20 Months Of Cash

Posted on November 21, 2025 by Tom Trimbath

Twenty months of cash. Twenty months of liquid assets: cash, stocks, whatever I’ve hidden in my socks (inside family reference.) About two years ago, I estimated that I had 20 months of cash reserves. If nothing significantly improved my finances, in 20 months I’d be required to sell my house. Back then, that meant potentially selling into an economy responding to a new administration. I’d rather sell before such a crowd of sellers drove down house prices. I decided to sell my house. It sold in May 2024. I am glad. I also was wrong; I only had 8 months of reserves left when the deal sold. (spreadsheet error) I’m doing much better now. I do miss the view.

But what if I never sold? Did I have to sell? In retrospect, it still looks like it was a good idea. Some jobs did arise, but the south Whidbey economy was being increasingly driven by wealth. Even if I had the money, I couldn’t find contractors for home repairs because the contractors were busy enough with higher-wealth clients. I had a few stocks, but they haven’t moved much. My house’s market value hasn’t shifted either. I did lose the only house I’ve considered a home since I graduated high school, and I do miss the view. Oh well.

But what about the move? How has that been?

I miss the view, and I miss being able to socialize. That’s the consequence of living in a tiny house in a mobile home park (MyTinyExperiment.com). But I now have ~100 months of reserves, no mortgage, and a lot less worry. The equity from my house that I sold paid off my official debts, removed those monthly debt payments, removed those strings to some untrustworthy financial institutions, and cleared my mind from a lot of worry. I still haven’t found a job, and don’t feel that I have to get one. I’m learning to relax, and realizing how insidious anxiety had crept into my life by being poor. Much of that realization has come from being able to hire a therapist, and explore much of that life in my book, Muddling By. 

So, how do I have ~100 months of reserves? Some of it is from the leftovers from the house sale. As I mentioned, some of that money went to paying off debt. The rest went into investments, particularly stocks. (Stay tuned for my semi-annual portfolio review at the end of the year.) Join the unresolvable debate as to whether the doubling of my holdings was intelligence, wisdom, luck, destiny, or is unknowable. A few of my new stocks are up hundreds of percent in the most recent twelve months, and more than that since I bought the original shares about 20 months ago. Whew.

Whew, and I am not assuming nothing is going to change. Regular readers know that one of the stocks (QBTS) was up over 4,000%. Today, it is ‘only’ up >900%. I’ve been investing long enough to have several stories on either side, stocks going up thousands of percent, and stocks falling 100%. And yes, I have a high (though not infinite) risk tolerance. I suspect few folks can weather such a ride. Stocks are weird. The world is weird. The two together are quite confused. And, I think I’ve learned the skills to ride through such turbulence. I hope.

I’m glad I did what I did when I sold a bit of QBTS. (See previous posts.) I sold a quarter of my position as the stock got close to $40. I sold at ~$37. The stock rose to ~$46. FOMO. Then, the stock fell to under $20. Whew. I missed the high, but the shares I sold produced (and I didn’t make this connection until I started typing this paragraph) ~20 months of living expenses. Some of that paid off some personal debts. Some went to charity. The majority is being held back to pay taxes, and as cash in case something interrupts Social Security payments. (Imagine that.) I’m not complaining. Some of my shares were purchased at $0.75.

I don’t expect all of my investments to have such a rise.

I also don’t expect all of my investments to have a catastrophic fall.

This isn’t about bragging. It is about being an example of my version of personal finance. Watch it, but without worrying about it (as much as some would.) Act, but not frenetically. Don’t hang onto an old life, an old set of assumptions and habits, out of habit. Don’t wait too long, either. 

I sit, now, at a bit of a plateau. I’m out of debt, comfortable with my cash and lifestyle. I am also hundreds of thousands of dollars away from moving to a house I like in a place I like with many other things I like. I’m also relieved that, after checking local real estate listings, I don’t need millions. A few millions would be handy (#understatement), but a lot of lottery winnings would simply be better distributed to charities and entrepreneurs. 

All such projections are based on assumptions. Math is objective, but the world is chaotic and random, and people and society are unpredictable. 

Oh yeah, and AI is going to change things dramatically, and much sooner than most people suspect. I suspect the majority of people think AI is something that will affect someone else. Not this time. And, regular readers probably recognize a rarity from me, a strong declarative statement. 

Whatever ride we’ve been on may seem calm in comparison to what is coming.

Ah, another reason to celebrate this milestone, and to be prepared for what comes next. At least I’m further from worry (though not removed from it), have cash in the bank (and let’s assume the bank and the money doesn’t disappear), and have hopes and plans for the future (because while many are preparing for a dystopia, I suspect it is also healthy to plan for a positive future – even if I can’t imagine what it might be.)

I do miss that view. Oh well, there are other views to enjoy.

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Both Sides

Posted on November 14, 2025 by Tom Trimbath

Here’s a rarity, telling both sides of a story. Recently, I’ve posted about the successes of a couple of my stocks, QBTS & LUNR. Now, go check the news and probably find scores of articles on a variety of topics. Writing advice I’ve received is to portray a clear, definitive, concise narrative. Regular readers know I am not concise. I try to be clear. As for definitive, most publications stick to one perspective and emphasize it. Only tell the good or the bad, but don’t confuse people with both. Prepare to be confused.

However, I don’t expect any of my readers to be confused. Regular readers have read posts from the ups (DNDN & AMSC), and the downs (DNDN & AMSC), as well as the long-lingering languishing (MVIS).

Life is real. There are ups and downs, and trying to keep my eyes closed for half of it would mean missing a lot.

This week was a week of corrections. QBTS is down about 50% from its spiky high. LUNR is down more than 50% from its high in January; having your rocket lander fall over will do that. Some say sell. I did. I sold a bit of QBTS on its rise. I missed the peak, but I didn’t expect to hit it. I sold a bit earlier. Then, I covered my initial investment. The recent sale realized a profit that covers other investments. I am left with 60% of my initial holdings, and am glad. Sure, the stock is down, but such is the nature of startups.
Sure, LUNR has had two landers land, then tip over. But both companies are not managing by the headlines. Aside from those news items, the companies are progressing their technologies, their products, and their partnerships.

