in between, uh, between “ouch” and “boing” Fortunately, this trip will be closer to ouch than boing, but if I didn’t take it at all, the hospital bill may be boing and ouch and oh dear.
Dear Therapist, Thanks for the kick in the butt or at least the gentle noogie. I might even get that train trip in later, and there’s a music festival I’d like to dance at, and some friends I haven’t seen in years, and hiking and biking and…and I’ll check back on that financial caution and the world in general. You see, I buy lottery tickets, and some of my stocks look a lot like them.
Cheers. I’ll be back soon.
(PS My apologies for skipping the links and photos and such, but, you see, I’ve got this vacation thing going on.)
I am so thankful for perspective, patience, and diversification. Two of my most recent darling stocks were suddenly jilted by the market. LUNR and QBTS dropped, -7% for LUNR and -36% for QBTS. 36%! Ouch. Eep. Oops. Oh well. That ‘Oh well’ is why I wasn’t responding the way some expected. I’m not saying I liked seeing it happen, but it is handy to check those numbers against their relative performance, be glad I am diversified, and be glad I have cash, just in case.
This week’s activity is particularly timely because I just produced and posted my Semi-Annual Portfolio Exercise. Check it for my unprofessional and unofficial opinion of the companies represented by my stocks. Things looked rosier way back then in 2024.
LUNR has actually had good news. They’re getting to launch their next lunar payload. Very cool. Very exciting, or at least a reason for hoping for a successful mission, as well as the aerospace companion of hoping it doesn’t do something like blow up or fall over. But the stock was down 7%. What’s with that? It is convenient to have one reason, but every stock has its price determined by a multitude of buyers and sellers with just as many motivations. One to pick from is whether a non-governmental CEO is more interested in Mars than the Moon. Whatever.
QBTS announced a 120% increase in revenues. Yay! And the stock went down 36% in one week. This one has an easier explanation. QBTS is selling quantum computing solutions now. Congratulations. A CEO of a different company stated that quantum computing won’t be real for another twenty years. Ah, dude. Check that calendar. A startup like QBTS has great news and a small voice compared to one person at a mega-corp, evidently. QBTS made a factual statement. The other guy made a guess. I’ll stick with the factual statement.
“A month ago, some stocks got busy, possibly because of the election (Election Impact – 2024). The companies had good news, but I didn’t think it warranted their rise, and I wasn’t complaining.
November 29, 2024 – LUNR up ~96%, QBTS up ~165% in 1 month December 20, 2024 – LUNR up ~270%, QBTS up ~ 520% in 6 months December 27, 2024 – LUNR up ~419%, QBTS up ~761% in 6 months”
Allow me to bring that up to date.
January 10, 2025 – LUNR up ~326%, QBTS up ~388% in 6 months
Satisfactory?
They could crater. (And yes, I kept in the LUNR pun simply because it was easier than thinking of something to replace it.) They could also rebound. They could return to course. Despite financial analyses, both companies are operating (and creating) industries for which there is no benchmark. No one knows how big the lunar market will be. No one knows how big the quantum computing market will be. For some entertainment, browse the stock discussion boards and find analyses/estimates/guesses/wishes that are multiple times above today’s prices. (LUNR $17.87 , QBTS $5.77) LUNR is a ~$2.7B company. QBTS is a ~$1.5B company. How about $10B? No one knows. Everyone is guessing.
As an investor, my near-term hopes are already exceeded, and I’m willing to wait to see what happens as we slide further into that long-term future.
A recent commenter commented that some of these investments are “all-or-nothing”. Sure. I can understand that perspective. I wrote a book about personal finance, but I do not think many people should invest the way I do. For politeness, I’ll paraphrase a friend who called me a “wild-haired investor.” One thing I find fascinating is contrasting that comment to the ones who consider me stodgy because I invest instead of trade, and the one who described my overall strategy as “get-rich-slowly.” I figure this puts me in the middle. Have I ever described the guy who traded on margin and maxed out his credit card to do it? That’s how far away that edge is. (It didn’t work.)
I write this because, until an investor has experienced those ups and downs, it is too easy to have emotions bob around with every swing. I like the ups. I don’t like the downs. But I’ve been expecting a down because these ups have been so far up.
Let’s see where they go next. You see, I have these other stocks…
What’s been popular in 2024? I mean which of my posts on this blog have been popular. Gotta keep it specific, otherwise, go find a more global list in Google.
