Affording The Holidays

Posted on December 12, 2025 by Tom Trimbath

Medieval peasants knew about affording the holidays. I see modern ads about affording the holidays by credit card companies. The peasants were smarter. What they did, we can do, no plastic required.

Go ahead and romanticize medieval times. They were tough, at least measured against modern healthcare and technology. But fun has not been a modern invention. Peasants had fun. Sure, they had dramas and traumas, but they didn’t have to go into debt to produce a feast, take time off, get together with friends and family, and be thankful for what they had.

Affording the holidays is a modern invention. Our consumer economy doesn’t demand it, but the companies greatly encourage it. I even sell during the holidays, but I don’t want anyone to buy my books or photos by using credit they can’t afford. Luxuries do make nice gifts, but luxuries are not necessities in many ways.

Pardon the repetition, but I’ll tell you about one of my most memorable gifts: a Nerf ball.

I can’t recall many of my gifts, and I can’t recall who gave and who got the Nerf ball, but it was something between my Dad and me. I wasn’t a kid. I was 25. In retrospect, I was still maturing, but I was also becoming aware that expensive did not equate to appreciated. I was visiting home in Pittsburgh from my new home outside Seattle. It was only Mom, Dad, and me. We sat in the living room, beside the tree covered in white twinkle lights. (My Dad preferred old, warm, colored lights, but without me there, he lost that battle.) One of us opened a very light box, pulled out a Nerf ball, and laughed. My Mom, who appreciated but couldn’t afford the very nice things, was taken aback and wondered why we’d gift a Nerf ball. My Dad and I looked at each other, and bounced the ball off each other’s foreheads. We threw it back and forth – and laughed. My Mom was confused. My Dad and I had fun. I remember that gift from over forty years ago.

There are a few other memorable gifts from the recent decades: a particular mug that I relied on at work because it held so much, ski boots that almost fit but I used for years, – and I pause as nothing else comes to mind. I’m sure I enjoyed gifts every year. I know I enjoyed the time I spent with people. I know I enjoyed a good, basic feast. I know I enjoyed time to relax. I know that there has been almost no correlation between the price of the gift and the enjoyment I received.

Peasants couldn’t afford luxurious gifts, unless they made them. Feasts couldn’t be expensive, but they had a chance at producing quantity, and maybe roasting that goose or making that sweet dessert. They could make music and dance, tell stories and laugh, and care for each other. And undoubtedly, there were arguments and disagreements and slighted emotions because the romanticized notion wasn’t real. But they didn’t have to wonder how they were going to afford the holidays.

Medieval peasants weren’t coerced by ads to buy things they couldn’t afford. They didn’t have Black Friday and Cyber Monday. No batteries were required. There were no returns, though a few days later, there may be exchanges. They weren’t told that the economy required them to spend for the sake of the economy.

Medieval peasants had lives that were tough enough that few of us could survive them as well as they did. But, they knew what to do with holidays and holy days. Enjoy them. Celebrate them. No credit cards required. No monthly payments. No piles of wrapping paper and cardboard boxes. And then, back to work. And then, enjoy the next celebration.

This year will probably be a quiet one for me. Most of my friends are my age, and most are trying to get rid of things, not get more things. Many are so minimalist that I look like a massive consumer, and I expect to not give or get much, which is fine. There are dances on the calendar. Soon, I’ll stock my kitchen with food for the feast. Some drinking may be involved, but no drinking and driving means managing which dances to attend.

I am fortunate enough to be able to buy a few things, mostly consumables. I intend to buy myself a few things that I’ll appreciate and that I wouldn’t want anyone else to buy for me (a standing desk?, a new radio for the Jeep?, a new fridge?). I will surprise me because I don’t know what I’ll buy, and I don’t know how my stocks will perform.

I intend to give out hugs, wrap my arms around friends instead of paper around packages, and sit and sip and appreciate how good my life is. I like that. Besides, the cleanup is much easier, except for the feasts, but that’s good too. I can afford that.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

Gifts Change

Posted on December 3, 2025 by Tom Trimbath

December. December is so different, now. Before I was a teenager, it was about Normal Rockwell moments, gifts, Santa, food, and how about some more gifts. As a teenager, it probably should’ve been about hormones and recklessness, but I remember family, gifts, and enjoying wrapping gifts as much as I did opening them. My twenties, on my own, living frugally and away from ‘home’, so the celebrations were more sedate. Got married, and things shifted to include another’s traditions. After the divorce, I was old enough to reassess what I wanted and needed. Then frugality by necessity hit, gifts were baked, and I was glad to find roadside scrap trees. Now, I can afford a tree, but it and me won’t fit in my tiny house at the same time. What am I left with? What do I want? Things do change.

Congratulations on making it through an overly-long front paragraph, but it proved a point to me, at least. Christmas changed for me as I have changed. Many traditions were passed along, fed to me by media, and shared with friends and family. For much of the time, the main effort was consumerism, ideally reflecting relationships and connections, but frequently, inevitably, temporary. As the people I know age, a core set of traditions remains, and buying and selling have become less important than listening and sharing.

A lot has changed in the world, too. Toys have gone from Red Flyer wagons (though I never saw that specific brand – I think) to mega-brands pushed by massive marketing campaigns. My favorite toy was a Nerf ball when I was in my twenties because it was simple, frivolous, and fun. Movies that were relatively new then are classics now, and can be streamed. Foods have been analyzed to such an extent that the brand name is less important than the labels like GF for gluten-free, or organic, or free-trade. Each such gift gets scrutinized rather than simply shoved in the mouth. We’re more aware of the rest of the world, and the corporations are more aware of each of us.

I’m old enough that there’s little extra I want, and what I want can be so specific that I doubt anyone could guess what it might be. Age, really experience and introspection, has left me with an understanding of what I want, what I need, and what I consider extraneous. Hmm. As I write this, I realize that awareness is a gift I’ve been giving myself for years.