There are no guarantees. There’s the risk. Hopefully, there’s a reward. Hopefully, there are many rewards: advancing quantum computing and space commercialization are nice profits, too.

This does not mean I’m going to go out and celebrate the fallbacks in their stock prices.

Investing in small, startup companies means great volatility. They have relatively few investors. Many of the investors are individuals. Every stock purchase and sale can swing the stock price more significantly than a sale of MSFT. MSFT needs hundreds of millions or billions of dollars in trades to move the price. There are investors who can do that, but they exist in a hyper-competitive realm of financial institutions and oligarchs. I don’t want to have to dance with those elephants. But that also means that my stocks, when found and favored or abandoned, can swing more abruptly.

From what I’ve witnessed, few investors have that level of risk tolerance.

I have that level of risk tolerance, and have felt its consequences.

Within this blog (and in my newest book, Muddling By), I’ve described my Triple Whammy where a moderately diversified portfolio was swung upwards by positive news (DNDN & AMSC), impressive speculation (MVIS), and subsequent shatterings of those dreams. Criminals were responsible for the first two failings. Bad luck affected the third. Having those happen as the Great Recession (the Second Great Depression) was happening, which meant I couldn’t sell my house or get a regular job.

And I’ve continued to chronicle the progress here, in this blog – because the story doesn’t end because I wrote a book, or someone got elected, or a new technology was invented, or whatever.

The recent fallbacks were episodes in an ongoing story. Only acknowledging the highs means ignoring parts of living. Stocks go up and down. I acknowledge both. I may act because of it, but I’m more likely to simply watch it.

One reality of my investing is persistence. ‘Keep at it’ seems a silly phrase for something that is simply doing nothing more than watching, but it also means watching the ups and the downs, and watching them well enough to know when something fundamental has changed. Things have changed at the companies I am invested in, mostly. The biotechs (GERN & LCTX) are progressing through clinical trials and some commercialization. The battery companies (SLDP & GMGMF) are progressing their relative technologies. QBTS is being recognized as more than a quantum computing lab bench. LUNR is surprising some by acquiring companies, almost as if they plan to live up to their seriousness about commercializing space. MVIS, well, MVIS, … If MVIS ever succeeds, maybe I’ll write a book about it. If it doesn’t succeed, decades of investor anxieties will join those from thousands of other failed ventures.

So, yes. There was some retreat in some of my investments, but for me, and for this post, it is important to acknowledge both sides, the ups and the downs, and not to rely on headlines and sound bites that are only one or the other. Life’s more complicated than that. Good.

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Luck And A Bit Of SLDP and LUNR – November 2025

Posted on November 5, 2025 by Tom Trimbath

As I mentioned recently, once upon a time, I’d post my stock trades on the Motley Fool. I posted that when I bought a bit more LUNR. I had some cash left from a sale of some of my QBTS stock, so I bought some more of another of my holdings, SLDP. I thought about waiting before doing anything else, but SLDP went up over 50% today, so I bought a bit more LUNR, again. And that’s probably enough for now. Probably. Maybe.


OK. That’s chronicled. Sold some QBTS, so I bought some SLDP and some LUNR. That’s a concise summary that hides a lot of details. A writer of biographies could summarize each dead person’s history as, ‘they were born, they lived, and they died.’ That hides a lot of details.

Here are some details.

QBTS is building quantum computers. I considered it a risky investment that may take years to become profitable, but if they succeeded, the profits could be impressive. The product could also be as positive and disruptive as something like microchips or the transistor. I was wrong. This blog contains descriptions of some of that success. Currently, QBTS is up more than 2,700% in the most recent twelve months. I sold a bit to cover my initial investment. Then I sold a bit to realize a profit. The rest is unrealized profit, aka owning the other shares for a while longer, possibly much longer.

LUNR is developing a space-based business that is concentrating on lunar missions. I’ll copy and paste a bit of the previous paragraph. “I considered it a risky investment that may take years to become profitable, but if they succeeded, the profits could be impressive. The product could also be as positive and disruptive…”, but instead of chips, I considered LUNR to be more akin to SpaceX. LUNR would be smaller because it mostly works on lunar products and services, while Space X is space in general. It is only up >33% in the previous twelve months, but the historical average is more like 7% to 10%, so, good. And, their failures (like landers falling over) distract people from their successes (being paid for 85% mission success.) Good. Don’t fall over so much. And then they announced a major purchase of a satellite manufacturer, which broadens their business. Good. Glad I bought a bit more.

SLDP builds solid-state batteries. Skipping the technical jargon, Solid-state batteries can be the next generation of batteries past Lithium-ion batteries, which were preceded by alkaline batteries, which were preceded by batteries that couldn’t hold a charge for very long. Next-generation tech appeals to me, especially when it can charge more quickly, hold more power, use materials that are easier to find and mine, and are safer. For someone like me, who remembers pre-alkaline batteries, the potential looks enormous. And, as I mentioned above, “I considered it a risky investment that may take years to become profitable, but if they succeeded, the profits could be impressive. The product could also be as positive and disruptive…” Like. Oh, and SLDP has been chosen by Samsung and BMW to develop a prototype car. The stock is up ~60% in the most recent five trading days, and is up more than 600% since this time last year. Timing? Yes. Luck? Also yes.

Note a common thread. “I considered it a risky investment that may take years to become profitable, but if they succeeded, the profits could be impressive. The product could also be as positive and disruptive…” That is not a guarantee. I have three stocks that fit that description but not those results – so far. I’ve held shares of MVIS, GERN, and now LCTX since circa 2000. MVIS, down more than 96%. GERN, down more than 84%. LCTX, down more than 45%. I’ve lost more than that because those are estimates from historical data on Google, not the exact prices I purchased them at. 

Timing. Yes. Luck? Also yes.

