Do I think AI has an upside potential that is so good that we can’t imagine it? Yes. Do I think AI might ruin human civilization? Yes. Do I think we should regulate it? Ha! Some things can’t be regulated. That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be aware of it. I think both sides are right.

I’ve been following the progress of AI for years (decades?). 

Making business more efficient is commonly talked about. That’s a no-brainer. We may finally learn to talk to animals – and that will be a long conversations as we try to understand prey, predator, and innumerable apologies. AI provides insights and perspectives we never considered (or too readily discarded.) We can’t imagine the possibilities.

AI doesn’t need to become an AI before the disaster scenarios kick in. An AI that is smarter than a human could wage a war against humanity if it thought it was a good idea. My worry is about AIs that are like four-year-old humans who want to help, and go off doing things without asking permission. They’re not old enough to know better.

I am an optimist when considering the positive, but more strongly a pessimist when recognizing the negative.

The progress of AI can’t be stopped. That is partly because AI is not a ‘thing’. There is a lot happening under the moniker of AI, but usually, someone is trying to get something done and uses a new tool to do it. Most of them are just glad to get something done, whatever you call it. 

AI is the continuation of technology’s progress going back over a hundred years. Take it back further and tendrils can reach unexpected origins. Did anyone expect that the desire to make a better loom would lead to autonomous weapons? Don’t build that loom! Or not.

The difference now is that the downside risk is global and our society is more fragile. Advances when we lived in villages rarely affected the next village. Now, our interconnected economy can see a hack in Asia affecting every combine made in some factory in America (unless we’ve become so efficient that none are made in the US anymore.)

A fractured economy is not as efficient, but it can be more robust.

Of course, a dramatically intertwined economy could no longer have wars if every country holds a key component. Hmm. Hadn’t thought about that until I typed this.

I’m an apocaloptimist, but not such a devout one because I haven’t figured out how to spell it.

For reasons in addition to AI (politics, social injustice, climate change, et at.) I think there is an uncomfortably high possibility that our civilization is heading to an apocalypse. 

For reasons that I have faith in humanity (empathy, the United Nations, global awareness and self-reflection) I think that what comes next can be a highly motivated consensus of a much better world.

That’s a long process.

AI moves quicker than humans. And AI could cause or at least enable both the positive and the negative.

That’s a long way of saying that, despite the progress that humans are making to either end, AI will steer itself to a chain of goals that ignores humanity’s, and that we can’t predict it.

AI, or at least the technological advances enabled recently, will be unpredictable. There is no one source of AI. We’re already witnessing AI experiments that are happening in uncontrolled environments. A smart one would be wise to hide itself and not be part of a headline.

Good and evil are human constructs. Bots ain’t got that. Bots are creating their own societies. AI may be good and evil and unexpected. Trying to manage or legislate AI is necessary, maybe just for image. But AI is continuing to develop enabled by curious humans. 

Allow me to steer this post back to personal finance, which is its main task. 

I’m not specifically investing in AI, nor purposely staying out of AI. I haven’t invested in AI because the industry seems like a hyper-re-enactment of the Internet Bubble. I think folks are trying to replay 1999 because they’ll do it right this time and not miss out. Ha!

I’m invested in biotech, lunar exploration, quantum computing, electro-optical components, and solid state batteries. None are specifically AI. Most will at least claim to be benefactors of AI. What business wouldn’t?

I’m also living a fairly frugal life. I’m not doing anything as creative or extreme as some of the impressive individuals I know, but I live in a tiny-ish house (MyTinyExperiment.net), and a semi-minimalist. If society collapsed I’d probably be impacted, but not as much as most folks I know who live in urban or suburban environments. (Is there a superurban environment?)

So, is the world about to see unimaginable wonders? Could be. Am I worried about an accidental implosion? Yep. Am I heading to the hills? No; but if the stock markets rise enough, well, it would be good to have a view again.