For many people my age, consumables make more sense. Shopping local means more (for local folks). Thrift stores can get so many unfashionable and archaic offerings that they turn away items no one needs or wants. As a kid, I’d lie down on the carpet in front of the family’s six-foot-long stereo as I listened to the radio or music. Now, they represent phenomenal spent resources that are deteriorating in some landfill, piled in with other discarded gear. Meanwhile, food and drink are something everyone uses every day.

A core gift that was never wrapped and not considered a gift was time. Time with each other. Unfettered time alone. Time to think, feel, maybe feed and drink, and to inevitably nap. I can’t remember most of the gifts, but I know there were naps in there, and a desire to spend more time with friends and family.
And friends and family aren’t there always. Sorry for bursting a romantic bubble, but friends and family are people. People age. As a kid, the fact that grandma might not be there was, at best, abstract. At my age, everyone I know is a limited-time opportunity, and therefore, precious. Pardon me as I ponder that while I pause typing.

…

Yep.

I’ve already started sending out cards. I’d like to think that I’ll do that throughout the year. Maybe. Maybe.

I won’t be shopping much, mostly because folks my age have had a lifetime to buy what they want. Some will appreciate some consumables, though.

I will maintain my traditions that fit with my lifestyle. Life in a tiny house means no tree; sigh. But the baking is about to begin, and I’m already planning Christmas dinner. I miss not being able to have a party.

I miss being able to share the meal with friends. There just isn’t enough room. Some decorations will go up, but the majority of them will stay in storage for yet another year. I’ll watch my traditional movies (at least White Christmas on the day and Love Actually for New Year’s).

There will be other things I do that don’t come to mind as I type because I am more likely to let things happen as they will. Sticking to a rigid arrangement misses the opportunity for pleasant reminders and surprises.

The two biggest parts of the season will probably be dancing with friends, and time for myself. Many other things will be appreciated during the holidays, but time and people are most likely to be the most memorable and enjoyed.

Spend time with family, friends, and most important, spend time with your self. Nothing is more precious than time with people, and you are people, too.

Sigh. I guess I’ll add a link to my books on Amazon. Yes. I see the irony. Besides, it gives me an opportunity to realize that, while I’m not giving many gifts, others might want to pass my words along. Thanks for reading.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Shop Local Or Not

Posted on November 29, 2025 by Tom Trimbath

How do I spell that sound I make when I settle into a comfy chair days after a feast? Erf? Ugh? Whew? Whew will have to do, but the sound is more like a balloon slightly deflating, but not a whoppie cushion, thankfully. I’m glad I recently bought a new pair of sweatpants. I’m also glad I’m not driving to a mall, hunting for parking, jostling with crowds, and trying to find which brand to buy from. I’m shopping local, of course. I’m also mostly not shopping. And yes, sometimes shopping local isn’t an option. Reality, eh?

Elastic. What a wonder. Thanksgiving dinner was duck, wild rice, brussels sprouts, butternut squash pudding, and Finnriver cider. Pardon me as I pay attention to my overworked digestive system. I’m past burping, and I won’t describe what’s happening now. Jeans aren’t forgiving. Carhartt bibs are sturdy and don’t bind at the waist, but they’re meant for standing while working, not sitting in a chair while typing. Sweats exist for a reason, frequently not involving sweating. Gotta work on that later. 

Buying sweats is not shopping local, alas. But most of dinner was grown near my house. Nice. Friends benefited. Local businesses benefited, which also benefited locals I have yet to meet. Money stayed in the area, and if they shop local, then the money benefits more of us. Inevitably, some of that money will leak out into the larger economy. Taxes. Yep. But also, things that aren’t made in local communities. Globalization increased efficiencies, but not necessarily resilience. Definitely not community.

Last night’s dance and this evening’s dance will help me work off some of the accumulated calories. The place was packed last night. At the start, kids outnumbered adults. Finnriver Cidery hosts live bands and doesn’t complain when we decide to dance. The adults have fun (and some embarrassment) showing what they’ve learned. The kids didn’t need to be taught. They moved because it was fun to move. Finnriver also sells cider. 

That’s actually why they are there, as a cidery. I thought cider was cider. I guess it is, like wine is wine, but wine also gets much pickier than white versus red. And there are lots of types of apples, and probably many ways to harvest and process them. Sadly, my doctor effectively wags a finger at me about such beverages. 

(One consequence of small town versus big city life is that my doctor visits the cidery too, so I decide not to drink so I don’t have to hide it. Besides, my doctor probably has good health-like reasons for me avoiding such a fine beverage. I’ll still dance there, though. Besides, they have nice teas.)

I can’t drink it, but I can buy it and ship it. And they’re not the only option. Many farms ship food, as long as it keeps well. Locals also make stuff, including stuff that is elevated above stuff and is called art. Good luck finding the borders between stuff, craft, and art. It is local, but it is also more personal. I’m more likely to know the person, but whoever receives my gift also gets a story that is far more personal than yet another shrink-wrapped, branded trinket shipped from an overseas factory. There’s more to talk about when they unwrap it. That’s a bonus.

I am also shopping less. Yesterday was Black Friday, but I went to Hurricane Ridge in Olympic National Park to get some nature photos. (Hey, the road was open – thought icy – and the snow on the ridges was fresh and pretty.) Today, I’m sitting here, typing this, maybe going for a bike ride before going dancing again. I have the time because I have less to buy. 

We are all aging, but most folks I know have aged enough and shopped enough and been given enough stuff that they don’t need or want anything more. The Baby Boom houses that bulged with families also bulged with furniture and things that the next generation doesn’t want, and the current residents no longer need. More has been replaced with less, which has been replaced with “help me get rid of some of this stuff. I don’t want to have to move it because I’m downsizing.” 