I buy for the long term because, mathematically in my opinion, the stock market is chaotic. It can’t be accurately predicted. Success is anticipated and discussed, and frequently delayed. Failure is rarely sudden and final, and usually relegated to a long list of prudent business considerations. Few of my stocks have lost 100%, though the precise point is moot when the loss is over 90%. Few of my stocks have gained over 100%, though some rise thousands of percent. The gains have countered the losses, though the balancing act had years of bad bounces. (See My Triple Whammy.)

Luck.

Sometimes when I’ve discussed bad luck, I’ve been judged as victimizing my story.

Sometimes when I’ve discussed good luck, I’ve been branded as not giving myself enough credit.

I’m me. I’m reasonably intelligent. I’m also reasonably self-aware. I will give myself credit for my skills and acknowledge my faults, but I will also note that luck, good and bad, has had an influence that was out of my control. This isn’t a statement of victimization or giving myself credit as much as acknowledging that luck has an influence, too. 

I hope I made that point implicitly and explicitly in my book, Muddling By. I’ve been middle-class, a millionaire, and basically muddling by. In retrospect, it is easy to say I should’ve done this or that, but that’s life. In a capitalistic society, it is easy to equate net worth with personal value. Spout a number and an easy categorization shortens conversational introductions. I’ve been in each category, and in retrospect it has been interesting to see me being categorized – and then to realize it is happening to all of us.
Luck impacts wealth, positive and negative, and even though we say we can make luck, random chance happens too.

Hmm. Didn’t expect this post to get here, but here it is. I guess that’s a bit of luck.

Pardon me as I pause my typing to consider that.

(pause)

(breathe)

OK.

These times are dynamic. I’ll skip the politics, except to say that I vote and to thank everyone who votes. If you don’t vote, well, you probably aren’t reading blog posts about personal finance and community. Personal finance is a necessity in this society. Some use it to accumulate wealth. I use it to finance a personal life, and to help others as I can. I research companies more than research stocks, because core business products and services are the basis of a company’s worth. But they, like me, live within a world of plans and luck. Sometimes great ideas fail, regardless of their inherent value. Some ideas appear great because, by luck, they made lots of money. I am sure there is no perfect procedure for making profit, both for companies and people, but we do our best; and I do think doing my best is recognizing that luck plays a role. Sometimes, that luck is positive, and can appear random, and can appear planned. I’ll let the philosophers debate the possibilities. In the meantime, I’ll continue investing, watching the news, researching, voting, – and buying lottery tickets. Hey, I could really lucky in a really good way.

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A Good Week – October 2025

Posted on October 31, 2025 by Tom Trimbath

Good weeks can happen too. There were at least two pieces of good book news, three pieces of stock news, and a compliment or a few. Which to write about? We get enough weird news from the world lately. I’ll share each of these because good news deserves to be mentioned too.

Muddling By

A friend called to read a quote back to me. They’re reading my latest book, Muddling By, and wanted to thank me (or congratulate me?) for writing the following line.

“Visitors to the simple life have a different experience than those who live there involuntarily.”

We live in tourist towns. Tourist towns can be social centers wrapped with rural lands. People can be a mix of local farm folk, retirees, and people temporarily escaping their corporate and urban lives. Some visit the simple life. Some choose to live there. Some do not have a choice. They may all stay in a tiny house on a small acreage, but one is there for the weekend, one is there to relax and recover, and one is there because where else would they go?

And yet, we have to find one set of laws, regulations, and norms that can fit all. That isn’t easy.

And, thanks for the compliment about the quote. There are more like it in the book. (For sale online, but maybe your library can carry a copy.)

Podcast

Serendipity and synchronicity happen. I attended an HSN (Housing Solutions Network?) meeting this week about affordable housing in Jefferson County. I almost – almost – kept my mouth shut. Really, I have tried to scale back from my active life of volunteering and such, partly from doctors’ (note the plural) orders/suggestions, but the unofficial coordinator asked if anyone who hadn’t talked wanted to add an observation. OK. I spoke up.

I spoke up to reinforce the experiences mentioned by a minority at the event. The event was doing good work. The event was like others I’ve seen, people working hard at trying to navigate a way through funding, regulatory, and economic issues to make more housing available. Frequently, the discussion is about how to build more housing. Good. But I heard and emphasized a comment that pointed out the severity of the issue that is easy to overlook.

Some people can’t buy anything. Some people have jobs that don’t produce the income and documentation that lenders and landlords require. They can be the most exposed, and the least represented. Let’s not forget about the homeless, and don’t assume that they want to own or even need a traditional house.
Living in a camping trailer may be a step up, especially to someone living in the forest, yet they are overlooked. They probably have a housing solution in mind, yet they are not permitted, as in officially not granted a permit, to live.

I’ll skip some of the details for privacy reasons, but I realized that we may be able to give them a voice through a podcast. By attending without expecting to participate, serendipity and synchronicity may have enabled some of us to produce and provide such a voice. Stay tuned.

Back To Books
It is easy to remember to mention my latest book (Muddling By), but when I checked its status on Amazon, I noticed that a book I wrote over twenty years ago had a sale. Twelve Months at Merritt Lake was found by a customer. Cool. Some topics are timeless, but given enough time, they can be overlooked, too.



Twelve Months at Merritt Lake was the third in my trilogy of Twelve Month books in the Washington Cascades. Barclay Lake is on the wet side, basically in a temperate rain forest. Lake Valhalla is at the crest. Merritt Lake is in drier terrain where forest fires are more common. So are errant livestock. So are guns and hunters. So is wilderness area that overwhelms humanity in its scale.
Nature’s presence is the core of the book, and is why reading it twenty years later is still appropriate. Read on, and thanks.

Compliments
We can never share every compliment that we think of. We’re busy enough. Taking the time to thank everyone for everything would take all of our time. We’d all be more thankful, but we still need to do the laundry and pay the bills. Besides, a conversation of compliments can be dull, as if we need some simple small talk to smooth out each day’s bumps. And yet, this week has delivered more compliments than usual. I’ve been able to share some, too. I’ll pass along this one that was delivered to me via social media.
“Reading your words is like settling in for a cup of tea while sharing a window seat with a friend.”
See? Social media is good for something. Thanks.

