As I mentioned recently, once upon a time, I’d post my stock trades on the Motley Fool. I posted that when I bought a bit more LUNR. I had some cash left from a sale of some of my QBTS stock, so I bought some more of another of my holdings, SLDP. I thought about waiting before doing anything else, but SLDP went up over 50% today, so I bought a bit more LUNR, again. And that’s probably enough for now. Probably. Maybe.

OK. That’s chronicled. Sold some QBTS, so I bought some SLDP and some LUNR. That’s a concise summary that hides a lot of details. A writer of biographies could summarize each dead person’s history as, ‘they were born, they lived, and they died.’ That hides a lot of details.

Here are some details.

QBTS is building quantum computers. I considered it a risky investment that may take years to become profitable, but if they succeeded, the profits could be impressive. The product could also be as positive and disruptive as something like microchips or the transistor. I was wrong. This blog contains descriptions of some of that success. Currently, QBTS is up more than 2,700% in the most recent twelve months. I sold a bit to cover my initial investment. Then I sold a bit to realize a profit. The rest is unrealized profit, aka owning the other shares for a while longer, possibly much longer.

LUNR is developing a space-based business that is concentrating on lunar missions. I’ll copy and paste a bit of the previous paragraph. “I considered it a risky investment that may take years to become profitable, but if they succeeded, the profits could be impressive. The product could also be as positive and disruptive…”, but instead of chips, I considered LUNR to be more akin to SpaceX. LUNR would be smaller because it mostly works on lunar products and services, while Space X is space in general. It is only up >33% in the previous twelve months, but the historical average is more like 7% to 10%, so, good. And, their failures (like landers falling over) distract people from their successes (being paid for 85% mission success.) Good. Don’t fall over so much. And then they announced a major purchase of a satellite manufacturer, which broadens their business. Good. Glad I bought a bit more.

SLDP builds solid-state batteries. Skipping the technical jargon, Solid-state batteries can be the next generation of batteries past Lithium-ion batteries, which were preceded by alkaline batteries, which were preceded by batteries that couldn’t hold a charge for very long. Next-generation tech appeals to me, especially when it can charge more quickly, hold more power, use materials that are easier to find and mine, and are safer. For someone like me, who remembers pre-alkaline batteries, the potential looks enormous. And, as I mentioned above, “I considered it a risky investment that may take years to become profitable, but if they succeeded, the profits could be impressive. The product could also be as positive and disruptive…” Like. Oh, and SLDP has been chosen by Samsung and BMW to develop a prototype car. The stock is up ~60% in the most recent five trading days, and is up more than 600% since this time last year. Timing? Yes. Luck? Also yes.

Note a common thread. “I considered it a risky investment that may take years to become profitable, but if they succeeded, the profits could be impressive. The product could also be as positive and disruptive…” That is not a guarantee. I have three stocks that fit that description but not those results – so far. I’ve held shares of MVIS, GERN, and now LCTX since circa 2000. MVIS, down more than 96%. GERN, down more than 84%. LCTX, down more than 45%. I’ve lost more than that because those are estimates from historical data on Google, not the exact prices I purchased them at. 

Timing. Yes. Luck? Also yes.

I buy for the long term because, mathematically in my opinion, the stock market is chaotic. It can’t be accurately predicted. Success is anticipated and discussed, and frequently delayed. Failure is rarely sudden and final, and usually relegated to a long list of prudent business considerations. Few of my stocks have lost 100%, though the precise point is moot when the loss is over 90%. Few of my stocks have gained over 100%, though some rise thousands of percent. The gains have countered the losses, though the balancing act had years of bad bounces. (See My Triple Whammy.)

Luck.

Sometimes when I’ve discussed bad luck, I’ve been judged as victimizing my story.

Sometimes when I’ve discussed good luck, I’ve been branded as not giving myself enough credit.

I’m me. I’m reasonably intelligent. I’m also reasonably self-aware. I will give myself credit for my skills and acknowledge my faults, but I will also note that luck, good and bad, has had an influence that was out of my control. This isn’t a statement of victimization or giving myself credit as much as acknowledging that luck has an influence, too. 

I hope I made that point implicitly and explicitly in my book, Muddling By. I’ve been middle-class, a millionaire, and basically muddling by. In retrospect, it is easy to say I should’ve done this or that, but that’s life. In a capitalistic society, it is easy to equate net worth with personal value. Spout a number and an easy categorization shortens conversational introductions. I’ve been in each category, and in retrospect it has been interesting to see me being categorized – and then to realize it is happening to all of us.
Luck impacts wealth, positive and negative, and even though we say we can make luck, random chance happens too.

Hmm. Didn’t expect this post to get here, but here it is. I guess that’s a bit of luck.

Pardon me as I pause my typing to consider that.

(pause)

(breathe)

OK.

These times are dynamic. I’ll skip the politics, except to say that I vote and to thank everyone who votes. If you don’t vote, well, you probably aren’t reading blog posts about personal finance and community. Personal finance is a necessity in this society. Some use it to accumulate wealth. I use it to finance a personal life, and to help others as I can. I research companies more than research stocks, because core business products and services are the basis of a company’s worth. But they, like me, live within a world of plans and luck. Sometimes great ideas fail, regardless of their inherent value. Some ideas appear great because, by luck, they made lots of money. I am sure there is no perfect procedure for making profit, both for companies and people, but we do our best; and I do think doing my best is recognizing that luck plays a role. Sometimes, that luck is positive, and can appear random, and can appear planned. I’ll let the philosophers debate the possibilities. In the meantime, I’ll continue investing, watching the news, researching, voting, – and buying lottery tickets. Hey, I could really lucky in a really good way.