I am not a trend setter. I watch trends. They are fascinating insights into people and our culture. But my life is unconventional enough that the trends are usually ‘over there’, what ‘those folks are doing.’ Somehow, I’ve found myself at the front of a series of trends as their recent wave of popularity passes by me: tea, beer, and dancing. Go figure.

I’m a minimalist. I am unconventional. I enjoy exploring ideas. I am familiar with being interested in things others consider odd. Fine. Why live everyone else’s life? Mine keeps me busy enough.

That also means I frequently see trends rise and fade as they influence the crowds, but not my life. I watch them, though, because 1) people are interesting, and 2) there are investment opportunities. People want to spend that much on coffee? Buy SBUX soon after its IPO. Computer animation can be used to create a movie? Yep. Buy PIXR soon after its IPO. But there are trends I saw and missed: Costco, Amazon (because I thought Barnes & Noble would do it better when it was just books), Google and Facebook (because surely the SEC will impose limits to monopolies). In almost fifty years of investing, there have been lots of examples. (Some details in my book, Dream. Invest. Live.)

I think AI is a bubble that will eventually succeed, ala AMZN. I think a lot of political discourse is symptomatic of dissatisfaction that’s wandering around because no policy fits all, yet. I’m watching the trend from male chauvinism to not quite humanism, which is benefiting companies that sell male care products. There was another one, but it slipped past my memory as I managed this typing machine. Oh yeah, the decentralization and efficiency improvements in how we power our civilization is unstoppable, even with governmental antagonism.

But, tea, beer, and dancing? Who cares about them? By chance, I do.

I’ve been a fan of tea since college because it was cheap and easy. I even wrote a book about it, Kettle Pot Cup (a fundraiser for the women who pick tea by hand). 

I’ve been a fan of Guinness stout since college because I couldn’t see through it. There must be flavor in there. Lagers and ales? They look like barely flavored water. (Sorry Bud, Coors, and especially Bud Light and Coors Light.)

I’ve been a fan of dance since (I hadn’t realized this until I started typing this post) college. Couples dancing for fun, not competition. Swing, Latin, waltz, fusion, it’s all good. 

And recently, I’ve seen tea expand beyond Red Rose, Guinness is now a ‘thing’ as people discover flavor, and couples dancing is so busy that I can’t keep up with it. I’m not doing them because someone told me to do them. I’ve done them for decades because I enjoy them. I’ve enjoyed them even when the majority made fun of them. 

Because I enjoy tea, stouts, and dancing, I hadn’t paid attention to the increased attention in them. I simply enjoyed the extra tea shops, the greater selection of brews (though now I tend to the gluten-free ones, another trend), and so many dances that I have to purposely miss some so I can get my chores done.

Tea, beer, and dancing have been around for hundreds or thousands of years. They can still be investments. All can be frugal, but all can get fancy and pricey. Twinings and Guinness may be recognizable names, but there’s room for growth in more boutique options as newbies explore the possibilities. Dance remains random. Except for Arthur Murray Dance Studios, I can’t think of another corporate entity that could be considered an investment, and yet I have had to compile a list of instructors because, for some reason, newbies ask me to find them lessons. Just like with tea and Twinings, beer and Guinness, there’s more to dance than Arthur Murray. Cool.

I use me as an example of how easy it is to overlook opportunities. While many investors can rightly rely on index funds, there are always a few of us who prefer to invest in specific companies. 

There are benefits to trusting yourself. More than ten years ago, one friend was fascinated by a new company but decided to invest in a stock that I and several of our friends had. They bought MVIS (down 98%) instead of TSLA (up 34,930%). They were brighter than the rest of us. Imagine if they’d listened to themself. Imagine if we’d listened to them, but that becomes the conundrum.

I’ve placed my bets (if you consider buying stock in individual companies gambling), or made my investments (if you consider buying stock in small, promising companies is investing in the future). From my amateur research, I think electrification will continue, and that the current batteries are about to be supplanted by the next generation. (SLDP, GMGMF) From my amateur research, I think biotech is more likely to advance by convincing the body to heal the body rather than the current approach which seems to be attacking misbehaving parts of the body. (GERN, LCTX) I suspect AI is a bubble that will dramatically pop, but that quantum computing is going to create a new and massive niche. (QBTS) And I recognize that industry and resource extraction may move off-planet where it won’t damage life on Earth. (LUNR) Which one am I missing? Oh yeah, MVIS with the potential of electro-optics on a chip, a squandered (so far) innovation. (See my semi-annual portfolio review for some details.)

It is all a guessing game, but the guesses become easier when viewed from the inside.

What are you seeing and potentially overlooking? 

Investing is dull? Ha! I wonder what happens next.