Stocks
Amidst the rest of the week, three of my stocks delivered unexpected and good news.

SLDP makes solid batteries, basically. Most cars use lithium-ion batteries that use a fluid. They also use Lithium. So, getting the materials is troublesome. Fluids leak, and in particular, result in a battery that can catch fire. Lithium-ion batteries got us this far, but there is a lot of work going on for the next generation of batteries. SLDP announced that they are working with partners to make a prototype with BMW. That’s a major step past a lab bench, and good news.

LUNR is known for making lunar landers that land and then fall over. People laugh. People tend to ignore that, at least according to some objective criteria, LUNR has hit 85% of their work items. Add to those items the fact that LUNR will now be working on developing nuclear power sources for lunar orbit. That’s business.

QBTS (what’s its 1-year ROI? Oh. Ah. >3,300%) may be included in a US government plan that will involve the US owning a bit of the stock. I won’t say much more because politics is weird lately, but whether the company wants it or not, the stock responded positively. I don’t buy stock based on politics, but I also try to recognize political realities.


Was there more good news? Certainly. But, as I mentioned above, thanking everyone for everything would take longer than I want to type. Besides, there’s a dance to get ready for, and I just got my first hot-towel razor shave and trim. I might look respectable. I wonder if anyone will notice.

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Bought A Bit Of LUNR Again – October 2025

Posted on October 27, 2025 by Tom Trimbath

Once upon a time, I’d post my stock trades on the Motley Fool. This forum, my blog, seems to be a more public and more trafficked place for such things lately. So, here’s a quick note. I bought some more LUNR. Let’s see if I ramble into a longer article.


Recently, I sold some of my QBTS. (QBTS At 40 So Soon) That was partly to realize some profits. It was also because I think the market is at least temporarily into Irrational Exuberance Again. Done.

Done, but not. The realized sale can also be called cash. A big checking account is very welcome after years of worry. A cash buffer is a good thing. But excess cash doesn’t grow, doesn’t do good work, and continually reminds me to do something with it. The taxes are covered. Good. I know about how much I want to reserve for living expenses and that cash cushion. I’ve already paid some personal debts. My kitchen may get an upgraded appliance or two. That leaves me with more than enough to reinvest. Any compounding in my portfolio is the result of sales being reinvested. I bought some more LUNR.

LUNR, which I consider to be poorly named as Intuitive Machines, is a company with a space-based business model. Cool. And risky. Twice they’ve landed craft on the Moon. Twice the craft have tipped over. Oops.

As an ex-aerospace engineer, I can understand why. Space is tricky. I’ll skip the details because YouTubers like Scott Manley explained LUNR’s situation better.

As an investor, I see a company that is overlooked because its main graphics are of fallen lunar landers – despite succeeding at many of their other lunar infrastructure projects. Tippy landers make the news, but successfully meeting 85% of their objectives – and getting paid for it – means there may be overlooked value. And, hopefully, third time is a charm and an entry into a more profitable and successful era. That’s why I buy companies, because they might do something good and make money doing it.

Eventually, I’ll return to researching other possibilities. Maybe more LUNR. But there are thousands of public companies to consider. I listen to my intuition and emotions, as well as considering logical and objective criteria. My thoughts kept returning to buying a bit more, so I did. I didn’t buy as much as I wanted, but at least I bought more. After I buy a range or a fridge or both or whatever, I’ll consider what else to consider.

In the meantime, it is time for me, the author of Muddling By, A Rollercoaster Ride Through America’s Wealth Classes, to do some authory stuff like telling people about the book, producing and publishing the ebook, submitting it to the Library of Congress, while also working on Twelve Months on Hurricane Ridge, and the third book in my sci-fi trilogy (the Exodus/Genesis series, Firewatcher and Fire Race). Oh yeah, and maybe take some time off and celebrate the season.

Five hundred words? Yeah, that’s enough typing for a Monday morning. Next up, trying to move my range so I can see what will be required to switch from propane to induction/convection. That story will get told on my tiny house blog, MyTinyExperiment.net.
(Oh, and if you’re curious about my writing, there’s a blog for that, too. (https://tomthewriter.net/)
Hmm. Maybe a nap, first.

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Irrational Exuberance Again

Posted on October 24, 2025 by Tom Trimbath

Irrational exuberance again? The stock market is up again? But it sounds and looks like the world is in turmoil. Isn’t it? Not-exactly-a-news-flash = the market is not the world, and a crowd of supposedly intelligent investors can act like a mob of wannabes. We humans are so silly. Or, maybe this time is different.

Was it really back in 1996, almost thirty years ago, when the Fed chairman, Alan Greenspan, warned about a market that was possibly irrationally exuberant? Note that ‘possibly’ because the comment was made in public and Fed chairmen are rarely emphatic. They use wiggle words to allow a way out of conversational traps.

Google Finance

He was right. The dotcom bubble burst. The markets tumbled. People lost money. 

And, the general economy recovered. Many dotcoms became today’s monopolies. The markets rose, again. People made money.

And then there was the Great Recession (the Second Great Depression in my opinion). And then there was the … a continuing string of booms and busts. 

The markets are booming again. In the most recent five years, the NASDAQ index has doubled. That’s roughly a 15% increase every year, which is about double the historical average. Look at the data in more detail and see a much more turbulent ride. That’s normal. Wars, elections, crises create swings in the markets. 

Google Finance

Currently, the AI possibilities are creating a lot of enthusiasm and worry. If AI is effective, economies, businesses, and most lives will change. If so, now is the time to reposition portfolios (and careers) to take best advantage of the situation.

The problem now is like the problem then. The enthusiasts knew, or at least strongly guessed, that great things were coming. When the bubble burst, they might have been hurt. Many guesses at investments faded even as the technology advanced. Some, however, guessed right. And I contend that ‘guess’ is the proper word for what felt like intelligent declarations.

I do not own any AI stocks. I suspect the same technological trends will repeat, but the benefits may be indirect as existing companies improve their companies. There will be profitable and pure AI investments, but I’m not guessing which they will be.