Consumables are more popular. Beverages? Sure. Candles? OK. Smoked salmon, cured meats, spices, teas, cheeses, all things that can be used and used up. And, they are things that can be shared. 
Sharing gifts is more than exchanging gifts. Sharing a gift is an excuse to socialize. It is possible to visit, have fun, and to at least temporarily put aside politics. 

It is trite, but visiting someone has become less common, and therefore more precious. Treating each other with friendship shouldn’t seem rare, but to me, that’s one of the best gifts I’ve received.

Another gift to buy is too easy to overlook. Charity and philanthropy are too tightly associated with tax credits and formality. Definitely give, if you can. I find it more fun to give locally, really locally like person-to-person. It is like shopping local, but can reach further. Look around. Listen. You’ll probably hear or see people who have legitimate needs. They may appreciate it more than you can know.

One twist on giving is to give to yourself. Sure, send that thousand-dollar donation to a charity; but how about taking your life up a notch by buying local things for yourself? Bacon costs ~$9 per pound? Yep. But a local ranch produces an excellent local bacon at $24 a pound. That’s pricy, but I get bacon, they get a sale, the money stays in the area, and the only paperwork is the receipt. Need a bowl? Find a local potter. Need a card? Visit your local printer. Get the idea, or do I need to belabor the point? It is easy. Get past any guilt and treat yourself. You may miss out on a tax benefit, but then they’re less likely to need the benefits from the government. And then if they shop local, and if they shop local, and if…

I don’t expect to recognize you on the dance floor. I’ll be paying attention to my dance partner, but I’ll also be watching for everyone else. I don’t get into mall parking lot traffic jams, but crowded dance floors are far more chaotic, and fun. I’ll just try to keep the bumped elbows and stubbed toes to a minimum.
Let’s see, tonight’s event at Finnriver is Holy Carp (Rock / Pop / Jazz / Americana – whatever it is, I’ll dance to it). Music starts at 5PM. I think $5 is typical, but I tend to give a bit more. (5PM? Hey, it gets dark early here. Why wait? There might even be time for dining and socializing after.)

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

20 Months Of Cash

Posted on November 21, 2025 by Tom Trimbath

Twenty months of cash. Twenty months of liquid assets: cash, stocks, whatever I’ve hidden in my socks (inside family reference.) About two years ago, I estimated that I had 20 months of cash reserves. If nothing significantly improved my finances, in 20 months I’d be required to sell my house. Back then, that meant potentially selling into an economy responding to a new administration. I’d rather sell before such a crowd of sellers drove down house prices. I decided to sell my house. It sold in May 2024. I am glad. I also was wrong; I only had 8 months of reserves left when the deal sold. (spreadsheet error) I’m doing much better now. I do miss the view.

But what if I never sold? Did I have to sell? In retrospect, it still looks like it was a good idea. Some jobs did arise, but the south Whidbey economy was being increasingly driven by wealth. Even if I had the money, I couldn’t find contractors for home repairs because the contractors were busy enough with higher-wealth clients. I had a few stocks, but they haven’t moved much. My house’s market value hasn’t shifted either. I did lose the only house I’ve considered a home since I graduated high school, and I do miss the view. Oh well.

But what about the move? How has that been?

I miss the view, and I miss being able to socialize. That’s the consequence of living in a tiny house in a mobile home park (MyTinyExperiment.com). But I now have ~100 months of reserves, no mortgage, and a lot less worry. The equity from my house that I sold paid off my official debts, removed those monthly debt payments, removed those strings to some untrustworthy financial institutions, and cleared my mind from a lot of worry. I still haven’t found a job, and don’t feel that I have to get one. I’m learning to relax, and realizing how insidious anxiety had crept into my life by being poor. Much of that realization has come from being able to hire a therapist, and explore much of that life in my book, Muddling By. 

So, how do I have ~100 months of reserves? Some of it is from the leftovers from the house sale. As I mentioned, some of that money went to paying off debt. The rest went into investments, particularly stocks. (Stay tuned for my semi-annual portfolio review at the end of the year.) Join the unresolvable debate as to whether the doubling of my holdings was intelligence, wisdom, luck, destiny, or is unknowable. A few of my new stocks are up hundreds of percent in the most recent twelve months, and more than that since I bought the original shares about 20 months ago. Whew.

Whew, and I am not assuming nothing is going to change. Regular readers know that one of the stocks (QBTS) was up over 4,000%. Today, it is ‘only’ up >900%. I’ve been investing long enough to have several stories on either side, stocks going up thousands of percent, and stocks falling 100%. And yes, I have a high (though not infinite) risk tolerance. I suspect few folks can weather such a ride. Stocks are weird. The world is weird. The two together are quite confused. And, I think I’ve learned the skills to ride through such turbulence. I hope.

I’m glad I did what I did when I sold a bit of QBTS. (See previous posts.) I sold a quarter of my position as the stock got close to $40. I sold at ~$37. The stock rose to ~$46. FOMO. Then, the stock fell to under $20. Whew. I missed the high, but the shares I sold produced (and I didn’t make this connection until I started typing this paragraph) ~20 months of living expenses. Some of that paid off some personal debts. Some went to charity. The majority is being held back to pay taxes, and as cash in case something interrupts Social Security payments. (Imagine that.) I’m not complaining. Some of my shares were purchased at $0.75.

I don’t expect all of my investments to have such a rise.

I also don’t expect all of my investments to have a catastrophic fall.

This isn’t about bragging. It is about being an example of my version of personal finance. Watch it, but without worrying about it (as much as some would.) Act, but not frenetically. Don’t hang onto an old life, an old set of assumptions and habits, out of habit. Don’t wait too long, either. 