This blog has been active since November 2008. I’d recently retired, moved to Whidbey Island, bought a house which was my first true home, and was convinced by friends that I should write a book about personal finance because I had retired at 38 years old, and could explain stocks reasonably well. One of my neighbors was Vicki Robin, author of Your Money or Your Life. She agreed, and offered to do a joint launch if I finished in time. Dream. Invest. Live. was born. And then the market crashed, Apple abandoned the software for hosting my blog, I lost access to the blog’s first 200 posts, and started over in September 2010 as I walked across Scotland, which became a different book and blog, Walking Thinking Drinking Across Scotland.
The Great Recession had begun (which I consider the Second Great Depression). My stocks were hurt, but two rallied to drive my net worth up while others’ went down. AMSC & DNDN both were then the victims of white collar crime. Years later, the criminals were found guilty, but the value had been erased. That and a few other events that were, as friends put it, a perfect storm of bad luck, led me into more than a decade of watching my net worth plummet 98%, little income, and subsequent health issues. Being poor is painful. An attempt at being a realtor was interrupted by the pandemic. It was also interrupted by the fact that I have not been good at sales. It wasn’t until this year when the real estate market had recovered enough for me to sell my home, get out of debt, and back into investing in stocks.
That’s much of the course of my roller-coaster ride through America’s wealth classes, so far. I’ve started writing that book, partly as a sequel to Dream. Invest. Live. The working title: From Middle-class to Millionaire to Mostly Mudding By.
Evidently that book is on my mind because all I intended to do was provide an abstract to the list of popular posts in 2024. This prelude does, however, explain which posts were popular, particularly those from previous years. Each post was from a different perspective. At over 1,000 posts, that’s a lot of material. Congratulations to anyone who has read them all. (Anyone?) That’s appropriate as it has become obvious to me that one thing I can provide is a variety of perspectives on some perpetual topics. Watch this blog, and one of my new blogs, TomTheWriter.com, for details and progress.
But, what did you and other readers find most worth reading?
Over the lifetime (so far) of this blog, the ten most popular posts are:
Wither Or Whether MVIS (2020)
One Confused ObamaCare Applicant (2013)
Trust Your Self (2021)
A Bow To Drewslist (2012)
Valuing MVIS Looking Back And Forward (2021)
An MVIS Rabbit Hole 20 Years Deep (2021)
Micro Vision (2011)
MicroVision MVIS Valuation Shift (2021)
HoloLens2 And MicroVision (2019)
MicroVision Before And After (2016)
The list hasn’t changed much from previous years. MVIS is still the hottest topic, even from posts that are years old. This blog appears to be tied to this one company despite a much broader range of topics that I’ve written about. If only MVIS would succeed…
In 2024, the most popular posts were a more current blend.
A Tiny Experiment (2024)
Fresh Idea – Dockside Tidal Power (2016)
LLAP – One Company One Story (2023)
Tiny House Choices (2024)
My Money (And Almost My House) Lost In The Wire (2024)
What Happened To WNDW (2023)
Intuitive Machine Intuition (2024)
Time To Buy But What (2024)
Loving Living Leaving A Tourist Town (2024)
For Want Of A Nut – A Zwilling Nut (2023)
What? No MVIS? Well, MVIS hasn’t done anything of note. I’m cheered and intrigued by my Dockside Tidal Power idea remaining popular after almost a decade. Is someone building it? I hope. I hope. The Tiny House interest has been strong enough that it has its own blog (https://www.mytinyexperiment.com/), which will also skew these traffic numbers by being elsewhere as it peels off. I’ve been told that the post about my money being Lost In The Wire was very open and appreciated as I survived a dramatic upset caused by overly secure security measures. Stocks came back, particularly LUNR. On a serious note, I tried to find the humor in being squeezed out of a tourist town. And then, a small topic that attracted lots of attention, Zwilling sent me a sweet set of kitchen poultry sheers as an example of smart customer service.
2025? It’s looking weird. But, we’re practiced at that. Stay tuned, and thanks for being here.
Well, that certainly wasn’t dull. A little over six months ago, I sold my small house near a tourist town on an island, and moved to a big tiny house near a tourist town on a peninsula. Hmm. That doesn’t sound like much of a change, but it is the easy part to see and visualize. A little over six months ago, I had a mortgage and a home equity loan with no money left for repairs and maintenance, and now am debt-free even as I spend money for improvements. Oh yeah, and I was able to buy back into the stock market. I’ve gone from 20 months of dwindling cash reserves to about three years of cash reserves to, since the election, at least a decade of cash reserves. Whew. Yay. Happy New Year.