I am invested in quantum computers (QBTS). AI is catching a lot of the news, but quantum computers are also positively disruptive and hard to guess. At least for now, I’ve guessed right by buying QBTS. Even with a drop from ~$46 to ~$32, the stock has risen >2,700% in the most recent twelve months. Fine. I sold a bit. As I type, it is an ~$11B market cap based on – let me check again – ~$9M revenue. Note that is revenue, not profit. The company lost ~$144M in that time.

Google Finance

What? Why would someone invest in such a company? History.

Quantum computing potentially – potentially – is a greater positive technological improvement than the PC, in my opinion. I see it as more like the introduction of the transistor. That was 1947. There were decades of disruption to come. There were decades of progress to benefit from.

The problem with such disruptive technologies is – pardon – ‘a’ problem with such disruptive technologies (and there are always more problems) is that there is no industry to compare them to. How big will AI or the quantum computing industry become? Probably not nothing, because they’ve already made a non-zero impact. Probably not everything, because there’s still an economy of people doing things only people can do. The likelihood is probably something. As an investor, guessing at the ‘something’ without the aid of history can mean estimating growth based on the progress of transistors. Investing in MSFT, AAPL, AMZN were very good investments. This could be bigger than those. Or not.

Big ideas can start in businesses that don’t make much money – yet. Good. That makes those stocks cheaper to buy. 

As the technologies make progress, and as their companies project their potential impact, risky investors, really speculators, can bid up the price based on little data. Hey, if it works, why worry the details?
The problem is that a lot of money is spent on enthusiasm. At an extreme, an irrational exuberance. 
What is it that is said about heroes and fools only being different based on someone’s definition of success? 

As I type, QBTS is up >2,800% for the last twelve months. (Note that number changed since I started typing this post.) By conventional wisdom, it is irrational to buy stock in an $11B company that had revenues of less than a few million. By history, such a paradigm-shifting company could potentially be worth hundreds of billions, if not trillions of dollars – eventually. Could.

QBTS and other stocks are into teetering territory. Prices have risen high enough that stockholders rush in and out like waves, not like tides. A random comment from a CEO or politician can swing a stock without any fact-checking. Within the most recent month, QBTS hit a low of ~$24 and a high of ~$47, almost a 100% gain. Then the crowd went away, and then a spurious news item drove it back up to – let me check – ~$33.

The precise price movement is not as important as the fact that, without much rationality, the prices can move that much that quickly.

Irrational exuberance is not rational. Duh. I also call it irrational optimism because humans can also experience irrational pessimism. 

I’m not saying this is a time to invest or not invest. I am not a certified financial person. As an individual, though, I am reflecting on history, psychology, and technology to help me decide what to invest in, and how much to invest. Turmoil is uncomfortable, but I’m old enough to have witnessed and experienced booms and busts, profits and losses, missed and captured opportunities. (I coulda and shoulda bought COST, AMZN, yada, yada.)

Throw in the extra-market turmoil that is politics and this is a time to pay more attention to factual news. 
Irrational exuberance. We’ve seen this before. This time will be different, as every time is; which also means a lot of it will be the same. Hang on for the ride. Remember where the emergency exits are. Remember your goals. And, if you don’t have goals or exits, this is a good time to find them. It already is a bumpy ride.

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Sitting On Decisions

Posted on October 17, 2025 by Tom Trimbath

A few days ago, I Sold A Bit Of QBTS (QBTS At 40 So Soon). Listen to a lot of pundits, and it would sound like the money would already be allocated, spent, redistributed. Nope. I’m sitting on those decisions. Conventional wisdom can make it seem that cause and effect have no gap between them. Got the money, do something with it. Eventually. The world is acting quickly enough. I don’t need to accelerate it, and I don’t see the need for it to accelerate me.


Sell some stock. The money ‘settles’ eventually. Sometimes money flows, even digital ones, run into physical or procedural limitations. After I sell a stock, I prefer to wait a few days to make sure I get the cash. I’ve never had cash from a stock sale get lost, but scroll back to when the banks (including the SEC) lost the money from my house sale. (My Money (And Almost My House) Lost In The Wire) 
I’ve taken a week to think. That’s a luxury I don’t want to waste.


The cash should be enough to pay for a few years’ living expenses, but that’s not hard considering that I am getting Social Security (a tenuous proposition), my pension from Boeing (which is about as much as the rent on my storage unit), and my frugal lifestyle (which is a great enabler.) 
I bought the ability to take my time.


And I can dream and scheme.


Scheme? Nothing Machiavellian. Ah. I’ll more appropriately call it planning. What will I do with what I’ve got, and when will I do it?


The long list starts to collect in my thoughts: where to reinvest, pay taxes, begin to repay a personal loan, what to buy, what to keep in reserve, what to use for those living expenses, and treats and how to treat myself. 


Rearrange that.


Taxes first. I won’t need to pay them for a while, but long-term capital gains must eventually be paid. I probably won’t set up a savings account, but I will make sure there’s enough cash to pay the government’s bill. I probably also won’t sell again this year, just to keep the taxes simple – and be ready to change that because the only constant (especially in this current world) is change.


Loans. Friends provided a buffer when I had none, and should be recompensed. Hey, if they don’t need it, great, then they can pay it forward and continue the generosity. 


Reinvest. One way to keep me from spending… Nah. I wouldn’t just spend the money; I’m frugal, remember. But, maintaining my portfolio means tending to the existing positions, and maybe adding one or a few. I am sure some investors, and definitely some traders and speculators, would already redirect the funds into other investments. I’ll wait. I might miss an opportunity ( and LUNR and SLDP are rising as I type), but I might also find a new and therefore more diverse investment. Stay tuned. I may post my research to my One Company One Story video channel .