I sit, now, at a bit of a plateau. I’m out of debt, comfortable with my cash and lifestyle. I am also hundreds of thousands of dollars away from moving to a house I like in a place I like with many other things I like. I’m also relieved that, after checking local real estate listings, I don’t need millions. A few millions would be handy (#understatement), but a lot of lottery winnings would simply be better distributed to charities and entrepreneurs. 

All such projections are based on assumptions. Math is objective, but the world is chaotic and random, and people and society are unpredictable. 

Oh yeah, and AI is going to change things dramatically, and much sooner than most people suspect. I suspect the majority of people think AI is something that will affect someone else. Not this time. And, regular readers probably recognize a rarity from me, a strong declarative statement. 

Whatever ride we’ve been on may seem calm in comparison to what is coming.

Ah, another reason to celebrate this milestone, and to be prepared for what comes next. At least I’m further from worry (though not removed from it), have cash in the bank (and let’s assume the bank and the money doesn’t disappear), and have hopes and plans for the future (because while many are preparing for a dystopia, I suspect it is also healthy to plan for a positive future – even if I can’t imagine what it might be.)

I do miss that view. Oh well, there are other views to enjoy.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Both Sides

Posted on November 14, 2025 by Tom Trimbath

Here’s a rarity, telling both sides of a story. Recently, I’ve posted about the successes of a couple of my stocks, QBTS & LUNR. Now, go check the news and probably find scores of articles on a variety of topics. Writing advice I’ve received is to portray a clear, definitive, concise narrative. Regular readers know I am not concise. I try to be clear. As for definitive, most publications stick to one perspective and emphasize it. Only tell the good or the bad, but don’t confuse people with both. Prepare to be confused.

However, I don’t expect any of my readers to be confused. Regular readers have read posts from the ups (DNDN & AMSC), and the downs (DNDN & AMSC), as well as the long-lingering languishing (MVIS).

Life is real. There are ups and downs, and trying to keep my eyes closed for half of it would mean missing a lot.

This week was a week of corrections. QBTS is down about 50% from its spiky high. LUNR is down more than 50% from its high in January; having your rocket lander fall over will do that. Some say sell. I did. I sold a bit of QBTS on its rise. I missed the peak, but I didn’t expect to hit it. I sold a bit earlier. Then, I covered my initial investment. The recent sale realized a profit that covers other investments. I am left with 60% of my initial holdings, and am glad. Sure, the stock is down, but such is the nature of startups.
Sure, LUNR has had two landers land, then tip over. But both companies are not managing by the headlines. Aside from those news items, the companies are progressing their technologies, their products, and their partnerships.

There are no guarantees. There’s the risk. Hopefully, there’s a reward. Hopefully, there are many rewards: advancing quantum computing and space commercialization are nice profits, too.

This does not mean I’m going to go out and celebrate the fallbacks in their stock prices.

Investing in small, startup companies means great volatility. They have relatively few investors. Many of the investors are individuals. Every stock purchase and sale can swing the stock price more significantly than a sale of MSFT. MSFT needs hundreds of millions or billions of dollars in trades to move the price. There are investors who can do that, but they exist in a hyper-competitive realm of financial institutions and oligarchs. I don’t want to have to dance with those elephants. But that also means that my stocks, when found and favored or abandoned, can swing more abruptly.

From what I’ve witnessed, few investors have that level of risk tolerance.

I have that level of risk tolerance, and have felt its consequences.

Within this blog (and in my newest book, Muddling By), I’ve described my Triple Whammy where a moderately diversified portfolio was swung upwards by positive news (DNDN & AMSC), impressive speculation (MVIS), and subsequent shatterings of those dreams. Criminals were responsible for the first two failings. Bad luck affected the third. Having those happen as the Great Recession (the Second Great Depression) was happening, which meant I couldn’t sell my house or get a regular job.

And I’ve continued to chronicle the progress here, in this blog – because the story doesn’t end because I wrote a book, or someone got elected, or a new technology was invented, or whatever.

The recent fallbacks were episodes in an ongoing story. Only acknowledging the highs means ignoring parts of living. Stocks go up and down. I acknowledge both. I may act because of it, but I’m more likely to simply watch it.

One reality of my investing is persistence. ‘Keep at it’ seems a silly phrase for something that is simply doing nothing more than watching, but it also means watching the ups and the downs, and watching them well enough to know when something fundamental has changed. Things have changed at the companies I am invested in, mostly. The biotechs (GERN & LCTX) are progressing through clinical trials and some commercialization. The battery companies (SLDP & GMGMF) are progressing their relative technologies. QBTS is being recognized as more than a quantum computing lab bench. LUNR is surprising some by acquiring companies, almost as if they plan to live up to their seriousness about commercializing space. MVIS, well, MVIS, … If MVIS ever succeeds, maybe I’ll write a book about it. If it doesn’t succeed, decades of investor anxieties will join those from thousands of other failed ventures.

So, yes. There was some retreat in some of my investments, but for me, and for this post, it is important to acknowledge both sides, the ups and the downs, and not to rely on headlines and sound bites that are only one or the other. Life’s more complicated than that. Good.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

Luck And A Bit Of SLDP and LUNR – November 2025

Posted on November 5, 2025 by Tom Trimbath

As I mentioned recently, once upon a time, I’d post my stock trades on the Motley Fool. I posted that when I bought a bit more LUNR. I had some cash left from a sale of some of my QBTS stock, so I bought some more of another of my holdings, SLDP. I thought about waiting before doing anything else, but SLDP went up over 50% today, so I bought a bit more LUNR, again. And that’s probably enough for now. Probably. Maybe.


OK. That’s chronicled. Sold some QBTS, so I bought some SLDP and some LUNR. That’s a concise summary that hides a lot of details. A writer of biographies could summarize each dead person’s history as, ‘they were born, they lived, and they died.’ That hides a lot of details.