Call it wisdom, or timing, or luck, or manifestation, or whatever. I didn’t sell my house at a peak (Zillow thinks it has gone up ~8% since then), but if I was going to have to sell, I wanted to sell without worrying about elections. My worry was that, if Social Security was purposely destabilized, the real estate market and the economy may both suffer. If millions of people couldn’t afford their homes, they may glut the market as they sold their biggest investment, their house, for cash. I was trapped by that in the Great Recession (the Second Great Depression) and didn’t want to be trapped again. I found a tiny house that I liked well enough (MyTinyExperiment.com), gave myself enough months for my house to sell, it sold quickly, which meant I was clear and settled in (a non-trivial experience) in time for the election. Whew. I’m glad I did what I did.
And now I finally get to the stock stuff. The details are scattered throughout several months of this blog’s posts. I started with a portfolio barely large enough to buy a good used car, and took about a third of the house sale’s profits to buttress existing positions (GERN, MVIS, LCTX), bought new positions (LUNR, QBTS, SLDP), held one third for cash contingencies, and held one third for possible taxes. Wait a few months while I move in and learn that, as I suspected, I’d owned my home for long enough that I didn’t have to pay taxes on the sale. That third then went into buttressing those positions, plus adding another (GMGMF). Along the way, I sold stock in two companies that had great ideas but questionable executions (WNDW, SOLO).
But, how did it go?
GERN – I expected more of GERN because they finally received FDA approval for one of their cancer treatments – but the stock has drifted down. I wonder if management understood the technical and medical side, but not the business side. Or am I merely impatient. 2025 will decide that.
LCTX – Right behind GERN, and somewhat historically related, I thought the stock would progress because the treatments for spinal cord injuries and dry-eye macular degeneration were proceeding. But now, they’re threatened with delisting. How’d that happen? I worry.
MVIS – MVIS had great promise and didn’t deliver? Yep. As always -but there’s a recent update that I hope to remember to mention later in the post.
XOS/SOLO and WNDW – They tripped, fumbled, stumbled, and became nuisances more than investments. If they turn around the returns may be great, but I simplified by selling them. I do these semi-annual reviews for just such a reason. I felt the lottery would be more likely.
And that was for the stocks that I’ve held for years/decades.
Now for the stocks I’ve held for months.
LUNR – Their lunar lander fell over, but it did land. And then, they landed a multi-year, possibly >$4B NASA contract, and the stock did very well. And then Elon Musk was elected, rumors were born that NASA’s workload might go to more commercial companies, and the stock became exuberant. As I type this, the stock is up >400% in six months.
QBTS – Quantum computing is enticing, but the risks are high as there’s been too little evidence of its usefulness to properly value the stock, so it languished – and then Google produced an example and QBTS rose and rose. As I type, the stock is up >600% in six months. It rose enough that I sold off a fifth of my holding and reclaimed my original investment. The rest is profit.
SLDP, GMGMF – Solid batteries aren’t engaging for small talk, but more folks are driving electric vehicles, people want longer battery life, and more are aware that Lithium-ion batteries have some safety issues. If something can charge quicker, go farther, be safer, and not cost too much, it might be a competitor. Both companies are working on that. SLDP may be farther along (I think), and GMGMF has higher risk but some amazing possibilities from their graphene-based approach. GMGMF is too new in my portfolio. SLDP, however, had fallen until the middle of December. It has doubled since then.
I find it interesting that the stocks I’ve held for decades have been outperformed by the stocks I’ve held for months – and then MVIS almost doubled since mid-December as well because they might finally increase production on something, anything.
With performances like these, it is easy to get into dream mode (Dream. Invest. Live.). But as I mentioned in a previous post, I may also be witnessing irrational exuberance. I’ve seen it before, as well as its consequence. I’ve benefited from it before, but trusted too much to logic when it became irrational pessimism.
I am dreaming, and planning, and watching. Politics isn’t the only effect to watch in 2025. I think AI is far enough along to already be disruptive, and I see no reason for its reach and velocity to find a reasonable limit. Climate change isn’t changing its timeline because we continue to debate it, as if debating a house fire while standing inside it makes sense. Individuals and corporations are, however, acting, hence the desire and need for energy efficiency, decarbonization, and mobilization advances. I also think urbanization is swinging to de-urbanization because remote work, education, and living are more sustainable on an individual level, hence the demand for decentralized power and connectivity. These trends aren’t the only ones, but they’re busy now, and therefore worth watching.
Whew. Is that enough? Is that enough for a portfolio review? It is for me, and that’s who I do all of this for. So, while I do it, I might as well share it. I hope you’re find it useful, even if only as an example of what you can do for you.
And, I still buy lottery tickets.
Read on. And good luck.
Below are my synopses of my stocks.
INTRO Here’s my semi-annual exercise to see if I remember why I own the stocks I own, and so I can check back and see if their stories have changed. I post in case it helps others too.