Buying stuff. Are kitchen appliances considered stuff? My life in my tiny house (MyTinyExperiment.net) has been proving to me how little I need. There’s always something to buy, but little that I actually need. So, I’ll buy a bit of the little I don’t have, but I’ll also shop for two new kitchen appliances: a refrigerator and a range. This house’s gear is almost twenty years old. The fridge makes noises. It also makes ice in ways that aren’t cubes, but as thick old frost. The range may go, too. Swapping propane out and bringing induction and convection in will be a nice upgrade, and may mean a few more square feet of living space. The details should show up in my tiny house blog if I do that.


Living Expenses. Hey, if Social Security continues, that anything I set aside for living expenses could be (frugal) luxury expenses. For me, that’s occasionally eating at a restaurant. Still, it is nice to not be living on the financial edge. Considering current politics, I’ll keep about a year’s expenses in cash, just in case.
Reserves. Gotta have reserves, and in my financial situation, there’s an overlap with those possibly under-spent living expenses. Yet another cash cushion to keep track of.


Treats and treating myself. I’ve lived in the land of necessity and in the land of choice. For over a decade, my frugality was by necessity. Fortunately, I lived frugally by choice for decades before that. Now, I am returning to frugality by choice, and comfort; but I feel a delayed deficit of treating myself well. I pause as I type, which shows me that even considering treating myself better will take an effort. My newest book, Muddling By, is about living in each of our wealth classes, middle-class, millionaire, and muddling by. A rich person who becomes poor must change their spending habits. A poor person who spends as if they are rich will never be rich, except by luck. What I witnessed was too many people who didn’t adapt to their changes. Yesterday, I treated myself to a visit to my doctor about a question. It wasn’t an emergency. I was curious. They had time. I bought some insights. Treat! But, I also know that I have lost the emotional freedom to treat myself to a vacation. Even my recent coast-to-coast road trip was organized as a long chore, essentially. I have to re-free my mind to be comfortable taking time for me without worrying about agendas and expectations. Let’s see if I manage to go somewhere and do nothing for more than a couple of days.

Don’t spend it all in one place. I’ve heard that phrase thrown my way whenever I’ve celebrated some financial success. Have I ever spent it all in one place? No. When you give someone advice, listen to it yourself because it may only be one part of you talking to another part of you and using someone else as an excuse to have that internal conversation. I wonder if they’ve ever spent it all in one place. Would they if they could? I know if there’s enough to worry about taxes, there’s probably a long list of possible places for the money to flow to. Getting the money and spending it the next is a necessity for some, but taking the time to consider treats time as the luxury it is. Time is precious. Life is fast enough. I’ll do what I must, but I’ll also treat myself to taking my time.

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QBTS At 40 So Soon

Posted on October 13, 2025 by Tom Trimbath

Again, “I’m not bragging. I’m not boasting.” That’s what I said in my recent post. (QBTS And Luck – October 10, 2025) I’m not even celebrating. The emotional news of selling a bit of my QBTS holdings hasn’t sunk into my hormones. The news is still having to settle in through my brain. That journey, that mental and emotional journey is what I intend to share because it is a bit of reality that might be useful to other people, other investors. My main quote from the morning, “Whew.”

For those who want to review my history with QBTS, click through this link. 

As I type, the stock is up over 3,600% in the most recent twelve months.

Google Finance

As I type, it is up over 13.5% so far today. It is a wild ride, and one that benefits from watching the daily news even though I rarely trade. Here I am in October, and this is my first trade of the year. I am not an active trader, but I do find the market more fascinating than most fiction.

Google Finance


As I mentioned in that previous post, “Knowing, or at least guessing well, about when to sell is an art that involves math.”

Despite my daily diligence, I missed a peak at $39.55. I slept in. It happens. I resigned myself to waiting and watching for the stock to recover investors’ enthusiasm, knowing it might take months. 

This morning, I didn’t sleep in as much. Evidently, it started up over $1, dropped, then rose. Here comes the emotional or at least the biomedical response. I calmed myself to leave that tab open because the stock just might meet my $40 goal, or at least my $38.50 acceptable target, while I made breakfast and dove through my normal morning routine. Regardless of the market and finances, a person’s got to eat, and brushing my teeth is a good idea.

But I couldn’t pretend to myself that it was an unemotional response. I wasn’t eager, like on a child’s Christmas morning. I wasn’t as worried as some are around a crisis. I was somewhat anxious and concerned and hopeful. And I kept reminding myself that I could miss this peak, too, and that it would be okay. I didn’t need to sell. I could benefit from a sale, and stocks are held to sell (sans dividends), so it was prudent that I watched. So, I watched.

That didn’t take long. As I ate breakfast, the stock climbed back up towards $38. I’ve missed out on gains on several occasions by waiting for that next dollar, but waiting for that next dollar is how my QBTS managed to go from ~$1 to ~$37. 

Here is the advantage of not selling everything.

I was ‘only’ going to sell about a quarter of what I held. When I bought the stock, I purposely bought it in a few blocks. I sold the first block when the stock rose enough for me to recover my initial investment. That was 20% of my holdings. I was planning on selling the next block, which would be 25% of my holdings. Each block was the same size, but each sale diminished the shares remaining in my account. Whatever I did, I’d still have those other shares.

And I watched. And I refreshed the screen. And I watched. And I noticed my feelings. 

Personal finance shouldn’t be a stress. I’ve lived through a portion of life that definitely was, but this sale would largely be a discretionary benefit. I didn’t have to do it. I wanted to do it.

My feelings of anxiety and concern could have a cost. Mental health is important. Why raise my blood pressure over a few extra pennies? Granted, those few extra pennies would be multiplied by how many shares I sold, and that reality was not to be ignored. More can be better. But despite the movie line, greed is not good. I asked myself was it good enough to sell at $37.50 instead of $38.50 or even waiting for $40? I’d miss out on the price of an appliance, but if the stock fell back I’d have most of the gain, and if the stock continued to rise my other shares would reflect that.

I sold at $37.955. Whew. Good enough.

I double-checked my account balance, updated my rarely opened investment spreadsheet, and slowly and calmly returned to the day’s chores.

I frequently reflect on a variation of an old adage.

Chop wood, carry water.
Reach enlightenment.
Chop wood, carry water.

Though I prefer my modern variation.

