(Reid, thanks for inspiring my trip to Better Living Through Coffee in Port Townsend.)

The short story: I bought more GMGMF. The slightly longer story: GMGMF announced a solid-state battery that recharges in 6 minutes, which seems like an idea worth investing in. The longer story: I’m glad I’ve been investing long enough that I know that the closest thing to an absolute is saying that there are no absolutes. It’s all a guess.

If you haven’t heard, or if you’re reading this somewhere outside the region of the Salish Sea, or some time after a series of atmospheric rivers have uprooted much of civilized life in the area, reality can get messy. Rivers have carved new channels regardless of where we want roads and such. Hills are sliding. Valleys are flooded. I’m glad I live near Port Townsend, 115 feet above sea level and far from a river.

The coffeeshop where I might meet a friend, Better Living Through Coffee in Port Townsend, is such an authentic seaside cafe that a view out the window could be seeing through a wave that splashed against its foundation. After about the third hit, most folks felt confident enough in the strength of the glass to sit beside waves that would otherwise knock them over. Whether the building is damaged – well – that’s life in a historic seaside town.

I decided to write about GMGMF’s announcement and to be open about the fact that I bought some more stock, but two people at the next table became more of a story.

They were talking so loudly that it was hard to concentrate on anything else, even as waves bashed the building. One was pontificating about their investing strategy. The other was politely listening and asking questions. Note: Only one of the two asked questions. The other spoke with certainty and authority about how to make money. After about ten minutes, I realized that anyone speaking with that much certainty either has little experience in investing, has always been lucky, is trying to sell something to someone else, thinks they have nothing to learn, or some likely combination of those possibilities.

Maybe it was a quiet client listening to a potential financial adviser – who was talking without a care about the conversation happening in public where there’s no privacy.

And a wave hit the window.

And I saw a connection, or at least a personal lesson.

It may not be apparent, but I tend to disobey one of the central pieces of writing advice I’ve heard: speak in clear tones, without equivocation, be confident, and make it dramatic if possible. I at least intend to include the upside, the downside, and where I think things may settle out in the middle. I know how assumptions can be false, or at least incorrect. I won’t list the times I’ve been wrong based on assumptions I’ve made. This blog has about 15 years of examples. Browse at will.

The waves continued to hit the window. Don’t worry, there won’t be a dramatic moment (as I type) because the window held. Of course, the staff shoved some towels against the bottom because the water was getting through, but hey, we are all warm and dry and could keep doing what we were doing.

Investing includes the possibility of risk. See My Triple Whammy for how assumptions I made about the SEC, the FDA, and my reliance on data led to me losing 80% then 98% of my net worth. I’m feeling much better, now; thank you.

In the short time I listened (whether I wanted to or not), I never heard a moment of caution. Maybe they’re brilliant and their method always works. Maybe, folks who have it don’t need to talk about it. If they’re talking about it, it’s probably because they still need it – or the attention.

People also hear what they want to hear. It is difficult to listen to both sides of a story. MVIS is a great story with great potential, but too many have suffered by the interminably long time its progress has been delayed. (How can they Not make money after having developed a projector that fits in a phone?)

GMGMF has a broad portfolio of products that rely on utilizing graphene. See wikipedia for a description. To many, it is a wonder material that can revolutionize the world, ala plastic (I guess). To most, graphene = huh? Plastic probably sounded irrelevant, too, at the start.

One of GMGMF’s products in development has been a solid-state battery. No lithium-ion. Lithium-ion batteries have enabled electric vehicles and much more. Lithium batteries, however, are politically sensitive, expensive, have acceptable but not phenomal range, and are dangerous because they are hard to extinguish when they catch fire. Entire cargo ships have been lost because a car battery caught fire.

GMGMF’s new battery doesn’t use lithium, so its materials are more readily available, is less prone to fire, can be cheaper, can be smaller – and they’ve made on that can recharge in six minutes. The potential (see, there’s that hesitancy) is that such batteries can be the next generation in batteries that further enables electric vehicles, and a greater adoption of other products, too.

Six minutes. Not an hour, not overnight. Six minutes. Cool. And maybe not six minutes, but ten would be acceptable. Maybe not GMGMF. Sure, they developed this one, but there’s competition, all of which may exceed lithium-ion’s capabilities. Maybe they’ll have a production line in place for 2027, but stay tuned. Maybe. Maybe. Maybe.

But.

I buy stocks in small companies that I think have big potential. I believe, but don’t know, that lithium-ion will eventually be supplanted by something better. This could, could, be it. And then it will get supplanted. So goes technology.

Within my investing strategy, I have a few buffers and constraints. I tend to limit the number of shares I own as a hedge against chasing penny stocks too far. I also tend to limit my initial investment. Those are guidelines. I decided to exceed both to buy a bit more, and may buy more again. In this case, my extra purchases only increase my investment and the number of shares by less than half.

Investing can always be optimized. There are always better stocks, which are only apparent in retrospect. I choose to optimize time, too. It would take time to possibly find a better investment, but here is a technology, company, and stock that I am familiar with. By buying a bit more now, I may make a good enough investment.

Stocks are also not lifetime commitments. I can sell as many of my shares as I want, or not. Maybe next year I’ll sell enough to get back under that arbitrary limit. Maybe I’ll buy more. I don’t have to know today. That’s next year.

I like life around the Salish Sea. The weather is usually temperate, until it isn’t, then it’s dramatic, and hopefully the power stays on and the ground stays stable. I also like the fact that I can’t think of a financial conversation I’ve had where the people were wearing formal wear. Camo and REI are more common choices, even if the wearers aren’t in the military or heading out on a hike.

The seaside is real. Nature tests our assumptions. I’m glad our society has developed strong enough glass that we can blithely ignore its assaults, usually. Nature is also a reminder that assumptions have limits, and our society continues to generate innovations that allow better lives than our ancestors could imagine.

And I’m glad my seat was a few extra feet back from the windows. Assumptions are great, but prudence has a value, too.