D-Wave Quantum
QBTS (market cap is $2.44B was $0.183B)
D-Wave Quantum, more easily typed as its trading symbol QBTS is one of the leading quantum computer companies. Harken back to the early days of the PC when folks and organizations wondered what the rest of us would use a computer for. To me, quantum computing represents a larger shift across society than the PC did in its era. It is an unknowably large market. Another way of describing that: no one knows but many people hope – even if they don’t know why.
QBTS seems to be in the midst of clearing a hurdle to commercialization. The company has gone from lab tests and theoretical applications and benefits to real demonstrable results, but not to a consistent business model, yet. Is it on that cusp? Large cash flows have swept into the investment field for QBTS and its competitors. I don’t mind; that’s why I buy small overlooked companies. Frequently, I have to wait years for them to be found. This time, it was only a few months. I’m not complaining.
On the technical and conservative side, I’d feel more confident with verifiable use cases that lead to consistent revenues. That may take a few quarters because the large revenues are usually tied to large, conservative companies. Another possibility is a buyout from one of those trillion dollar companies. Another catalyst can be quantum computing’s interactions with AI (Artificial Intelligence). Both technologies are in a similar state. Coupling them is likely to have unintended consequences.
In the meantime, QBTS’ price has certainly been dynamic.
DISCLOSURE LTBH since 2024, i.e. bought recently, maxed out my personal arbitrary share limit, and then sold enough to recoup my initial investment.
(I’ve also collected links to the other discussion boards and my other stocks over on my blog. https://trimbathcreative.net/)
INTRO Here’s my semi-annual exercise to see if I remember why I own the stocks I own, and so I can check back and see if their stories have changed. I post in case it helps others too.
Intuitive Machines
LUNR (market cap is $2.77B was $0.404B)
Intuitive Machines, more readily typed as LUNR, is an aerospace company helping create the part of the space economy that deals with the Moon. They let others launch the rockets and LUNR deals with the satellites, landers, and such. The sky’s the limit? Ha! They’re beyond the sky. They’re also literally on a frontier that is mostly empty, which can be a good thing or a bad thing. So far they’re proving themselves through several successful missions, and have been treated with greater grace than I expected after their lunar lander fell over.
I spent just enough years working on rockets and satellites to appreciate their efforts, many of their risks, and have a hint of their potential. My ultra-short synopsis for starting conversations is that, while not exactly the same, LUNR may be for the moon what SpaceX is for everything. Note ‘may’. Rockets blow up. Landers fall over. Equipment breaks and can’t be repaired. But/And they’re actually doing it, not just talking about it.
One twist from the US Presidential election is that at least some of NASA’s role may be shifted to commercial vendors. That may explain some of the enthusiasm for LUNR’s stock. I expect chaos. I also recognize that, if LUNR’s management is thinking ahead as I am, LUNR’s business opportunities may suddenly become broader. It may not be something for them to act on, but it should be worth creating contingency plans.
Regardless of politics, I invested in LUNR because I have been a fan of space commercialization since 1976. (Go L5!) I hoped it wouldn’t take this long, but I’m glad if I can be a part of it at least this way.
DISCLOSURE LTBH since 2024, i.e. bought recently and intending to hold as the industry advances.
(I’ve also collected links to the other discussion boards and my other stocks over on my blog. https://trimbathcreative.net/)
INTRO Here’s my semi-annual exercise to see if I remember why I own the stocks I own, and so I can check back and see if their stories have changed. I post in case it helps others too.
Solid Power
SLDP (market cap is $0.341B was $0.292B)
Solid Power is a company that makes solid batteries. Simple enough? Many batteries in electric vehicles and devices use a liquid to conduct the chemistry and hence the electricity. While Lithium-ion batteries are ubiquitous, they are also fragile and dangerous. Solid batteries are more robust and safer. In my opinion, the technology that enables today’s Li-ion batteries is due for a generational shift. One option is to go to solid state, hence my investment in SLDP.
Solid Power is using sulfide-based electrolytes. I’d like to claim that I understand the electro-chemical nuances, but I will admit to ignorance. That is one reason I conduct this semi-annual portfolio, to highlight to myself deficiencies in my knowledge of the company that warrant more research from me. My assessment of the likelihood of a shift is based on some of my tracking of SLDP’s news, but also because I am now aware of the impressive number of startups working on the next generation of batteries. SLDP may be the best, or not. But, are they good enough to become profitable? The number of batteries required for our mobilized and decentralized civilization suggests a market large enough for several suppliers.
I will continue to Hold, and I will research further as well as possibly make at least one other investment in the industry.