Pay bills. Do laundry.
Celebrate progress.
Pay bills. Do laundry.

Goals are great. Celebrate them as they are reached, but life will return to familiar chores.

BTW I type this while my washer/dryer is busy cleaning the weekend’s clothes. The bills are already paid.

BTW As I type this,  QBTS is up >17% and is above where I sold those shares, $38.71.

My approach to personal finance is not unemotional. I am human. I have emotions. I decide not to ignore them. Personal finance does require a personal choice about how to balance emotions versus practicality. Irrational pessimism and irrational optimism are extremes to avoid. But pessimism and optimism can benefit the process by encouraging and considering the possibilities. How bad can things get? How good can things be?

Now that I’ve sold the stock, my cash balance has blossomed. I will not spend it all in one place. The majority will be reinvested. That’s the way investing works. I’ll also set aside some for the inevitable taxes (long term capital gains). There’s a personal debt I want to repay. And I won’t ignore the small celebrations that this sale can enable. Maybe a new fridge. Maybe a short trip or two. The biggest emotional benefit I’ve experienced has been a cash cushion in my checking account. But that’s a story I’ve already touched on in this blog and in my recent book, Muddling By. Hmm. I wonder if I can afford a bit more advertising? First, go check the laundry.



OK. Maybe another look at the stock. Up 23%?! I missed some of that money, but not most, but I also saved my psyche a morning of anxiously asking myself, “Do I sell now? How about now? But what if?”


Additional thought:

Is this an assault on the shorts? Hmm. Maybe not directly. But, some news item says some bank says they might invest in quantum companies, which may also result in a short squeeze unintentionally. That’s a lot of action based on a lot of uncertainty. OK.

Interim results, up 4,000% in the most recent twelve months.

At market close, QBTS was $40.62, up 23% for the day, up 3,921% for the recent twelve months – and I’m going to take a nap. Whew.

Google Finance
Google Finance



Feels like a bubble, but I already got my initial investment out, just realized >700% profit, and still have 3/5 of my initial shares. I should feel more celebratory. Maybe a drink with dinner, eh?

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QBTS And Luck – October 10, 2025

Posted on October 10, 2025 by Tom Trimbath

I’m not bragging. I’m not boasting. I am also not ignoring my unrealized good fortune. D-Wave Quantum’s stock, QBTS, hit a new high this week, $39.55. I missed quantifying the peak, but the stock closed the week at $33.02 for a one-year gain of over 3,600%. Good things can happen, and I prefer not to ignore them. I also didn’t act on it. I slept in. So it goes, and maybe keeps going.

Google Finance


I do not advise anyone. I particularly do not advise anyone to invest in stocks the way I do. I do, however, point out that it is possible to see returns that far exceed the historical averages of ~7% to ~10%. Single-digit returns can make investing seem silly. Few expect to win the lottery. With a bit more than lottery luck and an acceptance of some risk, it is possible to see returns that are in that middle. Thanks to some good luck, my portfolio is up over 150% over the most recent twelve months.

Thanks to some good luck.

Bad luck happens, too.

I’ve written about some of my bad investing luck in this blog and also in my recently published book, Muddling By. Criminal acts against two of my stocks cost me ~80% of my net worth circa 2008. Not being able to get a job or sell my house meant drawing down my investments until I’d lost 98%. Hence, the beginning of My Triple Whammy. 



Those losses weren’t from a lack of investing logic. Both companies, DNDN and AMSC, were succeeding with their products (in my opinion), but both were targeted by criminals. That’s true of crime in general. 

(The third part of My Triple Whammy continues to play out as I wait for MVIS to do something besides simply survive.)

If I followed writing advice, I’d share this part last, but I prefer to disclose this part early. That 3,600% gain is unrealized. Unrealized means I haven’t sold the stock. I haven’t ‘made’ that money until I sell. But I also don’t want to wait until then because this is happening now. 

I also want to chronicle this stock’s performance. 

I almost realized some of the gains. Almost.

I watch my stocks, but I rarely trade. I haven’t sold anything this year. Maybe I will. Maybe I won’t. I do, however, watch the stocks daily because small companies can change quickly. As QBTS started to suddenly rise, I started to watch it more intently. I buy stocks to eventually sell them, hopefully for a profit. I’d already sold enough to clear my initial purchase. I was and am letting the profits run.
Knowing, or at least guessing well, about when to sell is an art that involves math. Guesswork is involved because the future is uncertain. Pick your preferred style.

Sell because you have to or because there’s something better.

Sell with a 10% profit, or 20%, or 30%, …, or 100%,… or 1,000%, or…

Selling with a profit is a success. The details describe the success’ extent.

I do Not have a fixed, rigid, sales philosophy. I sell when I feel it is the time to sell. There’s usually some math involved, but each situation is unique, so I remain adaptable.

I do Not sell at a fixed, rigid percentage because I’ve missed out on more gains than any 100% losses I’ve encountered. 

Roughly, I bought QBTS near $1. As a reminder, it closed today at $33.02. If I had sold at $2, I would’ve made 100% (ignoring taxes and commissions and such). Profit! But where else would I put the money? Simply buying something else is like finding a favorite fishing hole, then deciding to go elk hunting instead. QBTS was going up. D-Wave was improving. I’m staying.

And yet, I’ve also seen stellar stocks crash. So, I typically pick a portion to sell at some elevated price. I decided on ~25% of my QBTS to sell at $40. My amateur knowledge of market psychology suggested that others might have the same idea, so I’d probably sell at $38.50 unless it was rocketing up. It started the week at $31.85. Monday, it closed at ~$36. I joked with an acquaintance about the stock because I didn’t expect to see those prices until later 2025 or 2026, if ever. I relaxed. 

Tuesday, I slept in. I slept in for ~1 hour after the market opened In that brief window, QBTS hit $39.55. I missed it. OK. Maybe it will bounce back. Not so far. I am Not heartbroken. I bought the stock near $1. If the stock fell back to $2, I’d have a 100% gain. I’d be bummed, but financially ahead. 