Here are some details.

QBTS is building quantum computers. I considered it a risky investment that may take years to become profitable, but if they succeeded, the profits could be impressive. The product could also be as positive and disruptive as something like microchips or the transistor. I was wrong. This blog contains descriptions of some of that success. Currently, QBTS is up more than 2,700% in the most recent twelve months. I sold a bit to cover my initial investment. Then I sold a bit to realize a profit. The rest is unrealized profit, aka owning the other shares for a while longer, possibly much longer.

LUNR is developing a space-based business that is concentrating on lunar missions. I’ll copy and paste a bit of the previous paragraph. “I considered it a risky investment that may take years to become profitable, but if they succeeded, the profits could be impressive. The product could also be as positive and disruptive…”, but instead of chips, I considered LUNR to be more akin to SpaceX. LUNR would be smaller because it mostly works on lunar products and services, while Space X is space in general. It is only up >33% in the previous twelve months, but the historical average is more like 7% to 10%, so, good. And, their failures (like landers falling over) distract people from their successes (being paid for 85% mission success.) Good. Don’t fall over so much. And then they announced a major purchase of a satellite manufacturer, which broadens their business. Good. Glad I bought a bit more.

SLDP builds solid-state batteries. Skipping the technical jargon, Solid-state batteries can be the next generation of batteries past Lithium-ion batteries, which were preceded by alkaline batteries, which were preceded by batteries that couldn’t hold a charge for very long. Next-generation tech appeals to me, especially when it can charge more quickly, hold more power, use materials that are easier to find and mine, and are safer. For someone like me, who remembers pre-alkaline batteries, the potential looks enormous. And, as I mentioned above, “I considered it a risky investment that may take years to become profitable, but if they succeeded, the profits could be impressive. The product could also be as positive and disruptive…” Like. Oh, and SLDP has been chosen by Samsung and BMW to develop a prototype car. The stock is up ~60% in the most recent five trading days, and is up more than 600% since this time last year. Timing? Yes. Luck? Also yes.

Note a common thread. “I considered it a risky investment that may take years to become profitable, but if they succeeded, the profits could be impressive. The product could also be as positive and disruptive…” That is not a guarantee. I have three stocks that fit that description but not those results – so far. I’ve held shares of MVIS, GERN, and now LCTX since circa 2000. MVIS, down more than 96%. GERN, down more than 84%. LCTX, down more than 45%. I’ve lost more than that because those are estimates from historical data on Google, not the exact prices I purchased them at. 

Timing. Yes. Luck? Also yes.

I buy for the long term because, mathematically in my opinion, the stock market is chaotic. It can’t be accurately predicted. Success is anticipated and discussed, and frequently delayed. Failure is rarely sudden and final, and usually relegated to a long list of prudent business considerations. Few of my stocks have lost 100%, though the precise point is moot when the loss is over 90%. Few of my stocks have gained over 100%, though some rise thousands of percent. The gains have countered the losses, though the balancing act had years of bad bounces. (See My Triple Whammy.)

Luck.

Sometimes when I’ve discussed bad luck, I’ve been judged as victimizing my story.

Sometimes when I’ve discussed good luck, I’ve been branded as not giving myself enough credit.

I’m me. I’m reasonably intelligent. I’m also reasonably self-aware. I will give myself credit for my skills and acknowledge my faults, but I will also note that luck, good and bad, has had an influence that was out of my control. This isn’t a statement of victimization or giving myself credit as much as acknowledging that luck has an influence, too. 

I hope I made that point implicitly and explicitly in my book, Muddling By. I’ve been middle-class, a millionaire, and basically muddling by. In retrospect, it is easy to say I should’ve done this or that, but that’s life. In a capitalistic society, it is easy to equate net worth with personal value. Spout a number and an easy categorization shortens conversational introductions. I’ve been in each category, and in retrospect it has been interesting to see me being categorized – and then to realize it is happening to all of us.
Luck impacts wealth, positive and negative, and even though we say we can make luck, random chance happens too.

Hmm. Didn’t expect this post to get here, but here it is. I guess that’s a bit of luck.

Pardon me as I pause my typing to consider that.

(pause)

(breathe)

OK.

These times are dynamic. I’ll skip the politics, except to say that I vote and to thank everyone who votes. If you don’t vote, well, you probably aren’t reading blog posts about personal finance and community. Personal finance is a necessity in this society. Some use it to accumulate wealth. I use it to finance a personal life, and to help others as I can. I research companies more than research stocks, because core business products and services are the basis of a company’s worth. But they, like me, live within a world of plans and luck. Sometimes great ideas fail, regardless of their inherent value. Some ideas appear great because, by luck, they made lots of money. I am sure there is no perfect procedure for making profit, both for companies and people, but we do our best; and I do think doing my best is recognizing that luck plays a role. Sometimes, that luck is positive, and can appear random, and can appear planned. I’ll let the philosophers debate the possibilities. In the meantime, I’ll continue investing, watching the news, researching, voting, – and buying lottery tickets. Hey, I could really lucky in a really good way.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

A Good Week – October 2025

Posted on October 31, 2025 by Tom Trimbath

Good weeks can happen too. There were at least two pieces of good book news, three pieces of stock news, and a compliment or a few. Which to write about? We get enough weird news from the world lately. I’ll share each of these because good news deserves to be mentioned too.

Muddling By

A friend called to read a quote back to me. They’re reading my latest book, Muddling By, and wanted to thank me (or congratulate me?) for writing the following line.

“Visitors to the simple life have a different experience than those who live there involuntarily.”

We live in tourist towns. Tourist towns can be social centers wrapped with rural lands. People can be a mix of local farm folk, retirees, and people temporarily escaping their corporate and urban lives. Some visit the simple life. Some choose to live there. Some do not have a choice. They may all stay in a tiny house on a small acreage, but one is there for the weekend, one is there to relax and recover, and one is there because where else would they go?