DISCLOSURE LTBH since 2024, i.e. bought recently and intending to hold as the technology advances, hopefully to profitability because this could enable greater sustainability in my estimation. I was about to buy more near the end of 2024, hesitated, and missed what looks like a good opportunity.
(I’ve also collected links to the other discussion boards and my other stocks over on my blog. https://trimbathcreative.net/)
INTRO Here’s my semi-annual exercise to see if I remember why I own the stocks I own, and so I can check back and see if their stories have changed. I post in case it helps others too.
Graphene Manufacturing Group
GMGMF (market cap is $0.062B)
Graphene Manufacturing Group is developing higher-performance batteries, as well as other products partly enabled by incorporating graphene into the product. Ideally, graphene allows higher densities or smaller packing than standard lithium-ion batteries.
To me, lithium-ion was obviously an industry-changing advance, but is also a technology ready for a generational change. They’re proven the adoptability of mobile electrical devices in everything from laptops to planes, trains, and automobiles. Their use has also revealed problems with politics, supply chains, special materials, waste disposal, safety, and performance issues like range anxiety. Solid batteries and advances like the use of graphene may be that next generation.
GMGMF is small, but with good exposure and at least some commercial success. They are also an Australian company, which may be less problematic than Chinese companies, but may also be more problematic for US investors.
DISCLOSURE I tend to LTBH, but only bought GMGMF recently. Circa 2023, I produced a video about the company on my One Company One Story YouTube channel.
(I’ve also collected links to the other discussion boards and my other stocks over on my blog. https://trimbathcreative.net/)
INTRO Here’s my semi-annual exercise to see if I remember why I own the stocks I own, and so I can check back and see if their stories have changed. I post in case it helps others too.
Geron
GERN (market cap is $2.14B was $2.52B)
Geron (GERN) is an advanced biotech company that has recently (finally?) received FDA approval for their first treatment, a telomere-based technology for treating a type of blood cancer. They have other treatments in their pipeline, but my main interest is this first treatment because of the FDA approval. The approval enables GERN to more confidently advance other treatments, ideally in unmet areas with little competition.
My main concern is that I expected the approval to more immediately find use, acceptance, and subsequently revenues. Not yet. Is it just a matter of patience? One possibility is that the company has been in development mode for so long that they are having a slower or more difficult time transitioning to marketing, treatments, – and the revenues they need for sustainability. Another possibility may be a reliance on a buyout. For humanitarian reasons I hope all that is required is patience. For investment reasons I hope they advance the treatment and the company by remaining independent.
My experience with the first occurrence of Dendreon (DNDN, https://trimbathcreative.net/?s=dndn) dampens my enthusiasm. They had an FDA-approved cancer vaccine, were actively undermined, the bad guys were found guilty, but the shareholders lost their money, or at least I did. Hopefully, that won’t happen this time.
DISCLOSURE LTBH since 1999 and continuing to hold. I bought more after selling my house.
(I’ve also collected links to the other discussion boards and my other stocks over on my blog. https://trimbathcreative.net/
INTRO Here’s my semi-annual exercise to see if I remember why I own the stocks I own, and so I can check back and see if their stories have changed. I post in case it helps others too.
Lineage Cell Therapeutics
LCTX (market cap is $0.110B was $0.165B)
Lineage Cell Therapuetics (LCTX) is a leading edge biotech primarily focused on treating spinal cord injuries and macular visual degeneration via stem cells. They have demonstrated at least partial success in both and have been making progress towards applying for FDA approval. Even their partial success exceeds competitors’ accomplishments, as I understand it. Because so few treatments exist, if any, there is hope that the FDA process may be expedited – but bureaucracies can be quite conservative.
I am encouraged by the progress, but dismayed by the lull in advancing the narrative and any news from the regulatory authorities. I am discouraged by the significant drop in the share price and wonder if there is significant unreported news, or is the investing community witnessing a short episode unrelated to the company’s progress?
DISCLOSURE LTBH by habit, but having to remember that my LCTX/BTX holdings came from AST (2014) which was spun off from GERN (which I’ve held since 1999). I hear patience pays, but it is easy to have doubts after twenty years of waiting. I recently purchased additional shares from cash from a real estate sale.
(I’ve also collected links to the other discussion boards and my other stocks over on my blog https://trimbathcreative.net/ & from my One Company One Story series on YouTube
INTRO Here’s my semi-annual exercise to see if I remember why I own the stocks I own, and so I can check back and see if their stories have changed. I post in case it helps others too.
MicroVision
MVIS (market cap is $0.287B was $0.213B)
I’ve been Holding and watching MVIS for over two decades. Pardon me as a copy&paste seems most efficient. (Some edits added, but nothing signficant because nothing seems to have changed except details.)