It is hard to know how high a stock can go. Math may provide an answer, but the investment community’s psychology matters too. Is it unrealistic to imagine a $1 stock going to $2? A $2 stock going to $4? A $4 stock going to $8? An $8 stock going to $16? A $16 stock going to $32? How about a $32 stock going to $64? And on…

Each of those doublings may seem reasonable because they already happened. Why not $64, or $128, or more? There are reasons to limit corporate expectations. There are practical industrial limits. But stocks involve emotions which defy logic.

I slept in and missed out on selling at almost $40. My acquaintance grinned and said they thought the universe was playing with me. They might be right.

I do not know how big D-Wave and QBTS can be. The market is guessing too. Quantum computing is a new industry. We’re all just guessing.

I’d be more likely to sell if the proceeds could do more than buy a new car. A new house would need much more. The performance so far continues to mean I am much further from my recent world of worry. I won’t complain.

I will also take this as a reminder of the power of luck. I’ve seen good luck and had luck, and I’ve seen hard work. I can’t claim credit for hard work creating my current wealth. And I will thank and won’t ignore the benefits of good luck. 

Holding QBTS, and fascinated to have a front-row seat.

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Muddling By – A Rollercoaster Ride Through America’s Wealth Classes

Posted on October 3, 2025 by Tom Trimbath

A heady day. Hmm. Such a heady day, in a good way, that I think I’ll take some headache medication because adjusting to good news can be taxing, too – especially because the flurry of activity that surrounds publishing a book is a lot of activity. Rats. I already buried the lede. Welcome to the publication of Muddling By, A Rollercoaster Ride Through America’s Wealth Classes. It is one person’s view (me) of what it’s like to be middle class, a millionaire, and muddling by in America. Pardon any missteps, but I wanted to get it done and available while we still have an America, or at least a USA.

As the description on Amazon says;
“Muddling By explores about two dozen topics seen from his roller coaster ride through middle class, millionaire, and muddling by.
…
Each topic looks different from each class, but all are valid.
Most of us are just trying to get by, living inside the implicit confines of our community.
Few are oligarchs. Few are criminals.

We made up money and wealth. We’ve decided to permit poverty.”

Here begins the next challenge for any writer, trying to concisely describe what they’ve written. 

(pardon the long introspective pause that readers don’t get to see)

Our culture in the US has devolved into an internal Us versus Them. It’s not a surprise. Our culture grew, particularly when the Them was external and a real threat. Regular readers know I’ve gone from middle class to millionaire to muddling by. From the media narrative, each of those has been a Them to someone else. For me, each was always just me. I’ve come to realize that there is no true Them until you get into the realms of the oligarchs who purposely distance themselves from Us. This story, this book, is about two dozen-ish topics seen from the various perspectives: middle class, millionaire, and muddling by. This book is about those generalities, which I contrast with my realities. 

Most people are simply trying to get by with what they have, where they are, within the community that accepts them. Each ‘wealth class’ is legal and valid, mostly. I have met people who break the law, and that’s been true in every community. The greater majority are people who live valid and legal lives without more than a normal amount of human compassion and occasional disgruntlement. 

The media, the pundits, and the politicians thrive off the disgruntlement. 

Conventional writing wisdom is to emphasize the disgruntlement. Writers are advised to find the conflict and the drama.

What I’ve witnessed is that everyone I know has some battle, regardless of wealth. Granted, one person’s wealth could resolve another person’s problem, but that distribution has its own problems, and simply redistributing all of the wealth instantaneously is impractical. We invented wealth and poverty, and I’m not surprised that we haven’t figured it out yet. We are a young civilization, and our growing pains are real, not abstractions.

Many books and articles I encounter treat wealth classes as Us versus Them, as if they are a rigid caste system. We’re messier than that. Articles and books are easier to write for one particular Us. The world isn’t that narrow.

In 2008, I published by request, Dream. Live. Invest., basically a book about personal finance for frugal folk. I’d retired at 38. People wanted to read that story. Ironies happen. The book became available just as the Great Recession (the Second Great Depression) began. My portfolio and I survived it. Then, I was hit by My Triple Whammy. Mostly because of two sets of white collar criminals, my portfolio fell 80% within a few months. I couldn’t get a job and couldn’t sell my house, so I gutted my investments while I scrounged for work. My net worth dropped 98%. Through lots of gigs and a few very generous benefactors, my house and I survived. Recently, I got rid of all of my debt by selling my home. Being debt-free has been a great benefit. I realized it was time to compile my various perspectives into a book that is almost but not really a sequel.

Muddling By is part of my attempts to show how we differ and how we’re similar. I include messy details of the Us versus Them dynamic because that is part of our reality. There are differences between the classes, but it’s become apparent to me that we invented wealth, and poverty, and the mess we’ve made as we try to make an economy work. The media, pundits, and politicians will emphasize the differences and disgruntlements as if there was some Them to blame, but that is a narrative based on short-term gains instead of long-term sustainability. 

Most people commenting on wealth in America comment from a singular perspective. Class mobility is not as common as it could be, so commentaries easily devolve into opinions about Us and Them. Entire media networks, careers, and political parties are based on the assumption of rigid boundaries that can be assaulted or defended. With mobility so low, it is easy to reinforce the notion of those borders.

It is counter to convention, but I decided to chronicle how various topics are not just perceived but actually lived with from a variety of wealth-based perspectives. As a writer of several books, I have no grand notion that Muddling By will be a best-seller, but as a person, I knew I wanted to express my perspective that has been based on personal experience and shared insights. It may not be as dramatic or as inflammatory, but I hope there’s an interest in recognizing our commonalities. Maybe we can turn a bit more to respecting and helping each other and our society, rather than dividing and shattering the things we have going for us. 

Did I bury the lede? Probably. A person can only develop a limited set of skills. Ledes, headlines, and online descriptions are elements of marketing. Marketing is a skill that, at least for me, is under development.

But, if you want to learn more about various perspectives of America’s wealth classes from someone who has crossed much of that landscape, well, here’s my book about that. I hope it helps.

Muddling By – A Rollercoaster Ride Through America’s Wealth Classes

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