And yet, we have to find one set of laws, regulations, and norms that can fit all. That isn’t easy.

And, thanks for the compliment about the quote. There are more like it in the book. (For sale online, but maybe your library can carry a copy.)

Podcast

Serendipity and synchronicity happen. I attended an HSN (Housing Solutions Network?) meeting this week about affordable housing in Jefferson County. I almost – almost – kept my mouth shut. Really, I have tried to scale back from my active life of volunteering and such, partly from doctors’ (note the plural) orders/suggestions, but the unofficial coordinator asked if anyone who hadn’t talked wanted to add an observation. OK. I spoke up.

I spoke up to reinforce the experiences mentioned by a minority at the event. The event was doing good work. The event was like others I’ve seen, people working hard at trying to navigate a way through funding, regulatory, and economic issues to make more housing available. Frequently, the discussion is about how to build more housing. Good. But I heard and emphasized a comment that pointed out the severity of the issue that is easy to overlook.

Some people can’t buy anything. Some people have jobs that don’t produce the income and documentation that lenders and landlords require. They can be the most exposed, and the least represented. Let’s not forget about the homeless, and don’t assume that they want to own or even need a traditional house.
Living in a camping trailer may be a step up, especially to someone living in the forest, yet they are overlooked. They probably have a housing solution in mind, yet they are not permitted, as in officially not granted a permit, to live.

I’ll skip some of the details for privacy reasons, but I realized that we may be able to give them a voice through a podcast. By attending without expecting to participate, serendipity and synchronicity may have enabled some of us to produce and provide such a voice. Stay tuned.

Back To Books
It is easy to remember to mention my latest book (Muddling By), but when I checked its status on Amazon, I noticed that a book I wrote over twenty years ago had a sale. Twelve Months at Merritt Lake was found by a customer. Cool. Some topics are timeless, but given enough time, they can be overlooked, too.



Twelve Months at Merritt Lake was the third in my trilogy of Twelve Month books in the Washington Cascades. Barclay Lake is on the wet side, basically in a temperate rain forest. Lake Valhalla is at the crest. Merritt Lake is in drier terrain where forest fires are more common. So are errant livestock. So are guns and hunters. So is wilderness area that overwhelms humanity in its scale.
Nature’s presence is the core of the book, and is why reading it twenty years later is still appropriate. Read on, and thanks.

Compliments
We can never share every compliment that we think of. We’re busy enough. Taking the time to thank everyone for everything would take all of our time. We’d all be more thankful, but we still need to do the laundry and pay the bills. Besides, a conversation of compliments can be dull, as if we need some simple small talk to smooth out each day’s bumps. And yet, this week has delivered more compliments than usual. I’ve been able to share some, too. I’ll pass along this one that was delivered to me via social media.
“Reading your words is like settling in for a cup of tea while sharing a window seat with a friend.”
See? Social media is good for something. Thanks.

Stocks
Amidst the rest of the week, three of my stocks delivered unexpected and good news.

SLDP makes solid batteries, basically. Most cars use lithium-ion batteries that use a fluid. They also use Lithium. So, getting the materials is troublesome. Fluids leak, and in particular, result in a battery that can catch fire. Lithium-ion batteries got us this far, but there is a lot of work going on for the next generation of batteries. SLDP announced that they are working with partners to make a prototype with BMW. That’s a major step past a lab bench, and good news.

LUNR is known for making lunar landers that land and then fall over. People laugh. People tend to ignore that, at least according to some objective criteria, LUNR has hit 85% of their work items. Add to those items the fact that LUNR will now be working on developing nuclear power sources for lunar orbit. That’s business.

QBTS (what’s its 1-year ROI? Oh. Ah. >3,300%) may be included in a US government plan that will involve the US owning a bit of the stock. I won’t say much more because politics is weird lately, but whether the company wants it or not, the stock responded positively. I don’t buy stock based on politics, but I also try to recognize political realities.


Was there more good news? Certainly. But, as I mentioned above, thanking everyone for everything would take longer than I want to type. Besides, there’s a dance to get ready for, and I just got my first hot-towel razor shave and trim. I might look respectable. I wonder if anyone will notice.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Bought A Bit Of LUNR Again – October 2025

Posted on October 27, 2025 by Tom Trimbath

Once upon a time, I’d post my stock trades on the Motley Fool. This forum, my blog, seems to be a more public and more trafficked place for such things lately. So, here’s a quick note. I bought some more LUNR. Let’s see if I ramble into a longer article.


Recently, I sold some of my QBTS. (QBTS At 40 So Soon) That was partly to realize some profits. It was also because I think the market is at least temporarily into Irrational Exuberance Again. Done.

Done, but not. The realized sale can also be called cash. A big checking account is very welcome after years of worry. A cash buffer is a good thing. But excess cash doesn’t grow, doesn’t do good work, and continually reminds me to do something with it. The taxes are covered. Good. I know about how much I want to reserve for living expenses and that cash cushion. I’ve already paid some personal debts. My kitchen may get an upgraded appliance or two. That leaves me with more than enough to reinvest. Any compounding in my portfolio is the result of sales being reinvested. I bought some more LUNR.

LUNR, which I consider to be poorly named as Intuitive Machines, is a company with a space-based business model. Cool. And risky. Twice they’ve landed craft on the Moon. Twice the craft have tipped over. Oops.

As an ex-aerospace engineer, I can understand why. Space is tricky. I’ll skip the details because YouTubers like Scott Manley explained LUNR’s situation better.

As an investor, I see a company that is overlooked because its main graphics are of fallen lunar landers – despite succeeding at many of their other lunar infrastructure projects. Tippy landers make the news, but successfully meeting 85% of their objectives – and getting paid for it – means there may be overlooked value. And, hopefully, third time is a charm and an entry into a more profitable and successful era. That’s why I buy companies, because they might do something good and make money doing it.