Another era of MVIS doldrums. Very little new news relative to the previous years/decades.
It is tempting to simply copy what I wrote at the end of 2022, so I will; then, I’ll add more (but very little because so little has changed.).
“Oh, MicroVision; will it be yet again another 6-9 months, or 9-18 months, or longer?” Well, it hasn’t been any of the previous hoped-for periods for the last twenty years – though there was that time of flirting with hope…” (circa 2021).
MicroVision is a electronics component manufacturer developing, and to some extent selling, elecro-optical units based on a chip-sized oscillating mirror. It is a simple and ingenious design defended by a long list of patents. Currently the greatest public hope for the company are the LiDAR sensors targeted at the autonomous vehicle market. MicroVision’s advantage is based on the chip’s scalability, the lack of pixel-sized constraints (as compared to LEDs), lower power requirements, and small package.
Before LiDAR, the company targeted short-throw projectors, projectors embedded in smartphones, augmented reality eyewear (see Hololens and more), as well as game controllers, bar code scanners, and orthoscopes. And probably more. The company has always operated under constraints from NDAs, the need to protect competition sensitive product developments, and some exclusive contracts that were ill-suited for the company, in retrospect.
It is easy to imagine that the company wasn’t persistent enough in pursuing some of those products as they were first movers in those fields. Now, competition has caught up. Also, corporate hopes pinned on singular products languished if the product or customer failed to deliver. Each CEO also resteers the company to distinguish their era from the previous one. The effect has been for the company to be seen as a tech test bench play shop that is dependent on demos and customers rather than faith in the company’s products to lead to financial success.
I remember when… Once upon a time, profitability was described as a possibility for 2003. (Previous notes had a note also suggesting 2023. Irony?)
As stated above; “Oh, MicroVision; will it be yet again another 6-9 months, or 9-18 months, or longer?”
If it succeeds, its rise may be magnificent, which is one reason to own shares now. My shares are now old enough to have graduated college, worked for a few years, then gone back for a Masters, started a family, had kids, and watch them enter school. How much longer will it take for something positive, significant, and quantifiable to finally happen?
For even more details, follow my blog’s tags for MicroVision and MVIS, which reach back a decade.
DISCLOSURE LTBH since 1999 (though the very first shares are gone). Dilution means that I no longer have more than enough if the company finally succeeds and the stock reaches the heights I think are possible. Oddly enough, a cash infusion from another source and the depressed price made it easy and cheap to buy back in, not because I know anything new but because the market is exhibiting irrational exuberance which might include MVIS; and because some day, some day…
(I’ve also collected links to the other discussion boards and my other stocks over on my blog https://trimbathcreative.net/
Really. I was going to take this week off. But how could I ignore the stock market this week? Usually, at best, there’d be a Santa Clause rally, which I never believed in. This year saw a rally around the holiday, which seemed more like an accelerated reprise of the Internet Bubble’s irrational exuberance. (Is the Internet Bubble so long ago that many don’t remember it? Wow.) This is a good time to capture my thoughts for me and for anyone else who is interested. Times like these are surprisingly easy to forget.
Last week’s post (Done With Stock Shopping – Not) was also supposed to be a quiet week, but some stocks got busy, so I thought I should mention them.
A month ago, some stocks got busy, possibly because of the election (Election Impact – 2024). The companies had good news, but I didn’t think it warranted their rise, and I wasn’t complaining.
November 29, 2024 – LUNR up ~96%, QBTS up ~165% in 1 month December 20, 2024 – LUNR up ~270%, QBTS up ~ 520% in 6 months December 27, 2024 – LUNR up ~419%, QBTS up ~761% in 6 months
Google FinanceGoogle Finance
OK. OK. I can rationalize that away as a continuance of the election impact. Maybe aerospace will shift from government to commercial because Musk is running things. Maybe quantum computing will surge as defense money goes into tech, or because Google Research did some good work, or, – it’s all a guess. Not complaining. Took enough profits out of QBTS to recoup my initial investment. May do the same with LUNR in a bit, but…
If that was all there was to the story, then there isn’t much need to document an extrapolation of expectations.
And then this week happened to more of my stocks. Two biotechs didn’t do well: GERN -7.97%, LCTX -4.42%. But that’s the same trend as before. (Come on, folks, you’re making progress. Why doesn’t anyone seem to care?) I already mentioned LUNR and QBTS, but there they are with my other stocks from this week. GMGMF up 8.79% LUNR up 48.19% MVIS up 60.60% QBTS up 68.54% SLDP up 88.50%
MVIS is on that list. MVIS! Long-time readers can know how rare that is. SLDP, another one known for languishing, relatively, was busy. Most of these moves are on barely any news.
Cue a tiny bell ringing from the historical backroom of my stored memories. This looks like exuberance (action without solid justification) within a normally stodgy environment (almost irrational). The previous time I heard much about irrational exuberance was when the Fed chairman was worried about an unstably optimistic investment community just prior to the Internet Bubble bursting. Uh. Uh oh?
Mega-corps have been becoming more mega, even reaching valuations measured in trillions. We may even see the anointing of our first trillionaire.
Some scenarios: > That rising tide is finally lifting all those boats. (But is there enough wealth for everything to rise?) > Folks teetering at the top of that crest are realizing it may be time to trade ballistic stocks for smaller, overlooked companies that are yet to launch. (Sell high, then buy low is an old standard.) > I’m brilliant or lucky or finally about to be vindicated by having my stocks found. (Ha! Well, maybe a little, and hopefully more than enough. A person can dream.)
I don’t know which scenario is most likely and don’t expect to know. Current politics has been highly irrational, and trying to evaluate an irrational mob using rational criteria is irrational. When chaos reigns, don’t act as if you are in control. But don’t ignore it either.
Not ignoring it is why I’m writing this, even though there’s a dance in a little bit and I might want to get ready for it.
Chaos theory is called that because, even if there’s an underlying pattern, what we see can seem chaotic and unpredictable. The stock market has always been thus, and now maybe moreso.
This is happening as I prepare My Semi-Annual Portfolio Review. Usually, I can start preparing it weeks in advance because stocks move slowly as brokers hit the holidays. The early work I did this year will have to be redone. OK. That’s part of being a responsible investor.
The good news I’ve seen as I refresh my thoughts is that there is good news for GERN, LCTX, LUNR, MVIS, QBYS, and SLDP. I’ll chronicle it in the Review. Whether from company performance or irrational exuberance or whatever, my personal finance situation has improved dramatically. The enabling event was selling my house (which produced cash), which got me out of debt (as I traded debt payments for rent on land for my tiny house), which freed up capital (which was well-timed, evidently.)
Pardon me as I leave any narrative structure behind to capture something I alluded to last week, implicitly. Nine months ago, I had 20 months of reserves before drastic action might be required. I didn’t want to wait too long because there was enough turmoil in the world that the economy might shift enough that selling my house and paying my debts might become much more difficult. I am glad I did what I did, when I did, and how I did it. Being house-trapped before the Great Recession (the Second Great Depression) was traumatic. After selling my home, I had ~3.5 years of reserves, a great relief that is demonstrably healthy. The stock market’s actions this week led to an estimated >8 years of reserves. It might be more by now. That financial transition is requiring a non-trivial emotional transition. Over a decade of scarcity trained me into reactions that I am now unwinding, partly thanks to a mental health counselor. The rest of the task is up to me. It isn’t fashionable to say, but money changes mindsets. I know poor people who don’t want to hear about someone else’s good fortune. I know rich people who don’t want to acknowledge that poverty exists unless they can blame the poor. We are a dysfunctional society. Within a short time, I’ve been riding that roller coaster through America’s wealth classes. I haven’t reached the highest highs or the lowest lows, but I could see them from where I was. Now, as the ride progresses, I recognize the difficulty in finding a balance within this world we created. Stay tuned. I don’t know where it’s going, how we’ll get there, and what I’ll do along the way, but this is a time to be aware, responsive, responsible, and compassionate.
I was expecting a quiet week. Selling books and photos was in the online mode, i.e., hands-off because deliveries needed time too. It looked like a good week to catch up on a rare season of stock investing after years of hardly any activity. (Stock Shopping – 2024) Having cash from a house sale made the difference. There were spreadsheets to update, some light research as usual, and beginning the draft of my semi-annual portfolio review. Then, what the…?! The stock surge from the reconciling of the election uncertainties (Election Impact – 2024) surged again, like waves in a bathtub. This could get messy. Let’s get busy.
Skip the chamomile, and its soothing properties. I needed assam, black tea, straight, no honey. It should be hot, but I’d be so distracted that I knew it would cool by the time I was done. (Irony, got a new delivery of teas and herbs from Dandelion Botanical. It might be Christmas morning before I open the box. A gift to myself! Also, an excuse to mention my book about tea in modern America, Kettle Pot Cup, a fundraiser for tea pickers.)
Check my Twitter (won’t call it X, and now on Bluesky) feed (@tetrimbath) to track most of what I buy and sell, or the tail end of one of my recent posts. The definitive list is in the semi-annual portfolio review – and I’ll get back to that. Within the last two weeks, every day has seen a Buy or a Sell as I bolster some positions, eliminate others, and even take profits. (Gasp! Actual profits? QBTS has been a ride.)