Eventually, I’ll return to researching other possibilities. Maybe more LUNR. But there are thousands of public companies to consider. I listen to my intuition and emotions, as well as considering logical and objective criteria. My thoughts kept returning to buying a bit more, so I did. I didn’t buy as much as I wanted, but at least I bought more. After I buy a range or a fridge or both or whatever, I’ll consider what else to consider.

In the meantime, it is time for me, the author of Muddling By, A Rollercoaster Ride Through America’s Wealth Classes, to do some authory stuff like telling people about the book, producing and publishing the ebook, submitting it to the Library of Congress, while also working on Twelve Months on Hurricane Ridge, and the third book in my sci-fi trilogy (the Exodus/Genesis series, Firewatcher and Fire Race). Oh yeah, and maybe take some time off and celebrate the season.

Five hundred words? Yeah, that’s enough typing for a Monday morning. Next up, trying to move my range so I can see what will be required to switch from propane to induction/convection. That story will get told on my tiny house blog, MyTinyExperiment.net.
(Oh, and if you’re curious about my writing, there’s a blog for that, too. (https://tomthewriter.net/)
Hmm. Maybe a nap, first.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Irrational Exuberance Again

Posted on October 24, 2025 by Tom Trimbath

Irrational exuberance again? The stock market is up again? But it sounds and looks like the world is in turmoil. Isn’t it? Not-exactly-a-news-flash = the market is not the world, and a crowd of supposedly intelligent investors can act like a mob of wannabes. We humans are so silly. Or, maybe this time is different.

Was it really back in 1996, almost thirty years ago, when the Fed chairman, Alan Greenspan, warned about a market that was possibly irrationally exuberant? Note that ‘possibly’ because the comment was made in public and Fed chairmen are rarely emphatic. They use wiggle words to allow a way out of conversational traps.

Google Finance

He was right. The dotcom bubble burst. The markets tumbled. People lost money. 

And, the general economy recovered. Many dotcoms became today’s monopolies. The markets rose, again. People made money.

And then there was the Great Recession (the Second Great Depression in my opinion). And then there was the … a continuing string of booms and busts. 

The markets are booming again. In the most recent five years, the NASDAQ index has doubled. That’s roughly a 15% increase every year, which is about double the historical average. Look at the data in more detail and see a much more turbulent ride. That’s normal. Wars, elections, crises create swings in the markets. 

Google Finance

Currently, the AI possibilities are creating a lot of enthusiasm and worry. If AI is effective, economies, businesses, and most lives will change. If so, now is the time to reposition portfolios (and careers) to take best advantage of the situation.

The problem now is like the problem then. The enthusiasts knew, or at least strongly guessed, that great things were coming. When the bubble burst, they might have been hurt. Many guesses at investments faded even as the technology advanced. Some, however, guessed right. And I contend that ‘guess’ is the proper word for what felt like intelligent declarations.

I do not own any AI stocks. I suspect the same technological trends will repeat, but the benefits may be indirect as existing companies improve their companies. There will be profitable and pure AI investments, but I’m not guessing which they will be.

I am invested in quantum computers (QBTS). AI is catching a lot of the news, but quantum computers are also positively disruptive and hard to guess. At least for now, I’ve guessed right by buying QBTS. Even with a drop from ~$46 to ~$32, the stock has risen >2,700% in the most recent twelve months. Fine. I sold a bit. As I type, it is an ~$11B market cap based on – let me check again – ~$9M revenue. Note that is revenue, not profit. The company lost ~$144M in that time.

Google Finance

What? Why would someone invest in such a company? History.

Quantum computing potentially – potentially – is a greater positive technological improvement than the PC, in my opinion. I see it as more like the introduction of the transistor. That was 1947. There were decades of disruption to come. There were decades of progress to benefit from.

The problem with such disruptive technologies is – pardon – ‘a’ problem with such disruptive technologies (and there are always more problems) is that there is no industry to compare them to. How big will AI or the quantum computing industry become? Probably not nothing, because they’ve already made a non-zero impact. Probably not everything, because there’s still an economy of people doing things only people can do. The likelihood is probably something. As an investor, guessing at the ‘something’ without the aid of history can mean estimating growth based on the progress of transistors. Investing in MSFT, AAPL, AMZN were very good investments. This could be bigger than those. Or not.

Big ideas can start in businesses that don’t make much money – yet. Good. That makes those stocks cheaper to buy. 

As the technologies make progress, and as their companies project their potential impact, risky investors, really speculators, can bid up the price based on little data. Hey, if it works, why worry the details?
The problem is that a lot of money is spent on enthusiasm. At an extreme, an irrational exuberance. 
What is it that is said about heroes and fools only being different based on someone’s definition of success? 

As I type, QBTS is up >2,800% for the last twelve months. (Note that number changed since I started typing this post.) By conventional wisdom, it is irrational to buy stock in an $11B company that had revenues of less than a few million. By history, such a paradigm-shifting company could potentially be worth hundreds of billions, if not trillions of dollars – eventually. Could.

QBTS and other stocks are into teetering territory. Prices have risen high enough that stockholders rush in and out like waves, not like tides. A random comment from a CEO or politician can swing a stock without any fact-checking. Within the most recent month, QBTS hit a low of ~$24 and a high of ~$47, almost a 100% gain. Then the crowd went away, and then a spurious news item drove it back up to – let me check – ~$33.

The precise price movement is not as important as the fact that, without much rationality, the prices can move that much that quickly.

Irrational exuberance is not rational. Duh. I also call it irrational optimism because humans can also experience irrational pessimism. 