One measure of my portfolio’s performance has been a ten-fold increase in the values of the transactions from before I sold my house. That heightens the adrenaline and shifts some perspectives. Fortunately, I’ve been through this before. Remember those lessons about balancing logic with emotion, objective math with subjective values. It can all feel like a game. It can all feel vital. Investing has a mix of those two vital points of view.
A quick check of my stocks (thanks to Google Finance for when I want a faster answer than the more official one from my brokerage, Schwab) shows that over the last week, most of my stocks have seen double-digit percentage moves. For reference, traditionally, a conservative expectation for stock performance is 7-10% per year. As I type this, two of my stocks (SLDP, QBTS) are up over 10% so far today. The rest are moving by several percent, including two that are heading the wrong way. Pesky biotechs. Opportunity? Looking back a bit longer, over the last six months, LUNR is up ~270% and QBTS is up ~ 520%. Today’s short-term moves aren’t as important as the long term. As I mentioned, I’ve been here a few times before. Being up >500% meant I was able to Sell 20% of my QBTS and recoup my original investment, leaving the remainder as pure profit that I can Hold through future risks and rewards until I confidently have more than enough.
Selling 20% of a position means I now have cash. Instead of mildly bolstering positions or adding new holdings, I can make bigger moves. Hello, GMGMF (graphene-based solid batteries). What to do? What to do?
To Do: 1) It is Christmas. Buy and give gifts. 2) I’ve lived in scarcity for over a decade. Buy gifts for me, which can be as simple as more tea, an out-of-production DVD player, and go on a food and pantry shopping spree to restock shelf-stable staples like herbs, spices, teas, wines, liquor, nuts, etc. 3) And not third on the list, simply typed third, give generously.
Giving I may have mentioned an encounter from earlier this year. In the Spring of 2024, I moved from the vicinity of one tourist town (Langley, where I had too much house debt) to another tourist town (Port Townsend, one ferry ride away, where I am Debt-Free – and view-free, at least at home). Both have wealthy residents. Even before CEOs were being shot, one fervently and worryingly asked me, “I’m doing very well, but I don’t know what to do about it?” They were honestly displaying guilt. That’s courage. By the end of our short conversation, I said it really comes down to giving it away. It can be shopping local as much as possible and splurging on local goods and services. It can be pure charity. It can be paying taxes. It can also be formal and informal donations and contributions to organizations and individuals. Legacy gifts in wills are good, but money sooner is better than later. One simple solution: If you buy a luxury, donate 10% of that amount to a charity. My solution for my current situation: I guessed at how much I spent on myself, doubled it, and spent an afternoon making several donations. My net worth is still less than ‘enough’, so my donations may not be significant, but I hope I’ve found a good balance between caring for my community and myself.
And back to the stocks. Pardon me as I pause to check on them. For readers, this will only take as long as it takes to read a sentence. For me, I might be gone for a while.
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OK. Pardon me again, as I notice that there are only two hours left in the trading week. There isn’t much left to the year, and much of it is holiday time. Trading gets weirder, then. I’ll step away from typing as I consider whether there is a need, or even a strong want, to Buy or Sell something.
I will, however, end with a reminder. I titled my book Dream. Invest. Live. for a purpose. Many investment and finance books are money, money, money. There’s no life in that. There are no dreams in that. I dream of a life that is many things including being comfortable and compassionate. Investing is merely the step between that dream and living it. Dream it. Invest for it. Live it. It has been too many years when I’ve had to scramble to survive. Now, I feel like I can get back to living. Good luck with your dreams and life, too.
To Do: Should I sell off WNDW because it hasn’t already recovered from its stumble? I have two biotechs, two solid battery companies, and one electronics component manufacturer, one quantum computer company, and one lunar aerospace firm? Should I diversify, add within categories, add a category, – that series of questions can be a book, not just a blog – but I’ll find an answer for myself.
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Result: A) Sold WNDW and XOS this week. I like the technologies (transparent solar cells for windows, electric delivery vehicles), but the companies do not give me confidence. Besides, except for a few tax rules, stocks can usually be bought back again. I checked my intuition; removing them from my portfolio did not generate a feeling of missing out or wanting more. Set them aside for a while. B) The rest can wait. I do not ‘need’ to act in haste, so, don’t.
BTW Unless there’s significant news, I may not post during the week of Christmas, but I will be working on My Semi-Annual Portfolio Review. This one may be more interesting than most. Stay tuned.
Trimbathcreative's Blog (Tom Trimbath) 