I’m not saying this is a time to invest or not invest. I am not a certified financial person. As an individual, though, I am reflecting on history, psychology, and technology to help me decide what to invest in, and how much to invest. Turmoil is uncomfortable, but I’m old enough to have witnessed and experienced booms and busts, profits and losses, missed and captured opportunities. (I coulda and shoulda bought COST, AMZN, yada, yada.)

Throw in the extra-market turmoil that is politics and this is a time to pay more attention to factual news. 
Irrational exuberance. We’ve seen this before. This time will be different, as every time is; which also means a lot of it will be the same. Hang on for the ride. Remember where the emergency exits are. Remember your goals. And, if you don’t have goals or exits, this is a good time to find them. It already is a bumpy ride.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Sitting On Decisions

Posted on October 17, 2025 by Tom Trimbath

A few days ago, I Sold A Bit Of QBTS (QBTS At 40 So Soon). Listen to a lot of pundits, and it would sound like the money would already be allocated, spent, redistributed. Nope. I’m sitting on those decisions. Conventional wisdom can make it seem that cause and effect have no gap between them. Got the money, do something with it. Eventually. The world is acting quickly enough. I don’t need to accelerate it, and I don’t see the need for it to accelerate me.


Sell some stock. The money ‘settles’ eventually. Sometimes money flows, even digital ones, run into physical or procedural limitations. After I sell a stock, I prefer to wait a few days to make sure I get the cash. I’ve never had cash from a stock sale get lost, but scroll back to when the banks (including the SEC) lost the money from my house sale. (My Money (And Almost My House) Lost In The Wire) 
I’ve taken a week to think. That’s a luxury I don’t want to waste.


The cash should be enough to pay for a few years’ living expenses, but that’s not hard considering that I am getting Social Security (a tenuous proposition), my pension from Boeing (which is about as much as the rent on my storage unit), and my frugal lifestyle (which is a great enabler.) 
I bought the ability to take my time.


And I can dream and scheme.


Scheme? Nothing Machiavellian. Ah. I’ll more appropriately call it planning. What will I do with what I’ve got, and when will I do it?


The long list starts to collect in my thoughts: where to reinvest, pay taxes, begin to repay a personal loan, what to buy, what to keep in reserve, what to use for those living expenses, and treats and how to treat myself. 


Rearrange that.


Taxes first. I won’t need to pay them for a while, but long-term capital gains must eventually be paid. I probably won’t set up a savings account, but I will make sure there’s enough cash to pay the government’s bill. I probably also won’t sell again this year, just to keep the taxes simple – and be ready to change that because the only constant (especially in this current world) is change.


Loans. Friends provided a buffer when I had none, and should be recompensed. Hey, if they don’t need it, great, then they can pay it forward and continue the generosity. 


Reinvest. One way to keep me from spending… Nah. I wouldn’t just spend the money; I’m frugal, remember. But, maintaining my portfolio means tending to the existing positions, and maybe adding one or a few. I am sure some investors, and definitely some traders and speculators, would already redirect the funds into other investments. I’ll wait. I might miss an opportunity ( and LUNR and SLDP are rising as I type), but I might also find a new and therefore more diverse investment. Stay tuned. I may post my research to my One Company One Story video channel .

Buying stuff. Are kitchen appliances considered stuff? My life in my tiny house (MyTinyExperiment.net) has been proving to me how little I need. There’s always something to buy, but little that I actually need. So, I’ll buy a bit of the little I don’t have, but I’ll also shop for two new kitchen appliances: a refrigerator and a range. This house’s gear is almost twenty years old. The fridge makes noises. It also makes ice in ways that aren’t cubes, but as thick old frost. The range may go, too. Swapping propane out and bringing induction and convection in will be a nice upgrade, and may mean a few more square feet of living space. The details should show up in my tiny house blog if I do that.


Living Expenses. Hey, if Social Security continues, that anything I set aside for living expenses could be (frugal) luxury expenses. For me, that’s occasionally eating at a restaurant. Still, it is nice to not be living on the financial edge. Considering current politics, I’ll keep about a year’s expenses in cash, just in case.
Reserves. Gotta have reserves, and in my financial situation, there’s an overlap with those possibly under-spent living expenses. Yet another cash cushion to keep track of.


Treats and treating myself. I’ve lived in the land of necessity and in the land of choice. For over a decade, my frugality was by necessity. Fortunately, I lived frugally by choice for decades before that. Now, I am returning to frugality by choice, and comfort; but I feel a delayed deficit of treating myself well. I pause as I type, which shows me that even considering treating myself better will take an effort. My newest book, Muddling By, is about living in each of our wealth classes, middle-class, millionaire, and muddling by. A rich person who becomes poor must change their spending habits. A poor person who spends as if they are rich will never be rich, except by luck. What I witnessed was too many people who didn’t adapt to their changes. Yesterday, I treated myself to a visit to my doctor about a question. It wasn’t an emergency. I was curious. They had time. I bought some insights. Treat! But, I also know that I have lost the emotional freedom to treat myself to a vacation. Even my recent coast-to-coast road trip was organized as a long chore, essentially. I have to re-free my mind to be comfortable taking time for me without worrying about agendas and expectations. Let’s see if I manage to go somewhere and do nothing for more than a couple of days.

Don’t spend it all in one place. I’ve heard that phrase thrown my way whenever I’ve celebrated some financial success. Have I ever spent it all in one place? No. When you give someone advice, listen to it yourself because it may only be one part of you talking to another part of you and using someone else as an excuse to have that internal conversation. I wonder if they’ve ever spent it all in one place. Would they if they could? I know if there’s enough to worry about taxes, there’s probably a long list of possible places for the money to flow to. Getting the money and spending it the next is a necessity for some, but taking the time to consider treats time as the luxury it is. Time is precious. Life is fast enough. I’ll do what I must, but I’ll also treat myself to taking my time.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment